Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Alcarillo]

It is the early winter of 3318 of the Second Age, and Ar-Pharazôn is at the height of his power. The Elendili are persecuted at every turn, and hundreds have been sacrificed to Melkor in Sauron's Temple.

On the northernmost tip of Númenor, two Elendili hide in a tiny village. But they have been discovered by a spy of the king, and three houseless fëar of wolves drift into the town this very moment, as the moon rises and the fog rolls in from the sea . . .

Welcome to Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva!

How the Game Works

The Werewolf Game is divided up into two different parts: DAY and NIGHT. Each lasts 24 hours.

The DAY starts with a description of what happened and who was killed over the previous night. That person's role will be revealed in the post. During the DAY, the villagers discuss the game on this thread and try to detect the wolves. They can lynch who they think are wolves by casting votes, like this:

++Alcarillo

Whomever receives the most votes is lynched. Votes are non-retractable. Once you vote, you cannot change it. The Hunter PMs the moderator daily and nightly to choose a victim in the event that the Hunter is about to be lynched. The DAY ends at midnight GMT with a post describing the lynching. The lynched villager's role is revealed in the post (All dead villager's roles are revealed).

Then the NIGHT begins after the lynching. During the NIGHT, nobody may post on this thread; you're all asleep. The NIGHT is also when the werewolves PM each other to decide upon a victim. Then one of the wolves PMs the moderator with the name of their victim. The Seer also PMs the moderator to choose a villager to dream about. And the Ranger also PMs the moderator to choose a villager to protect, and the Hunter too PMs the moderator to choose a victim in the event that the werewolves come after him. NIGHTs, like DAYs, end at midnight GMT with a description of the night's werewolf kill, revealing the victim's role. Then a new DAY starts, the villagers vote, a villager is lynched, and so on.

When you're lynched or killed by werewolves, you're dead. That means no more posting on this thread. You may be dead, but you're not a zombie.

Victory

The villagers win when all of the werewolves have been lynched. The cobbler automatically runs away to Armenelos to report the bad news to the King.

The werewolves win when the number of villagers is equal to that of the remaining werewolves, when the latter is strong enough to rise up against the rest of the village.

Additional Rules, Notices, etc.

Mass-lynchings have a two-person maximum. If there is a three-way or greater-way tie, I'll lynch the first two to be tied.

Please do not edit your posts! We want everybody to see exactly what has been said. Double-post, instead.

You will be told if the Ranger has saved somebody from the werewolves, but not who was saved. If you are guarded by the Ranger one night, you will also not be told.

There are no hidden clues in my posts, not even in this one. When I use players' names, that means nothing important. Also, when I use "he", I mean "he or she".

Players absolutely cannot PM each other concerning the game. Only the werewolves may PM each other at NIGHT.

Please don't refer to other werewolf games. Don't say things like, "When I was the Mayor of Swankytown back in WWIIX…" or "In WWXI, this happened…".

Stay invisible, please.

Also, you are allowed to say anything you want about your role, but you are not allowed to post any definite proof (like the PM I sent you).

Roles

Ordinary villagers: Ordinary villagers discuss the game's events during the DAY and try to discover and lynch the werewolves. During the NIGHT they are to remain silent and not post on this thread. This also applies to all other roles.

Hunter: The Hunter, if lynched or attacked by werewolves, can kill another villager alongside him. The Hunter PMs the moderator daily and nightly with his choices in case he is killed.

Ranger: The Ranger, one of the Elendili, protects a villager's home each NIGHT, guarding that villager from the werewolves. However, the Ranger cannot defend a villager from the Hunter. The Ranger PMs the moderator nightly to choose which villager he wishes to guard.

Seer: The Seer is visited each NIGHT in his dreams by Ulmo, who reveals the true identity of a villager of the Seer's choosing. The Seer PMs the moderator nightly to choose a player whose role he wishes to know.

Werewolves: There are three werewolves, sent by Sauron to destroy the village. They avoid detection by DAY and by NIGHT kill one of the villagers. Only during NIGHT can they PM one another and decide upon a victim. Then one of them PMs the moderator with the name of the victim. The victim's death is described at the end of the NIGHT and signals the beginning of the DAY.

Cobbler: The Cobbler is an agent of Ar-Pharazôn and wants to see the village destroyed by the werewolves. During the DAY he tries to throw the village off track and generally make things tougher for them. He can even sacrifice himself if necessary to help the werewolves. However, he does not know who the werewolves are.

Players

Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Dancing spawn of ungoliant - embroider
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Gurthang – (possibly unemployed) dockhand
Holbytlass – butcher
Jack – blacksmith and farrier
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
Rune Son of Bjarne – Union leader
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor
Wilwarin538 – fiddler

I, your mod, am a tax collector.

Tonight

NIGHT 1 has now begun. Tonight is unique, because I, the moderator, will be the werewolves' victim when morning comes. I only need a PM from the seer so I can give him a dream to fuel DAY 1's activities. The werewolves may PM each other to get to know one another and plan for DAY 1. Also, PM me if you have any questions about your role or how the game works. DAY 1 begins in 24 hours. Sleep tight!

[Alcarillo]

An empty cart creaked down a dirty road at breakneck speed. Its lone rider sped as fast as he could to the village at its end. The midnight moon lit the path from gaps in the thick evergreens to either side, and more than once a root reaching from the darkness jostled the cart until its driver nearly fell out. A crumbling wall lined one side of the road, signaling that the village was approaching. And soon the forest stopped to make way for buildings, and the road plummeted through the village down towards the harbor. The driver turned along a street running across the slope. Relatively free of trees and houses, it gave a grand view of the harbor. Three piers jutted out into the water, all different lengths and with different sized boats moored at them. Beyond the harbor's black-cliff mouth thick fog masked the northern sea from view. But now the cart reached a tiny home at very end of the road, and its driver leapt from the cart. After unleashing the horse, he unlocked the door and entered the house, where he instantly lit a lamp, gathered pen and paper, and wrote in a hurry:

I have returned from Armenelos, under the guise of bringing the king his taxes. My spying was a success, but we now face grave danger. The king's men know we are here. Already now, three werewolves of Sauron are among the village-folk! I will take the news to Elendil as soon as possible. Meanwhile, you must protect the village from the werewolves. Each night, guard the home of an innocent. We cannot let the werewolves decrease our numbers to the point that they can rise up and slaughter us! This may be difficult, as there is an agent of Ar-Pharazôn in the village also. It was he who alerted the King of our presence. He will try to foil our every move!

But we have help. Our village is home to a seer. Each night, he is visited in his dreams by Ulmo. I do not know his identity, but if you can find out, use his visions to find the werewolves as soon as possible and lynch them!

There is also a mighty hunter in the village. He is strong enough to kill a werewolf with his bare hands! When the werewolves (or villagers, when they discover the werewolves) come for him, we can be sure that he will kill who he thinks is guilty of werewolvery, guilty or innocent they may be.

I am headed off to Andúnië at this very moment, so you'll be the only Elf-friend in the village for some time. I shall return with allies.

-Alcarillo

Alcarillo folded his letter and moved towards the door, but as soon as his hand touched the door knob, the door burst inwards with the force of a battering ram. Three shapes, like furry men, leapt into the home. Shadows concealed their faces from view. Alcarillo drew his sword, but one of the werewolves wrenched it from his hands and stabbed him through the stomach. Alcarillo's life flashed before his eyes: his childhood in Ondosto, meeting Elendil for the first time that winter's day so long ago, and the first time he met the Elf-friend with whom he would take turns spying upon the King. The werewolves fled into the night, leaving the sword embedded in Alcarillo's torso, and he slumped to the floor in the moonlight, still clutching his letter in one hand.

* * * * *

When young Dawn with her rose-red fingers shone once more over the village, the village-folk were already awake and about their daily chores. But something was amiss. Kath was the first to notice that Alcarillo was missing. She said by the docks:

"Hey, Alcarillo isn't nagging me about tax evasion! Where is he?"

This prompted a town meeting. The harbourmaster rang the town gathering bell and everybody in the village gathered at the docks.

"Alcarillo left for Arminalêth a week ago to deliver the taxes," the Saucepan Man said to explain Alcarillo's absence.

"But he should've been back last night!" said Wayne, "I asked him to purchase some more leeches for me while he was in the city."

"He could've ran late, perhaps crashed his cart into a tree," said Mormegil, "His cart was never very sturdy."

"But my horse, which Alcarillo borrowed, returned to his stables last night," said Jack.

"Then we can only go to his house and see if he is sick, perhaps," decided the Saucepan Man, "Follow me!"

All of the villagers climbed the main road up the slope, up from the docks in the harbor and towards the dark forest on the hills, on a pilgrimage to Alcarillo's house. The sky was overcast as usual, with fog in the distance and at the edges of the harbor. Seagulls sat in flocks on rooftops, and would fly into the air at the least provocation. The entire town had a tense aura of anxiety as the group turned from the main road and onto the street along the hillside, where Alcarillo's home sat. They approached the house, and the were surprised to find that the door was ajar; one of the hinges was loose. The group took in unison a giant gulp of anticipation of the horrible. What had happened? Finally the terrible dread was finished as those in the front of the group shouted in utter disbelief, "He's dead!"

The group filed into the tiny house, all gazing at Alcarillo's pale body on the floor. His long, shining sword had stabbed deep into his stomach, so far that the tip of the sword protruded from his back. A few of the ladies swooned at the ghastly sight. Formendacil reached for something in Alcarillo's hand. "A letter." He unfolded the paper, straightened his spectacles, and read in his official, office clerk's voice what Alcarillo had written, during which someone would occasionally murmur an "Oh, my" or a "Good heavens".

He finished reading the paper, and there was a short pause of silence. "So he was an Elf-friend this entire time," said Lhuna, "And the werewolves killed him."

"Then we can only do one thing," Fordim the pearl diver said, "Lynch the werewolves."

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod – impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Dancing spawn of ungoliant - embroider
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Gurthang – (possibly unemployed) dockhand
Holbytlass – butcher
Jack – blacksmith and farrier
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
Rune Son of Bjarne – Union leader
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor
Wilwarin538 – fiddler

It is now DAY 1. Villagers, you may now talk. Werewolves, stop PMing. And Hunter, get a name to me by the DAY's end in case you're lynched.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Alcarillo was one of my best friends in the village may we slay the ones who did this.

[The Saucepan Man]

Werewolves you say? Tricksy fellows, Werewolves. Reminds me of the time we was sailing in the South Seas and went ashore on an island to replenish our food 'n water. Well, it took us longer than we had bargained for, so we made camp for the night. Full moon it were. And it were not long before we heard their howls. Chilled us to the bone, they did. Chilled us right to the bone, I tell thee. And then they attacked. Great hairy beasts they were. As like men, but bigger and hairier with claws as like iron and great fanged snouts. Great fanged snouts, I tell thee. And strong they was. Each 'ad the strength of five men. Five men, I tell thee. Only two of us made it back to the boat and escaped from that island with our lives. The rest were seized upon and ripped limb from limb. Limb from limb, I tell thee.

Well, if three of them beasts are loose in the village, no good will come of it, mark my words. Our only hope is to find 'em and lynch 'em by day, for it is during the hours of darkness that they gain their powers.

As to who we should lynch, well I don't like that Rune there misself. Been naught but trouble since 'e came to this village, muttering about minimum wages and working conditions n' all. 'E's up to no good, mark my words. And 'e seems to have some unnatural influence over young Gurthang. Poor lad 'asn't been 'imself since that there union man arrived. 'E used to be such a good lad, but now 'e's naught but trouble.

If we're hunting Wolves, then in my book it's those two we should be looking at first.

[Aiwendil]

I come all the way up here to the farthest coast of the Forostar for a nice quiet retirement and what do I find? Elf-friends and werewolves! And harbourmasters dropping their 'h's! I've half a mind to pack my things and be off in search of some quieter place to settle down, among ordinary folk with proper Adunaic pronunciation.

But I'm afraid that as a tutor and a scholar, I simply can't walk away from an unsolved mystery. I'll stay and do what I can to help you catch these fiends.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Alcarillo was a good person, but not greatly missed as he did helped the Capital exploiding the workers: Capital is dead labor, which, vampire-like, lives only by sucking living labor, and lives the more, the more labor it sucks.

I did tell him that progressive income taxation was the one to prefer.

Allready I am beeing accused by the harbormaster The Saucepan Man, this is obvius a attempt to weaken the union and the workers of this land. We must not let this happen! Know this you will not succed, we will not let the Capitalist expoid us no more!

Wolves he call us, but he has shown no evidence other than those of his own greed, an appetite for profit and power that previous had not been seen in this village. Such an appetite that is only found in the soul of a wolf.

I say lets get rid of The Saucepan Man ! Wolf he is thats for sure, maybe in more than one way.

[Boromir88]

I dun trust nun of ya'lls union folk. Ya'all been workin togedar I surspect.

Poor Alcarillo, but the wulves did 'ave a fine choice on who to kill. I mean...yee was the tax collector. Now, I can save all me 'onest errnings from me crab farm.

Spekkin of the crab farm. Do wolves like, 'ave the power to make animals goes mad? Cuz, I wolked up this mornin' and one of me own crabs wus eatin' anutha one. I 'ad to kill it I did, it wuld of ate 'em all.

My first surspect is Lhuna. Shes says shes sum polite shepard gurl. I wunder 'ow polite she is at night, I do.

[wilwarin538]

(since everyone is talking with the great accents I'll do the same, though it won't be a very good job ;) )

My oh my. A friend of the elves killed by wolves. I would never have thought something like this wouldv 'appened, specially since the most excitin thing this here town has seen was that moose that stayed in my front yard for more then a week. Though I doubt that has anythin to do with the were thins....

Anyway, since many others whove spoke accused someone, I might as well do the same. I'll use my number to choose three suspects, and I'll come up wit the best reasons I can think of.

3. Dancing Spawn of Ungliant - Well she embroiderd' me a case for my fiddle last week. It was red, I hate red, every person that lives within in a mile of the village knows that, plus red is the colour of blood, maybe she 'adn't seen blood for awhile and was missin what it looked like.
5. Formendacil - Disgruntld' aye? Perhaps he's so upset cause he adn't eaten anyone in awhile?
8. Jack - He uses a hammer a lot. Hammers could be used as a weapon I'm sure.

I knows those ain't the best reasons for accusing people, but I'm at a loss. I'm still trying to get over Alcarillo's death and I be expected to be a part o killin someone else. I think I'll just need a littl' time, I'll go play Alcarillo's favorite song for awhile before leavin for time. I'll be back about four hours before the votins closed.

[Gurthang]

Eh, I be alright with gettin' rid of old Master Saucepan. I'd enough of his long-winded tales the first day I worked for 'em. That may not be werewolvery, but it drove me to a union, that's for sure. I'll be listenen to those tales, now, I'll promise ye that, just to see if I catch anythin'.

But there ain't near enough talkin' goin' on. So:

++Formendacil

For being a lazy, good-for-nothing desk 'worker'. Puh! How you can work while sittin' on yer butt behind a desk is beyond my knowledge. I know what work is, done it all me life, and that clerk ain't ever done none.

[mormegil]

I'm not sure sure about having werewolves among us. Alcarillo always was a bit touched in the head and let his imagination run a bit wild. Now there is no doubt that he's dead, as I saw for myself but I think we need to see who would benefit from his death.

Poor Alcarillo, but the wulves did 'ave a fine choice on who to kill. I mean...yee was the tax collector. Now, I can save all me 'onest errnings from me crab farm.

Now I think all business owners had some dislike of this tax man of ours and some had more to benefit than others. I mean really how much profit is there in crabbing and pearl diving? That points to Fordim and Boromir although Jack's business has been slow lately and has to benefit by saving on taxes and on increasing our paranoia so that we buy more weapons and armor.

My sights are set on those three

Jack
Boromir
Fordim

Though Rune is worth watching with his talk of politics at a time of death and tragedy.

[Boromir88]

It 'as been quiet. I 'ate quiet towns. You jus' aint gonna solve a thing if ya'lls jus' sit 'nd stare at eechother.

Well, we now 'ave a population of fithteen peeple. Six peeple 'ave sed sumthin' so far. So, this means someone whos sed sumthin so far is a wulf, by my own simple logic.

Wayne, just says somethin' about Alcarillo an' makes like a tree and leafs.

The Saucepan over 'ere goes off about sum stories that I aint gonna try to unnerstand. I surspect if he's a wulf, he's trying to distract us frum the real task and thats killin' wulf.

Aiwendil, whines 'bout his own life and cries 'bout how awful our spekkin' is.

Rune fires back against the Panman. Did the Panman 'it the wrong nerve Mista Union, sir?

Wilwarin, just kin' of seems normal if ya's all gonna ask me. I mean, she certainly does whut I surspect an innocent to do. So, I guess jus' fur that I shuld be more carefuwl.

And Gurthang votes. Which, usually I dun find votin' early that suspicious, 'specially on the furst day, when nun of us no what these wulves act like, or whats they try to do.

So, based on my simple logic that a wulf has sed sumthin', and frum whos a sed anything...Gurthang, Rune, and Aiwendil are my surspects.

[Boromir88]

I mus' of cross-posted with uh...mormegil. But, uh, he's not worryin' me right now. He seems like wilwarin, I'd surspect an innocent to do this, so I surspect he's innocent right now.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I may be naught but a lithesome pearl diver, but even I'm a bit suspicious of the person who would cast the first vote so early in the day! Why, poor Alcarillo's body's still warm and there's Gurthang champing at the bit for more blood already! And he's after one as hasn't even spoken up yet!!

That having been said, it's true that there's precious little to go by on this first day other than paranoia, so in the end I suspect I'll have to cast my vote in pretty much the same way -- with a lot of guesswork and hope. The likelihood of catching a Wolf this day is only 3 in 14 and I don't like those odds.

So it's like the adage says: him as wants to catch a werewolf needs luck or patience....and so since I don't believe in luck....

So how to catch a werewolf? Well, it's mighty tricky and that's for sure as they have that one great advantage as we don't: they know who's human and who isn't. The thing we have to do (and by we I mean us innocents) is to turn that advantage against them. Y'see, when it comes to voting time, everyone casts his or her vote as an individual -- cause, when it comes down to it, the only person you can really know is innocent is yourself. But wolves, y'see, when they vote, they vote as a group. Even if they spread their votes around, they're still going to be spreading those votes around as a group. So the trick here, y'see, is not to focus on individual choices or actions, but on groups of people who seem to be acting more or less alike, or groups of people who are acting different from one another consistently.

So, as I see it, if you try and catch a werewolf, you're doomed. But if you try to catch a group of three werewolves you might just stand a chance.

The first step, then, is to figure out what the groups are in this here village. The second step, is to decide which group it is that's acting the most wolfish and to vote to lynch from within that group. So it's with that in mind that I shall be watching for these kinds of patterns and groupings. So far, early as it is, there's at least one clearly defined group...

The Accusatory:

Sauce
Rune
Boro
Gurthang

...and possibly two...

The Visibly Non-Committal:

Wilwarin
Aiwendil
Wayne

So this is what's I know right now --

The Accusers are drawing a lot of attention to themselves and making a lot of noise, so they are either clumsy innocents or daring wolves.

The VCNs are shadowing the Accusers without going all the way, so they are either nervous innocents or cagey wolves.

In all fairness I suppose I should probably put myself in a group as well...

Self-Appointed Saviours:

Fordim

The SAS is drawing a lot of attention to himself by suggesting a strategy that will only work if lots of people believe it and go along with him, so he is either a daring innocent or an arrogant wolf.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Ach! Cross-posted I did with mormegil whom I see has joined the ranks of...

The Accusatory:

Sauce
Rune
Boro
Gurthang
mormegil

A note to what I said above -- the wolves, if they are smart, will split themselves up between the groups I identify, but that, y'see, ain't no way to hide, since we can spot folk as join in with groups to try and hide -- when it comes down to it, if they're acting as though they're a part of one group, but voting in a way as aligns them with the thinking of other groups...well...that will catch me lithesome eye...

[Aiwendil]

Well, I'll tell you why I'm visibly non-committal - because when I first came around just about everybody else was doing nothing but standing and staring. Didn't have much to go on, you see. But I've got a bit more to go on now.

Fordim suggests that the wolves will endeavour to diversify their approaches. This makes sense to me, though it seems that it'll be difficult in practice to identify such behavior. But building on this idea, it seems likely to me that on the opening day the wolves will split themselves between early posters and late posters. So I'd guess that at least one wolf has posted so far, but also that at least one has not yet posted.

The people who have spoken up are, in order of their first utterance:

WaynetheGoblin
The Saucepan Man
Aiwendil
Rune
Boromir
Wilwarin
Gurthang
Mormegil
Fordim

And those that have not yet said a word:

Dancing spawn of ungoliant
Formendacil
Holbytlass
Jack
Kath
Lhunardawen

. . . all of which leaves me nowhere in terms of definite suspicions. So I guess I'll remain visibly non-committal for the moment.

One further thought - I've heard there's a seer in this village to whom the Valar speak at whiles. It seems to me that this seer is our best chance to catch those beasts, and I think we'd do well to think long and hard about how best to make use of his or her ability. Two important points occur to me:

1. It's vital that the seer not be discovered by the wolves. Therefore, the seer ought not to hint at his or her abilities.

2. Once the seer is killed, we will all, naturally, closely analyze everything he or she said. As I see it, the seer's priority should be to make this eventual analysis as clear as possible. My advice to the seer, then, is to be very, very careful in every reference to another person - so that after the seer's death, it will be immediately apparent whether the seer in fact knew that person's identity.

[mormegil]

Aiwendil, you seem to suggest to the seer contradictory statements.

1. Don't leave any hints as to who you are.

2. Make sure you spell out who is innocent and guilty so as to know upon your death.

They seem to contradict in that you tell the seer to remain discrete and essentially silent yet by indicating or leaving confirmable evidence as to the guilt or innocence of the individual. Which, to me, seems would give the werewolves some hints.

Now Fordim I find it rather interesting that after only 7 or 8 people have spoken, most only once, you are ready to begin classifying into groups. It seems overly hasty to me.

[Aiwendil]

Allow me to clarify.

I suggest that the Seer speak in such a way that only once his or her identity is revealed will the information being conveyed be apparent. If the Seer, for example, says that he or she strongly suspects someone, or that so and so is almost certainly innocent, then after the Seer's death those remarks will (inevitably, I think) be taken to mean 'I dreamt about so and so and he is a werewolf' or '. . . and he is innocent'. I think that if the Seer is conscious of this throughout the game, then after the Seer's death we should be able to reconstruct most of the Seer's knowledge - would could be quite valuable. But the Seer would be saying nothing that you wouldn't expect any reasonable, paranoid villager to say.

It's just a thought, from someone with little experience in these matters. Does anyone have a better idea for maximizing the Seer's utility? Or the utility of the other Gifteds, for that matter?

[Gurthang]

But, the wolves know who they be. Nobody else does. If the wolves see a villager name just one suspect, and their suspect happens to be a wolf, then the wolves can very well assume that that person is the Seer.

Warning: A very wolfish looking statement coming up.

My advise to the Seer is this: Dream of Saucepan or Fordim. If either are wolves, I suggest coming out and saying so. They are both too influential to let free if they are wolves. They can be great assets, or our greatest enemy.

[Lhunardawen]

Sleep in peace Mister Alcarillo, sir. Rest assured we'll do the best we can to kill those sneaky carnivorous villains - no offense to them - and avenge your demise.

Like has been said already, there's not much that we can do today but guess and read words and guess and hope we catch a werewolf. The first Day, I think, is going to be the hardest for us, but as long as you grown-ups don't kill each other we're gonna do fine. I mean, it's not as if these wolves are causing us enough trouble already.

My first surspect is Lhuna. Shes says shes sum polite shepard gurl. I wunder 'ow polite she is at night, I do.Oh, my politeness knows no time, mister crab farmer. I am always polite, so there, sir.

I can see Mister Gurthang has voted early. If you will trust the mind of a child, I think he is no one to worry about. Perhaps he is merely gauging reactions, but doing so extremely. I could be wrong of course, but I'm only young so don't be harsh on me.

As for the grouping done by Mister Fordim, I do agree with Mister mormegil that it's too early for that. Besides, if we notice these things this early, they're bound to change their behavior to keep us off their trail.

I think it's a very quiet village we have here to Day. Perhaps everyone is still overly shaken by dear Mister Alcarillo's death? Or it could be that time zone thing I once heard the grown-ups in Emerie talk about. I heard it's such a nuisance.

[Gurthang]

I think it's a very quiet village we have here to Day.

That's about the understatement of the year.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Gurthang voted early, but I see that his vote hardly made this village more talkative. Well, we still have time. Nothing overly suspicious in his voting, I think.

I'm not sure if I like the way that Aiwendil is putting words to the Seer's mouth. It would be ideal, if we could spot the Seer's dream targets right after his/her death, but we also want to keep him/her among us as long as possible. Telling them, how to act will just help the wolves. Unless, of course, everyone starts acting like the Seer could act, but that just might get a bit too confusing, don't you think?

Oh, and Wilwa, you say the case was red? Are you sure? I could have sworn that it was green! Now, that is scary.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm very sorry, dear fellow villagers, but it's hard to say "mister" and "lady" before each of your names everytime. Please don't think I'm being impolite or something.

Wayne - the first to speak. Claimed close association with Alcarillo. Expresses desire to slay his murderers. Says nothing else. Either he really has nothing to say, or he was being a dispassionate "helpful" villager. No offense, sir, but you are high on my list.

The Saucepan Man - suspects Rune and Gurthang due to grown-up job stuff. Really, I have no idea why they have to argue about those union things which I don't understand. You grown-ups should really grow up. Oops, I'm sorry. Where was I? Ah, while he does not seem particularly suspicious, he should definitely be watched.

Aiwendil - willing to help the village catch the werewolves. First to comment about the Seer and, it seems to me, is asking him/her to do the impossible. I agree on what he said he/she should do, but it's easier said than done. Not much to worry about for now.

Rune - was quite childish about the whole argument with Mister Pan thing, and so wanted to get rid of him. Should be watched as well.

Boromir88 - was being crabby. Suspects Gurthang, Rune, and Aiwendil among those who "said something." May be a helpful villager in the guise of someone otherwise, but we can't really be sure.

wilwarin - suspected dancing spawn, Jack, and Formendacil just because. Gauging reactions or trying to be helpful or really has nothing to say, I cannot tell.

Gurthang - voted for Formendacil. Nothing to worry about, or trying to deflect attention by attracting it? Then asks the Seer to dream of Fordim and Saucepan. Helpful, or luring the Seer? I think it's a good idea to dream of them first, though.

mormegil - suspects Jack, Fordim, and Boromir, and possible Rune. Doubts existence of werewolves? A werewolf trying to hide himself? It's all too obvious were that so. Seer comments on Aiwendil's suggestion came off a bit scary to me, I don't know why.

Fordim - suspects Gurthang. Believes werewolves work as a group,a nd proceeds to group those who have posted. Calls himself an SAS, which is either a daring innocent or an arrogant wolf. For now I'm inclined towards the former.

dancing spawn - does not suspect Gurthang's early voting. Has doubts on Aiwendil's Seer suggestion.

*scratches head*

That was not much help, wasn't it?

No doomsayer am I, but I believe that in a village as small as this, with three werewolves among us and an agent of Sauron lurking around relatively unnoticed, it would be very difficult for us innocent villagers to survive. So if you would, sirs and ladies, please think carefully before doing anything.

Well, a little girl like me doesn't have all the time in the world to wait for the elders to speak up, if you will excuse me. I still have to do some shepherding of my own brain, not to mention some studying of Archaeology and how it relates to us shepherds. So please don't think any wrong of me for voting less than twelve hours into the Day, but I have no choice.

++WaynetheGoblin

That's probably the best I can come up with for now.

See you soon, everyone! If I'm not yet dead, that is.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Fordim - suspects Gurthang. Believes werewolves work as a group,a nd proceeds to group those who have posted. Calls himself an SAS, which is either a daring innocent or an arrogant wolf. For now I'm inclined towards the former.

Clarification: I don't suspect anyone yet -- I have no basis for actual suspicion right now, since it's all guesswork. I just noted that Gurthy was pretty quick off the mark.

And it's not me as is "grouping" folk, I'm merely trying to look at the patterns that are emerging as folk post. Every community is composed of groups: I'm a-just trying to see which groups exist in this village. Sadly, it will take a couple of days of observation to figure that out (should I live that long....)

[WaynetheGoblin]

Lhuna I cant just say suspicon when I was the only one to post. I see other people do that when they are the first to post why because I do it you vote for me.
++Lhunardawen
I posted one quick post and left cause I was very tired.

[Kath]

Woohoo! Two posts from Wayne in one day!

Ahem, and apologies for my own absence but bumming properly takes more than a bit of effort you know. So is that two votes? One from Gurthang for Fordim and one from Wayne for Lhuna. Isn't it a bit early for voting? I mean, I thought that when Gurthang voted it was because he wouldn't be back, but then he reappears. Surely you vote when you have to leave or is there some new plan I'm unaware of? Oh no we have three! Lhuna for Wayne. And so Wayne's vote is in fact just retaliation against Lhuna. Looking at his last post there seems no other reasoning behind it.

Anyway, so far I can't see anything odd bar these early votes. All this grouping into suspects and innocents seems a little hasty as well since we haven't heard from all of the villagers yet. Still, in the spirit of the thing, I'm not sure about Lhuna. As yet there seems no real reasoning behind that, just her being too polite I should think!

[Holbytlass]

My apologies for not showing up till now, I was cutting and shipping me finest cuts of beef, pork and lamb for poor Alcarillo's family. At least they need not worry about how to feed the young'uns as they make plans this week. Dearly departed.

This is indeed terrible news! I thought we were far from the King's thoughts and plans, we must help the Elendili by doing our best to get rid of these vicious creatures.

Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – pearl diver
Lhunardawen – shepherd girl
Jack – furrier/blacksmith
Holbytlass – butcher

With so little to go on today, I suppose we should take a look at this group, if they be human and kill animals by day who's to say they don't turn animal and kill humans by night? Not a very good plan, seeing as I'm on it too, so no doubt there would be other innocents on this list as well, got to start somewhere....

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

++Lhunardawen That seems very Wayneish, but I still don't get his logic.

Gurthang has acted quite wolfishly, which he admits himself. Well, I didn't find his early vote so suspicious if it really was intended to encourage discussion, as he said, but this Seer thing surprises me. What are you up to telling the Seer to reveal him/herself after just one day, eh?

I'm not sure sure about having werewolves among us. Alcarillo always was a bit touched in the head and let his imagination run a bit wild.Ah, denial, it's the first step... Otherwise morm's posts seem sound.

Hmm, I'm really not getting much out of the posts thus far. I don't know, if I can get online again toDay (I'll try, though), so I must vote now...

++Aiwendil

... because of his Seer talk, which I found somehow unsettling. Not the best reason, I know, but it's been so silent.

Isn't it a bit early for voting?On Lhuna's time zone, it's already late. Otherwise I think that early votes are cast because it should be a way to make people talk. (My reason can be found in the admin thread.) I agree, though, that something's not sitting right with our Ms. Polite.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Though Rune is worth watching with his talk of politics at a time of death and tragedy.

Don't get me wrong, I am not happy about the death, but things like death must never get in the way of the greater struggle (I am an union leader scandinavian style, not mobster)

The Accusers are drawing a lot of attention to themselves and making a lot of noise, so they are either clumsy innocents or daring wolves.

I cannot see anything wrong in accusaitions the first day, otherwise we are never getting the debate startet. . . Imagine if everybody refused to accusate each other. We would be just as lost as we where when the whole thing startet. I can however see the point in not just throwing accusations around now when the debate has startet to take form.


Rune - was quite childish about the whole argument with Mister Pan thing, and so wanted to get rid of him. Should be watched as well.

Does it really matter?

I could have starte by looking at peoples names/professions and made accusations from that point of view.
ex. Lhuna must be an wolf as her name has a striking resemblance to Luna. . .

As I see it my argumentaition was just as good as anything we have seen yet or at least it has just as good a chance of beeing correct.

I don't know what to make of the whole thing yet, I will return in an hour or two with a more interesting post.

[Gurthang]

That seems very Wayneish, but I still don't get his logic.

Which is what would make him such a great cobbler or wolf. Nobody can understand what Wayne is thinking, and so he confuses the heck out of people!

As for me and my early vote, well, you'll see my possible reasons later. Now is not the time.

Note: I say 'possible' reasons because there is always the very likely chance that no one will believe what I say. So, I will just post all the different possibilities that seem logical to me.

[The Saucepan Man]

Goodness gracious me! All this yammerin’ and accusin’ reminds me of the time we was sailing the Western Oceans and we found that someone had been helping theirselves to the rum supply. Just helping theirselves, I tell thee. Well, we weren’t too happy, as you can imagine. On a voyage like that, everything has to be strictly rationed, you see, or it runs out, don’t it? Well, we got to discussing it and all kinds of accusations and the like were flying round. But there weren’t no way of being sure who done it, like. All them accusation were simply based on grudges and rivalries. Grudges and rivalries, y’see?

Well, it seems as if we are in much the same boat now. There bain’t no way of knowing for sure who might be a Wolf and who might be innocent. There’s very little to go on see, and so we resort to personal grudges or wild imaginings. My own accusation of that there Rune was based on the fact that I dislike the fellow. I freely admit it. Although I am taken aback that he should think me one of these foul fiends. And it does seem to me that he is more concerned with ‘is outdated and discredited philosophies than on finding a Wolf. I shall be keeping my eye on him, and no mistake.

Now we never found out who had been pilfering that there rum. There was naught as came to light to point to anyone as being guilty, y’see? And that’s where I reckon our current situation is different. For, in time, there will be evidence of Wolvish behaviour there in the Wolves’ words. In their words, I tell thee, sure as the flowing of the tide.

So, what have we got so far?

Gurthang’s early vote worries me. I knew the young lad were impetuous, like, but ‘e worries me in voting for one who has not spoken yet at a time when there really was naught to go on. Mayhaps it would be foolish for a Wolf to draw such attention to ‘eself so early on. Or mayhaps ‘e reckoned that’s how people would see it. Mayhaps ‘e thought that we’d all dismiss it as too obviously suspicious and therefore unlikely behaviour for a Wolf. He hasn’t really explained why he voted so early. ‘Tis possible to stir up conversation without actually voting y’know, me lad. And, while I’m more than happy for the Seer to dream of me, I don’t like ‘is suggestion that the Seer reveal hisself so early on. All in all, he’s certainly one who concerns me.

Our scholar, Master Aiwendil, has caused quite a stir with his comments. But, for all ‘is fancy words, ‘e makes sense to me. I ‘appen to think ‘e’s right that a Wolf was amongst those who spoke early (although it bain’t me, thee can rest assured of that). And ‘is suggestions for the Seer were sensible enough, even if difficult to put into action successfully. I certainly don’t think ‘e was trying to flush out the Seer, as has been suggested. No, I am prepared to consider him simply as an innocent who is trying to be helpful – for now at least.

And then we come to Master Hedgthistle. Fine words and a seemingly fine plan from our Pearl Diver. But is it really, when we think on’t? Seems to me all ‘e’s really sayin’ is that Wolves might act one way or they might act another and that not all of them are likely to act the same way. Which is much like saying the sun’s going to set tonight and rise again tomorrow. He ain’t telling us anything we don’t know already, or can’t work out for usselves, although he uses lots of fine words in doin' it. Is ‘e trying to look helpful, and therefore innocent, without actually being helpful (or innocent) at all? Self-Appointed Saviour? More like Self-Appointed-Stater of the Bleedin’ Obvious. And while ‘e accepts that it may take some time for his plan to help us spot the Wolves, that didn’t stop ‘im making comments about people’s behaviour based on naught but a handful of contributions. He has already labelled some of us “Accusers” and therefore “either clumsy innocents or daring wolves”. Well, I don’t know how you can tell that from just a few words, Master H, but I can assure you that I am neither clumsy nor a Wolf. If I were a suspicious fellow, I might think that you were trying to make subtle insinuations about those you have grouped without appearing to be too accusatory.

Mistress Lhunadarwen ‘as voted early, which might be regarded as suspicious, but I tend to believe ‘er claim that she ‘ad no choice. Tricksy things, these time zones. I’m more suspicious of our good Doctor, WaynetheGoblin, for his reaction vote against her – without giving any reason, other than (I presume) the fact that she voted for him.

Much the same goes for dancing spawn. I’m not ‘appy ‘bout her vote for Aiwendil, as I reckon there are far more suspicious characters around as matters stand. But I believe ‘er when she says she won’t be around to vote later.

As for the others, well there’s not much to go on really, as yet, and so naught to raise my suspicions unduly.

[Folwren]

Woah. Holbytlass. . .careful. I'm not a 'furrier'. I don't kill animals during the day. My job is to protect the horses from getting lame, and to create beautiful things out of iron and steel.

As for my tardiness in beginning to talk, I really apologize. . .that's how it will be daily, I'm afraid. Early morning is the best time to work, and the best time to think.

But I have thought and pondered the words said, and come to very little revelation of any sort. The wolves left us nothing to follow in their murder of Alcarillo. His death is bitter and unlooked for.

I think. . .I think that it would be foolish to fight over the politicial arguments at such time, Saucepan and Rune. Lives, and not Money, are on the line. Be that as it may, it would be equally foolish for we villagers who are not in the middle of such arguments to leap on people like Saucepan Man for lashing out at his adversaries in this topic of Union and whatnot.

You must understand, all this talk that is flying around can really reveal very little until another day has passed. No one knows anything, except the Wolves, and maybe the Seer (but even he will only know of one person). Forms of likes and dislikes shouldn't necessarily be made so soon, if one can help it, and accusations should be carefully thought out and wrought up. Speaking as a blacksmith and metal worker, one can not expect to change the form of iron when it is not fully heated. All you'll manage to do is get a shower of sparks into your face and hardly a dent in your metal, regardless of the strength of your hammer stroke.

-- Jack

[Kath]

Righty ho back again. So it was Lhuna I wasn't sure of earlier. Now I'm not too keen on Folwren but for that I have a little more reasoning, well not much, just this sentence:

I don't kill animals during the day.
So you kill them during the night? Is what came into my mind as I said it. Technically humans are animals so it sort of works.

Sauce and Fordim are talking far too much for my liking. Why can't they make nice short posts that don't take forever to read! Ah well, they are full of information, though whether it be useful or space filling rubbish is yet to be determined.

And I see we have another vote, making that:
Formendacil (Gurthang)
Lhuna (Wayne)
Wayne (Lhuna)
Aiwendil (spawn)

I don't really suspect anyone at the moment. Folwren I picked up on but it could well be nothing of course.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Sauce and Fordim are talking far too much for my liking. Why can't they make nice short posts that don't take forever to read!

Hear Hear!!

But I do need to say three quick things:

1) Contrary to what Kath has said, Gurthang has not voted to lynch me...not this Day, leastaways.

2) I don't kill the oysters, I sings to them for a bit and when they open their shells to applaud I swipes the pearls from out of the inside.

3) I have pressing business away from this here place which will make taking part in this discussion impossible after 2:00 pm EST (7:00 GMT) so's I will have to cast my vote early....sadly, as it looks as though there's to be a lot of late discussion which is sure to be interesting.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I really dont have that much to say, no one really stands out as beeing very suspecios. The people I am currently considering voting for is(this can change quickly because of the lack of evidence):

Wayne for his strange vote for Lhuna and because, he is imposibel to get a read on. As others has statet very dangerous to have around. . .

Aiwendil because of the strange seer talk, allthough he did a pretty good job explaining what he meant afterwards.

Gurthang because of his wolfish statement, but I dont think I will be voting for him today.

The Saucepan Man I just dislike ;)

[Aiwendil]

Well, it seems that my suggestions for the Seer have caused a bit of an uproar. I was merely speaking my mind. Of course, it's up to the Seer now and I'll leave it at that. Still, it's interesting to look at the reactions that my suggestion received:

Mormegil: Thinks my idea is contradictory.
Gurthang: Thinks my idea will expose the Seer. Proposes that the Seer dream of Fordim or the SPM.
Dancing Spawn: Says I'm putting words in the Seer's mouth and that this will help the Wolves. Votes against me.
Lhunardawen: Says that I'm asking the Seer to do the impossible.
Saucepan Man: Says that my idea is sensible but difficult to put into action. Does not think it's a trick.

Now I'm a bit dismayed that no one else seems to want to get organized, and I'm a bit wary of anyone who claims that a plan for doing so is a Wolvish trick. If my suggestion were such a trick, then it would be a very poor one indeed! After all, my first piece of advice was:

1. It's vital that the seer not be discovered by the wolves. Therefore, the seer ought not to hint at his or her abilities.

My initial suspicion, then, falls upon Gurthang and Dancing Spawn. This suspicion is strengthened by the fact that Dancing Spawn voted for me on (what seems to me to be) rather shaky logical ground, and Gurthang voted absurdly early, for someone that had not (and still has not) said a word.

[Folwren]

So you kill them during the night? Is what came into my mind as I said it. Technically humans are animals so it sort of works.

*sigh* No. I was answering Holbytlass's statement:

With so little to go on today, I suppose we should take a look at this group, if they be human and kill animals by day who's to say they don't turn animal and kill humans by night?

And all I had to say to deflect that argument, I thought, was say that I didn't kill animals by day (therefore it would follow that I didn't kill humans by night). Guess I was wrong on that bit of logic. No. I don't kill anything at night. One would think that after spending all day at the anvil or shoeing horses (that sometime have the audacity to lean entirely on me while trying to fit the shoe), it'd be pretty obvious that all I did was sleep at night.

-- Jack

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post: Add to my list of reactions:

Rune: Is considering voting for me due to 'strange seer talk', but says that I did a pretty good job of clarifying my idea afterwards.

His comment doesn't seem particularly suspicious to me, at the moment.

[Formendacil]

But there ain't near enough talkin' goin' on. So:

++Formendacil

You are most wise to vote thus, Master Gurthang, for I am a wolf.

So is Fordhim. So is SPM. And tonight we will lynch the seer, Lhuna, and the ranger, Rune, will be helpless to do anything.

Believe me? I hope not, but if you're as paranoid and overanalytical as most villagers tend to be in days of crisis like this, then you just might....

Honestly, there is no way of knowing who or what the wolves are in this village, and I'm not even going to bother presenting theories of guilt or innocence. I rather think that Gurthang's early vote for me is suspicious, but that's just because he picked me. If he had picked, Wilwa, say, then I wouldn't be bothered in the slightest.

You want a random vote?

Then I'll make it:

++Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant, just because we know that Ungoliant is/was evil.

[Folwren]

Cross posted with a few people. . .

Rune, don't vote for someone just because of personal dislikes. Saucepan Man is an important person here. He thinks more clearly than a few of us. Since we have to vote somebody off today, and since there are really no good reasons to vote anyone off, I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category. True, some of us might suspect them, but at this point in the game, it would be folly indeed to kill any one of these.

In order for the villagers to win, we need the smart people who are talkative, at least some. Of course. . .if they do end up being wolves, their brains mean that they'll be dangerous. But, at this point in the game, there's little or no reason to vote them off because there is no proof.

-- Jack

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I was not serious, it was just a comment on our earlyer political discution. . .
that's why i used the ;)

Sorry about the miss understanding


About Aiwendil the reason he is on my list is that there is practical nothing to go by. Please dont think to much of my list suspects, it is based on allmost nothing.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

As I've already said, I must leave now and get on with the job of living (those pearls aren't going to come out of the oysters on their own) so much as it pains me, I will have to cast my vote now even though I desperately desire to see more from everyone before voting.

As I've also said, there's really no grounds for any real suspicion a this point, although Aiwendil with his Seer suggestion has raised some interesting points and made some interesting observations. Of all the summations thus far, his -- I think -- is the most useful:


Mormegil: Thinks my idea is contradictory.
Gurthang: Thinks my idea will expose the Seer. Proposes that the Seer dream of Fordim or the SPM.
Dancing Spawn: Says I'm putting words in the Seer's mouth and that this will help the Wolves. Votes against me.
Lhunardawen: Says that I'm asking the Seer to do the impossible.
Saucepan Man: Says that my idea is sensible but difficult to put into action. Does not think it's a trick.


He goes on, based on this analysis, to name Gurthang and Dancing Spawn as his prime suspects. Interestingly, both of them have expressed suspicion of me....

So, like I say, I have no real way of knowing if either of them are wolves. In fact, I am only 3/14 ths sure that one of them is a wolf, but as I have to vote now, and as Aiwendil has made the most sense so far, I will have to vote for one of them.

Gurthang is far too obvious a choice: if he is a wolf, he's an incredibly silly one, and I haven't seen enough of Gurthy yet to determine if he is that silly....so, that leaves

++DANCING SPAWN OF UNGOLIANT

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Cross posted with Rune, Folly, and Formy .

[Folwren]

'Jack', dear. Folly's very feminine. Jack, for now. It's cute, Folly is, but Jack . . . well. . .you know.

-- Jack

[mormegil]

I have remained relatively quiet until now because I wanted to observe some behavior and I think it is time to come forward with my thoughts. While I found Aiwendil's seer statement moderately contradictory, I found it fairly innocent and I made my comments about Aiwendil's guilt as fairly innocuous. Meaning I really didn't suspect him but wanted some point to discuss and I think it has been fruitful so far. Aiwendil does a good job at outlining some of his suspects in relation to this list. I would be more inclined to vote for Gurthang over Spawn; the reason being is that Spawn would be a bit more shrewd if she were a wolf than she was, this is not a proclamation of her innocence but currently I'm not overly concerned with her.

Gurthang however, I believe, has the chutzpah to attempt such a bluff at wolvery. Nearly everything he has done or said implicates his guilt and he is hoping that we will write it off as being too obviously wolfish. I for one will not at this stage and therefore

++Gurthang

[The Saucepan Man]

I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category.Well thank you, young Jack. I appreciate the compliment 'n all, but you might as well just be done with it and hang a sign on our backs saying "Wolves, please kill us!". ;)

Now I'm not too keen on Folwren but for that I have a little more reasoning, well not much, just this sentence:

Quote:
I don't kill animals during the day.

So you kill them during the night? Is what came into my mind as I said it. Technically humans are animals so it sort of works.Now that seems a bit spurious to me, young lass. What are you suggesting that it implies? A Wolvish hint? Well it seems to me that there bain't no chance of Wolves dropping hints intentionally. So mayhaps you're suggesting it was a slip? Well, if so, it's a slip just as likely to be made by an innocent - moreso given that Wolves are likely to be more careful 'bout what they say. Seizing 'pon such a phrase looks suspicious in itself to me, so my eye is now on you too.

My main suspicions still lie with Master Hedgethistle and young Gurthang, though. The former because he set out a plan which really didn't look much of a plan to me, but more of a statement of the obvious. And at the same time, he looked to be implying sommet nasty 'bout those who made early (mostly random) accusations - mayhaps a way of deflecting suspicion from hisself. Other than that, he has given little away concerning his own thoughts, but instead piggy-backed on Aiwendil's reasoning to cast his vote. Now, while I myself see much sense in what our Scholar has said, I would have expected a little more original thought from someone so highly regarded as Master H.

As for Gurthang, like mormegil, I still see it as possible that he voted early as a means of deflecting suspicion, thinking that people would see it as too dangerous a game for a Wolf to play. The lad hints at this being part of some grand plan. Well, I shall await to see what he has to offer.

With all that's been going on, there's not much business down at the harbour, so I shall bide my time and vote nearer to the deadline.

[Gurthang]

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Subject: Gurthang
Analysis: Early vote.
Approximate possible reasons: 6

1. Gurthang is the Seer and dreamed of a wolf.
Gurthang dreamed of a wolf last night. Rather than coming out right away and saying that he was the Seer, he decided to make a more direct approach. This way, the wolves might not realize he’s the Seer, but rather a bumbling innocent. Later, when the Seer dies, the villagers will be able to come back and see that Gurthang knew Formendacil to be a wolf.
2. Gurthang is the Seer and did not dream of a wolf.
Gurthang is trying to draw attention to himself because it is unexpected of Seers. Seers tend to stay more quite and less accusing. By trying to be the center of attention, he is hoping that the wolves will look elsewhere for the Seer.
3. Gurthang is a wolf.
Gurthang is a wolf attempting to hide out in the open, thinking that others would assume a wolf to be smarter than to draw so much attention to himself.
4. Gurthang is an innocent protecting the Seer.
By accusing one person, Gurthang is hoping to nail a wolf. Thus, the wolves will think he is the Seer. They kill him during the night. This saves the Seer, and proves the one Gurthang accused to be a wolf.
5. Gurthang is an innocent trying to spark conversation.
The town was quiet, so Gurthang was trying to flare up some conversation.
6. Gurthang is the cobbler.
Gurthang is simply trying to confuse everyone.

Any additions or corrections are welcome.

[Kath]

++Fordim Hedgethistle

Why? Because I have no real suspicions today. My only one even loosely based on reasoning was Folwren and she gave a very ratty reply to that though it did make sense.

Fordim on the other hand has just told us that he is a wolf. I have no idea whether he's telling truth or playing some kind of bluff or what, but since we don't know who anyone is at the moment, we might as well lynch someone who has 'admitted' to being a wolf.

[Boromir88]

Well, I 'ave quite a bit more time before I go back to tendin' my crabs.
Now I think all business owners had some dislike of this tax man of ours and some had more to benefit than others. I mean really how much profit is there in crabbing and pearl diving? That points to Fordim and Boromir although Jack's business has been slow lately and has to benefit by saving on taxes and on increasing our paranoia so that we buy more weapons and armor.~mormegil
I aint gonna try to deny that I's lost my house, cus I culdn't affourd it anymore wid all the taxes. Now, I live on sum cruddy ol' boat on the shore. But, I aint never 'ate Alcarillo, or any tax collectors. The ways I've always seen it wus, every mans gotta right to make 'is own livin'. And it aint Alcarillo's fault that 'es tryin' to make a livin' by takin' money an' workin' for the King. The ways it always been is the rich neva 'ave to pay money, it's always the brokin' backs of the pour that drive empires. I guess, I'm a sayin' I'm proud to be a 'ard workin' man that keeps the wheels a runnin' so to say. But, evry mans gotta make a livin'. And I aint gonna punish no man tryin' to make an 'onest livin'.

Everyone is surspecting Gurthang or Spawn. And they may very well be wulves. But, sumthin' doesn't sit right in me stomach with Holbytlass. It wus jus' this comment:
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – pearl diver
Lhunardawen – shepherd girl
Jack – furrier/blacksmith
Holbytlass – butcher

With so little to go on today, I suppose we should take a look at this group, if they be human and kill animals by day who's to say they don't turn animal and kill humans by night? Not a very good plan, seeing as I'm on it too, so no doubt there would be other innocents on this list as well, got to start somewhere....
We aint executin' animal killers mi lady. We's a tryin' to execute wulfs. Though, I suppose its likely sumone on that list is a wulf. It jus' doesn't suit with me own logic that you shuld kill sumone based on their professin. We're all tryin' to make a livin'. Without me crabs I'd be on da street sittin' next to Kath. You don't 'ang a man cus you dun like his profession.

Fur that, Holbytlass an' I suppose Gurthang ar' me top two surspects at this point. And I aint gunna foget Rune for 'is snappy comments earlier, but I suppose there's much 'ore suspisius stuff fur me to look at.

Like the Panman, I will wait an' 'old my vote 'til latuh.

[Gurthang]

Gurthang however, I believe, has the chutzpah to attempt such a bluff at wolvery. Nearly everything he has done or said implicates his guilt and he is hoping that we will write it off as being too obviously wolfish. I for one will not at this stage and therefore

++Gurthang

Why thank ye, mormegil! I be honored to find myself so highly thought of, aside from how wretched your claim makes me appear.


From me own analysis above, I will tell ye all that the truth be number 4 and number 5. But, me saying so will not make no difference to those who already think guilty of me. In fact, I'm sure mormegil and Saucepan will use it against me. I don't be saying that's bad though, I'd be doing the same in their shoes.

My vote be already wasted, but I'm keeping an eye on Kath, although that's mostly from what other people have said of her posts. And now her vote, in which I find the reasons and the action not lining up.

I'll also throw in that Aiwendil is being watched by me. Her statement that she'll suspect any who don't support some group 'plan' has me worried. Plans can be froth with downfall, if a leader is chosen who be a wolf. Now, she's not suggested a leader, but I'm still keeping a close watch.

Votes so far:

Gurthang (Formedacil-1)
Lhunardawen (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1)
Wayne (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1)
dancing spawn (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1)
Formendacil (Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, dancing spawn-1)
Fordim Hedgethistle(dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1)
mormegil(dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, Gurthang-1)
Kath (dancing spawn-2, Formendacil-1, Wayne-1, Lhuna-1, Aiwendil-1, Gurthang-1, Fordim-1)



Oh, Kath, dear, it twas Formedacil that claimed himself to be a wolf.

[Aiwendil]

I'll also throw in that Aiwendil is being watched by me. Her statement that she'll suspect any who don't support some group 'plan' has me worried. Plans can be froth with downfall, if a leader is chosen who be a wolf. Now, she's not suggested a leader, but I'm still keeping a close watch.


That's "he", for future reference

And let me emphasize that I do not suspect "any who don't support some group 'plan'". Rather, I suspect those that seemed to suggest that my proposal was a trick. As I said before, if it were a Wolvish trick, it would be a very poor one indeed.

[Kath]

Oh fribble! Many apologies Fordim! That's twice I've got your names mixed up now! Shoot I can't go back and change it either can I? I'm so sorry. I must find a way to separate your names in my head.

1) Contrary to what Kath has said, Gurthang has not voted to lynch me...not this Day, leastaways.
No indeed you are correct he has not, that was for Formendacil. If I'm still alive tomorrow after these idiotic mistakes rest assured that I will find a new name for one of you and so avoid doing so for a third time.

Ah but wait! Formendacil did say that Fordim too was a wolf, so if I'm going by the same logic that I'll vote for someone who admits it then it follows through still. Ok, yes, I know that doesn't really work but hey, who knows what's going on here! And I would like my vote to count for something.

[Folwren]

Originally observed by SpM:
Well thank you, young Jack. I appreciate the compliment 'n all, but you might as well just be done with it and hang a sign on our backs saying "Wolves, please kill us!". ;)

Herm. . .sorry ol' chap. I see your point, and I apologize greatly. But, you know, if there are any smart wolves in the pack, then they wouldn't have needed me to tell them anyway. Be that as it may, I am sorry. You'll believe me, I hope.

Concerning some of the few accusations flying around. . .

I doubt Wayne's the Cobbler. Surely, he could be, but it's pretty much impossible to tell from this point. People think he's suspiciously silent and not giving any reasons for his votes and whatever else you'll bring against him. Well, right now, I would probably say that his silence isn't something that shows whether he's innocent or not innocent, because that's just how he is. He's a quiet little fellow, if you haven't noticed. Indisposed towards talking. You won't find out if he's a wolf by how many words he says. . .

Holbytlass on the other hand. . .Boromir, I'd have to agree with what you said. Her bringing our professions up and throwing them back into our faces (and getting mine mixed up, no less) is a rather far out idea, but one that may get people thinking on the wrong and totally random track. Hence, it is indeed a possibility that she is the Cobbler. But, you must all understand, this is only speculation. I can't, as everyone else can't, prove my point. It's just something to consider a while.

Naught else to say at the time being. . .

-- Jack

[Boromir88]

I crossed widda couple of peeple. Now, I'm gonna go back to my simple, plain, logic as in when I furst was spekkin' this mornin'.

Again, with fifthten peeple, an' three wolfes, I think its logical fur me to say that sumone who's gotten a vote so far is a wulf. So 'eres whos gotten a vote so far...

Spawn (2)
Formendacil
Wayne
Lhuna
Aiwendil
Gurthang
Fordim

If you wis' to follow my suggestiun, I say this is a good enuff list for Day 1, 'nd we shuldnt put anymore opshuns up fur a lynchin'. Though this is jus' my own logic, ya'll may vote 'ow yall please.

Again, goin' back to logic, it's likely one of dese peeple is a wulf, nd' we shuld try to figger out which one.

Fur me own personal opiniun Wayne, isnt a wulf. I think 'es jus' distraut 'ver the loss of 'is close frien'. I 'ope he becums 'ore 'elp in the future, or purhaps I may begin surspectin' 'es a wulf.

Aiwendil, besides bein' a snobby fonetican (phonetician) I see nuttin' in 'im to think 'es a wulf, yet.

So to me, this leafs...
Spawn
Formendacil
Lhuna
Gurthang
Fordim

Gurthang I guess you can call me a big softy, but I think 'es tellin' us the truth an' I dun think 'es a wolf. I knows earlier I surspects 'im, but it was in the middle of cross-postin' wid 'im too, so I take back my suspishuns. I think 'es an 'onest man, tellin' us 'is ideas and wut 'es doin'. But, thats jus' me own opinion.

Fordim, 'es a lot smarter dan me, so I just aint gonna vote fur 'im yet. I think 'e can be a good benfit fur the village if 'es not a wulf. I aint comtable votin' out sumone 'ho can 'elp us.

I aint gotta reddin' on Formendacil yet. 'e aint dunnalotta spekkin' yet, but I think thats jus' the way 'e typically is. I dun surspect 'im yet.

So this leafs Spawn an' Lhuna. Both voted rathuh early if ya ask me. Though Gurthang voted first, I believe 'im and typically I dun surspect sumone to vote early. But, I think we do 'ave an early votin' wulf amongst us, 'nd I think either Spawn or Lhuna wus tryin' to tag 'long with Gurthang, 'opin too to cast off suspishun. Though its 'ard for me to vote fur one of them, cus they a have to vote earlier, cus of the timezones.

I dun gotta bad fellin' about Holbytlass, but based on me logic that it's probable dat one of the peeple voted fur so far is a wulf, I dun feel comtable addin' anuther name to the lis'. But, I still gotta a while befur I 'ave to decide. Thats' just me own thoughts on the canidites up fur lynchin' so far.

[Folwren]

Cross posted with Gurthang, Kath, Aiwendil, and now Boromir 88. . .

[Holbytlass]

I seem to have touched a couple of nerves for my "first day frivolous" list. Boromir laims hat I want to kill someone based on their professions, I said "to take a look" at the group.

Interesting reactions thus far, Fordim claims to sing his way into the oysters. Seeing as I've never been down with him, I'll take his word for now.
Jack says he's not a furrier, in my defense, I got it from Alcarillo's tax list (post2). If he isn't one, my apologies.

But the two who are bent out of shape of an obvious conversation starter are Boromir and especially Jack.

[Holbytlass]

I can see where each person voted for has compelling suspicions against them, but I can also see where each may be seen as innocent. Right now, I'm hesitant to go along with anyone else but today must vote my gut...

++Jack

he seems too jumpy for a random "look-see" list.

[Folwren]

To Holbytlass's vote, I've one thing to say with a merry twinkle in my eye:

"Ha!"

-- Jack

[wilwarin538]

I see we got ourselves some votes. Interesting. 'Ere be a list of all playrs and what I be thinkin of em at this time. I will also rate them on a scale of 1 to 10. 1 being most definetly innocent and 10 being most definetly guilty.

Aiwendil – interestin idea about the Seer, kinda strange but still intrestin. 7
Boromir88 – He's spoke quite a bit. Seems rather helpful. 8
Dancing spawn of ungoliant - Has gotten de mos votes thus far. Not sure bouts her. 5
Fordim Hedgethistle – Also talks quiet a bit, I'm a thinkin he's thrustworthy. 8
Formendacil – E's posted a few times I believe. Though somethin bout him is strange. Like his last post for 'xample, very strange. 4
Gurthang – Seems one of da most suspicious like to me. A bit defensive, votes early. My vote may possibly be for him. 3
Holbytlass – Made a list of random suspects, seemed to have good enough reasons for choosin dem. But since she put herself on da list I think its suspicious. Peraps she put herself der to make herself look less suspicious. Would a wolf really draw attention to herself like dat? Exactly, peraps thats what she wanted us to be a thinkin. 4
Jack – Talks a bit, makes 'imself sound smart, then advises us not to vote for smart people. Tryin to save 'imself perhaps? Vote possibly for 'im. 3
Kath – Confuses Fordim and Formen, I can relate. I don see much suspicious bout er. 8
Lhunardawen – I also don see anythig suspicius bout er. 8
Mormegil - Not much to go on. 5
Rune Son of Bjarne – Surspects some peeple wit not much to go on, as e puts it. His ratin is more of a gut feelin. 4
The Saucepan Man - Elpful, stroies are a bit annoyin but I'm a thinkin 'im innocent. 8
WaynetheGoblin – Same ol Wayne. Never clarifying anytin. But I don't think him guilty. 6

So dos are me thoughts. I'll be back in anoder hour or so. Peraps I'll vote then.

crossposted wit Jack

[Folwren]

I'm about to leave and will not be able to post again for the remainder of today.

I guess I should vote. . .but I don't exactly want to. I'm inclined to vote for Formendacil. . .rarely do innocent villagers say they're wolves.

On the other hand, I'm hesitant to vote for Formendacil because that puts he and Spawn up to the same amount of votes, which, if no one else adds onto those votes, causes a double lynching, a thing which I think is not good. There is only an hour and a half left to vote. . .half of us have already done so. The other half may not be able to make up their minds.

I'll vote for ++Formendacil. I can not be accountable for Spawn's death if she dies, I was not the one to vote for her. But Formendacil seems questionable, if only for his claim of being a wolf.

Understand. . .I don't know for certain. It's a guess in the blind dark.

-- Jack

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The last hour's posting have not helped me decide who to vote for. I will vote for Wayne, because of his odd vote and the fact that it will be very difficult to decide if he is a wolf or not.

++Waynethegoblin

There is an hour left, I guess that is time enough not to get a dubble lynch

[wilwarin538]

So the votes are:

Spawn (2)
Formendacil (2)
Wayne (2)
Lhuna
Aiwendil
Gurthang
Fordim
Jack

Out of the three with 2 votes Formendacil was the one who had more of my suspicion. I would like to vote for Jack but that would be rather piontless and I don't want to be accused later of keeping the double lynch. So I think the best choice would be:

++Formendacil

I hope that wasn't a bad choice. :confused:

[mormegil]

Interesting that so many people think Formendacil is guilty. His statement that he's wolf seemed more sarcastic rhetoric to me and he was merely trying to make a point that Gurthang was hasty and we are all being a bit paranoid here. But that's just my take on it.

[Aiwendil]

Three votes against Formendacil - that seems a bit strange to me, considering he's posted but once so far and didn't say anything particularly suspicious, in my view. Sure, he joked about being a wolf. But is this sufficient evidence to lynch him?

Of the likely candidates, I'm much more inclined to vote for Dancing Spawn, for reasons mentioned earlier. But I don't want to cause a double lynch. I'll wait a little bit more . . .

[Boromir88]

So far we 'ave 12 people whos voted. I think it's myseln, Panman, an' Aiwendil lef' to vote.

I relly 'ave no idear who to go for. I s'pose I should go for Formendacil; 'e did say he wus a wulf. I relly dun see why though a wulf wuld be so stupid in the beginnin'. And shure, I aint afeared to call it stupid, cus it is stupid, if 'es a wolf. But, I dun think a wolf wuld be stupid 'nuff to say 'es a wulf. I relly 'ave no idear whut Formendacil is plannin' wit' tis wulf talk.

So, now my thinkin' is to tie it back up (meanin' either Spawn or Wayne). And wit' Panman pledging 'ed be back to vote, I fell safe in doin' this. I dun no if Aiwendil will be back, but Panman sed 'e wuld an' if not that only makes 'im look bad in me 'onest eyes.

I still see relly not a stron' resson to believe Wayne's a wulf. 'e may be the Cobbler, which wuld be a good victry fur us villagers on day one. But, still we'd like furst to see if we can catch a wolf.

So, this leaves Spawn, who I think of the three I've mentioned is the most likely to be a wolf. (Though I aint sayin' she is, I'm goin' wit' my own gut feelin'. That's all a simple villagers got wit' 'im, is 'is gut). An' I s'pose since Spawn is 'aving technical difficulties, and knowin' she aint gonna be 'ere I fin' it 'ard to vote for sumone 'ho I knew wusnt gonna be 'ere. But, I guess if I thinks shes a wulf, than I shuld vote fur her...right?

Or, I culd vote for anuthuh person to bring d'em to two votes and see what Panman and Aiwendil know wut to do? Jus' for Panman and Aiwendil, unless sumthin dramatically changes I'll prolly vote for Spawn, or sumone else wit' one vote.

I always 'ate votin' late, cus you make a wrong choice, an' peeple start lookin' at ya. But I's a stuck wit' da rest of yall, an' I only got my gut to go off of.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I think that mormegil is right: it seems a bit, well, harsh to punish Formy for what was more than likely to be a bit of ill-advised rhetoric than a bold admission... The point he was making is a good one, although he made it in a bit of a ham-fisted way. Anyone can be a wolf for all we know right now....

..but if he gets lynched I guess we'll find out for sure what he meant by that.

This here post, though, is really a plea for those remaining voters to do their best to avoid a double-lynching: the only folk as will be pleased with that will be the wolves as the odds of getting even one wolf even with two killings is still only 2 in 15.

Back to polishing those pearls...and keeping an eye on these here goings-on.

EDIT: Please see the "discussion" thread for my explanation of my presence here when I said I wouldn't be back today.

[Boromir88]

Well, I know Aiwendil's 'ere now. An' wit' us 'ere, and my belly gettin' 'ungry (I got stuff'd crabs planned fur tonight). I dun wanna big mix up at the an' with all of us bein' 'ere to vote. So, I shall vote now, an' leaf it up to you ones.

++Dancing Spawn

[Aiwendil]

Okay, since Boromir88 has indicated a willingness to vote against Dancing Spawn, we should be able to avoid a double lynch. I simply don't think there's any real evidence against Formendacil at this point. So my vote is:

++Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

Now if Boromir88 and SPM allow a double lynch, we'll know they're up to no good.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, voting deadlines comin’ up. And it’s ’bout time I aired my views on what has gone on today and how I view each of you, my fellow villagers.

Aiwendil: Seen naught to change my initial view. Helpful and sensible contributions. Naught to suggest Wolfishness.

Boromir88: That there lad, ’e be ’ard work on the ears. Wish ’e could speak proper like me. But sensible thoughts, when I can unnerstand wot he dun be sayin’. Again, naught to suggest Wolfishness as yet.

Dancing spawn: Took badly to Aiwendil’s comments ‘bout the Seer. But I’m sure we are all concerned to protect our Seer (those of us as are innocent, that is). And I can’t reall see ‘ow it makes ‘er any more likely to be a Wolf than anyone else.

Fordim Hedgethistle: Suspicious, for the reasons I have stated before. Not contributing nearly enough for one so bright.

Formendacil: Looks like ‘e might be for the chop today. Can’t for the life of me see why. He’s done naught but flippantly claim to be a Wolf and then voted randomly. I don’t believe a Wolf would joke ‘bout isself bein’ a Wolf (although mayhaps that’s what ‘e wants us to think). Not nearly enough to go on.

Gurthang: The lad is correct that I still be suspicious of ‘im, following the revelation of this grand plan of ‘is. ‘E claims that is early vote was to spark conversation and protect the Seer. Well, as I said, ye can spark conversation without goin’ as far as to vote so early. And as for protecting yon’ Seer, well ’e ain’t doin’ a good job ’bout it. Why go an’ admit to it if that were what you were doin’, lad? It ain’t gonna work now you’ve done that. Could well be a Wolf who’s realised that ‘is plan to deflect suspicion ‘asn’t worked and is now frantically back-pedalling. Remains suspicious.

Holbytlass: Her suggestion that we look at those as kill animals for a livin’ was a bit strange, but then she’s not the only one who’s been making random accusations.

Jack: Reaction to Holby’s list raises some suspicions, but not much else to go on.

Kath: Didn’t like the way she seized on Jack’s words so eagerly. Is her tendency to confuse Fordim and Formendacil part of a strategy to confuse? I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

Lhunadarwen: Not a lot to go on. Early vote for WaynetheGoblin was explained. And who can blame anyone for voting for Wayne? ;)

Mormegil: Not a lot to go on, but seems helpful and constructive.

Rune: Still keeping’ an eye on him for ’is tit-for-tat accusation of me. But ’as done very little else to attract suspicion.

The Saucepan Man: Innocent, I tell thee.

WaynetheGoblin: Who knows with Wayne? ‘E’s a man of few words and those that ‘e utters tell us little. Could be a Wolf or a Cobbler, but could just as well be an ordinary innocent or even a gifted. I won’t risk voting for ‘im - not yet anyways.

Wilwarin: Little to go on, but naught too suspicious so far.

Of course, there are a few there as ‘ave done little or naught to suggest any guilt on their part. Mayhaps, they are the ones as we should be worried about. But for now, I’m probably going to vote for one of them I find suspicious based on what they have said today.

I’m off for a smoke and a think. Back shortly to vote.

[Alcarillo]

DAY 1 will end in 5 minutes. Post anything else you have to say now.

[Gurthang]

Should the wolves choose to kill me tonight, I'd advise you all to look at Formendacil(if he's still alive). It may very well be that the wolves are killing me to set him up, so be careful. But it is just as likely that they would kill me because he is a wolf and they realize that I am the Seer.

Current leaders:

Spawn-4
Formendacil-3

[The Saucepan Man]

Cross-posted there with a few voters.

Well now it looks plain that dancing spawn will be lynched today. Can't say that I have any real reason to suspect either her or Formendacil. Nuthin I can do now will change today's outcome. So I shall make my position clear by placing my vote where it 'as been hovering all day - 'twixt Master Hedgethistle and Master Gurthang - and falling on:

++ FORDIM HEDGETHISTLE

[Alcarillo]

The Forostar was a desolate place. Bleak, purplish, rocky moors covered much of the land. Only a few shepherds wandered here and there, the only population in the central regions of the peninsula. There were no towns away from the coast, except in the southern regions. Often the only manmade structure one could see in all directions was the long road that stretched up to Sorontil. As one followed this road the land became more hilly, and through the hills one could catch a glimpse of Tar-Meneldur's ancient observatory. Eagles made their abode in the tower during the time of Ar-Pharazôn, and they became more commonly seen as one continued northwards. Eventually, the road reached the coast, dropping sheer into the sea with great black cliffs thick with fir and larch. Wherever the sea had pounded a harbor into the cliffs a tiny village grew. They dotted the coast, isolated and small. Their only major usefulness was to provide shelter for fishing fleets during storms on the sea, but those days were rare indeed while the Valar watched over the land. But as Númenor lost favor with the Avalôi, the villages became shelters for more than fishing boats . . .

* * * * *

The sun set in the West, and the entire sky over Númenor turned a wrathful orange. The black silhouettes of seagulls wheeled in the air, watching the villagers convene at the docks to lynch one of their own.

Each villager had a knot in his stomach and a deep feeling of dread. The votes were read aloud by the harbourmaster, and against the flaming northern sky he seemed a perfect match for Mandos himself. The votes were tallied and they declared that dancing spawn of ungoliant was to die. She sobbed into an embroidered handkerchief. "All I ever did was work with my needle, and my thread. *sob* I never in all my *sob* life hurt another soul! I didn't kill *sob* poor Alcarillo!"

She gained a few reassuring pats on the back, but someone shouted "Watch out! She could be a werewolf!" and the comfort ended. She sobbed even louder as she stood from where she sat by the pier and was poked into view by numerous pitchforks and shovels. The villagers gathered into a group behind her. "To the cliffs!" shouted someone. "Huzzah!" responded the villagers, and they poked dancing spawn towards the path at the edge of the village, the one that climbed up the old black cliffs that dropped sheer into the ocean. They moved single file up the steep path, between evergreen trees and ferns, until they reached the top of the cliffs. Through the trees one could see the ocean glittering. The group moved toward the cliff ledge that faced the sparkling sea. And at the very edge of the cliffs, where one more step would send dancing spawn to her death, she turned around, and she began to say something, but a thrust from one of the pitchforks thrust her off the black cliffs, and screaming she fell into the ocean below, dashed against the black rocks. The villagers watched her body transform as the waves washed over it. The dress burst as her dead body grew larger, and hairier, and her delicate hands became fierce claws. The villagers headed back to town to celebrate.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Gurthang – (possibly unemployed) dockhand
Holbytlass – butcher
Jack – blacksmith and farrier
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
Rune Son of Bjarne – Union leader
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor
Wilwarin538 – fiddler

It is now NIGHT 2. I need a name from the seer, ranger, and hunter. Villagers, stay silent, and werewolves, you may now PM. Sweet dreams!

[Alcarillo]

The coast of the Forostar was always a hideout for spies as long as there had been Elendili to spy on the King and an oppressive king to spy on the Elendili. Elendil would send his Elf-friends to the tiny hamlets of Númenor, where they waged an intelligence war against the King's men. Many were discovered and taken to Sauron's Temple, Zadan an-Mulkhêr, in Armenelos, and killed as sacrifices to Melkor. Sauron himself performed the sacrifices, under the name Zigûr, the Wizard. After long incantations in the Adûnaic (http://www.uib.no/People/hnohf/adunaic.htm) tongue, the victim would be subject to a painful and terrible death.

And when Zigûr was not within easy reach of his victims, he sent out his werewolves to do the job for him. Rarely did they not slaughter a village when told to do so. And rare was it that Ar-Pharazôn refused Sauron wolves to transform into werewolves by his dark arts, like those of Sauron's isle of Tol-in-Gaurhoth, long before the rise of Númenor.

* * * * *

The moon rose as the sun set, and the clouds of that day faded to reveal a thousand stars glittering over the entire island. The fog from the morning had long since dissipated. Jack stayed awake late into the night, listening to the sounds of the wind in the fir trees on the cliffs and staring at the stars through his bedroom window. His eyelids drooped and for a moment he could have been sleeping, and once more conversing with the old King of the Sea, the one who was hated most of all by Zigûr, so far away in the city. But Zigûr's reach was not as short as Jack expected. An ominous creak sounded behind him, and Jack snapped awake, alert and listening. Then there was no more noise besides the rush of the wind, and Jack leaned back in his old chair and drew an old blanket about him to fight off the cold. But a shadow moved in the corner, and Jack now stood. Was it his own shadow? Was the darkness playing tricks on his tired eyes? He grabbed a fire poker from the ashy fireplace, and with a weapon in hand, he once again, for the second time, tried to sleep. But now he couldn't. What if the werewolves had discovered him?

Jack could not sleep now. He had to light a candle and see for himself if the house was empty. He stood and moved towards the door to the hall, but found it locked. He tugged and pulled on the doorknob, but to no avail. Where were his keys? By the fireplace. Jack groped about until his hand rested upon the cold, stone, fireplace, searching for the peg upon which he hung his keys. But his hand wandered to far into the darkness and touched something furry, and warm.

* * * * *

When the villagers awoke they were dismayed to find that Jack was missing, and took his valuable skills in weaponry with him. And so as the sun rose the villagers made their daily pilgrimage to the home of the latest victim of the wolves. They found the front door unlocked, and they entered and searched the few rooms of Jack's home. The only sign of a grisly murder was the head of Jack's horse, discovered among the sheets of his bed. But they did not find Jack's body in the house. Instead, they found Jack's remains in the forge. Wedged into the furnace was an ashy mound. The villagers realized with horror that this was Jack. They could even make out the ashy remains of an arm or a foot, covered with black soot and barely recognizable. On the top of the pile sat Jack's eyeballs, perfectly intact despite the roasting the rest of Jack's body received.

"So they killed the seer." said Wilwa glumly.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Gurthang – (possibly unemployed) dockhand
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
Rune Son of Bjarne – Union leader
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor
Wilwarin538 – fiddler

DAY 2 has now begun! Wolves, stop PMing, villagers can start talking now, and the Hunter needs to PM me by the DAY's end. Happy hunting!

[mormegil]

So the wolves strike back with ferosity I see. In reviewing Jack's post I can see how a wolf who would spend time examining every post would come to the conclusion that Jack was the seer. Now one helpful assumption would be that SpM is innocent. I'll explain why as I go.

Rune, don't vote for someone just because of personal dislikes. Saucepan Man is an important person here. He thinks more clearly than a few of us. Since we have to vote somebody off today, and since there are really no good reasons to vote anyone off, I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category. True, some of us might suspect them, but at this point in the game, it would be folly indeed to kill any one of these.

If SpM is innocent, which I believe, Jack indicates here one of his stronger affirmations (I know Folwren is female) of innocence. Then wisely includes others who are unknown, Fordim and me. Now this may tip the hat a little to the wolves but not enough to know he was the seer.

And all I had to say to deflect that argument, I thought, was say that I didn't kill animals by day (therefore it would follow that I didn't kill humans by night). Guess I was wrong on that bit of logic. No. I don't kill anything at night. One would think that after spending all day at the anvil or shoeing horses (that sometime have the audacity to lean entirely on me while trying to fit the shoe), it'd be pretty obvious that all I did was sleep at night.

Here is another clue, subtle and innocent in itself but when coupled with the next it's devastating.

To Holbytlass's vote, I've one thing to say with a merry twinkle in my eye:

"Ha!"

I believe that all of this was too much for the wolves to miss. Most of the contention showed by Jack yesterday was directed at Holby, though I'm not sure of her guilt she's somebody to watch though she could be being set up by the wolves.

Now Jack voted for Formendacil, does that mean anything? He claimed to be a wolf but Jack's logic was simply that--He claimed to be a wolf. I'm not sure he was certain of his guilt. My assumption is that he dreampt of SpM as would most seers.

Now looking at votes I think it's fairly safe to assume that Boromir and Aiwendil are innocent, they cross posted at the same time thinking they would give Spawn the 3rd vote and put her in the lead. There is a possibility that they could be the cobbler but I doubt it.

There is somebody that isn't sitting right with me but I will review their posts and write more later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Durn! They don gone killed our Seer! Kind of like takes the edge off of us lynchin’ a Wolf yesterday. Takes t’edge of it, I tell thee.

Having reviewed poor Jack’s words yesterday, it seems to me as there were some things them there Wolves might of picked up on. So mayhaps they knew he was the Seer. Or mayhaps it was a clumsy attempt to frame Formendacil, on account of Jack’s vote.

Well, here be yesterday’s voting record - in chronological order like, with a tally of the state of voting after each vote were cast.

1. Gurthang votes for Formendacil (Formen - 1)
2. Lhuna votes for WaynetheGoblin (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1)
3. Wayne votes for Lhunadarwen (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1)
4. Spawn votes for Aiwendil (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1)
5. Formendacil votes for Dancing Spawn (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 1)
6. Fordim votes for Spawn (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2)
7. Mormegil votes for Gurthang (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1)
8. Kath votes for Fordim Hedgethistle (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1)
9. Holbytlass votes for Jack (Formen - 1; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
10. Jack votes for Formendacil (Formen - 2; Wayne - 1; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
11. Rune votes for Wayne (Formen - 2; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
12. Wilwarin votes for Formendacil (Formen - 3; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 2; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
13. Boromir88 votes for Spawn (Formen - 3; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 3; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
14. Aiwendil votes for Spawn (Formen - 3; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 4; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 1; Jack - 1)
15. SpM votes for Fordim Hedgethistle (Formen - 3; Wayne - 2; Lhuna - 1; Aiwendil - 1; Spawn - 4; Gurthang - 1; Fordim - 2; Jack - 1)

I’m off for a smoke an’ a think. Back in a mo’ with more thoughts.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am not sure the wolves knew that Jack was the seer, this could however just be because I did not see it my self. . .

The only thing that struck me as odd, was the post about the: twinkle in my eye

The other posts as Mormegil mentions seems to be rather inoccent and I am having it hard to belive that the wolves figured it out. I belive that they either were lucky or they spottet the twinkle in Jacks eye and took a chance.

About sauce pan beeing inoccent: That could very well be, but I need to give it more thought

- Rune

P.S. Great job getting a wolf the first day, I am impressed.

[mormegil]

I
The other posts as Mormegil mentions seems to be rather inoccent and I am having it hard to belive that the wolves figured it out. I belive that they either were lucky or they spottet the twinkle in Jacks eye and took a chance.


True the other posts do seem innocent enough but if you look at the whole picture it shows a different story. Though it doesn't help us lynch the next wolf I find it compelling.

[Holbytlass]

Oh no, the seer is gone! I just had a quick look, and it does make sense for SpM to be dreamt of first. What was that with Gurthang claiming to be seer? On the surface, it looks noble that he's drawing the wolves' attention away from the real seer (Jack) but wouldn't that also draw the ranger's protection away (or at least the ranger's best guess)? Please explain, Gurthang.

[Aiwendil]

Would that my advice had been heeded! The loss of our Seer is a grim stroke indeed. And our wolves are exceedingly crafty if they were able to discern Jack's true nature.

I commented yesterday that the votes for Formendacil looked odd to me. They look even worse in view of the fact that Dancing Spawn was a wolf. It seems unlikely that Spawn's two compatriots would sit back and let her get lynched - it may be that they made an effort to get Formendacil killed instead. Overnight I've been thinking that we should look carefully at those who voted for Formendacil. They are:

Gurthang
Jack
Wilwarin

And in a vote as close as the one yesterday, it seems unlikely to me that the either of the other wolves would have voted for Spawn. Those that did vote for Spawn were:

Formendacil
Fordim
Boromir
Aiwendil

Now, obviously, Jack was innocent. But Wilwarin looks rather suspicious to me at the moment. She voted for Formendacil when he and Spawn were tied at 2.

As for Gurthang - his behaviour is quite confusing. First he votes for Formendacil without explanation. Then he claims that this was an attempt to protect the Seer. Then he claims he is the Seer. Either he's a very clumsy villager or he's a very daring wolf or he's the Cobbler. I'm inclined to think the latter.

Well, those are my immediate thoughts.

[The Saucepan Man]

In reviewing Jack's post I can see how a wolf who would spend time examining every post would come to the conclusion that Jack was the seer.‘Appen I agree with you there mormegil, my lad. You spotted the same things in Jack’s posts as I did.

My assumption is that he dreampt of SpM as would most seers.‘Appen I agree with you there too. Mores the pity, as it puts me in a most precarious position. The only other villager that Jack might have dreamed of, based on what 'e said like, is Wayne, as young Jack stuck up for ‘im too. An’ I can see why a Seer might dream of young Wayne, given that ’e gives little away in what ‘e says. But I tend to think it was me that Jack dreamed of. Ah well, let ‘em come at me. I’ve survived Werewolves before. I can like as not survive ‘em again.

Now, for a look at yesterday’s votes.

The votes for Spawn (a most fitting name, I might say) came from Formendacil, Master Hedgethistle, Boromir88 and Aiwendil, in that order (though, as mormegil points out, the last two cross-posted). ‘Tis possible that Formendacil thought Spawn might be a safe vote for a fellow Wolf, but I doubt it, being as Spawn was already attracting suspicion for raising ‘er Seer issues with Aiwendil. So I am inclined to trust in Formendacil’s innocence, for now. Same goes for Master Fordim. My suspicion of him yesterday was genuinely held ‘n all, but ’tis greatly lessened now. I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for a fellow Wolf to put ‘er ahead in the voting. If I am right in this, Master Hedgethistle, I did you a disservice yesterday and apologise most ‘umbly.

Now looking at votes I think it's fairly safe to assume that Boromir and Aiwendil are innocent, they cross posted at the same time thinking they would give Spawn the 3rd vote and put her in the lead.Well, I agrees with you as far as Aiwendil is concerned. Particularly as Spawn ‘erself voted for ‘im. Then again, I never suspected ‘im much yesterday. And I guess that probably goes for our crab farmer too, though I be less sure of ‘im. Reason being that ’e could have been sacrificing a fellow Wolf to gain the appearance of innocence. I certainly wouldn’t put it past ’im. And when I looked over ’is comments from yesterday, I was slightly troubled. ’E was flip-flopping a bit, if you take my meaning. ’E made a number of accusations early on, then backtracked on ’em and started puttin’ forward other suspects. ’E didn’t give any indication that he suspected Spawn until quite late on in the day, but then done went an’ voted for ’er, effectively condemning ’er (as ’e knew Aiwendil was likely to vote for ’er). ’Twould be a risky ruse for a Wolf, but one which could reward ’im richly if it meant we all pegged ’im as an innocent.

As for the other votes, Mistress Wilwarin’s vote stands out, being as it put Formendacil ahead of Spawn in the lyncing stakes. But I can’t helpt thinking that a Wolf wouldn’t be that obvious in tryin’ to save ‘er fellow Wolf. Funny, but ‘er “suspicious” vote makes Wilwa less suspicious in my eyes.

The votes of mormegil, Holbytlass, Kath and Rune all put forward alternative candidates when Spawn was on two votes. As such, they are mildly suspicious and so I reason that there may well be a Wolf among ‘em.

Can’t tell much from the votes of Lhuna and Wayne - which leaves young Gurthang. And ‘e troubles me still, particularly as I’m inclined to think Formendacil innocent, an‘ Gurthang was gunnin‘ for ‘im right up to the end of the day. And what was all that about trying to protect the Seer? Well, my lad, clearly you failed. Could well be a Wolf but, presently, I’ve got ‘im pegged as a possible Cobbler.

[mormegil]

My suspicion that I spoke of earlier is already being voiced by some. It is of course Wilwarin538 and not only because of her vote for Formendacil.

Anyway, since many others whove spoke accused someone, I might as well do the same. I'll use my number to choose three suspects, and I'll come up wit the best reasons I can think of.

3. Dancing Spawn of Ungliant - Well she embroiderd' me a case for my fiddle last week. It was red, I hate red, every person that lives within in a mile of the village knows that, plus red is the colour of blood, maybe she 'adn't seen blood for awhile and was missin what it looked like.

Now, these selections of hers were random, or so she says, so we can either believe her or disbelieve her. It seems a common wolfish trick to mention early a fellow wolf then back off suspicion just a bit.

Dancing spawn of ungoliant - Has gotten de mos votes thus far. Not sure bouts her. 5

Formendacil – E's posted a few times I believe. Though somethin bout him is strange. Like his last post for 'xample, very strange. 4

Gurthang – Seems one of da most suspicious like to me. A bit defensive, votes early. My vote may possibly be for him. 3

Jack – Talks a bit, makes 'imself sound smart, then advises us not to vote for smart people. Tryin to save 'imself perhaps? Vote possibly for 'im. 3


Wilwarin used a ranking system of 1 to 10 as 10 being innocent and 1 being guilty. 5 seems to be rather conspicuous a number to me, though of course I was a 5 too which adds to my suspicion (I'll explain in a second) She wants us to think that Spawn is still in her sights at this stage but give us an excuse for backing off later because she found others more suspicious. Now why I think having me as a 5 is more implicating of her guilt, ot me at least, is that I am innocent and a wise wolf would at least include one other with the same number so as to not draw attention to that.

Notice that she has Gurthang ahead of Formendacil in that post yet she votes for Formendacil

Out of the three with 2 votes Formendacil was the one who had more of my suspicion. I would like to vote for Jack but that would be rather piontless and I don't want to be accused later of keeping the double lynch. So I think the best choice would be:

++Formendacil

I hope that wasn't a bad choice.

Now this post could implicate her further or actually help to exonerate her. If she truly wanted to vote Jack I think you should have. There were still others after you to break the tie but if you truly thought Jack was guilty concience should dictate that you vote for him. But if you buy her altruistic explination then she is innocent.

Still most telling is that she broke the tie and voted for the person, in my mind, who was the least guilty looking of the three in the tie.

However with those that voted for Spawn is should be remembered as SpM pointed out they could be a wolf. I say this because as we know Spawn was going to have problems participating in our daily meetings and council so perhaps she was a sacrifice to help establish innocence. As for me I will be currently trusting SpM, and Aiwendil and to a lesser degree Boromir.

[The Saucepan Man]

On the surface, it looks noble that he's drawing the wolves' attention away from the real seer (Jack) but wouldn't that also draw the ranger's protection away (or at least the ranger's best guess)? Please explain, Gurthang.An excellent point, Mistress Butcher. And it feeds my growing suspicion of Gurthang. I too would like to hear your explanation, my lad.

But Wilwarin looks rather suspicious to me at the moment. She voted for Formendacil when he and Spawn were tied at 2.But, like I said, it would 'ave been a risky vote for a Wolf. If Spawn gets lynched (as she did), such a vote would immediately put 'er under suspicion (as it has).

I would be more inclined to look at those who put forward alternative candidates. A much less riskier way of tryin' to save a fellow Wolf, since any votes that followed would mask it as a "saving" vote.

Either [Gurthang]'s a very clumsy villager or he's a very daring wolf or he's the Cobbler. I'm inclined to think the latter.On that, you an' I are in agreement.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Well who’d have thunk that, eh? We got ourselves a wolf despite all the odds agin it. Wish I could claim some kind of special credit for having voted against her, but it was luck pure and simple…well…that and the good sense to listen to that there Aiwendil bloke.

So here’s the four who voted for that hairy fiend Spawn:

Formendacil & Me (we voted simultaneously by cross-posting so we’re tied for first)
Boromir88 & Aiwendil (who also voted simultaneously by cross-posting so they’re tied for second)

Much as I would like to claim that these people are all in the clear, I can’t (except for myself, cause I know I’m not a wolf).

Formendacil may have voted for a fellow wolf simply to avoid the appearance that they are working together. A daring move, but not so daring on the first day with votes going all over the place – the odds that his vote would lead to a hanging were slim.

Boromir88 and Aiwendil fall under similar logic. Once I had voted for Spawn, giving her two votes, maybe one of them (or both of them) followed wolfish logic of sacrificing her to get themselves in the clear for good…. And given that Spawn’s vote was for Aiwendil it might have been an elaborate attempt to really put him above all suspicion at the game’s very beginning…

Now that having been said, I think it more than likely that all three of these fellow villagers is innocent, but I can’t be completely sure yet.

And a big thank you to the Man of the Sauce Pan for having guaranteed my survival this night by voting for me. With someone of your considerable capacity and tenacity gunning for me the wolves are going to be sure to leave me alive so that you can continue to try and convince the villagers to lynch an innocent pearl diver…which, now that I think of it, is a wonderful strategy for a wolf…hmmmm…let me see…

1) I suggested a way of detecting wolves – Saucepan Man claims that my strategy is not useful and casts suspicion on me…

2) I vote for the wolf Spawn and Saucepan Man votes for me, at a time when – as he admits – there is no way I will be lynched, thus preserving my life (when Spawn’s fate is already sealed, in part by me, see above) and keeping me around to call suspicion on my head. Now, in his latest post he's retraced his steps a bit and claims that now he thinks I'm innocent...genuine...or part of a brilliant ploy -- "only an innocent would apologise for making that mistake; I am the model of sincerity. Trust me, trust me!"

I have two eyes in my head and they are firmly fixed upon you my good Harbour Master.

Oh but he’s not alone: Gurthang is still very suspicious to me and not so much for his early voting as for the fact that Spawn defended him. There's been some talk of him being the cobbler, which does make a certain amount of sense to me: he's certainly been complicating things and saying much while contributing little of real clarity. If I had to vote right now, I can thinks of where my vote might go....but there's still a day to go....

And that Lhuna is mighty tricksy it seems. Says this about mormegil:

Seer comments on Aiwendil's suggestion came off a bit scary to me, I don't know why.

And this about Spawn:

does not suspect Gurthang's early voting. Has doubts on Aiwendil's Seer suggestion.

Now why, I ask, are morm’s doubts about Aiwendil’s suggestion “scary” to her, but Spawn’s “doubts” pass without real comment? Then she goes and votes for an extremely ‘easy’ target, the early-but-infrequent poster Wayne.

I wants to be clear -- I've been casting quite a bit of suspicion about here but I'm making no accusations, as yet. This is all in the first flush of my horror for the loss of our Seer and an immediate reaction to what happened yesterday. Those as I've looked at here may very well say things this day that remove them from my sights -- while others as are currently looking innocent may make me nervous.

I still says that the trick here is to identify groups -- folk as seem to act alike. So far, I think we can lump together

Rune
Wayne
Gurthang

as the suspicious looking ones, saying or not doing things that makes them stand out -- stupid wolves? clumsy innocents?

Boromir88
Aiwendil
Saucepan Man

as the 'known' (too-good-to-be-true?) innocents..or ar they brilliant wolves?

Wilwarin
Formendacil
mormegil
Holbytlass
Kath
Lhuna

as the hapless innocents -- don't seem to be proceeding with any particular agenda of any sort, seem to be guessing and almost niaf (for example, mistakenly voting for people...)

Like I said, the best strategy for the wolves is to hide by acting different from one another, so I would suggest that we search for one wolf in each group.

Oh yes, as for meself -- well, I know I'm not a wolf so I would probably fit into group one or two, depending on your view of me.

[Boromir88]

Poor Jack, I 'ad no clue she was the seer. I's thought it wus sumone else, but I aint gonna go into who.

Jus' to make a comment on me spekkin' Panman. Sorry, I neva lurned 'ow to spek, 'haps if Aiwendil and I survive dis mess, I can lurn.

I'm gonna seperate evryone into groops.

Most likely Innocent:
Aiwendil
Fordim

For right now I'm gonna accept deese two as innocent, cus of their votes fur spawn yesterday. Take my vote in whuteva way you like But, to me if eider Aiwendil or I wus a wulf, it wuld seem 'ighly illogical to vote fur her, knowing we culd save 'er.

Fordim fur puttin' Spawn a'ed of evryone else, another crucial vote. I dun think a wulf would make such a crucial vote fur anutha wolf so early in the game.

As of right now, acceptin' them as innocent:
Panman
Formendacil

Formendacil, cus of 'is vote fur Spawn, 'es likely innocent. But, 'e could be a wolf who dun think 'is vote would 'ave caused Spawn's death. 'Owever, I take 'im as innocent right now.

Sauce, cuz 'es generally 'elpful. 'Es slightly suspishus cus I dun quite unnerstand 'is votin' reasons yesturday, per'aps 'e can explain?
Nuthin I can do now will change today's outcome.
Dunno wut 'e means when 'e says 'e cant change the outcome now. Per'aps I'm readin' too much into it, but jus' sounds slightly fishy. Though, I s'pose the Seer would of dreamed of 'im the furst night, but I aint gonna take that fur granted.

Unsure:
This is the biggest group, cus I jus' cant get a reddin on 'em. My logic is to try to narrow down as many as possible, cuz the less choices of whos a possible wolf, the better chance of catchin' one. Sumtimes ya jus' cant think if ya got too many names runnin' in yur 'ead. So, I always like too narrows it down a bit. Process of 'liminashun my pa liked to call it.
Gurthang
Lhuna
Wayne
Mormegil
Kath
Wilwarin
Most of deese are unsure cus they aint spekkin' a lot. Which, not spekkin' a lot isn't wolfishness, 'owever it gets ya wonderin'. The only one that 'as been spekkin' more dan the others would be mormegil, but I'm unsure 'bout 'im becus of 'is vote (I'll splain in a minute).

My two biggest surspects:
Rune
Holbytlass
I's been suspishus of these two fur mos' of the day yesturday, and their votes dun 'elp calm my suspishuns. I would 'ave voted fur Holbytlass yesturday, but I dun like the idear of addin' anutha name in, cus we 'ad seven, and logic tells us one is prolly a wolf. So, I jus' dun wanna add anutha name, but Holby and Rune are my two main surspects.

Now frum votin' yesturday. I take (fur today) these three as innocent, cus of the vote.
Fordim
Aiwendil
Formendacil

This leafs us with two wolfs, an' nine peeple total. (I'm excludin' myself, cus wuts the poin'. I'm tryin' to nail a wolf usin' my own 'ead and gut feelin'). One of the three above, may be a wolf, but remember, process of 'liminashun, we wanna liminate as many peeple as possible. 'Least one of these peeple is a wolf.

Panman
mormegil
Kath
Rune
Holbytlass
Wilwarin
Gurthang
Wayne
Lhuna

Right now I 'ave no strong ressin to think Panman is a wolf, so I aint considerin' 'im.

The group I'm interested in, is the ones that voted after Fordim put Spawn up by two.

mormegil (for Gurthang)
Kath (for Fordim)
Holby (for Jack)
Rune (for Wayne)
Wilwarin (for Formendacil)

I shuld surspect one of these as bein' a wulf. Now, I know I've been pretty suspishus of Holby, but I will wait and see sum more, cus I realized she voted fur Jack. This could be a set up by the wolves, but per'aps not, I'll wait fur now.

The mos' suspishus looks to be Rune or Wilwarin. The tied votin' between Spawn, Formendacil, an' Wayne. I shuld surspect one of these wus tryin' to create as much trouble for us innocents at the end on who to chose, an' 'opin we dun pick der buddy. But, it didn't wurk out as planned. So, right now my top surspects are:

1: Rune
2: Wilwarin
3: Holby

[Boromir88]

Correcshun on my las' post, Rune tied things between Spawn, Formen, an' Wayne. Wilwarin broke the tie. I still 'old them as my two big surspects, jus' wanted to correct that.

[mormegil]

The only one that 'as been spekkin' more dan the others would be mormegil, but I'm unsure 'bout 'im becus of 'is vote (I'll splain in a minute).

I'm not sure you explained. Do you care to?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS of Gurthang's "OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS"

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Subject: Gurthang
Analysis: Early vote.
Approximate possible reasons: 6

1. Gurthang is the Seer and dreamed of a wolf.
Gurthang dreamed of a wolf last night. Rather than coming out right away and saying that he was the Seer, he decided to make a more direct approach. This way, the wolves might not realize he’s the Seer, but rather a bumbling innocent. Later, when the Seer dies, the villagers will be able to come back and see that Gurthang knew Formendacil to be a wolf.
2. Gurthang is the Seer and did not dream of a wolf.
Gurthang is trying to draw attention to himself because it is unexpected of Seers. Seers tend to stay more quite and less accusing. By trying to be the center of attention, he is hoping that the wolves will look elsewhere for the Seer.


We can now set aside these theories...Gurthang ain't no Seer...

3. Gurthang is a wolf.
Gurthang is a wolf attempting to hide out in the open, thinking that others would assume a wolf to be smarter than to draw so much attention to himself.


Can't think of any reason to set this one aside.

4. Gurthang is an innocent protecting the Seer.
By accusing one person, Gurthang is hoping to nail a wolf. Thus, the wolves will think he is the Seer. They kill him during the night. This saves the Seer, and proves the one Gurthang accused to be a wolf.

This didn't quite work out...did it?

5. Gurthang is an innocent trying to spark conversation.
The town was quiet, so Gurthang was trying to flare up some conversation.

Seems to me there's less drastic ways of doing that.

6. Gurthang is the cobbler.
Gurthang is simply trying to confuse everyone.


For those who haven't noticed, the only two options from this list -- which Gurthang himself has thoughtfully provided -- that remain unproblematically believeable are numbers 3 and 6....

I still ain't making any accusations. I'm just going through yesterday's posts again and this one kind of leaped out at me -- like a pearl from an oyster shell you could say.

[Aiwendil]

Fordim mentioned a matter to which I've given some thought: our harbourmaster. I was going to wait and observe him longer without voicing any suspicion, but now that the topic's been broached, I might as well speak my mind.

I said earlier that the wolves must be crafty indeed if they picked Jack out as the Seer. Now, he may not quite speak the king's Adunaic, but The Saucepan Man is a clever fellow. If he's a wolf, he's a very good one, and any signs will be subtle in the extreme.

YesterDAY, he voiced suspicion of Gurthang and Fordim - notice that he did not suspect Dancing Spawn. Of course, it's completely possible (indeed, rather likely) that he simply failed to guess she was a wolf. On the other hand, he did just what I think a smart wolf would do in that situation. He refrained from adding fuel to the fire burning against Spawn, but he made no obvious move to save her. And he saved his vote for the end, giving it to Fordim only once Spawn could not be saved. Today he retracts his accusation of Fordim - as indeed he must. But notice that he does not voice suspicion of Wilwarin, claiming that her vote was too obvious for a wolf. A genuine analysis or a subtle effort to save his surviving comrade?

Now there's the matter of Jack's defense of SPM. Mormegil seems to surmise that Jack dreamt of our harbourmaster and found him innocent. I agree that this is a strong possibility. On the other hand, Jack did not leave any clear statement on the matter.

I'm certainly not suggesting we lynch SPM now or in the foreseeable future. But I wouldn't put him on a "likely innocent" list just yet either.

[The Saucepan Man]

I vote for the wolf Spawn and Saucepan Man votes for me, at a time when – as he admits – there is no way I will be lynched, thus preserving my life ...I voted for you 'cos you looked suspicious to me. Plain an' simple. I don't see 'ow that put you under any more suspicion than a number of others. And, if you are innocent, then, by my reckoning, the reason you (or any other innocent) weren't attacked is 'cos the Wolves thought they'd spotted the Seer.

Now, in his latest post he's retraced his steps a bit and claims that now he thinks I'm innocent...genuine...or part of a brilliant ploySimple fact is you look to be innocent on account of yer having voted fer a Wolf. Sommet I could not have known 'til the Wolf was lynched. Armed with that knowledge, I revised me view of yer. But I am quite 'appy to reconsider if you care to give me reason to. :p

Gurthang is still very suspicious to me and not so much for his early voting as for the fact that Spawn defended him.Good point that, and sommet I'd noticed too. But, as far as 'is early vote is concerned, the same can be said for a nummer of others.

Like I said, the best strategy for the wolves is to hide by acting different from one another, so I would suggest that we search for one wolf in each group.But there are two Wolves left and three of yer groups! Although I tend to think that there is a Wolf in each of yer first and third groups. Currently, I would put you (and Formendacil) in yer second group.

'Es slightly suspishus cus I dun quite unnerstand 'is votin' reasons yesturday, per'aps 'e can explain?I set out me reasons for voting fer Master Hedgethistle throughout most of what I said yesterday. As I've said, me opinion on 'im has since changed, on account of 'm having helped bag a Wolf.

Dunno wut 'e means when 'e says 'e cant change the outcome now.Put simply, my crab herding friend, whichever way I voted at that time, Spawn would still have been lynched. The only way I could 'ave affected the result was to 'ave voted for Formendacil, tying 'im with Spawn. Which would 'ave been foolish, as it would 'ave caused a double lynching, and so was not really an option.

One thing afore I go for me morning nap. There's been a lot of talk 'bout Wilwa's vote. Now, before she becomes today's bandwagon, I would ask everyone to consider whether a Wolf would really have voted in the way she did. Not sayin' she's definately innocent. But the obvious Wolfishness of her vote makes it seem un-Wolfish, to my mind.

[The Saucepan Man]

Can't really argue with yer analysis, Master Scholar. Everthin' that I've said 'as been motivated by a genuine desire to catch these 'ere Wolves. But I don't expect you to take my word for that and I don't expect anyone to take me innocence fer granted like. No one is above suspicion and I certainly ain't regarding anyone (including you) as innocent fer sure. That said, there are most definately those as I regard as more suspicious than others.

My thoughts on Wilwa are genuine. I'm not saying she shouldn't come under suspicion. Just suggesting that people consider things that might look suspicious on the face of it from all angles like before castin' their vote. D'you see?

Now, if you don't mind, I need to get me beauty sleep.

[Gurthang]

Wow, talk about blow for blow. Excellant job on taking out a wolf, though luck it most likely was. Yet it seems the wolves are equally as lucky. Let's hope their luck ends at that.

Oh no, the seer is gone! I just had a quick look, and it does make sense for SpM to be dreamt of first. What was that with Gurthang claiming to be seer? On the surface, it looks noble that he's drawing the wolves' attention away from the real seer (Jack) but wouldn't that also draw the ranger's protection away (or at least the ranger's best guess)? Please explain, Gurthang.

Well, if all eyes would have been drawn, then it would have worked. Meaning that if both the Ranger and the Wolves would have believed me, then no one would have been killed. Also, I was kind of assuming that the Seer wouldn't be leaving hints this early. Obviously, I was wrong on all counts.

Master Fordim, I appreciate your analysis of my analysis of myself. I would like to note that you eliminate number 4 simply because it failed. Just because it failed to the worst degree doesn't mean that wasn't what I was trying to do. You pushed that aside rather quickly, and that could be seen as wolvish by some.

As far as me being the Cobbler, well, I'm simply not. And don't say that means I'm a wolf, because I'm not that either. (Yeah, like anyone will believe me just saying it.)

Now, call me crazy, but I'm beginning to wonder about Formendacil. I voted for him yesterday to try to distract the wolves and get people talking. I didn't suspect him then. But the thing that is really bugging me is why would the Seer back up my vote? I don't get it. Why not vote for someone who didn't have a vote, rather than voting to put someone into the lead? And Formendacil was the first one to vote for Spawn, but it was an early vote and could very well be a 'safe' wolf vote that went bad. All that isn't much to go on, but I'll be keeping an eye open.

One last thing, everything that Aiwendil makes incredible sense to me. (Not saying I agree 100%)

[Holbytlass]

I'm getting suspicious of Aiwendil because of the finger-pointing between Dancing Spawn and him. Spawn also voted for him early on, so early there were no votes against her so she didn't even know she would have to try and save herself. Aiwendil waits to see what becomes of her(post63) then joins the bandwaggon to be part of bagging a wolf.


And in a vote as close as the one yesterday, it seems unlikely to me that the either of the other wolves would have voted for Spawn. Those that did vote for Spawn were:

Formendacil
Fordim
Boromir
Aiwendil
I love how he subtlely tries to steer everyone away from the group he's in, because no one has ever heard of a wolf voting for another wolf. The other wolf probably tried to save her and he joined in.

[Formendacil]

Hmm.... Things have taken some really interesting turns since I last visited this thread (busy life... for more details, push 1).

At the moment I'm a bit on the tired side (well, it's just after Midnight, so I ought to be in bed), so I'll not do more than say that, with so many votes coming up for me, it is quite likely that at least one of the Wolves voted for Spawn, thinking it a safe vote. Because of our respectively tied early votes, I would not think Fordim to be guilty, thus narrowing it down to Boromir and Aiwendil.

However, one of the wolves could just as easily have been hiding among the masses that were trying to kill me. I don't suspect the initial voter (Gurthang), but only because of his timing. Jack, of course, is off the hook by reason of his sadly death-proven innocence. That leaves Wilwa.

Of these three, Boromir, Aiwendil, and Wilwa, I think we may find ONE of our wolves, but I think it unlikely that we will find both. As of yet, I have no idea which of the three is most suspicious, but I'll try and sort out some thoughts there in my next post. (Don't expect it for 12 hours or so, though).

Goodnight and adieu!

[Gurthang]

I'm certainly not suggesting we lynch SPM now or in the foreseeable future. But I wouldn't put him on a "likely innocent" list just yet either.

If I were the Seer, I know I would have dreamed of him or Master Fordim. I actually feel quite comfortable (for now) assuming that Jack did indeed dream of Master Saucepan and backed him up based on that dream. In a few days, if Master Saucepan has not been killed by the wolves, I will examine him more closely. For now, he's on the 'look at later' shelf.

And now I'm beginning to wonder about Wilwa, too. Look at this:

So the votes are:

Spawn (2)
Formendacil (2)
Wayne (2)
Lhuna
Aiwendil
Gurthang
Fordim
Jack

Out of the three with 2 votes Formendacil was the one who had more of my suspicion. I would like to vote for Jack but that would be rather piontless and I don't want to be accused later of keeping the double lynch. So I think the best choice would be:

++Formendacil

I hope that wasn't a bad choice.

I just don't know. She broke the tie, which is good in itself. But she broke it by 'saving' a wolf and pushing the death of an unknown. And the fact that she admits that she isn't voting for her top suspect interests me, too. She didn't even vote for her second suspect: me. Both Jack and I received 3's on her list. Rune, Holbytlass and Formendacil all had 4's. So her vote went to someone who could have been as low as 5th on her list. Also notice that all of the five except Holbytlass had already received a vote. If she was more convinced of Jack than she was of Formendacil, she could have voted for him and left the tie-breaking to someone else. It would not have been a wasted vote, it would have made it a four-way tie.

[Lhunardawen]

Oh dear! Mister Jack has been killed, and he was the Seer! May he sleep in peace...

It's a pity our Ranger had not seen this coming; he/she could have protected him. But his hints were a bit too subtle. I myself had no idea he was the Seer either; I just think some of his words were a bit weird. Thanks Mister mormegil for pointing them out and how they hint his Seership. Funnily, no offense sir but that makes me suspect you just a teeny weeny bit because you could have seen that if you and your fellow wolf (if any) were deciding who to kill last night, and just presented it to us toDay in the guise of helpfulness. But don't worry, it's just a teeny weeny bit, it's nothing to worry about.

Good thing we've lynched the lycan dancing spawn (I can be in no way polite to her now), so that gives us one less werewolf to think about. However I believe that at least one of her two remaining companions are among those we consider wise, for they have spotted the Seer when the rest of us (or maybe it's just me) didn't. It could have been luck, but if they were merely counting on luck they could have chosen one of those we consider wise as their victim for the Night; I thought this would be a given for the werewolves to do. But they didn't, and I was wrong.

For now I'll do a bit of reminiscing and see what I can come up with. I'll be back with a relatively early vote, because this time is all my shepherding duties will allow.

[Lhunardawen]

But first off: Now why, I ask, are morm’s doubts about Aiwendil’s suggestion “scary” to her, but Spawn’s “doubts” pass without real comment? Then she goes and votes for an extremely ‘easy’ target, the early-but-infrequent poster Wayne.That, kind sir, is called a little girl's un-understandable mind. I told you I didn't know why Mister mormegil's comments were scary, they just were. Maybe because he was looking through a werewolf's perspective in his doubt, I don't know. But then I was hesitant to vote for either of them because I think they were both being a bit sensible. I voted for Mister Wayne because he did absolutely nothing, and that for me is irksome. It is better for me if a person does something the least bit suspicious than if he/she does nothing at all to help us determine if he/she is innocent or not.

*sigh* Anyways, my rambling.

Lady Kath - living up to her bum-ness? Too 'detached' from the game, too cool and dispassionate. Her not caring much for her mistake involving Fordim and Formendacil (voting for the former while describing the latter in her explanation) was unsettling, plus the explanation was lousy. Could be an honest mistake, could be not. "Suspected" Jack but did not vote for him. I think she's scaring me a bit. Only a werewolf could not care less about a life - anyone's life - and treat it so lightly. My vote could be in this direction toDay.

Mister mormegil - if he were a wolf, he could have voted for me, Wayne, Formendacil, or Aiwendil to create a tie with spawn and possibly save her. Voted for Gurthang, giving a different interpretation to the words of Aiwendil that pushed spawn to her death. Helpful much, and could be a target for Night death. As yet, still worth watching.

Mister Fordim - his grouping technique made a bit sense, but its being stereotypical is unsettling. Gave very sensible reason behind his vote, and since I don't think a wolf would vote for a fellow wolf on the first Day - and push her to death that much - I think for now he's innocent. Then again, he could be the basket the wolves are placing all their eggs into, we never know. That would be too risky, though.

Mister Wayne - a hiding wolf, or an innocent with really nothing to say? If this is how he will be in our plight I think we're better off without him; if he's innocent, at least he's one less to think about. Now that's not very polite, is it not Lhuna? Well I'm not voting for him again for now and will give him a chance to speak up and be of any help.

Mister Gurthang - I still believe he's innocent and just trying to spark conversation in his early vote. After all, the first Day's pretty much random. His analysis of himself could be a ploy to attract to himself attention: hiding in the open or sacrificial ordo? Claims innocence and helpfulness. I lean towards believing him now.

Lady wilwarin - senseless to repeat everything said about her, but I commend you all for seeing these things. She didn't worry me yesterday, but now I see that there is reason to worry.

I'm willing to let Holby, Formendacil, and Rune be for now.

I am inclined to believe that Misters Aiwendil, Boromir88, and SpM are innocent, the latter I trust was revealed by our Seer before his death.

Not much time! Must vote!

++Kath, begging your pardon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Aiwendil waits to see what becomes of her(post63) then joins the bandwaggon to be part of bagging a wolf. As far as I can make out, there was never really a “Spawn bandwagon”. The votes were evenly split amongst a number of candidates for most of the day. Also, Aiwendil did not turn on Spawn at the end of the day when he saw she was likely to be lynched. He had been voicing his suspicion of her throughout. If anyone “turned” on Spawn at the end, it was Boromir88.

Still, yer accusation of Aiwendil, who seems to be tentatively trusted by most, speaks in yer favour, to my mind Mistress Holby. A Wolf is unlikely to go against the flow like that.

... with so many votes coming up for me, it is quite likely that at least one of the Wolves voted for Spawn, thinking it a safe vote.A vote for Spawn was never really a “safe” Wolfish vote, given the close nature of the voting. And it seems to me that both Aiwendil and Boromir88 were aware of the likelihood that the other would vote for Spawn when they voted.

In a few days, if Master Saucepan has not been killed by the wolves, I will examine him more closely. For now, he's on the 'look at later' shelf.Well that’s just dandy, Gurthang me lad. If I don’t get mauled by Wolves, I get misself lynched for bein’ one! Damned if I do, damned if I don’t. Leastways, you’ve given the Wolves a reason not to kill me for the time being. :D

Oh, one more thing ‘bout Mistress Wilwa’s vote. Had Jack not died last night, much the same could be said ‘bout ‘is vote for Formendacil as is bein’ said ‘bout ‘ers. An’ ‘e was our Seer.

Like our Crab Farmer, it seems to me to be sensible to eliminate from my current thoughts those who have said or done things that are more likely to suggest their innocence than their guilt. Sommet to do with some Razor used by a bloke called Occam.

On that basis, I am discounting from my current considerations:

Aiwendil
Boromir88
Fordim Hedgethistle
Formendacil
Holbytlass
Wilwarin538

It should be clear from what I’ve said why I regard each of them as more likely to be innocent than guilty, though please note that I am not dismissing any of ‘em entirely. Just discounting ‘em for current purposes.

So, unless things change dramatically, my vote today will most probably come from the remaining group.

[Kath]

Apologies for my detachedness Lhuna, but bumming is a hard pasttime to keep up with! I have found a way to avoid confusion between Fordim and Formendacil now so there need be no worries about that. I'm quite glad now though that my misvote happened, because I fear that had I voted for Formendacil as intended it might have been him who was lynched and not spawn, who I must admit to having had no suspicions of whatsoever! My suspicion of Jack was because I could find nothing else to be suspicious of. Though I had seen nothing in his posts to indicate Seerness as well, which makes me think we must have some extremely clever wolves.

Which brings me onto the thought I had while reading through this. Saucepan Man has cleared himself via Jack's words. In terms of associations I would be looking at Sauce and morm.

[The Saucepan Man]

If this is how [Wayne] will be in our plight I think we're better off without himNot if 'e be gifted ...

Saucepan Man has cleared himself via Jack's words.Well, course I'm satisfied of me own innocence. But, as I've made clear, I don't expect anyone else to take it for granted. I do believe that Jack dreamed of me and left a hint should he die. Whether you believe that or not 's up to you.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The mos' suspishus looks to be Rune or Wilwarin. The tied votin' between Spawn, Formendacil, an' Wayne. I shuld surspect one of these wus tryin' to create as much trouble for us innocents at the end on who to chose, an' 'opin we dun pick der buddy. But, it didn't wurk out as planned. So, right now my top surspects are:

I dont get it earlyer in your post you say that me and Hobly is your 2 main suspectsm why the change? Seems a bit odd.

Yes I did make it a tie and when I did so I realised it might seem a bit wolfish. Anyhow I still belive it was the right ting to do.

1. Because the tie was allready there, my vote did not create any possibilety of a dubbel lynch. (exept if no one votet after me) May I remind you that I did not vote 10. min. before time but an hour, plenty of time for people to change the outcome.

2. As Borormir says I wantet to create other possibeltys than just, Spawn and Formendacil as they both seemed non-wolfish to me.

3. I fully share Lhuna's view of wayne!

Mister Wayne - a hiding wolf, or an innocent with really nothing to say? If this is how he will be in our plight I think we're better off without him; if he's innocent, at least he's one less to think about.

to this Sauce Pan said:
Not if 'e be gifted ...

Just brilliant. . .

We dont know! and will never know until the giftet are dead. Not even if they give us 1000 clues can we know, it could just as well be a wolf trying to stay alive. Plus Wayne will never be able to give us those clues if does not change and how can the wolves not figure out if he does that?

I just can't see Wayne beeing of any use in the village. He will allways be a souce of doubt, I know I will never be sure about him. (unless somting drastic happens)

I will return with more suspisions and accusations later. (It is way more fun than having to defend your self)

[Boromir88]

I'm not sure you explained. Do you care to?
I sed I wus unsure 'bout you cus of your vote. The others on the lis' cus they aint talkin' a lot. But I said these votes looks suspishus, and one may possibly be a wulf.
The group I'm interested in, is the ones that voted after Fordim put Spawn up by two.

mormegil (for Gurthang)
Kath (for Fordim)
Holby (for Jack)
Rune (for Wayne)
Wilwarin (for Formendacil)
So, therefur I'm unsure 'bout you.

If anyone “turned” on Spawn at the end, it was Boromir88.
I dun surspect Spawn through mos' of the day yesturday, but before I voted, I did explain my reasonin'. I wanted to vote fur my biggest surspect (Holby), but there were seven peeple voted fur so far, so logical tells us one was prolly a wulf. I dun think why a big hype was aroun' Formendacil. Wayne 'as disappeared, but quietness aint no sign of a wulf. So, I said I would vote for Spawn (who above all the peeple with the multiple votes wus the mos' suspishus) or vote fur sumone else with one vote.

Also, 'for I voted I wanted to make sure the othuh voters were there, cus, it was gettin' close and I dun wanna end it in a tie. When I 'eard Aiwendil there, and 'e sed 'e wuld vote fur Spawn, I decided too too. (An' I tell you lucky I did, or we may 'ave killed Formen yesturday)

Now I as' you, and this may make me surspected, but I dun care. If yous peeple werent so busy talkin' 'bout all these cunnin' wolf tricks, you might be catchin' the real perpetrators who are obvious wulfs. Sumtimes da answers are sittin' right in front of yur faces, but you cant see 'em, cus your too concentrated on sumone trickin' you.

But, dis may get me surspected...if I wus a wulf, and knowin' Aiwendil wus votin' fur Spawn, why the 'eck wuld I vote fur her, wid Formendacil up by one vote at the time?

No, throw out all this nonsense about wulves tryin' to throw a blanket over our eyes. The only peeple throwin' blanket over our eyes, is you durn peeple that try to think up these crazy theories.

If we's a gonna fin' a wulf we got to do process of 'limination. We gotta narrow down as many peeple that we gotta pick frum. It's easy fur the wulves, cus they already know, but fur innocents we gotta narrow sum peeple down. Now, like Panman, based on votin', or jus' cus they dun seem suspishus, these peeple seem innocent, an' we shuldnt consider votin' fur today.

Formendacil
Fordim
Panman
Aiwendil

Now, sum more 'ere. Sir Fordim brings up Gurthang, and the only thing that troubles me with Gurthang is you said you were tryin' to protect the Seer. This dun make sense, cus yur basically tellin' the wulves..."HEY I'M NOT THE SEER, BUT I'M TRYIN' TO LOOK LIKE IT SO KILL ME". Sorry, sir, but that aint gonna wurk, whys the wulves kills you if you admit yur not the seer, but admit ur tryin' to look like 'im? Looks pretty suspishus.

Also, a not on Wilwa. See I wuld tend to agree with Panman, and think why wuld a wulf make such an open mistake an' break the tie, for sumone who seems innocent? Well, this does look like quite a big slip up fur a wulf. But, I mus' ask Panman, per'aps Wilwa dun anticipate the death of Spawn, why should she if da peeple lef' to vote were me, Aiwendil, and Panman, and nun of us really shewed big interes' in lynchin' Spawn? So, per'aps Wilwa felt it was a safe vote, an' that Spawn wusnt gonna be lynched.

'Owever, I think right now Rune looks the mos' suspishus, cus 'e tied everythin' up. And no matter wut 'appens, on who's lynched, it looks like a decently safe vote fur a wulf. So, Rune right now is my biggest surspect still.

[Boromir88]

I dont get it earlyer in your post you say that me and Hobly is your 2 main suspectsm why the change? Seems a bit odd.
I' alreadin' explained the reasin' me tinks our unionboss needs to take reedin' classes agin.

Now, I know I've been pretty suspishus of Holby, but I will wait and see sum more, cus I realized she voted fur Jack. This could be a set up by the wolves, but per'aps not, I'll wait fur now.

I mark it as a set up by the wulves.

Wulves like to do a few things.

1) Keep peeple alive who are the main surspects. As long as the 'ave the peeple who are the main surspects aroun' it makes findin' a wulf 'arder.

2) Set peeple up. They like to make it seem sum peeple as bein' more suspishus (say by killin' the person that sumone else voted fur). And that's what I think the case with Holby is (as of right now), she was set up. The wulves killed the person she voted fur to make 'er look mor' suspishus.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The only explaination you give is that Wilwa createt a tie and Hobly votet Jack. . .
Later you realise that you have made a mistake and Wilwa broke the tie, you do how ever maintain her as a chief suspect only second to me. Why? You dont tell us.


At the least we can conclude that allthough you do write legthy post's and seem to think thing's throug, you suspicions is build on sand. (so are mine, by the way)

[WaynetheGoblin]

Well I just woke up from my long sleep. Lhuna is the most suspicous to me her early vote is weird. I will vote some time at four and probably for Lhuna I will be going to school now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Just brilliant. . .

We dont know! and will never know until the giftet are dead ... Plus Wayne will never be able to give us those clues if does not change and how can the wolves not figure out if he does that?

I just can't see Wayne beeing of any use in the village. He will allways be a souce of doubt, I know I will never be sure about him.

I most certainly agrees that young Wayne is unhelpful. Point is, that’s ‘is way. ‘E’d be unhelpful whether ‘e was a Wolf, a gifted or an ordinary innocent, d’you see? So him not sayin’ much just don't seem to me a good enough reason to vote for him, not just yet anyways. And, by the by, ‘e doesn’t need to give us clues if ‘e is a remaining gifted. ‘E just needs to do ‘is job when the time comes.

...if I wus a wulf, and knowin' Aiwendil wus votin' fur Spawn, why the 'eck wuld I vote fur her, wid Formendacil up by one vote at the time?And that, my friend, is why you’re on me “innocent for now” list for the time being. But I remain wary that it’s sommet a Wolf might do to gain the village’s trust.

So, per'aps Wilwa felt it was a safe vote, an' that Spawn wusnt gonna be lynched.Na, it seemed clear that Aiwendil was likely to vote fer Spawn. Besides, the only other likely candidate for lynching at that stage was Formendacil and, if ‘e is innocent, ‘er vote would have made 'er look just as suspicious if ‘e was lynched.

Lhuna is the most suspicous to me her early vote is weird. I will vote some time at four and probably for Lhuna ...Communicative as ever, eh Wayne me boy? ;) Anyone care to explain time zones to the lad?

[Holbytlass]

Well, if all eyes would have been drawn, then it would have worked. Meaning that if both the Ranger and the Wolves would have believed me, then no one would have been killed. Also, I was kind of assuming that the Seer wouldn't be leaving hints this early. Obviously, I was wrong on all counts.
An explanation, but what doesn't sit right with me is that at the end Gurthang comes right out and proclaims to be the seer. Just think what would happen today if the wolves hadn't got Jack last night. Jack, the true seer, would have to decide to reveal himself or not.

If Jack did, then we'd all be deciding to lynch Gurthang or him, either way Jack would be dead by next day (lynch or attack).

If Jack didn't reveal himself, then he knows we'd all be following Gurthang's lead and would lynch at least one innocent.

Gurthang, it's one thing to hint and try to draw wolves' attention from the gifted. It's another thing when actions corner the gifted into revealing themselves and be at the mercy of the wolves, especially the seer.

top suspects
Gurthang
Aiwendil

[Gurthang]

An explanation, but what doesn't sit right with me is that at the end Gurthang comes right out and proclaims to be the seer. Just think what would happen today if the wolves hadn't got Jack last night. Jack, the true seer, would have to decide to reveal himself or not.

If Jack did, then we'd all be deciding to lynch Gurthang or him, either way Jack would be dead by next day (lynch or attack).

If Jack didn't reveal himself, then he knows we'd all be following Gurthang's lead and would lynch at least one innocent.

Gurthang, it's one thing to hint and try to draw wolves' attention from the gifted. It's another thing when actions corner the gifted into revealing themselves and be at the mercy of the wolves, especially the seer.

top suspects
Gurthang
Aiwendil

Good thoughts, but they are wrong.

First, If I had been killed, thus saving the Seer, it would have been obvious that I was not the Seer.

Also, for what it's worth, I was planning on ending my scheme today no matter what. You are absolutely correct that I could not rationally continue to call myself the Seer when I'm not. Had I survived the night, and Jack not have been killed, the first thing I would have done was explain that I was not the Seer and say why.

I'd also note that I 'revealed' right at the end of the Day so that there was no chance that Jack could come out and refute my psuedo-claim.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

My oh my oh my…but things are getting interesting. Much as I need to earn a living, I think those oysters will have to stay a-waiting a bit longer as the situation here seems dire and I wants to try and do something about it.

Seems to me that there’s a number of things to consider in voting today:

1) Who is more likely than others to be a wolf? This is a little less difficult than it was yesterday, but still not at t’all an easy task, I fear. The person we lynch this DAY is still more than likely to be an innocent than not. Which leads me to point number…

2) Which innocents could we more easily afford to lose? A horrific thought, and one that I’m not all that easy a-making out in the open, but as there’s some already who are thinking this way, I feel a bit more comfortable about it. Let’s face it: there are some hereabouts who are either wolves, or innocents who are not helping. If it comes right down to a vote between two people about whom I’m equally suspicious, but one is clearly not as helpful as another, I would vote for the less helpful one. I hopes as that doesn’t make me seem bloody-minded or callous – but I am, after all, a pearl diver and more used to dealing with the hard shells of oysters than the softer bellies of people!

3) Which people would make the most dangerous wolves? This is an idea that may not make much sense, but I’ll do my best. There are some hereabouts who already seem to have been given suits of armour that would seem to guarantee their innocence – more interesting it seems to me that these folk are the ones as have been spending the DAY giving those suits of armour to each other…. Just as we needs to think about which innocent we can afford to lose, we needs to think about which folk would make the most dangerous wolves to keep around. I’m’s not suggesting that we lynch a person simply because they look too innocent, or are making too much sense – just that if I were a smart and canny wolf, the first thing I would try to do is make sure I looked like a bright and canny innocent…

So where’s that get me? Not all that much further along, I admit it. But mayhap it can help me a slight bit. There’s no math here, no perfect solution, so don’t think that what I’m about to do is supposed to be that. But it’s a way of accounting for things after a manner. I’m a-going to go through each of the three points and give folk one point each just to see who might add up to the most….

1) Who is more likely than others to be a wolf?

Gurthang
Rune
Wayne
Lhuna

2) Which innocents could we more easily afford to lose?

Gurthang
Rune
Wayne

3) Which people would make the most dangerous wolves?

Aiwendil
Boromir88
Saucepan Man

Now afore ye all begin to ask me for my reasons, I’ll just say read my posts from before this one and you’ll see that I makes these points elsewhere…and a lot of other folk, I know, are making the same kinds of noises.

So by my counting the three as have two points each are:

Gurthang
Rune
Wayne

[Holbytlass]

Also, for what it's worth, I was planning on ending my scheme today no matter what. You are absolutely correct that I could not rationally continue to call myself the Seer when I'm not. Had I survived the night, and Jack not have been killed, the first thing I would have done was explain that I was not the Seer and say why.

I'd also note that I 'revealed' right at the end of the Day so that there was no chance that Jack could come out and refute my psuedo-claim.
But Gurthang didn't even come on to post for about 5 1/2 hours! IF Jack had not been killed, that would be a long time for him to debate and most likely reveal himself for the sake of the village. Of course I see why Gurthang would want to confuse the wolves, but why would he want to confuse the village?


Fordim, I see where you are probably going to get alot of slack for your idea, but I think you are just being brave and putting down what we (definetly me) are probably thinking.

[Aiwendil]

Meseems some of you are putting Wilwarin out of mind too hastily. The strongest thing, after all, that has been said in her defence is that her vote was too obviously wolf-like!

I think that a reasonable approach to analyzing a person's actions is as follows. First, assume that person is a wolf. Consider his or her behaviour and ask yourself how likely it is that a wolf would act that way. Now, assume the person is innocent. Ask yourself how likely it is that an innocent would act that way. Then compare your results. The key, you understand, is that what matters is not just how wolf-like one's behaviour is; what matters is whether one's behaviour is more likely for an innocent or for a wolf.

Now take Wilwarin. How likely is it that a wolf would vote for Formendacil, breaking the three-way tie? I think The Saucepan Man is right in saying that a wolf would be hesitant to do so. On the other hand, it seems to me that there's also a fair chance a wolf would take the chance and try to save Spawn, perhaps even counting on the obviousness of the maneuver to clear her.

Now, how likely is her behaviour for an innocent? What was so suspicious about Formendacil? It's true that Jack voted the same way, which indicates that there's some chance an innocent would vote that way. Nonetheless, it looks to me to be a move much more likely for a wolf (a daring wolf) than for an innocent.

That was perhaps a long-winded way of saying a simple thing, but I think that my schema for analyzing a person's behaviour is worth laying out.

The other suspicious looking character at this point is, if you ask me, Rune. He escaped my notice earlier because I was looking so intently at the strange anti-Formendacil party. But his vote for Wayne looks to me more likely as a wolvish move than an innocent one. If the general consensus is that Wilwarin should not be lynched toDAY, I would probably be amenable to the idea of lynching Wayne, unless there are some new developments.

[mormegil]

There has been some decent discussion today but I would like to recommend a little plan that may or may not put some heat on our wolves. We should take about 3 to 4 of the people who are viewed as most suspicious and get votes for them, possibly even a 3 way tie. We have a decent chance of selecting one wolf in that group and then we can see how some react and how the remaining votes are cast. It might be a logistical problem getting it organized because we have no known innocents but it might be worth a shot.

At the top of my list is (in no order)
Wilwa
Rune
Formendacil

Just a quick idea for consideration and it should either be quickly accepted or quickly dismissed I don't want to spend the remaining portion of the day wasted on debating it.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

An interesting tactic morm but I'm not sure it will really work. First, organising it would be really tough. Second, to outsmart it the wolves would simply need to vote early and spread their votes among those three, leaving the 'hot seat' of tie-breaking to innocents. Third, while the odds are good there's a wolf in that pack it's not guaranteed. Fourth, any mistake in planning would open the chance of a double-lynching. Fifth, as you yourself admit the only useful information it would glean would be from looking at the last people to vote, but perhaps those people voted late because they could not get on to post earlier in the day.

Sorry -- I know it may look like I'm trashing your idea, but that's not really it at t'all. As I hope has been clear from the get-go, I'm all for group effort directed against the wolves, and I likes the idea of putting them in the hot-seat...I'm just not sure that this here is the best way of a-doing it.

[Holbytlass]

I disagree also, there are too many factors of people's time and situations that would look wolfish in a one day forced plan. Wolves are generally caught by their voting records over a period of DAYS.

[Formendacil]

A vote for Spawn was never really a “safe” Wolfish vote, given the close nature of the voting. And it seems to me that both Aiwendil and Boromir88 were aware of the likelihood that the other would vote for Spawn when they voted.

True enough, I suppose. All the same, past experience should tell most of us that Wolves can do some very unlikely things- both rational and irrational.

However, looking at these three, none of them is really leaping forward as a potential Wolf, although I still think it likely that one of them could be hiding in there. And, since I said I would, I'll do some analysis on them...

Starting in alphabetical order...

Aiwendil has, as expected of someone with his well-known intellect, blended into the game quite well. He's kept a fairly low profile, staying out of the spotlight, while being present enough and thoughtful enough to not be considered "quiet". He could be a quiet, clever, risk-taking wolf, or he could be the innocent he seems to be.

Boromir88 has amused/annoyed us with his "dialectial differences" so far in the game- which could be a simple innocent's way of having fun, or a clever wolf's distracting ploy. There's a lot of thoughtful, serious content in his posts, but the first thing one gets out them is his dropped "g"s and his "wulves". And a clever ploy it would be, for most roleplaying players of Werewolf tend to be innocents- at least in the games I've played.

Wilwa has kept a pretty low profile this game- which could be a Werewolf lying low while more vocal innocents capture all the attention, or it could be the woes of a school-aged girl, or it could be the growing experience of a Werewolf player (I remember my steadfast conviction in her Werewolfishness a few games ago, totally unproven, that would likely not have happened had she played a more quiet, serious hand). Whether this proves Werewolfishness or not, I am clueless.

As I said, SPM is right that none of the three are really suspicious. However, I think I am justified in saying that any of the three COULD be Werewolves.

Oh, and to answer a question that Aiwendil had:

What was so suspicious about Formendacil?

Since Day 1 has no past evidence to go off of, the voting is more truly random than on any of the subsequent days. I guess proclaiming oneself a Werewolf (even in sarcasm) is as a good an excuse as any to vote for someone... :rolleyes:

[Holbytlass]

I dismiss Morm's plan, there are too many factors in people's lives that could be seen as wolfish in a one day forced vote. Generally, wolves are caught by their voting record over a period of days.

[The Saucepan Man]

There are some hereabouts who already seem to have been given suits of armour that would seem to guarantee their innocence ...I bain’t regarding anyone’s innocence as guaranteed. But I am sticking with me method of narrowing the field down by discounting, for present purposes, those who seem to me to be least guilty. I listed them earlier. I don’t deny that there may be a Wolf among ‘em, but it’s quite possible there ain’t.

As for the others (among whom I am sure there is at least one Wolf and quite possibly two):

Gurthang: Now ‘e’s explained ‘isself a bit more fully, I can see that there is some sense in what ‘e says. But, if ‘e was tryin’ to protect the Seer, ‘e made a pretty ham-fisted job of it. ‘Tis possible ‘is intentions were good, but Mistress Holby makes some good points against ‘im. So I still ‘ave my eye on ‘im. Earlier, I thought ‘e might be a good candidate for Cobbler, but I reckon a Cobbler would bide ‘is time a bit longer afore trying to spread confusion.

Kath: Bain’t said much, but what she ‘as said ‘as involved twistin’ words to suggest they mean sommet which they don’t. She did it yesterday with Jack and she done the same thing today with me (see #98 and my response at #99). ‘Er vote yesterday is mildly suspicious, being as it widened the field with Spawn on 2 votes. Claims not to ‘ave spotted the clues to young Jack’s Seerishness, which may well be true (I didn’t misself ‘til after I learned of his death), but it seems slightly Wolfish to make a point of it. Other than commenting on mormegil’s and my opinion that Jack dreamed of me, has made no accusations today, which may suggest that she is trying to give as little away as possible.

Lhunadarwen: Another who claims not to have spotted the Seer clues (as to which see me comments above with regard to Kath). I found ‘er comments about Wayne slightly worrying since, as I pointed out earlier, ‘tis ‘is way to say little, and we shouldn’t do away with ‘im on account of that alone – not just yet, anyways. Other than that, not much to go on. I don’t regard her early vote as particularly suspicious, as there is good reason for it.

Mormegil: ‘Is vote yesterday is mildly suspicious, for the same reason that Kath’s vote is. ‘E seems to be ‘elpful ‘n all, but the very fact that there is little to pin ‘im down on concerns me slightly. Still, I can’t see any solid grounds for voting for him. There be a few points as I’d like ‘im to explain, though, which I will come to in a mo’.

Rune: There is sommet not quite right about our union boss, and I bain’t just talkin’ ‘bout ‘is troublesome political views. ‘Is vote yesterday is more than slightly suspicious. As others ‘ave said, it created a three-way tie and might be seen as a way of lessenin’ the chances of Spawn bein’ lynched. Some’ow, ‘is comments today seem overly defensive to me, and ‘e’s made no accusations whatsoever, as far as I can see, other than to support Lhuna’s comments ‘bout Wayne. Nor ‘as ‘e said much that I would regard as helpful in tryin’ to track down these ‘ere Wolves. If anyone is tryin’ to stay uncontroversial and not say ought which might be used against ‘im (aka tryin’ to fly unner the radar), ‘tis Rune. An’ ‘e too claims not to ‘ave spotted the Seer clues (as to which, see me comments on Kath). Taken separately, none of these points mean very much. But they do all add up in me mind to give me a bad feelin’ ‘bout ‘im.

Wayne: What can I say? Wayne’s Wayne an’ ‘e don’t change. ‘E could be a Wolf, but there’s not a lot to go on other than ‘is continuin’ tit-fer-tat against Lhuna. A day may come when I will vote for Wayne, when it’s a choice between ‘im an’ those I regard as less suspicious, but ‘tis not this day. I’m prepared to give ‘im the benefit of the doubt for now.

All of which means that I’ve narrowed down me suspects, for today at least, to three: Gurthang, Kath and Rune.

Now, Master mormegil, a few questions if you don’t mind. You’ve outlined yer suspicions ‘bout Wilwa before and I understand ‘em, even if I don’t agree with ‘em. But I am unclear as to why Rune and Formen now feature among your top suspects. Would you care to explain why you suspect ‘em?

There has been some decent discussion today but I would like to recommend a little plan that may or may not put some heat on our wolves.I can’t see too much difference betwixt yer plan and what’s likely to ‘appen in practice anyways. Those who are seen as most suspicious will accumulate votes and we can see ‘ow those who vote later react. How is your plan any different? Mayhaps you are just suggestin’ that we should be organisin’ a shortlist of candidates. But, if that be the case, ‘ow do you suggest that shortlist be selected? Surely it would be open to manipulation by our two remaining Wolves and yon Cobbler.

And now, ‘aving seen Fordim’s (de)constructive comments on yer plan, I find misself in agreement with ‘im.

I will most probably vote near the deadline again, as is my wont. But, if you're after finding out who I am most suspicious of, well I’ve named ‘em above.

[mormegil]

Now, Master mormegil, a few questions if you don’t mind. You’ve outlined yer suspicions ‘bout Wilwa before and I understand ‘em, even if I don’t agree with ‘em. But I am unclear as to why Rune and Formen now feature among your top suspects. Would you care to explain why you suspect ‘em?

Now Saucie you can't really expect me to tell you everything I think and don't. Often times I suspect some I don't list and one or two on my lists I might not suspect as much. I'll leave it at that though one person I meant to add to that list was Gurthang. He's just not sitting right with me.

In regards to Formendacil I will say this, in years as a repairmen I've met a lot of people and learned a lot of things not related to repairmanship so I've picked up a bit of Werewolf Lore in my day. I learned of a subterfuge that can be successfully implemented it's affectionately called The Fea. I am rather familar with this approach, more so than all of you expect maybe our local bum, and what Formendacil did on Day 1 by claiming to be a wolf is a text book move for The Fea. So I will not write him off though I did say on day one it seemed to be sarcastic rhetoric. I'm still watching him and hoping for him to say a bit more so I can either be convinced of his innocence of his guilt.

Oh and consider my plan to be off the table. No offense was taken by any who were critical of it. I didn't know if it would work myself, but I wanted to present it anyway.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

As the time I will have available to engage in this here debate is coming to a close in the next couple of hours (I will have to vote by no later than 4:30 EST) I suppose as I have to start thinking about where to cast that vote. I was a-hoping that there might be some voting action to begin with but so far there’s only been the one cast by Lhuna for Kath.

Well, to be blunt and honest, I still don’t have a good read on who the wolves may be, but that’s to be expected I suppose after only two DAYs. So’s I suppose I’ll have to give it me best shot using what criteria I have:

1. Good chance of being a wolf, based on votes and actions this DAY as argued for by other folk
2. Not too great a loss if innocent
3. May be innocent, but if a wolf, far too dangerous to leave alive
4. Just seems to be acting wolfishly, either because:
4.1 Making unfounded accusations
4.2 Carefully controlling the conversation with occasional comments that implicate without committing
4.3 Suggesting plans of action that I ain’t so sure will work out
4.4 Being too blasted quiet
4.5. Being too blasted noisy

Aiwendil: 3, 4.2 (2)

Boromir88: 3, 4.2 (2)

Fordim Hedgethistle: I ain’t no wolf. (0)

Formendacil: 3, 4.4 (2)

Gurthang: 1, 2, 4.1, 4.3, 4.5 (5)

Holbytlass: 1, 2, 4.2 (3)

Kath: 4.1, 4.4 (2)

Lhunardawen: 1, 2, 4.1 (3)

Mormegil: 1, 4.3, 4.5 (3)

Rune Son of Bjarne: 1, 2, 4.4 (3)

The Saucepan Man: 1, 3, 4.2, 4.5 (4)

WaynetheGoblin: 1, 2, 4.4 (3)

Wilwarin538: 1, 4.4 (2)

Well, I have to admit that I’m surprised that The Man with the Pan for Sauce is in second place! I would have thought that he would be much lower down the list, so either me method is suspect (which I hope it ain’t as it’s all I’ve got right now) or I really do needs to keep an eye on that feller.

I’m also surprised by the number of folk who’ve scored threes: Wayne, Rune, morm, Lhuna and Holby

But there’s only as one there that’s got five points agin him: Gurthang. I ain’t going to vote yet, not yet I ain’t – I want to give it the last hour that I have…

[Gurthang]

But Gurthang didn't even come on to post for about 5 1/2 hours! IF Jack had not been killed, that would be a long time for him to debate and most likely reveal himself for the sake of the village.

Yes, you have me at that. I wasn't able to come and say my piece nearly as early as I had hoped.

Yet, I would say that Jack wasn't a fool. I believe he would have waited to see if I tried to lead the village. If I would have started saying so and so's a wolf, then he would have probably come out and put a stop to it. Also, I think he would have waited to see if I continued my ploy or if anyone was even willing to follow me. If I proclaimed myself as Seer and then either a) did nothing or b) nobody believed or listened to me, then he would have had no reason to come out. I think he would have been quite patient in the situation.

Although, that all is just conjecture, and it seems that Fordim now deems me completely expendable(or maybe even a wolf). Which probably means he's ignoring everything I say.

[mormegil]

Fordim 1, 3, 4.2, and 4.5 (4)

Though I find it interesting that we can combine 1 and 3

[Aiwendil]

Fordim: As fond as I am of quantitative methods, I'd hesitate before putting faith in your system. Why? Two reasons:

1. I think it undervalues your point number 1. Wolves will be willing to say anything; it seems to me that their voting is a much more reliable signal.

2. It overvalues your point 4, since it gives up to 5 points for vague "just seeming to act wolfishly" behaviour.

I said earlier that I'm inclined to think Gurthang is the Cobbler, and I remain so inclined. Maybe I'm being obtuse.

I will probably vote fairly late again, as I'll be available until the end of the DAY and I want to stay on top of any new developments. But just to let people know where I stand, I am in favour of lynching either Rune or Wilwarin today. Since few seem to agree about Wilwarin, I will probably end up voting for Rune.

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post with Gurthang and Mormegil.

Mormegil - why do you put Fordim down for 1? His vote yesterday was for Spawn.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Fordim: As fond as I am of quantitative methods, I'd hesitate before putting faith in your system. Why? Two reasons:

1. I think it undervalues your point number 1. Wolves will be willing to say anything; it seems to me that their voting is a much more reliable signal.

2. It overvalues your point 4, since it gives up to 5 points for vague "just seeming to act wolfishly" behaviour.

I said earlier that I'm inclined to think Gurthang is the Cobbler, and I remain so inclined. Maybe I'm being obtuse.

I will probably vote fairly late again, as I'll be available until the end of the DAY and I want to stay on top of any new developments. But just to let people know where I stand, I am in favour of lynching either Rune or Wilwarin today. Since few seem to agree about Wilwarin, I will probably end up voting for Rune.

Fair 'nuf Aiwendil m'lad -- in particular your point about voting over voicing, but as yet there's not a lot of the former, and too much of the latter -- but please bear in mind, as I'm not suggesting that this method be THE Method as everyone uses: I'm just trying to lay out as clearly as I can how I'm thinking for myself. This model will no doubt change in coming DAYS (assuming and hoping, that is, that I lives to see them).

Fordim 1, 3, 4.2, and 4.5 (4)

Fair 'nuf mormegil me boyo, but so far as I'm using my system 1 and 3 probably can't be combined -- but you can view things as you want to makes up your own mind.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have to admit that I’m surprised that The Man with the Pan for Sauce is in second place!Or mayhaps it's 'cos you engineered it that way Master Hedgethistle. And mayhaps you'd care to explain why you assigned yer nummer 1. to me.

As fer you, I'd assign you 3, 4.1 (based on the above), 4.2, 4.3 and 4.5, giving you 5 points. Yet I still think ye more likely innocent than guilty. I just reckon it's yer system as is up the creek.

I will most probably vote near the deadline again, as is my wont.I've thought this over and I've changed me mind. I reckon I'm gonna vote early today. Normalwise, I like to 'ang around at the deadline to try to stop any ties. But I'll leave that to someone else today, so's me vote will at least count for sommet. As I said in me previous post, and fer the reasons stated there, I've a bad feelin' 'bout Rune. And the more I think on't, the badder me feelin' 'bout 'im gets. So:

++RUNE SON OF BJARNE

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Or mayhaps it's 'cos you engineered it that way Master Hedgethistle. And mayhaps you'd care to explain why you assigned yer nummer 1. to me.

Egads me good Harbour Master ye're quite right to have caught me on this! The number 1 for you there was a mistake plain and simple, so's I'll erase that now and place ye down at 3 points with that other group -- for all the peace of mind that'll give me, as I first gave you the 1 based on the suspicions I myself voiced against you this morning -- which I then doubled up again with my numbers 4... :eek:

Methinks that maybe the system is not perfect -- but likes I said when I posted it, it's not meant to be perfect and it's all I've got right now....

[mormegil]

The Saucepan Man: 1, 3, 4.2, 4.5 (4)

Aiwendil and Fordim, this is why I gave Fordim a 1 and 3. I notice that it has been pointed out to you Fordim and I would agree and lower you to a three by removing 1 but I'm not putting you out of my sights though.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Aiwendil and Fordim, this is why I gave Fordim a 1 and 3. I notice that it has been pointed out to you Fordim and I would agree and lower you to a three by removing 1 but I'm not putting you out of my sights though.

Nor I you mormy -- to the glee of wolves everywhere I'm sure!!

I know I'm not a wolf, and I'm pretty blasted sure you're not a wolf, and I'm relatively sure that Saucy's not a wolf, and I'm almost entirely sure that Aiwendil is not a wolf and yet here we all are, a-going around and around with each other....

Still and all, I think it's probably just talk right now, and prudent talk at that -- it's the votes as will tell the real story...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Egads! Time has flown! I have to cast me vote now, and I won't be able to look in again until later...well...I might be able to take a peak, but my time with chatting is over so...

++GURTHANG

[Boromir88]

I shall also most likely vote fur Rune today, unless if sumthin' dramatically changes.

Ok, so 'eres who I've been seein' as the main "talk of the day" so to say.
Rune
Wilwarin
Wayne
Gurthang

Rune, I've explained my suspishuns on 'im earlier today, and 'es done nuttin' to sugges' anythin' different. And in response as to why Wilwa was secon' on my list, Rune. Cus, in breakin' the tie 'tween Spawn, Formendacil, and Wayne, by votin' for Formendacil it looks like she's tryin' to save Spawn. Thats why 'er vote is suspishus an' she's secon' be'ind you.

Wilwarin, I've already talked 'bout. In response to sumthin' Panman said...
Na, it seemed clear that Aiwendil was likely to vote fer Spawn. Besides, the only other likely candidate for lynching at that stage was Formendacil and, if ‘e is innocent, ‘er vote would have made 'er look just as suspicious if ‘e was lynched.
True, tis true, but bein' as it wus Day 1, and most peeple ('sides the wolves) were shootin' in the dark with their votes. So, I imagine a wulf culd easily 'scape gettin' outta that jam if Formendacil was lynched and turned out to be an innocent.

Wayne an' Gurthang just seem to be makin' it difficult fur evryone to git a 'old on. I will say, the wulves (if they aint wulves) will keep these two around, jus' cus they cause so much controversy amongst the innocence. They aint gonna kill 'em in the night, so we eider 'ave to put up with 'em, or lynch 'em.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am sorry I have not been around today, but that is just the way things ended up.

Althoug I am not flattered by the things said of me, I can surdenly understand most of them. I will try to make up for my absence in my next posts, but I will have to make some analysing first.

I should be online from now until night starts.


- Rune

[Gurthang]

Now I as' you, and this may make me surspected, but I dun care. If yous peeple werent so busy talkin' 'bout all these cunnin' wolf tricks, you might be catchin' the real perpetrators who are obvious wulfs. Sumtimes da answers are sittin' right in front of yur faces, but you cant see 'em, cus your too concentrated on sumone trickin' you.

But, dis may get me surspected...if I wus a wulf, and knowin' Aiwendil wus votin' fur Spawn, why the 'eck wuld I vote fur her, wid Formendacil up by one vote at the time?

No, throw out all this nonsense about wulves tryin' to throw a blanket over our eyes. The only peeple throwin' blanket over our eyes, is you durn peeple that try to think up these crazy theories.

Okay, now Boromir's got me looking at him. In this post, he says don't try to make up schemes that wolves might do; it will just confuse us. Makes sense to me. But then he starts putting out schemes, not entirely unlike the ones he just denounced.

Wulves like to do a few things.

1) Keep peeple alive who are the main surspects. As long as the 'ave the peeple who are the main surspects aroun' it makes findin' a wulf 'arder.

2) Set peeple up. They like to make it seem sum peeple as bein' more suspishus (say by killin' the person that sumone else voted fur). And that's what I think the case with Holby is (as of right now), she was set up. The wulves killed the person she voted fur to make 'er look mor' suspishus.

Also note that these posts were back-to-back and only 10 minutes apart. That's quick shifting, Boromir.

Wilwa is still about the same for me, her vote yesterday seems wolfish. That doesn't mean she is, but it looks that way regardless.

And now Formendacil has added to my suspicion. He posted about three people, yet just listed possibilities, never telling which he thought. Just this or that, not very helpful to me.

Holbytlass is 95% innocent in my eyes. All of her arguments (against me :rolleyes: ) seem sound and reasonable, despite their falseness. Master Saucepan I (mostly) believe to be innocent, too, because it makes sense that Jack would dream of him. And Aiwendil's posts just keep astounding me with how reasonable they are. I especially like his how an innocent would act vs. how a wolf would act.

So, in everpopular list format(no order):

Likely innocents:
Holbytlass
Master Saucepan
Aiwendil

Suspect:
Wilwarin
Formendacil
Boromir


On a completely other tangent, Fordim's lists and numbers just keep coming and coming, and then going in circles. I don't really see it as a wolvish plot, but it just seems to be taking up space. Cobbler jumps to mind.

[Gurthang]

I should be online from now until night starts.

Call me a nit-picker or whatever, but that just sounds too strange not to say something about. Why would you say 'until night starts'? Shouldn't it be 'until Day ends'?

I say that because an innocent would only care about Days, because that's the only time they are able to be active. A wolf, on the other hand, will be active at night, so will of course be anticipating the start of that phase. It seems like he's ready for night to start.

I think that those of you who suspect Rune may not be so far off. I haven't really looked at him before. I think I'll do that now.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I dicided i will not vote. It wouldent help anyone at all also I will not be posten again today.

[Boromir88]

Gurthang, that pos' you give, why it wus so close to my previous one, wus cus I 'ad crossposted with with Rune, an' wanted to respond to it.

My pos' 'ere:
Wulves like to do a few things.

1) Keep peeple alive who are the main surspects. As long as the 'ave the peeple who are the main surspects aroun' it makes findin' a wulf 'arder.

2) Set peeple up. They like to make it seem sum peeple as bein' more suspishus (say by killin' the person that sumone else voted fur). And that's what I think the case with Holby is (as of right now), she was set up. The wulves killed the person she voted fur to make 'er look mor' suspishus.

Was a response to Rune's post 'ere:
I dont get it earlyer in your post you say that me and Hobly is your 2 main suspectsm why the change? Seems a bit odd.
And it was right after my other one, cus I 'ad crossposted with 'im.

Rune wanted to know why I 'ad changed frum surspectin' 'im and Holby, to 'im and Wilwarin. An' I sed I dropped my suspishuns on Holby, cus it appears to me that the wolves are tryin' to set 'er up. That's when I splained wut wulves typically do.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am having great truble finding clues to who is a wolf and who is not, but I hope you will be accept that I am not great at finding these clues.

I can see why people (including my self) thinks Wilwarin is a wolf. She seems to be avoiding confrontation and be more or less anonymes. I don't know if I find it that incrimenating that she votet for Formendacil. Could very well be a wolf, but I dont think I will vote for her today.

I remain skeptic of Wayne and would like to make him disapier at once, but it does not seem realistic.

Gurthang is clearly the one witch confuses me the most. I would like to have him stay a while, but I might have to vote for him to save my self.

Boro I realy dont know what to think of him, it might just be the fact that he think that I have fangs that makes me look upon him with skepsis.

Aiwendil Seems to be an ordo and for now I belive in his inocens.

Saucepan Is very rational and I belive he is inocent, in fact I am very much sure.

I will try to make a post with more substance, but I am having trouble to judge people by there votes yesterday as I belive that most of them are random.

-Rune

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Call me a nit-picker or whatever, but that just sounds too strange not to say something about. Why would you say 'until night starts'? Shouldn't it be 'until Day ends'?

Nit-picker ! There I said it.

It was just chose to write it that way and gave it no thought what so ever...

To be honest it seems like your trying to frame me and save your own skin, you are either doing this because you are an wolf desperatly trying to survive or (like me) you are an inocent player who is not that skilled.

Is Gurthang Fuzzball or not ?

I cross postet with boro, wayne and gurthang earlyer.

[mormegil]

Just by way of update we have a total of 3 of 13 votes though Wayne said that he wouldn't be voting so 4 of 13 if we believe him

Lhuna voted for Kath
SpM voted for Rune
Fordim voted for Gurthang

All are worthy candidates in my opinion. I expect to see both Rune and Gurthang wait till late to vote.

But let it be known that if Wayne doesn't begin to participate a bit more this lowly repairman will be willing to get rid of the town doctor though it may cause me some pains when I hit my finger on a hammer. I don't like overly quiet people especially when there is no vote.

[Boromir88]

Watch out, yur 'bout to delve into the mind of Boro, you culd go insane. So, not includin' myself there are two wulves amongst twelve peeple (and yes sum of this is repeated frum my earlier posts, but I'm tryin' to think through before I vote, cus I 'ave to go soon).

These peeple (fur today atleast) I'm not considerin' as wulves (though one quite likely is):

Fordim
Panman
Aiwendil
Formendacil
mormegil
Lhuna
Holby
Kath

I'm a little leery 'bout puttin' Lhuna in there, cus she's on a different clock, and 'as trouble postin', with us, so we dun 'ear a lot frum 'er, but I really 'ave nuttin' to think she's a wulf right now.

So this leaves:

Wilwarin
Rune
Gurthang
Wayne

Wayne's in there cus 'es generally been up'elpful, and I agree with mormegil, unless 'e 'elps more, I will certainly be in favor of lynchin' 'im.

So, basically, I'm vascillatin' between Wilwarin, Rune, and Gurthang.

Wilwarin cus of 'er vote yesturday and I dun know where she's run off to today? But apparennly no one is relly gonna vote fur 'er today.

I'm leery 'bout castin' my vote fur either of these two, basically cus, neither one of 'em may be a wulf. But, It's my civic duty to vote, an' I'm gonna need to make a decision eventually.

Gurthangs plans just dun make sense to me, why would 'e claim to be protectin' the Seer? Since, 'e comes out and says 'e is protectin' the Seer, obviously the wulves aren't gonna be fooled by it. That just dun make sense, and 'e 'as been rather scrappy today, findin' whuteva 'e can on anybody to get suspishun away frum 'im. Though this could jus' be cus 'is neck is on the noose.

Rune, I've been surspectin' all day and I will say Gurthang's comment about the "night and day" thing does make 'im look rather fishy, and I dun think it's bein' nitpicky. I jus' find it wierd 'e refers to bein' 'ere until Night starts. Simply cus I 'avent really 'eard anyone put it that way. Then again, voting fur 'im makes me nervous cus I'm just not totally sure, and could be totally rong.

Ok, those are me thoughts, I jus' need to clear out my 'ead, now I mus' be 'eddin out. And I will vote fur:

++Rune

[Kath]

Gurthang is sitting uneasily with me today, though I think that might be due to the influence of the views of others. From the way his actions are described through the words of people like Boro he appears to be more Cobbler-ish than wolvish though.

Saucepan Man I mentioned earlier. The thing is that I have an automatic suspicion of anyone who makes a great deal of noise in the village, even though it is often the quiet ones that are the wolves (e.g. spawn).

I just don't have any real suspicions today and I don't want to make a mistaken vote like I did yesterday. I will though vote because it's necessary really and I think it does help when people use voting records to help them analyse others. So I will vote

++Wayne

Because he has declined to vote and because, to be honest, he posts even less than I am doing at the moment, he barely mentions supicions if he does at all and you can gain practically nothing from what he has said.

[Formendacil]

Formendacil: 3, 4.4 (2)

I'm quite flattered, my dear Fordhim that you think me dangerous if a wolf... Mind you, you missed the last game when I was a wolf, and botched it from Day 1, but is a flattering thought... Misguided, of course, but anyone would say that about themselves.

As for the 4.4 charge, I must confess to being guilty on that score. The heavier pressures of actually having a job and the rush of the dreaded pre-Christmas season have fallen up me... but still, that's no excuse I suppose for a mariner Numenorean in a Vala-forsaken fishing village.

And now Formendacil has added to my suspicion. He posted about three people, yet just listed possibilities, never telling which he thought. Just this or that, not very helpful to me.

What if my mind is undecided? I mean, really... if the evidence says that all of these three could be Werewolves, but quite possible aren't, then shouldn't I trust my own logic and feelings on that matter? This isn't Day 1 anymore, and there is no reason for random voting, unless I am the Cobbler and have a death wish...

And speaking of Cobblers, the temptation to vote for you, my dear Gurthang, is great, and the spirit is weak, so I shall...

Here's my reasoning: I really have no clue who the Werewolves are. There are several suspicious-looking people, but nobody who actually screams "WEREWOLF" to me. We do, however, have someone who screams "COBBLER!".

I am speaking of Gurthang, of course. His actions yesterday, and moreso today, have been very Cobblerish. And although the Cobbler is not, in and of itself, dangerous as a Werewolf is, he (or she!) is a confusing player, and just as well gotten rid of if we want to flush out the real Werewolves- which we do.

For this reason, Gurthang should, in my opinion, be voted off. Whether he is the Cobbler or not is almost immaterial, since the facts are that he has been acting a good deal like one.

And yes, I do realise that between his vote on Day 1 and his accusation against me today this may look a little like revenge. So what? Don't YOU want to kill the Werewolves' team?

++Gurthang

[mormegil]

7 of 13 (counting Wayne's no vote)

Lhuna voted for Kath
SpM voted for Rune
Fordim voted for Gurthang
Boromir voted for Rune
Kath voted for Wayne
Formendacil voted for Gurthang

Interesting Boromir gives Rune the lead and Kath doesn't further extend that lead and then Formendacil ties the votes at 2 with a vote for Gurthang.

I will continue to watch and wait.

[Gurthang]

I haven't had a chance to look at Rune like I had hoped, so I'll have to go with one of the three I named earlier.

Boro gave me an explaination, which I will count as true. He won't get my vote today for sure, and I'll be reassessing my suspicion tomorrow.

Formendacil, I just don't know. Yet Wilwarin has been left alone, and I feel that she has been suspicious, so my vote swings that way.

++Wilwarin538

I wish you all the best of luck during the night. Well, except for the wolves, I hope you have the crappiest luck ever.

[Aiwendil]

Well . . . it looks like several people are either not voting or waiting until the very last minute.

I will, as I indicated earlier, vote for:

++Rune.

As I said before, Gurthang's behaviour looks more like that of a Cobbler than that of a lycanthrope to me.

If Rune is innocent, then I think we ought to look more closely at Wilwarin; it still seems likely to me that she was trying to save Spawn.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Gurthang

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I cross postet please someone break the tie

[The Saucepan Man]

A few final thoughts.

I dicided i will not vote. It wouldent help anyone at all also I will not be posten again today.But Wayne, me lad. Not voting's just 'bout the most unhelpful thing you can do. Yer choice not to do so today counts against you, to my mind. Counts against you it does, and no mistakin'.

Gurthang is clearly the one witch confuses me the most. I would like to have him stay a while, but I might have to vote for him to save my self.And what if 'e's gifted and yer just an ordinary innocent? Not sayin 'e is like, but to try an' save yerself an' condemn 'im when there's a chance 'e may be seems mighty Wolfish to this poor befuddled old harbourmaster.

The thing is that I have an automatic suspicion of anyone who makes a great deal of noise in the village, even though it is often the quiet ones that are the wolves (e.g. spawn).Well I can't deny that I bin doin' a lot of talkin'. It's me way, d'you see? I can't 'elp misself. But I would point out that I'm not the only noisy one 'round 'ere. Why d'ye single me out for attention?

Besides, noisiness don't necessarily equate to Wolfishness, to my mind leastways.

[Aiwendil]

Alas! It looks like a cross-post may lead to a double lynch - unless someone comes along to prevent it.

[mormegil]

I'm not sure I should break the tie, because either way I vote will seem wolfish to some and innocent to others. It depends on the outcome and as far as I'm concerned they could both be guilty but it could be that Rune is a wolf and Gurthang is the cobbler.

I will try and wait for Holby and Wilwa.

[wilwarin538]

Sorry about my absence. Sorry about this post's shortnest. I'm gonna vote now:

++Gurthang

I know this post will bring me even more suspicion. I just hope you guys don't lynch me because I'll probably have a much longer post next Day.

Sorry bout my absence. :( Bye.

[Aiwendil]

Now that I think about it for a moment, a double lynch might not be the worst thing, if it's those two.

Well, it's out of my hands now . . .

[mormegil]

++Rune

I could be making a mistake but I think one of them is guilty but not sure which.

[The Saucepan Man]

Now that I think about it for a moment, a double lynch might not be the worst thing, if it's those two.I agree. Good call, Morm.

[Alcarillo]

Two werewolves remained in the village, hiding as innocent villagers after the death of their comrade. They had survived one lynching, but now would they be able to escape a double lynching? As the votes were tallied down by the docks, they breathed a sigh of relief after they escaped the noose (or the stake). Rune and Gurthang would die instead. After much debate, the method of lynching was finally decided upon: burning at the stake, in retaliation for what had happened to Jack the Seer.

And so, timber and kindling was fetched from the old warehouse by the shore, and the villagers created two great mounds of wood, each one at the end of a pier. The villagers stood with buckets of seawater at the side should anything go wrong. The strongest men in the village had beforehand wrestled and tied up Rune and Gurthang, and now they were carried, thrashing like fish out of water, out to the mounds of wood, and tied to tall poles rising out of the center of each. Blazing torches were prepared, and the Saucepan Man stood with one next to Rune's mound and Aiwendil by Gurthang's.

"Any last words, wolf?" The villagers sneered at their victims.

"Last words are for fools who haven't said enough," Rune said valiantly, holding his head proudly like a martyr, "But I would like to say this to the Trade and Commerce Guild of Arminalêth: You made a big mistake, a huge mistake, in banning me from the conference! I'll show you all! I show you, you little –"

But at this point he was interrupted by the inferno his mound of wood had become. The Saucepan Man had tossed his torch into the wood somewhere around the first "mistake", because everybody was now watching Gurthang rowing away in a small rowboat.

"Ha! I'm escaping! Ha! Hahahahahahahaha!" He paddled his oars as fast as he could. The villagers leapt into the other rowboats at the docks, dropping their pails of water and torches where they stood. They all pushed off from the shore, a tiny armada furiously chasing Gurthang to the mouth of the harbor. The rowboat containing Kath, Holby, Formendacil, and Lhuna reached him first, whacking the sides of his boat with their oars, trying to tip him into the harbor. Then Aiwendil, Fordim, Wilwa, and Morm arrived in another rowboat. They were close enough to whack Gurthang over the head, which they did mercilessly. Then, when Gurthang's boat began to sink, Boro, the Saucepan Man, and Wayne arrived. They dragged Gurthang out of his sinking boat, and Wayne confirmed that the escapee was dead. Unfortunately, he remained an ordinary villager. A glance towards Rune's roasted corpse on the shore showed that the villagers now had the blood of two innocents on their hands.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2
Rune son of Bjarne – ordinary – burnt at the stake – DAY 2
Gurthang – ordinary – slain in naval engagement – DAY 2

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor
Wilwarin538 – fiddler

It is now NIGHT 3! Villagers, go to sleep; wolves, hunter, and ranger PM me with your choices.

[Alcarillo]

The stars appeared in the night sky, and Wilwa stayed up long into the night tuning her fiddle, and occasionally playing a quiet tune. She sat by the fireplace, where a fire was lit to warm her house. She knew she should sleep, but who could while werewolves prowled the village? She played a cheerful tune to try to create a more friendly mood for that evening, but the sheer darkness and silence of the night outside made her fiddle's voice seem small indeed. Not even the crickets were chirping. True, it was winter, but the winter by the sea was usually warm enough to have some crickets. Wilwa decided that she should at least try to sleep, whether or not it would help. After all, she couldn't fear werewolves while dreaming, could she? She lay her fiddle on the mantelpiece, and doused the flames with a bucket of water, reminding her of Rune's death just hours before. She shuddered for a moment at the thought that the werewolves were one villager closer to slaughtering the village.

And as she turned towards the doorway, where the door had swung open into the darkness of a hallway, one lonesome creak creaked. It was so sudden and seemed so loud that Wilwa jumped two inches into the air, only to realize it was her own foot stepping upon a loose floorboard. Foolish me, she thought, scared by my own house. She crept out into the hallway, towards a set of stairs, illuminated by moonlight through a nearby window. There was another creak as she walked. Just me again, she thought. But this time she was wrong.

* * * * *

The villagers awoke to a beautiful sunrise. After a headcount, they groaned to learn that Wilwa was dead. They all gathered at her house and noticed that Wilwa's garden had been trampled. The door was unlocked, too. They entered, and to their horror found that Wilwa had been tied to the floor with her fiddle-strings, like the mariner Lemûw-el Gûllivah in his voyages. The bruises around her neck showed that she had been suffocated, choked by a string that lay on the floor next to her. Such a horrific death! And her fiddle suffered equally: the villagers found the parlor strewn with bits of wood, smashed to bits and ripped to pieces. Both a fine musician and a fine musical instrument were lost that night to a terrible fate. The villagers tried gluing the fiddle back together, but it was no use, and they returned back to the docks to discuss what had happened and to lynch another villager.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2
Rune son of Bjarne – ordinary – burnt at the stake – DAY 2
Gurthang – ordinary – slain in naval engagement – DAY 2
Wilwarin538 – ordinary – killed with fiddle-strings – NIGHT 3

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster
WaynetheGoblin – doctor

It is now DAY 3! Werewolves stop PMing, villagers talk and lynch one of your own.

[mormegil]

So they got Wilwa? Well I have to admit if somebody had to go I'm glad, in a way, that it was Wilwa. Hear me out now. I think very highly of our young fiddler but she was high on my list of suspects and she's not gifted so now I have one less person to worry about.

I feel horrible about the double lynching yesterday and usually I'm not inclined for such things but I thought that at least one was a wolf and the other possibly the cobbler. I feel horrible.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well that don't make no sense to me, that it don't.

Why poor Mistress Wilwa? She was suspected by many in this 'ere village as a Wolf. Only thing as makes any sense to me is the Wolves thought she was our Elf-Friend. I shall 'ave to review what she said to see if she left any clues. Though she spoke little enough yesterday.

One other idea springs to me poor befuddled mind, though. 'Er death may be an attempt to frame those who spoke out against 'er yesterday.

I must say, though, I's feelin' pretty clueless at this 'ere moment in time. Two of me main suspects 'ave turned out innocent and it's looking more n' more likely that there may be at least one Wolf among those that I previously 'ad down as likely innocents.

Looks like this is goin' to need a serious smokin' and thinkin' session. In the meantime, 'ere's yesterday's voting record, for what it may be worth:

1. Lhunadarwen votes for Kath (Kath - 1)
2. SpM votes for Rune (Kath - 1; Rune - 1)
3. Fordim votes for Gurthang (Kath - 1; Rune - 1; Gurthang - 1)
4. Boromir88 votes for Rune (Kath - 1; Rune - 2; Gurthang - 1)
5. Kath votes for Wayne (Kath - 1; Rune - 2; Gurthang - 1; Wayne - 1)
6. Formendacil votes for Gurthang (Kath - 1; Rune - 2; Gurthang - 2; Wayne - 1)
7. Gurthang votes for Wilwarin (Kath - 1; Rune - 2; Gurthang - 2; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)
8. Aiwendil votes for Rune (Kath - 1; Rune - 3; Gurthang - 2; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)
9. Rune votes for Gurthang (Kath - 1; Rune - 3; Gurthang - 3; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)
10. Wilwarin votes for Gurthang (Kath - 1; Rune - 3; Gurthang - 4; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)
11. Mormegil votes for Rune (Kath - 1; Rune - 4; Gurthang - 4; Wayne - 1; Wilwarin - 1)

Did not vote:
Wayne
Holby

[Aiwendil]

Things have gone ill indeed! I must confess that when Rune and Gurthang both turned out to be innocent, I bitterly rued the fact that I had not gone after Wilwarin with greater force that day. Now I learn that she too was innocent. I erred in all my suspicions, it seems. I am beginning to think that accusing Spawn the first day was the single worth-while deed I shall be able to achieve.

It was a very odd choice for the wolves to kill our fiddler. She was under fairly heavy suspicion and I don't doubt that, were she alive, not a few would be calling for her death. I cannot begin to fathom why the wolves would go after her.

I need to rethink everything. I'll be back with more soon.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

With all due respect to our esteemed retired tutor and harbourmaster, but a double-lynching is never anything but a terrible idea – especially so early on – as all it does is double the chances of lynching innocents, which…guess what?...we did. Sure Rune and Gurthang were not being terribly helpful and, yes, I voted for Gurthang whom I thought was a wolf, and also yes I thought that Rune had a good chance of being a wolf too…but that’s no reason go a-killing them both at once! Now we knows that neither of them is a wolf, but we’ve gone and handed the wolves a whopping great helping hand in their cause.

After yesterDAY’s antics there’s a couple of folk hereabout as I’d like to keep my eye on. First and foremost among these is master Formendacil. Interestingly, he himself explains why I’d like to keep my eye on him. When he went and voted for Gurthang he said:

And yes, I do realise that between his vote on Day 1 and his accusation against me today this may look a little like revenge.

Not revenge so much as payback, m’lad. So far, Formy’s been getting something of a free pass and the only one as has been pointing a finger at him is now lynched…and a proven innocent, I might add removing any tint of wolfishness from his accusations.

The other is Lhuna. She’s been able to keep a pretty low profile so far, for all that she’s been about and appearing to be helpful, without ever really lending a hand. Her vote for Wayne was a nice safe one in that it wouldn’t raise any eyebrows. Then she votes for Kath – pretty much the same as with Wayne. A nice vote to make for a wolf: you’re seen to be out there helping things along, but you’re voting for ‘easy’ targets, and what’s more there’s little chance they’ll be killed so there’s going to be no risk of people coming round after saying, “she voted for an innocent!”

And then there’s this:

It's a pity our Ranger had not seen this coming; he/she could have protected him. But his hints were a bit too subtle. I myself had no idea he was the Seer either; I just think some of his words were a bit weird. Thanks Mister mormegil for pointing them out and how they hint his Seership. Funnily, no offense sir but that makes me suspect you just a teeny weeny bit because you could have seen that if you and your fellow wolf (if any) were deciding who to kill last night, and just presented it to us toDay in the guise of helpfulness. But don't worry, it's just a teeny weeny bit, it's nothing to worry about.

Another nice move, if you’re a wolf: casting suspicion on another person without making outright accusations, and using that to cover her real message: “I didn’t know as Jack was the Seer – no sir, I didn’t! I sure can’t be a wolf! No way!”

But, sadly, I won’t be able to spend any time this DAY really watching these folk or others to try and figure things out. Me aunty over in the next village is not well and I have to go to her for a bit. I’ll be a-coming back, though, as I ain’t afeard of no wolves! But as I don’t want to go without having made my mark I’m a-going to cast my vote here and now for

++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

simply because there’s only two ways of seeing him: as a wolf who’s hiding by staying silent, or as an innocent who’s not helping us one little bit by staying silent. Either way, he’s not a great loss to the village if we string up him by the neck! I wish I could stay around and try to figure things out a bit clearer, and I don’t doubt that my vote would be different if I could, but me aunty needs me…

[Aiwendil]

Mathematical Methods of Wolf Detection

Okay, being a fan (as I said earlier) of quantitative methods, I figured I'd attempt a numerical analysis of people's voting records. I know this may sound like a dubious proposition, and I certainly don't claim that it is infallible. But it can't hurt to try.

The idea is that you gain suspicion points for having voted for a known innocent and lose them for having voted for a known wolf. Now, it seems to me that voting for a wolf is a stronger sign of innocence than voting for an innocent is of guilt. After all, the innocents outnumber the wolves - so a random vote is more likely to be for an innocent than for a wolf. One could try to calculate a ratio of guilt indicators vs. innocence indicators by considering the ratio of wolves to innocents, but that would be tricky and probably ultimately futile. So I'll estimate: I'll assign one point for voting for a known innocent and subtract two for voting for a known wolf. And I'll start with a base score of 5, so that some of you more rustic folk don't have to deal with negative numbers. I'm going to include those that have been slain, as their scores may be some indicator of how accurate this method is. Using this simple model, the results are:

Aiwendil: 4
Boromir: 4
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: 5
Fordim Hedgethistle: 4
Formendacil: 4
Gurthang: 6
Holbytlass: 6
Jack: 5
Kath: 5
Lhunardawen: 5
Mormegil: 7
Rune: 6
The Saucepan Man: 6
WaynetheGoblin: 5
Wilwarin: 6

Okay, maybe that doesn't tell us all that much. It is worth noting, though, that, going by this system, Mormegil stands out as somewhat suspicious.

Of course, the best way to refine this system is to use it over a greater number of votes - we still only two to work with. But we might try to refine it in other ways. For example:

1. A wolf is more likely to have voted for a known wolf at a time when it did not seem likely that known wolf would be lynched. So for such votes, let's only subtract 1 instead of 2.

2. A known innocent is more likely to receive the vote of another innocent if that known innocent has exhibited suspicious behaviour. Here, I am primarily thinking of Gurthang, who (I think) confused us all. So add only half a point for voting for Gurthang.

3. A wolf is unlikely to voice seriou suspicion of an innocent who is widely regarded as innocent. So subtract half a point from anyone who publicly suspected me, Fordim, Boromir, or The Saucepan Man yesterday.

Now we get:

Aiwendil: 3
Boromir: 4
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: 5
Fordim Hedgethistle: 3
Formendacil: 4.5
Gurthang: 5.5
Holbytlass: 5.5
Jack: 5
Kath: 5
Lhunardawen: 5
Mormegil: 6.5
Rune: 5.5
The Saucepan Man: 6
WaynetheGoblin: 5
Wilwarin: 5.5

This admittedly haphazard method, then, has me looking at Mormegil and The Saucepan Man right now - two people who seem very reasonable and very helpful, but who would make dangerous wolves.

I suspect that my method will come under some criticism and I'm prepared for that. But I'm also interested in any constructive criticism anyone might have - what other variables could be considered?

Thanks to our harbourmaster, by the way, for compiling a list of votes each day.

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post with Fordim. Actually, double lynching could be a good idea, if one is reasonably certain that one of the two is a wolf or at least the cobbler. I'm afraid to say that I was fairly certain - and completely wrong.

[Boromir88]

I mus' say I too am baffeld by the wulves selecshun of Miss Wilwarin. Seems rather odd to pick sumone who was growin' in suspishun and I'm totally baffeld by the choice.

Just sum response to the early talkin' so far:

With all due respect to our esteemed retired tutor and harbourmaster, but a double-lynching is never anything but a terrible idea – especially so early on – as all it does is double the chances of lynching innocents, which…guess what?...we did.
I aint no real big favor of double-lynchin' but this to me makes mormegil seem more innocen' than before. I jus' dun think a wulf wuld put 'imself in that situation, cus it will just be far too risky. Mormegil's actions to me seemed like 'e believed eider Rune or Gurthang was a wulf, and in order to catch the wulf 'e felt the need of lynchin' 'em both. It jus' so 'appened that neider of 'em were wulves.

The other is Lhuna. She’s been able to keep a pretty low profile so far, for all that she’s been about and appearing to be helpful, without ever really lending a hand.
I'm not sure about Formendacil yet, 'e still seems fairly innocen', but I agree wi' yur suspishun on Lhuna. She 'as barely gone talked 'bout yet, and I shuld think wulves would want to keep sumone who can quietly stay unner the radar, so to say.

So, Lhuna, migh' as well come out wi' it and tell us of any lycanthropay yu are 'part of?

This admittedly haphazard method, then, has me looking at Mormegil and The Saucepan Man right now - two people who seem very reasonable and very helpful, but who would make dangerous wolves.
I explained why I think mormegil's vote yesturday seems more innocent then guilty. It just appears to me that 'e thought one of 'em wus a wulf and wanted to make sure 'e got 'em. It so 'appens against 'is luck that neider were wulves. But, if one of 'em wus, we'd be praisin' mormegil right now, or 'least I would. If 'e was a wulf, that move jus' seems too risky fur a wulf, to put 'imself under the microscope so to say. 'Owever, 'e could very well be doin' jus' that, tryin' to pull off a bluff.

I must begin to look as the Panman. Really, we 'ave givin' 'im the benefit of the doubt so far, but whut 'as 'e done to be productive fur us? Also, I'm kindof wonderin' why 'e 'asnt been whacked by the wulves yet? The choice of Wilwarin seems odd, and I jus' begin to wander why Panman 'asnt been whacked yet? Also, all 'is talk aint been very 'elpful to us so far.

We 'ave 10 peeple left in the village. Two 'ave to be wulves. So this gives us a 20 purcen' chance of catchin' one today. Since I know I aint no wulf, I'm excludin' my name givin' me 9 peeple to choose frum.

Aiwendil
Fordim
Formendacil
Holby
Kath
Lhuna
Mormegil
Panman
Wayne

I still think Aiwendil and Fordim as innocents so far today. I'm less sure of Formendacil, but I 'ave nuttin really strong to go on to say 'es a wulf. I aint that suspishus of mormegil yet eider, 'is vote yesturday just seems risky fur a wulf.

So, back to process of 'limination, this leaves 5 peeple, and accordin' to me math, one of 'em is logically a wulf.

Holby
Kath
Lhuna
Panman
Wayne

Whether I think 'es a wulf or not, if Wayne aint gonna speak up, I will follow Fordim's vote. The wulves arent gonna get rid of 'em. Though I would 'ope 'em to go after Wayne, like they mystically went after Wilwarin, but I doub' it. If Wayne aint gonna be a 'elp the longer we let 'im stay around the 'arder it will be, we will eider 'ave to suck up and keep 'em, or lynch 'em.

Holby, 'er non-vote yesturday looks strangely odd. Unless I missed sum explanation, its never a good idear not to vote, even if you aint confident in a decision.

Kath 'as been a mysterty to me so far, she like Lhuna I fell 'as gone under the radar. Doesn't say a 'ole lot, which doesn't constitute wolfishness, but 'asnt really been mentioned yet, and that gets me worried if shes a wulf.

Lhuna, same reasonin' as Kath, we seem to 'ave forgotten she was apart of the village, and we cant let wulves just sneak 'round unnoticed.

I explained my suspishuns on Panman above, and will be looking 'ore at 'im today. Though, right now not sure if it constitutes 'is lynchin'.

So, Kath, Lhuna, Wayne, spek up or foreva 'old yur peace.

[The Saucepan Man]

With all due respect to our esteemed retired tutor and harbourmaster, but a double-lynching is never anything but a terrible idea ...I can see as ye ain't a gambler, me Operatic Oyster Opening friend. I'm with Aiwendil on this one. 'Ad Rune turned out to be a Wolf and Guthang the Cobbler, as a nummer 'ere suspected, we'd all be throwin' a party right now and there's be no mutterin' 'bout double lynchings bein' a bad thing. On the basis of me suspicions at that time, I thought Master Morm made a good call, and I ain't a goin' back on that now.

Does that mean I reckon Mormegil to be innocent? No it don't. On the one hand, it would take a bold Wolf to make such a suspicious (as it turned out) move. But on't other, I don't doubt it's sommet a Wolfish Morm might think as 'e could pull off knowin' that the likes of me might regard it as too "obviously suspicious" for a Wolf.

As for the remainin' votes, I don't reckon that they are as useful as yesterday's, bein' as so many voted for the two that were lynched.

Voted for either Rune or Gurthang: SpM, Fordim, B88, Formendacil, Aiwendil, Mormegil

Voted for another: Lhunadarwen, Kath

Did not vote: Holbytlass, Wayne

Now 'ere be a nummer of things to muse over like. Did a Wolf vote for either Rune or Gurthang? Did a Wolf vote for another? Did a Wolf not vote?

The odds, and plain common sense, lead me to think that at least one Wolf voted for either Gurthang or Wayne. Which troubles me as they all be people who I 'ad previously reckoned likely to be innocent. Me current thinkin' is that one Wolf voted for either Rune or Gurthang and the other either voted for another or did not vote. It would be quite risky for a Wolf not to vote, but I wouldn't put anythin' past that young Wayne. Seems to me as 'e ain't a great one for strategies and the like, but just does whatever seems right to 'im at the time.

But I'm also interested in any constructive criticism anyone might have - what other variables could be considered?Well, yer system be fine as far as it goes, Master Aiwendil. But I reckon that it be of little use until we 'ave a few day's votin' under our belts. That's plain to me from the fact that it rates me so highly. See, I reckon our lynchin' of Spawn was a bit of a lucky strike. Most times, in such a situation, the village would 'ave lynched two innocents and no Wolves at this point. The fact we bagged a Wolf on the first day rather skews the system early on, d'you see, by favourin' those as voted for 'er too highly. Over time, though, it will even out more.

Not sayin' it's no use. But I think we need a few more days afore we start thinkin' of usin' it to guide our votes.

As for other variables, you need to look at when people voted and the state of the votes at that point. You take some account of this at yer point 1, but there are other factoes - whether people created or broke ties, whether they might 'ave been votin' to save a fellow Wolf and the like. You should also bear in mind that Wolves may well quite willin' to sacrifice one of their nummer (particularly early on) to gain credibility like. And you need to take account of the Cobbler, though Gawd knows 'ow you might do that.

Finally, seems to me yer system accords to much weight to votes alone. Votin' is one of the most useful ways of spottin' a Wolf, I accept. But there are other ways, based on people's behaviour and what they say durin' the day. Though, again, that's awful difficult to take account of, bein' as Wolves will act in different ways dependin' on the circumstances and are quite capable of behavin' in a manner as makes 'em look pure as the driven snow.

Which brings me to me final point fer now. The deaths of Rune and particularly Gurthang, and the fact that Wilwa turned out to be innocent, show the dangers of concentratin' on those as are generally reckoned to be actin' suspiciously. While that was the basis for me stickin' up for Wilwa yesterday, I still made a mistake by focussin' too much on Gurthang an' Rune. They were actin' suspiciously to my mind, an' others seemed to see it the same way. So they 'ad to be guilty, or at least one of them did, right? Wrong. Mayhaps our experience should tell us that those most likely to be Wolves are those as are conspicuously avoidin' doin' anythin' which might make them seem suspicious.

[The Saucepan Man]

The choice of Wilwarin seems odd, and I jus' begin to wander why Panman 'asnt been whacked yet?I won't deny that I 'ad wondered the same misself. I fully expected not to wake up this morning. But then the same might be said of a nummer 'ere - such as Master Hedgethistle, Formendacil, Aiwendil, mormegil (although 'is central role in the double lynching might explain why 'es been kept alive) and, of course, yerself Farmer Crabbe.

Mayhaps I 'ave not been "whacked" yet on account of the fact that, as you kindly point out, I've got just about everythin' hopelessly wrong so far. I accept that I 'ave been mistaken on many counts so far (though not on Wilwa), but I can assure you that I'm tryin' me best to fathom this 'ere conundrum out.

Holby, 'er non-vote yesturday looks strangely odd. Unless I missed sum explanation, its never a good idear not to vote, even if you aint confident in a decision.You need to take a look at the town notice board (aka the admin thread).

I agree, though, that both Kath and Lhuna 'ave been somewhat flyin' under the radar so far. Then again, Kath is the only one left out of the three as I suspected most yesterday and, given 'ow wrong I was on t'other two, I'm beginning to doubt the thoughts that led me to suspect 'er too.

[WaynetheGoblin]

My sister was killed by wolves. I already have a vote. I have been metsioned in almost every post so far. This sucks. :( A vote from Fordim makes him one of my top suspects.
1.Lhuna
2.Fordim
3.Morm
4.Saucepanman
5.Kath
6.Boromir
7.Holby
8.Formen
9.Aiwendil
I dont have time to explain my list. I am very tired. You will see me tommorow.Good-bye.

[mormegil]

I'm actually beginning to suspect that either Boromir, Fordim or Saucie is a wolf. The reason being is that rarely have I been this confused and these three could be subtle enough to pull one over on me very easily, though I admit everybody could pull one over on me these three could do it most easily.

Out of the three I'm beginning to suspect Saucie the most. I'm low on time so I will explain in brief. Perhaps Jack's implication of Saucie's innocence was put forward so that Sauce would not suspect him at all of being the seer and trying to get on his good side while he had some more dreams hoping to find more wolves. Now his clues put her over the top and Saucie the meticulous, spotted that and killed him that night.

He voted Fordim the first day. He didn't do anything to save Spawn, that's okay, remember Spawn was going to be abscent during many of our discussions and proffered herself as the sacrificial wolf.

Notice that while he says he has no clear idea of guilt he continually stirs the pot and is very influential in who the town votes for.

Finally this wolf pack has been very bold and confusing. Saucie would know to kill Wilwa would be to confuse the village and he would be able to plant new seeds of confusion in our mind. I'm not sure I'll vote for him but I'm looking closely at him as well as Lhuna, Formendacil and Kath. The other two (Boro and Fordim) I will keep a close eye on but probably not vote that way today.

[Holbytlass]

Sorry I missed the voting. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=433245&postcount=1865) It's my busiest time of year what with all the orders for holiday hams, I was rushing so I could come vote and I 'bout sliced off me thumb. So I go looking for the doc but he's never around ;)! Had to make do with a fish-hook and catgut string.

Well, I would've voted Gurthang seeing as I was suspicious of him. Sorry to have put Morm in that position, but I don't blame him for his decision. Most of us were suspicious of either of the two and basically Morm saved us a day of haggling over the one who would have survived had Morm broken the tie. It's a shame they was both innocent, but the numbers are dwindling down and it will get tougher for these wolves to hide. Wilwarin, that's an odd choice. Hope to not sound callous but at least we still have the rest of our gifted.

Aiwendil[/B]: 1. A wolf is more likely to have voted for a known wolf at a time when it did not seem likely that known wolf would be lynched. So for such votes, let's only subtract 1 instead of 2.
A wolf would vote for a fellow wolf at a point when their death is inevidable, but you'll have to do the math on that.
Which, by the way, would fit Aiwendil's vote record, on DAY1. He was the second to last to vote, and he broke the tie putting Dancing Spawn ahead. On the surface, that looks good, but if we look at it from a point of her being the sacrificial wolf, he did it at a time when she just needed that last nudge to put her on the chop. And Aiwendel is so careful, and I'm so suspicious of him.

[Formendacil]

Not revenge so much as payback, m’lad. So far, Formy’s been getting something of a free pass and the only one as has been pointing a finger at him is now lynched…and a proven innocent, I might add removing any tint of wolfishness from his accusations.

Well, I would agree with you that the "proven innocent" thing, as nice as it is, is possibly a little unfounded, thought true. As for the no one pointing a finger well... you appear to be doing just that, if somewhat cautiously.

I've got a question for our Mod, or possibly for one of our more experienced members, which I couldn't find the answer to in Post #1. It regards the Cobbler. Does the Cobbler appear as an Innocent to the Seer? My understanding was that he/she did... Furthermore, when he dies, do we find out right away that he/she was the Cobbler, or do we have to wait until Game End?

I've never played with a Cobbler before, so I'm curious...

My main thought is that if the Cobbler is kept secret until Game End, then we may have killed him (I still say that Gurthang acted Cobblerish, whether he was or not).

A secondary thought that occurred to me in the writing of this, was that if the Seer dreams of Cobblers as Innocents, then some assumptions about this village may be wrong.

I checked the first post of the thread for clarification, but didn't find any.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm very certain we have wise wolves against us. I cannot think of any reason why they would choose to kill Lady wilwa when she was under much suspicion. Either they were hoping that she's gifted or just wanted to add another dead ordinary to the list, I have no idea. But mark my words: I'm very sure that one of those we deem very helpful to the village is a treacherous lycan, no offense.

I really find it weird that the only person who ever voted for Lady wilwa was Mister Gurthang. Thus there's no one the wolves could possibly frame directly for her murder. The strategy behind this kill is really beyond me, but then again I'm not a wolf so it makes sense that I don't comprehend.

The other is Lhuna. She’s been able to keep a pretty low profile so far, for all that she’s been about and appearing to be helpful, without ever really lending a hand. Her vote for Wayne was a nice safe one in that it wouldn’t raise any eyebrows. Then she votes for Kath – pretty much the same as with Wayne. A nice vote to make for a wolf: you’re seen to be out there helping things along, but you’re voting for ‘easy’ targets, and what’s more there’s little chance they’ll be killed so there’s going to be no risk of people coming round after saying, “she voted for an innocent!”Mister pearl diver, sir, I cannot really be blamed for keeping a low profile...perhaps you know about those things called time zones, sir? Now you can all say that I'm hiding behind my weird time zone; say what you will, but I tell you I'm innocent.

As for those 'easy targets' you speak of, can I help it if I really find them the most troubling? Why should I vote for a person just because everyone else is voting for him/her, when I can't see much reason to give him/her my vote?

Another nice move, if you’re a wolf: casting suspicion on another person without making outright accusations, and using that to cover her real message: “I didn’t know as Jack was the Seer – no sir, I didn’t! I sure can’t be a wolf! No way!”Excellently done, sir. You've uncovered my real message. Because I didn't know Jack was the Seer, and I most certainly am not a wolf.

Now that you've mentioned that, my suspicions of Mister mormegil are starting to solidify. I shall explain it later.

[Lhunardawen]

The Case Against Mister mormegil

(Now please don't make fun of my reasoning, sirs and ladies. I've been thinking, and this is what my young mind came up with.)

1. He voted for Gurthang when everyone else who have read the words of Aiwendil voted for dancing spawn. It could be that he was counting on us thinking it is impossible for a werewolf to go against the flow. He had given a very convincing explanation behind his vote to give it more credibility (and that was easy to do on the first Day), but he could just have really been trying to protect dancing spawn. And it's possible that through his reasoning he could sway others to vote for Gurthang to save dancing spawn. But to be safe, he added that he is not proclaiming her innocent, but he's not overly concerned with her.

But dancing spawn was lynched, and it probably didn't matter much to the werewolves. If I may say so, they could have chosen to sacrifice her, as mormegil had repeatedly pointed out: However with those that voted for Spawn is should be remembered as SpM pointed out they could be a wolf. I say this because as we know Spawn was going to have problems participating in our daily meetings and council so perhaps she was a sacrifice to help establish innocence.and again much later ...remember Spawn was going to be abscent during many of our discussions and proffered herself as the sacrificial wolf.Now that's scary. How did he become certain that she "proffered herself as the sacrificial wolf"? :eek:

But funnily, the next Day Gurthang came under heavy fire and was lynched. But this time, he could have voted for Rune instead to spread his votes a little and to not make it seem that he was all over innocent Gurthang. Rune was a safe vote after all, because he was also under heavy suspicion.

2. He uncovered the possible hints Jack included in his posts pertaining to his Seership. Now it could just have been that he was the first to be around to point them out, but he could also have been "assigned" during the Nightly werewolf meeting to unveil the hints that they've found confirming Jack's Seership. And we wouldn't question that, knowing he is wise and all. What's more, we will credit it to him as helpfulness, and that places him off our radar.

3. He was the one who gave the first solid suspicion on wilwa and backed them up with sensible proofs. Again, credit to his helpfulness.

4. He offered a plan that he admitted was likely to be dismissed. What's even more interesting is that the plan will very possibly not harm him at all, because it targets the suspicious-sounding, and he definitely isn't one of them. Again again, credit to his helpfulness - even if it wasn't put into action.

5. He was responsible for the double lynching of Rune and Gurthang. Like all else, this works both ways for him, but it is definitely suspicious. Especially since as I recall it was wilwa he was really suspecting...

Now that I think of it, maybe all my points above work both ways for him. But still I leave it to you all to decide whether I'm a delusional child or one who thinks beyond her age.

I shall try to be back later toDay, but there's possibility that I can't. I still don't want to vote so I will try my best to be back. Thank you, sirs and ladies.

[The Saucepan Man]

The choice of Wilwa last night was certainly mighty strange. I can see naught in her posts which might have suggested that she was gifted. And so I must concur with those who reckon that she was chosen mainly with a view to confusin’ us.

Equally puzzlin’ is why the Wolves have not targeted one of those as is generally reckoned to be an asset to the village, but who (up to now) ‘ave not come under serious suspicion. By this, I really mean misself, Formendacil, Fordim Hedgethistle, Aiwendil, Boromir 88 and mormegil. It occurs to me that the Wolves may reckon as they ‘ave a good chance of steerin’ the village against one or more of ‘em, and so bring about their lynching. Some of the names mentioned (like misself and Fordim) are loud ‘uns, and loud villagers can ofttimes provide fertile material for building a case. Others ‘ave mostly got things wrong so far (like misself and mormegil), again providing grounds for attack.

I ‘ave already seen signs to day of attempts to build a case against me an’ that makes me suspicious of those who be doin’ it. But I am wary of the dangers of suspectin’ people just ‘cos they bring up points against me. So I shall wait and see what else comes up before makin’ any firm accusations today.

[Kath]

Double lynchings eh, looks like they're more trouble than they're worth! Rune and Gurthang both innocents. Now I'll admit to having thought Gurthang was likely the Cobbler, but Rune? I never did understand the suspicion on him. And wilwa dead too, so that's three innocents in a very short space of time. The only good thing is that none of them were Gifted, the bad thing is that there is now a higher chance the wolves will get a Gifted toNight.

So, now that I have some time, lets have a look at those who are still alive.
Aiwendil – early first day poster with an immediate answer to an acusation of being non-commital. Has some good ideas on wolf strategy (because he knows them?) but then some rather contradictory ones on Seer strategy. He tries then to explain, I wonder whether he just couldn't articulate it in the way he wanted. Is then accused by spawn of wanting to make it too easy for the wolves. With the knowledge that spawn was a wolf this could be an attempt for the two to distance themselves. Lhuna then agrees with his ideas, but since I find her suspicious I'm not sure that she's not trying to ally herself with someone seemingly innocent. spawn votes for him and again I wonder why - because of his Seer talk is her reason. Perhaps she was trying to make it look like she wanted to keep the Seer hidden, or she wanted to take suspicion of Aiwendil. Saucepan Man agrees with him and sees him as an innocent. Rune was also suspicious of Aiwendil, but since we now know him to be an ordinary innocent we can't take them as any kind of proof. mormegil backtracks on his early suspicion of Aiwendil though claims he only suspected him in the first place to get some talking going on. As so far my view of Aiwendil is that he is innocent this makes me suspicious of morm. Gurthang is also suspicious of him, but again he had no real basis or knowledge. We hear from the man himself who refutes suggestions that he wants all to follow one plan, he just suspects those who thought his proposal was a trick - fair enough, if his proposal was innocent, suspicious if not. Boro finds no reason to suspect him at all. So Day 1 he seems completely innocent to me.

Complains at the Seer for leaving clues that would get her killed and then suspects anyone who voted for Formendacil. Suspects wilwa (who we know now to be innocent) and Gurthang (same again). Fordim sees him as an innocent. Suspects Saucepan Man for similar reasons to my own. I hadn't seen the clues to Jack's Seership and those who did may have used it for their own gain - but that's later. Has a lot of support from Gurthang, so is allied with a known innocent. Holby is suspicious of him due to sparring with spawn, saying he bandwagons and leads people away from his own vote - she makes some sense actually. Formendacil thinks Aiwendil could be a wolf due to his voting. Lhuna feels he is innocent as she did on Day 1 - so at least she's consistent. Is defended by Sauce though he does not believe Aiwendil to be wholly trustworthy, though he does not suspect him. Boro again counts Aiwendil as an innocent - I think due to the voting. Holby puts him as one of her top suspects. Aiwendil then strongly suspects wilwa (a now known innocent) for her wolf-like vote, though that is only going with the general consensus of the village at the time. Argues against morm's plan (thankfully) and then says he suspects Rune, Gurthang and wilwa - oops! Fordim is relatively sure Aiwendil is not a wolf. Gurthang now sees him as innocent, which is a reversal from the Day before. Rune sees him as an innocent. Aiwendil then votes for Rune, and suspects both Gurthang and wilwa in the same post, again, looking at what we know now - oops! Day 2 I again can't see him as suspicious.

ToDay can't work out why the wolves went after wilwa, and seems genuinely not to know. Then starts on an insane numerical list which puts him as the least suspicious - certainly odd. Boro again sees him as an innocent. Again has support from Sauce, which makes me think he's more likely to be innocent because the support is so absolute. Is very low on Wayne's list though, as usual, we have no reasoning for this. Holby remains very suspicious of him for his voting yesterday, with him being the last to vote for spawn. Lhuna seems to feel that he should be trusted since it was his posting that brought about suspicion of spawn.

That's everything from the last few Days. From all that I can't see that Aiwendil should be suspected, but I began this post with the idea in my head that he was innocent. I would appreciate it if someone who is looking at him as a wolf (i.e. Holby) would read through all that and see if there's anything suspicious looking.

So, Kath, Lhuna, Wayne, spek up or foreva 'old yur peace.
Enough chatter for you now? I'll do this again for someone later but just before I head off I'm really looking hard at Sauce right now. He picked up on all Jack's clues, if before the kill then it's likely he is a wolf, if after then maybe not so much. But I don't trust him.

[Boromir88]

I won't deny that I 'ad wondered the same misself. I fully expected not to wake up this morning. But then the same might be said of a nummer 'ere - such as Master Hedgethistle, Formendacil, Aiwendil, mormegil (although 'is central role in the double lynching might explain why 'es been kept alive) and, of course, yerself Farmer Crabbe.~Sauce
Tis true, I admi' I wus surprised I wusnt wacked yet. We've 'ad three killin's, I wus expectin' to be wacked or if not me, Aiwendil on Night 2. But seein' as the wulves found the Seer they obviously went with the more dangerous threat, cus all I got is me guts. But, I'm baffled by this recent kill and why one of the names you mention above (includin' misself) wusnt wacked last night.

You need to take a look at the town notice board (aka the admin thread).

Sorry I missed the voting.
Thanks fur explainin' I thought I missed sum'in.

Lhuna's argumen' against morm makes sense. It seems like morm knows a lot about the wulves strategy (the sacrifice of Spawn and the pointin' us to the words of the seer), yet despite all this knowledge of wut the wulves are doin' 'es failed to be of any 'elp.

Despite this argument Lhuna 'as come up with she culd also be a wulf who sees that she's fallin under the scope and is searchin' for sumone to turn the village 'gainst.

It now occurs to me that 'least one wulf is sittin' on the 'igh groun' so to say. Knowin' that us villagers are down 'ere jus' goin' roun' in circle, there's a quiet wulf out there that is jus' sittin' back laughin' at us, while we go after eachuthuh. I dun think both wulves are quiet ones, I think it's logical to say that there's a loudmouf wulf stirrin' the pot so to say, an' a quiet wulf watchin' it all.

So my loudmoufs:

Fordim
Panman
Aiwendil
mormegil

My quiets:

Lhuna
Kath
Wayne
Formendacil
Holby

Of the loudmoufs, I still dun surspect Aiwendil or Fordim. I think of the two, Aiwendil seems most likely to be the innocen' one (unless Holby can come up with sum explanations why). Fordim's vote fur Spawn to put 'er in the lead culd be cus 'e didn't think she wuld be lynched, but if she wus 'e now culd go unsurspected, but I dun think so at this point.

Mormegil and Panman look to be the mos' suspishus of the loudmoufs. Both, who 'ave said a lot, and we've taken as wise and knowledgeable 'ave done fairly little to 'elp us and despite all their analysis 'avent a wulf kill to back it up. I wuldnt doubt if one of 'eese two is the wulf puttin' their fingers in the stew.

Of the queits, Formendacil remains to be a puzzle to me. I 'ope sumone can figger 'im out and share, cus right now though 'e be quiet, it aint no reason to think 'es a wulf, it wuts been in 'is few posts that count.

Holby, I cant use 'er no-vote against 'er, cus of the circumstances, but right now she seems to be anuthuh quiet innocen' cus of 'er suspectin' Aiwendil. Seems odd you may say, but any innocen' with only a gut to go on 'as to wunder whos doin' the leadin' after las' night.

Wayne continues to come an' go, and I wuld vote fur 'im soon, cus 'es only goin' to be more of a trouble. Though Panman is right, it scares me that 'e may be a gifted.

Lhuna, I've explained above, though 'er pos' against mormegil makes sense, a good wulf can twist aroun' the truth to 'is/'er own advantage. Though I mus' agree with wut she says on morm.

Enough chatter for you now?~Kath
It relly aint 'ow much you pos' or 'ow often you pos' its wuts in 'em that counts. While this is a 'elpful analysis of Aiwendil, it's basically an regurgitation of wuts gone on the las' few days, but I look forward to wut else yu 'ave to offer befor the days out.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Im back and after thinking about this morning. Saucepanman is at the top of my list morms reasing makes sense to me.Lhuna is probebly the cobbler I suspected her on day 1 and 2 and I think she making the villagers lyeanch people that she thinks is innocent. Morm is a helpful player hes doing what every player should do.Boromir I dont know he Just seems suspicous to me.Kath is not strang or acting weird to me I am begining to think she is inocent.Fordims vote for me was ok because he has a good reoson for it but I wouldent like any more but I still think he is suspiceus.Formen looks fine to me nothing suspicous about him. Aiwendil is another one I dont know about. Well I going to school now good bye

[The Saucepan Man]

'Zounds! 'As someone bin a puttin' sommet in the good doctor's water? 'E's just said more in one post than 'e's said in the past two days together.

Saucepanman is at the top of my list morms reasing makes sense to me.True 'nuff that it makes sense. True, that is, if you take things as I've said 'n done out of context, wrap 'em all up in a nice tidy bundle and add a few prejudicial words for decoration, like. A similar kind of thing could probably be done fer most villagers 'ere. Since Mormegil's case against me 'as been brought up, though, I will comment on one thing as 'e says:

Notice that while he says he has no clear idea of guilt he continually stirs the pot and is very influential in who the town votes for.Does anyone 'ere (those as is innocent) 'ave any clear idea of anyone's guilt? All I can go on is me suspicions, and I've taken' care to outline 'em clearly (unlike Morm, I might add, bein' as 'e never explained why Rune suddenly appeared on 'is suspect list). 'Ave I really "stirred up the pot" any more than anyone else? And, while I'm flattered you think an' 'umble harbourmaster like me to be influential, I reckon that most, if not all, 'ere are more than capable of makin' up their own minds.

It was these thoughts from Master Mormegil as got me thinkin' that maybe 'e is a Wolf an' 'is strategy is to leave me alone last night with a view to leadin' the case against me during the day. Then again, I've thought similar of 'im before and bin proven wrong. However, I tend to agree with Boro that Mistress Lhuna brings out some good points against 'im. True 'nuff, they work both ways, but it's the very fact that Morm 'as appeared so 'elpful that makes me worry 'bout 'im. Wouldn't that be the best way for a Wolf to act? Yet, as Boro points out, 'e (like me, I accept) 'as actually got little right so far.

Morm is a helpful player hes doing what every player should do.Can't disagree with you there. But then, three out of the four innocents who 'ave died so far were actin' in a way generally thought to be unhelpful and suspicious. Mayhaps it's time we started lookin' at those who are goin' out of their way to appear as helpful and innocent as possible.

I shall 'ave me eye on Master Mormegil today, that's fer sure.

One last thing afore I go fer a while:

A secondary thought that occurred to me in the writing of this, was that if the Seer dreams of Cobblers as Innocents, then some assumptions about this village may be wrong.I fully accepts the implication behind that comment. Even if you think Jack did dream of me an' find me innocent, that don't clear me of bein' the Cobbler. I ain't, but I don't expect you to take me word fer it. You'll just 'ave to make up yer own mind.

[Lhunardawen]

Despite this argument Lhuna 'as come up with she culd also be a wulf who sees that she's fallin under the scope and is searchin' for sumone to turn the village 'gainst.Begging your pardon, sir, what I just did would be a very risky thing for a werewolf to do. If I were a wolf and I build such a convincing case (though mine's still not yet so convincing, it seems) against who I know is innocent, and if I were successful in having that person lynched, wouldn't I just have tied the rope around my own neck and strangled myself? No, sir...I am risking even my life (because we never know what the Night will bring) for what I've seen, and felt you should all realize. If I'm wrong, I'm so sorry Mister mormegil. You're just too good to be true. But while you are not yet proved innocent, you are suspicious on those grounds.

[Lhunardawen]

Mister PanMan sir, my name is Lhunardawen. NOT Lhunadarwen. And please don't call me mistress...I'm too young for that. :D

[mormegil]

Lhuna your suspicion of me is just fine and you need not apologize for it. I don't know what to think of your post. It does one of two things in my mind. Elevates you to wolf status or completely innocent. I say that because I am innocent and it seems wolfish to me to attack me but I say innocent because it seems that you went through many posts (although some were taken out of time context) and that you truly thought on it. Now that could be a wolf but this is something I do often as an innocent so that helps me think you innocent. Though it is interesting to be told..."you're being to helpful, therefore you must be a wolf."

More later

[Lhunardawen]

..."you're being to helpful, therefore you must be a wolf."If the latter is false, then the former is a compliment. But if the latter holds true...well, I wouldn't want to say anything impolite and I think you know what follows that.

Because a growing little girl like me needs her sleep, I shall have to vote even though little has been said so far. And since I don't want you thinking I'm fickle for suspecting one so strongly yet voting another...

++mormegil

I think you'll survive the Day anyway, and whether or not I voted wrongly shall be known within the coming Nights and Days.

G'night, everyone.

[mormegil]

I just noticed something that it very interesting and narrows my search a bit further. At the start of the day, most everybody, found me more or less innocent and gave me the benefit of my doubt last night. But now after Lhuna brought up her arguement against me we have two people jumping on it. Fair enough and not odd in itself, so to speak, but what is odd is who jumped on. Boromir and Saucepan Man, two people who ususally don't listen to others counsel and rather give their own. While Lhuna's arguement was decent I don't believe it solid enough to have influenced those two. They haven't fully committed themselves but are beginning to subtly implicate me so as to sway others in my direction.

It was these thoughts from Master Mormegil as got me thinkin' that maybe 'e is a Wolf an' 'is strategy is to leave me alone last night with a view to leadin' the case against me during the day.

Saucepan, you give me far too much credit. My ineptitude at influencing people should be widely known by now. Also only a suicidal wolf would try and match wits with you and I am neither no wolf nor one with wits to rival you. I think my own mediocrity clears me of this charge.

So now I am suspicious of (in order)

Boromir
Saucepan
Holby
Formendacil

I realize that I haven't mentioned Holby before but she's just not sitting right with me and there's another thing or two. One example that keeps coming back to my head is this

To Holbytlass's vote, I've one thing to say with a merry twinkle in my eye:

"Ha!"

I realize I assumed that Jack dreampt of SpM but I'm thinking it's possible she dreampt of Holby and that could help explain this a bit and her vehemence against her the first day, though it could just be the way Jack is and that this "Ha" was more a way of saying your vote is ludicrious because I am the seer and if you kill me you will loose a great asset. However other things about Holby aren't sitting right and I have an uncertain feeling about her and sometimes you need to trust to you instincts and luck rather than and logic.

[The Saucepan Man]

Quiet today, innit?

Mister PanMan sir, my name is Lhunardawen. NOT Lhunadarwen. And please don't call me mistress...I'm too young for that.Please accept me 'umble apologies Missy Lhunardawen. ;)

At the start of the day, most everybody, found me more or less innocent and gave me the benefit of my doubt last night.Yesterday, I said:

Mormegil: ‘Is vote yesterday is mildly suspicious, for the same reason that Kath’s vote is. ‘E seems to be ‘elpful ‘n all, but the very fact that there is little to pin ‘im down on concerns me slightly. Still, I can’t see any solid grounds for voting for him.Early on today, I said:

Does that mean I reckon Mormegil to be innocent? No it don't. On the one hand, it would take a bold Wolf to make such a suspicious (as it turned out) move. But on't other, I don't doubt it's sommet a Wolfish Morm might think as 'e could pull off knowin' that the likes of me might regard it as too "obviously suspicious" for a Wolf.Missy Lhunardawen's case against you did not start me off suspectin' you. Rather, they confirmed me suspicions an' brought together a few things I couldn't quite place me finger on afore. Basically, she be sayin' that that yer apparent willingness to be 'elpful an' gain "brownie points" with us all was worryin' 'er. That's exactly what I was feelin' yesterday, but I couldn't quite work out why. An' 'twas the things she pointed out as 'elped me understand why I 'ave this bad feelin' 'bout you.

Also, 'avin' bin convinced that I would not live to see the morn, I came to the tentative conclusion this morning that the Wolves might start tryin' to sway the village against me in the 'ope of gettin' me lynched. When you aired your suspicions of me, it fitted the behaviour I was kinda expectin' from the Wolves, an' that 'eightened me suspicions of yer too. So, you see, I ain't "piggy-backing" on Lhuna's thoughts at all. Rather, I already 'ad me suspicions of yer, and she confirmed 'em.

My ineptitude at influencing people should be widely known by now. Also only a suicidal wolf would try and match wits with you and I am neither no wolf nor one with wits to rival you. I think my own mediocrity clears me of this charge.You are too modest, my friend. I 'ave always regarded you as a desirable ally, but a dangerous enemy.

They haven't fully committed themselves but are beginning to subtly implicate me so as to sway others in my direction.If you are innocent, then you and I be makin' the same mistake 'bout each other. I 'ope you are innocent, but I still 'ave me concerns.

I don't know whether I'll vote fer you. But, apart from the ever-present engima that is Wayne (and particularly 'is non-vote yesterday) an' me residual concerns over Kath from yesterday, I ain't got much else to go on at the mo'.

[mormegil]

I must say that I am confused. I don't want to continue to go head to head with Mister Saucepan Man. It's too reminiscent of an epic battle I once heard about between two contestants, one young rouge, whom I think was named Eomer and the other had a similar name as yours mister SpM. Anyway those two went at it tooth and nail and turns out both were innocent.

So I don't want a rehash of that, however I don't want to let you go if you are guilty. If time allows I will attempt a clsoer look at Boromir, Holby and Formen with a possibility of Kath.

[Aiwendil]

Mormegil began to draw my attention when my (admittedly somewhat baroque and haphazard) numerical method found him the most suspicious. Allow me to analyze some of his more important behaviour.

1. DAY 1: Finds my suggestions for the Seer contradictory.

If he is innocent: This is a very reasonable thing to say (though, I think, not true).
If he is a wolf: This is a move that keeps his options open. He is now in a position to go after me, should popular opinion swing that way; but he has committed to nothing.
If he is the cobbler: Seems a reasonable thing to say.

2. DAY 1: Backs off of his attack on my Seer suggestion; finds my suspicion of Spawn and Gurthang reasonable, but suspects Gurthang more, and votes for him.

If innocent: Nothing here directly contradicts his earlier suggestion that the idea was contradictory. He simply made the wrong choice between Spawn and Gurthang.
If a wolf: Seeing that no anti-Aiwendil coalition is forming, he changes tactics and latches onto my analysis, but tries subtly to steer suspicion away from a known wolf and toward a known innocent.
If the cobbler: It seems to me a little unlikely that the cobbler would vote for Gurthang, who was acting so very cobbler-ish.

3. DAY 1: Comments that the number of votes for Formendacil is strange.

If innocent: Like me, he thought it strange that so many would vote against someone who had so far done nothing suspicious. Very reasonable.
If a wolf: Knowing that all three of the people who voted for Formendacil were innocent, he begins to set things up to go after those people on DAY 2. A shrewd and very effective tactic.
If the cobbler: His comment seems more helpful than I would expect the cobbler to be. Remember that if he's the cobbler, then he did not know at this point that the three who voted against Formendacil were innocent.

4. DAY 2: Reviews Jack's posts and points to clues that he was the Seer.

If innocent: He has spent some time searching Jack's posts for clues and has uncovered some. This is not particularly helpful at this point.
If a wolf: He has already found those hints and is merely pointing them out. Note that if the wolves knew Jack was the Seer, then someone who notices the clues is more likely to be a wolf than someone who does not.
If the cobbler: I'm not sure why the cobbler would spend much time going over the Seer's posts for clues at this point.

5. DAY 2: Suspects Wilwarin.

If innocent: Wrong but reasonable.
If a wolf: He is carrying through on his plan from the previous DAY - i.e. going after the anti-Formendacil group, all of whom are known innocents. A fairly safe but potentially very rewarding move for a wolf.
If the cobbler: Perhaps, like The Saucepan Man, he thought Wilwarin's vote was too obvious for a wolf - and, suspecting that she's innocent, he goes after her.

6. DAY 2: Proposes a "short list" plan.

If innocent: He really thinks the plan could put pressure on the wolves. It seems to me that the plan is not likely to be particularly helpful, so if he is innocent then we must assume he failed to consider the plan carefully.
If a wolf: Two of the three he lists are known innocents. If Formendacil is innocent then he is trying to ensure that no wolves are killed on DAY 2. If Formendacil is a wolf, then he is betting that the other candidates will receive more votes.
If the cobbler: He is trying to confuse things by throwing a new element into the conversation.

7. DAY 2: Creates a double lynch by voting for Rune

If innocent: He thought that either Rune or Gurthang was guilty; he gambled and lost.
If a wolf: He saw a chance to eliminate two innocents while remaining fairly safe - since he was not alone in suspecting both of them.
If the cobbler: It seems unlikely that the cobbler would create a double lynch of two that were so suspicious.

Where does that leave us? Each of his actions is reasonable for an innocent. But each of his actions seems very reasonable for a wolf. I am not sure whether we should lynch him today. The others that seem suspicious to me at this point are Kath and Lhunardawen, who have been quiet enough to escape much notice and have made very "safe" votes so far - with the possible exception of Lhuna's most recent vote for Mormegil.

[mormegil]

I'm nearly done defending myself because I find that after a certain amount it is useless as people make up their own minds and listen very little to those whom they accuse.

It seems that a point of interest is my early post of pointing out that there was a contradicition, to an extent, in Aiwendil's recomendations to the seer. I ask you, has anyone considered that this was meant to stir some conversation on a quiet first day and help to identify a wolf? Which, if I may remind you, it did. Secondly my other short list plan has been a major point. I brought it forward to give to all to consider quickly and I didn't want it distracting from the days events, which I stated! So when it was obvious after 2 or 3 people arguing against it I withdrew my plan realizing that it was not the best idea. However it was put forward with our best interest in mind; putting heat on the wolves. We were fairly unanimous at the time in thinking that Rune and Gurthang were strong candidates for wolves.

Please consider with an open mind.

[Formendacil]

I'm very certain we have wise wolves against us. I cannot think of any reason why they would choose to kill Lady wilwa when she was under much suspicion. Either they were hoping that she's gifted or just wanted to add another dead ordinary to the list, I have no idea. But mark my words: I'm very sure that one of those we deem very helpful to the village is a treacherous lycan, no offense.

Unless, of course, they didn't care about the Gifteds, and just went for an easy kill. Or, as SPM said, they wanted to confuse us...

Thanks, Morm for your answer on the other thread. It cleared up most of my question, but not this part:

Furthermore, when he dies, do we find out right away that he/she was the Cobbler, or do we have to wait until Game End?

Unless, of course, I just plain missed what was under my nose, but I somehow don't think so...

Now, to some thoughts on the village at large...

Aiwendil: don't know if he's a Werewolf or not, a comment that applies to everybody on the list, but a thought that I toss out to the village is that, as a newcomer to the game, Aiwendil has an advantage over the rest of us in that he has no established style that anybody is familiar with...

Boromir88: Another style-related thought here, one that I believe I mentioned before. Boromir has made a habit lately, of playing this game with a goofy twist- an insulting "Frenchman", silly accents, etc. As I said, I don't think we've ever seen a Werewolf do this, or at least keep it up all game long, and so it would make pretty good cover for the first Werewolf to do so.

Fordim Hedgethistle: His vote for Wayne is saying something... either that he's clueless (which seems really out place for this master genius, but hey! this is Werewolf), or else that he WANTS us to think he's clueless. The later seems, on the face of it, unlikely, and I really don't think it's the case, but this IS Werewolf, as I have already said, and Fordhim is a smart guy, as I also already said...

Holbytlass: I haven't really got a handle on this one... She seems to have picked up a bit of an anti-Aiwendil slant, but whether this is picking up on a Werewolf, being a Werewolf, or just being confused, I'm not sure. I've never played with her before, so her preferred tactics are unknown to me...

Kath has kept quiet. Again, not someone I've played with, but I get the impression that Kath is normally a quieter player. This would suit her well, if she's a Werewolf, but it is not, in itself, evidence of that. Her reaction, however, at the end of her last post, quoted here:

Enough chatter for you now? I'll do this again for someone later but just before I head off I'm really looking hard at Sauce right now. He picked up on all Jack's clues, if before the kill then it's likely he is a wolf, if after then maybe not so much. But I don't trust him.

Her response to the chatter query seems a bit defensive, as if she's trying to "fit in" as best she can. Again, the eternal question: is she trying to avoid suspicion because she is a Werewolf or because she isn't a Werewolf?

Lhunardawen is quite lucky to be in another timezone, since it masks pretty much any suspicions the village has. The most obvious things to suspect about her are, almost inevitably, timezone-related. Could this obvious disability (analogous to a missing leg) hide a smaller, but more dangerous one (analogous to fanged teeth)? I don't seriously think so, right now, but it's something to ponder.

Mormegil: Although I don't really suspect him of yet, I've played with Morm in both of my previous games, and one pattern of his that has become clear is that Morm likes a certain amount of control over the village voting process. Or, assuming that he doesn't like it, he's very good at getting it, anyway. In other words, Morm is both able and willing to save his vote until a crucial point in the voting process, letting him pick- with impunity- the person who is going to be lynched that day. By talking and planning about it, Morm is good at not looking suspicious because of this. This isn't necessarily bad, but it is a recurring theme, from the games I've played. Now, so far in the past, Morm has been innocent and gotten away with it, but if he is, or ever will be, a Werewolf, he could easily put this experience to deadly effect. Already in this game, he has cast deciding votes...

Again, it's partly timezone, but it's also Morm's style, and it should be watched...

The Saucepan Man: The only thing I wanted to bring up about this fellow was already done for me- by his own self, in that he MAY be cleared of Werewolf charges by our dearly departed Seer, but he is not necessarily cleared of Cobbler charges. However, SPM has, if anything, been LESS confusing than usual. Perversely enough, that almost makes him MORE likely to be the Cobbler. I don't think that SPM is really the Cobbler, but it's possible...

WaynetheGoblin: It is so tempting to think that Wayne is the Cobbler, but I believe that Wayne always plays this way- although I've not previously experienced it. Still, his about-turn this morning, in what SPM reacted to with this:

'Zounds! 'As someone bin a puttin' sommet in the good doctor's water? 'E's just said more in one post than 'e's said in the past two days together.

...is just enough to make one wonder. Clearly, Wayne is quite capable of being serious. Or is this being serious his way of being the Cobbler? I've no idea, but it looks strange.

Overall, I have no big suspects, which is a really bad thing in this game... If nothing really shakes me up today, I may do a Fordhim, and vote Wayne, but instinct seems to be saying that it would be a wasted vote...

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I can't find nought wrong with yer anaysis of Mormegil, Aiwendil. It all makes good sense to me.

I am not sure 'ow to react to Mormegil's seeming backing-off from 'is accusations against me. 'E may be a Wolf reconsidering 'is strategy, but then 'e may well be genuine. An', like 'e says 'imself, I don't want to waste effort battlin' 'with 'im if he is innocent. 'Specially bein' as, if 'e is, he could yet be a great asset to this 'ere village.

My instinct, though, is that if 'e was a Wolf, 'e would've waited to see 'ow is case against me went down with others afore backin' off. So, all in all, I'm prepared to do a little backin' off misself and spend some time lookin' at other possibilities - for now, at least.

The others that seem suspicious to me at this point are Kath and Lhunardawen, who have been quiet enough to escape much notice and have made very "safe" votes so far - with the possible exception of Lhuna's most recent vote for Mormegil.I agree that these two merit consideration, fer the reasons you give. Mayhaps, though, Lhuna did think 'er vote today for Mormegil was safe, bein' as she said 'erself that she thought 'e'd probably survive another day (just one more, Lhuna?). As fer Kath, well 'er votin' and her takin' Jack's words outta context already 'ad me suspcious of 'er. There may well be a Wolf 'ere. But I somehow doubt that both are Wolves.

Master Aiwendil, I 'ave to say that I find misself trustin' you more and more. If you're a Wolf, then you're a damn good one. I'm gonna kick misself real 'ard if it turns out that way, but I can't 'elp but think you innocent.

Oh, and 'ere's a question fer all. What are we goin' to do about Wayne? I find misself in two minds. On the one 'and, 'is behaviour is becoming more 'n more Cobbleresque to my mind. On t'other, that's 'ow 'e always acts ... :confused:

[Formendacil]

While posting, I seem to have taken quite a while, and a few people are now leaping onto an anti-Mormwaggon. Although I expressed a pretty lengthily-worded reason for suspecting him, I want to re-emphasize that Morm is playing in his usual style- which, as I said, doesn't mean that he's not a wolf, but it DOES mean that all such past experiences (that I've partaken in) ended up with him innocent.

[Boromir88]

Boromir and Saucepan Man, two people who ususally don't listen to others counsel and rather give their own.
I nevuh jumped onto anythin' I 'ave me own mind I do. I said that Lhuna's comments on you make sense...So far you seem to know a lot about wut wulves do, but yet you 'ave failed to be 'elpful and catchin' them.
I'm nearly done defending myself because I find that after a certain amount it is useless as people make up their own minds and listen very little to those whom they accuse.
Now who wuld do such a thing as that? Ignore sumthin' that sumbody 'as to say? :rolleyes:

Oh, and 'ere's a question fer all. What are we goin' to do about Wayne?
I keep sayin' this and I say its the trufth. The more we keep 'im around the 'arder it will be to get rid of 'im. So, we eider jus' 'ave to put up with 'im and 'is ways, or lynch 'im, cus I dun think wulves will kill 'im. Though I dun think wulves would 'ave killed Wilwarin.

[Aiwendil]

Master Aiwendil, I 'ave to say that I find misself trustin' you more and more. If you're a Wolf, then you're a damn good one. I'm gonna kick misself real 'ard if it turns out that way, but I can't 'elp but think you innocent.

No need to worry yourself there, my good harbourmaster, for I'm innocent - though I don't doubt a wolf would love to be in my position right now. I'm afraid my good name may not serve me so well at night, however . . .

That things have been a bit slow today is certainly not helping us get organized in the wake of yesterDAY's upheavals. I must confess that I'm still a bit bewildered and I'm not sure to whom my vote will go today. I'm somewhat inclined to go after Kath or Lhuna, as I indicated earlier - but on the other hand, I'm tempted to take a chance and go for Mormegil.

I forgot to mention this quote from Mormegil earlier:
He voted Fordim the first day. He didn't do anything to save Spawn, that's okay, remember Spawn was going to be abscent during many of our discussions and proffered herself as the sacrificial wolf.

Whence does he get this? Perhaps I've missed something, but I don't think that Spawn said anything about being "absent during many of our discussions". Is his memory playing tricks on him or did he let slip a comment that Spawn made to her fellow wolves?

[Boromir88]

Aiwendil:

Whence does he get this? Perhaps I've missed something, but I don't think that Spawn said anything about being "absent during many of our discussions". Is his memory playing tricks on him or did he let slip a comment that Spawn made to her fellow wolves?
You can check the Town Notice Board (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=432519&postcount=1861), and I'm assumin' this is what mormegil was refurreein' to. Though I'm sure there's sum other things you can look up scrounging through all the notes and pages. But She was 'avin sum techincal difficulties.

Though, I still find it interestin' that 'e seems to know a lot about wulf knowledge, but 'asnt been 'elpful yet.

Mr. Mormegil: Sorry if I 'ave missd it, but wut is yur explanation fur the Wolves wackin' Wilwarin yesturnight?

[Aiwendil]

Ah, I see that notice now. Sorry I missed it.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I am back from school and have noticed that unless somebody votes it will be a doubel now we already took the double lyeanch risk on day 2 and that was dumb.We could do it again but im not sure that it would help.I probebly wont vote it may cause a triple lyeanch I will be back in an hour or so and post on what happens. For the third time good - bye.

[mormegil]

Mr. Mormegil: Sorry if I 'ave missd it, but wut is yur explanation fur the Wolves wackin' Wilwarin yesturnight?

My thought is that it's an attempt to confuse all of us, which it has worked.

Though, I still find it interestin' that 'e seems to know a lot about wulf knowledge, but 'asnt been 'elpful yet.

Being familar with and actually doing are two different things.

Aiwendil, my comments that you quoted were from a thought process of what would SpM as a wolf do and think. That is why it was written thusly.

I may go for Kath today because I'm not sure about her but then again I may go for Boromir. I still suspect SpM some and Formen though I'm horribly confused overall.

[mormegil]

I am back from school and have noticed that unless somebody votes it will be a doubel now we already took the double lyeanch risk on day 2 and that was dumb.We could do it again but im not sure that it would help.I probebly wont vote it may cause a triple lyeanch I will be back in an hour or so and post on what happens. For the third time good - bye.

Wayne go ahead and vote as it is highly likely that others will vote after you. I promise to vote today. Now there is no triple lynching so don't worry there, however if you do not vote I promise my vote will go to you on the grounds that you are either the cobbler or a wolf being quiet and confusing.

[Holbytlass]

To Holbytlass's vote, I've one thing to say with a merry twinkle in my eye:

"Ha!"
The only thing I can say aout this in my defense is since now we know he's the seer, it makes sense that I might've been that night's dream seeing as I was suspicious of him and voted for him. Only he could've verifed my innocence, had he dreamt of and lived. I really believe he dreamt of SpM the first night, and I don't see Morm as suspicious. The only thing that worries me is if they both be wolves and have gone into this big public display of pointing fingers at each other, they both are smart enough to do so, but I just don't see them wasting so much time.

On Wayne, unless he's bluffing, I find in his post(s) sincere.
If there be a wolf in the loud group, I think it is someone who is more subtle and not loudest and we all know that I find Aiwendil most suspicious, I'm sorry but I stand by my gut.

As for the quiet group, there's got to definitely be one. There's just so many right now....

This is all rhetoric, but I'm just putting down where I stand on some people. I won't be back on so will have to vote now...

++Aiwendil

[WaynetheGoblin]

I dont want to vote for you I think your innicont. I dont about aiwendil and she is looking a little more suspicous to.
++AIWENDIL

I came back because I was bored.

[Aiwendil]

I dont about aiwendil and she is looking a little more suspicous to.

As I think I said before, that's "he".

I suppose it would be asking too much to suggest that Wayne elucidate his suspicion of me . . .

In any case, since I know I'm innocent (and since I don't want to kill an innocent), and since there's a chance anyone else could be a wolf, I'm willing to go along with any group to form a block of three votes for someone other than me. My preference, as I indicated before, would be for Mormegil or Kath. If there's a desire to WaynetheGoblin lynched, that wouldn't be particularly disagreeable to me either.

SPM, Boromir88, others - any thoughts?

[Formendacil]

Aiwendil and Morm seem to be the two under fire today... About Aiwendil I'm totally unsure, as so somewhat cautious about voting that way, but Morm seems wrong to me. I will, of course, be smacking myself VERY hard if he does turn out to have lupine habits, and ends up eating me...

But still, I can't vote for him today. His tendencies thus far have been too close to his normal (and innocent) patterns...

So I'll cast a token vote for Boromir88- not because I think him guilty, but because I think him suspicious, and I'm thinking that he hasn't come under enough scrutiny as yet.

This being (in all likelihood) my last post before work- and the day's end, I'll cast that vote now:

++Boromir88

[mormegil]

This day has been interesting. Rather quiet and focused. The more I think about it the more I consider Saucie to be one of the wolves and while this will probably make my life forfeit by not saving me, I will still go ahead and do what I believe an innocent should do and vote their conscience.

++The Saucepan Man

His behavior has been indicitive of a wolf. Being persuasive yet not committing to much. Allowing others to take his cues and run with them while he puppeteers them from behind so as to avoid detection. He would be intelligent enough to spend the time finding the clues that led to Jack's demise. I only did so after the fact when I knew he was our seer. The other things I have argued against Sauce still stand as to my reasoning as well.

If I die, then you will discover my innocence I put a charge on all to closely examine Saucepan for me. I'm not 100% positive of his guilt but I am more suspicious of him than others so please take my advise if I die.

[Aiwendil]

Formendacil wrote:
So I'll cast a token vote for Boromir88- not because I think him guilty, but because I think him suspicious, and I'm thinking that he hasn't come under enough scrutiny as yet.


Surely a "token" vote for someone you don't believe is a Wolf helps no one.

The votes, by my count, stand thus:

Aiwendil: 2
WaynetheGoblin: 1
Mormegil: 1
Boromir88: 1
The Saucepan Man: 1

Quite frankly, I don't see the point of voting for someone unlikely to be lynched in any case, such as Boromir or SPM. I should also point out that by means of such a vote, all one is doing is making it more likely that I will be lynched. If you truly believe I'm guilty, I can understand that. But I think an objective analysis does not confirm that supposition. If anyone would like me to put forward the points that I think speak in favour of my innocence, I would be happy to do so.

[Boromir88]

SPM, Boromir88, others - any thoughts?
'Onestly I 'ave never been more confused in my life, which leads me to believe we weren't surspectin' the right peeple yesturday, and we aint surspectin' the right peeple today.

I really believe he dreamt of SpM the first night
I'm not so sure of that. Jack sed we shuldnt 'ang Panman first day cus of 'is "smarts" and I agree. 'Owever Jack dun jus' defend Panman, but also other "smarts" like Fordim and mormegil. 'E said this 'bout Panman:
Saucepan Man is an important person here. He thinks more clearly than a few of us. Since we have to vote somebody off today, and since there are really no good reasons to vote anyone off, I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category. True, some of us might suspect them, but at this point in the game, it would be folly indeed to kill any one of these.
Well Jack culdnt 'ave dreapt of all three, and it seems to me that Folwren defended Panman not cus 'e drept of 'im, but cus 'e is one of the smarter ones.

I actually think Jack 'ad dreamed of Wayne. It seems to me that 'e comes out and defends Wayne more than anyone:
I doubt Wayne's the Cobbler. Surely, he could be, but it's pretty much impossible to tell from this point. People think he's suspiciously silent and not giving any reasons for his votes and whatever else you'll bring against him. Well, right now, I would probably say that his silence isn't something that shows whether he's innocent or not innocent, because that's just how he is. He's a quiet little fellow, if you haven't noticed. Indisposed towards talking. You won't find out if he's a wolf by how many words he says

So, I aint so sure about Panmans innocence, and I say Holby pushin' the point makes both of 'em look more suspishus.

Despite Formendacil's vote fur me, it does make sense and I dun think 'es guilty. I 'avent been talked 'bout much and it seems like Formendacil is los' right now as to who to cas' 'is vote fur, and since I 'avent been talked about 'e choses me.

I'm totally as baffeld as the nex' person, but I gotta bad fellin' in my gut about Panman. And if 'e turns out to be a wulf, I wuld seriously look at Holby, who wants to push for Aiwendil's death (and I dun see why) and defend Panman.

++Panman

[mormegil]

Quite frankly, I don't see the point of voting for someone unlikely to be lynched in any case, such as Boromir or SPM.

My dear man there are only not likely to be lynched only if others don't vote for them. Those who vote, especially first, should vote who they think is guilty. While I think you are innocent I don't want to sacrifice another innocent to save another.

[Aiwendil]

Okay, I can accept that, to a degree. I wouldn't have thought there was much chance of SPM being lynched today, but then along comes Boromir with his vote.

Meseems everyone is acting (and voting) strangely.

I will continue to watch - I will vote for our harbourmaster if it proves necessary to save myself. I'd rather lynch Wayne, to be honest.

[The Saucepan Man]

My my, how things 'ave changed while I've been away. I ain't surprised at the votes for me, but I am surprised that Aiwendil is tied wi' me

Although I think we should be lookin' at Lhuna or Kath, I am not averse to votin' for mormegil or Wayne to save misself an' Aiwendil.

Barrin' that, you are best of lynchin' me as while I'm innocent, I ain't gifted. Don't know 'bout Aiwendil, but I'm pretty sure 'e ain't no Wolf.

[Aiwendil]

Saucepan Man: I suspect that you are innocent. I don't want to get lynched, and I don't want you to be lynched either. If you vote for Mormegil or for Wayne, I'll follow.

And if you turn out to be a wolf, I'll be the one kicking myself.

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, lookin' over Boro's comments, I think that I'd be more prepared to vote for 'im than mormegil. Mormegil 'as bin loud in his accusations of me. If I die and am proven innocent, 'e's in trouble. Whereas Boro 'as been more subtle in what 'e's said about me today. I believe that 'twas 'im who first voiced suspicion of me today. Then 'e takes a back seat while mormegil follows 'is lead. An' then 'e comes in with a vote for me at the end of the day.

I think mormegil is just misguided, whereas Boromir88 is cunning - just like a Wolf.

[Aiwendil]

I'm hesitant to go for Boromir largely due to his vote for Spawn on DAY 1 - at a moment when he could have gone for Formendacil instead. Mormegil on the other hand has made no particularly innocent-looking moves.

[Boromir88]

'Eres my views on evryone, so yall can see my reasonin for votin' fur Panman.

Aiwendil
Fordim
Formendacil
Kath
mormegil
Lhuna
Holby
Wayne
Panman

I fell the same wi' Aiwendil and Fordim as I 'ave fur the las' couple days. They still seem innocen' enuff to me, an' I got no ressin to surspect them yet.

If Formendacil is a wulf I feel 'e 'as played a wonderful game as I 'ave been unable to surspect 'im so far. 'Is vote fur me seems like sumone who is baffeld by who to choose, so if 'es a wulf 'es playin' great.

Kath and Lhuna are like sistas, they are more of the silent type and one may be a wulf, or neider.

mormegil I view a lot like Formendacil, only more talkative. 'E jus' keeps commin' off as innocen' despite wut I think 'bout Lhuna's post. If 'es a wulf 'e sure knows 'ow to talk 'is way out well.

Wayne, findin' Jacks pos' I now fell Jack dreamed of Wayne. But, of course I could be wron' and am open to criticism. I just dun think it's a sure thing Jack dreamed of Panman, cus Jacks basis fur not lynchin' Panman wus cus 'e was smart an' put 'is name in with a few others.

Right now seein' as Holby 'as fur ressin I cant unnerstan' wants to go after Aiwendil. Though I guess since Aiwendil 'as been pretty much viewed as innocen' its only right. I do thin' 'owever that if Panman's a wulf, Holby is, cus they 'ave been rather supportive of eachother.

[The Saucepan Man]

Y' know, it occurs to me that today is a crucial day. If we bag a Wolf, then the past three days' voting record is gonna be very informative. But, if an innocent is lynched, then those who voted for 'im are gonna be persecuted, which will most likely end in the deaths of more innocents.

Which is worryin' me 'cos I really 'ave no firm idea as to who's guilty an' who's not. My voting preference at the moment is:

1. Boromir88
2. Wayne
3. Mormegil

I rather think Wayne's the Cobbler. I suspect the other two of Wolvery, but I can't be sure. An' if I get it wrong, I'm most likely gonna be hounded all tomorrow (as I will most surely live out the night in those circumstances).

Oh botheration! What a conundrum! :(

[Boromir88]

cross-postin' 'ere. wi' Panman and Aiwendil...

I think mormegil is just misguided, whereas Boromir88 is cunning - just like a Wolf.
Its yur own vote, do wi' it as yu please. I can tell yu, if I'm lynched today, the village will only turn on yu the next day, cus the result will not be one yur pleased with.

[The Saucepan Man]

I can tell yu, if I'm lynched today, the village will only turn on yu the next day, cus the result will not be one yur pleased with.Quite possibly, which would do no one any good, as I'm innocent. Same thing would 'appen to you and/or morm if I'm lynched.

In which case, I'm gonna play it safe, an' vote for:

++WAYNETHEGOBLIN

But, unnerstand, I've been put in this position 'cos of the way the votin's gone an' I'd rather see Wayne gone than Aiwendil or misself.

[Aiwendil]

Verily 'tis a conundrum!

For reasons I've mentioned, I think Mormegil more likely to be a wolf than Boromir. But I'm not at all confident in that assessment.

I agree that Wayne looks like the Cobbler, particularly considering his vote for me. So I suggest we remove him from consideration (what with time pressing and so forth).

Why do you think Mormegil innocent? And if Boromir is a wolf, why did he vote for Spawn when he could have saved her?

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post. Well, there goes my idea.

++WaynetheGoblin

[The Saucepan Man]

Why do you think Mormegil innocent? And if Boromir is a wolf, why did he vote for Spawn when he could have saved her?I don't know if mormegil is innocent or guilty. I suspect 'im for all the reasons as I've given today. But I've come round to suspectin' Boromir88 more.

I just don't like the way Boromir88's been towards me today, an' particularly 'is most recent comments. Problem is, if 'e's a Wolf, 'e's puttin' 'imslef in a difficult position if I'm lyched and proven innocent. Which is why I hesitate in votin' for 'im.

As for 'is Spawn vote, I still think it quite possible that it was a bold Wolfish strategy to sacrifice one of their nummer (one who was not able to participate much, as mormegil pointed out) in order to gain some credibility with the village.

But you will see by me vote that I thought as Wayne was the best compromise. It give us time to ponder all these matters over tomorrow with more time on our side, an' before the votes force us into doin' things we wouldn't necessarily do.

But I am worried about yer safety tonight, Aiwendil, in spite of the votes you received today. It's up to the Ranger who he protects, but my advice to 'im or 'er would be to protect you.

Mind you, if you turns out to be a Wolf, I'm a gonna be as mad as Mr McMad of Madville, Madland.

I don't think as Kath's voted 'as she?

[Alcarillo]

The villagers argued all day, attacking each other's theories while defending their own. The votes ultimately pointed to WaynetheGoblin, who wasn't known for his helpfulness. He tried to escape the crowd of villagers, violently screaming, but the strongest wrestled him to the ground and tied him up.

The pyre intended for Gurthang still sat at the end of one of the piers. The villagers decided not to waste a pile of perfectly good wood, and so thought it would be the perfect way to get rid of a pesky werewolf. Wayne, however, thought differently. He had read about burns and their treatment in his medical tomes, and shuddered at what he faced.

And so the villagers raised his bound body into the air, along with pitchforks and torches, and Wayne continued to scream. They marched down the pier chanting "Kill the werewolf! Or King's man! Whichever one he be!", placed him on a pole immerging from the pyre, and tied him fast to it, and they also gagged him so his screams wouldn't bother anybody. And then the villagers threw all of their torches into the wood. They all watched the flames crawl up Wayne's body, and soon he was a roaring fire. After some minutes roasting marshmallows for such an occasion, they doused the flames to see their dead werewolf. But their spirits fell as soon as the smoking embers died out: Wayne was no werewolf. He was just an ordinary villager, caught in a village controlled by fear and paranoia.

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2
Rune son of Bjarne – ordinary – burnt at the stake – DAY 2
Gurthang – ordinary – slain in naval engagement – DAY 2
Wilwarin538 – ordinary – killed with fiddle-strings – NIGHT 3
WaynetheGoblin – ordinary – burnt at Gurthang's stake – DAY 3

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks
The Saucepan Man - harbormaster

It is now NIGHT 4! Villagers, go to sleep; werewolves, ranger, hunter PM me.

[Alcarillo]

The Saucepan Man slept in the largest house in town: A two-story townhouse right by the docks. It was filled with fine furniture and expensive tableware. A fancy portrait of his grandparents (Dish and Spoon) hung above the fireplace. An expensive rug adorned each bedroom, and exotic tribal masks from Middle-Earth adorned the walls. His voyages as a mariner had taken him around the worlds and from each land he visited he had picked up a new piece of furniture. He was surrounded by trinkets from all four corners of the earth.

But for all this luxury he did not sleep well this night. He tossed and turned in his creamy-colored linen sheets, turning each single thought over and over in his mind. Who were the werewolves? How could he keep his reputation in such a paranoid village? Could he live up to the expectations of Grampa Dish and Gramma Spoon?

I need a glass o' water, he thought and climbed out of bed. He walked down his hallway and a set of stairs, and into his kitchen. He held a candle in one hand, but its light was dim and weak. He moved his hands about, looking for the candelabra he usually set atop the dining table. He felt the table, but where was the candelabra? Darn, I swear I 'aven't lost it . . . he thought. Then a breeze wafted through and his candle blew out. Now I suppose I 've left the window open! Bah! All I want is some water. 'Ow can I get a drink when I can't even see?! the Saucepan Man, already agitated by the state of his village, cursed a bit at the world's unwillingness to let him find a glass of water. He stumbled about in the darkness for a while, grasping the walls and moving along towards the windows. Suddenly, he felt like somebody was watching him. There he was, moving blindly along the wall, when there could be a werewolf a foot away! He froze, and his hand reached for a heavy picture hanging on the wall, but it was too late . . .

* * * * *

The sun rose in the East, and the sky grew bright and warm. The villagers rose from bed already with the knowledge that another death had occurred. Who was it this time? A quick count showed that the Saucepan Man had vanished during the night. The villagers found the windows of his home open, and after Morm climbed through and unlocked the front door, the rest of the villagers entered. Morm seemed dumbstruck by the horror of what had happened to the harbourmaster, and so he could only lead them to the scene of the crime: the kitchen.

It was a horrible sight: the walls were painted red with blood, the cabinets were smashed to pieces (and the boards and nails apparently used as weapons), and the Saucepan Man's limbs lay scattered all over the floor. His head sat in the very center. His bushy white beard was bloodstained and tangled, and his old pipe sat snapped in two close by. The worst part was the sarcastic note tucked into the Saucepan Man's mouth:

Too bad you killed your doctor.
- The Werewolves

* * * * *

Dead
Alcarillo – mod - impaled upon his own sword – NIGHT 1
dancing spawn of ungoliant – werewolf – pushed off the cliffs and into the sea – DAY 1
Jack – seer – toasted and roasted in forge – NIGHT 2
Rune son of Bjarne – ordinary – burnt at the stake – DAY 2
Gurthang – ordinary – slain in naval engagement – DAY 2
Wilwarin538 – ordinary – killed with fiddle-strings – NIGHT 3
WaynetheGoblin – ordinary – burnt at Gurthang's stake – DAY 3
The Saucepan Man – ordinary – dismembered – NIGHT 4

Living
Aiwendil – retired tutor
Boromir88 – crab farmer
Fordim Hedgethistle – lithesome and non-unionized pearl diver
Formendacil – disgruntled office clerk
Holbytlass – butcher
Kath – bum
Lhunardawen – polite little shepherd girl
Mormegil - repairman specializing in ships and docks

DAY 4 has begun. Villagers, start talking; hunter, PM me; werewolves, stop PMing.

[Aiwendil]

Now we are in a grim situation indeed. Yesterday, things rather went astray. In effect, the votes for me and for the late Saucepan Man forced us to choose from among a small selection of people (Mormegil, Wayne, and Boromir) and to ignore the two that both of us thought should be under the closest scrutiny - Kath and Lhunardawen.

Fellow innocents - we must be more careful today, if there is to be any hope of saving our village.

I remain most strongly suspicious of Kath, Lhunardawen, and Mormegil, for reasons I have already discussed.

There are a few questions in my mind that I can't begin to answer, but that I think are worth considering:

1. Why did they kill The Saucepan Man just when he began to receive some votes? Was it a clumsy attempt to frame Boromir and Mormegil?

2. Kath did not vote yesterday. Why?

3. Was there a Wolvish plot to force us to ignore Kath and Lhunardawen yesterday?

[mormegil]

I must admit that I have never been so confused in all of my days. I was nearly convinced of SpM's guilt.

We now only have 8 villagers left. 2 wolves and possibly a cobbler (that is unless he/she is dead and we didn't find out). Now it is important that today we bag a wolf before our numbers become too disproportionate. To do this I want people's opinion on the hunter and possibly the ranger coming forward. It would give us at least one and possibly two known innocents. It would narrow our number of suspects down to 5 (innocents knowing they are innocent) That gives us a 40% random chance of bagging a wolf. Those odds could be increased or decreased depending upon the wolves behavior today and past days.

Ideas or suggestions?

[Holbytlass]

Wayne wasn't bluffing. In his first post, he bolded an r-o-d=ord. SpM, that is confusing, poor guy.

Morm, you may be on to something, but I suggest at least for toDAY, only the hunter reveal themselves. See the hunter is only a threat to the wolves when killed, when alive, (s)he is just another regular person. If the hunter reveals themself then the wolves are in a pickle wether to leave a known innocent alive or kill them and risk one being killed themselves. I'm not so sure if the ranger should reveal yet. I see the point of narrowing down the suspect list but then that gives the wolves 2 important kill choices. O'course, it's totally up to them.

[Holbytlass]

Since Saucie's not here to do it :( ...

1. Fordim votes for Wayne (wayne-1)
2. Lhuna votes for Morm (Wayne-1, Morm-1)
3. Holby votes for Aiwen (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-1)
4. Wayne votes for Aiwen (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-2)
5. Formen votes for Boro (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1)
6. Morm votes for SpM (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1, SpM-1)
7. Boro votes for Spm (Wayne-1, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1, SpM-2)
8. SpM votes for Wayne(Wayne-2, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1, Spm-2)
9. Aiwen votes for Wayne (Wayne-3, Morm-1, Aiwen-2, Boro-1, SpM-2)

no vote Kath

EDIT: On Kath, I just don't see a wolf being that quiet. Unless her bumming ways has taken her elswhere.

[Boromir88]

Was it a clumsy attempt to frame Boromir and Mormegil?~Aiwendil
You know aftuh the votin' yesturday I wus thinkin' 'bout 'ow the las' couple minuts went between myself and Panman. I wus thinkin' yuh know I'm innocent, I'm gonna take Panman fur 'is word an' say 'e wus innocen'. Cus, as I wus thinkin' las' night, wuldnt it be rathuh funny if Panman an' morm were innocen' and the two wulves were jus' sittin' back laughin' at us cus we wuh goin' 'round in circles killin' eachothuh off?

So 'eres my lis' of most innocen' to leas' innocen'.

Aiwendil
Formendacil
Fordim
Mormegil
Lhuna
Holby
Kath

I thin' atleast one of these three is a wulf, Kath, Holby, Lhuna. Mos' likely Kath, I dun unnerstan' why she dun vote. Holby and Lhuna may very well be wulves too, but I still shuld think that 'least one wulf is stirrin' 'is 'ands in the pot and gettin' us to go in circles. Which, mormegil and Fordim wuld both fit under this bill.

We still also 'ave the cobbler, and since I cant get a reasonnin' on Formendacil, 'e may be the Cobbler. Or if Aiwendil is the cobbler, which if 'e is 'es been doin' a pretty bad job of it. I agree with Panman, if your a wulf Aiwendil, I wont say I'll be mad, but I will say yu desurve to win.

[Boromir88]

Cross-postin' with bunch of peeple...
EDIT: On Kath, I just don't see a wolf being that quiet. Unless her bumming ways has taken her elswhere~Holby
Or if its been like the last couple days, and jus' 'aving me, Panman, and morm go at it, goin' in circles surspectin' one anuthuh, why would a wulf need a reason to talk?

[mormegil]

I thin' atleast one of these three is a wulf, Kath, Holby, Lhuna.

I would tend to think that you are correct in this, but which I don't know. I want to think Holby is the most innocent looking but yet I'm just not sure of much anything currently.

[Boromir88]

Wi' Holbys recent pos' I am inclined now to believe shes innocen'. Atleast comments like theese make 'er look innocen' to me:
I'm not so sure if the ranger should reveal yet. I see the point of narrowing down the suspect list but then that gives the wolves 2 important kill choices. O'course, it's totally up to them.
And one in which I agree wi'. But, now we 'ave the problem (if the 'unter an'/or Ranger decide to step out) a wulf that is lyin' out of 'is/'er toofth to save 'is/'er own skin.

I will be straigh', as Ive sed it all long, I'm neider 'unter nor Ranger, jus' a simple ord wi' 'is own gut fellins to go off of. But, I do agree with Holby. Furst it shuld be up to the gifted whether to revel or not, and I wuld advise only the 'unter revel 'im/'erself

[Alcarillo]

We now only have 8 villagers left. 2 wolves and possibly a cobbler (that is unless he/she is dead and we didn't find out).
I will tell you when the cobbler is dead. So the cobbler is still alive right now.

[Aiwendil]

Holbytlass wrote:
Wayne wasn't bluffing. In his first post, he bolded an r-o-d=ord. SpM, that is confusing, poor guy.


You know, I spent a good long time staring at those bolded letters on DAY 1. As I couldn't see how they could mean "Seer" or "Hunter" or "Ranger", I forgot about them. It didn't occur to me that someone would hint at being an ordinary villager. Now I'm kicking myself.

Mormegil wrote:
To do this I want people's opinion on the hunter and possibly the ranger coming forward.

Here are my thoughts on this. I don't think that the Hunter or the Ranger should come forward just yet. Rather, I suggest that toDAY, no one votes rashly. Before we vote, each person should put forward the name of the person he or she intends to vote for. That way, we can get an idea of who is likely to be lynched. If that person is the Hunter or the Ranger, then he or she should come forward and prevent us from lynching a Gifted.

A problem either way - Morm's or mine - is that with a Cobbler and two Wolves still at large, we may get multiple claims.

Boromir wrote:
Or if Aiwendil is the cobbler, which if 'e is 'es been doin' a pretty bad job of it.

As I'm innocent, I'll take that as a compliment!

[Boromir88]

You know, I spent a good long time staring at those bolded letters on DAY 1. As I couldn't see how they could mean "Seer" or "Hunter" or "Ranger", I forgot about them. It didn't occur to me that someone would hint at being an ordinary villager. Now I'm kicking myself.
I thought Wayne wus the Seer and 'e wus tellin' us sumthin'. But, I culdn't figger out who he was spekkin' 'bout. I saw Rod, and I'm like...um initions of Rune Son of Bjarne..cant be. 'Ow 'bout some wierd thin' of Formendacil (which 'as r-o-d). I spent many a time tryin' to figger it out, then I gave up once I foun' out Jack was the Seer.

[mormegil]

It would be a rather silly wolf that came out and refuted a hunters claim, though the cobbler may do such a thing, either way it would be a overall good thing for us because we would identify at least one enemy.

[Holbytlass]

Kath: She has been around a little (I thought it was her, not Wayne, who missed the vote the same DAY I did), her 2 votes have been have been for 2 different people and she's neither first ones or last ones. All very 'safe' votes.

Aiwendil: Likes to wait and see then votes, 1st vote- breaks tie and gets wolf lynched. Could be lucky vote or gave up on partner. 2nd vote-breaks tie again, tough choice for an innocent, or for a wolf don't care cause both were innocent. 3rd vote-breaks 3 way tie to safe self from two now known innocents-ordo or wolf would save themself.

Fordim: 1st vote-2nd one to vote wolf. 2nd vote-first to vote Gurthang. 3rd vote-first to vote Wayne. Is an early voter, comes off looking like a nonbandwaggoner.

Lhuna: 1st vote- 1st for Wayne. 2nd vote-1st for Kath. 3rd vote-1st forMorm. Only one a proven innocent, spreads votes around, safe votes.

Formen: 1st vote: first for wolf. 2nd vote:2nd for Gurthang 3rd vote:first for Boromir. Early vote for a wolf-either lucky shot or goes for it cause of the sacrificial wolf theory. Early vote for a now known innocent. Middle vote for a 'safe' choice.

Morm: 1st vote-1st for Gurthang, 2nd vote-last for Rune-ties and lynches Rune and Gurthang. Either a courageous innocent trying to take down 2 high suspects, or bluffing wolf getting rid of 2 innocents. 3rd vote-1st to vote SpM

Boromir: 1st vote-3rd for wolf, making tie with Formen. 2nd vote-2nd vote for Rune 3rd vote-2nd for Spm making tie with Aiwen. Could be quickly hopping on to vote off sacrificial partner, likes to make ties, perhaps trying to save fellow wolf Aiwendil.


Suspects:
Aiwendil
Boromir

[Boromir88]

It would be a rather silly wolf that came out and refuted a hunters claim, though the cobbler may do such a thing, either way it would be a overall good thing for us because we would identify at least one enemy
Very true, and even wi' the fallure of the las' two days, the wulves dun got a lot of wiggle room. I can see if thin's were a lot closer and the wulves were close to winnin'. But right now the advantage is 6-2, and they jus' dun cant afford to throw themselfs out and refute the real gifteds claim as that would give 'em away.

As talks proceed. I know Ive been rathuh talkative today, but thats cus I dun wanna see these wulves snatch victry from the jauws of defeet. So, right now:

Aiwendil
Holby
and mormegil, I'm skepticle of puttin' in 'ere, cus I thin' above the other two 'es capable of tryin' to be cunnin' an' wut not, but Ill still put in there are innocen'.

This leafs Fordim, Formendacil, Lhuna, Kath. Fordim I wanna 'ear Fordim talk more. Im growin' more suspishus. I know 'es been busy, an' 'es explained befur 'and, but I wanna 'ere this smart guy talk.

Formendacil I belief is me cobbler suspec'. Leavin' Kath and Lhuna as our wulves. 'Owever, Fordim and mormegil (or even Formendacil) could be pullin' in close be'ind so to say.

I know its rathuh erly, and I no where near to votin'. But this talk 'as cleared a lot of thin's up fur me, and I'm more confident then even castin' my vote fur Spawn (cus that I thin' wus more just luck) that Lhuna or Kath is a wulf.

[Aiwendil]

I know Ive been rathuh talkative today

Being talkative is good, as I see it. The more we talk, the more evidence we have at our disposal. Silence only helps the Wolves.

even wi' the fallure of the las' two days, the wulves dun got a lot of wiggle room. But right now the advantage is 6-2, and they jus' dun cant afford to throw themselfs out and refute the real gifteds claim as that would give 'em away.


Now here I have to disagree. The Wolves are rather close to winning. It's 6-2 but one of those six is the Cobbler. If we (Eru forbid) lynch an innocent toDAY, the Wolves will kill an innocent toNIGHT, and it'll be 3 innocents vs. 2 wolves and a Cobbler.

I expect that no one else cares about my numerical attempt at analyzing voting patterns, but it might illuminate my thought process a little bit. Here are the results I get, starting with a score of 5 for everyone and assigning one point for voting for a known innocent and subtracting two points for voting for a known wolf.

Aiwendil: 5
Boromir88: 5
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: 5 (6)
Fordim Hedgethistle: 5
Formendacil : 4
Gurthang: 6
Holbytlass: 6 (7)
Jack: 5
Kath: 6
Lhunardawen: 6
Rune Son of Bjarne: 7
Mormegil: 8
The Saucepan Man: 8
WaynetheGoblin: 5 (6)
Wilwarin538: 6

The numbers in parentheses are from my perspective - i.e. counting myself as a known innocent.

Now, it's obvious right away that this is not a reliable guide - two known innocents have rather high scores. But I think there are two things worth noting:

1. Formendacil has voted rather like an innocent - more so than anyone else.

2. Mormegil has voted like a Wolf. Maybe he's innocent - he very well could be. Maybe he's the Cobbler. Whatever the case, he seems, on the whole, to have done more good for the Wolves than for the villagers.

So for now, I'm considering Formendacil rather unlkely to be a wolf, but Mormegil is one of my chief suspects.

However - I also agree Boromir and Mormegil that Lhuna and Kath are good candidates for lynching today. They have both been fairly quiet, much to their advantage. And, as has been observed, they have both made rather "safe" votes.

[mormegil]

1. Formendacil has voted rather like an innocent - more so than anyone else.

Tell me, who has the ability to vote more like an innocent, a wolf or an innocent?

2. Mormegil has voted like a Wolf. Maybe he's innocent - he very well could be. Maybe he's the Cobbler. Whatever the case, he seems, on the whole, to have done more good for the Wolves than for the villagers.

I somewhat resent that as I feel as though I have been attempting to help out greatly and even though my votes and ideas have gone wrong it seems on the whole I'm on par with the village would it not?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Well I'm back from me aunty's house, but there's another of me cousins as has come down with sommat terrible now so I'll have to run off and see to her -- so like the last DAY, this will more than likely be me only post!

I can't say as I'm all that surprised by what I see was a-going on yesterDAY. I didn't have any great hope that Wayne was a wolf, but I figured better to take out an unhelpful innocent than helpful one. My but these wolves are cagey...

At any rate, going over the posts of the last while I thinks I shall stand by me conclusions on the last DAY that the wolves could be Formendacil and Lhuna for pretty much exactly the same reasons I gave the last time I spoke up. They didn't really change their patter at all the last DAY so far as I could see. Each goes a-voting for someone as probably won't be lynched so they won't have to face the accusations of voting for an innocent. And they vote in the middle of the DAY so not to attract attention...cause that's what wolves do: they hide.

But they're not the ones as I feel the strongest about here. No -- right now, I feel that the most likeliest wolf of all is that 'Aiwendil bloke. Yes he voted for a known wolf on the first day, and at the time that seemed crazed, but look at the free run he's had based on that. There's been some suspicion raised against him but not enough to amount to anything.

And look at how he comes up with his scores for people. When other folk come up with numbers and lists, he can't be quick enough pointing out that they're not useful. Why? I'll tells you, because other people's lists and strategies might not turn out the same results as his and so he makes them go away.

But the clincher is the deaths of poor Wilwa and SaucepanMan. Both of them die when they're beginning to look suspicious which doesn't make a lot of sense to us: why not leave an innocent alive? Why? I'll tell you -- that Aiwendil has a lot of pull hereabouts and there's folk as wil listen to him. Killing Spawn the first day was all part of his wolfish plot to get credibility, and he aims to keep that. As soon as it looks like things are starting to make sense (Wilwa and Saucy are wolves, says folks) they die -- so things aren't clear, and why the wolves did what they did isn't clear, but isn't it nice we have Aiwendil around, that nice bloke who voted for Spawn on the first day so we can trust him... "Tell us what to do Master Aiwendil!"

I kick myself cause I fell for it. That I did. But not no more I won't. No I won't, not by a long chalk.

So that's why I'm a-going to cast my vote now for

++AIWENDIL

And head out of town to take care of that cousin of mine as is not feeling well.

And if Aiwendil leads the charge to get my lynched this day, then...well...I hopes as he'll be lynched next so that my death won't be in vain!

[Aiwendil]

A bit defensive, are we?

Of course, I meant no offense. As I said, it's quite possible that you are an innocent villager and that you have simply been unlucky. As you can see from my analysis, The Saucepan Man was such a villager - innocent but hapless when it came to voting. We have all made mistakes. But that doesn't mean I'm going to stop suspecting you

I think we should all try to remain calm and collected and avoid getting into any heated debates at the moment. The worst thing that could happen toDAY is a spurt of rash voting like what occurred yesterDAY. And I think we should hear everyone's intended votes before actually voting, to give the Ranger or the Hunter the necessary time to come forward if it looks likely that one of them is going to be lynched.

[Boromir88]

I somewhat resent that as I feel as though I have been attempting to help out greatly and even though my votes and ideas have gone wrong it seems on the whole I'm on par with the village would it not?
Quite true sir. If you are simply a villager (or even one of the gifted 'sides the seer) you really 'ave no clue who's a wulf and who isnt. So, a lot of it comes down to luck, or jus' spottin' wulfishness in sumone.

The more I think on it, I now surspect Masta Fordim as our cobbler. Yes, 'is votes been early for unavailability, but its who 'es votin' for thats got me thinkin' 'es the cobbler. Yesturday for Wayne (which is unnerstandable) but today for Aiwendil. Now, Holby 'as been consistant in goin' aftuh Aiwendil, but Fordim comes right out the blue. Particularly these las' couple days it seems as if Fordim (who as cobbler may surspect Kath and/or Lhuna as wolves) 'is votes go on to distrac' us frum them. Masta Fordim our cobbler per'aps?

I dun thin' 'es a wulf, but it seems to me this is an attempt to jump on with Holby's suspicion and yet again get our focus off of the likely wulf(ves) Kath an'/or Lhuna.

Suspects:
Aiwendil
Boromir~Holby
Why wuld wolves choose to stay so close to eachothuh? I 'ave been defendin' Aiwendil, yes. But thats cus I thin' 'es innocen' and I think 'is vote for Spawn shows that. Agin, why would a wulves choose early on to sacrifice one of their own, specially since Spawn could 'ave been easily saved? I dun thin' wulves would sacrifice one of their own unless absolutely necessary, and so early on in the game it wuldnt be necessary. But that's just me own thoughts on it.

Its true I 'ave defended Aiwendil, and Ive made it clear if 'es a wulf, 'e deserves to win for foolin' me. 'Owever, bein' as two wulves left, if Aiwendil and I were both wulves why would I sit right out 'ere and defen' 'im? Knowin' if 'es lynched this whole time Ive been 'ere preachin' 'is innocen'.

See wulves like to stay apart. They like to subtely say a fella wulf is innocen'/guilty. 'Owever they would never be so closely attatched, cus that gives them no room to squeeze out of a jam. No, Im not defendin' Aiwendil cus were bofth wulves, but cus Im an innocen' and I see 'im as the mos' logical and innocen' one 'ere and to lose 'im wuld be only a detrimen' to the village.

[Aiwendil]

Cross-post with Fordim. Well, there goes my idea about waiting on the votes - though of course I understand and sympathize if Fordim doesn't have time to stick around.

Fordim is no dullard, but I fear he has made some errors of reasoning. Either that or he's a Wolf. Or the Cobbler.

Yes he voted for a known wolf on the first day, and at the time that seemed crazed, but look at the free run he's had based on that.

Of course, from the point of view of anyone but myself, this is possible. But I will point out two things. First, I was the first person to raise suspicion against Spawn. Second, I had it within my power until the very end of the DAY to prevent Spawn's lynching by voting for Formendacil. So if you believe it was a Wolvish plot, you are committed to believing that it was an all-out pre-meditated sacrifice. I point this out because, while I can easily imagine a Wolf throwing out another Wolf's name early on, or throwing his or her vote in when a lynching is inevitable, it seems to me less likely (though, I admit, not impossible) that the Wolves would make such a sacrifice, especially on the first DAY.

And look at how he comes up with his scores for people. When other folk come up with numbers and lists, he can't be quick enough pointing out that they're not useful.

When you came up with a numerical system, I pointed out what I perceived to be flaws with it, while also commenting that I thought quantitative methods were a good idea. And when I came up with a numerical system, I repeatedly emphasized that it was flawed in several ways and that any conclusions drawn from it are tenuous at best.

But the clincher is the deaths of poor Wilwa and SaucepanMan. Both of them die when they're beginning to look suspicious which doesn't make a lot of sense to us: why not leave an innocent alive? Why? I'll tell you -- that Aiwendil has a lot of pull hereabouts and there's folk as wil listen to him. Killing Spawn the first day was all part of his wolfish plot to get credibility, and he aims to keep that. As soon as it looks like things are starting to make sense (Wilwa and Saucy are wolves, says folks) they die -- so things aren't clear, and why the wolves did what they did isn't clear, but isn't it nice we have Aiwendil around, that nice bloke who voted for Spawn on the first day so we can trust him... "Tell us what to do Master Aiwendil!"


But my advice has not been heeded! On DAY 2, I was all for lynching Wilwarin (a mistake, I now know). We lynched Rune and Gurthang instead. On DAY 3, I was all for lynching either Lhuna or Kath. We lynched Wayne instead (partly thanks to you, I must point out).

As for the deaths of Wilwarin and The Saucepan Man - I'm afraid I can't see how these implicate me. The Saucepan Man was, after all, my chief ally yesterDAY.

Despite these errors in judgement, I don't think that Fordim is a Wolf. Perhaps, as Boromir suggests, he's the Cobbler. Perhaps he's a mistaken innocent.

[mormegil]

Both Boromir and Fordim make good points.

The thought that Fordim is the cobbler hadn't really entered my mind but I was beginning to think that perhaps he was a wolf but what Boro said made decent sense. However I do have to admit that there was a bit of sense to Fordim's comments about Aiwnedil. I've had it in the back of my mind that perhaps I've given him too much trust and confidence and those comments accentuated it. Now is Aiwendil a wolf...that's a bit of a long shot but it is possible and I think I will keep my mind more open to this possibility. With the votes accrued there is likely to be at least one true innocent that believes Aiwnedil to be guilty.

Now this brings me to my final point I believe Boromir's recent comments about Fordim made sense and were interesting. Could it be that he is a wolf? I'm not sure but he's always been at least mid-level on my list and he is cunning. These wolves have that--cunning. So I would be willing to wager a months wage that between Fordim, Aiwendil, and Boromir we have at least a cobbler but it's probable that one is a wolf.

Now one interesting person is Formendacil, I suspect that he is innocent but there are some items of interest and he hasn't received much scrutiny as of yet. This brought me to the idea that perhaps we should do a sequential analysis of one another. Everybody would need to participate for it to work properly. It would require a decent amount of time and effort but if everybody is able and willing it could be helpful. It would work thusly:

Use the follow list (in alphabetical order)

Aiwendil
Boromir88
Fordim Hedgethistle
Formendacil
Holbytlass
Kath
Lhunardawen
Mormegil

and each person analyze the individual below him/her.

For example Aiwendil would analyse Boromir who would analyze Fordim and so on until we arrive at me and I would analyze Aiwnedil.

Though come to think of it Fordim already stated that he wouldn't be able to be around a lot so he wouldn't do it and we haven't heard from Kath or Lhuna and they haven't exhibited that they are able to dedicate an extreme amount of time...unlike some of us :rolleyes: (this is strictly because of the amount of time I spend)

Anyway it may be of use tomorrow.

[Kath]

'Safe' votes? Please explain. I voted for those I thought to be guilty, often regardless of the votes that had gone before. I didn't vote yesterday because of bad timing. I got here late and hoped I might have time to get a vote in, but our dear mod said to be quiet just before I managed to. If you want to know who I would have voted for I'll admit that it would have been Saucepan Man because I had been having misgivings about him all day. Of course now we know he's an innocent I'm not really sure what to think. And Wayne innocent too. Did anyone get that rod thing? I thought it was just my screen playing up!

morm, this analysing plan of yours, is that for toDay or the next, because if toDay I will have enough time to do it. The only problem that I see with it though is that if two wolves happen to be next to each other then one wolf will be analysed by another, and so it is possible that they would only pick out statements that made their fellow wolf look guilty. I don't know how that problem could be overcome though since we have no known innocents. If the Hunter or the Ranger revealed themselves (as someone suggested earlier) we would have a known innocent, and if it were only the Hunter then the Ranger could stay hidden and protect the Hunter that night. If that were the case though we would have to decide on who seemed the most suspicious, or who is most likely to be working together, and then put the Hunter in between those two. But then that part would be a bit superfluous as obvioulsy there would be no point in analysing the words of the Hunter if we knew who they were.

So either we leave morm's plan as is and risk a wolf convincing us of another wolf's innocence, we reveal a Gifted or we don't do it. Being as morm would be analysing Lhuna and I'm not too keen on either of them as innocents, I'm not so sure we shouldn't just leave it. If people just analysed those they thought most suspicious it might work better.

[Boromir88]

'Safe' votes? Please explain. I voted for those I thought to be guilty, often regardless of the votes that had gone before.~Kath
Despite tha' argument, you 'ave been very safe in votin', which is prolly a bigger sign of wulfishness than not votin'. Yu kep yur 'ands clean frum an innocents blood, if ya get wut I mean.

Wulves 'ave the knowledge of whos innocen' and whos not, evryone else (cept the Seer who's dead) doesn't. An' yu keppin' yur 'ands clean an' votin' safely only makes yu look more wulfish. See, innocents like me dun 'ave the knowledge of whos a wulf and whos not, we gotta go with our gut. So, were liable to make a mistake in votin' and regretably 'ang an innocent.

Though with the wulves knowledge of who's innocen' and who aint, you can place yur votes much more strategically. Yu've been able to keep yur 'ands clean in the votin'. First night yu vote fur Fordim, second Wayne (who is lynched the next day where yu didn' vote). Now yu can go off the claim that "' 'Ey I havent killed an innocen' yet" cus yur votes 'ave been safe and fur peeple who werent lynched that day. But this act alone makes yu look even more wulfish, cus you wuld 'ave the knowledge of whos innocen', an' just by the talk yu can tell whos bein' surspected an likely to be lynched, so yu safely vote fur sumone else to keep yur 'ands clean of innocen' blood. Though, I mus' ask, do yu keep your 'ands clean of an innocent blood at night?

morm, this analysing plan of yours, is that for toDay or the next, because if toDay I will have enough time to do it.~Kath
That is if yu survive today dear. Though if there is peeple gonna be out, an' not 'round much, I say we 'old off analyzin' fur tomorrow. Though I myself will analyze Fordim' if thats still the wish, cus I got the suspishun 'es the cobbler.

[Kath]

But I have never claimed not to have been involved in lynching an innocent. My votes so far seem to have been for those who later turned out to be innocent. I am no wolf Boro, though some of my actions may make me appear wolvish. The reason I haven't voted for those who had accumulated the most votes is because mostly I did not find them guilty enough to vote for, and that includes spawn on the first day.

Oops, gotta bum. I'll be back later. Feel free to suspect me, it's rather enjoyable, but please don't allow your scrutiny of me to blind you to those who are wolves.

[Aiwendil]

Well, I see no harm in doing my part in Mormegil's analysis plan, at least. I'm not going to analyze every post by Boromir, but I will look at every one that seems to say something important.

DAY 1, post 7: Typical early DAY 1 post. Throws out Lhunardawen's name. Not much to go on here.

DAY 1, post 11: Lists his suspects as Gurthang, Rune, and Aiwendil, citing his belief that a Wolf is among those that have spoken up to that point.

DAY 1, post 48: Throws some suspicion at Holbytlass for her (facetious, I think) first DAY list. Names his top suspects as Holbytlass and Gurthang.

DAY 1, post 53: After leading us through his process of elimination, he arrives at Spawn and Lhunardawen as his chief suspects. His main reason appears to be that they voted early.

DAY 1, posts 64, 66: Names Spawn as his chief suspect. After ensuring that I'm around to prevent a double-lynch, cross-posts his vote for Spawn with mine.

DAY 1 analysis: His suspicions changed substantially over the course of the day before he finally homed in on Spawn. This is understandable for an innocent on DAY 1. If he is a Wolf, he may have decided to sacrifice Spawn near the end of the DAY. Or he may have believed that I would vote for her in any case (even if it caused a double lynch) - or that SPM would vote for her - and therefore, thinking her death was inevitable, he voted for her. Or perhaps Formendacil is a Wolf as well, and seeing that it was inevitable that one of the two would be lynched that day, he voted for Spawn.

DAY 2, post 84: Names Fordim and Aiwendil as most likely innocent and Rune, Holbytlass, and Wilwarin as his top suspects.

DAY 2, post 101: Defends himself against the charge (made by SPM) that he may have "turned on Spawn at the end". He claims that he suspected Spawn through most of the DAY. A simple review of his posts indicates that this is not true - only in post 53 did he first mention Spawn. Goes on to suggest that we should look at obvious candidates and not come up with "crazy theories". Lists Formendacil, Fordim, The Saucepan Man, and Aiwendil as likely innocent. Does not suspect Wilwarin because her vote was too obvious for a Wolf. His top suspect is Rune.

DAY 2, post 129: Repeats some of his earlier comments on Rune and Wilwarin. Complains about Gurthang and Wayne. Says he will most likely vote for Rune.

DAY 2, post 128: Repeats some earlier suspicions and votes for Rune.

DAY 2 analysis: He was consistent in pushing for Rune throughout the DAY; he vacillated concerning Holbytlass, Wilwarin, Gurthang, and Wayne. All of these except Holbytlass are now known innocents - though of course all were widely suspected on DAY 2. If he's innocent, he was (like many of us) misled by their behaviour. If he's guilty, he was riding the currents of suspicion on DAY 2 and helping to push for the lynching of an innocent.

DAY 3, post 161: Baffled by the death of Wilwarin. Thinks Aiwendil and Fordim innocent. Is less sure, but still not suspicious, of Formendacil and Gurthang. Kath, Lhuna, and Wayne are his top suspects.

DAY 3, post 172: Cautiously voices suspicion of Mormegil and The Saucepan Man. Reiterates suspicion of Lhuna and Wayne.

DAY 3, post 200: Votes for The Saucepan Man, creating a tie between SPM and Aiwendil. This, in effect, forces the two of us to choose from among those that have received one vote: Mormegil, Wayne, and Boromir.

DAY 3, post 207: Claims to be showing us his reasoning in voting for The Saucepan Man. That reasoning is not at all clear to me from this post.

DAY 3 analysis: Again, his suspicions change over the course of the DAY. Though he voices some suspicion of The Saucepan Man prior to voting for him, his eventual vote comes as something of a surprise. It may be that he's innocent, he suspected The Saucepan Man, and that he hoped either Kath or I would add to his vote. Indeed, he may have guessed that I would be forced to vote for The Saucepan Man to save myself. As it proved, that was not the case. If he is a Wolf - well, I'm not sure how to read his vote. It's possible that he is a Wolf and he was trying to protect Kath or Lhuna - for both The Saucepan Man and I had said we would likely vote for one of those two.

DAY 4, post 220: Claims that after voting for The Saucepan Man, he decided that to take SPM at his word and consider him innocent. His chief suspects are Kath, Holbytlass, and Lhunardawen - but above all, Kath. He thinks Formendacil may be the Cobbler.

DAY 4, post 223: Now thinks Holbytlass likely to be innocent because she expressed doubts about the Gifteds revealing themselves. He thinks that it should be up to the Gifteds, but he advises only the Hunter to reveal.

DAY 4, post 234: Thinks that Fordim may be the Cobbler, due to his unexpected vote for me.

DAY 4, post 238: Points out (rightly, I think) the ways in which Kath's votes have been safe.

DAY 4 analysis (so far): He has been consistent in his suspicion of Kath and Lhuna. This seems very reasonable to me. If he's a wolf, then he's again going with the flow.

[Boromir88]

DAY 2, post 101: Defends himself against the charge (made by SPM) that he may have "turned on Spawn at the end". He claims that he suspected Spawn through most of the DAY. A simple review of his posts indicates that this is not true - only in post 53 did he first mention Spawn.~Aiwendil
I will say a well done analysis, 'owever this speculation 'ere wuld be wrong, cus I nevuh sed I surspected Spawn fur mos' of the previous day. I told my reasonin', in that if 7 peeple 'ad been voted fur so far, so logically one wus a wulf. I dun wanna add anuthuh name to the lis', so I went through the peeple who 'ad votes and picked Spawn. As I sed above Formendacil an' (I thin' Wayne), she seemed mos' likely to be a wulf. I admit I wus rathuh lucky in my choice. But, as far as who all 'ad votes, I though' she wus mos' likely to be a wulf.
I dun surspect Spawn through mos' of the day yesturday, but before I voted, I did explain my reasonin'.
(To speak more clearly dun=didn't/don't.)

So, other than that mistake with yur analysis, it wus rathuh well done. Though I am an innocen'.

I thought I wuld be able to be 'round all day an' vote, but I won't be. I 'ave some singin' and carollin' in a couple 'ours, I thought that wus aftah the party, buy apparently it's before. So, I won't be able to do a big analysis on Fordim, but I am goin' to go through 'is post and do sum thoughts.
I am no wolf Boro, though some of my actions may make me appear wolvish.~Kath
That wuts gits me worried, cus we dun 'ave many chances lef' and to make a mistake today, will make things only more difficult. I dun know whether to believe you, or not. Fur today, I will, as the mysterious disappearance of Lhuna is rathuh strange to me. Per'aps shes a wulf that 'as jus' givin up. Anyway, I will likely vote for Lhuna (which will come sumtime soon).

I tell any innocen' out there not to follow wi' Fordim. I thin' 'es our cobbler and 'is vote is ment fur us to be thrown off the track once again, like wut 'appened yesturday. Id vote fur Fordim, but bottom line is, if we aint catch a wulf soon, we in trouble, and I dun think Fordim is a wulf. Anway, my analysis on Fordim, and my vote will be comin' up shortly.

[Aiwendil]

To speak more clearly dun=didn't/don't.

Ah. I had thought "dun" = "done". If we survive this, I vow I shall teach thee to speak properly.

[Formendacil]

Fordhim the Cobbler?

Interesting theory....

But I find one thing... wrong... about it, if I may say so. If Fordhim were the Cobbler, wouldn't he be making MORE noise? We're at, what, two posts in two days? Sick cousins or no, Fordhim has not been up to his usual, vocal, standards this game, even before the last couple days.

Of course, that COULD be a Cobbler tactic, since, as it is quite different from his usual style, it is confusing the heck out of us.

Now, if I understand this analysis plan of Morm's aright, he wants me to analyse Holbytlass. Well, I agree with the plan- it could turn up some good stuff. I am somewhat bemused that it is Morm who is proposing it, since it follows so completely with my stated opinion yesterday that he is playing a perfectly Morm-normal game...

Okay, on to Holbytlass...

Holby has been on the quieter side thus far this game- making my job a bit easier. DAY1 started for her with Post #26. In this, she proposes the absurd theory that we look at anyone animal related, that being Boromir, Fordhim, Lhuna, Jack, and herself, Holbytlass. A pretty much typical, nonsensical post for Day 1.

Holby's next post, also on DAY1, is Post #55. She reaffirms the assumption that her last post was a bit silly, and accuses Jack and Boromir of taking a conversation-starter too hard.

Her next post follows right after the last, Post #56. In it, she decides to vote "with her gut" (does this mean she was hungry?) and says that Jack has been too jumpy. She votes for Jack.

DAY2 dawns, and Holby's first post, #78, is fairly short. In it, she wonders at Jack having been the Seer, and at Gurthang's claim of the same title. She asks Gurthang to explain himself.

Also on DAY2, Post #92 is the first in which Holby declares herself suspicious of Aiwendil. She points out what could possibly have been collusion between Aiwendil and Dancing Spawn, and notes how Aiwendil has subtly been steering attention away from himself.

Later in DAY2, Post #106, Holby responds to Gurthang's defense of his actions, and refutes them, not believing them. She finishes with saying that her top suspects remain Aiwendil and Gurthang.

Three posts later, Post #109, Holby again responds to Gurthang's self-defense, with the same response. She also replies to Fordhim's lynch plan of the post above, with an affirmative outlook.

Holby's next post is a short one, Post #113, in which she reminds the village that voting patterns aren't usually discovered until after a period of days.

Two posts later, Post #115, Holby makes nearly exactly the same statement as Post #113, with the main difference being that this was now phrased as an official dismissal of Morm's village lynch plan.

Holby misses voting on DAY2 due to a child's injury.

Holby returns on DAY3, over a page later, with Post #166. She apologizes for missing the voting, and says that she would have voted for Gurthang, had she been present. She declares that Wilwa's death was an odd choice for the Wolves to make. Holby then goes on to say that wolf killing wolf is normal, if it saves a wolf's life, to refute Aiwendil's point- and she points out that, if Aiwendil is a wolf, this would fit his scenario. She also says that she is highly suspicious of his cautiousness.

Holby resurfaces later in DAY3, Post #194, where she agrees that she could have been Jack's last dream, because of his suspicions of her, and wishes that he had lived, so that he could declare her innocence. She goes on to say that she thinks Wayne innocent, and that Aiwendil is more suspicious. She finishes the post by casting her vote for Aiwendil.

Holby makes her first post of DAY4, Post #218, by saying that she was right, and Wayne wasn't bluffing. She responds to Morm's plan by saying that only the Hunter should reveal himself, and that Ranger should remain hidden.

Holby posts right after, with Post #219, with the voting record normally prepared by SPM. She includes, as an addendum, that she doesn't think Kath guilty on account of her quietness, thinking her even more quiet than usual.

Later, Post #228, Holby does an analysis of everybody's voting record, that is little more than a factual recitation of the record. Her ultimate analysis ends with declaring Aiwendil and Boromir her main suspects.

That's the record as it stands as I end this post...

Overall, there is nothing glaringly Wolfish about Holby, but that seems to be a trait that plagues this entire village. Her early record of voting for the seer, Jack is perhaps the most indicting part of her record, but happening as it did on DAY1, I am not inclined to make any accusations based on that alone. Her continuing suspicion of Aiwendil could be what makes or breaks her. It would almost be interesting to lynch him to see the effect on Holby.

If Aiwendil is a wolf, it would mean that either the two of them have been playing a major double bluff, or else that Holby has picked up on what the rest of us have missed. If Aiwendil is innocent, I would really bet that Holby is a wolf- although she could statistically just as easily be a misguided innocent.

Overally, I'm not inclined to think Holby guilty. However, I don't see her as a cleared-by-the-courts innocent, and I would leave her in the "neutral" category.

[Boromir88]

Pos' 13-14: Does 'is analysis of whos the "accusatory" and whos the "non-committed." Puts 'imself in the "self-appointed saviour" and says 'es either daring innocen' or arrogant wulf...Wut about a Cobbler tryin' to get us to follow 'is lead and led us wrong?

pos' 41: Votes fur Spawn. Goes along with Aiwendil's analysis of Spawn an' Gurthang. Says 'es not sure if eider Spawn or Gurthang is a wulf though.

Day 1: 'E seems fairly innocen' to me, givin' a 'and in the death of Spawn.

Pos' 83: Puts evryone into categories aggain. Says theres sum who are clumsy, sum who are "to good to be innocen'" an' the "happless" innocents.

Maybe its cus I believe Fordim is the cobbler, but to me 'is "groupin's" of peeple seem cobblerish. 'Is groupins are rather each the same, 'e just names 'em differently. 'E puts peeple in groups and says..."are theese peeple wulves or are they innocents?" To, me it sounds like sumthin' a cobbler wuld do. 'E makes a bunch of groups an' says these are wulfs or innocents...well no duh. Per'aps I jus' dun unnerstand 'is style.

Pos' 87: sarcastically responds to Gurthang's analysis of 'imself. And begins surspectin' Gurthang.

Pos' 108: Again puts peeple into groups. But this time actually names whos likely to be a wulf. Names Gurthang, Rune an' Wayne as 'is surspects. Though mos' peeple that day did.

Pos' 118: Does this system to try an' figger out whos a wulf. To me, it wus more confusin' then 'elpful (anothuh Cobbler trait?) As mormegil an' Aiwendil foun' problems with it. Evry system is gonna 'ave its problems but Fordim's system wus jus' complicated an' confusin'

Pos' 123: Goes with Aiwendil and mormegil, an' says that 'is system wus basically wrong, but it's not sumthin' evryone 'as to use.

Pos' 128: Votes fur Gurthang, 'is primary surspect through the day. So 'es consistant.

Day 2 Analysis: Consistant wi' 'is vote and surspect of Gurthang. Pos' 118 and 'is "system" seems like a cobbler move to launch confusion at us. But, still up until Day 2 I 'ad no strong suspishuns for 'im.

Pos' 158: 'Is only pos' of this day, as 'e is gone. He opposed the resson for the double lynchin'. 'E says 'e wus pretty sure Gurthang or Rune wus a wulf, but wus wrong. (As wus mos' of us). 'E goes strong aftuh Lhuna, in fact thats who mos' of this pos' wus about. But ends up votin' fur Wayne. I find it 'ere interestin', cus 'e goes aftuh Lhuna and says she votes fur "easy targets." Then 'e turns around and votes fur Wayne...'ypocritical there Fordim? Anuthuh Cobbler move masta Fordim.

Day 3 Analysis: it's up there. Now that I look back, this seems Cobbleresque. If 'E is the cobbler, 'e successfully got our suspishuns off Lhuna and Kath, an' we all know this day turned out to be a brawl 'tween me, Panman, and mormegil.

Pos' 232: again this is likely the only time well see Fordim today. Which if 'es a busy guy is unnerstandable. 'E says Formendacil and Lhuna could be wulves (no mention of Kath, but masta Fordim, 'sides me anyone could be a wulf). Then goes aftah Aiwendil and votes Aiwendil. Again, I fin' this as an attempt to jump on with Holby, and try to get us distracted frum the main surspects. Tryin' to keep us off off the right trail. Again, I fin' this move, like the day befor as Cobbleresque.

That's my analysis on Fordim. Take wut yu want wi' it. I wont be back fur the rest of the day. So, Im gonna vote for Lhuna, who 'as just disappeared. An' since I think Fordim is tryin' to get us off the wulf trail and aftah Aiwendil, Lhuna seems like a wulf. If Lhuna is a wulf, I will go back and consider Fordim as the las' wulf who 'as surspected Lhuna, but then backs off 'is suspishuns and goes aftah sumone else.

++Lhuna

[Boromir88]

Cross posted wi' Formendacil

[Aiwendil]

Thanks to Formendacil and Boromir for their analyses.

Boromir, I understand your voting for Lhuna now if you must be off. But I would again urge everyone else: don't vote hastily. We still have a Hunter and a Ranger out there somewhere, and it would really be a shame if we lynched one of them before he or she had a chance to come forward.

For myself, I am leaning heavily toward voting for Lhuna.

[Holbytlass]

I'm not going to be able to do Kath's analysis till next DAY, Eru willing I'm still alive. I'm voting now since I won't be able to get back on. Formendacil, that's pretty accurate of me, I'm innocent but nothing can clear me since I' m not gifted, there's nothing for me to reveal.

++Aiwendil

[Aiwendil]

It's been far too quiet.

The votes stand thus:

Aiwendil: 2
Lhunardawen: 1

As I see it, we have three options:

1. Lynch me
2. Lynch Lhunardawen
3. Get together a group of at least three like-minded people to lynch someone else.

So, in short, there's no point in voting for someone other than me or Lhunardawen unless you're sure that at least two others will vote the same way. An isolated vote, even for someone you believe to be guilty, will not help anything.

I'll be checking in every so often. Again, I strongly urge caution and advise against hasty voting.

[mormegil]

It is nice to see some analyses coming in, though it seems like we won’t get them all. I will do my analysis of Aiwnedil, who has posted the most so far.

DAY 1

Post 5—Is a trifle bit incensed at the horrible pronunciation and spelling of words and vows to help our village out.

Post 15—Explains why he is visibly non-committal. Also gives his advice to the seer, you all remember it.

Post 17—Clarifies my assertion that his statement in post 15 seemed contradictory. This statement makes sense and seems reasonable.

Important to note that Spawn votes for him on the first day. Could speak to his innocence.

Post 35—Outlines all reactions to his seer approach and defends it. As I have stated I actually found his early statements very reasonable and non-wolfish but I pointed out the ‘contradiction’ to stir up talk, and it worked rather well. He now voices suspicion for Spawn for her reaction and her vote for him. Also, he is now suspicious of Gurthang because of his early vote for Formendacil

Post 37—cross posted and added Rune to his list of reactions but thinks Rune is innocent.

Post 50—Emphasizes that he is a man. Says that he’s suspicious of any that think his plan was a wolfish trick.

Post 63—He voices concern over the number of voted that Formendacil has received, especially in light of the fact that Formendacil has only posted once up to this point. He reiterates that he will most likely vote for Spawn, though he doesn’t want to cause a double lynching.

Post 66—Cues in on Boromir’s willingness to vote Spawn and cross posts his vote with Boromir’s vote for Spawn. This vote put Spawn in the lead and causes her to get lynched.

Overall DAY 1—He seems fairly consistent and made it so a wolf was lynched. As of this point I don’t find him suspicious unless there was a plot to sacrifice a wolf on this day, although Spawn did go after him. Does this speak to his credit or not?


DAY 2

Post 79—First he laments the loss of our seer and wishes his advise had been heeded. He is suspicious of all three that voted for Formendacil. Wilwarin, Gurthang and Jack, all three of whom are innocent.

Post 88—He begins to have some suspicion of Saucie and thinks that it’s possible that Jack dreamt of him but isn’t ready to add him to the “likely innocent” list.

Post 110—Thinks that everybody is too quick to give Wilwarin innocent status because of her tie breaking vote for the unknown Formendacil rather then the wolf Spawn. Also is becoming suspicious of Rune but missed him up until this point because of his focus on the Anti-Formendacil campaign. However despite his suspicions he is willing to lynch Wayne.

Post 121—Does not like Fordim’s quantitative analysis method and reiterates that he will vote for Wilwa or Rune, but more than likely it will be Rune because nobody is voting for Wilwa.

Post 143—Gives Rune his 3rd vote and says he considers Gurthang to be innocent and that we should look at Wilwa the next day.

Post 147 and 150—cross posted and rues that fact that his vote caused a tie though ends up thinking that my idea to double lynch that day is probably a good idea.

Overall DAY 2--The thing I find most interesting is that on DAY 1 and 2 he has been very consistent in all but one thing. He never gave any explanation as to why he suspected and voted Rune. I think he saw the tide turning towards Rune and either hoped on that as an innocent or with malicious intent. I’m not yet sure but it raised my eyebrow when I saw it.


DAY 3

Post 157—Essentially, he says that everything he has done, with the exception of his Spawn vote, has gone horribly wrong and says he will rethink everything.

Post 159—Here he introduces a his new thought which sounds more like something they would be taught in Harry Potters Defense Against the Dark Arts class it is called: Mathematical Methods of Wolf Detection (oh I could just see Hermione loving this class ;) .) Anyway he comes up with his numerical method and gives everybody a score. The problem with this is that it seems too subjective. He realizes that there are probably errors in it and possibly missed variables but overall most people don’t respond to it.

Post 160—Defends the double lynch and admits that he was wrong in his suspicions.

Post 182—Is a long post analyzing me. He basically takes my actions and evaluates them as if I were an innocent, wolf or cobbler and comes to the conclusion that I’m reasonable if I’m innocent but also if I’m a wolf. Basically says it’s a point of view or perspective issue. Voices concern over Kath and Lhuna and their “safe votes” but notes that Lhuna’s most recent vote for me is not so safe.

Post 188—He is grateful to have Spm’s confidence but he doesn’t think he will survive the night. Restates that he is suspicious of both Kath and Lhuna though he is considering going for me. Gets confused over a statement of mine.

Post 190—After Boromir, in post 189, clarified for me (thank you Boro) what I meant and how I knew Spawn would be having some difficulties, he is grateful and dismisses that doubt of me.

Post 196—He now has been voted for (I think twice) and is willing to form a voting block because “In any case, since I know I'm innocent (and since I don't want to kill an innocent), and since there's a chance anyone else could be a wolf”. So essentially he’s saying I’m innocent but somebody else could be a wolf...let’s kill them instead! A bit odd and suspicious. Another thing in this post he has expressed doubt about Kath and Lhuna and I’ve been a ‘chance’ now Kath and I are his main suspects with no mention of Lhuna??? I’m not sure why, he could have merely changed his mind and not told anybody but he could be intentionally casting suspicion on Lhuna but taking it away before it’s too much. Anyway, does this make him wolf? Not sure but likely not, it’s more likely that he changed his mind and didn’t vocalize it.

Post 199—Objects to Formendacil’s vote for Boromir and states that he doesn’t see the point in voting for somebody who is not likely to be lynched. I found this odd and posted about it. I think, more than likely, it’s a difference of opinion and not suspicious.

Post 202—Begins to see eye to eye with me to a degree on my complaint of his last point. Thinks Boromir is acting a bit strange and will do whatever it takes to save himself i.e. voting for Wayne.

Post 204—Asserts his notion that SpM is innocent and tries to form and alliance with him. Seems likely to be an innocent move but then again we have been giving him the “you’re innocent” card since DAY 2 so it might not be a bad strategy for a wolf to pull.

Post 206—Doesn’t want to go for Boromir because of Boro’s vote on DAY 1 for Spawn and would rather go for me because of his idea that I’ve “made no innocent moves”.

Post 211—Is confused about whom to vote for. Wants to know why Saucepan Man thinks I am innocent and he is reticent to vote for Boromir. Thinks killing Wayne might be good because he thinks him to be the cobbler. Now I want to know what happened to Kath and Lhuna. I realize that you want to save yourself but at times innocents should sacrifice themselves for a cause they truly believe in.

Post 212—Votes Wayne

Overall DAY 3—He was really consistent on DAY 1 and 2 but lost some of it here which makes me think and wonder a bit.


DAY 4

Post 216—Is a good post and I think speaks somewhat to his innocence. He reiterates that he is suspicious of Kath, Lhuna and Mormegil. (I’m glad to see it back to all three) He implies why he began to drop Kath and Lhuna the DAY before, which is essentially there was too much focus on others and that we (fellow innocents) need to come together today and get it right.

Post 225—Proposes a hybrid plan based on my idea of the Hunter and possibly the Ranger coming forward. His plan is that we all list who we are going to vote for and then if it seems either are in trouble they can come forward.

Post 230—Uses numerical method and essentially clears Formendacil of all suspicion and says I still am highly suspicious but I could be innocent. Voices continued concern over Kath and Lhuna and thinks they may be a good idea for today.

Post 233—Reiterates that we should not be rash in our voting toDAY. It seems as though he wants control and to keep us organized. A very helpful thing to do if innocent and dangerous but fruitful if a wolf.

Post 235—He is rather defensive about himself and doesn’t think Fordim is a wolf although admits that Boromir could be correct in thinking him to be a cobbler, to which idea I myself subscribe now.

Post 240—Analysis of Boromir which doesn’t seem to come to a conclusion.


My conclusion

Overall I think Aiwendil is innocent and I will give him the benefit of my small doubts. I will continue to watch for any and all suspicious behavior however. He has been very consistent, which can be difficult for wolves to do. The major nagging doubt is he early thinks that Rune is innocent but then out of the blue suspects him and votes for him. Also if Boromir is a wolf then it might be safe to think that Aiwnedil is either taken in by Boromir or a wolf himself.

One last request of you Aiwendil, can you make a better case against Kath and Lhuna other than their "safe votes"? I ask because I am suspicious of them but want to hear more reasons from you.

I hope you enjoyed this because it took me a really long time.

[Aiwendil]

Good analysis, on the whole, Mormegil, and my apologies for being so verbose! I've had far too much free time this past week.

Allow me to explain my vote for Rune. On DAY 2, I was fixated (mistakenly, it seems) on the idea that the Wolves would have attempted to save Spawn on DAY 1. That led me initially to look at Wilwarin, because I was focusing on the strange number of votes for Formendacil. Then Boromir pointed out (in post 84) that Rune had tied things up at 2-2-2 among Spawn, Formendacil, and Wayne. This looked to me like another possible attempt to save Spawn. So both Wilwarin and Rune made what seemed to me to be suspect votes. With no apparent prospect for Wilwarin's lynching, I voted for Rune.

One last request of you Aiwendil, can you make a better case against Kath and Lhuna other than their "safe votes"? I ask because I am suspicious of them but want to hear more reasons from you.

My suspicion is tenuous, I admit. The chief factor is that they have so far played a very "quiet" game, and not only in terms of the number of posts they've made. They have both avoided anything that would bring much attention to them. They have not made any bold accusations or come forward with notable plans or suggestions. They have not gotten caught up in any major controversy. And they have voted safely. It seems to me that on the whole it is beneficial to a Wolf not to be noticed. The quieter a person is, the less evidence everyone else has to go on in analyzing that person. I'm not saying, of course, that a Wolf can't be loud - but it seems to me that Kath and Lhunardawen have gotten off fairly easily so far due primarily to their being quiet.

What worries me is that I can think of another kind of person who wouldn't want to draw attention to himself or herself - a Gifted. It's possible that what we have in Kath or in Lhuna or in both is a desire to hide not from the villagers but from the Wolves. That's largely why I've repeatedly urged caution today. If we lynch a Gifted, we're really in trouble.