Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The full moon was cheesier than ever and a sly breeze played tag on the narrow alleys of a little village called Shamville. It was a particularly chilly night and the villagers hurried to close their window blinds and lock their doors before diving under thick woollen blankets.

In the past months, bad omens had been seen, though little of all this, of course, reached the ears of ordinary townsfolk. But even the deafest and most stay-at-home began to hear queer tales of green sunsets, sudden extinction of dolphins and barley fields growing fully decorated Christmas Trees in July. No one knew what it meant, but clearly it didn't bode well.

A black cat crossed a road, ran under a ladder thirteen times and disappeared into shadows.


***

Welcome to Werewolf XIII!

Gameplay: The game consists of two different phases: Night and Day. Nights and Days begin at 9:00 pm. GMT, thus lasting 24 hours, each.


Night

During night, the Werewolves PM with each other and choose one Villager to kill.
The Seer chooses one Villager to dream about.
The Hunter chooses one Villager to kill if they die during the Night.
The Ranger chooses one Villager to protect from the wolves.

These Villagers then PM their choices to me.


Day

The Villagers will wake up and (usually) discover one of their own dead. The Villagers must publicly discuss their suspicions in order to find out, who the wolves are. Eventually villagers start to cast votes for who they feel is a werewolf and must be lynched. Votes are irretractable and are cast by bolding a name with a ++ sign before it, all in CAPITALS and on a separate line. Like this:

++DANCING SPAWN

If you don't vote like this and I end up lynching a wrong villager because I didn't see your vote... well, just blame yourself, dear.

At the end of the Day the player with the most votes is lynched and their secret role is revealed.


Winning

The Villagers win if they kill all of the Werewolves.
The Werewolves win if they kill enough villagers so that their numbers are equal.


Roles

Ordinary Villagers- try to find out, who the Wolves are and lynch them by Day.

Werewolves- choose one person to kill every Night by PMing one another and discussing their strategies. Werewolves may not PM each other during the Day.

Seer- chooses one person to Dream about each Night. The role of this person is then revealed to them. The Cursed will be seen as an Ordinary Villager unless they have become a Wolf (then the Cursed will be seen as a lycan).

Hunter- chooses every night one Villager to die with them if they are killed by the Wolves. If the Hunter is lynched by Day, they can choose a new villager to die with them, who is then killed automatically.

Ranger- chooses one fellow Villager to protect every night. If that player is the Werewolf victim, they survive and there is no death that night. The Ranger may not protect the same person twice in a row.

Cursed- doesn’t know that they are cursed. If the Cursed is killed by Werewolves, they become a Werewolf and are introduced to their new team mates. The Seer will see the Cursed as an Ordinary Villager unless they have already become a wolf.


Other stuff

The players will be told, if the Ranger is successful or if the Wolves manage to get an extra lycan in their team.

Mass lynchings: One shalt be the number thou shalt lynch, and the number of the lynchees shalt be one... or two, if you must. Three shalt thou not lynch, neither lynch four. Five is right out!

Do not edit your posts, please. Double posting is perfectly acceptable here.

If I use players' names in my narrations, they are not "hidden clues" or anything.

You can say you're a villager/seer/werewolf, etc. all you want, but you are not allowed to post anything that would automatically prove your claim (like PMs and such).

Once you are killed in a werewolf game you should no longer post in this thread, or the Werewolf I thread, or communicate with players that are still alive in the game. You're dead. Dead people tell no tales.

Players may not PM one another about the game; all discussion must be open. The exceptions are the Werewolves, who may only PM with each other during Night.

Players should not refer to the game as a game and mention past Villages in their posts. There are plenty of other ways to give reasons for a theory than say "In Game III..."

If you have any questions, either PM me or ask them in the Werewolf 1 thread, please.

Please remember to stay invisible.


Players:

1. Anguirel - jester
2. Bergil - door-to-door salesman
3. Celuien - luthier
4. Eonwe - militiaman
5. Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
6. Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
7. Kath - writer
8. Kitanna - goat herder
9. Kuruharan - local lorekeeper
10. Lalaith - goosegirl
11. littlemanpoet - village undertaker
12. Meneltarmacil - dinosaur researcher/ fossil hunter
13. tar-ancalime - charlatan
14. WaynetheGoblin - goldsmith
15. Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

We have:
3 Werewolves
1 Seer
1 Hunter
1 Ranger
1 Cursed
8 Ordinary Villagers

And so it begins...

It is now Night 1. Wolves may PM with each other but I need a name only from the Seer. The Night ends on Sunday at 9:00 pm. GMT.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

"Good morn', oh dreadful day"



When the Village People woke up at the break of dawn, they immediately sensed that everything wasn't quite right. One by one they got up and gathered together to gossip about their bad premonitions. As a meritorious herder Kitanna quickly counted the town's residents, who flocked on the village square. "Fifteen. One is missing", she said. "Where's Spawn?"

Indeed, dancing spawn of ungoliant, Shamville's fisherwoman, was nowhere to be seen. As considerate and caring people the whole group strolled to Spawn's little cabin to check if she was all right (and maybe buy a fresh perch or two). With years' experience Bergil knocked on the door.

*knock, knock*

"Who's there?"

"It's B... Oh, Anguirel! Shut up!" Bergil snapped at the town's jester, who was laughing up his sleeve. "That wasn't funny."

When the villagers didn't hear an answer from the house, they tried the door handle. The door creaked on its hinges as it opened and the prying neighbours swarmed into a small living room. On a little table, they saw a note. "Here may be found the last words of dancing spawn of ungoliant", Kath read out loud. "There are three werewolves running around Shamville! The lycans are Aaauuuggghhh."

"What?"

"The lycans are Aaauuuggghhh", Kath repeated in bewilderment.

"What is that?" WaynetheGoblin wondered.

"She must have died while writing it", Glirdan whimpered.

"Oh, come on!" snorted Eonwe.

"Well, that's what it says", Kath replied.

"Look, if she was dying, she wouldn't have bothered to write 'Aaaauuuugggghhhh'. She'd just say it", Meneltarmacil groaned.

"Maybe she was dictating it", Wilwarin538 proposed helpfully.

"Oh shut up", sighed tar-ancalime, and rolled her eyes.

"Well does it say anything else?" littlemanpoet inquired.

"No, just 'Aaauuuggghhh'", answered Firefoot who tried to peek the note over Kath's shoulder.

"Whooooouuuaaaa!" Celuien suggested.

"No, no, no, it's 'Aaaauuuggghhh' from the back of the throat", corrected Kuruharan.

"No, I mean, 'Whoooouuuaaaa' as in surprise and alarm", Celuien clarified.

"Oh, you mean like 'AAAHH'" helped Lalaith.

"Yes, that's it. AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!"

And with the deafening high C that escaped from Celuien's lungs and shattered every window screen within a mile, the villagers turned around to face a horrible sight. They had finally found dancing spawn, who was mangled, strangled and tangled in fishing nets that hung on the wall. She looked mostly like a travesty of a giant spider caught on her own web. For some reason the villagers weren't very keen to buy fish anymore, and they calmly left the house knocking furnitures out of their way, and it is said that the dustcloud did not settle for many days after.


Living:
Anguirel - jester
Bergil - door-to-door salesman
Celuien - luthier
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Kath - writer
Kitanna - goat herder
Kuruharan - local lorekeeper
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
Meneltarmacil - dinosaur researcher/ fossil hunter
tar-ancalime - charlatan
WaynetheGoblin - goldsmith
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1

Score:
Villagers: 15
Wolves: 3

It is now Day 1.
Wolves, stop PMing, please. Villagers, you may start discussing. Have fun!
The Day ends in 24 hours at 9:00 pm. GMT.

[Anguirel]

A frightfully fishy situation, you have to admit.

Ah well. dancing spawn will always have a special plaice in my heart. Cod rest her sole.

[Meneltarmacil]

This is really not looking good for the village. And that's a major understatement.

We are dealing with werewolves here, and werewolves are smart creatures. They'll likely not be the ones in the open acting suspicious. Nor will they likely be really quiet. It's the ones in the middle we ought to watch out for, those who offer their comments every now and then, but just not enough to be useful. Unless we're dealing with extremely stupid or extremely smart wolves, I think those types of people are worth keeping an eye on.

Just be glad they're not were-tyrannosaurs.

[Anguirel]

Ho blimming ho. Watch it mate, I'm the jester in town. Try and take my mantle and who knows what might happen to you...

[Lalaith]

There's a time and place for such punning, Sir Jester. You gabble like some of my more foolish charges.
But now, we must try to react as best we can to the tragedy that has hit our village. These lycans won't stop at this. I don't know when the rest of us will get here, but lets all try to talk as much as we can. Wolves can hide better in silence.

[Anguirel]

Did you hear about the town that got attacked by werewolves?

No? All the inhabitants were devoured.

Not funny? What do you mean? Oh, you thought that one was a joke? By Eru, even fools speak seriously amidst events like these...

For the moment, I will second Little Miss Goosey Goosey Gander. We need to keep ourselves wrapped in earnest debate, lynching each other, while around us our comrades drop like flies. A well-tried and tested strategy, though some have doubted its efficacy...

[Lalaith]

Well if you, or anyone else for that matter, has any better alternative plans, feel free to share....

[Anguirel]

If I had a better plan, dear Goosey, would I recommend such a bad one?

[Celuien]

AHHHHHHHH. Hard times are upon us, villagers of Shamville. Harder times than when you wouldn't buy my fiddles and lutes and I nearly went out of business. My life has been spent in the carving of wood into works of art with voices of their own, not in pursuit of foul beasts. But it seems that is the task Fate has dealt us all.

Here's a plan. Back when I was a small lass, my gaffer had a pet dog. (Patience, patience, there is a point to this story.) Whenever I would sing a high note or squeak out a tune on my fiddle, the dog would howl. Nearly drove me out of my mind. Wolves are pretty close to dogs. Maybe if I let out a high C, the wolves would be like Huan Jr. and howl too, giving away their identities.

Oh, wait. I already sang my high C and the wolves didn't emit a single note. I guess that won't work. So I don't have any better plan for the moment than the previous suggestion to speak out in debate.

[Firefoot]

My, what a horrible village I have come across in these travels of mine! Werewolves! And this place was reputed to be a peaceful sort of village, where one might rest. Apparently not.

I'm not sure that just talking a lot will flush out the werewolves. Talk a lot, but actually say something, I say! It would be extremely easy for wolves to hide in a mass of insubstance and chattiness. Force them to come out with substance; then perhaps we can catch their blunders.

[littlemanpoet]

I shall always respond to one post at a time, and in that way you will be able to see my progress in keeping up with the conversations.

*LMP stops just outside Spawn's fishercabin, and knowing his duty, he goes back into the cabin, disentangles the poor lady from the net mess, and carries the mangled corpse to his mortuary, where he spends time talking to the dead body as he prepares it for burial.*

[Eonwe]

well, well, i have nothing to say. except please explain your various theories and stuff, that way i know what your talking about and can follow the arguments. and pass my own judgement on them and you. :p

day one is always slow...

[Kath]

Well that little episode this morning put me right off writing. It's hard to create a best-seller when every third line all you can think is "Aaauuuggghhh". So please let's get these dratted creatures so I can finish my book! I promise to give you all a free copy if we do.

Aaanyway I suppose we have to start trying to figure out which three members of our little community are in fact werewolves. So, using the time honoured tradition of the random picking of names I would like to hear from:
Firefoot
Lalaith
wilwa

No offense meant people you just happen to be the 5th, 10th and 15th names on the list. And we have to start somewhere - right?

[littlemanpoet]

We need to keep ourselves wrapped in earnest debate, lynching each other, while around us our comrades drop like flies. A well-tried and tested strategy, though some have doubted its efficacy...And I shall do my part, preparing and burying the dropped flies with due reverence, speaking overwrought Jamesian at times, mayhap, and all the while pondering the words of my fellow villagers for clues to foul villainy whilst talking to and listening to the dead. Not that they speak back to me, but one of my profession must find comfort where one may.

*LMP thoroughly disentangles the corpse, straightening every bent limb, washing tear and blood stained face, molding lips to renewed (and less smelly) comeliness, speaking to the dead.*

Who are the dastardly villains who so mangled you? Is there some sign in the words I've overheard already? Is our jester hiding beneath a string of words? Our fossil hunter preaching to the proverbial choir to hide his misdeeds? Our goosegirl scolding our jester to hide her own laid egg of vehemence?

*The corpse does not respond as LMP continues his careful work.*

[Meneltarmacil]

Speaking of random names, my 20-sided die has just come up with a 3. That happens to be Celuien's number. Celuien does not seem to have said anything extremely helpful yet, but she hasn't acted like a wolf either. Interesting that Lalaith told everybody to talk as much as possible, an idea that I agree would be helpful, however, could she be trying to hint that that's what her fellow wolves should be doing? As yet, however, nobody jumps out at me as being a wolf.

*goes back to chiseling some rock off a Stegosaurus spike*

EDIT: cross-posted with LMP

[Lalaith]

No offence taken, Kath my dear. Both Firefoot and I have already spoken, but our daydreamer is not yet with us, it seems. I don't know what else you would like to hear from me at this stage. I can - and will - tell you that I'm not a wolf, but I can't expect you to believe me, any more than I would you.
I will also reveal, as it is useful to announce absences, that it is now goosegirl's bedtime. I will rejoin the debate in around nine hours time.

[Eonwe]

Interesting that Lalaith told everybody to talk as much as possible, an idea that I agree would be helpful, however, could she be trying to hint that that's what her fellow wolves should be doing?

well, as they just had 24 hours to pm about stratgy, either they are very lazy, or the answer is no. ;)

[Kath]

I don't know what else you would like to hear from me at this stage.
Nothing yet really, just to know you're around I suppose. I have a slight problem now though in the form of Menel, I had forgotten he was here and I believe I did once vow never to trust him again. Well, benefit of the doubt should be given I suppose but it's going against a lot of my beliefs.

[Kuruharan]

Hmm...Anguirel is acting strangely.

Good. That's normal. Don't know if there is anything to discern from that.

Eonwe is saying that he will say nothing substantive. At the moment, I can't really blame him. There isn't a whole lot substantive to say.

littlemanpoet is developing some strange habits.

Most everyone else seems interested in running a numbers racket.

That is not so good. We will end up arguing about random assignment and probability and it would be easy for a wolf to avoid detection if we spend our time doing that.

[Kath]

Nah. We're all just picking any old person, doesn't matter how, it's just to generate some conversation. Can't find wolvish slip ups if there's no one talking!

[Celuien]

I only wish I had something more helpful say at this point. I'm not really expecting anyone to be amazingly helpful this early, as we have nothing to go on yet. I know that I can't garner enough information to suggest theories this early. But I assure you, once things start moving, I'll analyze to the best of my abilities.

And here's a start. So far, no one really looks suspicious at all. In order of posts:

Anguirel - even though this is a sad day for us, I can't expect a jester to stop jesting. Nothing strange there.
Menel - makes a good general suggestion for whom we should be watching. A suggestion with which I agree.
Lalaith - scolds Ang for punnery and urges everyone to be vocal. A reasonable strategy, as long as innocents are careful not to get into duels with each other and miss wolves as a result.
Me - relates story of my gaffer's dog and agrees with suggested strategy. Admittedly, not particularly helpful at this point. But I prefer to watch, collect information, and deliberate before making drastic moves.
Firefoot - refines strategy with warning against chattiness.
lmp - says that he'll be responding to posts in order. Not all that helpful right off either, seems to be working on gathering data.
Eonwe - request for explanations of theories. Not helpful, but nothing wolvish there.
Kath - randomly selects names. A reasonable way to generate debate.

Still awaiting the arrival of the rest of the village.

EDIT: cross-posted with Kuru, Kath and Eonwe. Slow typing is annoying.

[Eonwe]

the Day One Disorder has always manifested itself in symptoms ranging from lack of conversation, lack of substance, to lack of evidence, and so shall it ever be, unfurtunately. the only treatment that my research has shown to have any amount of effectiveness in correcting teh disorder is that of plunging into random accusations, culminating in a random vote.

edit cross posted with Celuien, and

hmmm, about this helpful business...for myself, i am just putting in time, so to speak. talk of collecting data, forming theories and opinions, and being helpful, not to mention rating helpfulness, seems a little bit useless.

[Kuruharan]

Can't find wolvish slip ups if there's no one talking!

That is something I've wondered about from time to time. What would happen if people said as little as possible on DAY ONE and then just voted. We might be able to pick up a few tells or force the wolves out in the open because they think they could pick off somebody. Unfortunately, this would be at least as open to manipulation as any other opening strategy. They would probably just vote for different people they hoped wouldn't get hung (which is potentially what they will do anyway).

DAY ONEs are just bad all the way around.

[Kitanna]

I take a break from paper writing to find this sad situation in Shamville. I always liked Spawn. She was so kind to me and my goats.
But I can't dwell on our dearly deceased.

I can see though that something that keeps coming up is Lalaith's suggest for more talking. Firefoot and Kuru both seem against it. They want posts with meaning that will help the village, not just tons of talking and nothing to it. And I agree completely.

What would happen if people said as little as possible on DAY ONE and then just voted. We might be able to pick up a few tells or force the wolves out in the open because they think they could pick off somebody. Unfortunately, this would be at least as open to manipulation as any other opening strategy. They would probably just vote for different people they hoped wouldn't get hung (which is potentially what they will do anyway).

That is quite interesting, but I see a few problems with it. If almost nothing was sad and no hints dropped here or there and at the end of day all the villagers just voted at random, well I think it is possible that no single villager would get more than one vote. And if everyone voted for a completely different villager what would that really tell us? With complete silence on DAY 1, well, I think that could be as bad as too much chatiness. I must say that would be an interesting plan though, but I really can't see it helping the village.

That's really all I have to say right now. Hopefully I can be back in a few hours with more to add.

[tar-ancalime]

Oh, wait. I already sang my high C and the wolves didn't emit a single note. I guess that won't work. So I don't have any better plan for the moment than the previous suggestion to speak out in debate.

If it's high pitch you crave, I urge you to try my enchanted whistle. Handmade of pure lithuanium, mined from a mountain near Srobrocznya, winked at by jackals, and guaranteed to send shivers up the spine of any cani--er, lycan. This whistle, of course, is worth twice its weight in gold, but as things do seem to be getting a little tense around here I'll allow you to have a free tootle.

As for the rest of you, I'm hard at work concocting an anti-Wolf ointment. Crackerjack stuff, and as always guar-an-teed.

I'm as dedicated as anyone to rooting out these lycans, and Shamville's wish is my command.

[Bergil]

in the past, Glirdan hasn't been trustworthy. he's been "forgetting" to hive Michael Jackson his nose back for decades.

[wilwarin538]

Wolves? Oh my! And so little to go on. I suppose rondomness is all we have today.

I notice I've already shown up on a list. Just one question Kath, why did you decide to skip by fives? I have a little theory about your choice of that number. There are 15 villagers in this here town, and three wolves. 15 divided by 3 is 5, which is the number you chose.

Interesting.

Ok so I can't really use that as evidence, but I'm trying. ;)

All the villagers and my random theories:

Anguirel - jesters are creepy, im guessing wolves are creepy also, coincidence? I think not
Bergil - door-to-door salesmans are creepy, another coincidence? doubt it
Celuien - a luthier, hmmm, well a mandolin was used as a very violent weapon against a cousin of mine, and Celuin repairs these horrible things, terrible
Eonwe - militiaman, well I believe the militia has somthing to do with weapons, that should speak for itself
Firefoot - hmmmm, this trouble starts when she comes along. the dog? probably a long lost cousin of hers
Glirdan - undead? aren't we all? stealing micheal jackson's nose? probably clawed it right off of him
Kath - the lycan who wrote down spawns last words perhaps?
Kitanna - probably herds her goats right on in to her mouth
Kuruharan - claims to have a lot of information, about his fellow lycans!!!!
Lalaith - see kitanna, sub in goose for goat
littlemanpoet - perhaps he's losing buissiness? needs to fill up that grave yard of his perhaps?
Meneltarmacil - maybe geting tiered of those dinosaur bones, wants a different kind of bone to examine?
tar-ancalime - a charaltan is a deceiver, she's making us think she's innocent, when she's probably not
WaynetheGoblin - they use hammers, hard hammers, can easily be turned into a weapon
Wilwarin538 - as innocent as the wind dreavin snow

Take from this what you will.

I'll just finish with sayng that we need to defeat these wolves and quick.

crossposted with kitanna, tar and bergil

[Firefoot]

At this point, I really don't see anything more than idle, meaningless suspicions and some strategy speculation. There really isn't anything to go on - based on what people have posted, I could pretty easily construe any one of you to be innocent or guilty.

It's like people have said. Day 1 is horrible that way. You have to hope that a wolf slips up and/or you get lucky. But a word of caution: don't just vote randomly (as in, drawing a number out of a hat). This leaves no record that means anything. Have some kind of reason for voting the way you do, even if it is a really horrible reason. The voting records will mean more that way.

[Glirdan]

Oh me oh my!!! Another person to come join me once I go back to my watery grave beside Micheal Jackson, after I cut his nose off with my knife.

I cannot believe something like this could happen to such a wonderful person.

Here's a completely random list of completely random accusations:

Anguirel - jesters are funny in a creepy sort of way. i don't know what to think about him
Bergil - door-to-door salesman hey? I wonder if it's just an excuse to get into people's houses at night
Celuien - I can't draw any suspicions of Celuien but I will be keeping my on Celuien
Eonwe - militiaman, I trust him just because of it, yet not entirely. He's not as suspicious as others
Firefoot - a traveller hey? Convenient how the trouble starts as soon as he gets here
Glirdan - Well, what can I say except that I'm innocent?
Kath - can't think that she's supsicious yet I'm not sure. Keeping my on her.
Kitanna - I don't like goats. It the fault of a goat that I'm dead. The stupid thing spit into my eye which made me fall off the cliff into the water after I cut off Micheal's nose and then he tripped over a rock and fell in.
Kuruharan - a master of lore hey? perhaps a little to much lore for her own good?
Lalaith - geese are cute!! I like geese. Lalaith isn't as suspicious as much as others are, but still keeping eye on her
littlemanpoet - i don't trust him. He works in a grave. He might want to kill people to fill in those empty graves of his
Meneltarmacil - an archeo-who? What ever it is, I don't like it.
tar-ancalime - don't know what to think of tar. Definetly deserves keeping an eye on.
WaynetheGoblin - hammers you say? hmmm...I wonder. Definetly keeping my eye on him
Wilwarin538 - she daydreams by day, and turns into a fuzzy little animal by night. Don't trust her

That's all I have to say for now.

PS: I'll be posting my vote soon because of the time difference.

[Celuien]

If it's high pitch you crave, I urge you to try my enchanted whistle. Handmade of pure lithuanium, mined from a mountain near Srobrocznya, winked at by jackals, and guaranteed to send shivers up the spine of any cani--er, lycan. This whistle, of course, is worth twice its weight in gold, but as things do seem to be getting a little tense around here I'll allow you to have a free tootle.

I think I'll have to pass on that whistle. I'm still upset over those planing knives you sold me. Solid steel? More like aluminum foil over clay. They broke the first time I tried them.

With regard to the task at hand, I still see nothing to go on, since no one appears suspicious yet.

I won't be making any random accusations today. I'm a craftsperson, and I work slowly and deliberatively, perfecting my instruments over years. So it goes against the grain for me to say anything rashly. Though, unfortunately, I fear my choice is still bound to be incorrect. Such is the grim arena of day one.

Finally, I will be at the shop from 9 to 5 EST during the week, so my votes will have to come over lunch (about three or four hours before the deadline).

It's bedtime for your local luthier. I'll return in a few hours.

[Meneltarmacil]

I still cannot find anything useful, as it is the first Day and all we have to go on are suspicious statements that are probably meaningless anyway. Nevertheless, I notice two odd things:

Lalaith believes we should all talk a lot.
Kuruharan wonders about keeping silent.

One of these two may be up to something. I'm more inclined to suspect Kuru based on his statement, but the tactic may be a little too wolfish to seriously say he's a wolf. As for Lalaith, I've mentioned her already.

Of course, neither one may be a wolf, as statements like these could just be the honest suggestions of innocent villagers.

EDIT:
By the way, I'll be busy excavating a brachiosaur I found a few miles away from about 7 AM-2:30 PM EDT during the week, making me unavailable for comment during that time.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Everything is completly random today. I dont suspecect anyone but i will come back tommorrow and say my suspisuns that is all.

[Bergil]

++Wilwarin538

those statments did not take 33 minuites to type.

[littlemanpoet]

. Talk a lot, but actually say something, I say! It would be extremely easy for wolves to hide in a mass of insubstance and chattiness. Force them to come out with substance; then perhaps we can catch their blunders.
Does our luthier attempt to distract us from her guilt with stories from the past? Our traveller who has a dog has said the most useful thing so far. Speak with substance, not just much talk, for lack of substance will stand out the clearer. Yes, that is a good idea.

*LMP takes leave of the corpse and fetches from the passed's cabin the best gown he can find.*

[littlemanpoet]

Well, since I'm playing catch-up, I guess I'll respond to a lot of folks at once until one stands out in some way.

*LMP talks to the corpse* Our militiaman begs of the rest of us to speak plainly. Is that not wise, my dear Spawn? Yes, it seems so to me too. *LMP changes corpse into best gown* You noticed, I suppose, that our writer has randomly accused three of us. Tell me, is she onto something, or is she doing a 'morm', may he rest in peace, to try to throw us off her own guilt? *LMP combs the long shiny tresses, still growing, into a cloud about the head of the corpse* Our goat herd has finally spoken. He speaks wisely as well, but says nothing a wolf would not say. Should I look harder at him? Did I see you blink ever so slightly? No? I didn't think so, but thought I'd ask. *LMP lays out the corpse on the presentation dais in the front room* You know, Spawn, in your honor, maybe I suppose I could throw out a plan, although it probably won't be used, but it may garner revealing conversation so that we can catch your nemesis out. *LMP checks for any last sign of dirt or blemish, and finding none, is satisfied with his work, and goes outside.*

The corpse is prepared for viewing! Pay your respects!

Having read as far as post #24 and no further, I have a plan. We could vote for a leader who would be given our confidence for the remainder of the day, allow that person to tell us for whom to cast our vote; if we lynch a werewolf, this person is a likely known innocent and may receive our vote for the following day. If not, said person must defend his or her choice or be lynched. What say you? I do of course doubt that the plan will be followed, but I thought I'd throw it out there to see what you esteemed (well most of you) villagers say.

[littlemanpoet]

That is something I've wondered about from time to time. What would happen if people said as little as possible on DAY ONE and then just voted. We might be able to pick up a few tells or force the wolves out in the open because they think they could pick off somebody. Unfortunately, this would be at least as open to manipulation as any other opening strategy. They would probably just vote for different people they hoped wouldn't get hung (which is potentially what they will do anyway).

DAY ONEs are just bad all the way around.
Your proposed plan lends credence to your presumed innocence, but I will not completely leave off questioning you, good sir. Um, it's hanged, not hung, by the way, my good man. To, shall we say, unpack my plan, there being 12 innocents and only 3 wolves, the innocents will out-vote the innocents in choosing the proposed leader; on the other hand, the wolves could hide amongst these votes as easily as those cast for lynching. But it does have the benefit of giving us two voting sessions per Day instead of just one, providing twice as much evidence per Day.

[Eonwe]

hmm well there are a couple situations that arrise from your said plan, LMP.:

we could pick an innocent to lead us, which would yeild two resolts:

1) lynching of a wolf. that wold be good and our leader would be praised.
2) lynchin of an innocent. that would be bad, not only because we killed an innocent, but because we now cast suspicion on yet annother innocent. not to mention we wouldn't get anything as way of a trail.

or we could pick a wolf to lead us, also yeilding two results:

1) the wolf chooses to lynch a wolf. that is good and bad. we kill a wolf, but clear a wolf as well.
2) he lynches an innocent. good because we would suspet him.

all in all, i think it could be a worthy plan. but we should use it later on. and don't ellect me as leader, either. :D

[Glirdan]

Yes, very good plan there Lmp. Except for one thing, you are now not so innocent in my eyes. Could you be using this plan of yours to be a helpful innocent who's trying to catch a Wolf? Or do you have a hairy little secret that you're trying to hide under that plan? By the looks of things, the second option seems more possible than the first. You are now more suspicious in my eyes. I'm definetly keeping my eye on you.

And now I'm keeping an eye on Eonwe. I know I said I trust you, but now I'm not so sure. You could be an innocent thinking that Lmp's plan is good and that we should follow it. Or you could be his fellow Wolf helping him out in his scheme to lynch innocents. I think the first option is probably more correct but I"m still going to keep my eye on you.

Bergil, exactly why did you vote for Wilwa? Is it completely random? Or is your reasoning behind it because of that which you posted? Your another that I'm going to watch carefully.

So my suspicion list is as follows:

Lmp
Eonwe
Bergil

Lmp seems most guilty in my eyes and I will probably vote for him unless something new arises.

[littlemanpoet]

hmm well there are a couple situations that arrise from your said plan, LMP.:

we could pick an innocent to lead us, which would yeild two resolts:

1) lynching of a wolf. that wold be good and our leader would be praised.
2) lynchin of an innocent. that would be bad, not only because we killed an innocent, but because we now cast suspicion on yet annother innocent. not to mention we wouldn't get anything as way of a trail.

or we could pick a wolf to lead us, also yeilding two results:

1) the wolf chooses to lynch a wolf. that is good and bad. we kill a wolf, but clear a wolf as well.
2) he lynches an innocent. good because we would suspet him.

all in all, i think it could be a worthy plan. but we should use it later on. and don't ellect me as leader, either. :D

You analysis, good sir, is quite on target. And having read it, I must say that you have unveiled a fatal flaw in it, unless you can convince me otherwise. That fatal flaw is none other than the wolf leader choosing to lynch a wolf, thus more or less clearing self of suspicion. Of course, 'tis not a fatal flaw if we all go in realizing that a wolf may just be forced by the plan to pick a fellow wolf for lynching; but the question is, would a wolf do such a thing so early in the game? The late and dear departed Fea might, but she is no longer with us, gods rest her soul, big as its head was. All that to say, maybe it is therefore not such a fatal flaw, and still gives us two votes per Day rather than just one. More opinions?

Of course, the plan's merit has already been a little washed out for toDay with Bergil's early vote. So early! That is, of course, suspicious, though he gives a reason; but his reason has holes, if you know what I mean; after all, everyone knew each other's professions before Spawn's death; making his supposed reason mere empty air.

[Meneltarmacil]

Personally, I'm not for this whole "choose a leader" plan. It would

A: give a wolf more of a chance to influence us if we choose him/her as our leader
B: cause us to quickly lynch him/her if he/she turns out to be wrong. Good if the leader is a wolf, bad if the leader is just a misguided innocent, really bad if the leader is a gifted.

Basically, we're likely giving someone who really doesn't have much more knowledge than anyone else the power over the vote. The only way I think this would work is if that particular villager happens to be the Seer. In any case, however, making somebody the leader is probably the same as sticking an "EAT ME" sign on his/her back, or, if he/she survives the Night, a "LYNCH ME" one.

We have to work together if we're going to solve this. Putting all the power into one person's hands is probably not a good idea, unless that person is a total genius or the Seer.

[littlemanpoet]

Yes, very good plan there Lmp. Except for one thing, you are now not so innocent in my eyes. Your knife of reasoning is double edged, good sir. Nevertheless, I'm glad to be suspected at least a little bit. Maybe I won't die so early in this process now, and someone will be available to properly care for the remains of the dead.

So my suspicion list is as follows:

Lmp
Eonwe
Bergil

Lmp seems most guilty in my eyes and I will probably vote for him unless something new arises.

You, in turn, my seeming fellow innocent, have proven quite quick to pounce, which suggests to me that you are either guileless or extremely full of guile, the latter of which suggests lycanthrope. So you are hoist with your own pitard. That is, by declaring me so suspicious, you have raised suspicion upon yourself. Let my esteemed fellow villagers take note. I will, however, not be so hasty as to say that I'm going to vote for Glirdan. Much evidence has yet to be gleaned. I am, however, glad to have gotten already such a - how shall we say - ferocious response.

[littlemanpoet]

Personally, I'm not for this whole "choose a leader" plan.

A: give a wolf more of a chance to influence us if we choose him/her as our leader
B: cause us to quickly lynch him/her if he/she turns out to be wrong. Good if the leader is a wolf, bad if the leader is just a misguided innocent, really bad if the leader is a gifted.

... making somebody the leader is probably the same as sticking an "EAT ME" sign on his/her back, or, if he/she survives the Night, a "LYNCH ME" one.

We have to work together if we're going to solve this. Putting all the power into one person's hands is probably not a good idea, unless that person is a total genius or the Seer.

Quite right, good sir, and you make valid points. Still, would not two votes per Day not be helpful, since the things you say about the extra vote per Day are also true of the vote we'll already do, substituting "Leader" for "last person to vote for the now dead innocent"?

[Glirdan]

You, in turn, my seeming fellow innocent, have proven quite quick to pounce, which suggests to me that you are either guileless or extremely full of guile, the latter of which suggests lycanthrope. So you are hoist with your own pitard. That is, by declaring me so suspicious, you have raised suspicion upon yourself. Let my esteemed fellow villagers take note. I will, however, not be so hasty as to say that I'm going to vote for Glirdan. Much evidence has yet to be gleaned. I am, however, glad to have gotten already such a - how shall we say - ferocious response.

And I would not expect I response less than that my fellow villager. That plus what you said to Eonwe makes you less suspicious in my eyes. I think it would be quite stupid to lynch someone as smart as yourself. You're still suspicious, yet I don't think I'll be voting for you now.

I believe Bergil's rash vote for Wilwa was purely randomness so I highly doubt that I'll be voting for him, yet he is not yet cleared from suspicion.

All these acusations are completely random {form me(mostly) anyway} . I'm still quite unsure of who to vote for and I have to vote early because of other things and my vote will mostly be random, unless Eonwe doesn't defend himself against what I said.

[Firefoot]

Firefoot - a traveller hey? Convenient how the trouble starts as soon as he gets here She. :)

I agree with those opposing LMP's plan. It just puts too much power into the hands of one person. Three things could happen: a) the person is a wolf - 1/5 chance. This just puts too much power in a wolf's hands and gives the wolves too much influence, plain and simple. b) the person is the seer - 1/15 chance. This would be bad - it would put way too much of a spotlight on the seer for better or for worse. c) someone else - 11/15 chance. This doesn't help either. This person would know no more than or less than all the other players, and will quite possibly end up being lynched or focused too heavily on due to some kind of mistake, distracting attention from the real wolves.

I just don't see a lot of upside to it. I think the best thing is for everyone to vote their own way. It might not have a lot of immediate benefit, but it should have longer term benefits when we can look back on a couple days' voting and make out some patterns.

I don't know that this necessarily makes LMP a wolf, though. He could just be trying to generate discussion. I'm reserving judgment for the moment.

Well, this particular traveller has been doing a good bit of travelling and is in dire need of some rest. Will be back in several hours to probably vote. I could try and hold it off to the last minute, but unless I am really undecided I probably won't toDay, simply because I want to see how the timing works out with the end of the Day and my own schedule.

[littlemanpoet]

Your quick retraction of suspicion against me, my dear undead sir, could be taken either way; but my instinct tells me that it's based on sound reasoning. We shall see if my plan and the discussion that ensues, ferrets out any more questionable or suspicious content. Let's hear it on the plan, people! Oh, and watch your step as you enter the viewing room. The first step can be tricky.

[Eonwe]

*frowns* well i didn't say i am all for teh plan. just analyzing the possiblities. the whole thing rests on the leader. i have to say, i remain quite sceptical. especially this early. see, suposing we elect an innocent. we all vote according to what he (ehem, generically, for those who care) tells us to do. if we catch a wolf, fine. if not, we killed a villager, are probable going to kill another (well, we would have to see how it played out), but the real thing is, we didn't do any good. the wolfs are still completely innvisible and we have no hints.

no supposing we ellect a wolf. that is a whole new can of worms, although not so differetn. if we kill a wolf fine. now it breaks down into suspicion. is our leader a wolf covering hmself. is our leader a lucky innocnet. can we trust him cuz he's right? should be mistrust him cuz he's right. if we kill an innocnet, not much really changes. is he an unlucky innocnet. did he choose an innocnet to protect a wolf?

all in all, i guess it has its merrits, but not until much later on. put yourself in the leaders place. we are asking him to be answerable for all the choises we would indiviually be making. right now, that would be a very, very hard task, very very likely he would get lynched for it.

so, my final thoughts on the plan are taht it could be used. but only later. and i think we should have a know innocent at the helm, at very least.

hopefully that will clarify my position and return me to your good graces glirdan. :D

ps. we have just wittenessed that great ambiguousness we call werewolf. to trust or not to trust. there are just so many ways to cut teh cake, if you take my meaning.

edit cross posted with firefoot and lmp

[littlemanpoet]

I agree with those opposing LMP's plan. It just puts too much power into the hands of one person. Three things could happen: a) the person is a wolf - 1/5 chance. This just puts too much power in a wolf's hands and gives the wolves too much influence, plain and simple. b) the person is the seer - 1/15 chance. This would be bad - it would put way too much of a spotlight on the seer for better or for worse. c) someone else - 11/15 chance. This doesn't help either. This person would know no more than or less than all the other players, and will quite possibly end up being lynched or focused too heavily on due to some kind of mistake, distracting attention from the real wolves. ... I just don't see a lot of upside to it.Sound reasoning, as I would expect from someone of high intelligence, milady of the esteemed traveling. Such a post lends credence to your innocence.

He could just be trying to generate discussion.Quite right. Let's have some more. But for now I must go make a coffin and dig a grave. I shall return to the discussion when that task is complete.

[Glirdan]

She.

I'm sorry my dear Firefoot. Please forgive me.

Lmp, for your plan, I'd have to say that I'm against, yet also for it. I'm torn both ways. It would be really unwise to place one person in charge because, as he said, that would mean we could possibly be putting a Wolf in charge and he would have easy power of unfluencing us in our votes. Yes he might influence us in voting for a Wolf the first time and then innocents afterwards and we might all sit here and think "Oh it's just bad luck we're having here" and that would ensure I victory for the Wolves. Or he might make us vote for an innocent and imeadeatly make us suspicious of him. And if he doesn't get attacked at Night, we'd be able to guess that he/she's a Wolf.

We might put an Ordinary villager in charge and he/she might make us, accidentally of course, but unknown to us, an innocent villager and then we go and lynch him the next day and that would mean three innocents in a matter of two Days and 1 Night.

We might put a gifted in charge and if we do and then that gifted gets attacked at Night, we're in big trouble. Or if the gifted makes us accidentally lynch an innocent and we lynch him the next day, we're in big trouble again because there goes someone we really need to help us be rid of this curse.

I think our safest course of action would be to not select someone to be in charge. There's to much to risk.

[Kitanna]

I've been waiting until I had something to say that was beside agreeing or disagreeing with others. And now it seems it is time.

It seems Bergil has voted for Wilwa because her "post did not take 33 minutes to write". Now not to call Wilwa innocent or Bergil guilty, but I can imagnine her post taking 33 minutes to write. I've written rather short posts like that and it's taken me a long time for whatever reason (phone calls, sometimes I forget where I was going and have to reread everyone's posts, other such things) so that is why I don't doubt it took Wilwa so long. But I won't throw down anything on Bergil because of his early vote and, what seems like, the randomness of it. Not yet anyway. There are other things to look at first. But like many others I would like to hear again from Bergil on why.

lmp~ his idea for a leader is not such a bad one. But I think we should wait until DAY 2, or even DAY 3, when there is more for us to go off of in picking a leader. Of course like all plans though if we choose wrong then we are out of luck for that day.
A: give a wolf more of a chance to influence us if we choose him/her as our leader
B: cause us to quickly lynch him/her if he/she turns out to be wrong. Good if the leader is a wolf, bad if the leader is just a misguided innocent, really bad if the leader is a gifted.
Menel you make a good point, but most strategies we will have as a village will have downsides like this. I think it may be worth a shot on DAY 2 or 3. If it leads us down diasterous path then of course we should not try it again. There are dangers involved in bandwagoning, voting randomly, and lmp's leader plan.

Glirdan~ He has me quite confused to be honest. His first post was of course random. Then he goes after Eonwe, lmp, and Bergil. I understand his reasoning behind Bergil, but his Eonwe and lmp reasonings are where I am not sure what to think. He is changing his mind rather quickly with lmp. First he casts his eye on lmp and his plan. As well as Eonwe for supporting lmp's plan. But he does say lmp is the most suspicious in his eyes. Then in his next post he is quick to remove much of his suspicions from lmp and put them on Eonwe. Now I can take this two ways. 1) Glirdan is innocent and has truly changed his mind and sees Eonwe as more of a threat than lmp. 2) He is a wolf and he is changing his mind quickly because he wants to find an innocent to latch on too. Now I am quite inclined to believe number one, mainly because his quick change of opinion draws attention which is not what a wolf would want. But I will also take into account a clever wolf will use such a tactic because the village would not expect it. I will continue to watch him for now.

Not much else for me to say. I wish I had more helpful things to say.

[tar-ancalime]

It seems to me that to implement lmp's plan would simply be to codify what happens spontaneously whenever there is a bandwagon. One person (or sometimes two) starts the accusations, others agree, and before you know it the votes are in and we've followed a de facto leader.

Afterwards, what do we do? We analyze the actions of the original accuser to try to discern motives, inside knowledge, etc.; then we do the same for the followers and in some cases for the non-followers. I really don't see a difference between this process and what lmp is proposing, except for one: Under lmp's plan we'd be absolutely conscious of what we're doing at every step.

It just doesn't seem to matter that much whether we implement this plan or not. lmp, please correct me if I'm missing some important point (it wouldn't be the first time).

And Celuien, I am shocked at the report you give me of the peformance of those knives. Shocked. Did you leave them out in a dewy morning as I instructed? Did you bathe them in raw egg (an absolutely necessary step)?

Of course you did. You are the most careful of craftsmen. It's just that, with all the hundreds of knives I have sold, I've never had another bad report. Well, I am flummoxed. But to show my good faith and to try to make amends, I am willing to refund you a full ONE-FOURTH of the price you paid. I'm sure this will more than make up for any inconvenience.

[Glirdan]

I have to vote now and my vote shall be

++Eonwe

As I said, this vote is mostly random yet he still didn't quite defend himself against my accusation. I hope I'm wrong and that no one follows me in this vote, unless something else pops up about him.

Kitanna, I'm sorry if I confused you on my suspicions on Lmp and Eonwe.

Lmp is because of the fact that he proposed this plan. Could he be innocent and trying to help? Or could he be a Wolf masquerading as an innocent that's trying to help?

Eonwe is because he backed up Lmp's idea so this could be a misguided innocent OR a Wolf agreeing with a fellow Wolf's plan OR a Wolf agreeing with an innocent's plan which would almost insure a Wolves vistory.

Once again, this vote for Eonwe is mostly randomness because I have to vote so early. So don't take this vote to seriously.

[Kuruharan]

Um, it's hanged, not hung, by the way, my good man.

I will continue to use "hung" because it will drive nitpicking grammarians absolutely nuts. They could become so cross they might make a mistake.

That fatal flaw is none other than the wolf leader choosing to lynch a wolf, thus more or less clearing self of suspicion. Of course, 'tis not a fatal flaw if we all go in realizing that a wolf may just be forced by the plan to pick a fellow wolf for lynching; but the question is, would a wolf do such a thing so early in the game?

For this to work to best advantage, it should be done early in the game. While it can be done later, to gain the most steerage benefit it should be done early. Maybe not necessarily on DAY ONE but definitely by DAY TWO.

I agree with Meneltarmacil that choosing a leader would be a bad thing.

I also think there is a danger here for villagers in attempting to be too formulaic and rigid. Flexibility and adaptability are key here. That is why I am usually not too big on "plans." Best to keep an open mind.

I must note that littlemanpoet has been talking...a lot. This is not necessarily bad. In fact, it might be good. On the other hand, it might indicate he is unduly excited about...something.

I am glad to see that the votes are spread out so far. I hope that continues.

Let's just not have a double lynching toDAY.

[Anguirel]

Leader? By Orome, I sense an opportunity...are leaders paid better than fools hereabouts? Imagine living the grand life, with a pack of retainers, on horseback, chasing after deer and boar and all manner of things...

Why elect me? Ahem. Well, it's well known that the Gods watch over fools, so a jester is a perfect guide in times of trouble. You can trust him to kill you a wolf without a second thought!

What? The leader is more likely to be eaten?

Um, ah, forget what I said. Who'd be stupid enough put a jester in charge, anyway?

Seriously, no, really, having a leader just leads to the same mishandled results, but lays the responsibility at the feet of one villager. It really won't reveal much, and deciding who to elect will waste analysis time.

I was initially suspicious of Meneltarmacil due to his inane jesting (nothing like my standard) in his first speech, but his sensible debunking of the leadership plan redeems him for now. Kitanna has now convinced me that Glirdan is worth taking a stab at. But I'm aware that we really can't deduce much today. Three wolves among twelve sheep...

I say we just follow instinct and inclination, spread the vote, and hope and pray to Orome for a decent trail.

[Kath]

Just one question Kath, why did you decide to skip by fives? I have a little theory about your choice of that number. There are 15 villagers in this here town, and three wolves. 15 divided by 3 is 5, which is the number you chose.
Well duh! No offence meant really wilwa but yes obviously that's why I took every 5th number. 3 of our community are wolves so I picked 3 names in the most fair way I could think of at the time.

Now it seems that Bergil and Glirdan have voted. Bergil for wilwa and Glirdan for Eonwe. As soon as I have more than 5 seconds on here I'll take a closer look at that.

LMP's plan for electing a leader seems to have some support and some opposition. I would like to add myself to the opposition side at least for now. We can't have a leader until we have a known innocent, and as yet we don't.

Right, thats all for now. This writer has to go write!

[littlemanpoet]

*LMP returns from coffin making and grave digging*

Nothing like a good flawed plan to ferret out some sense of relative innocence or perhaps guilt. :)

For toDay I am going to presume innocent, on the merits of their solid posts in response to my flawed plan:

Glirdan

Eonwe
Meneltarmacil
Firefoot
Kuruharan
Anguirel

Whereas Kuru's debunking of my plan came later than others, I'm taking into account his earlier posts in placing him amongst my presumed innocents. And even though Anguirels' post regarding my plan comes quite late, that he calls Menel's post a "sensible debunking" lends credence to his innocence as well.

Those whom I consider (at least) mildly suspicious are:

Kitanna
Bergil
tar ancalime

Bergil on the strength of his early vote, his reasoning for which has holes; yes, it's probably a random vote, so that's why I'm only mildly suspicious.

Kitanna's and tar ancalime's debunking of my flawed plan came rather late, such that they may merely be mimicking the attitudes of others, though their replies seem independently thought out. Still, they seem to be fence-sitting, and that is about as wolvish a behavior as I have yet seen. Since their posts could be construed either way, I'm still only mildly suspicious.

Which leaves:

Celuien
Kath
Lalaith
Waynethegoblin
Wilwa

Of these people, only Kath has said anything that I would consider of substance, namely 'morming'. I trust such an approach, but am aware that a werewolf might use it early in order to seem innocent.

Wilwa seems more playful than anything at this early stage.

Celuien and Lalaith have so far been posting in character, which tells me very little. Wayne's post was a mere "I'm here" post, and I have nothing to say about him.

Therefore, I'm watching those five for more indications, and keeping my eye on the three above-named 'mildly suspicious' individuals. My vote shall be for one amongst these eight. That's still too many to choose from, but there's still time.

And now it is time to process to the graveyard. Will you others assist in placing the dearly departed in the coffin? Thank you. And now ..... lift! Good, step slowly. On we go...

Edit: crossposted at this ungodly hour with Kath.

[littlemanpoet]

Kath's slightly offensive "no offense Wilwa but" post seems a bit too careless for a werewolf; it could be that she's in a hurry to get to her nano writing thing, but I'm moving her to my presumed innocent list for toDay. So:

presumed innocent

Glirdan
Eonwe
Meneltarmacil
Firefoot
Kuruharan
Anguirel
Kath

mildly suspicious

Kitanna
Bergil
tar ancalime

still questioning

Celuien
Lalaith
Waynethegoblin
Wilwa

[Lalaith]

I second Kuru, Eonwe and Firefoot, I dislike first days too. I see some villagers are being unreasonable, others frivolous, still others relatively silent. But this behaviour is all par for the course when we have so little to go on.

I am grateful for Lmp's suggested plan, not because I agree with it - I don't - but because it has given us something concrete to discuss, other than the usual isn't-it-sad-about-spawn-werewolves-how-awful. So for that reason I am inclined to think him innocent...EXCEPT for a niggling doubt that this is just the kind of thing a really clever wolf would do. And our undertaker is no fool. There are others I'd vote for before him - but I'll be keeping an eye open.

Written in haste - more later.

*looks down* I see lmp has posted while I've been writing this. I'll think about his points later, too.

[Anguirel]

Call me a fool if you like, but I suspect half of the lot our undertaker has just "presumed innocent"...

Kath's defensive, which doesn't clear her in my eyes. Menel is too cool-headed. Firefoot is too skilful to be ignored. Glirdan and Eonwe are entwined in suspicious suspicion of each other...

From his shortlist, though, Celuien has an aura of menace...calm under fire...sa-ha! but as I must stress, with so little knowledge, none of this means anything. Only Orome or Tulkas could let us fell a wolf ere the second day dawns...and I fear neither are on our side at present.

Ah well. How many werewolves does it take to light a torch?

[Celuien]

And Celuien, I am shocked at the report you give me of the peformance of those knives. Shocked. Did you leave them out in a dewy morning as I instructed? Did you bathe them in raw egg (an absolutely necessary step)?

Of course you did. You are the most careful of craftsmen. It's just that, with all the hundreds of knives I have sold, I've never had another bad report. Well, I am flummoxed. But to show my good faith and to try to make amends, I am willing to refund you a full ONE-FOURTH of the price you paid. I'm sure this will more than make up for any inconvenience.
Well, should we meet again as innocents in happier times, perhaps we shall discuss your offer.

Back to business...

Adding another problem with LMP's plan. It's already been pointed out that the leader becomes the automatic target for the wolves. Automatic targets are bad because they don't leave a trail for discussion of why the wolves picked said villager. Rather than being able to debate if the villager was on to something and eaten for that reason or chosen as a safe bet, the conversation becomes "So-and-so was our leader. The wolves ate the leader" End of story. So I have to add my name to the list of those who oppose the plan.

Glirdan's vote swings seem odd. But because of his reasoned response to lmp's plan, I'll willing to presume him an innocent for now, with the caveat that he probably bears watching. Bergil has also been acting strangely, but he did preface the early vote wth a warning, so that doesn't give me anything on go on. Another one to keep my eye on.

Which leaves this list:
Presumed innocent (mostly my same list from before - nothing happened to change my mind on them)
Anguirel
Menel
Lalaith
Me- of course I don't suspect myself. As far as I'm concerned, calm under fire is the only way to keep from going out of my head in this nightmare era.
Firefoot
lmp - disagree with his plan, but the fact that he offered one speak well for him.
Eonwe
Kath - I'm not really inclined to put defensiveness down to wolvishness unless combined with other signs since innocents have reason to defend themselves too.
Kuru - another seeming voice of reason
Wilwa - no reason to suspect her from her post.
Kitanna - gives reasonable enough analysis.

Bear watching (only mild suspicions of anyone here):
Glirdan
Bergil
for reasons given above
WaynetheGoblin - just because I don't have anything to draw conclusions about him from yet.
tar-ancalime - just because I'm not really sure what to make of her. Gives a good response to lmp, but there's just an odd feeling about her. Nothin concrete.

Hmm, that doesn't really get me anywhere. Of the watch list, I'm most likely to suspect Glirdan for the sudden opinion changes, though this is only a MILD suspicion. I'm far from ready to vote for anyone yet.

Have to run and get myself ready to go to the shop...

[Kath]

Well I'm back again and as promised a quick look at Bergil and Glirdan since they have voted and have voted early.

Bergil:
All we have from him is a joke at the beginning, though still one putting Glirdan in the suspect seat. Then, after no other posts we get a vote for wilwa, with the reasoning of:

those statments did not take 33 minuites to type.
Is he saying that she already had her reasoning written out? I can't really work that out.

Glirdan:
Actually there's quite a lot of substance in his posts. Well thought out arguments and a good answer to LMP's leader plan.

Hmm, ok then for now I shall think of Glirdan as innocent even with his early vote as of course that is due to time differences. SO, he voted for Eonwe, a look at her will come next - damn school!

[WaynetheGoblin]

Glirdens vote is odd bringing him up to the second space on my list of people i think are wolves.

1. bergil

2. glirden

3. nowone else that i can see.
++bergil

[wilwarin538]

those statments did not take 33 minuites to type.

Actually they did. I got half way through and had to take a phone call.

The fact that you used that reasoning to vote for me is very strange. First of all cause it doesn't make any sense. I don't get why me taking 33 minutes to type something would be suspicious.

I would have rathered you vote for me out of randomness then to leave an excuse like that.

Just wanted to clear that up, I really must part. I'll be back for the entire hour before voting is closed. Right now the only one I can see to vote for would be Bergil, just cause his reasoning makes little to no sense.

EDIT: just saw Wayne's vote. He suspects Bergil and Glirdan for their strange votes, and then votes for one strangely? hmmmmmmm

[Firefoot]

I wish I had more time to go through all this with a fine-tooth comb, but I don't. And I'm also not sure how much time I will have later; I want to see how close I will be cutting it before trying it out today.

So at this point, LMP and Kitanna feel innocent to me. I thought that Bergil's reasoning for voting for Wilwa were strange, though I can't tell anything about Wilwa herself. Glirdan's not sitting quite right with me. I'd like to hear more from Wayne; he seems more like a passive spectator who votes than anything else. Kuru feels very analytical, as usual; probably leaning innocent. I want to hear more of substance from tar-ancalime. I could go either way with Menel and Celuien, though also probably innocent at this point. Eonwe feels mildly suspicious, and Lalaith is definitely not sitting right.

I may have missed a few, but I'm running out of time. Hopefully I'll be able to come back and let you know why. For now:

++LALAITH

It really is mostly just a feeling. I hate voting early.

[Anguirel]

Two things to offer-a jest and my probable vote...

Bear watching (only mild suspicions of anyone here):

Didn't know we were hunting for a bear as well!

And now...the course I'm planning to take:

As far as I'm concerned, nothing anyone says today is a justifiable basis for voting for them at this stage. Unfermented wine, if you like. We should examine it in the light of knowledge we get later, but now it's no help at all.

On the one hand, naturally, this makes it rather tricky to decide who to vote for without picking at random.

But there is this silver lining. For want of any better guide, we can feel free to vote for whoever we feel is irritating and unhelpful, safe in the knowledge that at least they are no less likely to be a wolf than anyone else. And the most irritating and unhelpful contribution I'm seen so far by many leagues is Wayne the Goblin's cobbled together backing for his vote.

I shall therefore feel no remorse at all in voting for Wayne in a few hours, even if he is innocent, even if he's gifted, actually. He provides no style, no substance, no analysis, and no wit, and on this day where we lack any reasonable evidence, he royally deserves to swing for it.

[Kuruharan]

This is another annoying thing about DAY ONEs. People end up voting on the basis of personality, which isn't any guide to hidden agendas.

I'm actually less inclined (at the moment) to suspect people who vote early because I don't think a wolf would do that, unless under duress. I think a wolf would be more inclined to stick around and mess with the voting at the end.

[Kitanna]

In the next couple of hours I will have to cast my vote and I have no much to go on.

Bergil keeps popping up on people's suspects lists. But I don't think I can vote for him today. His vote for Wilwa raises questions, but so does Wayne's vote for Bergil. I find both suspicious, not because of when they voted, but how they voted. But DAY 1 randomness will lead to it I suppose. I will of course watch them, but most likely not vote for them today.

As for Glirdan, who I named earlier, I still hold suspicions, but in his own suspicions he was quick to change his mind from post to post and I'm not entirely sure a wolf would do that.

So later I will go through everything again and see what I can find. Hopefully I can find something better and use it to vote.

[Anguirel]

When I vote for Wayne, rest assured it will not be anything to do with his personality. I'm sure he's a charming and delightful chap, but at the moment he's being about as much use in terms of his comments as a common garden slug.

[Kath]

Finally I have enough time to make a proper post!

Well now looking at Eonwe I don't really understand why Glirdan voted for her. She mostly comments in answer to other people, and twice about the problem of day 1 being slow.

There is this comment:
well, as they just had 24 hours to pm about stratgy, either they are very lazy, or the answer is no.
In response to Lalaith possibly setting out a wolvish plan. It's quite jokey but I suppose it could be taken as a defence.

Then there is this:
we could pick an innocent to lead us, which would yeild two resolts:

1) lynching of a wolf. that wold be good and our leader would be praised.
2) lynchin of an innocent. that would be bad, not only because we killed an innocent, but because we now cast suspicion on yet annother innocent. not to mention we wouldn't get anything as way of a trail.

or we could pick a wolf to lead us, also yeilding two results:

1) the wolf chooses to lynch a wolf. that is good and bad. we kill a wolf, but clear a wolf as well.
2) he lynches an innocent. good because we would suspet him.

all in all, i think it could be a worthy plan. but we should use it later on. and don't ellect me as leader, either.
In response to LMP's plan. This seems to me a fair analysis of the paths such a plan could take and she came up with the same final opinion as me, using it later. And I do believe she posted that long before me so the similarity can't make me think her guilty either.

She then has to repeat all these points because someone questions her about it, either Glirdan or LMP I haven't quite been able to work out which. In fact she repeats it almost exactly word for word without any protestations of unfair treatment or loud claims of innocence, which makes me feel that she is innocent.

So overall I really do not understand Glirdan's vote for her unless it was completely random as he said - twice. And the repetition there made me pause.
Eonwe is because he backed up Lmp's idea so this could be a misguided innocent OR a Wolf agreeing with a fellow Wolf's plan OR a Wolf agreeing with an innocent's plan which would almost insure a Wolves vistory.
Was the reasoning but Eonwe explained that she wasn't backing up this plan and having seen her posts I disagree that she was in full support.

Still, I don't know if Glirdan's (in my opinion) unsusbstantiated vote should then cast suspicion on him. So, let's have a look at everyone else.

Anguirel - Some extremely bad jokes at the beginning but I suppose we can't lynch just for that! Then an almost threat, which I am inclined to take as an in-character comment though it did make me think a bit. Then, finally, he gets more serious and gives reasons why LMP's plan to elect a leader would be unhelpful,which I agree with. Names his suspects with reasons and explains why he is either more or less suspicious of various people, which will help for future reference. Seems to be casting doubt on the strangely widefelt perception that LMP is an innocent, which I think is a good idea. Then suspects me, Menel, Firefoot, Glirdan and Celuien - again with reasons and a sort of decision that Celuien is the one he is most worried about. Then, after all these lists and suggestions, he decides to (probably) vote for Wayne based on his unhelpfulness so far - a good point. Definitely an odd one that bears watching.

Bergil - Did him earlier. Couldn't find anything to be suspicious of or to think him innocent because he has barely posted - irritating but not suspicious.

Celuien - Begins with seemingly no knowledge about anyone and just provides a quick list of what everyone has said. Opposes LMP's plan with reasoning. Makes lists of who she does and doesn't suspect, but there is no reasoning behind why she has picked some of the ones she sees as innocent which I would like. And really that's about it. She has posted quite often but only the two or three most recent ones have contained anything of use.

Eonwe - Already did. Could find nothing suspicious - but am now fearing she is in fact a he.

Firefoot - Requests that those who talk make substantial posts not just chat in order to catch out the wolves. Completely disagrees with LMP's plan, finding no use in it at all. Appears to be in a rush and I think that's real because it's rare for her not to make lists and put real reasons and evidence behind her words. Though she has been strangely uninvolved I will give that the benefit of the doubt until she can explain.

Hmm, I'll have to wait to do the others. Must go learn.

[tar-ancalime]

I see that the village has been busy in my absence. I do apologize; but a girl's got to make a living.

Here are my thoughts thus far:

I've divided this list into "benefit of the doubt" and "baseless uneasiness" as opposed to "innocent" and "guilty" because, well, what do we really know toDAY?

Benefit of the doubt:

lmp has quite adeptly controlled the conversation all DAY, both in content and in sheer number of posts. Is he a truly helpful innocent, appointing himself as our leader in the absence of an election? Or is he a wolf, cleverly steering the discussion from the very beginning? Either way, he's not getting my vote toDAY--he did get us talking, and if he is a wolf he won't be able to hide in plain sight like that for long.

Firefoot, Glirdan, Kitanna, Kuruharan, Eonwe, Celuien, Kath, and Meneltarmacil have made thoughtful and original posts that have given me pause and helped me think through this DAY. None of them will get my vote.

Baseless uneasiness:

Anguirel's flippant posts are amusing and in character, but I would like to hear more of substance from him. He has named a lot of names toDAY and invoked Orome more than once, but there's something in his posts that feels wrong to me. Despite Kath's assertion that he gives reasons for his suspicions, I think he's simply casting his net as wide as he can toDAY.

Bergil and Wayne have been very reticent, and both voted early. I'll reserve a strong opinion on that for a DAY or two, until we start to see how everyone's schedules shake out. In the future I want to see more substantive posts from both of them, though.

I'd like to hear more from Lalaith and wilwarin; however, since neither has voted, I suspect their contributions will resume after I go to bed (very soon).

As it's getting rather late in this longitude, I've got to cast my (mostly random) vote now.

++ANGUIREL

In the end, his net of suspicion is cast just a little too wide. I've got an unsubstantiated, first-DAY feeling that he's trying to divert our attention from something.

[littlemanpoet]

I cannot wait any longer. I may not be able to get back from the grave yard to vote later, so I must vote now.

Kitanna is fading from my suspicious list.

Anguirel's strange comment, that there is NOTHING that can be said on Day one that can be useful for voting, is spurious, and that gives me pause about him: it's either really bad logic from an innocent, or a wolf trying to steer things a bit. I'm leaning toward the latter.

Nevertheless, tar ancalime still does not sit right with me.

I still suspect Bergil for reasons I've offered earlier.

So.......

++ TAR ANCALIME

[Lalaith]

Anguirel – starts by jesting. Doesn’t like lmp’s plan, approves of Mene because he didn’t either. Agrees with Kitanna about Glirdan. Finds Kath too defensive, Firefoot too skilful, Eonwe and Glirdan’s mutual suspicion suspicious. (Actually, Eonwe hasn’t really voiced suspicioms of Glirdan.) Finds Wayne so irritating that he will probably vote for him.
Bergil – makes glib comment about Glirdan, then rushes in with a vote for Wilwarin, on what seems unreasonable grounds.
Celuien – starts off in character but then makes reasonable assessment. Doesn’t want to make random accusations, but says she will vote later. Makes reasonable assessment of everyone, plumps for Bergil, Glirdan and Wayne as suspicious – also tar-ancalime. Fair enough, except perhaps her suspects are too easy and obvious.
Eonwe – starts off admitting he has nothing to say but wants everyone else to explain their theories. He wants to wait on Lmp’s plan. His comments seem candid and actually quite reasonable, I feel fairly comfortable about him.
Firefoot – wants everyone to stop chatting and say something of substance. Fair enough, but in the very early stages, how? Analyses Lmp’s plan and finds it wanting. But later says she now finds LMP and Kitanna innocent. She doesn’t like Bergil’s vote, knows nothing about Wilwa, wants to hear more from Wayne and tar-ancalime. Kuru, Menel and Celuien leaning innocent, suspicious of Eonwe – I don’t feel right at all (she doesn’t say why) so she votes for me. I know it’s bad werewolf form to suspect people just for suspecting you, but I must say I was quite surprised by this.
Glirdan – his first post is mostly frivolous. Then he gets serious, he really doesn’t like Bergil’s hasty vote, lmp’s plan or Eonwe’s semi-support for it. He wants to vote for lmp. Then he thinks lmp is innocent because lmp attacked him back, and also for some reason changes his mind about Bergil. Still suspects Eonwe. Then he says he actually quite likes lmp’s plan after all but still isn’t convinced enough to go along with it. Then he votes for Eonwe but says its mostly random.
Kath – randomly picks villagers 5,10 and 15 to defend themselves and generate debate. Opposes Lmp’s plan. Later defends Eonwe at length, and assesses other villagers, up to Firefoot. Most of her comments are sensible. I’m inclined to trust her.
Kitanna – agrees with meaningful talking but not Kuru’s silent plan. Then she comes back later, says she can understand Wilwa’s length of posting time but also with Bergil’s hasty vote. Quite likes Lmp’s leader plan. Is as confused by Glirdan as I am. Finds Bergil and Wayne suspicious but doesn’t want to vote for them yet. Now thinks Glirdan’s flip-flopping might make him NOT a wolf.
Kuruharan – is mostly talking sense but seems to recommend silence and is himself saying less than I’d expect him to. Still, could be plenty of innocent reasons for that. Doesn’t like lmp’s plan. Points out that lmp talks a lot. Doesn’t like any plans, in fact. Doesn’t want a double lynching. Doesn’t suspect early voters.
Lalaith talks a little last night, disagrees with LMP's plan this morning, but acknowledges its usefulness. Writes monstrous post in the afternoon.
LMP – starts off in character but then moves on to suggestions. Appears to ally with Firefoot. Comes out with leader plan, then points out its flaws but says it would still work. Attacks Glirdan for attacking it. Then admits it was flawed on purpose and as a result suspects those who seemed to support it, ie Bergil, Kitanna and tar-ancamilie. HOWEVER: he sets great store by how quick people were to oppose his plan, overlooking that he posted his plan at 2 am for some of us. This is flawed logic which makes me worry that his plan was spurious. (He also says I was posting in character, in fact this amounted to just half a sentence. But I’m prepared to overlook that slur) Doesn't suspect Kitanna anymore, very much, still suspects Bergil but doesn't feel right about tar-ancamile at all and so votes for her.
Meneltarmacil – immediately suggests that wolves are likely to be “middling”. villagers, unless they are very smart or very stupid.
Says he wants to focus on Celuien, at random, but then makes an odd suggestion that I was talking to my fellow wolves, Eonwe points out that would be odd as the wolves have just had 24 hours to talk. Comes out with sensible objections to lmp’s plan.
Tar-ancalime – first post just character. Then she says that lmp’s plan makes no difference. Comes in with a good post just now, points to Ang’s evoking of Orome (nice one, I hadn’t picked up on that) also suspects Bergil and Wayne, and wants to hear more from me and Wilwarin (hope she’s satisfied now as far as I’m concerned!) Thinks Anguirel is casting net too wide so votes for Anguirel.
WaynetheGoblin – not much at all to go on. Thinks Bergil and Glirdan are wolves and votes for Bergil.
Wilwarin538 - her first post is entirely frivolous. Is angered by Bergil’s vote for her which she says makes no sense. Says she will probably vote for him but also finds Wayne’s vote strange.

What to make of all this? I haven't decided yet.

[Lalaith]

It's wide open at the moment:

Wilwa (Bergil)
Eonwe (Glirdan)
Bergil (Wayne)
Lalaith (Firefoot)
Anguirel (tar-ancalime)
tar-ancalime (LMP)

(Lynch nominees first, voters in brackets)

[Kath]

Despite Kath's assertion that he gives reasons for his suspicions, I think he's simply casting his net as wide as he can toDAY.
I do think Anguirel had some reasons for his suspicions though they weren't fantastically detailed, but I agree as to him being a little off somehow. I think that's a fair vote from, erm, do you mind being called tara? You are female and it's easier than putting your whole name every time.

Anyway back to people.

Glirdan - Already looked at and I ended up thinking of him as an innocent with a strange vote.

Kath - I believe I have been suspected by a couple of people. Good to see no one is taking the old loud = innocent route.

Kitanna - Disagrees with Kuru about being silent on Day 1. Thinks Bergil's vote for wilwa was baseless. Thinks LMP's plan will be good if implemented later. Unsure about Glirdan's flip flopping between suspects. Suspicious of Bergil, Wayne and Glirdan with reasons. To be honest I'm thinking innocent. She doesn't post a huge amount (which is nice, takes less time to look at!) but when she does post it is with substance and in response to other, as well as naming and explaining suspicions.

Kuruharan - Doesn't like the idea of random picking of names or the idea of talking - though he argues against his own idea. In response to the suggestion by LMP that a wolf leader could choose to lynch a wolf, he seems to reply with almost telling him how to go about making this work. Now I am not really keen on proposing that LMP and Kuru are wolves making a plot in the middle of the Day because they could so easily wait until toNight but it still made me think. Anyway, then agrees choosing a leader is a bad idea, in fact states he wants no plans at all. Throws suspicion on LMP and asks for no double lynchings. Doesn't like people voting due to personality and doesn't think a wolf would vote early. Possibly another instruction?

Lalaith - Insults Anguirel and asks people to talk. Answers my random questioning of her with all she could at the time. Grateful for LMP's plan, though she disagrees with it, since it generates an actualy discussion. Wants to keep an eye on LMP in case he is being a clever wolf.

littlemanpoet - Waaay too many posts to do this for. Suffice it to say I think he came up with this plan just to get people talking. However, he has posted about twice as many times as everyone else, which could be a way of hiding behind being loud. Also, that thing with Kuru I thought I came across earlier. I don't want to suspect him because I find him quite helpful, but right now I can't help it.

Meneltarmacil - Believes the wolves will not be loud or quiet but in the middle. Wants people to talk. Suspects Kuru and Lalaith, seemingly for their opposing ideas. Doesn't like the idea of having a leader, and thinks if we do said leader will be eaten or lynched a Day after being chosen. And that's it. No more ideas on suspects or anything. Where has he got to?

tar-ancalime - In character to start with, with absolutely nothing useful said. Dislikes LMP's plan and thinks that it won't really matter if we implement it since it will only make what happens anyway more obvious. Thinks LMP's loudness could be a front for wolvishness. Also unsure about Anguirel, Bergil, Wayne, Lalaith and wilwa - finally voting for Anguirel. Not many posts and too much of each is in character. But that final list was good.

WaynetheGoblin - No suspects, says he will list them tomorrow. Then suspects Bergil and Glirdan, voting for Bergil. Absolutely no reasoning behind his vote for Bergil. Suspects Glirdan for his odd vote. 2 posts people! If he doesn't post more he's going to get himself lynched.

Wilwarin538 - One of my original three. Questions me about why I chose her. Possibly defensive. Accuses everyone jokingly. Pretty unhappy about being voted for - again defensive. Suspects Bergil for voting for her.

Soo, suspects for me I think would be:
Kuru
LMP
wilwa

Want to watch:
Anguirel
Glirdan

I don't really have anyone I definitely think innocent, except myself of course, though there are plenty of people I'm not sure on yet.

Apologies to all those of you bored to death from this post. It's more for my benefit so I don't have to find it all again!

EDIT: crossposted with Lalaith, who said pretty much the same things.

[Anguirel]

While I have about half-a-dozen wild wolf-voting-for-wolf accusations on my tongue relating particularly to my old chum LMP and to tar-ancalime, I can't believe that the villagers would be stupid enough to lynch their only fool, in Mandos' name. Where will you be without someone to patronise and kick? Where will you get your source of vague satirical unease, vital to any scene of horror? And surely you all know that a jester is the only member of a court who always speaks the truth...you wouldn't sacrifice my frankness too. You're better than that, village.

As such a precious member of village society, I shall preserve my skin till the opportunity comes to sacrifice it in rather more style. I have no wish to be dragged into a cycle of "you made a mistake, therefore you must die" lynching. So I shall emulate my brother fools. I shall smile. I shall receive my insult like a cur who knows he has been justly beaten. I will turn away, my bells ringing as I do so, and follow my own unpredictable, but, I hope, diverting, path.

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN

As for this:

Anguirel's strange comment, that there is NOTHING that can be said on Day one that can be useful for voting, is spurious, and that gives me pause about him: it's either really bad logic from an innocent, or a wolf trying to steer things a bit.

The undertaker is moonstruck in more ways than one if he seeks answers in the logic of a fool.

[Kath]

Hmm and I missed LMP's vote - for tara. He said earlier that her fence-sitting behaviour was causing him to be suspicious of her, as well as her late opposition to his plan. I'm not sure the second is a fair reason for suspicion due to the differing timezones. Maybe LMP voted for her in retaliation for her suspicion of him.

[Lalaith]

Actually, LMP's blithe disregard for time zones is my main worry about him.

[Celuien]

On consideration, I'm going to go with my watch list. Glirdan and tar-ancalime have made interesting, reasonable posts, so I won't vote for them. Which leaves a choice of Bergil or the Goblin. Bergil's actions, while odd, were explained. Which leaves

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN

[Kitanna]

Much of what I was planning on saying seems to have been said already. So I'm going to try not to repeat what others have already stated because no one wants to read a post like that.

I've stated Glirdan, Bergil, and Wayne as suspects, but I am not sure I want to vote for them. Glirdan has me confused, but at this point I am inclined to move him quite low on my suspect list. Bergil and Wayne both have rather baseless and random votes, but seeing as it is day one and my own vote (and I'm sure other people's votes) are random.

lmp seems to be the one trying to generate the most conversation. I like that. He is proposing ideas and defends them and it is causing people to say more. Which is very good. I think he is worth keeping around for a while.

Firefoot, Kath, and Menel all disagreed with lmp's plan and I can see where they are coming from. Of course it has a terrible downside, but most of the plans used in WW do. Kath and Firefoot both make very helpful posts. Menel does too, but I find Firefoot and Kath's more helpful than his. But all three should be kept around past DAY 1.

Kuru also had a proposed idea of silence and then everyone simply votes. Now that is an easy way for a wolf too hide, but also a rather foolish thing for a wolf to do. Wolves like to take a bandwagon approach and if everyone is silent there is no way to bandwagon without calling attention to oneself. At the moment I'd say half of me thinks Kuru is a wolf and the other half doesn't. I'll watch him closely in the days to come.

So that leaves me with Anguirel, Lalaith, tar-ancalime, Wilwarin538, Eonwe, and Celuien to vote for.

Anguriel seems to be leaning toward Wayne because of Wayne's lack of substance. Somewhat random, but at the same time reasonable. It is easy to get rid of posters like Wayne because they often confuse the village. So I see where he is coming from. Of course that doesn't mean I'd put in that vote today.

Lalaith disagreed with lmp's plan, but sees how it can benefit us as a village. She wants us to talk more. Which of course is an easy place for a wolf to hide in.

Tar said little to start with and then disagreed with lmp's plan. Asks for more substance from Anguriel. Also states "something feels wring in his posts." Interesting... Also calls to hear more from Wilwa and Lalaith.

Wilwa has really said nothing of much help. Thinks Bergil gives a stupid reason for voting for her and questions Wayne's vote.

Eonwe as usual calls for explanations of people's suspects and votes. Quite reasonable really. Can't really understand Glirdan's vote for him.

Celuin has been the least helpful for me personally. Her second post was slightly helpful in summarizing what had been said so far and she said no one was suspicious in her eyes. She maintained that standpoint again in her third post. Then she mentions Glirdan and Bergil and says she will keep an eye on them. Then she says (under Glirdan and Bergil) that tar and Wayne bear watching. It was nothing truly helpful to go off of.

++ CELUIEN

This vote isn't entirely random, but it is not very concrete either. I tried to find neon signs that pointed out the wolves, but it is just not happening. Hopefully tomorrow will be more helpful in rooting out the wolves.

EDIT: Votes stand as such:
Wilwa = 1 vote from Bergil
Eonwe = 1 vote from Glirdan
Bergil = 1 vote from Wayne
Lalaith = 1 vote from Firefoot
Anguriel = 1 vote from tar
Tar = 1 vote from lmp
Wayne = 2 votes from Anguriel and Celuin
Celuien = 1 vote from me

[Lalaith]

Kitanna, you're right that it just seems too easy to get rid of Wayne. I'm not at all convinced he's a wolf, but on the other hand, I don't want cause a double lynching.
Nine people have voted, six are left to vote. I don't think voting is compulsory in this game, so of course not everyone who is left is necessarily going to vote.
Currently I have no super-strong wolf suspects. However I feel most uncomfortable about Glirdan. After him comes Bergil, I think. Wayne and Wilwarin are not being constructive but I'm not sure this means they are wolves. Wilwa seems more suspicious than Wayne to me.
On my watch list is LMP, who worries me. Mind you, he has a history of worrying me. Also on this list is Firefoot, followed by Menemeltarcil, Anguirel and Kuru.
Still reserving judgement on Celuien, tar-a, Kitanna. Feel most comfortable (at the moment, anyway) about Kath and Eonwe.
I'll hang on a bit to vote.

[Meneltarmacil]

Hello all! As I said, I wouldn't be posting until now due to my responsibilities.

I, too, had thought about Glirdan being a Wolf due to his rather odd behavior and think it likely. I remain suspicious of Lalaith and maybe Kuruharan as well, though I don't have much evidence to go on for anybody I listed.

For now, though, I reserve my vote. I'll wait until later and see who others pick.

[Eonwe]

well, im back. much has happened. i've skimmed most of it and all i really have to say now is i am not of the female persuation. ;)

lets see. i believe a vote is in order pretty soon. i'll go back and actually try to read everything and then deside an a completely random vote, probable.

oh and one point of clarification. when i say explain your theories, i mean as we go on, i'd like to see detailed explainations, not quick one-liners. as we go on. i don't put much stock in first day theories anyway (althought there is no reason not to give them and ear and think them through.) so that's that, ill be voting in prolly 15-30 minutes...

ps. somewhere along the line, someone said something about me and glirdan being enmeshed in accusations (suspicious suspicion, i believe they siad. i rather like that. ;) ) anyway, for my part i dont' really suspect him right now. do you really think glirdan would allow himself to come under speculation this early. i always thought he had a fairly sound head on his shoulders. again no reason to not suspect him...but you get the point.

;)

[Kath]

Ah Menel's back. Oh dear, with no helpful comments. Well we'll have to wait and see I suppose. Now I have to be wandering and this is the last time I'll get to post before the voting deadline closes. I don't want to cause a double-lynch but nor do I find Wayne suspicious enough to vote for him. So I'm voting now in the hope that someone will follow me and make it a single-lynch, whether they vote for Wayne or my candidate. However, if Wayne doesn't start making a more substantial contribution I'll likely vote for him tomorrow. I'm a great believer in giving someone a chance, but if it's wasted then too bad!

I'm going for

++wilwa

She just seems overly defensive every time someone so much as mentions her name. As far as I recall she didn't make any substantial posts either which makes me wonder if she's the obligatory 'quiet' wolf.

EDIT: crossposted with Eonwe - will now make sure to refer to you as he!

[wilwarin538]

I believe I explained in the original thread how hard it is for me to help. I post as often as possible and most of my posts are fairly long. Like I said, I'm trying.

Yes I defended myself, for a reason that probably doesn't make much sense to most people, but it makes sense to me. I would have been fine if Bergil had voted for me out of randomness, its what a lot of people do on day one. But the fact that he tried to justify his vote with a very bad reason, just seems wierd to me.

Wayne, is suspicioius of Glirdan and Bergil, then goes and does what he found suspicious about them.

I'm debating whether I should jump on the Wayne bandwagon or vote for Bergil and make a tie. Eather one could get me in a lot of trouble later. :rolleyes:

Soooo, after a lot of thinking I will vote for:

++BERGIL

EDIT: crossposted with Kath, hmmmmmm

[littlemanpoet]

LMP – starts off in character but then moves on to suggestions. Appears to ally with Firefoot. Comes out with leader plan, then points out its flaws but says it would still work. Attacks Glirdan for attacking it. Then admits it was flawed on purpose and as a result suspects those who seemed to support it, ie Bergil, Kitanna and tar-ancamilie. HOWEVER: he sets great store by how quick people were to oppose his plan, overlooking that he posted his plan at 2 am for some of us. This is flawed logic which makes me worry that his plan was spurious. (He also says I was posting in character, in fact this amounted to just half a sentence. But I’m prepared to overlook that slur) Doesn't suspect Kitanna anymore, very much, still suspects Bergil but doesn't feel right about tar-ancamile at all and so votes for her.Just to set the record straight, I did not bring up the plan fully aware of its flaws; I brought it up as a rough idea that I had been carrying in my head for some time, for discussion. The discussion occurred, and I'm pleased that it finally helped bring some much needed content to our discussions by which we could better determine who might be a werewolf.

You make a valid point regarding 2a.m. where some of you are, and that is something that I overlooked. Did I miss some pretty obvious messages to the effect of "I'm in this time zone and therefore I won't be responding from such a time to such a time"? If so, I apologize.

That having been said, I'll spend the Night dreaming up a new plan, if that helps to motivate discussion. We shall see what we shall see.

[Eonwe]

votes are now:

Wilwa --> 2 (Bergil, Kath)
Eonwe --> 1 (Glirdan)
Bergil --> 2 (Wayne, Wilwa)
Lalaith --> 1 (Firefoot)
Anguriel --> 1 (tar)
Tar --> 1 (LMP)
Wayne --> 2 (Anguriel, Celuin)
Celuien --> 1 (Kittanna)
Kath --> 1 (Eonwe)

and we have three votes left. (now. meaning after edit. sorry.)

ill go with

++Kath

i chose the seventh person on the list :o . so much for reading through the posts...

im not very opinionated on the first day, and am willing to give people the benefit of the doubt for a good while. especially wayne. cut him some slake. ehem, but back sure so step it up some, my friend. i won't vote you off because i don't like how much you post (or don't post!), but still, its not very helpful.

edit cross posted with wilwa and lmp. the votes are accurate up until wilwas. (and fixed my bold :rolleyes: )

[littlemanpoet]

Kuruharan, Lalaith, & Meneltarmacil still have to vote, and they have about 15 minutes. If they don't vote, we have a three way tie, from which the Moddess Goddess will pick to at random. Hope to see some votes!

[Anguirel]

You make a valid point regarding 2a.m. where some of you are, and that is something that I overlooked. Did I miss some pretty obvious messages to the effect of "I'm in this time zone and therefore I won't be responding from such a time to such a time"? If so, I apologize.


Oh come, come. I don't see you mentioning your timezone every second post for safety's sake. There's no reason why a lot of us should be branded as suspicious just because our waking hours don't correspond to the reactions you want to your wee scheme. Constant gabbling about absences clutters things up; we should just be considerate enough to avoid building up cases against people on the strength of when, rather than what, they contribute.

[wilwarin538]

So if Im right, if no one comes and votes its me and Wayne thats out? Since the second vote for me and the second vote for Wayne came before the second vote for bergil and I don't believe spawn wants more then a double.

Am I right?

Crosspoted with Anguirel and LMP, does she really pick two at random?

[Lalaith]

Eonwe, you're acting weird now and my faith in you is shaking slightly.

But anyway, as there is now a three way tie I must and will vote. I'm torn between wilwa and Bergil. I can see arguments for voting for either.

++BERGIL

I feel sorry for wilwa after reading her plea. I hope my pity isn't misplaced.

PS LMP, I for one said "I'm going to bed now, I'll be back online in nine hours." Also, as spawn said game starts at 9pm GMT, it doesn't take much to realise that those of us actually on GMT go to bed 2-4 hours after each game period starts.
But hey, we all overlook stuff, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. For now.

[littlemanpoet]

Oh come, come. I don't see you mentioning your timezone every second post for safety's sake. There's no reason why a lot of us should be branded as suspicious just because our waking hours don't correspond to the reactions you want to your wee scheme. Constant gabbling about absences clutters things up; we should just be considerate enough to avoid building up cases against people on the strength of when, rather than what, they contribute.
My dear sir, I did apologize. By (ahem) gabbling about pretty obvious messages, I meant to leave room for in-character type references that I should have picked up on. Upbraid me, will you, foul villain! Where is your court that you are the jester of? Does this village need its own jester? Are you angry that I'm suspicious of you? Are you a werewolf? ;)

[littlemanpoet]

LMP, I for one said "I'm going to bed now, I'll be back online in nine hours." Also, as spawn said game starts at 9pm GMT, it doesn't take much to realise that those of us actually on GMT go to bed 2-4 hours after each game period starts.
But hey, we all overlook stuff, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. For now.
Quite right, and thank you for the overlooking, and I apologize again, just to be sure. Now to go and dream up a new plan, or something, toNight. Good night all, I have a dais that needs being kept company. (yes, I know, gruesome to think LMP sleeps on the same "bed" the corpse was laid out on, but it's the only bed I have, so deal with it.) :P

[Anguirel]

You say that I am a werewolf. I say I am not in the mind that I am. (This is called the Retort Courteous.)

You say it again. I say you very well could be a werewolf as well. This is called the Quip Modest.

You say it again. I doubt your judgement. This is called the Reply Churlish.

You once more say I am a Werewolf. I say you speak not true. This is called the Reproof Valiant.

You say it once again. I say you lie. This is called the Countercheck Quarrelsome.

And so to the Lie Circumstantial and the Lie Direct...

[Lalaith]

LMP sleeps on the same "bed" the corpse was laid out on

I'll be dreaming of something far worse than new plans after that little "too-much-information" nugget. Ew.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The villagers had quickly got over Spawn's death (frankly, they had found her fish stories rather irritating, anyway) and entered into more or less profound discussions in order to eradicate the wolves. The votes scattered around, but finally Bergil had been elected for the most untrustworthy resident. "The tribe has spoken", Bergil sighed scornfully, and sat down to wait his death.

Now the villagers just had to decide, how to lynch him. After a while, they agreed to get rid of Bergil by hanging him because they had heard that that's what you do to werewolves. Only, there was no gallows tree in Shamville... Luckily, there were plenty of resourceful people in the Village, and after grumbling and blaming each other for a while for the lack of a gibbet (at this point the village undertaker received irritated looks), they conjured up a way to hang Bergil, nonetheless.

There was a big ravine on the border of the village, and a swaying suspension bridge had been built across it. Resolutely the villagers slipped a noose over Bergil's head and tied the other end of the rope to the bridge's parapet.

"Any last words?" they asked.

"Seriously, guys, you're making a mistake!" Bergil cried. "This is a judicial murder!"

And with that, the villagers heaved him over the rail. Yelling heartbreakingly, Bergil fell down until the rope ended. And then he fell a bit more before the cord yanked him up. Apparently someone had replaced the hanging rope with an elastic one (at this point the town jester received irritated looks). The villagers stood on the bridge, watching Bergil yo-yoing between the bottom of the ravine and the bridge, and listening his wailing, then wheezing, until his neck snapped.
The villagers had killed an innocent, but on the other hand, they had discovered the Doppler effect (the original name was the Bergil effect, but some guy changed it after a few years...) and invented bungee jumping. All in all, the villagers had had quite a productive day.



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Celuien - luthier
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Kath - writer
Kitanna - goat herder
Kuruharan - local lorekeeper
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
Meneltarmacil - dinosaur researcher/ fossil hunter
tar-ancalime - charlatan
WaynetheGoblin - goldsmith
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1

Score:
Villagers: 14
Wolves: 3

It is now Night 2. Villagers, go to sleep (i.e. pipe down, please). Wolves, you may start PMing. Seer, Ranger, Hunter, you know, what to do. The Night ends in 24 hours at 9:00 pm. GMT.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

For clarification about mass lynchings: I don't like them. If there ever is a three way tie, I will pick one or two of the candidates to lynch; it's up to me and my randomness. Oh, and their deaths will be incredibly boring. :p Thank you. :)

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

"Yesterday all my troubles seemed so far away
Now it looks as though they're here to stay
Oh I believe in Yesterday
Suddenly, I'm not half the man I used to be"



The villagers woke up that morning feeling as cheerful as a burned pancake, and reluctantly they strolled to the village square. It didn't take long to notice that there were only 13 residents left in Shamville, and the local lorekeeper was the one to be missing.

As one man (and a dog) the villagers hurried to Kuruharan's cottage. They didn't bother to knock but rushed in right away. The very moment when the villagers stepped over the threshold, a sickening smell puffed to greet them. Taken aback, the lot followed the stench to Kuruharan's kitchen, where an X-rated sight met their eyes.

Kuruharan laid on the floor in such condition that the villagers hardly recognised him. Huge chunks of flesh had been rended from his face and body, his stomach had been slashed open and his internal organs had been piled up on the kitchen table. A blood-stained book of folklore laid open next to the organs. "Chapter 13, traditional foods", the villagers read. "Haggis - a large spherical sausage. Haggis is made by stuffing a sheep's or other animal's stomach lining with a minced mixture of organs. Take the heart, lungs, liver and kidneys of the animal, chop them up, add suet, onions, oatmeal, cayenne pepper..." Realizing the wolves' ghastly cooking attempt and bad sense of humour, the villagers left the death-reeking house and went to get some breakfast.



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Celuien - luthier
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Kath - writer
Kitanna - goat herder
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
Meneltarmacil - dinosaur researcher/ fossil hunter
tar-ancalime - charlatan
WaynetheGoblin - goldsmith
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1
Kuruharan(ord) - half devoured and prepared to be turned into haggis on Night 2

Score:
Villagers: 13
Wolves: 3


It is now Day 2. Wolves, stop PMing, please. Villagers, you know your job. Have a nice Day. It ends in 24 hours at 9:00 pm. GMT.

[wilwarin538]

The votes from yesterDay:

Wilwa --> 2 (Bergil, Kath)
Eonwe --> 1 (Glirdan)
Bergil --> 3 (Wayne, Wilwa, Lalaith)
Lalaith --> 1 (Firefoot)
Anguriel --> 1 (tar)
Tar --> 1 (LMP)
Wayne --> 2 (Anguriel, Celuin)
Celuien --> 1 (Kittanna)
Kath --> 1 (Eonwe)

I'll be back momentarily with my thoughts on everyone.

[Firefoot]

Oh, dear, poor Kuru. He was one of the two who didn't vote, as well, so we can't even use that for speculation. That may have even been a contributing factor in the wolves' choice. Will have to look over anything he said more carefully and see if there wasn't anything telling.

For the record, the final voting was (with innocents underlined):

Wilwa – 2 (Bergil 1, Kath 9)
Eonwe – 1 (Glirdan 2)
Lalaith – 1 (Firefoot 4)
Anguirel – 1 (tar-ancalime 5)
Tar-ancalime – 1 (LMP 6)
Wayne – 2 (Ang 7, Celuien 8)
Celuien – 1 (Kitanna 9)
Bergil – 2 (Wayne 3, Wilwa 11, Lalaith 13)
Kath 1 (Eonwe 12)

Did not vote: Kuru, Menel

I was about to post this yesterDay but it ended too soon, so here are some comments I had made:

Some of you have commented on my lack of substance and for that I apologize; most of my participation was early in the Day due to timezone difficulties when there really wasn't much to comment on (I was tired, too; very little rest before arriving at this village); this morning really was rushed, and I really would be rushed now.

Just to clear a thing or two up: Lalaith, I did not vote for you because you were suspicious of me. I voted for you felt suspicious to me at the time. I will have to analyze further to decide if that is still the case; a lengthy analysis will be coming on the next Day (provided that I'm still alive, of course).

...(current voting)...

I don't think we're going to be able to take much out of this [the voting]. It's entirely too spread out - more than half the villagers have received votes. It's way too easy for wolves to hide in something like that.

I will be working on an analysis now, will be posted within a couple hours. I had the barest start on it, and so far only one thing has really jumped out at me, and that's this comment of Ang's:We need to keep ourselves wrapped in earnest debate, lynching each other, while around us our comrades drop like flies. A well-tried and tested strategy, though some have doubted its efficacy... The wording is extremely eerie to me. Maybe it's nothing, but it caught my eye as a "Wait a minute - what is that?" type of comment.

[Lalaith]

I think the wolves thought Kuru might be the seer. Why did they think that? I need to go back through his posts to find out....

[Lalaith]

Lalaith, I did not vote for you because you were suspicious of me. I voted for you felt suspicious to me at the time.

Just saw this, Firefoot. There's been a bit of a misunderstanding...my comment about "bad form" referred to myself, not to you, that I felt a bit bad about suspecting you just because you suspected me.
If you look at my posts, you'll see I hadn't suspected you up til then, but because you'd been insistent about quality rather than quantity, and then voted for me without really explaining why, I felt suspicious.
Does that clarify things?

[Firefoot]

Yes, I think so.

Okay, I've done a brief scanning of all Kuru's posts and the people who have mentioned him. He was generally considered innocent, though Kath and Lalaith and to a lesser extent Menel all found him suspicious. Lalaith was also pretty comfortable with Kath. This would seem pretty obvious, though. Kuru didn't make a whole lot of accusations. Most of his posts were spent discussing strategy and plans rather than individuals. He encouraged flexibility and plan-lessness on the villagers' part, which I basically agree with. There really isn't all that much there - I can see why the wolves would kill him - he is smart, but killing him doesn't leave a whole lot of tracks.

[Anguirel]

Firefoot, would a wolf be stupid enough to use actively eerie language?

The answer is, of course, you don't know. You haven't the faintest idea, unless you jump to conclusions. Ignorance here is a sign of sagacity. Truly foolery can be wise.

But I must stop verbally knotting, or I fear my neck will be physically knotted.

The wolves selected their prey well; Kuruharan was an ideal victim, one of our best analysts and sagest speakers, but his lack of a vote and of much suspicion leaves little evidence. I suspect that the wolves took his unwonted quietness as a sign that he might be a Gifted One ducking out of cover.

The only disadvantage, then, from the lupine perspective, is that few villagers are strongly framed for this killing. The only ones to have overtly suspected Kuru were Kath and Menel. I see Menel's lack of strong reasoning, together with his missed vote, as quite deep indicators, but Kath also bears watching. She offered a damning critique of Kuru, unhindered by a a vote, when everything was still in the air lynching-wise.

But my suspicions of these two pale in contrast with the extremely talkative LMP. Kuru suspected him and was onto his game; he brushed off such analysis, turned the other cheek and left Kuru alone. LMP seems almost impossible to be Gifted as he is so much in the forefront of our debates; so a vote for him might be considered "safe". I also found the fact that he condemned me and then voted for my accuser tar-ancalime pretty suspicious; a wolf, knowing he had an innocent in his sights, hedging his bets, it seems to me. If this was a wolf-for-wolf vote, perhaps he also hoped to clear himself to preserve his role as unappointed leader...

[littlemanpoet]

Botheration! Two more bodies! How am I going to find time to make an appropriate tombstone, let alone think of an appropriate epitaph for Spawn, if I have to take care of two more bodies each day? It's unfair I tell you, not to mention most deplorable for those whose lives are lost. The loremaster was a good man, and now he's just sausage. A shame. Well, I hope you don't mind if I keep a listening ear on the discussions whilst dressing out and putting back together the corpses. I promise you a most presentable showing later in the day.

I don't think we're going to be able to take much out of this [the voting]. It's entirely too spread out - more than half the villagers have received votes. It's way too easy for wolves to hide in something like that.

My sentiments exactly. We need to find a way to narrow it down. So I dreamt, and I dreamt, and I thought and thought, and I've seen my way to a new plan, based on the old plan: have a non-binding straw vote, to be finished half-way through the Day, by which we choose the three candidates that will be up for lynching that Day. The werewolves will find it harder to hide their votes amongst just three choices. The one so-called "flaw" this plan may have that I can see, is that through the course of the day it may become obvious to one or more of us that someone who is not one of the three up for lynching, should be, and one of the three who is up for lynching, should not. I suggest that if such a thing occurs, a simple majority of us agreeing on the change may achieve it.

Now, whereas yesterDay's plan had obvious flaws (once discussion started mind you), this plan seems to me like it would go a long way toward helping us limit the influence the werewolves could have on our voting. Let me explain. I am betting that at least one of the werewolves voted for someone new (which does happen to include me, I realize). And I'm betting that at least one of them spread their votes out over those who had more than one vote against them. Therefore, in my opinion, those who voted for someone new, and those who added a second vote for someone, ought to get a really hard look today. Now, I realize that time zone has an effect on voting to a certain degree; but late voting because you are in a 'late' time zone is no free ticket from suspicion. So I don't want to hear any whining about 'LMP, you're overlooking that I'm in a later time zone than most of you, and that's why I voted when I did.' It's too easy to hide behind that kind of excuse, so I'm not giving anyone who uses that a free ticket to innocence.

Oh, and one last thing, my "presumed innocent" list was provisional. Everybody's starting from scratch with me, including Firefoot. I would expect no different an approach from her.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I dont know why the wolves would kill him either it dosent make sense. The only thing he said was about the voting. I will look back at peoples post and say my suspicions soon.

[Lalaith]

I suspect that the wolves took his unwonted quietness as a sign that he might be a Gifted One
I think that's the answer to my earlier question. Plus failure to vote, failure to commit himself to anyone, suspect-wise...

[Kath]

Wayne. We would like some substance from you today please. So when you say who you are suspicious of could we please have proper reasons and maybe some proof from posts?

Kuru's death seems a little odd. I never really saw him as a gifted of any sort let alone the Seer, just an innocent trying to figure things out same as the rest of us (minus three). I'd have another look at his posts but maybe it's a better idea to look at people who supported him yesterday. Anyone who thought he was the Seer would have offered support, or at least kept him off their suspicion lists. Therefore a wolf may likely have done the same, in order to avoid suspicion if they killed him. I'll go find out who those people were in a bit.

[Anguirel]

LMP's approach contradicts the dead loremaster's advice so heavily that it's really worth making a comparison.



I also think there is a danger here for villagers in attempting to be too formulaic and rigid. Flexibility and adaptability are key here. That is why I am usually not too big on "plans." Best to keep an open mind.

I must note that littlemanpoet has been talking...a lot. This is not necessarily bad. In fact, it might be good. On the other hand, it might indicate he is unduly excited about...something.

I am glad to see that the votes are spread out so far. I hope that continues.


His first statement might as well read "I don't hold with planmongery, whether it wears well or no." With that I wholeheartedly agree. Spontaneity achieves what rigidity cannot imagine.

His second statement amounts to an unformed but healthy suspicion of LMP's verbosity.

Finally, he appeals that votes remain spread out.

Yet it seems to me that Our Lord High Undertaker And Presiding Superintendent In Charge Of Timezones Who Drops Hints About Being A Seer In His Spare Time is now advocating-wait for it-an inflexible plan based on democratic and so suspect means, that involves narrowing the candidates for lynching to an arbitrarily selected trio.

I'm only a jester, for all you know at any rate, but it seems mighty peculiar to me. A vote for LMP seems rather more than a shot in the dark, though it may amount to the same thing...oops, I'm going "eerie" again.

I will be sleeping and working for most of the middle part of toDay.

[littlemanpoet]

Second Voters:

Kath for Wilwa,
Celuien for Wayne,
Wilwa for Bergil.

Of these, Kath's & Celuien's are less suspicious, having come not so late. Wilwa is looking pretty suspicious, being the 2nd voter for the innocent Bergil.

Late New Voters:

Eonwe for Kath
Kitanna for Celuien
Anguirel for Wayne, but he gave very early indication that this was likely to happen.
LMP for tar ancalime

Eonwe's vote was the latest, and therefore quite suspicious; the same can be said for Kitanna. Anguirel's vote was not so late, and declared far ahead of time.

My vote, as Anguirel notes, went to tar ancalime instead of him; admittedly, it was a coin toss. As I mentioned late yesterday, Kitanna was fading from my suspect list and Anguirel was finding a place there. He seems to be pointing at me for suspicion largely because I've posted a lot, which is as spurious as most things our fool has said in jest. Of the two, I foundtar ancalime's cool, even chilly, analysis, to seem more werewolvish to me than the hot-headed foolishness and diatribes of Anguirel. That is the reason why I voted the way I did yesterDay.

I'm quite happy to be suspected by someone; the werewolves may leave me alive a little bit longer, so go ahead, feel free to suspect, even cast votes my way; just understand that lynching me will be something you regret.

[Lalaith]

So I don't want to hear any whining

Excuse me, Mr Undertaker, who died and made you King of Shamville?

[wilwarin538]

Here are my thoughts:

Anguirel - said he'd vote for Wayne no matter what, just cause of Wayne's unhelpfulness, that seems wierd, but he's probably at a "I'm not to sure but I think he's innocent" place
Celuien - seems helpful, though she could just be a very smart wolf, she's at a half way point with me
Eonwe - not sure about Eonwe, at all, I just don't get a vibe from him of any sort, I'll need to hear more from him
Firefoot - I'm going to trust her, she is helpful, nothing seems to put up a red flag about her
Glirdan - flip plops a lot(as always) but this time it seems different, something weird is going on with this boy, I'm leaning towards him being guilty
Kath - suspicious of me for defending myself. I suppose she had a point, I think I was just getting a little frightened about being the first voted for, she to is at a half way point with me
Kitanna - didn't get much from her eather, but I'm going to go with her probably being innocent
Lalaith - the one I'm most suspicious of, talks a lot, not always with a lot of info, something is just not right with her
littlemanpoet - another who I'm thinking is innocent, he's got good plans, I trust him
Meneltarmacil - hmmm, not really sad enough, considering the circumstances, he's half way between the half way point and the guilty point
tar-ancalime - see Eonwe
WaynetheGoblin - suspcious of Glirdan and Bergil, doesn't really give much reason why, definetely on my suspet list

So to summarize:

Least Suspicious: Firefoot, LMP
Not very Suspicious: Anguirel, Kitanna
Half and Half: Celuien, Kath
Not to sure: Eonwe, tar-ancalime
Fairly Suspicious: Menel
Very Suspicious: Lalaith, Wayne, Glirdan

I believe thats everyone.

So far my vote will probably be going to Lalaith. I'll reread all her posts yet again and come back with a list of reasons.

crossposted with kath, Anguirel, lmp and Lalaith

[littlemanpoet]

LMP's approach contradicts the dead loremaster's advice so heavily that it's really worth making a comparison... Let me remind you, my dear foolish jester, that there are three werewolves, not one. Have you no other suspects? The sheer ferocity and vituperitiveness of your attack, Anguirel, must be accounted for in my mind. Why would an innocent Ang do this? Because he thinks he's found a werewolf? Because he feels insulted? Because he's getting so deep into the chaos of his jester character that he's forgetting to think clearly? Or, why would a werewolf Ang do this? It would seem to be a dangerous thing for a werewolf to do, unless he's afraid that I'm on to things, and therefore is making a huge effort to make me look suspicious, hoping that I'll get lynched so he doesn't have to kill me toNight? That seems an unwise strategy, but then maybe again our jester is that deep into his character? Or, is he being this feral now, and will lay off later, conveniently pointing his lycanthroping finger in a new direction? We will have to wait and see.

His first statement might as well read "I don't hold with planmongery, whether it wears well or no." With that I wholeheartedly agree. Spontaneity achieves what rigidity cannot imagine.Different approaches.

His second statement amounts to an unformed but healthy suspicion of LMP's verbosity.As I recall, Kuru laid it out both ways as I have just done regarding you above. Keep your facts straight, my fool. Oh, and what I'm excited about is playing this game. I love it! :D

Yet it seems to me that Our Lord High Undertaker And Presiding Superintendent In Charge Of Timezones Who Drops Hints About Being A Seer In His Spare Time is now advocating-wait for it-an inflexible plan based on democratic and so suspect means, that involves narrowing the candidates for lynching to an arbitrarily selected trio. Thou dost play a most drippingly sarcastic fool, my feral friend. Well done!

I'm only a jester, for all you know at any rate, but it seems mighty peculiar to me. A vote for LMP seems rather more than a shot in the dark, though it may amount to the same thing...oops, I'm going "eerie" again. Simply put, you're wrong. And the werewolves love it .... unless you're one of them. Remember, there are three werewolves, not one. I hope sleep brings some more sensibleness your way, my good fool.

[littlemanpoet]

Excuse me, Mr Undertaker, who died and made you King of Shamville?So lynch me for being frank? Please lynch me for being a werewolf, if that's what you think. Just calling a spade a spade, otherwise. But come, I may come off strongheaded, but please pay attention to what I say, not how I say it, or we'll never catch the wolves. Capiche?

[Kath]

Right so those people would be:
Kitanna - hmm, half of me thinks Kuru is a wolf and half of me doesn't. For some reason that comment made me pause. To be watched today methinks.
LMP (possibly)
Lalaith
Celuien
tara

Now I am not really keen on proposing that LMP and Kuru are wolves making a plot in the middle of the Day because they could so easily wait until toNight but it still made me think.
Posted by me yesterday, though now it is obvious that I was wrong. I suppose that should put LMP in the clear, except that was only ever a vague thought and I'm still not completely comfortable with him. Pfft.

[wilwarin538]

Wilwa is looking pretty suspicious, being the 2nd voter for the innocent Bergil.

I voiced my suspicion, and my plan to vote vote for Bergil, at the same time Wayne voted for him. I didn't know until after my post had shown up that Wayne had voted.

Basically I didn't plan to vote for Bergil 2nd, it's just the timing of mine and Wayne's posts.

I'm extremely sorry for being a part of Bergil's death, but at the time it seemed like a good choice.

[Lalaith]

but please pay attention to what I say, not how I say it,
Of course I'm paying attention to what you say. I'm paying attention to what everyone says, because I'm trying to catch out a wolf.
But I can't see how that this attitude of "do what I say or else you'll be thought guilty" is helpful, not from you or anyone else.

[Glirdan]

Oh no!! Not more innocent souls to come and join me underground.

I just briefly scanned the posts so if I repeat thing already said, that's why.

I knew Bergil was innocent. His vote was just randomness. I knew it was simply that and I stated that.

As for Kuru, I have no idea why he would be the one to get attacked. Is it because he hit close to the mark on some accusations and the Wolves thought he might guess at them and reveal them? Or did the Wolves choose Kuru randomly?

Now it's time to looke closely at the people who voted for Kuru and Bergil. There has to be a Wolf concealed in there, or maybe all three of them.

Wayne, Wilwa, Lalaith all voted for Bergil and there were no votes for Kuru, which gives even moer reason for me to believe that Kuru was a random choice.

Of those three, Wayne seems most suspicious. He suspects Bergil of his unreasonable reason vote for Wilwa (yes I did suspect him, but I said that he was probably just an innocent choosing at random) then goes and votes for him as did Wilwa and Lalaith (I believe, I'll have to recheck that)

For now those three are suspicious, but Wayne most of all. I'll go back and read what others have said later.

[littlemanpoet]

Basically I didn't plan to vote for Bergil 2nd, it's just the timing of mine and Wayne's posts.

Thanks for pointing that out, Wilwa. I'll take it into my considerations.

[littlemanpoet]

Of course I'm paying attention to what you say. I'm paying attention to what everyone says, because I'm trying to catch out a wolf.
But I can't see how that this attitude of "do what I say or else you'll be thought guilty" is helpful, not from you or anyone else.Why, pray, are you attributing an attitude to me that I do not have? If you read this from what I have said, please quote it for me so I can disabuse you of your illusions, m'dear.

*Sorry, Kuru, I really am trying to get all of these back in there, but all these wild accusations flying my way are quite distracting.*

[Kath]

Is it because he hit close to the mark on some accusations and the Wolves thought he might guess at them and reveal them?
Well, let's have a look at who he accused.

littlemanpoet is developing some strange habits
Don't know whether to count this really as it was in his first post. But maybe he saw something early on.

I must note that littlemanpoet has been talking...a lot. This is not necessarily bad. In fact, it might be good. On the other hand, it might indicate he is unduly excited about...something.
Then again perhaps against LMP.

And that was actually all we had from him. So LMP - would you like to refute the words of the dead?

[wilwarin538]

My reasons for suspecting Lalaith:

She started of yesterday in a very bad mood, got very snappy with Anguirel(who was only playing his part)

She pulled the very over used "I don't expect you to believe me, but I'm not a wolf" routine.

She then became suddenly very nice and more helpful, posting everyone's actions up to a certain post and keeping track of the votes.

Shows a little of mercy by not voting for me, going for the sweet thing again.

ToDay, she goes from sweet to snappy again.

If you ask me we have ourselves a Jackel/Hyde.

( I know this sounds very mean and all, sorry bout that, I just want my point to get across :rolleyes: )

crossposted with Kath

[Glirdan]

We need to keep ourselves wrapped in earnest debate, lynching each other, while around us our comrades drop like flies. A well-tried and tested strategy, though some have doubted its efficacy...

Thank you for pointing this out to me Firefoot m'dear. As soon as I read it, I stopped and sunddenly got a chill up and down what's left of my spine (stupid rocks, trying to break my fall when I'm falling off a cliff into water). I'm more suspicious of Ang today then I was yesterday. And then Ang being suspicious of Lmp for the plan he made yesterday as well tells me that something's not right. Yes I did think Lmp suspicious for the same reason, but then I passed it off as a "He's just trying to be a helpful villager". That doesn't mean, however, that he is cleared from suspicion.

I voiced my suspicion, and my plan to vote vote for Bergil, at the same time Wayne voted for him. I didn't know until after my post had shown up that Wayne had voted.

Basically I didn't plan to vote for Bergil 2nd, it's just the timing of mine and Wayne's posts.

I'm extremely sorry for being a part of Bergil's death, but at the time it seemed like a good choice.

I'll take this into account Wilwa, but you're not cleared from my list either. I'd also like a more profound explanation from you as to why you think I'm suspicious. Is it just because I flip flop around? Or is there more to it than that?

Suspicious:
Wilwa
Wayne
Ang
Lalaith

*That list is not in any general order
**I'll probably be voting around the same time today or earlier because of time zone differences.

[wilwarin538]

Is it just because I flip flop around? Or is there more to it than that?

Ya, thats pretty much it. But you always do that, you're just doing it differently this time. I know that doesn't make sense, but it does to me. You just seem to be acting strangely.

[Glirdan]

But you always do that, you're just doing it differently this time.

*Ok people, Spawn's already said this but I'm going to say it again. No bringing up past games or talking like this is a game. So what ever so and so might have done in another game, don't assume anything off of that.*

I see, but that's how us undead folk act you know. Strange and eeire like. We are dead who've come back to life after all. (:rolleyes:, that was stupis so ignore it) As for you suspecting me, there has to be more reason to it than just that I flip-flop around a lot. I know I changed my mind quickly about Lmp and Bergil, but I was never overly suspicious of Bergil. And Lmp is still not quite cleared of suspicion in my eyes. I don't know what to think of Eonwe any more. I'm very confused at what to think of Eonwe. I can't really gather anything else off of the others yet.

Menel and anyone else, is there any particular reason you guys suspected me yesterDay? Or are they the same reasons as Wilwa's?

What you said about Lalaith and her Jackal/Hyde type act made me think as well. Naturally, makes her even more suspicious in my eyes.

[wilwarin538]

there has to be more reason to it than just that I flip-flop around a lot

I personally think that should be reason enough.

**and actaully its more we can't say "back in WW2", we can say things like, "Oh his attitude is nothing new", as long as we don't directely refer to a past game its ok**

[Lalaith]

LMP, it was this kind of comment that riled me:
'LMP, you're overlooking that I'm in a later time zone than most of you, and that's why I voted when I did.' It's too easy to hide behind that kind of excuse, so I'm not giving anyone who uses that a free ticket to innocence.
It seemed to me that you were saying anyone who doesn't fall into line with your plans would be in trouble. If that's not the way you meant it, fine, I accept that.

As for Wilwa:
She pulled the very over used "I don't expect you to believe me, but I'm not a wolf" routine.

Hmmm, my dear, that "routine", as you put it, was merely in response to Kath, asking for responses from 5,10, and 15 on the list. Firefoot, me and you. I responded quickly and honestly. You responded...not at all. (Nor indeed did Firefoot)

Glirdan, I explained yesterday why I suspected you, you'll find the reasons in my long post made mid-afternoon.

But look, there's a whole bunch of us arguing here, but there are some villagers that are kind of slipping under the radar. I need to go to bed now (and no corpses on my dais, Mr funny-business Undertaker) but I'm going to look at this all with a fresh eye tomorrow.

[Firefoot]

Okay, here's my analysis of Day 1, since I coudn't do it yesterday. It's probably not complete, as I was trying to gather general thoughts of everyone rather than target people. Also, I was getting lazy towards the end (I've been working on this for too long). Now at least I know who I'm primarily focusing on. I have read up on the Day 2 stuff, but not gone through it thoroughly. It does not contribute to this.

Anguirel
Suspects: Glirdan; Kath, Menel, Firefoot, Glirdan, Eonwe, Celuien; Wayne (for lack of posting)
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Wayne

General: Some back-and-forth with Lalaith at the start, encourages lots of talking; Disagrees with LMP’s plan; dislikes Wayne’s lack of substance and intends to vote for him for that reason. I find him rather suspicious. It’s mild suspicion, mostly because I haven’t found much to really back it up. But I’m definitely watching him.

Celuien
Suspects: (mildly:) Glirdan, Bergil, Wayne, tar-ancalime;
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Wayne

General: Early on, has seen nothing so far suspicious, brief summary of so far happenings; refuses to make random accusations; disagrees with LMP’s plan. She’s not too suspicious to me. I have followed what she has said, I haven’t seen anything to make me suspect her.

Eonwe
Suspects:
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Kath (randomly)

General: Wants everyone to explain their theories in depth; responds to Menel that the wolves would have to be very lazy to have to communicate publicly with other wolves during day; says random voting is pretty much the only way to go on Day 1, rating helpfulness is useless; thinks LMP’s plan is worthy, but doesn’t want to be leader; clarifies to say he doesn’t want to use the plan yet, but wait till later. He’s somewhere in the middle for me. I’d like to hear some more concrete suspicions from him.

Glirdan
Suspects: Celuien, Kath, tar-ancalime (apparently serious); LMP (later retracted), Eonwe, Bergil;
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Eonwe

General: Mostly jesting accusations of everyone, though with some serious thrown in; seems to suspect LMP not based on content of plan but because it is a plan – could be a wolf trying to influence events too much; now disagrees with LMP’s plan based on content. He is all over the place, and rather suspicious to me. I will gather opinions from toDay and make some judgments from that.

Kath
Suspects: Menel (past experiences); mildly: Ang, Glirdan, stronger: Kuru, LMP, Wilwa;
Accuses: Firefoot, Lalaith, Wilwa (randomly);
Defends:
Votes: Wilwa

General: Says that she’s talking just to generate discussion; briefly disagrees with LMP’s plan, doesn’t really state specific reasons; In depth analysis of everyone over two posts; wants to hear more from Wayne. She seems pretty innocent to me. I haven’t really seen anything to make me suspect her.

Kitanna
Suspects: Glirdan; Bergil, Glirdan (both mild); Anguirel, Lalaith, tar-ancalime, Wilwa, Eonwe, Celuien
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Celuien

General: Agrees that talking without substance doesn’t help the village, dislikes Kuru’s idea of random voting without discussion but otherwise agrees with him; wants reasoning from Bergil about his vote, disagrees with LMP’s plan, thinks Glirdan changes his mind too much. Again, I don’t have too much reason to suspect her. She seems pretty innocent to me.

Lalaith
Suspects: Glirdan, Bergil, Wayne, Wilwa, LMP, Firefoot, Menel, Ang, Kuru (in order)
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Bergil

General: Some back and forth with Ang at the start, wants everyone to talk as much as they can; explicitly states that she is not a wolf; is glad for LMP’s plan as it gives something to discuss; long analysis of everyone, though with few of her own comments; says it’s too easy to vote for Wayne. She’s in the middle for me. Not really suspicious, though not quite cleared. There are other candidates that I find more suspicious than her.

littlemanpoet Suspects: Glirdan; mildly: Kitanna (retracted), Bergil, tar-ancalime, stronger: Celuien, Lalaith, Wayne, Wilwa, Kath (retracted quickly);
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: tar-ancalime

General: Agrees that talk with substance is necessary; suggests we elect leader; finds Eonwe’s assessment of his plan to be accurate; did not bring up plan fully conscious of flaws, wanted to generate discussion. He’s on my probably-innocent list right now. Though I disagreed with his plan, I can see the virtue in presenting a plan however flawed – they generate discussion. I’m not too concerned about him.

Meneltarmacil
Suspects: Lalaith; Lalaith, Kuru;
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes:

General: Suggests that Lalaith may be communicating with fellow wolves; disagrees with LMP’s plan. I’m not sure what to think about him. He’s in between.

tar-ancalime
Suspects: Ang, Bergil, Wayne
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Ang

General: In-character comments; doesn’t see any reason to use LMP’s plan, that it’s basically just a conscious band-wagon. I am somewhat suspicious of her. I’d like to hear more of substance.

WaynetheGoblin
Suspects: Glirdan, Bergil
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Bergil

General: Plain and simple, he’s brief and basically unhelpful. Definitely need to hear more from him, preferably something extensive.

Wilwarin538
Suspects: Wayne, Bergil
Accuses:
Defends:
Votes: Bergil

General: Jesting accusations of everyone, declares herself innocent; defends herself to Bergil. She is also in between. I have only mild suspicions of her.

Overall:
Suspicious:
Ang
Glirdan
Menel
Tar-ancalime
Wayne
Wilwa

In the middle:
Eonwe
Lalaith

Not too suspicious:
Celuien
Kath
Kitanna
LMP

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm sorry about my not voting yesterDay, as I'd lost track of time. For the record, at that point I wanted to vote for Glirdan.

Anyhow, I'm wondering if LMP is a wolf as well. Anguirel mentioned that he was dropping hints (extremely obvious ones that just about anybody would be able to pick up on in my opinion) about being a Seer. I was quite surprised that he survived the Night having practically admitted that he was the Seer a couple of times. I find it likely that he is really a wolf. However, if he is actually the Seer, I would not want to see him lynched toDay, so I'd like to get some more evidence against him before I vote for him.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Firefoot, maybe a few others

[Kitanna]

Kuru? Dead? But how can that be?

Well, I’ll take a look at his posts, but first…

In an attempt to avoid homework I went back to review everything after Bergil’s death. I went through everyone’s votes and came up with the following.

Bergil: Was the first to vote and he voted for Wilwa on the basis that her previous post did not take as long as she had claimed. Perhaps this vote seemed rash to the other villagers and thus sealed his fate.

Glirdan: He voted for Eonwe and had been targeting Eonwe as a suspect in most of his posts. He said he wasn’t satisfied with Eonwe’s defense, but also that his vote was random for the most part.

Wayne: Was the first to vote for Bergil and he also voiced suspicions about Glirdan. It appears he found both their votes odd. Now he did vote early on which is not as wolfish as waiting until the last minute. But many had already voiced concerns about Bergil by this point so the wolfish thing to do would be to cast the first stone and hope others follow…and in this case they did.

Firefoot: Voted for Lalaith. She mentions a few people who do not sit right with her or who she’d like to hear more from. She says her vote for Lalaith is just a feeling.

Tar: Puts in a vote for Anguriel. She says:

In the end, his net of suspicion is cast just a little too wide. I've got an unsubstantiated, first-DAY feeling that he's trying to divert our attention from something.

Also casts her suspicions on lmp and calls for more weighted posts from Wayne, Wilwa, Lalaith and Bergil.

lmp: Had said earlier he was suspicious of tar and then voted for her. He says she does not sit right with him, but he suspects Bergil as well. Also mentions Anguriel and his odd comment about nothing truly worthwhile being said on DAY one.

Anguriel: Votes for Wayne. In his actual vote post he didn’t really give his reason, but he had stated earlier that he would probably vote for Wayne because of Wayne’s short, rare, and usually unhelpful comments.

Celuien: Next in line to vote for Wayne and judging by the time between her post and Anguriel’s it was probably not a cross-post and it defiantly put Wayne in the lead. She mentioned Bergil as well so whoever she voted for would have garnered a second vote and put them ahead. Take from that what you will.

Me: I voted Celuien in a somewhat random drawing. I listed people I thought should stay alive for their reasonable posts.

Kath: Puts in the second vote for Wilwa. She finds Wilwa overly defensive and I agree and I will get to that in a moment. Asks for more from Wayne or she will vote for him tomorrow.

Wilwa: Is angered by Bergil’s vote for her because she disagrees with his reason. Causing a three-way tie. (though it appears she cross-posted so to her it would only have been a two-way tie between Bergil and Wayne) But to return to her defense and attack on Bergil. She says of course votes will be random, but she doesn’t approve of the random reason and vote of Bergil. Her defense seems somewhat…er…I don’t know what word I’m looking for, but I do find it odd. It appears she voted for Bergil simply because he voted for her. Now that can mean she is a wolf and he hit the nail on the head or she was just an innocent upset over his reason of making her seem guilty to the village.

Eonwe: Votes for Kath. Just seems to be random and drew Kath out because of the number she was on the list. Says he has nothing for day one.

Lalaith: Breaks the tie and seals Bergil’s fate. Mentions a shaky faith in Eonwe. Now she says she feels bad for Wilwa after reading her plea and usually wolves try to distance themselves from their fellow wolves on day one. Of course since wolves expect us to think that of them it is possible that Lalaith was drawing wolven comrade Wilwa closer to because wolves normally separate themselves. Or perhaps an innocent piggybacking a wolf.

Menel and Kuru did not vote. Menel, perhaps a reason as to why?

My suspect list:

Wilwa~ For her defense and plea against Bergil’s vote. It seemed as though she was doing all she could to throw off suspicion of herself. Then of course her vote for Bergil.

Wayne~ As the first to cast a vote for Bergil it is possible he tried to get others to follow because several had mentioned Bergil’s vote as strange and his reason too random.

And a distant third Lalaith

Lalaith~ for what could be taken as an attempt to save wolf fellow Wilwa from the noose. Though that is not the best reason which is why she is far down from Wilwa and Wayne.

Now there are a few others I will be watching, but for right now I am more concerned with those three I listed. I'm going to review all that Kuru said and all that as already been said today and I'll come back in a bit.

[wilwarin538]

but she doesn’t approve of the random reason and vote of Bergil

It was actaully just the reason I didn't like, like I said if he had just voted for me and claimed it random I wouldn't have defended myself at all. But he posted a reason, a bad reason, that just didn't make sense to me.

So really I voted for him because of the reason, not the vote.

[Glirdan]

So really I voted for him because of the reason, not the vote.

Which makes you even more suspicious. That seems like a very Wolfish way to defend oneself just because of a stupid and quite obviously (well, now it is anyway) random reason and vote. You are really high on my suspicion list now.

Suspects: Celuien, Kath, tar-ancalime (apparently serious); LMP (later retracted), Eonwe, Bergil;

Ahh, see. Celuien, Kath and tar were all randomness. That was my first post with a lot of random acusations. So those three really account for nothing on my suspect list and I don't suspect them right now either.

Lalaith, I do remember you saying that now. Sorry about that. I just wanted to know if there was more to it than said.

Now, there are a few people who haven't spoken in awhile and it's like they dropped off the face of the earth. I'd really like to hear more from Celuien, tar and Wayne. Tar and Celuien haven't said anything which makes me very uncomfortable and Wayne came and said the usual. Please, I'd like to have more input from you Wayne.

[Eonwe]

ok im back and have again skimmed most of what has been said. one quick thing and then ill be back with more: could we all try to put the names of teh people and the post number down when we quote. that would make things alot easier.

meaning: [quote=whomever in post #whatever]

i like being clear and haveing things clear. it just helps be able to follow and desifer what you are saying...which is what we're here for, right?

[wilwarin538]

Which makes you even more suspicious. That seems like a very Wolfish way to defend oneself just because of a stupid and quite obviously (well, now it is anyway) random reason and vote. You are really high on my suspicion list now.

That's the thing though, it wasn't very obviously random, cause when you randomly vote for someone you don't leave a reason, cause its random.

Look if I keep dwelling on my reason for the vote it'll get me in more trouble then I'm already in. I made a mistake with Bergil, I admited that. I don't want to make anymore mistakes, two is my max. My reason for voting for him was stupid now that I look at the situation from another point of view. But at the time it did make sense. It was my Day 1 mistake.

This is the last time I'm defending myself against this. Don't want to keep having to say the same thing over and over again. I also realise how overly defensive this sounds, I'm just really tiered and stressed and, ya. :rolleyes:

crossposted with Eonwe

[Celuien]

Now, there are a few people who haven't spoken in awhile and it's like they dropped off the face of the earth. I'd really like to hear more from Celuien, tar and Wayne. Tar and Celuien haven't said anything which makes me very uncomfortable and Wayne came and said the usual. Please, I'd like to have more input from you Wayne.

Sorry. I just got here. The dull RL reason for my tardiness is that my department got several consults this afternoon that I had to help out with, putting me almost 2 hours behind schedule. But that's not what you really want to hear. So here's the Shamville reason. I was *cough* trying out some new varnish at my shop and lost track of time.

Kuru's death is a puzzle to me. As for the suggestion that he was the Seer, I didn't notice anything yesterday that would have made me think that at all.

I'll review the recent events and return with analysis later...

[tar-ancalime]

Tar and Celuien haven't said anything which makes me very uncomfortable

As much as I hate to do it, I fear that I must cry "longitude." Concern has been expressed because I have not yet added my voice to toDAY's discussion. As it happens, I do not live on either side of the Atlantic, nor do I live on the American side of the Pacific. This in particular made me laugh:

But look, there's a whole bunch of us arguing here, but there are some villagers that are kind of slipping under the radar. I need to go to bed now (and no corpses on my dais, Mr funny-business Undertaker) but I'm going to look at this all with a fresh eye tomorrow.

I noted the time of this post: as Lalaith was going to bed it was 6 AM here.

I've now finished reading toDAY's posts and it's just after 7 AM. Glirdan, I hope this assuages your fears.

Because I have missed out on so much discussion and analysis of DAY 1, though, perhaps I can be most helpful by starting to parse what has been said toDAY thus far (as far as Wilwa's post # 134).

It seems that there are varying theories as to why Kuru was the unfortunate victim of those among us with base wolvish impulses:

Did the wolves think he was the Seer? Lalaith thinks so.

I have had to think about this quite a bit. It seems to me that Lalaith may be right about this. At first it seemed illogical--Kuru didn't do anything yesterDAY that would indicate his being a Gifted. But then I realized--Kuru was behaving exactly as a smart Seer would early in the game: present, with smart posts that didn't really point any fingers. I never would have thought of this, being a relative novice in the detection of wolves, but I think Lalaith may have hit on something here.

Now, I recognize that I'm flirting with danger by agreeing with one who has been the object of so much suspicion already toDAY (in post 112 Wilwa already asserts that Lalaith is likely to get her vote; Kath suspects her, as does Glirdan; and she's been in quite a shoving match with lmp). I have to admit some uneasiness with Lalaith myself, despite what I think is sound reasoning regarding Kuru's death: who better to expound the correct theory than a wolf? By showing us her hand in this way (explaining the reasons for Kuru's death) she's being "helpful," which is so valuable this early in the game; could she be a clever wolf trying to clear herself by being a little forthcoming?

Which brings me to Wilwarin. She is the origin, at least toDAY, of the suspicions of Lalaith. She voices them so early and so vehemently as to give me pause. It's the opposite tactic: "never mind manoeuvres, just go straight at 'em." It's this early certainty and nothing else that makes me think Wilwa is worth watching for the rest of the DAY.

lmp has proposed another plan toDAY. It has not engendered as much debate as yesterDAY's, but it has provoked a shouting match with Lalaith and another, briefer one with Anguirel. Both lmp and Anguirel remain suspicious to me, but I find it highly unlikely that all three wolves are so embroiled with each other already. So to complicate things further, I would say that if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not. If lmp is a wolf, then I would not put it past him and Anguirel to be playing a highly dangerous wolf-on-wolf game.

One more thought I'd like to address to lmp: he is suspicious of my "cool, even chilly" analysis. However, he repeatedly asks Lalaith to listen to what he says, not how he says it. I'd ask for the same courtesy from him.

I have to say that I'm less suspicious of Glirdan than some others seem to be--he appears to me to be working out his thoughts in plain sight, without any guile, and when he changes his mind it's because he's reexamined something. I actually find his posts a little refreshing and they seem to me to be very honest.

Firefoot and Kitanna have posted detailed analyses of yesterDAY's posting and voting; I'm thankful for both of these posts and since I tend to think that both of them are innocent, I eagerly await more posts like these.

So, at long last: I'm suspicious at this point of Lalaith, Wilwa, lmp, and Anguirel. Most suspicious: lmp and Anguirel together. Least suspicious: Lalaith. Unfortunately many of these suspicions are mutually exclusive, as I noted above: if I'm right about X, then I must be wrong about Y. Luckily I have most of a DAY to ruminate before casting a vote.

Glirdan, Firefoot, and Kitanna seem likely innocent to me.

As for the others, I'm going to wait and see before posting any opinions.

[Kitanna]

Ok so this is what I found through Kuru's posts. I'm not sure how helpful it is going to be for anyone.

In his first post he mentions Anguriel, Eonwe, and lmp. He says Anguriel is “acting strange” but clearly on the basis of Anguriel’s in character jester role. He mentions Eonwe and says he understands why Eonwe will probably not say much in the way of substance. And he then says lmp is acting strangely, but says nothing else in the post on the subject. Then he goes on to say everyone is just running up the numbers racket and he thinks that is a bad idea.

In his second post he brings up the idea of what would happen if everyone stayed silent.

He says nothing for a while and comes back with a mention to lmp’s post of picking a leader. He says it would have to be done early to work best, but agrees with Menel that it is a bad idea. Then puts emphasis on the fact lmp has been talking a lot.

Next post he says voting randomly based on people’s personalities is no use to the village and that is another bad thing about day one. Then he says he doesn’t suspect people who vote early because a wolf would be more inclined to vote late and try to cause a double-lynching. That is the last time Kuru speaks.

So what can we get from this? Kuru never outright accuses anyone so that is most likely why he was attacked.

[Celuien]

A few other quick thoughts before the review...

I just wanted to briefly answer the concern from yesterDAY about my not saying a whole lot. Truth was, I just wasn't sure of anything and didn't want to risk going overboard and swaying votes to innocents. As I said then, it will nag at me to err.

One more thing before I go. There are other reaons to be somewhat non-committal, at least early. One of which being giftedness. As has been pointed out, a Seer can't really afford to make mistakes, lest they be taken as dreams later after the identity is revealed. And the Ranger/Hunter might also want to play a game of being less vocal. If the Ranger's identity is suspected, defending someone too strongly could be taken as a sign of who would be guarded at night, making the role pointelss. LIkewise, if the Ranger is successful and defended the protected target strongly during the day, his/her identity might be revealed to the wolves - and wolves alone - as a result. A similar argument goes for the Hunter, who might not want the night target accidentally revealed in case the choice is correct and s/he wants the chance to take down a furry beast.

[Eonwe]

hmm anguriel has my suspicions because he seems to be out front allot. think... oh crap, can't do that :rolleyes: :p . his posting has a subtle effect to gain him innocents.

ok lets see. as for voting, there is not much to be gained there right now. later on the voting record will because very important. especially to the seer. use it wisely.

i wouldn't give wilwa too much grief about her bergil kill. someone hads to die, and someone has to kill him. and do you really think a wolf would do something that blattant. why not just let someone else do the job for her?

of course, we could say "the wolf would expect us to think that way, and so will do exactly that!"

where is that doctorate in game theory when you need it, eh? :p

[Glirdan]

Why thank you tar for expressing concern towards my fears and assuaging them. You to Celuien.

Now, after your lengthy post tar (which was well thought out by the way ;) ), I'm inclined to believe that you are an innocent. Either that, or a very clever Wolf. The first seems more likely to me. Kitanna and Firefoot have not had any suspicion from me and for the next little while, they won't. We need people like them and Lmp here to help us sort out our thoughts. It would be really stupid of us to lynch them at this point in time.

I'm now a little more suspicious of Wilwa, due to theof the defensivness of her post earlier, but she's not as suspicious as Lalaith or Wayne. So I'll probably end up voting for one of them unless something new arises.

[Kitanna]

lmp has proposed another plan toDAY. It has not engendered as much debate as yesterDAY's, but it has provoked a shouting match with Lalaith and another, briefer one with Anguirel. Both lmp and Anguirel remain suspicious to me, but I find it highly unlikely that all three wolves are so embroiled with each other already. So to complicate things further, I would say that if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not. If lmp is a wolf, then I would not put it past him and Anguirel to be playing a highly dangerous wolf-on-wolf game.
I agree that perhaps one wolf is hiding in that mix, but I would say only one. So if lmp is a wolf Anguriel and Lalaith are not, or if Anguriel is a wolf lmp and Lalaith are not. Out of the three I am least suspicious of lmp.

Now I'd like to address Wayne again. Lalaith and Wilwa both gave reasons as to their votes for Bergil, you have not. Wilwa and Lalaith have been defending/listing suspects, you have not.
I dont know why the wolves would kill him either it dosent make sense. The only thing he said was about the voting. I will look back at peoples post and say my suspicions soon.
That is all we have for you today. I hope you come back soon and answer some questions. I would like to know why you voted for Bergil, why you found him to be suspicious. You have been asked by several villagers to explain more in your posts, please do so.

Now, in the next few hours there's a good chance I will have to vote. Hopefully I can put it off until I get up in the morning, but that all depends on how much work I get done tonight. So I'm going to reread everything once again and come back in a few hours with my findings and/or a vote.

[tar-ancalime]

Menel, I'd like to hear more:

Why did you want to vote for Glirdan? Was it random? Do you still find him suspicious?

Sorry to pester you like this--but if you're going to proffer an intended vote it seems you should be subject to the same kind of scrutiny as the rest of us.

[littlemanpoet]

It seemed to me that you were saying anyone who doesn't fall into line with your plans would be in trouble. If that's not the way you meant it, fine, I accept that.

I was saying no more and no less than that lateness of responding or voting due to time zone, is not a sufficiently valid reason for innocence. Just because your time zone "makes" you respond or vote late, does not make you NOT a werewolf. (Sorry for the potentially confusing double negative, but it conveys my precise meaning.)

[Celuien]

Synopsis of the remaining villagers, in no particular order:

1. WaynetheGoblin - quite annoying. He has said almost nothing, other than a general "I'm here and I suspect so-and-so." Yesterday, suspected and voted Bergil because of his random vote. Has not returned with his promised suspect list yet. I'm at a loss to determine whether or not he is a wolf. But even if innocent, I'd place him higher on my short list of lynching candidates because of the frustratingly small amount he says.
2. Glirdan - as Firefoot said, all over the place (sorry!). I'm not sure that this makes him a wolf, but it does attract my attention. He returns to my watch list for today.
3. Eonwe - difficult for me to peg (pun intended). Suspects Ang for being vocal. Watching him more because I'm unsure what to think than from any real suspicion.
4. Meneltarmacil - waiting for more input today. Yesterday, he offered good input to lmp's plan, so I'm not particularly inclined to suspect him yet. I'm interesting to hear more about his suspicions of Glirdan.
5. tar-ancalime - so far today, has offered good input. I suspected her yesterday merely on that infallible quality of intuition. :p Right now, she doesn't look suspicious.
6. Wilwarin538 - I happen to agree with her on several points (see below). Another villager offering decent arguments, so I don't want to attack her now.
7. Kitanna - I do not currently suspect her since she has offered reasonable, helpful analysis. I personally agree with her interpretation of Kuru's death after looking at his posts from yesterday.
8. littlemanpoet - very, very odd. Lead-bottomed hints from yesterday suggesting Seer status could be either 1) a bold Seer coming into the open 2) an innocent attempting to mask the Seer, 3) a wolf masquerading as the Seer, or 4) misinterpretation of figures of speech by villagers which he chose to let go. Option 3 seems a bit too risky for a real wolf since it would bring the Seer's eye directly on him. I doubt lmp-wolf would use that tactic. I'd rather not push the issue too much in case he is the Seer. I will be watching him closely, however.
9. Lalaith - suspicious. Offers the theory that Kuru was the Seer early on, although there really wasn't too much there to suggest that, other than his being non-committal. I really don't think that's enough reason to declare a Seer, since a few of us were also vague yesterday. But it could be a distraction - or the wolves' genuine opinion. At the same time, she was the tiebreaker yesterday, although that doesn't mean quite as much with rules preventing multiple lynchings. Very odd back and forth with lmp this morning that I would like to see explained.
10. Firefoot - probable innocent. Sound analysis of events, seems genuinely heplful.
11. Kath - also a probable innocent, as far as I can tell. Same reasons as Firefoot.
12. Anguirel - suspects lmp greatly. I personally don't find him suspicious now. LMP has been behaving strangely, and I'm inclined to think his attack on lmp is motivated by genuine suspicion rather than a frame up. The vehemence of his attacks is classic Ang, so I don't really want to take it as a sign of guilt. But I will, unfortunately, need take a closer look at him today as a result of all this bickering.

As for lmp's plan for today, it seems to be a reasonable enough way to keep wolves from manipulating the votes. Unless, of course, they wind up strongly influencing the straw vote and manage to use to to keep the focus off of them. The failsafe of using a majority to change the selections seems okay, but could still be easily manipulated. I would prefer to follow the departed Kuru's advice and remain flexible.

[littlemanpoet]

As much as I hate to do it, I fear that I must cry "longitude." Concern has been expressed because I have not yet added my voice to toDAY's discussion. As it happens, I do not live on either side of the Atlantic, nor do I live on the American side of the Pacific.

I noted the time of this post: as Lalaith was going to bed it was 6 AM here.

I've now finished reading toDAY's posts and it's just after 7 AM. Glirdan, I hope this assuages your fears.

Because I have missed out on so much discussion and analysis of DAY 1, though, perhaps I can be most helpful by starting to parse what has been said toDAY thus far (as far as Wilwa's post # 134).

It seems that there are varying theories as to why Kuru was the unfortunate victim of those among us with base wolvish impulses:

Did the wolves think he was the Seer? Lalaith thinks so.

I have had to think about this quite a bit. It seems to me that Lalaith may be right about this. At first it seemed illogical--Kuru didn't do anything yesterDAY that would indicate his being a Gifted. But then I realized--Kuru was behaving exactly as a smart Seer would early in the game: present, with smart posts that didn't really point any fingers. I never would have thought of this, being a relative novice in the detection of wolves, but I think Lalaith may have hit on something here.

Now, I recognize that I'm flirting with danger by agreeing with one who has been the object of so much suspicion already toDAY (in post 112 Wilwa already asserts that Lalaith is likely to get her vote; Kath suspects her, as does Glirdan; and she's been in quite a shoving match with lmp). I have to admit some uneasiness with Lalaith myself, despite what I think is sound reasoning regarding Kuru's death: who better to expound the correct theory than a wolf? By showing us her hand in this way (explaining the reasons for Kuru's death) she's being "helpful," which is so valuable this early in the game; could she be a clever wolf trying to clear herself by being a little forthcoming?

Which brings me to Wilwarin. She is the origin, at least toDAY, of the suspicions of Lalaith. She voices them so early and so vehemently as to give me pause. It's the opposite tactic: "never mind manoeuvres, just go straight at 'em." It's this early certainty and nothing else that makes me think Wilwa is worth watching for the rest of the DAY.

lmp has proposed another plan toDAY. It has not engendered as much debate as yesterDAY's, but it has provoked a shouting match with Lalaith and another, briefer one with Anguirel. Both lmp and Anguirel remain suspicious to me, but I find it highly unlikely that all three wolves are so embroiled with each other already. So to complicate things further, I would say that if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not. If lmp is a wolf, then I would not put it past him and Anguirel to be playing a highly dangerous wolf-on-wolf game.

One more thought I'd like to address to lmp: he is suspicious of my "cool, even chilly" analysis. However, he repeatedly asks Lalaith to listen to what he says, not how he says it. I'd ask for the same courtesy from him.

I have to say that I'm less suspicious of Glirdan than some others seem to be--he appears to me to be working out his thoughts in plain sight, without any guile, and when he changes his mind it's because he's reexamined something. I actually find his posts a little refreshing and they seem to me to be very honest.

Firefoot and Kitanna have posted detailed analyses of yesterDAY's posting and voting; I'm thankful for both of these posts and since I tend to think that both of them are innocent, I eagerly await more posts like these.

So, at long last: I'm suspicious at this point of Lalaith, Wilwa, lmp, and Anguirel. Most suspicious: lmp and Anguirel together. Least suspicious: Lalaith. Unfortunately many of these suspicions are mutually exclusive, as I noted above: if I'm right about X, then I must be wrong about Y. Luckily I have most of a DAY to ruminate before casting a vote.

Glirdan, Firefoot, and Kitanna seem likely innocent to me.

As for the others, I'm going to wait and see before posting any opinions.
This has got to be the cleverest bit of wiley coyote analysis I've seen from a werewolf in a long while. It shows the heavily veiled, convoluted thinking of a werewolf. Notice how tar early puts forth Lalaith as suspicious, then retracts her. Very subtle, very tricksy. And tar, for whom I am quickly gaining a most deep respect, your cool analysis and mine are not the same. It's hard to point out to the exact difference, but I think it is this: you are doing too well at thinking the thoughts of the werewolves for them. Whereas I'm trying to imagine what a werewolf might be thinking, you're succeeding. That's extremely suspicious. The very mutual exclusivity of your purported suspicions renders them so confusing that it's impossible to know what to think, which is an additionally handy tool in the hands of a werewolf.

I'm not ready to state my chief suspect list, but you can trust that tar ancalime is on it.

[Eonwe]

hmmmm. LMP i read teh post through and didn't find much of anything. maybe im just naive. tar doens't retract lalaith, as far as i can see. she just says that lalaith is the least suspicious of the three.

as for being confusing, its werewolf, my friend! :p

[littlemanpoet]

hmmmm. LMP i read teh post through and didn't find much of anything. maybe im just naive. tar doens't retract lalaith, as far as i can see. she just says that lalaith is the least suspicious of the three.

as for being confusing, its werewolf, my friend! :p

Yes, you do have a point. I think it's if you read the post presuming guilt, or innocence. That's the trouble with werewolves. tar ancalime's rather courteous request for Menel to speak more in defense of himself, actually is serving to lessen my suspicion of her. And yes, that's reading way way deep between the lines, but there are werewolves about, you know.

Time to go dig some graves.

[tar-ancalime]

And tar, for whom I am quickly gaining a most deep respect, your cool analysis and mine are not the same.

Oh, lmp, really! While I appreciate the compliment, I fail to see any "cool analysis" from you at all. Our posts have been very different, true, but it's not due to any base motives on my part, I can assure you. The difference is this:

My posts have been the result of ruminations on the comments of others: the "wait and see, then share my thoughts" approach.

Your posts have been deliberately inflammatory. You submit these plans (and I do think you're putting them out solely as objects of discussion: to get us talking about your plans instead of about you,) then wait for the inevitable arguments to ensue. Just toDAY you're giving as good as you got with both Lalaith and Anguirel, merely arguing rather than adding anything new. To tell you the truth, it's this argumentative quality that you've displayed from the start that is at the real root of all my suspicions of you. If you hadn't argued with so many people already, you'd be...maybe not pure as the driven, but much less noteworthy in my eyes.

I utterly regret that in this post I'm doing much the same by rising to your so obviously proffered bait, but there it is. At least you have pushed me out into the open with the root of my suspicions of you, and even caused me to think through them more carefully.

I'll be back later with more analysis, and you can be sure that it will be just as cool, just as reasoned, and just as honest as before. I'm still pondering the lmp, Anguirel, Lalaith triangle, not to mention Wilwa's early certainty, and I don't want to let lmp's obvious disdain for my approach to cloud my judgement.

[Glirdan]

Why did you want to vote for Glirdan? Was it random? Do you still find him suspicious?

I'd like to hear the same thing from Menel. There has to be more to it than just what you posted yesterDay.

I agree that perhaps one wolf is hiding in that mix, but I would say only one. So if lmp is a wolf Anguriel and Lalaith are not, or if Anguriel is a wolf lmp and Lalaith are not. Out of the three I am least suspicious of lmp.

I'd have to agree completely with Kitanna on this one. Lmp seems least suspicious of the three, yet that doesn't remove him from suspicion. I'm more suspicious of Lalaith than I am of the other two, and even more suspicious of Wayne, yet I might give him the benefit of the doubt for today and vote Lalaith instead. There's not enough information for one to go off to pin anything on Wayne where as with Lalaith, there is enough.

I have to vote in the next hour or so so I'd really like to hear something from Wayne before then.

[Firefoot]

LMP, I do think you might be on to something. tar's post is very cool, almost too smooth, now that I read it again. A brilliant example of taking others' ideas and running with them, expanding, being "helpful." She has now moved up on my suspect list.

So, if tar was a wolf, who else might be wolves? At most one of Lalaith, LMP, Ang, and Wilwa would be a wolf, quite possibly none. Even though she states Lalaith is the least suspicious of those to her, she spends a lot of time in her post going over them. LMP, I am not too concerned about. Possibly Ang or Wilwa, but nothing certain there.

Firefoot and Kitanna have posted detailed analyses of yesterDAY's posting and voting; I'm thankful for both of these posts and since I tend to think that both of them are innocent, I eagerly await more posts like these. Knowing my own innocence (I don't expect any of you to trust me on this, of course), I would guess that if tar is a wolf, Kitanna is not. This fits with my earlier statement that Kitanna seemed pretty safe to me (still does, after going through toDay's posts). If there was a wolf among her stated innocents, I think it would be Glirdan, but I'm becoming less suspicious of him as the Day goes on. This is not an in-depth statement, I haven't studied much too closely yet, but a surface-level feeling.

That leaves Wayne, Eonwe, Menel, Kath, and Celuien. Even if tar weren't a wolf, I don't think I'd be surprised if a wolf came off this list, and if she is a wolf, I think one almost certainly would. Kath and Celuien have thus far seemed pretty innocent to me. Wayne, I don't know how anyone could get any kind of reading from him. Eonwe and Menel are both in between very suspicious and the halfway point.

So currently my suspicion list looks something like this:

Tar
Menel
Eonwe
Wayne
Ang
Glirdan
Wilwa

Note: this has been largely off the cuff and unresearched. I still have not gone over Day 2 in depth. I will be doing that before I go to bed, and very likely voting in a similar time-frame as yesterDay.

Cross-posting with a lot of people...

[littlemanpoet]

Your posts have been deliberately inflammatory. You submit these plans (and I do think you're putting them out solely as objects of discussion: to get us talking about your plans instead of about you,) then wait for the inevitable arguments to ensue. Just toDAY you're giving as good as you got with both Lalaith and Anguirel, merely arguing rather than adding anything new. To tell you the truth, it's this argumentative quality that you've displayed from the start that is at the real root of all my suspicions of you. If you hadn't argued with so many people already, you'd be...maybe not pure as the driven, but much less noteworthy in my eyes. You have cleared yourself in my eyes. Thank you. Moving on to the next suspect....

Edit: Cross posted with Firefoot, and rethinking yet again.

[Firefoot]

Okay, I've gone through the Day's posts so far, focusing on the people on my suspicion list. I don't want to get too far in this without giving some of those other people not on my list another look, but there are definitely other things I should be doing now *coughstudyingcough*.

Anguirel – he starts out the Day stating why Kuru was a good choice for the wolves; I agree very much with these statements. He also found LMP very suspicious – not without a fair reason, though I myself do not find LMP particularly suspicious (he could be pulling a blinder on me, I don’t know; he’s one of those people who I tend to trust until they prove otherwise, whereas most people are the other way around. Probably not a good thing, I know). In his next post he continues to support his suspicion of LMP, largely on his opposite approach to Kuru’s. He is becoming less suspicious to me, mostly because he has been very consistent. He is still on my watch list, but really my suspicion list. Unfortunately, I probably won’t be able to study any more posts he might make before I vote due to horrible time constraints as the Day wears on.

Eonwe – He has not been very substantive today at all, and has done nothing to alleviate my suspicion of him. He posts just enough not to be accused of not posting much, but he doesn’t say very much. He’s edging up on my suspicion list.

Glirdan – He thinks a wolf probably voted for Kuru or Bergil – that is, Wayne, Wilwa, and Lalaith. I find this as likely as not – voting was too spread out. He is somewhat random, though there are threads of consistency running through his posts. I think he’s more likely to be a scattered villager at this point, rather than a wolf. Unless something big happens, my vote will not be going to him today.

Menel – He says he was planning on voting for Glirdan yesterday. He’s a little suspicious of LMP. He has posted a total of once today; I definitely want to hear more from him. He has moved from in-between to mildly suspicious, if nothing else because he says little. I haven’t seen anything say that he is innocent, so he’s edging guilty.

tar-ancalime – I’m really not sure about her. Her Day 1 posts don’t make me suspicious, but her Day 2 posts do, especially that one that LMP pointed out. She’s smart, and I wouldn’t put a whole lot past her. She could possibly receive my vote. If she’s innocent, then her reasoning seems entirely sound, but there’s something wrong about the tone. Definite suspicion.

Wayne – Same…

Wilwa – Expressed early on intention to vote for Lalaith – I find this rather hasty, but she has decent reasons for it. She is coming down on my suspicion list; she hasn’t done anything today to raise any flags. I highly doubt I will be voting for her.

In about eight hours I'll be coming back to post briefly and likely vote. My vote will almost definitely come off one of the people I have highlighted as suspicious in this post.

And a plea, for voting: I don't think it will really be starting up for quite some time yet, and it doesn't seem likely to be a spread out as yesterday, but let's not do that again. Voting can be one of the most useful tools, but yesterDay's was no help at all. Let's try to keep voting confined to about four-five suspects, okay? They don't have to be set suspects as LMP was trying to organize earlier, but don't just vote for a random person that doesn't have any votes if there are already several candidates. Half (or more than half) of the citizens of the village should not be getting votes. It makes it entirely too easy for wolves to hide.

[Glirdan]

I'm afraid I have to cast my vote now because I won't get another chance to.

++Lalaith

For reasons stated before. The fact that she has a Jackal/Hyde attitude just doesn't settle with me.

She was the one I was most suspicious of and as I said, I decided to give Wayne the benefit of the doubt. I hope with this vote I don't condemn an innocent to death.

Now I must be off to my grave for some well needed rest.

[Kitanna]

Curse school and the fact it will keep me away for almost all of tomorrow and there shall be no time for a decent post. So it is time for a vote.

I find all this tar talk interesting. I never would have thought twice about her post if lmp had not brought it to light as far too cool and calculating. So clearly she needs a good deal of watching. And I was very swayed by lmp and Firefoot's analysis of her. But I'm not sure I really want to vote for her.

I have suspicions of Wilwa, Lalaith, and Tar all equally now. I'd throw Wayne in there too because of his unhelpful posts as well. So that leaves me with four to vote for.

Wayne is an easy vote and he is an unhelpful character which is a plus to getting rid of him.

Wilwa defended and defended and defended herself when it came to her vote for Bergil, keeps coming back to it to defend herself. I felt her intial defense would have been fitting, but yet she continued to go on with it. Then she goes after Lalaith.

Lalaith seems to have gained suspicion as a Jykle/Hyde of the village. She is also the one who called for the village to talk much. Talking a lot = Confusion and confusion = wolf breeding ground. She is involved in the lmp-Anguriel war.

Tar moved up on my suspect list due to lmp and when he pointed out her post. I'm not sure exactly what to think, but I will defiantly be reading her posts more carefully from now on.

So how to vote? I think...

++ Wilwa

I think perhaps Lalaith and Wilwa may be wolves working together. Don't ask me why...just a gut feeling. Wilwa's suspicions of Lalaith are on her moods and tone in her posts. Well, that is alright, but somehow I feel...well I'm not sure. They just do not seem right. Then her defense of herself, even on day one does not sit right in my mind. Perhaps I'm losing my mind...

So there's my vote. Tomorrow I will take a much harder look at tar and Lalaith, but if Wayne does not provide substance in his posts then I may just go after him out of sheer annoyance.

[Anguirel]

LMP, all this heavily dropped "lynch me and you'll regret it" nonsense implicates you still further. A Seer does not monopolise the village. A Seer does not not take obvious control of events until he has accrued a lot of information and it's worth the risk.

Simply put, Seers should be neither heard nor seen. You've accomplished both. If you are the Seer, your life expectancy is already no longer than a mayfly's. Any wolves worth their whiskers will have picked up on your heavy, but dreadfully premature, hints by now. That's why I'm speaking honestly. I genuinely think that if you're the Seer, (and I see that as unlikely, because I thought you were supposed to be cunning and skilful) your mileage is run.

But if you're a wolf, you're hoping to pacify a village that's starting to turn on you. Well done. Many villagers seem to think you beyond consideration already. I take that as a sign of your guilt in itself. Where wise men make assumptions and jump to false conclusions, there it is the fool's task to point out their mistakes. Trusting you automatically purely because you're saying enough words to drown us all in is one.

I think that you're also hoping to draw out the real Seer. Our real soothsayer will be wise to that, I'm sure.

If you are not a wolf, LMP, you will die tonight. You're a dead investment. A sunk equity. A safe vote.

You keep trying to put yourself in the clear by babbling about how there are three wolves, not one. I am aware of that. I also know enough of you to know that you will be the ringleader, the organiser, the captain and commander; and I will not allow you to bluster your way out of the net.

Though incidentally I'm inclined to thinktar-ancalime and wilwa to be your fanged backing. Perhaps we should lynch wilwa to test you. She seems to have an interesting faith in your abilities.

[Lalaith]

I think it is best to assume we are dealing with clever wolves. At this stage in the game, clever wolves will be going all out to kill the person they think might be the Seer. That is obvious. Therefore, the belief, voiced by myself, tar-a and Anguirel, that the wolves thought Kuru might be the Seer, is actually an obvious statement.
(Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.)

So what else do wolves do? Firstly, unlike the rest of us, they know exactly who is innocent. So one way to spot a wolf is by looking for people who seem to be theorising and searching as frantically as the rest of us for clues, but who then don't seem to follow through - whose conclusions seem either unreasonable or sloppy. This is why I was giving LMP a hard time yesterday and this morning, his insistence on people following his plan in accordance with his own timezone seemed unreasonable and therefore wolvish.

Another thing wolves do is to work out a strategy at night to avoid any of their number being lynched. (Of course, there are exceptions to this, when one of their number is the object of general suspicion and the others need to distance themselves.) The best way for wolves to protect each other is by starting a bandwagon against an innocent they think is likely to be an acceptable suspect to the rest of the villagers. This is where people like Wayne come in very handy for wolves, which is why I was quite reluctant to vote for him yesterday. It is also why I feel very suspicious of wilwa's abrupt attack on me this morning - an early start of a bandwagon, I wondered - although I know she has time constraints which could explain her hastiness.

Now, someone is inevitably going to come along and say "oh look how much Lalaith knows about wolves, how suspicious". But that sort of comment would be silly and disingenuous - without wanting to break spawn's rules, we are all veterans here.

As for the points discussed so far today.
I like a lot of tar-a says, although it doesn't necessarily absolve her in my eyes. If Ang and LMP were both wolves, (lord help us!) this sort of bickering is very likely how they would play it.
It is strange and ironic that Glirdan, who was my chief suspect yesterday, votes for me today.
I don't want to make anymore mistakes, two is my max
Wilwa, my dear, getting me lynched will be definitely be your second mistake.

[littlemanpoet]

I've slept on things in a hole I dug
and almost drowned because it rained.
Those holes really are quite snug,
just need to figure how to get them drained.

There are some people who are playing too sloppy to be werewolves. Werewolves would take more care with what they say because they have more invested. The sloppy people betray their innocence, so to speak, by not caring what people think of what they say. On these grounds, I don't think Lalaith is a werewolf. The same reasoning seems to implicate Anguirel's innocence. This does happen to go for me too, but I'll leave that to othe judgement of the rest of you.

There are a few people who seem to be taking great care as to their choice of words. These are Wilwa & tar ancalime. One of these two will probably get my vote, but that's not a guarantee; just in case someone wants to later accuse me (should I survive the Day or Night) of not being consistent.

Whereas Eonwe & Kitanna cast the most suspicious votes yesterDay, as I reckon it, they don't seem particularly feral, especially not Kitanna.

I was tempted to suggest that we lynch Lalaith tonight on the strength of how many people suspect her, as well as on the fact that she was the swing vote. My rationale was that if she turned out to be a werewolf, it would be easy to spot whom she had been trying to protect, and that if she didn't turn out to be one, then we're no worse off than we might be lynching someone else, as long as she's not gifted. But I really doubt that she's a werewolf.

And Lalaith & Anguirel, I'm not writing this to allay your suspicions of me. Suspect away! I'm just putting forth my thinking, in hopes of helping us all to a good decision toDay.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, sure, I'm the seer, ol' buddy Ang.

Real Seer, don't come out and say I'm not the seer, because obviously I'm not. Do the wise thing. Thank you.

[Anguirel]

Then why, LMP, oh why, did you go on about sleeping arrangements and dreaming? Why did you stress that we'd regret lynching you?

No, I still think you're a desperate wolf; and I believe that either Wilwa or tar-ancalime-not both-growls alongside you.

However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf.

I am suspicious of the growing movement against Wilwa-just too obvious-but I am also prepared to clear the other combatant Lalaith, partly because she is not acquiescing to LMP's imposition of his own innocence. If I'm wrong, she should also be examined. So I have two partially formed triumvirates:

If LMP is guilty

LMP, tar-ancalime?, wilwa?, Firefoot?

If he's innocent

Menel, Lalaith, Firefoot? and admittedly, for the rest of you, Anguirel?

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

I've thrown Firefoot in on both sides because I'm scared witless of her guile.

[Firefoot]

I can't say I really understand all this talk of LMP being the seer - it seems pretty obvious to me that he is not, or why would he be saying the things he is? A seer needs to be much more subtle than that. I would be shocked if LMP is the Seer.

That being said, I also do not think that LMP is a wolf - it seems like a stupid plan to deliberately draw attention to yourself by "faking" as the Seer. People almost unfailingly get lynched for threatening that "you'll be sorry if you lynch me." I would expect something a little more sophisticated from LMP - though I suppose it could be a bluff. I just don't think it is, though. However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf. Yes. If you think someone is a seer, good grief, don't say that! Let's just point our most valuable asset out to the wolves, why don't we?

The prime lynching suspects at the moment seem to be Lalaith, Wilwa, LMP, and tar-ancalime. I don't want to vote for Lalaith; I don't feel very suspicious of her at all right now. I won't be voting for LMP, either - especially since I will very likely be voting in the next hour, or trying to cut it very close. I also am not terribly suspicious of Wilwa right now. That would leave tar. My vote will likely be going to her at this point - either that or Menel or Eonwe, but neither of them seem to be getting much support as far as lynching goes.

[tar-ancalime]

Though incidentally I'm inclined to thinktar-ancalime and wilwa to be your fanged backing.

That's where you're wrong, Anguirel dah-ling. If I were a wolf, I would be NO ONE's backup singer. ;)

Gallows humor aside, I'm quite interested in your recent posts. First this:

Perhaps we should lynch wilwa to test you. She seems to have an interesting faith in your abilities.

Then this:

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

A callous disregard for the life of a (quite possibly) innocent villager, especially in regard to Wilwa, but then, someone in the village has got to have the stomach for it, eh?

I don't think that lynching one of your hypothetical hench-wolves would tell us anything about lmp, who does seem to be your main target toDAY. I say this not only because I'm one of them, but because really, where would it get us? Unless Wilwa really is a wolf, of course, and then we've got one in the bag...

I give lmp a lot of credit, and I don't see him going to pieces over ANY lynching, especially one that you overtly say is to "test" him. If he's the one you want, he's the one you should go after (as you seem to recognize in the second post that I quoted).

I have to say that my suspicion of you is fading as this DAY progresses. I'm now inclined to think that you're really trying to parse this out with the rest of us, and that (like me) your manner sometimes gets you in trouble.

(Sorry--this is a two-part post--the above is mostly directed to Anguirel, while the below is a gathering of thoughts before voting.)

I'm also less wary of Lalaith than I was earlier--I have to admit that I may have been swayed a little by Wilwa's early vehemence. Also, having now been on the receiving end of one of lmp's less-trusting posts myself, I can understand the impulse to argue with him a lot better than I could before.

As for lmp himself, I am puzzled. He seems to have two faces: one accusatory, argumentative, and unyielding (as in the discussion of time zones yesterDAY); and the other genuinely puzzled, bemused, willing to change his mind, and trying to save our poor village. Lalaith has been characterized as a Jekyll/Hyde villager, but I think the appellation is more apt for our undertaker.

Wilwa is growing more and more suspicious to me as the DAY progresses. Early vitriol against Lalaith followed by nothing at all (except repeated defenses of her vote, which I'm tempted to attribute to the repeated questionings of her vote). I have a few hours yet before I'll have to cast my vote, and I do hope to see some more from her before I do so.

I would also like to see more substance from Kath. Her posts have been few but incisive, just the kind of thing you might expect from a wary wolf.

Wayne, Menel, where are you? We need you!

So, my suspicions have changed somewhat since my (evidently itself suspicious) post of this morning. I now suspect:

(strongly)
lmp
wilwa

(very mildly, mostly due to lack of input, which may or may not be fair)
Kath
Wayne
Menel

Anguirel and Lalaith can consider themselves off the hook, at least for the moment.

Unless something changes either Wilwa (for extreme vitriol) or lmp (for unnecessary pot-stirring and possible smoke-and-mirror act) is likely to get my vote.

[tar-ancalime]

Firefoot:

Anything I can do to change your mind?

[Firefoot]

++Meneltarmacil

I'm just not convinced enough of tar-ancalime's guilt (it's just that one post that really seems suspicious to me), and what little Menel has said has me on edge.

[Firefoot]

tar - I hadn't seen your comment before posting my vote (top of the page, you know). I really just don't know what to think of you - but that judgment (on my part) will have to wait until the next Day.

[Lalaith]

I've been going through the list trying out different wolf combos, and one triumvirate just occurred to me which kind of works, logically:

Wayne/Glirdan/wilwarin.

What they have in common is that they keep suspecting each other but always finding someone else that they suspect a little bit more, to actually vote for.
I'm not entirely convinced of this theory myself - it's a bit obvious! - but I'm tossing it into the pot. What do the rest of you think?

[Anguirel]

It seems unlikely to me purely in terms of statistics that all three of those quiet ones would be wolves. Presumably the best way to test this theory would be lynching Wilwa, an option which is turning into something of a consensus view-and I deeply distrust consensuses. The quorum blanket decisions of "wise men". Again it smacks of the stultifying rigidity Kuru warned against.

I shall vote, I expect, either for Meneltarmacil or littlemanpoet-though I still find tar-ancalime's manipulation of the Quip Modest disturbing, I admire the skill of her defence. She should consider a job as a jester...Menel and LMP are at polar opposites in terms of my theories, and I tend to think LMP's death would both tell us more and rid us of the dangerous perception that everything he says is gospel. Notice how that second plan of his sank like a stone into a pond? That, my dear fools, gives me a little hope.

*wait for it* A fool's hope.

[Celuien]

Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.


Fair enough. I'll let that pass, then. For what it's worth, on reconsideration, I find you far less suspicious. The Wayne/Glirdan/wilwarin combination suggested is interesting, one which I'll need to give more thought before voting today.

Current votes:
Lalaith (Glirdan)
Wilwa (Kitanna)
Menel (Firefoot)

To be continued in a while...

[Anguirel]

I'm going to replace tar-ancalime on my proposed LMP triumvirate with Kitanna. Re-reading her posts, I suddenly find the implicit belief she has in anything that stems from the undertaker's pen rather alarming. But as tar-ancalime suggested, we need to destroy the principle viper first, so my primary target will remain LMP with Menel as a contingency plan. I shall vote an hour or so before the deadline as I have to rush off and declaim some Virgil and Cicero...this fool does Classics...

[Eonwe]

ok just a thought. its about time (statistically, alhtough i hate thinking of it it those terms) that wayne was a wolf. if he just played his game as usual, nobody would really think anything of it. so yeah, i don't want write him off. YOU NEED TO TALK SOME, MY FRIEND!!! or i will want to lynch you.

suspicions list. anguirel: a wise man once said (well something along the lines of), "if you look at a wolf's posts, they may not be all confuseing and unhelpful. that is the most dangerous kind. the kind that looks like a logical innocent." so anguirel fits that bill perfectly. (edit and i think he is teh perfect person to use this type of upfront in teh limelight approach to remaining unsusicious.)

lmp: there are a number of issues here. some talk of the seer was brought up. my goodness, why did everyone push him over teh edge. if he's the seer, leave him alown. if he's not teh seer adn is hinting he is, he must a wolf (or an innocent, but that is irrelavent, cuz the wolves will just kill him). just let him have his game adn when the seer dies, we'll kill 'im! just let it play its course that's wot i say.

as for gospel turth of lmp, until the seer or ranger gives us some known innocents my word is the only gospel i konw of (for me taht is ;) ). i look at whateverone says adn make my own judgemetns (see lmp's plans a and b).

as for if he's a wolf, i don't think a wolf would hint a being the seer. its just to risky for when the seer comes out or dies. however, yes there is still that desparate gamble lmp could be making. right now i'll give him teh benefit of teh doubt.

i think we need to look at the last couple people taht voted. taht would be celuein, kittana, me and lalaith. because a wolf doesn't want his vote noticed up on the first day, and certainly doesn't want it to count in the kill. as im lazy and need to study, ill leave that up to you though ;) .

[Anguirel]

This jester is being criticised for being illogical and logical at the same time. Truly, that is wisdom...

[Eonwe]

im assuming that comment was directed toward me. it not please disregard.

all im saying is there are certain things you say that make my a bit leery. when combines with that wise man's sayings, it compounds the suspicions.

i know taht wasn't very clear (and a bit hipocritical :( ) but i havn't the time to go into detail. ill look it up later and get back to you.

[Lalaith]

Ok, I've had a think. The worst thing that can happen to the village is that we accidentally lynch the seer.
Now, being innocent myself I can't know for definite who is a wolf and who is innocent. But there is one person I know cannot be the seer, and that is wilwarin, because of her attack on me. I'm suspicious of her, but I can't be sure she's a wolf. However, I can promise you all that by lynching her we at least run no risk of lynching the seer.

So, by this logic:
++wilwarin

PS Actually, I've thought of one very convoluted scenario whereby wilwarin could be the seer. If she went after me, and I am then lynched and shown to be innocent, this would dispel any later doubt by wolves that she is the seer.
However, this is very byzantine, and not at all wilwa's style I think. So, I still feel almost 100% confident in making that promise...

[tar-ancalime]

Well, I've got to vote now (it's getting late here), so as promised:

++littlemanpoet

[Celuien]

Okay, let's see what the wayne/wilwa/glirdan combo gives us:

Wilwa: as the loudest one of the triumvirate, wilwa would be the leader of daytime arguments from the wolves' side to steer votes toward innocents. Also protects Glirdan-wolf by keeping him at arms length with mild jabs but at the same time agreeing with him. Note his early vote for Wilwa's prime suspect, Lalaith.
Glirdan: a less noisy version of Wilwa, stirring just enough controversy with her to keep them separated, but, again, voting with her. Could be a wolf tag along with an innocent wilwa, or a wolf pair strategy.
Wayne: the annoying enigma. Gets suspected by Glirdan today after Wilwa's suspicion of him yesterday. Please correct me if I've missed something, but I think Wilwa dropped all accusation of Wayne today (I should recheck posts to confirm). And so we have a circular turn-taking to keep distance between all three members of the wolf group in this theory. Notice also that everyone wants to give him the benefit of the doubt for his silence, making him a candidate to remain to the as the one surviving wolf - always suspected, but never enough to win a majority vote.

It all seems logical, but far too easy.

Back to the lmp conundrum...

While too noisy to be the Seer, I think he's also too noisy to be a smart wolf. And I'm pretty certain that if he were a wolf, lmp would be very smart about it. Far too smart to wind up the subject of such prominent debate on days 1 and 2, no matter how much our impetuous jester pushed him. I'm not sure what his strategy his, but at this point, I doubt it's a wolvish plan. And again, I'm willing to clear Anguirel for similar reasons. Too impulsive to be a wolf. What I think we're seeing is the interplay of two innocents absorbed in their own arguments with each other.

So who am I leaning toward for the upcoming vote, not in order of preference?
1) Possibly Glirdan to test the combination posited by Lalaith. He has behaved oddly throughout the past two days, and if he is guilty, it pretty much clears Lalaith. Wilwa then looks more suspicious, although the possibility of a Glirdan-wolf tagging along with an innocent Wilwa to both hide and cast doubt on her in the event of his being discovered is not eliminated. Plus, I thought that his lumping tar and me in with Wayne for silence was strange.
2) Menel - who already has one vote from Firefoot for what I agree are logical reasons and somewhat uncharacteristic silence today. And, since I think lmp is probably innocent, it's a chance to test Anguirel's other wolf pairing without voting for Lal, since I am currently against voting for her. Or, of course, to break a tie.
3) Wayne - again. Out of frustration and to see if the triplet is plausible.
4) Wilwa - theory testing as above or to break a tie.

And as a final disclaimer, all of this is subject to last minute modification and retraction.

[Anguirel]

Celuien's argument that LMP and I could be but brash innocents locking horns has some appeal, as history tends to repeat itself in the legends of Tol-in-Gaurhoth. For this reason I'm now more inclined to make a test of Menel than LMP-presumably such a triumvirate would involve Menel, tar-ancalime, not Firefoot, and one of the quieter ones.

I shall, however, continue to withhold my vote, though I confirm it will probably for Menel or LMP. For a jester, I'm awfully predictable.

[littlemanpoet]

Then why, LMP, oh why, did you go on about sleeping arrangements and dreaming? Why did you stress that we'd regret lynching you? I thought i'd try my hand at protecting the seer. Problem is I'm not exactly the subtle type . . . at least not this village. You will regret lynching me as much as you will regret the lynching of any ordinary innocent.

LMP, tar-ancalime?, wilwa?, Firefoot?Sad to see your well-meant energies so misdirected as to include Firefoot and me with the other two.

If he's innocent

Menel, Lalaith, Firefoot? and admittedly, for the rest of you, Anguirel?

What's this with Firefoot? Are you suspecting her because she suspects you? I don't get it. How about some explanations? She has given nothing but credible assistance so far. Please explain yourself, Ang.

[littlemanpoet]

I've been going through the list trying out different wolf combos, and one triumvirate just occurred to me which kind of works, logically:

Wayne/Glirdan/wilwarin.

What they have in common is that they keep suspecting each other but always finding someone else that they suspect a little bit more, to actually vote for.
I'm not entirely convinced of this theory myself - it's a bit obvious! - but I'm tossing it into the pot. What do the rest of you think?
Good thought. It seems like a reasonable possibility.

[Anguirel]

Firefoot is on the list purely because I want to defend against the possible as well as the probable. If she is a wolf, our task is far trickier, and it's as best to be prepared, don't you think?

Then there's the fact that she's not quite her usual analytical self, but I'm ready to accept that that's due to time...

[littlemanpoet]

Despite my antipathy for heroic suicides, I'm tempted to vote for myself, just to "stir the pot". But I won't. I'd rather be the object of enough suspicion that I'm lynched, and let the rest of you see to the corpses.

++ Wilwarin

has seemed rather suspicious to me from the get-go, her vote yesterDay not helping, and her "protesting too much" today.

[Anguirel]

Celuien, I'd much rather lynch Menel than Wilwa and am alarmed at the pace at which this is developing...if you commit yourself and vote for Menel now, I'll follow you at once.

I'll be off to, ah, foolery lessons for forty minutes soon, but if you agree in the interim I'll vote when I'm back.

[Lalaith]

Voting update:

1- Lalaith (Glirdan)
3 - Wilwa (Kitanna, Lalaith, LMP)
1- Menel (Firefoot)
1- LMP (tar-ancalime)

[Celuien]

Celuien, I'd much rather lynch Menel than Wilwa and am alarmed at the pace at which this is developing...if you commit yourself and vote for Menel now, I'll follow you at once.

A very hard call given the vote count...

Lalaith, 1, (Glirdan)
Wilwa, 3, (Kitanna, Lalaith, lmp)
Menel, 1, (Firefoot)
lmp, 1, (tar)

...but there should be enough outstanding votes to stop a tie. And there's the possibility that a double won't be allowed anyway.

I'm willing to go along with you here. Menel is strange and the rapidity of the Wilwa bandwagon is making me nervous.

++MENEL

[Anguirel]

Oh hang it. I entreat you, Celuien, follow me when you can. And littlemanpoet-a fool's curse on ye if you've played me false.

++MENELTARMACIL

EDIT: You came after all Celuien-excellent. Now is the hour when we shall draw our swords together!

[Kath]

I'm sorry everyone but some rather unforeseen circumstances regarding writing and illness have kept me away today. I don't have time to do anything right noe this is just me checking in, but I will get back later and try to make an informed vote. I'm not sure I like this wilwa bandwagon, it seemed to arise very quickly and I would like to have a look at the people who jumped on it without previous suspicion. And now this new Menel bandwagon. Anyway so I'll return (though likely not til about 8) and have a look at those two properly. I just don't know what to think at the moment.

All I am really worried about at the moment after skimming through is the extent to which LMP, while distrusted by some, is still the out and out 'leader'. People follow him down most paths and I'm not sure that's a good thing, especially when he has NOT under any circumstances been proved innocent. That's not to say he is a wolf, just that it worries me a little.

[Meneltarmacil]

Honestly, I do not know whether or not LMP is innocent. If I was a wolf (which I certainly am not), I don't think I'd call for a lynching toDay if I really thought he was the Seer. I would have mentioned it to the other Wolves last Night and probably made plans to kill him in his sleep.

However, it does seem pretty obvious that he was trying to look like the Seer, especially in this post:
That having been said, I'll spend the Night dreaming up a new plan, if that helps to motivate discussion. We shall see what we shall see.
That hint was extremely obvious, and he said something very similar afterward. I actually thought he was the Seer at first, and figured that he'd made a mistake. I started suspecting him after I noticed he hadn't died last Night. Either we have some really stupid wolves running around, or LMP is a wolf. I seriously doubt that he is actually the Seer.

[Meneltarmacil]

Please forgive the double-post.

As for why I'd have Glirdan, I noticed, along with everyone else, that he'd been acting rather odd and that he defended himself rather, uh, viciously as well.

However, today, I'll vote for

++littlemanpoet

[Eonwe]

well, well, well...

im at a loss right now. don't really know which direction to take. i seem to be a bit out of the loop and am haveing a hard time keeping up wiht arguemtns and stuff. again, if you could all quote useing names and post numbers, that would help me allot...

votes are now:

Lalaith, 1, (Glirdan)
Wilwa, 3, (Kitanna, Lalaith, lmp)
Menel, 3, (Firefoot, celuien, ang)
lmp, 2, (tar, menel)

think that's right...

i would strongly discourage voting lmp. there is always teh chance teh wolves will kill him to be sure, that he could be the seer, and that the ranger would protect him, thereby gaining us an extral day adn a known innocent. if we're gonna lynch him, it should be in a few days, when we have more info on him and the wolves have been given a chance to do their thing.

i think ill go with

++menel

don't ask me why. im doing my best to keep up with schoolwork (honestly!) and that is why i have been away so much and haven't really had much to say. gotta go.

[littlemanpoet]

Work the simplest theory that accounts for all the variables.

Easier said than done.

For the record:

1) I have not read any posts since my vote, so if anything looks weird as if I've ignored someone's post, or that I haven't noticed that I'm going to get lynched, I haven't read that far yet.

2) The purpose of this "for the record" is the proverbial "if I die" scenario, intended to help the innocent villagers as much as possible, and also "calling the werewolves out", as it were. That is, I really don't think they'll try to kill me toNight because I draw too much suspicion away from them. That is, unless I'm on target with my observations as to who the feral creatures are, then they may think it wise to 'off' me, even though their number one target is obviously the seer. So I'll probably survive the Night if I'm not lynched toDay.

3) The following people I consider innocent because of their worthy and/or honest appearing contributions (in alphabetical order):
Anguirel
Celuien
Firefoot
Lalaith
Granted, not much of a list; but if we can consider these four to be provisional "known innocents", as it were, and if we're lucky enough to be right about them, we've got a big "one up" on the werewolves. Just an observation.

4) I'm leaning innocent with:
tar ancalime - her contributions seem to be on the up and up, although a werewolvish reading can be made of them; same is probably true of most of us, however.

5) The following people are 50/50 with me, having contributed but being questionable:
Glirdan
Kath
Kitanna
I'm not sure on these three. They may be innocent, they may not be.

6) The following people seem suspicious to me:
Eonwe - too quiet and his posts haven't really been full of meat.
Meneltarmacil - again, too quiet.
Wayne - way too quiet; however, as strongly as I can, I abjure, recommend, etc., that he not be the one we try to lynch first. If he is one of the werewolves, we should wait to lynch him until there are only 7 total villagers left & no werewolves have been killed; because he may be gifted, and we don't want to run the risk of killing off one of our primary assets; if he hasn't proven useful by the time I've suggested above, then lynch him.
Wilwa - I'm afraid that we're wrong about her, but I've already voted. If she's innocent, I strorngly suggest that we need to take a good hard look at the three remaining suspicious on my list.

There. That's all.

Edit: Having cross-posted with a boatload of folks, I am having second thoughts about Eonwe, who seems honest to me; so that means that I'm also having second thoughts about those 50/50 people .... at least one of them would have to be a werewolf, if not Eonwe or Wilwarin. :confused:

[Kath]

I am so sorry I've been out of all this today and this is the only time I have now to talk.

I said I'd have a look at Menel and wilwa since they are gaining all the votes so:

Menel:
An apology for not voting, says he would have voted for Glirdan.
Thinks LMP could be a wolf because he wasn't killed even though he had been dropping hints about being the Seer all say.
Then again suspects LMP .
Still unsure over Glirdan.
Votes for LMP.

The thing is that I find it hard to believe that Menel can really have thought LMP was the Seer. The hints dropped are either so obvious as to be noticed by all as a distraction or LMP is playing one hell of a bluff.

wilwa:
A voting list.
Quick list of suspects, with Lalaith at the top.
Defends herself against suspicion about Bergil's death.
Reasons for suspecting Lalaith, which are reasonable though they could be explained if the posts were made early morning or late night.
Gives a very vague explanation for suspecting Glirdan.
The next three posts are very defensive - like yesterDay's.
And no vote I don't think - odd.

Ok I'm really close on the deadline now so I'm going to have to vote and I can't in all good conscience cause a double lynching so:

++MENEL

[WaynetheGoblin]

I think i will vote
++wilwa
She voted for bergil because he voted for her that is why and we have a better chanch to get a wolf with a double.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Accusations had been hurling around, but finally the Villagers had made their decision. They couldn't afford to keep Meneltarmacil around any longer. Pitchforks aloft the Villagers approached Meneltarmacil whom they had pinned in the corner of the village square. With admirable pitch-in-and-help spirit they prepared to stir up his guts, when they suddenly heard strange voices...

“Mutton yesterday, mutton today, and blimey, if it don’t look like mutton again tomorrer.”

Dumbfounded the villagers watched three enormous figures strolling into sight from the edge of the woods. Trolls! In a twinkling of an eye, the square was empty, excluding Meneltarmacil, who was cowering in the corner, where the villagers had left him.

The three trolls were sincerely happy to find Meneltarmacil, who was far from a mutton. Out of sheer joy, the trolls sat on him, roasted him and finally minced him fine and boiled him. After that little scene, the trolls danced away humming cheerfully and picking their teeth with oak saplings. Confused and extremely nauseous, the villagers returned to the square to collect Meneltarmacil's remnants and in silence they buried the trolls' left-overs.



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Celuien - luthier
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Kath - writer
Kitanna - goat herder
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
tar-ancalime - charlatan
WaynetheGoblin - goldsmith
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1
Kuruharan(ord) - half devoured and prepared to be turned into haggis on Night 2
Meneltarmacil(ord)- sat on, roasted, minced and boiled by three passing by trolls on Day 2

Score:
Villagers: 12
Wolves: 3

It is now Night 3. It ends in 24 hours... you know, the usual.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

"As you can see, when you look at me,
I'm pieces of what I used to be"



Fearing the worst and hoping for the best, Shamville woke up for the rising of the Sun, which grimaced at the drowsy townspeople as it climbed above their heads. In the usual fashion the lot gathered together to check the most recent head count only to discover that the volume of the villagers had yet again decreased with one. The writer was gone.

The villagers walked glumly to Kath's cottage. They saw already from far that her door had been torn off its hinges and dozens of reams of paper laid helter-skelter covering her front yard like snow. Guessing that it wouldn't be anything nice that awaited them, the villagers cautiously stepped over paper heaps and entered Kath's cabin.

It wasn't very tidy inside the house, either. Broken ink bottles and blood had stained Kath's board floor dark violet and there were quills and parchments all over the place. As the villagers stumbled into Kath's living room, they discovered that every single book of Kath's usually neatly organized bookshelf had been thrown on the floor, and in the middle of the mess, the villagers found their writer. Well, at least they found her arms, brain, ears, fingers, head, legs, toes and torso. The shelves had been filled with different body parts of Kath's - in alphabetical order, of course, and that had been the end of her story.



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Celuien - luthier
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Kitanna - goat herder
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
tar-ancalime - charlatan
WaynetheGoblin - goldsmith
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1
Kuruharan(ord) - half devoured and prepared to be turned into haggis on Night 2
Meneltarmacil(ord) - sat on, roasted, minced and boiled by three passing by trolls on Day 2
Kath(ord) - chopped up and organized alphabetically on Night 3

Score:
Villagers: 11
Wolves: 3

It is now Day 3. Wolves, please stop PMing. Villagers, you may start talking. The Day ends in 24 hours at 9:00 pm. GMT. Have fun!

[Glirdan]

Another day and two more innocents come to join me underground. :( Tis a sad day today, losing our village writer. Perhaps she left some knowledge amongst her writings that we have missed. I will go back and take a look. I also will be looking closely at those who voted for Kath or dear Menel, may you rest in peace. There has to be a Wolf in there. The votes weren't as spaced out as they were on Day 1.

My suspicions still stand, yet I might find something more from the others who voted for Menel. I will be back with an analysis shortly.

[wilwarin538]

YesterDay I got very close to being lynched. Which meens I'm probably the first candidate for lynching toDay.

Sooooo, I might as well tell you now that:

I am the seer

Wayne is a wolf

I dreamt of two ordinary villagers, but I'm afraid to say who they are since that would condemn them to death. If everyone can say at the start of their next post that you would be OK with me revealing you if I had dreamt of you, then I'll tell you the names of those two villagers. Once I get there permision.

Now to explain my wacked out way of thinking.

I have not dreamt of Lalaith. That was the whole point of that. To be extremely suspicious of someone who I wasn't so sure of. To me everything made sense, making it look like I was being way to obvious that I was the seer if she was guilty. If she was innocent...well I did have that part worked out, but I don't want to go into to much detail about my plans, since obviously they didn't work the way I had planned.

I suggest you all vote for Wayne, obviously since he is a lycan. The fact that he hasn't said much won't help us figure out who the other two are. I dreamt of him night1 and have been trying to guess the other 2, using my gut mostly, which sadly hasn't done much good.

So there's another post containing my pointless babble. Here's my vote:

++Wayne the Wolf

By the way, did you notice the irony of me being the seer? Since my role is town dayDreamer. haha I found that funny. ;)

[Kitanna]

Kath? Kath and her wisdom and brains will be missed. But I cannot dwell on her death at the moment for time presses me and I have only time to look at one of the two beloved dead and since Menel died first I will examine the cause of his death.

I’m quite concerned with the people who voted for Menel. All those votes seemed to come out of left-field. Looking back on posts from yesterday I still didn’t see any reason behind his lynching.

Meneltarmacil - hmmm, not really sad enough, considering the circumstances, he's half way between the half way point and the guilty point
The not being sad enough part was what through me off really. That seems like a strange reason, especially on day 2 to suspect someone. But Wilwa seemed to suspect Glirdan and Lalaith above Menel, didn’t vote.

Firefoot mentioned Menel early on due to the fact he was slightly suspicious of Kuru. Anguriel posts next seconding the fact Menel (and Kath) both were really the only ones to suspect Kuru. Still nothing as to why Menel garnered enough votes to be lynched.

When Firefoot posted her long analysis Menel was listed as “in between”. She’s not sure what to think of him. Yet she still puts him in her overall suspicious group.

Tar calls for Menel to speak more a while later. Asks for his reason as to why he would have voted for Glirdan on day one. Celuien asks him to do the same shortly after that. Firefoot brings him up later asking for him to speak more and she has now moved him up on her list of suspect. Some time later another plea from tar for Menel to speak up. But doesn’t really list him as suspicious.

Firefoot votes for Menel first, but she was naming him as a suspect all day. So, her vote wasn’t really a surprise to me. She had named him in many of her posts as suspicious, it is the other voters I am worried about. Anguriel says after Firefoot’s vote he might vote for Menel and then Celiuen says she agrees with all Firefoot has said on the matter concerning Menel.

Now here I get into an interesting post from Anguriel.
Celuien, I'd much rather lynch Menel than Wilwa and am alarmed at the pace at which this is developing...if you commit yourself and vote for Menel now, I'll follow you at once.

Then Celuien votes for Menel and gives a reason due to his silence and protests the Wilwa bandwagon. An attempt to save a wolfish Wilwa, possibly…Then as stated Anguriel follows with his own vote for Menel. No reason (in this post), just a vote.

Eonwe votes for Menel. For what appears to be a random vote. Kath votes for Menel. So aside from Firefoot is seemed like all votes for Menel came from nowhere, but I only did a quick skim of the posts from yesterday. I have much to do in the next few hours, but then I will be free until day ends so I will have plenty of time to go through again and correct my mistakes. But before I go I’m going to call on Wanye to speak more today. His two posts and then vote for Wilwa are not very helpful.

[Lalaith]

Well, well...this is all very intriguing. I'd be delighted to hear what the rest of you have to say to this.

Edit: I was of course referring to Wilwa's post. Kitanna's came while I was writing.

[wilwarin538]

Just like to add another little note. Perhaps we could make another kind of vote on who everyone wants me to dream of toNight. Since we still have our Ranger, and the Ranger probably didn't choose me last Night, they could protect me toNight giving me the chance to dream once more.

What do you all think?

[Kitanna]

Well it seems in the time it took me to reread and type all that our seer has come forward. Should I have been one of your dreams Wilwa please, feel free to reveal to the village. And of course, as though the ranger needs prompting, please ranger, protect our seer tonight.

EDIT: Perhaps we could make another kind of vote on who everyone wants me to dream of toNight.

There is a lot of buzz and uncertainty around lmp, Anguriel, tar, and Lalaith. Perhaps a dream about one of them?

[WaynetheGoblin]

I am no wolf it is a call for help.
++wilawerin538
She is just trying to stay alive because of what happend yesterday.

[Glirdan]

Here's a list of how yesterDay's voting proceded:

Lalaith, 1, (Glirdan)
Wilwa, 4, (Kitanna, Lalaith, lmp,Wayne)
Menel, 3, (Firefoot,Eonwe,Kath)
lmp, 1, (tar)

Now this really doesn't add up!?!? By the looks of things, Wilwa should have been the one to get lynched, not Menel!! What I think happened is that Wayne's late vote wasn't counted.

Firefoot, Eonwe, and Kath all voted for Menel. We now know that Kath is innocent which leaves Firefoot and Eonwe. Kitanna, Lalaith, lmp and Wayne all voted for Wilwa, who was supposed to be lynched but wasn't due to the lateness of Wayne's vote.

Now here's a little analysis on all of those people:

Wayne: His late vote makes him really suspicious. Maybe he didn't mean to vote that late, but maybe he did mean to vote late. If he is a Wolf, than he's doing that which everyone expects, which means he's either innocent or a very daring Wolf. His quietness is troubling as well. He provided no explanation as to why he was voting Wilwa which makes me think either he's a Wolf and she's innocent, she's a Wolf and he's innocent or there both Wolves and Wilwa told him to vote for her because she thought she was going to get lynched.

Eonwe: Haven't really looked closely on him since Day 1. He voted for Menel and gave no reason as to why. He just said don't ask why. Now that makes him look a little more suspicious in my eyes.

Lalaith: I strongly suspected yesterDay and still kind of do today. She definetly is not cleared yet. She voted for Wilwa because of the attack that Wilwa did on her yesterDay. However, I'd have to agree with Wilwa on one point, no matter how much I suspect her, and that's the fact that Lalaith has been acting very strange. Her vote for Wilwa is like a type of revenge for the attack on her which makes me suspect her even more.

Lmp: Has been under a great deal of suspicion, from me included. Voted for Wilwa because of her protesting to much and didn't trust her from the get go. Not as suspicious as much as others, yet still deserves watching.

Kitanna: First to vote for Wilwa. Voted for her because of the little argument that was going on between them and sugested they might be in league. Also because of her over defensiveness.

Firefoot: Hasn't had a whole lot of suspicion from anyone. First vote for Menel because Menel said little and it scared her. I agree that this is not the usual Menel, yet I wasn't scared enought to vote for him. I'll keep an eye on her, but that's about it.

I see that while I've been typing this, people have posted. Wilwa saying she's the Seer and that Wayne's a Wolf, well, I trust it, but I don't think we should all vote for him. I think we should spread our votes just a little. That way, we might be able to draw out another Wolf. So I'll wait to vote for a little while.

[Lalaith]

Glirdan, both Anguirel and Celuien voted for Menel. They did a pact. So he had five votes.

[Lalaith]

I'm not being funny or anything wilwa, and I'm sorry to be so suspicious, truly I am.
But can I just say that if it so happens that wilwa is not the seer, could the real seer please refrain from revealing themselves?

[Glirdan]

AHHH!!!! See, I missed that, that means I have to do an analysis of them. Thanks for pointing that out.

Anguriel: Well, I've suspected him a little yesterday. Voted for Menel because he wanted to test his theory. Worth watching.

Celuien: Haven't suspected yet. Voted for Menel to help Ang test his theory. Worth watching, but not to suspicious.

[Kitanna]

I'm not being funny or anything wilwa, and I'm sorry to be so suspicious, truly I am.
But can I just say that if it so happens that wilwa is not the seer, could the real seer please refrain from revealing themselves?
Though I do believe Wilwa may be the seer even if she's not I highly doubt she is a wolf. I feel prepares if not the seer she is possibly pulling a Fea thing and saying she is when in truth she is the ranger/hunter. I feel though she is innocent now.

If Wilwa is not the seer I still think Wayne may be a wolf. Judging by his response to her claim.

[littlemanpoet]

If Wilwa is not the seer, then the real seer absolutely must step forward and say so. If no-one comes forward to contest Wilwa's claim, then we may consider the matter wrapped up. Wayne is therefore a werewolf, which surprises none of us.

Wilwa, it's important that you name who the innocents were that you dreamed of. Known innocents are an important way for the innocent villagers to keep the werewolves in reaction mode. I note that yesterDay you defended the following: LMP, Firefoot, Anguirel, Kitanna. Please tell us who the innocents are.

Glirdan, your tally is incorrect.

The order of vote:
1. Glirdan : Lalaith (1)
2. Kitanna: Wilwa (1)
3. Firefoot: Menel (1)
4. Lalaith: Wilwa (2)
5. tar ancalime: LMP (1)
6. LMP: Wilwa (3)
7. Celuien: Menel (2)
8. Anguirel: Menel (3)
9. Menel: LMP (2)
10. Eonwe: Menel (4)
11. Kath: Menel (5)
12. Wayne: Wilwa (4)
Wilwa did not vote. Quite a smart thing, considering.

Wayne had cross-posted with Kath, and didn't know that Menel had already been given a 5th vote; quite a cynical thing to try to cause a double-lynching of two people we now know to be innocent; this condemns Wayne doubly.

So I think that in our voting on Day 2, every one of us voted for an innocent. Not good. But now we can rectify that. I'm not sure that yesterDay's voting is going to help us much at all in determing who the werewolves are.

One thing is certain, the Ranger needs to guard Wilwa tonight.

[Glirdan]

If Wilwa is not the seer I still Wayne may be a wolf. Judging by his response to her claim.

I most certainly agree with this. I definetly think Wayne is a Wolf, especially after that overdefensive post and vote for Wilwa. I say Wilwa is innocent and Wayne's a Wolf.

[Firefoot]

Here's the real voting:

Lalaith – 1 (Glirdan 1)
Wilwa – 4 (Kitanna 2, Lalaith 4, LMP 6, Wayne 12)
Menel - 5 (Firefoot 3, Celuien 7, Ang 8, Eonwe 10, Kath 11)
LMP – 2 (tar 5, Menel 9)

Did not vote: Wilwa

Now wait just a second, Wilwa. I am now strongly suspicious of you - in fact, I would bet right now that you're a wolf trying to save yourself a lynching. There is someone else who I strongly believe to be the Seer (and I'm not going to say any more about that except that I've felt strongly this way since early yesterDay), and your selection of Wayne to be a wolf is entirely too convenient. Besides, a real seer wouldn't come out and say it like that, not if they were smart (and I know you're smart, Wilwa) - they would try to nudge the voting in that direction and only come out in the open if they actually started acumulating votes, so that they could continue in anonymity and hopefully catch another wolf in the following nights. I find your refusal to state who the innocents are that you've dreamed of a mite bit suspicious as well, though being that we still have a Ranger it might make sense to hold that until tomorrow. How Wilwa is acting is not how a Seer should act at all.

Meneltarmacil - hmmm, not really sad enough, considering the circumstances, he's half way between the half way point and the guilty point

The not being sad enough part was what through me off really. Sorry, that was a typo. It should say said.

[Firefoot]

Sorry for the double post, but I had to say this:

In response to LMP's post: No, the real seer should not come out just yet (if Wilwa isn't). That would be the whole point if Wilwa was a wolf - to get the real Seer to say so. Since Wilwa was on the out anyway, it wouldn't be that great of a risk. Instead, let Wilwa say who her innocents are and what their occupations are - hopefully, she'd be wrong. This reeks of a wolvish plot.

Even though I was extremely suspicious of Wayne for his desire for a double vote, I think that he may be the innocent one in this.

[Lalaith]

No LMP, I disagree.
Look at the scenario.
Ok, so we lynch wayne today. If he's innocent, we know wilwa is lying.
If he's a wolf, and wilwa is still alive the day after the following night,(ie when the ranger can't protect her anymore) we also know wilwa is lying.

This is why I didn't want the seer to come forward if wilwa happened to be fibbing. There's no need for the seer to reveal themselves because the truth would out anyway.

edit: double post with firefoot

[wilwarin538]

Did not vote: Wilwa

Now wait just a second, Wilwa. I am now strongly suspicious of you - in fact, I would bet right now that you're a wolf trying to save yourself a lynching. There is someone else who I strongly believe to be the Seer (and I'm not going to say any more about that except that I've felt strongly this way since early yesterDay), and your selection of Wayne to be a wolf is entirely too convenient. Besides, a real seer wouldn't come out and say it like that, not if they were smart (and I know you're smart, Wilwa) - they would try to nudge the voting in that direction and only come out in the open if they actually started acumulating votes, so that they could continue in anonymity and hopefully catch another wolf in the following nights. I find your refusal to state who the innocents are that you've dreamed of a mite bit suspicious as well, though being that we still have a Ranger it might make sense to hold that until tomorrow. How Wilwa is acting is not how a Seer should act at all.


Wow, ouch.

I made a choice that I thought made sense. I know who a wolf is. That is valuble information for you guys.

You want proof?

I dreamt of you last night Firefoot, you are an Ordinary Villager.

Now do you believe me?

crossposted with Lalaith

[Kitanna]

Even though I was extremely suspicious of Wayne for his desire for a double vote, I think that he may be the innocent one in this.
I must disagree. You of course make good points against Wilwa as seer, but I still think she is innocent. You say her fashion of coming out as the seer is not something a real seer would do and that it is rather stupid and Wilwa is not stupid. Wilwa isn't stupid by a longshot of course which is what makes me think she is still innocent despite her role.

Her coming out as seer is a very foolish move if she's a wolf and Wilwa should know that. Doing something like that draws so much attention and then when her "wolf" is lynched and proved innocent everyone knows, the real seer has probably dreamt of her and is going to rat her out and the seer-wolf loses and a good chance comes about that the team will be discovered and they would lose. The wolves don't want that. Wilwa as a wolf and saying she is the seer seems far too stupid a plan for the wolves to try to establish.

In any case out of the two I find Wilwa more innocent than Wayne. And we should probably vote for one or the other today.

[Glirdan]

No Firefoot, I think Wilwa's timing of revealing herself is actually quite good. It makes sense for her to come out after all the votes she accumulated yesterDay. And I'm pretty sure she would have revealed herself sooner if she had the chance (time zone differences). I'm pretty sure she's the Seer, but if not, she's pulling a Fea and she's the Ranger/Hunter. If she's not the Seer, which I doubt, then the real Seer needs to remain hidden.

[Firefoot]

Well, I will concede to being an Ordo... it makes me feel slightly better, but not terribly so. After all, of the eight remaining villagers, five are Ordos, so it could have been lucky.

If you really are the Seer, I'm sorry, but I can't help but be suspicious right now. I'm really not sure what to think - I was about 98% confident that someone else was the Seer.

Sorry, this is all very disjointed as the thoughts are flying in my head. Another thing that I did not say was that if Wilwa was a wolf, we would now all be concentrating on her ruse and not looking for other wolves.

And yes, Wayne's response is suspicious but it's about what I'd expect from him. Really, if he was innocent and that happened, looking at how he's posted throughout the game... would any of you expect anything else? Honestly? He really does seem like too convenient of a target for a pseudo-seer.

Must think...

[Firefoot]

In response to Kitanna: there are a total of eight villagers left, three wolves. IF Wilwa was a wolf and we followed through and did what she said (that is, vote out Wayne), and found out he was innocent, by the time we got around to lynching her, the next Day after that the count would be down to 5-2. Considering that Wilwa was a primary target for lynching, it would make some sense. It would also remove the Ranger from the picture for a night, so the wolves would be guaranteed that kill.

It may be that I'm weighing Wilwa's style of playing Seer (if she is the seer) too much against how I would play it in her situation. I could be entirely wrong, but the whole thing feels very suspect to me.

[Lalaith]

would also remove the Ranger from the picture for a night,

well it wouldn't do that, Firefoot, if we lynched Wayne and found out he was innocent. The Ranger wouldn't protect wilwa in that scenario.

[Celuien]

Ah. Now here's a turn of events.

I see no reason not to vote for Wayne today. The only reason I'm not voting now is that I want debate to continue as long as possible. As has been pointed out, if he turns out to be innocent, Wilwa is a wolf. Either way, we've reduced the wolf count by one.

Honestly, I tend to believe what wilwa says. Because she was nearly lynched yesterday, this could well have been the last chance to reveal her dreams. If I were the Seer, I would have done the same thing rather than chancing going to my death without identifying a known wolf.

As to the 5-2 count, I'm willing to chance it to get another dream tonight if wilwa is the true Seer. Tomorrow we would have at least 10-2 with at least one known innocent, maybe two. With the 5-2 count given by a wolf-Wilwa, we would at least have given the true Seer a few more nights to dream and taken out one wolf in the process.

I only wish that Wayne would have been a little more vocal so that we could have found something to discover the other wolves. The only clue I have is their kill choices, which I'll have to think about today.

I doubt I was a dream, but if I was, wilwa, feel free to confirm my innocence.

[Glirdan]

I think it's time for us to start looking at the person Menel voted for, Lmp. He's been under some suspicion, enough suspicion to get to votes. I say it's time to conduct a thorough search of those who've been voted for by the four dead (may you all rest in peace and wreak your revenge once those Wolves get down underground with us!!). I'll be back and say what I've come up with.

[Celuien]

well it wouldn't do that, Firefoot, if we lynched Wayne and found out he was innocent. The Ranger wouldn't protect wilwa in that scenario.

True. The only scenario when the Ranger would be out of the picture would be if wilwa and Wayne are both wolves and wilwa is giving him up to appear to be the true Seer.

[Lalaith]

Yes, exactly, Celuien. To kind of repeat myself again, we've got three possibilities here.
1. Wilwa is telling the truth. We kill Wayne today, he is a wolf, ranger protects wilwa tonight, we vote on who to dream of, and she tells us her dream tomorrow.
2. Wilwa is lying. We kill Wayne today, he is innocent. Ranger protects someone else. We kill Wilwa tomorrow.
3. Wilwa is lying. We kill Wayne today, he is guilty. This is the trickiest of the possibilities. But still ok. If wilwa is still alive the day after tomorrow, we will have two wolves in the bag, even if we accidentally lynch an innocent tomorrow the villager/wolf ratio will be 5-1 if we kill wilwa the day after.

Again, wilwa, I'm really sorry to seem so mean and churlish if you really are a brave seer coming out to help save us. But I think suspicion is for the best in the long run. And I agree with those who say you should say who you have dreamt of.

[Lalaith]

I'm going to bed now. It's a bit boring I know, but I can't think of a better idea than to lynch Wayne toDay and see what happens.
But everyone else, feel free to concoct cunning plans in my absence.

Glirdan, there's no point spreading votes around that I can see. The remaining wolves will vote for Wayne now, I expect, but so will most of the rest of us, so it won't tell us much.

[Glirdan]

Lmp was the one that raised the question and debate of whether or not we should have a leader. If he was a Wolf, it got the results he wanted, people talking about his plan and not him. But the question is, would a Wolf do something like this so early on? And Lmp isn't that supid to do something like that. Or would he do something like that to fool us? It would also explain why they chose to attack Kuru and Kath. They were to smart for their own good and, if I'm right, they didn't suspect Lmp a whole lot. So they were perfect choices for him.

So, what do you all think about the one of the smartest people amongst us? Is he innocent, or does he have a furry little secret?

[Glirdan]

Glirdan, there's no point spreading votes around that I can see. The remaining wolves will vote for Wayne now, I expect, but so will most of the rest of us, so it won't tell us much.

You have a point there Lalaith, so I might as well vote for him now and be done with it. Yet that doesn't mean I'll be leaving just yet. Oh no it doesn't. I'll still be around for ahile yet.

++WaynetheGoblin who's really a Wolf

[littlemanpoet]

Hypothesis:

Wilwa is seer (surprising everybody)
Wayne is a werewolf (surprising nobody)
Firefoot is a known innocent (surprising nobody)

The following have already shown today by their in depth attempts at deciphering the latest information that they are very likely innocent:
Celuien
Kitanna
Lalaith
LMP (look, I have to include myself since it's an hypothesis, and I know I'm innocent, regardless of what the rest of you think)

There is one person that has been recommending that which seems rather counter-productive to me, namely (1) looking at yesterDay's votes to figure out who the werewolves are, and (2) spreading out the votes; I still think that no werewolves were voted for yesterDay. That counter-productive individual is Glirdan. Take note. I say this individual is a prime suspect for werewolf #2.

That leaves the following, amongst whom there is the third werewolf:
Anguirel
Eonwe
tar ancalime

Of these three, Anguirel seems least likely to be a werewolf; Eonwe could be playing innocent with his "please help me" routine, although that could be honest trouble he's having. I'm 50/50 about tar ancalime, who of these three is playing the most subtle, intelligent game, is she's a werewolf. I think these three need to get a serious look.

I recommend that Wilwa, if truly the seer, dream of Glirdan toNight. If she's not the seer, then let the actual seer dream of Glirdan. I'm quite interested to get a response and agreement or disagreement on this. Oh, and if I'm way off and Glirdan is the seer, which I doubt, then he ought to dream of Eonwe or tar ancalime; but I doubt that scenario holds true at all, just trying to cover all the bases of this hypothesis.

Which reminds me to mention one more thing: since I'm an ordinary innocent (you'll just have to make up your mind whether to believe me or not), please don't waste your dream on me, seer.

[Firefoot]

All right, I'm still not 100% convinced that Wilwa is innocent, but I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for now. I wish I could shake the feeling that we're walking into a trap, that this is exactly what the wolves wanted... in fact, if she is a wolf, I'd say this would be a brilliant move by the wolves, as it rather forces our hand. Either we have to reveal the true seer or we are forced to vote for an innocent before voting for a wolf that was on the way out anyway.

Wilwa, I'll feel really bad if you really are the Seer. And whether she is or is not, I think I probably just got myself killed by wolves tonight - especially if she is. :rolleyes:

On to other things... I'm going to stop looking at Wilwa and Wayne for a while and work on other people. Unless someone says something that I have to respond to, I will be focusing wholly on other possible suspects in my next post.

Edit: cross-posting with LMP, looks like a sound post to me...

[Celuien]

Lmp was the one that raised the question and debate of whether or not we should have a leader. If he was a Wolf, it got the results he wanted, people talking about his plan and not him. But the question is, would a Wolf do something like this so early on? And Lmp isn't that supid to do something like that. Or would he do something like that to fool us? It would also explain why they chose to attack Kuru and Kath. They were to smart for their own good and, if I'm right, they didn't suspect Lmp a whole lot. So they were perfect choices for him.

So, what do you all think about the one of the smartest people amongst us? Is he innocent, or does he have a furry little secret?

Personally, I still tend toward trusting lmp. He is definitely smart enough to appear completely innocent during the day while terrorizing Shamville at night.

I think it's best to settle the controversy once and for all. As a confirmed innocent, his brilliant strategizing would be of enormous benefit to the village. And if he is a wolf (:eek:) and has fooled me with his treachery, we need to know. So, Wilwa - please dream of lmp tonight (I'm assuming he was not the dream from two nights ago).

The analysis of Kuru and Kath's deaths seems spot on. They were both intelligent villagers who left little trail and for that reason perfect choices for the wolves. Therefore, I'm sure there's a mastermind in the wolvish trio. Firefoot is cleared by wilwa, whether a wolf or not (even if the wilwa-wolf theory is true, a wolf would know that she is innocent and could use the knowledge to try to gain Firefoot's trust). I'm willing to clear Ang on the basis of my own analysis unless something drastic happens. That leaves tar-ancalime, Kitanna, Lalaith, and, actually, you Glirdan, for the main possibilities, as all have shown excellent strategy/analysis skills to date.

And there's no point really to spreading votes. Granted, we're not going to learn much from voting patterns today, but that's not going to happen anyway since Lalaith is correct that the wolves will most likely vote for Wayne to avoid appearing to defend him. Spreading votes won't uncover them. As for those of us who are non-lupine, I'd just feel strange voting for a possible innocent with a possible known wolf right in front of us, especially when that vote wouldn't serve any purpose for gathering information anyway. Better to help guarantee lynching a werewolf.

EDIT: cross posted with lmp, Firefoot and Glirdan. On second thought, while I would like to settle the controversy surrounding the undertaker for the remaining villagers who suspect him, there's something to be said for a Glirdan dream. And so, I'll change my vote to go along with that plan, since at this point, I believe with about as much certainty as a non-Seer can have that lmp is not a wolf.

[Glirdan]

That leaves tar-ancalime, Kitanna, Lalaith, and, actually, you Glirdan, for the main possibilities, as all have shown excellent strategy/analysis skills to date.

I agree with you that there has to be a mastermind behind it and yes, all of us have shown tallent, I'm not denying that. But now we have to add you in there to, don't we? You've had a lot of good theories going around. So there's a chance that you could be a Wolf. But I'm pretty sure that you are innocent and that either Lalaith or Lmp or both are a Wolf. That's why I don't trust them and they are at the top of my suspect list. I'm definetly watching them.

[Kitanna]

I am going to go on and trust Wilwa.

++ Wayne

I had suspected him in my posts from yesterday and today (one I cross-posted with Wilwa). Wilwa's coming out as seer only makes me suspect him more. If we're wrong and Wayne is lynched as an innocent the Ranger will have to think hard on who to protect. But then tomorrow we clearly cast stones to Wilwa. But if Wilwa is right and hopefully that will remove doubt, the ranger will probably need no prompting in protecting her and she can let us know tomorrow who she dreamt of.
We may lose a villager if we're wrong about Wilwa, but we have a wolf. And if we're right we kill a wolf. So in either case we bring the wolf count down to 2.

[Eonwe]

well ill jump in here. sorry im a bit late. i was going to post earilier but got interupted. rather rudely, i might add. anyway...

haveing not read all the posts, i am quite intregued. there a few possible senarios that arrise from the wilwa=seer idea. which im not 100% sold on, by the way.

normally, i would say: "wolf? a wolf would never be so foolish to do something like that. innocent? she's not fea, you know. seer? must be." but given teh rather close shave she had with the noose last evening, that on longer holds true. ok three senarios.

wilwa is a wolf:

wilwa as a wolf could do us great damage. first she could be hoping to take down an innocent with her. actually this would accomplish two things. the other being to render our vote useless as a record tomarrow, because all the votes would be assumed to be for wilwa. cuz we would know she is a wolf after lynching a supposed innocnet wayne. the other thing would be flushing out the seer. the only way to prove that she isn't the seer is for teh real seer to come out. (actually, only the hypothetically real seer adn wayne know if she is telling the truth, just realized that.) i think that is a rather sever amount of damage deal for one wolf kill.

wilwa is the seer:

could be. she could have seen how close she got to death yesterday and freaked out (i know all about that :rolleyes: .) she has one know wolf that she would want to get recognized. not only that, she has one dream left (possibley two, though that is playing a dangerous game there ranger!). not a bad haul for a seer.

wilwa is innocent:

umm. you better not be ;) .

You want proof?

I dreamt of you last night Firefoot, you are an Ordinary Villager.

Now do you believe me?

no. that does nothing to assuage my doubts. you know who everone is if you are a wolf. although now that i think of it it kind of does, a bit, cuz you would be playing a desparate game saying that directly to a fellow wolf.

here's some stuff about wayne:

if wilwa is the seer, wayne must be a wolf. if wilwa is infact a wolf, there are two differnt lines of logic she could choose:

pick a wolf, so when we lynch her, we will trust her. this is doubtful, cuz the idea isn't to have us trust her, its just to have us trust her for a day. the wolf sacrafise would be a long-run option.

pick an innocent to bring down with her. not a bad idea.

so as for what im thinking overall, i don't think we should lynch wayne. that would be kind of counter productive, becasue we have a huge bullseye on his head if wilwa is the seer, and we have a known innocent if she's a wolf.

more next time...

edited mixed some stuff up. sorry.

[Celuien]

I agree with you that there has to be a mastermind behind it and yes, all of us have shown tallent, I'm not denying that. But now we have to add you in there to, don't we? You've had a lot of good theories going around. So there's a chance that you could be a Wolf. But I'm pretty sure that you are innocent and that either Lalaith or Lmp or both are a Wolf. That's why I don't trust them and they are at the top of my suspect list. I'm definetly watching them.

Heh, I'm flattered. But I suppose I should be there for everyone else's list of possibilities. I just didn't include myself on my own suspect list.

[Eonwe]

Eonwe could be playing innocent with his "please help me" routine, although that could be honest trouble he's having.

misunderstood again! just say what you why do think something clearly, that way i don't have to ask about it, be suspcious about it, or fall into a timezone-type dispute, thereby throwing everyone off-track. all i want is facts and reasons. clarity is golden. i say this every game, because it makes sense.

oh and ps. what we should really be thinking here is if a wolfwilwa woudl think the evidense accruded against her yesterday was sufficient for peole to bring her up again today. which would lead her to the desparate stratay of impersenating teh seer.

[Celuien]

here's some stuff about wayne:

if wilwa is the seer, wayne must be a wolf. if wilwa is the seer, there are two differnt lines of logic she could choose:

pick a wolf, so when we lynch her, we will trust her. this is doubtful, cuz the idea isn't to have us trust her, its just to have us trust her for a day. the wolf sacrafise would be a long-run option.

pick an innocent to bring down with her. not a bad idea.

so as for what im thinking overall, i don't think we should lynch wayne. that would be kind of counter productive, becasue we have a huge bullseye on his head if wilwa is the seer, and we have a known innocent if she's a wolf.

more next time...

Now, that's peculiar. Further judgment reserved until the promised "more next time" hopefully provides more explaination.

[wilwarin538]

no. that does nothing to assuage my doubts. you know who everone is if you are a wolf. although now that i think of it it kind of does, a bit, cuz you would be playing a desparate game saying that directly to a fellow wolf.

I was saying that directely to Firefoot. She obviously knows she's an ordianry villager. If I was lying, and I had just said she was an ord as a guess, that could have completely blown my ruse as the seer. She could have easily been a ranger or hunter. Then she would have known I was lying since I corrisponded her with the wrong role. The chances of me guessing that she is an ord, and her actaully being an ord is slim. I'm surprised she still has doubts.

But it is understandable. Im probably doing one of the worst jobs as seer ever. :rolleyes:

I have to go to sleep now. I'll be back an hour before voting is closed.

I'm still not sure who to dream of. I'm debating between Lalaith and LMP.

[Glirdan]

Heh, I'm flattered.

You should be flattered friend, you are a very smart individual. That's why I suspect you, yet not as much as some others.

As for Wilwa (or the Seer) dreaming of me tonight, go right ahead and dream about me. But you'll be wasting a dream. I honestly think we should be putting that dream towards Lalaith, the one person no one is certain of. She has been accused quite a bit, or has been on people's suspicion list.

[Eonwe]

welllll, i guess that does make sense wilwa. hadn't thought about the gifted aspect. sigh...all that theororizing for nothing... :( though i will have to rethink it through.

ok rethought it, and it doens't quite clear you. firefoot could be a wolf. but that is doubtful. and you could concievebly have gotten lucky. i say that because there would be some reason to guess like that if you were a wolf, seeing as you have a day, two if your lucky, to live (going off you being a wolf that is). *long sigh*

Celuien, i guessing that your question is about the seer lines of logic? i mixed tehm up. the second seer should read wolf. :o

edited: finally touches.

[tar-ancalime]

++ Wayne


I really think we have to take Wilwa's claim at face value. Believe her, don't believe her, think what you like; we'll know soon enough, and it makes sense for us to act as though she's telling the truth.

Here's why:

She needs to reveal her dreams to us. Having stated that she dreamed of innocents, even if she's lying she'll produce two known innocents (one already being Firefoot, of course) to bolster her credibility. This information, whatever its provenance, is immensely useful to us.

(The opposite possibility, that wilwa is herself a wolf and that the "innocents" she'll produce for us are her comrades-in-paws, is frightening but there isn't really anything we can do about it. And as I mentioned above, we'll know soon enough. Lynching Wayne will tell us plenty.)

But if Wilwa really is the Seer, we are in a very good position indeed: we can stop venting our collective spleens on whomever she has already dreamed of, we pick off a wolf tonight, and (presuming the Ranger's protection) we get at least one more dream.

All three Gifteds can profit from the information Wilwa can give us: the Ranger can play peek-a-boo with the wolves for at least a few days among the three known innocents, the Seer (wilwa) gets protected long enough to dream one more time, and the Hunter has his/her pool of potential targets narrowed considerably.

Even if we're totally convinced wilwa is lying, we've got to behave as though she really is the Seer. The truth will out, and we will have bought the real Seer precious time.

I feel very strongly that even debating wilwa's veracity is beside the point. No matter who or what she really is, it can only help us to take her advice for at least one DAY and lynch Wayne.

I suggest we follow Firefoot's lead, table this issue, and spend the rest of the DAY discussing the other suspect.

[tar-ancalime]

Oops! Last line of my previous post should read "the other suspects." :eek:

[Celuien]

Celuien, i guessing that your question is about the seer lines of logic? i mixed tehm up. the second seer should read wolf. :o

That was the question, in addition to disagreeing that lynching Wayne is counterproductive. The best way to test Wilwa's veracity and hopefully get rid of a wolf is to lynch Wayne.

I didn't see a Wayne post.

I just thought of something. LMP is the only one so far to have asked NOT to be dreamt about. So far, it doesn't change my opinion of him, but it could be taken as an indication of guilt. I don't know what to think. I'll trust in Wilwa's judgment.

Finally, I need to go to sleep, so I'll be leaving soon. I'll try to get back in the morning to continue the discussion, but in case I don't, I want to make sure my vote goes to

++WAYNE

[WaynetheGoblin]

I did not post anything. Well im dead i probebly wont win either but i guess i had fun actually not really butit was a good game thank you spawn.

[Eonwe]

well i guess lynching wayne would be the surefire way to get at wilwa. i was thinking if wilwa is a wolf, the wolves can't kill her, so if she doen't die in two nights they we will have the truth without killing wayne either. but i guess that we would still have to wade through this: (which would be a tough call to make)

if wilwa is the seer, wayne must be a wolf. if wilwa is in fact a wolf, there are two differnt lines of logic she could choose:

pick a wolf, so when we lynch her, we will trust her. this is doubtful, cuz the idea isn't to have us trust her, its just to have us trust her for a day. the wolf sacrafise would be a long-run option.

pick an innocent to bring down with her. not a bad idea.


edit: dangit, i keep doing that! sorry for the confustion.

[Eonwe]

sorry to double post. hey its my first. ever. :smokin:

i prolly shouldn't have deleted my post. wayne im almost freaking possitive you posted somthink about kittana being the other wolf. i read it, went to post, actually scrolled down to look at who you were thinking of adn posted. but when i did, mine was the only one there. am i halusinating? :eek:

[WaynetheGoblin]

I think you are seeing things because i didnt post. I like the idea where i dont get killed lets do that one please. If we do that the village will be happy since i am innicent.

[tar-ancalime]

Well, it seems we now know how to get Wayne to post more frequently! Multiple posts already, and it's still early in the DAY.

[Firefoot]

Well, I'd like to come out with a nice neat list with everyone on it, and I've tried, but quite honestly... I'm feeling wholly un-analytical right now. Caput conficitur. (Basically - brain is fried.) So... thoughts as they come:

I'm feeling uneasy about Glirdan right now. LMP mentioned Glirdan's counter-productivity, and for the most part, I agree. He keeps going back to LMP, as well. Yesterday I was starting to think he might be innocent, and now I'm not sure again.

I'm still feeling comfortable with Kitanna and LMP; Celuien has stopped feeling entirely innocent to me.

Okay, you know what? This is not working - there just isn't a whole lot of new material to work with, mostly just a Wilwa-Wayne debate. Maybe I'll get up early and try to do this. I probably wouldn't be trying to do this at all if I didn't think I was likely to die tonight. How do I always manage to get cleared?

Oh, and the only way Wayne does not die today is if every single other person votes for Wilwa. I can already tell you that I will not - too risky in case she is the seer.

Apologies for a probably just about wholly incoherent post.

[littlemanpoet]

LMP is the only one so far to have asked NOT to be dreamt about. So far, it doesn't change my opinion of him, but it could be taken as an indication of guilt. I don't know what to think. I'll trust in Wilwa's judgment.

On the contrary. I would be a very stupid werewolf to put such an onus upon myself. It's not the way I would act if I were a werewolf. Of course, you may not believe that. Still, all I can do is tell you that I said it for the obvious reason, which is that if our seer is Wilwa and has only one free night to dream, please, don't waste it on an innocent!

[littlemanpoet]

One more "damning" piece of evidence on Wayne: notice that his signature has changed since Wilwa pointed him out as a werewolf. It was an unwise move on his part, but by identifying himself toDay as one who is yet again about to lose a game of werewolf, he condemns himself.

[tar-ancalime]

One more "damning" piece of evidence on Wayne: notice that his signature has changed since Wilwa pointed him out as a werewolf. It was an unwise move on his part, but by identifying himself toDay as one who is yet again about to lose a game of werewolf, he condemns himself.

Really? This is what I found just now when I checked one of his posts:

I never win the werewolf game do I.

Isn't that what he had before? Or am I losing my mind?

[littlemanpoet]

I have a risky idea, which may end up helping to clear or indite (sp?) those who have not yet voted. My suggestion is that all those who have not yet voted, vote for Glirdan. His face-saving early vote for Wayne, along with everything else he's been saying today (even separating out his attacks against me) just make him really suspicous. If all five of us vote for Glirdan, we have a double lynching (yes, that's me recommending it :p), and the chance at getting rid of two werewolves in one Day ... if I'm right about him. Before I cast my vote, I'd like to see opinions from all.

That means that Anguirel, Eonwe, Firefoot, Lalaith, and I have a chance to put our votes on the line in a meaningful way. If Glirdan turns out to be a werewolf, all five of us have gained more credibility. Of course, if one of us is a werewolf, we're playing a very, very risky dare by playing along with this, and therefore it would not really be name-clearing; however, if we get two werewolves at once, we're in a very good position.

The risk factor, however, is that Glirdan is not a werewolf, and is gifted instead. If that is the case, I'll eat a corpse. I'm not completely sure this is the best strategy, so I'm hoping for feedback.

[littlemanpoet]

Isn't that what he had before? Or am I losing my mind?
I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

[Eonwe]

wow i sincerly hope taht glirdan is not gifted. :( (this stands for puking)

the plan has merit, assuming i can dig up wha tyou have on glirdan. and it would vituly seal our village's fate, if glirdan came out innocent. so it is defineitly a gamble that could be worth taking. defineitely needs consideration...tomarrow.

[Firefoot]

All right, I can see the merit in that. The only issue would be if Glirdan were the Ranger; that could be fatal for the villagers (well, maybe not quite, but you get the gist). If he's the Seer... I don't think he is. If Wilwa is not, I think I might know who is, and it's not Glirdan. If he's the hunter, more power to him... he should probably take out Eonwe or tar.

As a just in case, though, one (or two) of the people on that list should be around at the end of voting in case Glirdan does show up saying he's gifted. If nothing else, it will corner the wolves into their kill for the next Night or two (depending on Wilwa's giftedness). It shouldn't be me; I can't guarantee my presence at the end of voting.

[Lalaith]

Hmm...I'm not sure.
If Wilwa is lying and Wayne is innocent, and then Glirdan is innocent too, we really are shafted. I'm inclined just to lynch Wayne.
Wilwa, you're welcome to dream of me tonight if you like, it would be a bit boring (for me) as I'd much rather know the identity of LMP or Anguirel, but if I'm seen as the most interesting one then I suppose I should be flattered....

One thing I would say however is that when and if Wilwa reveals to us who she has dreamt of, she should NOT say who, if any, of her dream subjects are gifted, just that they are innocent.

I think I'm going mad with paranoia...I suddenly thought, what if Wilwa, LMP and Firefoot were wolves? Firefoot attacks wilwa's revelation, then is calmed by wilwa's assurance that she (Firefoot) is an ordinary villager. Then LMP comes out with his plan for a second lynching (of an innocent). Firefoot agrees...

Now, I'm not saying this is what I really think. But it could be true, and so could a lot of other crazy things. So I think we should play it safe and just lynch Wayne today.