Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Loslote]

I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time.

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

[Loslote]

As for Cop's reveal, I think we shouldn't consider her a known innocent, exactly, but I am inclined to trust her for now.

[Thinlómien]

Fine at the moment
McCaber - I believe his claim and his behaviour supports his innocence.
Coppermirror - let's see how it goes with her claim.
Kath - Echo's death makes her possibility of her guilt ignorable for the time being.

Starting to feel concerned about (mostly because I've been taking their innocence almost for granted this far)
Boro - I had a good gut-feeling of him earlier, but I've grown suspicious now that he's been posting less. I have not forgotten my bororadar isn't infallible anymore so I shouldn't trust mere gut-feeling.
Greenie - she is kind of sneakily avoiding all suspicion why demonstrating no great signs of innocence either. Worrisome.
Shasta - his relaxed and humorous countenance first made me trustful, but now it all too much reminds me of evil!Shasta who's happy because he's avoiding all suspicion. He's a tad too gleeful to be innocent.

Aargh
Nerwen - there are all those little things against her and I agree with Shasta that her vote was a little apologetic, but then again I still think she seems to be wracking her brain the way an innocent would.
Eönwë - he's made a couple of eyebrow-raising posts both yesterDay (the summary) and toDay (overtly elaborate theories about Night-kills plus some of the bickering with Nerwen), but I still think openly looking for support to save Holby isn't something I would put past him without more evidence of his guilt.

Not too concerned about
Lottie - given that she started the bandwagon against Holby yesterDay when there was suspicion in the air against her makes me think she's not the most urgent of my concerns (even though it's totally possible she's a wolf).


Great, yesterDay I didn't suspect anyone, now I suspect everyone. Let me gather my thoughts.


edit: xed with all

[Thinlómien]

Now I'm actually pretty sure 2 of our remaining baddies are among Shasta, Boro and Greenie. Not because they look particularly guilty, but because the others look quite innocent.

Nerwen still seems to think like an innocent and - whatever crazy ideas I might have entertained - her row with Eönwë looks more innocent-on-innocent than anything else.

The same reason goes for Eönwë's innocence. Also, I'm going to repeat the effort to save Holby once more. Plus, that last post of his now was probably the most innocent sounding post I've seen the whole Day if you exclude McCaber's posting.

Lottie's last couple of posts sound very innocent too, plus like I said I'm going to momentarily give her the benefit of doubt for starting the Holby-wagon.

Kath, McCab and Cop are all quite clear for the time being.

Up next: who of the three remaining ones look the most fishy aka who are the monsters and who is the maaan.


PS. I know I'm saying different stuff in consecutive posts right now but I'm thinking furiously and basically writing all my thought processes here. Hope it's enlightening or at least entertaining. :rolleyes: ;)

[A Little Green]

I would think if Cop was a sorcerer trying to pull off all the stops to hold off being lynched she would be making a false seer claim. Therefor the "I'm either the protector/hunter wizard" I'm going to take as genuine.I'm not sure about this - the hunter/ranger-reveal is far less risky because a) it's practically impossible to disprove and b) it doesn't require saying anything else. Meaning that if you fake reveal as a seer, you need to be able to elaborate on your dreams and preferably point to hints in your previous posts or something. You practically can't blunder a ranger/hunter-reveal, but a seer-reveal you can.

That said, I won't be voting Cop toDay. I think it's best we wait and see what happens during the Night. So that leaves
Kath and McCaber who I'm definitely not voting,
Lommy and Shasta who keep giving me good vibes, though I might have to look at them more closely later,
Lottie who also looks quite good to me, though to a slightly lesser degree than the two previous ones,
Nerwen and Eonwe whose squabble made both look worse, and
Boro who I feel slightly concerned about.

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.This is an interesting point, especially combined with her yesterDay's vote post:I really just can’t make up my mind whether the “evil” reading of her posts is the right one, but I think it’s a possible one, anyway.Which also comes across as somewhat apologetic. As if she was apologizing in advance in case we happened to lynch the person she voted for and they turned out to be innocent. Concerns me a little. But then again there's Eonwe too, who I'm getting quite wary of. He leaps rather easily from disagreeing with Nerwen to suspecting her and then as she responds to that he does an almost-Legate-180 and says Nerwen might not be suspicious after all. What?

What confuses me even more is that I doubt their exchange was wolf-on-wolf - it would have been extremely bold to draw so much attention to themselves, especially as neither had really been in the spotlight yesterDay. Seems like a pointless risk to take. It is also possible that it was innocent-on-innocent and I'm wasting my time here, but they both look fishy and I have no better leads at the moment.

There would also be Boro who I'm getting more concerned about, but I don't have time for a proper look at him now so I'll probably have to leave him be for toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and two Lommies!

[Eönwë]

In any case, taking this argument post by post I can see the merits of thinking the wolves would rather not have killed new, confusing Echo on the very first night over no-trace Inzil. However, leaping to such a concrete suspicion of Nerwen is just that - a leap.
Well, she didn't seem to consider that part of the situation at all. And since she went through all the posts, I felt like such a massive oversight might not be unintentional. And it's one that could be defended in a way that looks innocent (note that she didn't defend it- she just refused to acknowledge that it existed). It needed to be challenged.


My dear one is pretty known for her skills at analysis at this point - it's an odd sort of game if she doesn't do at least three. Given that, I'm not sure why Eonwe finds it a wolvish trait.
My point is not that she makes the list, it's that she misses stuff out. And a post-by-post analysis becomes a sort of 'official' overview of someone (to an extent). Which is not good if it's lacking, and could be an intentional way for a wolf to hide some important point in plain sight by brushing over it or mentioning it lightly and never getting back to it.

I'm not understanding the second paragraph much, either. It would be better for Kathwolf for people to believe Kath was dreamt? Or Holby? If Kath, it doesn't make any sense - either way, Kath is basically outed as a dreamed wolf.
The point is that if they really thought that Echo was the seer, it's more likely they thought Holby was dreamt.

If they didn't really think Echo was the seer, because he/she was acting that way, they could make it seem as if they thought he/she actually was the seer. In this circumstance, championing the opinion of them thinking that the dream was Kath would be more beneficial.

In the first scenario, Kath is irrelevant. In the second (admittedly far more elaborate), she's bought herself a lot of innocence.


As for this:

What does whether or not the kill of Inzil was aimed at taking out a gifted actually matter in the current situation?
This is the full exchange:

Actually... after looking at all this, I’d say it does speak for Kath’s innocence (particularly #62). Not because Echo was killed last Night, but because he/she wasn’t killed the Night before. Er– whatever Night that was– this being an important point. Apparently we began with a Day phase. In that case the Seer may have had no initial dream– if this is so, and the wolves knew it, it somewhat weakens the case for Kath.What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day?No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...
New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

edit: x-ed with Greenie

[McCaber]

I'm back from work, and the unrelenting heat has just about fried my brain. Hopefully I can find something to work from in the next half an hour.

[Thinlómien]

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd feel the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, she didn't seem to consider that part of the situation at all. And since she went through all the posts, I felt like such a massive oversight might not be unintentional. And it's one that could be defended in a way that looks innocent (note that she didn't defend it- she just refused to acknowledge that it existed). It needed to be challenged.


My point is not that she makes the list, it's that she misses stuff out. And a post-by-post analysis becomes a sort of 'official' overview of someone (to an extent). Which is not good if it's lacking, and could be an intentional way for a wolf to hide some important point in plain sight by brushing over it or mentioning it lightly and never getting back to it.


The point is that if they really thought that Echo was the seer, it's more likely they thought Holby was dreamt.

If they didn't really think Echo was the seer, because he/she was acting that way, they could make it seem as if they thought he/she actually was the seer. In this circumstance, championing the opinion of them thinking that the dream was Kath would be more beneficial.

In the first scenario, Kath is irrelevant. In the second (admittedly far more elaborate), she's bought herself a lot of innocence.


As for this:

This is the full exchange:



edit: x-ed with Greenie

Point A: "Refused to acknowledge" is a bold statement. I feel a better one might be "thought irrelevant" - your concept of importance and Nerwen's aren't necessarily the same, which is why some of the things you say come off as accusatory.

Point B: That's fair, but again, how can you be as sure as you appear that Nerwen left something out intentionally?

Point C: The second scenario obviously depends on Kath being a wolf. Given that (and given Nerwen's point about Echo living an extra day after calling out Kath), I'm fairly certain at this point that the first scenario is the correct one. While I applaud the way you look at things from every angle here, I do have to wonder how much of it is "finding something to post to look helpful", which is a common wolf trait.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd be the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?

[Loslote]

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd feel the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

Nnnnnnn. I can kind of see where you're coming from, but I'd feel uncomfortable lynching someone on such slim evidence. I do agree with you that Boro, Greenie, and Shasta look most likely to be our two (two? two) sorcerers (or you for that matter, though I'm agreeing with you so heartily just now that I'm more inclined to look at the others.)

[Coppermirror]

Well, I wrote up a big analysis of Echo, but there's no point in posting the whole long thing when there were so few conclusions to be drawn from it.

Echo's Day 1 vote for Kath is something that would have looked seerish to a Sorcerer-Kath, provided that the wolves actually knew that the Aura Reader got a pre-Day dream. The sorcerers would have been sensible to kill Echo off then, and didn't. They could have relied on Echo being a newbie who was just bluffing, or on people not believing the claims, but it would still be fairly risky and suggests that Kath is less likely to be a sorcerer, although by no means conclusively.

On Day 2, Echo was basically tapdancing on stage and singing that they were the Aura Reader, Holby was a sorcerer, and they would be killed for knowing too much. Overall, people's reactions to Echo were very similar and consistent. There doesn't seem to be much to learn from it.

Holby, Day 2

Lottie thinks Holby is alarming but that it may just be her style, and that it's easy to hide things with a style like that.

Nerwen thinks Holby is "Not necessarily evil, no– but not exactly helpful, either."

Shasta responds to Kath's annoyance about the lists and says after taking a second look, it seemed that Holby meant she suspected everyone but McCaber. He also thinks Holby's Day 1 vote looked panicky, and he wanted to know why Legate was more suspicious to her than Kath or me. This could either be a sensible train of thought or some subtle wolfy action, believing that Holby could be in trouble very soon.

Lommy asks Echo about why they suspect Holby, and thinks that Holby "looks fairly innocent". Hard to draw a conclusion from this here, as that would have been a sensible post for anyone.

Boro lists Holby among those who are "pinging on my suspicions".

At #133, Holby seems to suggest a Nerwen-Lottie pack. Given that she later voted for Nerwen and that she should have been able to see her eventual doom tap-danced out by Echo by then, I have to wonder if she was just trying to throw suspicion on innocent(s) or if it was subtle protection of Nerwen from a packmate. Holby's so confusing it's hard to tell.

#137 - Boro explains his suspicions of the Day, and of Holby says she's behaving with "textbook looking sorcery". He votes Lottie later in the post. If he's a sorcerer, that was actually pretty sensible, to voice suspicion of a wolf who would be going down perhaps the next Day, but not try to do anything to get them lynched on that particular Day.

#138 - Kath tries to reason out Holby's Day 1 vote, and thinks that if Holby was a sorcerer she might have been trying to save a sorcerer-me.

#147 - Lottie says "Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused."

#151 - Greenie says of Echo and Holby that they're confusing and "I don't know what either of these two are doing!"

#181 - Kath says "I am very unhappy about" Holby. This is pretty consistent with her Day 1 opinion.

#184 - McCaber says he'll vote Holby, who's suspicious. I don't think he could be a sorcerer, so there's no need to analyse that vote.

#188 - Lottie puts Holby in her "no read" category and says if she's isn't voting for Kath she'll vote for one of her no reads. This seems sensible enough.

#194 - Steve lists Holby in his "What?!" category.

#200 - Lottie votes Holby because she doesn't find the other two contenders all that suspicious, she already has one vote for her, and she wants to put forward someone who has a chance of being lynched. This looks a very sensible, innocent vote. But, it would actually be sensible for a sorcerer to vote this way too, if she wanted to secure people's opinions about her innocence even if it got Holby killed. Echo and McCaber were already very likely to vote for Holby. Technically Lottie cast the first vote, but in a way it was the third one. I think she's either innocent or a possible Saruman.

After that, votes for Holby come from McCaber, me, and Echo.

[Boromir88]

Don't really want to rush myself...but I love the random "I'm concerned about Boro...but I have no idea why I should be" occurances that simultaneously pop up after a few days. Nothing seems to ever stop that from happening. Although, the way Lommy is talking her head around in circles makes me feel pretty good about her.

Both of Shasta's votes aren't very good, but someone rushing to not be mod-fired and apparently with a serious lack of sleep making them. And since Holby pointed out not liking Shasta's abstaining vote in Day 1...I'm not sure if a wolf would do that against another mate.

Normally Day 1 debates over strategy and game mechanics turns out to be between two innocents...but with fewer people than the start and this about Echo being killed it's looking like some sorceric paws are in the frey.

I thought Eonwe was a bit too gun-ho at the start of the day. And that can look wolvish if it looks too much like wolf conversation from the previous night. But Nerwen's later reactions look bad too.

The thing I kept noting is she hasn't seemed to be as annoying in prodding and questioning people on everything. She did with Lottie some, and then today got on Eonwe...but then started backing off. Ermmm..today

++Nerwen

[A Little Green]

Great timing to only think of this this late, but I think I managed to put my finger on what bothers me about Boro. I know he's short on time and all that, but the time he does have he seems to use on who he doesn't find suspicious rather than who he does. I would think an innocent Boro, if in a hurry, would rather concentrate on possible wolf-suspects than elaborate arguments on why someone isn't suspicious. It strikes me as fishy.

Thus, giving the squabblers the benefit of the doubt for toDay (chiefly because I can't decide which of them looks worse),

++ Boro


EDIT: x-ed since Shasta's 260, bolding

[Thinlómien]

You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?Yes, you were suspecting him more than her, but it seemed to me you were keeping the option of stating to suspect Nerwen open as well.

[Eönwë]

So that's

Nerwen -> Eonwe
Boro -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Boro

so far

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen 1, Eönwë 1, Boro 1, right?

Out of these I prefer Boro, but I'd still like Shasta dead better. If Greenie and Shasta are indeed in cahoots and we end up lynching Boro because Greenie started it I'm going to feel sick.


edit: xed with Eonwe

[Boromir88]

Great timing to only think of this this late, but I think I managed to put my finger on what bothers me about Boro. I know he's short on time and all that, but the time he does have he seems to use on who he doesn't find suspicious than who he does. I would think an innocent Boro, if in a hurry, would rather concentrate on possible wolf-suspects than elaborate arguments on why someone isn't suspicious. It strikes me as fishy.

Thus, giving the squabblers the benefit of the doubt for toDay (chiefly because I can't decide which of them looks worse),

++ Boro


EDIT: x-ed since Shasta's 260, bolding

Oh yah, that makes sense..."I don't know which of these two look the worse so let me vote for someone I'm not that suspicious of, but he always makes me nervous because it's Boro...and well he could be bad because he's Boro."

Thanks hun. :rolleyes:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Yes, you were suspecting him more than her, but it seemed to me you were keeping the option of stating to suspect Nerwen open as well.

Mmm, nope, not really. I don't particularly care for her apologetic votes, but I don't find that in and of itself a reason to think her suspicious.

++Eonwe

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh yah, that makes sense..."I don't know which of these two look the worse so let me vote for someone I'm not that suspicious of, but he always makes me nervous because it's Boro...and well he could be bad because he's Boro."

Thanks hun. :rolleyes:

No worries, Boro, her sister's gunning for me because (as far as I can tell) everyone else looks more innocent? I dunno.

[Thinlómien]

++Boro

I will honestly apologise if you're innocent but I'm currently pretty sure Eönwë is innocent.


edit: xed with Shasta - ha, I will laugh if you two are wolves and Greenie is innocent, but I'll also hit my head against something if all four of us are innocent.

[McCaber]

I'm also pretty sure Eonwe is innocent, so

++ Boro

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Boro

I will honestly apologise if you're innocent but I'm currently pretty sure Eönwë is innocent.


edit: xed with Shasta - ha, I will laugh if you two are wolves and Greenie is innocent, but I'll also hit my head against something if all four of us are innocent.

Well, I don't know about that. But you might consider not narrowing things down so far with so many people still alive. That's almost as bad as Lottie's wolf-colored glasses syndrome.

[Thinlómien]

Alright, Shasta, let's call it a truce but I promise I'll get back to you toMorrow.

[Loslote]

++Boro

I'm sorry, hon, but I trust Steve more than you. :(

[Eönwë]

Well, one of my key suspicions about Greenie was her connection to Cop, but now that I'm considering Cop innocent, most of her other stuff seems pretty good to me.

I don't really find Lottie particularly evil- I haven't really seen anything yet that makes her guilty, despite what people are saying about her.

And it looks like time's running out so I'll stop there and hopefully have more time to express my opinion toMorrow.


However, I'm not too sure about Shasta

Won't lynch:
Lommy
Greenie
McCaber
Cop
Lottie

Might lynch:
Shasta
Nerwen
Boro
Kath

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, Shasta, let's call it a truce but I promise I'll get back to you toMorrow.

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly. :mad:

[Eönwë]

Well, I have no idea what the total vote count is, but just to be sure:

++Boro

[McCaber]

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly. :mad:

I'd rather have voted Nerwen, but that would leave us in a three-way tie and with no further progress.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, that's torn it then. Very nicely done.

[Eönwë]

If Boro turns out to be a sorcerer, I think it will be worth it to look at Nerwen toMorrow.

edit: fixed bolding

[Boromir88]

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly. :mad:

Thanks Shasta.

I'm still going to hope for a village victory...but that was just ridiculous.

[Thinlómien]

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly. :mad:Okay I know I called it a truce already but don't say I didn't say it: if Boro dies and turns out to be innocent, Shasta has sure tried to make himself look good with his couple of last posts.

[Eönwë]

Also, beware of Kath. She's submarining.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay I know I called it a truce already but don't say I didn't say it: if Boro dies and turns out to be innocent, Shasta has sure tried to make himself look good with his couple of last posts.


I'm probably posting after deadline, but wow, Lommy, when did you get so mean?

[satansaloser2005]

My sweet Boro. What have you done?

(No. Seriously. What the heck happened here? Boro's innocent, by the way.)

[satansaloser2005]

No magic took place this night.

Day begins early. Please feel free to discuss.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Does that mean night's over and done with? Early. Odd.

Anyway, yes, I'm the Seer, yes, Eonwe's a wolf, yes, I'd dreamt Boro innocent, and yes, I'm soundly irritated with the lot of you.

[Thinlómien]

Seriously.

What. The. [something censored].

Here I was like 80% certain Eönwë was the seer.

Great.

Now I must think, but given how well it appears to have gone in this game this far, I'm not sure it will be of any help. :rolleyes:


PS. Also last Night what the [again censored], I hope that was something positive (ie. a ranger save) rather than negative!

[Coppermirror]

Does that mean night's over and done with? Early. Odd.

Anyway, yes, I'm the Seer, yes, Eonwe's a wolf, yes, I'd dreamt Boro innocent, and yes, I'm soundly irritated with the lot of you.

Sorry. I would have voted Eonwe yesterDay, but it was already too late to save Boro by then, so I wanted to keep my cards close.

I'd thought Lottie was the Seer...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Yes, well, I would have said something earlier, but I really hadn't thought that bandwagon would pick up quite the speed that it did. Irritating.

[Coppermirror]

Sally, does Saruman show up as an ordinary sorcerer to the Aura Reader, or will they know if it's him?

[Thinlómien]

Well even if this was a wolf ploy I fail to see what great damage following Shasta would do. Flushing out the real seer, yes, but with any decent chance s/he'd have quite a lot of information for us anyway, and we're not yet in the point of the game were numbers have great importance, so I can't really see the point of a wolf doing a fake reveal just now.

I will reread toMorrow and maybe I'll get a hallelujah revelation that Shasta's lying, but now it does seem to make much more sense to take his reveal at face value, although personally I'm not too happy about this because *grumble grumble grumble* it's quite sour to admit I've been basically wrong about everything.

On the plus side, we got a wolf. I guess that's more important than my pride. ;) And if Eönwë indeed is a wolf, yesterDay's events look all the more interesting. I will have a look at that too tomorrow, but now I'm going to sleep (if I can fall asleep despite the explosions happening in my brain right now.


PS. One last thing to address now: Shasta, I definitely did not mean to offend you yesterDay and I'm sorry if I accidentally did. From my perspective, your posting just looked like you're attaching yourself to an innocent so you can look better the next Day - too bad it seems you knew Boro was innocent because you were the seer, not because you were a wolf. :rolleyes:

PPS. Speaking of which, if something makes me feel better right now it's that at least we went for Boro yesterDay instead of Shasta whom I wanted to lynch. (If you think of it, it's quite ironic, I was thinking I'm voting Boro to make sure the seer doesn't die - and then it worked, not because the other lynch candidate was the seer though, but because my top suspect whom I decided not to vote that Day was the seer. :rolleyes: )


edit: xed with Shasta
edit2: and with Copper, 'downs is messing up with me again

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It may be a few hours before I make it back to a computer, so I'm going to go ahead and get this out of the way -

++Eonwe

I also hope to do some rereading of yesterday.

[Coppermirror]

I'm going to go and re-read the previous Days too, in light of the person I thought was the Aura Reader being different. I'm working on the provisional assumption that Shasta is telling the truth. Either way, we're going to have a wolf in the bag and a revealed Aura Reader.

I think the question about whether the Aura Reader can see Saruman is pretty important.

[Eönwë]

Ok, well, this has gotten interesting.

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

So, I suppose, as an innocent I can't really refute his claim well, but at least I know that at least now I'll be able to say what I think without needing to defend myself for the rest of the Day, because I know, unless there's anything particularly glaring, the logical thing would be to lynch me.

[Eönwë]

I think the question about whether the Aura Reader can see Saruman is pretty important.
Also whether the sorcerers know the answer to this question. Please tell us, Sally.

[Eönwë]

Also, bear this in mind: once I'm dead, the player list looks like this:

Shasta [S]
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lottie
Greenie
Echo
Lommy

That means that after their Night kill, it will be 2:6.


Ok, so you we react all depends on the Seer. The problem is that we haven't been told whether or not the Seer can tell the difference between Saruman and the other sorcerers. So, these are the possibilities as I see them (excluding special circumstances like saves, hunts and lover findings):


1. Seer has not dreamt of a sorcerer
You have to kill Shasta. Better to kill a known wolf than chase after an unknown. And then:

A. Shasta is Saruman. You only need to hunt down the last wolf. Ratio is 1:6.

B. Shasta is the other sorcerer. By the next morning, the ratio is 2:4, which means that the village has to guess correctly that day.



2. Seer has dreamt of Saruman
You kill Saruman. Hope it's not Shasta.


3. Seer has dreamt of a sorcerer

A. We know it's not Saruman (after Sally confirms):
1. It's not Shasta- kill Shasta.
2. It's Shasta- kill Shasta, since he's the only known wolf.

B. We don't know whether it's Saruman or not (after Sally confirms):
1. It's Shasta- Same as 1A
2. It's not Shasta
a. The wolves know this - they're playing this sort of game (www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0) with the village.
b. The wolves don't know this - Given that the other option is a possibility too, it's probably more likely that it's not Shasta.


4. Seer has dreamt of both
If Saruman's identity is unknown, the village is forced to play the wolves' game.


edit: fixed wording

[Eönwë]

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

[Coppermirror]

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

Eönwë, if you're innocent here, would you be willing to actually say what your role is?

[Eönwë]

Eönwë, if you're innocent here, would you be willing to actually say what your role is?
Just an ordinary boring villager.

[Eönwë]

Also, something to think about before I go for the night: Considering that Boro was probably the wolves' guess for Echo's Night 1 dream, it's not unlikely that a reasonable amount of Boro suspicion is suspicious itself.

[Loslote]

Does that mean night's over and done with? Early. Odd.

Anyway, yes, I'm the Seer, yes, Eonwe's a wolf, yes, I'd dreamt Boro innocent, and yes, I'm soundly irritated with the lot of you.

Oh, honey, that's cute. Really. It is.

I'd thought Lottie was the Seer...

Yeah, I was pretty panicked over yesterDay. Knew I'd blown it. Whoever you are, thank you, Ranger darling for saving me. :Merisu:

I could've drawn this out, seen how it all went down, tried to find the other sorcerer...but the thing is, I already know both of them. :P

Shasta must be a sorcerer, what with his false reveal, and last Night, my dreams proved fruitful and I discovered that the final sorcerer is Greenie.

Lommy, dear, you were right all along. ;)

My other two dreams were of the innocent Nerwen and Steve. I did not dream the first Night - I was confused and thought I couldn't. Oops!

[McCaber]

*monocle pops out*

Good lord! Now this has gotten interesting.

[Nerwen]

No surprises here– my treasure’s “Well, that’s torn it. Very nicely done,” remark (#280) pretty much had to come from either a wolf preparing for a fake reveal– or the Seer– and I’m inclined to think he’s the latter.

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway.

Well, I can think of one reason– the wolves might have been convinced Steve was the Seer, about to out one of their number, have failed to kill him last Night due to Ranger-protection, and thought this was the best option left them. Okay. That’s what we’ll have to look at if Steve turns out innocent, or something else turns up, or whatever.

In the meantime, I think Eonwe should go on toDay’s lynch-list.

–Oh yes, I’ve seen your numbers-based arguments, Steve, but the problem, from the village’s point-of-view, is that they would apply in the case of any alleged wolf revealed by any alleged Seer.

By the way:
So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).
Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?

EDIT:X’d with Steve, and Lottie’s competing reveal. Well, well!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I thought that might happen. Well, that's all to the good then! :)

Now that we know that the last two sorcerers are Eonwe and Lottie (hi, dear, thanks so much for showing up), we simply have to decide which one is Saruman and kill that one first. I'm assuming, at this point, that the wolves obviously know which is which - otherwise, what's the point of Lottie fake revealing? - and thus, are either going to:

A: Try to get me lynched (a tactic they appear to be going for), or, failing that -

B: Try to get the non-Saruman wolf lynched to throw dissent into the ranks.

Lottie's fake reveal points at Eonwe being Saruman, in my opinion - given the amount of pressure I put on him being lynched, she would have had to try something in order to attempt to elongate the game. Unfortunately, Lottie's blown it with her dreams. Let's take a look -

Firstly, Lottie claims not to have dreamt on Night 0. Isn't that convenient? (By the way, my Night 0 dream was Nerwen. Old habits die hard, I suppose. :p)

Lottie then claims to have dreamt Eonwe and Nerwen (not mentioning in which order these two were dreamt.) In that case, why were you so hesitant about saving Eonwe yesterday? True, you voted Boro, but you were very apologetic about it - almost as though you knew he'd turn up innocent. And saving Eonwe at the same time! Genius. :smokin:

Lastly, Lottie claims to have dreamt Greenie (who, by process of elimination, must be innocent, though I hadn't dreamt her.) Then she goes on to congratulate Lommy on being entirely correct. Almost as though she picked Greenie specifically to bring Lommy down on her side. Novel idea, that.

In any case, my other dreams were Night 1 Lommy, Night 2 Boro, and last night's Eonwe. Cue me being so very annoyed as one of my known innocents proceeded to lynch another.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Either way, we need to get whichever of Eonwe and Lottie is NOT Saruman today. I'm obviously a goner tonight (unless neither the Ranger nor the Wolves targeted me last night, which could be possible, considering I was being gunned for fairly hard), and so probably won't be around to ferret out the new wolf should we be wrong.

[Loslote]

Lottie then claims to have dreamt Eonwe and Nerwen (not mentioning in which order these two were dreamt.)

Nerwen Night 1, Steve Night 2.

In that case, why were you so hesitant about saving Eonwe yesterday? True, you voted Boro, but you were very apologetic about it - almost as though you knew he'd turn up innocent. And saving Eonwe at the same time! Genius. :smokin:

Hesitant to save Steve? I voted the way I did purely for that reason! I didn't suspect Boro. I didn't have an opinion on Boro. But I knew Steve was innocent, and I knew Boro had a 1/5 chance (roughly, assuming Cop and Cabbie to be innocent) of being a sorcerer. Therefore, I thought he would be a better lynch than Steve...but that doesn't mean I felt at all okay with lynching someone even though I didn't actually suspect them.

Lastly, Lottie claims to have dreamt Greenie (who, by process of elimination, must be innocent, though I hadn't dreamt her.) Then she goes on to congratulate Lommy on being entirely correct. Almost as though she picked Greenie specifically to bring Lommy down on her side. Novel idea, that.

Actually, I thought Lommy had figured out that I was the Seer. I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1, and immediately after Lommy completely dropped her suspicion, not only of Nerwen and Steve, but also of me. I decided, since I thought she knew I was the Seer, to dream of Greenie rather than her - if Lommy-knowing-I-was-the-Seer was a sorcerer, I'd be dead before sunrise anyway. If Lommy is innocent, then I'd better dream of someone else. As it happens, I was paranoid and she thought the Seer was Steve. Ah well, it all worked out in the end! :D

EDIT: xed with Shasta

[Nerwen]

Well, I think I’ll leave our two candidates to fight it out for a bit, while I go and examine their track records.

[Loslote]

Picking up Shasta's Saruman question.

It would seem to make more sense to have not-Saruman fake a Seer reveal - thus, it would imply that Greenie is Saruman. However, they could be assuming that we'd think that and have Saruman reveal hoping to trick us into killing not-Saruman first...after all, they knew the real Seer was still around, and chances were pretty good that I'd dreamt a wolf. They might have gone into this knowing it was suicidal and relying solely on the Saruman power. That'd be a bit riskier, though, and I'd guess that our Saruman is Greenie.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Shastanis Althreduin]

All well and good, but a question -

Nerwen Night 1, Steve Night 2.

I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1

How does one defend someone on Day 1 if they haven't dreamt them until Night 2, I wonder?

[satansaloser2005]

Sally, does Saruman show up as an ordinary sorcerer to the Aura Reader, or will they know if it's him?

Saruman would appear as any other sorcerer.

[Loslote]

All well and good, but a question -





How does one defend someone on Day 1 if they haven't dreamt them until Night 2, I wonder?

Nnn. I meant Day...what Day was yesterDay? Day 3? Sorry. Typo.

EDIT: xed with Our Beauteous Moddess

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Nnn. I meant Day...what Day was yesterDay? Day 3? Sorry. Typo.

EDIT: xed with Our Beauteous Moddess

I see.

[Loslote]

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

This one, to be precise.

[Coppermirror]

I love this situation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but now, we have either Shasta and Greenie sorcerers, or Eönwë and Lottie sorcerers.

All of the rest of us:
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lommy

should now be considered known innocents, I think. Unless something very interesting is going on.

I'm going to go and take a good look over things. We need to get Saruman toDay if we possibly can.

My other two dreams were of the innocent Nerwen and Steve. I did not dream the first Night - I was confused and thought I couldn't. Oops!

So if Lottie is the Aura Reader, she never dreamed of me. Hmm. I'd previously assumed she had; that's why I thought she was the Aura Reader before.

[Nerwen]

Day One

Lottie

#8 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=685658&postcount=8). Banter. (In which you can perhaps read either Seer– or wolf- hints if you really want to, but I think it’s just banter.)


#32. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=685686&postcount=32)
Feels “pretty good” about Coppermirror. Is “a bit shaky" on Greenie but “leaning innocent”. Legate and Greenie’s squabble seems innocent-on-innocent, though also possible from two “very bold” wolves. On the whole thinks them both innocent, but “with a question mark”. Lommy seems “a little less innocent, but nothing that shoves her into ‘terrifying sorcerer’ territory yet’. Has no read on Zil, Kath or me, and thus will be focussing on us. Mentions being busy that Day.

Comment: Although Lottie describes this post as “getting down to business”, she effectively says nothing much about any player apart from Cop, leaving it open to herself to suspect, or not suspect, anyone else at short notice. Well– it was very early in the Day, after all, and only her second post.


#71. [Replying to Kath at #54– the quote refer to Lottie’s comments on Legate and Greenie]
Originally Posted by Kath
Lottie:
Refusal to make a statement alert!
Oh, honey, I never commit to solid statements! I'm a philosophy major.

Seriously, though, this post just made me rather uneasy about her. A lot of the reasoning seems forced, almost like she's trying to suspect people even though she knows they can't be sorcerers. It could just be Day-1 lack of proper suspicions and trying to get traction, but it doesn't sit well with me.


#88.
Replying to Coppermirror at #86. ("http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=685746&postcount=86”)
I think your reaction here is wonderfully innocent, and I'm pretty okay with your first Controversial Post. At this point, I'm fairly certain you won't kill me in my sleep.

Legate's reaction to the Cop Controversy is also interesting - he doesn't jump on it as further reasoning to vote you, which could speak well for his non-sorcererarity, but he's experienced and might be wary of jumping on a bandwagon - though if that's the case, he wound up voting for you anyway, so I'm leaning innocentish on him.
This is where it gets interesting. Twice now we have had Lottie mention Cop in highly positive terms, while remaining non-commital about everyone else. A foolish move from a Seer who had in fact dreamed no-one yet– she should have realised how that would be taken if she died before revealing.


#89. Vote-post.
So we have a triple tie between Cop, Kath, and Legate, with no clarifying rules on tie-breakers? Well then.

++Kath

I find her far more suspicious than either Cop or Legate.
A somewhat fishy vote– somebody mentioned later that Lottie here seems relieved to have her choices narrowed down, and I tend to agree with that.

EDIT: And Lottie’s final post of the day was “That clears that right up”, with an eyeroll emoticon, in response to Holby’s re-creating the tie with her vote on Legate.


Shasta
#46. “Hi, I’m here” post. Also mentions being busy.

#84. Argh. Something's come up and I'm not going to be able to spend the time I'd like reading what's happened today.

Moddess Sally, I abstain from voting today.
And that’s it from Shasta for Day One.

Conclusions: Ugh. Shasta is an enigma and Lottie is a conundrum. In the context of Day One only, her comments about Cop look distinctly Seer-ish– however, Lottie herself has said she *didn’t* dream Cop, or indeed anyone. Wolf laying ground for a false reveal, then? But in that case, why didn’t she stick with Cop as her first dream?

Perhaps later Days will provide answers.

[Loslote]

So if Lottie is the Aura Reader, she never dreamed of me. Hmm. I'd previously assumed she had; that's why I thought she was the Aura Reader before.

Nope. If I'd dreamed you, I would've been much more vocal in my support of you - if I recall correctly, when you revealed, I said something along the lines of "well, I guess we can trust her, for now, but don't get too comfortable."

EDIT: Xed with Nerwen

[Loslote]

This is where it gets interesting. Twice now we have had Lottie mention Cop in highly positive terms, while remaining non-commital about everyone else. A foolish move from a Seer who had in fact dreamed no-one yet– she should have realised how that would be taken if she died before revealing.

I didn't think it would be a problem - I didn't think I'd been able to dream yet, and I assumed that was the general consensus. :o

[Nerwen]

I love this situation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but now, we have either Shasta and Greenie sorcerers, or Eönwë and Lottie sorcerers.

All of the rest of us:
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lommy

should now be considered known innocents, I think. Unless something very interesting is going on.

I'm going to go and take a good look over things. We need to get Saruman toDay if we possibly can.
We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.

So if Lottie is the Aura Reader, she never dreamed of me. Hmm. I'd previously assumed she had; that's why I thought she was the Aura Reader before.
I thought as much.

EDIT:X’d with two Lotties.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen
This is where it gets interesting. Twice now we have had Lottie mention Cop in highly positive terms, while remaining non-commital about everyone else. A foolish move from a Seer who had in fact dreamed no-one yet– she should have realised how that would be taken if she died before revealing.
I didn't think it would be a problem - I didn't think I'd been able to dream yet, and I assumed that was the general consensus.

That’s fair enough. On the other hand, this–

Originally Posted by Coppermirror
So if Lottie is the Aura Reader, she never dreamed of me. Hmm. I'd previously assumed she had; that's why I thought she was the Aura Reader before.
Nope. If I'd dreamed you, I would've been much more vocal in my support of you - if I recall correctly, when you revealed, I said something along the lines of "well, I guess we can trust her, for now, but don't get too comfortable."

– perhaps answers my concluding question. We’ll see.

[McCaber]

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.


I thought as much.

EDIT:X’d with two Lotties.

Can we bet that neither Lottie nor Shasta are Saruman? Unless it's a severe double-cross to throw the village off his trail for one crucial day. But that seems like more risk than a wolf pack under fire might take.

[Coppermirror]

I thought as much.

More specifically, I thought she had probably sent me a few specific "I'm the Aura Reader and I know you're gifted" hints. But if she's telling the truth those would have to be coincidental. And if she's a sorcerer she wouldn't have been able to guess...probably.

[Nerwen]

Day Two

Lottie

#107.
Originally Posted by Inziladun
Until further notice, everyone but me carries a presumption of guilt. Confessions will be entertained.
Maybe this could have been seen as a Seer hint? For the most part, though, Zil was fairly non-committal. He certainly didn't jump in guns blazing saying "x is evil", so I think he was probably a no-trace kill.
I have said (#148) why I don’t like this post, but here it is again:
Thing is, as I said in my analysis of Zil, his posts taken together might well have given off a gifted vibe, but that one by itself actually doesn’t look much like a hint. Through paranoid eyes, this looks rather like someone who has, in fact, studied Zil’s posts in detail, but wants to appear as if she hasn’t– and is also trying a bit of misdirection.


#115.
Echo, while frustratingly (and, it seems, purposefully) vague, does come off to me at least as being simply a nervous newbie. Unless he/she (did we ever get clarification on that point?) does something glaringly eeeeeevil, I'm inclined to give him/her an extension on his/her newbie pass.

Holby alarms me, but I get the impression that's just her style. Makes me nervous, though - it's too easy to hide under that.
Though I didn’t say actually as much, the first part of this struck me as being, at best irresponsible– letting the newbie think it’s all right to go on playing like that. The other one, on our known wolf is... well, it’s ambiguous.

#147.
Originally Posted by Kath
Lottie ~ so now that we know Legate is innocent, that comment that was pretty explicit about Legate and Greenie’s argument being the work of two innocents (definitely – her words) becomes interesting. Putting in a subtle defence of Greenie early on perhaps? After I throw some suspicion her way she says this:
A lot of the reasoning seems forced, almost like she's trying to suspect people even though she knows they can't be sorcerers.
And how precisely do I know they can’t be?
If you are a sorcerer, then you know who the other sorcerers are - and, by extension, you know the other sorcerers aren't. If you want to suspect anyone other than your fellow sorcerers, you have to fake suspicion.

On another note, I don't know what to think of Holby anymore. Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused.

YesterDay, Kath was my strongest suspicion, and I suppose she still is, but only by default. I'm mostly on the fence with her, leaning just a bit towards eeeeevil, but I'll probably spend more time looking over her posts later on to maybe see if I can work out where that feeling is coming from and whether or not it's justified.
So why hadn’t Lottie dreamed Kath the Night before, if Kath was her “strongest suspicion?”


#160. regrets lack of activity; comments on McCaber’s reveal:
I...don't think this is a move a sorcerer would make, especially not on Day 2 - it seems too risky. Can we be confident enough in that to write him off as a known innocent?


Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green
Which is pretty much what I was thinking, too: where is this Kath suspicion coming from? Apart from the one post on Day 1, she doesn't really give reasons for her consistent suspicion of Kath. I hope she returns to elaborate!
Mainly gut-feeling - a couple of her posts have nudged me the wrong way. I mentioned Day 1 that some of her reasoning felt forced. Nothing concrete, but enough to keep me wary.

List time:

Likely Innocent
McCobbler
Nerwen
Greenie

More Innocent Than Not
Cop
Echo
Boro

No Read
Steve
Lommy
Shasta
Holbytlass

Could Be Evil, Maybe
Kath

I might vote for Kath, but not if it'll be a throw-away. Otherwise, I'd prefer my no-reads over the ones I feel better about.



#200. Casts the first vote on Holby.
Okay. Well. At the moment, Nerwen and I both have one vote, while Cop has three. I'm going to

++Holby

Because I find her somewhat suspicious where I definitely don't find either Cop or Nerwen suspicious, and I want to put up another candidate who has a chance against Cop. I'm off to a nice dinner with the boy. Have a good Night, everyone.



Shasta

#118 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=685793&postcount=118).
Long post.

Finds Greenie dubious because she “elected not to say anything” regarding the number of villains and for her “delayed reaction” to Echo’s vote on Kath (that is, Greenie first simply reminded Echo to bold the vote, then only later reacted with shock to its contents).
Believes a post of Cop’s that Lommy found suspect was just “Cop’s brand of humour. very dry, that one.” Like Lottie, finds Cop’s controversial posts of the previous Day to be more innocent than not, though he also comments,
Although this bit was a bit of an eyebrow-raiser -
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cop
despite being aware it might look a bit off
I honestly can't tell if the fact that she considered how saying that would make her look before posting it makes her look better or worse.

He spends some time making a case against Legate (!), whom he doesn’t seem to realise is dead (?). In the course of this he several times he approvingly cites points made by Lommy.

Shasta concludes his post with this:
Lottie's vote post at #97 makes me uneasy. The tone is almost as if she's grateful her vote choices have been narrowed down, and that's never something an innocent actively wants.

Holby, by contrast, has a much more panicky feel to it (context - Lottie's post was seven minutes before DL, Holby's was five, so both extremely close to the end of the day, but Lottie was pretty calm about the whole thing.) I would, however, like to know why Holby found Legate more suspicious than Cop or Kath. I don't thinK I remember her being suspicious of him prior.

And Eonwe casts the deciding vote for Legate over Kath. He mentions Legate as a possible wolf earlier, so no real surprises there. Definitely worth a look later though, depending on what Kath turns out to be if she dies.

Echo makes the first post of Day 2 and mentions four people in his/her post - none of which are Kath. Curiouser and curiouser.
Curiouser and curiouser is right! How could either a wolf OR Seer not be aware of who had been lynched?!


#155. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=685844&postcount=155)
Another long post.

My refutation (#121) of one of his points against Greenie, and Greenie’s self-defence (#122) are “fair enough”, but “I just think the two posts taken together look strange”.

Banter with Lommy.

Disputes Boro’s contention (#137) that Holby’s weird list of the Day before was in itself suspicious:
I don't know that I buy this. I've seen things said purely in jest taken as "evidence" before, and I think it's very rarely ended well.
Agrees with Boro that Lottie’s “I’m inclined to think they’re both innocent” statement looks bad. [Note: Boro speaks of this as having referred to Lommy and Legate; actually it was Greenie and Legate]

Disagree with Kath (#138) that Cop’s vote for Legate was fishy, pointing out that Cop needed to save herself. Is curious, though, why Cop herself didn’t mention this as a reason. Supports Kath’s suggestion to Echo (that he/she should star giving clearer answers).

Responding to Greenie’s suspicion list (#151):
Originally Posted by Greenie
Therefore, my aim for toDay is to reduce the size of the third and fifth categories, preferably to zero though I'm not sure that's a realistic goal!
So you aren't going to attempt to fry the lone fish in your fourth (and most suspicious) category? You're not really helping me think you innocent, Greenie.
Note mild defence of Holby. On the other, the spat with Greenie doesn’t look that much like wolf-on-wolf to me– though who can be sure?

#176 [Replying to a comment by Lommy regarding his strange mistake about Legate]
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
True... so he started writing it yesterDay before DL but didn' post it??? Confusion.
No no. I wrote that post toDay and posted it when it was done - I just asked that question of Legate early on and forgot to go back and change it.

#213. Self-votes (the last vote of the Day)
I took a nap. :o My bad.

++Shasta



Well! More Ugh! Shasta’s mistake about Legate is bizarre, coming from a non-ordo of any stripe– yet he must be one.

Their votes are interesting. Shasta could have voted Holby, or could have tied Cop with Holby, negating the lynch– but did neither of these things. Lottie did actually vote the wolf– however, as Boro (I think) pointed out, it was a classic set-up for a “safe” vote.

At this point, by their own accounts, our rival Seers had had the following dreams:

Lottie: Nobody, Me.
Shasta: Me, Lommy. (Should I be flattered to be getting so much attention?)

That coming Night, “Seer” Lottie supposedly dreamed Steve and “Seer”-Shasta dreamed Boro.

Problematic, in both cases. As Shasta was, for all intents and purposes, silent on Day One, we obviously can’t make any comparison between dream-choices and stated suspicions that Day. On Day Two, the best that can be said is that he does nothing that would actually contradict his account– he doesn’t actually seem to have left any clues to his dreams at all. And I have to wonder why he didn’t go on to dream Greenie, his chief suspect at this point.

Lottie’s case is similar– but quite a bit more so. She lists me, her (supposed) sole dream at this point, as “likely innocent”– but couples my name with those of McCaber and Greenie. Meanwhile, apart from the rather sudden vote on Holby, her only real suspicion either Day was Kath, whom she never dreamed either Night.

[Nerwen]

Can we bet that neither Lottie nor Shasta are Saruman? Unless it's a severe double-cross to throw the village off his trail for one crucial day. But that seems like more risk than a wolf pack under fire might take.

You mean this sort of thing?
It would seem to make more sense to have not-Saruman fake a Seer reveal - thus, it would imply that Greenie is Saruman. However, they could be assuming that we'd think that and have Saruman reveal hoping to trick us into killing not-Saruman first

[A Little Green]

!!!

For me, this is pretty straightforward. I know Lottie is lying, so by definition Shasta has to be telling the truth.

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.Eonwe's reaction to finding himself supposedly in the same situation I'm in now is very interesting. If you know somebody is lying because what they say is simply not true (as would be the case if he was innocent), how convincing their tone is should have nothing to do with it. If somebody tells you that bananas are purple, however convincingly they say it shouldn't be of any consequence at all since you already know they're lying. Eonwe is ostensibly in the same situation as I am, and maybe it's a difference of temperament or personality but his reaction was pretty far from what seems natural to me in a situation like this.

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).Also - what? Is this a confession? I'm confused. :confused:

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

[A Little Green]

Also, I don't know how much I'll be able to be around toDay, so just in case (and to get it out of the way) -

++ Eonwe

Here's hoping they didn't bluff and he is, in fact, Saruman. That seems like the logical option considering why Lottie came up with a counter-claim to try and save him - coming out as the Seer to save a packmate is a foolhardy thing to do since now we know both their identities. If Lottie was Saruman, she could have let Eonwe die (and possibly even advocate for it) and scried herself a new mate during the Night. But if she is an ordinary wolf and Eonwe is Saruman, she may have reasoned that her chances of surviving alone are too slim - after all, we still have a ratio of 7/2, which if Eonwe is lynched is down to 7/1 with all the Gifted still alive among that number. Not easy prospects for a lone wolf.

[Nerwen]

Day Three

Lottie

#251.
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time.
I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.
This is–

1. The post Lottie points to as evidence for her dreams (#315).

2. The post she says made her “panic” that she had given herself away to the wolves (#303), #308). Also, I presume, the post to which she attributes her supposed Ranger-protection (#303).

Quite a lot to get out of that, I think.

(By the way– can somebody kindly explain to me exactly what Steve has said or done in the course of this game that made him look so shiningly innocent? Or even innocent at all? Really not seeing it.)


#252
As for Cop's reveal, I think we shouldn't consider her a known innocent, exactly, but I am inclined to trust her for now.
This, while consistent with Lottie’s account of her dreams, also would neatly explain why, if in fact a wolf, she did not later carry out her (presumed) earlier plan of naming Cop as her dream– she could hardly have done so after actually saying “we shouldn’t consider her a known innocent”. (As for why a wolf-Lottie might say this in the first place– well, by this point there were probably getting to be a few too many almost-known-innocents around.)


#261.
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd feel the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.
Nnnnnnn. I can kind of see where you're coming from, but I'd feel uncomfortable lynching someone on such slim evidence. I do agree with you that Boro, Greenie, and Shasta look most likely to be our two (two? two) sorcerers (or you for that matter, though I'm agreeing with you so heartily just now that I'm more inclined to look at the others.)
More buddying up to Lommy, looks like.


#275. Casts fourth vote on Boro.
++Boro

I'm sorry, hon, but I trust Steve more than you.
Or is this supposed to be where Seer-Lottie blew her cover? But Lommy and McCaber had both already given being “pretty sure Eönwë is innocent” as their sole reason in their vote-posts on Boro– hers is just a paraphrase of theirs.



Shasta

#221.
[Quotes my post to Steve (#220) regarding Echo’s death]
Basically, this. QFT.

I should be back soon with some actual comments, but this just begged for a "^" post.


#247.
It doesn't appear too much has happened today. It's been pretty well agreed upon that Echo died due to looking like a Seer - the only other thing of real interest is the Nerwen/Eonwe spat, which I'm going to have to take a closer look at.


#248. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=686002&postcount=248) [Replying to Cop’s doubts of McCaber ]
Cop re: #231 - The biggest point in McCaber's favor is that no one has stepped forward to contradict him. If he's not the other Lover, there's no reason for the real other Lover not to speak up.
The rest of the post is an analysis of the Nerwen-Steve spat. It is too long to quote in full. Shasta supports my reasoning and is “leaning towards” Steve being a wolf. He does, however, conclude with this comment on my vote:
The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

Of the two, I do feel Eonwe is more suspicious. However, that last post of Nerwen's does have traits of "oops, my counterattack worked too well, I hope he's not mad."
Which is certainly a peculiar thing for a Seer to say about a dreamed innocent.

#259. ("http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=686016&postcount=259”)
A response to Steve’s response (#256) to his previous post. Again, states agreement with my point on Kath, defends me against Steve’s “accusatory” tone and states a belief that Steve may be '"finding something to post to look helpful", which is a common wolf trait.’


#260. [Replying to Lommy at #258– the same post quoted by Lottie at #261.]
You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?


#269. Vote post, and reply to Lommy at #265.
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Yes, you were suspecting him more than her, but it seemed to me you were keeping the option of stating to suspect Nerwen open as well.
Mmm, nope, not really. I don't particularly care for her apologetic votes, but I don't find that in and of itself a reason to think her suspicious.

++Eonwe



#270.
Originally Posted by Boromir88
Oh yah, that makes sense..."I don't know which of these two look the worse so let me vote for someone I'm not that suspicious of, but he always makes me nervous because it's Boro...and well he could be bad because he's Boro."

Thanks hun.
No worries, Boro, her sister's gunning for me because (as far as I can tell) everyone else looks more innocent? I dunno.



#273.
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
++Boro

I will honestly apologise if you're innocent but I'm currently pretty sure Eönwë is innocent.


edit: xed with Shasta - ha, I will laugh if you two are wolves and Greenie is innocent, but I'll also hit my head against something if all four of us are innocent.
Well, I don't know about that. But you might consider not narrowing things down so far with so many people still alive. That's almost as bad as Lottie's wolf-colored glasses syndrome.


#277.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Alright, Shasta, let's call it a truce but I promise I'll get back to you toMorrow.
Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly. :mad:
Well, indeed. I mean, if he’s a wolf he must have been laughing his head off at this point.

I mean– what happened?!


[After Steve cast the fifth and final vote for Boro]
Well, that's torn it then. Very nicely done.


Now, Shasta’s attitude to Boro and myself on Day three could be that of a wolf playing “white knight”. However, if at this point I had to pick which of our candidate was the real Seer– it wouldn’t be Lottie.

Still, I’d very much like an explanation of Shasta’s conclusion to #248. Again, an odd thing to say about someone you’d dreamed as innocent.

Note: technically X’d with Greenie, but saw her vote-post before finishing.

EDIT: added omitted comment.

[Nerwen]

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?
Yes– it’d be like when the Cursed Villager is Turned– no traces to the last wolf because he/she was innocent before that. Perhaps worse, since Saruman can select the player.

Nasty thought here: I wonder if it works on gifteds?:eek:

[Loslote]

Now, Shasta’s attitude to Boro and myself on Day three could be that of a wolf playing “white knight”. However, if at this point I had to pick which of our candidate was the real Seer– it wouldn’t be Lottie.

Fine. You can lynch Steve toDay - we have enough innocents to be able to afford that - but when he turns out to be an Ordo, lynch Greenie toMorrow. :)

[Eönwë]

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway. Maybe they thought I was the seer, like Lommy did. Even though I'd finally just stopped suspecting Greenie. Or maybe that was actually the plan. Since I'd stopped suspecting Greenie , I wouldn't dream of her and then after getting lynched toDay, my change of opinion on Greenie could easily look like the dream of the Night before.


Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?
It means that whether or not the real seer believes me, they should come out now if they know the other wolf, because the other one would have to be either me or Shasta. Of course, she did, which is great.

Saruman would appear as any other sorcerer.
So, it looks like my earlier fears were not unmerited. And since Sally has decided not to tell us whether or not the wolves knew whether or not the seer to see who was Saruman or not, we're at an even greater disadvantage than we would be otherwise. Because as well as deciding whether the wolves are bluffing or double-bluffing etc., we also have to decide whether they knew, or thought we thought they knew etc. about how the dreams would show up. It's probably best to not think about the latter part too much though, because we'll probably never know.

I think what it boils down to is that if they're playing it safe, Greenie is Saruman. Shasta has already exposed himself and there was a chance that the Seer hadn't already found Greenie (she hasn't really appeared on many people's suspicion lists so far). But since they've already gone this far by risking this tactic this early (I mean, if they'd been able to stay alive until toMorrow, they'd have a much greater chance of success- unless maybe they thought the real seer was ready to reveal?), I wouldn't rule out the other option either.

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?
Nice try, most-likely Saruman!

edit: x-ed with Lottie

[Eönwë]

Also, doesn't anyone else see the gaping hole in Shasta and Greenie's logic?

It's quite obvious that if Lottie and I were wolves, the only reason for her to come out of hiding would be if I were Saruman, because otherwise she would get to use her Saruman powers once I was lynched. So, clearly the village would then go to lynch me anyway, and her coming out of hiding would just be damaging. It just doesn't make sense.

[McCaber]

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

If we don't get Saruman today, it might be beneficial to look at who would be the best option for him to draft tonight. Nerwen is a seer-confirmed innocent, I have no real record to speak of so far so trying to find a shift in my posting tone would be nigh-impossible, and Greenie is probably not a wolf now or Lottie wouldn't be trying to drag her into things. Even if the gifted can be turned, Shasta wouldn't be a good choice as the seer not dying after just one or two nights would draw so much suspicion. The one they would want to see turned would probably be the Ranger to guarantee their night kills, so whoever you are can just keep staying low.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Still, I’d very much like an explanation of Shasta’s conclusion to #248. Again, an odd thing to say about someone you’d dreamed as innocent.

Well, I couldn't very well say you were innocent explicitly. I was still trying to hide when I posted that - I figured that consistently supporting you over Eonwe was a subtle enough hint without not having any "reason" at all to think you might be a wolf. So I tried to find something that wasn't completely off-the-wall.

[Kath]

Right, after yesterDay's debacle on my part I am posting and voting right now to make sure we don't end up with any stupid modfires.

++EONWE

The only way to find out which of these two are telling the truth is to lynch one of their suggestions. Now Shasta says this one is guilty, Lottie says he is innocent. Therefore lynching Eonwe tells us who the Seer is. If it is Shasta then the pool of potential wolves is much reduced by his dreams. If it is Lottie then we know exactly who to lynch toMorrow. So to me this option makes the most sense.

This is likely to be my only post toDay as I think I am out until past deadline.

[Eönwë]

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.
I can understand Shasta- he voted straight after revealing, which gives him freedom to claim that he wouldn't expect a counter-reveal.

But surely Greenie's reasoning is enough to make it sound unbelievable:
Here's hoping they didn't bluff and he is, in fact, Saruman. That seems like the logical option considering why Lottie came up with a counter-claim to try and save him - coming out as the Seer to save a packmate is a foolhardy thing to do since now we know both their identities. If Lottie was Saruman, she could have let Eonwe die (and possibly even advocate for it) and scried herself a new mate during the Night. But if she is an ordinary wolf and Eonwe is Saruman, she may have reasoned that her chances of surviving alone are too slim - after all, we still have a ratio of 7/2, which if Eonwe is lynched is down to 7/1 with all the Gifted still alive among that number. Not easy prospects for a lone wolf. How does this make sense? And asking for clarification about Saruman's role? Seriously?

[Nerwen]

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I can understand Shasta- he voted straight after revealing, which gives him freedom to claim that he wouldn't expect a counter-reveal.

But surely Greenie's reasoning is enough to make it sound unbelievable:
How does this make sense? And asking for clarification about Saruman's role? Seriously?

Mm, no, actually that makes perfect sense. :confused:

[satansaloser2005]

Saruman's spirit would overtake that of a stronger than usual wizard. That caster would lose their gift (and their gift would fail that Night).

[Nerwen]

Saruman's spirit would overtake that of a stronger than usual wizard. That caster would lose their gift (and their gift would fail that Night).
And become a sorcerer?

If we don't get Saruman today, it might be beneficial to look at who would be the best option for him to draft tonight. Nerwen is a seer-confirmed innocent, I have no real record to speak of so far so trying to find a shift in my posting tone would be nigh-impossible, and Greenie is probably not a wolf now or Lottie wouldn't be trying to drag her into things. Even if the gifted can be turned, Shasta wouldn't be a good choice as the seer not dying after just one or two nights would draw so much suspicion. The one they would want to see turned would probably be the Ranger to guarantee their night kills, so whoever you are can just keep staying low.
Well, thanks for advising Saruman, McCobbler!:rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

Here’s something that struck me:

#308
Actually, I thought Lommy had figured out that I was the Seer. I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1, and immediately after Lommy completely dropped her suspicion, not only of Nerwen and Steve, but also of me. I decided, since I thought she knew I was the Seer, to dream of Greenie rather than her - if Lommy-knowing-I-was-the-Seer was a sorcerer, I'd be dead before sunrise anyway. If Lommy is innocent, then I'd better dream of someone else. As it happens, I was paranoid and she thought the Seer was Steve.

You are, then referring to the following sequence of posts on Day 3?

#249.
I'm having the strangest of feelings that Nerwen and Eönwë might both be wolves after all...

#251. [Replying to an earlier post of Lommy’s]
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time.
I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

#253 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=686009&postcount=254). A suspicion list, from which I’ll quote the relevant section:
Aargh
Nerwen - there are all those little things against her and I agree with Shasta that her vote was a little apologetic, but then again I still think she seems to be wracking her brain the way an innocent would.
Eönwë - he's made a couple of eyebrow-raising posts both yesterDay (the summary) and toDay (overtly elaborate theories about Night-kills plus some of the bickering with Nerwen), but I still think openly looking for support to save Holby isn't something I would put past him without more evidence of his guilt.

Not too concerned about
Lottie - given that she started the bandwagon against Holby yesterDay when there was suspicion in the air against her makes me think she's not the most urgent of my concerns (even though it's totally possible she's a wolf).

Lottie, not only is there no internal evidence that Lommy’s arguments are following your lead, the post is marked “xed with all”– which ought to include you, as the poster immediately before her. You didn’t notice that? And even if it weren’t so, I really can’t see how even the most paranoid Seer could read all that into what looks to me like a standard example of Lommyish flip-flopping.

[satansaloser2005]

And become a sorcerer?

Correct.

[Loslote]

I actually did notice the xed with all. It was the reason why I thought her sudden change from here:

Aargh
Nerwen - there are all those little things against her and I agree with Shasta that her vote was a little apologetic, but then again I still think she seems to be wracking her brain the way an innocent would.
Eönwë - he's made a couple of eyebrow-raising posts both yesterDay (the summary) and toDay (overtly elaborate theories about Night-kills plus some of the bickering with Nerwen), but I still think openly looking for support to save Holby isn't something I would put past him without more evidence of his guilt.

Not too concerned about
Lottie - given that she started the bandwagon against Holby yesterDay when there was suspicion in the air against her makes me think she's not the most urgent of my concerns (even though it's totally possible she's a wolf).

where she's still suspicious of Nerwen and Steve to here:

Now I'm actually pretty sure 2 of our remaining baddies are among Shasta, Boro and Greenie. Not because they look particularly guilty, but because the others look quite innocent.

Nerwen still seems to think like an innocent and - whatever crazy ideas I might have entertained - her row with Eönwë looks more innocent-on-innocent than anything else.

The same reason goes for Eönwë's innocence. Also, I'm going to repeat the effort to save Holby once more. Plus, that last post of his now was probably the most innocent sounding post I've seen the whole Day if you exclude McCaber's posting.

Lottie's last couple of posts sound very innocent too, plus like I said I'm going to momentarily give her the benefit of doubt for starting the Holby-wagon.

. . .

PS. I know I'm saying different stuff in consecutive posts right now but I'm thinking furiously and basically writing all my thought processes here. Hope it's enlightening or at least entertaining. :rolleyes: ;)

You'll notice that this second post immediately follows the previous post, but completely changes tune on Nerwen and Steve. Since the first post, which was wary of the two, xed with my defense of them - a defense spoken out of dream-knowledge - and was immediately followed by a change of heart, I decided it must mean that Lommy knew I was the Seer and figured out that I'd dreamed Nerwen and Steve.

[Eönwë]

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.
Mm, no, actually that makes perfect sense. :confused:
Ok, maybe you misunderstood me, but what I mean is that what she suggests of Lottie doesn't make sense as something a wolf in her situation would do, because why would there be any reason for people to lynch her instead of me? It just draws more attention to me. I get killed either way, and now she's out in the open.

[Eönwë]

A sudden thought:

If you are the real seer and you still haven't revealed, you need to do so ASAP. If it turns out Shasta and Lottie are actually the wolves, they have a certain 50/50 chance of winning.

[Eönwë]

That was worded badly, but what I meant was that if it were the case and there is no counter-reveal by the real seer, then the Day after toMorrow the village will have to choose between the two, where one choice means instant loss and the other certain victory the next Day. I suppose, looking at it like that, that it's actually quite unlikely unless they were desperate, but it's still a possibility to be aware of.

[Nerwen]

Ok, maybe you misunderstood me, but what I mean is that what she suggests of Lottie doesn't make sense as something a wolf in her situation would do, because why would there be any reason for people to lynch her instead of me? It just draws more attention to me. I get killed either way, and now she's out in the open.
Because– in the scenario that you are Saruman and Lottie is the other wolf– there’s now a decent chance of you being the one to survive, and that would be worth a lot to the . Your argument that there isn’t relies on multiple levels of second-guessing.

EDIT:X’d with Steve.

[Nerwen]

I actually did notice the xed with all. It was the reason why I thought her sudden change from here:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Aargh
Nerwen - there are all those little things against her and I agree with Shasta that her vote was a little apologetic, but then again I still think she seems to be wracking her brain the way an innocent would.
Eönwë - he's made a couple of eyebrow-raising posts both yesterDay (the summary) and toDay (overtly elaborate theories about Night-kills plus some of the bickering with Nerwen), but I still think openly looking for support to save Holby isn't something I would put past him without more evidence of his guilt.

Not too concerned about
Lottie - given that she started the bandwagon against Holby yesterDay when there was suspicion in the air against her makes me think she's not the most urgent of my concerns (even though it's totally possible she's a wolf).


where she's still suspicious of Nerwen and Steve to here:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Now I'm actually pretty sure 2 of our remaining baddies are among Shasta, Boro and Greenie. Not because they look particularly guilty, but because the others look quite innocent.

Nerwen still seems to think like an innocent and - whatever crazy ideas I might have entertained - her row with Eönwë looks more innocent-on-innocent than anything else.

The same reason goes for Eönwë's innocence. Also, I'm going to repeat the effort to save Holby once more. Plus, that last post of his now was probably the most innocent sounding post I've seen the whole Day if you exclude McCaber's posting.

Lottie's last couple of posts sound very innocent too, plus like I said I'm going to momentarily give her the benefit of doubt for starting the Holby-wagon.

. . .

PS. I know I'm saying different stuff in consecutive posts right now but I'm thinking furiously and basically writing all my thought processes here. Hope it's enlightening or at least entertaining.


You'll notice that this second post immediately follows the previous post, but completely changes tune on Nerwen and Steve. Since the first post, which was wary of the two, xed with my defense of them - a defense spoken out of dream-knowledge - and was immediately followed by a change of heart, I decided it must mean that Lommy knew I was the Seer and figured out that I'd dreamed Nerwen and Steve.
Ah. I suspected this would be your next argument. Sorry, don’t buy it. It’s hardly a “complete change”, as Lommy’s already leaning innocent on us both in the first post you quote. It looks to me like Lommy is just wavering and talking herself in and out of suspicion, as she had been doing already. (if you extend the sequence back, the whole thing runs “probably both innocent” ... “no, maybe they’re both wolves” "...no wait, maybe they seem innocentish than not...” “...yeah, probably both innocent.")

Even if you thought your post had influenced Lommy, I really, really don’t see what would make you jump to the conclusion that she must have– very suddenly indeed!– pegged you as the Seer.

[Nerwen]

That was worded badly, but what I meant was that if it were the case and there is no counter-reveal by the real seer, then the Day after toMorrow the village will have to choose between the two, where one choice means instant loss and the other certain victory the next Day. I suppose, looking at it like that, that it's actually quite unlikely unless they were desperate, but it's still a possibility to be aware of.
Oh, I thought of that all right– ages ago, actually– but as you say yourself, it doesn’t make much sense for them to be doing such a thing at this stage.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, better vote.

Steve does seem to be the best option. If innocent, he’s an ordo compared to Lottie’s claimed Seer. If a wolf, he seems more likely to be Saruman than Lottie does, especially with his last couple of posts looking like the start of an attempt to bus Lottie.

++Eönwë

[Loslote]

Assuming I'm telling the truth and Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, but we lynch Steve toDay instead:

As of toMorrow morning, we will have 5/2 (innocent/sorcerer). You will then lynch Greenie, of course, and we will be at 5/1. The next Day we'll be down to 4/1, at which point we'll lynch Shasta and be done with it. Unless it turns out that Shasta is Saruman, which I doubt at this point, I really don't care if you believe me or not.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Assuming I'm telling the truth and Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, but we lynch Steve toDay instead:

As of toMorrow morning, we will have 5/2 (innocent/sorcerer). You will then lynch Greenie, of course, and we will be at 5/1. The next Day we'll be down to 4/1, at which point we'll lynch Shasta and be done with it. Unless it turns out that Shasta is Saruman, which I doubt at this point, I really don't care if you believe me or not.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen
I quite agree with this. If they’re wolves, it’s most unlikely Saruman would be the one to stick his neck out with the false reveal.

[Eönwë]

Because– in the scenario that you are Saruman and Lottie is the other wolf– there’s now a decent chance of you being the one to survive, and that would be worth a lot to the . Your argument that there isn’t relies on multiple levels of second-guessing.
All I'm saying is that it seems far-fetched for a wolf to do what she did for such an uncertain payoff. Even if we were wolves and she averted the vote for one Day, there's still a strong possibility that the village would go for me the next Day to test out Shasta's claim.

[Thinlómien]

Wow, this is just crazy.

I would so much more like to believe Lottie as that would save my dignity, but if I put that aside, it looks like a hard choice. Lynching Eönwë (which seems to be about to happen) or Greenie seems the wisest course toDay and then we'll be wiser, so maybe I shouldn't waste my time on this but really:

- I think Lottie's dreams make more sense than Shasta's. Missing the Night0 dream sounds like a lie that would draw too much attention (why not say she dreamt say Inzil instead?) and some stuff quoted earlier toDay didn't really seem like Shasta had dreamt of Nerwen.

- Eönwë is digging a hole in which to bury himself, even if he's innocent.

- Greenie's reaction was... weird. But nowhere as weird as Eönwë's hole-digging.

- I don't understand why sorcerer!Lottie would rather risk the whole pack's survival by doing a counter-reveal when she could just let Eönwë-Saruman die and keep laying low. Are the benefits (ie. getting a new unknown wolf) really worth the risk (Eönwë-Saruman getting lynched toDay and sorcerer!Lottie the next)? Honestly I think not. What guarantee would Lottie have that the village lynches her instead of Eönwë? It would be really bad miscalculation on her part. I don't think she's so stupid (sorry darling if you are, but then you deserve to lose. :p)

- both seers are clearly trying to get Nerwen and me on their side, which is sweet. :p

- I need to do some maths.

[Eönwë]

- Eönwë is digging a hole in which to bury himself, even if he's innocent.Yeah, but I've already accepted my fate as a sacrifice for truth, so I'm just saying what I think now.

- I don't understand why sorcerer!Lottie would rather risk the whole pack's survival by doing a counter-reveal when she could just let Eönwë-Saruman die and keep laying low. Are the benefits (ie. getting a new unknown wolf) really worth the risk (Eönwë-Saruman getting lynched toDay and sorcerer!Lottie the next)? Honestly I think not. What guarantee would Lottie have that the village lynches her instead of Eönwë? It would be really bad miscalculation on her part. I don't think she's so stupid (sorry darling if you are, but then you deserve to lose. :p)
See! This is exactly what I've been saying all this time! I don't understand how people can see that as an acceptable explanation of her actions.

[Thinlómien]

Shasta
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lottie
Green
Lommy
Steve

= 9 people. 7 innocents (incl. three gifteds), 2 wolves (incl. 1 Saruman).

Coming up with a worst-case scenario:

Say we lynch an ordo toDay.
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day5 we have 5 innocents and 2 known wolves.
1) We lynch Saruman.
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day6 we have 4 innocents and 1 known wolf
-> we win
2) We lynch a regular wolf.
-> next Night a new wolf is named, no one dies
-> in the beginning of Day6 we have 4 innocents, 1 known wolf and an unknown wolf
-> we lynch the known wolf obviously
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day7, we have 3 innocents and 1 unknown wolf
-> we have very slim evidence against whoever the wolf is, a 25% chance to find them at random and barring the ranger or the hunter doing deeds of valour (if they happen to be alive) the next Night, we are screwed.

Ergo, I am not very happy about these contesting reveals at all. The wolves have pretty certainly done this maths too, and in this light, Lottie's counter-reveal makes more sense although it would still have been stupid to assume we'd rather lynch her than Eönwë.

Then again, if Shasta's the one who's lying, Greenie basically has to be Saruman. The scheme is actually quite smart. By making a fake reveal, Shasta creates a confusion in which it's easy for Greenie to hide. He manages to flush out the real seer and in the best case get an innocent (Eönwë) lynched before he goes. Thus he provides Greenie a nice chance to hide in peace until he dies, whereupon she can scry a new, totally unsuspectable wolf, so it doesn't even matter if Greenie herself falls into suspicion. I totally wouldn't put it past Shasta and Greenie to come up with a scheme like this.

Now the only problem is of course that the actual seer (Lottie) dreamt of Greenie and ruined their scheme. Incredibly bad luck! But my point is, if we believe Eönwë and Lottie are the wolves, it's their own fault they are both in the spotlight. But if Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, they intended only one of them to be in the spotlight toDay.

Ergo, wolf!Shasta and wolf!Greenie's plot would be much smarter than wolf!Eönwë and wolf!Lottie's, and in ww I rather overestimate than underestimate people.

Anyway, this maths of mine comforts me a little. If Eönwë is innocent like I would guess if I really had to choose, then there's no way it's a devious masterplan and Shasta's actually Saruman, because he and Greenie would have had no way of knowing Greenie too would be a lynch candidate.

And if Eönwë is Saruman, we are really well off. If he's a regular sorcerer and Lottie's Saruman (which absolutely makes no sense whatsoever), then we are in some trouble but the trouble's no bigger than what is sort of encoded in the rules anyway (and we can blame the moddess if we lose :p).

Ergo, I don't really care whether we lynch Eönwë or Greenie even though I believe Lottie over Shasta.


edit: xed with Eönwë

[McCaber]

++ Eonwe

I think he's more likely to be an evil wizard than not. But even if we're wrong we're not in terrible shape here.

[Coppermirror]

++Eönwë

I'm in agreement with the arguments in favour of lynching him here. And we'll be okay even if we're wrong.

[Eönwë]

Well, I suppose I might as well:

++Eonwe

[Eönwë]

Well, good luck, village.

[Loslote]

++Steve

Good Night, village. Good Night.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, I've woken back up. Anyone feel like getting me up to speed?

[Thinlómien]

++Greenie

Just to make a point.

It will hardly make me feel any more stupid if I'm wrong, and it will make me look incredibly smart if I'm right. So here we go. ;)

[satansaloser2005]

Please excuse the delay. I'm bereaved now that you've killed Steve. (Actually, I just have a terrible headache, but that too.)

Steve is, erm, excuse me, was an ordinary wizard.

Night 5 begins.

Casting:
Shasta
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCobbler
Lottie
Green
Lommy

Cast aside:
Sally (moddess)
Morsul (collateral damage)
Legate (wizard, lynched Day 1)
Dun (wizard, slain Night 2)
Holby (sorcerer, lynched Day 2)
Echo (wizard wizard, silenced Night 3)
Boro (wizard prince, lynched Day 3)
Steve (wizard, lynched Day 4)

[satansaloser2005]

After the day's events, no one could sleep. The wizards remained vigilant, staring up at the black sky as they waited, their ears searching for the slightest sound, the faintest hint that someone may be moving.

The sound they heard, however, was far from faint.

Everyone leapt to their feet, following the sound of two women screaming until they came upon Greenie and Copper . Unfortunately, they were too late.

As their friends approached, both lasses fell to the ground, their bodies limp, their hands empty. Part of Greenie's cloak had been burned away, its absence revealing a dark hand print. Copper lay beside her, her robes mussed and ripped from a struggle. She, too, bore an unnatural hand print on her body, but hers was around her neck.


Casting:
Shasta
Kath
Nerwen
McCobbler
Lottie
Lommy

Cast aside:
Sally (moddess)
Morsul (collateral damage)
Legate (wizard, lynched Day 1)
Dun (wizard, slain Night 2)
Holby (sorcerer, lynched Day 2)
Echo (wizard wizard, silenced Night 3)
Boro (wizard prince, lynched Day 3)
Steve (wizard, lynched Day 4)
Cop (killed Night 4)
Greenie (killed Night 4)

[Thinlómien]

I guess we don't really need Sally's clarification though.

Greetings to Cop who's certainly reading: have I ever told you you're freakin' awesome! That was very neat, I was thinking you're the ranger and apparently the wolves were along the same lines. Oopsie. :D

Okay I should maybe stop gloating but it's nice to 1) have a village victory because nowadays the wolves always seem to win, 2) be on the winning side and 3) be at least sometimes right about something. ;)

Any last words, Shastiekins? :Merisu:

[Kath]

Well either way, Eonwe was innocent so Shasta is a wolf.

However, MODDESS - will the narration make clear whether there was a Saruman ... erm ... thing last Night? As in, are we actually in a position where we lynch Shasta and we've won, or not?

[Loslote]

Well done, Cop! :D

++Shasta

[Nerwen]

Lottie and Steve, I owe you an apology.

++Shasta

[Nerwen]

Well either way, Eonwe was innocent so Shasta is a wolf.

However, MODDESS - will the narration make clear whether there was a Saruman ... erm ... thing last Night? As in, are we actually in a position where we lynch Shasta and we've won, or not?
It doesn’t actually say whether Saruman’s power becomes active in the case of the other wolf being taken down by the Hunter, but I think it’s implied:
Saruman has a one-shot power which allows him to add a new member to his order. He must do this when he is the only sorcerer remaining, and doing so must not cause him to automatically win the game. This person will join him at the beginning of the following phase of game play (e.g. if he selects a person during the Night, they will join him the next Dawn, whereas if he chooses them during the Day, they will join him at Dusk).
However, I also think Greenie was much more likely to have been Saruman.

[satansaloser2005]

However, I also think Greenie was much more likely to have been Saruman.

Spoilers: Even the sorcerers don't know which of them is/was Saruman.

[Loslote]

Spoilers: Even the sorcerers don't know which of them is/was Saruman.

OH.

[Thinlómien]

Spoilers: Even the sorcerers don't know which of them is/was Saruman.Are you serious? Then what about telling us if Greenie was Saruman or not?

Anyway:

++Shasta

Not sure if I'll be around still toDay, since there seem to be no pressing matters to be resolved and I'm going to hang around at my mum's for most of the day. I might pop in again closer to the deadline to see what's happening.

And honestly if the game doesn't end toDay then I will say the rules basically make it impossible for the village to win because I don't think we could have played much better (or had much better luck) - c'mon, the ranger made a save, the seer dreamt of a wolf and the hunter killed a wolf.

[McCaber]

++Shasta

I think that's really all that needs to be said.

[satansaloser2005]

Are you serious? Then what about telling us if Greenie was Saruman or not?

I'd be happy to. Greenie was not Saruman.

(Not that answering that question really answers your question, but I think you'll find I actually already answered your question in a way....and this circular sentence structure means I definitely need to find some breakfast.)

[McCaber]

Even assuming the worst and that we're dealing with an additional sleeper wolf, Lottie should have seen one innocent from toNight who didn't get turned on us. Which is a starting point at least.

[Kath]

Right well. Lets assume sally is being opaque for the sake of trying to add interest to the last Day and just go for it.

++SHASTA

[Nerwen]

Right well. Lets assume sally is being opaque for the sake of trying to add interest to the last Day and just go for it.
Well, of course there’s no way Sally is going to pass up such an opportunity to mess with our heads– but all the same, it sounds as if we must indeed have an extra wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, of course there’s no way Sally is going to pass up such an opportunity to mess with our heads– but all the same, it sounds as if we must indeed have an extra wolf.

You don't. Holby was Saruman.

[Kath]

I was asking because in the event that something happened, would the Seer know? Like, if the Seer dreamed someone who was also turned that Night would they be seen as their original innocent self or their now guilty self?

Basically I'm imagining worst case scenarios. :D

[satansaloser2005]

I'm out of the house at the moment, but, um, yeah, game over.

[Inziladun]

Nice job, village! I admit to having no clue about the wolves, though I did get a little Gifted vibe from Cop after my demise.
Speaking of which, was I taken out for any special reason? I thought when I was killed that there were surely better candidates for a no-trail kill. :rolleyes:

[McCaber]

Nice job, village! I admit to having no clue about the wolves, though I did get a little Gifted vibe from Cop after my demise.
Speaking of which, was I taken out for any special reason? I thought when I was killed that there were surely better candidates for a no-trail kill. :rolleyes:

*cough cough*

[Coppermirror]

Ahaha, I only got to take out a wolf at a time when I knew for certain who they were. :smokin:

Shasta and Greenie, why did you choose to night kill me then, knowing that I could be the Pact Mage and that I would definitely get one of you if I was?

[Loslote]

Good game, innocents! :D

I actually dreamed Cop last Night - I figured I might as well know which she was, plus, if she were turned, she could pretend she hadn't been Night-killed because the wolf was afraid she was the hunter.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ahaha, I only got to take out a wolf at a time when I knew for certain who they were. :smokin:

Shasta and Greenie, why did you choose to night kill me then, knowing that I could be the Pact Mage and that I would definitely get one of you if I was?

You were protected on the night there wasn't a kill. By our reasoning, no Ranger would be stupid enough to protect someone they knew was the Hunter, so you were clearly a self-protecting Ranger.

[Coppermirror]

You were protected on the night there wasn't a kill. By our reasoning, no Ranger would be stupid enough to protect someone they knew was the Hunter, so you were clearly a self-protecting Ranger.

Ah, I see.

The night I was protected I was hunting Eönwë, although I did actually consider making a last minute switch to Shasta. It would have been bad for the village if I'd got killed at that point.

So, who do I have to thank for making the save? Come forward, o save-making Ranger!

[Boromir88]

I would not have let Greenie go after that completely evil vote she pulled. That was eeeevilll. :p But then you folks went along with it and all I could think about after witnessing my bandwagon lynching:

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8x48ulys31r76lino1_500.jpg

(Although I understand SeerLottie's reasoning and in the end...my gameplan as an ordo is to always die at somepoint if it means the gifteds are not dying). Go village. And woot sally (nearly forgot great-bad pun on Echo :D

[Inziladun]

I think it's incredible that you all lynched useful people like Legate and Boro instead of me. Hopefully that'll be the case next time I happen to be on the other side. ;)

[Kath]

I was the Ranger. I protected Cop that Night 'cause it looked like she was going to Hunt someone I thought to be innocent. Worked out pretty well for us in the end!

[Coppermirror]

I was the Ranger. I protected Cop that Night 'cause it looked like she was going to Hunt someone I thought to be innocent. Worked out pretty well for us in the end!

I think whoever it was was probably safe from me, since at least the way I was interpreting the rules, I couldn't successfully night kill anybody who wasn't a sorcerer. But thanks for the save! It definitely worked out well. Credit goes to you for confusing the wolves and Lottie for dreaming of Greenie at the best possible time.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I think it's incredible that you all lynched useful people like Legate and Boro instead of me. Hopefully that'll be the case next time I happen to be on the other side.

Hear, hear! :)

Well, I enjoyed it while it lasted. Though as usual, or in fact, I believe this time more than usual, those who actually said I was "suspicious" were completely pulling it out of nowhere (and they even weren't Wolves). I would also like to use this opportunity to point out that I have been consistently voted out during Day 1 in several past games, and whereas it lifts the burden of bothering oneself with future analyses on next Days, it gets a bit tedious. I might consider a different approach, but I think lynching on the basis of... nothing... also plays its part. (As in, the only semi-valid argument I saw against me was "he posts things without any substance", which, of course, got me lynched as opposed to about ten other people, who did exactly the same, except they didn't, unlike me, post anything else of substance. But as we know, that's how Werewolf works. :rolleyes: )

But congrats to the village, and the Wolves too (it was going well for you folks in the beginning, but then the Gifteds started playing their best cards). It was fun to follow the game. And also, hope our first-time and long-time-no-see-players enjoyed this, and most of all, hope this game reignited the interest in WW... hint hint? ;)

[Thinlómien]

Despite being occasionally very frustrated, I actually enjoyed this game very much. It was so fun to play with you all again, it's been too long! Thanks everyone, you made it great.

The gifted did all a great job, and my hats off to the wolves too - you had some bad luck along the way.

Also, I know I shouldn't gloat, but I'm seriously impressed with myself in this game despite talking in circles, helping in getting innocent!Boro lynched and being quite certain Eönwë is the seer. ;)

[Nerwen]

I was the Ranger. I protected Cop that Night 'cause it looked like she was going to Hunt someone I thought to be innocent. Worked out pretty well for us in the end!
Oh, she was a non-logical Hunter! I missed that in Sally’s description, and I think the wolves must have too.

[Coppermirror]

Oh, she was a non-logical Hunter! I missed that in Sally’s description, and I think the wolves must have too.

No, it was a bit of both. The description says that the Pact Mage ability kicks in if they're harmed by the person they selected (or if the person selected is a sorcerer), so the only time I could have killed an innocent is if I was killed during the Day and the person I was hunting had voted for me. If I'd been hunting an innocent during the Night and I was Night killed by sorcerers, the innocent wouldn't have done me any harm, so they wouldn't have died.