Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Meneltarmacil]

Welcome to Tol-in-Gaurhoth XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold.

As the Council of Elrond debates what to do with the Ring, Saruman begins his attack on Rohan. His first target is the town of Isenbridge, a strategic point necessary to the conquest of the Westfold.

The wizard cannot risk open war this early in the game, so in order to seize the town, he has sent three werewolves to destroy it from within.

Unknown to Saruman, though, he's not the only wizard with an interest in this town...

Roles

Wolves (3): Kill one villager during the Night. May PM at Night.

Radagast the Brown (Seer): Talks to the animals every Night; they tell him/her the role of one villager.

Votes: Votes are not retractable. To be considered valid, each vote must be bolded and preceded by two plus signs, like this:
++My Invisible Friend Bob. In the event of a tie, the lynchee will be chosen at random from among the top vote-getters.

Other Rules: Anybody who does not post for an entire day or does not vote for two days in a row will be modfired unless they provide a good reason on the Admin Thread.

The deadline is 2 pm GMT, or 9 am EST. The Moderator's own stupidity resulted in this thread going up two hours late.
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It is now Night 1. Wolves may PM, and I'll need a name from Radagast.

The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Inziladun: Baker
Kitanna: Cranky hermit
Meneltarmacil: Fisherman
Nerwen: Horse trader of doubtful integrity
Nessa Telrunya: Midwife
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

[Meneltarmacil]

A new day dawned over the town of Isenbridge. The sun shone over the green plains and the river sparkled under its gaze. The sounds of the birds and the river, however, were drowned out by those of Kitanna and Pitchwife having their usual argument about some trivial issue.

Coppermirror was attempting to trade some of his toys to Nerwen for a good, strong horse, but was getting frustrated over the horse trader's refusal to let him examine the animals closely.

A pleasant smell wafted out from the tavern along with the sound of cheerful music. Inziladun's pastries had been selling well that day, though Eomer wished Sally and Shasta would take their music elsewhere before the repetition drove him insane.

Then it happened.

A scream came from the riverside. Everyone rushed down to see what was the matter, except for Galadriel55 who continued weaving her tapestry as if nothing had happened.

The villagers arrived at Meneltarmacil's boathouse to find Nessa Telrunya looking over a horrifying sight. The fisherman's body lay on the docks, gutted open just like the trout he had caught. Three sets of bloody paw prints surrounded the corpse. It was clear that this was the work of werewolves.

Someone in the village was responsible, and accusations began to fly. At the same time, a gallows began to take shape in the town square.
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The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Inziladun: Baker
Kitanna: Cranky hermit
Nerwen: Horse trader of doubtful integrity
Nessa Telrunya: Midwife
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1

It is now Day 1. Wolves may no longer PM; everybody may now speak openly.

[Kitanna]

Gutted and in the prime of his life. How sad.

Edit: Oh hooray, finally, I hit the thread first! Thanks half day at work

[Coppermirror]

How saddening to hear of Meneltarmacil's fate. Did he perish in the NIGHT? I will carve a fine toy Meara in his honour, and lay it on his grave. For free, even.

Last NIGHT I slept in my workshop after a hard day's work, and heard nothing. To think that there are three werewolves on the loose is a great worry. If the village falls, there will be no children to sell my wares to; and indeed, I will no longer be alive to sell them.

If I'm correct, we have only two DAYS in which to catch at least one werewolf, or else perish. I have never heard such a fearsome tale. We cannot afford mistakes, and we cannot and must not rely on our Seer. Each and every one of us must be alert - except for our furry opponents, whom I suggest should laze around all NIGHT or better yet leave the village.

I do not leave my workshop often, but there are villains amongst us, and they must be found. Why don't we ask that pair of ne'er do well wandering minstrels, satansaloser2005 and Shastanis Althreduin, where they were last NIGHT? Also, Nerwen is looking very suspicious, regardless of whether she's wolfish. Why can't I look more closely at the horses, hmm?

[Nessa Telrunya]

A terrifying occurence indeed. :(

I had arrived at the boathouse to deliver a poultice for Meneltarmacil, as he had commented on a scratch he'd recieved from a rusty nail - making it quite difficult to operate a boat. But lo and behold! a horrific sight! Even to a healer the image was heavy to bear.

[Kitanna]

If I'm correct, we have only two DAYS in which to catch at least one werewolf, or else perish. I have never heard such a fearsome tale. We cannot afford mistakes, and we cannot and must not rely on our Seer. Each and every one of us must be alert - except for our furry opponents, whom I suggest should laze around all NIGHT or better yet leave the village.
Looking at this village's make-up, we've some pretty crafty folk. No one will be lazing about, not even these furry intruders. ;)

Unfortunately I can't stay for early Day 1 banter. I do have work and then mandatory work "fun" after hours. :rolleyes: I imagine I'll be back in ten hours at the latest. Don't have too much fun without me.

[Inziladun]

How saddening to hear of Meneltarmacil's fate. Did he perish in the NIGHT?

It seems clear that the devilry did indeed occur in the Night. Most disconcerting.

Last NIGHT I slept in my workshop after a hard day's work, and heard nothing. To think that there are three werewolves on the loose is a great worry.

Hmm. That wouldn't be a preemptive defense, would it?

x/d with Kitanna

[Coppermirror]

Hmm. That wouldn't be a preemptive defense, would it?

No, although I see why you might think so. I'm more curious about whether anyone else heard anything during the NIGHT.

[Coppermirror]

Forgive the double post, but now I've got to go too. (Time-zones are tricky things, and it's nearly 3AM.) I'll be back in seven or so hours. Good luck, everyone but the wolves.

[Inziladun]

Coppermirror seems to be making a point of distancing (her? him?) self from the wolves.

In other news, it's rather a hindrance that there's only one Gifted to help out in this game, as neither Radagast nor anyone else can have any protection during the Night.

I guess the only up side to having a single Gifted is at least it narrows down the chance of a jumpy one looking wolvish and getting lynched. With three baddies to one Gifted, the odds of snaring a wolf on suspicious behavior are better than getting Radagast.

[Nessa Telrunya]

In other news, it's rather a hindrance that there's only one Gifted to help out in this game, as neither Radagast nor anyone else can have any protection during the Night.

I guess the only up side to having a single Gifted is at least it narrows down the chance of a jumpy one looking wolvish and getting lynched. With three baddies to one Gifted, the odds of snaring a wolf on suspicious behavior are better than getting Radagast.

This is true. But another upside is that with so few of us villagers, everyone will be on their toes - large numbers tend to lead to a measure of complacency and reliance on the loudmouths for opinions. It'll be easy to see if someone neglects to put their own thoughts out in favor of joining the bandwagon.

[Inziladun]

This is true. But another upside is that with so few of us villagers, everyone will be on their toes - large numbers tend to lead to a measure of complacency and reliance on the loudmouths for opinions. It'll be easy to see if someone neglects to put their own thoughts out in favor of joining the bandwagon.

Yes indeed. Smaller villages make it harder on submarines to stay low, as well.

Since Nog isn't here, does anyone want to volunteer to be the official sub-hunter?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Since Nog isn't here, does anyone want to volunteer to be the official sub-hunter?

I've played the part before, m'lord, and I'm not loath to do it again. ;) Perhaps I'll draw them out with a raucous merry jig or two? You see, I've got to play my original pieces quickly, before my... er, "illustrious companion" nabs them for herself. :D

[satansaloser2005]

Shasta, darling, I'm standing right here, and I'm only tone deaf, you know. :rolleyes:


(Seriously, I had no idea the game had started. Ugh.)

[Inziladun]

I've played the part before, m'lord, and I'm not loath to do it again. ;) Perhaps I'll draw them out with a raucous merry jig or two? You see, I've got to play my original pieces quickly, before my... er, "illustrious companion" nabs them for herself. :D

Just keep in mind that you only get the job as long as you stay above water yourself.
:rolleyes:

Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing.

I'll probably have to vote in about 3 hours or so. More people showing up could be helpful.

[Galadriel55]

Huh? What was that? My pail was filled, you say? Oh, thank you, whoever. Wait, what? Menel was killed? Oh goodness! What a horror!


Will be back in a couple hours' time.

[satansaloser2005]

Obviously Nessa did it. She was found at the scene, after all.

Oh, Nessa's guilteeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee and we should make her paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay....for otherwise the wolfieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees will think that they can staaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.

And such.


Honestly, I have no idea. So few suspects though. Hopefully we'll just get lucky and lynch a wolf by sheer dumb luck. (Riiiiiight. Like that'll happen.)

[Nerwen]

I do not leave my workshop often, but there are villains amongst us, and they must be found. Why don't we ask that pair of ne'er do well wandering minstrels, satansaloser2005 and Shastanis Althreduin, where they were last NIGHT? Also, Nerwen is looking very suspicious, regardless of whether she's wolfish. Why can't I look more closely at the horses, hmm?

But you *can* look closely. Just– er– not *that* closely! This spirited young filly here happens to be a little sensitive about her teeth, that's all. No, she is *not* "old enough to be your grandmother". What a peculiar thing to say about your grandmother.

No, no, there's nothing wrong with her. My good sir, that's just the breed. The...er... Eastfold Swayback.

Her temperament? Oh, delightful. A perfect mount for the more... adventurous rider. No, no, not vicious– just, as I said– spirited. Why, of course she doesn't bite! Gentle as a la– AAARRRRRGH!

[Coppermirror]

Mini summary of posts thus far:

Kitanna: Sad about Menel's death.
Coppermirror: Sad about Menel's death, says we only have 2 DAYS to catch a wolf in and must be alert, wants to know where satansaloser2005 and Shastanis Althreduin were last night. Also why she can't look at Nerwen's horses more closely.
Nessa Telrunya: Shocked to find Menel's dead body. It was a hard sight even for a healer.
Kitanna: Is sure that none of the villagers will be lazing around. Has to leave to go to work.
Inziladun: Asks Coppermirror if she gave a pre-emptive defence.
Coppermirror: Says no. Wishes the villagers luck, and leaves to sleep.
Inziladun: Says that Coppermirror seems to be distancing herself from the wolves. Says it's a hindrance that the game has only one Gifted, but that on the upside there's a higher chance of suspicious behaviour actually belonging to wolves rather than Gifted.
Nessa Telrunya: Agrees about the chances, and says that another upside is that everyone will be on their toes and won't get complacent/fail to give their thoughts/bandwagon.
Inziladun: Smaller villages make it harder for submarines to stay low. Asks for volunteers to be the sub-hunter.
Shastanis Althreduin: Is willing to be the sub-hunter and has done it before. Dances a jig. Says that satansaloser2005 will take all the best (music/dance?) pieces if he doesn't hurry.
satansaloser2005: Is standing right there and had no idea the game had started until now.
Inziladun: Shastanis Althreduin needs to keep above water in order to keep the job. Something about Kitanna seems a bit off, but "it's really a thin thing." Will have to vote in about 3 hours and more people showing up would be helpful.
Galadriel55: Shocked about Menel's death. Will be back in a few hours.
satansaloser2005: Jokingly accuses Nessa. Has no idea and hopes we'll lynch a wolf through dumb luck.
Nerwen: Is indeed a horse trader of doubtful integrity...:smokin:

They weren't many posts to summarise, alas, but I wanted to do it anyway, because in a village this size we've got to try to avoid writing off DAY 1 having meaningful content. I can't say that anyone looks very suspicious here, and that's a problem. Maybe things will pick up once voting starts.

What's a sub-hunter? Someone who hunts submarines (quiet players), maybe? Interesting that there's a custom of appointing someone to do that, if so.

Coppermirror seems to be making a point of distancing (her? him?) self from the wolves.

Yep. I wanted to say "good luck" to everyone at first, but, well, with three wolves amongst the ten I don't want to wish them luck too. I don't want newbie inexperience/enthusiasm to make me look suspicious, but on the other hand, with only two days for us to catch a werewolf in, I don't think I can afford not to pursue a louder strategy. And for the record I'm a she.

Her temperament? Oh, delightful. A perfect mount for the more... adventurous rider. No, no, not vicious– just, as I said– spirited. Why, of course she doesn't bite! Gentle as a la– AAARRRRRGH!

Oh dear...Do we need to call for the village healer? I don't think I can fix up bites on people with glue the way I can fix up toys.

[Inziladun]

What's a sub-hunter? Someone who hunts submarines (quiet players), maybe? Interesting that there's a custom of appointing someone to do that, if so.

That's pretty much it. There's no custom involved, though. There are players who are known for singling out quiet ones, but that's all.

Yep. I wanted to say "good luck" to everyone at first, but, well, with three wolves amongst the ten I don't want to wish them luck too. I don't want newbie inexperience/enthusiasm to make me look suspicious, but on the other hand, with only two days for us to catch a werewolf in, I don't think I can afford not to pursue a louder strategy. And for the record I'm a she.

All right then. Thanks for the clarification on both matters.

[Kitanna]

Twenty posts? Oh sadness, let's see what we have here. Coppermirror and Zil have said alot, looks like at a quick scan. Doesn't seem like much has happened yet though. Off and reading.

[Inziladun]

I'm going to need to vote pretty soon. 0500 hours comes early, and I may or may not be able to make it back before DL.

Not much in the way of activity to key in on, thus far.

I don't want to get after the submarines just yet, since I am voting awfully early, and it's possible some might not realize the game is on now.

Coppermirror did cause a bit of an eyebrow raise, but at any rate I can't bring myself to vote a first-timer on Day 1.

Kit still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all.

I guess I could vote Shasta or Sally for...being Shasta and Sally. :rolleyes:

x/d with Kit

[Kitanna]

Kit still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all.


I'd like a reason. I've said almost nothing.

[Inziladun]

I'd like a reason. I've said almost nothing.

Just the feel of the first couple of posts. Like I said, it's pretty thin.

[Kitanna]

Hopefully we'll just get lucky and lynch a wolf by sheer dumb luck. (Riiiiiight. Like that'll happen.)
Well it has happened before...who knows maybe it'll happen again.

There's not much I can say that hasn't been said and resaid. Most of the conversation is about our odds and the size of the village or typical IC banter. Nothing scandalous there. And by my count only Eomer and Pitch haven't shown up yet.

[Inziladun]

Ok. I do need to go to bed, but I'm going to take a chance and not vote yet.

With luck, I should be able to get back for a quick vote before DL.

[satansaloser2005]

Well it has happened before...who knows maybe it'll happen again.

True, but generally it happens to myself or Boro. He's not in this game and I'm not a werewolf, so I'd say our chances are slim. :p


I am exhausted. I need to sleep, but I have no idea who to vote for. :(

[Coppermirror]

And by my count only Eomer and Pitch haven't shown up yet.

You're right, which means that at least one wolf has posted by now for certain. Suppose I'll get back to examining the earlier posts, although I doubt I'll find anything glaring.

Coppermirror did cause a bit of an eyebrow raise

Interesting. I'm guessing that must be because of wishing everyone but the wolves luck? It doesn't seem like much, but then again, there aren't many posts to be working with.

[satansaloser2005]

There is good news: With 10 of us, and three of us being wolves, our odds of a Fenris are actually pretty decent. I hadn't previously realized there were so few of us. I feel marginally less miserable now (at least in regards to toDay's lynch).

I still don't know who to vote, however. I won't be voting Shasta for the sake of our partnership, Nerwen for the sake of not looking a posting horse dealer in the mouth, Gal for the sake of giving you a bloody Day 1 break already, you poor thing, and Mirror for being the fairest new player of them all (and for having a name with many a potential for hilarious puns later). I suppose no game is complete without a little unnecessary suspicion thrown toward Master Eomer, so perhaps I'll go with him for the sack of simplicity and curmudgeonliness, but it feels so unseemly to do so when he's not even shown up yet. We shall see. Either way, I'll be voting in the next fifteen minutes or so, and then will be off to bed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm going to need to vote pretty soon. 0500 hours comes early, and I may or may not be able to make it back before DL.

Not much in the way of activity to key in on, thus far.

I don't want to get after the submarines just yet, since I am voting awfully early, and it's possible some might not realize the game is on now.

Coppermirror did cause a bit of an eyebrow raise, but at any rate I can't bring myself to vote a first-timer on Day 1.

Kit still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all.

I guess I could vote Shasta or Sally for...being Shasta and Sally. :rolleyes:

x/d with Kit

Well, I could vote you, because I don't like you either. But I won't, because that wouldn't be how the game is supposed to be played. :)

In any case, Sally, dear, that was a horrible attempt at anything resembling rhyme-scheme. Let me think...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's a good point, but I do have to dock you a few points for considering voting someone who hasn't shown up. :p Is Eomer even aware the game's started?

[satansaloser2005]

Well, I could vote you, because I don't like you either. But I won't, because that wouldn't be how the game is supposed to be played. :)

It isn't? Well, bother. Maybe I should rethink my strategy.

In any case, Sally, dear, that was a horrible attempt at anything resembling rhyme-scheme. Let me think...

That was an attempt at getting the crowd's attention. And....well, it worked, but not in the way I hoped. I'll compose a proper song come the morrow, my pet, I promise.

[Kitanna]

Is Eomer even aware the game's started?
It's Eomer, he knows. ;)

[satansaloser2005]

That's a good point, but I do have to dock you a few points for considering voting someone who hasn't shown up. :p Is Eomer even aware the game's started?

No idea. I always check the Downs on my phone and would have missed toDay had I not been looking at Arda Cup results (which I still refuse to discuss, thank you). I may want to be a baton in his side, but I don't think I'll actually follow through. It wouldn't be fair.


EDIT: x'd with Kit. And now I feel like I'm being watched....

[satansaloser2005]

Ugh. Pitch hasn't shown up either. I considered being a crank to the grumpy old man, but again, it would be dirty of me to do so.

People who haven't shown up: Eomer, Pitch

People who are new or haven't played in a while: Nessa, Copper

Those four (and myself, obviously) are off the table. So I suppose that leaves....

++Kit

For making me feel creeped on. Really though, it's rather random, and I'm sorry, but I don't have much to deal with right now, so it's process of elimination rather than acting on suspicion at this point. :/

And with that, I shall bid you all good night. Hopefully I shall be able to wish you good Morning as well.

[Galadriel55]

Zil and coppermirror deserve a note for trying to get things going. Some observations worth mentioning coming from both of them. Me likey.

They weren't many posts to summarise, alas, but I wanted to do it anyway, because in a village this size we've got to try to avoid writing off DAY 1 having meaningful content. I can't say that anyone looks very suspicious here, and that's a problem. Maybe things will pick up once voting starts.

Don't expect anything other than banter to happen this early Day1. Things usually start to happen a bit later.

What's a sub-hunter? Someone who hunts submarines (quiet players), maybe? Interesting that there's a custom of appointing someone to do that, if so.

Huh, not really a custom as such, but some players are known for going after the submarines, pointing a gun to their heads, trying to get them to post more, and if not - lynch!

I can't say I like sally's vote, but I can't blame her either. It's a lose-lose situation.



From what I gathered DL is 9am Eastern, so I'll have an hour before DL to catch up and vote. If I got the DL wrong, sorry folks. I think it'll be enough time though, since there are so few of us, unless the DL is actually an hour earlier or something...

G'night all.

[Nerwen]

*adjusts bandages*

Just taking a break from my at-times-perilous calling of supplying YOU, the discerning customer, with the finest, most pure-blooded equines in all the Riddermark–

Where does the suspicion (and vote, now) on Kit come from, I wonder?

Here's her posts, in their entirety:

Gutted and in the prime of his life. How sad.

Edit: Oh hooray, finally, I hit the thread first! Thanks half day at work
Looking at this village's make-up, we've some pretty crafty folk. No one will be lazing about, not even these furry intruders.

Unfortunately I can't stay for early Day 1 banter. I do have work and then mandatory work "fun" after hours. I imagine I'll be back in ten hours at the latest. Don't have too much fun without me.

Twenty posts? Oh sadness, let's see what we have here. Coppermirror and Zil have said alot, looks like at a quick scan. Doesn't seem like much has happened yet though. Off and reading.
Originally Posted by Inziladun

Kit still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all.
I'd like a reason. I've said almost nothing.
Originally Posted by sally
Hopefully we'll just get lucky and lynch a wolf by sheer dumb luck. (Riiiiiight. Like that'll happen.)
Well it has happened before...who knows maybe it'll happen again.

There's not much I can say that hasn't been said and resaid. Most of the conversation is about our odds and the size of the village or typical IC banter. Nothing scandalous there. And by my count only Eomer and Pitch haven't shown up yet.
Now... there actually are a few points here, albeit minor ones. It's true she's said "almost nothing", but she's now taken quite a lot of posts to say it. Also, Post #2 is pretty much just "hey, guys, remember to suspect each other, 'bye", and Post #1 might be said have a faint "wolvish hypocrisy" vibe– though that last is a bit of a reach.

Okay. Pretty "thin", indeed, but I suppose it's enough to justify Zil's "ill-defined feeling of unease" comment, given this is Day One and there hasn't been that much else to analyse yet. Sally's vote, though, looks pretty opportunistic and her explanation sounds like hedging.

–Also– as a general thing, I find myself looking askance at people (Zil, Nessa, Sally), who paint lack of gifteds or excess of wolves as a positive thing, mostly because there's then statistically less chance of hitting the former than the latter. While true, this quite misses the point. I mean, I suppose one should always look for the silver lining and all that– but it's also often in the lupine interest to play down the village's danger. (None of this is an accusation, mind you– still much too early for that.)

EDIT:wrong word used.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

What disturbing times we live in! Not only do simple tavern lackeys have to put up with grumbles, threats and curses on an hourly basis, but good fishermen are being murdered in our very midst! It's not right, I tell you. But whodunnit?

I'm sure we can all agree that that Pitchwife has been a bit too quiet for comfort, eh? Something to hide, eh?

[Coppermirror]

This is good! Now everybody but one has shown up, and some of the people who hadn't posted much earlier have turned up with more substantial posts. Hopefully Pitchwife will make it here before the end of the DAY.

I'm not at all sure yet who I'll be voting for. I had intended to vote for either some of the quieter villagers or those who hadn't shown up yet, to avoid only finding active villagers suspicious, but as time's gone on, some quiet people have become more active. So I'll wait and see.

Eomer, a tavern lackey like you must have heard some rumours about suspicious goings-on in the village. (Aside from poor Menel's demise.) Perhaps you've heard some incriminating mutterings from drunken tavern patrons? I usually only hear the mutterings of small children as they rummage through toys.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Indeed, Coppermirror, I hear lots of rumours. All of them gibberish, I'm certain. You drown cats, apparently.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm back! And it appears quite a bit(of banter? :p ) has ocurred in my absence. There are votes already, as well! I can see the Kit suspicion as being relatively okay considering it's only day 1 with not much to go on - we're all pretty much grasping for straws.

But I'm not sure I like the way sally ends up latching onto Inzil's random unease with Kit, admittedly upon much the same reasoning. :confused:

[Nerwen]

I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.
And I agree with your last post– to the extent that since the stakes are higher than usual, the wolves might well be more active in steering the lynch than on most Day Ones. But you see, that also explains why even an experienced wolf might risk targeting someone already suspecting, rather than just sitting back letting the lynch take its course (as they can often afford to do at this point). So your logic cuts both ways, I think.

EDIT:X'd with Nessa.

[Nerwen]

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

[Nessa Telrunya]

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

But how do I feel about you latching onto my latching onto you latching onto sally? :p

[Coppermirror]

If Pitchwife doesn't post today, he'll be mod-fired. That would be great if he's a wolf, but if he's an innocent villager, it's not so good. It's 11:35 GMT now, if the internet's not lying to me, and I believe that 2:00 GMT is the deadline. (If it's not, someone please correct me.)

Worst case scenario lists:

If Pitchwife is innocent and mod-fired...
DAY 1: We lynch someone innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 6.
Also, Pitchwife is mod-fired and he's innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 5.
NIGHT 2: Wolves 3, Villagers 4.
DAY 2: We lynch someone innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 3, we lose.

Whereas if an innocent Pitchwife posts in time...
DAY 1: We lynch someone innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 6.
NIGHT 2: Wolves 3, Villagers 5.
DAY 2: We lynch someone innocent. Wolves 3, Villagers 4.
NIGHT 3: Wolves 3, Villagers 3.

So...for the purpose of avoiding losing the game in two days and not looking further than that, I suppose it doesn't matter too much whether or not we lose an innocent Pitchwife in addition, because if don't find a wolf in those days, we lose anyway. For the longer term, it's more of a problem.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

that also explains why even an experienced wolf might risk targeting someone already suspecting, rather than just sitting back letting the lynch take its course (as they can often afford to do at this point). So your logic cuts both ways, I think.

Oh absolutely. I would never discount the option of killing Sally. :p

[Inziladun]

I made it back after all, though only briefly.

My hope in postponing my vote was that something else interesting would transpire in the meantime, and Eomer and Pitch might show up. Only one of the twain though, I see.

It is a bit suspicious the way Sally latched onto what I said about Kit. Funny thing is, I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit.

Like Eomer said though, I have to wonder if a Sallywolf would be so quick to do that. I guess if she was trying to get in a vote in a hurry, it's not impossible.

Then Nerwen casts a bit of suspicion Sally's way, which Nessa responds to.

Do I stick with Kit? Go for Sally? Nessa?

Hmm.

x/d with Eomer

[Inziladun]

Right, then.

I'm going to stay with Kit. If she turns out evil, Nerwen, and especially Nessa, might be packmates. If innocent, Sally will look pretty bad in my eyes.

++Kitanna

[Shastanis Althreduin]

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

Funnily enough, I was going to say relatively the same thing... only replacing your name with Eomer's. Hmm. I do need to vote (I'm about to hit the hay), so I think I'm going to go ahead and vote for -

++Nessa

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So two votes for Kitanna. Sally and then Inzil voted for her.

Then Shasta votes for Nessa. Hrm. Is the deadline in half an hour?

[Kitanna]

Is the deadline in half an hour?

I believe it is.
I guess I woke up just in time to see votes garnered against me for being vaguely uncomfortable and creepy. Hooray.

I'll probably vote for Zil at this point. Because I don't like his "Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing." and "I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit."

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, it's almost DL, and I don't really see any developments that make me outright suspect anyone. Even with what I said earlier about sally, it's not enough to warrant a vote from me. So...

++Pitchwife

Just because I haven't heard that much from him - and I'd hate to vote for people I already know don't ring bells for me.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

At the risk of defending her and creating a sort of 'faction', there's something weird about Inzil's insistence on Kitanna. Trying to bait Coppermirror but ending up with Kit? I've just re-read the thread and I don't really see it.

Also, not at all clear how he feels he can judge Nerwen or Nessa's role by discovery of Kitanna's.

[Coppermirror]

I don't have a lot to go on here, but...

++Nessa

My reasons: I don't believe that a vote for Pitchwife is a useful vote at the moment, as I think he won't show up and will get mod-fired anyway. I thought of voting for him earlier, but working through it in my previous post persuaded me that it wasn't a good idea. I may be wrong, but that's the basis for my vote.

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

[Galadriel55]

OK, a list to help me find someone for the vote. I have a bad feeling doing this, since I basically suspect no one and am paranoid about more than half...

Coppermirror does some maths and makes some good observations. If some signs of newbishness don't count as a reason, then I have no reason to vote her - even if I would ever vote a new player on D1.

Inzil strikes me as more innocent than not. His vote might be less popular now than it would have been had sally not voted, but it's not his fault that this happened since his suspicion was in first. So a lose-lose situation which is not a reason for me to point fingers at him.

sally, as I said before, raises eyebrows with her vote, but on the other hand... did she really have a choice? That early on nothing happens, and only 2 or so players were actually active - ie more than a couple empty posts. Again, a lose-lose situation for her. I think I will refrain voting her toDay, and see what happens toMorrow. Today she's forgiven, but if she repeats toMorrow, not that will be an eyebrow raiser for real.

Kit gives me the Kit feel I always get from her, even when we're not playing WW. Says nothing. Dunno.

Nerwen makes me wary. Actually, she might have my vote. It's not that her points aren't true (gosh, when are they not? She's Nerwen!) or that they have a specific wolfy ring to them, but there's this feel. Just... this vibe.

Eomer makes a good observation about Nerwen, but not without a stretch. And I think the Zil and sally part of it is aso a bit stretchy. But it has some good ground to it too. Anyways, I don't have a reason to vote him now.

Nessa is under the radar. No vote for her either way since she's back from a very long break.

Shasta is also under the radar. Now that's bad. A Shasta has to stay above the reindeer at all times.

Pitch - I'm loathe to vote someone who's not there.



So I suppose I'm voting Nerwen?... I hope people talk some more in the last 15 minutes so that at least there are proper posts everyone.


Edit: xed since Zil's vote

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If he had picked on innocent Kitanna, though, Inzil has vowed to go after Sally. So it seems unlikely that, if he's wolvish, that Sally is too.

Ah, good old deadline doubt and confusion!

[Nessa Telrunya]

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

Which speculation was this?

[Coppermirror]

Which speculation was this?

This bit:

But I'm not sure I like the way sally ends up latching onto Inzil's random unease with Kit, admittedly upon much the same reasoning. :confused:

But how do I feel about you latching onto my latching onto you latching onto sally? :p

Although in that, others are saying more or less the same things...Anyway, that's not why I voted for you. I'm afraid my suspicion isn't very strong at all, but I had to pick someone.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Drat and bebother this village. I don't like either of the two votes for Nessa NOR do I like Nessa's vote for Pitch.

[Galadriel55]

Really don't like Nessa's vote. True, she's back from a break, but even so this is a kind of vote it is so easy to hide behind! "You all look innocent s I'll go for someone who's not there without any reasoning!"

We judge people by their votes. How are we supposed to judge a person whose vote is not only a throwaway, but also for a person who in no way warrated it because he's not even there?!

I think Nessa might even have risen to Nerwen's height on my list.

Edit: xed since my last.

[Kitanna]

++Inziladun

I don't trust anything he's said. I'm especially annoyed that he claimed to "bait" Coppermirror, but accused me. This sort of behavior (and you can replace my name with any other villager here) seems too much like a wolf trap.

[Galadriel55]

Stick with Nerwen? Throwaway. Since I'm :eek:-ed with Nessa's vote, it might make more sense for me to vote her. That way I'm going to accomplish something with my vote at least, at risk of being accused of "latching on to latchers-on".


++Nessa


Edit: xed with Kit

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Arg. Is it deadline yet? I think so, um, let me vote.

++SALLY

[Meneltarmacil]

There was a knock on Nessa Telrunya's door. She opened it to see all the townsfolk standing there wielding torches and pitchforks.

"Wh- What's all this about? I haven't done anything, have I? And shouldn't you be looking for Pitchwife?"

"Don't try to protest," said G55. "We know what you are. We all do."

"Wait!" shouted Sally. "What about Kitanna? This could all be her doing!"

"How do we know you're not trying to trick us?" responded Eomer. "Wait, where's Nessa?"

Nessa had attempted to escape during the argument, but was caught by Inzil and Shasta, who forcibly led her to the gallows.

"You and your superstitions! I only use herbal medicine to help people! I'm not a witch!" pleaded Nessa.

"We're not hanging you for witchcraft," said G55.

"Oh? So am I...?" Nessa. looked confused.

Inzil clarified. "We're hanging you for being a werewolf."

The expression on Nessa's face suddenly changed to a wicked grin. "Well if that's your accusation, than I'm guilty as charged." With that she started to grow in stature and sprouted dark hair all over her body. With great strength, she threw off the villagers restraining her before dropping to all fours and growing nasty yellow fangs. An enormous grey wolf now stood where the midwife had been.

The villagers looked on in horror as the beast lunged toward them. With the strength of pure terror, they barely managed to beat back the wolf with their pitchforks while their torches seared its fur and flesh. With a great howl, the wolf finally collapsed dead.

Saruman, watching the scene from the Palantir, swore under his breath.
---------------------------------------

The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Inziladun: Baker
Kitanna: Cranky hermit
Nerwen: Horse trader of doubtful integrity
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1

It is now Night 2. Wolves may PM, everone else must be silent. I need names from Radagast and the wolves.

[Meneltarmacil]

There came a knock on Nerwen's door.

"We're closed for the night. You'll have to come again."

The knock came again, this time with a lot of growling and snarling.

Another dissatisfied customer, thought the horse trader. Haven't they ever heard of "Let the buyer beware?" "Listen, I told you up front there were no refunds, and the sign outside should have made things clear," she said, walking over to the door and opening it. "Now if you don't leav-AAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH!"

The villagers found what was left of Nerwen's corpse impaled upon her "No Refunds For Defective Merchandise" sign the next morning.

---------------------------------------
The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Inziladun: Baker
Kitanna: Cranky hermit
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2

Day 2 has begun. Wolves, stop PMing. Villagers, start your discussions.

[Coppermirror]

Whoa, so they took Nerwen. I'm really surprised. They must have thought she was the Seer. I thought she was a possible Seer too, but evidently not. I was sure that they would go for me or for Galadriel55, unless they thought they could get the Seer.

I wrote up a post earlier. I'll just copy-paste it here with some alterations based on Nerwen's death, and then leave to watch some more of the Olympics. Er, I mean the village hop-scotch championships.

Post I wrote up overnight:

We got a Fenris! Take that, Saruman. (And I am very happy that my first WW vote ever was for a wolf.) My minimum goal for the game has been met: for us to nab a wolf in the first two days and thus not lose in such a short space of time. I don't even mind much if I get eaten, from this point on; I'm already satisfied with this game. Of course, I'll still be working to help us get rid of the other two wolves, but I'm going to relax and enjoy it more. We've now got a fighting chance of victory.

I'm glad that Pitchwife didn't show up yesterDAY, because it meant that Nessa decided to vote for him. I was planning to vote for Nessa anyway, but out of a last minute "I have to vote for somebody and don't want to get on the Kitanna bandwagon or waste my vote!" worry rather than any actual suspicion. But her voting for Pitchwife seemed suspicious and gave me a real reason to vote for her, and also made Galadriel55 suspicious enough to vote. It's great that she really was a wolf.

I'm going to assume from now on that Galadriel55 is innocent. It's possible that she's a wolf playing a very dangerous wolf-on-wolf game having realised that Nessa was looking suspicious and hoping there would be more Kitanna votes, but I don't think that would be a sensible course of action for her. Too risky. So in the absence of further information, Galadriel55 is the closest thing to an innocent in my eyes.

We've got a great amount of information to work on from the first DAY. Quite a few people now look suspicious to me.

Chart of suspicion

Wolf: Nessa (deceased)
Very suspicious: Inziladum
Suspicious: Eomer, Sally
Unknown: Shasta, Pitchwife, Kitanna
Almost certainly innocent: Galadriel55
Innocent: Coppermirror, Nerwen (deceased)

I'll be back later with reasons for the above, though after that I may change my mind and revise my list. And at some point I'll do an analysis of possible wolf packs.

Eomer, you said that you didn't like either of the two votes for Nessa. Why's that? Also, why did you vote for Sally?

[Inziladun]

On the face of it, I don't see anything thus far to have recommended Nerwen to the wolves. She didn't even vote.

To clarify my own vote, I decided that it was more unlikely Sally as a wolf would have latched onto Kit the way she did, than it was that Kit herself was evil. I wasn't all that enthused about voting Kit, I just didn't see any better options.

It's a worthless thing to say, I know, but if I'd seen Nessa's vote for Pitch of all people, that would have changed things for me.

[Pitchwife]

"Werewolves? You call that Werewolves? Pathetic puppies, I say! When I was a lad we were raided by wargs so fierce they'd eat every living thing in the Westfold before you could say Ride, Eorlingas!. Good King Thengel and his men gave 'em short shrift though. Ah, those were the Days!" [/belated D1 IC rant]

Seriously, sorry for doing a Kath yesterDay and thanks to Shasta, Cop and Gal for foiling Nessa Fenrinya's attempt on my unprotected life. Speaking of which, I wonder how much hope she had it would succeed - I mean, there had been some talk of submarine-hunting earlier, but lynching somebody who's in danger of modfire anyway would be considered a wasted lynch in most villages, especially one so small.

If, however, she felt she could afford to make a throwaway vote, there must either have been some chance of lynching an innocent at the time she voted - which would speak for Kit and against sally and/or Zil - , or her packmates hadn't voted yet and she was leaving things in their hands - which would point to those who voted after but not for her, i.e. Kit and Eomer (disregarding for now the possibility of wolf-on-wolf votes).

Now if the latter is true and Kit is one of the wolves, that would mean there were two wolves in danger of being lynched yesterDay and no innocent bandwagon to fall back on; which would explain the lack of any concerted attempt to save Nessa. But in this case I'd have expected to find Zil dead toDay instead of Nerwen.

* * *
Eomer, you said that you didn't like either of the two votes for Nessa. Why's that? Also, why did you vote for Sally?
Good questions both, I'd like to hear that too. But Cop, why did you think Nerwen a possible seer?

[Inziladun]

At the risk of defending her and creating a sort of 'faction', there's something weird about Inzil's insistence on Kitanna. Trying to bait Coppermirror but ending up with Kit? I've just re-read the thread and I don't really see it.

I thought it was clear enough. What I said about Coppermirror I saw as both a noteworthy mention, as well as an opportunity to see if anyone else suspiciously latched onto it.
My words about Kit had no such secondary thought behind them.

Also, not at all clear how he feels he can judge Nerwen or Nessa's role by discovery of Kitanna's.

I was in a hurry at the time, but I was thinking if Kit turned out to be a wolf, it might be that Nerwen, by casting suspicion on Sally for voting Kit, and Nessa for echoing it, might be packmates of Kit. Obviously, that wasn't the case with Nerwen.

x/d with Pitch

[Inziladun]

Nessa's vote looks inexplicable.
I suppose it's possible she put in a vote for a packmate-Pitch, thinking no one else would even consider following her, but that doesn't seem all that likely.

[satansaloser2005]

This is a horrible thing to say, but I think Nessa's vote actually makes me look bad and Pitch look better. After all, she said things against me and then went after someone random in the end, disregarding her earlier "suspicion" of me.

Of course it's also possible she just hoped to lynch a possibly gifted Pitch in his absence, which would also not surprise me; I didn't go after Eomer for fear of doing exactly that, so I could see a wolf capitalizing on the lack of Pitch and disregarding anything else in hopes of having one less gifted come the Morrow.

Also, Nerwen? Really? Ugh. I needed a horse on the cheap....

[Pitchwife]

I thought it was clear enough. What I said about Coppermirror I saw as both a noteworthy mention, as well as an opportunity to see if anyone else suspiciously latched onto it.
My words about Kit had no such secondary thought behind them.
That is indeed how I read your post myself, and in my ears Eomer's distorted paraphrase reads as if he hadn't read it at all but was picking the point second-hand from someone else.

Nessa's vote looks inexplicable.
I suppose it's possible she put in a vote for a packmate-Pitch, thinking no one else would even consider following her, but that doesn't seem all that likely.
Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.

[Pitchwife]

This is a horrible thing to say, but I think Nessa's vote actually makes me look bad and Pitch look better.
Indeed, this state of things is intolerable. What can I do that would give you a reason to speak dirty to... er, of me, I mean?
Also, did you have to say such a painfully honest-sounding thing? Meh.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sally voted for Kitanna
Inzil voted for Kitanna
Shasta voted for Nessa
Nessa voted for Pitch
Coppermirror voted for Nessa
Kitanna voted for Inzil
G55 voted for Nessa
Eomer voted for Sally

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

As I was asked about it, I will explain why I didn't like the first two votes for Nessa.

Nessa's post #42 is where it all fell apart for her, which I find.... rather fortuitous. She comments that she suspected Sally's actions in jumping onto Inziladun's train of thought, and voting for Kitanna.

To my mind, there is nothing suspicious here. Wasn't everyone a bit suspicious of what Sally did? But then Nerwen (proven innocent now) suspects Nessa from this, and Shasta jumps in with a vote. Coppermirror then votes for Nessa too, albeit with a better reason (Nessa's vote for Pitch). Coppermirror then clarified that the earlier 'suspicion' of Nessa was not a deciding factor, and so I look more favourably on her now.

G55's vote makes her look very innocent, that's true. I am less inclined to drop my guard around Shasta, however.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Inziladun,

Looking back.... I'm not really sure how I got confused! :D

So, to clarify: you did not really suspect Coppermirror, but were trying to hook a wolf into that particular net. Nothing came of it.

Your suspicion of Kitanna was genuine, and it inadvertently snared someone (Sally: whether good or evil we don't know, of course).

Apologies for being slow!

However, this does nothing to stop me from thinking your suspicion of Kitanna is weird.

[Coppermirror]

Just working through my thoughts on Nessa's vote and the wolves' choice to go for Nerwen here. I'll look at the content of the rest of the discussion on this properly once I'm done. (And I still need to write up some analysis...)

Why did Nessa vote for Pitchwife?
Nessa knows whether Pitchwife is innocent or not. She placed her vote at 12:43 PM GMT. Menel in the admin thread said at 12:54 PM GMT that he wouldn't mod-fire Pitchwife on the first day, so Nessa did not know at that time that there would be no mod-firing.

Why would she vote for a Pitchwolf?
At the time she probably thought he would be mod-fired. Then it could be as Pitchwife suggested, with her making a throwaway vote for a packmate in an attempt to look innocent.

Why would she vote for an innocent Pitchwife?
If Kitanna is innocent, Nessa was aware of this and might consider Pitchwife a safe vote. Most people didn't look very suspicious yesterDAY.

If Kitanna is a wolf, Nessa might have thought Pitchwife was a safe vote too, distancing herself from the lynching. She might also have wanted to take attention away from Kitanna. In any case, I think it's unlikely that she was a sacrificial wolf, because I don't think wolves benefit much from a bold strategy here.

Why was Nerwen killed?
She didn't vote. Ordinarily if I heard that in a tale I would see that as a sign that wolves were trying not to be traced, but I'm not sure about it now.

They must have had something to gain from it. If Galadriel and I are both innocent, and perhaps neither of us is Radagast, and Radagast has by now had two dreams...that's a maximum of two probably-innocents and three known innocents. 5 innocents in an 8 person village, along with 2 wolves and 1 other villager. To me it would make sense for the wolves to have got rid of me or Galadriel last NIGHT, to cut down the number of probably-innocents, unless they had a really good idea who Radagast might be. Perhaps they were being reckless and hoping for maximum gain? Their current odds may not be great.

Good questions both, I'd like to hear that too. But Cop, why did you think Nerwen a possible seer?

She mentioned Nessa a few times, but was fairly mild and reasonable about it. She also mentioned a few other people in a light sort of way, emphasising that she wasn't making accusations. It could have been a subtle way for Radagast to hide an actual suspicion on the first DAY.

Okay. Pretty "thin", indeed, but I suppose it's enough to justify Zil's "ill-defined feeling of unease" comment, given this is Day One and there hasn't been that much else to analyse yet. Sally's vote, though, looks pretty opportunistic and her explanation sounds like hedging.

–Also– as a general thing, I find myself looking askance at people (Zil, Nessa, Sally), who paint lack of gifteds or excess of wolves as a positive thing, mostly because there's then statistically less chance of hitting the former than the latter. While true, this quite misses the point. I mean, I suppose one should always look for the silver lining and all that– but it's also often in the lupine interest to play down the village's danger. (None of this is an accusation, mind you– still much too early for that.)

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

[Coppermirror]

About Inzil's plan to hook wolves yesterDAY...I do think that what he said was consistent, at least in terms of having me as the target. On the first page he mentioned me in a pointed way about three times, and sounded deliberately unconvinced another time when I explained something to him. He mentioned mild suspicion of Kitanna twice. And really, I thought that my first few posts in the thread looked a little suspicious myself.

Apparently nobody likes to lynch first-time players on the first DAY, so it would have been fairly safe to be suspicious of me and see who reacted. That sort of move wouldn't have been a bad idea to try to stir up discussion on a DAY when it was important for the village not to keep solely to banter.

When I first read the posts on the first DAY, I also felt mildly suspicious of Kitanna. But when I looked at her posts again later in the DAY, I decided it was my imagination. So I think I can see why Inzil might have had a vague feeling of suspicion.

Which is not to say that Inzil isn't still suspicious.

Anyway, in light of things people have said, I think I may need to reconsider my opinions about people's suspiciousness. But that'll be much later. I'll probably be gone for at least the next 9 or 10 hours.

[Kitanna]

++Zil

I almost didn't make it yesterday. I assumed I'd be lynched because no one else was in the lead. I can't take that chance when I know there's a wolf.

This is a small village and I'd rather sacrifice myself then let Zil live another Night to terrorize and kill.

[Coppermirror]

++Zil

I almost didn't make it yesterday. I assumed I'd be lynched because no one else was in the lead. I can't take that chance when I know there's a wolf.

This is a small village and I'd rather sacrifice myself then let Zil live another Night to terrorize and kill.

You "know" he's a wolf...Are you saying that you're the Seer?

If not, could you expand a bit on your reasons for why you think Inzil is a wolf? I know you gave some reasons yesterDAY, but a little more would be helpful.

[Pitchwife]

If Kitanna is a wolf, Nessa might have thought Pitchwife was a safe vote too, distancing herself from the lynching.
Um, why would she want to distance herself from the lynching of a wolf? Doesn't make sense to me (unlike the rest of your reasoning here).

She didn't vote. Ordinarily if I heard that in a tale I would see that as a sign that wolves were trying not to be traced, but I'm not sure about it now.

They must have had something to gain from it. If Galadriel and I are both innocent, and perhaps neither of us is Radagast, and Radagast has by now had two dreams...that's a maximum of two probably-innocents and three known innocents. 5 innocents in an 8 person village, along with 2 wolves and 1 other villager. To me it would make sense for the wolves to have got rid of me or Galadriel last NIGHT, to cut down the number of probably-innocents, unless they had a really good idea who Radagast might be. Perhaps they were being reckless and hoping for maximum gain? Their current odds may not be great.

She mentioned Nessa a few times, but was fairly mild and reasonable about it. She also mentioned a few other people in a light sort of way, emphasising that she wasn't making accusations. It could have been a subtle way for Radagast to hide an actual suspicion on the first DAY.
The thing is, everything she said against Nessa or other people was based on sound reasoning, and nothing looks to me like it was arrived at by Nightly inspiration. Trailless kill seems much more likely to me.

(x-ed with Kit and Cop. :eek:)

[Pitchwife]

You "know" he's a wolf...Are you saying that you're the Seer?

If not, could you expand a bit on your reasons for why you think Inzil is a wolf? I know you gave some reasons yesterDAY, but a little more would be helpful.
She's not saying she thinks, she says she knows.

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?

[Pitchwife]

Also, since you'll be dead toMorrow, I think it would be a good idea to tell us your other dream and give us a known innocent (assuming you didn't dream another wolf, in which case I'd think you'd have said so).

[Coppermirror]

Um, why would she want to distance herself from the lynching of a wolf? Doesn't make sense to me (unlike the rest of your reasoning here).

The thing is, everything she said against Nessa or other people was based on sound reasoning, and nothing looks to me like it was arrived at by Nightly inspiration. Trailless kill seems much more likely to me.

(x-ed with Kit and Cop. :eek:)

It's past 5AM and my brain has turned into swiss cheese, so I'm not entirely sure why I said that. I was probably thinking along the lines of situations where wolves have gone for a wolf-on-wolf vote after a wolf lynching was already a sure thing. However, things hadn't reached that point when Nessa laid her vote.

I just don't understand why they would go for a trailless night kill in circumstances like the ones at hand. But I also don't understand why they would have gone for Nerwen thinking she was the seer on such thin grounds, because in these circumstances they would have needed to be sure in order for it to be worth the risk. But it must have been one of those options regardless.

She's not saying she thinks, she says she knows.

Looks very much like it. I asked for clarification because I wanted to be totally sure I wasn't misunderstanding her.

Things have got interesting with Kitanna probably being Radagast, but I've really got to go now...

[Kitanna]

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?
Night 2. I dreamt an innocent on Night 1.

I didn't plan to reveal, but since Nessa died a wolf, I wanted the village to get two in a row. I have a terrible record as seer and sacrificing myself seems like a good choice since I have a known wolf.

[Inziladun]

I was afraid of this.

I am the Seer.

My Night 1 dream was Kitanna. Hence, my "vague" suspicion. I was hoping to get her lynched.

Unfortunately, my dream last Night was Nerwen.

Why didn't they kill me last Night? I can't say. Maybe it's just an exceptionally bold pack confident of their one remaining member.

Oh well.

[Pitchwife]

Can't say I'm surprised. So who of you two is the fake?

[Kitanna]

If you chose Zil, you let a wolf walk free. You'll lynch me, I'll die the real seer and he'll live an extra day while a different innocent takes my place tonight. There's nothing I can say to convince you of my innocence over his fake reveal. I still have a dream and that person is alive unlike Zil's conveniently dead dream of Nerwen. I'm going to hold on to that information because I won't give it to a village that doesn't trust me.

You can all think for yourselves and decide who to believe. But remember you'll waste the day and that's exactly what Zil wants.

[Coppermirror]

(Augh, I'm glued to this thread. Such drama.)

Inzil looked quite suspicious after yesterDay, in my opinion, which is why I put him at the top of my suspicion list. It would be reasonable for a Seer-Kitanna to dream of him (especially since he voted for her), and sensible for her to come out today and tell us we've got an Inzil-wolf. It would also make sense for Inzil to come out as a fake seer and to claim that he knew Kitanna was a wolf from the start.

However...it's still possible that things are the other way around. And Kitanna is refusing to give the name of the known innocent for some reason. It's only natural that the village would doubt which is real and which is fake. Kitanna, why won't you give the innocent's name to the village unless we trust you? I don't understand that at the moment.

Inzil, you're saying that you were trying from the start to get Kitanna lynched. If that's so, wasn't your talk about vague suspicion a suicidal move? Why did you talk about vague suspicion of her, even though you say you're surprised that they didn't kill you during the night?

[satansaloser2005]

Why do you people pull these pranks while I'm busy? Ugh. So rude.


I'm the seer. I dreamt everyone. You're all guilty. Let's move on.

(Not really. I'll read through the thread again when I get home and see who I believe. It's too early in the game for this silliness....)

[Pitchwife]

Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.

[Pitchwife]

Why didn't they kill me last Night? I can't say. Maybe it's just an exceptionally bold pack confident of their one remaining member.
Actually, it would make sense. If you're Radagast and they'd killed you, we'd most likely have lynched Kit toDay anyway, whereas this way, they gain a chance of getting you lynched and using toNight's kill on someone else. If the third wolf hadn't come under any suspicion worth mentioning yet, it would be a viable strategy.

[Inziladun]

All I can say is that I tried to be vague enough in my suspicion of Kit that they wouldn't home in on me, and at the same time leave something to go on in case they did.

Also, I thought Nerwen might have been trying to raise Sally as an alternative lynch to Kit after Sally's vote for her. That's why I picked Nerwen last Night.

[Inziladun]

Without further ado:

++Kitanna

[Pitchwife]

All I can say is that I tried to be vague enough in my suspicion of Kit that they wouldn't home in on me, and at the same time leave something to go on in case they did.
Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.

[Inziladun]

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.

Fair enough. That's pretty much all I can say, but if anyone has a question, feel free.

[Kitanna]

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.
I'll be honest, I've given you a wolf already. And if that still gets me lynched I don't feel inclined to help this village further. I will reveal my dream if this village trusts me enough to lynch Zil. When I die, I'll die innocent. Zil and his packmate can't say the same.

You may all waste the day trying to decide who you want to believe. I have nothing left to say on the topic. Once I get back to my house I will concentrate on finding the third wolf.

[Pitchwife]

I will reveal my dream if this village trusts me enough to lynch Zil.
And if we lynch Zil and find him genuine, the point will be moot anyway, is that it?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Whichever one it is, there will be connexions to analyse from Day One: both Kitanna and Inzil were in the thick of things. And considering that first days are often uneventful and lacking in content, I'm glad our Seer battle is between these two!

[Kitanna]

Coppermirror
1: Mostly IC comments, with a quick paragraph about our odds as a village.
2: A response to Zil's comment about her preemptive defense. (that she had been sleeping through the night)
3: Just stating she'll be back later.
4: Summarizes what has happened thus far, but doesn't really say anything about what she thinks. Again explains herself to Zil about distancing herself from wolves.
5: Nothing much.
6: I'm not at all sure yet who I'll be voting for. I had intended to vote for either some of the quieter villagers or those who hadn't shown up yet, to avoid only finding active villagers suspicious, but as time's gone on, some quiet people have become more active. So I'll wait and see.
She pretty much states that she'll vote for a quiet one or the one who hasn't shown up. Which is what Nessa ended up doing.
7: She lists our odds again. Stating I suppose it doesn't matter too much whether or not we lose an innocent Pitchwife After reading her scenarios this comment doesn't look too good. The village is so small, losing an innocent through a lynch should always matter.
8: Votes Nessa because she doesn't like that Nessa voted for Pitch, even though she had plans to do so herself. She does state that after working through worst-case scenarios she had changed her mind. My reasons: I don't believe that a vote for Pitchwife is a useful vote at the moment, as I think he won't show up and will get mod-fired anyway. I thought of voting for him earlier, but working through it in my previous post persuaded me that it wasn't a good idea. I may be wrong, but that's the basis for my vote.
9: I'm afraid my suspicion isn't very strong at all, but I had to pick someone. Distance and defense of vote for Nessa.
Day 2:
10: She thinks the wolves thought Nerwen was the seer. I have no clue how she drew this conclusion. I was sure that they would go for me or for Galadriel55, unless they thought they could get the Seer.
Why you? Why G55? Nerwen looked like a normal Night 2 pick. She didn't vote or leave much behind.
I'm glad that Pitchwife didn't show up yesterDAY, because it meant that Nessa decided to vote for him. I was planning to vote for Nessa anyway, but out of a last minute "I have to vote for somebody and don't want to get on the Kitanna bandwagon or waste my vote!" worry rather than any actual suspicion. But her voting for Pitchwife seemed suspicious and gave me a real reason to vote for her, and also made Galadriel55 suspicious enough to vote. It's great that she really was a wolf. What? You never once expressed any desire to lynch Nessa until your vote post. This looks like a "look, I helped catch a wolf, I wanted to vote for her all along, afterall."
Very suspicious: Inziladum
Suspicious: Eomer, Sally
Unknown: Shasta, Pitchwife, Kitanna
Almost certainly innocent: Galadriel55
Innocent: Coppermirror, Nerwen (deceased)
I'm glad she finally commits to some form of suspicion that straddling the middle ground. And her reasoning for finding G55 innocentish is interesting.
11: She answers my questions about why she thought Nerwen was the seer in this post. She also puts forth a few interesting theories on Nessa and her vote for Pitch.
12: Talks about Zil's early posts in which he does sort of pick her out of the crowd. She had been talking the most at the time. Understands his vague feelings of guilt on my part, but still finds him suspicious.
13: Thinks she misread my reveal and asks for an expansion.
14: Explains her reasons for why Nessa would distance herself from a wolf lynch.
15: Sees how Zil is the wolf and I'm the seer, but also sees how I'm the wolf and Zil's the seer.

Copper speaks a lot and on Day 1 didn't say a whole lot of anything. Even though she has listed some suspicions today she is still not committing to anything. That makes me wary, but I'm not sold on her as guilty. I'm not convinced she's innocent either. I'd like to see what else she has to say.

Shasta
1: IC banter
2: Responds to Zil's declaration of voting for him just for being Shasta. Mostly more IC banter though.
3: That's a good point, but I do have to dock you a few points for considering voting someone who hasn't shown up. Is Eomer even aware the game's started?
I'm not sure who he's referring to. Sally maybe?
4: Votes Nessa, doesn't really give a reason.
He hasn't spoken today and there's not much to go on. I don't like he didn't even try to give a reason for voting Nessa.

Originally Posted by Nerwen
But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?
Funnily enough, I was going to say relatively the same thing... only replacing your name with Eomer's. Hmm. I do need to vote (I'm about to hit the hay), so I think I'm going to go ahead and vote for -
Maybe I misread this, but after his response to Nerwen I'd have thought he'd throw a vote in her direction. Still he looks slightly more innocent because (and someone let me know if I screw up the order) but he was the first to vote Nessa. It's weird he didn't give a reason. Did he maybe think the voting would turn against me to her at any time and he was working to distance himself? Or was he just voting for her cause of his own time constraints and her vote for Pitch was suspicious enough to vote for.

[satansaloser2005]

Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.



Can I just "This" that entire post? Because I have.


Kit would have been nicely on the lynching block again toDay, so I could see her trying a reveal, but at the same time I could see a poor and frustrated seer!Kit knowing she needs to impart her wisdom while she still can.

How convenient, then, that Dun has dreamt Kit, and Kit Dun. Might we entertain the possibility that they are both wolves, and that this is a rather elaborate scheme? Of course not, because the real seer would have spoken up by now. (Unless of course it's me and that "reveal" up there was, at least in its former parts, genuine. But how likely is that, right?)


At this moment I'm more inclined to trust Dun, but I know nothing for certain, at least as far as wolves are concerned. I'm off to tidy my lair, but I will return later with less confusing (but still frustratingly honest, apparently :p) thoughts.

[Kitanna]

Sally
1: Normal Sally day 1, post 1.
2: Obviously Nessa did it. She was found at the scene, after all.
Maybe Sally's the real seer and Zil and I are just playing an elaborate prank. Comments that maybe we'll lynch a wolf by sheer dumb luck.
3: Responds to my comment about how dumb luck won't work because Boro isn't in this game and she's not a wolf.
4: Looks at the odds and decides the dumb luck comment maybe wasn't entirely false. Lists who she won't be voting for based on usual Sally nonsense.
5: Banter
6: IC
7: Votes for me. I don't appreciated my name being used near the word "creep", thank you very much. Sounds like she drew a name out of a hat to vote.
Day 2:
8: Makes an interesting point that Nessa's vote makes her look bad and Pitch look good. Not so sure I agree with it.
9: Angry at seer shenanigans. She'll comment later.
It grieves me to say so, 'cause Sally is always high on my list, but for once she doesn't look bad. She hasn't really sad anything that suggests anything other than a frustrated innocent crunched for time.

G55
1: Mostly "I'm alive, but will be back"
2: Responds to a few of Coppermirror's questions observations (Day 1 is mostly banter, especially early and explains the sub-hunter) Doesn't like Sally's vote, but doesn't blame her.
3: Summarizes how she feels about everyone. Continues her dislike of Sally's vote, but understands why she voted as she did. Her two top suspects are Nerwen (for having a feeling about her) and Shasta, because she's worried of him flying under the radar. Seems like Nerwen will get her vote.
4: Dislikes Nessa's vote, feels it is too easy to hide behind. We judge people by their votes. How are we supposed to judge a person whose vote is not only a throwaway, but also for a person who in no way warrated it because he's not even there?! A very good point.
5: Votes Nessa.
Not sure what to make of G55. She hasn't spoke up yet today and of her top suspects (Nessa, Nerwen, and Shasta) two are dead and one isn't around yet either. I can see G55-wolf steering votes toward a packmate, but I don't know if I can see it on Day 1. I do find it interesting so many of her suspects have wound up dead.

Eomer
1: Banter
2: Apparently Coppermirror drowns cats. I'm glad I caught this post. I needed a laugh.
3: Makes an interesting scenario out of Zil's "vague feelings", Sally's vote, and Nerwen's attack of Sally's vote.
4: Believes killing Sally is always an option.
5: Recounts the votes so far.
6: Questions Zil's baiting Coppermirror tactic and isn't sure how Zil can figure Nessa or Nerwen's role by my death.
7: If Zil is a wolf, Sally is probably not.
8: Against the Nessa bandwagon, but not for her vote either.
9: Votes Sally.
Day 2:
10: Vote tally.
11: I'll have to reread Zil's post that led to this, but he decides Zil's suspicion of me is genuine. Still thinks it's weird.
12: Response to seer reveals.
At first I wasn't sure what to think of Eomer, but I believe he may well be wolf #3. He distanced himself from the Nessa bandwagon well, but also kept packmate Zil in his sights as a possibility at all times. This way when Zil goes down Eomer can hide behind his earlier suspicions. Whatever happens today I think a closer watch should be kept on him.

Pitch
1: Making up for missed Day 1 banter. Puts down some scenarios for Nessa's vote and vote placement. Asks Copper why she thought Nerwen was a possibly seer.
2: Responds to some of Zil's comments.
3: Response to Sally's post 8.
4: Further response to Copper's various scenarios.
5: Tells Copper I did just do a seer reveal.
6: Asks me to tell my dream.
7: Is unsurprised that someone else seer revealed.
8: Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
I am being quite angry with this village and am going to keep my dream to myself. It's thanks to Zil who refuses to go down, but just wants to confuse things. I'm frustrated and angry. I also have nothing to lose but my own life at this point.
9: Believes Zil is the most seerish villager, but isn't ready to vote for me on the off chance I'm telling the truth.
10:
Originally Posted by Kitanna
I will reveal my dream if this village trusts me enough to lynch Zil.
And if we lynch Zil and find him genuine, the point will be moot anyway, is that it?
*shrug* Neither one of us will live past Day 3 anyway.

Pitch is probably innocent.

[Inziladun]

Kudos to Kitwolf for the prodigious effort!

I personally think Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent.
The former for general good sense, and the latter for the vote on Nessa, which seems unnecessary for a packmate of hers.

Sally doesn't strike me as a likely wolf. Her vote on Kit I put in the same boat as G55's on Nessa: not needed and too dangerous.

Shasta? Well, once again why vote for Nessawolf? Granted, as I said, Nessa's vote for Pitch looked pretty darned fishy, but still, it seems he could have found some other option to buy his mate another Day. I mistrust him in general, though, so it's rather difficult to be objective.

Pitch himself is enigmatic. I do like his skepticism in trying to sort between Kit and me, though it's still so strange to me that Nessa went for him over everyone else. Was it just a throwaway from a wolf wanting to keep above the fray? Or a wolf feeling safe in voting for a mate who hadn't made an appearance all Day and was thus a very unlikely lynch?

And that leaves Eomer. It seemed to me that he was deliberately not understanding what I'd said about my intentions with Coppermirror and Kit, and his vote for Sally could be his picking up on what Nerwen had said, trying to divert things away from Nessa. Rather trips the radar.

[Pitchwife]

I have to vote now, as it's bedtime for me and I most likely won't be able to come online again before DL (which is near the end of my workday).

I hate this whole situation, and if Kit's a wolf, she does the angry frustrated innocent part really well. Also I concur with some of her analyses, most notably those of Cop (whom I think more probably innocent, however) and Eomer (funny, since I considered him a likely packmate for a Kitwolf earlier).

How likely is it, though, that a Zilwolf just happened to random-suspect our seer, of all people, in a seerish-looking way? Also, how much danger of getting lynched toDay was Kit really in prior to her reveal? (Yes, I mentioned her as a possible packmate of Nessa's in my first post, and the thought that Zil was the seer and had dreamed her had crossed my mind, but his continuing existence among the living cast a lot of doubt on that.) What I'm saying is wolvish guilt may have led her to underestimate her chances.

I really think it makes more sense the other way 'round, and Kitwolf is sacrificing herself in order to take down the seer before he can dream her last packmate.

Therefore
++Kitanna

Zil, if you're a wolf, well done. Kit, if you're a wolf, that was a brave attempt; if you're the real seer, may we meet in the flesh some day so you can slap me to your heart's content.

[satansaloser2005]

Pitch and I really need to stop agreeing. And yes, I'm using the word creepy again, 'cause it's getting to those levels. But, you know, maybe we're just right.

++Kit

For the record, Eomer strikes me as the first choice for the other wolf, but I don't think he'd be so bold as to vote me after I voted Kit. I don't know. I'm not thinking too much into all this until we see the results of toDay's lynch. If I'm wrong, I will be ever so cross (and also probably dead)....

Ugh. I wish I knew more toDay. >.<

[Kitanna]

I already voted but
++Kit

I have a headahce. Just don't kill Sally. She's my other packmate.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh. Right. I should point out that if Kit were the real seer, she'd tell us her dream now so we at least gain something from all this. Then again, I'm pretty sure she's not the real seer, so, you know, never mind. I'm going to have some dinner now.


EDIT: Oh, you dirty little....

[Pitchwife]

Just a note before I leave:

Shasta? Well, once again why vote for Nessawolf? Granted, as I said, Nessa's vote for Pitch looked pretty darned fishy, but still, it seems he could have found some other option to buy his mate another Day.
Shasta voted Nessa before she voted me. He was laconic enough about his reasons, but if I understand him right, he was going exclusively on the latching-on point mentioned by Nerwen.

Good night, and á vala Manwë.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right, I'm here, and reading. Bit of luck on the Nessa vote - I noted someone else had seen what I'd seen about her, and something was telling me "bad!" and I had to vote, so. I apologize for my relative lack of being here. I'll do better. :)

[satansaloser2005]

Right, I'm here, and reading. Bit of luck on the Nessa vote - I noted someone else had seen what I'd seen about her, and something was telling me "bad!" and I had to vote, so. I apologize for my relative lack of being here. I'll do better. :)

Right, babe, you've done your part. Now just follow Sally's lead and all will be fine. :Merisu:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Reading Pitch's #69, I'm pretty well following the logic until I get here -

Now if the latter is true and Kit is one of the wolves, that would mean there were two wolves in danger of being lynched yesterDay and no innocent bandwagon to fall back on; which would explain the lack of any concerted attempt to save Nessa. But in this case I'd have expected to find Zil dead toDay instead of Nerwen.

Why's that, Pitch?

This is a horrible thing to say, but I think Nessa's vote actually makes me look bad and Pitch look better. After all, she said things against me and then went after someone random in the end, disregarding her earlier "suspicion" of me.

Of course it's also possible she just hoped to lynch a possibly gifted Pitch in his absence, which would also not surprise me; I didn't go after Eomer for fear of doing exactly that, so I could see a wolf capitalizing on the lack of Pitch and disregarding anything else in hopes of having one less gifted come the Morrow.

Nnn. Sally, dear song partner of mine, this post. I don't like it, my dear. Firstly, I've seen you play the self-deprecating wolf before. It was in that play, "The Two Werewolves of Verona", remember?

Secondly, you're basically running with the assumption that Nessa in particular and the wolves as a whole thought Pitch was gifted - in that case, why isn't he dead?

I am less inclined to drop my guard around Shasta, however.
Oh, dear. How ever am I supposed to come murder you in your bed at this rate. :rolleyes:

Cop, I have a question for you -

Why would she vote for a Pitchwolf?
At the time she probably thought he would be mod-fired. Then it could be as Pitchwife suggested, with her making a throwaway vote for a packmate in an attempt to look innocent.

In this suggestion, Pitchwife himself would be the packmate he's suggesting Nessa threw away her vote on. Was this a typo, or something?


....

Aaaaand Kit at #80 makes pretty much everything else moot. :rolleyes:

And there's Inzil's counter-reveal at #87.

Maybe I misread this, but after his response to Nerwen I'd have thought he'd throw a vote in her direction. Still he looks slightly more innocent because (and someone let me know if I screw up the order) but he was the first to vote Nessa. It's weird he didn't give a reason. Did he maybe think the voting would turn against me to her at any time and he was working to distance himself? Or was he just voting for her cause of his own time constraints and her vote for Pitch was suspicious enough to vote for.

That post wasn't against the light of my life, that was me mentioning I was thinking Nessa was jumping on something Eomer said as opposed to Nerwen.

I mistrust him in general, though, so it's rather difficult to be objective.

So hurtful. :(

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right, so, we've got Kitanna versus Inzil for today. I'm going to go back and look at Day 1 - although, interestingly, a Kitwolf would know all the innocents in the village, plus, this is a prime opportunity to mess with the village's mind should she be lynched (she tells us Person A is a dreamt innocent, dies a wolf. Was she trying to protect Person A (her packmate)? Was she trying to get them lynched via WIFOM? etc.)

It's weird to me that a Kitwolf wouldn't just go ahead and say someone was innocent. Whereas a frustrated innocent Kit might just be contrary because she's not being believed.

[satansaloser2005]

Secondly, you're basically running with the assumption that Nessa in particular and the wolves as a whole thought Pitch was gifted - in that case, why isn't he dead?

My harmonious darling, just because Nessa thought that doesn't mean her partners agreed with her. I should think that would be obvious. I never implied that the rest of the pack agreed with her, but it's interesting that you jumped to that conclusion. Are we simply out of tune, or are you playing a darker piece than we agreed upon?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

#15 - Inzil says Kit strikes him as "a bit off, but it's really a thin thing."

#22 - Inzil on Kit again - "some ill-defined feeling of unease"

#23 - Kit wants a reason for Inzil's suspicion.

#24 - Inzil mentions "the feel of the first couple posts."

#48 - Inzil - "It is a bit suspicious the way Sally latched onto what I said about Kit. Funny thing is, I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit."

#49 - Inzil votes Kit.

#52 - Kit - "I'll probably vote for Zil at this point. Because I don't like his "Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing." and "I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit.""

#62 - Kit votes Inzil.

Conclusion - Well, it does look like a standard Seer lead-up on Inzil's part, and Kit does look a bit retaliatory, as though she's realized she's in trouble. But if that's so, and Kitwolf did realize Inzilgast had dreamt her, why not kill Inzil last night?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My harmonious darling, just because Nessa thought that doesn't mean her partners agreed with her. I should think that would be obvious. I never implied that the rest of the pack agreed with her, but it's interesting that you jumped to that conclusion. Are we simply out of tune, or are you playing a darker piece than we agreed upon?

My fault, dear. I saw this -

Of course it's also possible she just hoped to lynch a possibly gifted Pitch in his absence, which would also not surprise me; I didn't go after Eomer for fear of doing exactly that, so I could see [/b]a wolf[/b] capitalizing on the lack of Pitch and disregarding anything else in hopes of having one less gifted come the Morrow.

(bolding mine)

- and took it to mean "a wolf that's not Nessa."

I do still think it a bit odd that you're so sure Nessa thought Pitch was gifted when he hadn't been here, though.

[satansaloser2005]

My fault, dear. I...took it to mean "a wolf that's not Nessa."

I do still think it a bit odd that you're so sure Nessa thought Pitch was gifted when he hadn't been here, though.

Ahhhh. Fair enough. No worries.

I don't take it as canon, but it's an explanation I can think of that made sense. In a village this small, eliminating gifteds is a huge thing, and if Pitch wasn't around to defend himself, it would make it much easier. It also could have been plain opportunism or, for that matter, something random.

[Coppermirror]

Cop, I have a question for you -


In this suggestion, Pitchwife himself would be the packmate he's suggesting Nessa threw away her vote on. Was this a typo, or something?

I thought Pitchwife had said that and then added that it's not true because he's not a wolf. However, on second glance I was mixing up something Pitchwife said with something Inziladun said:

Nessa's vote looks inexplicable.
I suppose it's possible she put in a vote for a packmate-Pitch, thinking no one else would even consider following her, but that doesn't seem all that likely.

Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.

I'm going to go over Kitanna's analysis of me, and then I'll do an analysis of Kitanna vs Inziladun to try to work out who to believe.

[Coppermirror]

She pretty much states that she'll vote for a quiet one or the one who hasn't shown up. Which is what Nessa ended up doing.

For most of Day 1, my biggest worry was that people would not talk and that that would make it difficult to make a decent guess about who to vote for. This isn't a normal sized village but a small one, so we were in a lot of danger and absolutely had to catch a wolf on either Day 1 or 2. A quiet Day 1 would mean a village loss; I was thinking that all the wolves needed to do to win was stay relatively quiet, and wait for louder people to turn on each other. So I was inclined towards a favourable view of anyone who was trying to contribute and encourage discussion, and towards suspicion of anyone quiet or who only posted once or twice.

I think you are mis-stating what I said, if only slightly. I didn't say in that post that I intended to vote for a quiet one or for one who hadn't shown. I said that I had intended to do that, but that because more people were posting, now I would wait and see, and that I wasn't sure who to vote for. But fair enough, I did actually continue with a variation on that strategy until part way through page 2. I tried to match people to my idea of what a sensible wolf would be doing. My bad luck was that by the time I wanted to vote, both of my possible suspects had disqualified themselves from those criteria.

7: She lists our odds again. Stating After reading her scenarios this comment doesn't look too good. The village is so small, losing an innocent through a lynch should always matter.

Here I do think that you're being a bit misleading.

This is what I said, after going through the worst case voting scenarios.

So...for the purpose of avoiding losing the game in two days and not looking further than that, I suppose it doesn't matter too much whether or not we lose an innocent Pitchwife in addition, because if don't find a wolf in those days, we lose anyway. For the longer term, it's more of a problem.

8: Votes Nessa because she doesn't like that Nessa voted for Pitch, even though she had plans to do so herself. She does state that after working through worst-case scenarios she had changed her mind.

I hadn't planned to vote for Pitchwife. I did consider it and think something along the lines of "Oh no, Pitchwife's going to get mod-fired. Would it help us to lynch him beforehand?" and so I worked through the worst case scenarios to find the answer to that. (Which was no.)


10: She thinks the wolves thought Nerwen was the seer. I have no clue how she drew this conclusion.
Why you? Why G55? Nerwen looked like a normal Night 2 pick. She didn't vote or leave much behind.

I thought that everyone was likely to assume that G55 and I were probably innocent, based on our votes for Nessa. We were second and third, and this is a very small game with high stakes, with the odds in the wolves' favour. If either of us were wolves, it would be quite unnecessary and risky to place those votes for Nessa. As such, I thought that the wolves would have to be crazy not to reduce the list of probable innocents, unless they believed they had found the Seer. Therefore, I assumed that because they didn't go for me or G55, they must have believed they had the Seer. I explained this on the last page, too. Nerwen would be a totally normal Night 2 pick, yes, but this is not a normal game, is it?

If Galadriel and I are both innocent, and perhaps neither of us is Radagast, and Radagast has by now had two dreams...that's a maximum of two probably-innocents and three known innocents. 5 innocents in an 8 person village, along with 2 wolves and 1 other villager. To me it would make sense for the wolves to have got rid of me or Galadriel last NIGHT, to cut down the number of probably-innocents, unless they had a really good idea who Radagast might be. Perhaps they were being reckless and hoping for maximum gain? Their current odds may not be great.

What? You never once expressed any desire to lynch Nessa until your vote post. This looks like a "look, I helped catch a wolf, I wanted to vote for her all along, afterall."

It probably does look that way. I actually said that because I thought that Nessa must still be reading the game and might be feeling bad about her mistake in voting for Pitchwife. I wanted to let her know I was going to vote for her for a really lousy reason even if she hadn't slipped up, in case that made her feel better.

I didn't express any desire to lynch Nessa before that post because my reasoning for lynching her before then was arbitrary. My two suspects from earlier in the game had disqualified themselves from my idea of how a sensible wolf would be behaving (ironically, Nessa actually was one of them; Shasta was the other one) and I wanted to vote for someone ASAP, but didn't have any suspicions any more. So because Nessa had one vote as opposed to Kitanna's two, I planned to vote for her in order to create a small tie and see if any information could be gained from how people reacted. I wasn't satisfied with that reason at all - it was a terrible reason because it wasn't based on any real suspicion - so I was happy when she placed such a suspicious vote for Pitchwife. A vote for him at that point wasn't going to help the village, so I assumed she wasn't trying to help the village.

...Which is probably a lot more than you wanted to hear. I hadn't mentioned most of this because I thought it was trivial and irrelevant. Anyway, I hope that helps. Next up, I'll get to looking at that Kitanna and Inziladun analysis.

[satansaloser2005]

All quiet on the Werewolf front, it seems. Well, mostly anyway. I'm off to bed, so I'll hopefully see most of you toMorrow.

[Inziladun]

Well, I've been waiting to see if anyone had any concerns I could answer, or anything. I'm sorry, I just need to go to bed now.

If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it.

Choose well. I'm done regardless, so good luck.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, I've been waiting to see if anyone had any concerns I could answer, or anything. I'm sorry, I just need to go to bed now.

If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it.

Choose well. I'm done regardless, so good luck.

I'll do what I can, Dun. I hope you sleep well.

[Galadriel55]

Copper sounds genuine and innocent.

Pitch, meanwhile, looks less than so:

Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.

That's a good way of playing a reverse psychology trick on inocents - "they wouldn't think that a wolf would be dumb enough to add (not even correct... add) to another's statement something that could incriminate him" line of thought. A kind of bluff. A wolf would not emphasize his own guiltiness, right? That must make him innocent etc.

I don't like it.

Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.

And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.

7: She lists our odds again. Stating After reading her scenarios this comment doesn't look too good. The village is so small, losing an innocent through a lynch should always matter.

But that's not what copper said. She was stating the possibilities of a Pitch-modfire or no Pitch-modfire. Not a lynch. And she said that it does not make a difference in the short-term, since no one can stop the wolves at night, and for the villagers it wouldn't matter if they lost during the Day r the following Night. But she said that it'd the worst-case scenario and that it would indeed matter in the long-term.

And I think you're being too harsh with us ordinary villagers. It's a big decision, after all. Let us digest all the information and turn it over in our heads a couple times.

I am being quite angry with this village and am going to keep my dream to myself. It's thanks to Zil who refuses to go down, but just wants to confuse things. I'm frustrated and angry. I also have nothing to lose but my own life at this point.

But the village has a victory to lose without that name - not immediately, but eventually?

In this suggestion, Pitchwife himself would be the packmate he's suggesting Nessa threw away her vote on. Was this a typo, or something?

More like a moment of objectiveness - or reverse psychology. (See above)


Incidentally, can someone please remind me the policy for tied votes?

---

Now after giving my two cents on the previous comments i can adress the Seer issue.

I am more inclined to believe Kit in this. My reasons:

1. She could have been lynched toDay, but it wasn't such a life-or-death situation that she had to save her hide with a false reveal. She wasn't yelling "lynch Zil instead" on the way to the gallows. She kind of said it out of the blue.

2. She revealed first.

3. What Shasta said about naming the ordo.

4. Zil as a fake Seer would of course name her as a wolf, and it's just too convenient to name Nerwen. Not impossible, but just sooo convenient to name an opponent and a dead person.

5. Since Zil is 50% chance a wolf and I suspect Pitch as the last wolf, it looks too much like the two of them are pushing a Kitwaggon together.


So pretty much Zil has my vote, unless something happens overnight that makes the world (or at least my mind) turn over.

If Kit is lynched regardless and turns out innocent, Zil would be the next one to go and I will be looking really hard at Pitch. However, if by some miracle she turns out to be wolf, Zil will likely not survive the Night and Pitch gets off the hook.


Edit: xed with a bunch

[Galadriel55]

To elaborate on my #2 reason (or say what I left unsaid in the previous post): since Zil is second, he's in a self-defence position. He'd do so regardless of alignment. But since Kit revealed first, she's not directly and this moment defending herself, but rather just putting the facts out there.


On a different note, upon rereading his posts Pitch might not look as bad as he seemed to me earlier. There are many what-ifs and holes of other kinds in the picture I had in mind earlier. That's not to say he's off the hook completely by a far shot, but perhaps not so suspicious as to make the siren turn on. Kind of like the orange category rather than the red.

[Coppermirror]

This took me forever to write, and I still haven't come to any conclusions yet. :(

Summary of Inziladun

DAY 1:
1. Asks me if I've given a pre-emptive defence.
2. Says I'm making a point of distancing myself from the wolves, and that the upside of a small village is that suspicious people are more likely to be wolves than Radagast.
3. Says it's harder for submarines to stay low in a small village. Asks for sub-hunter volunteers.
4. A few small things including "Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing."
4. Explains more about sub-hunters. Thanks me for clarifying some things about my behaviour.
5. Says I caused an eyebrow raise but he's not going to vote for me on Day 1. Of Kitanna says she "still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all. " Considers voting for Shasta or Sally, seemingly joking.
6. Responds to Kitanna's call for his reasons. "Just the feel of the first couple of posts. Like I said, it's pretty thin."
7. Goes to bed, hopes to be back before deadline to vote.
8. Briefly mentions everyone but Shasta and Galadriel. Says he was trying to use me as wolf bait earlier. Wonders who to vote for: Kitanna, Sally or Nessa.
9. Votes Kitanna. Says "If she turns out evil, Nerwen, and especially Nessa, might be packmates. If innocent, Sally will look pretty bad in my eyes."

Day 2.

1. Sees no reason for Nerwen to have been killed. Of his vote, says he "decided that it was more unlikely Sally as a wolf would have latched onto Kit the way she did, than it was that Kit herself was evil. I wasn't all that enthused about voting Kit, I just didn't see any better options." Says things would have changed if he'd seen Nessa's vote.
2. Says "What I said about Coppermirror I saw as both a noteworthy mention, as well as an opportunity to see if anyone else suspiciously latched onto it.
My words about Kit had no such secondary thought behind them." Had thought yesterDay that "it might be that Nerwen, by casting suspicion on Sally for voting Kit, and Nessa for echoing it, might be packmates of Kit".
3. Says "Nessa's vote looks inexplicable. I suppose it's possible she put in a vote for a packmate-Pitch".
4. After Kitanna's post, he claims to be the Seer. Says he voted for Kitanna on Night 1 and was gunning for her with the "vague suspicion". Claims his dream last night was Nerwen.
5. Tried to be vague enough that the wolves wouldn't kill him, but to give enough info that villagers could go after her after his death. Thought that "Nerwen might have been trying to raise Sally as an alternative lynch to Kit" and dreamed of her for that reason.
6. Votes for Kitanna.
7. Says people are free to ask questions.
8. Gives his opinions of guilt/innocence.

Of me: probably innocent.
Of G55: probably innocent.
Of Sally: doesn't strike him as a likely wolf.
Of Shasta: doesn't come to a firm conclusion. Mistrusts him in general. Wonders why he would vote for Nessawolf if he's also a wolf.
Of Pitch: finds him enigmatic. Likes his skepticism in sorting between the Seers. Wonders why Nessa went for him: a throwaway vote, or a wolf wanting to vote for a packmate who was unlikely to be lynched?
Of Eomer: trips his radar. Thinks Eomer deliberately misunderstood his intentions with his plan earlier. "his vote for Sally could be his picking up on what Nerwen had said, trying to divert things away from Nessa"

9. Leaves to go to bed. "If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it. "

Summary of Kitanna

DAY 1:
1. Two very trivial posts with little content. Understandable given the point in time. Leaves.
2. Comes back, says it seems as if not much has happened and she'll be reading what's happened.
3. Asks for a reason for Inzil's vague feelings of suspicion. "I'd like a reason. I've said almost nothing."
4. Says there's not much she can say that hasn't been said and resaid.
5. Says Eomer must know the game has started. (Not suspicious.)
6. "I guess I woke up just in time to see votes garnered against me for being vaguely uncomfortable and creepy." Says will probably vote for Inzil as doesn't like his vague feeling and doesn't like the way he claimed to have tried baiting people with me and not her.
7. Votes for Inzil. "I don't trust anything he's said. I'm especially annoyed that he claimed to "bait" Coppermirror, but accused me."

DAY 2:
1. Claims to be the Seer, and claims that she's seen Inzil is a wolf. Says she assumed she would be lynched yesterDay and almost didn't make it.
2. Claims to have dreamt of an innocent on Night 1, and Inzil on Night 2. Says she has a terrible record as a Seer and that sacrificing herself now makes sense.
3. Says that there's nothing she can do to convince us of her innocence over Zil's fake reveal, and that Zil wants us to waste the day. Says that Zil's other dream is conveniently dead. Refuses to give the name of a living known innocent to a village which doesn't trust her.
4. Responds to Pitchwife's concern about why she won't reveal the Innocent: "I've given you a wolf already. And if that still gets me lynched I don't feel inclined to help this village further. I will reveal my dream if this village trusts me enough to lynch Zil." and "You may all waste the day trying to decide who you want to believe. I have nothing left to say on the topic. Once I get back to my house I will concentrate on finding the third wolf."
5. Analyses a number of villagers.

Of me: "That makes me wary, but I'm not sold on her as guilty. I'm not convinced she's innocent either. I'd like to see what else she has to say".
Of Shasta: Thinks he looks slightly innocent because he gave the first vote for Nessa. Doesn't like that he didn't give much of a reason for that vote.
Of Sally: Says she looks like a frustrated innocent crunched for time.
Of Galadriel55: Doesn't know what to make of her. Agrees with her point that a vote for someone who isn't there is easy to hide behind. Thinks it's interesting so many of her suspects are dead, and though she can see her steering votes to packmates, doesn't know if it would happen on Day 1.
Of Eomer: Thinks he may well be Wolf#3. Wants a closer watch kept on him regardless of what happens toDay.
Of Pitch: "Pitch is probably innocent."

She also adds that "I am being quite angry with this village and am going to keep my dream to myself. It's thanks to Zil who refuses to go down, but just wants to confuse things. I'm frustrated and angry. I also have nothing to lose but my own life at this point."

6. Responds to Sally's vote for her with a mock vote for herself. "Just don't kill Sally. She's my other packmate."

This post is getting long, so I'm going to consider my suspicions in a second one. (I still have to write it! This is taking quite some time.)

Anyway, my initial position was one of suspicion for Inzil because it seemed as if a wolf-Kitanna would have little to gain from coming forward. But once Kitanna started posting more about being the Seer, she started sounding really suspicious for her sudden anger at the village and refusal to name the other known innocent (...but I don't see what a wolf would have to gain from that). I'm not confident enough to come to any conclusions yet. I want to consider everything carefully. I'm going to get back to a proper analysis now.

But for the meantime, Kitanna, if you're around now and if you're the Seer, why are you angry with the village? Why are you abandoning us? Please come back and give us the name of the known innocent.

Unfortunately I wasn't here early enough to ask Inzil questions. Although I haven't got any questions in mind yet, I'm sure I will soon.

[Coppermirror]

Okay, I have some questions now. My question for Kitanna about why she got angry with the village so early still stands, but I've got some more. If anyone who can answer them happens to be around, please respond, because answers to these will help me a lot.

Inzil, toDay before Kitanna came forward as the Seer, you seemed to downplay your suspicion of her. Why did you do that, and why didn't you come forward as the Seer toDay yourself beforehand?

Everyone else...If you know, can you tell me whether or not Kitanna's sudden frustrated reaction towards the village is consistent with what you know of her? I've read old stories about other villages with werewolves in them, of course...and a few of them have descendants in this very village. But really, those are very old stories. (It doesn't help me much to know how someone might react back in 2006!)

As things stand, the votes are

Kitanna (3), Inzil (1)

Kitanna for Inzil
Inzil for Kitanna
Pitchwife for Kitanna
Sally for Kitanna

Galadriel says "So pretty much Zil has my vote".
Eomer has yet to vote.
Shasta has yet to vote.
I have yet to vote.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Would it not be likely that, were Kitanna a wolf, they would have killed obvious-Seer Inzil last night? I'm inclined to believe Kitanna at this stage. But it doesn't really matter because they'll both be dead by tomorrow. We need to find the third wolf.

For my money, Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent. Their votes for Nessa were crucial.

[Coppermirror]

I don't necessarily believe all of the theories I've written below. But here:

If Inziladun is the wolf and Kitanna the Seer (speculation)

- Zil may have backed off on his suggestions because he realised he was in danger of getting lynched this Day.
- It was sensible for Kit to come forward immediately.
- Zil had no choice but to come out as a fake Seer.
- It was overly convenient that Zil claimed to dream of Nerwen. He may have thought he was sure to go down, and didn't want to reveal any more innocents.
- He remained calm while Kit lost her temper, and gave away her advantage. A wolf would have a better chance of keeping calm.

Both Kitanna and Inziladun have given lists of those they find suspicious. If the Seer, Kitanna must have hidden the innocent in the list.

I think that if Kitanna is the Seer, she's withholding the known innocent's name because that person will without a doubt be taken in the night if she does. She seems to have had a bad run of Seer-ship in the past. Maybe she was sure she would be lynched and this is why she will not name the innocent.

If Kitanna is the wolf and Inziladun the Seer (speculation)

- Zil may have backed off on his suggestions because he realised he was in danger of getting lynched this Day.
- Kitanna wanted to draw out the Seer, as Pitchwife suggested.
- OR she already thought that Inzil was the Seer, and thought she could get him lynched without using up a Night kill. (Risky...)
- The wolves were in extreme danger toDay from the Seer. A good strategy would be to throw suspicion on the probable innocents, and eliminate the Seer. (But then again, Zil was sure to look like the Seer. It's very risky to go after him toDay rather than last Night.)
- Either way, Zil had no choice but to come forward as the Seer.
- Kit's sudden anger is a calculated attempt to make herself look innocent.
- She's not giving away the name of a "known innocent" (or fake innocent...) because she doesn't want to hand us information. (? I don't think that makes sense. Well, perhaps it's simply a confusion tactic.)
- She did this now because she needs to distract us from catching the third wolf.

I'm troubled because whether or not Inzil is Seer or Wolf, it made some sense for him to be hedging his bets on the first day with what he said at first was a plan to use me as bait but later said that it was all aimed at catching a dreamed-of Kitanna-wolf. Whatever happened he could claim either option.

Both of them have gone through their suspicions. That's what I think a Seer would do. They are both casting suspicion on people.

Honestly I find both our possible Seers very suspicious. I don't feel comfortable being the person to bring Kitanna to 4 votes out of 8, ensuring either a Kitanna lynch or a tie (which would be decided randomly). My gut tells me Kitanna, and my head tells me Inzil, and I don't know which to go with. By now I've spent about 5 hours looking at this, and I'm none the wiser, but much more tired and out of patience. So I'm going to cop out on this and leave it up to the three other people who have yet to vote. We'll know soon enough who's telling the truth, I suppose, even if the circumstances aren't ideal. I may or may not be back before the deadline.

++Inzil

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Might as well do this now.

++ INZILADUN

[Coppermirror]

Current votes: Kitanna (3), Inziladun (3)

In order of placement:

Kitanna for Inziladun
Inziladunfor Kitanna
Pitchwife for Kitanna
Sally for Kitanna
Coppermirror for Inziladun
Eomer for Inziladun

Galadriel and Shasta are the only ones yet to vote.

I've thought about it some more, and I'm now reasonably happy with my vote for Inziladun.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Which means I'll be casting a deciding(ish) vote.

However, it's an easy one at this stage of the game.

++Inzil

Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.

[Kitanna]

I went to bed angry and woke up feeling better.

Sally was Night 1 dream. I do hope G55 does the right thing and votes Zil. Then I can take the hit in the Night and Sally can live another day as a known innocent.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sally was Night 1 dream. I do hope G55 does the right thing and votes Zil. Then I can take the hit in the Night and Sally can live another day as a known innocent.

If that's true, then I'm very pleased! I can stop suspecting her. :p

[Coppermirror]

Phew. I'm glad we voted for Inzil, then. (Unless Kitanna is a very mean wolf, there was no reason for her to come back at this point just to give us a name, when it looks nearly a sure thing that Inzil will be lynched. Unless G55 doesn't show or has changed her mind.) It's good to know that we can trust Sally. I wasn't sure what to think of her. Thanks for coming back to tell us that, Kitanna.

[Coppermirror]

Oh, my post above is wrong. I'm sure you all noticed, but anyway, since the count is Kitanna (3) and Inzil (4), if G55 doesn't turn up, Inzil will still be lynched. The only way he won't be is if G55 votes for Kitanna.

[satansaloser2005]

I went to bed angry and woke up feeling better.

Sally was Night 1 dream. I do hope G55 does the right thing and votes Zil. Then I can take the hit in the Night and Sally can live another day as a known innocent.


That....that actually may make sense. I found your interaction with my on Day 1 to be a it, as I said, creepy, but that....hmmmmm. I can go for that.

At work now. No more reveals while I'm gone, k?

[Galadriel55]

++Inzil

[Galadriel55]

Kit, if you're the Seer (which I believe you are and hope you are), I love you. If you're a wolf, kudos for messing with our heads.

[Galadriel55]

Huh, am I alone here? This is the first time participate in a Day when everyone votes early and there is no last-minute rush of analyses, suspicion, and votes.

To use sally's word, creepy. It seems unnatural, even though whenever there is a rush we complain about it all the time and urge people to vote early. *sigh*

[Kitanna]

Huh, am I alone here? This is the first time participate in a Day when everyone votes early and there is no last-minute rush of analyses, suspicion, and votes.

I think everyone actually voted and voted early. :eek:

PS: Zil, you're a hateful, hateful wolf.

[Coppermirror]

I'm here too, waiting to see what the result is. I'm fairly confident it will be as expected.

[Meneltarmacil]

"I have a confession to make," said Kitanna after gathering the townsfolk together. "I am not the simple hermit you see before you. I am in fact Radagast the Brown, and have used my magic to reveal that Inziladun is a werewolf."

"I have had enough of your lies, hound of Saruman," replied Inzil. "I am the Brown Wizard, and this beast is trying to trick you."

"If you're a wizard, then I'm the King of Gondor," retorted Kit.

"Give it up, you animals!" shouted Sally. "I'm Radagast, and you're both wolves!"

"You can't all be Radagast," observed Coppermirror. "But which one's telling the truth?"

"I say we put them all to a test and let Eru sort them out," G55 suggested. "That way, it'll be fair."

"OK, pie eating contest in five minutes!" said Inzil, accpting the offer. "Let's get this over with."

The villagers agreed, and soon a large number of pies were brought out. After an hour or so, Inzil had won.

"Congratulations, Inzil," said G55. "You get to be lynched."

"What?"

"You picked a contest you were sure to win, baker, and that ravenous appetite doesn't help you any."

Inzil suddenly flew into a rage. "That's it! I don't care how secret we were supposed to be! I've had it with these people!"

With that, he transformed into a ferocious wolf and charged at the villagers. However, he hadn't noticed just how many pies were still left. A food fight started, and the villagers shoved pie after pie into the wolf's face until he suffocated.

---------------------------------------
The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Kitanna: Cranky hermit
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2
Inziladun (Werewolf): Killed in pie fight with villagers on Day 2

It is now Night 3. Villagers, stop posting. I need names from Radagast and the remaining wolf.

[Meneltarmacil]

The rain was falling hard and fast that night, and Kitanna had retired to her small cabin on the outskirts of the village. Once inside, she dispelled the illusion that had been maintained during the day. Where the hermit had been now stood an old man dressed in a brown hood and robe, holding a gnarled oaken staff.

For the hermit Kitanna was merely a cover for Radagast the Brown, who had moved to Rohan upon learning of Saruman's treachery. The wizard lit a fire with his staff and pondered what to do about th last wolf.

Suddenly, there was a loud Bang and the door shuddered. Radagast raised his staff and peered cautiously at the door.

"Enter if you must, wolf, but be warned, for I came from the same stock as your master," he said.

The wolf accepted the challenge, knocking down the door and leaping upon the wizard with a savage growl. The old man was surprisingly strong when provoked, and threw the wolf back. The wolf momentarily paused, seeing Radagast somehow greater in stature and glowering menacingly.

"Begone and trouble this village no more!" shouted the wizard. The wolf was no fool, though, seeing the illusion for what it was. The beast leapt forward again, knocking the wizard back and shattering his staff into pieces. Shaken by this new twist of fate, Radagast offered little resistance as the wolf snapped his neck.

Before the wolf could devour the body, though, it dissolved into a grey mist. Rising upward, it hovered for a while until a wind mysteriously picked up and carried it west.

All the villagers found in the morning were a pile of tattered robes and a broken staff.

Saruman grinned upon seeing what had transpired. At last that meddlesome, bird-loving fool had gotten what he deserved.
--------------------------------------------------------
The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2
Inziladun (Werewolf): Killed in pie fight with villagers on Day 2
Kitanna (Radagast): Neck snapped by wolf on Night 3

It is now Day 3. Villagers, post away.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh. Right. There's no ranger in this game. Forget I said anything then. D'oh. I clearly need to pay more attention. Anyway, moving on.

So....lycanthropy....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The only thing that looks certain, from Inzil's posts, is that Sally is innocent. That's... helpful. :D

I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two. I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent. Add to that list Coppermirror and G55, due to their votes for Nessa, and my guess for third wolf is the one left over:

Shasta.

[Coppermirror]

Kitannagast, your sacrifice was noble! But now we need to get a new cranky hermit for Isenbridge.

Come to think of it, we need a new baker, midwife, fisherman...And we need to advertise for a new horse trader, too. Nerwen, maysherestinpeace, was...perhaps not the most honest of them all. The horses are in such bad condition that I bet that's why the werewolves haven't tried to eat them.

Let's just not tell potential new bakers what happened to the last one.

We're doing extremely well. I honestly never expected us to get past Day 2.

Anyway...

Wolves: Nessa, Inziladun.

Potential wolves: Eomer, Shasta, Pitchwife.

Probably innocent: Galadriel55

Known innocents: Sally, Coppermirror (known to me, anyway)

Deceased known innocents: Nerwen, Kitanna

So naturally I'll be looking at the three I consider most suspicious. Day 1 and Day 2 before Kitanna's revelation should be the most useful, because after that point, Inzil and the other wolf knew Inzil was done for. That said, Inzil was already under suspicion at the start of Day 2, so they should have been very cautious then...Anyway, for Pitchwife, there's no choice but to look at Day 2. At present I don't have any particular idea of who is the most suspicious of those three. I'm not totally ruling out Galadriel55, but I think it's very unlikely that she's a wolf.

I have to sleep now, so I'll be back later.

[satansaloser2005]

The only thing that looks certain, from Inzil's posts, is that Sally is innocent. That's... helpful. :D

Or, you know, from Kit's post. :rolleyes:

Can it be true though? Could my psychic flaming wolf boy be....well, a psychic flaming wolf boy? My partner in song, tell me it's not true!

Actually, toDay is going to be rather horrid for me; I'll have but a couple of hours this evening to really read through things, and I doubt I'll be able to be on my laptop at all. I'll make a list this afternoon and try to post it before I head off to my evening plans. Let us get the last wolf toDay so that I may be alive to claim the victory with you. For Kit!

[Galadriel55]

O the horror of it all! Kitannadagast, I shall weave the tragic tale of your end into my tapestries, so that your heroic deeds will be remembered forever!



My suspicion list at the moment is a copy of mirror's, except that just switch my name around with hers. I shall take a look at Shasta, Pitch, and Eomer.

[Pitchwife]

I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two.
He didn't have to. In case it isn't clear, I finished reading Day One's proceedings thinking that he was probably the Seer who had dreamed a Kitwolf (as may have been intented by his "ill-defined feeling of unease" and voting her on such vague grounds); only if that was true, the wolves would have spotted him and killed him instead of Nerwen (Shasta, I hope this answers your question in #112). When Kit revealed and he counter-revealed, I thought this could be an alternative wolf plan to get rid of him. Obviously not.
I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent.
That is of course nice to hear, but are you sure you aren't trying the same tactic you just ascribed to Zil?

[Pitchwife]

OK, so the unknowns from my perspective are (in alphabetical order) Cop, Eomer, Gal and Shasta. The last wolf has to be one of these four.

For the record, I don't like all the hullabaloo Cop made about herself and Gal being innocent based on their roles in slaying Nessa, never failing to associate the two of them, which has a whiff of wolf buddying up to innocent. Also, her explanation of how she came to vote Nessa in #67 would sound wolvish like hell if Nessa hadn't been a wolf herself (more or less "Hm, I need someone to suspect, I think I'll pick Nessa. O look, she's done something suspicious! Great, I can vote her now!":rolleyes:)
On the other hand, her D1 vote tied Nessa with Kit, and her D2 vote was the second for Zil after three for Kit. I have a hard time imagining a newbie wolf cub making two such brazen wolf-on-wolf votes in a row, and am therefore inclined to believe her innocent and chalk the passage in #67 up to noobishly awkward wording.

(to be continued)

[Pitchwife]

Eomer
His dislike of both the Nessa votes and Nessa'sown vote, maintaining a conveniently neutral position, as well as his throwaway vote for sally on D1 could fit the third wolf. His first reaction to the two seer-reveals was pretty non-committal (#100), but later he argued in Kit's favour (#127) and ended up voting Zil, tying him with Kit at three votes each.

Now I know (unlike the rest of you) that Zil's and Nessa's packmate did the sensible thing yesterDay and voted the dreamed wolf, leaving it to two innocents to try to lynch the revealed Seer:rolleyes:; so the only thing about the D2 votes we can draw conclusions from is the time they were made and how they changed the tally. That said, I highly doubt a wolf would tie their packmate with the seer -

- although, like Eomer said himself in #127, it didn't matter because they'd both be dead anyway (even if Kit had been lynched, Zil would be lynched toDay), and the wolf would of course want to make xemself look good, so it would actually be a sensible thing to do from both perspectives. Garrrh.

It's difficult to reach a conclusion about him, but if I limit the amount of overthinking I'm willing to engage in, he does look better toDay than he did early yesterDay. As to his suspecting Shasta over me, I can only say it seems a very Eomerish thing.

(to be continued)

* * *

PS. Where is everybody else, by the way? Looks like I may end up quadruple-posting:eek:...

[Pitchwife]

Galadriel, the 55th of her name
On D1 she first suspected Nerwen for some vibe feeling (in a post that x-ed with Nessa's vote for me and Cop's vote for Nessa), but then scolded Nessa rather harshly and drove the final nail into her coffin. Could be a wolf deciding to push what's falling and make herself look good in the process, but on D1 and with two votes for an innocent to piggyback on? I doubt it. Her explanation for her vote in #63 does sound a little self-conscious though.

YesterDay she turned up rather late, seemed to trust Kit from the get-go and suspected me for pushing the Kitwagon together with Zil.

(Which reminds me, I owe her an answer to this:
And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.
In theory, you're totally right. In praxi, I had to vote by the time I did, and had to make up my mind which seer to trust, so I pressed Kit for her dream because if she was fake, she might somehow contradict herself, and took her refusal as indication that she had no dream to tell and was reluctant to invent one. If I could have waited, I would have.)

She later relativized her suspicion of me, keeping me in the orange category however, and later gave the last vote to Zil after stating her intention to do so earlier.

Oh well. A wolf would of course have known that Kit was genuine, which could explain her lack of doubt, and she only voted Zil when the only other thing she could have done would have been to create a tie, which would have been frowned on once their roles were known. But her stated intention to vote Zil was apparently one cause for Shasta to vote him, and I don't know that a Galwolf would have gone to such lengths to lynch her packmates. If she's lupine and wins this way, I'd say she deserves it.

(to be continued)

* * *

Really, where are you all? I'm getting tired of talking to myself. Maybe I shouldn't sign up for games where the only time I have to play is when nobody else is online.:rolleyes:

[Galadriel55]

I only quoted the posts I think important. And I only read the thread up to my last post; I refreshed the thread and saw that Pitch (and perhaps others) posted after it, but I want to post this first and then read new posts.


Shasta

DAY1:

Funnily enough, I was going to say relatively the same thing... only replacing your name with Eomer's. Hmm. I do need to vote (I'm about to hit the hay), so I think I'm going to go ahead and vote for -

++Nessa

There were only two votes at that point, both for Kit. This vote for Nessa looks more like a psychic at work than a wolf bussing a mate.

DAY2:


Right, I'm here, and reading. Bit of luck on the Nessa vote - I noted someone else had seen what I'd seen about her, and something was telling me "bad!" and I had to vote, so. I apologize for my relative lack of being here. I'll do better.

Sounds realistic enough.

#112 is long and my comments short. Just a few remarks, replying to the other's comments. Asks for a few clarifications. Doesn't like sally's post.

Right, so, we've got Kitanna versus Inzil for today. I'm going to go back and look at Day 1 - although, interestingly, a Kitwolf would know all the innocents in the village, plus, this is a prime opportunity to mess with the village's mind should she be lynched (she tells us Person A is a dreamt innocent, dies a wolf. Was she trying to protect Person A (her packmate)? Was she trying to get them lynched via WIFOM? etc.)

It's weird to me that a Kitwolf wouldn't just go ahead and say someone was innocent. Whereas a frustrated innocent Kit might just be contrary because she's not being believed.

I entirely agree with this post, and this was part of my reasining for voting Zil yesterDay. Aside from that, I think that if Shasta is the last wolf he was rather mean to Zil. Had he not so obviously chose Kit as Seer here and continued with this attitude, he could have likely saved his mate. I know Shasta isn't the kind to feel bad about bussing mates, especially those that will be dead anyway the next Day at the latest, but the Kitwagon was going well and he could have bought Zil another Day with little risk to himself. This post basically changed the vote pattern around. (There was one vote for Zil and 3 for Kit at that point). This makes me think of Shasta as more innocent.

#15 - Inzil says Kit strikes him as "a bit off, but it's really a thin thing."

#22 - Inzil on Kit again - "some ill-defined feeling of unease"

#23 - Kit wants a reason for Inzil's suspicion.

#24 - Inzil mentions "the feel of the first couple posts."

#48 - Inzil - "It is a bit suspicious the way Sally latched onto what I said about Kit. Funny thing is, I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit."

#49 - Inzil votes Kit.

#52 - Kit - "I'll probably vote for Zil at this point. Because I don't like his "Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing." and "I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit.""

#62 - Kit votes Inzil.

Conclusion - Well, it does look like a standard Seer lead-up on Inzil's part, and Kit does look a bit retaliatory, as though she's realized she's in trouble. But if that's so, and Kitwolf did realize Inzilgast had dreamt her, why not kill Inzil last night?

No comment.

Which means I'll be casting a deciding(ish) vote.

However, it's an easy one at this stage of the game.

++Inzil

Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.

It was 3-3 when Shasta voted.




Eomer

DAY1:

I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.

So two of these are proven ordos and one is a proven wolf. I can see an Ordomer guess one out of three, and I can also see a Wolfomer throw a packmate into a list of suspects.

At the risk of defending her and creating a sort of 'faction', there's something weird about Inzil's insistence on Kitanna. Trying to bait Coppermirror but ending up with Kit? I've just re-read the thread and I don't really see it.

Also, not at all clear how he feels he can judge Nerwen or Nessa's role by discovery of Kitanna's.

Eomer insists on questioning Inzil. I haven't played with him as a wolf yet, but I imagine he would have no trouble dumping a mate into deep water. This would make Wolfomer look good later if Inzilafolf is lynched: Eomer casts some doubt on him ("see, I suspected him too!") but at such a time when it was safe to do so.

Yet the above scenario is also a bit of a stretch. It could just be Ordomer suspecting a wolf.

If he had picked on innocent Kitanna, though, Inzil has vowed to go after Sally. So it seems unlikely that, if he's wolvish, that Sally is too.

I don't like either of the two votes for Nessa NOR do I like Nessa's vote for Pitch.

Votes Sally. This vote would fit in nicely with the scenario of a Wolfomer casting just enough suspicion on Zil to make the survivor look innocent should one of them be lynched. First he makes a combination of Zil-sally-Nerwen. Goes after Zil. Decides Zil and sally can't be wolves together. Votes Sally. Very cleanly done, if he's a wolf. And if he's not, that's also possible.

What picks me is that the two players with the most votes (Kit and Nessa) barely got a mention from him. All Day. Even at the end of the Day when all the talk was about them. I don't love the fixation on Inzil and sally.

DAY2:

As I was asked about it, I will explain why I didn't like the first two votes for Nessa.

Nessa's post #42 is where it all fell apart for her, which I find.... rather fortuitous. She comments that she suspected Sally's actions in jumping onto Inziladun's train of thought, and voting for Kitanna.

To my mind, there is nothing suspicious here. Wasn't everyone a bit suspicious of what Sally did? But then Nerwen (proven innocent now) suspects Nessa from this, and Shasta jumps in with a vote. Coppermirror then votes for Nessa too, albeit with a better reason (Nessa's vote for Pitch). Coppermirror then clarified that the earlier 'suspicion' of Nessa was not a deciding factor, and so I look more favourably on her now.

G55's vote makes her look very innocent, that's true. I am less inclined to drop my guard around Shasta, however.

Ok.

Inziladun,

Looking back.... I'm not really sure how I got confused! :D

So, to clarify: you did not really suspect Coppermirror, but were trying to hook a wolf into that particular net. Nothing came of it.

Your suspicion of Kitanna was genuine, and it inadvertently snared someone (Sally: whether good or evil we don't know, of course).

Apologies for being slow!

However, this does nothing to stop me from thinking your suspicion of Kitanna is weird.

So keeps Zil hanging out there in the middle. Neither here nor there.

Whichever one it is, there will be connexions to analyse from Day One: both Kitanna and Inzil were in the thick of things. And considering that first days are often uneventful and lacking in content, I'm glad our Seer battle is between these two!

Hmm.

Would it not be likely that, were Kitanna a wolf, they would have killed obvious-Seer Inzil last night? I'm inclined to believe Kitanna at this stage. But it doesn't really matter because they'll both be dead by tomorrow. We need to find the third wolf.

For my money, Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent. Their votes for Nessa were crucial.

Just like Shasta, Eomer takes Kit's side when there's still a chance to save Zil. But now less of a chance; Shasta and I all but voted already. So this post does not necessarily speak in favour of Eomer innocence.

Also, I don't like the "it doesn't matter" attitude. I think it matters very much if we get a wolf earlier rather than later.

#129 - Votes Zil.

DAY3:

The only thing that looks certain, from Inzil's posts, is that Sally is innocent. That's... helpful. :D

I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two. I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent. Add to that list Coppermirror and G55, due to their votes for Nessa, and my guess for third wolf is the one left over:

Shasta.

Ok.





Pitchie

DAY2:

Seriously, sorry for doing a Kath yesterDay and thanks to Shasta, Cop and Gal for foiling Nessa Fenrinya's attempt on my unprotected life. Speaking of which, I wonder how much hope she had it would succeed - I mean, there had been some talk of submarine-hunting earlier, but lynching somebody who's in danger of modfire anyway would be considered a wasted lynch in most villages, especially one so small.

If, however, she felt she could afford to make a throwaway vote, there must either have been some chance of lynching an innocent at the time she voted - which would speak for Kit and against sally and/or Zil - , or her packmates hadn't voted yet and she was leaving things in their hands - which would point to those who voted after but not for her, i.e. Kit and Eomer (disregarding for now the possibility of wolf-on-wolf votes).

Now if the latter is true and Kit is one of the wolves, that would mean there were two wolves in danger of being lynched yesterDay and no innocent bandwagon to fall back on; which would explain the lack of any concerted attempt to save Nessa. But in this case I'd have expected to find Zil dead toDay instead of Nerwen.

* * *

Good questions both, I'd like to hear that too. But Cop, why did you think Nerwen a possible seer?

Neutral observations, imo. Doesn't say anything particular about role.

Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.

Objective observation or a self-deprecating wolf?

Um, why would she want to distance herself from the lynching of a wolf? Doesn't make sense to me (unlike the rest of your reasoning here).


The thing is, everything she said against Nessa or other people was based on sound reasoning, and nothing looks to me like it was arrived at by Nightly inspiration. Trailless kill seems much more likely to me.

(x-ed with Kit and Cop. :eek:)

True.

She's not saying she thinks, she says she knows.

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?

Also, since you'll be dead toMorrow, I think it would be a good idea to tell us your other dream and give us a known innocent (assuming you didn't dream another wolf, in which case I'd think you'd have said so).

So far so good again. Nothing role-revealing.

Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.

All right, so yesterDay that post got me into a mood that really went not in Pitchie's favour. The reason for that is that I've seen almost exact copies of that post said by wolves who want to avoid any extra interaction that may get them under suspicion, or to hide the fact that they have extra knowledge behind the convenient situation that now everyone knows it.

Now, though, as I reread the thread I can see a reason for an innocent Pitch to be so passionate about it. Kit didn't say she'll wait a bit before giving the name. She said she won't give it to a village that doesn't trust her, which, from a certain point of view, could sound ridiculous.

Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.

Would that not be a convenient post for a wolf to make? "I don't like it, so that's my excuse for when she turns out innocent, but I'll vote her anyway since she, after all, is more suspicious and less believable and etc ".

But on the other hand, again, Pitch could just be an innocent who believed Zil but had a genuine bad feeling about lynching Kit.

And if we lynch Zil and find him genuine, the point will be moot anyway, is that it?

That's said about Kit's refusal to name the dreamed innocent.

I have to vote now, as it's bedtime for me and I most likely won't be able to come online again before DL (which is near the end of my workday).

I hate this whole situation, and if Kit's a wolf, she does the angry frustrated innocent part really well. Also I concur with some of her analyses, most notably those of Cop (whom I think more probably innocent, however) and Eomer (funny, since I considered him a likely packmate for a Kitwolf earlier).

How likely is it, though, that a Zilwolf just happened to random-suspect our seer, of all people, in a seerish-looking way? Also, how much danger of getting lynched toDay was Kit really in prior to her reveal? (Yes, I mentioned her as a possible packmate of Nessa's in my first post, and the thought that Zil was the seer and had dreamed her had crossed my mind, but his continuing existence among the living cast a lot of doubt on that.) What I'm saying is wolvish guilt may have led her to underestimate her chances.

I really think it makes more sense the other way 'round, and Kitwolf is sacrificing herself in order to take down the seer before he can dream her last packmate.

Therefore
++Kitanna

Zil, if you're a wolf, well done. Kit, if you're a wolf, that was a brave attempt; if you're the real seer, may we meet in the flesh some day so you can slap me to your heart's content.

Can't tell much about the intentions behind the words from the arguments; they are true and most things are taken in consideration. The vote for Kit could be cast by a confused ordo (sally's there too) or a knowing wolf. But it works just a bit too well if Pitch is the last wolf who was trying to save his mate, and since he voted early it explains why no one gave the final push to the Kitwagon. Unless the remaining wolf is bold and confident enough to sacrifice Zil just in case, even when there was a good chance of saving him.

Just a note before I leave:

Shasta voted Nessa [I]before she voted me. He was laconic enough about his reasons, but if I understand him right, he was going exclusively on the latching-on point mentioned by Nerwen.

A correction. Quite true.




Anyways, I still don't have a clear picture of who might be the last wolf, but Pitch and Eomer seem to me more likely choices than Shasta.

[Galadriel55]

- although, like Eomer said himself in #127, it didn't matter because they'd both be dead anyway (even if Kit had been lynched, Zil would be lynched toDay), and the wolf would of course want to make xemself look good, so it would actually be a sensible thing to do from both perspectives. Garrrh.

Good point, actually. I have looked over that in my analysis/summary. This kinda makes a number of points I made moot.

A wolf would of course have known that Kit was genuine, which could explain her lack of doubt, and she only voted Zil when the only other thing she could have done would have been to create a tie, which would have been frowned on once their roles were known.

Oh, I was torn alright. It was all because of Zil's D1 "I don't like Kit but it's really thin" talk that made me confused at first (since how likely is that?). But then there was the time when Seeromer dreamed Nerwen and Shasta the first 2 Nights, who he said were wolves, but they claimed to be both gifted. So coincidences happen. And other than that Zi's pick of Kit and Nerwen (the other Seer and a dead person) as dreams sounded just too much like a typical self-defensive fake reveal. Now if he said he's just an ordo, or said he dreamt someone else...

But anyways, I did debate quite a lot in my head. The reason you don't know about it is because I barely had time to write my final decision, forget about the process by which I arrived to it. I post only 2 or 3 times a Day, which is abnormally quiet for me.

But her stated intention to vote Zil was apparently one cause for Shasta to vote him, and I don't know that a Galwolf would have gone to such lengths to lynch her packmates. If she's lupine and wins this way, I'd say she deserves it.

Huh, I wish I would play like you describe as a wolf! :rolleyes:

[/self-opinion]

Really, where are you all? I'm getting tired of talking to myself. Maybe I shouldn't sign up for games where the only time I have to play is when nobody else is online.:rolleyes:

I was there, but I was writing the analyses for 3 or 4 hours. It doesn't actually take that long, but it does when 5 different people call you to do all kids of stuff when you're in the middle of a thought process.

[Galadriel55]

Also, I don't know why exactly, but the last few posts by Pitchie make me drop my suspicions on him a bit again. Head tells me "danger" and vibes tell me "safe". Ddd Urgh! Why am I so conflicted about Pitch?


...I know why. Because Lommy isn't playing. Someone has to do her job for her. :rolleyes:


(mirror, to explain this to you since I'm not sure you know how Lommy - aka Thinlomien - plays, she's famous for flip-flopping)

[Galadriel55]

Ah, it feels good to quadruple-post! :) Finally I feel like I'm playing properly! :D

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Or, you know, from Kit's post. :rolleyes:

That's the joke.

[Pitchwife]

Shasta
Was the first to vote Nessa on D1, and one of the starters of suspicion against her together with Nerwen (accepting that he'd had the thought independent of her, as he claimed). At the time the only reason to suspect Nessa was her famous latching on to Nerwen's/Eomer's suspicion of sally for latching on... (you all know the story), so he couldn't foresee she would earn more votes for her throwaway vote for me; meaning if this was a wolf-on-wolf vote, he could not know Nessa would end up dead - although he had reason to expect Nerwen might vote her too (on the off chance of a Nerwen vote on D1), so it was risky as well as unnecessary, if not as risky as if he'd made the vote later.

(To be clear, I'm talking about the guy who won his last wolf game triumphantly over the corpses of his ruthlessly bussed packmates, so there's little in wolf-on-wolfing that I'd put beyond him.)

Turned up late on D2, long post in which he questions me, sally and Cop, explains himself to Kit and banters with Zil; nothing eyebrow-raising in there. Argued for Kit being legit; summary of Zil, concluding that
it does look like a standard Seer lead-up on Inzil's part, and Kit does look a bit retaliatory, as though she's realized she's in trouble. But if that's so, and Kitwolf did realize Inzilgast had dreamt her, why not kill Inzil last night?
Weighing the arguments, nothing wrong with that.
Then votes Zil, putting him in the lead, because:

Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.
Now this last reason sounds weird to me. Shasta, if you believed Kit to be the real Seer (as your previous posts indicate), why even consider tying it up? Why even mention that it played a role in your decision, when "I believe Kit, see above" would have been perfectly sufficient? Or did you secretly wish you could have voted differently and gave yourself away here?

[Pitchwife]

Gal, just so you know where I was coming from yesterDay: a long time ago I was once a seer and had revealed when a wolf counter-revealed; my dream had been killed the Night before, while he claimed to have dreamt a living innocent. He was caught when he started suspecting the very person he claimed to have dreamt as innocent. (OK, that was Morsul, and Kit, even if a wolf, would never have been so clumsy, but it was worth a try.)

[Pitchwife]

So it's Eomer or Shasta.

Gal has two very good points here:
Votes Sally. This vote would fit in nicely with the scenario of a Wolfomer casting just enough suspicion on Zil to make the survivor look innocent should one of them be lynched. First he makes a combination of Zil-sally-Nerwen. Goes after Zil. Decides Zil and sally can't be wolves together. Votes Sally. Very cleanly done, if he's a wolf. And if he's not, that's also possible.

What picks me is that the two players with the most votes (Kit and Nessa) barely got a mention from him. All Day. Even at the end of the Day when all the talk was about them. I don't love the fixation on Inzil and sally.
and
Just like Shasta, Eomer takes Kit's side when there's still a chance to save Zil. But now less of a chance; Shasta and I all but voted already. So this post does not necessarily speak in favour of Eomer innocence.
In my post on Eomer above I only looked at the tally, not the posts that were made between votes and stated opinions. This does change the picture.

Also, saying if that sally's not a wolf if Zil is and declaring me innocent and misled by Zil "buddying up to me" (which I must say I didn't notice if he did it) look like fishing for innocent allies.

Finally, Shasta isn't here to defend himself against my Freudian interpretation of his vote post, and I like to be sporting toDay.

++Eomer

Á vala Manwë, and good night.

[Galadriel55]

Gal, just so you know where I was coming from yesterDay: a long time ago I was once a seer and had revealed when a wolf counter-revealed; my dream had been killed the Night before, while he claimed to have dreamt a living innocent. He was caught when he started suspecting the very person he claimed to have dreamt as innocent. (OK, that was Morsul, and Kit, even if a wolf, would never have been so clumsy, but it was worth a try.)

Ah. Alright. I had very vivid memories of Borowolf besieging RangerNerwen about who she saved the Night before. (That game wolves won and chaos reigned and it was all very epic, but I would not like a repeat, thank you). And then less vivid memories from other games as well.



I rather like Pitch's vote. Adds to the number of notches for his innocence.

[Galadriel55]

Now I feel like I'm alone here. Been waiting for the past couple hours for someone to post.

[Galadriel55]

Y'all are boring. I'm going to bed.

For the vote, it's between Pitch, Shasta, and Eomer. Whoever manages to convince me better of his guilt by the end of the Day receives the vote! :p


ETA: I shall be back before DL to make a final decision and vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Clearly G55 is sexist. :p

In other news, here and reading.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two. I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent. Add to that list Coppermirror and G55, due to their votes for Nessa, and my guess for third wolf is the one left over:

Shasta.

It's funny, because I also voted Nessa. :rolleyes:

Can it be true though? Could my psychic flaming wolf boy be....well, a psychic flaming wolf boy? My partner in song, tell me it's not true!

Okay, it's not true.

It's difficult to reach a conclusion about him, but if I limit the amount of overthinking I'm willing to engage in, he does look better toDay than he did early yesterDay. As to his suspecting Shasta over me, I can only say it seems a very Eomerish thing.


Yeah, he does that.

Now this last reason sounds weird to me. Shasta, if you believed Kit to be the real Seer (as your previous posts indicate), why even consider tying it up? Why even mention that it played a role in your decision, when "I believe Kit, see above" would have been perfectly sufficient? Or did you secretly wish you could have voted differently and gave yourself away here?

...Because it would have been funny? :p I never seriously considered tying the vote between Inzil and Kit. I was just imagining all the delicious reactions if I'd made that vote, and it made me snicker, so I made a comment about it. :D



In any case, I'm hesitant to narrow it down so far. As far as I'm concerned, the only clear person is Sally. I'm going to go have a look at Cop, since no else seems to be doing such. It'll be up a bit later - this DL is awkward for me. That's the main reason I haven't been around as much as usual - 8 AM combined with my ridiculous sleep schedule is just silly!

[Galadriel55]

Clearly G55 is sexist. :p

I guess I'm filling in for Agan too. :p

Ok, now to bed for real... unless another post appears in the next minute or so. Ah, the addictiveness of werewolf!

Edit: xed with Shasta's second post. Yay!

[Galadriel55]

It's funny, because I also voted Nessa. :rolleyes:

Aye, but under different circumstances.

I'm going to go have a look at Cop, since no else seems to be doing such.

Personally I highly doubt she's a wolf. The D1 vote would have been immensly daring and unexpected for a first vote ever. And in general copper's comments strike me as jen-you-wine, usually making sense and pretty sharp, only sometimes with the trace of newbishness.


And, as Pitch said, if she's a wolf and is playing her first ever game so well, she deserves to win. Though I'd rather have a goodies' victory in that case, I would not grudge a loss to her. But that's beside the point. I'm not analysing her posts because she doesn't strike me as the remaining wolf.

Bed! 'Night all!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Shasta, you voted Nessa for no discernible reason. Like I said before, I find that rather fortuitous. Cop and G's votes were decisive, hence I believe them to be innocent.

G55, I seem to remember talking about Kit a bit on Day One (to defend her from Inzil); I talked about Nessa when she received votes and voted herself. Don't really understand this criticism; don't really understand why Pitch is so compelled by it.

[Coppermirror]

Back now. I'm going to do a quick analysis of the first two Days for each person and then look at the posts from toDay.

[Coppermirror]

I'm starving hungry, so posting my analysis and deciding on a vote will have to wait until after dinner (can't concentrate any more!). But currently I am tending towards seeing Pitchwife as innocent, leaving Eomer and Shasta as the remaining suspects. Points made by G55 and Pitch about Eomer seem fairly persuasive, so if I had to pick someone ASAP, I would probably pick Eomer. But I still need to consider the case against Shasta carefully. He hasn't said much yet, so I want to see more of what he has to say. He's planning to analyse me, but I would very much like to see what he thinks of the other candidates too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

#19 - summary of posts thus far. Doesn't think anyone looks very suspicious as of yet. Has been talking a bit with Inzil.

#39 - notes that she'd intended to vote for one of the quieter players/people who haven't shown up.

#46 - does the math on what it will mean for the village should Pitch be modfired.

#55 - votes for Nessa. Reasons given - won't vote for Pitch as he's likely to be modfired, and this;

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

ShastaNotes - Hm. In hindsight, obviously, the fact that Nessa ended up a wolf makes this vote look better. At the time, though, Kit had two votes and (assuming, obviously, Inzilwolf and Sallyordo) the third wolf yet to vote, so this could be a wolf-on-wolf vote. I say this because Cop's reasons for her vote aren't actually that great, considering basically anything anyone says at any time could be "cover for a wolf".

#59 - responds to Nessa. In my paranoia (and my own stubborn refusal to go with the crowd, since basically everyone else thinks she's innocent), this post reads like Wolf A apologizing to Wolf B for voting them.


Day 2:

#67 - Hm.

Whoa, so they took Nerwen. I'm really surprised. They must have thought she was the Seer. I thought she was a possible Seer too, but evidently not. I was sure that they would go for me or for Galadriel55, unless they thought they could get the Seer.

Where's Lottie when you need her? Now, I'm the first to call her out for basing her biases off things like this, but this really does look like someone who's trying too hard to be innocent.

Also:

I was planning to vote for Nessa anyway, but out of a last minute "I have to vote for somebody and don't want to get on the Kitanna bandwagon or waste my vote!" worry rather than any actual suspicion. But her voting for Pitchwife seemed suspicious and gave me a real reason to vote for her, and also made Galadriel55 suspicious enough to vote. It's great that she really was a wolf.


None of this tracks with your stated reason for voting Nessa (see above.) It also strikes me as more of the whole "acting innocent" thing. I could do an impression, but that's more Sally's thing. :p

Also posts a list. Very suspicious of Inzil, suspicious of Eomer and Sally.


On a slight tangent -

To my mind, there is nothing suspicious here. Wasn't everyone a bit suspicious of what Sally did? But then Nerwen (proven innocent now) suspects Nessa from this, and Shasta jumps in with a vote. Coppermirror then votes for Nessa too, albeit with a better reason (Nessa's vote for Pitch). Coppermirror then clarified that the earlier 'suspicion' of Nessa was not a deciding factor, and so I look more favourably on her now.

Keep in mind, Cop didn't clarify anything about the reasons for her vote until after Nessa was revealed as a wolf, which means it could easily be fabricated clarification.



#78 - analyzes Nessa's vote for Pitchwife and the wolf pack's kill of Nerwen. All decent reasoning as far as I can tell, except for the things that were already mentioned earlier in thread.

#79 - three paragraphs of defending Inzil for his "wolf-hooking" plan, and then this -

Which is not to say that Inzil isn't still suspicious.

Bit of a turnaround there, I think.

#119 - As I read this post, I'm slowly realizing that I'm stating a lot of what Kitanna already said, and that you've already answered. :rolleyes:

Especially about the Nessa-vote. I see you've answered that. It appears you had a fine reason to vote for Nessa the whole time... so why not just say that from the beginning? Now there's no proof that you didn't think up the entire thing after the fact. :(

#125 - analyzes Inzil and Kitanna regarding the Seer claims.

#127 - after another long theoretical analysis, votes Inzil. This turned out to be the correct vote, but I don't like this -

Honestly I find both our possible Seers very suspicious. I don't feel comfortable being the person to bring Kitanna to 4 votes out of 8, ensuring either a Kitanna lynch or a tie (which would be decided randomly). My gut tells me Kitanna, and my head tells me Inzil, and I don't know which to go with. By now I've spent about 5 hours looking at this, and I'm none the wiser, but much more tired and out of patience. So I'm going to cop out on this and leave it up to the three other people who have yet to vote. We'll know soon enough who's telling the truth, I suppose, even if the circumstances aren't ideal. I may or may not be back before the deadline.

This makes it look like you were setting yourself up to have been suspicious of both Inzil and Kitanna... if you were a wolf, you'd know who was lying and who was telling the truth, and... I'm not actually sure what that means in regards to your wolfishness or innocence. I'm tired. But something tells me it's important, so I'm leaving it here.

#146 - Potential wolves are Eomer, myself, and Pitchwife. This tracks from her previous day's suspicion, when she was confident in G55's innocence.

Conclusions to come. My eyes are blurring.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, so, those of you who know me know that I tend to lean on the side of suspicion when I analyze somebody (it's the paranoia, I promise). My analysis of Cop isn't much different - I saw several things that made me suspicious. However, as late in the day as it is, with no one else around, I feel like voting for Cop now would be a throwaway vote - also, knowing how biased I can be, I'd like to give her a chance to at least respond to what I've written. Plus I've got to hit the hay.

Having said that, I feel like I don't have much choice but to go with the self-preservation vote -

++Eomer

Good night.

[Coppermirror]

I don't think that we have much to learn from yesterDay's voting. It would be a good tactic for a wolf to vote for Inzil there and leave the innocents to vote for Kitanna, and after the point when it looked as if innocents might not go for Kitanna it would still be good for self preservation.

Eomer

In general, I think Eomer has been sensible and logical throughout the game. However, there are some points of concern.

"Drat and bebother this village. I don't like either of the two votes for Nessa NOR do I like Nessa's vote for Pitch."

Then in a later comment he votes for Sally.

If he's a wolf, it's impossible for him to be defending a Pitchwolf here. It is possible that he's a wolf defending a fellow Nessawolf and trying to discourage a third vote for her. He explains his reasoning later, and it makes decent sense.


Eomer insists on questioning Inzil. I haven't played with him as a wolf yet, but I imagine he would have no trouble dumping a mate into deep water. This would make Wolfomer look good later if Inzilafolf is lynched: Eomer casts some doubt on him ("see, I suspected him too!") but at such a time when it was safe to do so.

This is a good point. It was a very safe time for him to be suspicious of Inzil.

His comment earlier about thinking he sees a move and considering the possibility of "Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates" (followed by a later vote for Sally) may have been an attempt to cast suspicion on the latter two innocents. Hmm...This is quite vague, but I wonder if, given that Inzil was looking suspicious at the end of Day 1, Nerwen being killed was a response to Eomer's analysis? Perhaps to try to make him or Inzil look less suspicious. I'm not sure this reasoning follows, so I'll look it over again once I'm done.

He still voted for Sally even after Nessa's suspicious move. It was essentially a throwaway vote, and it came a minute after G55's vote for Nessa, so he may or may not have seen the latter.

Inzilwolf's analysis pegged Eomer as a wolf. Bluff or double bluff? What a headache. It's probably better just to ignore this point.

Eomer says that Eomer says For my money, Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent. Their votes for Nessa were crucial.

He cannot be covering for a packmate here. If he's a wolf, he's being very reasonable as a cover. He also thinks that Pitch is probably innocent and that Inzil was trying to buddy up to him before. Again, this can't possibly be an act of covering for a packmate.

I think that if I were an innocent in Eomer's position, I would probably also have reached the conclusion of Shasta being the most suspicious.

As to his suspecting Shasta over me, I can only say it seems a very Eomerish thing.

This worries me a bit. At this point I do wish I had more recent info on the other players and was aware of what is usually in-character for them.

Shasta

He really hasn't posted much, and that's worrying. He made the first vote for Nessa, which I do not think does anything much to prove innocence. At the time, Nessa had not done anything hugely suspicious (although I think it was enough to base a vote on at a pinch).

So - on Day 1, Shasta says very little, and then votes Nessa. I think he had reasonable grounds for his vote, given the circumstances, but it could have been a vote for a packmate which he wasn't expecting anyone to follow up on seriously. Galadriel55 makes a point in her analysis that Shasta's vote changes the dynamics of the Day's voting and that there was no real need for him to keep away from the Kitanna-wagon. I'm not quite so sure about this. To me it looks as if that would have been a safe vote for a wolf.

But I see that Pitchwife doesn't seem to think so.

meaning if this was a wolf-on-wolf vote, he could not know Nessa would end up dead - although he had reason to expect Nerwen might vote her too (on the off chance of a Nerwen vote on D1), so it was risky as well as unnecessary, if not as risky as if he'd made the vote later.

(To be clear, I'm talking about the guy who won his last wolf game triumphantly over the corpses of his ruthlessly bussed packmates, so there's little in wolf-on-wolfing that I'd put beyond him.)

So Shasta is certainly capable of throwing his packmates shamelessly under a bus.

What bothers me most about Shasta is something Inzil said on Day 2.

"Shasta? Well, once again why vote for Nessawolf? Granted, as I said, Nessa's vote for Pitch looked pretty darned fishy, but still, it seems he could have found some other option to buy his mate another Day. "

Inzilis misleading there, making it sound as if Shasta voted for Nessa after she placed her suspicious vote, rather than before.

One thing that makes me think Pitch is more likely to be innocent is that he picked Inzil up on this.

"Shasta voted Nessa before she voted me. He was laconic enough about his reasons, but if I understand him right, he was going exclusively on the latching-on point mentioned by Nerwen."

But was Inzil trying to subtly deflect attention from a Shastawolf (in circumstances where someone might well notice) or was he trying to put suspicion onto an innocent? Or maybe he just made a mistake. Inzil knew he was going down at that point, whether yesterDay or toDay.

G55 mentioned that something Shasta said on Day 2 (about how a frustrated Seer-Kitanna might withhold an innocent's name) helped her a lot in her reasoning for voting Inzil. That reasoning also helped me out a lot. But, just because it's sensible doesn't mean he can't be a wolf.

I see Shasta's just made a post in which he's quite suspicious of me. I'll consider this after I've finished writing up what I meant to in this post.


Pitchwife

Not here on Day 1, of course, so nothing to learn from that.

If you're Radagast and they'd killed you, we'd most likely have lynched Kit toDay anyway, whereas this way, they gain a chance of getting you lynched and using toNight's kill on someone else. If the third wolf hadn't come under any suspicion worth mentioning yet, it would be a viable strategy.

This is true. However, this and a few other things do look a little suspicious, paired up with the vote for Kitanna. It's a reasonable conclusion to come to. In fact, Pitch's behaviour here strikes me as something a wolf would really want to avoid. It could be a situation of "A wolf wouldn't say something this suspicious, so I'll say it" but that in itself is very risky, and the sensible thing for a wolf to do that day, knowing that Inzil would be a known wolf by toDay at the latest, would be not to get too close to Inzil.

Saying that he had thought Inzil might be Radagast based on his Day 1 hinting makes some sense, and even known innocent Sally was taken in by that.

I think that was has persuaded me is that Pitch has not been behaving the way a sensible wolf might. Essentially, he's been behaving in a way that a wolf could easily have avoided. As I write this I'm feeling a little less sure of his innocence. At present I'm not planning to vote for him, but I'll check over other people's analysis and anything said since and think it over again.

Galadriel55

If she's a wolf, she's been playing a very calm game and has failed to make any mistakes. I think she's been under the least suspicion out of the non-known-innocents still in the game, which makes me worry a little bit just in case we've been played very well.

Her vote for Nessa was third and the final one needed. She could have been hoping that Eomer or Nerwen would vote for Kitanna and thus give Nessa a fighting chance. But Nerwen did have some mild suspicion of Nessa, and a wolf might reasonably have thought she would have voted for her, had she voted. In which case giving the final vote for Nessa would be a bright move which could reasonably insulate G55 against much suspicion for the rest of the game. Even so, that would be very risky and probably unnecessary. If G55 is a bold wolf, I think she's done very well. But I think that if she's innocent as I expect, her train of thought was logical in the circumstances.

Kitanna said that I can see G55-wolf steering votes toward a packmate, but I don't know if I can see it on Day 1.

Kitanna has presumably played with G55 before and would have an idea of this.

G55 indicated early on that she would vote Inzil unless something spectacular happened. Now, Inzil would have been caught anyway by toDay, so no wolf really gains from where they placed their vote yesterday, but her analysis was fairly persuasive and she might as well have placed her vote right then. Wolves would still have benefited heavily from the extra Day it would have taken to lynch Inzil, had we not believed Kitanna in the end.

At this point I still don't have any real suspicion of G55. Given that I think the wolf is likely in the other three, I'm going to continue assuming that G55 is innocent.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I will vote

++SHASTA

And I will also say, clearly risking accusations of 'buddying up', that Coppermirror's posts cannot be those of a first time player. I believe she may be a Downer of the past, returning under a new username. ;)

[Galadriel55]

G55, I seem to remember talking about Kit a bit on Day One (to defend her from Inzil); I talked about Nessa when she received votes and voted herself. Don't really understand this criticism; don't really understand why Pitch is so compelled by it.

And I said you barely mentioned them, not that you ignored them completely.

Having said that, I feel like I don't have much choice but to go with the self-preservation vote -

Did you write that especially for players to jump on it? I know that even when your eyes are blurring you would not make such a slip, if slip it is, and I understand exactly why an innocent could say that ("I know I'm innocent, I'm not sure about him"), but why to you have to tempt the radar to twitch? :p

If he's a wolf, it's impossible for him to be defending a Pitchwolf here. It is possible that he's a wolf defending a fellow Nessawolf and trying to discourage a third vote for her. He explains his reasoning later, and it makes decent sense.

Can you explain why he could not be defending a Pitchwolf? Do you mean he did not? Or that he would not theoretically do that? Or that the wolf he's defending is rather Nessa than Pitch? I just don't get the logic in this statement.

I don't think Pitch needed much defending at that point, since no one would follow Nessa's vote anyway.

So - on Day 1, Shasta says very little, and then votes Nessa. I think he had reasonable grounds for his vote, given the circumstances, but it could have been a vote for a packmate which he wasn't expecting anyone to follow up on seriously. Galadriel55 makes a point in her analysis that Shasta's vote changes the dynamics of the Day's voting and that there was no real need for him to keep away from the Kitanna-wagon. I'm not quite so sure about this. To me it looks as if that would have been a safe vote for a wolf.

I said that about his Day 2 vote. There was also a Kitwagon that Day, so it must have confused you. Shasta was the first to clearly favour Kit as the true Seer, after 3 votes for Zil.

G55 mentioned that something Shasta said on Day 2 (about how a frustrated Seer-Kitanna might withhold an innocent's name) helped her a lot in her reasoning for voting Inzil. That reasoning also helped me out a lot. But, just because it's sensible doesn't mean he can't be a wolf.

The last bit is completely true. May I just correct that Shasta's reasoning, while helpful, only made up about 1/5 of my decision?

And I will also say, clearly risking accusations of 'buddying up', that Coppermirror's posts cannot be those of a first time player. I believe she may be a Downer of the past, returning under a new username. ;)

Do you have anyone in particular in mind? ;) I do concur that Cop is playing exceptionally well for her first game.



I don't know why deciding who to vote in the last couple Days was so easy for me, but now it's back to normal, ie I have no idea.

[satansaloser2005]

DL is in ~30, correct?

[Galadriel55]

I think I shall be voting for Eomer in another 15 minutes. I don't want to put a third name into the tally, and between Shasta and Eomer the latter is more suspicious at the moment.

Let's see if the world can turn over in only about 15 minutes. :p

Edit: xed with sally - yay, I'm not alone! - yes, about 30 minutes.

[Coppermirror]

Re Shasta's suspicions of me:

Not much I can say to refute what Shasta thinks of as me trying too hard to act innocent. My intended strategy as an innocent in my first game has been to not worry too much about appearing innocent or suspicious, and to be fairly loud and try to say what I'm thinking. In part, hoping that lack of guile and polish will convey itself on its own while I'm concentrating on finding wolves. This may be why I'm coming over as acting too innocent to one or two of you. I could probably have been quieter and sounded less that way, but I believe I would be of less use to the village if I had.


#78 - analyzes Nessa's vote for Pitchwife and the wolf pack's kill of Nerwen. All decent reasoning as far as I can tell, except for the things that were already mentioned earlier in thread.

#79 - three paragraphs of defending Inzil for his "wolf-hooking" plan, and then this -

Which is not to say that Inzil isn't still suspicious.

Bit of a turnaround there, I think.

Yes, I was definitely kicking myself after that post. I had intended to continue on with my reasons for finding Inzil suspicious, and had started writing them, but I was getting very tired and my reasoning was becoming messy. So I decided to delete that part of the post and post again in the morning. Little did I know that the next post would be Kitanna coming out with a Seer declaration about Inzilwolf. I was surprised that nobody thought that looked suspicious until now.

#119 - As I read this post, I'm slowly realizing that I'm stating a lot of what Kitanna already said, and that you've already answered. :rolleyes:

Especially about the Nessa-vote. I see you've answered that. It appears you had a fine reason to vote for Nessa the whole time... so why not just say that from the beginning? Now there's no proof that you didn't think up the entire thing after the fact. :(

You mean, say that during voting time on Day 1? A couple of reasons. For one, I didn't have time. You placed your vote for Nessa at 12:31 PM GMT. Nessa placed her vote for Pitchwife at 12:43 PM GMT. I had only 12 minutes in which to consider the plan to vote for Nessa to create a tie.

Another reason is that although you clearly think my reason to vote for Nessa prior to her Pitch vote was a perfectly good reason, I thought my reason was terrible. Like I mentioned in post #119, it was not a vote based upon actual suspicion. Putting in a vote that wasn't based on actual suspicion was exactly what I hadn't wanted to do. I was reluctant to do it.

I'm a bit puzzled about this:

#55 - votes for Nessa. Reasons given - won't vote for Pitch as he's likely to be modfired, and this;

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

ShastaNotes - Hm. In hindsight, obviously, the fact that Nessa ended up a wolf makes this vote look better. At the time, though, Kit had two votes and (assuming, obviously, Inzilwolf and Sallyordo) the third wolf yet to vote, so this could be a wolf-on-wolf vote. I say this because Cop's reasons for her vote aren't actually that great, considering basically anything anyone says at any time could be "cover for a wolf". (emphasis added)

You're saying that my initial reason for voting for Nessa (not actually suspecting her, but wanting to create a tie and see what happened) was a "fine reason to vote", but voting for Nessa based on her suspicious vote for Pitch was a bad reason? The only other reading is that you're saying Nessa's behaviour in latching on to suspicion of Sally would be a bad reason to vote for her. Which is exactly what you did when you voted...

It looks as if you are placing emphasis on what I said after I mentioned the basis for my vote. I find it a bit suspicious, especially since, had the latter bit been my reason (which it wasn't), it would have been on the same grounds as your vote. On the other hand, Seer-Kitanna seemed to have the same impression of my voting reasons, and of course she was innocent.

This is the full version of what I said, with emphasis added. My reasons: I don't believe that a vote for Pitchwife is a useful vote at the moment, as I think he won't show up and will get mod-fired anyway. I thought of voting for him earlier, but working through it in my previous post persuaded me that it wasn't a good idea. I may be wrong, but that's the basis for my vote.

As well as that, Nessa was involved in that speculation earlier. I don't really get what was going on, but it could have been used as cover for a wolf.

In a post not long before, I'd concluded that a vote for Pitch was a useless vote that wouldn't help the village. It's natural that anyone who came along voting for him would look suspicious to me and would instantly get my vote.


#127 - after another long theoretical analysis, votes Inzil. This turned out to be the correct vote, but I don't like this -

Honestly I find both our possible Seers very suspicious. I don't feel comfortable being the person to bring Kitanna to 4 votes out of 8, ensuring either a Kitanna lynch or a tie (which would be decided randomly). My gut tells me Kitanna, and my head tells me Inzil, and I don't know which to go with. By now I've spent about 5 hours looking at this, and I'm none the wiser, but much more tired and out of patience. So I'm going to cop out on this and leave it up to the three other people who have yet to vote. We'll know soon enough who's telling the truth, I suppose, even if the circumstances aren't ideal. I may or may not be back before the deadline.

This makes it look like you were setting yourself up to have been suspicious of both Inzil and Kitanna... if you were a wolf, you'd know who was lying and who was telling the truth, and... I'm not actually sure what that means in regards to your wolfishness or innocence. I'm tired. But something tells me it's important, so I'm leaving it here.

Oh dear, you're trying to read a lot into that. What I said there was exactly what I was thinking. At the time I voted, I wasn't sure which out of Kit and Inzil was the real wolf, and I was tired out and not making progress. So I gave up and voted Inzil because otherwise there would be no option but a tie. Later on that Day, in retrospect, I became more confident about my vote. You can see that in my later comments.

[satansaloser2005]

Mayhaps I could get a vote count? That would be superb.

[Coppermirror]

I'm intending to vote for Eomer. If he's not a wolf, I will vote for Shasta the next Day.

G55, you asked me a few things before. I'll answer that toDay if I have the time, and toMorrow if I don't.

But sorry, Eomer and G55, I'm 100% newbie. Flattered that you think I'm not, though. I've just read a loooot of old games. It's interesting how different it is to play than it is to read.

[Coppermirror]

Mayhaps I could get a vote count? That would be superb.

Pitchwife voted Eomer.
Eomer voted Shasta.
Shasta voted Eomer.

[Coppermirror]

Can you explain why he could not be defending a Pitchwolf? Do you mean he did not? Or that he would not theoretically do that? Or that the wolf he's defending is rather Nessa than Pitch? I just don't get the logic in this statement.

He couldn't have been defending a Pitchwolf because there were only three wolves in the game. Now we know two of them, I've been finding it useful for eliminating possible motivations. I'll look at your post more overNight, sorry for not going over it properly right now but it is coming up to voting time and I'm rushed.

Anyway...I would have liked to hear what Sally has to say about who she currently suspects before I place my vote, but I think I need to vote now, so I will.

++Eomer

I also suspect Shasta pretty strongly, mostly because of what might have been an attempt from Inzil to protect him, so I plan to vote for him next time if Eomer isn't a wolf.

[Galadriel55]

I see the world hasn't turned over yet.

++Eomerwarg




I said warg, but I hope wolf.


Edit: xed with Cop's vote.

[Galadriel55]

He couldn't have been defending a Pitchwolf because there were only three wolves in the game. Now we know two of them, I've been finding it useful for eliminating possible motivations. I'll look at your post more overNight, sorry for not going over it properly right now but it is coming up to voting time and I'm rushed.

Ah, so it's like he was protecting Nessa, therefore not Pitch. Gotcha.

[satansaloser2005]

I feel like a wolf!Shasta would be much more frustrated by his pack's circumstances so far.

[B]++Eomer]/b[

Sorry. No time.

[Coppermirror]

Let's hope we'll get 3 wolves in a row. :smokin:

[Galadriel55]

Let's hope we'll get 3 wolves in a row. :smokin:

If we did it would be my best game ever. :cool:

[Meneltarmacil]

A large mob of townsfolk entered the tavern. Eomer greeted them warmly and asked if they wanted anything to drink.

"Don't play the innocent game with us," said Coppermirror.

Eomer's expression turned to one of confusion. "Innocent game? What is going on? I'm not a wolf, you know that. And haven't I seen you somewhere else, Coppermirror?"

At that moment, the villagers seized Eomer and hauled him off to the gallows.

"Stop!" he protested. "You're making a terrible mistake!"

"It is you who made the mistake of messing with our town," responded Pitchwife as the noose was placed around Eomer's neck.

"Wait! Wait!" cried Eomer desperately. "If you kill me, you'll all run out of beer!"

The mob was momentarily taken aback. They glanced around nervously at the prospect of losing their alcohol supply. Within a few seconds, though, Shasta declared "Enough already!" and released the trapdoor. There was, however, no transformation when Eomer's neck snapped.

"Oh no..."

"He wasn't..."

It was true. The villagers had killed one of their own.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2
Inziladun (Werewolf): Killed in pie fight with villagers on Day 2
Kitanna (Radagast): Neck snapped by wolf on Night 3
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 3

Night 4 begins. I need a name from the Wolf.

[Meneltarmacil]

Upon waking, the villagers realized that Galadriel55 was no longer among them.

They went to her house to figure out what had happened, but once there, a ghastly sight awaited them.

G55's skeleton and various remains were strewn all over the floor, while her skin had been stretched out and hung on the wall amongst her tapestries. On it, the outline of a white hand had been crudely drawn in blood.

The villagers took down the loathsome trophy and set to burying the body.
--------------------------------------------------------

The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2
Inziladun (Werewolf): Killed in pie fight with villagers on Day 2
Kitanna (Radagast): Neck snapped by wolf on Night 3
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 3
Galadriel55 (Ordinary Villager): Skinned by wolf on Night 4

Day 4 has dawned.

[Coppermirror]

So G55 was taken instead of Sally. This is very interesting indeed, and quite a surprise.

Why her?...Pretty much everyone trusted her. She wasn't quite at the point of being a known innocent like Sally, but there was no realistic chance that anyone would vote for her. I suppose she might as well have been a known innocent, if you think of it that way. In which case....

There must be some advantage to the wolf of killing her. Sally, the wolf may believe that you will be easier to persuade than G55 that they're innocent and one of the rest of us is not. Either that, or they are doing this just to confuse us. G55 was around a fair amount yesterDay and did what I thought was quite good analysis. Perhaps there's a chance she struck upon a damaging point for the wolf.

I know I said yesterday that I would vote Shasta. However, I thought about this overNight and decided to do an analysis of Pitchwolf today too, just in case I find anything. There's one point I suspect Shasta on that's bothering me a bit and which I want to look over again in case it's a trick against him. At present, before going through my analysis, I do still find Shasta the most suspicious and the one I'm most likely to vote for. But the Day is long. And really, after such a puzzling move from the wolf, I feel quite motivated to track them down and not allow luck to enter into the equation.

Let's see...out of the known innocents from yesterDay, Eomer thought that Shasta was most suspicious, but G55, if I remember right, thought Eomer and Pitch were the most suspicious. And I thought Eomer and Shasta were. Can't remember what Sally thought.

ToDay is the last Day. If we fail toDay, the village loses without a doubt.

Worst case scenario:
ToDay: 3 villagers, 1 wolf.
We lynch an innocent villager. 2 villagers, 1 wolf.
ToNight: The wolf kills an innocent villager. Village loses.

Yes, that's got to be correct. Therefore...I must assume that the move of taking out G55 is to the wolf's advantage in some way. Even a very small way. My first thought was that G55 might have been got rid of because she was very unlikely to vote for me (and me for her). However, the more I think of that the more I think that can't be it. Because a hypothetical wolf-me would have to be a complete idiot to get rid of someone who would be so unlikely to vote against me.

Eomer, I'm sorry we made a mistake lynching you yesterDay! I'll do my best to look for the wolf. Although I'm beginning to think they're a trickier customer than expected.

Sally, can you think of any reason why the wolf would want to keep you alive rather than G55? (Although there's a possibility G55 was killed because of her own actions.)

[Coppermirror]

I wonder if this is the action of a Pitchwolf?

I need to check the past Day to be sure, but I believe G55 was most suspicious of Eomer-innocent and Pitch.

YesterDay I said that I would definitely vote Shasta toDay. Sally yesterday did at least consider the possibility of a Shastawolf earlier on, too. A Pitchwolf could have been trying to get rid of the person with the most serious suspicions of him.

Or it could be a Shastawolf trying to pull off a double bluff and give us a headache. Aargh.

I'm going to sleep on this, and come back in the morning to get analysing and checking over the previous Day.

[Pitchwife]

That was clever, whoever did it.

I know I said yesterday that I would vote Shasta. However, I thought about this overNight and decided to do an analysis of Pitchwolf today too, just in case I find anything.
Don't give me that name unless you have reasons to back it up, or it might look like the outcome of your analysis is a foregone conclusion.

Let's see...out of the known innocents from yesterDay, Eomer thought that Shasta was most suspicious, but G55, if I remember right, thought Eomer and Pitch were the most suspicious.
Hmm. She suspected me a lot on Day 2, but came to see me as more and more innocent yesterDay.
Can't remember what Sally thought.
Actually, all she said about her suspicions yesterDay was:
I feel like a wolf!Shasta would be much more frustrated by his pack's circumstances so far.

I wonder if this is the action of a Pitchwolf?
Heh. I was a lone wolf facing Sally in endgame once, and it didn't go well. She usually is a pretty good Pitchwolf-spotter. [/buttering up]
On the other hand, the fact that we both fell for Zil's fake reveal might make her inclined to be more lenient towards me than others would. Or not.

Or it could be a Shastawolf trying to pull off a double bluff and give us a headache. Aargh.
That too. I could see Shasta thinking Sally might be "easier to persuade", as you put it.

Or then, you know, maybe this is the action of a wolf who hasn't yet made up her mind whether to frame Shasta or me and wants to keep both options open.

[satansaloser2005]

Wait, what?

[satansaloser2005]

Sally, can you think of any reason why the wolf would want to keep you alive rather than G55? (Although there's a possibility G55 was killed because of her own actions.)

Insanity? Suicide? Shenanigans? No idea, but whatever the case, there is still one known innocent among us (hello, all), which means we have a ridiculously decent chance of catching a wolf toDay. Also, I'm still alive, so whatever the reason, I'm pleased.


Preface: Shasta, I love you, babe.

Shasta gets upset when his pack is demolished, especially in short order. I know this. YesterDay he showed no signs of being a wolfy wolf boy, at least a really frustrated wolfy wolf boy. When he was up for lynch yesterDay, he did vote to save himself, but he didn't do anything....rash isn't the correct word, but I've had a sleep-depriving few days, so I'll use it anyway, lest I use something even more rude by mistake. The point is that he handled yesterDay really rather well, which, given his recent trend to not handle lynchings well, led me to think yesterDay that he is probably innocent.

That said, he has had a wolf victory in the recent past, which easily could have tempered that losing streak rage that I know very well he has been feeling of late. So if that has inclined him to be less bitter about his pack being taken away from him, I could see him handling yesterDay's situation quite well despite the circumstances. Also, Shasta is a fabulous lone wolf, and may in fact flourish in this adversity, especially since his packmates were struck down so quickly. Shasta Alwolfduin would not hesitate to vote a packmate if it meant the good of the pack. Thus, analyzing his vote record is rather pointless, especially given the craziness of Kitagast and Wolfiladun. He once cast the killing blow against me when we were in a pack together, and then went on to win the game due in large part to that action. Put nothing past him. He is a tricksy, wild little psychic flaming wolf boy, and he is capable of anything.

In short, he's not acting like a cornered Shastawolf would normally act, but normality has changed recently, so that may in fact mean nothing. I need to think more.

I'm going to go look at some posts now, but bear with me, as I could still use some more sleep and may crawl (literally) back into bed at some point during my endeavors.

[Pitchwife]

In short, he's not acting like a cornered Shastawolf would normally act, but normality has changed recently, so that may in fact mean nothing. I need to think more.

In addition to his recent victory, I think having got rid of Kitannagast would make a difference. The Shastawolf I've played with, both as packmate and on the village side, hates and fears revealed seers, because no matter how well he plays, they can always dream and out him. Knowing that Kit hadn't dreamed him and he could kill her next Night, and being confident of his abilities as a lone wolf could explain his relaxed attitude.

That's not saying we should rule Cop out. Whether or not she's really new to the Downs (see Eomer's speculation yesterDay), she's clearly not new to the game as per her posting, so I'm not giving her passes anymore because "a first-timer wouldn't have done that".

[Pitchwife]

Argn. I have that nagging paranoia in me that Cop is secretly a very cunning wolf about to sail through and make it (when I read her first post(s) toDay I thought I saw a wolf explaining her choice of kill), but every time I think I find something wolvish in her posts, it dissolves under closer inspection.

So I sought enlightenment in Shasta's analysis of her and would like to comment a few points.
In hindsight, obviously, the fact that Nessa ended up a wolf makes this vote look better. At the time, though, Kit had two votes and (assuming, obviously, Inzilwolf and Sallyordo) the third wolf yet to vote, so this could be a wolf-on-wolf vote.
But not, of course, if the third wolf had already voted (just saying); also, why "assuming" Inzilwolf and Sallyordo, when we now know that to be their roles? What you're really assuming here (or want us to assume) is your own innocence, on which the argument depends.

Originally Posted by Cop
Honestly I find both our possible Seers very suspicious. I don't feel comfortable being the person to bring Kitanna to 4 votes out of 8, ensuring either a Kitanna lynch or a tie (which would be decided randomly). My gut tells me Kitanna, and my head tells me Inzil, and I don't know which to go with. By now I've spent about 5 hours looking at this, and I'm none the wiser, but much more tired and out of patience. So I'm going to cop out on this and leave it up to the three other people who have yet to vote. We'll know soon enough who's telling the truth, I suppose, even if the circumstances aren't ideal. I may or may not be back before the deadline.
This makes it look like you were setting yourself up to have been suspicious of both Inzil and Kitanna... if you were a wolf, you'd know who was lying and who was telling the truth, and... I'm not actually sure what that means in regards to your wolfishness or innocence. I'm tired. But something tells me it's important, so I'm leaving it here.
Hm, if she were a wolf and knew Zil was lying, she would of course set herself up to have been suspicious of him, but why of Kit, who would be revealed to be innocent? She might voice some doubt, so it wouldn't seem she knew too much with hindsight, but focus on suspecting Zil, I think, not wade through all those arguments for or against either side, like she's done. And honestly, Shasta, your last words here sound a bit like, "Hm, I can't really spin this into anything incriminating, but something always sticks."

What stuck out to me in this quote was the phrasing "I don't feel comfortable", which sounds like she's very concerned with how her vote will be viewed by others, and with not raising suspicion against herself. I also notice that every Day up to now, she voted for the player who would end up lynched. I don't know why, but somehow I find that creepy. (Which is a feeling, not an argument.)

The rest of the points Shasta brings against her are pretty much could-bes (or could-be-nots. So yes, I'd say his analysis is a wee bit biased, but I've seen far worse ones (in term of bias, not quality) from a Shastawolf, and his reflection on the matter in his voting post does sound innocent (whether naturally or studiously so, I've no idea).

Which doesn't bring us very much further, I'm afraid. :(

By the way, I suppose you've all figured out that I'll have to vote first again, and that I'll vote for either Cop or Shasta; also that if I screw up and vote the unknown ordo, the wolf can pile on it. That in mind, is anybody around to talk? I don't have all night.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You guys are going to make my head swell up like a balloon. :rolleyes:

But in any case, why is Sally not dead? Love you, dear, but having a known innocent alive at endgame just... I don't know. I suppose G55 might have been just as good, as no one ever seriously suspected her... but still, a Seer-dreamt innocent means there's no chance Sally will be lynched, whereas there was always the tiny chance G55 could have been framed today.

I'm going to have to go back and read more, but given Cop's fixation on voting me today should Eomer turn out innocent, and the fact that she's still alive today, almost makes me think we have a Pitchwolf. But I can't say that with any surety, as I haven't looked at him at all yet. That was just my first reaction.

In addition, Cop responded to some of my points against her yesterday by simple acknowledgement ("Yeah, I did that, so what?") which is something I'm never comfortable with.

Hmm.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

But not, of course, if the third wolf had already voted (just saying); also, why "assuming" Inzilwolf and Sallyordo, when we now know that to be their roles? What you're really assuming here (or want us to assume) is your own innocence, on which the argument depends.

Of course it does. I know I'm innocent, so to me, it's a solid argument.

And honestly, Shasta, your last words here sound a bit like, "Hm, I can't really spin this into anything incriminating, but something always sticks."

...Or I'd stayed up till the dawn and lost my train of thought due to being exhausted. If I'd thought it was no longer important or relevant, I wouldn't have posted it. You're reaching a bit here.

In any case, I'm having to run out the door now. I should be back in a few hours.

[Pitchwife]

I'm going to have to go back and read more, but given Cop's fixation on voting me today should Eomer turn out innocent, and the fact that she's still alive today, almost makes me think we have a Pitchwolf.
Forgive me for saying so myself (and maybe shrinking your head a couple of inches in the process), but this is crappy reasoning. Didn't you just say yourself that if not Gal55, Sally would have been the sensible kill-choice? Do you seriously want me (or anybody else) to think that you as a wolf would have killed Cop, leaving two known innocents alive? For if not, the fact that she wasn't killed toNight doesn't prove zip.
But I can't say that with any surety, as I haven't looked at him at all yet.
Yes, I've noticed that and wondered about it, because I fully expected to be torn to shreds for my support of Zil; it was rather unlike you to let that pass, but I suppose it was due to time constraints and not because you didn't yet know whether you'd need me as ally or lynchmeat.:Merisu:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Back momentarily -

Do you seriously want me (or anybody else) to think that you as a wolf would have killed Cop, leaving two known innocents alive? For if not, the fact that she wasn't killed toNight doesn't prove zip.

Uh. No? I don't believe I said anything like that. What I meant was, my first reaction was that having Cop alive, with her stated intention to vote me today, would be a lovely situation for a Pitchwolf to be in toDay.

[Pitchwife]

Of course it does. I know I'm innocent, so to me, it's a solid argument.
Sure. What I was bothered by was your use of the word "assuming" in a context where we don't need to assume anything because we know, but that's another Freudian interpretation which you'll probably call a stretch (and maybe rightly, I don't know).

...Or I'd stayed up till the dawn and lost my train of thought due to being exhausted. If I'd thought it was no longer important or relevant, I wouldn't have posted it. You're reaching a bit here.
Fair point.

[Pitchwife]

Uh. No? I don't believe I said anything like that. What I meant was, my first reaction was that having Cop alive, with her stated intention to vote me today, would be a lovely situation for a Pitchwolf to be in toDay.
OK, if you put it like that, of course it would; except she's getting Pitchwolf-paranoia too now and may well change her mind.
(Actually, now you mention it, I predict that whoever I end up voting will convince the other ordos that I'm the wolf -> instant wolf victory. Wouldn't that be fun?)

Anyone else around?

[Pitchwife]

OK, I don't want to stay up till dawn and lose train of my thoughts either, so far I can sympathize with Shasta. I briefly considered being a dadaist and voting Sally or myself, but not seriously, as both would be stupid.

Nargl. I don't know whether Cop is capable of bussing two packmates, I know Shasta is. But who did it? We don't know, my preciousss, we don't know.

But we think we've just found something, my precious:
My first thought was that G55 might have been got rid of because she was very unlikely to vote for me (and me for her). However, the more I think of that the more I think that can't be it. Because a hypothetical wolf-me would have to be a complete idiot to get rid of someone who would be so unlikely to vote against me.
But you aren't a wolf, are you? So you couldn't have killed her anyway, and whether or not you would have been daft to do so has nothing at all to do with the price of milk, right? Except if you are a wolf and did kill her because we'd never think you did (but gave yourself away here).

And then there's this:
YesterDay I said that I would definitely vote Shasta toDay. Sally yesterday did at least consider the possibility of a Shastawolf earlier on, too.
And I voiced more suspicion of Shasta than of you yesterDay, making it clear that my choice who to vote was between Eomer and Shasta. So we end up toDay with Cop, Shasta and the two players Cop considers most likely to vote Shasta. Isn't that an amazing coincidence?

You know what, I think
++Coppermirror

Shasta, if it's you, kudos. Cop, if I'm right, kudos too.

Á vala Manwë.

[satansaloser2005]

Back for a short time, and will look around a bit after I've finally attended to blankity-blank Arda Cup stuff. I slept much longer than I intended. Ugh....

Shasta, if it's you, kudos. Cop, if I'm right, kudos too.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if it was me? :smokin:

[satansaloser2005]

Oh my cupcakes. I was reading through the thread trying to get a bead on Pitch when I saw this post. And then I realized....

Pitch and I really need to stop agreeing. And yes, I'm using the word creepy again, 'cause it's getting to those levels.

Have I been tricked by Mr. Wolfgreeable all this time? :eek:

[Coppermirror]

Back now! I'll skim through the posts and then go through them properly and have some analysis.

Don't give me that name unless you have reasons to back it up, or it might look like the outcome of your analysis is a foregone conclusion.

Ah, I've been calling you each Pitchwolf and Shasta Shastawolf while wondering which of you it is and considering hypothetically the actions of each as a wolf. Until we see who it is at the end of the Day, nothing's certain. Nothing in particular was meant by saying that with your name earlier. I'll bear in mind that care should be taken over it.

*looks at thread*

Wait a sec here.

Pitch just voted me.

Y'know, I had been thinking that the wolf would go for me all-out today in order to prevent there being 50-50 odds against them. But I thought that the wolf was probably Shasta....But Pitch, who just yesterday thought that I was probably innocent based on my posting record? What a pain. I'm going to have to look through all this very carefully and see whether you have any logic to back that up.

Pitch, if you're the wolf, you are taking a huge risk. Shasta suspected me a bit yesterday and said he didn't want to give a throwaway vote for me. Are you a wolf relying on his vote?

And if Shasta is the wolf, all he needs to do now is vote for me, giving himself minimum 50-50 odds of victory.

This thread is quite a headache. Oh well, time to analyse it.

[satansaloser2005]

Obviously I am holding my vote in reserve until the morning. I still can't decide, mostly because I suspect each of you at least enough to not remove you from my vote list. A few (and I do mean a few) points on each of the remaining players follows.

Shasta

Voted for Nessa Day One: I do not consider that the mark of an innocent Shasta, nor necessarily of a bussing Shasta. That said, he was the first vote for Nessa. That said, Day 1 was a bit of a wreck for a lot of us (the lynch result notwithstanding), so he could have been trying to distance himself from a mate or he could have been genuinely suspicious of her. Really, this doesn't do anything for me either way.
His jab at Dun here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=673135&postcount=30)feels to me like a Wolfsicle playing ball with his mate. "That's not how the game is supposed to be played" strikes me as an in-joke between wolves. Of course his comment about me voting an absent Eomer seems enough like an innocent thing for him to say, so....again, I don't know.
His comment to me in #112 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=673280&postcount=112) seems genuine, but then he so often does, so....then his following post (#113, because that's how numbers work) makes a very good point about the Kitagast that I hadn't thought of during my first consideration of the topic. Mind, I had already voted, but that was a very good point of him to make, and one I don't think a Shasta!wolf would have made so readily.
Now his #131 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=673313&postcount=131)....that's an interesting one. He says, flat out, that tying the vote would be silly. If the tie had flopped to Kit, he could have come under suspicion, so I could see my sweet monstrel sacrificing DunDunDun for the sake of looking better upon the Morrow. It's the only possible smart maneuver for a wolf at that stage. (Do note that he says later that he never seriously considered tying the vote, so make of that what you will.)
In his #165 he actually replies to me asking him to tell me he's not a wolf. I....am not entirely sure an innocent Shasta would bother to reply to that statement.
He makes good points against Cop here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=673407&postcount=171) but then votes for Eomer in what he admits is self-preservation. I won't hold the will the live against him, especially since he was correct in saying that voting for Cop at that stage would be rather useless.
His commentary on me at #197 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=673474&postcount=197) rings true; I should be dead, and I know that. Leaving me alive, however, would be beneficial to Shasta, given that I'd shown trust in him previously.


Pitch

Of course we're familiar with #73, in which he (following Wolfiladun of all people) speculates that Fenrissa Telrunya may have voted him to make him look more innocent in the coming Days. I didn't think much of it until I realized that he was talking about one of the wolves and having that discussion with another.
Oh, #83 and #84 looks like a potential wolf fishing to me. He instantly believed Kit (a wolf would know for sure, whereas an innocent would doubt) and immediately asked her for her other dream. That? That's a mark against right there. He then quickly flips to believing Dun (though I did much the same) and plays the "which way do I go?" game for a bit before finally siding with, you guessed it, the wolf. The entire way he handled that Day's reveals seems off to me; sure, I wanted Kit's dream too, but as long as she provided it before she died, she could still be a help to us. She was being rather curmudgeonly about the situation, but Pitch was pushing her right from the start. (That reminds me. I need to apologize to Kit later on....)
My #106 should have been my red flag for the rest of the game. I continuously find myself agreeing with Pitch, which is often how I relate to a Wolfwife.
You'll see here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=673382&postcount=152)that Pitch makes the same point about Gal (knowing Kit was genuine because of her own role) that I make about him above. Interesting, that.
"That was clever, whoever did it." (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=673464&postcount=192) This entire post (strangely, with the exception of the part where he butters me up :p) looks suspect to me, though if he's not a wolf, I agree with him about how Cop seems to be trying to frame either Shasta or- Pitch, stop being so agreeable, you jerk! :rolleyes:
In regards to #195, I need only say one thing: You're right. We shouldn't rule out Cop. Nor should I rule out you.
The start of his last vote post (and it will be his last, regardless) is not remotely funny at this stage of the game. I am actually waiting for the wolf to somehow manage to get me lynched, because I'm still not sure why I'm alive. He makes a fairly decent point about the convenience of who's left, except he's wrong (at least based on the information Cop would have had last Night): I had said I didn't want to vote Shasta.


Cop(out?)

I have no basis for her playing style or behavior as a wolf, but what I have seen (opportunism, possible slips, some interactions with Dun that I find fishy) makes me think she is a very clever, very quick wolf cub.
Not killing me would benefit her greatly, as it would seem too obvious a cub mistake to actually be a cub mistake. Of the three remaining, I think she could most easily profit from my existence; I've largely ignored her, which means I could probably be (to her) swayed to vote someone else if I just kept doing so. Depending on which games she's read on here, she would know that I don't perform too well at endgame, and that my performance in general has been slipping of late (a tendency I am certainly not proud of), so I could see her trying to capitalize on that for her own gains in hopes that I would suspect Shasta or Pitch on this last Day.



So at the end of this, I am left with one solid conclusion. I was right before.

You're all guilty. Let's move on.

Menel, you would be just crazy enough to do that....

[satansaloser2005]

I am going to bed now. With any luck, I'll wake up in time to vote the wolf.

[Coppermirror]

Cop(out?)

I have no basis for her playing style or behavior as a wolf, but what I have seen (opportunism, possible slips, some interactions with Dun that I find fishy) makes me think she is a very clever, very quick wolf cub.
Not killing me would benefit her greatly, as it would seem too obvious a cub mistake to actually be a cub mistake. Of the three remaining, I think she could most easily profit from my existence; I've largely ignored her, which means I could probably be (to her) swayed to vote someone else if I just kept doing so. Depending on which games she's read on here, she would know that I don't perform too well at endgame, and that my performance in general has been slipping of late (a tendency I am certainly not proud of), so I could see her trying to capitalize on that for her own gains in hopes that I would suspect Shasta or Pitch on this last Day.


If you check the admin thread for this game, you'll see that I said (well in advance of roles being handed out, BTW) that I am reading the games at the Downs in chronological order. I think that earlier in the game thread here I mentioned which point I'm currently at, which is early 2006. The only players I knew anything about the playing style of outside this current game were Kitanna and Eomer, which means even my info on their playing style was 6 years out of date.

Accordingly, I have not actually read any of the games where you, Shasta or Pitch have played. I have no idea how each of you plays, outside what you tell me yourselves. So I'm pretty worried to hear that you often don't perform well at endgame...but it might explain why the wolf decided to get rid of G55 instead.

I don't see your logic for how not killing you would benefit me greatly. If I had been a wolf, I would certainly not have killed G55. Why would I kill someone who was extremely unlikely to vote for me, in order to try to persuade you, who I know next to nothing about and have hardly spoken to in this game, not to vote for me? Makes no sense. Nay, Sally, your suggestion that a hypothetical wolf-me would do such a thing, where there would be no gain in it for me, is a grievous insult.

Well, I'll get back to looking through the thread and finding out which of the other two it is. What a pain.

[Coppermirror]

Why did the wolf choose G55 last Night?

Pitch or Shasta

There is no way that the wolf would have killed whichever out of Pitch or Shasta is innocent. G55 and I were reasonably sure of each other's innocence and would without a doubt have voted for the one remaining. At very best, they could have tried persuading Sally into making the vote a tie. Not sensible.

Me

There is absolutely no way any wolf with half a brain would have killed me last Night. The wolf's best strategy would be to increase the number of genuine suspects from 2 to 3. That means going after either me or G55, and nobody had any real suspicions of G55.

Of particular note yesterDay:
- Shasta wrote only one analysis yesterDay, and that was of me, and could have implied that he would like to have voted for me but thought it would be wasted.
- Pitch went through all of the candidates. He decided I was probably innocent based on my vote patterns, chalking up the wording he found suspicious to newbieness.

This means that, potentially, the Pitchwolf/Shastawolf could have thought there's a good chance of (a) persuading the innocent Pitch/Shasta, or (b) could have thought that there's enough of a possibility of the other one suspecting me that they could use the confusion to their benefit.

However, realistically, they would have had much less of a chance to pull that off if G55, who did not suspect me seriously, was around.

If it's Shasta, the move of getting rid of G55 has worked perfectly. If it's Pitch, I'm not so sure.

YesterDay, Pitch suspected Eomer-innocent and Shasta. For him to suddenly switch to me as his target to the extent of voting for me, he should surely have some reasoning for this. Therefore, if I examine his reasoning carefully, I should have a chance of determining whether he's an innocent who has been struck by paranoia and a Shastawolf's plan, or a Pitchwolf who either got scared after seeing in my first post this Day that I hadn't totally ruled him out, or more likely had decided to pretend to change his opinion over the course of the Day to capitalise on Shasta's possible suspicion of me yesterDay. Not sure how Sally would fit into that.

So...let's look at what would have happened toDay if Sally had been the one killed, compared to what really happened.

Probable situation if Sally had been killed:
One near-guaranteed vote Shasta from me.
A probable Shasta vote from Pitchwife
A probable Pitchwife vote from Shasta?
An vote for either Shasta or Pitch from G55 (who yesterDay found Pitch the more suspicious of the two).

If we have a Shastawolf, the situation is very bad for him, because there's still a possibility that G55 will vote for him, even if she didn't suspect him so much yesterDay. At the very best for him, it would be a tie with 50-50 odds.

If it's a Pitchwolf, the situation is slightly better, but still not great. The worst situation for him is a tie. But G55 was suspicious of him, and she might have been able to persuade me of that too.

Neither of those situations is particularly good for the wolf. I'm inclined to think that a Shasta-wolf has the most to gain statistically from killing G55 and shaking the village up. Hmm. I've still got less info out of this analysis than I'd hoped. Now, onto an overall analysis of Shasta and Pitch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sure. What I was bothered by was your use of the word "assuming" in a context where we don't need to assume anything because we know
You're leaving out my use of the word "obviously", so yes, this is a stretch. However, I feel like this is just turning into an unneeded grammar lesson.

So we end up toDay with Cop, Shasta and the two players Cop considers most likely to vote Shasta. Isn't that an amazing coincidence?
So you're saying a Copwolf considered Sally more likely than G55 to vote for me? I'll have to go back and look at that.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if it was me?
Well, it would certainly explain the stench. :Merisu:

His jab at Dun here feels to me like a Wolfsicle playing ball with his mate. "That's not how the game is supposed to be played" strikes me as an in-joke between wolves.
I said that in reference to me saying "I could vote you because I don't like you" in reference to Inzil saying "I could vote for Shasta for... being Shasta." It's pretty well documented that Inzil and I tend to have a cordial, but acrimonious relationship when playing WW. :p

Now his #131....that's an interesting one. He says, flat out, that tying the vote would be silly.
And it would have been silly. If you're going to use that remark as a reason to suspect me, then you've got to go all the way with it -
I briefly considered being a dadaist and voting Sally or myself, but not seriously, as both would be stupid.
:rolleyes:

In his #165 he actually replies to me asking him to tell me he's not a wolf. I....am not entirely sure an innocent Shasta would bother to reply to that statement.
I always think you're important enough to respond to, dearie. *winks*

The start of his last vote post (and it will be his last, regardless) is not remotely funny at this stage of the game. I am actually waiting for the wolf to somehow manage to get me lynched, because I'm still not sure why I'm alive. He makes a fairly decent point about the convenience of who's left, except he's wrong (at least based on the information Cop would have had last Night): I had said I didn't want to vote Shasta.
This goes back to what I said about Pitch above.

I don't see your logic for how not killing you would benefit me greatly. If I had been a wolf, I would certainly not have killed G55. Why would I kill someone who was extremely unlikely to vote for me, in order to try to persuade you, who I know next to nothing about and have hardly spoken to in this game, not to vote for me? Makes no sense. Nay, Sally, your suggestion that a hypothetical wolf-me would do such a thing, where there would be no gain in it for me, is a grievous insult.
The thing about defenses like this is that they are, while very well written, ultimately meaningless. You can say "as a wolf, I would have/would not have done X", but there's no way for the rest of us to know that. Even moreso since this is your first game with us, which means we've never seen you work as a wolf.

There is no way that the wolf would have killed whichever out of Pitch or Shasta is innocent. G55 and I were reasonably sure of each other's innocence and would without a doubt have voted for the one remaining. At very best, they could have tried persuading Sally into making the vote a tie. Not sensible.

I don't not buy this, necessarily, but I think you're being far too general with your "without a doubt". Unless you're the Seer (you're not), it's never wise to be 100% sure about anyone's innocence or guilt.

There is absolutely no way any wolf with half a brain would have killed me last Night. The wolf's best strategy would be to increase the number of genuine suspects from 2 to 3. That means going after either me or G55, and nobody had any real suspicions of G55.
No it doesn't. If the wolf's best strategy is to increase the number of suspects from two to three, then that means going after Sally, the known innocent player.

Shasta wrote only one analysis yesterDay, and that was of me, and could have implied that he would like to have voted for me but thought it would be wasted.
Haha, I thought I flat-out said that. Through my analysis of you yesterday, you came up as suspicious to me. And honestly, nothing that's happened yet has done anything to decrease that, but Pitch's early vote and flip-flop on you, in relation to my stance from yesterday (and the fact that his early vote hasn't been jumped on yet, even though everyone has posted) make me hesitate.

(b) could have thought that there's enough of a possibility of the other one suspecting me that they could use the confusion to their benefit.
This, if we do have a Pitchwolf, is something I could agree with.

Probable situation if Sally had been killed:
One near-guaranteed vote Shasta from me.
A probable Shasta vote from Pitchwife
A probable Pitchwife vote from Shasta?
An vote for either Shasta or Pitch from G55 (who yesterDay found Pitch the more suspicious of the two).
Yesterday, I was more suspicious of you than I was of Pitch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Which of Pitch and Cop has more to gain from G55 being gone? It's a difficult question to answer, considering there must have been a pressing reason to kill her off as opposed to Sally. I'm going to look back and see who they both suspected.

[Coppermirror]

I ended up analysing Pitch's vote for me first, as it'll help me compare him and Shasta later.

Pitch's progression towards voting for me

Was Pitch a paranoid innocent falling into a trap, or a wolf trying to increase his odds of victory by feigning the progression of suspicion over the Day, or frightened by me failing to rule him out completely in my first post of the Day?

Post #192, where he replies to my first post of the day.
- points out that G55 came to see him as more innocent over the course of the Day.
- says that Sally is a good Pitchwolf spotter.
- thinks that a Shastawolf might find Sally easier to persuade
- thinks that I might be a wolf trying to keep options open over who to frame

Post #195, responding to Sally
- thinks that a Shastawolf might be calmer now because of there being no Seer around.
- says he is no longer willing to cut me any slack because Whether or not she's really new to the Downs (see Eomer's speculation yesterDay), she's clearly not new to the game as per her posting, so I'm not giving her passes anymore because "a first-timer wouldn't have done that".

Now, this sounds a bit odd to me. What did he mean by that? In fact, Pitch, if you're around before deadline I would like you to explain what you meant. What "clearly not new to the game as per her posting"?

If you're talking about yesterDay when I mentioned that I'd read lots of old games at the Downs, it's odd that that would change your mind. Because that was not the first time I'd mentioned that fact. I mentioned it on Day 2, and I also mentioned it on this game's admin thread shortly after I signed up.

I've read old stories about other villages with werewolves in them, of course...and a few of them have descendants in this very village. But really, those are very old stories. (It doesn't help me much to know how someone might react back in 2006!)

I don't know whether you're an innocent who has been carelessly overlooking facts, or a wolf using that as a pretext for a sudden change in opinion. If it's the former and that's why you voted for me, it's very bad luck that I wasn't around to give you further info on that.

Now looking at post #203...and wow, until reading it properly now I had not realised how bad Pitch's logic was in it. Pitch, if you're an innocent and such shoddy reasoning here causes the village to lose the game (because now it can only be a tie), I'm going to be very annoyed with you once it's over.

But we think we've just found something, my precious:

My first thought was that G55 might have been got rid of because she was very unlikely to vote for me (and me for her). However, the more I think of that the more I think that can't be it. Because a hypothetical wolf-me would have to be a complete idiot to get rid of someone who would be so unlikely to vote against me.

But you aren't a wolf, are you? So you couldn't have killed her anyway, and whether or not you would have been daft to do so has nothing at all to do with the price of milk, right? Except if you are a wolf and did kill her because we'd never think you did (but gave yourself away here).

What. You should have been able to realise that I was talking about what the wolf would want other villagers to think I would have done.

I'll spell this out for you slowly.

I was wondering whether the wolf had taken out G55 in order to more easily cast suspicion on me. Because with G55 around, who more or less trusted me (as much as you can a non-known innocent), it would be much more difficult for either you or Shasta (of whom I know for certain one is the wolf) to wage a successful campaign to get me lynched. That is, trying to persuade the innocents remaining that I'm a wolf.

However, there is a big flaw in their plan, if that is the case. That being that if I were a wolf, which is what the wolf would like to persuade the innocent villagers of, I would have to be a total fool to get rid of G55. So I wondered if maybe their goal was not to put suspicion onto me after all, but some other goal.

That is what I was saying. You, apparently, could not follow that without thinking "She considered the hypothetical actions of what would be sensible for her to do as a wolf! That means she's a wolf!". No. Bad Pitchwife, bad!

And then there's this:

YesterDay I said that I would definitely vote Shasta toDay. Sally yesterday did at least consider the possibility of a Shastawolf earlier on, too.

And I voiced more suspicion of Shasta than of you yesterDay, making it clear that my choice who to vote was between Eomer and Shasta. So we end up toDay with Cop, Shasta and the two players Cop considers most likely to vote Shasta. Isn't that an amazing coincidence?

Hmm...thank goodness, your logic improved a little here. The logic above was offensively bad. But this is still not good logic. If I were a wolf, I would have had no need to have got rid of G55 in the first place.

Well, Pitch, you have certainly made it hard for me to analyse whether your vote for me was the vote of an innocent or a wolf. I was expecting that if you were a wolf you would have given reasons which seemed sensible on the face of it but have a false premise. Instead you come out with what looks to me to be a load of rubbish based upon fine wording, casting aside from consideration the reasons you didn't consider me suspicious before. What am I to make of this?

At least your second reason (which does not appear to be your main one) has some more substance. If you're a wolf, that is probably what you killed G55 hoping that the village would think. If Shasta is, that is probably what he was hoping you would think.

Edit: cross-posted twice with Shasta.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

G55:

Regarding the KitSeer incident -

Copper sounds genuine and innocent.

Pitch, meanwhile, looks less than so:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.
That's a good way of playing a reverse psychology trick on inocents - "they wouldn't think that a wolf would be dumb enough to add (not even correct... add) to another's statement something that could incriminate him" line of thought. A kind of bluff. A wolf would not emphasize his own guiltiness, right? That must make him innocent etc.

I don't like it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.



And #148 -

My suspicion list at the moment is a copy of mirror's, except that just switch my name around with hers. I shall take a look at Shasta, Pitch, and Eomer.
Wolves: Nessa, Inziladun.

Potential wolves: Eomer, Shasta, Pitchwife.

Probably innocent: Galadriel55

Known innocents: Sally, Coppermirror (known to me, anyway)

Deceased known innocents: Nerwen, Kitanna

From her analysis of Pitch -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
All right, so yesterDay that post got me into a mood that really went not in Pitchie's favour. The reason for that is that I've seen almost exact copies of that post said by wolves who want to avoid any extra interaction that may get them under suspicion, or to hide the fact that they have extra knowledge behind the convenient situation that now everyone knows it.

Now, though, as I reread the thread I can see a reason for an innocent Pitch to be so passionate about it. Kit didn't say she'll wait a bit before giving the name. She said she won't give it to a village that doesn't trust her, which, from a certain point of view, could sound ridiculous.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.
Would that not be a convenient post for a wolf to make? "I don't like it, so that's my excuse for when she turns out innocent, but I'll vote her anyway since she, after all, is more suspicious and less believable and etc [insert "reasons"]".

But on the other hand, again, Pitch could just be an innocent who believed Zil but had a genuine bad feeling about lynching Kit.

And regarding Pitch's vote for Kitanna over Inzil -
Can't tell much about the intentions behind the words from the arguments; they are true and most things are taken in consideration. The vote for Kit could be cast by a confused ordo (sally's there too) or a knowing wolf. But it works just a bit too well if Pitch is the last wolf who was trying to save his mate, and since he voted early it explains why no one gave the final push to the Kitwagon. Unless the remaining wolf is bold and confident enough to sacrifice Zil just in case, even when there was a good chance of saving him.

Anyways, I still don't have a clear picture of who might be the last wolf, but Pitch and Eomer seem to me more likely choices than Shasta.

Later...

Also, I don't know why exactly, but the last few posts by Pitchie make me drop my suspicions on him a bit again. Head tells me "danger" and vibes tell me "safe". Ddd Urgh! Why am I so conflicted about Pitch?

Regarding Pitch's vote for Eomer -

I rather like Pitch's vote. Adds to the number of notches for his innocence.

Regarding Cop -
Personally I highly doubt she's a wolf. The D1 vote would have been immensly daring and unexpected for a first vote ever. And in general copper's comments strike me as jen-you-wine, usually making sense and pretty sharp, only sometimes with the trace of newbishness.


And, as Pitch said, if she's a wolf and is playing her first ever game so well, she deserves to win. Though I'd rather have a goodies' victory in that case, I would not grudge a loss to her. But that's beside the point. I'm not analysing her posts because she doesn't strike me as the remaining wolf.



Conclusions:
G55 is pretty suspicious of Pitch early on, then gets to be more wishy-washy about him. However, she's much more suspicious of him than she is of Cop, whom she never seriously considers to be a wolf. The only real reason I can come up with for Copwolf to decide to kill G55 is that it seemed a big part of G55's trust in her stemmed from "Well, she's a newbie, I can't see her doing that", and it being possible that she might be swayed later - but when you combine that with the answers to "why not Sally?" (which I haven't even looked at yet), not even that appears to make much sense.

Summa summarum - It's pretty difficult to come up with a reason why killing G55 is a good move for Cop, whereas it doesn't not make sense for Pitch.

On to sally. Hopefully things will be clearer when I'm done there.

[Coppermirror]

After I've finished my analysis, I'll probably address the rest of your post, Shasta. But I'll go over this point first.

Yesterday, I was more suspicious of you than I was of Pitch.

You barely said anything yesterDay, just showed up, bantered a bit, then said you would do an analysis of me as nobody else had done so (which you then did) and then voted later. You did not even mention Pitchwife.

In fact, Shasta, your lack of contribution to the discussion yesterDay is one of the things which makes me suspicious of you. The only person you analysed was me, and of your vote for Eomer, you said that was based on self preservation and did not say any more than that. I did ask you that Day to say what your opinions were of Eomer and Pitch were, but you never did.

But I still need to consider the case against Shasta carefully. He hasn't said much yet, so I want to see more of what he has to say. He's planning to analyse me, but I would very much like to see what he thinks of the other candidates too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally:

On Day 1, regarding Nessa's vote for a then-absent Pitch -
This is a horrible thing to say, but I think Nessa's vote actually makes me look bad and Pitch look better. After all, she said things against me and then went after someone random in the end, disregarding her earlier "suspicion" of me.

Of course it's also possible she just hoped to lynch a possibly gifted Pitch in his absence, which would also not surprise me; I didn't go after Eomer for fear of doing exactly that, so I could see a wolf capitalizing on the lack of Pitch and disregarding anything else in hopes of having one less gifted come the Morrow.

Regarding the KitSeer incident -
Pitch and I really need to stop agreeing. And yes, I'm using the word creepy again, 'cause it's getting to those levels. But, you know, maybe we're just right.

And then today -
Oh my cupcakes. I was reading through the thread trying to get a bead on Pitch when I saw this post. And then I realized....

Quote:
Originally Posted by tiny old me
Pitch and I really need to stop agreeing. And yes, I'm using the word creepy again, 'cause it's getting to those levels.
Have I been tricked by Mr. Wolfgreeable all this time?

And then there's her post #207, which I won't bother quoting.


Conclusions:

Well, Sally seems to have barely mentioned Cop at all, and as for Pitch, she mentions him in passing once or twice, but never really seems to suspect him. She's made some points against him today, but for the purposes of determining why she wasn't killed, that's irrelevant.

So, basically, she's an enigma. Speaking from wolvish experience, the only thing worse than having a cleared innocent at endgame is having that same cleared innocent at endgame, and having no idea which way they'll jump. Sally appears to be both, as far as a Copwolf or Pitchwolf is concerned.

So... why not Sally? She appears to be worse than G55 for the wolves to leave alive in every way, which leads me back to my original conclusion - there had to be an extremely pressing reason why the wolf thought having Sally alive at endgame would be more advantageous than having G55.

If we have a Pitchwolf, it might be that having an unknown (Sally) was preferable to having someone who was unlikely to vote Cop and considered Pitch to be a more likely wolf than me. Had Sally been killed, a Pitchwolf would have likely been facing a vote from G55 (and possibly a self-preservation one from me, as well, considering Cop's likely vote for me.)

If we have a Copwolf, the reasoning becomes muddy. As has already been shown, there simply isn't any good reason I can think of for Cop to have killed G55 - had Sally been killed, Cop would have already had a reason to vote for me and could be reasonably sure that she wouldn't be receiving G55's vote. Whereas Sally could vote in any direction - including for Cop.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You barely said anything yesterDay, just showed up, bantered a bit, then said you would do an analysis of me as nobody else had done so (which you then did) and then voted later. You did not even mention Pitchwife.

Obviously I wasn't suspicious enough of Pitch yesterday to say anything - if I had been, I'd have mentioned it.

In fact, Shasta, your lack of contribution to the discussion yesterDay is one of the things which makes me suspicious of you. The only person you analysed was me, and of your vote for Eomer, you said that was based on self preservation and did not say any more than that. I did ask you that Day to say what your opinions were of Eomer and Pitch were, but you never did.
I'm very sorry that the real world intruded, that I was pressed for time, and couldn't meet your exacting standards. My deepest apologies.

In any case, my vote for Eomer was just that - self-preservation. I hadn't looked at him close enough to warrant any real suspicion, so I was forced to vote to keep someone I knew was innocent alive - myself.

As far as Pitch goes, he's been the calm, collected, slightly-under-the-radar Pitch that I'm used to seeing until today. I almost never form an opinion of him before Day 3, he's one of the hardest people for me to read.

[Coppermirror]

I'm very sorry that the real world intruded, that I was pressed for time, and couldn't meet your exacting standards. My deepest apologies.

:rolleyes: I know you mentioned you were busy yesterDay. But that's not something villagers can rely on when dealing with a possible wolf, as I'm sure you know. The more info that's out there, the better.

In any case, my vote for Eomer was just that - self-preservation. I hadn't looked at him close enough to warrant any real suspicion, so I was forced to vote to keep someone I knew was innocent alive - myself.

As far as Pitch goes, he's been the calm, collected, slightly-under-the-radar Pitch that I'm used to seeing until today. I almost never form an opinion of him before Day 3, he's one of the hardest people for me to read.

Hmm...that's fairly useful information to know. Thanks.

[Coppermirror]

Case against Pitchwolf

Day 1 - nothing, as he wasn't here.
However, Nessa voted for him, expecting him to be mod-fired. Nobody else would have voted for him. Was it a throwaway vote against an innocent, or a vote so she could say "I voted for a wolf!" later?

Day 2
- Chatted with Inzil about Nessa before the Seer-revelation.
- Voted for Kitanna.
I wasn't expecting the voting record on Day 2 to be very useful. A sensible wolf would vote Inzil in order to seem less suspicious later on. On the other hand, Pitch might have been relying upon doing the opposite of the sensible thing in order to appear less suspicious.
- Thought that Inzil was the Seer, initially. (Although he is not the only one who thought that - Sally did too.)
- Corrected Inzil about Shasta.
Yes, yesterDay I thought this was evidence of his innocence. But paranoia has set in, and I'm sure a Pitchwolf would be very happy to correct an Inzilwolf on that.

Day 3
- Did an analysis of each person. Most suspicious of Eomer and Shasta.

Day 4
- Was tetchy in response to a typo by me saying I'd do an "analysis of Pitchwolf" rather than an "analysis of a Pitchwolf"; said that people would get the wrong impression and think that my mind was already made up. Even though in the same paragraph, I said that I still suspected Shasta the most.
- Might be showing signs of feeling troubled by me backing off slightly from 100% definitely voting for Shasta.
- Used what I find spectacularly bad reasoning as his reason for voting for me.

It seemed rushed and based (a) on odd, flimsy logic, and (b) based on the premise that if I were a wolf I would gain something from G55's death, which is not correct. This makes it seem to me as if he realised I might not be as 100% set on voting for Shasta as he was the previous night, and panicked a bit.

Re the killing of G55,

If we have a Pitchwolf, it might be that having an unknown (Sally) was preferable to having someone who was unlikely to vote Cop and considered Pitch to be a more likely wolf than me. Had Sally been killed, a Pitchwolf would have likely been facing a vote from G55 (and possibly a self-preservation one from me, as well, considering Cop's likely vote for me.)

this states the possible reasons for Pitch to kill her rather than Sally.

Case against Shastawolf

Day 1
- Gave the first vote for Nessawolf, before she made her suspicious Pitch vote. Could have been a wolf-on-wolf vote; it was by no means certain at that point that anyone else would be voting for her.

Day 2
- Inzil implied incorrectly that Shasta voted for Nessa after her vote for Pitch rather than before. This could be a subtle attempt to protect Shasta.
However...he could probably expect us to remember what actually happened. Also, Pitchwife jumped in to pick him up on that. I had taken that as a sign of Pitch's innocence, but now it's down to the point of Shasta vs Pitch, I'm not sure I like using the same bit of evidence to say one is innocent and one's guilty, especially when the evidence is based on a statement from Inzilwolf.

Day 3
- Did not give his opinions of Eomer and Pitch on when I asked him to.
- Makes a case against me and only me; if he's a wolf, that was a good time in which to do so, before the final Day.
- Innocent-Eomer found him more suspicious than Pitch.

Day 4

Re the killing of G55, if we have Shastawolf, he may have thought that Sally would be more likely to trust him. His odds were fairly bad in a hypothetical toDay with G55 alive, as I think that he would have been much more likely to get a vote from Pitchwife. He would have known that unless things changed somehow, he would be very likely to get a vote from me.

So...to sum this up, I think that both a Shastawolf and a Pitchwolf would have a reason to keep Sally around. Shasta may have a better reason, but Pitch was also in a spot of bother having G55 around who suspected him more than Shasta. They would both gain from this move.

Pitch's vote for me and his reasons for it make me feel very suspicious of him. His actions are consistent with a wolf getting rattled toDay and making some bad leaps of logic as a result of it. However, he must have known that doing so would look very suspicious. He could also be a panicked, rushed innocent.

Shasta has stayed mostly calm, has spoken up a little more toDay. However, even though he suspects me a lot for reasons for reasons I find a bit shaky, he's realised that if I were a wolf I don't have anything to gain from G55 being killed. His progression of thought toDay seems more logical than Pitch's. But I find myself feeling much more suspicious of him while reading his posts than I do Pitchwife.

I would really like to hear from Sally and see if she has more any insight. If I was forced to vote right now, I would probably stick to my guns and vote for Shasta. But Pitch has been acting suspiciously toDay too.

[Pitchwife]

Popping in briefly from work because this deserves an answer:


Now, this sounds a bit odd to me. What did he mean by that? In fact, Pitch, if you're around before deadline I would like you to explain what you meant. What "clearly not new to the game as per her posting"?
What I mean is your posts give me the impression that you're more familiar with the tricks of the trade than you should be from mere reading. They sound like you've played if not BD style werewolf, then some other variant of Werewolf or Mafia before.

I was wondering whether the wolf had taken out G55 in order to more easily cast suspicion on me. Because with G55 around, who more or less trusted me (as much as you can a non-known innocent), it would be much more difficult for either you or Shasta (of whom I know for certain one is the wolf) to wage a successful campaign to get me lynched. That is, trying to persuade the innocents remaining that I'm a wolf.

However, there is a big flaw in their plan, if that is the case. That being that if I were a wolf, which is what the wolf would like to persuade the innocent villagers of, I would have to be a total fool to get rid of G55. So I wondered if maybe their goal was not to put suspicion onto me after all, but some other goal.
Duh, I suppose that makes sense. I remember distinctly feeling I had caught you in a big slip there, but having slept over it not so much. Anyway, can't be changed now. Proceed.

[Coppermirror]

What I mean is your posts give me the impression that you're more familiar with the tricks of the trade than you should be from mere reading. They sound like you've played if not BD style werewolf, then some other variant of Werewolf or Mafia before.

:smokin: I'm flattered, but I've never played any variant of the game before.

Duh, I suppose that makes sense. I remember distinctly feeling I had caught you in a big slip there, but having slept over it not so much. Anyway, can't be changed now. Proceed.

OK, thanks for replying. Sorry if I was too scathing of you earlier.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Day 1
- Gave the first vote for Nessawolf, before she made her suspicious Pitch vote. Could have been a wolf-on-wolf vote; it was by no means certain at that point that anyone else would be voting for her.
This is all true, but I think it's currently thought by most that I voted for Nessa day 1 for no reason. Not true. After rereading, I can see how my explanation at the time may have failed to be clear, so let me restate.

First, Inzil mentioned a feeling of unease where Kitanna was concerned -
Kit still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all.
Sally then appears to latch onto it, going so far as to award Kit her vote -
So I suppose that leaves....

++Kit

For making me feel creeped on. Really though, it's rather random, and I'm sorry, but I don't have much to deal with right now, so it's process of elimination rather than acting on suspicion at this point. :/
Nerwen then evinces suspicion of Sally because of it -
Sally's vote, though, looks pretty opportunistic and her explanation sounds like hedging.

Then Nessa says this -
But I'm not sure I like the way sally ends up latching onto Inzil's random unease with Kit, admittedly upon much the same reasoning.
Next, Nerwen begins to be suspicious of Nessa -
But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?
And finally, I say this -
Funnily enough, I was going to say relatively the same thing... only replacing your name with Eomer's.
and place my vote.

Now, the reason for my vote (which was, admittedly, not well explained) is this. Around the same time, Eomer was also showing some suspicion of Sally for that, along with Nerwen -
I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.

So when I said "...only replacing your name with Eomer's", what I was saying is that I didn't like the way Nessa had latched onto Eomer's suspicion of Sally's latching onto Inzil's suspicion. Since what I was thinking seemed to mirror Nerwen's point so uncannily, and I was about to go to bed at the time anyway, I thought it was a decent place to put a vote.

I hope that clears things up.

[Coppermirror]

This is all true, but I think it's currently thought by most that I voted for Nessa day 1 for no reason. Not true. After rereading, I can see how my explanation at the time may have failed to be clear, so let me restate

....

I hope that clears things up.

Ah, it's okay. You've gone to a bit of trouble over nothing there, I'm afraid. I thought from the beginning that your reason for placing a vote for Nessa was all right. Some people thought your vote had no grounds, but I didn't. If you check my analysis of you from yesterDay, I said as much there.

So - on Day 1, Shasta says very little, and then votes Nessa. I think he had reasonable grounds for his vote, given the circumstances, but it could have been a vote for a packmate which he wasn't expecting anyone to follow up on seriously. Galadriel55 makes a point in her analysis that Shasta's vote changes the dynamics of the Day's voting and that there was no real need for him to keep away from the Kitanna-wagon. I'm not quite so sure about this. To me it looks as if that would have been a safe vote for a wolf.

But I see that Pitchwife doesn't seem to think so. (etc etc)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ah, it's okay. You've gone to a bit of trouble over nothing there, I'm afraid. I thought from the beginning that your reason for placing a vote for Nessa was all right. Some people thought your vote had no grounds, but I didn't. If you check my analysis of you from yesterDay, I said as much there.

Duly noted. Sorry about that.

[Coppermirror]

Shasta, would you mind giving us your current suspicions and what vote you think you may be likely to place later?

My suspicions are as outlined above, and I'm waiting to see what Sally thinks. She's familiar with both you and Pitch from previous games, and is the only person I can trust for certain out of the current village. It's probably best for the two of us non-known-innocents who have yet to cast votes to give our suspicions before we find out what she thinks. That will give more information to work with.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta, would you mind giving us your current suspicions and what vote you think you may be likely to place later?

My suspicions are as outlined above, and I'm waiting to see what Sally thinks. She's familiar with both you and Pitch from previous games, and is the only person I can trust for certain out of the current village. It's probably best for the two of us non-known-innocents who have yet to cast votes to give our suspicions before we find out what she thinks. That will give more information to work with.

Well, I came into the day suspicious of you (cf. yesterday), but as of now I'm likely to vote for Pitch. Mostly for things that have happened today, such as the fact that I can't think why you, as a wolf, would kill G55 and that no one has jumped on Pitch's vote.

[Coppermirror]

Well, I came into the day suspicious of you (cf. yesterday), but as of now I'm likely to vote for Pitch. Mostly for things that have happened today, such as the fact that I can't think why you, as a wolf, would kill G55 and that no one has jumped on Pitch's vote.

Hmm. That is what I was expecting you to say if you were an innocent. (Of course, it could the decision of a wily Shasta-wolf trying to look innocent...)

If Sally thinks it's more likely that Pitch is the wolf, I will vote for Pitch. If she thinks it's you, I'll vote you.

And if she doesn't show up, I'll be very unhappy.

[Coppermirror]

There's about 45 minutes until the deadline, isn't there?

I really hope that Sally is here soon enough to be able to read everything and decide on an informed vote. If she isn't here in time for that, I can no longer rely on her analysis and knowledge of the players based on previous games. That does not make me a happy camper.

My planned vote from earlier is not as firm as before, given that Shasta has gone through the posts and come to the conclusions I would expect an innocent to come to. Am I really going to be in the situation of being mostly sure of my vote throughout the day right up until the last hour? :(

[Shastanis Althreduin]

There's about 45 minutes until the deadline, isn't there?

I really hope that Sally is here soon enough to be able to read everything and decide on an informed vote. If she isn't here in time for that, I can no longer rely on her analysis and knowledge of the players based on previous games. That does not make me a happy camper.

My planned vote from earlier is not as firm as before, given that Shasta has gone through the posts and come to the conclusions I would expect an innocent to come to. Am I really going to be in the situation of being mostly sure of my vote throughout the day right up until the last hour? :(

Considering you were planning to vote me... hopefully, yes. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Fifteen minutes till DL... no Sally. Hmm.

[Coppermirror]

:eek: 15 minutes to go.

If Sally does not show up in the next ten minutes, I'll have no option but to vote for Pitch and hope it's him.

Edit: Cross-posted with Shasta.

[satansaloser2005]

Fifteen minutes till DL... no Sally. Hmm.

Good morning, darling. :Merisu:

[satansaloser2005]

If Sally thinks it's more likely that Pitch is the wolf, I will vote for Pitch. If she thinks it's you, I'll vote you.

That doesn't make me feel any better about you, you know. :rolleyes:

[Coppermirror]

It looks as if I'll be voting Pitch, then. I am much more suspicious of him now than I was earlier on, so I don't feel too bad about that vote.

Even if Sally shows up now, unless she's got something very dramatic to say ("This thing Shasta says proves he's 100% wolf!") then I don't think I can rely on her, since she probably hasn't had time to read the thread.

So, Shasta. Looks as if I'll be trusting you.

Edit: cross-posted with Sally

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Good morning, darling. :Merisu:

Oh, good. :D She was just waiting for a dramatic entrance.

[Coppermirror]

Sally! You're here.

That doesn't make me feel any better about you, you know. :rolleyes:

I was planning to defer to your knowledge and experience. :cool:

[satansaloser2005]

Really? Really? I'm a known innocent, not the seer. Cop, you have to be able to form your own opinions, to make up your mind on your own. You can't just wait around for someone to show up and tell you who to vote. Especially in this situation, where I've already accused you of being opportunistic, that looks horrible.

Shasta, my pet, are you here?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*waves*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also I don't think it's Cop at this point, unless she killed G55 for the sole reason of making the rest of us go "She'd never do that!" :rolleyes:

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, good. :D She was just waiting for a dramatic entrance.

Always. Also, I was apparently waiting for Coppercub to make herself look even worse in those blissful minutes where I hit the snooze button. I didn't plan that though. She did it all on her own.

So what do we do, boys? I don't want to hand the wolf the game, but Copper....I'd rather read the Silm all in one sitting than let her win at this point. I'd feel stupid. :eek:


Shasta, I'd appreciate it if you vote first, just for dramatic effect. Is this acceptable?

[Coppermirror]

I'll set this up in another window just in case time runs out. Ready to post this if the deadlines gets too close...

++Pitchwife

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Fine by me.

++Pitchwife

[satansaloser2005]

Also I don't think it's Cop at this point, unless she killed G55 for the sole reason of making the rest of us go "She'd never do that!" :rolleyes:

That's my reasoning. The Night kill is the only reason I haven't already voted her, but everything else screams cub to me.

[satansaloser2005]

++Cop


I don't mind tying these two. Also, I hate forum delays. But you shall not torment me this time, Downs! If we lose the game, it will be because of me, not because of a glitch!!!!!!!!!!! (Wait. I don't think that's a good thing. Meh.)


EDIT: x'd of a sort, in that the other votes showed up while I was trying to post this (again with the stupid forum delays)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's three for Pitch...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Or two, rather.

[Coppermirror]

Always. Also, I was apparently waiting for Coppercub to make herself look even worse in those blissful minutes where I hit the snooze button. I didn't plan that though. She did it all on her own.

So what do we do, boys? I don't want to hand the wolf the game, but Copper....I'd rather read the Silm all in one sitting than let her win at this point. I'd feel stupid. :eek:


Shasta, I'd appreciate it if you vote first, just for dramatic effect. Is this acceptable?

Well, thank goodness Shasta voted Pitchwife, because I'm innocent.

The village still has 50-50 odds of winning.

I see why the wolf wanted Sally rather than G55, whichever of Pitch and Shasta it is.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, thank goodness Shasta voted Pitchwife, because I'm innocent.

The village still has 50-50 odds of winning.

I see why the wolf wanted Sally rather than G55, whichever of Pitch and Shasta it is.

Well, actually... :rolleyes:

[Meneltarmacil]

At dusk, the remaining villagers gathered at the gallows. A tie had been reached in the voting.

A roll of dice determined that Pitchwife would be the one lynched. The old man was hauled up to the platform, whining and complaining every inch of the way. His protestations did him no good, though, and he was left to choke.

No transformation occurred, though. Pitchwife was really an old man all along. Coppermirror, Shasta, and Sally looked at each other nervously as the sun set.

The three villagers walked back home. An uneasiness filled the air, and it began to get dark quickly. Sally was walking slightly ahead when suddenly she heard a scream. Looking back, she saw a big grey wolf hunched over the body of Coppermirror.

She gasped in horror and tried to flee, but the wolf was too fast and pinned her to the ground. Before devouring her, though, it spoke.

"Who would have thought it would come to this, my dear?" Shasta said while licking his furry chops.

"I trusted you." Sally responded. "After all that time playing music together, how could you do this?"

"Business before pleasure, my love."

With that, Shasta devoured the last villager. The wolf left the now-deserted town and headed north to Isengard.
------------------------------------------------

The Living
Shastanis Althreduin: Werewolf

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2
Inziladun (Werewolf): Killed in pie fight with villagers on Day 2
Kitanna (Radagast): Neck snapped by wolf on Night 3
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 3
Galadriel55 (Ordinary Villager): Skinned by wolf on Night 4
Pitchwife (Ordinary Villager): Lynched by villagers on Day 4
Coppermirror (Ordinary Villager): Mauled by wolf on Night 5
satansaloser2005 (Ordinary Villager): Devoured by wolf in endgame

***WOLF VICTORY***

[satansaloser2005]

Well, actually... :rolleyes:

Just promise me one thing. If Cop survives, eat her first. After all, I'm sure you were told not to play with your dinner, but dessert is an entirely different matter. :smokin:


EDIT: Whoops. I didn't refresh again before replying. My apologies, Menel.