TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Mirandir]

It was a dull, dark and oppressive autumn day, where the rain clouds hung low in the sky but refused to spill their watery contents. It was on this day that a variety of Downers would, once again, be attending a gathering at yet another suspicious location.

It was a house, once again, this time surrounded by a landscape as bleak and depressing as the weather. The few trees that surrounded the structure were long devoid of leaves and would likely never again bear fruit. Where green grass should have stood there was only brown, and spotty patches at best. There were no sounds of birds or life of any kind to be heard, lending to the eerie silence.

"Why do we always get stuck at places like this?" Pitchwife asked, shaking his head.

"Clearly because Werewolf can only be played in super sketchy places!" sally chimed in perkily. The rest of the group turned to glare at her as the massive wooden gate began to move of its own volition. They turned to stare at it, covering their ears from the loud creaking being emitted from the ancient joints.

"Well, that's comforting," Boro murmured. A few nods echoed his sentiment.

The group stood in silence, staring at the now-open passageway. Morsul broke the silence. "Should we...go in?"

A few moments of casting frightened and confused glances around the group later, it was decided that they would indeed venture inside.

----

The inside of the house was just as ominous as the outside. The room they had entered into was vast, but desolate. Sheets covered many of the pieces of furniture, as well as the various forms of sculpture and artwork. Ancient tapestries hung on the walls, faded and fraying. Before anyone could wonder what to do next, the door behind them swung shut with a clang.

"Well this is all very true to form," Fea nodded knowingly, having attended these gatherings on more than one occasion.

"Does anybody else hear that?" Saucie asked nervously, jerking his head in the direction of an adjoining corridor. Those who had been whispering amongst themselves ceased, tilting their heads in the indicated direction.

"Footsteps!" Lari whispered helpfully. She was generally ignored as the cause of the noise presented itself in the form of a man. Crippled by years of disease, his footsteps were really more of a shuffle, his breath labored and uneven. The dim light emitting from a lone gas lamp reflected off his pallid face, illuminating the sharp angles formed by skin stretched too tightly over bone.

[Mirandir]

The man began to speak, in a voice that had not been used in ages.

"Welcome," he said with a slight bow, "to the House of Usher."

Panicked looks were thrown around the group. Many were familiar with the tale, which ended in ruin.

"Upon entering this house," he continued, "All but seven of you were infused with a spirit. Five of you have been infected by evil. You will attempt to kill your fellows when the Night falls, but only four work together. One of the others wants you to win and will help you trick the others during the Day. One of you will be able to protect someone from their fate, but for only two Nights. One is sworn to take down their choice in game if - or rather when - they are killed themselves. Yet one more will be able to have the role of another sent to them in a dream. The final two are paired together, and their survival depends on each other.

Before Night falls, you must pick one person to be killed. Your goal, of course, is to eliminate the evil ones before they eliminate you. If you fail to reach a decision, however, someone will be picked at random and killed.

Your choice must be in by the stroke of Night. If they are any later, they will not count. Abstaining for two or more Nights in a row will result in your death. One free pass will be granted per player for the duration of the game, but you must state that you are choosing to abstain or be penalized.

Good luck to you all."

With another slight bow, their host turned and disappeared back down the corridor from whence he had come, leaving the group standing in stunned silence.
---------------

IT IS NOW NIGHT 1.

[Mirandir]

"Um, so, this probably isn't the best time to bring this up," Mira said with a slight tremor in her voice, "But I really have to go to the bathroom."

Nienna shot her an exasperated look. "Can't it wait?"

"Um no. No it really can't."

"Okay fine," Nienna rolled her eyes, assuming teacher-mode. "Let's go find a bathroom."

With that, the pair headed in the direction of the corridor their host had recently left down. The others decided to discuss their plight.

"So if this works the way the others have," Greenie began slowly, "It's safe to assume that everything our host said was true and we do actually have to follow his rules."

"Meaning we have to kill someone?" Inzil asked.

"Looks that way," Nerwen answered. "Although they usually come back to life after the game is over."

"But who knows if this one is the same as the others," Loslote pointed out. Silence fell again.

"So we have four wolves, a werebear, a Hunter, a Ranger, a Seer, a cobbler, two Lovers, and seven ordos," Brinn counted off.

"So how should we-" Hakon's question was cut off by the sound screaming.

Fea jumped. "That was Mira!" Nobody decided to question how she knew that, as the two had been friends for years.

The group took off running down the corridor, coming to an abrupt halt near what they assumed was the bathroom. Lying on the floor, bleeding from the pores, was Nienna. Or at least, they assumed it was Nienna, since the face was covered in blood and Mira was still standing.

"What happened?" Nog asked, attempting not to panic.

"She was fine and then said she got really dizzy and-ow!" Mira doubled over, grabbing her stomach. When she had recovered enough to look up, the others saw that her face was covered in blood. "Never...got...my...cookies..." With that, she slid down the wall and said no more. She was dead.

A hush fell over the group.

The Dead:
Mira - moddess, death by Red Masque
Nienna - co-moddess, death by Red Masque

The Living:
Boro
Brinn
Fea
Greenie
Hakon
Inzil
Lari
Loslote
McCaber
Morsul
Nerwen
Nog
Pitchwife
Roa
sally
Saucepan Man
wilwa

IT IS NOW DAY 1. DISCUSS.

[Boromir88]

*sits on an unstable wooden chair. Tips back to reach a snuggly looking blanket*

*CRASH, BANG, BIFF*

*is passed out for a long time*

[Mirandir]

Awwww come on guys! 20 minutes into Day 1 and there's only one post to amuse your incredibly bored moddess at work. Not cool guys. Not cool. :p

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm here.

And for the Moddess: Pineapple.

[Mirandir]

Thank you. :D

[satansaloser2005]

Well it's statistically proven that at least one of the first three posters is evil so I was avoiding....crap. :p


(Also, I got really sick over the weekend so I'll probably not be on much if at all toDay. Sorry about that.)

Also, for the moddess. Random (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss6d3ogxfXc&feature=PlayList&p=4F7D4F3F2B624714&index=0).

[Nerwen]

Well it's statistically proven that at least one of the first three posters is evil so I was avoiding....crap.

True, at least that's how it seems to happen pretty much every game. Your self-consciousness on this point is very suspicious, by the way.:p


*sigh* I suppose we can look forward to dying in really horrible ways this game?

[satansaloser2005]

*sigh* I suppose we can look forward to dying in really horrible ways this game?

I'll be disappointed if you don't. Erm, I mean.... :p


Wow, it's quiet. Then again, that's probably good for me; less to read later. Going to bed now and likely won't bother to check until afternoon/evening my time, so until then. :D

[The Saucepan Man]

Awwww come on guys! 20 minutes into Day 1 and there's only one post to amuse your incredibly bored moddess at work.

I should imagine that most of the Living have been asleep and, like me, are only just waking up to the full horror of what has befallen us. In any event, I am here, although only momentarily until later in the Day.

Well it's statistically proven that at least one of the first three posters is evil …

Isn’t there a theory that the first poster is more often a Wolf than not? The question is whether Boro’s first post counts as a first post, given that he didn't actually say anything. If so, then he is clearly a Wolf. If not, then the finger of suspicion points at Lari. Mind you, if one of the first three posters is evil, then a sneaky Wolf would post third. Which means that sally is a Wolf.

Your self-consciousness on this point is very suspicious, by the way.

… as is your audacious accusation. :p

So, of those who have posted so far, my main suspects are Boro, Lari, sally and Nerwen. Er … ;)

On a more serious note, the Living number seventeen. There are five baddies (three out of four Wolves, on the basis that one of them is on our side, one Bear and one Cobbler). Which gives us, on pure percentages alone, just under a 30% chance of lynching a Baddie. And nearly a 25% chance of lynching a bad Wolf or the Bear. Of course, lynchings aren’t random, but those are quite good odds nevertheless, so I am fairly optimistic about our chances today.

Best thing that could happen to us would be to lynch the Bear, since that will limit the Night kills to one. On the other hand, being solitary hunters, Bears leave far less tracks than Wolves and so are more difficult to hunt down.

Back later.

[A Little Green]

The question is whether Boro’s first post counts as a first post, given that he didn't actually say anything. If so, then he is clearly a Wolf.Isn't posting something that doesn't actually say anything a most classic symptom of lycanthropy? :p So, Boro is a wolf in any case. And we're one wolf down. Easy, eh?

On a slightly more serious note, I've never played with a Bear before and just wondered if it's possible to ever catch one except by chance. I wouldn't want to be pessimistic, but...

I'll be semi-around for some hours now and more actively in my evening. And, because the DL is something like 7 AM for me, I'll vote around nine hours early.

[Nerwen]

On a slightly more serious note, I've never played with a Bear before and just wondered if it's possible to ever catch one except by chance. I wouldn't want to be pessimistic, but...

Another guilty post. The only question here is whether Greenie is the Bear, doing some preliminary gloating, or one of the other baddies trying to fix our attention on the Bear instead of the wolves.

[Nerwen]

So, of those who have posted so far, my main suspects are Boro, Lari, sally and Nerwen. Er … ;)

May I remind the village that last time Mr Recently-Fenrissed here claimed to find everyone suspicious, he was, in fact, a wolf?

[The Saucepan Man]

On a slightly more serious note, I've never played with a Bear before and just wondered if it's possible to ever catch one except by chance.

That depends how good the Bear is. No pressure, by the way, Bear. :p

May I remind the village that last time Mr Recently-Fenrissed here claimed to find everyone suspicious, he was, in fact, a wolf?

True. But, as you know, lightning never strikes in the same place twice. Except in horror stories, of course … er ... oh … ;)

[Inziladun]

Ah, the Red Death. Let us take pains it does not hold sway over us all.

Isn’t there a theory that the first poster is more often a Wolf than not?

I've heard that before, and I've been curious as to whether statistics would prove or disprove that notion.

Best thing that could happen to us would be to lynch the Bear, since that will limit the Night kills to one. On the other hand, being solitary hunters, Bears leave far less tracks than Wolves and so are more difficult to hunt down.

Well, the best thing that could happen is for us to lynch all those who are gunning for us, but the bear would be an excellent start. ;) It does seem to me they are more difficult to find, especially since they'd have no hesitation about doing away with a wolf, which could give the appearance of innocence.

Another guilty post. The only question here is whether Greenie is the Bear, doing some preliminary gloating, or one of the other baddies trying to fix our attention on the Bear instead of the wolves.

Could be either, but I can't necessarily read anything into that post of hers. You seem a bit quick to label her 'guilty'.

[Morsul the Dark]

I should imagine that most of the Living have been asleep and, like me, are only just waking up to the full horror of what has befallen us. In any event, I am here, although only momentarily until later in the Day.
Same here Just got up...

So nothing too suspicious from any of the posters Nerwen's being suspicious of other people, True. However to me unless something else comes up she may simply be trying to get the ball rolling I mean it Is day one not much to go on.

I agree the bear should be a top priority I mean we have to kill three(or is it four?)wolves to eliminate their nightly kill, but only one bear to get rid of his or her kill. Seventeen people... 5 wolf/bears... so 12 Innocents considering we lynch the wrong person. in theory 4 days is our time limit for the village...

I'll be around for another hour or so but the next time I'll be around is Much later have work then doing a show.

Now Sally to me again going only on her first post so that may change... seems like the agent I doubt she's a wolf but kind of in your face look at me type of deal. While attempting to hide seems in plain sight is a good strategy people end to write you offf if you're in the open.(It gave me two days)

[A Little Green]

Another guilty post. The only question here is whether Greenie is the Bear, doing some preliminary gloating, or one of the other baddies trying to fix our attention on the Bear instead of the wolves.Drat. Got caught already. But actually, I think we shouldn't concentrate solely on the Bear, and yet we shouldn't forget him either. When looking for wolves one plays with connections between people, and looking for those connections I guess I at least will forget completely about the Bear.

I'd want to have some suspicions but I don't yet.

[Nerwen]

But actually, I think we shouldn't concentrate solely on the Bear, and yet we shouldn't forget him either. When looking for wolves one plays with connections between people, and looking for those connections I guess I at least will forget completely about the Bear.

Mostly, killing the first wolf is not a matter of tracing connections, either– and there's only one Bear. We'll just lynch anyone who looks evil, as usual. Including the cobbler. In fact, after last game, make that especially the cobbler.;)

[The Saucepan Man]

I mean we have to kill three(or is it four?)wolves to eliminate their nightly kill

Good point. I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it. ;)

But actually, I think we shouldn't concentrate solely on the Bear, and yet we shouldn't forget him either.

Quite so. Killing the Bear early would be good from the point of view of limiting Nightly kills, but the Bear will be much more difficult to spot. So, we should not lose sight of either enemy.

I wonder whether it might be worth pondering the dynamic between the Wolves and the Bear further. From the point of view of both, double kills at Night is good because, the more innocents that die, the better their chance of victory. On the other hand, while the Bear is alive, there is always a reasonable chance that he may kill a Wolf at Night. Accordingly, while I presume that the Wolves don’t need to kill the Bear to win (although it is not entirely clear), they will no doubt want to get him out of the way at some point. In a funny kind of a way, therefore, the Innocents and the Wolves have a mutual interest in finding and killing the Bear. The same goes for the Innocents and the Bear, I suppose, since the Bear needs to stay alive to win and is as vulnerable as anyone, I think, to Wolf attacks. What do people think? Is there any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?

[The Saucepan Man]

You seem a bit quick to label her 'guilty'.I rather got the impression that Nerwen was being flippant. In which case, your readiness to seize upon this as suspicious is, in itself, somewhat suspicious.

[Morsul the Dark]

Hm... Now see the first post from Greenie seemed more just obvious hey this is who we're looking for type of deal but....

think we shouldn't concentrate solely on the Bear, and yet we shouldn't forget him either.
I guess I at least will forget completely about the Bear.

why Completely? You just said Don't forget him. Seems less of a let's look somewhere else type of deal to me more of a magician's slight of hand.

Also:

Drat. Got caught already.

Again same as Sally hiding in plain sight buys time...
Though since Sally started with that more than likely joking around but keeping watch
Greenie on the other hand seems to use this as a defense...

Inzil- especially since they'd have no hesitation about doing away with a wolf, which could give the appearance of innocence.

Agreed but I think the bear doesn't know who the wolves are so throwing hem under the bus would be more coincidence than anything else...

Isn’t there a theory that the first poster is more often a Wolf than not? The question is whether Boro’s first post counts as a first post, given that he didn't actually say anything. If so, then he is clearly a Wolf. If not, then the finger of suspicion points at Lari. Mind you, if one of the first three posters is evil, then a sneaky Wolf would post third. Which means that sally is a Wolf.
Hm... Boro's post may mean nothing It seems the first few posts were 1 am posts which in my book make them nonsensical too late to think posts...
Boro's was uneventful. Lari's post was also rather silly... Sally is a bit more on topic and a bit disturbing.

Boro- although passed out no signs of foulness... yet
Brinn-
Fea -
Greenie- most suspicious at this time.... though still to early to tell
Hakon-
Inzil- Didn't say much... then again only one post
Lari-Pineapples um not suspicious was it olives THEN there'd by something
Loslote-
McCaber-
Morsul- his fate shall be decided b the village
Nerwen- Either throwing out suspicion to coveror to start up the game.. latter I think
Nog-
Pitchwife-
Roa-
sally- may be an agent or just fooling around... too early to tell
Saucepan Man- Hmm... Names from a hat odds are against rewolfing But not impossible
wilwa-


and while one wolf may be on our side don't we need to eliminate All wolves to win? so Actually there's just slightly more than 1/3 chance of getting a baddie.

[A Little Green]

What do people think? Is there any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?Excellent point about the relations between wolves and bear. Hmm. The answer to your question is, of course, that we should use them to our own advantage. Wait... that didn't answer the question, did it? Ah well. At least we know that accusing and possibly helping in the lynch of a baddie doesn't make a player seem innocent (not that it normally does, either, but...) But that is certainly a question that deserves to be given some thought.

I feel oddly like doing a list but there's no point I suppose since a majority hasn't posted yet and I don't have much to say about the ones who have. :rolleyes:


EDIT: x-ed with SPM and Morsul

[Nerwen]

Good point. I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it. ;)

I don't see how we can possibly avoid it, except by losing. It is to be hoped, however, that we won't end up killing the Friendly Wolf before he has managed to leave trails to his packmates, or helped in other ways.

I wonder whether it might be worth pondering the dynamic between the Wolves and the Bear further. From the point of view of both, double kills at Night is good because, the more innocents that die, the better their chance of victory. On the other hand, while the Bear is alive, there is always a reasonable chance that he may kill a Wolf at Night. Accordingly, while I presume that the Wolves don’t need to kill the Bear to win (although it is not entirely clear), they will no doubt want to get him out of the way at some point. In a funny kind of a way, therefore, the Innocents and the Wolves have a mutual interest in finding and killing the Bear. The same goes for the Innocents and the Bear, I suppose, since the Bear needs to stay alive to win and is as vulnerable as anyone, I think, to Wolf attacks. What do people think? Is there any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?

*shrugs* They may end up working to our advantage– whether we can deliberately aid that is another matter.

EDIT:X'd since SPM at #20.

[The Saucepan Man]

and while one wolf may be on our side don't we need to eliminate All wolves to win? so Actually there's just slightly more than 1/3 chance of getting a baddie.In theory, yes. But if the friendly Wolf is the last remaining Wolf, I hardly think that he is going to suddenly turn on the remaining innocents ...

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm here- I'm going to catch up and then start commenting.

[A Little Green]

why Completely? You just said Don't forget him.Well my point was exactly that. I fear I'll forget about him while hunting for the connections between wolves, and wanted to caution others of doing exactly that. We shouldn't forget about the Bear; I just fear I accidentally might, at some point. Sorry if I was unclear.

By the way, I love it when people are around the same time as I. Dunno why.


EDIT: x-ed with SPM and Roa

[Morsul the Dark]

Good point. I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it.

Of course if the "bad" wolves figure out who the "Good" wolf is then it's just a matter of turning him in and if done properly we could lose "our" wolf easily enough. I doubt when he dies he'll be listed as "Good wolf" just "wolf" there'd be no way to tell if we got the right one.


Mostly, killing the first wolf is not a matter of tracing connections, either– and there's only one Bear. We'll just lynch anyone who looks evil, as usual. Including the cobbler. In fact, after last game, make that especially the cobbler.

HAHA Good point :D made my morning

aw man time to get read for work bleh just when things were heating up

[The Saucepan Man]

It is to be hoped, however, that we won't end up killing the Friendly Wolf before he has managed to leave trails to his packmates, or helped in other ways.Fair point, and one worth bearing in mind.

[Nerwen]

I rather got the impression that Nerwen was being flippant. In which case, your readiness to seize upon this as suspicious is, in itself, somewhat suspicious.

Also, perhaps the fact that at the same time Inzil seems to be sort of leaving himself the option of suspecting Greenie too:

Could be either, but I can't necessarily read anything into that post of hers. You seem a bit quick to label her 'guilty'.

However, he may have thought I was being more serious than I was. I should have thought my "Another guilty post" comment was pretty obviously over-the-top, though.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Inziladun]

Good point. I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it. ;)

Have I missed something? Since when is there a 'friendy' wolf?

"Upon entering this house," he continued, "All but seven of you were infused with a spirit. Five of you have been infected by evil. You will attempt to kill your fellows when the Night falls, but only four work together. One of the others wants you to win and will help you trick the others during the Day.

'Five infected by evil', but only four working together. I read that as four wolves, and a bear. And then one working for the evil side during the Day, the cobbler. If I'm misinformed in this regard, I'd like to know.

I rather got the impression that Nerwen was being flippant. In which case, your readiness to seize upon this as suspicious is, in itself, somewhat suspicious.

I considered that, but the lack of a smilie left room for some doubt.

x/d with Nerwen, SPM, and Morsul

[Morsul the Dark]

Actually do the math....(I should have realized this earlier...)

17 people

Only 7 ordos

2 lovers
1 Ranger
1 Seer
1 Hunter
(5 good)

1 cobbler
1 Bear...
that leaves
3 Wolves Not Four!

The sentence is written incorrectly It SOUNDS like four wolves it means 3 wolves and a bear(the four) then the cobbler....

There is no good wolf....

Crossed with nerwen

[Nerwen]

Have I missed something? Since when is there a 'friendy' wolf?

Originally Posted by Mirandir

"Upon entering this house," he continued, "All but seven of you were infused with a spirit. Five of you have been infected by evil. You will attempt to kill your fellows when the Night falls, but only four work together. One of the others wants you to win and will help you trick the others during the Day.


'Five infected by evil', but only four working together. I read that as four wolves, and a bear. And then one working for the evil side during the Day, the cobbler. If I'm misinformed in this regard, I'd like to know.

Ah, you think the "you" in that sentence refers to the wolves? I think you may be right. Drat.

EDIT:X'd with Morsul.

[Nerwen]

The sentence is written incorrectly It SOUNDS like four wolves it means 3 wolves and a bear(the four) then the cobbler....

There is no good wolf....

Crossed with nerwen

Ah... I guess everyone assumed– I know I did– that it was only the card-carrying villains– the shapeshifter roles– who had been "infected by evil".

Well, then, there may not be a good wolf after all, but then there's only three wolves!

[The Saucepan Man]

Erk, my bad. I assumed that "you" in the passage quoted by Nerwen referred to the Innocents and that there was therefore one Wolf working for the Village. However, reading it again, I fear that I was wrong and that Inzil is correct. :(

3 Wolves Not Four!

Alas, no ...

So we have four wolves, a werebear, a Hunter, a Ranger, a Seer, a cobbler, two Lovers, and seven ordosI think the maths is wrong. But only to the extent that there are 6 ordos as, according to the narrative, there are definately four Wolves. And a Werebear. And a Cobbler ...

Great. :(

Still, on the bright side, it improves our odds of lynching a baddie. :D

[Roa_Aoife]

First things first: being a native of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area, and my home team being the Ravens, I demand that my death involve ravens if/when I die. (Little known fact, the Ravens are so named in honor of Edgar Allen Poe, who is still well loved in the area. There's even a restaraunt named Annabel Lee's.)

(three out of four Wolves, on the basis that one of them is on our side, ...).

Sorry, where did you get that from? Did I misunderstand the rules? Where does it say we have a Friendly wolf?

My impressions thus far:

It's nice to see that people aren't being shy with their accusations. At least we'll have plenty to discuss.

SPM, are you suggesting "The enemy of my enemy is my friend?" Keep in mind that the wolves and the bear could ultimately try to work together and turn on the village as a whole. I odn't know if we can count on that dynamic playing out.

Nerwen has been throwing suspicion left and right, and seems very ready to jump on SPM's comment towards Inzil.

We seem to have a lot of confusion regarding the number of wolves. I thought there were only three this game, plus one bear and one cobbler to equal all the baddies. Are there really 4 wolves? If so, is one of them a lover? I thought the lovers were both innocent. A modgod intervention would be appreciated.

SPM's idea about this friendly wolf, if flawed, looks a great deal like someone trying to spread confusion, and perhaps open a doorway for "Don't lynch me, I'm the friendly wolf!"

So right now, my two main suspects are Nerwen and SPM.

Edit: crossed with Nerwen and SPM

[Inziladun]

All right. let's look at the full text about who is 'infused with a spirit' here.

"Upon entering this house," he continued, "All but seven of you were infused with a spirit. Five of you have been infected by evil. You will attempt to kill your fellows when the Night falls, but only four work together. One of the others wants you to win and will help you trick the others during the Day. One of you will be able to protect someone from their fate, but for only two Nights. One is sworn to take down their choice in game if - or rather when - they are killed themselves. Yet one more will be able to have the role of another sent to them in a dream. The final two are paired together, and their survival depends on each other.

There are 17 of us in all. Only seven do not have a spirit of some sort, whether good or evil.

Ordos- 07
Ranger- 01
Hunter- 01
Seer- 01
Lover Pair- 02

That's 12 for the good side.

Which leaves 5 evil ones, wolves, bear and cobbler.

Since the bear and cobbler do not work with the wolves, I don't see how 'four' could be in collusion. Perhaps we could get some enlightenment on this?

x/d with SPM and Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, I can accept that SPM was confused by the posting. (I could have sworn we were only having 3 wolves...)

[Roa_Aoife]

All right. let;s look at the full text about who is 'infused with a spirit' here.



There are 17 of us in all. Only seven do not have a spirit of some sort, whether good or evil.

Ordos- 07
Ranger- 01
Hunter- 01
Seer- 01
Lover Pair- 02

That's 12 for the good side.

Which leaves 5 evil ones, wolves, bear and cobbler.

Since the bear and cobbler do not work with the wolves, I don't see how 'four' could be in collusion. Perhaps we could get some enlightenment on this?

x/d with SPM and Roa

Either the 4 wolves was a typo, or the 7 ordos was a typo. They can't both be true.

[Mirandir]

I think the maths is wrong. But only to the extent that there are 6 ordos as, according to the narrative, there are definately four Wolves. And a Werebear. And a Cobbler ...


Erm so this one time Mira can't count. There are six ordos. Epic fail on my part. And just to clarify, there are four wolves and a bear and a cobbler. No friendly wolf. Sorry for the confusion.

[Roa_Aoife]

We could just have everyone who's an ordo raise their hand and then we'd have a count. :D

*giggles hysterically at the thought*

edit: crossed with the modgod. Ok, that's all cleared up.

[Inziladun]

Erm so this one time Mira can't count. There are six ordos. Epic fail on my part. And just to clarify, there are four wolves and a bear and a cobbler. No friendly wolf. Sorry for the confusion.

Well, three wolves would have been better, but thanks for the clarification.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I am glad that's cleared up, although I'm not exactly enthused by the outcome. Indeed, perhaps we should have kept the idea of a 'friendly Wolf' going for longer, as it would most certainly have confused the Wolves. :D

Not at all happy, though, with how quickly Roa was to jump on my misunderstanding. Quite apart from anything else, posing as a 'friendly Wolf', would be a pretty suicidal tactic for a Wolf ... :rolleyes:

[Pitchwife]

Hi everybody, just caught up, got very confused by all the mathematics and then deconfused again by Mirandir's clarification. Thank Moddess that's settled.
So, the Bear. Last game I played with a Bear in it started with a heated discussion about the question whether it would be feasible for the village to strike an alliance with the Bear against the wolves, which led to some ill-guided lynchings, if I remember well. I think we'd do well to remember the ancient adage Ursus communis hostis omnium - the Bear is everyone's enemy.
Of course it would be best if we could catch the Bear and reduce the Night kills rather soonish, but I think it won't get us anywhere to concentrate too much on the Bear per se, as our chances of getting them are no better (or even worse) than those of getting any other baddie. Following Nerwen 's advice in #19 , let's lynch everybody who behaves evil, and hopefully we'll get the bear as well as the wolves.

[Brinniel]

Just checking in. I'm at work now, so I really don't have time to say much (plus these school computers like to automatically log me out every 15 minutes). I have classes all day most of the week so for most Days I won't be around again until the last few hours. So in case anyone wonders where I am during a good span of the Day...that's why.

Anyway, it looks like mostly what's been going on is a lot of confusion, which has now been clarified. For the most part, it all the confusion looks perhaps to be genuine, though I won't eliminate the possibility of a bluffing baddie. Faking ignorance is a good strategy to make someone look innocent. I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side. It's perhaps something I should take a better look at later toDay along with other discussions that may arise.

With the wolves and werebear, there's really no easy way to identify one from the other except that possible connections can be found between wolves. And usually those connections can't be identified until one is dead (unless the seer reveals a living wolf). The werebear is most difficult to catch because he works alone and the only way we can trace him other than by suspicious behaviour is through his Nightly kills. It would certainly be nice to eliminate the werebear quickly so to prevent too many double Night kills, but we also want to be quick to narrow down the number of wolves since there are four of them. Really we shouldn't try to lynch one or the another; we should just lynch those who act suspiciously as we normally do and hopefully they'll turn out to be one of the two. Of course, what would be really nice is if the wolves and werebear were to take care of each other at Night for us.

EDIT: X-ed with last two posts, which makes a really long time to write a post of this size. I keep getting interrupted...stupid work.

[Nerwen]

For the most part, it all the confusion looks perhaps to be genuine, though I won't eliminate the possibility of a bluffing baddie. Faking ignorance is a good strategy to make someone look innocent. I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side.

Genuine confusion on the part of the cobbler or bear is also possible, I suppose.

Really we shouldn't try to lynch one or the another; we should just lynch those who act suspiciously as we normally do and hopefully they'll turn out to be one of the two.

Yes... I made that already.:p

Of course, what would be really nice is if the wolves and werebear were to take care of each other at Night for us.

Indeed, but talking about it certainly won't make it happen. (See last game with a Bear!)

[The Saucepan Man]

I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side.

Quite frankly, I am astonished that anyone could think the ‘friendly Wolf’ idea to have been a ruse by a baddie to sow confusion. Now that I understand the correct meaning of the passage concerned, I am at a loss to see how anyone who immediately understood its correct meaning would even have spotted the opportunity to misconstrue the narrative, let alone have had any confidence that such misconstruction would provide the opportunity for sustained confusion (which would have required a good portion of the Village to accept, or go along with, the misconstruction as the true position).

One thing which might well have been a ruse, however, was Roa’s apparent initial belief that there were only three Wolves. It could well have been intended to suggest, even if only subliminally, that she cannot possibly be a Wolf because otherwise she would have known that there were four Wolves. It’s not much on its own but, combined with her quickness to jump on my misunderstanding and her expressed suspicion of Nerwen, seemingly based only on Nerwen’s early accusations (which were clearly flippant, in my view), it makes me rather uneasy about her, moreso than anyone else at present.

[Roa_Aoife]

Quite frankly, I am astonished that anyone could think the ‘friendly Wolf’ idea to have been a ruse by a baddie to sow confusion. Now that I understand the correct meaning of the passage concerned, I am at a loss to see how anyone who immediately understood its correct meaning would even have spotted the opportunity to misconstrue the narrative, let alone have had any confidence that such misconstruction would provide the opportunity for sustained confusion (which would have required a good portion of the Village to accept, or go along with, the misconstruction as the true position).

Hey, it's day 1 and we need to vote for someone. Misconstruing the facts is a very good tactic for a wolf. My very next post was to state that I believed you were confused. You're being very jumpy about this.

One thing which might well have been a ruse, however, was Roa’s apparent initial belief that there were only three Wolves. It could well have been intended to suggest, even if only subliminally, that she cannot possibly be a Wolf because otherwise she would have known that there were four Wolves.

Actually, it was me only skimming through the rules initially. :o Oops on my part. But Morsul also thought there were only three wolves, and you thought that there were only three wolves working against us. Making a mistake is not the same as a ruse, and a lot of people were confused by the rules.

It’s not much on its own but, combined with her quickness to jump on my misunderstanding and her expressed suspicion of Nerwen, seemingly based only on Nerwen’s early accusations (which were clearly flippant, in my view), it makes me rather uneasy about her, moreso than anyone else at present.

Again, it's day 1. My suspicion of Nerwen is based on the way she jumped on your statements to Inzil. It's not much, but it's basically the only thing that looks really suspicious right now, except for your clearly wrong friendly wolf theory, and I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt on that one, because it would be pretty silly of you.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hey, it's day 1 and we need to vote for someone.Indeed. :p

Still, I am some way off the point where I need to vote, and there are a fair few who have not yet spoken, so I am reserving judgment for now.

[wilwarin538]

I am here, sorry I'm so late, had a test and a bunch going on this morning, but I will be around randomly for about the next 3ish hours, then again later tonight to vote.

reading....

[Pitchwife]

What's going on between Roa and SpM at the moment looks like a classical suspicion match between two active innocents to me. Nice TV for the wolves.
My suspicion of Nerwen is based on the way she jumped on your statements to Inzil.
For clarification, you're referring to this here, right?:

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man
I rather got the impression that Nerwen was being flippant. In which case, your readiness to seize upon this as suspicious is, in itself, somewhat suspicious.
Also, perhaps the fact that at the same time Inzil seems to be sort of leaving himself the option of suspecting Greenie too:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun
Could be either, but I can't necessarily read anything into that post of hers. You seem a bit quick to label her 'guilty'.
However, he may have thought I was being more serious than I was. I should have thought my "Another guilty post" comment was pretty obviously over-the-top, though.
As in, a wolf latching on to and feeding an innocent's suspicion of another innocent, you mean? (Not that we know either Zil or SpM are innocent, of course!) I see your point, but wouldn't make that much of it, as she leaves open the possibility that Zil made more of her statement than she meant. Still, this looks like the most serious suspicion she's voiced up to now, the rest having been more playful, so it bears thinking about.

EDIT: typo fixed.

[Roa_Aoife]

Yes, Pitch, that is exactly what I am referring to. And as I said, it isn't much, it's just the best I have at the moment.

[Pitchwife]

I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side.
While the Friendly Wolf idea (henceforth abbreviated FWI) would indeed make a great cover for a wolf or cobbler, the idea itself isn't per se suspicious - there have been precedents (witness Zil in Eönwë's Night Guard game). Anyway, it wouldn't have taken much brains to reckon with the possibility that such a cover would rather sooner than later be blown by a Moddess clarification, so that would have made a rather short-lived strategy.

EDIT: bolding (I'm a pedant, I know)

[Pitchwife]

Continuing from my last - what Brinn says here could just as well be a furry attempt to use the FWI discussion for sowing suspicion among the innocents involved in it. But that's pretty tenuous too, and the rest of her post sounds sensible.

[wilwarin538]

To be in theme: we should all just go to everyone's rooms and be really quite, and if we here a heart beat under someone's floor boards then we gots a baddie.....:D *loves Poe*

anyway.....


We'll just lynch anyone who looks evil, as usual. Including the cobbler. In fact, after last game, make that especially the cobbler.

mwahahahahaha :p (I actually agree with this statement, it just made me giggle a bit)



4 wolves?! Wow.....well, our chances of getting one is fairly high, cause there are so many, and then we just have to hope that the Bear kills a wolf and the wolves kill the Bear and we'll be off to a great start.....aslong as the gifteds don't all start revealing again. :rolleyes:

I don't understand this "Friendly Wolf" talk, I get where it came from but the Moddess cleared up it's non-existence so I don't really understand why it's being talked about. Any baddie would have known the mod would eventually clear it up, so I doubt they would have tried to use the confusion to their advantage.

I will agree that Bears are tough, they can quite easily hide behind the fact that they could care less whether the wolves die or not, but anyone trying overly hard to go under the radar will look more suspicious to me then usual. The Lovers worry me aswell, with the large number of wolves they may think it more beneficial for their survival to act cobbler-like and help the baddies along, but I don't have much experience actually playing with that role being around, so I really don't know what type of strategies they use.

Hmm.....no one is jumping out at me yet. I need to do a bit of homework and then I'll come back and re-read everything again, and maybe make a little list or something....

[Nogrod]

If Roa is reserving the raven then I must have the pendulum! That's the nightmare from my childhood as I went and read the story a bit too young... :eek:

On other news: it's always disappointing to come in a bit late on the Day and see that all the interesting things you had discovered during your read-in are discussed in the few posts just before yours... :confused:

Well, it just tells one that certain things do raise the eyebrows...

But I still think I have something to add on a few things that have been mentioned recently. Just a moment.


And btw. this has been a very good Day1 indeed. Unlike sometimes, people have been quite forthcoming - the non-posters excluded - and there seem to be a lot to think... and rethink.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Once, as I was soundly sleeping,
dreaming dreams of women weeping,
having thoughts of things I'd never thought to think before,
I heard a rapping, barely tapping, tapping on my chamber door.

T'was my mother meant to wake me
and then after show'ring take me
to the county seat where business waited
full of paperwork galore.

And now finally I am here
with a cup of coffee near
and I'm catching up my reading, laying on my bedroom floor.

And I must say, somewhat regretting
that I've noticed that already
Morsul's logic is as faulty as it's been in games before.
I'll show you this, then rhyme some more:

Saucepan Man- Hmm... Names from a hat odds are against rewolfing But not impossible

As I read, I type quite fast
processing the words I've passed.
And these ones said by Morsul cause my jaw to hit the floor:
You are wrong, and that's for sure.

If the moddess chose the role
from the same hat the past mod stole
the choices from in games the players all had played in times before,
then the odds would be, as you said-

My rhyming's dead;
I'll write this part in prose, I suppose.

Saucie's odds of being a wolf in the last game have zilch to do with his odds of being a wolf in this game. Based on the numbers of this game, his odds are 3/17. I think. Or 4/17. So somewhere hovering around a 1 in 5 chance. Just like everybody else. Random means random.

Speaking of: how many wolves are there? Somebody mentioned a fourth 'good' wolf that wants the innocents to win. But I couldn't find that anywhere in the admin information.

Up my hands fly, all confusion,
like my brain holds a contusion
since a Friendly Wolf is news
I hadn't seen or heard before.
Where was this wolf real wolves deplore?

Have I missed something? Since when is there a 'friendy' wolf?

Thank you, Zil, for echoing the thoughts I've said before.

Well, then, there may not be a good wolf after all, but then there's only three wolves!

It makes sense much more
But my brow is raised, and I must assure
you that your misread of narration
caused some mental devastation
as I thought you'd all read something not revealed to me before.

Erm so this one time Mira can't count. There are six ordos. Epic fail on my part. And just to clarify, there are four wolves and a bear and a cobbler. No friendly wolf. Sorry for the confusion.

Mira Moddess, darling goddess, in the future, fear my wrath
if when you hit submit reply, you forget to check your math.

Now as for rhyming? It is toast
for on conclusion of my post,
since poetry makes me insecure,
I shall quoth the raven, nevermore.

[Pitchwife]

...aslong as the gifteds don't all start revealing again.
Unlikely. As long as the Bear's around, any reveal would be pretty suicidal, in other words highly unadvisable unless they feel it's really really really worth the risk.
I will agree that Bears are tough, they can quite easily hide behind the fact that they could care less whether the wolves die or not, but anyone trying overly hard to go under the radar will look more suspicious to me then usual.
Indeed, I'm beginning to see the merit of the System of Doctor Nog and Professor Rod... Which reminds me we've heard nothing at all yet from Fea, Hakon, Lottie, McCaber and the eponymous Doctor/Professor himself, and nothing but early banter from Boro, Lari and sally. An appalling proportion of submarines at the moment... but then, the Day isn't done yet.
As for the Lovers - what she said (btw, is that phrase copyrighted or public domain? It seems to be a special trademark of sally's). But they can't kill anybody and are in just as much danger of being killed as anybody else, so I'd treat them as harmless innocents.

(Ah - x'ed with Nog.)

EDIT: (And Fea. Nice to see you both.)

[Nienna]

*hands Fea a cookie*

[Roa_Aoife]

As for the Lovers - what she said (btw, is that phrase copyrighted or public domain? It seems to be a special trademark of sally's). But they can't kill anybody and are in just as much danger of being killed as anybody else, so I'd treat them as harmless innocents.

(Ah - x'ed with Nog.)

EDIT: (And Fea. Nice to see you both.)

Actually, when one lover is killed, the other gets to kill someone else. That can work to our benefit however, as they can them aim for a wolf. It's not a guarantee they'll hit one, but it's something to consider.

(Yes, I went back and read the rules thoroughly so that I don't make another mistake.)

Also, Fea, you rock.

People fall into the Monte Carlo fallacy (also known as the "he's been a wolf for the past four games, he can't possibly be a wolf this time" fallacy) quite often, so I'd be disinclined to hold that against Morsul. It's only his second game.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

*Accepts cookie with grace.*
*Stuffs cookie into face.*

[Pitchwife]

People fall into the Monte Carlo fallacy (also known as the "he's been a wolf for the past four games, he can't possibly be a wolf this time" fallacy) quite often, so I'd be disinclined to hold that against Morsul.
Me too.

While we're picking our favourite deaths, I'd like to go over the edge of the world in the mysterious white mists of the Antarctic, please. Tekeli-li!

[Mirandir]

*is officially taking death requests*

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Just think of me as Ligeia, darling.

[Mirandir]

Also, upon request, the werebear shall henceforth be known as "the Murderer of the Rue Morgue." :D

[Nogrod]

Sorry it took time, but I had two long calls to speak...

Okay. I have thought that so far Spm, Greenie and Roa have given me some food for thought as to why they do what they do.



Spm

In his first post he playfully argues why all the three first posters are wolves and then adds that Nerwen's "audacious accusation" towards Sally (saying she is too self-conscious in remarking about the first posters) is very suspicious.

In his next post he addresses the Bear; "how good you are, no pressure..." (and a smilie). Followed by a kind of humorous self-revealment for Nerwen's remark ("Lightning never strike in the same place twice, except in horror stories, of course... er ..." (and a smilie).

In his third post he introduces the "Friendly-wolf" -interpretation and talks about "ungraciousness" if we killed him.

In his fourth he turns now to Inzil who had questioned him of getting after Nerwen too readily and says Inzil looks suspicious for making that interpretation (like reduplicating his own suspicion on Nerwen).

In his fifth he says the friendly wolf would not turn against us if he was left the last one.

In his sixth he agrees with Nerwen on not willing to kill the friendly wolf before he has gotten a chance of "leaving trails or helped in other ways".

In his seventh he backed down from the "friendly wolf" interpretation (as it started turning more and more obvious it was not the case - I mean how did you read that from there to begin with???).

In his eighth he is sad because the friendly-wolf -stuff would have confused the wolves. Starts suspecting Roa for jumping on his Friendly-wolf -hypotheses and says it would be bad for a wolf to try that (which might be true, but it would be very good for a cobbler... and even better for one to say just this).

In his ninth he defended himself (very reasonably indeed) and went on the suspicion raised by Brinn against Roa, adding to it his own suspicions (Roa suspecting him & Nerwen from early posts).

So what should I say, other than he looks like a cobbler to me?

All this creating of confusion, all that could be seen as "contact-making" (more of that with Greenie), all the suspicion thrown around like at random (well that could be argued for as a tactics of an innocent as well) and to top it; his defence of himself of saying it would be bad for a wolf to do what he did... heh, so not a wolf, but... a cobbler?


Blah... this is taking ages... :(

I need to have a cigarette and be a bit less thorough with Greenie & Roa...

[Inziladun]

Not at all happy, though, with how quickly Roa was to jump on my misunderstanding. Quite apart from anything else, posing as a 'friendly Wolf', would be a pretty suicidal tactic for a Wolf ... :rolleyes:

Well, Roa herself admitted (without being pressed by anyone) you could have simply been confused, as others were.

Alright, I can accept that SPM was confused by the posting. (I could have sworn we were only having 3 wolves...)

That could have been a baddie throwing out random suspicion, but it seems odd to me she would have backed off of it so quickly on her own if that was the case.

One thing which might well have been a ruse, however, was Roa’s apparent initial belief that there were only three Wolves. It could well have been intended to suggest, even if only subliminally, that she cannot possibly be a Wolf because otherwise she would have known that there were four Wolves. It’s not much on its own but, combined with her quickness to jump on my misunderstanding and her expressed suspicion of Nerwen, seemingly based only on Nerwen’s early accusations (which were clearly flippant, in my view), it makes me rather uneasy about her, moreso than anyone else at present.

I think that's something of a reach. At this point, I have no certainty at all of Roa's innocence, but I don't really receive any evil vibes from her yet.

x/d with Nogrod

[McCaber]

Also, upon request, the werebear shall henceforth be known as "the Murderer of the Rue Morgue." :D
So, a were-rangutan, then? Interesting...

I just have to say, this day is terrible for me timing-wise. (What is it with me and Day1s? We just don't get along.)

So far Nogrod seems to be making a lot of sense, as always. Fea did a good job talking over the probabilities involved, and I won't even talk about about the FWI.

[Nogrod]

Greenie

She seems to be the "Bear-addicted" one. And interestingly she goes talking about whether we should "concentrate on the Bear or not" (obviously saying we should neither concentrate nor forget her/him).

But what is this "concentrating on the Bear" -stuff anyway? How does one concentrate one's search for baddies to a Bear that has no mates and to whom every lynch but her/his own is just okay? The Bear's role is the most unfathomable there is: no loyalties, no cares, no bonds... So no possibility of catching the Bear by what s/he says in regards to other players, no voting "footprint", nothing. So how to concentrate on finding her/him?

I must say I must suspect also those others who used this way of speaking being just fine talking about "concentrating the search on the Bear or not"... I mean really.


If you say that, you're not trying to find anyone in earnest! Only a person faking to "try and find someone" can say s/he tries to focus on the Bear / not to focus on the Bear. Anyone who really is trying to find a baddie knows the Bear is not to be found by just concentrating!


But I probably wouldn't have set my eyes on all this initially were there not Greenie's post...
Another guilty post. The only question here is whether Greenie is the Bear, doing some preliminary gloating, or one of the other baddies trying to fix our attention on the Bear instead of the wolves.
Drat. Got caught already.... and my suspicions on Spm being the cobbler. It was just an hour before Spm had made his own version of this "heh, you got me" -stuff and now Greenie was responding? It does look like a cobbler / wolf / bear -probing to me.

Now if I would have to make a quess now on who's the Bear, I would say Greenie is. The way she talks about the Bear all the time ("no Bear would talk of her own role that much") would be just fine for a Bear. Also the idea that getting the Bear is a question of focusing is not one an innocent villager could have as an innocent would see there is no way to "search for" the Bear. And the tone she does it... well, I'm not sure I can formulate an argument on that. I just get suspicious of it.

And let it be known I tend to be suspicious of Greenie everytime we play together... So a pinch of salt here.


And drat. I promised myself to be shorter with the rest... :confused:

[Pitchwife]

At this point, I have no certainty at all of Roa's innocence, but I don't really receive any evil vibes from her yet.
Me neither. As for Nerwen, I see Roa's point against her, as I said above, but that single post would be a terribly thin foundation to base a vote on.
Nog's case for SpM=cobbler sounds attractive; I'd be loth to have to lynch him on Day 1 again, though*sigh*.
But what is this?
Now if I would have to make a quess now on who's the Bear, I would say Greenie is. The way she talks about the Bear all the time (no Bear would talk of her own role that much) would be just fine for a Bear.
Is it just me, or do the brackets contradict the rest of the second sentence? If she talks about the Bear all the time, and no Bear would talk of her own role that much, it would follow she can't be the Bear, wouldn't it? Or was the part in brackets supposed to be some unmarked quote, or what?
And let it be known I tend to be suspicious of Greenie everytime we play together...
Hadn't noticed that yet.;)

[Pitchwife]

Sorry, I missed the quotation marks, which somehow disappeared from the part of Nog's post when I copied and pasted it. No idea how that happened. Forget what I just said about the contradiction.

[Nogrod]

Roa

It's funny how this "language stuff" go... or then there's dishonesty...

To me as a "broken English" speaker (eg. as a non-native speaker) it looked quite clear there were four wolves and a bear: "five infected by evil trying to kill their fellows at Night, and of which only four worked together", and the cobbler was "one of the others" (eg. not one infected by evil).

Now people can read their mother-tongue wrong if the wording is unclear or if they read fast and without attention. But this still irks me: how many went with this "misreading" - and see how many evil-wishing people we have around us (basically one of three!). I don't think that is a coincidence... whatever their purpose might have been (basically any general misconception is a possible advantage for the baddies).

So Roa got it wrong first... She asked where Spm got the idea of a "friendly wolf", quoting Spm's post where he said that "three out of four wolves, on the basis that one of them is on our side".

After Mira cleared the situation comes her next post, which Inzil actually uses to defend Roa, and which says: Alright, I can accept that SPM was confused by the posting. (I could have sworn we were only having 3 wolves...)But why to add those brackets and swearing that we only had three wolves? Isn't that a bit overdoing it?

I mean she didn't say she swore she thought we had only three wolves... she said she swore we had only three wolves... okay, that might be one of these language issues once again (or just nit-picking - but the general question remains, why to make that addition as if not to look good?

Also her later defence of saying that Morsul also thought there were three wolves and many others had been confused by the rules looks a bit too defencive for an innocent Roa. A kind of unnecessary thing for her to do.


Heh, interesting to have this much to go for on Day1! Yay people! It's a bit extraordinary indeed, but good. Makes this more interesting from the beginning - and gives a lot of food for thought for the Days to come.

[Nogrod]

Sorry, I missed the quotation marks, which somehow disappeared from the part of Nog's post when I copied and pasted it. No idea how that happened.That happened just because I realised myself that the brackets were missing and thus the sentence sent out the wrong meaning so I edited it adding the brackets... and seemingly did that after you had refreshed the page to quote that - but early enough it didn't mark the post as edited...

[Pitchwife]

I mean she didn't say she swore she thought we had only three wolves... she said she swore we had only three wolves... okay, that might be one of these language issues once again
I'd say it probably is. We say that in German too: I could have sworn it = I was so sure of it.

[A Little Green]

Indeed, I'm beginning to see the merit of the System of Doctor Nog and Professor Rod...Excuse me, but who's Rod? *is confused* :confused:
But what is this "concentrating on the Bear" -stuff anyway? How does one concentrate one's search for baddies to a Bear that has no mates and to whom every lynch but her/his own is just okay? The Bear's role is the most unfathomable there is: no loyalties, no cares, no bonds... So no possibility of catching the Bear by what s/he says in regards to other players, no voting "footprint", nothing. So how to concentrate on finding her/him?Eurgh. Well. The reason I first brought up the Bear was to wonder if it's even possible to catch one. The second time I brought up the issue was (like I think I've already said) to point out that the Bear may, in the upcoming Days when we (hopefully) will have some wolvish connection trails to follow, be forgotten (at least by leaky-minded people like me) and that is not advisable. The third time I brought up the Bear was to explain the previous to Morsul. So, quite frankly, I don't get your "obsessed with the Bear" -stuff. Half my posting concerning the Bear is explaining an earlier mention of the Bear. Hardly qualifies as an obsession, in my book.

Oh, and I kind of hate myself for this, but I find Nog a bit unnerving at the moment. For one thing, he's grasping at straws, in the sense that he's making big things out of small things. (No news on Day 1, I suppose.) But I get rather more concerned when thinking of who he's suspicious of. Let's see... there's SPM, me, and Roa - all of whom have been voiced some uneasiness of earlier (ie. ideal Day 1 lynch candidates). I'm surprised Nerwen didn't make it to the list. :rolleyes: It of course might be that SPM, Roa and myself have been behaving more suspiciously than others, but I can't shrug off the thought that Nog might be just advocating for an easy yet reasonable-looking lynch.

And let it be known I tend to be suspicious of Greenie everytime we play together... So a pinch of salt here.Alas, so true. I wonder if I shouldn't take my own suspicions seriously because I always suspect you. A pinch of salt, indeed.

EDIT: x-ed with 2xNog and Pitchwife, corrected bolding
EDITEDIT: wrote the "EDIT" part in the wrong place. How embarrassing.

[A Little Green]

I want to go to sleep very soon so I'll vote in a little while... Eurgh I wouldn't want to fall into old habits and vote Nog but it's the best I have at the moment... Hopefully there's some tremendous new info by the time I get back (ie. in a very short while). Come on, now, some wolf confessions, please. :Merisu:

[Nogrod]

I need to attend the Scarburg Mead Hall for a while but will be back before going to sleep and to vote. But just as a thought as I see I have used all my time reading the three I was first suspicious of when I read the thread the first time about 6 hours ago...

I agree with those who say this nasty situation (basically 1/3 wishes us no good) has a seed of positiviness in it, which is that even if we vote blindly on Day1 we have a nice chance of hitting it right - unlike in normal games where blind-shooting is always a great risk. Well it's a risk in every game, but so is going with hunches or just wrongly built "cases".

The number of real baddies, 5 out of 17, is clearly one more (even two) than the normal and adding the cobbler into the mix makes the intention-ratio quite evil - but also one where a trial to catch a submarine on Day1 could be argued for with even greater weight than normally (I'm not wishing to go into that discussion that has been done dozens of times).

The more Days go by the more stressing it will be to catch a baddie and the more everyone of us thinks it should be wiser to vote for someone with even a poor case than just randomly try out a non-poster. This Day.

My dad called... just a minute...

[Pitchwife]

Excuse me, but who's Rod? *is confused*
If you don't know, how am I supposed to? Maybe the side of him that doesn't want to lynch his daughter - sort of a Jekyll and Hyde affair? No, wait, that was Stevenson, not Poe...:o

Seriously, time to look at some of the others. Zil is being suspiciously unsuspicious this time, as far as I can tell - as in, posting sparingly, with occasional outbursts of making points (e.g. attacking the FWI, which speaks for him) - all in all looks like himself.
Morsul - was around for a while earlier in the Day, voiced some reserved suspicion of Nerwen, Greenie and sally because of early morning accusations and 'hiding in plain sight', committed Monte Carlo fallacy about SpM's chance of wolvishness. Sometimes hard to get what he's actually saying, but nothing that screams out to me yet.

[A Little Green]

If you don't know, how am I supposed to?*headdesk* I'm tired. Didn't get the joke. :o

I'm off to bed, a glorious two hours later than I meant to. So, here comes my vote:

++ Nog Rod

Good Night folks.

[Nogrod]

Okay... one dad dealt with... :) (no I actually like to talk with him but it tends to take a long time everytime...)

For one thing, he's grasping at straws, in the sense that he's making big things out of small things. (No news on Day 1, I suppose.)I'm making all I have time for. As I said you three were the ones that raised my eyebrows when I had a chance to read the thread 7 hours ago... I'm slow, I admit. I have no cababilities to make similar cases on everyone around in the time I have.

But I get rather more concerned when thinking of who he's suspicious of. Let's see... there's SPM, me, and Roa - all of whom have been voiced some uneasiness of earlier (ie. ideal Day 1 lynch candidates).If you look at my first post you see that I regret the fact that the things that got me suspecting some people were the ones that were discussed just the hour before I posted... But as I said then and say now... I wonder if it is just pure coincidence... or whether something in the posting of those people is actually suspicious.

And aren't you exaggerating the suspicions on you Greenie? I mean Spm and Roa had been suspected - mainly by each other...

And like I said in my last post that got interrupted, I'm all for a submarine-lynch toDay. Unless one of you manages to make oneself looking more suspicious...


EDIT: X'd with Greenie... and looking at the last sentence of my original post...

[Boromir88]

I got finished with everything a little sooner than anticipated *yay*, but mostly that was because I was dead tired and decided not to continue practice any further. I'll be around the rest of the day, but likely will not be able to make it to the late DL on this night.

I've scanned through, there's lots of wolves and werebear dynamics discussion. The fact is (and what Pitch refers to an earlier post about the "disagreement" that got people lynched in the previous game with the werebear) if the werebear wants to win a solid strategy is to target wolves at night. Period. What the werebear actually does is a different matter, but the wolves pose just as much as a threat to the werebear during the Night as the werebear getting lynched.

Someone suggested that the bear would team up with the wolves (I'll go back and find out who in a bit :p), but that only ends in a loss for the bear. It serves no benefit for his win to keep the wolves alive. This is what I think was the disagreement in the last game with the werebear, because there really is no way to control what the bear (or wolves) decide to do. However, I see no harm in discussing Sauce's questions, afterall we talk wolf strategy all the time, why not werebear?

There's also a dual-purpose. It's been proven in previous villages where wolves get 2 kills that's not as much of a benefit as some make it out to be. In the Night Guard game the wolves went for the easy set up-lynch innocent Legate the next day instead of cashing in on their 2-kills. I realize the dynamics of that game were different than this, but in this case one of the kills at night will not be by the wolves. So, one of the wolves risks dying at night, as the werebear also is at risk for dying. Thus the dual-purpose, if the werebear targets wolves at night and therefor is a threat to the wolves, than the wolves will have to definitely consider going after the bear. My stating of this I don't think ruins the dynamics, because it is a very logical thing to assume, if the werebear wants to win he's got to bring down the number of wolves quickly, and if the werebear proves to be a threat the wolves will have to go after him. So, let's set them against eachother, or in the very least make them think we are setting them against eachother.

I'm going to catch up on a thorough read through and post thoughts on everyone. Before I forget

*hands Fea a cinnamon roll* How long did it take to write that poem? Bravo.

Edit: crossed since Pitch's 78

[Pitchwife]

Looking at our more taciturn co-villagers:
Brinn - one post, with some content, which I've commented on above; nothing to add.
wilwa - same applies to her.
Fea - our resident poet; has surfaced and given us some wonderful verse, but a little less form and more substance would be nice, when she's done eating cookies. (Question to those who've played more games with her: Does she always make such a theatrical entrée or only when she's a wolf, like last time I saw her do it in Mnemo's game?)
McCaber - one very short post, agrees with Nog and Fea, excuses himself because toDay is terrible for him.
sally - some early morning banter, next to nothing to go on. Under surface.
Lari - one post, zero content. Classical submarine.
Boro - Ah, I see he's just showed up.
Nothing at all from: Hakon and Lottie.

[Pitchwife]

And Boro not only shows up, but also says something and sounds quite reasonable.
However:
So, let's set them against eachother, or in the very least make them think we are setting them against eachother.
And how exactly would you suggest we do that? You just spent quite a number of words on explaining why they'd naturally have to kill one another anyway, so what consequences, if any, should this situation have for our strategy?

[Hakon]

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

[Roa_Aoife]

Fea - our resident poet; has surfaced and given us some wonderful verse, but a little less form and more substance would be nice, when she's done eating cookies. (Question to those who've played more games with her: Does she always make such a theatrical entrée or only when she's a wolf, like last time I saw her do it in Mnemo's game?)


Everything Fea does is theatrical. Which is both entertaining for us and something for her to hide behind. It doesn't really speak either way towards her guilt or innocence.

Ok, sorry for the sudden popping out- I got an emergency "I can't get my kids from karate" call. I'm going to catch back up. I'll probably have to drift in and out tonight, and vote a couple hour before deadline.

[Pitchwife]

Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.
Just to forestall any further meta-game reasoning, roles were assigned randomly (picked from a hat). Mira said so. And welcome among the happy few posting at the moment.

[Roa_Aoife]

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

And once again, for the very last time:

THE ROLES ARE CHOSEN AT RANDOM. Period. The end. It's over.

Edit: crossed with Pitch

[Hakon]

Just to forestall any further meta-game reasoning, roles were assigned randomly (picked from a hat). Mira said so. And welcome among the happy few posting at the moment.

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

[Inziladun]

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

Sorry, I just don't buy this meta-reasoning, especially when it was explicitly stated that the roles were given randomly, and how that was done. You may have guessed correctly using that method before, but it's a waste of time to count on it as a logical tool for ferreting out baddies, in my opinion.

[Pitchwife]

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.
I know this is just your way of playing, but still... :rolleyes::mad:
Could we please hear some intra-game reasoning? As in, based on what people have said up to now, who has been suspected for what by whom, and so? I mean, just for a change?

[Boromir88]

And how exactly would you suggest we do that? You just spent quite a number of words on explaining why they'd naturally have to kill one another anyway, so what consequences, if any, should this situation have for our strategy?
To get them against eachother (or in the very least make the wolves think the bear is after them or vice versa) would hopefully change what they want to do at night. We won't know what they are attempting until kills actually start happening, but if the bear decides to be a threat to the wolves at night than the wolves will have to consider trying to kill the bear. If the bear thinks the wolves will want to knock him off, than the bear has to think about killing wolves. What good does this do us? They try to kill eachother at night instead of working to kill innocents.

Hakon, just because SpM was a wolf doesn't mean McCaber still didn't randomize it. That just means SpM had his name randomly picked. Considering who Mira will pick for what role is plain out headachingly confusing. Not only is delving into the mind of the modgoddess could cause you to lose your sanity, but I think she has repeatedly stated all roles were pulled from a hat. I don't know what else there is to say about this.

Speaking of the modgoddess and deaths...last time I requested an honourable death and you delivered spectacularly. I trust (and expect) you will do the same for me again.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, to start I see Nogrod has made quite an entrance. I really want to ignore him for at least toDay, so I don't fall into the old "Roa and Nog are trying to kill each other and they're both innocent" fiasco again. I'll start paying attention to him later.

Greenie has voted for Nogrod. From what I can tell it's because he suspected her, even though it's been stated that he always does. It seems off to me, somehow, but then as I said, I'm pointedly ignoring Nogrod so I don't do the same. So I'll leave this alone for now as well, because to reason it out, I'd have to look at him, and if I do that I'll want to argue with him, and then we'll end up trying to lynch each other regardless of our respective roles.

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.

I'm not angry with you Hakon. I'm very frustrated that you can't seem to understand this. You got lucky with SPM. One instance doesn't prove your theory, and if you persist on this line of reasoning then you are inherently unhelpful to the village.

BTW, by saying you don't believe the roles are picked randomly, even though Mira said they were, is to call Mira a liar, and that's just rude.

My suspicion against Nerwen is pretty weak right now. I need to read through and see if anything jumps back out at me. Though I wouldn't mind lynching Hakon if he keeps up the meta-gaming nonsense.

[Roa_Aoife]

Two things jump out at me on my read through. Firstly, SPM reacted to my pretty mild suspicion with a disproportionate amount of force, and then brought really circumstantial evidence (my misunderstanding being a "ruse") and a misrepresentation of the reason I suspected Nerwen against me. Maybe he just looking for someone to suspect, or maybe he's upset that I pointed out a possible ruse.

Secondly, the way Pitch goes along with "let's lynch the quiet ones" idea posed by Nogrod. Don't get me wrong- I agree with the idea. It just seems Pitch jumped on it somewhat enthusiastically, even making a list of the quietest villagers. This is pretty weak though, and everything else Pitch has said sounds like her reasonable self.

So there it is: i suspect Nerwen, SPM and Pitch most of all. My strongest case is SPM.

[Nogrod]

Back from the Mead Hall...

As stupid as it is to join a choir, I think I must. Please Hakon, reconsider your stance and start playing. That attitude does not help us at all. You were the hero of the last game but in this one we start from scratch. Don't either think what you thought the last game applies to this one - or that if you were right in the last one the same arguments will be good this time around.

It may be you were not only lucky last time, or then you were, no one can say, but you must also see that most WW-hosts actually randomise the roles for good (I've hosted / co-hosted, what four games I think, and all the roles have been random) and thus the speculations over those matters are kind of against the spirit of the game. We want to play, not to second guess the moods of the mod.

X'd with Roa...

[Pitchwife]

Though I wouldn't mind lynching Hakon if he keeps up the meta-gaming nonsense.
Same here. To be honest, an idiosyncratic playing style is a lousy reason to lynch somebody, as I've said time and again, but there's only so much of it I can stand, and one cobbler is quite enough to deal with.
Problem is, this would make a perfect bandwagon for the wolves to hide in. So rather not.

(x-ed with Roa. Fair enough, but my sex hasn't changed since last time;). That damned nick...)

[Nogrod]

everything else Pitch has said sounds like her reasonable self.I think I can rest assured you two are not mates in crime this time or then this is reaally deliberate... is this what, the third time... or the fourth? :)

[Roa_Aoife]

:o I'll get it right eventually, Pitch. Sorry.

[Pitchwife]

My fault, really. I should have pretended to be a girl from the start. Then in a couple of years I could have made a nice coming-out thread.;);)

[The Saucepan Man]

Catching up ...

*is officially taking death requests*
Well, it's not Poe, but if I have to go, I would rather like to go like the Kenneth Williams character in Carry on Screaming. Frying Tonight! :D

What's going on between Roa and SpM at the moment looks like a classical suspicion match between two active innocents to me. Nice TV for the wolves.
Quite possibly. My reasons for suspecting Roa basically revolve around her aggressive approach, particularly her early accusations of Nerwen and me based on what I regard as rather flimsy evidence. It might be said that a Wolf would not risk drawing attention to herself by acting so aggressively, especially on Day 1. Problem is that Roa always acts that way, whether Wolf or Innocent. As I said, I'm reserving judgment for now.

All this creating of confusion, all that could be seen as "contact-making" (more of that with Greenie), all the suspicion thrown around like at random (well that could be argued for as a tactics of an innocent as well) and to top it; his defence of himself of saying it would be bad for a wolf to do what he did... heh, so not a wolf, but... a cobbler?
Pur-lease. As both Roa and Pitch have pointed out, if it was a ruse, it was a bad one. Credit me with a bit more nouse, please. :rolleyes:

Now if I would have to make a quess now on who's the Bear, I would say Greenie is. The way she talks about the Bear all the time ("no Bear would talk of her own role that much") would be just fine for a Bear.

I don't get this at all. Everyone has been talking about the Bear to some degree or other. Which is hardly surprising, given that the Bear is a relatively rare feature of WW games. And, given that Greenie was simply saying that we should not concentrate on the Bear but not forget him either, you seem rather to be over-emphasising the import of her words in this regard. I see nothing especially 'Bearish' in what Greenie has said, as distinct from anyone else who has discussed the subject.

Is it me, or is Noggie acting uncharacteristically aggressively? Perhaps he has changed his style since days of yore, but I always thought that he was more measured, at the outset at least. The again, the same point applies as I made above. Would a Wolf act so 'in your face' right from the outset on Day 1?

I'm glad to see that Boro, at least, caught my drift concerning the dynamics between the Bear and the Wolves. I pretty much agree with all that he says. It's not a case of trying to get one or t'other of them on our side or relying on them to side with us, but rather pointing out, so that they are clear, what it is their best interests to do.

[Nogrod]

To be honest, an idiosyncratic playing style is a lousy reason to lynch somebody, as I've said time and again, but there's only so much of it I can stand, and one cobbler is quite enough to deal with. Problem is, this would make a perfect bandwagon for the wolves to hide in. So rather not.And this is the general dilemma of WW...

On the surface I do wholly agree with you two with the fact that the way Hakon plays looks like worthy of a lynch-vote.

On a second thought it looks like Pitchie is right: Going after Hakon for that reason would be just the way the wolves would like to do: easy and non-controversial...

But with a third glance on it, what Pitch says would be just what an intelligent wolf would say to make those suspecting his possible mate to look suspicious... Especially if Hakon's mates had been advicing him to go on with that same style... :rolleyes:

EDIT: X'd with the latest few...

[Boromir88]

So I'm up to reading post #55 and am stopping for a break...

The first few posts were junk posts (mine included). Sally does bring up the theory that the first posters are typically wolves, SpM accuses (less "seriously" than the rest of his post) all the first posters, and Inzil wonders the statistics of the theory.

Interesting...I assign the start of the 1st-poster theory to Mith, because it was my first game and she first mentioned it. It could have been someone else before, but I just personally think of Mith. She was a wolf then, but she's also propsed the same as an innocent. It is reasonable to think the evil ones will be excited and anxious to get the game started, thus are the first to post, but the results are rather mixed. I mean someone could just want to be the first to post and get started regardless of role.

Sauce, jests with all of his top-suspects being the first posters, I don't see anything wrong with that. The only thing that gets me suspicious about Sauce is when he said he was going to "reserve judgement" about suspects for now. This strikes me as not a typical Sauce, who before has criticized me for saying I wanted to try a more "observation" role, instead of being my typical blabber-mouth.

Inzil asks about actual statistics and displays curiousity about, which gets me slightly suspicious, as it looks like he's trying to get people seriously suspecting the 1st posters. And only slightly suspicious because he could be honestly curious about the actual stats and then using that as his way to vote, which makes a more reasonable vote than casting a random one.

I'm most suspicious of sally though, who states she did not want to be the 1st-poster because she wanted to avoid the "crap," yet she still posts nothing else except a youtube link for the modgoddess. That gets me the most suspicious, she actually tried to avoid looking like the suspicious "1st-poster," but still makes a post that says nothing. Then her next post she just says she's leaving.

Now onto the 3 or 4 bad wolf, good wolf curfluffle. Sauce looks innocent, in the way that he tries to clear up the confusion over the number of wolves, and the good-wolf talk. There was obvious confusion caused by Mira's poor math skills in the one instant (no worries, once while trying to make a point during a lesson I wrote 8-5 was 4 :p). Anyway the point is there was obviously confusion and with the way it was written, it looks like an honest misunderstanding not someone faking ignorance over rules.

Why suspect Roa for going after Sauce though? If someone says something that is wrong, whether it was an honest mistake or not, I would hope someone else jumps in and corrects it. Roa's questions were aimed to clear up confusion as well as what Sauce was thinking about his "good wolf" talk, someone want to explain what is suspicious there?

I am suspicious of Morsul's little question about it. If anything that is the one that looks like fake ignorance.
I agree the bear should be a top priority I mean we have to kill three(or is it four?)wolves to eliminate their nightly kill, but only one bear to get rid of his or her kill. Seventeen people... 5 wolf/bears... so 12 Innocents considering we lynch the wrong person. in theory 4 days is our time limit for the village...~post 17
First he says 3, but then asks if it's 4. Then in the bolded part it looks like he already knows the true answer "5 wolf/bears" there's only 1 bear, a slip that you knew already there were 4 wolves?

Then in #32 he does the math and points out:
3 Wolves Not Four!

Which Roa responds in #39 that Mira made a typo or her math is wrong. Mira clears up there are 4 wolves. So, I think out of that entire discussion Morsul looks the most suspcious.

Edit crossed with everything after Roa's #92, which reminds me I forgot to say something about that post. (see upcoming post)

[Boromir88]

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.


Thanks for making it easy on me. :D

The other point is try as we might, we can't control what the wolves and bear will do and we won't be able to figure out what they are doing until they make their kills.

So at least early on you could be right that the bear will seek to work with the wolves and vice versa. Maybe they want the double kills? But just as much as they are our enemies, they are also enemies, and as Pitch says they are already naturally against eachother. Let's hope it's sooner rather than later, and actually with 4 wolves the bear should worry about killing the wolves sooner rather than later.

[Morsul the Dark]

Only popping in for a moment before I go to do my show... might have to vote now Even though I have nearly zero suspicions after reading everything.

Ok For people who think the fact that saucey was a wolf last time has nothing to do with this time because both were random picks... While technically true there is the statistics...

1/16 last time 1/17 this time so therefore chance of wolf Both times becomes 1/272

Obviously Just because of that math we shouldn't leave him alone.... Green seems absorbed by the bear but still not really enough for me to vote...

Ok so the only one who really has a strong case would be SPM... the friendly wolf thing... but we were all confused.... but by the math not the wording...

SPM- you said we should always lyncha known cobbler rather than an unknown so Whether you're a cobbler or Wolf ....

SPM++

[The Saucepan Man]

Firstly, SPM reacted to my pretty mild suspicion with a disproportionate amount of force, and then brought really circumstantial evidence (my misunderstanding being a "ruse") and a misrepresentation of the reason I suspected Nerwen against me. Maybe he just looking for someone to suspect, or maybe he's upset that I pointed out a possible ruse.Oh for goodness sake, I am not having this. I think that it was perfectly reasonale to point out that your jumping on my misunderstanding looked suspicious, as it did to me. And the fact that you subsequently retracted made no difference. The mischief was in sowing the seed of doubt, as evidenced by the fact that Brinniel and others picked up on it, and the fact that we are still discussing the issue now. :rolleyes:

I reall am rather miffed at being suspected on the basis of something that would have involved an improbable amount of foresight (to spot the opportunity) combined with an equal measure of stupidity (for thinking that it might work).

And you call my case against you circumstantial, Roa? That's quite something, given the flimsiness of your case against Nerwen, and now me. I think that it is you who is looking for someone to suspect.

But, as you have said, it is Day 1 and we are all looking for someone to suspect based on what we have, such as it is.

[Morsul the Dark]

Actually I thought there was a "Good wolf" until doing the math (the reason for 3/4? was would the "good" wolf be considered in the wolves count... but after I did the math(which we now know was flawed) I now know the answer...

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually I thought there was a "Good wolf" until doing the math (the reason for 3/4? was would the "good" wolf be considered in the wolves count... but after I did the math(which we now know was flawed) I now know the answer...And yet you vote for me for thinking the same. :rolleyes:

Congratulations. You have just appeared between my crosshairs. :p

[Boromir88]

Actually I thought there was a "Good wolf" until doing the math (the reason for 3/4? was would the "good" wolf be considered in the wolves count... but after I did the math(which we now know was flawed) I now know the answer...

Fair enough, I was also going to say, about you this is my first game with you...and I believe your second? I didn't read the last game, so I have no idea about your style, but wanted to get a response from you first before sharing that. ;)

[Roa_Aoife]

Morsul's vote looks like it came out of left field.


SPM, flimsy is saying that I made up being confused about the number of wolves. That is completely circumstantial. You used that to feed into the idea that my case against Nerwen is weak, which I clearly admitted it was. I have one point, it's that she jumped onto something you said to Inzil, which could also be construed as you sowing a seed of doubt against him, which clearly worked because Nerwen went with it.

You see the flaw in your reasoning? Just because someone else jumps onto what I'm saying doesn't mean that was my intention. The people jumping on are more suspicious, because it's easier for a wolf to nudge on an already present suspicion than to start one of their own. I found Nerwen more suspicious than you until you become over-defensive about the whole thing.

edit: crossed with Morsul down, and I have to go to dinner, but I'll be back.

[Morsul the Dark]

And yet you vote for me for thinking the same.

Congratulations. You have just appeared between my crosshairs.

Actually I'm saying we were confused by the math(due to the seven vs. six ordo error)

But you threw in this "Good Wolf" idea and created more confusion, so yes you are my top suspect. I fell for Your ruse or "confusion" but I think until you said the good wolf thing we all knew what was actually meant You placed that seed of doubt..

[The Saucepan Man]

SPM, flimsy is saying that I made up being confused about the number of wolves.Circumstantial, maybe. But relevant nevertheless and, I think, a reasonable basis for an early Day 1 suspicion when combined with the other points that I raised. You did seem rather keen to claim that you had thought there only to be three Wolves.

You see the flaw in your reasoning? Just because someone else jumps onto what I'm saying doesn't mean that was my intention.Eh? My suspicions, such as they are, are not based on anything that anyone else has said. They are based purely on what you have said. You appear to be trying to misrepresent the nature of my case against you here.

I found Nerwen more suspicious than you until you become over-defensive about the whole thing.Well, given that my misunderstanding about the 'friendly Wolf' appears to have given rise to no small amount of suspicion and now one vote, I hardly think that I am being overly-defensive. I am merely trying to point out the ludicrous nature of the basis for such suspicion. Still, if you were trying to sow the seeds of doubt against me back there, it seems to have paid off. :rolleyes:

[Pitchwife]

It's bedtime for me, and I won't be back for DL, so it's voting time, too. I'd rather vote somebody I suspect for a reason rather than Hakon, or one of the subs I'm allegedly so enthusiastic about lynching. SpM might be a candidate, but I sort of like the defense he's just made and would like to give him some more playing time.
What I don't like is how Boro has just blown up sally's early morning jokes into a bubble of suspicion. That's not much to go on, but nobody has really looked at him yet.
++Boro
Good Night.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.

Allow me, Roa, to set you right:
Couple of deaths per Night
Requires only one Wolf-man.
On that note, the Werangutan
Should fast attempt to kill the Loups
To thin the threat the xe dies too.
If each night the living wolves do kill,
Certainly, if the village doesn't kill the 'Tan, the other bad guys will.

---

1/16 last time 1/17 this time so therefore chance of wolf Both times becomes 1/272

WRONG.

Because there is not only one wolf per game, the odds are FOUR out of seventeen. While the odds of being a wolf both times are statistically lower than the odds of being a wolf once, that's because you're dealing with two instead of one. When you're talking singularly about the odds of Saucie being a wolf in THIS game, it is FOUR out of seventeen, the same as the odds for every single other player.

The odds of him being a Were-something are five in seventeen, and the odds of him having evil intentions in general (ie: including the cobbler in the 'bad' group) is six in seventeen. The odds of him (or any of us) being Murderer of the Rue Morgue are one in seventeen because there's only one Werangutan, and the odds of him being cobbler are one in seventeen because there's only one cobbler.

THE END.

[Roa_Aoife]

The mischief was in sowing the seed of doubt, as evidenced by the fact that Brinniel and others picked up on it, and the fact that we are still discussing the issue now. :rolleyes:


Well, given that my misunderstanding about the 'friendly Wolf' appears to have given rise to no small amount of suspicion and now one vote, I hardly think that I am being overly-defensive. I am merely trying to point out the ludicrous nature of the basis for such suspicion. Still, if you were trying to sow the seeds of doubt against me back there, it seems to have paid off.

You are using the fact that other people suspect you as evidence for me intentionally sowing seeds of doubt. Morsul's vote has nothing to do with me- you're just blaming me for it. You're basically saying that the only reason people suspect you is because of me, and not because you actually did anything suspicious.

And there is nothing reasonable about declaring that I was trying to fool everyone by my confusion when you insist that you could not possibly have been doing just that. The first time I stated it was to clarify the numbers which were in debate at the moment, and the second time was to state why your confusion wasn't terribly suspicious because I was confused as well. You jumped on it and ran with it, well before anyone else had mentioned it, so while your over defensiveness may be justified now, it certainly wasn't then.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am going to have to vote soon.

I agree that Hakon's reasoning is wrong-headed and is unhelpful to the Village. But it is hardly a basis to vote for him, at this stage at least.

Much as Roa's stubborn obtuseness and unwillingness to see the problems with her own reasoning is frustrating, I am not going to vote for her toDay, tempting though it is to do so. The 'clash of Innocents' that Pitch referred to is something that I am definately wary of.

I have a vague feeling of unease about Pitch. He just seems to be sitting on the sidelines appearing reasonable but stirring the pot every now and then. Nothing strong enough to merit a vote for him at this stage, but one to watch I think.

Some suspicion of Nogrod, based on his early aggression, but again not enough to vote for him toDay.

My main concern now is Morsul. Not just because he voted for me, but because he has picked up on this the (frankly ludcrous, as I have pointed out) argument that others, most notably Roa, have made and used it to justify his vote.

Of the others, I have not really formed much of a view so far.

[wilwarin538]

Hey, sorry guys there's a bunch of stuff going on with me right now, that kinda came out of nowhere, so I'm not gonna really be around again toDay. There's a strong chance I may have to drop out of this game, but I hope I don't have to. I'll keep you guys updated. Sorry.

Not gonna bother voting, cause it would be crazy random and I don't want to do that since I haven't really read what's been going on.

[Roa_Aoife]

Allow me, Roa, to set you right:
Couple of deaths per Night
Requires only one Wolf-man.
On that note, the Werangutan
Should fast attempt to kill the Loups
To thin the threat the xe dies too.
If each night the living wolves do kill,
Certainly, if the village doesn't kill the 'Tan, the other bad guys will.



The only thing I'm pointing out is that the fewer wolves there are, the greater a chance they'll be wiped out early by us, which leaves us looking for the were-bear to kill. And the wolves don't have to kill the were-bear to win.

The reason I'm pointing this out is because I think it's dangerous to count on something we can't possibly know about. It really all boils down to the Bear's personality. Granted, I've never actually played in a game with a bear, but it seems like everyone just assuming the bear will help us kill wolves instead of helping the wolves kill us seems like a dangerous mentality to get into.

Edit: crossed with SPM down

[The Saucepan Man]

You are using the fact that other people suspect you as evidence for me intentionally sowing seeds of doubt.Oh good grief. I probably shouldn't be rising to it, as it is no doubt most entertaining for the Wolves. I am not doing this at all, Roa. I am pointing out that, if you did try to sow seeds of doubt, it worked. I shouldn't have to repeat this but perhaps you will listen this time round. My suspicions of you derive solely from what you have done, not from what anyone else has done. Are we clear on that now? :rolleyes:

As you will have seen form my last post, I am not holding you responsible for Morsul's vote. I regard him entirely responsible for that. And I do think that there might be something Wolfish in it.

And there is nothing reasonable about declaring that I was trying to fool everyone by my confusion when you insist that you could not possibly have been doing just that.Er, trying to claim that you thought that there were only three Wolves would be a clever ruse. Trying to pretend that there was a 'friendly Wolf' would be a stupid one. That's why I think yours a possibility while I regard the accusation against me as frankly insulting. :p

[The Saucepan Man]

... it seems like everyone just assuming the bear will help us kill wolves instead of helping the wolves kill us seems like a dangerous mentality to get into. :confused:

I am not sure that anyone is assuming that. I most certainly am not. I agree that we cannot rely on the Bear do do anything vis-a-vis the Wolves. Ditto the Wolves vis-a-vis the Bear. However, I see no harm in pointing out, for the Bear's benefit, that it is in his interests to go after the Wolves. :D

I am not sure that I like the look of Pitch's vote. It rather came out of nowhere. Flimsy reasoning has been much discussed toDay (hardly suprising, given that it is Day 1), but his case against Boro looks to be the flimsiest of the flim to me.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

I don't like some buddying-ups around here and I find some rows somewhat fabricated.

Both these classes include Spm...

Also I think he is not reading people on even terms which always raises an eyebrow... and all that praise over someone saying that the wolves and the Bear are enemies who need to get rid of one another... is that news Saucie? Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught? :)

But I will not vote for him as that is not enough to serve as a basis for a vote on Day1. But not knowing the future one needs to lay open his two cents.


That leaves me torn between two options.

Trying the odds with a submarine (which I would then call you others to vote as well) as the chances are best they ever can be in this game looking at the unhappy ratio we have.

Going against my conscience & will and voting for Greenie who I suspected and who retaliated like she just tried to get out of that with the "retaliatory move".

A short thought and then vote.

[The Saucepan Man]

Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught ...Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie? :p First Greenie and now me. Since when does a passing mention in a single post constitute praising someone "so many times"? :rolleyes:

I need to vote and I am probably going to vote for Morsul for picking up on others' specious reasoning and using it to justify his vote. But first I need to go and work out how to do this highlighting of votes ... :confused:

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Intending to vote either Hakon, for calling Mira a liar via suggesting that her 'random' selection wasn't random, and for pulling meta reasoning in when it was forbidden, and for being abrasive; or for Morsul, for forcing me into a probability lesson when I'd much rather crayola my way through a fun project.

(SYTYCD is on; shan't be back for a couple hours.)

[Boromir88]

Also I think he is not reading people on even terms which always raises an eyebrow... and all that praise over someone saying that the wolves and the Bear are enemies who need to get rid of one another... is that news Saucie? Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught? :)

Sometimes it's necessary to state the obvious.

Also when you get multiple people all discussing one topic that means statistically there's probably some villainy involved, which then gives us info to read through. I'm not saying we continue to rehash this same argument the next day and the next, but it's a good question to consider on Day 1, and seeing as many responded to it there's lots to look at.

The same goes for whether early posters are anxious wolves, or the entire confusion over the # of wolves and the good wolf...multiple people commented, now use it to try and find the most suspicious.

Edit: crossed with Sauce and Fea...ooh I better check to see if that DVRed or my roommate will kill me.

[The Saucepan Man]

++Morsul the Dark

... for reasons previously stated.

Adios amigos. :smokin:

[Nogrod]

Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie?Oops... sorry guys... :rolleyes:

Have you seen me not exaggerating things in ww - or elsewhere?

But to be honest you seem to be underplaying the thing saying it was a "passing mention"... how nicely phrased. :)


But with no good-enough candidate on Day1...

I have an impression of these people because of what they have posted / that they have posted substantially enough to give hints about what they think - or wish us to think.

Boro
Fea
Greenie
Hakon
Morsul
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Roa
Saucepan Man

So I can foresee I - or anyone else - is able to read them as the Days go by. And the more Days pass the easier it becomes (which is not to say it will become easy).

These people I have no idea about... (number of their posts after their names)

Brinn -1 (no idea but reasonable - points on Roa and Spm)
Inzil - 6 (what a failing on my side; this many posts and no idea)
Lari - 1 (no idea indeed)
Loslote 0 (where is she?)
McCaber -1 (was too keen to be nice to me, suspicious)
sally - 2 (I didn't like her two posts: showing a knowledgeable face but no input ehatsoever, trying to look nice, suspicious)
wilwa - 3 (no idea, but tend to think her readable later on)

Some may start posting in a Day or two - or even toDay. A tough call.

(I see what you people say about Morsul and even if I kind of agree with you I can see lynching him as an "easy way" as well)

But still looking at the numbers there should be at least two baddies in the latter department.

[Roa_Aoife]

I may be off and on for the rest of the Day, but I can't guarantee it, so I'm going to vote now.

++SPM

For being overly defensive, claiming that he wasn't suspecting me for other people's action but continuously bringing up the idea that I was sowing seeds of doubt, and now this whole "but we're probably two innocents duking it out" looks like he's trying to backpedal after Pitch pointed out the possibility.

[Loslote]

I'm here. Reading...

[Nogrod]

Which one is the worst?

Self-consciously joking - with only two posts but overdoing it trying to look light = Sally

Buddying up - even with time constraints only saying two people are good (me and Fea) = McCaber

Ignoring the game but posting - posting once saying "I'm here" and "pineapple". = Lari

Not showing at all - an innocent and not interested or shying away big time? = Lottie


I'll go with

++ McCaber

He looks the worst to me.


EDIT: X'd with Roa & Lottie

[Nienna]

Nienna's ghost floats in, materializes, and starts yelling.

NO META GAME.

She then looks over her glasses disapprovingly, vaporizes, and floats away.

[Loslote]

Okay, sorry. The Internet broke down and we only just got it back now. But I should be here until deadline? Hope so...

So far, Morsul looks most suspicious. His logic has left me confused while I try to figure out what he could possibly mean, and then trying to figure out where he got it.

Hakon used meta-game reasoning. Ugh. Annoying. Moving on...

I don't think SPAM is Were. He seems genuine to me, but, of course, I could be wrong.

I haven't gotten read on Roa. I'll look at her soon.

I'll look at everyone else now...those are just the ones I've noticed so far in my admittedly quick read-through.

EDIT: xed with Nienna

[Inziladun]

Hmm. I had been seriously considering going for SPM toDay. I don't have great deal on him; mainly I thought his responses to Roa looked somewhat overblown at times.
I didn't much like Morsul's vote for him, though. That was completely out of left field to me, and it seemed, from what I can tell, to be entirely based on Nog saying SPM was a likely cobbler. Now Roa has followed suit. Her vote, at least, wasn't exactly a surprise. :rolleyes:
McCaber I would certainly like to see more of. I know he can be a very accomplished submarine, and he's had an uncanny ability in the past to totally slip by me. I think he bears watching, but I don't see why I should vote for him just yet.
Pitch's vote for Boro came across as rather forced, and a way to avoid being associated with a band-wagon. Granted, Boro's comment about Sally being the most suspicious was a bit weak, but how was Pitch's justification for Boro any better?
Hakon is not worth a vote just yet, but if he insists on keeping up the meta-gaming, I may have to agree with the others that he ought to be lynched just for causing unnecessary confusion.
And Morsul? Again, his vote for SPM feels foul.

x/d with Loslote
Time to ruminate for a bit.

[Boromir88]

Pitch's vote for Boro came across as rather forced, and a way to avoid being associated with a band-wagon. Granted, Boro's comment about Sally being the most suspicious was a bit weak, but how was Pitch's justification for Boro any better?

I meant out of all those who discussed the "early posters" that sally was the most suspicious of the bunch. Based on her stating she wanted to avoid the early posters are suspicious crap, but still being an early poster and saying nothing. I'm not making much of Pitch's vote, I will ask though, when does someone joking automatically mean we should ignore it and not find it suspicious? Are you not familiar with the evil jesters? :p

And if anyone is the most suspicious to me it is Morsul...although I'm wary about the people popping out to say the same. His vote seemed sudden and non-chalant, but how would a wolf-Morsul benefit by voting for an innocent-SpM? I mean if he was throwing a vote out of the blue...unless he was trying to cash-in on the Roa and Sauce battle.

I also have an unexplainable suspicious feeling towards Nogrod. I've only scanned the posts past #55, but his suspicions against Greenie make me wary. I've read Greenie horribly wrong before, but by Nogrod pointing out he's usually suspicious of Greenie, so maybe we should take it as a "pinch of salt" looks safe. Like he has picked someone he usually suspects and tells us we shouldn't think to0 much about it. I haven't read through his posts on Sauce and Roa yet.

[Loslote]

in theory 4 days is our time limit for the village...

Am I missing something? I didn't know there was a time limit.

[Hakon]

He arrived at four days because there are two kills a night and one lynch a day. 17 of us total and two die a night and one a day. Assuming we do not kill the bear in that time frame you are talking about 4 lynches and 8 kills at night. There are 12 innocents counting gifteds. I am hoping we will at least get a wolf in that time frame but Morsul is right in theory we have four days well less since the wolves just need to be at equal numbers and then it would become wolves versus bear which would be cool but boring in a way.

[satansaloser2005]

Over four pages. I hate you all. *whimpers* Off to read; back if I can.

[Boromir88]

I double <3s Mira's new sig. :p

at this point I'm just going to read down the page and comment as I go...

55-wilwa's looks ok, she brought an interesting point about the Lovers, but she doesn't have enough posts right now to form a more solid opinion beyond "ok."

66-Nog concludes Sauce is the cobbler. That is something I completely did not think about. There's a difference though between causing confusion because you can't figure out something the mod said and intentionally causing confusion for the sake of confusion (wow confusion was used way to much in that confusing sentence :rolleyes:). Also, would the cobbler say the bear should kill the wolves?

68- Is my computer crazy or did McCaber grey-out part of his post?

69- Nog's suspicion of Greenie looks better than what I thought about my previous scan. I am suspicious of Greenie because of some of her playful commments like her being "caught" as a wolf, and in #23 when she feels like she wants to do a list but won't because of the # of people who haven't posted (what about those who had?)

75- Greenie, your first posts were bear-focused...I wouldn't go so far as an obsession but you pointed out you had never been in a village with a bear and talked about the bear frequently early on.

Alas, so true. I wonder if I shouldn't take my own suspicions seriously because I always suspect you. A pinch of salt, indeed.
Trying to convince Nogrod he shouldn't vote for you because he usually finds you suspicious?

79- Greenie votes Nog

Next page...

[satansaloser2005]

P.S. Does anyone love me enough to give me a vote count? Please? :Merisu:

[Inziladun]

And if anyone is the most suspicious to me it is Morsul...although I'm wary about the people popping out to say the same. His vote seemed sudden and non-chalant, but how would a wolf-Morsul benefit by voting for an innocent-SpM? I mean if he was throwing a vote out of the blue...unless he was trying to cash-in on the Roa and Sauce battle.

Could be the latter. Morsul's vote was only the second one of the day. I could see a baddie having to sign off, but seizing on some previous suspicion thrown about by others to start a train.

I also have an unexplainable suspicious feeling towards Nogrod. I've only scanned the posts past #55, but his suspicions against Greenie make me wary. I've read Greenie horribly wrong before, but by Nogrod pointing out he's usually suspicious of Greenie, so maybe we should take it as a "pinch of salt" looks safe. Like he has picked someone he usually suspects and tells us we shouldn't think to0 much about it. I haven't read through his posts on Sauce and Roa yet.

Nog hasn't stood out to me much thus far, but his vote for McCaber did appear to be less well reasoned than I might expect from him.

[Morsul the Dark]

I've had a total of maybe 3 hours out of 24 to figure out who to vote for and I wasn't sure If I'd be back before the deadline because of my show...

I had to vote for someone based on the earliest posts that caused so much confusion about "Good" wolfs and the evidence placed by others I voted for SPM the vote was at best a 50-50 shot e was just in my opinion, the most suspicious out of those who had posted(When I voted).

I'm so Confused by Everyone thinking my vote was from left field?...

Sure my reasons weren't solid but then again day 1 not much to go on...

[Inziladun]

For Sally:


Greenie--> Nog (1)

Morsul--> SPM (1)

Pitch--> Boro (1)

SPM--> Morsul (1)

Roa--> SPM (2)

Nog--> McCaber (1)

[Morsul the Dark]

Ah thanks Inzil I was just about to do that

[Mirandir]

Just for the record, if anyone needs a vote count for the rest of the Day, I have my handy dandy notebook up to date next to me. :)

[Loslote]

Ah thanks Inzil I was just about to do that

You're not the only one. Darn. :p

I've got to vote now, so

++ Morsul

because he's the most suspicious one so far.

[Morsul the Dark]

Only popping in for a moment before I go to do my show... might have to vote now Even though I have nearly zero suspicions after reading everything.

Ok so the only one who really has a strong case would be SPM... the friendly wolf thing... but we were all confused.... but by the math not the wording...

SPM- you said we should always lyncha known cobbler rather than an unknown so Whether you're a cobbler or Wolf ....t]

Meaning I felt e was trying to confuse us... Note te first sentence I had nearly zero suspicion meaning I voted for SPM based on the fact he was the most suspicious of not suspicious people if I didn't have to vote I would've abstained because no one(At the point of that post) jumped out at me.

Does tat clear up my reasoning for anyone?

[Inziladun]

I've had a total of maybe 3 hours out of 24 to figure out who to vote for and I wasn't sure If I'd be back before the deadline because of my show...

I had to vote for someone based on the earliest posts that caused so much confusion about "Good" wolfs and the evidence placed by others I voted for SPM the vote was at best a 50-50 shot e was just in my opinion, the most suspicious out of those who had posted(When I voted).

I'm so Confused by Everyone thinking my vote was from left field?...

Sure my reasons weren't solid but then again day 1 not much to go on...

The reason your vote looked sudden and suspicious to me was the fact that you hadn't voiced any reservations about SPM before, and it looked like you were picking up on what Nog had said.

x/d with Lottie and Morsul

[Morsul the Dark]

that is true yes however being only able to come on for about 3 hours I didn't really ave time to do much of my own analisyss I had to hope that what I read was accurate enough... Thursday will be spotty as well

[Boromir88]

Not a whole lot on page 3, besides Hakon's posts and many people's reactions. I see no use in reading into any more about that. It is what it is.

The rest is basically between Roa and Sauce.

99- Sauce accuses Roa and Nog of being aggressive...not sure if that should be too shocking to Sauce. Roa is always aggressive and Nog while not always, can be. Is aggressiveness a sign of wolvery? If Sauce wasn't over-reacting to the suspicions before, he did in this post.

104- Sauce has a point, Roa throwing up her hands and trying to make it look like Sauce over-reacted to her very "moderate" suspicions.

Roa, in no way is this an insult, because it's a fine quality in werewolf. You push people, and you push hard, hence why some may look like they are over-reacting to what you think is a mild suspicion. Trust me, I know from first hand experience. :p

119- Nog doesn't like the buddying up people are doing, particularly Sauce. Noggers, I didn't take his words as appraisal and if he was and looking for favour, it didn't work.

Edit: crossed since Mira.

[Boromir88]

The reason your vote looked sudden and suspicious to me was the fact that you hadn't voiced any reservations about SPM before, and it looked like you were picking up on what Nog had said.

Was going to say that, but I think the bigger point is in post #17 he argues how possible is it for Sauce being a wolf two straight times, and did so until Fea corrected it.

[Hakon]

++Morsul

I will not mention half my reasons for this vote since half are meta data. Half are not. The half that are not are pretty clear. They have been mentioned and I feel no need to repeated them in this post. I am out for the night although if I have still not finished school work I will pop on around DL and see who we lynched and what their role is.

[Loslote]

that is true yes however being only able to come on for about 3 hours I didn't really ave time to do much of my own analisyss I had to hope that what I read was accurate enough...

Okay, that's suspicious. You didn't have time to do your own analysis? Then vote who seems the most suspicious to you, but don't vote because other people give good points against them! This may be a perfectly reasonable vote, and you could even be right (although I don't think so) but that reasoning just made me even more sure of my vote.

EDIT: xed with Hakon

[Morsul the Dark]

On a more serious note, the Living number seventeen. There are five baddies (three out of four Wolves, on the basis that one of them is on our side, one Bear and one Cobbler).


He started this this whole thing...

We misunderstood How many wolves because Mira accidently said seven ordos instead of six...

However until SPM said this I simply thought three wolves....


Good point. I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it.


Continues even says keep one wolf alive

After that I had a lot of reading and ended up skimming. That's when I read Nog's post it seemed logical to me. Maybe he could be a wolf tricking me into thinking SPM but I felt it was a sincere post:



Spm

In his first post he playfully argues why all the three first posters are wolves and then adds that Nerwen's "audacious accusation" towards Sally (saying she is too self-conscious in remarking about the first posters) is very suspicious.

In his next post he addresses the Bear; "how good you are, no pressure..." (and a smilie). Followed by a kind of humorous self-revealment for Nerwen's remark ("Lightning never strike in the same place twice, except in horror stories, of course... er ..." (and a smilie).

In his third post he introduces the "Friendly-wolf" -interpretation and talks about "ungraciousness" if we killed him.

In his fourth he turns now to Inzil who had questioned him of getting after Nerwen too readily and says Inzil looks suspicious for making that interpretation (like reduplicating his own suspicion on Nerwen).

In his fifth he says the friendly wolf would not turn against us if he was left the last one.

In his sixth he agrees with Nerwen on not willing to kill the friendly wolf before he has gotten a chance of "leaving trails or helped in other ways".

In his seventh he backed down from the "friendly wolf" interpretation (as it started turning more and more obvious it was not the case - I mean how did you read that from there to begin with???).

In his eighth he is sad because the friendly-wolf -stuff would have confused the wolves. Starts suspecting Roa for jumping on his Friendly-wolf -hypotheses and says it would be bad for a wolf to try that (which might be true, but it would be very good for a cobbler... and even better for one to say just this).

In his ninth he defended himself (very reasonably indeed) and went on the suspicion raised by Brinn against Roa, adding to it his own suspicions (Roa suspecting him & Nerwen from early posts).

So what should I say, other than he looks like a cobbler to me?

All this creating of confusion, all that could be seen as "contact-making" (more of that with Greenie), all the suspicion thrown around like at random (well that could be argued for as a tactics of an innocent as well) and to top it; his defence of himself of saying it would be bad for a wolf to do what he did... heh, so not a wolf, but... a cobbler?
..

[Morsul the Dark]

Okay, that's suspicious. You didn't have time to do your own analysis?


You're right, I should put my entire life on hold for WW, sorry but basing a vote on me on my having a life is pretty lousy reasoning itself oh well I suppose if I am lynched I'll have more time on my hands.

*headlaptop* (no desk around):p

[Loslote]

He started this this whole thing...

We misunderstood How many wolves because Mira accidently said seven ordos instead of six...

However until SPM said this I simply thought three wolves....

Continues even says keep one wolf alive


He did not start it, he gave a statistic that he thought was correct. The whole thing snowballed...SPAM's first post would have come to nothing if people hadn't jumped on it. It wasn't that ground breaking.

He says it would be a shame to kill the wolf that's on our side. I see nothing wrong, other than the fact that there is no wolf on our side.

EDIT: xed with Morsul

[Loslote]

You're right, I should put my entire life on hold for WW, sorry but basing a vote on me on my having a life is pretty lousy reasoning itself oh well I suppose if I am lynched I'll have more time on my hands.

I didn't say that. I said you should have looked at the person you were voting for, not just what other people said about him.

[Morsul the Dark]

Let's keep a wolf alive, sounds like a good idea when the point is to get rid of werewolves? I'm not saying He IS one I'm saying I feel there is enough evidence to place a albeit fairly shallow vote for him.

[satansaloser2005]

++Hakon

The level of shiftiness worries me. That and he should know better than to use meta reasons by now.

Sorry, but I don't have much else than that. Feel free to overrule me if the rest of you innocents wish, but I don't feel up to doing any work right now so this is as good as it gets. Good night, all, and hope to see you all in the Morning!

[Morsul the Dark]

I didn't say that. I said you should have looked at the person you were voting for, not just what other people said about him.

Fair enough sorry got a little miffed when I read suspicion based on my lack of time.

"Hands Loslate a Cookie" Downer's Friends? (meaning still WW nemesis:rolleyes:

[Inziladun]

Updated:


Greenie--> Nog (1)

Morsul--> SPM (1)

Pitch--> Boro (1)

SPM--> Morsul (1)

Roa--> SPM (2)

Nog--> McCaber (1)

Lottie--> Morsul (2)

Hakon--> Morsul (3)

Sally--> Hakon (1)


Totals- Morsul= 3
SPM= 2
Nog, Boro, McCaber, Hakon= 1

[Morsul the Dark]

WOO 3 votes day one! avoided all suspicion as wolf last game... attracted all suspicion as a non-baddie this game :eek:

[Lariren Shadow]

Am sick, haven't slept a lot, and currently despise writing papers.

++Hakon

His reasoning being mostly meta game and then flat out saying that he will not tell us the other half of his reasoning? That just seems way to secretive. Also basically claiming that Mira picked roles instead of it being random? Basically saying she lied? I just can't function these reasons. maybe its the Day 1 thing but at the same time I have this anger over that.

[Brinniel]

Sorry, sorry...I meant to be back earlier, but that didn't happen. Not to mention, I only got two hours of sleep last night and am already crashing...

Some quick thoughts:

-So far Spm doesn't give me any suspicious vibes. Actually, if you want to go back to the whole Friendly Wolf thing, his confusion on the issue seemed most genuine compared to others. Anyway, I'm not going to bother looking back at all that again since the FW thing has become one big headache that I really don't care to sort out right now.

-Does Greenie always vote Nog on Day One? I'm getting the sense of déjà vu here...

-Nogrod's vote for McCaber seemed to come out of nowhere, which makes me a bit wary.

-While Morsul's posts do seem a bit sketchy, I'm rather worried about this bandwagon I see developing. Of the Morsul voters so far, Loslote seems to be the opportunist. She came in right as a discussing bandwagon against Morsul was forming, and was quite eager to add to that suspicion and then vote him.

-Hakon's earlier meta-reasoning doesn't concern me so much as he's made these sort of errors before. But the fact that he states that half his reasoning to vote Morsul is meta after everyone tells him not to is indeed concerning. Now, I don't know if he's an innocent going on the wrong track, or a baddie who is using flimsy reasons to come up with suspicions, but he really does need to start coming up with a new strategy now because meta-reasoning just won't do.

[Mirandir]

If anything else is said about the meta game I'm modfiring everyone who brings it up. Seriously. META GAME HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WEREWOLF.

[Inziladun]

Blast it.

Morsul's defensiveness seemed as if it could be genuine frustration. I don't think I can go for him just now.

Hakon either, though I can understand Sally's vote for him, I think. Lari's looks a little worse to me, but I don't want to vote for her. She says she doesn't feel well, so I'll let it go. Hope you feel better.

I don't think I want on the Morsul or SPM trains just now.
Pitch's vote for Boro was sudden, and his reasoning for it was what didn't appear to me to be a very serious suspicion against Sally.

So it's

++ Pitch

[Morsul the Dark]

META........Morphise into a butterfly:D

Please don't modfire me...

I'd like to point out while a lot of people are Mentioning it only one person seems to be Using it...at least Obviously and overthetop

[Boromir88]

Nog hasn't stood out to me much thus far, but his vote for McCaber did appear to be less well reasoned than I might expect from him.

If feeling like he doesn't have strong suspicions he typically does go for one of the submarines on Day 1, and McCaber was one of the better choices (in my opinion...I've considered it).

But it is suspicious that he didn't follow up a vote for Greenie after pretty much calling her the bear. Maybe he didn't think there would be much support, but how many people did he think would vote McCaber?

[Brinniel]

++Loslote

I still find her vote for Morsul very opportunistic.

[Boromir88]

Hell if I know what to do...Morsul's 158 has me doubting about voting him.

Hakon shouldn't be lynched solely because he made some people mad.

I'm tempting a vote for Lari because of it, but that would be a waste today. Check her more out tomorrow.

++Morsul

Edit: crossed with Brinn's vote.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++Morsul

[Mirandir]

META........Morphise into a butterfly:D

Please don't modfire me...

I'd like to point out while a lot of people are Mentioning it only one person seems to be Using it...at least Obviously and overthetop

Okay, so I've calmed down slightly. Modfiring will only occur if people continue to use it as reasons why someone might be a certain role. As has been stated multiple times before, roles were randomly chosen (go ahead and ask my roommate if you don't believe me) and as such there is no rhyme or reason for who has what role.

[Mirandir]

Deadline! Day 1 is over. Night shall now commence. People who need to, send in your picks.

[Mirandir]

Oh yeah, Morsul is the Hunter.

[Nienna]

Mira needs 5 more minutes to finish the narration. We apologize.

[Mirandir]

Hakon, being fearful of this group of people and what might happen to him decided to spend his night in an inaccessible room on the fourth floor. He then proceeded to lock himself in so that he could have a nice and peaceful sleep. He spent the time dreaming innocent dreams and then woke up suddenly while he was being strangled. While suffocating and dying he spent the time trying to figure out how this killer could possibly have gotten into his room.

----------

The bear licked his chops before turning to leave the room. Getting in would have been quite the struggle for a normal person, considering all the locks on the door, but a quick swipe of a clawed paw had taken care of that. He was heading back to his own room to catch a few more zzz's before morning came but was ambushed in the hallway by four figures.

"Oh...hi guys," the bear said nervously backing into a corner. Upon examining the motion, that probably hadn't been the best of life choices.

"Oh, it's you," the leader of the pack said, mildly surprised. "Guess we'll be taking care of the village on our own then."

"Thanks for killing the Seer for us," one of his packmates snickered. "We really appreciate it."

"Yeah, anytime," the bear grinned meekly, casting a wary glance at the very sharp claws the wolves had chosen to display.

"You die now!" One of the wolves was apparently quite happy with the prospect.

"Oh crap." With that, a flash of wolfish teeth and claws flew into the air and attacked the bear.

---------------

Morning dawns and everyone awakes. They start a fire to make breakfast and the smoke pours into the kitchen instead of out of the chimney.

Fea complained “Who did not open the flue?”

McCaber responded “It was definitely open.”

“What could be the problem then?” chimed in Greenie.

Zil gave a deep sigh and said “I’ll go look.”

He climbed up the stairs to the next fireplace where the chimney comes through… “The blockage isn’t here” he yelled down. This process was repeated until he found the shredded remains of Hakon's door. "I think I might have found the problem!"

Upon entering the room, the group found obvious signs of a struggle. Pillow feathers were strewn across the room haphazardly, and the blankets on the bed were rumpled on the floor. But, there was no blood.

"Well this is strange..." Lari comments, looking around. Nods of agreement follow her statement.

It wasn't long before Sauce spotted a pair of legs sticking out of the fireplace. "I think we just found Hakon."

They pulled him out and discovered the obvious signs of strangulation.

"Guess people really are going to die..." wilwa commented. Silence fell again.

"Is anybody else missing?" Roa asked, looking around. "Wait, where's Boro?"

After confirming that no one had seen the man in question yet that day, they headed down the corridor towards his room. Before they turned the corner, however, a gruesome sight met their eyes.

There was Boro, lying in a pool of his own blood. The source of the spill was quite obvious. His neck had been severed almost completely through.

"It's like Harry Potter..." Lari whispered. Everyone opted to ignore her.

Upon closer examination, they found patches of fur and a bear's ear still on Boro's body.

"He was the bear? Who knew?" Nog said. "Well, I guess the wolves did us a favor then..." That knowledge was little comfort to the mourning group.

[Mirandir]

Okay official apology from moddess time... I massively slacked on the narration writing (hence why Morsul's still isn't done) and massively underestimated the amount of time it was going to take to do Boro's. I apologize, my good people, and hope dearly that you can forgive your loyal moddess.

The Dead:
Mira - moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1
Nienna - co-moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1
Morsul - Hunter, lynched Day 1
Hakon - Seer, suffocated and stuck up chimney Night 2
Boro - werebear, throat slit Night 2

The Living:
Brinn
Fea
Greenie
Inzil
Lari
Loslote
McCaber
Nerwen
Nog
Pitchwife
Roa
sally
Saucepan Man
wilwa

IT IS NOW DAY 2.

[satansaloser2005]

Yay Spark notes!

Yay dead bear!

Boo dead seer. :(



That is all. I'm going to bed. I'll do my best to look at Hakon's posts in the morning, kthnx.

[McCaber]

So we traded a seer for the Wererangutan. That's not really a deal I'd prefer making, as we still have four(!) wolves to deal with. At least there's only one kill a night now.

I'll take a look at Hakon's posts again, and see if I can find any dream hints in there.

EDIT: crossed with sally who said much the same as myself.

[Lariren Shadow]

So the last night kills are half yay and half boo! Yay werebear dead! Boo seer dead.

As for Hakon posts...the only thing I see is where he mentioned who would be "made evil" by the Moddess and he lists Boro as one of them. Fea and Sally are the others.

That's all that stood out to me.

I'm now going to bed.

[Roa_Aoife]

Hakon

In his first post, he says not to discuss the bear, and "tells the seer" to dream of the bear. In his second post, he lists the possible bear candidates from his point of view, including Bearomir. In his third post, he clarifies the timeline given by Morsul. Lastly, he votes Morsul.

From this, I believe (though I am in no way certain) that Hakon dreamed Bearomir, then tried to leave the necessary hints without giving himself away.

That's my interpretation, anyways. I can't be sure, because very little of Hakon's actions make sense to me. But we know who killed Hakon, because he's dead too. I think we ought to give more weight to examining Bearomir's death and the Morsul bandwagon's 3 surviving members.

Which I'll get to in the morning after class. Goodnight all.


And to make sure we have no confusion, the count is now:

4 wolves
1 cobbler
2 lovers
1 ranger
6 innocents

[Nerwen]

So we traded a seer for the Wererangutan. That's not really a deal I'd prefer making, as we still have four(!) wolves to deal with. At least there's only one kill a night now.

Which almost makes it worth it– so thanks, Wolves! We owe you!

Having looked at Hakon's posts, I agree with Roa and Lari that he probably dreamed Bearomir– and if not, he gave no hints of who he did dream. However, since he didn't say much, believe I'll give his posts in full.

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

Which, I suppose, is exactly what he did.

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

Quite amusing: it seems that he used invalid meta-game reasoning, and guess what? It gave him the Bear!

I think we can dismiss his mention of Fea and Sally, since he speaks of them as possible Bear-candidates, and whatever they are, they're not Bears. (*applause* Thank you, Captain Nerwen Obvious!)

Then he explains Morsul's reasoning on the "time-limit".

Then he votes Morsul:

++Morsul

I will not mention half my reasons for this vote since half are meta data. Half are not. The half that are not are pretty clear. They have been mentioned and I feel no need to repeated them in this post. I am out for the night although if I have still not finished school work I will pop on around DL and see who we lynched and what their role is.

Here, I think, we have the explanation for why on Earth Hakon would vote Morsul if he had already bagged a villain. In Hakon's view, meta-reasoning had already served him well on more than one occasion (note his mention of Saucepan Wolf in the last game) and he started putting too much faith in it.

That's my interpretation, anyways. I can't be sure, because very little of Hakon's actions make sense to me. But we know who killed Hakon, because he's dead too. I think we ought to give more weight to examining Bearomir's death and the Morsul bandwagon's 3 surviving members.

Agreed. I'll look at them now myself.

I wonder if the wolves had guessed who it was they were killing? Reading through yesterDay, I started to think Boro might be the Bear. I say this, not to congratulate myself, but because if I picked him out the wolves might have too, and in that case killing him implies wolves who are cautious and unwilling to gamble.

[Pitchwife]

Anybody around? I don't have much time this Morning, so just a few thoughts before I'm off to work.
Boro did talk a lot about the Bear yesterDay (hiding in the open), especially about setting the Bear and the Wolves against each other. If the wolves identified him because of that, they may have read his statements as a declaration of war and decided to get rid of him before he became a threat.
I concur with Nerwen's analysis of Hakon's posts. With hindsight, Hakon talked quite a bit about the Seer, when he wasn't busy with meta-reasoning, so Boro may have guessed that Hakon had dreamed him. But with both of them dead, this question is now rather academic.
À propos Hakon - fulfilling Nog's prophecy, I'm now indeed suspecting those who voted him, i. e. sally and Lari. Not for the vote per se, which is understandable in a way (as I said yesterDay, I was briefly tempted to vote him myself), but both have up to now shown a detached, can't-really-be-bothered attitude which, combined with voting an easy victim, I find more than slightly unnerving.
Among the Morsul voters, I'd say SpM had the most reason to vote him, while both Lottie's and Fea's votes seem more opportunistic.
Other votes:
Greenie for Nog - hardly surprising, as suspecting each other seems a family tradition with them.
Nog for McCaber - well, a little bit out of the blue, but consistent with his tendency to go for the subs (why McCaber, though, rather than any other?).
Me for Boro - actually rather an impromptu reaction to something that jumped out at me and seemed slightly furry than a thoroughly thought-out case, but a lucky one, as it turns out.
Zil for me - not quite undeserved, as my reason for voting Boro was rather weak indeed.
Brinn for Lottie - for opportunism in voting Morsul; can't fault her for it.
Have to be off to work now, see you all later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Phew! Given Morsul’s vote yesterday and the absence of narrative, I was wondering for a while there whether he might have taken me with him. I guess that he had not nominated a target before he was lynched.

My preliminary thoughts on the overNight kills are much as others have stated. It looks like Hakon may have dreamed of Boro and that Boro picked up on this. I am not sure whether the Wolves spotted Boro as the Bear. He did refer to the Bear quite a lot, but then so did others (including me). If they did spot him, then Nerwen’s point is a good one. It suggests that they are a cautious bunch. However, it is quite possible that they did not spot him and so it is worth considering why else they may have targeted him. More thoughts on this, and on the voting, coming up.

In the meantime - Roa, I am not going to spend much time toDay rehashing our, erm, discussions of yesterDay. However, I would make the point that I did not ‘back off’ from you yesterDay, or not at least in the sense that you imply. My suspicions of you were by no means conclusive in my mind and I made clear that I was reserving judgment. Pitch made the reasonable point that our interaction could well be one of those clashes of vocal innocents and, on reflection, I thought that this could well be the case, particularly since, as the Day wore on, your approach, while frustrating, looked less to me the behaviour of a Wolf and more that of a single-minded (and misguided) innocent. Your vote for me reinforces my view in that regard, as there was a reasonable prospect that I might be lynched and, if I was, then that would have reflected badly on you.

I will be around intermittently toDay, so I’ll be back in a while with some analysis.

[A Little Green]

I'm here! First off, a little (green) flood of comments on first yesterDay, then toDay.
Greenie has voted for Nogrod. From what I can tell it's because he suspected her, even though it's been stated that he always does. It seems off to me, somehow, but then as I said, I'm pointedly ignoring Nogrod so I don't do the same. I stated my reasons for voting him yesterDay. I'll state them again now since it seems I wasn't as clear as I could have been. It was not because he suspected me. It was because he made weak reasons sound big and because he suspected people who had been voiced some suspicion of, which stank of wolf. Like I've said before, it's possible that he just found the same people suspicious as some others. It is also possible that he's evil and wants to increase suspicion on those who already have some.
Going against my conscience & will and voting for Greenie who I suspected and who retaliated like she just tried to get out of that with the "retaliatory move". :confused: I'm suspicious because I retaliated with a retaliatory move? How can you retaliate without a retaliatory move? Could you clarify, please, I have no idea what you are talking about.
I am suspicious of Greenie because of some of her playful commments like her being "caught" as a wolf, and in #23 when she feels like she wants to do a list but won't because of the # of people who haven't posted (what about those who had?)The playful comments were a joke. Period. As for not making a list, I think I said (and if I didn't I'm sorry and embarrassed because I meant to) that I had next to nothing to say of the ones who had. Therefore, the list would have been labelling everyone either as "not showed up" or "no idea" which struck me as pointless.
Okay, that's suspicious. You didn't have time to do your own analysis? Then vote who seems the most suspicious to you, but don't vote because other people give good points against them! This may be a perfectly reasonable vote, and you could even be right (although I don't think so) but that reasoning just made me even more sure of my vote.I agree it's no good to trust what others say instead of thinking for yourself. But if someone gives a good argument against someone else, it is going to sway at least my opinion. And that, I think, is kind of the point - why share your suspicions if not to convince others that you're right? If no one was ever swayed by someone else's arguments, there would be no point in argumenting in the first place.
Does Greenie always vote Nog on Day One? I'm getting the sense of déjà vu here...Not always. Often. :rolleyes:
But it is suspicious that he didn't follow up a vote for Greenie after pretty much calling her the bear. Maybe he didn't think there would be much support, but how many people did he think would vote McCaber?All right, while bearing in mind that this statement came from the Bear (yay what a sentence!), it's still a valid point I meant to bring up myself. He seemed convinced I was the Werebear. Why didn't he vote for me? An innocent who thinks he has found a baddie doesn't go and vote for some random submarine instead. I don't know how voting McCaber would have benefitted a wolf-Nog, but even less why an innocent Nog would have done that if he believed in what he himself had said (and an innocent doesn't have much cause to say something he doesn't believe himself - unless it's some ploy (eurgh)).
Phew! Given Morsul’s vote yesterday and the absence of narrative, I was wondering for a while there whether he might have taken me with him. I guess that he had not nominated a target before he was lynched.I think the rules say the hunter can only kill if attacked at Night.

Okay. I can't decide if we're well off now or not. On one hand, the bear is dead which means that there'll only be one kill per Night from now on, which is cool. (Tremble, Nerwen, it looks as if your position as the village Captain Obvious was in danger!) On the other hand, we've lost the Seer, and our wolves must be rather happy right now. They've rid themselves of the Seer, the Bear, and the Hunter during one Day and Night.

I'll be around every now and then until my voting time, I have some school stuff to attend to but I'll try to pop up as often as I can.


EDIT: bolding

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by SpM
I am suspicious of Greenie because of some of her playful commments like her being "caught" as a wolf, and in #23 when she feels like she wants to do a list but won't because of the # of people who haven't posted (what about those who had?)

Eh? It wasn’t me who said that … :confused:

I think the rules say the hunter can only kill if attacked at Night.

Doh! You mean I was worried for nothing …

*Note to self – be sure to read rules properly* :rolleyes:

For ease of reference, here’s the Day 1 voting record:

Greenie -> Nogrod (Nogrod - 1)
Morsul -> SpM (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 1)
Pitchwife -> Boro (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 1, Boro - 1)
SpM -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 1, Boro - 1, Morsul - 1)
Roa -> SpM (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 1)
Nogrod -> McCaber (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 1, McCaber - 1)
Loslote -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 2, McCaber - 1)
Hakon -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1)
sally -> Hakon (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 1)
Lari -> Hakon (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2)
Inzil -> Pitchwife (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1)
Brinn -> Loslote (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1, Loslote -1)
Boro -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 4, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1, Loslote -1)
Fea -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 5, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1, Loslote -1)

Did not vote – McCaber, Nerwen, wilwa (Is this right? I can’t see their votes.)

Analysis on its way – when I get a chance.

[wilwarin538]

K, sorry I didn't do much yesterDay, I'm just going through some stuff right now, but I should be able to come on more toDay, I hope. Can't say much now, just lettting you know I will show up again in a few hours.

[Nerwen]

The Saucepan Man
...Who is, appropriately, one noisy player. This took ages!

#11.
Banter, joke-suspecting everyone who has posted so far. Comments on overall set-up. This is where the "Friendly Wolf" thing first appears. He finishes by saying that it would be best to kill the Bear, but that this won't be easy since they leave few tracks.

#15.
[Replying to Greenie's question on how hard the Bear will be to catch]
That depends how good the Bear is. No pressure, by the way, Bear.
[Replying to my comment that last time he jokingly accused everyone, he was a wolf.]
True. But, as you know, lightning never strikes in the same place twice. Except in horror stories, of course … er ... oh … ;)

An odd response. May just be a joke, but could also be a wolf trying to signal to the cobbler (or even vice versa). This was still in the jokey early part of the Day, however, so I wouldn't want to read too much into it. He's doing a lot of winking, though...

#20.
I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it. ;)

I should guess that this is the comment that did most to bring him under suspicion later, as it looks very much as though he is hinting that he is the "Friendly Wolf". Could also be trying to suggest that the "Friendly Wolf" leave clues to stop us lynching him.

Repeats that killing the Bear would be good, but difficult to accomplish.

Speculates on "the dynamic between the Wolves and the Bear". Concludes that "the Innocents and the Wolves have a mutual interest in finding and killing the Bear". Asks if there is "any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?"

#21. [Replying to Inzil.]
I rather got the impression that Nerwen was being flippant. In which case, your readiness to seize upon this as suspicious is, in itself, somewhat suspicious.

Which I agreed with.

#25. Relying to Morsul, who said that we would still need to kill the "Friendly Wolf".
But if the friendly Wolf is the last remaining Wolf, I hardly think that he is going to suddenly turn on the remaining innocents ...

#29.
Says that my comment about hoping we will not lynch the "Friendly Wolf" too soon is "worth bearing in mind".

These last two are, again, rather odd comments. I wondered at the time if he could be the "Friendly Wolf"... so again it raises the possibility that he was deliberately posing as a non-existent role. That would, though highly suspicious, also be extremely foolhardy for a wolf at that stage. At this stage I'd guess his role to be either the cobbler, or else an innocent who perhaps thought I was the FW.

#35.Accepts Inzil's demolition of the "Friendly Wolf" theory; says he misinterpreted the narration. Points out that Mira has made a mistake and given the wrong number of ordos. Comments that at least we now have an even greater chance of lynching a baddie.

#43. Is glad the mistake is cleared up; thinks we should perhaps have kept the "Friendly Wolf" idea going longer, to confuse the Wolves; doesn't like the way Roa suspects him for his mistake.

#47. Is astonished that anyone could think the "Friendly Wolf" idea was a ruse by a baddie, since that interpretation of the narrative would not occur to someone (i.e. a wolf) who knew its true meaning, and since the "ruse" would depend on most of the village also being taken in. Thinks Roa's apparent mistake about the number of wolves may have been an actual trick. Roa's quickness to jump on people makes him uneasy.

–Which is all quite reasonable.

#49. Agrees with Roa that we need to vote for someone, but is reserving judgement for now.

#99. Suspects Roa for aggression, but admits that she is always like that. Is still reserving judgement. Reiterates (replying to Nogrod, who find him suspicious) that the "Friendly Wolf" ruse would be a bad one. Defends Greenie against Nogrod's charge that her preoccupation with the Bear is itself bearish– points out that Bears are "a rare feature of WW games" so it's not surprising people are concerned about them. Says Nogrod seems "uncharacteristically aggressive", but is perhaps "too in your face" to be a wolf.

A cobbler's unwillingness to go after anyone too strongly, in case that person is a wolf? Perhaps.

Then he says this:
I'm glad to see that Boro, at least, caught my drift concerning the dynamics between the Bear and the Wolves. I pretty much agree with all that he says. It's not a case of trying to get one or t'other of them on our side or relying on them to side with us, but rather pointing out, so that they are clear, what it is their best interests to do.

Now he– SPM– is preoccupied with the Bear. Why? It's not unreasonable, as the bear (was!) is indeed a menace, and also not one anyone's used to. However, it is in the interests of both wolves and cobbler to locate the Bear, as well as the village. It's also in their interest to keep us thinking about the Bear instead of them. (Yeah, I did mean that part of my Day One post.)

#104. Further defends himself against Roa.

#105. Replying to Morsul, who voted him.
Congratulations. You have just appeared between my crosshairs.
Morsul's reason for voting him was indeed quite weird– because of the "Friendly Wolf" thing, which he also believed, and also because of what seems to be a severe case of the "Gambler's Fallacy".

#110. Defends himself against Roa, accusing her of misrepresenting his case against her. Denies he is over-defensive about the "Friendly Wolf" affair, since it has in fact brought him under suspicion.

#114. Says he needs to vote soon.

Comments that Hakon is "wrong-headed" and "unhelpful" but should not be voted for that. Is somewhat uneasy about Pitch– "He just seems to be sitting on the sidelines appearing reasonable but stirring the pot every now and then", and about Nogrod due to his aggression.

Says he is most worried about Morsul, because of the dodgy reasoning behind his vote.

#118.[Replying to Roa, who claims everyone is assuming the Bear will help the village]
I most certainly am not. I agree that we cannot rely on the Bear do do anything vis-a-vis the Wolves. Ditto the Wolves vis-a-vis the Bear. However, I see no harm in pointing out, for the Bear's benefit, that it is in his interests to go after the Wolves.

Dislikes Pitch's vote for Boro, as his case "looks to be the flimsiest of the flim to me."

#120. Very sharp response to Nogrod's comment that he has been praising Boro for stating the obvious:
Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie? :p First Greenie and now me. Since when does a passing mention in a single post constitute praising someone "so many times"?

Says he will probably vote for Morsul.

#123.And does. Not, I think, a particularly suspicious vote.

Comments. Probably not a wolf, as I think the FW business looked like a genuine mistake. May be the cobbler. Some of his posts look like attempts to signal to other players, and his defence of Boro could be that of a cobbler who had mistaken Bearishness for wolfishness.

Or not. An innocent might try to sound out other players too.

Overall, I'd say the evidence is inconclusive. If evil, he is more likely cobbler than wolf.

EDIT:X'd with a host; added comment on vote.

[Nerwen]

Loslote

#126. Checks in.

#129. Says Morsul looks most suspicious. "His logic has left me confused while I try to figure out what he could possibly mean, and then trying to figure out where he got it."

At this point Morsul already had a vote, so this looks a little opportunistic.

Dislikes Hakon's meta-game reasoning. Doesn't think SPM is a were of any kind, as he seems "genuine". Has no read on Roa and will look at her. (Didn't.)

#132. Asks what Morsul meant by "time limit".


#142. Votes Morsul, "because he's the most suspicious one so far."

#143. [Replying to Morsul's defence of his vote for SPM]
Okay, that's suspicious. You didn't have time to do your own analysis? Then vote who seems the most suspicious to you, but don't vote because other people give good points against them! This may be a perfectly reasonable vote, and you could even be right (although I don't think so) but that reasoning just made me even more sure of my vote.

#149. Defends SPM against Morsul's charges.

#153.[Replying to Morsul, who complained that she wanted him to put his "entire life on hold" in order to do analyses]
I didn't say that. I said you should have looked at the person you were voting for, not just what other people said about him.

*shrugs* As I said, the vote is perhaps a little opportunistic. The thing is, though, that Morsul actually had behaved quite suspiciously, so that voting him is not in itself a sign of guilt... while, at the same time, it's likely enough that the wolves took advantage of the situation. (Ditto with Hakon.)

She really goes out of her way to defend SPM. This may be simply due to exasperation with Morsul. However, it may also point to a connection.

[The Saucepan Man]

Thoughts on the votes:

Four Wolves. If I was them, I would try to spread the votes, particularly given that it looked from a reasonably early stage in the voting (roughly the time of Hakon’s vote) like Morsul would most likely be lynched.

Morsul voters – If I am right about spreading the votes, I would guess that there is no more than one Wolf here, if that. Two Morsul voters are dead, leaving me, Loslote and Fea. Fea’s vote was unreasoned, although Morsul was one of the few that she expressed suspicion of earlier in the Day. Also, I am doubtful whether a Wolf would want to be ‘sealing the deal’, as it were, on the lynching of an innocent Morsul. To my mind, therefore, if there was a Wolf in the Morsul bandwagon, it more likely to have been Loslote. As I think has already be noted, her vote does look to have been rather opportunistic. That said, it is quite possible that the Wolves avoided this bandwagon altogether.

Hakon voters – Lari and sally – It’s unlikely that they are both Wolves, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one of them is. Hakon did rather give people an excuse to vote for him with all his Meta-reasoning stuff, and I wouldn’t put it past a Wolf to take advantage of this. A Wolf wouldn’t necessarily want to get caught in the lynching of the Seer, but it seems unlikely that the Wolves spotted him, or he would have had the pleasure of two visits last Night.

Greenie for Nogrod – Given his accusation of her, based on what I thought to be rather weak evidence, I can see why she might vote for him. That said, she does not appear to have looked very closely at many others and she may have used this thing about her frequently voting for him as cover to place an ‘easy’ vote.

Pitchwife for Boro – Given what we know now, it looks good. However, as I pointed out yesterDay, it was based on very little evidence indeed and rather came out of nowhere. Perhaps a PitchWolf had spotted the Bear and was signalling to his packmates. Not at all sure about this one.

Roa for me – Not a surprise, given our interaction yesterDay. And, as mentioned previously, this doesn’t look much like a Wolfish vote to me.

Nogrod for McCaber – Now, I know that Nogrod dislikes the quiet types. But this does rather give him an excuse to place what looks to me to be an incredibly safe vote. There was little prospect of McCaber being lynched so he was the ideal candidate for a Wolf who had to vote relatively early and didn’t want to be caught in a bandwagon. And the reasoning was poor – ‘buddying up’, based only on McCaber’s comment that Nogrod was making sense. You really need to take those anti-exagerration pills, Noggie. :p

Inzil for Pitchwife – Again, a rather safe vote, given that there was little prospect of Pitch being lynched at the time that it was placed. But the reasoning was sound (for a Day 1 vote). Pitch’s vote for Boro did look strange at the time.

Brinn for Loslote- I can’t fault the reasoning. Loslote’s vote did look opportunistic. But, once again, relatively safe and could even be a Wolf-on-Wolf. The prospect of Loslote being lynched was minimal and so it would have been a good opportunity for a Wolfish Brinn to vote for a Wolfish Loslote.

Non-voters – Wilwa and McCaber explained, I think, that they might not have the opportunity to vote. I am not sure that Nerwen has explained her non-vote. I don’t like non-voters, because I find people’s votes to be some of the most useful items of evidence that we have. That said, it would be quite dangerous for a Wolf deliberately not to vote on Day 1, given that a second consecutive non-vote will, I think, trigger elimination by modfire.

In summary, to my mind the most Wolfish votes are those of Loslote, Nogrod and one of the Hakon votes. Possible Wolfish votes – Fea, Inzil and Brinn. Not sure about Greenie, Pitch and the non-voters, and Roa’s vote looks to me the least Wolfish.

Note – this is based purely on votes.

[Brinniel]

We keep shooting Hakon down, but in the last three games he has now hunted a wolf, protected the seer, and dreamt a werebear. He must be doing something right. I don't think we can really put it against him if he dreamt Boro for meta-reasons. The roles here may be completely random, but on Night 1 there is absolutely nothing within the game to go off of since no one's posted yet. So the only thing a seer can do is guess or choose based off experiences from past games. His ultimate mistake was bringing that meta-reasoning into Day One, which he shouldn't have...but hopefully he's learned his lesson. I was rather surprised to discover Hakon was the seer, though seeing his posts it does add up. The reasons why he was killed seem fairly obvious now knowing who the werebear was. Hakon would've been fairly lynchable toDay, but that would've meant him revealing which would expose Boro if he had indeed dreamt of him.

From yesterDay's voting, I still suspect Loslote for being opportunistic and am still wary of Nogrod since his vote seemed to come out of thin air. I'm also not happy with Lari and Sally's votes because while Hakon was annoying everyone, I don't think it's a valid reason to vote him. Because irritating and not following the rules does not necessarily equal wolf. And anyway, if he continued to pull this crap if he were still alive, he would've been modfired.

Of course, there's much more to look at than just the voting but I'm at work now and don't really have time to thoroughly look at everyone, so it'll have to wait for later. Don't expect a whole lot from me toDay since it's another long day and I'm still lacking sleep, but I'll do my best. ToMorrow will be much better since it'll be the weekend (yay).

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm here and reading. I'll probably be off and on since I have a mammoth of a paper to write, and I think I'm getting sick, but I'll do my best to be around as much as possible. I probably won't have time for analysis until later though.

[Inziladun]

Some very brief thoughts:

If a Seer wants to use meta-reasoning to aid in choosing whom to dream of, that's fine. Otherwise, it's not an advisable tactic, especially when one tries to base votes solely on it.

I don't like Loslote's vote on Morsul. Highly band-waggonish. Same with Fea, though as I think SPM said, it would have been pretty brash of a Feawolf to brag about 'sealing the deal'.

The Hakon voters ought to be heavily scrutinised as well. I think it highly likely there's at least one wolf there. Lari still looks a little worse to me than Sally.

Nog's vote for McCaber still looks odd. Yes, I know he doesn't like submarines, but I think there were better targets than McCaber. I look forward to hearing from Nog toDay.

Pitch's vote could well have been just for safety's sake. Other than his vote, I haven't seen much suspicious about him, but he's worth keeping in mind.

More as time allows.

[Roa_Aoife]

Responding as I go, so I may be repeating some others.

#179- Pitchwife: We can't know for sure that the wolves spotted Boro for the bear. We shouldn't fall into the trap of ruling out other causes of death.

#180- SPM: Having read through yesterDay with a cooler head, I am beginning to see Pitch's point. The ironic part is that I was trying to avoid getting stuck on that with Nogrod and ended up falling into it with you instead. I still think you were harsh to jump on me for an early, admittedly weak suspicion, given that's what everyone was doing at the time, though. You aren't off my radar- I'm just broadening my range of attention so I don't miss anyone else.

#182- SPM: Isn't not reading the rules properly what caused all the confusion on Day 1? :rolleyes:

#184- Nerwen: SPM as the cobbler? It's possible, but as we saw last game, pretending to be the cobbler works for a wolf, and SPM saw that too. Still we aren't at a point yet where the cobbler is a huge concern, so cobbler spotting isn't going to help right now.

#186- SPM: I see your point about the possible wolf in the Hakon voters. I don't agree with your assessment of Loslote's vote, however. Loslote's vote, to me, looked the same as yours, and after voting, she continued to argue against Morsul. Morsul's vote almost changed my mind, and we know how amazing that is. It's not terribly surprising that someone who just arrived to find his vote highly suspicious. I would think that the people who voted after Morsul's defense, which to my mind was very reasonable, look more suspicious. And we know one baddie was involved there.

Also, I have always held to the belief that you should vote whoever you feel is that most suspicious, rather than limiting yourself to those who have a possibility of getting lynched. So I don't agree with you in that anyone who voted for someone you didn't have a high chance of getting lynched is suspicious necessarily. At least it would take more than that to convince me.

Of the Morsul voters, I think Fea looks the most suspicious. Why? Because if anything was an easy vote, it was that. And because no one would suspect a wolf of being so obvious, so she could certainly get away with it. I wouldn't put it past Fea at all to pull a move like that, and her vote was the least reasoned, aside from Boro's and Hakon's, and one of them was evil, while the other I've yet to see give a well-reasoned vote. We had a lot of material to go on yesterDay, but her reason for voting Morsul was because he made her do a probability lesson. And this vote came well after his defense.


Lastly, Inzil, you basically just gave us the cliff notes of SPM's #186. :p

Also, my slightly fevered brain tells me I should take a nap before I tackle the ethics surrounding the Hiroshima bombings. I'll be back later.

[Inziladun]

Of the Morsul voters, I think Fea looks the most suspicious. Why? Because if anything was an easy vote, it was that. And because no one would suspect a wolf of being so obvious, so she could certainly get away with it. I wouldn't put it past Fea at all to pull a move like that, and her vote was the least reasoned, aside from Boro's and Hakon's, and one of them was evil, while the other I've yet to see give a well-reasoned vote. We had a lot of material to go on yesterDay, but her reason for voting Morsul was because he made her do a probability lesson. And this vote came well after his defense.

You're right, in that it probably isn't wise to put anything past Fea.


Lastly, Inzil, you basically just gave us the cliff notes of SPM's #186. :p

Did I? Sorry. I haven't yet read everything toDay.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have had a look through Boro’s posts – there were more than I thought!

As has been noted, he talked a lot about Bear tactics and Bear v Wolf dynamics. Probably more so than anyone else, so perhaps he was attacked because the Wolves had spotted him. If so, he only has himself to blame, as that was his advice to them. :D However, we cannot be sure that they did, so it is worth looking to see whether they might have had some other reason for attacking him.

At various points, he expressed suspicion to varying degrees about a fair few people. This figures, I suppose, as he would want to keep his options open. Other than Morsul, however, his main suspect appears to have been sally (#101 and #131), although he wavered to and fro on Nogrod and Greenie a bit (#131, #135 and #164) and noted right at the end that he was tempted to vote for Lari but would check her out the next Day (#166). I think that, if the Wolves did target Boro because of something that he said about one of them, then this would point towards sally, and perhaps Lari, more than anyone else. Which is interesting, given that they are the two Hakon voters, and I think one of them is quite likely a Wolf. But it’s a fairly tenuous lead, and I didn’t see much else in what he said that might have provoked the Wolves to attack him.

[The Saucepan Man]

You aren't off my radar- I'm just broadening my range of attention so I don't miss anyone else.

Charmed, I am sure. The feelings’ mutual. :p

SPM: Isn't not reading the rules properly what caused all the confusion on Day 1?

Hehe. I know, I know. Hence my self-admonishment. :rolleyes:

I don't agree with your assessment of Loslote's vote, however. Loslote's vote, to me, looked the same as yours, and after voting, she continued to argue against Morsul.

I’ll have to look back at it again, but I recall thinking it rather opportunistic at the time. With the benefit of hindsight, I think that Morsul would have looked incredibly lynchable to a Wolf at that point and, if I were a Wolf, I would always prefer to find a nice comfy seat at the front of a bandwaggon, rather than an uncomfortably bumpy one right at the back. That’s the reason that I think Loslote looks the more Wolfish than Fea out of the two, but I take your point about not putting anything past Fea. As I mentioned previously, however, it is always possible that, precisely because Morsul looked lynchable, the Wolves avoided that bandwaggon altogether.

Also, I have always held to the belief that you should vote whoever you feel is that most suspicious, rather than limiting yourself to those who have a possibility of getting lynched. So I don't agree with you in that anyone who voted for someone you didn't have a high chance of getting lynched is suspicious necessarily. At least it would take more than that to convince me.

I agree that this, in itself, is not enough to establish Wolfishness. But it is one of the patterns that I look for in the votes. Wolves like to hunker down in nice, warm, 'safe' votes if they can, particularly when a lynchable innocent looks to be in the firing line. I am also always wary of anything that looks that it might be a safe Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

[A Little Green]

Eh? It wasn’t me who said that …Oh no! Sorry! It must have been Boro, then, I noticed when I was reading that I kept mixing the two of you up... :o
Greenie for Nogrod – Given his accusation of her, based on what I thought to be rather weak evidence, I can see why she might vote for him. That said, she does not appear to have looked very closely at many others and she may have used this thing about her frequently voting for him as cover to place an ‘easy’ vote.More than not looking closely at others, I think it was not seeing much eyebrow-raising stuff in others.

Now a quick list before I'm off to write a French essay on preserving water. Eurgh.

Brinn - seems innocentish
Fea - Roa has a good point about her vote, I have little on her apart from that. The poems were cool, though.
Greenie - that's me.
Inzil - no read, dunno why since he's been posting quite actively. Might take a look at him toMorrow if we both are alive (I won't have the time toDay).
Lari - too little to go on
Loslote - can't say, really - I can see how her vote could appear very opportunistic, but I don't have enough data from her to say this or that.
McCaber - too little to go on
Nerwen - leaning innocent
Nog - is still the only one I have actual arguments against. I believe I have talked enough about him already, I'd love it if he appeared before I vote because I had some questions for him. I will not judge this or that before I've had those questions answered.
Pitchwife - seems innocent
Roa - seems so sensible it frightens me, if you know what I mean. She makes soooo much sense that I'm lulled into thinking "she makes sense, she can't be a wolf", when I know that making or not making sense doesn't necessarily have anything to do with being or not being a wolf. Actually, more than once, while reading, I caught myself thinking "What if Roa is a wolf?"
sally - too little to go on
Saucepan Man - leaning innocent
wilwa - too little to go on

Four of the above people are wolves. Nog? Roa? Fea? Sally, McCab, Loslote, Wilwa, Lari? Brinn (knowing my skill in reading her)? Dunno.

Heeeeeeeeeeey actually I got an idea. Nog and Roa together? I'm not sure if I remember this right but wasn't Roa suspecting Nog early on Day 1, but dropped the suspicion after a while? Convenient wolf-on-wolf? I'd love to investigate but now I have to write the stupid essay. Back when I'm finished!

[Nogrod]

I think this will be the Nth time I say this, but let me try and formulate it this way (if it would finally hammer in to some thick skulls around... :confused:).

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1

On Day1 never vote a player who actually "invests in the game", takes time and effort to actually produce ideas, reads and comments on others, builds or tries to build cases... throwing her/his neck forwards in general.

Elucidation of the rule

Those people can be read on later Days much better than those who act like submarines - and it is fair to let those people play who actually play and sink the submarines.

First amendment to the NwwrD1

If one of the people referred to in the NwwwD1 as "those who invest into the game" turns out so suspicious that there is a clear and open argument beyond any reasonable doubt that the person is a baddie, then neglect NwwrD1 and vote for the person.

Second amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game", then try to affect the lynching as to save those you think fit the description or who feel the most innocent.

Third amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game" and there is no chance to stay around at the deadline and affect the voting, then pick the most suspicious person from the low-posters / non-involveds and hope for the best.


My late dinner is ready and cooling... More thoughts soonish.

[Pitchwife]

Back and just finished reading. One little comment:
Perhaps a PitchWolf had spotted the Bear and was signalling to his packmates.
Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight? As I said above, my vote was more of a shot in the dark that luckily hit home. I had no idea Boro was the Bear, of all furry things, though in retrospect clues weren't altogether lacking.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I just woke up from my nap and now I'm catching up.

[Roa_Aoife]

#194- Greenie: Not again! Eventually, people must realize that this argument ends up getting me lynched innocent more often than it catches me as a wolf. Which would imply it never catches me as a wolf- it would be similar to Hakon's metagaming. Sure he got lucky, but that doesn't mean his reasoning was sound. (Sorry, but one can only be lynched for making sense so many times before it gets irritating.) Also, I never suspected Nog. I made a point of ignoring him, so I wouldn't end up focusing on him instead of looking for wolves. (Which is what I ended up doing with SPM, so perhaps I ought to add him to my "ignore on Day 1" book, as well.)

#195- Nogrod: Yes, we know your rules. :rolleyes: However, can you explain why you found McCaber more suspicious than the other low posters?

Well that didn't take too long. Where is everybody?

[A Little Green]

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight?Maybe he wanted to get Borobear lynched instead of wasting a Night-kill on him? Still, it's a flawed theory - why lynch the Bear if you have an alternative of killing him at Night so that he can kill once too? Ok, there's a chance he might target a wolf, but the chance isn't that big.

I'd love to check what's between Roa and Nog, but now I'm ravenous and will get something to eat first. And also, I'll vote in an hour, or I hope to, since I need to go to bed (my alarm clock will ring in something like nine hours from now). Back in a minute! Be productive while I'm away so I'll have some lovely new last-minute ideas. Please?

EDIT: x-ed with Roa

[A Little Green]

#194- Greenie: Not again! Eventually, people must realize that this argument ends up getting me lynched innocent more often than it catches me as a wolf. Which would imply it never catches me as a wolf- it would be similar to Hakon's metagaming. Sure he got lucky, but that doesn't mean his reasoning was sound. (Sorry, but one can only be lynched for making sense so many times before it gets irritating.)Just to be clear - I wasn't suspecting you because you are making sense - I just find it creepy when I realise I'm discarding the possibility of someone being a baddie because s/he is making so much sense. So when I became too conscious that I was doing exactly this with you, I sort of got an opposite reaction (ie. continuously thinking "Roa could be a wolf"). And then I got this funny idea of you and Nog being fellows, which would, if it was correct, make you a wolf. (Captain Obvious strikes again!)
Also, I never suspected Nog. I made a point of ignoring him, so I wouldn't end up focusing on him instead of looking for wolves. (Which is what I ended up doing with SPM, so perhaps I ought to add him to my "ignore on Day 1" book, as well.)Right. That's theory ruined. :rolleyes: Though actually, making a point of ignoring someone in order not to end up focusing only on that said person would be a very neat way of avoiding saying anything specific about your fellow... Gah, I'll look into that once I have time. Now I'm really starving so I'm off to eat.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'd love to check what's between Roa and Nog,

Now I'm really curious, what exactly are you talking about?

Edit: crossed with Greenie

[Roa_Aoife]

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay? How exactly would it help the village? And can I at least wait until he's finished his dinner?:rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

Belly full then...

To quickly answer the other questions before delving into some actual work with this.


Why nor vote for Greenie as NwwrD1 doesn't clearly discard of her (like it does with Spm and Roa - making up the three I suspected yesterDay)?

Combine the facts that:
a) I tend to suspect her basically everytime and it made me waver if my suspicion (and the things I looked as suspicious with her posts & things with Spm) was merely feeling-based and not reasonable enough.
b) Her "retaliatory-vote" (vote someone who suspects you) felt so bad that it could have been just a "feel-bad" -factor of being voted for in that way.

Then you have my nausea in asking myself do I really vote right if I vote her - or do I do any good if I press for lynching her?

Spm, if you think I'm a wolf and base your view into my voting "the safe way", wouldn't I have been a lot safer voting for Greenie in the end? That would have been streamlined and argued for, and would have passed your scrutiny (looking at how you analyse the votes for being "good" or "bad"). And I think that with Greenie it would have been clear she would not have been lynched as I seemed to be basically the only one actually suspecting her, so safe indeed.


So applying the NwwrD1 and it's amendments (+case Greenie) I turned into the "quiet department".


Why of the rest McCaber then?

My posts in the end of Day1 (#124 & #127) should answer that question but let's make it in shorthand here as well...

With those who do not post anything "substantial" (however one defines it) one is forced to move with feelings and hunches as one can't make arguments from nothing.

Of those not bringing themselves forwards Lari and Lottie felt to me at the time like either non-interested ordos or people with RL hindrances.

Sally looked weird and suspiciously self-conscious - but also like Sally does usually. So a fifty-fifty feeling there.

McCaber was the one who looked calculated. He posted once and what he said was that he thought myself and Fea made sense / a good job. The wolves do not wish to have enemies, they wish to rub people the right way to make those others feel comfy (and I've been rubbed the right way a bit too many times by wolves to become suspicious of it everytime I see it). So both laying low and only letting out positive things... The result: no one thinks he should be lynched. Which was indeed the case - and seems to be at present as well. Ditto.


I hope that is enough. I'd rather do something else the rest of the time I have here toDay...

[Pitchwife]

Heeeeeeeeeeey actually I got an idea. Nog and Roa together?
:eek:The stuff of nightmares!:eek:

More seriously: SpM has a point about the wolves spreading their votes, which would speak against sally and Lari both being wolves, and the same (with reduced improbability, as there were more votes for Morsul to hide in) for Lottie and Fea.
As for Lottie, I've misjudged her before because she sometimes presents her points a little sketchily and wouldn't like to make that mistake again - she may have had better reasons for her vote than she committed to the keyboard, or maybe not. But I think both sally and Lari could do with some pressure toDay, and it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.
On the other hand there's still a possibility that SpM may be the cobbler trying to deflect suspicion from the bandwagoners.

More after supper.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.

While I'd love to post with reason
Having facts writ' down in prose
You must know it would be treason
If at the mods I thumbed my nose.
'Tis a Poe game and he rhymes,
Meaning proper imitation
Needs abundance of fell crimes
Or a rhythmic repitition.
That is not to say I'm evil
And am hiding in my verses.
Who would think me as the devil,
One who kills, and rends, and curses?
Lo! It's not that I don't want to give my thoughts away.
Frankly, I'm constrained by form for what I can say.

[A Little Green]

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay? How exactly would it help the village? And can I at least wait until he's finished his dinner?It wouldn't make me feel better nor help the village. That I got this idea that the two of you might be wolves together has nothing to do with wanting you to be wolves together. I'd be an idiot to want that (unless I was your fellow, of course)!
Her "retaliatory-vote" (vote someone who suspects you) felt so bad that it could have been just a "feel-bad" -factor of being voted for in that way.So the retaliatory move you talked about earlier meant a retaliatory vote? Ah. It's true that in practise my vote was a retaliatory vote. In theory it wasn't, though, since I didn't vote for you because you suspected me, but for other reasons. Those reasons I think I have stated quite a many times.

Fact is, I want to go to sleep but I need to vote first. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.


EDIT: x-ed with Fea

[The Saucepan Man]

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1etc

:D

Yes, Noggie, I fully understand and all that. But it does give you a good excuse to place a reasonably safe Day 1 vote. At the very least, you are somewhat absolving yourself of responsibility for the Day 1 lynch as it is generally pretty unlikely that your pick will end up being lynched. And I am still not sure that your reasons for picking McCaber stand up to full scrutiny.

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight?Well, this Pitchwolf feller might have wanted to get the Bear lynched in order to avoid the risk of him targetting a Wolf at Night. But I agree that it is not the strongest of points. :o

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay?Ooh, yes please. But can you wait while I get a big tub of popcorn ... ;)

But I think both sally and Lari could do with some pressure toDay, and it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.I agree, and I would particularly like to hear more from Lari and sally toDay, as I am currently leaning towards voting for one of them.

[A Little Green]

I'm debating between voting Nog (I fear I'm sticking too much to a Day 1 suspicion which is never wise) and voting some submarine, ie. McCaber, Sally, Lari or Loslote. Wish I'd had more time to look at people, there are so many I have no idea about! ToMorrow, though, will be a great deal better for me (in case I'm still alive).

I wonder if Fea is the cobbler. Then again, it would seem too obvious. And then again, I wouldn't put it past Fea.


EDIT: x-ed with Sauce

[Roa_Aoife]

Post 1- Nonsense post, presumably to tell us he wouldn't be around


Post 2- Will be around, but probably won't make it till dead-line. Says the were-bears best strategy is to kill off the wolves, says it serves the bear no benefit to work with the wolves, suggests that we set the wolves and the bear against each other.


Post 3- response to Pitch, explains again how the bear and the wolves will want to knock each other off, joins the chorus in admonishing Hakon.

(Overall, this may have been an attempt to later convince the village to let him live.)


Post 4- General analysis and response to first 55 posts:
First few posts are Junk, believes Mith started the first poster theory, finds Sauce's reserve "a-typical."

(SPM seems to have conveniently missed that when he reviewed Boromir's posts. But that's very slight.)

Slight suspicion of Inzil due to questioning about first poster theory, but it's very slight.

(Slight enough, I think, that it probably doesn't point to Inzil.)

Is most suspicious of Sally

(I think that this actually would point away from Sally, as it would be really obvious.)

Overall, thinks Sauce is innocent in the whole FW confusion

(While it's possible that a wolf SPM may have targeted Boro to point away from himself, I find this unlikely, as it seems you'd want to keep people who think you're innocent around.)

Doesn't understand the suspicion against Roa

(Thankyou. But seriously, if I draw a conclusion from this it would be silly.)

Finds Morsul the most suspicious in the FW discussion.

(Well we know how that turned out)



Post 5- response to Roa, insists the bear and the wolves are enemies


Post 6- response to Morsul: "Fair enough"


Post 7- response to Nogrod: says it's good to state the obvious


Post 8- clarification about Sally suspicion, not bothered by Pitch's vote, finds Morsul the most suspicious, bad feeling about Nogrod

(This seems to point to Nogrod, and away from Greenie. But with Greenie's insistence on lynch Nogrod, I have to wonder if it was planned that way.)

Post 9- read and comment:

Wilwa is ok.

(Pretty neutral in how this regards wilwa.)

Disagrees with Nog about Sauce being the Cobbler

(This doesn't say anything about Nog, really, though it points away from SPM. And again, that may have been the idea, but I find it unlikely.)

McCaber greyed out part of his post

(This niether points to or away from McCaber)

Changes his mind on Nog's suspicion of Greenie, now finds Greenie suspicious.

(So scratch what I said earlier. Now I wonder if Greenie and Nogrod are wolves together planning on using their usual tit-for-tat as a cover, and if one of them gets lynched, it makes the other look better.)


Post 10- Decides not to comment on Hakon since it's been commented on to death. Addresses SPM vs Roa:

Thinks SPM may be over-reacting when he accuses Roa and Nog of being agressive, Thinks SPM may not have been over-reacting to the rest- points out that it's Roa's style to push people hard

(Again, I really can't draw conclusions that anyone else would find credible here.)

Response to Nog- Doesn't think SPM was trying to buddy up to him

(Aside from disagreeing, this is a fairly neutral statement, so it doesn't point one way or the other.)


Post 11- points out Morsul's insistence on the statistical odds of SPM being a wolf.


Post 12- Explains Nogrod's vote for McCaber, but doesn't understand why he didn't vote for Greenie

(Again, this could point to either Nogrod or Greenie, and possibly both, in my opinion.)


Post 13- Considers voting Lari, but votes Morsul instead.

(This is really the only thing that points to Lari, and I'm not sure it's enough. Of the two Hakon voters, Sally seems to obvious, but that could be the idea. )

In general, I find Nogrod and Greenie the most suspicious based solely on this.


Edit: Crossed with a host

[Pitchwife]

'Tis a Poe game and he rhymes,
Meaning proper imitation
Needs abundance of fell crimes
Or a rhythmic repitition.
Ah, but Poe was a master of both poetry and prose, and capable of lucid argumentation as well (see Heureka, for example). Not that it's easy for a single person to emulate his accomplishment in all genres, of course...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Not that it's easy for a single person to emulate his accomplishment in all genres, of course...

Oh snap! I accept your challenge.

[Roa_Aoife]

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Fea is probably either the cobbler, or a wolf pretending to be the cobbler.

edit: crossed with pitch and Fea. Good, hopefully we'll get some sense out of you now.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh, and that was an analysis of Bearomir's posts. Sorry. :o

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Of course it's cute!

[A Little Green]

++ Sally

I said in my previous post why I don't want to vote Nog toDay. I want to go for a submarine. I ended up on Sally because she is maybe the most evil-looking of the submarines. Decide wisely, I'm off to bed.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't know if I like Greenie's vote for Sally. She's been on Nogrod for a while, but then votes Sally as an "evil-looking submarine" without explaining why she thinks Sally looks evil. Sally's also a very easy vote, because a lot of people are suggesting she's a wolf because of her vote for Hakon.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

During the course of this game, I found myself staring bleakly at the barren desktop through the fogged lens of the mental state in which I languished, contemplating with marginally bare enthusiasm the idea of the deadline which loomed before me. I thought of crows as I am fond of them, and the small torn animals which litter roadsides in winter seemed far more lonely than in summer: a consequence, certainly, of the frigid air deterring immediate disposal of them. These ignored and forgotten lives, abandoned and refrigerated into a costless memorandum of the promise of the brutal events of Night, nearly consoled me: at least they had died already. We who were left must suffer the absence of the dead, witness the decay of their memory, witness the slander of their words in the hands of those who would seek our destruction. O! happy to be dead.

Nearly, I say, but I was not entirely consoled, as I was a bare thirteen hours into a Day that would take some hours longer to complete, and long experience had taught me that villagers saved the most traumatizing discussions for times when the seconds tick ever closer to our mutually assured end. There is never any escape. There is never any variation.

Languidly I considered a large bird that circled something, drifting, spinning lazily on thermals. The shape of its silhouette and the manner in which its essence loomed convinced me it was a vulture. While eagles soar, vultures drift, and werewolf games contain vultures rather than eagles, opportunistic leering creatures satisfied by nothing but the ripping apart of the remains of the dead.

Eagles, those noble birds which kill quickly, for the sake of survival, hold no place in the Barrowdowns, where the dead rise again, and again, and again.

I had received a letter from a companion from whom I had not heard in many days; a letter which sought my presence in a tone much agitated. We had fallen somewhat out of touch, yet due to the mutually shared experiences of our educational youth - we attended an academy together, and shared many long nights sipping whisky and speaking of those long dead who had written tomes out of which we then studied, hoping to live up to the expectations of our forebears - I did not hesitate to respond.

Mira, sister of my youth and heart, I shall come as soon as arrangements can be made. I shall meet you at the House of Usher.

Yet swiftly following my arrival, my navigation of the green and gold tinted shadows which both guided me to and concealed my destination, I witnessed the most fantastical and horrifying demise of my companion, and of another friend - one equally dear to the heart - leaving me in a place which felt little short of haunted.

Though it would be unfair to say the haunting was that of ghosts; say rather that those who yet lived sought to lay many other guests alongside the fragile corpses in the crypt that now held my dearest (departed) compatriots. I could not turn but to find the suspicious eyes of others upon me, and it was little consolation to know they all wished the death of everyone: I supposed I should not take the matter personally, yet upon reflection of the events, it seemed as though one guest of the House in particular had become impatient with my atypical ways.

It would be brash, I supposed, to intentionally antagonize any given guest, particularly for an insult as petty as the one that had abused my vanity.

Of course I was cute.

It would be unhelpful at best, I thought, to waste time antagonizing such a guest...

But, I thought with unexpected malice, we cannot all be perfect.

[Nogrod]

Roa: Sorry, I just don't get your analysis on Boro...

Where are the deductions there from?

How are you making those points from Boro's posting? What kind of "theory of motivation" do you use there?

Boro is most suspicious of someone = points away from that person as one who'd kill him during the Night?
Boro suspected someone = that person would have killed him?
Boro "slightly" suspected someone = that person probably didn't go to kill him?
Boro considers voting for someone = maybe not enough to kill him?

Not only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

And how do you find me and Greenie being in cahoots, on the basis of what Boro said? How would his words be any authority on that, how would have his words related to anything asa he was a bear and knew nothing? Still you say your deductions are based "solely on this" ( = your analysis on what Boro said).

Are your werewolf -schemes getting better of your good sense and you were creating there a wannabe conspiracy-theory of three wolves and forgot that Boro was a Bear?

Or did I miss something?

[satansaloser2005]

*glances up, blinks*

Love Fea (or at least her Poe-try:p) think Saucie might be okay and am worried about Roa and possibly Nog. Pitch seems evil to me and Greenie just voted me for no reason, but people do that a lot so I'll leave it alone for now.

Just some thoughts. Sorry, but I ended up being a lot busier (and a lot sicker) than I intended today. I did warn you I'd be a submarine....


(In other news, I'll read through everything again when I get off work and offer commentary where I see fit/can manage. Then I'll go from there.)


EDIT: x'd with Nog and the Telltale Fea. I bloody love you.

[Pitchwife]

Now I wonder if Greenie and Nogrod are wolves together planning on using their usual tit-for-tat as a cover, and if one of them gets lynched, it makes the other look better.
I was about to ask whether Greenie would keep it up so consistently toDay in this case, but just noticed she's 1. backed off Nog for now and 2. adopted his principle of submarine hunting instead. The reason she gives for 1. sounds reasonable (not wanting to stick to Day 1 suspicions too much) - although, if she had good reasons to suspect him which haven't been invalidated since, why not stick with them? As for 2., I obviously can't find any fault with that, nor with her choice among the subs. (Yes, I remember I voted Boro because he claimed to find sally most suspicious of the subs. I still think neither her early morning jokes nor her vote would be highly suspicious as such, it's both together that worries me. And I'm not saying she's the most suspicious now, but one of four possible candidates.)

[Inziladun]

I don't know if I like Greenie's vote for Sally. She's been on Nogrod for a while, but then votes Sally as an "evil-looking submarine" without explaining why she thinks Sally looks evil. Sally's also a very easy vote, because a lot of people are suggesting she's a wolf because of her vote for Hakon.

It does look opportunistic, but the same could be said for many of yesterDay's votes. Confusing, to say the least.
Fea, Lari, and Loslote have been mostly in my thoughts toDay.
The reasons are obvious: the Hakon and Morsul voters still look to be the best bet for wolf-spotting.
Question is, who comes off looking the worst?
Fea tacked on the final nail for Morsul, and seemed a bit proud of it.
Lari brought the second vote for Hakon not long after Sally voted him. An ill innocent not having the time or inclination to look over things thoroughly, or an ill wolf jumping onto what looked to be a safe target?
Loslote looked very bad to me when she made the vote for Morsul. Her back-and-forth with him afterwards made her seem a little more innocent, though. I intend to look more closely at things later.

RoaNot only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

Do you have a theory on what that purpose might be?

x/d with Pitch, and Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa: Sorry, I just don't get your analysis on Boro...

Where are the deductions there from?

How are you making those points from Boro's posting? What kind of "theory of motivation" do you use there?

Boro is most suspicious of someone = points away from that person as one who'd kill him during the Night?
Boro suspected someone = that person would have killed him?
Boro "slightly" suspected someone = that person probably didn't go to kill him?
Boro considers voting for someone = maybe not enough to kill him?

Not only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

And how do you find me and Greenie being in cahoots, on the basis of what Boro said? How would his words be any authority on that, how would have his words related to anything asa he was a bear and knew nothing? Still you say your deductions are based "solely on this" ( = your analysis on what Boro said).

Are your werewolf -schemes getting better of your good sense and you were creating there a wannabe conspiracy-theory of three wolves and forgot that Boro was a Bear?

Or did I miss something?

Allow me to explain: I'm looking at it from the perspective of the wolves not knowing that Boro was the bear. If they did figure it out, then discussing his death is rather pointless, but we have know way of knowing if they did.

I don't think a wolf would kill someone who blatantly found them to be the most suspicious, as it would quite obviously point to them. I do think that a wolf might kill someone with the goal of making someone else look bad. That's why I initially thought Greenie-wolf may have killed Boromir to make you look bad. But then Boromir did a 180 on the whole thing, suspecting Greenie and not you.

And then I remembered what Greenie said, about a connection between you and me, and I thought about why she would say that when I just ignored you. And then it occurred to me that she may be trying to cover up her own tracks in doing just that. It really would be a perfect cover- one of you always suspects the other, anyways, so no one would find that out of the ordinary. And if one of you got lynched, the other would automatically look good. She fell into the easy vote of voting for you, and you built a suspicion of her and then backed down. It seems rather perfect wolf-on-wolf to me.

As for the rest, I tried to put myself in the position of the wolves, thinking on each person in perspective: a slight suspicion may not be worth killing over. A suspicion that wasn't exactly slight, but wasn't the strongest? Well, that has the potential to be dangerous and grown into the strongest suspicion.

I may be over-thinking it. Boro wasn't shy about discussing the bear, so it's possible the wolves picked him out. Or maybe the wolves just wanted to get rid of a strong player that could be a threat to them later. The point is that we don't know, so we have to continue to look at all the possibilities. This alone wouldn't be enough to lynch anyone, which is why I emphasized the "based solely on this" part.

Edit: Crossed with Pitch and Inzil.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, of course it's purpose oriented. My purpose is to find out why the wolves killed Boro.

[Nogrod]

Do you want to see my "I don't like..." list?

Well, wish it or not, here it comes.

I don't like the way Greenie plays on D1 nor on D2. That vote for me felt just malice-driven then. She knows how I play but didn't give any good explanation for her vote; toDay she continued repeating some off-the-mark things on me and said she would like to make a few questions on me to judge me better (which she never did, so trying to look good only?) - but she didn't make a single notice on what I answered her (and others) on those initial suggestions. On the contrary she acted like I had said nothing to answer her doubts and only dismissed voting me on the grounds that it's not too good to stick with D1 suspicions only. And I can see a scenario where she didn't want to vote me again for the reason that I might actully focus my attention to her this time for good - and now with some reasons backing my possible vote which some others might follow.

I don't like the way Fea keeps herself over and above the actual debate. The poems and the "novellettes" are fine and entertaining but the substance is greatly lacking. I might vote her just for the frustration, but her vote yesterDay was actually quite suspicious. Many of you have said you wouldn't "put it past Fea" to make such an openly gay nailing vote on an innocent. I would say I would be surprised if she would have handled the situation differently were she a wolf...

I don't like the ever larger compartment of submarines we have around. Whatever Sally's role is, her last post is indicative of the situation... She managed to mention a handful of people: one who stood out because of poetry, another because of voting for her and four because they have been the most vocal... So there the submarines will keep diving under any radar... :(

I don't like some bandwagonish / easy-going votes from yesterDay and the subsequent silence toDay, mainly Lottie, Sally and Lari...

I don't like McCaber's calculative submarine-approach.

[Roa_Aoife]

I agree with you about Fea, Nogrod. She hasn't been helpful at all, and I would say she's basically not even playing.

Right now, I am seriously considering voting for Fea. My other choice at the moment is Greenie. Her comment about me and Nogrod was forced, and her vote for Sally is too easy, and lacking in any actual reasons.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I don't like the way Fea keeps herself over and above the actual debate.

Why should I interject? You're all doing a wonderful job for me. I'd just get in the way... :Merisu:

To summarize the thoughts de ustedes, which extrapolate on my thoughts:

Borangutan clearly thought one or both of two things: Hakon was the seer, or Hakon was an easy target because everyone was irked that he wouldn't shut his gob about meta.

The more interesting question is why the wolves picked Borangutan, and my guess is that they were thinking one or both of two things: Borangutan was Were-ape (as evidenced by Hakon's commentary), or Borangutan was an easy target.

As far as wolves would be concerned on a Night 2 kill, it doesn't really matter who dies, since everybody's got to go.

The wolves' greatest enemies would be, respectively, the Bear and the Seer. Yes, the Seer can identify, and that's bad, but the Bear can kill somebody each night, and that includes wolves. Wolves have enough worry during the day keeping their pack alive. Add to that the threat of random death at night?

And don't tell me the wolves aren't threatened by a Werebear. The Bear's greatest threat is the wolfpack. It's fairly easy to stay under the radar during the day, whereas at Night, you don't have any say in what happens to you. Yes, the Bear wants people to die at a rapid pace, but as long as one Wolf is alive, you get two kills per Night. The Bear can't win without killing the Wolves, and multiple Wolves (obviously) outnumbers one Bear. It's in the Bear's best interest to kill wolves early so that when it's down to the wire, the Bear is the only one making night kills.

That being said, the Bear is the wolves' great threat because the logical behavior of the Bear is to start sniping wolves.

Therefore if the wolves thought Hakon had found Borangutan, they'd want to kill him while they had the chance, before one of them died.

Therefore, Hakon died either because he was too damned obvious, or too damned annoying, and Boro died either because Hakon was too damned obvious, or the wolves wanted a trail-less kill. Conversation over, and since following the lead of the Seer doesn't really lead back to the wolves so much as it shows that they're paying attention, let's look to the future.

The Ranger can no longer guard two Nights in a row, and there is nobody that stands out right now in terms of needing to be guarded, since most of the 'important' players peaced out already. Without the Hunter and the Seer, the Ranger is left to protect innocents. All of whom seem just about as innocent as the wolves. So I'm viewing tonight as a crapshoot in terms of protection/killing. Odds are in the wolves' favor of getting who they want, and odds are equally in the Ranger's favor of protecting who they pick. Summarized: it's unlikely the Ranger and the Wolves will go after the same person, so most likely somebody's going to die toNight.

The Lovers have not really been discussed, which I think is an unfortunate oversight given the fact that by their very definition they don't care if the village wins, only if they win. Also, it should be born in mind that there are currently two players in constant Daily communication. The question to ask is if the Lovers have the village's best interest at heart.

And then there's the Cobbler. Who obviously doesn't have the village's best interest at heart, and could be anybody, but based on the number of people (self included) drawing the attention of the crowd, it's probably somebody playing reindeer games until they're needed.

My theory: as a village, we should concentrate on two groups:

1) those who appear to be working together

2) those who appear to be invisible

I agree with you about Fea, Nogrod. She hasn't been helpful at all, and I would say she's basically not even playing.

Wrong. I'm just not playing the way you think I should be. And when you're the mod, your opinion will matter.

[Pitchwife]

Greenie's stated reason for voting Nog yesterDay, other than retaliating, was 'because he makes weak reasons sound big'. Going through his early posts yesterDay (before she first said this) I could find only two points to which she may have referred, other than his suspecting her to be the Bear:
1. his case for SpM being the cobbler, which was chiefly based on the FWI discussion and relied on SpM rather misinterpreting the narration on purpose than being genuinely confused;
2. his suspicion (backed by linguistic nitpicking) that Roa had only pretended to be confused about the number of wolves. Looked overblown to me at the time, but likely a language problem.
Note that he used 1. to corroborate the Greenie=Bear hypothesis:
It was just an hour before Spm had made his own version of this "heh, you got me" -stuff and now Greenie was responding? It does look like a cobbler / wolf / bear -probing to me.
This seems a bit stretched. Given that Bear and Wolves are natural competitors, would a Bear really want to signal to the Wolves, or the cobbler?
And that's about it. Grasping at straws? Maybe, but on purpose and with malevolent intent?

[Nogrod]

To supply you with my "I'm uneasy with..." list as well.

I'm uneasy with Roa who behaves too civilly towards me. Her explanation on her "Borolysis" made sense but I'd presume she would be able to come up with one if forced to do it...

I'm uneasy with Spm as I see him grasping at straws at times and being so very reasonable at others (and I mean it - he can be very reasonable & reasoned indeed). Also his change of style is remarkable: from the early game (and I don't mean only the "banter phase") confusion-monger and wannabe-contactor he has turned back into a decent and reasonable player; after he was suspected of being the cobbler by enough many players and as the bear died. Although I'm not sure he is a wolf, but a cobbler maybe? (I have still not forgotten that possible Greenie - Spm link possibility which they have nicely turned into a chatter toDay)

I'm uneasy with Pitchie because he seems soo reasonable and uncontroversial. You have just enough initiative that no one can say you just follow others but you are also very careful not to arouse any suspicion.

I'm uneasy with Brinn and wilwa, both of whom I know can be real killers when needed but have been quite quiet so far.


Well, a familiar position: I distrust you all. If I'd have to name one innocentish person it would be Nerwen.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nice to see you involved, Fea.

I think the lovers haven't been discussed for an obvious reason: we don't have to kill them to win, and they really pose very little threat to us. If one of them dies, the other gets a free kill, but that's a big if. Their best bet is to play on the villages side.

So are you saying that it really doesn't matter what Boromir thought, since he was probably just a safe kill, if not killed for being the bear?

Then who do you think is suspicious?

And maybe we don't have a problem with your style, dear, but I for one resent doing all the work while you sit back and benefit from it.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

And maybe we don't have a problem with your style, dear, but I for one resent doing all the work while you sit back and benefit from it.

Clearly you aren't a proponent of socialism.

[Nogrod]

Looking soo much better Fea - well not as poetical, but anyway. :)

Although I must say it's not too particular... :p

And your view of socialism is just weird. :D


Greenie's stated reason for voting Nog yesterDay, other than retaliating, was 'because he makes weak reasons sound big'. Going through his early posts yesterDay (before she first said this) I could find only two points to which she may have referred, other than his suspecting her to be the BearI hoped I wouldn't have to come back to this anymore but it seems I have to as you brought it up once again and I'm going to sleep soon.

I think I said it yesterDay already that I had read the thread up to a point (5PM my time or something) and three people had roused my attention: Greenie, Spm and Roa - that far. Then coming home I looked at their posting with the eye of "if they were baddies how would you explain these posts"? And as you all know I ended up with the decision none was a case good enough to vote for them on D1.

If everyone did that on Day1 (really tried to look for the baddies laying points on them) the Day1's would be real opportunities to lynch a wolf instead of easy hunker-down bandwagons that seem to hit gifteds and innocents more often than the wolves (because the wolves know who to vote). It's pretty frustrating to be the only one (well, one of the few) to actually try something on D1 and get load of X from that.

Or maybe people have different standards on what makes a "big case" or a "well-reasoned suspicion"? To me those I made yesterDay were not ones of that category, but something worth mentioning as I couldn't be sure I'm alive toDay to voice those suspicions - however inconclusive they are as they are only D1 suspicions.


Okay. Needs to check the Mead Hall and process my vote in my head meanwhile...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Before my last post becomes a problem (if in fact it does), I'd like to apologize for any offense it might cause. It's intended as a joke, relating to the way Roa phrased her last comment, not as a slight on anybody's political leanings.

That being said, expecting people not to be opportunists in terms of letting a few people do all the talking and/or analysis is silly. More than half the players sit back and let other people do the hard work.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

And your view of socialism is just weird. :D

Actually, I'm totally into it. But I shouldn't have mentioned it, since there's the risk that a comment that could be made with a wink and a cheeky grin at a cocktail party won't carry the same connotations that a blithe written remark can.

[McCaber]

So I did some thinking on Hakon's posts, and I managed to come up with just about what Fea said: that he dropped one too many seer hints and Boro decided to take the potential risk of suspicion there.

And as for Boro, I think he was probably just a no-trace kill.

[Nogrod]

I shouldn't have mentioned it, since there's the risk that a comment that could be made with a wink and a cheeky grin at a cocktail party won't carry the same connotations that a blithe written remark can.Don't you worry. The :D comes near enough...

[Pitchwife]

So, Fea, you've finally pastiched your way through the poems and tales to Heureka. I'm duly impressed. Nice analysis of the situation. Now what about applying it?
My theory: as a village, we should concentrate on two groups:
1) those who appear to be working together
2) those who appear to be invisible
I think we all have an idea who falls under 2). What about 1)? Who do you think looks like they're working together?

[McCaber]

And once more I'm out of time.

++Nogrod

for voting me for rather spurious reasons yesterDay.

[Roa_Aoife]

Not a huge fan of it, no. I like capitalism. :p (Or at least the ideal form of it.)

Ah! McCaber you startled me, jumping in and out so quickly like that. I don't see how Boro could be traceless- he had far too many opinions and suspicions for that. You would have been a no trace kill, as would have Wilwa, or Lari, or Sally, or any of the other submarines.

A no trace kill would have been very easy in this game, and it's practically SOP for wolves on Night 2. But that's not what the wolves did and I think there must be a reason for it.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Perhaps it's more accurate to say that Boro could have been a no-accurate-trail kill. You can pick a reindeer and have no trail at all ("How can we know who killed her when she only posted once, to say hello!?") or you can pick somebody knowing that there are false trails people will think they've picked up.

It's the difference between no trail and a set-up kill, but on a Night 2 when wolves don't have anything better to do? Like you said, Roa, it's practically SOP for wolves to just pick someone that doesn't mean anything.

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, then, Fea, who do you suspect?

[Pitchwife]

Nog, in answer to your #231:
I went back through your posts in order to find out for myself what Greenie was actually talking about and whether she had a point or not. Conclusion: I can see where she was coming from, but her voting you because you exaggerated what she thought weak reasons for suspicion (but as you say, and as I said, it was Day 1, hence the '?' at the end of my post) seems somewhat exaggerated as well.
Now what do I think of the two of you? I don't quite share your strong suspicion of Greenie, but I still remember she fooled me to the end two games ago, so I'm wary. And I don't find you that suspicious either, but I haven't yet played with you when you were a wolf, so I'm wary I might overlook the signs.
Darn, being too uncontroversial again...:(

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Brinn
Lari
Loslote
sally
wilwa

And while I know the odds of all four wolves and the cobbler being amongst the laryngitic are slim to none, I don't doubt at least two of the bad guys are in this group.

While I mentioned midafternoon that I was either going to vote for Hakon for meta-reasoning regardless of everybody swearing up and down that he needed to stop, or for Morsul for apparently intentionally bad logic (and then carried through with what I was pretty sure was Morsul being intentionally misleading), Lottie seemed particularly opportunistic about it.

And I have a bad feeling about Cabbie, but nothing to support it.

[Pitchwife]

++Nogrod
for voting me for rather spurious reasons yesterDay.
And you think this is any better?

[Inziladun]

And you think this is any better?

I second that. Not looking good at the moment, Cab.

After snapping out of poet mode (which I did enjoy), Fea appears and starts speaking plainly.
So, your main suspects are Brinn, Lari, Lottie, Sally, and Wilwa? All have notable submarine tendancies, to be sure. Lari and Sally have stated they are ill. Then again, so is Roa apparently, and I'm actually not feeling 100% myself. So that in itself could be a factor, I guess, but I don't think we can afford to give them a pass based upon it at this point.
Lari's vote for Hakon still looks to me worse than Sally's, but both were ultra-safe, since so many had already expressed a desire to lynch him.

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, of the Morsul voters, Fea looks more suspicious to me than Loslote. But that's iffy, either way, and now that's she's participating, I'd rather leave her for now.
I'm not so sure about the lack of trail from Boro. It seems an easy thing to claim, especially if one of your fellow wolves is being pointed at. The, "Shh, don't look here," idea looks very much like trying to divert attention. However, this is rather circumstantial.

Of the Hakon voters, I can't really call it. If I hadn't been so suspicious of SPM, I may have voted him too.

I don't like Greenie's vote- it looks very out of nowhere to me. So does McCaber's, but he hasn't been around that much and he seems pressed for time. If Greenie is afraid of being too focused on Nogrod, she ought to try to analyze someone else, not just pick a submarine seemingly at random.

Since I really have to finish this paper, I need to sign out now.

++Greenie

[Nogrod]

Oh my...

You're making my life very hard McCaber. I had been thinking about voting for Greenie, or maybe Lari or Lottie.

You really tease me... what is my reaction to your vote about: retaliation or just an even more substantial suspicion, feeling bad or feeling being right with my initial suspicions in the first place... I have been suspecting you all the time and you vote for me for voting you on "flimsy reasons" yesterDay - like Pitchie said with doing more or less the same yourself. Well not exactly: you're doing worse actually for saying my reasons to vote for you were just "flimsy", which is far less substantial than what I suspected you on yesterDay... or toDay.

And you seem to vote solely on yeasterDay's basis? What do you think of toDay? Didn't any of the things happening last Night or toDay make you reconsider?

Okay, you may not be responding and I have a bad feeling you haven't been reading the thread in the first place (shame on you if it's true).

I need to reconsider my vote for a minute...

[Pitchwife]

So Lari and sally are ill (I wasn't aware of that, explains the can't-be-bothered attitude), and wilwa has said she's busy and might even have to drop out; Zil is right we shouldn't give them the pass because of that, but I don't really like voting any of them under these circumstances, either - at least not toDay.
Of the quiet ones, Brinn has actually posted most and made the most sense, so I'd like to keep her around for now.
Between the remaining subs, Lottie and McCaber, Cab looks worse at the moment after his out-of-the-blue vote - Lottie at least made some more attempt to explain her vote yesterDay.
The rest:
SpM looks better toDay - cobbler at the very worst, but quite possibly innocent.
Roa - Greenie said she's too good to be true (which makes me wonder about her vote for Greenie), which in a way I can understand, but no furry vibes from her.
Greenie/Nog - not 100 % sure of either of them, but don't suspect either enough to vote.
Zil and Nerwen have both been very reasonable, and no furry emissions from either.
Fea - worries me. First avoids taking any tangible position, then, when pressed for suspects, names only submarines who have been suspected before. Possible candidate for a vote.
Vote to come after a little more mulling over.

[The Saucepan Man]

First few posts are Junk, believes Mith started the first poster theory, finds Sauce's reserve "a-typical."

(SPM seems to have conveniently missed that when he reviewed Boromir's posts. But that's very slight.)

Actually, I didn't - it's in my notes. :D But I didn't think it worth mentioning because I thought it pretty inconsequential and in any event contrary to his other thoughts on me. I thought much the same about his comments on Inzil and one or two others. I focussed only on those things that I thought may possibly have provoked a Wolf kill. And I still disagree with you on this point. After Morsul, his main suspect was sally. With Morsul dead, he was likely to focus more on her toDay had he survived. And he explicitly stated that he was tempted to vote for Lari and that he would be looking more closely at her toDay. If anyone wanted to kill him because of something he said, then those two are the most likely in my view. But, as I said, I don't think that it's the strongest piece of evidence against either of them, quite apart from the fact that he may just have been killed because the Wolves spotted him as the Bear.

I agree that he was (contrary to McCaber's assertion) most certainly not a trailless kill. But I can see some merit in Fea's suggestion that he may have been killed because the trail was confusing or potentially misdirecting.

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Well, I thought it cute. :D But I agree that it wasn't helpful. Happily, she has made rather more substantive contributions since.

Now, I hate to agree with what appears to be emerging as a concensus among the chatterati here, but I do rather agree that neither Greenie nor McCaber have done themselves any favours toDay. Greenie looks suspicious for backing away from her suspicion of Nog and for voting for sally after some suspicion had been voiced about her (including a suggestion by me that I might vote for her). And McCaber's vote for Noggie is another one of those 'out of the blue' votes that's as flimsily reasoned as he suggests Nog's vote was yeterDay. Actually, it's worse. And I am not sure that I like his suggestion that Boro was a no-track kill, when it clearly wasn't. It makes me wonder whether there might be something to look for in the trail after all.

I am still toying with the idea of voting for either Lari or sally, on the basis of yesterDay's Hakon vote. But Lari has not appeared toDay and sally has said little of consequence. So there is nothing more to go on toDay for either of them. Which may, I suppose, be a reason in itself to vote for one of them. But, if I do, which one?

Also, am I missing something or has Nerwen still not explained why she didn't vote yesterDay?

[Nogrod]

This is in hindsight to be sure, but anyway. I probably could have said this yesterDay already (actually I think I did say people voting for Hakon or Morsul are "safe-voters"), but it's so much easier now.

But it was as easy to the wolves who know who are not among them already yesterDay...

So people voting for Hakon or Morsul I think were ones that wished to stay out of the fray as they were clearly the "easy lynches": the one being annoyed by everyone with his meta-reasonings and the other of his awkwardness.

But they both have been succesful in what they do in the earlier games. It's only their way of playing that clearly makes people think they're easy to vote. As they both turned out gifteds (well, innocents anyway) I can't help feeling those who have played with them lately and being lupine now would have wished to do away with them with both of these reasons.


So Morsul was voted by:

Spm - I would have thought he would have made a smarter decision in the beginning but going on the odd one (hindsight, yes, but really Spm?). The wolves seldom are that out in the open even if Morsul had been one in the last game: you just can't make your vote based on that Spm! You should know it, so why?
Loslote - suspiciously placed vote, but less suspicious than Spm's (who still would be the cobbler I think).
Hakon - the seer but clearly one who doesn't read too much - or doesn't write out what he reads...
Boro - Bear, so out for an easy lunch? Probably so.
Fea - an artsy kill suitable to her persona. Could be whatever... I mean that is a real 50-50. It's not only "I wouldn't put it past her" but it would also be "she would do just that". The only problem is what is the motive behind what she did?


The only thing about the Hakon voters I think is worthwhile mentioning (that I think has not been noted before and might bear some wittness) is the following.

Hakon was greatly disliked on D1 - for a reason. But it is interesting that he was voted in concerto by Sally and Lari one after another - in a situation where Morsul had three votes and Spm had two.

Now are they two innocents who just looked at Morsul as being just his odd self and thought Spm innocent - and thus went on Hakon who had been disliked by many.

Or were they (one of them) thinking they could override the Spm wagon by voting Hakon who was so much disliked while believing the Morsul-wagon was too easy or not-backed by the late-voters?

As Morsul was not a wolf, the two had no reason to not let him get lynched (were they wolves / either of them being one). But picking another similar-kind of subject is an interesting choice indeed... did they (one of them) foresee Morsul was getting lynched and thus they thought it better to vote for someone else not to be involved in the bandwagon?

Or did they wish to leave open the chance Spm would be lynched - or not take part in lynching of either Morsul or Spm they both (one of them) knew was innocent?

I'm not sure I can follow my own logic anymore... or whether I should be able to put it into a more simple form...

And it's late. Voting time in a second...

[Nogrod]

Okay... Greenie, McCaber, Lari or Sally I think will be my choices toDay.

Just who?

There are so different reasons to vote for anyone of them...