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Nogrod
05-07-2008, 12:59 PM
If Sally and I vote Nerwen we get same numberts once again...

Mithalwen
05-07-2008, 12:59 PM
Ah well suddenly freaked me ... post or I'll vote last minute thang ... seemed a bit too laid back... and oh well I don't know there surely was a wolf on wolf vote last time....

satansaloser2005
05-07-2008, 12:59 PM
It seems it's too late...? If it helps, you can kick and hit me if he's innocent. :D


edit: xed with sal and nog



I've been saying it all day dearie. But don't worry, I won't resort to violence. I've got a duck for that sort of thing....:smokin:

Nogrod
05-07-2008, 12:59 PM
++ Nerwen

Mithalwen
05-07-2008, 01:00 PM
If Sally and I vote Nerwen we get same numberts once again...

Take your chance then

Thinlómien
05-07-2008, 01:00 PM
If Nogrod manages to get to a tie and survives again by chance I'm going to strangle Mrs Fortuna - yes, even though Gwath was guilty!


edit: xed with everybody

satansaloser2005
05-07-2008, 01:01 PM
++ Nerwen

Excellent!




Noggie, if you do turn out to be a wolf, I'll smack you....fortunately I don't think it'll come to that.

Nogrod
05-07-2008, 01:01 PM
C'mon dear... :D
(that means Lommy's outburst that is)

satansaloser2005
05-07-2008, 01:03 PM
C'mon dear... :D
(that means Lommy's outburst that is)



Hehe. Poor Lommie's probably having an aneurysm right about now. *gives Lommie a cookie* There, there, it'll be all right.


And now it's up to our dear Menel....may he randomize wisely....


Good afternoon/Night everyone, I'm taking a nap!

Meneltarmacil
05-07-2008, 01:05 PM
The villagers rolled a die to find out who died this time.

Nogrod was the unlucky one. The villagers searched him out and eventually found him among his barrels of ale, which were somewhat empty.

"Wolf, your days are at an end!" Thinlomien proclaimed.

"URRRRRRP" was all that Nogrod said in response.

"I thought so," Sally replied. "What a pathetic man."

"OWOOOOOOOOOO!" said Nogrod, looking up at the moon.

"That's odd, why do you say that?" asked Sally.

"Grrrrrrrrowl!" With that, Nogrod pushed a large ale barrel onto his attackers. When they got up, a ferocious beast stood where Nogrod had been. The wolf howled again and leaped at them. The villagers were initially afraid, but eventually managed to toss enought barrels at the wolf to kill him.

Another werewolf was no more.

Alive:
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Oddwen
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior
Thinlomien

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.
Volo (Ordinary Villager): Turned into a hunting trophy by Wolves on Night 3.
Nogrod (Werewolf): Killed with thrown ale barrels by villagers on Day 3.

Here begins Night 4.

Meneltarmacil
05-08-2008, 01:02 PM
The sun rose again, announcing the beginning of a new day.

This time, Thinlomien was missing from the villagers.

"Well, maybe she finally went off the deep end for good this time," Sally speculated. "I've been trying to talk sense into her this whole time, but she's still just as crazy as... oh no."

They all gasped. In the center of the village was a tall hat rack, with several hats on it. On top of it, however, Thinlomien had been impaled, and there were bloody paw prints all around the scene.

Alive:
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Oddwen
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.
Volo (Ordinary Villager): Turned into a hunting trophy by Wolves on Night 3.
Nogrod (Werewolf): Killed with thrown ale barrels by villagers on Day 3.
Thinlomien (Ordinary Villager): Impaled on a hat rack by Wolves on Night 4.

Day 4 begins now.

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-08-2008, 02:31 PM
Hahahaaa, I knew Nog was one! Great!

Well this is surely wonderful and only Lommy's death gives somewhat bad feeling to that, but with the memory of her bravery and devotion to the village, this is the time of rejoice. However now, I have to read what happened yesterDay, as I did not have chance to read through anything since my last post, and I am not quite sure how things are going to go in the future with me (see the admin thread for more). However I will try to post at least a little now and then we shall see.

satansaloser2005
05-08-2008, 03:32 PM
Okay, I realize I'm probably going to get lynched for being so stupid in regards to Noggie yesterDay, but I'm going to try to help out anyway. I posted the last two Days votes yesterDay, so give me a few minutes and I'll do the same for today. Oh, and I'm going to update my previous post (can I do that? since I'm only adding italics?) to reflect the innocence/guilt of all. Expect a post in a few minutes. :)


P.S. Noggie, you're the devil. That's all I have to say to you right now. Expect a duck to come after you sometime verrrrry soon, my furry friend. :mad::p

satansaloser2005
05-08-2008, 03:59 PM
Day One Votes:
Volo-->Volo at 5:32am
Lhuna -->Gwath at 2:01pm
Kath -->Legate at 4:42
Nerwen -->Lhuna at 5:37pm
Gwath -->Lhuna at 5:52pm
Mith -->Noggie at 6:37pm
Noggie -->Lhuna at 6:52pm
Elf -->Agan at 6:56pm
Lommie -->Gwath at 6:59pm
Agan -->Legate at 6:59pm
No voters: Legate, Oddie, Sally

Day Two Votes:
Kath -->Noggie at 11:30pm
Oddie -->Gwath at 2:39pm
Gwath -->Legate at 6:53pm
Mith -->Noggie at 6:56pm
Lommie-->Noggie at 6:56pm
Legate -->Noggie at 6:56pm
Volo -->Gwath at 6:57pm
Noggie -->Gwath at 6:58pm
Sally -->Gwath at 6:58pm
No voters: Elf, Nerwen

Day Three Votes:
Oddie-->Noggie at 2:40pm
Legate-->Kath at 3:27pm
Nerwen-->Noggie at 5:24pm
Elf-->Nerwen at 6:39pm
Mith-->Sally at 6:55pm
Lommie-->Noggie at 6:56pm
Sally-->Nerwen at 6:58pm
Noggie-->Nerwen at 6:59pm
No voter: Kath

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-08-2008, 04:36 PM
I am not going to haunt around here any longer. After what yesterday happened, I think I'm going to reconsider concerning Sally. Unfortunately, I can't think this through, so it's not 100%, well not even 90% or whatever, but it's probably the best thing that seems now to me. If I were to sum it up briefly:

1. She votes against Nog yesterday (possibly to save him).
2. Her vote for Gwath is no longer a proof of her innocence, because she had to choose between two wolves, so a good place for a wolf-on-wolf vote. (ON THE OTHER HAND: she "saved" Nogrod by this - apparent and possibly dangerous had Nog been lynched and revealed as Wolf? - but then, why not. She might have simply picked her preferrence of a packmate over another. Or something like that.)
3. Her interaction with Nog yesterDay seems that she was keeping distance from him too much. Simply not wanting direct interaction with him (so that she does not incriminate by doing this either him or her or them both). And he did not do much either. (especially this last argument I am not totally sure about, as I really didn't have the chance to read it too deeply, but that's what I think)

Hmm... I was about to vote here now, but I'm not gonna do that, maybe I'll pop in in the morning :EEK: well am I mad or what? If anything happens I could see that and then vote. Or I could later send my vote via someone - on the other hand that is not much as I won't even know well what's going on anyway. See the admin thread. But anyway choose well. Good night.

satansaloser2005
05-08-2008, 04:47 PM
Hmmmm. I just noticed a strange tie between Noggie and Elf, especially yesterDay. I'm going to look into that. Heading out to dinner here shortly, but I'll make sure to post my findings later.


P.S. Distant, Legate? If anything, I was following him around blindly. But hey, interpretation: to each his own.

satansaloser2005
05-08-2008, 06:19 PM
Where is everyone???? I'm in the library right now so I figured I'd check for posts. Nothing....

Come on, people, speak up!



EDIT/NON-GAME-RELATED ADDITION: I'm writing a paper in my Sociology class on languages and need some random phrases in Czech....and maybe Finnish. Now I know no one on the board speaks Finnish or anything ;) but if you could PM/facebook/whatever me with some random quotes (don't care what they are really, as long as they're fairly generic and shortish) I'd be grateful to the Nth degree to the power of seventeen....times four. Okay, back to homework. I'll post on here for real when I'm done.

Oddwen
05-08-2008, 09:01 PM
I'm pretty much convinced of Nerwen's innocence - Nogrod's last-ditch grasping yesterDay just seems too desperate.

But then again so does Sally's "blind following" - a lot of things that she said to and concerning Nog just seems like very silly things for an experienced player to say.

...I don't understand how mine was a "safe vote," especially since I was risking Gwath's death with only two votes left to come in.

The reason I keep asking is that Volo & especially Nogrod voted within like a minute of you - did you know they had voted, or did you think that there were (possibly) four more votes coming in to vote for the other candidate?

Though, considering that the other candidate was Nogrod, another wolf, that pretty much invalidates that question. *headdesk*

It bothers me that Mith isn't bothering me.

satansaloser2005
05-08-2008, 09:22 PM
Quick check-in. I didn't know they'd voted, but I found Gwath highly suspicious, and like I said I was an idiot and trusted Noggie way too much, so I was voting to ensure Gwath's death, as I was pretty sure he was a wolf, more than I was voting to save Noggie. I'm sorry, I should have clarified that, but time was short and I was busy.

Oh, and I promise, post about Elf and Noggie coming, just tidying up some presentations and other things for classes tomorrow.

The Elf-warrior
05-08-2008, 09:50 PM
Sally, you said something about strange ties. How strangely? Faith, even with losing my wits. I could kick myself for trusting Nogrod.

My last post yesterDAY was cross posted, but when I saw that I had cross-posted (including with Nogrod's post saying that I had lit a fire, but I didn't cross post with his statement saying he had already cast a clear and convincing vote for a wolf), the deadline had already past.

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-08-2008, 09:58 PM
Hmm, whatever.

Sally: What I meant by "distant" was that you avoided any direct interaction with Nog. There was none (okay, I may have overlooked maybe, I don't know, but I think there wasn't, and if so, then nothing big).

Anyway your last post which followed mine also seems too nice-wolfy to me - saying nothing more, but nothing less that "to each his own opinion" - to a person who just almost voted you.

Probably for reasons stated above (in my last post and this one),

++Sally

Sadly I can't look properly at her behavior on Day 1 or such. No time. But you others should if you can. Till later, and good luck (or Hodně štěstí).

Nerwen
05-08-2008, 10:10 PM
Gwathagor and Nogrod, Day 2.

I'm trying to work out how much (if at all) Nogrod's sacrifice of Gwath was planned in advance, as it may shed light on the voting patterns of the unknowns.

Known innocents are in italics, known wolves are underlined, everyone else is in bold.

NOGROD

#88.
Attack Lommy, claiming her first post of the Day is wolvish.

#91.
Analyses Lhuna's posts, decides she dreamt of Mith as innocent.

#93.
Lists Agan's actions.

#100.
Still after Lommy, but mentions other names (Kath, Nerwen, Volo) in passing. Gwath is suspicious, in tandem with Legate.

#122.
Lommy innocent, Volo and Legate suspicious. Nerwen and Gwath have made "slips". (Gwath's slip was identified by Lommy in an earlier post.)

#128.
Volo and Nerwen are suspicious. Gwath is "our best bet".

#131.
"Could be persuaded" to vote Volo.

#132.
Defends self from Legate.

#152.
Corrects Sally about number of votes already cast (two).

#154.
[replying to Mithalwen] You should get that [a diagnosis of monomania] quick before you people make bad decisions...

#169.
Complains that "the whole village is filled with cobblers".
Votes Gwathagor.


GWATHAGOR

#127.
Preliminary post: says hi, needs to read more.

#136.
Lommy, Legate and Nogrod are suspicious. Lommy is less so than the other two.
Oddwen suspicious. Volo OK.

#139.
Defends self against Sally. Calls her "fuzzy".

#147.
It's fun to see everyone getting frantic as DL approaches. :) Ok, now I really am going to go read the thread again and then vote.

#155.
Votes Legate.

From this it looks as though Nogrod's sacrifice of Gwath was a late decision– in fact Nogrod spent the first part of the day trying to find another victim and switched to Gwath rather suddenly when Lommy found something on him.

Hope this helps.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

EDIT 2: fixed grammar

The Elf-warrior
05-08-2008, 10:53 PM
I've been wondering, how likely is it that there were four wolves in this village? In post #204 Legate said, "if we have three wolves..." He later says there could be two or three. We know there were more than two. Am I just being too pessimistic here?

Legate, I'd say she did directly interact with Nogrod. It was a question whether it was probable that wolves kill Sally - not whether she is innocent. Being the one to get a wolf killed is no reason for wolves to make their kill on. Retaliatory kills aren't the ones wolves would go for but ones that are useful to them.

In the very next post Sally quotes this statement without an "originally posted by..." and says, Thanks for clarifying. That makes a lot more sense. :)


I need to look at more in-depth. Back in a bit.

satansaloser2005
05-08-2008, 11:05 PM
Sorry, mid-post/work break. Ya know, Menel just might be sadistic enough to have like six wolves. How cracked out would that be? Not that I'm saying he did, but it would be hilarious.


Oh. That was in response to Noggie. What he was talking about, however, I don't remember off the top of my head. Sorry.

Okay. Back to my presentation, which thanks to Legate is going splendidly. :D

Oddwen
05-08-2008, 11:32 PM
My suspicions in order from most to least:

Sally: Her shenanigans late yesterDay were either very naive, or brilliantly calculated to look so.

Then again...

The more I read over it, the more it looks like Nogrod was using you. But then again maybe that was the plan.

Legate - quite a bit of my bells are raised from the first day with Gwath - plus your seething defenses against Nogrod in the later Day, when Nogrod seemed seethingly defensive from everything anyway seems wonky.

Elf -Warrior - He hasn't contributed much - but when he was around yesterday he was very strange indeed. You could see Nogrod getting more and more desperate, but Elfie's all coolly voting for Nerwen...but then again, if I understand what EW has just said about the cross-posting (it is now late o'clock), it may just be Nogrod trying to cast blame on an innocent..

Kath - I'm not sure. I'm not really seeing anything horribly bad in her posts, and a lot of what others seem to be seeing is "it's either Legate or Kath"-type things...though this bit is weird:

First I don't want to vote Nog because I have an automatic reaction of suspicion. Lommy I don't feel is suspicious enough to warrant a vote. Both Gwath and Legate argue themselves in circles about each other as if deliberately trying not to come to a final decision, but Legate does it for other people as well so is more irritating with it. [she votes for Legate]

So...she didn't want to vote for Nogrod because of suspicions, but Legate is okay from a choice between he and Gwath?

Nerwen - probably cleared as I've said earlier - Nogrod was pushing pretty hard for her to be lynched and wasn't for Gwath, so.

Mith - Though the bottom of my list is still pretty high in itself...it's niggling more and more in my mind why she's being passed over quite a bit...


And just because -

Post 241? Ooh, Legate is in the future...

Although Elf Warrior's sense lit a small light to be sure...

Nerwen
05-09-2008, 12:20 AM
I said yesterday that I thought either Nogrod or Legate was a wolf, not both– but now that I've had another look through what Gwath and Nogrod said about Legate on Day 2, I'm starting to wonder again. I mean, the way they kept mentioning him as suspicious, but always in conjunction with known innocents... I've seen that kind of thing before.

On the other hand, he played a fairly active role in getting Nogrod lynched– and I'm pretty sure Nogrod was doing his best to stay alive. Hmmn...

On the whole I think we should lynch Sally, for obvious reasons– but I am a bit worried just because she's so obvious.

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 12:29 AM
On the whole I think we should lynch Sally, for obvious reasons– but I am a bit worried just because she's so obvious.

Totally wouldn't blame you, after what a fool I was made out to be yesterday. Like I said, I understand that I look furrier than a bearded lady right about now, so I'm just going to do my best to help the village before/if I get killed.

And with that, I should get to bed. I'm honestly very sorry I haven't posted about Elf yet; I need to, but I keep putting it off to do my homework or talk about Doctor Who. (casts an innocent look at Gwath and Emily) The post WILL be up before Day's end, as I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that I'm dying, and like I said I may as well do the ordos some good before I go. Good night all!

Kath
05-09-2008, 04:49 AM
So...she didn't want to vote for Nogrod because of suspicions, but Legate is okay from a choice between he and Gwath?
No Oddwen, I didn't want to vote for Nog because in any game I play with him I find him suspicious. The second he starts posting the tone strikes me as wolvish. However, as I know this to be the case, I try not to vote for him Day 1 in order to give my kneejerk reaction time to settle down and actually look for reasons as to why I think him suspicious. Gwath and Legate on the other hand I found suspicious not just as an automatic reaction to their mere presence, and so they were the choices for my vote.

ToDay, I think Legate is still in the running for that vote. His attack on sally looks a little too forced to me. Indeed, if sally were a wolf I sincerely doubt that she would have made that vote that brough Nog and Gwath to a tie. That's incredibly brave forward planning if that was the case, and while I wouldn't put it past her to be that brave, I don't think there would have been time in the last minute voting rush for it to be that well planned. I may have another look at Legate, I ignored him the last couple of Days due to the need for early voting and my own sleepiness. It will have to wait a bit though.

Mithalwen
05-09-2008, 06:31 AM
I am here. Still kicking myself for letting up on Nogrod at the last minute - again .. having harped on the same note for 3 days I once again doubted myself ..and failed ot vote for the woluf when it counted. :rolleyes:.

I don't have a lot of time now but what I intend to do after work is read through in the light of the knowledge we have gained. Two wolves, a seer, some ordos. We have done well but the very first WW game was won by a lone wolf who had seen his comrades die in Day ! and 2 lynches. We can't relax here

I guess this was the classic 3 wolf and seer game but we can't be certain. If there were another special role, cobbler would be my guess.. or maybe it just seems like there are cobblers here!!

Nerwen
05-09-2008, 07:45 AM
Indeed, if sally were a wolf I sincerely doubt that she would have made that vote that brough Nog and Gwath to a tie. That's incredibly brave forward planning if that was the case, and while I wouldn't put it past her to be that brave, I don't think there would have been time in the last minute voting rush for it to be that well planned.

I don't understand your point, Kath. To whoever Wolf #3 is (I'm not saying it's Sally), it must have been clear by then that Nogrod had decided to sacrifice Gwath– if it is indeed Sally, it would be just a matter of following suit.

EDOT: fixed bolding.

Oddwen
05-09-2008, 08:28 AM
Still kicking myself for letting up on Nogrod at the last minute - again .. having harped on the same note for 3 days I once again doubted myself ..and failed ot vote for the woluf when it counted.

...and did vote for someone else quite randomly.

Elf Warrior:

Yellow light:
Kath. I haven't seen much suspicious behaviour, but Kath being a wolf would seem to fit in with Gwath's lycanthropy. That doesn't mean she's a wolf, though.

Well, who wouldn't "fit", anyone would "fit" if you look at it from the right angle.

I just think that the suspicions against Kath are a bit off - her posts look fairly normal to me.

I'm quite convinced that what went on between Sally & Nogrod yesterday was supposed to look too obvious to be obviously obvious - if she's not a wolf, I'm willing to bet she's a cobbler.

Third time's a charm? *crosses fingers*

++SALLY

Mithalwen
05-09-2008, 11:10 AM
So very much true to type then Oddone? :rolleyes: And given your vote you cant' condemn me to much for my choice.... Trouble is I know I work too much from instinct - but sometimes they can be right though I can't really explain why they feel so right, eg Nogrod. Other times I can be spectacularly off which is why Nogrod's where is your proof finally got to me .... anyway I need to do my read through so......

Kath
05-09-2008, 12:14 PM
Ah here we see the downside of the deaths of loud players! Though it is nice not to have so much to catch up on.

At any rate, I said I would look at Legate so I will do that, have a quick look at what's been going on toDay and then vote and head off. It's going to be note form I'm afraid as I'm in a bit of a rush to finish before my housemates have finished making me dinner!

Legate:
Ooh I missed this, there was discussion of the number of wolves. Perhaps not suspicious in itself, or an aim to cause confusion. Says Nog and Mith are the wolves. A clever bluff? Mention Nog along with someone a wolvish Legate knows to be innocent? Then says Nog is actually innocent. Argues with Lommy, does an immediate turn around and says she's innocent. Covers his trail there if he is a wolf and killed her. Gave Gwath the all clear. Not sure about this, would a wolvish Legate clear both his fellows? Ah a mention of me regarding Mith. I said she's playing for fun, which made me think her innocent. The reason I say this for Mith is because if she is anything other than ordo she tends to freak out a bit, thus far I haven't seen that from her so I'm thinking innocent. It may be that she has got better at covering her tracks, I don't know. Varied his suspicion of Gwath through the Day, lowering it more as it got closer to deadline time. Why the wink when he says he might vote Nogrod? Then finally a no vote. Didn't know how not to make a vote look suspicious at the end?

Says who Lhuna didn't dream of, which is an odd way to start. Also starts suspicion of Nog up. This though, is making me think not a fellow wolf. Although I think it possible that Nog would be willing to be sacrificed by Legate in order to make him look spotless. But so early in the game? Had pretty much cleared Gwath the Day before yet has him in the Orange Zone, saying it was like the Day before that he found him somewhat suspicious. Hedging his bets? But to have both fellows as top suspects would be brave. Votes Nog, and says he doesn't mind Nog or Gwath going. It's a very bold game for a fellow wolf.

Thought Sally would die not Volo, and decides he needs to re-look at Nog given Gwath being a wolf, maybe taking the chance to clear Nog's name? Circular argument over whether there could be a Gwath-Nog duo. Pretty much clears Nog from his suspicion list. Then pulls him back onto it. Me too it seems, for repeating something he said. As it happens I was replying to Lommy not Legate so didn't know I was doing such a thing. Votes me but reiterates suspicion of Nog.

'I knew Nog was one' is an interesting way to start the Day considering the Day before he'd been so completely unsure he hadn't been able to bring himself to vote for Nog.

Hmm, do you know I'm wrong about Mith. A couple of her posts on Day 2 are actually quite defensive. As for the leaving threat ... well that I recall from a past game.

Also, the more I've read of Sally the more suspicious I'm finding her. Maybe Legate's arguments on her aren't quite as odd as they looked. But then Legate says Sally never interacted with Nog and that's not strictly true. While they may not have directly spoken to each other almost everything Sally was doing was based around what Nog was doing.

I've now ended up with three suspects. I simply can't make up my mind on Legate. He feels so suspicious to me but when I try to find evidence to back up why it just takes me round in circles. Mith is slowly starting to rise up that suspicion list too but I want to see more from her before I decide on anything. Sally - I just have trouble believing anyone could follow so blindly. Has she been a wolf before? Would she follow because Nog was more experienced? I think it's possible, but at the same time, to make it so obvious?

No, I'm going to go with my original suspicion.

++LEGATE

Because he did argue in circles with Gwath, and he did change his suspicion on Nog depending on which way the village wind was blowing. I don't like this vote. I'm unsure and I don't like that I'm voting for someone who may not be back to defend himself, as it usually strikes me as unfair. But, he is top of my suspicion list.

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 12:22 PM
I think I'm cursed. Every time I try to post, my computer/Internet freezes up. Maybe a quick post about something else will break the "curse."



Noggie's stranger-than-usual behavior towards myself....

Legate: have I missed something or why do you think the wolves should have killed Sally?

Basically confirming that I shouldn't have died that night, and that killing me would make no sense. Maybe he was just second guessing the killing of Volo? I don't know

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005
Most likely because I tied the voting between you and Gwath.

So? I still don't see the point...

And a word of caution to my suggestion of watching Lommy: the voting records just caught my eye. Lommy voted for Gwath on Day1 as the second last voter (one minute before the DL) bringing him one vote away from Lhuna. In the end there were three people who didn't vote that Day but I'd say that would be really bold move from a fellow-wolf because she couldn't know who would vote and whom! I'll take that as an argument on her favour. It would just have been a bit too risky.

Doesn't even acknowledge the fact that A: I saved his tush, and B: I was the instrumental vote in getting Gwath lynched. Still doesn't see this as important even after Legate and I explained it to him.


Sally brought Gwath level with me yesterDay at the last minute while it would have been easy for her to vote me just saying something like "let's check Noggie out then" or something and thence gen an innocent lynched & save her mate. And as I said earlier it would be a bit too high a price with this many villagers left for a wolf to buy "credence" with a fellow-sacrifice.

Suddenly I'm given the all clear from him? Why? For the exact reason he didn't understand/agree with previously. :eek!:



Sacred bovine! He set me up!!!!!




EDIT: x'd with Kath

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 12:26 PM
Side note: Unless I'm mistaken, Elf has only made six posts....this ENTIRE game. If we're looking for a quiet wolf, I think he's a safe bet. Anyway, laptop is behaving again, so I'll get to that post I promised you all.

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 12:32 PM
I have poem for you all. It's entitled "A Bucket Has Been Kicked"

Who is a wolf, I can not tell.
The thoughts in my head aren't clear as a bell.
Is it Mithalwen?
Or could it be Lhunardawen?
Or is it another?
All I know is the dairy farmer has been smothered
By men who take the shape of lycanthropes.
This problem has got this village by the throat.


Ok, on to business. Nogrod's critique of group based arguments in post 15 should be heeded. I'd like to add that the odds of being a wolve are x out of 14 (x=how many lycanthropes there are in this village.) If I had to guess, Nogrod's probably clean. Also, it doesn't matter whether someone has been a wolf before, the odds of someone being a wolf this time are still the same. Lhuna, Legate didn't say everyone was a cobbler, he said everyone was acting like a cobbler. On the other hand, the contents of your list may have been intended for humour as Lommy said, thus making your statement less suspicious in my opinion. As to Lommy's complaint about voting because one has to suspect someone seems perfectly innocent to me. As to Mithalwen, I'm inclined to agree with Kath that she's not a wolf on the grounds that she's playing for fun. I'll vote closer to the deadline.

Pretty much starts out silly. Though he almost seems like he has taken the liberty of explaining Noggie's posts for him. Not a whole lot to say on this (especially on my SIXTH attempt at a now-brief post) so let's just say that it makes me a tiny bit uncomfortable. Not a lot, but with Elf there's not a lot to go on, so I feel like I need to mention everything.




Nogrod,I can see why you would reason so, but I disagree. Maybe I'm an innocent who is looking for guidance, and who is persuaded by what you say.

++Aganzir

I agree with you about wolf plans, and you seem all right, but I'm going on a hunch. Please forgive me if you aren't a wolf.

Now this bothers me. "Maybe I'm an innocent and you're fooling me?" It seems to me like Elf is setting up an insanity defense well in advance.




Sorry for my quietness, all. Here's my list in rough order of suspiciousness:

Green light:
Mith. There's the possibility that Lhuna dreamt of her innocence, and I just don't see her being a wolf.
Oddwen. Possible seer dream and 2nd DAY vote for Gwath pretty much clear her.

Sally. Her vote seems to clear her, and because she said But if Nogrod is a wolf, that would negate this evidence because she would have been choosing between two wolves. However, she was on Gwath's case earlier so unless Gwath was a sacrificial wolf, she is pretty much in the clear.
Legate. If I had to guess, I'd say he's innocent. I think that Lhuna's gut feeling was right, that Gwath was trying to suck up to Legate. See post #36.

Nogrod: My feeling is that Gwath come against Nogrod too hard for him to be a wolf. But Lommy's arguments make me not completely write off the possibility that Nogrod is a wolf.

Lommy. Her vote against Gwath seems to clear her and I didn't find her that suspicious.

I wouldn't focus on any of these right now. I'd focus on my last two.

Yellow light:
Kath. I haven't seen much suspicious behaviour, but Kath being a wolf would seem to fit in with Gwath's lycanthropy. That doesn't mean she's a wolf, though.

Red light:
Nerwen. That thing about the wolves killing Lhuna doesn't sit well with me. Her being a wolf would also fit in with Gwath.

++Nerwen

What you can do, Nogrod, is make a clear and convincing vote for a wolf. Just my two cents.

Again, seems like a subtle-ish packmate tip. Now, I did much the same thing, thinking that Noggie couldn't possibly be packmate to Gwath, but since I know my role and not Elf's I need to be critical of this behavior, as I expect people to say the same of me. The last part, again, packmate advice. "Make a smooth vote, or you're in deep Padawan Poo[h]."




I'm sorry, Nogrod, I saw, but I didn't observe. Looking at Nogrod's DAY 2 vote again, about the only way I can see Nogrod being a wolf is if Gwath was a sacrificial wolf, so you're probably innocent. *casts a sideways glance at Lommy* Hear the man out. Vote Nerwen.

Now that we know that was the case, this looks especially bad. Again, I made the same mistake, but since Elf has had so many other things suspicious about his posts, this is worrisome.





Sally, you said something about strange ties. How strangely? Faith, even with losing my wits. I could kick myself for trusting Nogrod.

My last post yesterDAY was cross posted, but when I saw that I had cross-posted (including with Nogrod's post saying that I had lit a fire, but I didn't cross post with his statement saying he had already cast a clear and convincing vote for a wolf), the deadline had already past.

Possible. If this is the case, I am truly sorry, but I cannot trust anyone anymore, not after what happened with Noggie.




I've been wondering, how likely is it that there were four wolves in this village? In post #204 Legate said, "if we have three wolves..." He later says there could be two or three. We know there were more than two. Am I just being too pessimistic here?

Legate, I'd say she did directly interact with Nogrod.

In the very next post Sally quotes this statement without an "originally posted by..." and says,

Defending me in a way. So if he's the other wolf he's definitely continuing the set-up job on me.






EDIT IN ADVANCE: I'm posting all this just to make sure I don't have to go through and find it all again. Then I'll add in my bits. Sorry, but I'm sick of having my posts get eaten, so I'm going to be a little shady and edit my way into a post. Thanks for understanding!

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 12:41 PM
Oh my gosh! It did it again!

Nerwen
05-09-2008, 12:52 PM
We're running out of time. Looking at those quotes you provide, Sally, I think I'll give it a try–

++The Elf Warrior.

Of course if it is Sally after all, I'll feel like a right idiot. Ah well.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

Mithalwen
05-09-2008, 12:53 PM
Difficult... nearly read through and find reasons to trust Kath and Oddie and suspect still Legate and Sally ...... Was sally choosing between her two companions in 171? Was Legate part of the elaborate trio of day one interaction...

Nerwen
05-09-2008, 12:56 PM
I know, I can't get a clear lead on anyone– it's almost random now...:(

Mithalwen
05-09-2008, 12:58 PM
I think that either Legate or Sally is likeliest ...
you and EW less likely and Kath and Oddone least likely... though Kath has pulled the wool over my eyes frequently her behaviour seems ok

Mithalwen
05-09-2008, 12:58 PM
++Sally

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 12:58 PM
Well, unless a miracle occurs, and I doubt it will, I'm dying today. So let me take the opportunity to say thank you to everyone in the game. It'll be my last game until fall, and I'll miss playing with all of you until then. I'll lurk around and watch games though, so make sure to make your posts enjoyable. ;)

Before I (possibly) go, I'd just like to say....erm, I really am an ordo. But that' okay. You'll probably do fine without me. :)

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 12:59 PM
Yup. I'm dead. Oh well. Good luck in the game, everybody. Kill the wolf/wolves.

May as well go out voting for my main suspect:

++Elf

Mithalwen
05-09-2008, 01:00 PM
close decision but can't help thinking that 171 was that she would prefer to keep the most experienced and dominant packmate..

Mithalwen
05-09-2008, 01:00 PM
Sally don't do that!!!! gah

Mithalwen
05-09-2008, 01:02 PM
Aieee I missed teh EW stuff in my own review ...*starts self kicking again*

Nerwen
05-09-2008, 01:02 PM
Not another tie?

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 01:03 PM
Day four votes....my last attempt at helping the village....
Legate-->Sally at 3:58am
Oddie-->Sally at 2:28pm
Kath-->Legate at 6:14pm
Nerwen-->Elf at 6:52pm
Mith-->Sally at 6:58pm
Sally-->Elf at 6:59pm
No voter: Elf



Good luck everyone!

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 01:03 PM
Not another tie?


No. No more ties. I'm dead. :(

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 01:04 PM
Aieee I missed teh EW stuff in my own review ...*starts self kicking again*

That's okay. Don't fret; I deserved the lynch for following Noggie so blindly. Just make sure to catch the last wolf/wolves for me, will you? :)

Nerwen
05-09-2008, 01:06 PM
I'll do my best. Fare thee well.

satansaloser2005
05-09-2008, 01:08 PM
I'll do my best. Fare thee well.

Yup. You too. Oh, and look at what Noggie said about Elf. Sorry, didn't get a chance to post that due to my computer issues. I think it's really important though.

I really wish Elf had voted though. *giggles* Oh, if he got mod-fired for some reason and was the last wolf, I would die....again....:P




EDIT: Where the devil IS Menel, anyway?

Meneltarmacil
05-09-2008, 01:35 PM
Sorry, guys, I forgot about the deadline. I'll have a death scene posted shortly.

EDIT: Here goes:

Once again, it was time for an execution. Sally was the unlucky one, and the noose was once again tied.

"I really wish you wouldn't do this," the therapist pleaded. "I think you're all suffering from severe paranoia. If you would just calm down and..."

"Yeah, we're pretty paranoid, and it's all because of you and your furry friends," said Oddwen.

"It's time we cured this paranioa by getting rid of the cause!" shouted Legate. "Lynch the wolf!"

"No, wait! You can't do this! I'm....GACKKKKKKK...."

Sally was dead, and it was quite clear that she was a perfectly Ordinary Villager.

Alive:
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Oddwen
The Elf-warrior

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.
Volo (Ordinary Villager): Turned into a hunting trophy by Wolves on Night 3.
Nogrod (Werewolf): Killed with thrown ale barrels by villagers on Day 3.
Thinlomien (Ordinary Villager): Impaled on a hat rack by Wolves on Night 4.
satansaloser2005 (Ordinary Villager): Failed to cure the mass paranoia and hung by villagers on Day 4.

Night 5 will commence.

Meneltarmacil
05-10-2008, 11:29 AM
Nerwen was up fairly late that night, and was surprised when a big dog entered her office.

"Well, you're a pretty-looking thing," she said. "What seems to be the trouble?"

Try as she might, Nerwen couldn't figure out who this dog belonged to, and couldn't even remember seeing a dog like this anywhere...until...

"Hey, wait a minute! You're not a dog! You're a..."

"GRRRRRRRRRRRR!" The wolf pounced and devoured her. All that was left in the morning was a skeleton.

Alive:
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Oddwen
The Elf-warrior

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.
Volo (Ordinary Villager): Turned into a hunting trophy by Wolves on Night 3.
Nogrod (Werewolf): Killed with thrown ale barrels by villagers on Day 3.
Thinlomien (Ordinary Villager): Impaled on a hat rack by Wolves on Night 4.
satansaloser2005 (Ordinary Villager): Failed to cure the mass paranoia and hung by villagers on Day 4.
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Eaten by Wolves on Night 5.

Thus begins Day 5.

Kath
05-10-2008, 01:39 PM
Well then, it sounds like the usual three wolves situation as there seems to be only one left.

I'm thinking I'm probably going to stick with Legate as my main suspect for this. I do wonder though why Nerwen was killed so I will have a look at that. Also, Oddwen pinged out at me when I read the narration, purely because she wasn't dead. I don't know why, I thought she would be.

Anyway, back later.

Oddwen
05-10-2008, 11:48 PM
Hmm, it is beings of the quiet...


Still kicking myself for letting up on Nogrod at the last minute - again .. having harped on the same note for 3 days I once again doubted myself ..and failed ot vote for the woluf when it counted.


...and did vote for someone else quite randomly.


So very much true to type then Oddone? :rolleyes: And given your vote you cant' condemn me to much for my choice.... Trouble is I know I work too much from instinct - but sometimes they can be right though I can't really explain why they feel so right, eg Nogrod.

Not just that the vote was for Sally that it was random - you haven't even mentioned anyone* except Nogrod and once Legate in passing - suspicion of whom you blew off because of a bit of formal-title-related foolery.

Argh, going cross-eyed...

My thoughts:

Either Legate or EW are a Wolf

Either EW or Mith are a Cobbler

Kath, still not convinced either way. More inclined to think not.



* I'm not counting the mentions of Agan & Nerwen on Day one, mostly because that was part of another game.

Kath
05-11-2008, 04:43 AM
This is ... scarily quiet. Why did the wolves have to kill Lommy? We could have had floods of posts with her by this time. :D

Anyway. A Cobbler, really? In such a small game I'm not sure that would really be viable. I mean, we have done extremely well in getting two wolves so early, but had they not been quite so boisterous it could have taken us Days to find them. To add in a Cobbler as well would be cruel I think. At any rate, the Cobbler only wins if there is a wolf left, so we get the last wolf and the Cobbler goes too.

Mith ... I can sort of see the point with her. She hasn't been quiet but she has said little of substance, focusing often on herself and not really contributing to the discussion much. I don't know what to make of her right now, and that's rare.

I hate that Legate is not here. I want him to reply to what I said yesterDay because although I'm tempted to vote for him again having read over the thread again I'm not sure I can when we've had just nothing else from him.

There's been so little from EW. I really should go back and take a look at that. Someone brought all the posts up yesterDay so I may do that.

Oddwen is still buzzing for me. The Cobbler suggestion so late in the game is only adding to it. This one is pure gut feeling, but then so is Legate really, and I can't be right on both.

Right now, I'm leaning Legate, but we shall see.

Mithalwen
05-11-2008, 10:00 AM
Ok Oddwen, I am not a wolf. I am not a cobbler. Am befuddled innocent.

Not surprised Nerwen was killed, seemed innocent but what I can't decide is whether she was killed because she was on the right track with Elf .....

Or wheter that would be too obvious.

I have to rethink all my suspicions ... maybe I was left alive becasue I was completely on the wrong track.


I am here until the end . Hope things will be clearer. I would so much rather be in my garden onthis scorchin' afternoon.... nvm.. a wolf to catch.

Oddwen
05-11-2008, 12:05 PM
So. Then.

I'm going to either vote EW or Legate today - and very soon.

Anyway. A Cobbler, really? In such a small game I'm not sure that would really be viable. I mean, we have done extremely well in getting two wolves so early, but had they not been quite so boisterous it could have taken us Days to find them. To add in a Cobbler as well would be cruel I think. At any rate, the Cobbler only wins if there is a wolf left, so we get the last wolf and the Cobbler goes too.

*shrug* Just wondering - the talk about "four wolves?" seems a bit forced.

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-11-2008, 12:19 PM
All right, I just arrived and had a chance to read (not too deeply) what happened yesterDay and now. I can't do much more than sum up my current feelings (however I didn't have time to reevaluate all facts, so it's really from scratch):

Mith I think rather innocent. I thought at first (at the end of Day 1), and hope I can say it now, that she's a Seer and later I thought that she's a Ranger, but it doesn't look anymore that there are any other Gifteds... but nevertheless I think her innocent.

Oddwen or Kath can be either way. Now what... Oddwen could be more like a slip-under-the-radar-wolf, her posts make her feel "slippery" to me, where Kath I would probably need to look at more closely... but that's the time.

Elf is silent as grave, although there was something from him. If he's a wolf, for such a quietness I don't think it'd be a well-deserved victory anyway.

I would maybe have something to say to what was said here, but that will need time. Maybe if I'm alive next day...

As for what someone said here, I thought originally that there were two wolves and I simply counted on that, that's all. That I also think is the thing to blame for my bad reasoning of clearing Nogrod after Gwath's death (if there were two wolves, that'd be imaginable in a less probable way).

Kath, could you please sum up your question or whatever you have for me in some easy and short way again if you wish me to answer it? I honestly am not going to look for what it was, so if you wish me to answer it, please re-ask. Or was it you about this two-wolf thing?

Also whatever you ask could add something for me to form a better picture of you, hopefully... so if you are around...

Otherwise, no idea about voting today, will have to think yet: anyone from the lower three mentioned above (nice expression) is possible.

Mithalwen
05-11-2008, 12:23 PM
Elf didn't vote yesterday did he ...

Not helpful... not sure why LEgate thought I was the Seer day one ..after all I was fairls singlemnindedly pursuing Nogrod... would that have looked seerlike to anyone but a wolf?

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-11-2008, 12:31 PM
Not helpful... not sure why LEgate thought I was the Seer day one ..after all I was fairls singlemnindedly pursuing Nogrod... would that have looked seerlike to anyone but a wolf?

You had some talk about Gifted, and later on some other day something about Ranger...

Oddwen
05-11-2008, 12:33 PM
I will cast my vote for

++LEGATE

For reasons I have stated before - reactions to Nogrod & Gwath, also because his earlier suspicions of Kath look like a setup to me.

Late for work as usual,
~Oddwen

edit: oh sure now it gets busy...

Mithalwen
05-11-2008, 12:34 PM
Nogrod made a list way back - he strongly suspected Gwath which was no doubt strategy

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=554553&postcount=52

Now assumiong the likeliest candidates are EW and Legate, one is in teh second level of suspicion the other a don't know.

I left my notes behind but there was some reason that Oddie didnt' look so wolvish and I would doubt that she would have declared both packmates guilty in post 45 ... though with Kath.... ;)


EW would be a v low flying wolf indeed ... scary

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-11-2008, 12:40 PM
It's now a question for me... if Elf didn't vote yesterDay, is there a chance of having him modfired? I cannot vote for either of Odd or Kath with saying that I have summed all facts about them and made my decision on really doing that. It will be more of a blinder shot. Under these circumstances, there will be one thing for choosing Oddie merely because of that if she is a wolf, I would bear it worse that I didn't vote her, simply because if I went on just "first sight" or "gut feeling", I'd say her most likely to be a wolf.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-11-2008, 12:51 PM
I left my notes behind but there was some reason that Oddie didnt' look so wolvish and I would doubt that she would have declared both packmates guilty in post 45 ... though with Kath.... ;)

You mean, Kath would have mentioned two packmates in #45, not Oddwen... I guess it's an elipse in sentence.

Hmm, what now? This thing actually when looking at (mentioning two packmates) would make me lean more towards Oddwen, if I were to vote for one of the two and not Elf. Simply: are you others going to vote Elf? If not, I'm going for Odd.

Mithalwen
05-11-2008, 12:51 PM
OK

Kath seems ok (fatal last words?)

Oddwen's voting record is impeccable .. too good?

Elf Warior .... less inclined to find guilty .. very disengaged wolf.. .would have expected him to vote yesterday ... tactic ? This game has little scope for lilling hte quite on principle ...

Legate ... havent lost early suspicions but is the Nogrod Gwate Legate trio too much arghhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Mithalwen
05-11-2008, 12:53 PM
Sory stream of consciousness .... Leggy .. Ican never be sure of Kath but she seem most innocent now. I will not be voting for her today. Otherwise note certain .. beginning to doubt Oddwen ...

Kath
05-11-2008, 12:55 PM
Leaping in with seconds to spare here, so I'm voting now.

++LEGATE

Questions I'll look at in a second!

Mithalwen
05-11-2008, 12:56 PM
OK

++ Legate

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-11-2008, 12:56 PM
Well, I remember one game when it was about my and Mith's vote and it ended with me being lynched because we didn't decide in time.

++Oddwen

EDIT: All right, x-ed, what? Never mind. What did Kath say when she voted me? Must read. And Mith, if you are a wolf who jumped on it, nice. Bye, folks...

EDIT 2: All right, Kath didn't say anything. Well then just what I said. See to it, people, those of you who are innocent. Good luck, there's still chance, for us who have died, so that it wasn't in vain... I'm leaving to talk to my frogs...

Mithalwen
05-11-2008, 12:57 PM
May as well be unanimous ... THough if it is Oddie....

The Elf-warrior
05-11-2008, 12:58 PM
++Legate

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-11-2008, 01:00 PM
Ha! He appeared :p

Meneltarmacil
05-11-2008, 03:35 PM
Go ahead and shoot me, I really screwed up this time. Death scene shortly.

EDIT: Here we go:

Legate of Amon Lanc sat by the riverbank, with a group of frogs gathered around him. He as telling them a story, and they were ribbiting their comments to him. It was really an interesting sight, but it was cut short by the angry lynch mob that had just showed up.

"All right, you. We've had enough of your killings, you foul beast!" announced The Elf-warrior.

"What? I'm no wolf!" Legate protested.

"Don't even try," said Kath. "My turtles know the truth. Heard it directly from the frogs, in fact."

"What?" Legate was clearly surprised. He turned back to look at the frogs. "You... you were trying to get me killed all along?"

The frogs responded quite forcefully. Over 100 frogs leaped upon Legate, smothering him. As they hopped all over him, the villagers couldn't bear to look. When it was all over, only a skeleton was left of Legate of Amon Lanc.

Unfortunately, the skeleton was not that of a wolf.

Alive:
Kath
Mithalwen
Oddwen
The Elf-warrior

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.
Volo (Ordinary Villager): Turned into a hunting trophy by Wolves on Night 3.
Nogrod (Werewolf): Killed with thrown ale barrels by villagers on Day 3.
Thinlomien (Ordinary Villager): Impaled on a hat rack by Wolves on Night 4.
satansaloser2005 (Ordinary Villager): Failed to cure the mass paranoia and hung by villagers on Day 4.
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Eaten by Wolves on Night 5.
Legate of Amon Lanc (Ordinary Villager): Skeletonized by angry frogs on Day 5.

Night 6 starts now.

Meneltarmacil
05-12-2008, 01:08 PM
Waking up that morning, the villagers expected the worst.

However, when they examined their numbers, they met with a pleasant surprise.

Nobody was dead. Everyone was still standing.

Alive:
Kath
Mithalwen
Oddwen
The Elf-warrior

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.
Volo (Ordinary Villager): Turned into a hunting trophy by Wolves on Night 3.
Nogrod (Werewolf): Killed with thrown ale barrels by villagers on Day 3.
Thinlomien (Ordinary Villager): Impaled on a hat rack by Wolves on Night 4.
satansaloser2005 (Ordinary Villager): Failed to cure the mass paranoia and hung by villagers on Day 4.
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Eaten by Wolves on Night 5.
Legate of Amon Lanc (Ordinary Villager): Skeletonized by angry frogs on Day 5.

Day 6 has dawned.

Kath
05-12-2008, 02:09 PM
So ... do we have a Ranger or a forgetful wolf? If the former then fantastic and let us say no more about it in the hope we keep them safe. If the latter ... I think only the Elf Warrior really fits there. That sounds harsh I know but we haven't seen a great deal from him and he did only appear at the last minute yesterDay. Then again, so did I.

I actually think the Ranger explanation more likely. Three wolves, Seer, Ranger. Just like an old time game.

The Elf-warrior
05-12-2008, 03:27 PM
Even if I was a wolf, I'm wasn't a forgetful wolf. I was on the Internet for a long while after the deadline, so I had plenty of opportunity to PM a victim to Menel. But I could still be a thwarted wolf, but I'm not.

Despite our good fortune, we innocents are in grave imminent danger. If we lynch an innocent (such as me) and the wolf kills an ordo then we will be left with two people, one wolf and one innocent, and the wolf will have triumphed. The only exceptions to this grim scenario are if the ranger protects the wolf's target or the wolf kills the hunter and the hunter kills the wolf. So think carefully. (That also applies to me. Poor Legate.) I'm going through the posts of our remaining villagers, so I'll probably have more to say later.

Kath
05-12-2008, 03:33 PM
Well the Elf Warrior may have just played a very clever move but I'm finding that post is making me trust him. I wasn't keen on the constant assertion of innocence but then I did just lambast him.

Which leaves me with Mith and Oddwen. I've thought Mith has been playing ... as though she's a little distant. But what she has not been is very defensive or panicky, which is what I associate with her if she's a wolf. Sure, she could have learnt to fool me, but I'm going to have to hope not!

Which leaves me with Oddwen. I simply haven't played with Oddwen enough to know what her usual style is. The only thing that has occurred to me is that she has been playing very sensibly. What little I do recall tells me she's usually more of a Nilp-type player, so the mere fact that we've had analysis and sensible posts makes me wonder.

Of course, considering I was so hopelessly wrong about Legate it's probably a good idea to ignore everything I'm saying. :rolleyes: But EW is right, we're running out of time.

Oddwen
05-12-2008, 09:44 PM
What little I do recall tells me she's usually more of a Nilp-type player, so the mere fact that we've had analysis and sensible posts makes me wonder.

Ooooooo...what a thing to say about your own father... :p

EW's post above is just funky. His post, let me quote it.

Even if I was a wolf, I'm wasn't a forgetful wolf. I was on the Internet for a long while after the deadline, so I had plenty of opportunity to PM a victim to Menel. But I could still be a thwarted wolf, but I'm not.


...? "I'm not a wolf, if I were a wolf I'd be a competent one, nobody thwarts me"?

The Elf-warrior
05-12-2008, 10:58 PM
++Kath

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 06:23 AM
Blimey this is a suprise .. . I think there has been one missed kill before. A ranger is not imossible though I am suprised that neither Lommie or Nerwen were protected before ... they seemed the most innocent. However at least we can discount a cursed or we wouldn't be here.

I need ot refresh my memory but I recall thinking Kath most innocent - though with darling duckie... I could never be 100 %

So my choice will probably be between Elf and Oddie....

Now given the circumstances I wonder if it is significant that noone has claimed Rangerdom. Not at all sure. And I am not asking. Not sure we would trust such a claim now.

Kath
05-13-2008, 06:41 AM
Mu huh? Where did that come from EW? Just as I was starting to think you innocent as well.

Missed kills have happened on a few occasions Mith. But I don't think it odd that no one has revealed as Ranger. It is of far more use to keep quiet in the hope that they can save someone again.

Anyway, would love a reason for that vote from EW. It's just so ... random. Maybe whoever mentioned that there is a Cobbler was actually right! I call him as innocent so in an attempt to save his wolvish friends he votes me to get me to vote him. I don't know. I think this stage of the game is actually worse than Day 1. You've got about as little surety to work from and the stakes are higher.

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 06:47 AM
Tell me about it - I was really almost hoping to be the kill so I didn't have to make this decision.... If we do have a Ranger then I think a cobbler is a possibility to even things up - since the classic game for a small number is 3 wolves & a seer ...

Going to have to reread and think. That vote is plausible for a cobbler drawing the fire from an Oddwen wolf...

Hmm lots to think about but not a lot more I can do til after work.. sorry.

Kath
05-13-2008, 06:50 AM
Going to have to reread and think. That vote is plausible for a cobbler drawing the fire from an Oddwen wolf...
Well that's what I thought, but then you have to remember that the Cobbler has no more information on who the wolf is than anyone else. Deciding that EW is a Cobbler doesn't mean it's an automatic assumption that whoever he is protecting is the wolf.

Oddwen
05-13-2008, 08:34 AM
arrrrrgh

DON'T VOTE EW!

Pretending to be a cobbler would be a brilliant, brilliant plan for a wolf but I don't think he's a wolf!

I'm sorry I didn't protect Lommy, but I had protected her the night before - I protected Mith last night.

Really late for work,

++KATH

Kath
05-13-2008, 08:37 AM
I wasn't planning to, but given your vote for me I will vote you I think. Mith, I'm assuming you are innocent here, if you are we need to agree on who to vote for. We have to create a tie and hope it's not me that goes!

Oddwen says don't vote EW, I'm actually inclined to agree. I would far rather vote her. How about you?

Kath
05-13-2008, 08:40 AM
Hmm, I should probably add some reasoning for this. Oddwen as Ranger is somewhat unbelievable to me. For one thing, she may have protected Mith, but if she is a wolf saying she protected Mith is a good idea considering she's been thought of as innocent for a couple of Days. Second, why does she think I am a wolf over EW, there is no reasoning. Finally, why does she not think EW is a wolf in general?

So ... what now?

Kath
05-13-2008, 10:29 AM
Well I can wait no longer. ToDay of all Day's I can't be here at the deadline. :rolleyes:

++ODDWEN

Good luck whichever one of you is actually innocent. I desperately hope it's Mith!

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 11:10 AM
Oh &@££@%$


This is going to be fun...not...

So much for my theories ... so choices:

Make a futile vote for EW

Make a decisive vote for Kath

Make a tying vote for Oddwen and hope the dice are as kind to us as they were before.


Need to think.... and Mith's little brain is befuddled.

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 11:46 AM
I just caught myself checking to see if anyone else had posted .... sad that :rolleyes:

Obviously noone is going to answer but maybe if I "think aloud" it will help.

Big issue of course is a kill-less night. Various options:

No kill due to cursed - not possible since would mean 2 wolves/2 ordos +wolves would have already won.

No kill due to ranger. Possible but not certain. Oddwen has claimed to be the ranger. Need to fully consider the implications of this.

No kill due to wolf not choosing a kill either by accident or design.

Other issues to consider - cobbler.

Voting behaviour especially today.


TBC

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 12:03 PM
Well at least not so much to look at ...out of 342 posts Kath and Oddie have made 16 each, scarcely more than Menel, and EW has made 9.... only 3 more than Lhuna who died first!

But not a lot to go on.

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 12:56 PM
What a long time it has taken to come to an inconclusive answer (really I have the soul of an elf in such matters!)

I don't believe that Oddwen is a ranger. I believe that Lommie and Nerwen were both obvious kills after the safer choices of Agan and Volo. I don't see any sign of Ranger activity other than the absence of a death last night and that is not conclusive. I believe that after a no vote day one, Oddwende sure she got a perfect record as far as she could by voting for her fellows.

I don't have time to type up my notes ... basically I don't understand Oddwen's behaviour today or EWs.

I have to choose between Kath and Oddie, and Kath rings true,


TO the roll of Menel's dice perhaps

++Oddwen

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 12:58 PM
But Kath darling if you are the wolf I shall buy a peking duck on the way home and think of you!!!

Nogrod
05-13-2008, 01:00 PM
Day has closed.

The game is over.

A collective lottery by myself, Lommy and Greenie + a narration to follow soon.

Nogrod
05-13-2008, 01:21 PM
The remaining quartet gathered into the village square surprised that all four of them were still alive. They looked at each other questioningly.

Finally Kath opened her mouth “Were we helped or was the wolf lazy last Night? If it’s the latter it must have been you poetaster!”

The Evil Wizard defended himself staunchly: “I could be a thwarted wolf, but I'm not.”

“I’m an ordo – remember. I said that on Day 1 already.” Mith reminded the others.

There was a quietness while everyone turned to look at Oddwen who hadn’t said a word.

“Okay. Then you’ve been too sensible Oddwen and you must be the wolf!” called Kath and drew her turtle-nail trimming blade from her pouch.

The poet was clearly shaken by this sudden and violent threat and backed away: “I’ll vote for you Turtle-lady!”

Mith tried to cool the situation down entering a new subject: “Funny no one has claimed to be the ranger…”

“I’m the ranger. And Kath should die!” Cried Oddwen.

Kath didn’t lower her blade but continued pointing it towards Oddwen: “So you too vote for me now?” She made a pause but then felt she needed to say something: “Well we need to create a tie… Hmm, I should probably add some reasoning for this… well… she’s been thought of as innocent lately. That’s why you’re the wolf!”

There was a long silence. It felt like everyone had said just about everything there was in their minds.

Only Mith tried to reason things out: “This is not fun.” She looked at all the other three waiting for her to speak her mind. “Okay. Obviously noone is going to answer so I’ll just think aloud…”

It took her a while to arrive at her conclusion. “Basically I don't understand Oddwen's behaviour today or EWs and I have to choose between Kath and Oddie, and Kath rings true. So be it. Let’s roll a dice!”

The poetaster picked up a coin. “Okay the heads will be Oddwen and the tails will be Kath. Okay?”

The others nodded in silence and followed the coin as it flipped into the air and revolved to the ground.

“Tails!” Oddwen shouted in joy.

“Too bad”, whispered Mith.


The next Night the wolf killed the other survivor and in the morning it felt like hungry again.

The wolves have won.


Alive:

Oddwen (Wolf)

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.
Volo (Ordinary Villager): Turned into a hunting trophy by Wolves on Night 3.
Nogrod (Werewolf): Killed with thrown ale barrels by villagers on Day 3.
Thinlomien (Ordinary Villager): Impaled on a hat rack by Wolves on Night 4.
satansaloser2005 (Ordinary Villager): Failed to cure the mass paranoia and hung by villagers on Day 4.
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Eaten by Wolves on Night 5.
Legate of Amon Lanc (Ordinary Villager): Skeletonized by angry frogs on Day 5.
Kath (Ordinary Villager): lynched according to the tossing of a coin on Day6.
Mithalwen & The Elf-warrior (Ordinary Villagers): Devoured by the last remaining wolf on Night7 and Day7 respectively.

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 01:25 PM
Serves me right for not trusting my hunches more... :(

So glad it wasn't Kath, for once.

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 01:28 PM
But I always choose tails..... can I appeal the result?

Surely this decision can be challenged ..one of the wolves involved in the casting of the die..

Where is The Saucepan Man when you need him?

This could be Florida 2000 or Zimbabwe 2008

Or I could try to be gracious in defeat..... :p

Nogrod
05-13-2008, 01:32 PM
Just to clarify the procedure in the end.

I called Lommy and Greenie and then told the rules (Odd = heads & Kath = tails) to Greenie and Lommy threw the coin there.

I must say this was close!

But kudos to Oddwen for playing a superb game!

And everyone! I'll post a few extra-applauds a bit later...

EDIT: X'd with Mith... :rolleyes:

one of the wolves involved in the casting of the die..and one innocent and one total outsider... so quite a balanced team I'd say. :cool:

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 01:36 PM
I would hardly call your children independent observers... we only have your word that they were involved at all...:eek:

Legate of Amon Lanc
05-13-2008, 02:04 PM
Ha! So it was Oddwen - I was right after all! Hm, hm, seems my hunches proved to be really good in this game. Maybe I should trust them more. But congrats, Oddie! You managed to balance it from the beginning so that you weren't on the top of the suspicion. However had I been more experienced in playing with you, maybe I would not have been unsure on what is or is not your playing style and may have voted for you on Day 1.

I must say I enjoyed this particular game - especially you, sir Nog, there were times when I would have joyfully torn you into pieces. ;) But good game, very good game. And thanks to Menel of course... and then all players...

I feel only pity for our Seer, but, that just happens... (and I would like to ask now: was anyone aware of her, or suspected her of Giftedness? And Lhuna, what was your first dream?)

Mithalwen
05-13-2008, 02:19 PM
[QUOTE=Legate of Amon Lanc;555515]
I must say I enjoyed this particular game - especially you, sir Nog, there were times when I would have joyfully torn you into pieces. ;) QUOTE]

Join the queue ;)

BTW I just would like to mention that when I suggested you voted for me so I could go home and drink champagne it wasn't meant as threat to quit just that it was a really hot day and family members were due back from France with champagne - which is a too rare but great pleasure of my life ... and I am afraid I am not enough of a WW addict to not find sipping a chilled glass or three more than appealing....

Nogrod
05-13-2008, 02:52 PM
I must say I enjoyed this particular game - especially you, sir Nog, there were times when I would have joyfully torn you into pieces.
Join the queue Well. I indeed had an idea to try to make myself look somewhat suspicious just to gain enough votes so that no-one would wonder why I was still alive if the game went further and I was still alive. I mean I have been caught once or twice just because of that: "why haven't you been killed during the Nights Noggie?" But I guess I overdid it... even if I thought I was quite reasonable, well most of the time... :rolleyes:

Special kudos to Kath for psychology! She said on Day1 or 2 that I looked like I was a wolf not entirely happy to be a wolf - or something. And she was soo right! I really cursed when I got Menel's "happy-happy-congrats!" PM of being a wolf. I just had no inspiration or will to be one. I would have loved to be an ordo indeed.

But no can do. And in the end we fared quite well. :D

Kudos also to Lommy for her hunches - as well as Mith and Legate for spotting me head on.

And thank's Sally for standing by me when the going got rougher. And as no joke this is. Even if one is a wolf it feels nasty when everyone is at your tail and then someone speaking good of you feels actually really great. :)

And Gwath performed his part just great! It was sad it ended so early as a run between us two. It would have been nicer if we'd had one Day more to create confusion by attacking each other. And pointing to my earlier words about my enthusiasm this time I would actually been quite as happy to go myself first...

satansaloser2005
05-13-2008, 03:23 PM
And thank's Sally for standing by me when the going got rougher. And as no joke this is. Even if one is a wolf it feels nasty when everyone is at your tail and then someone speaking good of you feels actually really great. :)



Talk to the sig, Nog, talk to the sig. *glares*

;)


Well, it was an enjoyable game, even if I did end up being an idiot for most of it. Well played all, and especially Noggie. Maybe I'll actually start speaking to you again eventually. *pause for though* Erm, never mind.


Anyway, on lunch break at work so I best be off. I'll be back to offer more commentary later. See you all then! :)

Lhunardawen
05-13-2008, 03:59 PM
I hate you, Oddwen.

I dreamt of Gwath the first Night, which is why I voted for him. Excellent that some of you picked that up.

I WISH!

Really, I dreamt of Agan first Night. I almost thought the wolves knew that, and so killed her Night 2, but that was impossible.

Noggie, I knew you were a lycan the first Day. That was a rather pathetic suspicion, that one you built about me and Volo.

More when I'm no longer in a hurry and stopped shaking enough to type properly.

Gah, Oddwen, I HATE YOU!

PS. I can't help adding...

Lhuna
- was just having a bit of craziness first Day
- because if she was too serious, she'll be lynched for being suspected a wolf
- it worked excellently :rolleyes:
- (I told you!) when she dies an innocent, the villagers ALWAYS lose
- should probably stop now

Please, Legate, sir...don't pity me. I pity myself enough. :D But as it turned out, it was a good thing RLwise to have died earlier, because that week turned out to be busier than I expected. I have to admit I wasn't holding on to much hope for the village when I died, but when you lynched 2 wolves in a row...

I still hate you, Oddwen. That was utterly brilliant.

Kath
05-13-2008, 04:10 PM
Mith, I love you, it's as simple as that. I'm so glad I can still peg you as innocent when it comes down to it and that you trusted me enough to vote. I mean, I don't see this as a loss for the innocents really. We lost on chance. I'm calling it a tie and so should you! :)

I saw you post about me possibly being an evil Ducky though ... does this experience make you fear me any less? :D

The Elf-warrior
05-13-2008, 05:18 PM
Auugh! I'm so sorry I got it wrong, especially after I warned everyone to get it right. Lhuna, I wouldn't have thought that you had dreamt of Aganzir. You said something along the lines of Aganzir is sweet and innocent, or so she claims. That seemed to me as if you had doubts about her innocence, which you wouldn't have had if you had dreamt of her.

Gwathagor
05-13-2008, 06:15 PM
Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha! Wolf victory! My side won! (probably because I died early...)

Gwathagor
05-13-2008, 06:17 PM
Oh, and I should concur that Oddwen played very very well.

Nerwen
05-13-2008, 07:57 PM
She did indeed. (I've been following this, of course.) I didn't suspect her at all until she started claiming to be the Ranger.

And Mithalwen... you came this close to winning the game for our side!

Oddwen
05-13-2008, 08:35 PM
Ahh! *faints* Whee!

Thank you, you're welcome, that's the game! :Merisu:

Good game everyone!

I didn't suspect her at all until she started claiming to be the Ranger.
For the record, I *did* send Mith's name in last night. I just retracted it later. :p
And yeah, it was crazy of me...I kind of had a better plan but as it was I ran to RL work without shoes or lunch.

However had I been more experienced in playing with you, maybe I would not have been unsure on what is or is not your playing style and may have voted for you on Day 1.

I'm not even sure I have a style anymore. This time, I tried playing with the mindset of an Innocent - I even dreamed that you were killing people. Yes. You, Legate, in cold blood and cruel glee crushed down Kath and Mith. But it wasn't in a Werewolf game. Shame, shame, shame. ;P

As a sort of peace offering, I would like to dedicate this song to every Seer wot was ever lynched. This would be

Evisse the Blue, lynched on Day One in Game III
Kitanna, lynched on Day Two in Game V
Volo, lynched on Day Four in game XXXIII
Lhunardawen, lynched on Day One in Game XLVI

And to you who lynch the wrong people, for making Our job just a little easier...Thank You.


*salutes* (http://audio.xanga.com/One_733t_p0z3r/6fe742222107/audio.html)

(apologies to Evanescence, and you)

The Elf-warrior
05-13-2008, 08:41 PM
I'm listening to it right now, and I'm enjoying it.

Thinlómien
05-14-2008, 03:03 AM
You can all blame me for our loss: I was the one to toss the coin... :rolleyes:

I'm so proud of myself. I really caught Nogrod, and Gwath too and this is the first game ever I voted for no innocent! Wow! (Admittedly it helped that I died so early...)

Although, there are some things to be less proud of. :D I think I owe you banging my head against the wall, don't I? *bangs head against the wall* I was so confident that either Kath or Legate was a wolf, even though now that I think of it, it really didn't even fit nicely. :rolleyes: Also, after Nog's lynch, I was 95% sure the remaining wolf was Sally - indeed, I even PMed to her saying "you nasty wolf, you killed me!"...

Anyway, it was a great game and everybody played well. Oddwen especially, I never suspected her seriously - only fleeting moments of slight suspicion, that's all. She truly deserved the victory.

Oddwen, it took me a while to realise that the song was not the original one. It's brilliant! It made me laugh so much.

Mithalwen
05-14-2008, 06:32 AM
Mith, I love you, it's as simple as that. I'm so glad I can still peg you as innocent when it comes down to it and that you trusted me enough to vote. I mean, I don't see this as a loss for the innocents really. We lost on chance. I'm calling it a tie and so should you!

I saw you post about me possibly being an evil Ducky though ... does this experience make you fear me any less?

I love you back.

While I am sure you would be insulted if I felt I could trust you completely, I did at least accept the inverse of my "acts like a wolf, sounds like a wolf, looks like a wolf - chances are it is a wolf theory" ie if Kath acts like an innocent and votes like an innocent ..there is a chance that she may be an innocent rather than playing her customary blinder as a wolf. :D

I just wish I had picked up on Oddwen quicker ... misled by that voting record too long alas.

I suppose like Butturbur I can see through a wall given long enough and I was lucky that EW was factored out.

Just so frustrating that a very considered decision had the same outcome as if I had just left it too fate....

I suppose the die was even at least - We got Nogrod not Nerwen so I felt that getting Oddie was less probable (clearly Gwath-Nogrod) doesn't quite count.

Oh many thanks to Menel for his choice of death. Day one posts are hard to judge so the chance to go on a Pythonesque flight of fancy was glorious. :D

Lhunardawen
05-14-2008, 06:53 AM
Ah, thanks Oddie, that makes me feel a wee bit better. I am in worthy company after all...

...but it doesn't make me feel good that Evisse, too, was lynched on Day 1, because that happened when the game was quite newly played THREE years ago!

EDIT: Goodness. Oddwen, you're a true genius. I've finally found the song that defines my life - er, death. :D

Oddwen
05-14-2008, 09:22 AM
Notice also, that game III was also the other one in which I was a victorious wolf :D

Volo
05-14-2008, 12:13 PM
As a sort of peace offering, I would like to dedicate this song to every Seer wot was ever lynched. This would be

[CENTER]Evisse the Blue, lynched on Day One in Game III
Kitanna, lynched on Day Two in Game V
The Saucepan Man, lynched on Day Five in Game XXXIII
Lhunardawen, lynched on Day One in Game XLVI

What about me? :'( I was lynched for being too noisy in Rikae's game.

This was a pleasant game. I find it most unfortunate that I had no time to participate in it enough or even read what happened after I died. :/ That's what happens when one is unorganized.

Oddwen
05-14-2008, 12:35 PM
Ah, apologies for that Volo - so...was SPM an actual Seer in that game? Or was that some other weird role name?

If there's anyone else I've missed, let me know.

Volo
05-14-2008, 01:14 PM
Ah, apologies for that Volo - so...was SPM an actual Seer in that game? Or was that some other weird role name?

If there's anyone else I've missed, let me know.

SPaM was the nasty Cobbler (and I knew it!!), I was the Medium (Seer) and was lynched alongside Mac the Wolf (didn't know it!!). Grr!

satansaloser2005
05-14-2008, 03:07 PM
Oh, by the way, Lhuna, who DID you dream of? It was driving me nuts for a while there, even after we caught Gwath.

Gwathagor
05-14-2008, 07:54 PM
Um, I was NOT caught. My fellows sacrificed me to a higher cause, and without their two votes, I probably would have lasted forever. So don't get all high and mighty.

satansaloser2005
05-14-2008, 09:02 PM
Um, I was NOT caught. My fellows sacrificed me to a higher cause, and without their two votes, I probably would have lasted forever. So don't get all high and mighty.



Well, I knew you were a wolf, so I use caught. Although your packmates DID sacrifice you, so I'll give it to you ;)

Lhunardawen
05-14-2008, 09:14 PM
Oh, by the way, Lhuna, who DID you dream of? It was driving me nuts for a while there, even after we caught Gwath.
It was Agan.

But Gwath, I voted for you, and I was sure you're lycanthropic even after I died. So I still say I caught you. :p

Gwathagor
05-15-2008, 08:23 AM
:D:p:D

Mithalwen
05-15-2008, 10:54 AM
Lhuna was very gifted indeed really becasue she provided so much correct info from one dream ... ie me and Agan innocent and that Gwath was as furry as they come...

Aganzir
05-15-2008, 11:01 AM
Eek.

Congrats, wolves. You did good work, and especially it was a pleasure to meet Oddwen (awesome song, by the way). :D
But why did you choose the kills you did? Why me? :(:p

On the night I died there were two persons I was pretty sure were wolves - Nog and Gwath. So you can imagine how frustrating it felt to see myself dead in the morning...

Thanks for the game, everyone.

Oddwen
05-15-2008, 07:10 PM
Hmmm...well Nogrod really wanted to kill you the first night, as you'd be "trusted" later on...I wanted to kill Legate the second night, but Nogrod overruled with Volo, 'cuz he'd be safer among more loud people...once I killed Noggie and was out from under the oppressive regime (:p) I went for Lommy & Nerwen, the safe kills, because everyone else was attacking each other.

Mithalwen
05-16-2008, 06:27 AM
Oddie -ROFL . Poor old Nogrod .... :p

Kath
05-21-2008, 01:59 PM
Do you know I never did get an answer for this .. . EW, why on earth did you vote for me that last Day? Excuse the apparent randomness of suddenly asking but it just occurred to me.

The Elf-warrior
05-27-2008, 08:18 PM
I think it was because Oddwen criticized my last post. If you're thinking that that doesn't make sense, I would agree, because a wolf would be more likely to use a highly suspicious innocent as a scapegoat instead of trying to buddy up with said innocent when the game is down to the wire. I hope this makes some sense. Also, it seemed to me that there was a good chance that one of the other two players had been dreamt of by the seer.