WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Kitanna]

In the winter of 2911 the snows fell heavy and they fell frequently. A great white blanket covered the Shire. Hobbits of Bridgefields of the Eastfarthing, huddled inside, avoiding the frigid air, and the bitter wind. They had survived winters like this before, they would survive again.

First the food began to run out. Frustrated and hungry tensions ran high. Threats were made and friendships ruined. But they were resolved to survive. Attempting to work together the Hobbits rationed their food to last out the winter, while sending for help.

Then the Brandywine froze. The wolves began sniffing around. Seeing this as an opportunity to ensure their survival three Hobbits struck a deal with the wolves. They sacrifice a fellow village every night and their own families stay safe. This was an easy road to survival.

Do not post here yet

[Kitanna]

Kitanna grumbled to herself. Waking up in the middle of the night was bad enough. Waking up in the middle of a cold winter's night was even worse. She pulled the blankets over her head and tried to muffle the sounds from outside with a pillow. Who would dream of being out so late? And in this frigid air.

When the hurried whispers outside did not cease Kitanna angrily kicked off the blankets and wrabbed herself in a furlined cloak. She grabbed an umbrella from next to the door. She'd show those good-for-nothings a thing or two about waking someone up in the middle of the night.

She flung the door open, pausing when she caught wind of the conversation. “We had a deal, now come on, Kit's asleep, there's no better time.”

“What if she wakes up?”

“What if indeed!” Kitanna cried brandishing her umbrella. “What are you three up to?” No answer was forth coming. “Come now! Get your butts on home and go to bed!”

One of the night whisperers came up to Kit, hands behind his back. In one quick motion Kitanna felt the pang of defeat. The whisperer dropped his frying pan into the snow, they could come back for it later. “Let's throw her body onto the Brandywine. The wolves are waiting.”

~*~*~

The village was gathered in Inzil's tavern. They'd continue deliberating about the food shortage. Kitanna and Aganzir still hadn't arrived. Everyone was getting impatient.

“We should just start without them!” Nogrod folded his arms across his chest. His foul mood worsened with each passing minute.

“Give them another minute,” Nerwen said. “Kit's always late and I'm sure Aganzir is with her.”

The door to the tavern opened. A snow covered Agan came in. She dropped a bloody cloak onto the nearest table. “We have a problem. The wolves got to Kitanna.”

“How?” Kath nearly jumped from her seat in a panic. Her hands twisting nervously. “We've kept a close watch on the borders. Nothing has gotten through!”

“Well she wouldn't have just wandered out after dark to be attacked.” Shasta snapped. “Someone would have had to drag her out!”

“You fiends!” Glirdan yelled. “Selfish fiends. You got rid of Kit so you could have more food for yourself!”

The fingers were pointed, the accusations thrown. Some Hobbits were dragging their neighbors into the cold and letting the wolves take them.

Day 1 Begins

The Dead
Kitanna – Umbrella wielder

The Living
Shasta - Village Chandler
Menel - Traveling Salesman
Glirdan - Traveling Thespian
G55 - Little Red Riding Hood
Nerwen - Maid at Inzil's
Legate - Local Bard
Pitchwife - Village Shopkeep
Nogrod - Retired Barkeep
Lommy – Local Cooper
Inzil - Village Barkeep
Aganzir - Herbalist
Sally - Town Bicycle
Kath - Woodsmith with the gammy leg

[Galadriel55]

*points fingers* *throws accusations* Who killed Kit? :mad: *gives everyone a harsh stare*

No ridiculous suspicion list from me this time.

But I still have the first post!

[Inziladun]

No Hobbit has ever killed another on purpose before! What have we come to!

If you murderers are that savage already, you ought to get on out in the cold with your wolf friends!

There. End obligatory IC. ;)

[Pitchwife]

O tempora, o mores! Only a few days ago a couple of urchins tried to steal my golden dragon claw right from the counter - meaning to sell it for food, no doubt. (Granted, it's really just a cockerel's foot with some gold paint, but still, it makes a nice decoration.) And now this! That any hobbit should sink so low as to make common cause with murdering beasts... [etc.etc., insert verbose IC lament which I won't bore you by typing out]

* * *

With that out of the way, who of us three is most likely to be a wolf? Gal55 for ostentatious hard stares and furious smiley, so furious about Kit's death that she couldn't possibly have had a hand in it? Zil for self-consciously lampshading his IC post (which wasn't even terribly IC)? Me for inventing silly points against the other two (and being a hypocrite to boot)? Discuss.

[Galadriel55]

With that out of the way, who of us three is most likely to be a wolf?

All? :p

[Galadriel55]

Well, there was very little activity here so far. I got to go write an exam, but I'll be back in a few hours. I hope more people show up!

[Thinlómien]

Hiya all. Pitch, I suggest adding me to your suspicion list, for making the obligatory "sorry Day1 will be crappy for me but I'll be around more on Day2" post. In other words, I was pretty ill all weekend and I still don't feel at my sharpest right now (plus I might still have guests coming to entertain me) so I'm not sure how much I will be around this evening, and during the latter half of the day I will be sleeping and at work... Keeping an eye on the thread.

edit: apparently xed with Gal

[Meneltarmacil]

Oh dear, if I'd known this would have happened, I'd have returned to Bree-land at once. Now I'm stuck in a tavern in an unfamiliar town with people bent on lynching anyone who looks vaguely suspicious.

In any case, I suggest that if we have had no luck for the next few days and innocents die instead of wolves, we look at those who have been pushing them to their deaths. The most dangerous werewolf is an influential one, after all.

Also, would anyone care to buy a magic amulet that scares off werewolves*? It's only 10 shiremarks and works like a charm.

*conveniently unmentioned note: may not really be magic, use at own risk

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Thirteen hobbits on the wall,
who's the wolf among them all,
gotta catch 'em all.

(/end of obligatory IC)

***

I must unfortunately second Lommy, since toDay will be even worse for me. I have two exams right after each other tomorrow, and they are right before the DL (or almost. If I am right in counting the clock and the DL is 2 PM my time, then I should be able to appear just before it, but I probably won't be able to proofread the whole thread - or, depending on its size). Anyway, even in general because of this I don't know how much I will be around toDay, I'll probably pop in still in a couple of hours, but then nothing for a long time until DL. In other words, my performance toDay will be close to zero, but better than nothing, I guess.

So far, there's probably nothing much to react to, but I guess there is still time. If I was supposed to call anything suspicious, then it's the low to no-content from Zil and Pitch, being the players they are, I'd have maybe expected the two of them to be more... hmm... serious. But there's hardly anything much more this far.

EDIT: x-ed with Menel.

[Kath]

Ok prior warning - I'll be voting very early! Like about half the Day early. So if for any reason I've not voted by 11pm I'm very unlikely to turn back up.

Can we boost discussion toDay a bit somehow? Perhaps some conversation about the roles? This cobbler role is really interesting and I missed some of the discussion on it. If the cobbler chooses the Seer or the Ranger and thus disrupts their role - presumably the narration is going to say that the Seer didn't dream or the Ranger didn't protect. Will it be clear that this is due to the Cobbler - meaning the Cobbler will know the role of the person they picked?

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
Pitchwife - Fake golden dragon claw on the counter? I can't see a way this does not scream "Get your fancy footwear from me!" Aaand he's 'a hypocrite to boot'!
Legate - Six lines about his incapacity to post, three about the concerning lack of seriousness on Pitch and Zilly's part.
Inzil - two lines of 'obligatory IC'. Why is IC obligatory? He's a conformist and tries to avoid suspicion by behaving in a way you 'should' behave.
Kath - Ooh Kath wants to talk about the cobbler! There's a girl to my liking. I don't think it will be said in the narration though, I think the cobbler will only be notified she hit a gifted. However, who would have a reason to be so interested in the cobbler?
G55 - stares. 'Tis rude.

INNOCENT

EITHER
Lommy - sick person.
Menel - I came up with lots of things to say. They all sounded silly so I deleted them and won't say anything yet.
Shasta
Glirdan
Nerwen
Nog
sally

My my it feels good to be playing again. :cool:

Also, I have chamomile and heather to help you sleep. Mint and maté and ginger if you need an energizer. Medicinal mushrooms for vivid dreams. Wolfberries, herbal compounds and teas. All purchases will be handled with the strictest confidence. Get yours today.

[Pitchwife]

In any case, I suggest that if we have had no luck for the next few days and innocents die instead of wolves, we look at those who have been pushing them to their deaths. The most dangerous werewolf is an influential one, after all.

This is kind of obvious - actually, a little too obvious for my taste. Or should it be read as "Hear me, packmates, and keep a low profile while we help the loudmouths lynch each other"?


Pitchwife - Fake golden dragon claw on the counter? I can't see a way this does not scream "Get your fancy footwear from me!" Aaand he's 'a hypocrite to boot'!
Actually, what it does scream is "gratuitous Skyrim reference"; but your reading almost makes me wish I were the cobbler and had thought of such a hint.

Kath - Ooh Kath wants to talk about the cobbler! There's a girl to my liking. I don't think it will be said in the narration though, I think the cobbler will only be notified she hit a gifted. However, who would have a reason to be so interested in the cobbler?
Agreed about the narration, it's bad enough that the cobbler finds out that his pick is gifted without the narration pointing out the exact role. But I don't think the cobbler xyrself would be so interested in the matter to speculate about it on the thread, if that's what you were insinuating- I suppose xe'd rather clear up the technicalities of xyr role with Modanna behind the scenes.

Wolfberries
Hear hear!

[Meneltarmacil]

This is kind of obvious - actually, a little too obvious for my taste. Or should it be read as "Hear me, packmates, and keep a low profile while we help the loudmouths lynch each other"?

I'm no wolf, nor do I help them. The wolves involved in these lynchings need not be particularly loud, nor is every innocent lynched only by wolves.

However, even if innocents are lynching innocents, you can bet that there will be at least one wolf making sure his fellows aren't going to the noose. Whether he is making the major arguments himself or merely reinforcing those made by the gullible, I still expect a wolf or two to be involved when multiple innocents are lynched in a row.

[Aganzir]

Actually, what it does scream is "gratuitous Skyrim reference"; but your reading almost makes me wish I were the cobbler and had thought of such a hint.
Psh. Never played Skyrim.

But I don't think the cobbler xyrself would be so interested in the matter to speculate about it on the thread, if that's what you were insinuating- I suppose xe'd rather clear up the technicalities of xyr role with Modanna behind the scenes.
Nopes and that's not what I thought. Rather, it would be in the wolves' interest to bring attention to the cobbler. Now it's me who's a hypocrite to boot though, considering my eternal love for discussing the cobbler's role and tactics. ;) But I'm still allowed to accuse everyone else who does it.

Hear hear!
I hear they're nutritious. Regular consumption will make you fit enough to fight wolves single-handedly. Would you like to try some?

[Inziladun]

Can we boost discussion toDay a bit somehow? Perhaps some conversation about the roles? This cobbler role is really interesting and I missed some of the discussion on it. If the cobbler chooses the Seer or the Ranger and thus disrupts their role - presumably the narration is going to say that the Seer didn't dream or the Ranger didn't protect. Will it be clear that this is due to the Cobbler - meaning the Cobbler will know the role of the person they picked?

Elaboration on how the narrative will reflect a block would indeed be useful. I'd also like to add that with the Cobbler's extra abilities this go around, there ought not to be anyone saying something "Leave X be; just a Cobbler".

This is kind of obvious - actually, a little too obvious for my taste. Or should it be read as "Hear me, packmates, and keep a low profile while we help the loudmouths lynch each other"?

Meh, I don't see that. Though I've never played with Menel before, I know I've made similar statements as an innocent many times (and been suspected, naturally :rolleyes:).

At least Pitch is vocal. That's useful.

Agreed about the narration, it's bad enough that the cobbler finds out that his pick is gifted without the narration pointing out the exact role. But I don't think the cobbler xyrself would be so interested in the matter to speculate about it on the thread, if that's what you were insinuating- I suppose xe'd rather clear up the technicalities of xyr role with Modanna behind the scenes.

Unless the Cobbler has it in xyr mind to hint to the wolves. After all, xe still has to avoid Night-kill.

x/d with Menel and Agan

[Pitchwife]

I'm no wolf, nor do I help them. The wolves involved in these lynchings need not be particularly loud, nor is every innocent lynched only by wolves.

However, even if innocents are lynching innocents, you can bet that there will be at least one wolf making sure his fellows aren't going to the noose. Whether he is making the major arguments himself or merely reinforcing those made by the gullible, I still expect a wolf or two to be involved when multiple innocents are lynched in a row.
Well yes, that's their job description, isn' it? And yes, if innocents are lynched, of course those who pushed the lynch will be questioned; nothing of that is new IMO.


Nopes and that's not what I thought. Rather, it would be in the wolves' interest to bring attention to the cobbler. Now it's me who's a hypocrite to boot though, considering my eternal love for discussing the cobbler's role and tactics. ;) But I'm still allowed to accuse everyone else who does it.
So in a game the defining characteristic of which, compared to other games, is a power boost to the role of the cobbler, wishing to discuss this power and how it affects the game is a sign of wolvery? What else would you like to discuss then?

I hear they're nutritious. Regular consumption will make you fit enough to fight wolves single-handedly. Would you like to try some?
Thanks, no. I've heard the enhanced fitness may come at the cost of uncontrollable body hair growth.


EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Meneltarmacil]

Thanks, no. I've heard the enhanced fitness may come at the cost of uncontrollable body hair growth.

However, if you want something that will make you stronger, I happen to have a bottle of entdraught* that I'll sell for only 20 shiremarks. Doesn't get any cheaper than that!

*Unmentioned note: Actually just Old Forest water mixed with beer.

[Kath]

I get not mentioning whether the Seer dreams or not in the narration. I suppose we just have to assume they do. But if the Ranger misses a protection and the person they were going to protect dies would the narration stay vague or would it specify whether the person didn't die due to a) Ranger protection, b) Cobbler interference or c) Wolvish incompetence.

And, good point about the Cobbler needing to avoid Night-kills. So what happens if the Cobbler gets Night-killed but has named the Seer or Ranger in their nightly pick? Does the pick still go ahead or not?

[Aganzir]

When the Cobbler blinds the Seer or stops the Ranger, does he/she get to know that person's role?
No. I'll let her/him know they've made a hit though.
I take this to mean the narration won't say anything about the cobbler's activities. Otherwise she'd get to know the person's exact role.

And yeah we can't ignore the cobbler but there isn't a lot we can do about her right now either because she'll appear as an ordo to the seer. All the usual rules apply: lynch whoever is suspicious, no matter if you suspect them of furriness or das Schuhmachen.

So in a game the defining characteristic of which, compared to other games, is a power boost to the role of the cobbler, wishing to discuss this power and how it affects the game is a sign of wolvery? What else would you like to discuss then?
Yes. We're all wolves (except you who are the self-confessed cobbler), and I'd just like to talk about myself. :p

But if the Ranger misses a protection and the person they were going to protect dies would the narration stay vague or would it specify whether the person didn't die due to a) Ranger protection, b) Cobbler interference or c) Wolvish incompetence.
If the person dies because the cobbler stopped the ranger, she dies and that's it - if there was a narration about the cobbler holding the ranger back in a bear hug, the former would definitely learn which gifted she stopped.
And if the cobbler doesn't stop the ranger and she makes a successful save, I can't see any specific reason not to mention it.

So what happens if the Cobbler gets Night-killed but has named the Seer or Ranger in their nightly pick? Does the pick still go ahead or not?
I would imagine it does.

[Pitchwife]

So what happens if the Cobbler gets Night-killed but has named the Seer or Ranger in their nightly pick? Does the pick still go ahead or not?
In other words, "If we screw up and kill our cobbler, will we still profit from xyr pick?":D
Never mind what I said above about cobbler discussion in general, who but the wolves would need to worry about that?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Elaboration on how the narrative will reflect a block would indeed be useful. I'd also like to add that with the Cobbler's extra abilities this go around, there ought not to be anyone saying something "Leave X be; just a Cobbler".
Quite. This is probably the only time I will fall away from my usual approach and consider the Cobbler worth lynching when it comes to that. Image the situations of the Seer being revealed, having the last dream among us and being targeted... and so on.

I get not mentioning whether the Seer dreams or not in the narration. I suppose we just have to assume they do. But if the Ranger misses a protection and the person they were going to protect dies would the narration stay vague or would it specify whether the person didn't die due to a) Ranger protection, b) Cobbler interference or c) Wolvish incompetence.

And, good point about the Cobbler needing to avoid Night-kills. So what happens if the Cobbler gets Night-killed but has named the Seer or Ranger in their nightly pick? Does the pick still go ahead or not?

Well, the Cobbler needs to avoid the Night-kills in every game, of course. The new thing is that probably this time around the Wolves care a bit more for the Cobbler than usual, because of the "bonus abilities".

As for the Cobbler's death and the ability still being active, I'd think so. In the Werebear games, for instance, if the Ranger was night-killed e.g. by the Bear but protected a person targeted by the Wolves, she most often still protected the person from the Wolves, even though she died herself. I would say this would be analogical case. Or, technically, just like a non-logical Hunter killing whomever. But maybe the Moddess can clarify.

Speaking of her... shh... Kitanna, you still haven't corrected the typo of "for the rest of the day" in your Cobbler description ;)

Overall - I think I'll try to prepare some very short summary on what I think of people this far. I see the Cobbler-talk has dominated most of the debate, but that's pretty okay, I think. Better than sitting here being mute.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan and Pitch

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I take this to mean the narration won't say anything about the cobbler's activities.
Obviously. It will be a lot of running in the dark, of course, the Ranger/Seer will know, but that won't help the "common folk" much. But then again, it really does not matter (technically) whether some kill occured because the person wasn't protected or because the Cobbler succeeded in targeting the Ranger - the person is still simply dead. In fact, it might even confuse the WWs - because it will be harder for them to determine the Ranger's identity that way, for example (i.e. they couldn't make conclusions based on who was likely to protect whom etc...)

Yes. We're all wolves (except you who are the self-confessed cobbler), and I'd just like to talk about myself. :p
We know you like nothing more than that.

In other words, "If we screw up and kill our cobbler, will we still profit from xyr pick?":D
Never mind what I said above about cobbler discussion in general, who but the wolves would need to worry about that?
Hm, good spot. But then again, I think even innocents can speculate on theoretical basis - after all, what else is all this cobbler-pick debate about...

Anyway, so far, many of the people are "no show" and I am afraid I won't be around when the main debate starts. But no can do. I am trying to make as much as I can out of being here now, though of course there is nothing much to work with yet.

Shasta - exactly one of the no show folks
Menel - nothing special this far, I have no intention to get rid of him for no special reason when playing with him after such a long time
Glirdan - no show yet?
G55 - a bit in the beginning, nothing striking about her
Nerwen - again, nothing there
Legate - that's me
Pitchwife - a very nice discussion-starter, interesting digging deep into the Cobbler-issues, one can of course ask whether there isn't some agenda behind it, if he was a Wolf trying to find the Cobbler, then his Kath-spot might be attempt to randomly accuse someone, but if he was a Cobbler fishing for Wolves, not sure if he would start bringing attention to people who could be potential Wolves in his eyes; anyway, interesting persona
Nogrod - I fear of seeing him posting at 5 AM, when I am no longer here...
Lommy – nothing special this far
Inzil - talkative, but hard to make out anything out of that, though I'm somewhat wary
Aganzir - a bit the same case as Pitch, one of the Cob-talkers
Sally - no show...
Kath - ha, actually, I think I am sort of forming an opinion about her - which is most unusual, because normally I have no clue about her whatsoever! She seems in any case very active and interested, in fact, she was one of the main talkers this far... there is an air of genuine interest and activity about her, I'd say.

In any case, those are very preliminary, I mean, it's early Day 1. In general I don't have anybody I would find clearly suspicious or anything, so I hope there will be more overnight (my night) and also that I'll manage to process it before I have to vote...

[Nogrod]

J'accuse the authorities over the unhappy case of Mr. Dreyfus... oops, wrong time and place. J'accuse the football-games then... in this foul winter? Oops, again... I think I'm not perfectly balanced right now. You know us old guys...

But into reading now, erm... reminiscing about what has been said.

[Nerwen]

Here's a mug of beer for each of you gentlehobbits– drink deep and drown your sorrows. Don't worry. it's on the house. (Inzil just doesn't know it yet.)

Now, I couldn't help overhearing some of the conversation, and I must say, Menel seems intent on stating the obvious– wolves will try to lynch innocents? You don't say?:rolleyes:


'Course, he's been out of town a good long while on his travels, and has maybe forgotten how we do things here.

X'd with the Retired Barkeep.

[Galadriel55]

I'm popping in before leaving for a couple hours again and commenting as I read.

Wolfberries...

Hmmm.... ;)

I'm no wolf, nor do I help them. The wolves involved in these lynchings need not be particularly loud, nor is every innocent lynched only by wolves.

This looks a bit overly defensive/dramatic for my taste. And this:

However, even if innocents are lynching innocents, you can bet that there will be at least one wolf making sure his fellows aren't going to the noose. Whether he is making the major arguments himself or merely reinforcing those made by the gullible, I still expect a wolf or two to be involved when multiple innocents are lynched in a row.

...is the second time you're stating the obvious.

I don't know your playing style, and it might have changed anyways over your absence, and playing for the first time after a big break can be nervewracking, I guess, but you do sound a bit too concerned.

And yeah we can't ignore the cobbler but there isn't a lot we can do about her right now either because she'll appear as an ordo to the seer.

(Bolding mine)

Ok, I'm seriously hyperventilating right now. My alarm turned on when you said "her". I don't always write both genders, or a cross (like "xe"), but then people usually choose male over female. Why "her"? I can't wave it off as a typo, because you refer as the cobbler like that twice, and in different forms of the word! This makes me wonder about your role, Agan. Considering that, as you said, the seer doesn't differentiate a cobbler from an ordo, who else but the cobbler themself and the Moddess would know the correct gender of that role? What else, but the exact knowledge, could have caused this slip?

In other words, "If we screw up and kill our cobbler, will we still profit from xyr pick?":D
Never mind what I said above about cobbler discussion in general, who but the wolves would need to worry about that?

Umm, innocents? We don't want the pick to go through!


Edit: xed since #23

[Aganzir]

In other words, "If we screw up and kill our cobbler, will we still profit from xyr pick?":D
Never mind what I said above about cobbler discussion in general, who but the wolves would need to worry about that?
I like your paraphrasing well enough. Which means that the way Kath initiated the cobbler talk raised my hackles a tiny bit and you gave words to my feeling.

Image the situations of the Seer being revealed, having the last dream among us and being targeted... and so on.
Not that I'd think our seer is dumb or anything, but she shouldn't forget about the cobbler before revealing if she hasn't targeted her before.

Oh yay, this is one of those villages we can't really even trust the seer because the cobbler appears as an ordo.

Speaking of her... shh... Kitanna, you still haven't corrected the typo of "for the rest of the day" in your Cobbler description
Says the one who asked if the ranger can protect two people in a row. :p

I'm off to bed now. I'll pop in and vote before work tomorrow, and if I'm feeling energetic, I may even stay and post for a while.

[Nerwen]

My alarm turned on when you said "her". I don't always write both genders, or a cross (like "xe"), but then people usually choose male over female. Why "her"? I can't wave it off as a typo, because you refer as the cobbler like that twice, and in different forms of the word! This makes me wonder about your role, Agan.
You mean her role as "Finnish feminist"?;)

Really, I doubt very much whether it could be a slip. Agan's hardly a n00b...

Prediction: Agan will now find me highly suspicious for defending her.

Edit: X'd with Agan.

[Aganzir]

I don't know your playing style, and it might have changed anyways over your absence, and playing for the first time after a big break can be nervewracking, I guess, but you do sound a bit too concerned.
I think his playing style is nothing out of ordinary. Whether that's a good or a bad thing though, who can tell?

Why "her"? I can't wave it off as a typo, because you refer as the cobbler like that twice, and in different forms of the word!
Look at my last post and you'll see I'm also the seer. ;)

[Aganzir]

NERWEN IS A WOLF! Lynch!

bed->

[Thinlómien]

To be honest, my brain does not work especially as my head is in the wrong fandom (ahem) and I haven't played ww in ages. *complain complain complain*

What stands out to me the most is G55's "case" against Menel. It's almost a schoolbook example of a flimsy Day1 case that gets its maker lynched because it looks wolvish but is innocent ergo I keep thinking G55 is double-bluffing by trying to look too suspicious to be a wolf. :rolleyes:

[Inziladun]

Here's a mug of beer for each of you gentlehobbits– drink deep and drown your sorrows. Don't worry. it's on the house. (Inzil just doesn't know it yet.)

Noo! They'll drink up me profits! :eek:

Now, I couldn't help overhearing some of the conversation, and I must say, Menel seems intent on stating the obvious– wolves will try to lynch innocents? You don't say?:rolleyes:


This looks a bit overly defensive/dramatic for my taste. And this:



...is the second time you're stating the obvious.

I don't know your playing style, and it might have changed anyways over your absence, and playing for the first time after a big break can be nervewracking, I guess, but you do sound a bit too concerned.

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

Ok, I'm seriously hyperventilating right now. My alarm turned on when you said "her". I don't always write both genders, or a cross (like "xe"), but then people usually choose male over female. Why "her"? I can't wave it off as a typo, because you refer as the cobbler like that twice, and in different forms of the word! This makes me wonder about your role, Agan. Considering that, as you said, the seer doesn't differentiate a cobbler from an ordo, who else but the cobbler themself and the Moddess would know the correct gender of that role? What else, but the exact knowledge, could have caused this slip?

I seem to recall Agan having a habit of calling the Cobbler "she". Why? Ask the wind why it blows. ;)

x/d with Agan and Lommy

[Nerwen]

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

I hope I'm not putting my job on the line when I suggest that my honoured employer check for x-posting next time.:Merisu:

[Thinlómien]

Around
Menel - for some reason whatever he ever says, I find it suspicious. For this reason, I'm reserving judgement until Day2.
G55 - typical G55 Day1 messing around. To the point that it looks like a cover for something.
Nerwen - is evil as usual. Hopefully just the behaviour not the alignment this time.
Legate - I appreciate his effort to talk. It still doesn't help me much that he talks.
Pitch - fine.
Nog - for some reason, I liked his one-liner. Maybe because I feel like saying j'accuse flu and George R.R. Martin and go to bed to read and sleep instead of playing.
Inzil - after Agan pointed out (in RL) that he's probably again playing at work, his posts haven't made me feel anything else except for amusement. We've yet to see if he's the good cop or the bad cop.
Agan - seems to be enjoying herself.
Kath - confusing role talk. Not sure if anything should be made out of it.

No-shows
Shasta
Sally
Glirdan

Me
Lommy


edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

What stands out to me the most is G55's "case" against Menel. It's almost a schoolbook example of a flimsy Day1 case that gets its maker lynched because it looks wolvish but is innocent ergo I keep thinking G55 is double-bluffing by trying to look too suspicious to be a wolf. :rolleyes:Or trying the ice with Agan's use of the feminine pronoun? A helpful innocent trying to get discussion going or something else? But it should be noted she does try unlike most of us others and therefore I'd like to give her the benefit of doubt at least this point on D1.

Menel I think just suffers from a long time of not playing and thus states the obvious - but for what reason he thinks it is a good thing to say those things? To make himself look a smart player we wouldn't want to lynch? Now what ios the motivation behind someone coming into a game trying first and foremost stay alive? On the other hand I remember some games from years ago when I think I suspected him quite frequently just because of the way he played so I'm not going to take that clue at least for now any further because of our history.

Now it may be I'm also in a bit of rust, but to me Zil's point about the cobbler needing to avoid Night-kills kind of raised some alarms. I knowperfectly well (been there, done that a few times), yes, that the cobbler has a special problem of staying alive during the Nights, but I didn't "remember" it. So reading it was like, "yes, you have a point there! - wait, I know that actually"...

So maybe I'm just coming into this game more unprepared I should or then Inzil is just so spot on into the game - or then he speaks of things that are close to him this time... Hard to say, as always - and I will not make that a reason to vote him anyway, but will take it as a reason to follow him more closely to be sure.


EDIT: X'd with three last ones...

EDIT: used the expression "benefit of trust" (instead of "doubt")... which I'm not actually sure what it might mean, but probably nothing I mean anyway... :)

[satansaloser2005]

Ugh. Migraine. No me for hours. I'll stop in later this evening after I've had some rest. Sorry, everyone.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, going to bed now since my head doesn't work much, I'll be around tomorrow before the DL. Just as the last comment I would like to do a bit of Captain Obviousing and say that since I've just checked the rules and roles and done some maths, we need to be sharp in this game. It is three wolves and a powerful cobbler against nine innocents. The odds could be much better.

Good night and see you around!


edit: xed with poor Sally. Get better!
edit2: am I the only who keeps switching the words in the thread title the other way around? I know, I'm corrupted and should go to bed...

[Meneltarmacil]

I suppose what I meant was:

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

[Inziladun]

I hope I'm not putting my job on the line when I suggest that my honoured employer check for x-posting next time.:Merisu:

Ah. Noted.

I suppose what I meant was:

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

Well certainly, if we can spot a pattern of a particular person pushing innocent lynches, that would be something to zero in on.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Typical, I am about to leave and there is a host.

A couple of remarks, really briefly. (alas...)

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows. But as for G55's vehement case, I can see her becoming intent on exploring some issue like that, so I am not intent to putting much behind either issue. Of course, that said, whoever thinks Agan is not fooling anybody is probably always wrong, but...

More interestingly, what's up with Lommy and Nog suspecting Menel? I think he said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance. I just wonder if this is the thing I remember from ages ago, when Menel was playing and very often he ended up victim of some random accusation. I'd be wary of that, especially on Day 1.

As for Lommy's part at least, she sounds a bit more, hmm, accusatory than usual, but also a bit more confused, so perhaps she just needs to rest and recover (from both the body sickness and the apparent case of Iceandfirobsessionia :) ). I may just as well follow her example. I'll be back before DL, I hope.

EDIT: x-ed with Menel (what I said) and Zil.

[Nogrod]

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1? :rolleyes:

EDIT: Xd with Legate

[Pitchwife]

Thoughts on those who have posted so far:

Gal55 - content-free first post, can be anything.

Zil - mostly commenting, reasonable points, basically his standard inscrutable self; defends Menel against me (which I actually like).

Lommy - sick, therefore excused.

Menel - has been a bit Captain Obvious and theoretical up to now, but his elaboration on his first post is sound enough, and his reaction to me doesn't strike me as particularly wolvish. Anyway, like Legate said, I'd need a good reason to vote him D1 in his first game in ages.

Legate - posting behaviour similar to Zil, reasonable stuff, wishy-washy as far as suspicions go (which is nothing new), except he seems to feel good about Kath.

Kath - "interested and active", yes, and I find no fault in wanting to discuss the new and improved(TM) cobbler, but the piece from her last post I paraphrased seems to me to be thinking too much from the perspective of the wolves.

Agan - don't trust her farther than I can throw her on general principle, but there's nothing especially alerting yet, except maybe the bit about me being the cobbler, where I'm not sure whether she was teasing me, suspecting me or hinting at me (probably not the latter, too obvious).

- The above was written before everybody started talking, especially before Gal accused Menel, which is exactly the sort of latching-on I hoped to provoke by poking at him (and yes, Menel, I think we've all got what your point was by now). And look, Nog is doing it too, casting some doubt but not actually committing to anything. I don't approve. As for his point about Zil, I'll need that explained to me, because I don't really get what he's trying to say.

Btw, I have to vote within the next half hour or so, DL being in the middle of my workday. I could imagine voting Kath for that wolf-think quote, but we'll see.

[Pitchwife]

Umm, innocents? We don't want the pick to go through!

No, we don't, but whatever happens if the cobbler is Night-killed has no bearing on how we play, because the Night kill is out of our hands, so it concerns us much less than it does the wolves.

[Nogrod]

And look, Nog is doing it too, casting some doubt but not actually committing to anything. I don't approve.Now where is your commitment with 40 posts on D1? Or anyone elses'? :)

Just asking before you decide to make the lack of committed cases reason to vote... I mean you don't have twelve votes but just one...


PS. I'm going to sleep as well pretty soon, but will still participate and vote later...

[Glirdan]

Good morning everybody....or is it afternoon? This weary thespian has been loosing track of time and days for just over a fortnight now and had not realized the sun had risen. (RL: Seriously, my days are just one giant day lately and completely forgot).

However, I am here and shall inform myself of the going ons of this heinous crime!! For I....I....Dangit...forgot my line again....

Alright, enough IC.

Here, reading, will hopefully post shortly. I too may have to vote early, or not....depends on whether or not I can keep myself awake until 8 in the morning....and seeing as I'm currently busy with a show, the likelihood of that is slim to none. But I will be able to stick around and have some chatter for the better part of the Day. :) Now on to some reading.

[Pitchwife]

Now where is your commitment with 40 posts on D1? Or anyone elses'? :)
What has the number of posts got to do with it? You don't need x pages of thread to suspect somebody for a reason and stick to it. As in: I suspect you for picking up a point about Menel second hand from Gal55 who picked it up from me and using it to put pressure on him while keeping open a back door by saying it may just be his playing style. And yes, it's D1, so I may be wrong. That's life.

And yes, I'm going to stick to it.
++Nogrod

[Meneltarmacil]

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1? :rolleyes:

EDIT: Xd with Legate

I'm not. Influential people are not the problem.

Influential wolves, however, are. I've seen many villages brought down by silver-tongued beasts who have manipulated everyone into following them. I just don't want it to happen here.

[Meneltarmacil]

Sorry, did not have much time to finish the last post.

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village, and as such, we need to be aware that a string of "bad luck" may not be entirely caused by chance.

[Nogrod]

What has the number of posts got to do with it? You don't need x pages of thread to suspect somebody for a reason and stick to it.
Obviously. And sorry for the bad phrasing... and you Pitch know that too - that it was bad phrasing * which someone like you would not have used as a pretext to partly justify your vote... which in turn makes me suspect you as I can see only a wolf or a total noob cling into that kind of a point. How :cool: this game is!

* saying 40 posts obviously is no criteria as there have been occasions (not too many, but there have been a few games) where people have made great points, hard questions, bad answers, revealing comments, tough Q&A etc. in the first page of a WW-game. So of course the number of posts as such is no criteria, but in 9 games out of 10 (or 8, blah-blah), suffice to say "normally" the first page gives one little or no clue as to what is going on - and this game looked like just one of those games...

As in: I suspect you for picking up a point about Menel second hand from Gal55 who picked it up from me and using it to put pressure on him while keeping open a back door by saying it may just be his playing style.Forgive me my silly question, but where do I pick a suspection by you on Menel? Aren't you now just admitting you tried out something? And if you admit you tried out something how come you think no one else ever tries out something as well? tsk-tsk.

Or should I vote you because you "made a point about Menel"? The reason behind that vote would be as good as yours...

I mean really, I took part in a discussion about one of the persons who had raised most discussion to give my two cents on it and was actually asking only for the motive for Menel to state the obvious the way he did (I'm still curious about that) and then actually went back thinking him less probably a wolf because of a) his long absence, and b) because of our history of me suspecting him so many times before because of the way he plays.

And yes, it's D1, so I may be wrong. That's life.That sounds too much like you know already beforehand that you are "wrong"...

Now do you? :smokin:


Good night (RL) and good luck...

[Nogrod]

Influential wolves, however, are. I've seen many villages brought down by silver-tongued beasts who have manipulated everyone into following them.I have seen that happen a time or two. Sure. From the 50+ games I've played I've seen one or two. Maybe five years ago. Or something.

So my problem with your "crusade" (sorry about that word) is that it is totally overdone and a bit misguided. There have been loud wolves trying to do that but they have been lynched soon enough basically every time. I mean anytime someone manages to convince others to lynch A or B and they turn out innocents that person gets lynched even if he is innocent (I should know that)... and actually that's the reason why the wolves love loudmouths who are wrong. :)

So it's been a long time I have seen any wolf trying to openly lead the village as they know it's their downfall as sooner rather than later they will be lynched.

But yeah, it's been a long time since you last played and the dynamics have somewhat changed while you have been away. You'll see...

It is still fun, though. :)

[Galadriel55]

Back and reading...

[Galadriel55]

Not that I'd think our seer is dumb or anything, but she shouldn't forget about the cobbler before revealing if she hasn't targeted her before.

Oh, you're doing it again, this time for the Seer AND the cobbler. What's up with you? :(

Look at my last post and you'll see I'm also the seer.

Yeah. Which one are you? :p

I seem to recall Agan having a habit of calling the Cobbler "she". Why? Ask the wind why it blows.

The Seer too, eh?

I don't remember Agan refering to an unknown role as a "she" before. Well, I would have had to learn that sooner or later. I apologize to the village for messing things, and - of course - I clear that point on Agan.

But I was so excited when I saw it!...

I hope you're better soon, sally! And Lommy!

edit2: am I the only who keeps switching the words in the thread title the other way around? I know, I'm corrupted and should go to bed...

<3 lol! ^^

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows.

Maybe I forgot, or I just haven't played enough games with Agan, but this is the first time I see this habbit.

I think [Menel] said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance.

There's a difference between being sensible and being sensible and obvious. Saying "wolves are bad" is also a pretty logical and sensible thing. Where I'm getting at, is that I get what you're saying about Menel's posts being true and substancial, but I also get the other side of it, that they are what is to be understood without having to say it.

I find Menel's posts kinda awkward; not because he's saying the obvious truth, but because of how hard he defends it. When people commented on how he posts (ie being obvious), he repeated his point again with elaboration and etc., but was no less obvious. It's not like anyone disagrees with what he says, it's how he says it, and this does not change from post to post. I'll keep in mind that he is back from a very big break, and unless there's some more substancial point against him I wouldn't consider him more suspicious than most.

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village, and as such, we need to be aware that a string of "bad luck" may not be entirely caused by chance.

Menel, please understand this - no one's questioning what you say. We know this, and we agree. People are questioning why you are saying it, since it's not something one can't figure out from reading the general guidelines to WW.


I'll put up a list of some sort a bit later.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

This is kind of obvious - actually, a little too obvious for my taste. Or should it be read as "Hear me, packmates, and keep a low profile while we help the loudmouths lynch each other"?

Perhaps, but doesn't it make more sense that a Wolftarmacil would have just said that to his packmates during the night, instead of attempting to hint to his fellows on-thread when we're all watching?

Actually, what it does scream is "gratuitous Skyrim reference";
I got it. :p

Rather, it would be in the wolves' interest to bring attention to the cobbler.
Normally, I can see that. Given how useful the cobbler is to the wolves this game, though (rather more than your run-of-the-mill cobbler), I don't know that I agree with this statement. I would think it would benefit the wolves more to keep attention off their Gifted-blocker.

I'd also like to add that with the Cobbler's extra abilities this go around, there ought not to be anyone saying something "Leave X be; just a Cobbler".
Shasta agreeing with Inzil? On anything? What is the world coming to? :p I do agree with this, though (of course, I've been saying not to ignore the Cobbler for a long time, too.)

Never mind what I said above about cobbler discussion in general, who but the wolves would need to worry about that?
Translation - "I've hit on a perfect way to be able to suspect anyone; all they have to do is ask a question about a role we've never seen before!"

Pitch is pinging my radar.

This looks a bit overly defensive/dramatic for my taste. And this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
However, even if innocents are lynching innocents, you can bet that there will be at least one wolf making sure his fellows aren't going to the noose. Whether he is making the major arguments himself or merely reinforcing those made by the gullible, I still expect a wolf or two to be involved when multiple innocents are lynched in a row.
...is the second time you're stating the obvious.

I don't know your playing style, and it might have changed anyways over your absence, and playing for the first time after a big break can be nervewracking, I guess, but you do sound a bit too concerned.
This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?

Which means that the way Kath initiated the cobbler talk raised my hackles a tiny bit
You're right, this is a bit hypocritical. What I don't really care for, though, is the way you yourself mentioned it and then laughed it off as though it doesn't really matter. Why is it that Kath seems suspicious for talking about the cobbler, yet you don't?

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

I'm agreeing with Inzil again. Inzil, what exactly did you put in this brew of yours...?

Now it may be I'm also in a bit of rust, but to me Zil's point about the cobbler needing to avoid Night-kills kind of raised some alarms.
I didn't really think about it until Nog's post, but that seems to me just as much "stating the obvious" as Menel was doing earlier... which also makes me wonder why those who pounced on Menel for it (Pitch, my shining star, G55) didn't also pounce on Inzil.

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.
Also, if there's a period of three or more Days in which only innocents have been lynched, we've already lost (unless the Ranger is awesome, and even then, the odds suck.)

Whew, I think that's pretty much everything thus far. Dear light, might I trouble you for another drink? Thirsty work, and all that. :Merisu:

[Meneltarmacil]

Inzil's post does seem a bit suspicious to me, despite my disagreement with Nogrod thus far, in a "psst, cobbler, give us some hints so we don't eat you" way.

What is stranger still, as Shasta pointed out, was the lack of reaction to this statement of Inzil's and so far only Nogrod seems to regard it as "off."

[Inziladun]

Whew. Dealing with rough weather here tonight! I think I'm one of the few around here who has electricity.

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows. But as for G55's vehement case, I can see her becoming intent on exploring some issue like that, so I am not intent to putting much behind either issue.

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

More interestingly, what's up with Lommy and Nog suspecting Menel? I think he said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance. I just wonder if this is the thing I remember from ages ago, when Menel was playing and very often he ended up victim of some random accusation. I'd be wary of that, especially on Day 1.

Agreed. The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon.

Thoughts on those who have posted so far:

Gal55 - content-free first post, can be anything.

Zil - mostly commenting, reasonable points, basically his standard inscrutable self; defends Menel against me (which I actually like).

Lommy - sick, therefore excused.

Menel - has been a bit Captain Obvious and theoretical up to now, but his elaboration on his first post is sound enough, and his reaction to me doesn't strike me as particularly wolvish. Anyway, like Legate said, I'd need a good reason to vote him D1 in his first game in ages.

Legate - posting behaviour similar to Zil, reasonable stuff, wishy-washy as far as suspicions go (which is nothing new), except he seems to feel good about Kath.

Kath - "interested and active", yes, and I find no fault in wanting to discuss the new and improved(TM) cobbler, but the piece from her last post I paraphrased seems to me to be thinking too much from the perspective of the wolves.

Agan - don't trust her farther than I can throw her on general principle, but there's nothing especially alerting yet, except maybe the bit about me being the cobbler, where I'm not sure whether she was teasing me, suspecting me or hinting at me (probably not the latter, too obvious).

- The above was written before everybody started talking, especially before Gal accused Menel, which is exactly the sort of latching-on I hoped to provoke by poking at him (and yes, Menel, I think we've all got what your point was by now). And look, Nog is doing it too, casting some doubt but not actually committing to anything. I don't approve. As for his point about Zil, I'll need that explained to me, because I don't really get what he's trying to say.

Btw, I have to vote within the next half hour or so, DL being in the middle of my workday. I could imagine voting Kath for that wolf-think quote, but we'll see.

I don't know if I really think Kath is all that suspicious just based on that quote. As someone pointed out, couldn't the wolves PM the moddess instead of risking saying that here? Could be she just wasn't thinking, but still....

Pitch mostly makes sense, but every so often something, like the Kath suspicion, makes me wonder. And the vote for Nog sure was sudden.

Perhaps, but doesn't it make more sense that a Wolftarmacil would have just said that to his packmates during the night, instead of attempting to hint to his fellows on-thread when we're all watching?

Agreed! Have we stumbled into a parallel universe?

This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?

Yeah, like I said , I'm rather bothered by G55. I'll probably have to vote soon, and she may be my pick.

I'm agreeing with Inzil again. Inzil, what exactly did you put in this brew of yours...?

Sorry, but it's a house secret. And bark from trees in the Old Forest is definitely not an ingredient. ;)

I didn't really think about it until Nog's post, but that seems to me just as much "stating the obvious" as Menel was doing earlier... which also makes me wonder why those who pounced on Menel for it (Pitch, my shining star, G55) didn't also pounce on Inzil.

I don't know either. Are you trying to incite them to do so? :rolleyes:

[Inziladun]

Ok. It's bedtime, and with the morning madness that is my weekday routine, I may or may not make back before DL.

I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there. However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.

++G55

Choose well.

[Galadriel55]

Shasta - still toiling through the snow, it seems.

Menel - oy vey. Why so concentrated on proving a truth that already has been proven, when he is questioned based on why he posts it rather the content itself? Menel concentrated on this one issue, though he didn't actually comment directly on it, without participating in others. I can't say that an obsession with proving the obvious truth is signalling a wolf, though, and since there's hardly aught else there's not much to go on. I suppose I'll accept what others have said about this being his playing style (since they would know better than me) and letting it go for toDay.

Glirdan - still reading.

G55 - *waves*

Nerwen - hard to tell, which is nothing new.

Legate - makes me alert, but no red light yet. Can't really say where the ill-at-ease feeling is comming from.

Pitchwife - I think he is overly suspicious of Kath's question about the cobbler pick going through. Or, rather, he gives me the vibe that he's expectant of people to side with him, even wanting people to side with him (Mostly referring to #21). However, his vote for Nog is not unreasonable from his perspective.

Nogrod - doesn't look too out-of-character. Says what he would normally say. Except... see note on bottom.

Lommy – sick, therefore excused. I love her for saying that I "mess around" on Day Ones, cause that's what usually ends up happening. Objectively speaking, she looks ok.

Inzil - seems like the same innocent Inzil I've seen in previous games.

Agan - is Agan *sigh*. She's a cobbler whatever her actual role.

Sally - full of migrane, therefore excused.

Kath - Despite the suspicion, I rather like that she brought up the cobbler, since it gave people something to discuss. And the questions she asks (eg about the narration) are something an innocent could ask just as much as a wolf, so in my opinion they don't show any particular wolvishness.



NOTE:

Now where is your commitment with 40 posts on D1? Or anyone elses'? :)

This is the one thing about Nog that bothers me, but it's so trivial it's bound to be ridiculous. Somehow, I can't imagine Nog saying that with a ":)" on his face. I'd expect his expression to be more like ":rolleyes:". Was he trying to "be nice" to avoid Pitchie's oncoming vote?

Blargh, this is worse that the "she-cobbler" case. I can't build proper cases on Day1. ><

EDIT: xed since my last. Shasta's here!!!

[Galadriel55]

This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?

Apparently not, since I honestly don't remember such a thing from the past. As for the timing, well, you expect someone to react to suspicion, not repeat the reason for the suspicion. Which is why my post, which talks about the second time suspicious behaviour is repeated, could not possibly have come before the suspicion itself. And I cross-posted with Nerwen.

Yeah, like I said , I'm rather bothered by G55.

I'm a rather bothersome person. Especially when I have too much free time on my hands and too high a post count.

[Galadriel55]

Well, I have to go to bed soon, otherwise my head will feel like a brick tomorrow. Looking at my list, Pitch is the one who gives me the most bad vibes. See the list for my thoughts on him.

++PITCH




Incidentally, what was the decision for ties? I don't think this point was ever clarified...

[Meneltarmacil]

I think I'll vote now, and it will be for

++Inziladun

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I have to go to bed soon, otherwise my head will feel like a brick tomorrow. Looking at my list, Pitch is the one who gives me the most bad vibes. See the list for my thoughts on him.

++PITCH




Incidentally, what was the decision for ties? I don't think this point was ever clarified...

Ehhh. I don't like this at all. G55's first suspicion was on Menel, and it was bandwagony. In her list, though, she backs off Menel (because of the opposition it's getting?) and really only gives a solid statement on Pitch (and perhaps Nogrod, but as it's based on an emoticon...) while also saying this -
However, his vote for Nog is not unreasonable from his perspective.
- which is extremely confusing; if you don't agree with [b]Pitch's perspective (hence being suspicious of him on your list), how can his vote be okay?

Summa summarum - G55 suspects Menel until opposition is too strong, and backs off, going instead for Pitch with odd/weird/confusing reasoning. I don't disagree that Pitch is suspicious (cf. my previous post - he does seem like he's jumping at the chance to blow up incredibly minor things into full-fledged suspicion), but I think I'm more suspicious of G55.

++G55

[Nerwen]

Back. Reading.

[Aganzir]

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village
The most dangerous is the one who survives, and it's often easier to survive if you stay out of the spotlight and play it smooth. That's why I prefer to vote for a quiet player if I have no better option. I'm still not quite as sceptical as Nog, though - I've seen bold wolves lead the village by the nose more than once or twice and survive to win.

Oh, you're doing it again, this time for the Seer AND the cobbler. What's up with you?
In a language with gender-specific pronouns, everyone is female for me unless proven otherwise. If you've played with me before, you've seen me do it - but I seem to remember you've had a tendency to die early whenever we've played together.

Normally, I can see that. Given how useful the cobbler is to the wolves this game, though (rather more than your run-of-the-mill cobbler), I don't know that I agree with this statement. I would think it would benefit the wolves more to keep attention off their Gifted-blocker.
Normally, the cobbler has no special abilities to help the wolves with. No one will spot the cobbler just because we talk about her (unless she makes an obvious slip :p), but the wolves might not be particularly averse to bringing it up to test the ice and see if anyone returns their cobbler signals. Just because they wouldn't want to kill their little helper by accident, now would they?

You're right, this is a bit hypocritical. What I don't really care for, though, is the way you yourself mentioned it and then laughed it off as though it doesn't really matter. Why is it that Kath seems suspicious for talking about the cobbler, yet you don't?
You've completely misinterpreted what I said. I laughed about being hypocritical because I said talking about the cobbler may be a sign of wolvery while I always do it myself, no matter my role. I didn't say Kath is suspicious for doing it but because of how she brought it up.

I'm agreeing with Inzil again. Inzil, what exactly did you put in this brew of yours...?
I often find it easier to agree with people I normally don't when we're packmates. ;)

I don't know if I really think Kath is all that suspicious just based on that quote. As someone pointed out, couldn't the wolves PM the moddess instead of risking saying that here? Could be she just wasn't thinking, but still....
It's not as if a wolf asked it for the benefit of the rest of the pack but for the cobbler.

[Aganzir]

Okay here's what I have.

I don't necessarily suspect Kath for starting to talk about the cobbler. She was the first person I reacted to, but there had been very little talk so far.

Menel is a dilemma because it would be dangerous to ignore him just because he always looks suspicious.

I think Shasta looks relatively good despite misquoting me.

G55 was grasping at straws with me and to an extent Nog. I remember her being suspected because of grasping at straws before, and I'm not entirely clear about who xed with whom in the Menel episode. I could find her suspicious though, but I'd rather not just yet.

Nog and Pitch are being odd. Nog was jumpy when accused. He's always jumpy when accused though. Pitch should know there's rarely lots of content on day 1, Nog should know you don't need lots of posts for content.

Inzil is smooth.

Of anyone else I don't have a clear idea. Not that these are very clear either.

Hmm.

I'll basically have to vote now.

++Pitch

He's the one I feel the most comfortable voting.

Ps. a message for Lommy who I know will appreciate it: you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet!

[Nerwen]

But that seems to me just as much "stating the obvious" as Menel was doing earlier... which also makes me wonder why those who pounced on Menel for it (Pitch, my shining star, G55) didn't also pounce on Inzil.
Speaking for myself, I didn't notice it. Menel kept defending his point, and making a song-and-dance about it, so of course it got more attention.

This bothers me. The timing is interesting - G55 is the third person to jump on the "Menel is too obvious" bandwagon. And have you really not played enough with Agan to know that she refers to all roles as "she"?
G55 did cross with me, though. And I'm not sure how often she's played with Agan– maybe she really didn't know. Though that's rather beside the point– she must know Agan's a veteran player, anyway, and that "she", if a slip, would be the kind only a newbie makes– more than once, anyway.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

[Nerwen]

The most dangerous is the one who survives, and it's often easier to survive if you stay out of the spotlight and play it smooth. That's why I prefer to vote for a quiet player if I have no better option. I'm still not quite as sceptical as Nog, though - I've seen bold wolves lead the village by the nose more than once or twice and survive to win.
On that note, Nog seems to have entirely forgotten about Shastawolf in the last game but one...

[Thinlómien]

So I'm here, I've read everything and I have to vote like in 10min... could have woken up earlier but no can do anymore. Also, I was not *so* sick yesterday, I don't need to be excused because of it. Shall post again very soon, now off to feed the tortoise and think...

[Thinlómien]

Okay, to be honest I have no idea. The only ones whose behaviour I find suspicious are Menel and Galadriel, both of whose behaviour I ALWAYS suspect, especially on Day1.

So let's go with gut-feeling:

++Aganzir

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Just because they wouldn't want to kill their little helper by accident, now would they?
True enough, but by the same token, I think they're going to care more than they normally would about whether or not they get lynched, too. That was my main point, since people who get a lot of attention early have a history of getting lynched. :p

You've completely misinterpreted what I said. I laughed about being hypocritical because I said talking about the cobbler may be a sign of wolvery while I always do it myself, no matter my role. I didn't say Kath is suspicious for doing it but because of how she brought it up.
Fair enough, but then I'm a little confused by what you find suspicious. Is it just that Kath came out of the gate asking questions about the role, or what?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On that note, Nog seems to have entirely forgotten about Shastawolf in the last game but one...

And we all saw how well that worked out. :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 2
Agan -> Pitch 2
Lommy -> Agan

Six votes to come: Glirdy, Nerwen, Legate, Sally, Kath & me.


G55's twists and turns sure merit a second look and I still think Pitch looks suspicious. But with G55's vote on Pitch it looks less plausible they both are wolves (not impossible, naturally, but less plausible).

Of others I have too little to suspect them for the time being - and I will not vote for Menel on D1 when he's back in the game after such a long time - unless he starts to scream wolf: which is probably not going to happen as he has voted and left...

Be back a little later.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Popping in shortly, there seems to be (or was) rather nice discussion.

Ad G55's reaction to Menel-debate, I find it awkward. In the end, she decided not to vote him, but one can still look at it as "feeding suspicion".
There's a difference between being sensible and being sensible and obvious. Saying "wolves are bad" is also a pretty logical and sensible thing. Where I'm getting at, is that I get what you're saying about Menel's posts being true and substancial, but I also get the other side of it, that they are what is to be understood without having to say it.
I think he was saying a sensible thing, I mean, if we dissect everything, then everything is already a known fact, one way or another. Nothing new under the sun. Yet saying "if we keep mislynching due to certain people leading the discussion, we should turn our eyes on them" is a reasonable thing to say, so why shouldn't he say it.

I find Menel's posts kinda awkward; not because he's saying the obvious truth, but because of how hard he defends it. When people commented on how he posts (ie being obvious), he repeated his point again with elaboration and etc., but was no less obvious. It's not like anyone disagrees with what he says, it's how he says it, and this does not change from post to post. I'll keep in mind that he is back from a very big break, and unless there's some more substancial point against him I wouldn't consider him more suspicious than most.
I think he just continued clarifying, and I think he *did* clarify it a bit better later (close to the end of the first page) - taking out the core. I think what he says is a legitimate proposal of strategy, nothing groundbreaking perhaps, but I don't see a problem with it.

Anyway, other thing, Nog is standing out a bit to me, his reaction to Pitch being somewhat too jumpy.

Forgive me my silly question, but where do I pick a suspection by you on Menel? Aren't you now just admitting you tried out something? And if you admit you tried out something how come you think no one else ever tries out something as well? tsk-tsk.

Or should I vote you because you "made a point about Menel"? The reason behind that vote would be as good as yours...
And then he delves into it in several subsequent posts... I mean, we know Nog is eloquent, but is this necessary?

Also, his remarks about Menel earlier were more like "theoretical", now he calls it "crusade" - even though obviously he does not mean it that strongly, as he himself says, still from the rest of the post it seems he condemns Menel quite strongly ("totally overdone").

So my problem with your "crusade" (sorry about that word) is that it is totally overdone and a bit misguided. There have been loud wolves trying to do that but they have been lynched soon enough basically every time. I mean anytime someone manages to convince others to lynch A or B and they turn out innocents that person gets lynched even if he is innocent (I should know that)... and actually that's the reason why the wolves love loudmouths who are wrong. :)

So it's been a long time I have seen any wolf trying to openly lead the village as they know it's their downfall as sooner rather than later they will be lynched.
But as to the last, I think there aren't really "open leaders", but there still can be vocal yet manipulative Wolves - which is the case where Menel's theory would apply too, I'd say, and in such a case it would be relevant. Like, it's not that a Wolf comes and says "I am the Representative of the village, let's all lynch Snow", I think that has never happened in my memory, but there might be nudging here and there, and if such a person posts a lot and actively, then it can have effect.

Ugh! And this again was far longer than I wanted... off...

Shall be back later still to vote.

[satansaloser2005]

Ugh. All right, all right, I'm awake, and off to make some early morning deliveries. I'll have a quick chat with everyone as I go and see who I think is responsible for this insanity.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I had to check back as to what Menel actually said, and the following is the thing making me uneasy with him:
If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.
Now, first of all, if there are three Days we only lynch innocents - and the wolves score effectively during the Night - we have basically lost as the wolves only need to ask for the cobbler to vote with them on D4. In case we had chances on D4 (like ranger made a succesful save one Night) then I think it is essential we look at everyone as thoroughly as we can because that lynch decides whether the game continues or whether we lose. So any "let's lynch the influential people" default-setting is basically dangerous rather than helpful.

Secondly. Menel's "plan" (let's call it a plan then and not a crusade...:rolleyes:) is based on faulty premises, that a) wolves always wish (or need) to lead the lynching, that b) the wolves only vote for innocents, that c) innocents are good at avoiding lynching other innocents, that d) the seer doesn't do her/his job.

An example: let's say we have two villagers. Villager A has been a strong advocat of two lynches which both have turned out innocents. Villager B has voted both times for a person who has not been lynched as B has been against the tide going for those lynched innocents.

Now which one is more probably a wolf? I'd put my money on B.

If we dilute ("homeopathisize" :p) Menel's suggestions into "we should be aware of people who might give a little nudge here and there" like Legate seems to be doing, then we're of course making more sense, but that's actually only saying "look around" which I think we all try to do. Although we still face a problem which is that it is basically impossible for an ordo to see "a purposeful knowledge-based nudge" from "trying to make even a weak point based on hunches".

[Nogrod]

Well then...

So G55 has done some interesting turns and the way Shasta analyzed it makes her look quite guilty indeed. The problem with lynching G55 is that she seems to be ending up as a D1 lynch a little too often as a "usual suspect".

Pitch could receive my vote as well as I think his vote was based on "forced reasons" - which always alarm me, especially when an intelligent and experienced player does them. I mean I would have thought an innocent Pitch would have thought of the best of the village more and not vote someone on such bad / non-existent reasons.

Others than the two I seem to have no good reasons to vote at the moment.

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, I have to leave for work, and will be voting from my phone right as I walk in. Could someone be so kind as to give me a vote count? I'll slip an extra cupcake in with your morning mail!

[Nogrod]

I mean I would have thought an innocent Pitch would have thought of the best of the village more and not vote someone on such bad / non-existent reasons. What I mean is: when you know yourself your reasons are bad or non-existent, then you also know your probability of hitting a wolf is poor. And in that situation an innocent should always think twice whether s/he isn't helping lynching an innocent. For a wolf the quality or existence of your reasons doesn't matter as a wolf knows what s/he is doing.

[Nogrod]

Could someone be so kind as to give me a vote count? I'll slip an extra cupcake in with your morning mail!Just a few posts above yours... post #71.

[Nogrod]

Twenty minutes. Where are you people?

Any new ideas, anyone?

[Nogrod]

Should I take it then that G55 or Pitch is a wolf and the mates are now hanging around not willing to take side hoping they will not be forced to make a move (to try and avoid a lynch of their mate if s/he's eventually lynched, or not willing to cast the first stone as there is still hope someone else will be lynched - but would hjoin the wagon if the case is lost?)?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, Nog's latter posts actually sound very moderate and he has a point (even though he's reiterating what e.g. I think Zil or who it was already said about the situation of that hypothetical Day 4). That makes me discard the idea of voting him now. If I were to choose from the other people who already have votes, then G55 might be an option, probably the best one. But I don't know. Generally I must say I am rather clueless. Pitch was also a tad suspicious, but the cobbler-talk was equally strongly performed by Agan, so that makes them basically even, maybe the only "bonus" on Pitch's side was also the Kath-comment. But really probably G55 would be the best pick. I don't have any strong subject among the rest enough to push it (I'll be watching Lommy for the Menel-wagoning early on and the general "harshness", but maybe it was just the state of mind), as if it mattered at this point anyway...

EDIT: x-ed with several Nogs

[satansaloser2005]

Just a few posts above yours... post #71.

Whoops. Indeed. :rolleyes:

Pitch's vote made me uneasy when I saw it yesterday, and it still looks suspicious this morning. Thus, I believe I'm going to go with my (still a bit squeamish) gut.

++Pitch

I doubt I'll be back again before DL, but hopefully the lynch goes good. Until later, my dears! :)

[Nogrod]

Voting then...

++ Pitch


EDIT: X'd with Sally...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay... not sure what the vote count is now, but I think G55 is still more creepy than Pitch.

++Galadriel55

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[Nogrod]

I think G55 is still more creepy than Pitch.I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

I am not sure if that has happened so often in games I have been in, but might be so. Still... let's see.

[Kitanna]

“It was Nogrod!” Pitch cried. He pointed a finger to the retired barkeep.

“No, Inzil is in league with the wolves. He'll kill us all.” Menel jumped in.

All day the villagers had argued. Things had been bad when the food started to run out, but now it was getting worse. The Hobbits had come up with the terrible idea of killing the guilty party. A life for a life. Kitanna was dead and someone had to pay.

“Galadriel did it!” Inzil said, trying to keep his calm after unjust accusations from Menel.

“It had to have been Pitch. He's always been a shifty one.” G55 moved to quick to shift the blame from herself. “And he cheated me on a bushel of apples last spring.”

“You're all fools!” Pitch backed himself into a corner. “I didn't kill anybody. You all know it was Nogrod! He's been skulking around here ever since he retired.”

The others exchanged looks. A life for a life. Four Hobbits rushed Pitch, dragging him into the center of the room. They formed a circle around him, jeering, demanding he confess to his crime. Pitch continued to protest. He was innocent, they needed to look into their own hearts for the guilty.

No one was sure after that who threw the mug, but when it hit Pitch's head the villagers descended on him. Most of the blows landed on Pitch, but a few closest to him were struck in the close confines of the circle. They kicked and punched, someone even taking up another mug to smash into his head. After a few minutes they backed off. Pitch's blood pooled around him. His body lifeless.

Lommy and Kath searched his person. They found nothing. There was no baying from wolves outside, no thunder cracking to denote evil had died, no nothing. Pitch had died innocent.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Glirdan
G55
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Lommy
Inzil
Aganzir
Sally
Kath

Night 2 Begins
Wolves, seer, ranger, and cobbler, PM your picks. Everyone else, sleep.

[Kitanna]

Inzil stayed late to clean up the mess left by the unfortunate Pitch's death. There was no need for the villagers to be reminded of their tragic mistake. However, the blood stain wasn't coming up out of the wood despite all his vigorous scrubbing. A rug of sorts would need to be put down before tomorrow.

The door to the tavern opened. The night air stuck in Inzil's throat. The sheer bitterness of it seized his lungs. This weather was too cold for decent Hobbitfolk to live in.

“We're closed and you know it,” he said to the intruder. His eyes never left the blood stain, his hands continuing their work.

“Won't you even serve us a mug of hot cider on a cold night like this?” Three pairs of snow covered Hobbit feet circled Inzil.

He got to his feet and shook his rag in their faces. “Go home to your families! How can you want hot cider or anything else after what we done to poor Pitch today. Get out of here.”

One of the intruders grabbed hold of Inzil's feet, wrestling him to the ground. When he was down another grabbed hold of his feet. The third grabbed a stray scarf and slipped it around Inzil's neck.

The barkeep spurted and choked, trying to kick off his attackers. As the life drained away his fight slowed. As the last breath escaped, there was a brief moment when a third eye shown on his forehead. The three dragged him out into the snow to leave him for their wolfy compatriots.

They went home content in the knowledge they had killed the seer.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Glirdan
G55
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Lommy
Aganzir
Sally
Kath

Day 2 Begins
If you did not vote yesterday and do not vote again today you will be modfired

[Nogrod]

Uh-oh. That was bad news...

Thinking positively, there should be a hint of some sort, probably clear enough in Zil's posting on D1 as otherwise the wolves are too darn lucky.

I'm going to look for something in there and suggest a few more pairs of eyes do the same so that we miss nothing.

[Nogrod]

Well, there goes the optimism...

I can't see an obvious reason for the wolves to pick Zil except that he was non-controversial and not suspected in any major way by anyone - and his early vote for G55 doesn't stand out in any way.

He did defend ("defend" may be a too strong word here though) Menel, Agan and Kath to some degree by kind of questioning the validity of some suspicions thrown at the three. He seemed to switch his mind somewhat on Pitch and me (first thinking Pitch's suspicion on Menel and Kath and his vote on me looked bad and then later saying his vote on me looked something he'd consider following - but that G55 looked worse).

The strongest there was seems to be his concern on behalf of Menel - like these (two different times): Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat. The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon.So he at least was concerned about the suspicions on Menel which could indicate towards Menel being dreamt of innocent (it might be a decent seer pick as he probably hasn't ever played with Menel before). It could, but does it? Dunno.

[Nerwen]

Zilanalysis

#4. IC banter.

#16. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670699&postcount=16) Agrees with Kath that the Cobbler is particularly dangerous. Disagrees with Pitch that Menel's "obvious" advice on wolf-catching is particularly suspicious (using the phrase "I don't see that" –a possible hint?). Approves of Pitch being vocal, however. Points out that the cobbler needs to avoid Night-kills– this was a response to the exchange between Kath (#11) (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670693&postcount=11), Agan (#12) (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670694&postcount=12)and Pitch (#13) (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670696&postcount=13). In context, it doesn't seem a particularly "Captain Obvious" statement at all– which is interesting since later it became something of an issue.


#32. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670715&postcount=32) IC banter. Responds to G55's and my own comments about Menel (#25 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670708&postcount=25), #26 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670709&postcount=26)): Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat. Tells G55 (again in response to #26) that he recalls Agan calling the Cobbler "she" before.


#39. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670723&postcount=39) Accepts my pointing out (#33) that G55 and my posts commenting on Menel's "obviousness" actually crossed. Accepts Menel's clarification at #38. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670722&postcount=38)


#55 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670744&postcount=55). (responding to Legate): Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.
Further comments that "The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon."

Disagrees with Pitch that Kath's question at #19 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670702&postcount=19) is suspicious. Is somewhat wary of Pitch.

Responding to Shasta at #53 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670741&postcount=53), says he too is "rather bothered" by G55, and may vote her.

Also in response to Shasta, who asks why those who "pounced" on Menel for "stating the obvious" didn't do the same to Zil (see #16.), says, "I don't know either. Are you trying to incite them to do so?"


#56. Vote-post.
Ok. It's bedtime, and with the morning madness that is my weekday routine, I may or may not make back before DL.

I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there. However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.

++G55

Choose well.

Conclusion: Well, it certainly looks pretty straightforward: his dream was most likely either G55 (wolf) or Menel (innocent). The good news is that it could not have been Pitch, since he is somewhat suspicious of him.

The voting-pattern yesterDay also strongly suggests G55 might be a wolf, rescued from the gallows by her comrades. (However, we should bear in mind that, by definition, this would be a perfect framing-opportunity.)

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.; edit 2: typo.

[Nogrod]

One thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of Menel: his quite strong statement "more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat" comes already at time when Pitch has suspected Menel, Nerwen has commented quite neutrally on it, and G55 has carried off with it. So there were actually only two suspicions on Menel at that time and he went that strong against them?

Another thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of G55 as a wolf: with the paranoic eyes of the wolves at Night searching for seer-hints, they might have read Zil saying "more than one person homing on it..." in the following way: "first suspector okay, the second one - aka G55 - is a salivating beast". That would be strongly said, like a seer might do it. And Zil went to vote G55.


EDIT: X'd with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

I'll post D1 voting and then I'll be off for some time. Be back later.

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 2
Agan -> Pitch 2
Lommy -> Agan
Sally -> Pitch 3
Nog -> Pitch 4
Legate -> G55 3

From the Pitch-lynchers Sally's and my votes stand up, clearly, whereas G55's and Agan's votes are more safe. So if someone tried to save a wolf-G55, it most probably would be Sally or me (which I am not). Also if G55 is a wolf then Legate looks quite good as that would have been extremely risky at the last minutes as he couldn't have been sure someone wouldn't come in and still vote for G55 (it was 8 minutes before the DL).

But there's one major "if" there: if G55 is a wolf. Now that we don't know, but if we'd have to vote now I'd be inclined to test that "if".

[Nerwen]

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.

[Galadriel55]

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

With my - and the wolves' - knowledge (ie that I am innocent), yesterDay was a field day for the wolves. They had two innocent bandwagons to choose from.

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 (2)
Agan -> Pitch (2)
Lommy -> Agan
Sally -> Pitch (3)
Nog -> Pitch (xed with sally) (4)
Legate -> G55 (xed with Nog) (3)

(innocents in italics)

When looking at the tally objectively, I'd suspect myself as well, except that fortunately I'm not schizophrenic. It's really hard to analyse, because both bandwagons were against innocents. Instead of doing this by the tally, I'll go back and try to see when the suspicion on Pitch (possibly myself too, I'll see if there's some worthwhile suspicion) began to rise in relation to the tally. And I'll also comment on some things that were said yesterDay.

Edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer
Now, why do you say that?

[satansaloser2005]

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

And that's an interesting choice of words....

[Galadriel55]

Now, why do you say that?

Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.

...and really only gives a solid statement on Pitch (and perhaps Nogrod, but as it's based on an emoticon...) while also saying this -

- which is extremely confusing; if you don't agree with [b]Pitch's perspective (hence being suspicious of him on your list), how can his vote be okay?

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

Fair enough, but then I'm a little confused by what you find suspicious. Is it just that Kath came out of the gate asking questions about the role, or what?

I think Agan was referring to herself when she said “hypocritical”; she called out Kath for bringing up the cobbler, but admitted that she does it herself when she plays in a game with a cobbler, which makes her hypocritical.

Okay. I had to check back as to what Menel actually said, and the following is the thing making me uneasy with him:

Now, first of all, if there are three Days we only lynch innocents - and the wolves score effectively during the Night - we have basically lost as the wolves only need to ask for the cobbler to vote with them on D4. In case we had chances on D4 (like ranger made a succesful save one Night) then I think it is essential we look at everyone as thoroughly as we can because that lynch decides whether the game continues or whether we lose. So any "let's lynch the influential people" default-setting is basically dangerous rather than helpful.

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

The way you flip-flop about him, too – you defend him in one post, but then list a number of reasons (f.ex. #74) for why you could suspect him, and back and forth.

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

That's quite close. Mostly Day 2, though. Wanna continue the pattern? :rolleyes:



PITCH SUSPICION - well, it kind of just flew up right after Pitch's vote. And then people started voting for him one after the other. What alerts me is that Nog was the second last (crossed with third last and last) person to vote, though he flew at Pitch the moment he (ie Pitch) wrote his pre-vote suspicion on him.

There's not much to be gained by analysing it this way, I see.

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.


Edit: xed with sally

[Galadriel55]

And that's an interesting choice of words....

What do you find interesting in it?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen
Now, why do you say that?
Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.
G55, short of a Day One reveal, I don't think *anyone* has *ever* been killed on Night Two "solely because he was the Seer". Sorry, but this is just confusing the issue.

Now, in your previous post, you said this:
I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer
*Here* you are pretty clear that you don't believe Seerish-ness was a significant factor at all, and *that's* what I was asking about.

[Nerwen]

...But anyway, I have to get some sleep. See you all later!

[Glirdan]

What do you find interesting in it?

Oh you know, couldn't have anything to do with your use of the word savage. Definitely didn't stand out to me either. :rolleyes:

And yet, as much as it stood out, the comment itself strikes me as a very common G55 thing to say, having seen her and many other innocents (myself included) lynched early in the game due to the same problem: wording. And yet, in such a game, where we cannot read each others emotions, faces and body language, it is the only the factual thing we have to go on. But it still stands out to me as a very innocent G55 thing to do.

Her voting placement (which I apologize for my lack of yesterDay) along with that of Noggins looks rather bad on both of them. Perhaps taking a closer look at the voting and timing would be beneficial to us, as I seem to recall a slew of votes all roughly at the same time. Or maybe that's just my time meld acting up again......

Anyways, I must be off. I will be on periodically to comment as I can, but today(RL) commences my five days without rest period of the show.....again.....

[Galadriel55]

Oh you know, couldn't have anything to do with your use of the word savage. Definitely didn't stand out to me either. :rolleyes:

I honestly don't get what's so special about comparing the loss of a Seer on Night 2 to a savage blow.

Savage [meaning#2]: barbarous, beastly, bestial, bloodthirsty, bloody, brutal, brutish, cruel, devilish, diabolical, ferocious, fierce, harsh, inhuman, merciless, murderous, pitiless, ravening, ruthless, sadistic, vicious

Don't you agree that the loss of our Seer can be called brutal, cruel, murderous, or harsh perhaps? Honestly, people! :rolleyes:

[Kath]

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Originally Posted by Inzil
Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.
Now this is interesting. My reading of that quote from Inzil makes me think that it's G55 that Inzil is concentrating on here, not Menel. I would say this is more adding suspicion to G55 than trying to make Menel look innocent.

I will go do the ubiquitous Inzil analysis. The more eyes on his posts the better with all this talk of misrepresenting words going on!

[Kath]

Post 1:
I can't see anything in this that would suggest Seer. Given the current furore over G55's use of 'savage' - if we're picking at everything - Inzil says it here.

Post 2:
Apart from that sentence: 'meh, I don't see that' in response to Pitch again clues are well hidden if they're there. Does appear to be defending Menel, or at least trying to lessen or dampen suspicious of him. Also deflecting suspicion from Pitch arising as a result of his (Inzil's) disagreement with him over Menel.

Post 3:
Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.
Menel could be seen as suspicious but the people bandwaggoning him are much more suspicious. Is my reading of that. Suggesting perhaps not having dreamed Menel. He has merited a comment - if you are the Seer and you've dreamed of an innocent and you're trying to leave clues, this isn't enough to later use as evidence.

G55, Pitch and to a degree Agan were the people who had so far had something to say against Menel. Less so Agan, as she wrote that he could be 'either' and that she was waiting to make her mind up about him.

Post 4:
The above being said, Inzil is ignoring the stating the obvious from Menel. Or actually agreeing with it. That is quite a definitive support for Menel there.

(Aside: long Pitch list post here. Backtracks on Menel suspicion. Only says about G55 that she has made a content free first post. Then notes this was written before she added suspicion on Menel. Doesn't then follow this up with anything within this post about G55, but does suspect Nog as a result of his catch up with the thread. This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

Post 5:
Thinks Pitch voted suddenly for Nog and occasionally wonders about Pitch. States that he is bothered by G55 and will likely vote for her. Looks like there's some suspicion of Shasta for acting as though he is trying to get others to bandwagon Inzil.

Post 6:
I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there.
This sentence makes me less suspicious of Pitch as it might suggest Inzil had dreamed of Pitch and therefore his lead wouldn't be a negative one. However, as an innocent doesn't actually 'know' anything I think this would be a misleading clue for the Seer to lead if he had dreamed of Pitch.

The next sentence:
However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.
This is stronger. May be more likely to be the dream.

My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!

(Aside: Ps. a message for Lommy who I know will appreciate it: you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet! <-- This was our favourite line!!)

If the dream choices are Menel and G55 I'm not sure I've really answered the question of which is more likely. Feels like G55, and the suspicion there was consistent.

[Galadriel55]

Now this is interesting. My reading of that quote from Inzil makes me think that it's G55 that Inzil is concentrating on here, not Menel. I would say this is more adding suspicion to G55 than trying to make Menel look innocent.

Well, I know that Inzil couldn't have dreamt me, because then he wouldn't have voted me. But to explain my point about the quote, he dismisses his first suspicion on me as a perhaps, maybe not. But the second one, concerning Menel, is what turns the tide.

(Aside: long Pitch list post here. Backtracks on Menel suspicion. Only says about G55 that she has made a content free first post. Then notes this was written before she added suspicion on Menel. Doesn't then follow this up with anything within this post about G55, but does suspect Nog as a result of his catch up with the thread. This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

Except that Pitch is a dead ordo.



I'm not feeling very well at the moment (or, rather, am feeling very unwell), so I don't think I can participate toDay as much as I would have liked to. I'll be around, but not as much as I would have liked.



EDIT: to add to my first point, if Inzil wanted to hint at my being evil, he would not have dismissed the first point so lightly. Instead, he puts emphasis on me questioning Menel - and votes me because of that, not because of the she-cobbler case or whatever else.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

He did defend ("defend" may be a too strong word here though) Menel, Agan and Kath to some degree by kind of questioning the validity of some suspicions thrown at the three. He seemed to switch his mind somewhat on Pitch and me (first thinking Pitch's suspicion on Menel and Kath and his vote on me looked bad and then later saying his vote on me looked something he'd consider following - but that G55 looked worse).

The strongest there was seems to be his concern on behalf of Menel - like these (two different times): So he at least was concerned about the suspicions on Menel which could indicate towards Menel being dreamt of innocent (it might be a decent seer pick as he probably hasn't ever played with Menel before). It could, but does it? Dunno.

I am not really sure if this isn't a bit stretched. What Inzil said about Menel does not sound very strong to me (at least what you quote - but I have to reread it myself to see what he said otherwise). But again, for sure, a Seer should leave hints (as certainly he would know) - but possibly on Day 1 they do not need to be so strong. If he dreamed of an innocent, he could have just listed that person among the bunch of random people he trusts. If he dreamed of a Wolf, then he might have voiced a mild suspicion.

I think I'll reread his posts myself to see what I can make of it. Also, there is still the question whether it was "random", or whether it was because the WWs actually spotted some Seerishness. In any case, it is clear that the WWs do want to kill the Seer, but then again, on first Night... I mean, that would have to be really good spotting on their part.

Another thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of G55 as a wolf: with the paranoic eyes of the wolves at Night searching for seer-hints, they might have read Zil saying "more than one person homing on it..." in the following way: "first suspector okay, the second one - aka G55 - is a salivating beast". That would be strongly said, like a seer might do it. And Zil went to vote G55.
I think this, however, is certainly stretched.

Basically, from what was said this far, I am somewhat worried about toDay depending a lot on G55 being a Wolf. G55 is acting very "hedgehogishly" (defensively), and I think she could act like that if she is a Wolf under such suspicion - but there is truth to that it would be a great frame-up too, seeing she was the second runner.

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

With my - and the wolves' - knowledge (ie that I am innocent), yesterDay was a field day for the wolves. They had two innocent bandwagons to choose from.
(...)
When looking at the tally objectively, I'd suspect myself as well, except that fortunately I'm not schizophrenic. It's really hard to analyse, because both bandwagons were against innocents.
Okay, those are sounding more like Wolfish - especially the first one insisting, basically, that the single reason of Inzil's death was to lay a false trail. First, I doubt the WWs would have had just that as a motive; and most of all, if the reason was to just frame up G55, why Inzil, then? I mean, is there any logical connection between those? If you eliminate the Seer-reason, then why Inzil and not somebody else? You know what I mean?

However, there is some stuff G55 says which makes it sound genuine, and which also a desperate innocent could say, like this reaction to Shasta:

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

or even this about Nog:

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

And I don't think the "savage" quote has much of a merit either. After all, people usually *do* say something when a Seer dies. Of course it can be faked, but I certainly don't think a Wolf would intentionally say such a thing in the sense of "mwahaha, that was soo savage! Did you see? I love blood!" - or whichever way it was that sally meant it.

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.
This however again does ring my bells - because it looks a bit like turning suspicion to somebody else in the village.

This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

(...)

My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!

Wait, I don't get it... isn't Pitch dead and innocent???

Altogether, major observations: I am not sure what to make of Nog today, his activity in looking for clues about Inzil's death is sort of mingled with some rather confusing conclusions and most of all, certain "suggestive behavior", it seems to me. Nerwen comes and has some sharp points which look genuine. I am not sure about G55. Of course, if Nog is a Wolf, then yesterDay might have been a really tight escepe from the noose based on a fellow-save (and the same goes if Sally was the Wolf, or even if both of them were, since they crossposted), but then again, one could ask, if G55 is under suspicion (but then again, Day 1 suspicions might not mean much), would it be worth it for the WWs to save her one Night and still having her threatened (possibly even more) the next Day?

I will check on Zil's posts and be around...

EDIT: x-ed with G55.

[Galadriel55]

Basically, from what was said this far, I am somewhat worried about toDay depending a lot on G55 being a Wolf. G55 is acting very "hedgehogishly" (defensively), and I think she could act like that if she is a Wolf under such suspicion - but there is truth to that it would be a great frame-up too, seeing she was the second runner.

You'd act hedgehogishly too you it was your name instead of mine in yesterDay's tally.

(I'm doing it again, aren't I?:rolleyes:)

Truth be told, when I look at my posts from the side, I see exactly what you mean. I guess I'm too frustrated with the village and my own inability to prove my innocence in a way other that by dying.

Okay, those are sounding more like Wolfish - especially the first one insisting, basically, that the single reason of Inzil's death was to lay a false trail. First, I doubt the WWs would have had just that as a motive;

But it has happened before, especially with the first kill. In my past games more often that not the first kill was either a trailless one, one with a very confusing trail (eg someone who suspects half the village), or one who suspects an innocent. By killing the last kind of person, the wolves leave the village with the choice: to dismiss it as a fake-trail kill, or to analyse it based on the wolves thinking that person was the Seer - and since the village can't just throw the second option out they follow the false lead. (meaning that if A suspected B and was killed, possibly for Seer reasons, it would make sense that B could be a wolf).

Just why am I explaining all this? You know it already. The wolves could have a misleading trail as the chief motive.

...and most of all, if the reason was to just frame up G55, why Inzil, then? I mean, is there any logical connection between those? If you eliminate the Seer-reason, then why Inzil and not somebody else? You know what I mean?

I doubt that framing me in particular was the main motivation, but it's the easiest to do. You just have to look at the tally to suspect me already. Inzil was the first to vote me. But even so, voting me was probably a bonus to it - once again, I'm not that special that the wolves want to frame me that badly. They just want to frame an innocent. And Inzil very conveniently suspected me, ie an innocent. He's the person A from the above scenario.

[Thinlómien]

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.Bussing is what it looks like. On the other hand, maybe that's why it's something else. But if I had to say just based on those few posts, I'd say bussing.

Galadriel's posts today are pretty fishy. Just saying.

I honestly don't get what's so special about comparing the loss of a Seer on Night 2 to a savage blow.A savage blow would have been much better than a savage blow, a really savage blow.

(Aside: Ps. a message for Lommy who I know will appreciate it: you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet! <-- This was our favourite line!!)Noooooo! last time Agan posted that I had that incredibly annoying song stuck in my head all morning and now I will have it all evening. *hits head against wall and starts to listen to Laibach*

Next up: replying to stuff from late yesterDay. There really haven't been too many posts in this game...

[Aganzir]

Two of my favourite players gone (and partly because of me - sorry Pitch!). Where's the fun now? I quit.

Also, sorry G55, I lied. I'm not the seer.

I've had a fantastic day complete with psychopatic coworkers, meeting people who've done bad things and whom bad things have happened to, and sexual harassment. I'm drained and might go to sleep rather early.

By the way Nog, I saw you smoking in front of Kaisla just an hour ago. Whenever you look out the bus/car window when passing a pub, expect Nog to be there. ;)

Also, for the sake of fairness I should tell you that while tortoise hunting yesterday, Lommy walked in on me sending a werewolf related PM (the contents of which she didn't see before I shooed her off). I may tell you who it was for when the game is over - before that, you're free to guess if you'd like. ;)

Anyway.

I see Zilly's point in defending Menel and I don't think it necessarily means he dreamt of him. It's just, Menel looked like such an easy target, so even if only a couple of people had suspected him so far, it had the potential to develop into something more serious.

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).
To be honest, he did not leave a trail in your direction. If he hadn't been the seer, his death would've looked none the worse for you. I find it extremely unlikely the wolves killed him to frame you, which you seem to be suggesting here.

I think G55's posts about Inzil's death look like damage control at the moment.

It seems Shasta hasn't only been misquoting me but also G55.

There's also the possibility, even if slight, that the cobbler thwarted Inzil's dream on night 1. Unless I'm totally utterly mistaken, she was allowed to try her luck at the very beginning.

Ps. I love blood.

[Kath]

Oh MASSIVE headdesk about Pitch - sorry! I caught up on yesterDay but clearly had a stupid moment as I was thinking about Inzil.

Well, then, as Pitch is innocent ... G55 is more likely to be a wolf based on what I said earlier. Hopefully that now makes a bit more sense.

I will try to develop more of a brain for future use!

[Kath]

As I'm clearly not with it ... I will vote now.

++Galadriel55

Based on my analysis of Inzil, the only real clues he seemed to leave were about Menel and G55. The ones about G55 seemed clearer and the ones about Menel pointed to his innocence anyway.

[Thinlómien]

(I'll be watching Lommy for the Menel-wagoning early on and the general "harshness", but maybe it was just the state of mind)More like, it's how I think but normally I don't phrase stuff so bluntly. ;)

If Galadriel is a wolf, then Sally's vote is also worth raising eyebrows at, not only Nog's.

I will try to develop more of a brain for future use!<3

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm not going to be around much today as I have a lot of real life things to do.

As such, I agree on G55; she does grasp at straws for suspicions and the voting pattern for yesterday is suspicious and implicates Sally as well.

++Galadriel55

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so I have re-read Zil's posts and it indeed seems as if, if he dreamt of anybody at all, it was most likely Menel. Of the living people he interacted with/mentioned in some way that it gives merit, apart from him, he mentions G55 negatively, but only once (in relation to his vote), and Kath with sort of nothing-this-way-or-another-seeming statement.

I doubt that framing me in particular was the main motivation, but it's the easiest to do. You just have to look at the tally to suspect me already. Inzil was the first to vote me. But even so, voting me was probably a bonus to it - once again, I'm not that special that the wolves want to frame me that badly. They just want to frame an innocent. And Inzil very conveniently suspected me, ie an innocent. He's the person A from the above scenario.
Well that's again the same thing, it does not really convince me. And so once again, now - are you now saying that you are not so special that the WWs want to frame you, or are you saying that the WWs wanted to frame you, and therefore they attacked Inzil? (Where I still do not entirely perceive the logic.) Now I am really confused as to what you are saying...

There's also the possibility, even if slight, that the cobbler thwarted Inzil's dream on night 1. Unless I'm totally utterly mistaken, she was allowed to try her luck at the very beginning.
That of course cannot be ruled out, but then again I wonder if even in such a case, the Seer might not have felt obliged to post a hint of "I had no dream toNight". But okay, maybe that's nonsense, because the one person who could decipher it more easily would be the cobbler, and that's probably not the person the Seer would want to know about his identity (even though he couldn't be targeted again by the cobbler, still, the cobbler would probably want to contact the Wolves, and tell them about who the Seer was, if he/she knew the identity of the Seer).

EDIT: x-ed with two votes! and Lommy

[Thinlómien]

After rereading Zil's posts I would say it's more likely he dreamt Menel than Gal, and also possible that he dreamt someone else entirely, but didn't speak a word. (For example the person hadn't said anything he could comment on before he had to vote and leave.) One thing that speaks in Menel-dream's favour is that he was the first person Zil mentioned.

[Galadriel55]

A savage blow would have been much better than a savage blow, a really savage blow.

I still don't get it. *headdesk* What's wrong with mourning the Seer and saying that it is a great loss for the village? :(

Also, sorry G55, I lied. I'm not the seer.

No way!

To be honest, he did not leave a trail in your direction.

If he did not, why are people talking about it? ;) An ordo could look at it and see that he voted for me before he was killed. Even if he was not the seer - just see my reply to Legate.

Ps. I love blood.

Who would have though so? :p




NOGALYSIS

(smileys removed)

First post does not yield anything.

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1?

EDIT: Xd with Legate

That sounds like Nog.

Now where is your commitment with 40 posts on D1? Or anyone elses'?

Just asking before you decide to make the lack of committed cases reason to vote... I mean you don't have twelve votes but just one...

PS. I'm going to sleep as well pretty soon, but will still participate and vote later...

The middle part is a bit confusing... Nog is saying that Pitch's reasoning is not the best because it applies to everyone?

And this is also the post-with-the-smiley-that-looks-weird-to-me.

#49- Whoa! That's overreacting, if you ask me.

I don't think Pitch used the 40 posts to "partially justify his vote", as Nog says. Pitch explained clearly why he's voting Nog: because of not committing to a suspicion.

Then, his long speech where he talks about "trying out something" doesn't make much sense either. This sounds more like a guilty Nog, because that's usually when he doesn't sound logical to me.

#71 - thoughts on voting. Says will not vote Menel. Thinks either I or Pitch could be wolves, but probably not both.

#74 - the reply to Menel. See my post from before for comments:

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

The way you flip-flop about him, too – you defend him in one post, but then list a number of reasons (f.ex. #74) for why you could suspect him, and back and forth.


#75 - debates between lynching me (for my turns) or Pitch (for forced vote reasons)

#77 - elaborates on his suspicion on Pitch

#80 -

Should I take it then that G55 or Pitch is a wolf and the mates are now hanging around not willing to take side hoping they will not be forced to make a move (to try and avoid a lynch of their mate if s/he's eventually lynched, or not willing to cast the first stone as there is still hope someone else will be lynched - but would hjoin the wagon if the case is lost?)?

Interesting, interesting. Not sure what to make of this. On one hand, he does have a point, but on the other, he's hanging back himself - waiting for the others to go first? But the reasons for him hanging back cannot be the ones he lists, because neither me nor Pitch are wolves. If he's a wolf, though, he'd probably want to take the wagon that would make him look better. If he's an innocent, why on earth was he hanging back himself?

#83 - votes Pitch.

#85 - tells Legate he didn't vote me because I usually get lynched early because I'm always "like that". Which I guess is true. But then what was the point of saying several times that I am suspicious, he could vote for me, etc., to then say something similar to what he said about Menel - I get lynched early too often for these reasons?

DAY 2

#81, 90 - looks at Zil. Thinks he could have dream Menel.

#92 - gives support for Menel's dream to be either Menel or me. The support is kinda... stretchy, though. Especially on me being a wolf, I daresay.

#93 - speculates on the possibilities of "if G55 is a wolf". His thoughts here are based on logical argument. Considers "testing that 'if'".



Conclusion: Nog doesn't sit right with me. Definitely someone I would consider voting. I would expect Nog to be more logical in the places I've mentioned, more decisive in his suspicions (well, do you or don't you?), and more calm when he is suspected. He seemed very eager to avoid votes (sorry for the bad phrasing), with that smile to Pitch right before the vote when what he says sounds like something of a completely opposite mood, and then he tried to ridicule Pitch's reasoning, which gives the impression of "I don't want you to think he's right -- Badly!". He sounds kinda desperate in there, and illogical. I don't like that.

So yeah, I'd be very wary of Noggins.


Edit: xed since 110 - oi, that's a lot of posts

[Galadriel55]

Well that's again the same thing, it does not really convince me. And so once again, now - are you now saying that you are not so special that the WWs want to frame you, or are you saying that the WWs wanted to frame you, and therefore they attacked Inzil? (Where I still do not entirely perceive the logic.) Now I am really confused as to what you are saying...

Well, I'm not here to convince you about something I can only speculate about. I can only explain myself better to make you understand my point, but not to convince you. Unless you're a wolf, then you know as much as I do about what really went on in their minds last Night.

I was saying that wolves like to kill people that lead the village down a false trail to an innocent - any innocent (not specifically me because I'm me, just any innocent that suits them best). Other factors play a role as well, but let's not overcomplicate it. In this case, this "any innocent" happens to be me. So yes, they framed me, but not to frame me specifically, just to frame an innocent.

Is this clearer?

[Galadriel55]

If you're debating about Inzil's dream or fellow wolves saving me yesterDay, think of this:

-knowing that I am likely to go down in the first couple Days - which he does, would Inzil have picked me as his N1 dream? He's not stupid; he knows I am a waste of dream unless I actually survive Day 1 and am suspicious enough to merit one.

-knowing that I wouldn't last anyways, and they could be placed under suspicion for that, would the mates risk saving me? It would be better for them to bus me, unless they are darned nice mates.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

More like, it's how I think but normally I don't phrase stuff so bluntly. ;)

How nice ;)

If Galadriel is a wolf, then Sally's vote is also worth raising eyebrows at, not only Nog's.
For sure, and like I have noted already before, they actually cross-posted at that point - so theoretically, it could even be possible for them to both be Wolves. But that is a lot of speculation already, and it all comes back to G55's role anyway.

I was saying that wolves like to kill people that lead the village down a false trail to an innocent - any innocent (not specifically me because I'm me, just any innocent that suits them best). Other factors play a role as well, but let's not overcomplicate it. In this case, this "any innocent" happens to be me. So yes, they framed me, but not to frame me specifically, just to frame an innocent.

Is this clearer?
Not very much. I get the general concept - that much is clear to me. But now it seems you are actually saying something different again. So what you are saying now is: the WWs wanted to frame any innocent, so they killed Zil. Not because they would think he was the Seer, but to frame any innocent. And because you were suspected by him, it is you who is being framed? Do I understand it right?

EDIT: x-ed with G55

[Aganzir]

Okay I'm getting pretty sure Kath (this trumpet makes you my girl) is innocent. :p

I also doubt Nog is a wolf. If he was, someone quieter than Inzil would have been killed. ;)

I have no read on sally and Glirdan. I may vote for one of them if they keep being quiet (except we can't really afford to waste lynches) even though I understand it's because of RL reasons. But then we can't afford to keep submarines around either. Decisions decisions.

Poor Lommy has trouble with her gut. Apart from that, she doesn't look overly evil if not particularly innocent either.

I'm curious about Menel and his vote for G55. He doesn't comment on the Inzil episode in any way but votes for her because As such, I agree on G55; she does grasp at straws for suspicions and the voting pattern for yesterday is suspicious and implicates Sally as well.
I don't know, I just would've sort of expected the person whom some are ready to declare a known innocent to say something. If he's innocent and thinks Inzil dreamed of him, it's not plausible to suspect G55 because of Inzil's comments... but then, he voted for her because of her own behaviour. I don't know if my ramblings make any sense.

Legate rubs me in the wrong way based solely on a gut feeling. It's not like he looked suspicious, and I'd like to think he's innocent, but there's something off about him that makes me wary. I can't really specify and I don't know if it's anything, but I'll be keeping an eye on him and will try to elaborate later.

Then there's Shasta who's misinterpreted things G55 and I have said, but I don't think he looks very wolfish for it.

And Nerwen who's been slipping under my radar and is automatically suspicious because of that because nothing is sneakier than Nerwen as a wolf.

If he did not, why are people talking about it? An ordo could look at it and see that he voted for me before he was killed. Even if he was not the seer - just see my reply to Legate.
Because he was the seer. But regardless of whether you're a wolf or not, the pack couldn't have known he was the seer. If the wolves had wanted to frame someone, they would've picked a kill that had more pronounced negative opinions than Inzil had.

I might be willing to try our luck with lynching G55... but I'm also aware she'd be a splendid staged lynch for the wolves if she's innocent. I'm going to bed pretty soon and will be back to vote and, hopefully, to post more in the morning.

[Galadriel55]

I know I'm suspicious, since I usually gather suspicion faster than a bucket gathers rainwater during a storm. There's really no way I would be able to convince you that I'm an innocent, in any way other than being toDay's lynch. But I want you to have this in mind: the wolves will benefit more from my lynch than the innocents.

If I'm lynched, the wolves will be having a nice party this Night, since their ploy worked, and because of how little this would benefit the villagers. If, by some miraculous chance, I am not lynched, then I'm likely to be lynched the next Day so no big deal. And anyways, I'm taking the attention off them.

Meanwhile, from the innocents' side: if I'm lynched, my death won't give you anything. I am not a wolf, hence all the possibilities you've come up with for yesterDay's vote tally will fly to pieces; as I said, there were two innocent bandwagons - and try to find who's the wolf in that. I wish you luck. You can't get information from my death, only a loss of an extra person in the innocent's count. You can't even judge who's innocent based on how hard they pushed my lynch, since I am genuinely suspicious and more innocents are likely to vote me than wolves.

The only thing you could possibly gain from my death is some clarity in the village. At least you won't waste your time on me and focus on the wolves - something I've been trying to make you do for the past half a Day, but the talk keeps returning to me. I guess it's a futile task to try and stop you from suspecting me while I'm still around. And I can't convince you not to lynch me, since, well, the suspicion and attention will not stop until I'm dead. Someone will always say "we should have lynched her".



Well, that's that. Think.

Edit: xed with Legate and Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

If you're debating about Inzil's dream or fellow wolves saving me yesterDay, think of this:

-knowing that I am likely to go down in the first couple Days - which he does, would Inzil have picked me as his N1 dream? He's not stupid; he knows I am a waste of dream unless I actually survive Day 1 and am suspicious enough to merit one
Well, I think that is not a very good point, to be honest.

-knowing that I wouldn't last anyways, and they could be placed under suspicion for that, would the mates risk saving me? It would be better for them to bus me, unless they are darned nice mates.
Whereas this is, yes, I have already been talking about that, too...

EDIT: x-ed since the end of the page

[Galadriel55]

Not very much. I get the general concept - that much is clear to me. But now it seems you are actually saying something different again. So what you are saying now is: the WWs wanted to frame any innocent, so they killed Zil. Not because they would think he was the Seer, but to frame any innocent. And because you were suspected by him, it is you who is being framed? Do I understand it right?

Yes and no, but basically yes. They saw the opportunity for a good kill - Inzil, who was not very outspoken in his opinions other than being bothered (multiple times) by me. Any kill the wolves make has a potential aim for a gifted (usually the Seer), so it would be natural to suspect the person who the killed person suspected - maybe the wolves thought Zil was a Seer who dreamed of Galwolf - regardless of whether he actually turns out to be Seer or not. So the wolves used this as an opportunity to frame me (and they would know that my position is already shaky based on the vote tally, so with this additional point against me they would be able to nicely lynch me toDay - and who could blame them, right?).

Because he was the seer. But regardless of whether you're a wolf or not, the pack couldn't have known he was the seer. If the wolves had wanted to frame someone, they would've picked a kill that had more pronounced negative opinions than Inzil had.

Whenever there's a kill, s/he's analysed for possible Seerness even if s/he isn't a Seer. Again, what I was saying to Legate in one of the previous posts - even if a kill looks like it has been made as a no-trace or a misleading-trace kill, there's always that possibility that thw wolves saw giftedness in that person. So that person's posts are always scrunitized for possible phrases the wolves could haveinterpreted as clues - regardless of the role of the dead person.

And again, framing me is convenient because I was already suspicious "just because", the vote tally spoke against my innocence, and it's just easy to lynch me. But the main reason still remains that I'm "just any inocent".

[satansaloser2005]

In the interest of not having another messy lynch, I think I'll keep Galadriel around for another Day. Among other things, it's fun to watch her stew. :smokin:


I'll be back with actual commentary in a bit.

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish

Menel - for toDay, because he seems the most likely seer dream. Although, like I said, it's also pretty likely Zil's dream was someone he could not really comment on since they had not contirbuted that far, which would suck.

Kath - I hate to give people the benefit of doubt because they are confused, but that kind of makes sense at this phase of the game where you have to narrow down the options, not reconsider everything.


Under Rudolph

Shasta and Nerwen - both their normal sneaky selves, I keep overlooking them for some unknown reason. Thy are elusive.

Sally - if Gal is a wolf, then she's suspicious, though.

Legate - yeah. Whoever said loud people are easier to read was obviously wrong.


Suspiciousish

Glirdan - mild bad vibes.

Galadriel - pretty fishy. But she's totally right about herself taking all the attention and that being very harmful if she's not a wolf herself.

Nogrod - awfully quick to throw Galadriel to the lynch block, which could make sense regardless of her role if he was a wolf himself. Just btw I didn't like Nerwen's "others, discuss this while I sit back and relax" comment, makes me suspect something fishy between Nerwie and Noggie actually.

Aganzir - she's enjoying herself too much to be completely innocent.


...that's all? Sick. I have a bad feeling this game will be a massacre unless someone else's brain works considerably better than mine which seems to be in a totally off-ww mode.


edit: xed with Sally and Gal

[Galadriel55]

Among other things, it's fun to watch her stew. :smokin:

Why don't you ask me to clarify once again why the wolves love to frame people?:rolleyes::D

[Nogrod]

G55: I'm okay with any suspicion you throw at me. It's fine and dandy because it's what this game is about: suspect and be suspected, be honest or try to bluff. No problem there. But I hope the next time you call me illogical you actually provide some proof for your claim for that's one thing I strongly deny - and logic or the absence of it can be seen by anyone quite easily as it is there for everyone to see.

Talking about G55 then... After reading the different versions of her "the wolves framed me" -explanation I'm a bit baffled about wht is the thing you G55 are trying make. Are you trying to say that you were the only innocent that suspected another innocent (except Pitch who's already dead) and therefore they picked Zil to frame you? You have been insisting that you are lynched early anyway, so why didn't the wolves trust on that too and frame someone else who's normally harder to lynch? I mean why kick a can that's already rolling down the slope?

It is quite evident that there is no easy or clear interpretation on hand for why the wolves killed Inzil out of everyone else, but as he was the seer indeed, we can't dismiss the possibility they did choose him for a reason. And the only decent reason in that direction (them thinking Zil the seer) seems to be that you G55 are one of them and they got upset.

That doesn't mean we "know" they tried to kill the seer, but if seership was their reason (the suspicion of him being the seer), then it's probably you G55. And I must say some of your posting toDay looks quite bothering in that respect.


PS. You have a nice new concept for making analyses of other people's posting: let's not quote what the analysed player says but let's quote our own comments on their posts... :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

maybe the wolves thought Zil was a Seer who dreamed of Galwolf - regardless of whether he actually turns out to be Seer or not. So the wolves used this as an opportunity to frame meWHAT? :smokin:

[Nogrod]

In the interest of not having another messy lynch, I think I'll keep Galadriel around for another Day. Among other things, it's fun to watch her stew. :smokin:So G55 and Sally. Who's the third one? :)

[Thinlómien]

maybe the wolves thought Zil was a Seer who dreamed of Galwolf - regardless of whether he actually turns out to be Seer or not. So the wolves used this as an opportunity to frame meWHAT? :smokin::D :D that whole paragraph was so confusing I didn't even try to understand it, but if you put it that way...

[Nogrod]

that whole paragraph was so confusing I didn't even try to understand it, but if you put it that way...Wwhat way would you put it? :)

[satansaloser2005]

Holy crap. And then I read the last few posts by the little gal and I'm wondering why we haven't killed her already. Or possibly sent her to an asylum. Either way, redacted, because....wow.


EDIT: x'd since Gal's 127, which shows how spaced off I am at the moment

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

WHAT? :smokin:

Oops! Okay, that is rather bad, to be honest. Like, I wouldn't bet just on that, but it's really rather unlikely wording indeed. I mean, after talking over a hundred times like G55 did, I can imagine one can make a slip such as this...

[Galadriel55]

Galadriel - pretty fishy. But she's totally right about herself taking all the attention and that being very harmful if she's not a wolf herself.

Let's make a compromise: you can lynch me as long as you concentrate on other players too toDay. And by "you" I mean the whole village. At least this way some good could be done.

Oh, I see some new posts. sally must be very happy.

But I hope the next time you call me illogical you actually provide some proof for your claim for that's one thing I strongly deny - and logic or the absence of it can be seen by anyone quite easily as it is there for everyone to see.

If you actually read my analysis, you'd see what exactly I was calling "illogical" and why I'm saying that. And I know that you pride yourself in being logical, which is exactly why I cannot dismiss things that don't make sense that are comming from you as easily as when they are coming from someone else.

Obviously. And sorry for the bad phrasing... and you Pitch know that too - that it was bad phrasing * which someone like you would not have used as a pretext to partly justify your vote...

Pitch clearly says that his reason for voting you is because you stand in the doorway between suspecting and not suspecting.

Forgive me my silly question, but where do I pick a suspection by you on Menel?

When you continued questioning his defense of the obvious truth.

Aren't you now just admitting you tried out something?

Pitch made a point against Menel. Others have repeated it. Is one now, by your logic, not allowed to make points against people?

Or should I vote you because you "made a point about Menel"? The reason behind that vote would be as good as yours...

Pitch gave an acceptible reason for his vote. This is absurd, and you have to know it.

Talking about G55 then... After reading the different versions of her "the wolves framed me" -explanation I'm a bit baffled about wht is the thing you G55 are trying make.

Bottom line is, I'm gonna vote the next person who asks.

No, I'm not serious, but geez people!

Are you trying to say that you were the only innocent that suspected another innocent (except Pitch who's already dead) and therefore they picked Zil to frame you?

Not you, Nog! Inzil is an innocent who suspected another innocent (me).

You have been insisting that you are lynched early anyway, so why didn't the wolves trust on that too and frame someone else who's normally harder to lynch? I mean why kick a can that's already rolling down the slope?

First of all, do you expect me to read the wolves' minds? I'm telling you I've been framed because that's what it is. What do you want me to do? Hack into a wolve's account and quote their Nightly discussions for you?

My guess is that they can't have two lynches at once. If the "someone else" was to be framed and lynched, I wouldn't be lynched. There are no double lynches. It's just easier to lynch me and less work to frame me.

It is quite evident that there is no easy or clear interpretation on hand for why the wolves killed Inzil out of everyone else, but as he was the seer indeed, we can't dismiss the possibility they did choose him for a reason. And the only decent reason in that direction (them thinking Zil the seer) seems to be that you G55 are one of them and they got upset.

Well then vote me.

PS. You have a nice new concept for making analyses of other people's posting: let's not quote what the analysed player says but let's quote our own comments on their posts... :rolleyes:

Do you have a problem with what I said in my post that I quoted? Or is it the quote tags around it that bother you?

WHAT?

Really? :rolleyes:

Wwhat way would you put it? :)

The sarcastic way.


sally, I hope you were entertained.

[Galadriel55]

PS: I'm going away for 3hours or so soon, but I'll be back to vote. Maybe I'll have time to slip in a post or two before I go.

[Galadriel55]

PPS: yes, now that I reread the "Galwolf" post, it doesn't make any sense, because I was so frustrated. But if you don't consider Agan referring to unknown roles as "she" a slip, you have to realise I'm not going to call myself "Galwolf" in the same post as I make a potential slip.

I don't even know by now if I wanted to write that sentence from the POV of wolves or innocents, but I ended up doing both, which indeed makes no sense whatsoever.

Honestly, though, I'm tired of this, so why don't you just lynch me and concentrate on other people?

[Galadriel55]

PPPS: yes, sally, you probably need to send me to an asylum.

[satansaloser2005]

All of this is being typed as I am bombarded by a dude on either side of me loudly reading books at me, so please forgive any fragmented thoughts. I’m trying.

I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there. However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.

++G55

Choose well.

Um, so....someone else has mentioned this, right? I could see “totality of circumstance” as some sort of bizarre seer hint (or not so bizarre, I suppose) that he thinks Nog is acting suspicious, but knows he is not guilty. Obviously Nog could still be the cobbler, or he could have dreamed Gal as a wolf instead (see below), or this could not even be a thing, but I feel the need to bring it up because....totality of circumstance just seems like a strange phrase to me.


Should I take it then that G55 or Pitch is a wolf and the mates are now hanging around not willing to take side hoping they will not be forced to make a move (to try and avoid a lynch of their mate if s/he's eventually lynched, or not willing to cast the first stone as there is still hope someone else will be lynched - but would hjoin the wagon if the case is lost?)?

I speak of this below, but I know of few players who would willingly help Fenris one of their own, especially given that Gal wasn’t too far in the lead yesterDay when votes started rolling in. (And yes, this does make me look far from the best, but it’s my opinion, and I don’t fear expressing it, because it’s true, so nyah.)


From the Pitch-lynchers Sally's and my votes stand up, clearly, whereas G55's and Agan's votes are more safe. So if someone tried to save a wolf-G55, it most probably would be Sally or me (which I am not).

It would in fact make us (Nog and myself) look quite bad, but as I know Galadriel and I are not packmates, there’s nothing I can do about it. But yeah, my vote was in a very suspicious place. Meh. It happens.


If you're debating about Inzil's dream or fellow wolves saving me yesterDay, think of this:

-knowing that I am likely to go down in the first couple Days - which he does, would Inzil have picked me as his N1 dream? He's not stupid; he knows I am a waste of dream unless I actually survive Day 1 and am suspicious enough to merit one.

-knowing that I wouldn't last anyways, and they could be placed under suspicion for that, would the mates risk saving me? It would be better for them to bus me, unless they are darned nice mates.

You do in fact have a good point about the dreams; I would not expect Dun to dream you on the first Night. However, I’m not basing my ‘what the flip are you doing, woman?’ off of potential seer dreams, but off your actions. And if you have a pack that thought they could get away with it, then yes, I think it would be beneficial for them to try to derail a Fenrissing.


Aganzir - she's enjoying herself too much to be completely innocent.

This is all that I think needs to be said about Agan. She mocks our pain and then she tries to cure it....by ending the pain or us though? Also, note that she’s referring to the cobbler as a she again. Could someone remind me: does she always do that, or is it only an occasional thing? I simply don’t have time to look toDay, for which I apologize. :/




I am confused, and haven’t really made up my mind about most things, but I believe I can section off at least a few people.....


Will lynch:
Gal
Agan



Will not lynch:
Nog
Menel (presently, anyway, as I wish to keep him around)



I am currently undecided on everyone else. I’ll probably be voting shortly before work again, though I hope I can be more active later in the evening (read, when I get home tonight).

[Nerwen]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Galadriel55
maybe the wolves thought Zil was a Seer who dreamed of Galwolf - regardless of whether he actually turns out to be Seer or not. So the wolves used this as an opportunity to frame me
WHAT?
Well, well. On the face of it, this looks like the very same slip that Aganwolf made in Wilwa's fairytale game years ago. Anyone remember that? (I bet Agan does.:p )

Not quite sure, though– I can sort of see what she might have been trying to say there, but it's very convoluted.

[Nogrod]

Will lynch:
Gal
Agan



Will not lynch:
Nog
Menel (presently, anyway, as I wish to keep him around)



I am currently undecided on everyone else. This kind of strengthens my suspicion G55 and Sally are in cahoots (and that Sally actually tried to save her late on D1).

She seemed happy enough to mirror my "open attitude" when I said my own vote looks bad, and as no one seemed to cling on it, she decided to make a similar kind of post herself about her voting.

Then her defence of G55 came in just after the odd slip G55 made - and now when some people started talking about it, she has made a 180 (which to be honest sounds more like they had discussed it last Night saying "if they get G, let's join the chorus but let's try to keep her alive if possible").

But the most vicious thing - and the one that kind of makes me reaallly suspect Sally is that I find myself from her really short list of "will not lynch".

The other being Menel... so as to keep up the appearace (?) that she thinks Menel was actually the seer dream of Zil (so G55 is not a dreamt wolf). Nice. But why me then? Of all people why does she think I'm the other one she doesn't want to lynch? Being too close to truth and willing to appease, make me feel good? Sometimes stretching the "right way" means stretching the "wrong way".

So unless she comes up with more convincing reasons why she thinks I'm innocent than trying to rub me the right way and thus possibly not suspect her any more, I'm going to suspect her.

[Nogrod]

Sudden and unwarranted trust is one of the easiest way to track evil...

(Werewolf Handbook, Chapter 5 "Catching a werewolf", 2:2 "Signs to be weary of")

[Galadriel55]

You know what? For the greater good.


++G55


Although it is my problem, it is not my fault that the village as a whole is being dumb toDay. At least this way it will be more productive.

Seriously, I was shaking with rage when I left the computer, and I have no desire to go through it again. Trying to convince you is like walking through quicksand: the more you try, the less you accomplish. So you'd be more efficient with your analyses and attention and whatnot if you vote me and stop talking about me, and start concentrating on other people. If I try to resist my lynch I'll only waste everyone's time and energy that could be spent on looking for wolves. You've discussed me long enough. Just vote and get on to searching for real wolves. If anyone tries to bring the conversation to my posts again, he or she should be tested carefully for being wolves who want to keep attention off themselves.

Just lynch me, cause if you won't this is going to repeat toMorrow and the Day after and etc for as long as I survive.

Take a look at Nog for me toMorrow, if you would.

[Nerwen]

You know what? For the greater good.


++G55


Although it is my problem, it is not my fault that the village as a whole is being dumb toDay. At least this way it will be more productive.

Seriously, I was shaking with rage when I left the computer, and I have no desire to go through it again. Trying to convince you is like walking through quicksand: the more you try, the less you accomplish. So you'd be more efficient with your analyses and attention and whatnot if you vote me and stop talking about me, and start concentrating on other people. If I try to resist my lynch I'll only waste everyone's time and energy that could be spent on looking for wolves. You've discussed me long enough. Just vote and get on to searching for real wolves. If anyone tries to bring the conversation to my posts again, he or she should be tested carefully for being wolves who want to keep attention off themselves.

Just lynch me, cause if you won't this is going to repeat toMorrow and the Day after and etc for as long as I survive.

Take a look at Nog for me toMorrow, if you would.

Believe me, Nog is fairly high on my list of wolf-suspects toDay. And there is some merit in what you say here– except, do you not realise that everyone voting the same person (i.e. you) will leave us exactly nothing to analyse toMorrow? Or that we can't afford to waste a lynch?

[Galadriel55]

Believe me, Nog is fairly high on my list of wolf-suspects toDay. And there is some merit in what you say here– except, do you not realise that everyone voting the same person (i.e. you) will leave us exactly nothing to analyse toMorrow? Or that we can't afford to waste a lynch?

I have 3/11 votes, unless I missed someone's. If you have a better plan you can try to convince the others - it's up to you. I suggest you rid the village of a suspicious innocent and clear the air for wolf lynch.

[satansaloser2005]

So a cobbler then, I guess? Or not? In any case, I need to rest. While I'm unconscious, I would love for others to discuss Agan. I had hoped to do more than the overall "she's too happy to be good" comment from earlier, but alas, time did not permit it.

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?

And now I must sleep. Agan and Gal are my main two lynch choices toDay. Given that I don't believe Gal is aligned with Nog, I do not want to lynch him, as previously stated, and Menel is just too amusing to kill toDay.

Good night, everyone. I will return a bit before DL to mash my phone's buttons again.


EDIT: At least I think I mentioned the Nog/Gal thing. If not, pretend I didn't accidentally delete it from my earlier post and move on. I don't think they're in a pack. That is all. Sleep now....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Reading through the day thus far, this is the first thing that caught my eye:
And that's an interesting choice of words....
- with nothing else, no follow-up, or anything. Now, granted, Sally tends to have a sense of the dramatic, but to me this screams "Hey, someone else pick this up and turn it into a real suspicion!"

...Which Glirdan ends up doing, here.

Now I can't decide if this is just typical Glirdan and my penchant for always finding him suspicious, but I don't really like this post. It's basically saying "Yeah, that's suspicious... and yet it might just be typical G55... and yet it still looks bad... but maybe not... but this other thing still makes her (and Nog) look bad." And then he exits, stage left. It's just a very wishy-washy, flip-floppy thing to say, and ends up telling us nothing about what he actually thinks, which I find very convoluted and odd.

Note: Lommy also sort of picks it up, in #109. Given that I can't really remember anything else she's said this game thus far, that's going to raise her on my suspicion list a bit.


[quote=G55]Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

You did, and I'm not really sure what I was thinking when I wrote that. My apologies. Best guess - your usage of "he" and "his" in the previous sentence made me think you were talking about Nog instead of Pitch, but either way, you're absolutely right, and I'm silly. :mad:

Looks like there's some suspicion of Shasta for acting as though he is trying to get others to bandwagon Inzil.
I think I know which bit you're talking about here. I asked that question in order to point out that some people were having double-standards in relation to Menel being Captain Obvious. It had nothing to do with trying to get votes for Inzil - we were actually agreeing for once! :p

This however again does ring my bells - because it looks a bit like turning suspicion to somebody else in the village.
Eh. I don't know about that. It doesn't bode well for the village to focus on just one person per day - which G55 has actually been saying quite a bit. It makes sense to me that she'd try to start discussion on someone else. Especially because a lot (a lot) of her later posts definitely remind me of frustrated innocent Brinniel.

Well, then, as Pitch is innocent ... G55 is more likely to be a wolf based on what I said earlier. Hopefully that now makes a bit more sense.
Wait a second...
If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.
This sentence makes me less suspicious of Pitch as it might suggest Inzil had dreamed of Pitch and therefore his lead wouldn't be a negative one. However, as an innocent doesn't actually 'know' anything I think this would be a misleading clue for the Seer to lead if he had dreamed of Pitch.
My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!


Quotes in their entirety, as I'm trying to avoid "misquoting", but it looks to me like you were considering that Pitch and G55 were wolves together (before you realized Pitch was dead). But now that you've realized Pitch was innocent, G55 is still likely to be a wolf? Girl can't win with you, huh, Kath. I'm pretty confused by this, honestly.

I'm not going to be around much today as I have a lot of real life things to do.

As such, I agree on G55; she does grasp at straws for suspicions and the voting pattern for yesterday is suspicious and implicates Sally as well.
No mention of Nog here, even though his was the vote that made Pitch hit four votes (by crossing with Sally, apparently.) Interesting.

After rereading Zil's posts I would say it's more likely he dreamt Menel than Gal, and also possible that he dreamt someone else entirely, but didn't speak a word. (For example the person hadn't said anything he could comment on before he had to vote and leave.) One thing that speaks in Menel-dream's favour is that he was the first person Zil mentioned.
The fact that Lommy's first post of the day was evidencing more suspicion of G55, combined with the timing of this post (it comes right after Legate at #115, who also puts in support for Inzil having dreamt Menel), makes me raise my eyebrows some more. Classic Lommy flip-flopping? Or Lomwolf beginning to wonder if a G55-lynch is as much a lock as it first seemed to be?

Interesting, interesting. Not sure what to make of this. On one hand, he does have a point, but on the other, he's hanging back himself - waiting for the others to go first? But the reasons for him hanging back cannot be the ones he lists, because neither me nor Pitch are wolves. If he's a wolf, though, he'd probably want to take the wagon that would make him look better. If he's an innocent, why on earth was he hanging back himself?

I'm not certain this is an applicable point. Nog almost always holds his vote as long as he can, because of all the new developments that can happen at the end of the day.

In the interest of not having another messy lynch, I think I'll keep Galadriel around for another Day. Among other things, it's fun to watch her stew.
First you poke some suspicion at G55 in a subtle way, and now you want to keep her around?

Nog at #129 - I slipped up during my very first WW game that way. G55 isn't exactly a newbie at this, though... agh. I don't really know what to think about that. I was kind of leaning toward her being a frustrated innocent, but it's possible that she was frustrated into making a slip of that caliber as a wolf, too. Hmmm.

Holy crap. And then I read the last few posts by the little gal and I'm wondering why we haven't killed her already. Or possibly sent her to an asylum. Either way, redacted, because....wow.

Sallywolf giving it up as a lost cause? If we do lynch G55 and she's a wolf, I think I'd look rather hard at the cupcake over here.

G55's #143 takes the frustrated innocent vibe up to eleven - it's like she's Brinniel, combined with Rikae, with a little bit of Morsul thrown in.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Making a list, and I'd like to note - it could easily be possible that Inzil dreamt of an innocent Menel and that G55 is a wolf. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

Now then.

Green:
No one. (Well, me, obviously. :cool:)

Yellow:
Menel. I myself am also leaning toward a probable Day 1 dream of Menel as innocent, and he hasn't otherwise made my hackles rise.
Nerwen. The splendid moon herself is behaving in her standard fashion, basically - I haven't seen much one way or the other.
Legate. Lommy seemingly parroting him makes me feel better about him, and he's been mostly focusing on G55 and Nogrod today, which I can't really blame him for, considering. No immediate red flags.
Kath. Goes here for now. I'd like to hear her response to my comment from earlier, about how G55 seems to be wolvish no matter what Pitch was.
Agan. Completely drawing a blank here. No flippin' idea. Person who is most under my reindeer at the moment.


Orange:
Lommy. She hasn't said much, understandably, but what she has said has set off some alarm bells. Her position on G55 looks like she initially was going to bandwagon, but decided not to, due in part to Legate and others supporting a dream of Menel.
Glirdan. Obviously hasn't been here much. I mentioned already why I didn't like his one post today thus far - it picked up Sally's nudged-through suspicion and ran with it... but not really... but still did. Very wishy-washy, and lets him go either way on the G55-wagon virtually consequence-free.
Sally. Giving the G55-wagon subtle pushes here and there, then getting off, then getting back on after the "slip". May change opinion should G55 die and be found innocent.
Nog. Probably the most conditional person in this category. I'm going to have to make myself go through his posts in detail, because he's always one of the hardest people for me to get a read on. He's really only here right now because of his late vote for Pitch yesterday. I'd rather not vote him without a clearer picture.

Red:
G55. I was leaning towards her being a frustrated innocent until the possible slip that Nog pointed out. And I can still see that being the case, but there's also a case to be made for her being a wolf. I think we basically have to know what she is at this point.

[Aganzir]

Sorry guys, I suck. I slept in.

++sally

I think G55 has begun to look more like a very frustrated innocent. A wolf would either give it up as hopeless or go down fighting, but Gal takes the middle path.

Whereas sally is the one that looks the most evil to me at the moment. She seems detached (not just in a "guys are reading books to me" way) yet oddly precise: the way she acknowledged several times that G55's furriness would make her and Nog look bad doesn't sit right with me. And then there was the "discuss if Agan might be the cobbler" statement with no real reasons except that I'm having too much fun, which she nicked from Lommy, who is a prune. Sally, how can I be the cobbler for saying it's a she when I wasn't the seer (who was a she as well) either? For me, everyone is female unless proven otherwise.

I need to rush now. Sorry for inactivity.

[Thinlómien]

Then her defence of G55 came in just after the odd slip G55 made - and now when some people started talking about it, she has made a 180 (which to be honest sounds more like they had discussed it last Night saying "if they get G, let's join the chorus but let's try to keep her alive if possible").Mhh you really make it sound like you're explaining what really happened from the inside point of view. Like, you decided if she's suspected, Sally tries to defend her and you attack her. I don't know why on earth you guys would decide something like that.

So a cobbler then, I guess? Or not? In any case, I need to rest. While I'm unconscious, I would love for others to discuss Agan. I had hoped to do more than the overall "she's too happy to be good" comment from earlier, but alas, time did not permit it.

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?So you want to get rid of the cobbler not of the wolves? Huh.

The fact that Lommy's first post of the day was evidencing more suspicion of G55, combined with the timing of this post (it comes right after Legate at #115, who also puts in support for Inzil having dreamt Menel), makes me raise my eyebrows some more. Classic Lommy flip-flopping? Or Lomwolf beginning to wonder if a G55-lynch is as much a lock as it first seemed to be?Why flip-flopping? I never said I thought Galadriel was the dream subject. That, however, doesn't make her look any more innocent.

Legate. Lommy seemingly parroting him makes me feel better about him,Not parroting, just coming tot the same conclusion after reading the same evidence. You do that too and I bet you'll agree.

That being said, when thinking about my vote, I think Agan's lead might be the wise one. Galadriel is still fishy and it would be convenient to lynch her (before you jump at my choice of words: I mean that like she said, otherwise we will be discussing her all toMorrow, plus her role might tell us about some other people), but Sally is maybe even more suspicious. Besides, we need some competition.

[Thinlómien]

++Sally

Apart from Gal (and possibly Nog), she's the most suspicious person around, and like I said, we need some competition. However, if Agan and Nog are in cahoots, I'm literally going to bang my head against the wall because that was so neat.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

This kind of strengthens my suspicion G55 and Sally are in cahoots (and that Sally actually tried to save her late on D1).

She seemed happy enough to mirror my "open attitude" when I said my own vote looks bad, and as no one seemed to cling on it, she decided to make a similar kind of post herself about her voting.

Then her defence of G55 came in just after the odd slip G55 made - and now when some people started talking about it, she has made a 180 (which to be honest sounds more like they had discussed it last Night saying "if they get G, let's join the chorus but let's try to keep her alive if possible").

But the most vicious thing - and the one that kind of makes me reaallly suspect Sally is that I find myself from her really short list of "will not lynch".

The other being Menel... so as to keep up the appearace (?) that she thinks Menel was actually the seer dream of Zil (so G55 is not a dreamt wolf). Nice. But why me then? Of all people why does she think I'm the other one she doesn't want to lynch? Being too close to truth and willing to appease, make me feel good? Sometimes stretching the "right way" means stretching the "wrong way".
I would agree about the first couple of points. Saying "my vote looks suspicious, I know" is sort of a bad thing to do (though of course, let's not forget, it doesn't matter who said that first, but Nog is in the same position and he was doing the same). Not necessarily the use of your name on the short "will not lynch" list, because, what of it? However also, the Menel-befriending looks like something that a "programmed Wolf" might do.

You know what? For the greater good.

(...)

Just lynch me, cause if you won't this is going to repeat toMorrow and the Day after and etc for as long as I survive.

Take a look at Nog for me toMorrow, if you would.
Okay, so now the question is whether a Galwolf would do this (or why). Of course if she is really desperate, then it might be a desperate attempt to save herself (and cause exactly what she is warning against - remaining around and distracting village further). I don't know about sally's proposal that G55 is a cobbler, because I don't think she has been acting cobblerishly or sort of making a mess on her own initiative. The frustration, in any case, sounds genuine, but there are these things in the past posts and behavior which still make me unsure.

Believe me, Nog is fairly high on my list of wolf-suspects toDay. And there is some merit in what you say here– except, do you not realise that everyone voting the same person (i.e. you) will leave us exactly nothing to analyse toMorrow? Or that we can't afford to waste a lynch?
Exactly, that's perfect point. Completely ditto. Though, now given the situation, it certainly isn't going to be completely unambiguous case, whomever we lynch. Speaking of that, I could even still go for Nog, if we wanted to have more colorful selection (insert half-funny smiley here, but speaking of that, seriously I am still probably wary the most about Nog, despite what has been the main focus toDay).

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?
We talked that yesterDay, and yes, I think the Cobbler is as dangerous as the WWs in this game (although now the Seer is dead... still, given the numbers, the Cob can vote along the WWs and whatnot, so not really). However, what - so you originally wondered if G55 is a cobbler, now you are asking what to do with the Cobbler? So did you think she was one or not?

EDIT: At least I think I mentioned the Nog/Gal thing. If not, pretend I didn't accidentally delete it from my earlier post and move on. I don't think they're in a pack. That is all. Sleep now....
Well this is actually pretty important, given that Nog is somebody who is practically in the same "voting situation" as you from yesterDay. Not sure if I remember you saying that indeed, so: why? Why are they not a pack? Only because you are in the same situation? That sounds eyebrow-raising indeed.

Whereas sally is the one that looks the most evil to me at the moment. She seems detached (not just in a "guys are reading books to me" way) yet oddly precise: the way she acknowledged several times that G55's furriness would make her and Nog look bad doesn't sit right with me. And then there was the "discuss if Agan might be the cobbler" statement with no real reasons except that I'm having too much fun, which she nicked from Lommy, who is a prune. Sally, how can I be the cobbler for saying it's a she when I wasn't the seer (who was a she as well) either? For me, everyone is female unless proven otherwise.

There is point to this in that Sally emerges sort of out of nowhere (out of inactivity) and starts throwing some ideas about. Granted, some new ideas too, for that matter - like that of Agan acting weirdly, which, thinking of it, has some merit. Agan reacts with voting her... (But this "she" thing is really getting old, I think.) Sally seems not to have noticed Agan's use of "she" (nor how it was discussed yesterDay), but Agan's reaction seems just sort of stubborn to me. We have heard it already a couple of times. Aside from that, not aware of sally calling Agan a cobbler, I thought it was Gal she called one, in reaction to her posts and self-vote?

One last thing - I am a bit worried about Lommy's vote coming immediately after Agan's, sort of jumping on the bandwaggon. I don't have any actual problems with Lommy's behavior today in general (there isn't the harshness anymore, so it probably was just lack of sleep), but I am just thinking whether this sudden turn away from G55 might not be actually another attempt to save a fellow Wolf. (Though again, Lommy was suspecting G55 before during the day, so unless she'd have suddenly decided that there is a chance to form some counter-effort and lynch sally instead, when there was some suspicion voiced about her... It's more like the swiftness it came with, a bit out of nowhere, just following the previous remarks of some people suspecting her and Agan voting.)

[Nogrod]

Hats off for G55 from exceptionally well put up show!

It clearly is working as I'm myself also under some doubt now on her role - even if I do remember and know that wolves can go into quite lengths defending themselves (Shasta's comparison with innocent Brinn & wolf-Rikae was quite fitting indeed ;))

Wolves have also voted themselves. I have done that once and I don't think I'm the only one. *coughRikaecough*

That said, nothing has changed my view on Sally (look my last posts about her) and I'm pretty much okay voting her as well.

And I really don't see much sense in totally turning the tables at this point (45 minutes before the DL) and putting in a new candidate from out of thin air even if I do think there have been some merit in certain questions concerning fex. Agan or Glirdan, or Lommy's sudden vote, or... but they open up quite different vistas - which we sure need to start exploring if we miss-lynch toDay.

[Kitanna]

Remember to vote if you didn't yesterday! I don't want to have to modfire anyone.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005
Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?
We talked that yesterDay, and yes, I think the Cobbler is as dangerous as the WWs in this game (although now the Seer is dead... still, given the numbers, the Cob can vote along the WWs and whatnot, so not really). However, what - so you originally wondered if G55 is a cobbler, now you are asking what to do with the Cobbler? So did you think she was one or not?
It is an odd question actually– rather pointless– I mean even if this weren't a a sort of super-cobbler, it's been quite a long time since the days when Cobblers were seen as "not worth lynching".

It is true, though, that the Cobbler is probably to be found *somewhere* in the current mess. In fact I could even say Sally's behaviour might fit her being the Cobbler, unable to make up her mind if G55 is a wolf or not. –That's "might fit", mind you– I could perhaps say the same thing of Lommy, too.

EDIT:X'd since Legate.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, goodie. I've slept in and am now in a horrible rush. Please don't kill me (literally?) If I'm not able to get back again before deadline; I'll do my best to catch up, but....ugh. Mornings.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, where is everyone? Anyway, a short list...

Shasta - is interacting, even though it is very difficult to tell what exactly is he doing, I think he's been shifting a bit under my radar. Would like to read more and clarify my thoughts on him in the future.
Menel - popped in once toDay. Would be nice to see more from him in the future. I do not have any reason to suspect him, but then again, no input is no input.
Glirdan - a bit the same case as Shasta, even though a lot less contributive. Also would like more input from him.
G55 - some of her posts seem genuine, some look more strange and suspicious. Her somewhat confusing/contradictory explanations of what exactly she meant or suggesting that Zil being the Seer was not the reason for the WW's kill, along with the possible slip about "wolves thinking that Zil dreamt of Galwolf" are rather bad, the self-vote is another thing to consider, though, and what exactly was the motive of it.
Nerwen - is very sharp, very witty, has observations I can identify with, so unless I turn paranoid, I think this far I don't have reasons to say anything against her.
Nogrod - keeps his place on my suspicion list. He is sort of casting suspicions around - yesterday it was with Menel, then he voted in the Pitchwagon (and later said he would have perhaps preferred G55), toDay he was mostly going with the main direction of the discussion, casting suspicion again on G55 now, and on sally later. He had this "I acknowledge my vote was bad"-moment, which later sally said too, I think in general their votes depend a lot on what G55's role is.
Lommy - if it were not for the last-minute rather sudden jump on bandwagon started before by Agan, I wouldn't probably have thought her any awkward at all.
Aganzir - I wonder if her vote for sally was retaliation, though Agan is certainly not the person I'd expect to act that way (sort of, too "primitive" reaction for her, I'd say). Otherwise, maybe she does deserve a look, but she also had from the start some rather good observations and comments.
Sally - some points raised about her lately, she came out of the blue with some random ideas herself, too (like looking at Agan). She seems a bit as if she were out of the game first and then suddenly came bursting with ideas. Like Nog, she pointed out how bad her vote was, see above.
Kath - has disappeared quite early in the Day, nothing much to tell right now.

Basically, either Nog or G55 could be my votes toDay. I don't want to jump any sallywagon also because I think it would be rather random first, and unlike in Nog's case, she said too little to analyse. That means I would like to see more from her, just like from about half a dozen submarines otherwise.

Now to see if anybody at least posted meanwhile...

EDIT: x-ed with everyone since my last post.

[Nerwen]

Regarding G55's "slip": people have asked whether any reasonably experienced wolf could make a slip like that– and I say the answer is "yes", under sufficient pressure.

Just to clarify: I'm not talking about her calling herself "Galwolf", which seems just her being hypothetical, but rather her strange reasoning there, which looks a lot like a wolf forgetting to separate her actual point-of-view and knowledge from that of the village. As As I said, I've seen the exact thing before.

If it is that. It could certainly also be a tangled attempt to explain the psychology of framing in terms of "what the wolves think the village thinks the wolves think". (Not that it really answers the questions she was being asked, mind you.)

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Nogrod]

Okay, lynching G55 might bring light to a few questions and it looks more probable to me she is a wolf than not - which doesn't mean I'm happy and easy to go with lynching her, but think it a reasonable choice.

On the other hand I just re-checked Sally's #139 and it really makes me want to lynch her, especially her odd choice of saying she will not want to lynch me (or Menel - picking us two from everyone else just like that) - which I just can't see any justification whatsoever, but to try and rub me the nice way to make me not wish to lynch her. If that was her plan it is backfiring in a major way...

[Nogrod]

Ditto, Nerwen!

Exactly. And I think some other posts of hers kind of reveal that same kind of rift between what she as a wolf thinks and how she tries to present things as a non-wolf... or to be more exact: it looks like there is that duality.

Does anyone have a tally?

G55 3 votes and Sally 2? Right?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hats off for G55 from exceptionally well put up show!

(...)

That said, nothing has changed my view on Sally (look my last posts about her) and I'm pretty much okay voting her as well.
Okay, I hate this triumphalistic attitude Nog sometimes has (the first sentence). But anyway, this "I can vote either way" really sort of pings my radar, it is a bit as if it was "I can vote G55 (especially if she's a fellow Wolf), but if I can avoid it, fine". Or, of course, if the three of them are WWs (well, in a way that would be really lucky, but we saw a Seer death on Night 1, anything is possible...), then he also does not have much choice. Hm, thinking of that, it really isn't likely that they would all be, just because of this - if they were, Nog wouldn't come up suddenly with suspicion about sally if he wanted to drive people away from his fellows.

It is true, though, that the Cobbler is probably to be found *somewhere* in the current mess. In fact I could even say Sally's behaviour might fit her being the Cobbler, unable to make up her mind if G55 is a wolf or not. –That's "might fit", mind you– I could perhaps say the same thing of Lommy, too.
Interesting point about Lommy, though again, I would sort of have expected the Cobbler being more "active" in making a mess. But, of course, maybe in this game the Cob can be a bit more careful, wishing to remain around to utilise the gift etc.? About sally, I think even *that* might be more plausible - with the randomness of some of her ideas. But that's exactly why I would like to see more from her, since now she just comes and starts talking some rather random things...

Okay, all in all, right now I feel like voting Nog, but then again, if G55 is going, then at least there will be peace of the questions and also, it might clarify the roles of sally and Nog on top of that (and either further support or lessen the reasons to my suspicion of Nog, and clarify something about sally's motives. It's also possible if e.g. she was a cobbler and it was not a Wolf-vote, or cobbler-vote or whatnot...).

EDIT: x-ed with some Nogs

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so it really makes no sense to start a third bandwagon, and I am not sure people would vote for that anyway,

++G55

P.S. I hope too many people aren't in risk of being modfired, or that they vote...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Good thing I stayed up so late (my time, anyway.) I just realized I never voted! :eek:

++G55

As I said, I feel like we pretty much have to know what she is - and if we don't lynch her, we'll likely be in the same boat tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

Okay, I hate this triumphalistic attitude Nog sometimes has (the first sentence). I feel everything but triumphalistic... and yes, I could vote either way as I'm not too sure about either but think that I have reason enough to wish to try either.

[Nogrod]

I see no reason to compete with how the vote is going... so

++ G55

[Nerwen]

Well, then, may as well be–

++G55

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

[satansaloser2005]

Rub you the right way? Seriously, Nog, I really [I]am[I] a delivery girl....

Well, crunch time, and since the sultry minx isn't on the table, my vote shouldn't be a surprise.

++the little Gal

Cobbler or wolf, it's still evil (although obviously I prefer the latter).

Heading into work. I hope the lynch goes good (aka not toward me, please). Good luck!


X'd since Nog's #159

[Kitanna]

With Inzil dead the drinks had stopped. This was as terrible a loss as the seer. How could they continue without Inzil giving them their ale? Angry and thirsty the Hobbits deliberated on what to do now.

“It was Gal, look how guilty she looks,” the whispers began early.

The resident Red Riding Hood had never done anything to anyone. When they were sick she'd skipped to their homes with baskets of goodies. She'd been the one to catch the wolf two years ago who had masqueraded as an elderly Hobbit with gout. But now they all whispered it was her. Her and the gouty wolf had teamed up so she got all the food.

“I've done nothing wrong!” The bewildered Hobbit lass protested.

She was ignored. Her neighbors' accusations grew louder. Terrified to her core of meeting a similar fate to Pitch's, Gal decided this would be on her terms. From her basket she produced a paring knife. It's main purpose was to cut apples, but now she used it to slice down her forearm. The vein opened and she brandished the bloody knife.

“You've all made a huge mistake!” She cried.

Her desperate plea moved no one. “Let's leave her out in the cold.” Shasta suggested. The floor already had enough blood staining it. No need to add to it.

“I won't let you touch me!” Gal was weakening as she lost more and more blood. With her good hand she took the knife and slammed it into her throat. There was a gasp, a gurgle, and wide-eyed terror as Gal slid to the floor. No one moved. Nothing happened. They'd been wrong again.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Glirdan
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Lommy
Aganzir
Sally
Kath

Night 3 Begins

According to my count Glirdan failed to vote both days. If I miscounted, please correct me before Night 3 ends.

[Kitanna]

Lommy couldn't sleep. Too many bad things were happening around the village. She sat up in her bed, a blanket over her head. There were a few hours until dawn. It was a shame daylight no longer guaranteed safety. The Hobbits had gone crazy over the last few days.

Lommy removed the blanket from her head. Something smelled of burning wood. Was that smoke seeping in under the door? Wonderful. The fiends were going to serve the wolves cooked meat for a change. The bewildered Hobbit jumped from bed, grabbing a basin of water. She pulled the door open and prepared to douse the flames.

The three stood outside her bedroom, fanning the smoke from a burning log toward Lommy's door. “Surprise,” they said. One of them slammed a fireplace poker into her gut.

Across town Glirdan burst into flames while making a midnight snack.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Aganzir
Sally
Kath

Day 3 Begins

[Nogrod]

What was the final ruling about two people tied in votes? Double-lynch, no-lynch, first to gain votes, last to gain...?

It is quite important.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I found it: In the event of a tie the one who garnered more votes first will be lynched.
We're doomed. :(

It would be nice to reason the wolves out though, but yeah: this was going very badly from D1 onwards already. Well done wolfsies.

[Nerwen]

Perhaps I'm being very dense at the moment– I've had a long day– but why are we "doomed", Nogrod?

[satansaloser2005]

We're doomed. :(

Not really. After all, there are only three wolves, whereas there are yet five innocents who can band together. If we lynch a wolf toDay, I think the village stands a fair chance of winning this. If we lynch an innocent toDay, yeah, it's a pickle, but it's still not the doom you present it to be at the moment.

Unless of course you're just trying to destroy village morale, in which case, do feel free to continue your attempts, because it won't work on me.


In other news, look at that. For once a modfire worked out in the innocents' favor. It's about time.



x'd with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

Perhaps I'm being very dense at the moment– I've had a long day– but why are we "doomed", Nogrod?Well, I thought it more than obvious. But if you think it isn't, then in case the wolves don't see it, I'm not going to tell it to them. :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

In other news, look at that. For once a modfire worked out in the innocents' favor. It's about time.Oops... I'm so used to bad news I had totally ignored that Glirdy was the cobbler (from a neutral POV: oh what a role wasted there...).

Well, that changes things.

Hah, I was already entertaining the idea of "revealing" myself as the cobbler and trying to lure the wolves or/and the cobbler into the open - but the tie-votes -ruling kind of destroyed the idea. Good I didn't do that. It would have looked pretty odd to reveal oneself as a dead-person's role. :p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Having a Cobbler dead, I think, sort of compensates for the death of two people, and maybe it is still better than having him actively messing around (although Glirdan wasn't very active). Nog's "prophecies of doom" are certainly rather overdone, but looking at the number of players, a live Cobbler could have been potentially dangerous, maybe not toDay, but soon.

In any case, one question for start toDay would be why Lommy was killed, if there can be any lead, because she wasn't very active (or distinctive in some special way), I'd say, except for her following Agan to vote for sally in the end of the previous Day.

There are many questions still existing and now it sort of seems that lynching G55 yesterDay did not actually clarify as much as I hoped it would, though at least it "clears space" for other things. Of the things it clarifies, it might possibly be only the thing that the votes of Nog and sally on Day 1 were not Wolves saving a packmate, though that of course does not rule out the possibility of the two of them being Wolves still. Also, it basically did end up being the way Nerwen feared and it was almost unambiguous vote (maybe that was also one reason for the WWs targeting Lommy, eliminating a person from the "different camp", so that eventually it would be more difficult to determine anything about the votes? Though there would probably be more reasons than just this, but it sounds rather logical to me).

As I won't be here for the DL toDay and basically the second half of toDay in general, I will try to play now and in the evening (my time). I am going to quickly take a look at Lommy's posts now, likewise it might be perhaps worth it to review Glirdy's posts, even though he probably did not have time to Cobble around much. I would also still like to take a look at Agan as I intended and maybe some of the submarines, like Shasta or Kath.

Will be around...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so Glirdan, in fact, did not say anything almost at all, basically only one of his posts being somewhat relevant, and that mentioning G55 in totally ambiguous way and also Nog in slightly defensive way, but that's it. Basically a non-appearing Cobbler.

Lommy, apart from suspecting G55, was listing also Nog and Sally as her suspects, in fact listing Nog and G55 as (possibly!) even more suspicious than Sally, however she decided to vote the latter. Maybe quoting directly:

++Sally

Apart from Gal (and possibly Nog), she's the most suspicious person around, and like I said, we need some competition. However, if Agan and Nog are in cahoots, I'm literally going to bang my head against the wall because that was so neat.

In her list earlier, she lists also Agan there (whom she also had voted originally on Day 1) - she does not list sally back then yet:

Suspiciousish

Glirdan - mild bad vibes.

Galadriel - pretty fishy. But she's totally right about herself taking all the attention and that being very harmful if she's not a wolf herself.

Nogrod - awfully quick to throw Galadriel to the lynch block, which could make sense regardless of her role if he was a wolf himself. Just btw I didn't like Nerwen's "others, discuss this while I sit back and relax" comment, makes me suspect something fishy between Nerwie and Noggie actually.

Aganzir - she's enjoying herself too much to be completely innocent.

Of other stuff, she mentioned Zil probably dreamed Menel, I have no idea how that could be relevant (at most I would say, if Menel was a Wolf and this was true, he wouldn't want to kill her. But it's really rather random). She also believed Kath innocent.

Summa summarum - the people she suspected are the ones I find rather suspicious too, so I wouldn't be too surprised about that the motive for her death might have been, apart from what I suggested above, simply that she was suspecting a Wolf, or even several Wolves. However that kind of reasoning has not been very common among Wolves lately, I think (or at least when I was last playing), and also, she certainly wasn't the only one who suspected those people. Again, if the reason was the opposite and the WWs wanted to frame somebody up, this is rather an extensive list, so not sure if that would work (if she suspected heavily just one person, fine, I could understand that). I have not been able to find anything that would point to her looking like a Ranger in her posts, which is a motive I would have expected from the WWs the most. Maybe the WWs just feared her being a sharp player and wanted to get rid of her, then. I would bet something between that, a Wolf on the list and/or the "no track in the voting list" idea I mentioned earlier. I wouldn't put that past Agan, for instance, to get rid of Lommy in such a manner (since she just briefly dropped suspecting her at that point, so there won't be immediate connection between them), of course we still have the full amount of Wolves, the whole pack needed a decisive motivation.

I shall be around, re-reading somehow, although I also have non-WW obligations. Hope more people show up to discuss.

[Nogrod]

You do walk in interestingly ambiguos terrain Legate, and that makes me quite uneasy.Nog's "prophecies of doom" are certainly rather overdone, but looking at the number of players, a live Cobbler could have been potentially dangerous, maybe not toDay, but soon.No. We would have lost toDay.

Three wolf votes + one cobbler vote = 4. Now there are four innocents, but unlike the wolves & at this situation the cobbler, they can't co-operate. Add to that the fact that wolves & cobbler will probably look into the thread in time and be interested to get the picture... so they'd had all it takes to secure four votes first.

Luckily I was wrong as the cobbler is dead.

There are many questions still existing and now it sort of seems that lynching G55 yesterDay did not actually clarify as much as I hoped it would, though at least it "clears space" for other things. Of the things it clarifies, it might possibly be only the thing that the votes of Nog and sally on Day 1 were not Wolves saving a packmateNo. It is not "might" or "possibly". It definitively proved it. G55 was an ordo, if you have "forgotten" that.

I though it would be redundant or at least not worthwhile to remid you that all the suspicion you might have gathered from D1 voting is now obsolete. Dead, gone, kaputt, over and dealt with.

But it looks like Legate is too happy to try and keep up that suspicion that it makes me, as I said, quite uneasy.


(maybe that was also one reason for the WWs targeting Lommy, eliminating a person from the "different camp", so that eventually it would be more difficult to determine anything about the votes? Though there would probably be more reasons than just this, but it sounds rather logical to me).
Now this sounds believable, well possible at least. How nicely you manage to get under the skin of a possible wolf-train of thought! ;)

We need some new openings toDay as it looks like we have stuck on wrong trails the first two Days, and we just can't afford a mislynch anymore.

After saying that I have to make a similar kind of announcement Legate made. I will be coming back before going to sleep and will probably have some time then. On the latter end of the Day I'm able to come in for a shortish time, but not for long. Sorry.

[Nogrod]

Shasta, Legate, Nerwen!!! :eek: :)

Just thought about new openings and tried to think who are the persons who have received little or no suspicion thus far... Scary list.

Okay. No time to pursue that or any other combination of players right now. Hopefully something better, later.

[Nogrod]

PS. I still suspect Sally though, because of her totally unmerited and sudden buddy-buddying and tip-toeing from yesterDay.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

No. We would have lost toDay.

Three wolf votes + one cobbler vote = 4. Now there are four innocents, but unlike the wolves & at this situation the cobbler, they can't co-operate. Add to that the fact that wolves & cobbler will probably look into the thread in time and be interested to get the picture... so they'd had all it takes to secure four votes first.
Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow. Okay, technically it is possible, but anyway, doesn't the Cobbler still count as innocent in the tally? So we won't have lost toDay. Anyway, this is irrelevant now anyway.

No. It is not "might" or "possibly". It definitively proved it. G55 was an ordo, if you have "forgotten" that.
I am not saying "it might possibly mean these weren't Wolves saving a buddy votes", I am saying "it might possibly be the only extra thing we learned from G55's death". That was the point of the paragraph, as you can see.

We need some new openings toDay as it looks like we have stuck on wrong trails the first two Days, and we just can't afford a mislynch anymore.
Whereas I agree that we definitely should be very careful and reevaluate stuff, it does not mean dropping entirely everything. I mean, for example for me, it really did not change that much. Your and sally's vote on Day 1 wasn't a Wolf-saving-Wolf vote, that is clear, but it does not change anything about the rest of the stuff you have been saying that I considered suspicious throughout previous Days. And of course, you being earlier under some scrutiny (also by dead Lommy, nonetheless!), now trying to completely erase everything we have been gathering in the past sounds rather... well, fishy. Does not really make me see you any better.

So here. I am going to take a look at Kath and Shasta and Agan, most of all, but it will be kind of spread throughout the whole evening...

[Meneltarmacil]

As per my previous Days' statements, we should stand a good chance of finding a wolf if we look at the G55 bandwagon.

Specifically, I don't think a wolf actually started it, and probably did a back-and-forth "G55 or Pitchwife?" thing on Day 1.

After Day 1, much of the focus of conversations was on G55, who warned us that we should really look around at other people. A wolf in this case was probably trying to make sure that didn't happen. So we should be looking for someone who, during Day 2, kept trying to redirect suspicion onto G55.

I'll post an analysis of who that might be later.

[Nogrod]

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow. Okay, technically it is possible, but anyway, doesn't the Cobbler still count as innocent in the tally? So we won't have lost toDay. Anyway, this is irrelevant now anyway.How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more... :(

But yes, that is redundant now.

I am not saying "it might possibly mean these weren't Wolves saving a buddy votes", I am saying "it might possibly be the only extra thing we learned from G55's death". That was the point of the paragraph, as you can see.Ahh, okay. I did read it the other way, but I guess you're right. *language*

Whereas I agree that we definitely should be very careful and reevaluate stuff, it does not mean dropping entirely everything. I mean, for example for me, it really did not change that much. Your and sally's vote on Day 1 wasn't a Wolf-saving-Wolf vote, that is clear, but it does not change anything about the rest of the stuff you have been saying that I considered suspicious throughout previous Days.Naturally we should not drop "entirely everything". Heh, I'm not sure how suspicious I should take your wordings to be, though. "Entirely everythnig"? You really thought someone suggested that?

I actually posted a postscript saying I'm still suspicious of Sally, but because of something she did yesterDay, not because of her vote on D1.

I just hope we all are able to separate the two things when facing time-constraints or other such stuff. We just can't vote wrong toDay.

[Aganzir]

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow.
Not really. The wolves could just have held back their votes until a sufficient number of players had voted for a non-wolf. Or the cobbler could have got himself lynched - in theory, at least, as Glirdy wasn't the most active player. In the end, all it would've taken was for one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow, and the wolves could've jumped on it. It's not like they were offered an automatic victory on a silver plate today, but as they are surely clever and all, I'm sure they would've found a way to steer the lynch in a favourable direction.

Yesterday I was feeling the worst about sally and Nog, but Legate has now pretty much replaced Nog on my suspect list. I'm also sorry about Lommy's death because I had gradually started to trust her, not the least because she followed my vote for sally. I'm also okay with Kath, so that would probably leave Nerwen or Shasta as the last wolf, or Menel because I don't think we can tell for sure if Zil dreamt of him. I read his posts and if I had to make a guess, I'd say he had decided not to leave hints yet - either because the chance of his early death was so slim, or he couldn't for some reason do that.

I'm off to see a friend now, will be back in some hours. I hope to take a look at sally and Legate then - the latter being maybe even more worrisome than the former because of the extent to which I disagree with his notions about people.

I'd also like everyone to remember that if two innocents vote for a different innocent, the wolves are free to do as they please with the lynch.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more... :(
Yes, I see, though still, there would've been still more innocents - like I said, if the cobbler counts as innocent - and the WWs would still at least have to do a Night-kill, which the Ranger could've prevented. But yeah, whatever.

Naturally we should not drop "entirely everything". Heh, I'm not sure how suspicious I should take your wordings to be, though. "Entirely everythnig"? You really thought someone suggested that?
Well that's what seemed really suspicious to me, that you would suggest that. So if you didn't, then all right.

Anyway - okay, so I don't know how much time I will have still. I didn't have that much time after all anyway, but I managed to review the people I wanted.

Upon rereading Agan, I actually think she is not really worrisome in any special way. Yesterday, what triggered my interest in her came from her reaction to sally who voted her, Agan's vote for her seemed retaliatory. That is about the only thing, otherwise she had said a lot of sensible stuff and not really that much suspicious things, if you don't count all the "blood!" stuff, which was rather random. So I really don't feel the need to move her to any suspicious zone or anything.

Shasta was also not very striking on first Day, or in fact, on neither of them, because his posts are not very many. In any case, on first Day, he was maybe a bit "harsh" in reactions to some people, but that's about it. His vote (for G55) he claimed to be because of her original suspicion of Menel, yet then she backed away and voted Pitch instead. That's a sound reasoning. On Day 2, he continued with pursuing G55, the question is if he still found her suspicious or if it now just fitted his intentions that she was under heavy fire within the village. In a similar way, he raised a point about sally and also later slightly about Lommy. He had some good points too (like that the village should not focus only on one person - even though he said it in a context where the issue was something else at that moment, or pointing out Kath's inconsistency), but in the end the total amount of his posts is not a very big number. I would say he might be a under-the-radar type baddie who sort of fits into the flow, but he is not striking in any obvious way.

Last of all, Kath, she posted in the end probably even less than Shasta. Which is a pity, since at first she started relatively nicely and actively. Starting with discussing the Cobbler might have been a Wolf trying to turn the discussion into that (give signals to the Cobbler, make him give signals back; evidently the Cobbler did not react), but it might have been just inquisitive wish to start the conversation. She voted G55 on Day 2, based on that she thought her more likely Zil's Seer-dream than Menel. That may sound to some like a bit feeble excuse, but maybe too feeble for a Wolf. The most interesting point of all, however, is probably the "Pitch is not dead"-thing. I really wonder if a Wolf would make such a weird slip (I mean, the WWs probably should have the best idea about who is dead and who is not, unless she completely missed the game, like, rest of the Day and missing the Night or something as complicated). I cannot really imagine Kath making that up, so even though I dislike "meta-reasoning" as a rule, that would speak for her genuinity in my book.

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod. If I have time, I could reread a bit of some old posts, but seriously not sure if I will have time. I shall be back still to vote in something like an hour or somesuch (or depends how long I stay up).

[Nogrod]

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod.The reason for that being...?

Btw. where are you people? If no one else is ready to fight, neither will I use my late night for this. Honestly. Come forwards.

[Kath]

I'm going to be able to vote later tonight as it's not a school day tomorrow. Just thought I'd pop in and say.

Having quickly flicked through, I think Agan, sally and Nog could be an interesting wolf trio. Aga suspects sally but lessened her suspicion of Nog toDay in steady phases. Nog's 'fake cobbler/cobbler/no cobbler' business was ... interesting. sally? Don't know yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The reason for that being...?

Well, it's mostly the continuous suspicion I have of you. From Day 1, your behavior is this little by little feeding some suspicions (Day 2, BIG feeding, in fact). You were at the start of the initial debate about Menel, which might have been just testing water, and then you suddenly became active in the Pitchwagon. YesterDay, you were certainly the most vocal in the G55 suspicion - even though of course none of us has clean hands in this process, but then again, we of course cannot completely dismiss what was happening yesterDay, that's exactly what the WWs would want. In fact, if that was their intention, they in fact partially succeeded in that by now having, except for some Aganzir, basically all yesterDay's votes under the same "voting umbrella" (which once again btw brings me to the idea that that was their intention with the kill of Lommy). You were, I think (or correct me if I misremember), apart from Kath, I think the one person really pushing the "Inzil dreamed of Wolf G55"-theory, sometimes with a bit ridiculous arguments, even. Basically that.

It is true that it is now clear you weren't saving any packmate on Day 1, but the rest of it still holds. If I look around at all people here, you are the one who seems to me has been casting the most suspicions around and in fact leading the village's course the most, I'd say.

EDIT: x-ed with Kath

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, as for my planned analysis:

Nogrod looks like he might fit the bill for his Day 2 behavior.

I was looking over the posts from that day to find a point where someone other than G55 agreed with looking at other people, and I found one such instance.

Once Lommy had brought that point up, Nogrod turned up and instantly made multiple posts about G55. Nogrod later was the first person to question G55 on her "frustrated innocent" post after others were starting to waver on her.

I have also known Nogrod to play a very dangerous "influential wolf" in the past, so he's quite capable of pulling it off. Beware, villagers.

Sally also seems a bit suspicious, as she was the first to attack G55 on Day 2, with her focusing on G55's "savage blow" wording. Shasta suspected that this was an attempt at getting the villagers to focus on G55, reinforced by the fact that the first to jump on it was the Cobbler.

Sally also avoided suspecting G55 at one point, only to reverse course rather quickly after Nogrod's attack following Lommy's post.

EDIT: x'd with Legate

[Nogrod]

Well, it's mostly the continuous suspicion I have of you. From Day 1, your behavior is this little by little feeding some suspicions (Day 2, BIG feeding, in fact). You were at the start of the initial debate about Menel, which might have been just testing water, and then you suddenly became active in the Pitchwagon.With Menel I was kind of late and actually didn't so much suspect him but was asking why he was doing it (basically ending up thinking he was just out of touch), but if you look closer, the thing I was strongly against was the content of his message which was "lynch those who try to play and save the submarines" (to put it in somewhat strong terms) as I also clearly indicated he should not be lynched after coming back after such a long time.

So not Menel but what he suggested.

I don't think I suddenly became active in a Pitchwagon. He voted me against the basic reasoning an intelligent innocent keeps (don't vote someone with bad or fabricated reasons as that someone might be an innocent) and thus I thought he could be a wolf who doesn't think like an innocent has to, especially a wolf doesn't have to take care his reasons are as good as he can make as any vote for a wolf is a known vote and there is no such risk as an innocent's vote carries with it.

YesterDay, you were certainly the most vocal in the G55 suspicion - even though of course none of us has clean hands in this processLike you say... and I was themost vocal yesterDay anyway as I had time then...

You were, I think (or correct me if I misremember), apart from Kath, I think the one person really pushing the "Inzil dreamed of Wolf G55"-theory, sometimes with a bit ridiculous arguments, even. Basically that.Wrong again. Go and read again.

What I said was, that IF there was a seer-dream included (as to why they "knew" to pick Zil - as a possibility they got it right rather than just having a huge boost of luck), then there were two possibilities of which G55 made more sense - and actually fit nicely into the other pattern with Sally (remembering Sally's behaviour on D2 as well) etc.

If you go back and read you can see I have in one post two "arguments", one on how could it be Zil dreamt of Menel, and another on how it could be he dreamt of G55. Surely you don't try to say I was arguing them for real at the same time?

And anyway, without the hindsight we have now, I think the case with G55 being a dreamt wolf wasn't that far-fetched but actually fit in quite well with both the what happened around - and why they got Zil.

It is true that it is now clear you weren't saving any packmate on Day 1, but the rest of it still holds.If you are an innocent, just reconsider as nothing you say holds as you can read from above. If you're a wolf as I now suspect, then what the heck... I must just hope everyone sees it.

If I look around at all people here, you are the one who seems to me has been casting the most suspicions around and in fact leading the village's course the most, I'd say.If none casts suspicion around how are we going to vote, by rolling a dice? You actually agree, but at this moment this kind of thing suits your ends, doesn't it?

I may be bearing some considerable guilt on what has happened. I admit. But I'm not "triumphalistic" about it, as you cared to put it yesterDay. It's bad. But how about someone else started carrying the flag then? I think I have caued enough problems with my ideas about who's guilty thus far. So I'll leave it to you then. Or shall we roll a dice before the DL? :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

Menel (and anyone): Before you continue that "Nog lynched G55" meme, just answer one question.

Who do you think would have been lynched yesterDay had I been totally absent the whole Day? :smokin:

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

With Menel I was kind of late and actually didn't so much suspect him but was asking why he was doing it (basically ending up thinking he was just out of touch), but if you look closer, the thing I was strongly against was the content of his message which was "lynch those who try to play and save the submarines" (to put it in somewhat strong terms) as I also clearly indicated he should not be lynched after coming back after such a long time.

So not Menel but what he suggested.
Well, that's putting it in really "strong terms", I would say rather misquoting. What he said was:
In any case, I suggest that if we have had no luck for the next few days and innocents die instead of wolves, we look at those who have been pushing them to their deaths. The most dangerous werewolf is an influential one, after all.
Effectively, if you took certain extreme route, it could lead to what you said, but I don't see it that way. That's really an extreme interpretation of it.

I, of course, do share your concern about quiet Wolves, as you must know. But this is not about ideology now, this is about what you use as tool to suspect someone. Suspect someone just because he has different opinion is a rather cheap way.

I don't think I suddenly became active in a Pitchwagon. He voted me against the basic reasoning an intelligent innocent keeps (don't vote someone with bad or fabricated reasons as that someone might be an innocent) and thus I thought he could be a wolf who doesn't think like an innocent has to, especially a wolf doesn't have to take care his reasons are as good as he can make as any vote for a wolf is a known vote and there is no such risk as an innocent's vote carries with it.
But you turned on him. Anyway - this is more like general remark - did it ever occur to you that what you consider logical might not seem logical to everyone? Take this as friendly remark (especially if you are innocent), I think you very often have your own "clear logical set" which very often backfires, because it stems from some premise that does not really hold. (Remember that enthusiasm you yelled with when you reported G55's "Wolf slip" yesterDay. I thought that too at that moment. But it is exactly these "clear" things which often turn not to be so clear. I recall how once in my game you were sure you must lynch Roa because you were sure if she was an Ordo, she would have remembered the content of the Ordo-PM I sent to everyone...)

What I said was, that IF there was a seer-dream included (as to why they "knew" to pick Zil - as a possibility they got it right rather than just having a huge boost of luck), then there were two possibilities of which G55 made more sense - and actually fit nicely into the other pattern with Sally (remembering Sally's behaviour on D2 as well) etc.

If you go back and read you can see I have in one post two "arguments", one on how could it be Zil dreamt of Menel, and another on how it could be he dreamt of G55. Surely you don't try to say I was arguing them for real at the same time?
I did not see that "if" there, but you are right, you spoke also of the other possibility. The support of "G55 was a dreamed Wolf" had drawn my attention more strongly yesterDay since your arguing for it was rather, well, illogical. But yes.

And anyway, without the hindsight we have now, I think the case with G55 being a dreamt wolf wasn't that far-fetched but actually fit in quite well with both the what happened around - and why they got Zil.
Not sure what you mean by this one, but anyway, my brain is already getting sleepy.

If none casts suspicion around how are we going to vote, by rolling a dice? You actually agree, but at this moment this kind of thing suits your ends, doesn't it?
Certainly not, of course. And where does all this sudden aggressivity come from? I state I suspect you and you start jumping back. Anyway, of course we need to suspect someone, what else is the game about, right? But there is difference between having your own suspicions and pressuring, openly or less openly, others to follow you. And I think, when rereading your posts, you cannot deny you have been doing that. Seriously.

Well, now I would actually really like that I could be around more - because now I would like to actually talk to you, Nog for a while still, to make more of your defense. But like I said, I cannot, I won't be around for the rest of the Day at all. Means I must vote, and despite granting some benefit of doubt of some things I said, I still think you are my best bet right now. But of course there is still the rest of the people, and with what was said about the importance of voting, I truly urge everyone to review their suspicions critically. Just let's not get led or misled.

++Nogrod

[Meneltarmacil]

Menel (and anyone): Before you continue that "Nog lynched G55" meme, just answer one question.

Who do you think would have been lynched yesterDay had I been totally absent the whole Day? :smokin:

I do not know. I suspect you want me to say "You would, for being a submarine" or "G55, because people would still have found her suspicious." Or even, "I would, because you somehow saved me."

The truth of the matter is that I don't care to speculate on what would have been. Any or none of the above could have happened.

I also didn't suspect you as a result of Legate's posts. I came up with a likely pattern of wolf behavior, looked for someone who fit it, and that someone just happened to be you.

[satansaloser2005]

I have been unavailable for most of the day and will continue to be so until quite late this evening. I'm just popping by to post this so people know I won't be around. Moving on.

[Aganzir]

I also didn't suspect you as a result of Legate's posts. I came up with a likely pattern of wolf behavior, looked for someone who fit it, and that someone just happened to be you.
I hate myself for defending Nog because he's bound to be a wolf if I do it, but to be honest he's always like that. You look for a potentially influential wolf, you find Nog who's always influential and a loudmouth regardless of his role.

In other words, I'm back. I'll take a quick look at sally now.

[Kath]

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler

Lommy:
Mentioned that G55 seemed to be making a case against Menel in strong terms. Yet found Menel suspicious. Seems to feel Pitch and Nog are innocent. Everyone else in 'maybe' category. Suspected Menel and G55 but didn't want to vote for them as she felt it might be their general Day 1 suspiciousness confusing things. So voted for Agan on 'gut feeling'. Suspects Nogrod for 'bussing' a wolf comrade. Remained suspicious of G55. Says if G55 is a wolf then sally and Nog's votes are suspicious. Thinks Menel was the Seer-dream as he was the first person Inzil mentioned.

So talked herself out of thinking Menel was suspicious - could Menel therefore be a wolf and the wolves are using the general good-feeling toward Menel as a nice cover? Had Glirdan, Nog and Agan down as suspicious, and possibly Nerwen. Now, even if the wolves had thought Lommy might be the Ranger, she wouldn't have had any real extra information, so could she have been killed for getting near the mark? Don't think she's a trailless kill. She posted well. Thinks Nog was talking about what the wolves thought like an insider, was suspicious of sally, but thought G55 might be a useful lynch. This wording was odd. I was thinking maybe the wolves thought she was the Cobbler, but then it makes no sense for them to kill her! Roles are giving me trouble this game.

Voted sally but looks like she's getting sure about Nog and Agan being evil. This trio stood out to me earlier too. If even two of them are wolves killing Lommy was a good move here before she started pressing them.

It does surprise me that no one has looked at Lommy's posts. Particularly people like Nog, Nerwen, Legate.


The Living ~ Posts from Day 1
Menel - was talking about 'influential' wolves not necessarily loudmouths. I do think this has been misrepresented. There is a different between having an effect within the game and being a loudmouth. Thinks Inzil's post is suspicious and almost - praises Nog - for noticing and questioning it. Votes Inzil. This is quite random. There hasn't really been much in the way of suspicions and reasoning. Following a wolf-buddy's lead?

Legate - immediately looks at Inzil and Pitch for not having very content filled posts. Early to make this kind of accusation really! Just starting conversation or testing responses maybe. Has comments on Pitch, Inzil and Agan mostly. Thinks Nog has good recent posts and that G55 is the better pick for the lynch.

Nogrod - thinks Menel does look suspicious for the way he talks about the obvious but that it could be due to not playing for a while. Talks about Inzil being spot on. I don't know whether this makes me less suspicious of him. Why say it in the thread if it's making you worried he knows a lot if you're a wolf? With G55 and Pitch now in the lynch running he begins to find them suspicious, but thinks it unlikely they are both wolves.

Aganzir - fairly innocuous post. However some suspicion of me and also keeps Menel out of her 'guilty' list yet specifically mentions being unsure of him. Didn't like the way I talked about the cobbler. Out of nowhere states that Nerwen is a wolf. Ends up with Nog and Pitch as her suspicions and votes Pitch as she is more comfortable with that. Would be if she and Nog are wolf partners.

Missed out Nerwen, Shasta and sally I'm afraid, eyes are closing. Back in a few with thoughts and vote.

[Kath]

So Lommy voted for Agan and sally. I'm tempted to go the same way. I feel like she was on to something. I haven't looked at sally and she's only just around while I'm disappearing. Therefore:

++AGAN

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
All she says is that Pitch's vote for Nogrod made her uneasy, thus she votes for him. Her vote puts Pitch in the lead, but since G55 was an ordo as well, it doesn't matter much - except if she's a wolf, it might point at Nog being one as well.

DAY 2
After Nog and Nerwen reach the conclusion Zil may have found G55 a wolf, sally jumps on it by picking on G55's choice of words (a really savage blow) when she laments Zil's death. She disappears for hours again, and then says she might still want to keep her around for a bit because it's fun to watch her stew - but this is obviously not the case because in her next post she wonders why we haven't killed her already. I think sally was one of the strongest pushers for a G55 lynch - granted, she wasn't as loud as some of the others, but she was pretty consistent in her suspicion. I may take the moral highground because I was about the only one who ended up not voting for her, but especially in hindsight it's a bit hard to see what eventually made G55 so suspicious to deserve all but two of the votes.

Now we reach sally's first major contribution. She quotes Inzil's vote for G55 and suggests his phrasing (totality of circumstance) seems like a possible seer hint. She mentions several times the suspicious placement of her Day 1 vote - at least if G55 had been a wolf. This gives me the weird feeling that we're supposed to interpret it as following: If G55 is a wolf, sally is suspicious. If G55 is not a wolf, sally is not suspicious. Yeah I know it may not be that simple and an innocent could well have said it, but it would be very convenient for a wolf, and it would explain why sally stressed it so.
Sally grants that it wouldn't have made sense for Inzil to dream of G55 on night 1 but proceeds to say she doesn't suspect G55 because of a possible dream but because of her actions. She clearly started off by basing her suspicion on Inzil's opinions, though.
Then she agrees with Lommy who said I'm enjoying myself too much to be innocent. She (who has played with me countless times before) asks if I always refer to the cobbler as a she. This is of course highly subjective but I think she should have known better (at the very least after it was explained on the thread), and her reasoning looks therefore like grasping at straws. She cites G55 and me as possible recipients for her vote, and says she won't vote for Menel (for being amusing) or Nog (because he and G55 are not in cahoots).
In a later post, she calls for others to discuss me. She has no real points against me though (apart from a too happy to be good attitude), but she apparently wishes to bring me under the spotlight.
Right after that, she asks:
Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?
What exactly is this for? We don't find the cobbler until he's dead. We can't do anything about the cobbler. It's the first sentence that caught my attention. It basically says, "We want to find the cobbler!" while the second sentence works to cover the question's real nature. I think it's extremely creepy.

Later she votes for G55 (because I'm not an option) and says that cobbler or wolf, she's evil. I don't know at which point she came up with G55 being the cobbler, but what I noted is that she's awfully eager to get G55 lynched - no matter what, she has to die. And in my experience, it's usually wolves who show that kind of fervour when trying to get someone lynched. I remember several games of choosing a new main suspect each day and going strongly after them, one at a time, until we could secure the wolf victory. Sally's campaign against G55 reminds me of that.

DAY 3.
I may be biased by now, but this doesn't sit right with me:
If we lynch an innocent toDay, yeah, it's a pickle, but it's still not the doom you present it to be at the moment.
Unless of course you're just trying to destroy village morale, in which case, do feel free to continue your attempts, because it won't work on me.
Because lynching an innocent today is doom. It would only take one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow and we would've lost it.

And that's it. For Legate's information, my vote for sally yesterday wasn't retaliation - it was a reaction to a suspicion that made no sense and seemed both opportunistic and testing the ice for a possible cobbler reaction at the same time. It was a quick decision based on a gut feeling, but after an analysis, my logic supports my gut.

[Aganzir]

Aganzir - fairly innocuous post. However some suspicion of me and also keeps Menel out of her 'guilty' list yet specifically mentions being unsure of him. Didn't like the way I talked about the cobbler. Out of nowhere states that Nerwen is a wolf.
Just in case it wasn't clear, my first post(s) weren't serious at all. I didn't really suspect you, and I said Nerwen was a wolf because she joked I'd do that after she defended me against something. That's quite a flimsy excuse for a vote.

[Nerwen]

Back and reading.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by sally to Nog
If we lynch an innocent toDay, yeah, it's a pickle, but it's still not the doom you present it to be at the moment.
Unless of course you're just trying to destroy village morale, in which case, do feel free to continue your attempts, because it won't work on me.
Because lynching an innocent today is doom. It would only take one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow and we would've lost it.
Ye-es– but that's not what Nog was talking about, as is pretty clear from the subsequent posting.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and I just want this noted, before I say anything else: my connection was playing up like crazy the last few hours, and stopped me from saying all I'd have liked. Or I would have commented more on the folly, in this game, of lynching someone to remove a source of distraction/controversy– cf. my treasure's "we pretty much have to know what she is". I cannot say it's necessarily a sign of guilt, though, since G55 herself made the same argument. Still, I can't say I like it.

Now, what to make of Nogrod's reaction at the start of toDay? He must have honestly not registered Glirdan's role– a quite understandable mistake, given that a.) it wasn't mentioned in the narration, b.) there'd been no reason to suspect him and c.) punitive modfires of special roles are almost unheard-of.

From then on, I'm not sure. A wolf might have thought he saw the chance for a quick victory, provided he, his buddies and the cobbler could get it together, but been unwilling to come right out in case something went amiss. Or an innocent might well have just panicked.

[Nerwen]

Other headache-inducers:

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.

Kath at #196 (I'm working backwards here) has some interesting theories about why Lommy might have been killed, and some good comments on living players– but again, this includes a completely out-of-context reference of Agan's "accusation" of me, which was actually clearly a joke. (Drawing a longbow, I suppose it might have been preparation for a false reveal– but if that's why Kath mentions, she doesn't say so.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't really know what to make of Nog's attitude at the start of the day, what with missing Glirdan's role and all. Given how doom and gloom he was, he looks like an innocent who's just given up - but then there's the whole "what if he was just doing that on purpose to make me think that?" argument. I don't think I really want to draw any conclusions from that, specifically.

Okay, so Glirdan, in fact, did not say anything almost at all, basically only one of his posts being somewhat relevant, and that mentioning G55 in totally ambiguous way and also Nog in slightly defensive way, but that's it. Basically a non-appearing Cobbler.
Pretty much this. I feel bad for Kitanna. I do, however, remember him going a bit after G55 yesterday rather early, which might make it more likely that someone he thought was a wolf was on that bandwagon early. That might be the first place I look once I've caught up with today.

Summa summarum - the people she suspected are the ones I find rather suspicious too, so I wouldn't be too surprised about that the motive for her death might have been, apart from what I suggested above, simply that she was suspecting a Wolf, or even several Wolves. However that kind of reasoning has not been very common among Wolves lately, I think (or at least when I was last playing), and also, she certainly wasn't the only one who suspected those people. Again, if the reason was the opposite and the WWs wanted to frame somebody up, this is rather an extensive list, so not sure if that would work (if she suspected heavily just one person, fine, I could understand that). I have not been able to find anything that would point to her looking like a Ranger in her posts, which is a motive I would have expected from the WWs the most. Maybe the WWs just feared her being a sharp player and wanted to get rid of her, then. I would bet something between that, a Wolf on the list and/or the "no track in the voting list" idea I mentioned earlier. I wouldn't put that past Agan, for instance, to get rid of Lommy in such a manner (since she just briefly dropped suspecting her at that point, so there won't be immediate connection between them), of course we still have the full amount of Wolves, the whole pack needed a decisive motivation.
I've read and re-read this, and the only thing it seems to me you're actually saying here is that the Lommy kill probably wasn't done to frame anyone, which is fairly obvious, isn't it? She wasn't being suspected really at all (I mentioned a few things yesterday, but if I recall correctly I'm the only one that did.)

How nicely you manage to get under the skin of a possible wolf-train of thought!
G55 did the same. Look how that turned out. :rolleyes:

After Day 1, much of the focus of conversations was on G55, who warned us that we should really look around at other people. A wolf in this case was probably trying to make sure that didn't happen. So we should be looking for someone who, during Day 2, kept trying to redirect suspicion onto G55.


I saw you mention later that Nog fits this description, but I seem to recall Sally doing a bit of the same. I'll go back and look here in a little while.

I'd also like everyone to remember that if two innocents vote for a different innocent, the wolves are free to do as they please with the lynch.
It's actually one, provided the wolves pile on their votes first. That's rather more scary, I think.

Voted sally but looks like she's getting sure about Nog and Agan being evil.
Re: Lommy. If that's so, though, why follow Agan's vote?

What exactly is this for? We don't find the cobbler until he's dead. We can't do anything about the cobbler. It's the first sentence that caught my attention. It basically says, "We want to find the cobbler!" while the second sentence works to cover the question's real nature. I think it's extremely creepy.

A lot of what you're saying makes sense to me, Agan, but this quote looks to me like Sally's is asking for thoughts about lynching the cobbler - which, indeed, is something we could have done about them.

Oh, and I just want this noted, before I say anything else: my connection was playing up like crazy the last few hours, and stopped me from saying all I'd have liked. Or I would have commented more on the folly, in this game, of lynching someone to remove a source of distraction/controversy– cf. my treasure's "we pretty much have to know what she is". I cannot say it's necessarily a sign of guilt, though, since G55 herself made the same argument. Still, I can't say I like it.

True enough, my pearl, but (at least in my case) the G55 vote wasn't exclusively to get rid of a source of distraction. There were legitimate reasons to suspect G55 yesterday, and knowing her role shed light on several people (most notably Nog and Sally for their day 1 votes.)

[Nerwen]

Well, well, it seems to be The Nerwen Show, Starring Nerwen at present, doesn't it?

Look, I'll tell you what's making me somewhat uneasy abut Nog right now– it's not, of course, that he made a mistake, nor is it that that he opened the Day by rushing in to ask about the tiebreaker rule. It's that he feels the need to offer, twice, a fairly elaborate explanation of *why* he did so:

#175. (In response to Sally at #173 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670961&postcount=173).)
Oops... I'm so used to bad news I had totally ignored that Glirdy was the cobbler (from a neutral POV: oh what a role wasted there...).

Well, that changes things.

Hah, I was already entertaining the idea of "revealing" myself as the cobbler and trying to lure the wolves or/and the cobbler into the open - but the tie-votes -ruling kind of destroyed the idea. Good I didn't do that. It would have looked pretty odd to reveal oneself as a dead-person's role.

#183 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670980&postcount=183) (Extract from mid-length post in response to Legate at #181. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670977&postcount=181))
How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more...:(

But yes, that is redundant now.

What I mean is, that's going to lot of trouble merely to justify having asked this:

#170.
What was the final ruling about two people tied in votes? Double-lynch, no-lynch, first to gain votes, last to gain...?

It is quite important.

Also, the sequence of reactions he gives at #175 seems rather off, doesn't it? You all see what I'm talking about, right? (To be fair, though– an innocent Nog would know he'd come under fair heavy suspicion toDay, and as we saw yesterDay, nervous innocents can tie themselves in some serious knots.)

Note: as this goes to press, I see my one and only has posted, but i haven't read it yet.

EDIT:word left out.

[Meneltarmacil]

Menel - was talking about 'influential' wolves not necessarily loudmouths. I do think this has been misrepresented. There is a different between having an effect within the game and being a loudmouth. Thinks Inzil's post is suspicious and almost - praises Nog - for noticing and questioning it. Votes Inzil. This is quite random. There hasn't really been much in the way of suspicions and reasoning. Following a wolf-buddy's lead?

If I had, I wouldn't have gone after Nogrod today. I have been a wolf before and seen reminders from other wolves during daytime. Inzil really looked like he was doing the same.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Agan
What exactly is this for? We don't find the cobbler until he's dead. We can't do anything about the cobbler. It's the first sentence that caught my attention. It basically says, "We want to find the cobbler!" while the second sentence works to cover the question's real nature. I think it's extremely creepy.
A lot of what you're saying makes sense to me, Agan, but this quote looks to me like Sally's is asking for thoughts about lynching the cobbler - which, indeed, is something we could have done about them.
I think it's her use of the word "find" that Agan is querying there, though. (And there's also what I said, that it's been normal procedure to lynch cobbler-suspects for some time anyway.)

Originally Posted by Kath
Menel - was talking about 'influential' wolves not necessarily loudmouths. I do think this has been misrepresented. There is a different between having an effect within the game and being a loudmouth. Thinks Inzil's post is suspicious and almost - praises Nog - for noticing and questioning it. Votes Inzil. This is quite random. There hasn't really been much in the way of suspicions and reasoning. Following a wolf-buddy's lead?
If I had, I wouldn't have gone after Nogrod today. I have been a wolf before and seen reminders from other wolves during daytime. Inzil really looked like he was doing the same.
What, you've never heard of "wolf-on-wolf"?!

[Meneltarmacil]

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

I saw you mention later that Nog fits this description, but I seem to recall Sally doing a bit of the same. I'll go back and look here in a little while.

Shasta, please read the second half of my post. I am not letting Sally off the hook either.

[Nerwen]

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?
Because he's come under more suspicion than most, of course. He knows it, too– hence, I think, the jittery over-explaining of his opening post that he's been doing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?



Shasta, please read the second half of my post. I am not letting Sally off the hook either.

I'm aware, Menel. I wasn't saying anything against you, merely noting that Sally also fit the parameters you'd laid down, in my opinion.

[Nerwen]

Shasta, Legate, Nerwen!!! :eek: :)

Just thought about new openings and tried to think who are the persons who have received little or no suspicion thus far... Scary list.

Okay. No time to pursue that or any other combination of players right now. Hopefully something better, later.

PS. I still suspect Sally though, because of her totally unmerited and sudden buddy-buddying and tip-toeing from yesterDay.
Well, why not a compromise, Noggins, my dear? It could be Shasta, Legate and Sally. The first two weren't that keen on lynching G55 until Sally became the alternative, were they?

Actually, there's no reason anyone should be written off at this stage. For instance, Kath looks innocent for meta-reasons (not knowing who had been lynched on Day One)– but a Kathwolf could have been too busy either to check the narration, or talk to her packmates on Night Two.

[Aganzir]

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.
Are you talking about the one you quoted earlier? What bugged me about it was that sally seemed to be downplaying the importance of lynching a wolf today - although granted, the situation wasn't as serious as Nog made it seem.

Given how doom and gloom he was, he looks like an innocent who's just given up - but then there's the whole "what if he was just doing that on purpose to make me think that?" argument. I don't think I really want to draw any conclusions from that, specifically.
Me neither.

It's actually one, provided the wolves pile on their votes first. That's rather more scary, I think.
True. However, it would require every wolf to be here at the same time, otherwise it might go wrong. And there's still the ranger.
Anyway, so far (I think) only Legate and Kath have voted. I hope either Nog or one of them is a wolf... But then, the wolves can't afford to make any too risky moves yet because the situation will soon turn against them if the ranger makes a save.

Re: Lommy. If that's so, though, why follow Agan's vote?
Ditto to that.

A lot of what you're saying makes sense to me, Agan, but this quote looks to me like Sally's is asking for thoughts about lynching the cobbler - which, indeed, is something we could have done about them.
Nope - we could've lynched the cobbler, but we couldn't have known it before he was dead. She's talking about finding the cobbler. We can't find the cobbler. Do you see what I mean?

I have to leave very soon and I won't be back before deadline. I'd prefer to lynch sally or Legate. Is there anyone around?
edit: apparently at least Nerwen. :p

[Aganzir]

Well, why not a compromise, Noggins, my dear? It could be Shasta, Legate and Sally. The first two weren't that keen on lynching G55 until Sally became the alternative, were they?

Actually, there's no reason anyone should be written off at this stage. For instance, Kath looks innocent for meta-reasons (not knowing who had been lynched on Day One)– but a Kathwolf could have been too busy either to check the narration, or talk to her packmates on Night Two.
My thoughts exactly. If she's busy during the days, there's no reason to assume she'd have any more time at night.

I'm still entertaining the possibility Menel could be a wolf as well (or basically anyone), but sally and Legate are the ones I'm the most worried about.

[Aganzir]

Okay, I've got to go.

++SALLY

I really really hope to lynch her today.

[Nogrod]

I'd prefer to lynch sally or Legate. Is there anyone around?Suits me.

We need to be careful in general though, as the more we spread the vote the more influental the wolf-votes become. And I know this isn't exactly making my own position easier, but one has to consider that - while hoping that at least one of thos who already voted was a wolf, preferable both - even if that sounds a bit silly as certainly the wolves wouldn't like to spread their votes when this near victory.

EDIT: X'd with Agan

[Nogrod]

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?
I'm having yet another "What?" -feeling... bah. Nevermind.

Leg -> Nog
Kath -> Agan
Agan -> Sally

So three votes and three vote-receivers.

Yes the ranger may give us one more Day if we get it wrong toDay, but that's a chance of 1/6 (as the ranger may also protect a wolf) - and to that must be added the possibility that the ranger is lynched, which actually isn't 1/8 but nearer 1/4 because the wolves can more or less sway the vote away from themselves, especially now as we have already three different candidates who have been voted.

That said, I must admit to some pessimism at the point.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, why not a compromise, Noggins, my dear? It could be Shasta, Legate and Sally. The first two weren't that keen on lynching G55 until Sally became the alternative, were they?
Ah, but my dewdrop, you'll note I also voted G55 Day 1.

Nope - we could've lynched the cobbler, but we couldn't have known it before he was dead. She's talking about finding the cobbler. We can't find the cobbler. Do you see what I mean?
Yes, I see what you mean now. You were objecting to Sally saying we could "find" the cobbler. Still, though, it isn't like the innocents aren't looking for the cobbler just like they're looking for the wolves, even if the wolves are a higher priority.

I'm not necessarily opposed to lynching Sally, but Legate I haven't really given a fair read to - I notice he and Nog have been going at it for most of the day (what there's been of it) and I still can't quite shake the feeling that Nog is up to something.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

An interesting note - since Legate's vote for Nog, everyone has posted. Since Kath's vote for Agan, everyone but Sally and Legate has posted.

Now, think for a moment. All it takes today is one innocent voting another innocent, and the wolves can all three jump on that vote and win (due to the rule about tie votes.) However, neither Legate's nor Kath's votes have been jumped on. Why might that be?

One possibility, obviously, is that the votes were made by wolves (both examples in this case are singular - I'm not saying both Kath and Legate are wolves together.)

In fact, if we look at it that way, it looks doubly bad for Legate - both in that his vote for Nog was not jumped on and that he hasn't himself been around to jump on Kath's for Agan. But then, would a wolf want to vote so early in a situation like this?

In Kath's case, she didn't vote with Legate, voting Agan instead. I'm having a hard time drawing conclusions from this, though - mostly because I don't really have much to go on with her one way or the other.

[Nogrod]

Now, think for a moment. All it takes today is one innocent voting another innocent, and the wolves can all three jump on that vote and win (due to the rule about tie votes.) However, neither Legate's nor Kath's votes have been jumped on. Why might that be?Well, as has been speculated, there is the (minor) chance the ranger denies their Night-kill and thus, if they come out in the open toDay, we have 4-3 majority toMorrow... So maybe that is the reason they are careful not to show themselves that openly.

The happier reason would be that at least one wolf has already been forced to vote by RL reasons and thus they haven't that much of a leeway at the moment.

[Nerwen]

An interesting note - since Legate's vote for Nog, everyone has posted. Since Kath's vote for Agan, everyone but Sally and Legate has posted.

Now, think for a moment. All it takes today is one innocent voting another innocent, and the wolves can all three jump on that vote and win (due to the rule about tie votes.) However, neither Legate's nor Kath's votes have been jumped on. Why might that be?

One possibility, obviously, is that the votes were made by wolves (both examples in this case are singular - I'm not saying both Kath and Legate are wolves together.)
Or made *on* wolves. Or a combination.

Or no wolves have voted yet, and Shastawolf and Nogwolf are just waiting for their comrade, Sallywolf, to arrive... :eek:

EDIT:X'd with Nog
EDIT2: Or Menelwolf, whatever.

[Nerwen]

You know, I'm quite curious to find out whether any of this "Oh noes! The wolves just have to do x and y and z" talk is actually coming from the wolves.:D

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Or made *on* wolves. Or a combination.

Or no wolves have voted yet, and Shastawolf and Nogwolf are just waiting for their comrade, Sallywolf, to arrive... :eek:

EDIT:X'd with Nog
EDIT2: Or Menelwolf, whatever.

Well, clearly, you, myself, and Nogwolf should probably decide whether to vote Agan or Sally and finish up this charade. :p

[Nogrod]

In any case, all innocent votes on other innocents are things they look for, and which help them play it out toDay. Also, in case we would be getting it right, they would do what needs to be done to divert the vote from one of them to one of us as they are so near victory.

That actually brings forth an interesting idea. If there is (and hopefully there is) at least one wolf among those already voted they would object to lynching her and tried to support someone else.

So let's dare them and see what happens?

So how about we lynch Sally? Do you see merit in lynching Agan or me instead?

Haha... you mindreader you...
Well, clearly, you, myself, and Nogwolf should probably decide whether to vote Agan or Sally and finish up this charade.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I'm not sure I want to add another candidate at this late stage, so it's probably between Sally, Nog, and Agan for me.

I'm fairly trusting of Agan at this point, so I doubt it'll be her.

There have been points made against both Sally and Nog - but since my most recent post, I probably feel worst about Legate, and all the back-and-forth he's been doing with Nog takes on new meaning in that light.

I don't know if I'll laugh or cry if it turns out Legate and Nog are both wolves after all they've been saying to each other, but it's likely to be one of the two. :smokin:

[Nerwen]

*waves to dead players reading the thread*

Well, Pitch, Zil, G55, Lommy, Glirdan–

I'm sure you've by now worked out that I, Shasta and Nog can't possibly be packmates.

This may be of some practical use to Sally or Menel (unless they're both evil, of course.)

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In any case, all innocent votes on other innocents are things they look for, and which help them play it out toDay. Also, in case we would be getting it right, they would do what needs to be done to divert the vote from one of them to one of us as they are so near victory.

That actually brings forth an interesting idea. If there is (and hopefully there is) at least one wolf among those already voted they would object to lynching her and tried to support someone else.

So let's dare them and see what happens?

So how about we lynch Sally? Do you see merit in lynching Agan or me instead?

Haha... you mindreader you...

Sally is a possibility. She did seem to be driving the G55 wagon on Day 2 with subtle pushes here and there, like I said - the only problem I'm currently having with her is that I have this lingering feeling from D1 that a lot of the suspicion heading Sally's way was coming from her and G55 being linked as a wolf pair, and since that's clearly not the case I'm trying to decide if I'm being unfairly biased or not.

[Nogrod]

I would be happy to vote Legate as well, but one more candidate at this point would probably be a mistake that could help the wolves to steer the lynch in case they needed to and at least it might help them hide better when they weren't possibly forced to vote similarly together.

So I think we're stuck with the three: Sally, Agan and myself.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The trouble is Sally hasn't said anything today, other than that she won't be here, which gives me nothing to go off of.

I realize RL gets in the way at the most inopportune times, but it does get a little frustrating when it happens to so many people at once. :(

[satansaloser2005]

You know, I'm quite curious to find out whether any of this "Oh noes! The wolves just have to do x and y and z" talk is actually coming from the wolves.:D

At least some of it has to be....

I am so tired I can't even a coherent sentence. Voting now. Sleeping now.

++Nog

For fishiness and general plotting, trying to use my (apparently misplaced) trust in him against me, and what I still think is fear-mongering toDay. If he's not a wolf, feel free to lynch me toMorrow for my stupidity.

Note: I have no problem killing Agan either, but Nog's lynch will reveal moe, in my opinion, and Agan's clearly not the cobbler (also note Nog's nutty cobbler plan which...needed to be mentioned why, given that the cobbler's dead?), so....yeah. I'm sorry I can't say more now, but I have actually fallen asleep twice trying to do this post.

Voted now. Sleeping now. Would be nice not to die now. That would be bad. Sleeping now.

[Nogrod]

Well Shasta, you have just made wawer a bit... as I just remembered that one of the things that made me suspect Sally the most was on D2 when she appeared to say she wishes to see G55 to simmer but not be lynched when she had just made her "wolf-slip" and when people acknowledged it she turned on her heels pretty fast.

Now wolves often are opportunists as well, but some of the weight of that suspicion clearly lightens when G55 turned out ordo...


EDIT: X'd with Sally's... vote.

[Nerwen]

I would be happy to vote Legate as well, but one more candidate at this point would probably be a mistake that could help the wolves to steer the lynch in case they needed to and at least it might help them hide better when they weren't possibly forced to vote similarly together.

So I think we're stuck with the three: Sally, Agan and myself.
I think you're right... but of course another thing the wolves could be waiting for is for an innocent to get a second vote by another innocent.

Let's not forget that.

EDIT:X'd since my jewel.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

And there's Sally with a vote for Nog, just as Nog he may be reconsidering Sally. Curiouser and curiouser. I may need to re-evaluate my trust of Agan, as well - I just thought of something.

[Nogrod]

Note: I have no problem killing Agan either, but Nog's lynch will reveal moeHmm, what do you think my death would reveal more?

I can see you trying to rescue yourself though, as anyone would...

This will be interesting indeed.

A ten minute game. :eek:

[Nogrod]

I'm a few minutes away from voting Sally.

Persuade me not to if you feel there is a wiser way.


Where's Menel?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You know how Boro and the phantom will sometimes do these elaborate on-thread shenanigans? Well, I've thought that's what Agan was doing virtually all game, but now I'm thinking I might have been mistaken. I've been basing my trust of her basically off this, but I suddenly have a rather bad feeling that that's the only reason I haven't looked at her very hard. Which is dangerous.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm a few minutes away from voting Sally.

Persuade me not to if you feel there is a wiser way.


Where's Menel?

Are you sure, Nog? There's something in Sally's post that I'm considering very, very hard.

And good question. I'd rather he be here, considering.

[Nogrod]

Btw. it would be a rare coincidence that all the three playing actively around the most important DL thus far, maybe the game-decider, would be innocents...

Also, if Menel just pops in to vote, I'll say he's most probably a wolf.

Bah... where do I fit Sally and Legate both then?

[Nerwen]

Btw. it would be a rare coincidence that all the three playing actively around the most important DL thus far, maybe the game-decider, would be innocents...
I'll say.

[Nogrod]

I'm having a bad feeling about this... but I don't think there is another reasonable chance.

++ Sally

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Sally

Maybe not so much what I thought.

Edit: X'ed with Nog.

[Nogrod]

The wolves will not vote then, right?

Well they don't need to...

:eek::smokin:

EDIT: X'd with Shasta, which kind of made what I said redundant...

[Nerwen]

Time. I really don't know what to do, so

++Sally

EDIT: X'd since Nog's vote-post. And with DL, it seems. Kit, are you counting my vote?
EDIT2:fixed bolding.

[Kitanna]

Galadriel's suicide and then Lommy's death had left everyone in a frenzy. The village cobbler may have died, but two innocents had gone with him. Too many good folk were dying without bringing the real culprits to justice.

They had to bring down one of the wolves' cohorts today or they'd be doomed.

“It has to be Nog!” Part of the tavern rose up. It was generally agreed the retired barkeep had always been a problem.

“No! It's that girl Sally.” The town bicycle was a shifty one. Besides, with snow on the ground it wasn't like she was taking her bicycle anywhere. What else was she to do than work with wolves?

Debate raged until the sun began to sink in the sky. Finally an angry group grabbed Sally by the hair and dragged her to the back. A funnel was forced in her mouth while a bottle of Inzil's homemade rat poison was poured down.

Sally coughed violently against the poison. Foam, tinged pink with blood, formed at the corners of her mouth. Her body stiffened, eyes rolling into her head. She spat up blood and was gone. The mob searched her pockets to find a contract. Signed in her blood and with a bloody pawprint it was clear she had been among those you made a pact with the wolves.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Aganzir
Kath

[Kitanna]

Their companion had been taken down. The two other cohorts set off looking for another victim. This one was for them though. The wolves could not feast on these bones.

But who to pick? They prowled about, looking into windows and checking locks. The sun would be up soon. A decision had to be made. They picked their victim. It was time to make someone suffer for what had happened to Sally. The whole village should burn for that.

Something was wrong when they tried to pick the lock. “Try again,”one hissed in the darkness.

“It feels like someone jammed it from inside. Let's just break a window.”

“We might be heard. Try again!”

An arrow flew through the darkness and lodged into the door's wood. The two sped from the scene. It was getting too late. The pink hue of morning was beginning on the horizon. Tonight they had been bested.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Aganzir
Kath

Day 4 Begins

[Nerwen]

Nice work, Ranger!

[Kath]

Yeah go Ranger! This puts us at 2 wolves and 5 innocents right? That's better odds than it looked like it was going to be!

I'm disappearing for Father's Day duties but will be back this evening.

[Aganzir]

It pays to be selfish.

I'm the ranger.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here, and I really really have to apologize but I don't think I will be very active, this time not voting early, but being probably absent until very close before DL (RL duties, I have one last exam coming tomorrow morning, about 6 hours before DL. So I can be active after that, but not before, I fear). Also I haven't had the time to read the thread very carefully as to what happened yesterDay, the main thing I gather was lynching a Wolf at last, however preceded by some funny debates. In any case I want to recheck and reevaluate my opinion on Nog, since at least from what I remember, he was one of those voicing the suspicion of sally from quite long time ago, and he probably had the chance to vote somebody else yesterDay if he wanted to save a packmate.

If there can be a vote-count or something from yesterDay for quick review, I'd be very grateful for it.

It pays to be selfish.

I'm the ranger.
We definitely have one more Day (or even more, in fact, even in the worst case). I will try to use toDay as well as I could, but, see above... shall be back much later (I said originally my participation in this game might not be 100%, but right now it's the worst moment).

[Aganzir]

I'm willing to bet Nog and Shasta are innocent. Not only because they both voted for sally - their behaviour doesn't look wolfish at all.

I'm quite sure Legate is a wolf, and I'd say the last wolf is between Nerwen and Kath. Yes Nerwen also voted for sally (even if she xed with the other two votes), but she must have seen it couldn't have been anyone else than her (as Nog wouldn't have voted for himself and there was not enough support for lynching me). Nerwen is a sneaky one who isn't afraid to sacrifice her packmates, and some of the things she said yesterday didn't sit entirely right with me. More about that later, though - now I'll have a look at Legate.

[Nogrod]

I think the single most interesting thing about yesterDay's lynch was that none really tried to save Sally.

The wolves were soo near total victory yesterDay so they should have tried to make sure their numbers stayed. Now what should we make of that?

1) They were so confident of their position in the village that they didn't need to (especially with the seer gone) save her but thoguht helping lynch her gives them more credit?

2) They were in such dire straits they didn't dare to vote against Sally fearing to be caught as defending their mate?

3) They were not around to defend her?

Like I said in the end yesterDay it is remarkable if the three active players playing near the DL were all innocents. It would be remarkable.

But a lot depends on what is the correct answer between alternatives 1-3.


I'll be back later to try and see if there is anything to help in answering that question.


The votes from yesterDay:

Leg -> Nog
Kath -> Agan
Agan -> Sally
Sally -> Nog 2
Nog -> Sally 2
Shasta -> Sally 3
Nerwen -> Sally 4