Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Nerwen]

Rune

#35.
Personally I am loving the idea of empowering the dead! It seems like a very barrow-wightish thing to do, and perhaps it could evolve into a religion of sorts.

If we chose to tie the vote, I doubt that we would risk loosing data for us to analyze at a later stage. After all there is more to pack-behavior and whatnot than voting patterns.

Sorry for the shoret cameo, I will return again later.
:smokin:
Okay, so from his very first post he advocates a deliberate tie. (Is also in favour of the plan for communicating with the Dead.)

#79.
Banter (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697162&postcount=79). Contains a line about how he enjoys “killing Europeans”. This is clearly a joke in context (referring back to Agan and morm's exchange at #67, #69), but I suppose a very paranoid pack might have jumped on it.

#93.
So we are not going for a tied non-lynch today?

But rather we are going to at least attempt to get a baddie?

What a splendid idea! We all know what an incredible success rate we have on day 1, and obviously a well meaning effort always gets rewarded. Since when did sincerity become an excuse for failure?

ehm... I guess what I am trying to say, is that I still quite fancy that non-lynch thingy.

Also I will have to vote quite soon.
Stronger support than before for the non-lynch. Gets all sarcastic.

#101.
Banter (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697187&postcount=101) with Greenie. Might possibly have been taken as a hint or code of some kind. (I doubt it is, though.)

#105.

Originally Posted by Rikae
Who said anything about "good intentions"? I want people to use reasoning and intuition to vote intelligently. Day 1 too often seems like the day to lynch anyone who behaves erratically, which is, to my recollection, a really bad strategy. When we do catch a wolf based on their posts, it's usually more of a "seems fair and feels foul" situation.

I don't know if anybody used those words.

You want people to use intuition to vote intelligently?
Is there any meaningful way in which using your intuition, differentiates from reacting to erratic behaviour?
Sceptical of the possibility of “intelligent” Day One voting.

#106.

Originally Posted by Nogrod
So Form, do you suggest we'd let the baddies kill each other first and not try lynching any of them? Just sit back as sacrificial lambs and wait whether they kill us all or whether they happen to kill each other first, or whether our gifteds save the day or tell us what to do?

Playing this game kind of means we villagers play it as well - and not only those who have roles will play it.

Pathos much?
They must be having an interesting time in the Dead Thread...:D

#108.
I apologise for the successive posts.

I do really have to leave, and so will have to vote.

I can either vote Formendacil, since he volunteered, or I could vote for Greenie, since I do not care for the buddying up her and Nog is doing (also she mentioned Kant).

++Formendacil

Yup... I don't want to see Form gone, and I would be deeply saddened if this lead to his demise. Though I spoke ill about Greenie, I would hardly say that her actions merits the label "suspicious", "annoying" would be more fitting.
Second vote of the Day (first was Nilp's inevitable self-vote). It is also the only post of seven in which which he actually *says* anything, other than banter and arguing for a deliberate tie. As you
see, he expresses suspicion of Greenie and Nog, especially the former, but votes Form “because he volunteered”; stresses that he does not actually want Form lynched, and that he does not “really” suspect Greenie. This is fairly typical behaviour for a nervous Seer who has not yet dreamed a wolf and is afraid of dying early (which Rune often does) and having his words twisted after death. Taken with his jumpiness and obsession with the dangers of the lynch, I would say Rikae is likely correct that he was killed as a “gifted”. (An alternative, assuming #79 was taken as a double-bluff, was that he was killed a rival wolf.)

Further discussion points: If so, were the wolves right? And is Rik just guessing why he was killed, or does she know? (Really: it’s surprising how often a wolf will helpfully explain the reasoning behind the Night-kill…)

Edit: x'd since morm at #243; clarification; wrongly attributed opinion; highlighting.

[Firefoot]

I wrote this prior to the Day starting, but I don't think the results of the Night change anything, so I'm just leaving it and going to bed...

Okay, I’m going to try and make some sense out of a lot of half-formed thoughts and erratic notes taken by hand while perusing the Day 1 conversation on my phone.

I spent a fair amount of time thinking about the proposal to tie the vote yesterDay – who was for it, who was against it, the reasons they gave – and why either a wolf or an innocent would be interested in tying or not tying the vote. So:

Why an innocent wouldn’t want to tie: 1) Get the dead thread up and going more quickly, since it’s likely to be dominated by innocents and is a key source of knowledge in the game; 2) No chance of killing a wolf and advancing the game.

Why an innocent would want to tie: 1) Zero risk of accidentally lynching a gifted; 2) Keep the population of the village up longer; 3) Gain more information from Night 2’s activities so that lynching can be a (slightly) more educated decision.

Why a wolf would not want to tie: 1) Extremely high odds of lynching an innocent (ordo or gifted), or a wolf from another pack – since they know exactly who they want alive and dead and can steer the vote.

Why a wolf would want to tie: 1) Hide in a systemic vote – no voting patterns to trace. (This seems a lot less compelling to me than the not wanting to tie – if I was a wolf, I’d rather just have more people die. I think.)

So, that being said, the people that stand out to me as most suspicious:

loslote: Starts rather ambiguous about the idea of a tie (post #22), then becomes adamant that it is a bad idea (#48, #54, #202). Also, concern about trusting the dead thread could be construed as suspicious (since it’s likely to be a majority of innocents with some knowledge, wolves wouldn’t want to leave anything up to them) (post #28, #54).

Macalaure: Also anti-tie, which is not instantly condemning. He spends a lot of time on statistics, which could be an innocent actually being helpful or a wolf trying to look helpful without actually contributing to the discussion of who’s who – no pointing fingers, but still substantial posting (though he does make a list of his suspicions (#131)). Seems easily swayed (#168, #188) – bandwagoning? Or just confused innocent. Then at the end he seems almost gleeful about Nogrod’s death, which sat poorly with me. [Overall, I’m not convincing myself here, but earlier when I was taking notes I was getting bad vibes from his posts… so really just not sure.]

McCaber: Mostly this quote: “Any lynch is still better than no lynch in my book, so out of those who I dislike Agan has the most realistic odds of not leaving a tie.” Sorry, but no. Maybe I’m misunderstanding his meaning, but this struck me really badly.

Meh. All of this seemed a lot more substantive in my head earlier. My intuition for wolves is also notoriously bad, but hopefully this is at least a little interesting or helpful.
-----
Addendum: I definitely think the vote yesterDay bears looking into - seems very bandwagon-y to me (both Nogrod's sudden downfall and the pile-up on Agan), but I haven't had time to look into it myself.

Also, wouldn't it be funny if all three of the people in the Dead Thread were wolves? Wishful thinking, I guess...

[Firefoot]

Further discussion points: Were the wolves right? And is Rik just guessing why he was killed, or does she know? (Really: it’s surprising how often a wolf will helpfully explain the reasoning behind the Night-kill…) I was also getting some bad vibes from Rikae, but don't have any reasons or analysis to back it up yet.

[Nerwen]

I was also getting some bad vibes from Rikae, but don't have any reasons or analysis to back it up yet.
Really? I was making more of a general observation rather than saying "I think Rikae is a wolf because of this", though I suppose I could have worded it better.
Actually, if anything's raising flags for me, just based on that line of reasoning, it's this post of Macalaure's (which appeared while I was doing the Runealysis, but which I didn't read properly, or I would have included it):

Rune didn't do much, but he was, well, tense, without much reason. Could be the wolves took that as a sign of giftedness. His vote was for Formendacil, but it doesn't look like the vote was because he dreamt of him, but just because he was there. He also suspected Greenie, but again, not in a way that looks seer-ish to me. If he was gifted, then he wasn't the seer, and obviously not the hunter either. Losing ranger or lovers this early would hurt us. They're not bringing anything of value back to us at this point.
The tone of this, now, seems oddly confident of how the wolves reasoned and oddly specific. Of course one does try to look at things from the wolfish point of view, but Mac here seems to be slipping into it a little too easily for my liking.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

This is me not ordering the Dead around (like I can tell Nog, phantom, or Rune what to do), but I'd bet a pretty penny they'd uncover phantom's role toNIGHT.

Now that I think about it, Nogrod feels less evil, but more stubborn? (With the way he opposed the plan, I chuckled at the thought of leaving him in charge of the Dead thread, at least for a NIGHT.) Anyway, surely, no one can be that blatantly evil, especially in a game like this, where losing one of the Pack would put the rest under immense pressure to catch an opposing Baddie. Probably.

Of course, this line of reasoning should also exonerate Agan's fumble, but a slip of the tongue is one thing, and a determined and blatant effort to oppose something that's obviously for the village is another. It's hard to imagine someone being so glaringly evil, but a slip of the mask is still possible.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Just checking in. I've decided on a posting project today (nothing too fancy, so don't get too excited) but it's gone one in the morning and it took me far too long to even articulate this post, so I'll get to it in the morning. Night, everyone.

[A Little Green]

Well, I suppose he did ask them to kill him. :rolleyes: As for Runebug, I agree with Rikae, morm and Nerwen that the wolves might have had him down as a potential Seer with the way he seemed quite tense and the way he stressed that none of his suspicions was really a proper suspicion. Also, the exchange between Sally and morm (and others) looks very interesting, I'll get back to it in a moment. In any case, at least based on these two kills I'd say our two Wolfgangs (R.I.P. Nogrod) have very different strategies. The thing is, though, that even if they target the Seer, which they are likely to do, they won't know if they've caught him/her or not. Which means that they could spend the whole game targeting "potential Seers" (or, at least, until there's a reveal or something). Not sure how this is related to anything, but anyway.

We did have a couple of no votes. I think Gwath ( no post), Nerwen and Green...any others? I understand Day 1 can be a bit crazy but the no vote bothers me too. I suspect Gwath was busy or didn't realize it had started, so there is a pass card. However, Greenie, if I remember, came in sounded reasonable, was safe in her posts and left without a vote...odd to me.Odd to me too, I can tell you. I thought I'd go brush my teeth and then come back to vote before turning in, but instead I somehow forgot to vote and went to sleep! :o I plead being sick. Speaking of Gwath though, is he even playing? I mean, has he confirmed it? His only post in the Admin Thread was something like "I want to. I really shouldn't."

I have a ton of stuff from yesterDay and toDay I wanted to comment on, now off to check how much of it is still relevant!


EDIT: x.ed with Nilp and Shasta

[Nerwen]

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Morm's response here seems weirdly defensive. Potentially a packmate worried that, should Rune be seen as a potential wolf, they (that is, Rune and morm) might be tied together?

Of course, he might have been killed for looking like the Seer, but then why would Sally try to cover it up? Looking at his posts, the only thing I could take from it is that he definitely had not dreamt a wolf yet, since he was so adamant that we would not be able to lynch a wolf that Day. Therefore, if Sally were a wolf, she would not gain anything from trying to cover up his potential Seer gift.

All this to say, I found this post by morm to be highly suspicious.
I wouldn't put it so strongly as "highly suspicious", but eyebrow-raising, perhaps. (I mean, in *this* game, why *not* make a case against a dead man?) There was nothing in Rune's posting that would link him with morm, though. Have you seen something in morm's, or was that just a guess?

Edit:x'd with Greenie and my shining star.. Oh, darling, don't go! I miss you...

[Lalaith]

Here's something that's been bothering me since I read up on the events that occured yesterDay after I went to bed last night. (Awfully sorry about the failure to highlight, Kuru, won't happen again. :Merisu: )
Anyway, I was baffled by the lynching of Nogs as to me he seemed one of the most innocent players. So I had a close look at the events leading up to this lynching. At 1.07am (I'm going by my BST timings here) Nogs says he will vote for either Aganzir or Phantom, and makes a case against them both. At this point, there are no votes for him and just one for Agan. Legate votes for Greenie, Nogs votes for Agan and then a couple more votes keep Agan and Form in the lead.
At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.

*actually thinking about it, there is also the scenario that everyone was wrong, or various scenarios where some people are half-right! This game is crazy...

[Loslote]

I wouldn't put it so strongly as "highly suspicious", but eyebrow-raising, perhaps. (I mean, in *this* game, why *not* make a case against a dead man?) There was nothing in Rune's posting that would link him with morm, though. Have you seen something in morm's, or was that just a guess?

No, not between morm and Rune. That suggestion was an off-the-cuff guess - I hadn't gone back and checked. They don't really interact much, if at all, which leads me to believe that, if they are packmates, it is not morm himself who is implicated by Rune's death, but rather the third packmate - Greenie, maybe, if Rune decided to throw out a bit of very light wolf-on-wolf, or Form, if he really went heavily wolf-on-wolf. Now, of course, I've moved into speculation, but that would be my guess as to why morm responded to Sally the way he did.

Besides his response to Sally, though, looking through morm's posts, I found that he and Rune played a very similar game in a lot of respects. Both hung back, both cast basically throw-away votes (Rune for Form, with the intention of tying, and morm for Mac, both very early on in the game), and both chose an side on the Dead thread debate and occasionally reiterated their support of that side, without actually getting their hands dirty. I could easily see them being a pair of wolves who wanted to stay out of the spotlight.

Of course, this could (and, honestly, probably is) just be wishful thinking. I would very much like to be one wolf down with another in sight. I definitely suspect morm, but I'll take a look at other people as well to try to avoid tunnel-visioning on him.

[Aganzir]

First off I owe an apology to Lommy. Her original post doesn't look as offensive now that it's not 2 am anymore. In any case, I didn't mean to paint you as stupid or insignificant and am sorry I came across that way (I said ThinLOLmien because your long paragraph about me made actually me go "LOOOOL what the hell's she saying").

However, I still think she blew my joke way out of proportion - and in two stages too, with the initial "OMG WHAT did I just see ttyl" and then the long (given circumstances) analysis of why my reaction to morm's joke means I'm a wolf. If it had just been the former (as a way of expressing confusion) I wouldn't have raised an eyebrow, but the way she continued, she actually seemed gleeful to find something to latch on and that's really quite fishy. Her excitement about my supposed slip just looks fake.

I'm not sorry Nog was lynched, even if his level of suspiciousness is usually directly connected to how late it is here. I'm okay with Rune's death as well as he made me uneasy, but it saddens me that phants is gone. And no, wolves don't shoot for the kind of target he painted on his back (come on, the phantom saying "kill me" could be a bluff^5 or a dozen other things).

Anyway, the night kill proves one thing - phantom and Rune weren't wolves together. They had about zero interaction so knowing this does little for us, but there.

And folks, we should keep in mind that whatever goes on in the Dead Thread, timezones make it more likely that phantom has the final say - at least for toDAY. (The perks of being the only American among dead Europeans, heh heh. :smokin:)

I love that Macalaure took the trouble to consider that I might be a gifted before he decided to vote for me. He doesn't sit right with me at all.
Aganzir remains suspicious to me, which, before Nogrod started receiving votes, makes me wonder why none of her mates voted for Form. Maybe they already voted earlier, maybe they were waiting, or maybe she's not a wolf after all.
Your point being? This is a weird thing to say.

I've never played with Firefoot before so it feels daring to say this, but she feels quite innocent to me.

I'm in an all-day strategy meeting so apologies if I at any point get distracted halfway through a sentence.

[Nerwen]

Here's something that's been bothering me since I read up on the events that occured yesterDay after I went to bed last night. (Awfully sorry about the failure to highlight, Kuru, won't happen again. :Merisu: )
Anyway, I was baffled by the lynching of Nogs as to me he seemed one of the most innocent players. So I had a close look at the events leading up to this lynching. At 1.07am (I'm going by my BST timings here) Nogs says he will vote for either Aganzir or Phantom, and makes a case against them both. At this point, there are no votes for him and just one for Agan. Legate votes for Greenie, Nogs votes for Agan and then a couple more votes keep Agan and Form in the lead.
At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.

*actually thinking about it, there is also the scenario that everyone was wrong, or various scenarios where some people are half-right! This game is crazy...
Yes, the Nog-waggon looks like a response to the Agan-waggon to me, too. And yet, I'm not sure that necessarily points to her being a wolf saved by her packmates; the Agan-waggon itself seems pretty dubious to me- very forced-looking "suspicions", so I could see honest players might react to *that*. While we're here, though, how do you know both scenarios weren't right?

Edit: x'd with Lottie and Agan.

[Aganzir]

but it saddens me that phants is gone. And no, wolves don't shoot for the kind of target he painted on his back (come on, the phantom saying "kill me" could be a bluff^5 or a dozen other things).
Elaboration (see how I ended my last post :rolleyes:): I don't know if anybody is doing it seriously, but it seems lazy to suggest he was killed for saying "Kill me". I don't think he was killed for looking like the seer (although putting me on the top of his innocent list made me wonder at the time :smokin:) but rather for being a dangerous player with good plans.

I kind of feel good about sally too (shocking I know!). I'm not sure she would have supported a no-lynch if she's a wolf, and most of all I can't see wolf sally voting to save me, knowing our history.

I find it unlikely we saw any wolf-on-wolfing (within a pack) yesterday. Now that lynch results are not immediate (and we can never find out every player's role anyway, even in the Dead thread, there are just too many deaths), it just doesn't make sense to make yourself "look better" by suspecting a fellow, especially as you can also spend your time genuinely hunting for other wolves. If there is wolf-on-wolfing, I think its goal is to sow very minor doubts to keep the other pack off your fellow's neck.
However, being careful to distance yourself from your fellows may come naturally to many players even when it's not necessary - I remember my fate in Duelling Wizards 2 being sealed by a packmate's vote, while to all intents and purposes they could've saved me without looking worse for it as the village had no idea we even knew of each other.

[Thinlómien]

First off -

Rune and the phantom? Interesting. I have nothing much to add as of yet, and no idea what to make of the phantom's successful request to be killed. (Maybe the wolves thought he's the hunter and decided to take the risk now that it's statistically the lowest? But would the phantom as a hunter really do that on Day1? Or would the wolves think he would?)

Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.

Rune, then, was notably short-tempered yesterDay. I agree with Rikae that this could have been read as a sign of a nervous gifted, and indeed knowing Rune I think it's possible he was. Then again he is quite grumpy by nature :D and the overwhelming rules hardly seemed to make him happy.

About Nogrod - well, as I was going to bed yesterDay before the DL, I was starting to think him more and more suspicious, mostly because of his "let's lynch the phantom" meme but in retrospect I don't really know. Nogrod is quite a typical Day1 lynch and not because he'd be a wolf awfully often, so I can see the village reacting quite knee-jerkily to him again. I guess the bottom line is that a little rereading wouldn't hurt me.

Just have to add my voice to the choir of "I'd love to see the dead thread now" with Nog and the phantom arguing and/or coming up with a master plan and Rune's head exploding. :D *waves*

At work now, but once I can slack a little more I'll be back to comment posts from late yesterDay and early toDay...


edit: xed with Agan's latter post

[Nerwen]

I find it unlikely we saw any wolf-on-wolfing (within a pack) yesterday. Now that lynch results are not immediate (and we can never find out every player's role anyway, even in the Dead thread, there are just too many deaths), it just doesn't make sense to make yourself "look better" by suspecting a fellow, especially as you can also spend your time genuinely hunting for other wolves. If there is wolf-on-wolfing, I think its goal is to sow very minor doubts to keep the other pack off your fellow's neck.
However, being careful to distance yourself from your fellows may come naturally to many players even when it's not necessary - I remember my fate in Duelling Wizards 2 being sealed by a packmate's vote, while to all intents and purposes they could've saved me without looking worse for it as the village had no idea we even knew of each other.
I'm wondering about that myself- I'm reading through yesterDay and there are interactions that *look* like "normal" wolf-on-wolfing- morm's with Mac, for example, and also Rune's vote-post could be read that way (c.f. Lottie above), and yet there probably isn't much point to it in this game. But as you say, it might be habit.
.Edit:x'd with Lommy.

[A Little Green]

I still have doubts about one thing regarding the scheme of agreeing signals for the Dead Thread vote (as in, empower X if Z was guilty, empower Y if Z was innocent, and so on). There was talk about putting choices for the dead "in different bandwagons" for increased flexibility, which I think is absolutely necessary for something like this to work. I am doubtful about the timing, however. In order for this to work, the living would have to have more or less voted first for there to be any "wagons" to place the choices for the dead in. At the same time, Agan's hypothetical point about Europeans in the Dead Thread was a valid one (especially as, at present, we do seem to have a European majority there): the deadline is 5 AM Finnish time, an hour or two less for the Danes and Brits and whoever else. Which means that European dead people can't really be expected to be around to wait for the village's instructions on which people in which wagons they should cast their votes to in order to relay a message. Can we realistically expect the village to (at least almost) finish voting hours before the deadline? Or would the dead leave their voting entirely in the hands of whoever of them happened to be around at deadline, whether wolf or not?

Third: the dead thread will be confusing as well. With three possible deaths per day/night -cycle and them being able to check only one during the same interval there will be more unknowns than known people in there (as the Night-kills aren't automatically innocents).Also this.

Then to Agan and Lommy's spat. First, we should bear in mind that those two are old friends and thus very good at annoying each other, and it was absurd o'clock at night so both were probably tired, too. I'm saying this because I think why it escalated had as much to do with these two factors as with werewolf. That isn't to say there wasn't other stuff going on too, though.

Basically, the whole thing started with this post by Agan:
Agan, what are you suggesting here :D.
"We" obviously as in "us villagers", not as in "me and my wolf pack", duh! ;)This relating to her earlier "if we only kill Europeans" line. Lommy's argument is as follows:

This still exchange related to this post by Agan sounds rather fishy to me. So, as I read it, Agan is playing with scenarios and makes a joking example of the village only killing (= lynching) Europeans. Morm makes fun of her by implying she actually suggested doing that (since she's European herself, it's kind of double crazy idea). Agan misunderstands that morm is (half-jokingly) calling her out on saying "killing" instead of "lynching", which would imply she's one of the wolves (the term "killing" usually referring to Night kills) and she continues the joke from that angle. Basically I find it curious that Agan would interpret morm's comments in a way that would lead her to make a joking clarification about not making a Freudian slip about being a wolf. Like, I don't know why an innocent player would look at morm's comment from that angle. (Morm please clarify if I'm the one misreading your comment to Agan.)So Lommy wasn't saying Agan's "me and my wolf pack" was a slip (which would be a stupid argument) but rather that her interpretation of morm's comment suggests a wolfish perspective. To which Agan reacts with these:
ThinLOLmien is back! So I'm, what, your second oldest friend and suddenly you don't understand why I'd look at something from the villain's point of view? I understood morm's meaning perfectly and chose to continue the joke as I did because it's fun and joking about being a wolf is the closest I can get to being one.

Seriously though, just what would a wolf gain from saying "Hello I'm a wolf" when it would lead the other pack straight to her door? I'd imagine in a game like this, they will go to lengths to look as ordinary as possible, and I just don't understand why you think I'd have reacted like that as a wolf. Granted I'm tired but your trigger-happy jump is so poorly reasoned it genuinely annoys me and gives you a free ride to the top of my suspect list.
++Lommy

She saw a straw and grasped at it.

Her village spokesperson idea was decent but I'm partly kind of offended that she chose to question my intelligence by holding a joke against me and partly suspicious of her "ERMAHGERD SLIP!!!111 Did ya see a SLIP!!!111" approach which would probably feel forced to me even if it wasn't about me.

I'm still in favour of the no-lynch, but I wouldn't mind seeing Lommy bite the dust.This seems like a very strong reaction to an argument that may or may not have been correct but was, at least by Day 1 standards, decently reasoned. The question is, though, whether all of it can be attributed to Agan being tired and having a temper. It is also unclear whether she mistook Lommy's meaning or whether she presented it in that light to make the case look shoddier than it was - for Lommy wasn't suspecting Agan because of the "me and my wolf pack" but because of her interpretation of morm's comment.

Lommy starts getting annoyed too, and to be fair I can't really blame her:
1) I dislike my I'm-not-taking-myself-too-seriously personality being used as a way to discredit my arguments (like, I may be chatty and benevolent and a bit of a clown, but it doesn't mean I'm stupid and you know it and you're trying to use it to your advantage by framing this as "silly Lommy is being silly again" and that irks me)

2) I didn't suggest you intentionally said "hello I'm a wolf" (even though - now that you played the "why would a wolf say that" card I might reconsider...), I suggest you made a Freudian slip of sorts by accidentally revealing your wolvish perspective. And that has absolutely nothing to do with whether you fancy being a villain or not.

3) Well, you also cemented your - rather whimsically assigned; it was the typical Day1 level of reasoning - place on the top of my suspicion list by being so defensive. If you were innocent, you wouldn't be half as annoyed by me remarking on your wolvish perspective, and I suspect you're just enjoying your wolfing in this game with a nice pack and even the tiniest prospect that your enjoyment might be cut short both makes you fight back and gets on your nerves because you dislike being "busted" on something so trivial, especially if you indeed intentionally chose to comment on morm's joke from that angle and I was accusing you on the wrong grounds.

++AganPossible interpretations, then? Wolf-on-wolf? Not likely. They got too genuinely angry with each other, and besides, I don't think an open fight with a packmate would be a sensible strategy in this game, at this point. Wolf-on-wolf between wolves from different packs? Possible. Innocent-on-innocent? Sadly also possible. Wolf and innocent? If one of these two is a wolf I think Agan is a likelier candidate. Lommy started with an argument against Agan, then got offended by the belittling way Agan talked about her. (This might happen with Lommy whatever her role so I don't think it tells us much about her alignment.) Agan, meanwhile, got offended by being suspected on what she thought were flimsy grounds - which, while annoying, shouldn't provoke a reaction quite that strong. I also agree with Cabbie and Shasta that Agan's retaliatory suspicion of Lommy looks a bit off. Of course it's possible that an innocent Agan mixed personal feelings with suspicion (that does happen), but I don't know if she would really fall into that trap. However, trying to turn a personal quarrel into something other players could latch onto is something an Aganwolf might want to do.

Another thing - wolves have no more reason to grasp at straws in this game than anyone else. A wolf making up a case just to look like they're suspecting somebody doesn't make sense because they, too, need to hunt wolves. And as for genuinely making a case on (too) little evidence, that can be done by wolves and innocents alike. Therefore, "she's grasping at straws" isn't a very strong argument against anyone in this game.

Aside from the "tie or not to tie" discussion and so on, of the moments that "stood out", the only weird thing about the Agan-Morm exchange to me was Greenie's reaction to it, "defensive" one:
I don't smell Freud as much as a trolling Agan. Admittedly, I took morm's "Agan, what are you suggesting here" as not a reference to her use of "we" but to her hypothesis of the Dead Thread only being populated by Europeans, and in that regard her reply doesn't really make sense. That doesn't equal Freud-odor, though.
Just kinda defensive, because I think it seemed pretty clear that it was not meant the way Greenie is interpreting it???You lost me here, Legate. Defensive of what? It was not meant in what way?

Greenie - just too happy with too many smileys at some point; she had reasonable points, but she is not stupid. I have no idea what to make of the comment to Agan I mentioned above, although now it seems to me like that was rather random. But that's just the sauce; bottom line being, her "I am the nice clever helpful girl next door" attitude is sort of making me wonder whether it is genuine. Probably one of my choices for vote toDay.Awesome, can I now join the esteemed club of people who get suspected for their use of smileys? Also, "she had reasonable points, but she is not stupid" is probably the best thing anyone's ever said about me. Seriously though, all I can say is that suspecting me because I act nice is rather like suspecting you because you write long, confusing posts. Oh wait. I've actually seen people do that. :rolleyes:


EDIT: x-ed since my last. Writing a novel takes ages! I think I understand George R. R. Martin better now.

[McCaber]

So do we want to try some measure of phantom's communication plan toDay, or hold off until they might know someone's role and try again toMorrow? The exact message might have to wait until we have some votes in our own thread for us to see what our potential options are.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

So do we want to try some measure of phantom's communication plan toDay, or hold off until they might know someone's role and try again toMorrow? The exact message might have to wait until we have some votes in our own thread for us to see what our potential options are.Nothing to communicate yet. They've gained quorum just toDAY (three Dead people) and will start scrying people only toNIGHT.

[A Little Green]

OK, Sally, morm and Lottie, possibly the most interesting thing to have happened toDay this far. Basically, Sally suspects Rune (R.I.P.) and concludes her analysis of him with a suggestion that he was killed as a potential member of a rival wolf pack. Morm thinks this is an odd conclusion and says it's more likely Rune was killed as a potential Seer, and suggests that Sally might be a wolf trying to distract us from this conclusion. Lottie thinks Sally's theory is not far-fetched and that morm's response is suspicious, and goes on to speculate that morm and Rune might be fellow wolves together with Formy or myself. That's about it, right?

First off, I agree with morm in that Sally's conclusion is odd. I'm not saying Rune can't be a wolf, of course he can, but he didn't, at least to me, seem any more suspicious than twenty-something other people. This is especially true with regard to the reasons why Sally found him suspicious: that he supported the no-lynch scheme (which is true for about half the village) and that he voted Form without wanting him to die (which is logical since he wanted a tie with no lynch, had to vote early and Form had volunteered). In fact, Sally's post seems like an odd mix of "this is why I suspect Rune" and "this is why he was Night-killed".

At the same time, Lottie is right in that a Sallywolf wouldn't have much to gain in trying to cover up Rune's potential Seerishness like morm suggested since it is rather obvious that if Rune was the Seer he hadn't dreamed a wolf yet. That said, Lottie's equation of "morm's argument doesn't make sense" and "morm is highly suspicious" is also rather odd.

My main qualm with Sally's theory is that I don't find her case against Rune particularly convincing, and I think it's unlikely the wolves spotted the same things she did, drew the same conclusions, and were convinced enough to use their kill on it. Unless, of course, Sally is a wolf and just now fell for the classic wolf mistake of explaining what really happened at Night.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

But it addresses the Night and stuff early toDay, so that it's neatly together.

So, basic ideas: the phantom would simply be killed because. just because. I mean, I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!! But, if tp is not a member of your pack, you probably consider him dangerous whichever the case. Imagine. If he is a Seer, you want him dead, if he is a Wolf of the opposite pack, you totally want him dead as well. And in fact, with the "kill me" encouragement, the WWs might have thought him a Hunter and wanted to get rid of him early on (especially if they felt safe from him??? Anyway, I think this is already a stretch, but simply put, there are like a million reasons to kill the Phantom).

Rune is of course more interesting question, I have also rearead his posts, I'll get to it in a sec.

But first - by the way. Let us bear one thing in mind. The pack that killed Rune might have contained the phantom (and vice versa. By the way what is it that makes it fairly automatic to assume Rune wasn't a Wolf? I mean, nobody much would think of it by default, right, whereas with tp it at least crosses people's minds?).

Speaking of that, given that there was the possibility that both packs might have targeted tp if he was innocent - I mean, really! Look at it, and he actually was targeted by one pack, and I think we are clear on that there are plenty of reasons to want to kill him, so the other pack might have considered it as well, and it simply didn't for some reason. - anyway, given that possibility, I would consider tp being part of one of the packs. At least it's an extra reason, even though of course different Wolves might think differently etc etc.

Rune didn't do much, but he was, well, tense, without much reason. Could be the wolves took that as a sign of giftedness. His vote was for Formendacil, but it doesn't look like the vote was because he dreamt of him, but just because he was there. He also suspected Greenie, but again, not in a way that looks seer-ish to me. If he was gifted, then he wasn't the seer, and obviously not the hunter either. Losing ranger or lovers this early would hurt us. They're not bringing anything of value back to us at this point.
Who knows. Regarding the Greenie thing, that actually interests me, since I am still fairly suspicious of her (also after seeing her post toDay, see below). If Greenie was a Wolf, and her pack thought Rune a Seer, I'd say it would be a good reason for killing: the Form vote from Rune might have been interpreted in any way, but the WWs could think that Rune is about to dream her, which would be a brilliant reason (stopping the Seer kind of unconspiciously before he can do the actual harm, also, because the theoretical suspicion would be fairly unclear, it would be a good kill as it wouldn't leave so good tracks pointing at Greenie). Lot of speculation to be sure, but working with all the possibilities and the little info we have.

Form giving himself the third vote makes it very unlikely that he's gifted (I think I may say this much openly), but I also think it makes it unlikely for him to be a wolf. Very risky move there, and without any pressure.
Generally agreed. Makes sense.

Aganzir remains suspicious to me, which, before Nogrod started receiving votes, makes me wonder why none of her mates voted for Form. Maybe they already voted earlier, maybe they were waiting, or maybe she's not a wolf after all.

In any case, I think the early Nogrod voters are actually quite innocent-looking at the moment (yes, I know, wolves hunt wolves in this game). There were simply easier targets available to them at that point.

I'm grasping straws a little. :rolleyes:
You are, here. One thing is also that I am not sure how much would WWs try to save a fellow by a bandwagon in this game in such a visible manner. The danger is you get spotted by both the village and the other pack. Of course they would probably try to save the comrades, but probably in as unconspicuous way as possible. The village is still big and they have to last long.

Same for painting the Nog votes as innocent - there are always easy targets. But, to be sure, there is something to what you are saying, there probably would be at least one baddie among the Nog voters - regardless of Nog's actual role and the role of the bandwagon. Just too good a bandwagon to pass, and I would even imagine a baddie somewhere among the earlier voters. I will want to take a look at the voters, actually, and try to think something about them.



A very odd conclusion. I would imagine that the wolves would be much more concerned about getting the Seer early on as that is their greatest threat, it's what I would do. You are trying to make a case against a dead man, why? If anything, I would imagine that the wolves thought Rune was the Seer and now a Sallywolf is attempting to have us think differently. Sorry for no bolding, I'm using my phone and it's past bedtime. Goodnight
Agreed with Morm here, sally's post did not really make much sense there. Not sure if I'd think of her being a WW immediately, but it is weird.

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Morm's response here seems weirdly defensive. Potentially a packmate worried that, should Rune be seen as a potential wolf, they (that is, Rune and morm) might be tied together?
Although this is weirder, to be honest. I don't understand what would be "weirdly defensive" about morm's post. If you said "weirdly offensive" (towards sally), then perhaps. This looks defensive to me, to be honest - you being defensive of sally. Alarm flashes a bit.

Well, I suppose he did ask them to kill him. :rolleyes: As for Runebug, I agree with Rikae, morm and Nerwen that the wolves might have had him down as a potential Seer with the way he seemed quite tense and the way he stressed that none of his suspicions was really a proper suspicion. Also, the exchange between Sally and morm (and others) looks very interesting, I'll get back to it in a moment. In any case, at least based on these two kills I'd say our two Wolfgangs (R.I.P. Nogrod) have very different strategies. The thing is, though, that even if they target the Seer, which they are likely to do, they won't know if they've caught him/her or not. Which means that they could spend the whole game targeting "potential Seers" (or, at least, until there's a reveal or something). Not sure how this is related to anything, but anyway.

Okay, here we get to the thing I mentioned above: this post again has horribly fishy tone. Especially the "by the way sally morm are weird, nudge nudge?" like these classic casual remarks Wolves do in order to nudge others to lynch people. In any case (to put it positively), it should be clear that at least one, and maybe neither of those isn't in a pack with Greenie if she is a Wolf.

At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.
Good points there, Agan also came back very humbly after yesterDay's end, which could also be that now she would like it to be swept under the rug now that she had managed to survive it. But with all that, I am not sure if a WolfAgan would act that way at all. Also what I said about bandwagoning, not sure if the WWs would be that obviously saving a mate. But yeah.

Yes, the Nog-waggon looks like a response to the Agan-waggon to me, too. And yet, I'm not sure that necessarily points to her being a wolf saved by her packmates; the Agan-waggon itself seems pretty dubious to me- very forced-looking "suspicions", so I could see honest players might react to *that*. While we're here, though, how do you know both scenarios weren't right?
Actually it would be interesting to rather think of both wagons as some baddie-orchestrated nonsense, not necessarily to save anyone, but just to wreak havoc, too. But anyway, have to think about it more still.

First off -

Rune and the phantom? Interesting. I have nothing much to add as of yet, and no idea what to make of the phantom's successful request to be killed. (Maybe the wolves thought he's the hunter and decided to take the risk now that it's statistically the lowest? But would the phantom as a hunter really do that on Day1? Or would the wolves think he would?)
Yep, the hunter thing - exactly what I thought as well. I really think it might be a plausible reason.

Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.
That's what I thought yesterDay; that he is possibly an ordo. But then exactly the question is: if the WWs thought it as well, and knew about him sacrificing himself happily and so on, would they kill him? But maybe the added value of having a "cleaner thread" would have been better? But no, WWs could probably actually benefit from messier thread - in the beginning, that is; not later when everything you say will be brought against you and the more people there are, the more you say, by default, since you have to interact with more people (but also hide better in the crowd and do not have to interact with everyone, which is a great advantage). Hm, whatever, I think that depends a lot on what kind of Wolves we are talking about. Once we'd learn the identity of some WWs, we could speculate whether a pack containing this or that person would kill the phantom... but at that point, not sure if it will be relevant anymore (except if by that time we are still struggling with knowing the roles of all the people concerned).

About Nogrod - well, as I was going to bed yesterDay before the DL, I was starting to think him more and more suspicious, mostly because of his "let's lynch the phantom" meme but in retrospect I don't really know. Nogrod is quite a typical Day1 lynch and not because he'd be a wolf awfully often, so I can see the village reacting quite knee-jerkily to him again. I guess the bottom line is that a little rereading wouldn't hurt me.
I actually also started thinking Nog was pressing the phantom kill a bit too much. But hard to say. Well he's dead now, we should probably shift focus again mainly on the living, until we have a more solid info about what is happening.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy and all

[Thinlómien]

Can someone start at the beginning and explain why Agan is suspicious? I just skimmed over the exchange and it looks like she's suspected because she made a joke, and then she is further suspected because she didn't like being suspected for making a joke. Is that accurate or am I missing something?
What I got is she used the word "kill" instead of "lynch," and morm half-jokingly asked her if that was a Freudian slip, because a wolf would likely see the "lynch" from the POV as "killing."
I didn't read Agan's response carefully enough, but Lommy interpreted her reaction to it as even worse than an innocent Freudian slip.
Okay, for the last time, let's recapitulate since people seem to be confused by this and think it was "out of proportion" (really? it was Day1? of course all suspicion is "out of proportion"!):

1. Agan uses the village "killing" all Europeans as an example of something.
2. Morm makes fun of her for suggesting we lynch the Europeans (herself thus included).
3. Agan replies to morm by making a joke that she used the word "kill" (instead of "lynch") because she's a wolf and it was a Freudian slip.
4. I find it fishy that Agan interpreted morm's comment as a half-joking questioning of her supposedly wolfy wording (which didn't look wolfy to me in the first place) instead of reading it the same way I did ie that he's making fun of her for wanting the Europeans dead.
5. Tired Agan gets angry because she thinks I think she's stupid and thinks I'm suspicious and grasping at straws, votes for me.
6. I find her overt defensiveness far more condemning than her initial wolvish-ish way of reading morm's comment and vote for her. And yes to be fair I also got angry because I thought the way she was trying to undermine my initial point was offensive and implying I was stupid.

So, as a summary: I wasn't suspicious of Agan because she made a Freudian slip, but because she acted as if she had made one when no one else thought so, and later because she became so defensive over it. I still think that's one of the most substantial grounds for suspicion/voting someone yesterDay.

Furthermore, the only two "weird" things about our mutual suspicion/ argument yesterDay (to me) are:
1) Agan getting over the top defensive
2) us both getting angry at each other for which was silly

First off I owe an apology to Lommy. Her original post doesn't look as offensive now that it's not 2 am anymore. In any case, I didn't mean to paint you as stupid or insignificant and am sorry I came across that way (I said ThinLOLmien because your long paragraph about me made actually me go "LOOOOL what the hell's she saying").Apology accepted!

However, I still think she blew my joke way out of proportion - and in two stages too, with the initial "OMG WHAT did I just see ttyl" and then the long (given circumstances) analysis of why my reaction to morm's joke means I'm a wolf. If it had just been the former (as a way of expressing confusion) I wouldn't have raised an eyebrow, but the way she continued, she actually seemed gleeful to find something to latch on and that's really quite fishy.Okay, the two stages was 1) adding a hurried note about a cross-post because it seriously baffled me and I had not time to look at it more then and 2) rereading it later to check if it really was something. Also I freely admit part of the reason for writing "omg what's Agan saying was that a slip" when not having time to think it through was to fish for a reaction - which I did, interestingly enough, get from Greenie who defended you.

With the risk of beating a dead horse, I still think you wouldn't have made that joke as an innocent because it simply wouldn't have occurred to you, and even if I'm wrong about that, had you been innocent, I'm sure you could have explained yourself more calmly instead of going for a full-blown counter-attack.

I hope this clarifies where I'm coming from to everyone.

~*~

He did suspect four people in #130: Nogrod, Loslote, Firefoot, and me. His innocent list contains exactly four people as well, interestingly. If he was the seer, he would have left some hidden hint as to which two of those four people were actually guilty.It's possible it's all in the wording. I think I may want to check his posts for myself to get an idea - even though, if there's something that looks like he might have seer dreamed someone as innocent, for example, and we assume the wolves latched on it, it's still not exactly super helpful because the person the phantom would've talked about could still be part of the other wolf pack.

Now that I'm thinking about the Night kills, I also think killing the phantom might have had no reason except "this will keep 'em talking".

By the way I notice I keep assuming the Night killed people were innocent, and we can't really know that. But looking for wolf matey connections between them and the living is as random as haphazardly choosing to analyze the connections of a living person. Agh. I'm starting to think there's two ways to proceed in this game: analyzing everything twice as carefully as usual to try to make up for the missing information OR going only by your gut and whatever small things you notice in other people's behaviour. The first option sounds more productive but also way more time consuming...

Why a wolf would want to tie: 1) Hide in a systemic vote – no voting patterns to trace. (This seems a lot less compelling to me than the not wanting to tie – if I was a wolf, I’d rather just have more people die. I think.)What about not getting herself or a packmate lynched. I seriously think the wolves would be more concerned about that than the average ordo would be about lynching a gifted. Like, ordos may be rationally concerned about lynching a gifted, but the wolves would be emotionally concerned about themselves or their packmates dying, and I think everybody has some emotional motivation behind their actions while not everybody has rational motivation behind their actions as well. Okay, wow, that sounded pretty mean, but I hope you see what I mean. :D Also to clarify, I definitely don't think it's irrational for an ordo to prefer a lynch to a tie (quite the contrary anyway but that's not related), I'm only saying an ordo supporting a tie to protect the gifted probably has a rational reasoning behind it while a wolf supporting a tie might just have an emotional reasoning for playing it safe, and since I find emotional reasoning more common in this game than ice cold logic, I definitely don't think it's unsuspicious to want a tie.

Which means that they could spend the whole game targeting "potential Seers" (or, at least, until there's a reveal or something). Not sure how this is related to anything, but anyway....which should leave a nice trail? Good point. And that means they either have to give the seer dangerously much leeway or keep leaving trails. This is actually the first positive thing anyone has pointed out about the rules of this game! (Sorry dear Mod, I'm enjoying this game nevertheless, don't worry.)

Odd to me too, I can tell you. I thought I'd go brush my teeth and then come back to vote before turning in, but instead I somehow forgot to vote and went to sleep!I KNEW THAT. (For the record, she's done this before, once worrying Nogrod to death as she had said she'll be back to vote in a minute, and then she didn't come back at all and wasn't answering her phone either. Well, turns out she had forgotten to vote, switched her phone off and gone to sleep.)

Next up (who knows when though): a better look at the tally and possibly a look at the phantom's (and Rune's?) posts.

PS. For anyone who wants to have a laugh on the expense of dead people (very crass I know ;)):
I mean I'm happy to go to the Dead Thread as I have nothing to worry (if I'm lynched no gifted is lynched - and lynching a wolf is anyway a remarkable deed - so an innocent goes every now and then) and I think an innocent tp would think the same as well. But he clearly doesn't - and that's why I suspect him.

Also really curious to see what's going to happen seeing as Nogrod was very strongly against the living dictating anything to the dead, and the phantom was very strongly for it.


edit: xed with everyone - where did you guys come from? - and added a space (yes you can lynch me for editing my posts now :p)

[Thinlómien]

But maybe the added value of having a "cleaner thread" would have been better?Great, now I'm imagining one of the wolf packs consisting of people who get headache from scheming loudmouths and killing tp just because he irked them. :D

Also I see Greenie basically explained the me-Agan exchange yesterDay in almost exactly the same way as I did above. This warms my heart (someone understands me!) but combined with her original defense of Agan's slip/joke/you-know-what-I'm-talking-about also leaves me with no idea of what to think of her.

[Aganzir]

Maybe the wolves thought he's the hunter and decided to take the risk now that it's statistically the lowest?
Oooor what if both packs targeted the phantom who was the Hunter and Rune his pick? :smokin:

[Nerwen]

Great, now I'm imagining one of the wolf packs consisting of people who get headache from scheming loudmouths and killing tp just because he irked them. :D
Believe me, that was the first thing that crossed my mind toDay;). And really, I don't even *have* a theory about tp's death yet. The idea of reading through his approximately 3 x 10^9 posts is... daunting...

By the way, though, what did you mean by saying he was probably an ordo "in hindsight"?

[A Little Green]

Also I see Greenie basically explained the me-Agan exchange yesterDay in almost exactly the same way as I did above. This warms my heart (someone understands me!) but combined with her original defense of Agan's slip/joke/you-know-what-I'm-talking-about also leaves me with no idea of what to think of her. I didn't defend Agan as much as not see a slip there. Remember, by that point you hadn't made your case yet, you just said you smelled Freud. I didn't see the connection between her misinterpretation (?) of morm's comment and her possible wolfishness, and thus I thought you were referring to the "me and my wolf pack hee hee" and I didn't think that qualified as Freudian. After you presented your theory I could sort of see where you came from, and whether the theory was right or not I thought Agan's reaction to it was suspicious. Does this help?


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Just posting the sort of analysis of yesterDay's votes I thought I might make...

(I copied the list from morm's post, so I really hope it's correct!)

Nilp -> Nilp
Rune -> Formendacil
Mormegil -> Macalaure
Lalaith -> Legate
Kath -> Formendacil 2
Aganzir -> Lommy
Lommy -> Aganzir
Legate -> A Little Green
Nogrod -> Aganzir 2
Form -> Form 3
Mith -> Agan 3
McCaber -> Agan 4
Firefoot -> Gwath
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Lommy 2
Mac -> Agan 5
TP -> Nog 2
Lottie -> Nog 3
Eomer -> Nog 4
Shasta -> Nog 5
Sally -> Nog 6

First thing to note, if we were talking about Aganwagon and Nogwagon appearing, there was, in fact, also already a sort of Formwagon. With that said that Form's self-vote seemed really dangerous to him, so I don't expect him to be a Wolf. Aganwagon was pushed forward most of all by the votes of Nog and Mith, and in both cases I am kind of dubious as to whether they would be doing it out of Wolfish intent. (There was the whole debate about who to vote going on at that time. Nog could be the one out of the two I'd rather suspect of Wolfy intention, given that he was earlier also testing the water with voting the phantom and all, but then again, even as innocent he would simply have ran out of options.) McCaber is more or less what would be the nail in the coffin if the vote had been successful, along with Mac.

There is the - for now, I'd say absolutely unlikely - possibility that Mac and Form are packmates and Macwolf was saving Formwolf and toDay again in the post earlier on where he was also saying he isn't likely to be Wolf (on logical grounds). But it would have to be really, really bold play from Form to vote himself at that moment if he were a Wolf, of course unless he were sure that e.g. Mac and maybe somebody else are going to save him etc. But this possibility I am mentioning rather just in case there are some revelations in the future which would suddenly e.g. show that Form might be a Wolf.

Back to the main topic: To be sure, the final push for the Nogwagon looks fishy by itself: all the people basically jumped up (or rather, down, since I have the red zone as the last) my list, because I would be really surprised if at least one Wolf didn't hide there. Statistically, I'd guess at least two, maybe even from different packs, especially if Nog is innocent (in that case, I'd easily imagine e.g. 2 and 1 Wolves voting there, or somesuch).

Effectively, based purely on votes, I'd be most curious about McCaber, Macalaure, and then the bunch of Nog-voters. Given that we don't know almost anything (like what role Nog actually is and all), can't really operate well on this. But just a way to sort out people in my head again in some different manner.

Probably will have to go now for the time being, but will post more later, obviously...

[Nerwen]

Oooor what if both packs targeted the phantom who was the Hunter and Rune his pick? :smokin:

Well, it's possible, though the narration says they were both "mauled", which sounds more like a wolf-kill.

[Mithalwen]

Oh lawks. I hope I stay alive a bit longer: it will be like Huis Clos in the DeadFred with the two uber egos there .... even if the handsome young party goer is also resident...

Need to read .... still can't quite get over so much happening just as I succumbed to sleep .....

[Thinlómien]

Oooor what if both packs targeted the phantom who was the Hunter and Rune his pick?Or what if both packs targeted Rune who happened to be the hunter and was targeting the phantom for laying the groundwork for impersonating the hunter later on? :eek: ;)

By the way, though, what did you mean by saying he was probably an ordo "in hindsight"?Just that now he's dead he seems like an ordo to me, while when he was alive, I was more unsure. Does this make sense? I'm not sure that's legit though, as like I said, I'm so used to only innocent being Night killed that this game seems to mess with my head even more than I thought. I found Sally's case against Dead Son of Bjarne really absurd too until I remembered we have absolutely no idea of his role whatsoever thanks to the nature of this particular game.

I didn't defend Agan as much as not see a slip there. Remember, by that point you hadn't made your case yet, you just said you smelled Freud. I didn't see the connection between her misinterpretation (?) of morm's comment and her possible wolfishness, and thus I thought you were referring to the "me and my wolf pack hee hee" and I didn't think that qualified as Freudian. After you presented your theory I could sort of see where you came from, and whether the theory was right or not I thought Agan's reaction to it was suspicious. Does this help?Fair enough. I guess "I smell Freud" wasn't the best phrasing from my part either, but it just sounded funny in my head.

[Firefoot]

I only have about five minutes to post right now, so sorry I can't be more helpful with quotes and references.

I was looking at the way the Nogrod bandwagon developed and it's really quite odd. Both phantom and B88 mention suspicions of him back on page 4, which is where Nogrod started gaining suspicion, but still most people were somewhere in between "maybe suspicious but not gonna vote for him" and "seems ok" with their read on him. The people who voted for him are mostly really conspicuously absent from that discussion (they weren't posting at all though so it could be a timezone/timing thing). That makes Lottie, Eomer, Shasta, and Satan all potentially suspicious to me - at least worthy of a closer look.

Also, finally realized now that Lottie is loslote. :rolleyes: And given that, she also mentions a suspicion of Nogrod on page 5 before the voting really gets going.

[Macalaure]

Writing stuff down as I go through the early day posting.

There's something odd going on in #247,248,250:
First, Sally suggests Rune might have been a wolf killed by the other wolves. I'm not following her reasoning really. Also, I don't think that's their priority yet.
Then Morm is all over it for this reason, which is ok, but also because she's "trying to make a case against a dead man". How else are we going to figure something out at this point before we get any evidence back from the dead?
Then Lottie is all over morm for being "weirdly defensive", making him highly suspicious. I get criticizing him, but that's too quick over too little.

...aaand then Greenie mentions the exact same thing, just more eloquently. Well, actually not the exact same thing, since I'm raising half an eyebrow at morm, too.


Firefoot, I really don't think you can base any suspicions on whether people wanted a tied vote or not. I mean, you yourself give reason why both goodies and baddies could be for or against it.

He spends a lot of time on statistics, which could be an innocent actually being helpful or a wolf trying to look helpful without actually contributing to the discussion of who’s who
I'll gladly admit that I wasn't actually helpful yet at that point. I even admitted it yesterDay. It was early-ish Day1, and a good part of the village hadn't even posted yet.

Seems easily swayed (#168, #188) – bandwagoning? Or just confused innocent.
Because I read what other people post and it changes my opinion of them? Shocker...


Then at the end he seems almost gleeful about Nogrod’s death, which sat poorly with me.
I wasn't gleeful. I feel genuinely bad for the man. :D In the last dead thread -type game, he was lynched right away early on, too.

The tone of this, now, seems oddly confident of how the wolves reasoned and oddly specific.
I suspected Rune yesterDay because his tone felt off. Then I realized it might be because he's gifted, so I backed off quietly. I guess I'm projecting my thoughts on the wolves?

Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir.
That's why the later Nog votes (Eomer, Shasta, Sally) bother me more than the earlier ones (Boro, tp, maybe Loslote). For the later it was an easy way to pile votes, for the earlier it was a risk.

I love that Macalaure took the trouble to consider that I might be a gifted before he decided to vote for me.
I didn't consider it, I dismissed it. :p


I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!!
First rule of Werewolf: Don't do what the phantom tells you to do.
Can we edit the werewolf sticky? :p

Actually, though, the beginning of Legate's post 270 doesn't sit right with me. It's almost all about why the phantom was the one and only logical choice for the wolves (highly debateable), and then he concludes that phantom must have been a wolf because both packs didn't go for him (jumping to conclusion). I mean, come on.

One thing is also that I am not sure how much would WWs try to save a fellow by a bandwagon in this game in such a visible manner.
Without having roles revealed, they might be able to get away with it for longer than usual. Unfortunately.

there probably would be at least one baddie among the Nog voters - regardless of Nog's actual role and the role of the bandwagon. Just too good a bandwagon to pass,
What makes it any better than the other bandwaggons? It was rushed, last minute, and awfully obvious. I'd actually say it was a bad one to hide in.


About phantom hinting at hunter-ism with his "kill me" post. Hunters have awfully bad chances early in the game, and the phantom should know this, and therefore would not make a post like that until he has a thorough grasp on who to take down with him, which I don't think he had yet. Of course, this doesn't mean the wolves didn't interpret it this way.


Previewing my post... what an ugly mess of quotes and comments. I offer apologies.

[Nerwen]

Just that now he's dead he seems like an ordo to me, while when he was alive, I was more unsure. Does this make sense? I'm not sure that's legit though, as like I said, I'm so used to only innocent being Night killed that this game seems to mess with my head even more than I thought. I found Sally's case against Dead Son of Bjarne really absurd too until I remembered we have absolutely no idea of his role whatsoever thanks to the nature of this particular game.
I'm inclined to think he was an ordo myself, just because he was *so* bossy yesterDay... but I am finding it hard not to assume unknown dead people are ordos anyway, I suppose because that's the default.

I've been looking through yesterDay and will have more to say in a moment.

Edit:x'd with Mac.

[mormegil]

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?



Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

[Firefoot]

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

[mormegil]

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 280 and 281)?

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.


Mac and Sally top my list of suspects. Agan is a third because of the reaction yesterday to what I considered a bit of a joke but she is working at acquitting herself and I feel slightly better. There are others such as Eomer and Boro that I'd like to hear more from.

[Boromir88]

All we essentially know at this point is Rune and tp were not part of the same pack (considering the narration says they were "mauled" I'm also going with the interpretation they were killed by both packs). Which is a crummy position to be in, and we won't have any solid info (possibly) until the next DAY.

In response to Greenie's question about the Dead sending information. They will be able to find out one of their roles during NIGHT 3, and I always assumed just to use the previous day's votes. For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc

For the time being I'm assuming both Rune and the phantom were ordo, until there comes a time when we might discover otherwise. I can't recall playing with Rune in a long time, I didn't get any wolf-vibes from him. Rune seemed to side with the phantom on having no-lynch and criticized Nogrod, so it's possible one pack killed him to set up the Nog voters. (I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

The most likely wolf, of the 3 dead, I think is Nogrod and I would love for the Dead to check him tonight, but that's choice isn't up to me.

I've played a lot more with the phantom, and I think I'm one of the best when it comes to knowing his playing habits. When he wants to paint a target on his back, he will, and that's pretty much what he did. When he's an ordo, if he thinks he knows who is gifted he'll hang a large "KILL ME" sign and in that way try to protect the gifteds from the wolf-kill. That's pretty much what happened yesterday. Although, wolf is possible, because he would be a target for a rival pack as well, and we can't rule out that possibility completely.

For the time being though, I'm going to go with the assumption Rune and the phantom are ordos.

[A Little Green]

In response to Greenie's question about the Dead sending information. They will be able to find out one of their roles during NIGHT 3, and I always assumed just to use the previous day's votes. For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etcOK that makes more sense. Also can we rechristen the first one BandwAgan? And also Nogawagon would be a palindrome. (Also I should shut up.)

I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.What's your theory then? If you don't buy Sally's "Rune was killed for looking like a wolf" theory (understandable, I don't either) and you also don't think he was killed because the wolves thought he was a potential gifted, do you have any better suggestions?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

One small point: Lommy's post #271 mistakenly quotes me. I don't know who posted those words but it certainly wasn't me.

Obviously, this means shenanigans and that we should kill Lommy today. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's hard to post from a phone, :(.

Anyway, Legate has co-opted my project for the day, which was to look into the possibility of the Nog voters saving Agan with their votes. Bah.

As for my own vote yesterday (as it's been mentioned as suspicious by Firefoot and Mac, I believe) - I'm pretty sure I mentioned why I was suspicious of Nog fairly early on (for me, anyway) because of that comment of his about ordos being fine with being lynched. It looked like he was setting up to be able to suspect anyone who was defensive about being lynched (as he actually did, with Phantom) and was the most suspicious thing I saw yesterday.

Also, I believe most of the latter votes on Nog were made at roughly the same time, though it's hard to go back and look at cross votes on my phone.

More later. I'll be checking in periodically.

[Nerwen]

So I got caught up with things and haven't had time to do the more detailed analysis of yesterDay I'd planned. So just a few comments.

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.

Then we have Form Nilping himself- some seem to think this looks innocent, but really I cannot imagine why anyone, good or evil, would give himself the third vote at that point.

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.
I'll third this. There's something wrong about him. Maybe I'm biased by the fact that the last time I was in a game with someone who prattled "helpfully" on and on and on about statistical probabilities, that person turned out to have fur and fangs. (Mac himself must have known that what he was doing was an academic excercise with no real practical value.) And then there's the thing I noticed toDay (#242)- it does seems to me to have that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion vibe.

Edit:x'd since morm at #285; clarification;word left out.

[Macalaure]

I looked phantom's post over again, and didn't find anything that looked like a hint at seer dreams hidden in his list. I didn't exactly expect to find one either, though. Since, like most, I think, I don't think he looked wolfish, I assume he was killed for one or both of these reasons:
-they were afraid of a vocal, innocent-looking player organizing the village against them
-they thought they spotted a hunter hint


Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation?
I read over my own post again before replying, and maybe I sounded more tense than intended (I ran out of smileys. ;) ), but calling it really defensively? Maybe I'm being touchy here, but I don't like that wording.

I mean, if people give arguments against me, I defend myself. Especially if the arguments are not very good.

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.
:rolleyes:
Well, that's not something one can defend oneself against.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, and I missed you too, my sun in splendour. :Merisu:

[Loslote]

Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

There are two reasons why a wolf pack might decide to kill someone in this game: a) they think the person is a Gifted, and b) they think the person was a member of the other pack - and yes, in that order, I fully acknowledge that. In this case, however, I do not think Rune looked like a Gifted. He certainly didn't look like a Seer, anyway, at least as far as I can tell, and I haven't picked up on anything else, either. But the wolves must have thought he was something, because I don't think this is a game where no-trace kills are going to be a priority on Night 2.

Furthermore, I think the fact that the second person killed was tp is telling. I doubt the wolves thought tp was Gifted - unless they figured he was bluffing, or double bluffing, or whatever, but that's a hard loop to get into when it's all centered around tp. My thought is that, if the pack which killed tp had had a solid lead on a Gifted, they would have gone with that over tp. Therefore, I don't think it's a terrible assumption to say that neither pack had a solid lead on a Gifted last Night, and that both went with other options.

I don't think we can write off the idea that a wolf pack would target someone for potentially being a member of the other pack. I think trying to pigeonhole any and all Night kills into the suspected Gifted mold could, at best, deprive us of potential information, and at worst, mislead us. This is not to say that Rune couldn't have been targeted for looking Gifted. Maybe the wolves picked up on something I really don't see. But I think assuming that that is the case is a mistake.

The fact that you (morm) were so quick to jump down Sally's throat for suggesting it and are so confident now about what the wolves are thinking suggests to me that either Sally is right and you didn't think anyone would come up with it, or that Sally is wrong and you, knowing what is right, consider anything which is not correct to be absurd and suspicious. But the only people who can say "of course she is wrong" are the people who know, because they were there when the decision was made.

I will not likely be back much before deadline. This will be the only day like that this game (fingers crossed), but I'll have to vote basically now or risk not getting back in time or having to vote sloppily after only having about a half an hour to read the thread. My vote at this point will probably be for morm, unless something else comes up in the next five minutes.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My internet came back up, so I thought I'd go back with my newfound ability to quote things and clarify what I was saying about the Nog votes -

Boro - 8:49
Phantom, Lottie - 8:55
Eomer - 8:56
Shasta - 8:57 (crossed with Eomer)
Sally - 8:59

So, Nog ended up receiving the bulk of the votes against him within five minutes of the deadline. :eek:

Edit: X'ed with Lottie. Also, when I said "quote" I meant "copy and paste". :p

[mormegil]

:rolleyes:
Well, that's not something one can defend oneself against.

Sure there is, shave the fur and see a healer. :D Honestly, in the game where we don't know the identities yet, I have little to go on other than my hunches and intuition, which tells me you are a wolf. The only defense, in my mind, is to stop feeling like a wolf. You have many hours to relieve me of my suspicion of you. Some things like your grasping at straws comment in #242 just nag at me. It screams that you are trying to sound confused when you are not.

[Loslote]

++morm

For reasons stated above.

[mormegil]

I don't think we can write off the idea that a wolf pack would target someone for potentially being a member of the other pack. I think trying to pigeonhole any and all Night kills into the suspected Gifted mold could, at best, deprive us of potential information, and at worst, mislead us. This is not to say that Rune couldn't have been targeted for looking Gifted. Maybe the wolves picked up on something I really don't see. But I think assuming that that is the case is a mistake.



I don't think the idea should be written off either, however as I've indicated it's much more likely they were trying to target a potential seer than a wolf from a different pack. What bothered me about Sally's post was how she immediately jumped to that conclusion that "Well they must have thought Rune was a wolf". Why must that have been the immediate conclusion? You don't strike me as suspicious because you are looking at other sides and sticking your neck out a bit. But when such an early post comes to an immediate and seemingly definitive conclusion that is somewhat counter-intuitive and the other possibility isn't even consider, yes I will consider that suspicious.

x'ed with Lottie's vote for me

[Boromir88]

What's your theory then? If you don't buy Sally's "Rune was killed for looking like a wolf" theory (understandable, I don't either) and you also don't think he was killed because the wolves thought he was a potential gifted, do you have any better suggestions? ~Greenie
As Rune didn't say a whole lot and even with his vote it was for someone he said he didn't want to see lynched (he was in the tie-votes camp), I'm thinking one pack decided to go no trace and are trying to set out an argument to make the reasons to kill Rune look like more and thus steer the lynch today.

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.~Nerwen

See 164:
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697250&postcount=164

Nog stood out to me as kind of suspicious, just the way he was insisting that he didn't buy my reason for wanting to tie-votes so we don't lynch the Seer, because the odds of lynching the Seer were miniscule. In which case, I'm in the "never give me the odds" camp. I was shooting for a tied-vote, because I think that would have been the best Day 1 choice and with the late voters expressing they didn't want to vote for Agan or Form, I went with someone who I was suspicious of, in hopes there was enough support to tie the vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

[Macalaure]

Sure there is, shave the fur and see a healer. :D Honestly, in the game where we don't know the identities yet, I have little to go on other than my hunches and intuition, which tells me you are a wolf. The only defense, in my mind, is to stop feeling like a wolf. You have many hours to relieve me of my suspicion of you. Some things like your grasping at straws comment in #242 just nag at me. It screams that you are trying to sound confused when you are not.
Fair enough.

One thing though: Since the wolves in this game are wolf-hunting just like everyone else, they don't, as usual, have to sound more confused than they really are. I simply meant to state that some of the premises I was drawing conclusions from were rather tenuous.

[Boromir88]

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -

I don't think lynching someone today changes the odds of the Seer dying toDay or toNight all that appreciably, Boro. I especially don't think it changes the odds enough to forego a 1-in-4 chance of killing a wolf today. Someone more numbers-oriented than I could run the math on that, probably, but the fact that our lynch potential is limited is enough for me to think we should take a shot at a wolf today.

- and you never mentioned it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

[Boromir88]

I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -

- and you never mentioned it.

It's not a case of anyone arguing for a no-lynch is innocent, and anyone arguing to lynch is suspicious. It was the way he argued it:

I do not like the "let's not lynch anyone toDay" -meme (backed by the idea that we might lynch our Seer who is very important in this game) as the chances of lynching our seer are minuscule compared to any normal game and there are such loads of wolves around - and if we were to lynch the seer s/he could act on it before things get nasty thus at least securing another two dreams the next Night when the Ranger covered it for her/him...

There 24 players of which 1 is the Seer. The chances of hitting the Seer on D1 lynching = 1/24.

THere are 3+3 wolves in this game. The chances of getting a wolf on D1 lynching = 6/24 = 1/4. And add to that the practical stats we've just seen (a village is slightly better than random in picking up the villains), so yeah. Let's try and hunt a wolf toDay.
~Nog #96
I read it as Nog arguing to even consider the possibility of lynching the Seer day 1 with a 1/24 chance is wrong. I had stated before that I wanted to vote in a manner that would ensure we don't accidentally lynch the Seer, because to go into Day 2 with 4 dreams, instead of 2, can be a major advantage. An advantage and arguably most powerful Seer any village has had.

You stated it as a difference of opinion, which I generally accepted sounding like a reasonable difference of opinion. Give me some credit for being open-minded. There's more variables into my suspects than agreeing with me about whether to lynch or not. :rolleyes:

We wouldn't have lost one of our lynch chances, we have the same number of chances depending on the size of the village, the only way you can gain more chances is Ranger save, or the packs target the same person. We would just be delaying one chance by a day, and I was swayed more by Form's argument to let the wolves make the first move, instead of taking a blind shot.

[Rikae]

Maybe my inclination to be suspicious of the Nog-wagon comes from the fact that I, myself, thought he looked quite innocent. His arguments against
the message-sending between threads seemed like normal 5 am Nog stuff. I mean, it looks like he overlooked some points while being quite vehement about
what he thought was best for the village & for everybody's enjoyment of the game in general. He jumped to conclusions a bit.
Why would a wolf act like that? As an elaborate way of looking innocent which also draws attention to himself? Seems unwise, not something Nogwolf would do.
Wanting to mess up communication between the dead and living? Well, a wolf could do that later, and more subtly.
Going on record as being against it on Day 1 just doesn't look wolfish to me.

Form also looks somewhat good for volunteering for the tie vote and self-voting, but I wouldn't put it entirely past a wolf. Doing so early on a wolf could
reasonably expect another wagon, with more behind it, to overtake them - especially with so many people opposing the idea of a tie.

The wishy-washiness of Firefoot's suspicions is the sort that often
strikes me as wolfy fishing "let's put forward some candidates but not commit, see if anyone nibbles".

I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...
I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.
Well, I thought he might be gifted, because of his reaction to the Day 1 lynch/no lynch business. It's why I made such a point of "we shouldn't lynch people who always look suspicious"
- I was thinking specifically of Rune. I mean, there are a couple others, but after seeing his reaction I particularly thought he shouldn't be lynched.

Anyway, on the Nog wagon:

Boro voted Nog.

Phantom said: I still want to lynch Nog (and I don't understand how he has zero votes), but it would take five votes at this point.
(EDIT: Now he does have one.)
That... that's a pretty clear statement of intent, a sort of call to arms. I begin to wonder if:
tp was a wolf thinking Nog was gifted, calling the other wolves to the "hunt"? Seems far fetched. Or...
tp was innocent, Nog was a wolf, and they killed him last Night as a possible seer? I mean, everyone's going "tp was killed for being tp" or even "for asking to be killed",
but those seem like flimsy reasons.
It could be also that tp, as a wolf, thought he saw an opposing wolf in Nog.
There is, by the way, some benefit to a wolf in being instrumental in lynching another wolf. Most likely the lynched wolf's role will eventually come out, after all.
What I don't buy is that tp actually suspected Nog for opposing his plan.

I voted Lommy. I was hoping to get another candidate going there, as I found her argument with Agan reflected worse on her than on Agan - but nobody notices me, boo hoo.
Mac crossed with me to vote Agan.

The phantom votes Nog.

Now, this is the thing: anyone who wanted to save Agan at this point could have gone for Form, or for Lommy who was even with Nog.

Also, anyone who wanted to save Nog had Lommy, Form and Agan as options.

Loslote votes for Nog within a minute of tp. because I'm much more confident in his guilt than in Agan's, and I'm feeling a little stubborn today, even if it probably won't happen.
By doing so she puts him ahead of Lommy and even with Form. If the vote was crossed, she would have thought it was even with Lommy and behind Form.
Lottie, was this a crossed vote or not? You didn't mark it as one.

Eomer votes for Nog, giving him the 4th vote, to Agan's 5. His reasoning... This is total chaos, but because I don't buy the whole Agan/Lommy thing as wolvish - and because Form is probably innocent
is something I could see coming from either a wolf or an innocent.

Shasta votes Nog, crossed with Eomer. It ended up being between Agan and Nog for me, and Nog's possible groundwork-laying for suspecting anyone on the grounds of not wanting to be lynched looks more suspicious than Agan's possible slip and general defensiveness.
This also looks more or less reasonable. I don't agree with it, but it doesn't seem particularly suspicious.

At this point Nog and Agan are tied, and along comes Sally and decides the lynch (she could also have left it a tie, if she wished).

Ok, so, a couple thoughts:

The Nog-wagon probably wasn't about protecting Agan.
It is possible that someone early in it wanted to protect Lommy (tp, Lottie) or Form (Lottie, Eomer).
Lottie and Sally need a closer look, I think.

That's all for now. I probably won't be around again until this evening.

[Nerwen]

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.
Add Nilp and McCaber... I'd say that counts as "many". And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon. My point is that it all seemed to be built up out of very little, even by Day One standards.

Edit: x'd with Rikae.

[Mithalwen]

I will confess it was a lazy vote. I genuinely thought Agan was pulling a swifty and then when it was explained I really was too tired and too hacked off (remembering too late why I gave up playing werewolf) but sure that cotriving a no lynch would still be counterproductive as well as feeling to my instince unsporting.

So Agan was at that point ahead anyway so... yeah

Incidentally Nerwen, why do you think from the narrative indicates the lovers are still alive? I thought the itch thing might inidicate something but what I am not sure. The known unknown makes guesses far from educated. Tnighthe maulings certainly suggest both packs killed.

That of course doesn't exonerate either. I can't help thinking that instituting some strategy that basically pretty much asks innocents to take one for the team..or at least the gifted is quite a lot of help to the wolves as the ordos. Lots of lobotomised voting leaving no audit trail and narrowing the field for night kills.

[Nerwen]

Okay. I have to vote now, so-

++Macalaure
is the the best suspicion I have right now. Reasons already stated.

Just to complicate things, I am not entirely easy with the other two people who suspect him (morm and Firefoot either. Ah well. Running out of time.

I will try to be back later, though.
Edit:x'd with Mith.

[Nerwen]

Mith, toDay's narration said,
The Wolves will stop PMing now. The Lovers may continue to do so. .

[Mithalwen]

Oh dear I didn't read down to the destructions. Useless... Thank you.

[Formendacil]

Posting from a break at work on my phone--spent time better spent eating catching up. So advance apologies for typos and brevity.

In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates. It seems an outside chance, regardless, but if so, it would mean most of one pack would have voted pre-Nogwagon, suggesting that if there was a wolfish pileon in the Nogwagon, it was between members of a single pack, meaning thatan analysis of the Nogwaggoneers and only there correspondence with each other COULD suggest the composition of a pack.

That is probably too much weight for the slender evidence that is the Agan/Lommy dispute to hold up, but it's gone through my head and for now I think I'll likely look for wolves in the Nogwaggon.


A heads up that while I shpuld be around later a fair bit, I could be stuck on my phone until the deadline.

[Macalaure]

Nerwen's “And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon.” irked me, so I looked back to refresh my memory of events, and then I got carried away and it turned into this.


Agan, Lommy, and everyone around.

#66 Agan jokes about killing Europeans
#67 morm jokes back
#69 Agan misunderstands morm's joke in a way that, to me, strongly suggests a wolf slip
#70 Lommy crosses with Agan, and in the edit is immediately notices it
#74 Greenie thinks Agan was trolling, not slipping
Then the whole thing disappears for a whole stretch of time. Nobody comments on it on page 3 at all.
#123,127 Agan posts, not commenting on Lommy's #70
#129 Lommy returns and makes her case against Agan. A case that I consider solid.
#131 Yours truly lists Agan as suspicious, refering to #69 (crossing with Lommy, which in light of Nerwen's suspicion is probably important)
#139 Lommy lists Agan as suspicious
#144 Agan replies to Lommy's case. Now she does quote #70. She states she understood morm's joke and simply continued it (could be). She also asks what a wolf would gain from her behavior, which doesn't make sense, since the accusation is about a wolf slip.
#150 morm says that he took Agan's #69 as a joke, but that her behavior since raises eyebrows
#155 Agan votes Lommy.
#157 Lommy votes Agan and defends her case. Some of her point 3) seems a bit far-fetched. It's worth noting that Lommy is still around afterwards to make a few more posts.
#159 morm states again that Agan is behaving oddly
#165 Shasta states that he didn't see Agan's slip, but suspects her due to her reaction
#166 Lommy replies to Agan one last time.
#168 Yours truly states his intent to vote for Agan
#170 Form says that their argument is fishy, but that we will only see the truth in a few Days. States they could both be wolves, one could be a wolf, or both could be innocent (duh), but suspects one is a wolf (maybe I thought was most likely innocent too quickly, because this post looks bad)
#172 Nogrod takes up Lommy's case
#174 McCaber says he didn't like Lommy's reaction, but felt it innocent. Agan's reaction felt opportunistic/trying to provoce reaction to him.
#178 After not commenting on the exchange in his detailed list before, Legate now comments. If one is a wolf, it's Agan to him, but most likely both innocent.
#181 Nog votes Agan, not mentioning the argument, but citing different reasons (doesn't mean he discarded the older points, and is probably just adding to them?)
#182 Mith comments on a different post of Agan, suspecting misinformation by her (smelling a bandwaggon and trying to jump on without being too obvious about it? Nah, I think she's genuine.)
#184 Rikae says Agan-Lommy looks wolf-on-wolf, no explanation
#186 list by Form: Lommy too defensive but probably innocent, Agan more innocent than guilty
#188 I'm feeling like repeating myself and say that I'm still going to vote for Agan
#190 Form votes himself. Also thinks that Agan could be guilty, but not strongly enough.
#193 Mith votes Agan
#194 tp needs stuff explained to him :p
#196 Lottie sees where the Agan suspicions come from, but she's not her top choice
#197 tp wants to vote Nog over Agan/Form, but only with support
#200 Firefoot thinks the argument was odd, but doesn't know which looks more suspicious
#202 Lottie offers to go along with tp
#203 Eomer thinks both Lommy and Agan are most likely innocent
#204 McCaber votes Agan. Out of the ones he'd considered, she had the best chance of getting lynched
#205 Lottie tells Eomer not to count Lommy/Agan out just because they were loud
#206 Boro calls Agan's #69 an innocent(!) Freudian slip
#208 Rikae says she suspected Agan earlier but doesn't now anymore (but Agan hasn't posted in a while, what changed your mind?) Lists Lommy as an option for her
#210 Nilp “echoes others' sentiment that it looks wolf-on-wolf” (thought Nilp was pretty innocent so far, but I'm not liking this one that much)
#215 Rikae votes for Lommy
#216 I vote for Agan
#220 Lottie feels more strongly about Nogrod than Agan and votes him
#222 Eomer votes for Nogrod because he doesn't buy into Lommy/Agan wolfness (could have picked Form earlier on)
#223 Shasta votes for Nogrod since he's more suspicious than Agan, though it seems like they are both good options to him

Ugh, not going to do the same for toDay, as I originally thought I'd do.

Thoughts:
I still think Agan is most likely a wolf, but I'll grant that there's a possibility that she's innocent. But why then was she so upset about Lommy's suspicion? It just makes more sense for a wolf who messed up.
I don't see why Lommy is suspicious to some people, and especially the wolf-on-wolf people (Form,Rikae,Nilp) raise eyebrows to me, Form especially. Firefoot's “I don't know who's more suspicious” raises one, too.
Shasta stays a little bit on the fringes, going for Nogrod in the end. Lottie, too.
I don't see Mith's involvement as suspicious. McCaber might look a bit opportunistic, but I don't really think so.
Boro's “innocent Freudian slip” is a red flag I didn't notice before. The way I see it, it was either an innocent joke, or a not-innocent Freudian slip. Or am I seeing something wrong?
Of the others involved, morm, Legate, and Eomer look fine. Greenie's comment could be interpreted wolfishly: trying to calm the flames first, then staying far away once everything's on fire.

[Rikae]

I still think Agan is most likely a wolf, but I'll grant that there's a possibility that she's innocent. But why then was she so upset about Lommy's suspicion?

*raises eyebrow*


#184 Rikae says Agan-Lommy looks wolf-on-wolf, no explanation

I don't know how you got that from "it would look wolf-on-wolf but that wouldn't make sense in this game".

Actually, though, I've changed my mind now: wolf-on-wolf does make sense. Like I said in my last post, dead wolves roles will come out eventually, and their comrades would surely prefer not to be linked in the history.

As for why:
Agan made would could have been a slip, Lommy pointed it out, and they argued back and forth about whether it was until everyone else wanted to write them both off. I've done that sort of thing with a packmate myself, before.

But anyway, you're being sloppy (deliberately or not) lumping me in with "the wolf-on-wolf people" when my conclusion, yesterDay, was that it probably wasn't.

[Rikae]

At the end of the day it looked more like Lommy poking around to see if Agan would jump, and then using that against her without thinking twice.

Hence my vote for Lommy.

[Lalaith]

I thought the itch thing might inidicate something but what I am not sure
Yes. And what was this "door is shut" business? Reminds me of the Paths of the Dead. Hmmm.

[Rikae]

Yes. And what was this "door is shut" business? Reminds me of the Paths of the Dead. Hmmm.

???

[Boromir88]

Boro's “innocent Freudian slip” is a red flag I didn't notice before. The way I see it, it was either an innocent joke, or a not-innocent Freudian slip. Or am I seeing something wrong?


It was rushed wording on my part. With the DL closing down, I was trying to give a quick summary to the phantom to answer why Agan was attracting that many votes. Morm first reacted to Agan's "killing all the Europeans" in what seemed like a joking fashion (I hurriedly phrased that as "innocent Freudian slip"). And then Lommy has explained that her suspicions weren't based on the slip itself, but Agan's reaction to it.

As for why:
Agan made would could have been a slip, Lommy pointed it out, and they argued back and forth about whether it was until everyone else wanted to write them both off. I've done that sort of thing with a packmate myself, before.~Rikae

I'm not sure what two pack mates would gain by that argument on Day 1. I would think the fact that we wouldn't know anyone's role upon their death would make wake mate-on-mate voting less likely, since there really is no confirmation on what looks dubious/wolvish in a lynch until at least a day later. And I would also think with the threat of a rival pack that would be gunning for wolves, that the internal dynamics of a pack would be really tight-knit.

It was Morm who first pointed out Agan's slip, and Lommy went with Agan's reaction to morm as the most suspicious thing she found on Day 1. So, I think it would implicate morm more as a possible pack mate than Lommy. (That is, mormwolf trying to point something out and be helpful, but not expecting much to come of it)

[Lalaith]

???

In the narration. One individual had even developed a persistent itch due to the damp from the doors being permanently shut.

I thought of this. "The way is shut.
It was made by those who are Dead.
And the Dead keep it.
The way is shut."

Probably just me being fanciful.

[Rikae]

Boro, I was explaining why I thought it would have looked wolf-on-wolfy in a normal game. Like I just told Mac, my conclusion was that it wasn't, and that Lommy was suspicious.


One individual had even developed a persistent itch due to the damp from the doors being permanently shut.

Hmmm.

Now I wonder if this relates to the secret role. Maybe some kind of cursed/someone who turns gifted eventually?

[Lalaith]

Now I wonder if this relates to the secret role.
Yes, this was precisely what I was wondering.

Also I am still wondering why the Nog bandwaggon only started after he (Nogs) named Agan and Phantom.

[A Little Green]

Am I right in that the only votes that have been cast this far are these two:

Lottie – morm
Nerwen – Mac

?

I don't want to vote for either of these two, I think morm is innocent and I don't have a clear enough opinion on Mac either way. My top picks would be Agan and Sally, but I'd prefer to hear more from Sally first before making a decision since right now she's in the "just plain confusing" category rather than the "downright evil" one.

[A Little Green]

Looks like it's bedtime for me.

++ Aganzir

In brief - her reaction to Lommy's point against her is still the most suspicious thing I've seen this far. Sally seemed in a way even more off than Agan, but I want her to explain herself before deciding what to think.

That's all from me toDay, I'm sure there was something else I meant to say but if there was I've forgotten it. Leaky brain is leaky. Anyway, choose wisely, kids. Good night.

[Mithalwen]

It may be nothing of course but in such a sparse narration you grasp at anything... maybe the knownunknown isn't waterproof.

[Formendacil]

Am I right in that the only votes that have been cast this far are these two:
Lottie – mormv
Nerwen – Mac

?

I don't want to vote for either of these two, I think morm is innocent and I don't have a clear enough opinion on Mac either way. My top picks would be Agan and Sally, but I'd prefer to hear more from Sally first before making a decision since right now she's in the "just plain confusing" category rather than the "downright evil" one.

Checking in again (still on this cursed phone). I agree with Greenie tha neither Morm nor Mac really strikes me (yet? I don't have much of a read on Mac--which is suspicious, I suppose, but knd of how I feel about everyone here. Morm feels fouler, but that could be a Gifted vibe). Rather thanvote for either of them just yet, I'd still like to see more options, especially off the Nogwaggon. The middle voters strike me as having been in the best voting slots to indicate wolves: trying to hide their votes and--maybe--cover a packmate in danger. And although he's obviously off the lynchable list today, I don't leave Phantom off the list if possible wolves. It'd be quite typical of him to disguise any lycanthropy by giving the village the soundest advice he could think of..besides him, Lottie, Eomer, a d Shasta have all been under the radar. Out of that bandwaggon midsection, we could easily have a lurkerwolf.

[Rikae]

Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.

[Thinlómien]

Macalaure seems horribly... mischevious? Carefree? I think that might be indicative of him being an ordo who's just decided to enjoy the ride.

For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etcWait - the only works from toMorrow on, right? Because last Night Nogrod would have hardly alone uncovered he role of... Nogrod. :D

One small point: Lommy's post #271 mistakenly quotes me. I don't know who posted those words but it certainly wasn't me.Oops, I'm sorry! I checked, it was Boro. I added a correction to the quote so it shouldn't confuse anyone anymore.

In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates.Well, we're not arguing anymore but thre has been nothing to lessen my suspicion of Aganzir, and to be honest I don't have very many other leads before I sit down to think a bit more.

*off to do that next*

[Macalaure]

But anyway, you're being sloppy (deliberately or not) lumping me in with "the wolf-on-wolf people"
Hmm? *goes to read again*
I would think the Lommy vs. Agan stuff looked wolf-on-wolfy, if this were a game where that made sense.
Ugh, yeah... reading comprehension. Never mind that part. :D

[Aganzir]

Well, I'm back, she said.

I'd rather the Dead checked Nog first. I'm quite positive phantom was innocent (he wouldn't have acted the way he did, and somehow I doubt he'd have killed Rune under the circumstances), and I agree with Boro that checking the lynches is more relevant than checking the night kills.

Then again, the wolves will continue to use their influence to direct attention away from their fellows, dead even more than alive. So when a dead person is revealed to be a predator, I vote for taking a very close look at the people who tried to convince the Dead to scry somebody else instead.

I'm wondering about that myself- I'm reading through yesterDay and there are interactions that *look* like "normal" wolf-on-wolfing- morm's with Mac
What was that? Mac is a player who likes his wolf-on-wolfing a lot, but I didn't think his interaction with morm was particularly fishy (pretty much all he said was that he can't leave morm under the radar), and I'm not sure morm would have gone so far as to vote for him (even if it was early in the day) if they were fellows.

PS. For anyone who wants to have a laugh on the expense of dead people (very crass I know ;-)):
You know I kept skimming the thread in my meeting even after I got too busy to post, and I had to make a real effort to keep from laughing when I saw that quote.

Gah I really need to go to sleep soon and I just don't have the time I need today.

I didn't consider it, I dismissed it. :P
Well Mac, I've also dismissed the chance of your being one, as the seer wouldn't dream of talking about me the way you do. ;)

Boro's reasoning about phantom and Rune's roles in #286 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697416&postcount=286) feels good to me.

I still think Agan is most likely a wolf, but I'll grant that there's a possibility that she's innocent. But why then was she so upset about Lommy's suspicion? It just makes more sense for a wolf who messed up.
Because, sleep-deprived as I was in the wee hours after a very long day, I thought her main reason to suspect me was not the angle of my joke but the fact that I chose to make it in the first place (this theory was supported in my mind by her strong reaction to it earlier). I felt she was accusing me of
being so dumb and/or jumpy I didn't recognise a joke, and
making a really lousy slip which - IMO - she ought to have known I wouldn't do.
Which I felt insulted my intelligence, especially as I don't slip when I'm a wolf (as you'll eventually find out ;)) - and even if I did, I'd never trip on something so elementary. I felt Lommy was calling me stupid and being very smug and gleeful about it, and if y'all want to know, I was actually snarling at the screen.

In the narration.

I thought of this. "The way is shut.
It was made by those who are Dead.
And the Dead keep it.
The way is shut."

Probably just me being fanciful.
Perhaps the special role can resurrect people! :smokin:

Okay I'm going to put together some sort of a list.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Some quick reactions to a few things I found suspicious or worthy of attention that I bumped into as I read...

Furthermore, I think the fact that the second person killed was tp is telling. I doubt the wolves thought tp was Gifted - unless they figured he was bluffing, or double bluffing, or whatever, but that's a hard loop to get into when it's all centered around tp. My thought is that, if the pack which killed tp had had a solid lead on a Gifted, they would have gone with that over tp. Therefore, I don't think it's a terrible assumption to say that neither pack had a solid lead on a Gifted last Night, and that both went with other options.
Oho! Well here is a suspicious thing if I have ever seen one. This sounds exactly like a Wolf accidentally telling about what they were telling their packmates at Night. "Our pack didn't have a solid lead on Gifted, so that's what happened." Just a note, but made Lottie jump further on my list.

I don't think the idea should be written off either, however as I've indicated it's much more likely they were trying to target a potential seer than a wolf from a different pack. What bothered me about Sally's post was how she immediately jumped to that conclusion that "Well they must have thought Rune was a wolf". Why must that have been the immediate conclusion? You don't strike me as suspicious because you are looking at other sides and sticking your neck out a bit. But when such an early post comes to an immediate and seemingly definitive conclusion that is somewhat counter-intuitive and the other possibility isn't even consider, yes I will consider that suspicious.
And this also a bit. The second part ("you don't strike me as suspicious...") is suddenly quite defensive, quite unnecessarily, I would say.

The wishy-washiness of Firefoot's suspicions is the sort that often strikes me as wolfy fishing "let's put forward some candidates but not commit, see if anyone nibbles".
Agreed. Personally I do not know what to make of Firefoot, it isn't particularly striking impression, but the bit of wishy-washiness is there.

In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates.
Interesting opinion! Wouldn't have occured to me, but at least on purely theoretical basis, why not. I am not too inclined to believe it, but it is possible.

Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.
I just mentioned Lottie above (and Firefoot too, in fact), I am not sure if I would really go so far to vote for them. Mac does not seem any less suspicious to me than before, there is an aura of uncertainity about him, although too, he wouldn't yet probably get my vote. My top suspect still remains to be Greenie, and in regards to what she said herself, I think I could rephrase: it isn't really that she is being nice, it is that she is too happy. And if there is anything she is happy about, it's being a Werewolf. It's simply the whole behavior and attitude, while also stirring the pot without being involved in any horrible brawl (which could get her under scrutiny) and being noncommital.

I will probably post a list of what I think of everyone now, also for personal clarification.

EDIT: x-ed with the last few

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Then again, the wolves will continue to use their influence to direct attention away from their fellows, dead even more than alive. So when a dead person is revealed to be a predator, I vote for taking a very close look at the people who tried to convince the Dead to scry somebody else instead.

Sure, that's reasonable opinion.

And also interesting find, Lalaith, about the possible hint - I think also it might be about the unknown role (although I think we are left to speculate for now, hopefully perhaps more will follow?). Anyway, shows how for instance, I assume more people, like me, did not bother to read the narration very deeply...

The promised list coming soon.

[Macalaure]

I'm both carefree and really defensive.

I can't win. :rolleyes:


Well Mac, I've also dismissed the chance of your being one, as the seer wouldn't dream of talking about me the way you do.
If I was the seer, I wouldn't be almost sure that you're a wolf. ;)

making a really lousy slip which - IMO - she ought to have known I wouldn't do.
Hey, it happens to the very best of them.

*ahem*

*cough*

:rolleyes:


About the secret role. My first thought was that the itching may refer to a cursed villager. But now that people mention the Paths of the Dead, maybe it is another person who can go to the dead thread (under certain circumstances?) and maybe bring someone back with him?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I have internet at the hotel, and I have my laptop! :D

I'll try and get caught up momentarily.

For now, Boro's explanation is acceptable; it just seemed odd to me at the time. Lottie is one I'd like to look at today; there's something she's normally done in games by now that she hasn't yet and I'm curious as to the reason.

[Thinlómien]

It's really quite impossible to make much sensible stuff out of yesterDay's votes without knowing Nogrod's role (grumble grumble).

Agan is unlikely to be in cahoots with Mith, Mccaber or Mac (hard to imagine the wolves would aim to sacrifice each other because it doesn't even make them look good with the undisclosed roles).

Likewise it's unlikely Nogrod's packmates were the phantom, Lottie, Shasta, Eomer or Sally.

Form does look innocent.

...and that's it.

Now, as I still think it's pretty likely Agan is a wolf (yes, my reason might seem like a small thing, but 1) it's this kind of small things that are actual clues and 2) it's not like I have a better idea), I'm going to sacrifice a moment for thinking who might (have) be(en) her packmate.

Basically it boils down to the nogawagon bunch: the phantom, Lottie, Shasta, Eomer and Sally.

Interestingly enough, I already suspected Sally yesterDay. This hardly makes her look better to me. Lottie? Shasta? Eomer? Hmmm, maybe. Entertaining myself with the idea that the phantom was Agan's packmate and tried to save her. (Yes, he would totally do that, especially in a game like this.) Then the other wolfgang (;)) killed him, would've served him right.

But really, the above is just all flimsy speculation...

A quick list, including the dead:

(reasoning attached if it hasn't been mentioned before or is other than gut feeling/ general impression)

Innocent
Lalaith
Mac
Legate
Rikae - I disagree with them a lot but I think they're likely innocent
Form - I disagree with him a lot but I think he's very likely innocent
morm
Rune
Nilp

Questionable
Greenie - she just seems too sensible to me?
Firefoot - I agree she's throwing wishy washy suspicion around
Shasta
Eomer
Lottie
the phantom
Nogrod
Kath
Gwath
McCaber
Nerwen
Mith

Wolfy
Agan
Sally
Boro - he's starting to rub me the wrong way really bad toDay; he just seems terribly fake (sorry muffin)

That was very substantial. I don't know if I should really just go with my gut/ the few points I've noticed and accept this is a different kind of game, or whether I should feel properly shamed about my lack of analytical thinking and do something about it.

I mean, I DO think I'm onto something with Agan so it's not like my brain's not working, but I'm still not very happy about the fact that my suspicion list looks very similar to how it looked like late yesterDay - toDay has hardly changed anything so far.

Sorry if this post seems like it was written by a scatterbrain, that's how I feel. (I've had a long day and too little sleep three nights in a row. Definitely going to bed earlier today. Meaning, soon.)


edit. xed with everyone

[Lalaith]

So...yesterday I was feeling that Greenie made sense and this hasn't changed today. Nerwen and Loslote also seem mostly clear and helpful - (although having said that, Loslote's post 260 completely lost me, and did Nerwen explain her missing the vote yesterday?).
Rikae and Lommy fluctuate between clarity and obscurity. Firefoot seems to me to be chasing red herrings but that doesn't necessarily mean she's guilty - in a mad game like this, one woman's red herring is another's vital clue. Legate confused me yesterday and still continues to do so today. Half the time he seems to be setting up an argument only to knock it down. Boro and Mac make me uneasy. The rest, I don't know.

Having said all that, I am still pursuing the thesis I began to set up this morning. Yes, the Nog bandwaggon probably contains at least one wolf but it is very difficult to decide who they/he/she was. Aganzir looks the most ropey to me, not just because of her behaviour and not just because the Nog bandwaggon saved her, but because the Nog bandwaggon only began once he'd named her as someone he would vote for.
So, because unlike some of my fellow Europeans I do not have the steely stamina to stay at my keyboard til dawn, I'm going to vote now.
++Aganzir

edit: x-post with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Okay folks, I really need to go to sleep, my brain is slowing down minute by minute.

I agree the dead should make the lynches their priority as they are a lot more informative about the wolves' identities (I mean we KNOW the wolves killed the phantom and Rune with 95% certainty) and thus check Nogrod toNight.

++Aganzir

Her perspective yesterDay still looks very wolvish, and even though she's been chill and conciliatory toDay, I'm not buying the idea that all her defensiveness yesterDay was only due to her tiredness. Also if she was a wolf and almost got lynched yesterDay, being nice and steering away from yesterDay's controversy would be exactly the smart thing to do. Which of course doesn't *make* her a wolf, but it's worth keeping in mind, especially for those who feel like letting her off the hook because of her less weird behaviour toDay.

Good night folks! /Lommy out


edit: xed with Lalaith

[Aganzir]

If I was the seer, I wouldn't be almost sure that you're a wolf.
Ooooh! Take heed, folks, my dear fellow wolf Macalaure is trying to bus me!

Hey, it happens to the very best of them.
Not to me though. I am beauty, I am grace, I will rip apart your face.

[Lalaith]

Oh, one more thing before I go. I'm still chewing over that narration... the 'itch' mentioned - could it be linked to Pippin and the palantir? Remember Gandalf saying to him "If you feel an itch in your palms again, tell me of it!"
Kuru spoke of the role having vulnerabilities, and indeed, looking into the palantir was dangerous...
Anyway, I'm a fine one for going on about others chasing red herrings...I think I need to stop this and go to bed....

[Rikae]

Well, I have a minute and neither of them posted much, so:

Loslote:

Day 1

12 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697088#post697088) - Banter
22 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697099#post697099) - Arguing against tying the vote. Interesting reasoning: if we can lynch a wolf from each pack, the wolves will turn on each other instead of trying to kill gifteds, so we should take a chance to lynch a wolf, or so I gather. Seems an odd line of reasoning - we want to lynch a wolf in general, after all, and the wolves are against each other already (or at least, want to whittle the other pack down), and even if they are down one, they are most likely to prioritize the seer while s/he is at large in any event. So, odd. Maybe wolfish, just for thinking in terms of whittling down (the other) wolf pack.
23 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697100#post697100) - Clarifies about responding to phantom.
28 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697105#post697105) - False reveal is unlikely, but possible. Concerned about the dead deceiving us.
48 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697130#post697130) - Village has a 25% chance of lynching a wolf, wolves at night have a 15% chance. Actually wrong (though I didn't realize it at the time) because of the two kills: it's actually 27.75 that the wolves kill a wolf. Also, the wolves had a higher chance of killing a gifted than the 25% she gives: 43.75% (wow).
Could just be mistaken math. I thought it was right at first, too. However, it does mislead.
54 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697136#post697136) -Against a tie because of last post, also against letting dead decide lynch (so that people leave trails with their votes).
196 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697282#post697282) -Doesn't think Agan is suspicious, suspects Nog. Pre-Nogawagon.
205 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697291#post697291) -Don't rule Nog, Agan, Lommy out for being in the spotlight. because it's their playing style.
220 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697306#post697306) - Votes Nog.

Overall, looks safe, fairly consistent in pursuing Nog (little too consistent? I'm not sure), said some misleading things. Bad vibes.

Day 2

250 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697362#post697362) - Sally's theory about Rune being killed for looking wolfish not too far fetched. Well, it is far fetched (says me). Far-fetched theories are a specialty of Sally's, though, so I find Lottie's defense of it (and subsequent suspicion of Morm) much more worrying.
260 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697374#post697374) - Theorizing that a third packmate (not Morm) was implicated by Rune's death, and Morm's trying to protect that person. Ok, this is getting really convoluted and is based on something unlikely (Rune being a wolf) in the first place. Looks like trying to patch together a theory after the fact. Innocents can do that too sometimes, of course, to back up a hunch or an unformed impression. No conclusion.
293 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697424#post697424) - Continues defending her theory. Now, I agree with her that wolves don't just go for gifteds, but it remains their top priority, and Rune looking gifted seems to have more basis in, well, his actual posts. Her "the other pack went for phantom" argument seems especially odd. She's accusing morm of being a wolf who knows the truth of the night kill, but that's actually the feeling I get from her. That is, maybe her pack actually did think Rune was a wolf, so that theory seems most reasonable to her, and therefore morm seems like an easy (and possibly enemy-wolfish) target for speaking against it?
296 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697427#post697427) - Votes morm "for reasons stated above".

Conclusion: There's much to raise an eyebrow here. I could vote for Lottie.

Edit: X'd with Shasta onwards.

[satansaloser2005]

*looks at number of new posts, sobs bitterly*

I'm home, but I need to find the reset button on my brain. I'll be back in a bit.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

GREEN ZONE
Nerwen - no change from yesterDay, reasonable, no trouble and all
Lommy - more or less likewise
Mith - certainly no Wolfy vibes, seems like her innocent self

YELLOW ZONE
Macalaure - see the end of my post above, also his vote yesterDay was of the type easily cast by a Wolf (of course if we knew the roles of the lynchees, it would be easier to make more conclusions based on this, e.g. if that was a save attempt or whatever. But it was a bandwagon in any case and Mac was in the thick of it.)
Rikae - kind of a similar case, has certainly commited and reasonable posts; it is true she could totally be following some very well-thought sneaky hidden agenda with them. But I do not have enough that would make me cast a vote for her so far.
Lalaith - toDay pretty decent, and the point about the possible mention of a hidden role was good; of course a Wolf could try to ask info from the village as well, but still, makes me think better of her
Morm - there was the last post, but otherwise seems fairly good and reasonable and all
McCaber - mostly it's about the vote: he is the same case as Mac, a vote placement that would be typical for a Wolf on a wagon.
Nilp - I still have the "fishy-fishy" feel from his posts, but it really isn't anything concrete.
Sally - I don't find her suspicious, the stuff morm also pointed out was weird, but not necessarily suspicious in my opinion.
shasta - at times there's been a bit of "meh", but generally not Wolfy-looking.
Form - I have been convinced by the idea that a Wolf wouldn't self-vote, although I am kind of beginning to waver, also with the possibilities that the following wagons were attempt to save him. I am still not very sure I believe that would be the way for the Wolves to behave, though. In any case, I need to Form a better opinion on him (ho, ho, ho).
Eomer - I need to Eomer a better opinion on him (*embarassed cough*). There is just quite little for me to go with.

ORANGE ZONE
Boro - I don't know. He is behaving very... unconspicuously in this game? A bit too noncommital, which worries me.
Firefoot - see also my post above. Could just as well be in the yellow zone though, it is more a matter of distinction, I think it would be nice to reread the posts etc to get better opinion, but that's about it.
Loslote - I didn't like the sorta defensive attitude adopted in her reaction to morm's reaction to sally.
Aganzir - I am wary of her, but to be honest not to any large extent. It is also partly the traditional anti-Aganzir precaution, because every time I give her a pass, then she is guilty. But just for the record, if one of the packs has her and Greenie, then shame on you, Kuru, because that's like the oldest pack in the book. (If it was her and Lommy yesterDay doing a wolf-on-wolf show, though, then that's at least new trick in the book.)

RED ZONE
Curiously enough it seems the only file in this zone seems to be A Little Green, as I stated above: the very happy, nice attitude, combined with noncommital posts which at the same time include subtle nudges a la "the exchange between sally and morm is suspicious, just so that you know, village, but I didn't say anything".

GREY ZONE aka effective no-shows
Gwath
Kath
(I will become a poet.)

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

About the secret role. My first thought was that the itching may refer to a cursed villager. But now that people mention the Paths of the Dead, maybe it is another person who can go to the dead thread (under certain circumstances?) and maybe bring someone back with him?
That would be really nice. Because at least as far as I can tell, the Dead thread is a very nice feature, but not really of much help to us here, and the way to get any info about roles in this game gets close to zero.

Ooooh! Take heed, folks, my dear fellow wolf Macalaure is trying to bus me!
Why can I totally imagine this "joke" not really being a joke at all. Honestly!

Oh, one more thing before I go. I'm still chewing over that narration... the 'itch' mentioned - could it be linked to Pippin and the palantir? Remember Gandalf saying to him "If you feel an itch in your palms again, tell me of it!"
Kuru spoke of the role having vulnerabilities, and indeed, looking into the palantir was dangerous...
Anyway, I'm a fine one for going on about others chasing red herrings...I think I need to stop this and go to bed....

So, a Seer who... dies upon use? Or somesuch? (Actually, that would be pretty thematic.) Well, like I said, hopefully the narrations might keep giving us more?

Anyway... probably going to vote and go to sleep now, too. At least should.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

++Greenie

For that matter, I find it interesting literally nobody shares this suspicion. Does it even cross your mind, folks? Granted, we are a big village (still) and there is a lot to choose from, of course, and many people seem to be suspicious a lot of certain people, but Greenie figures there very seldom, or in practically not at all.

And I really think toMorrow we could employ some scheme of trying to communicate between the Dead thread and our thread via the extra vote or whatever. Because at least so far it seems to me, it is really difficult to get any certainities here. I am really beginning to consider that the Wolves did get rid of the phantom because however overinflated his scheme was, it might have helped the village to get some advantage.

Anyway, good Night.

[Aganzir]

For that matter, I find it interesting literally nobody shares this suspicion.
I kind of do, for similar reasons as you (as I'm writing on my miserable failure of a list that just can't finish itself).

[McCaber]

For that matter, I find it interesting literally nobody shares this suspicion. Does it even cross your mind, folks? Granted, we are a big village (still) and there is a lot to choose from, of course, and many people seem to be suspicious a lot of certain people, but Greenie figures there very seldom, or in practically not at all.



I said something about it, I think, but between her and Agan I voted for the one I felt was worse. Still, having two wolfpacks around means that the interaction could be hostile on both sides.

I don't have a lot of time toDay, and things have been far too hectic on my end, but I believe I have enough to go on to vote again.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Lottie

#22 - First real post, where Lottie comes out as fairly anti-tie as regards the Day 1 lynch.

#28 - Warns against thinking a false Seer-reveal by the wolves is impossible, and also warns against trusting the dead thread implicitly. This second point isn't one I disagree with, necessarily, because everything she mentions is possible -

I honestly had not thought of this, and it sounds really useful, but I am concerned about trusting the Dead Thread so much - what if they skew the vote? I don't think it's super likely, but all it would take is one wrong vote on the part of the Dead - maybe because of a wolf majority, maybe because of a lack of participation from the dead ordos, maybe from a misled and mistaken Dead - to deceive the whole village for, potentially, the rest of the game.

- but I'm not certain it's as dire a possibility. If we set up a complicated system for the dead to tell us if X or Y is innocent or wolvish, then it becomes more of an issue, but I'm not sure that who receives the dead thread vote is going to be... as big a deal, I guess is what I'm trying to say. It just came off as oddly doom-and-gloom for my tastes. I suppose if I were looking at it through wolf-colored glasses then it could be a Lottiewolf laying the groundwork to discredit the information coming from the dead thread because she knows it's going to be primarily innocent-based, but that's a bit of a reach.

#48 - Some math that's slightly in favor of lynching on Day 1 (or, rather, against not lynching Day 1 for reasons of having the wolves make the first move.)

#54 - More about not wanting to tie the vote, especially before the Dead thread becomes active. Also mentions that not giving the dead the power to dictate the lynch, but rather setting up a system through which they can communicate information to us, is probably the best solution. There's really nothing I disagree with here.

#196 - Most suspicious of Nog for being "conciliatory". This is really her first big suspicion of the day, and while I myself voted Nog I can't really wrap my head around this reasoning -

Honestly, the person who jumped out at me most was Nog, who seemed to be pretty conciliatory despite being firmly planted on one side of the biggest debate of the Day.

Some help understanding this would be appreciated, because the way I read it I don't really find it that suspicious.

#202 - Would like to vote for Nog if there's a chance he'll be lynched, but is willing to vote Agan to ensure a lynch. I don't really find this that bad; I'd probably have done the same (sorry, Agan! :Merisu:)

#205 - Cautions Eomer against dismissing someone just because they're loud on the first day.

#220 - Votes Nog. It's clear now that she did cross with Phantom, so at the time it's assumed she was placing the second vote on Nog. It's worth noting that there was indeed a big upswing in support for voting Nog at this time; Eomer, Phantom, Sally, and myself had mentioned possibly voting for him at this point.

Next day...

#250 - Defends Sally against Morm, regarding Sally's theory on a Runewolf being picked off last night. On rereading, it does seem a bit jumpy of Morm to come out so strongly against Sally there. I may have to look at him next, time permitting. Regarding Lottie herself, she says she's suspicious of Morm here. Nothing really jumps out at me.

#260 - Speculates that it's not morm himself that's implicated by Rune being killed, but rather possibly Greenie or Form. Links Rune and morm by way of playstyle during the first day, which is an interesting connection to make; I'm not yet how relevant it is, but it's certainly one perspective.

#293 - This point -

There are two reasons why a wolf pack might decide to kill someone in this game: a) they think the person is a Gifted, and b) they think the person was a member of the other pack - and yes, in that order, I fully acknowledge that.

- is a pretty good one, in my opinion, although I'm always a bit iffy about hard and fast rules about what wolves will and will not do in a given situation if one is not secretly a wolf themselves (:p). However, I tend to agree with what she says here. She also thinks here that Phantom biting the bullet last night means that it's likely neither wolfpack had a solid lead on a gifted last night; honestly I dunno if that's the case. That bit is an awful lot of speculation.

This bit, though -

The fact that you (morm) were so quick to jump down Sally's throat for suggesting it and are so confident now about what the wolves are thinking

- strikes me as a bit hypocritical, though. Weren't you just talking in rather certain terms about why the wolves would make any particular kill? I can't decide if Lottie actually, innocently suspects Morm for this or if she's reaching for any reason to for its own sake.

#296 - Votes morm.



Thoughts:

Throughout most of this readthrough I was thinking Lottie looked pretty innocent. It wasn't until I got down to the end where I noticed a discrepancy and began to second-guess myself where she's concerned. However, I feel uncomfortable voting for her since she's already said she likely won't be back today, and I could use some clarification on one or two things she's said, so I won't necessarily be voting for her today.

Now to catch up on what's happened while I was typing that...

[Aganzir]

So my brain isn't working and I can't get anything done and keep absentmindedly refreshing the thread to see if anyone has said anything I could reply to with a one-liner.

Half an hour later. This really isn't working. So all you're getting is very general impressions and my sincere apologies and no actual evidence.

GUILTY

Macalaure - he's off and I'm not comfortable with him. At the same time I'm wondering if a wolf would presume to be so convinced about my guilt.
McCaber - I didn't like how he interpreted my part in me and Lommy's fight.
Thinlómien - strong and overtly excited reaction to my joke, and tries to make it sound like I used tiredness as my only excuse when I in fact said I got really upset because I felt she was being intentionally rude.
Greenie - now I happen to know she's had a lot of time in her hands because she's been home with the most awful cough (I can occasionally hear her in the next room - yes all Finnish Barrow-Downers live together at one point or other), and she's made loads of good points. But amidst all this she's too spotless and pure, and butter truly wouldn't melt in her mouth. And it's the not ruffling any feathers part that makes me wary, most of all.

It feels a little lazy to suspect only people who have voted for me but that's apparently the way it goes today. I want to take another quick look at them before voting (not that I'm likely to post anything about it unless something strikes me as absolutely vital, I can't keep my eyes open).

INNOCENT

Formendacil - his whining, volunteering and self-vote on DAY 1 looked reasonably good.
Rikae - I'm liking their points so far and seems generally innocent, so I'm generally happy to keep them around for longer.
Firefoot - seems reasonable to me, nothing to worry about so far.
Mithalwen - I wasn't happy that she voted for me yesterday but other than that I have nothing against her.
Legate - seems more innocent than not. I think he said something weird on DAY 1 but I'm yawning too much to go back to check it right now.


EITHER

Loslote - She felt a little off to me on DAY 1 but I thought her point about no solid gifted clues was a decent one. Other than that no idea.
sally - I didn't entirely understand where she was coming from with Rune but I didn't see it as obviously wolfish, and I think she'd have been happy to get rid of me if she's a wolf. It's hard to tell though because she hasn't been talking about me a whole lot and that's usually my way of telling how it's going with her.
Boro - looking okay but I have too little to go on.
Gwathagor - I messaged him on facebook to ask if he's playing.
Eomer - has escaped my notice so far. Sneaky.
Nerwen - very observant but stays in the shadows
Lalaith - inclined towards innocent a little more than guilty, but (EDIT: apparently I got distracted here - I was going to say something like) hasn't been talking a lot and I feel she's focused a bit too much on me and Lommy's spat.
mormegil - mystifying but reasonable, no idea.
Nilp - no read.
Shasta - it struck me the wrong way when he said he would've felt better about me if I'd only said I voted Lommy yesterday in retaliation, but not much - it just felt a little bit wolfish to me. Other than that I have nothing.
Kath - have you forgotten you're playing dear? :p

[McCaber]

Thinlómien - strong and overtly excited reaction to my joke, and tries to make it sound like I used tiredness as my only excuse when I in fact said I got really upset because I felt she was being intentionally rude.

So wait, you spend a lot of time toDay trying to smooth things over with her, and now she's back on your guilty list?

I'm running out of time and I might not be back before DL, but for me not a lot has changed.

++ Aganzir

[Firefoot]

I apologize if I seem wishy-washy; the real problem is that I just don't have enough time to dig through the massive number of posts in this thread to make good analyses, but I don't want to be absent either, so I've mostly just been posting impressions. I have some time tonight to spend on it - we'll see how useful it is, though. My WW muscles are rusty and as I look for patterns in posts I just feel lost without any concrete knowledge of the identities of the dead...

I'm still not convinced of Agan's guilt, though the last minute rush to save her (?) and lynch Nog does bother me (this is more suspicious to me than anything Agan herself has done).

[Boromir88]

I'm basically at a loss. There's no reference point, because I don't know anything about anyone. I'm just waiting to find out if the Dead will oblige with revealing Nogrod's role, and then DAY 3 getting some scheme together to relay that information.

I wouldn't want to lynch Rikae, Shasta, Lommy, or Legate today. I'm getting innocent vibes on top of they've been doing more than me so far. I'm afraid I'm pretty useless without a focal point and without knowing anything about the Dead.

Of those with votes, I could go for any of them, in the sense I don't feel anything wrong or dreadful if Agan, Mac, Greenie, morm, or Lottie were lynched. I could put sally in this group too, because I just haven't found anything trustworthy about them. Granted, I wouldn't trust anyone in that group, and untrustworthy doesn't necessarily mean wolvish. It just means they (like how I usually am) are usually up to something, and whether that's good or bad I have no idea.

How about Gwath? If he doesn't vote today is he mod-fired. And I know Kath voted yesterday but she's MIA today.

[mormegil]

++Mac

I have some RL projects that need completing and then getting kids to bed and all. I may be back before the deadline but I'd like to make sure to get a vote in. Mac still doesn't sit right with me though he attempted to. He seems off. I'm still suspicious of Sally and Agan but more so of Mac. There are others on the list that are working their way up a bit i.e. Shasta and others that are going down i.e. Legate.

[Aganzir]

So wait, you spend a lot of time toDay trying to smooth things over with her, and now she's back on your guilty list?
I apologised for having upset her. I never said she looked innocent.

[Firefoot]

Okay, some lists:

Innocent?
Nerwen - seems very reasonable
Form - the vote for himself seems very ordo-ish
Rikae - I suppose I'll get harped on for wishy-washiness again here, but after looking at her posts I don't know what was setting off warning bells except maybe her tone sometimes.
morm - I'm following his thinking most of the time and mostly agreeing
B88 - Acting very consistently
shasta - Just can't find anything suspicious

I keep going back and forth/can't get a read at all
Mith - no read
Eomer - not enough posts (weird because I remember Eomer as a prolific poster - but then again, I used to be to - life changes, I guess); the Nogrod vote is a little suspicious to me
Lal - haven't spent much time looking at her posts, maybe seems okay
Nilp - no clue
Kath - Every other thing she does I change my mind. The vote for Form is strange
Lommy - I don't understand her spat with Agan
Greenie - no read
Legate - seems okay?
Sally - Her posts also seem mostly okay, mostly here for Nogrod vote
Gwath - no posts
Agan - See the comment on Lommy

Suspicious
Lottie - See my comment at the start of the day - maybe chasing this tie thing really isn't useful, but she just feels suspicious to me
Macalaure - My suspicion of him has grown since the start of the day
McCaber - hasn't done anything to change my feelings today.

At this point I'm probably going to vote for Mac, but am open to persuasion.

[Aganzir]

Lottie - morm
Nerwen - Mac
Greenie - Agan
Lalaith - Agan (2)
Lommy - Agan (3)
Legate - Greenie
McCab - Agan (4)
morm - Mac (2)

I'll be around for a little while longer because I need to pack for my weekend outing, but unless something drastic happens, I'll vote for Greenie. I'll be equally happy to vote for Mac to save my skin though because this bandwagon is ridiculous.

[Boromir88]

I'll be around for a little while longer because I need to pack for my weekend outing, but unless something drastic happens, I'll vote for Greenie. I'll be equally happy to vote for Mac to save my skin though because this bandwagon is ridiculous.

Well, you've kind of brought this attention on yourself, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (wanting to attract attention). But you also shouldn't be surprised when that attention gets turned against you.

[Aganzir]

Well, you've kind of brought this attention on yourself, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (wanting to attract attention). But you also shouldn't be surprised when that attention gets turned against you.
*makes a mental joke to stop joking forever so nobody can misinterpret me* and my god that was an honest typo and probably better left that way.

But if I die I'll at least get to be with the only person who understands me. :Merisu:

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Right, I'll probably be around from now until closing if anyone wants a chat.

I've basically just been despairing about game mechanics all day and wondering how in Middle-earth we should be playing this game with so little info. But anyway:

The renewed suspicion of Aganzir today is taking much of my attention; she doesn't seem overly suspicious to me but she's once again the top suspect. Legate's lonely vendetta against Green is very curious and interesting: there's a fair chance that his intentions are pure but it reminds me all too much of a tactic I've pursued, with evil motive, in the past - focus with laserlike precision on a random villager of whom no-one else is taking notice.

So many people here it's hard for things to stand out.

[Aganzir]

The Good
Rikae - so far so good, seems calm and collected which (sorry dear) Wolfkae often isn'tA setup? I don't think I've ever remained calm through any game, ever. Day 1, sure, but eventually I will get mad at someone and then Lommy springs the trap!
So I went back to check something before bedtime and noticed this. And I know it's not exactly related but it also kind of feels like what Lommy did to me - pushed some familiar buttons and was then "surprised" I reacted.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Am back, am catching up to two pages of material. My post after this will be pretty touch and go--well, at least Legate already analysed the phantom killing possibilities, with roughly the same conclusions as I had (except I had pretty tree diagrams in mine.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I've just gone back and read his posts and, honestly, Legate's pursuit of Green is stranger than I had thought.

I would not presume to speculate on Green's loyalties at this stage, as I can hardly gauge a thing from her posts; I would not find it strange for anyone to have a hunch that she might be evil. It is the conviction in Legate's posts, however - constantly referring to her as most suspicious - which makes me take notice. Seems like he's acting as if he has a stronger case than he does.

Such behaviour is, of course, suicidal for a seer; but smart daytime survival tactics from a villager.

[Boromir88]

*makes a mental joke to stop joking forever so nobody can misinterpret me* and my god that was an honest typo and probably better left that way.

But if I die I'll at least get to be with the only person who understands me. :Merisu:

Come now, you know how this dance works. You think it's some cheap injustice because you get caught by a slip of the fingers, a lapse of focus of not carefully combing your words. And the thieves at your door say "ah-ha we got you!" and that's all they harp on because that's all they have. But sometimes that is enough. We both understand the feeling of being robbed right under our nose, it makes our blood boil, but in the end what can you do? Tip your cap and silently think, next time we shall have a different dance.

[Mithalwen]

Um sorry I fell asleep... I literally fell asleep.. could you all be slightly more amusing to keep me awake,, just a hint maths and philosophers aint the way to go.....

[Aganzir]

Come now, you know how this dance works. You think it's some cheap injustice because you get caught by a slip of the fingers, a lapse of focus of not carefully combing your words. And the thieves at your door say "ah-ha we got you!" and that's all they harp on because that's all they have. But sometimes that is enough. We both understand the feeling of being robbed right under our nose, it makes our blood boil, but in the end what can you do? Tip your cap and silently think, next time we shall have a different dance.
And what a dance it shall be!

Anyway it's godawfully late (although there's something nostalgic about playing werewolf when the sun is rising) so...

++Greenie

Can't really think about this - or stay up - any longer and intuitively I feel worst about her.

I'm sorry about my lack of participation today, it's the combined result of being busy and having got way way way too little sleep these last several days. I promise to be better tomorrow if I'm still here, and if I'm not, well, do consider taking a look at the people who made it happen. *sprays mouth with silver paint*

[Mithalwen]

Fellow players, our absent (Gwathagor) will not be joining us looking at the other thread. Is there a case for lynching him or would doing Kuru's housekeeping be just lazy? If he is an innocent we save lynching another innocent, if he is a wolf well..great.. if a gifted.. well I suppose Kuru would be less likely to reallocate it if we lynch him rather than leaving him Hors Concours

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Agan votes Green, hmm.

Both Green and Mac were listed as suspicious in her previous post, and she did narrow the choice down to them. Mac had 2 votes; Green had 1. Mac has garnered far more attention than Green. We might think voting Mac would give the better chance for Agan to avoid the noose one more time. But I suppose voting for Mac, as he was closest challenger to be today's lynch-candidate, would have looked too suspicious.

Latching on to Legate's strange case against Green might have proved a better option to save her skin; that is, if Green could have turned out to be another sleeper lynch like Nogrod was.

[Kuruharan]

Fellow players, our absent (Gwathagor) will not be joining us looking at the other thread. Is there a case for lynching him or would doing Kuru's housekeeping be just lazy? If he is an innocent we save lynching another innocent, if he is a wolf well..great.. if a gifted.. well I suppose Kuru would be less likely to reallocate it if we lynch him rather than leaving him Hors Concours

Don't worry about Gwath.

He's removed and I'll just tell you now that Excel made him an Ordo.

[Boromir88]

Fellow players, our absent (Gwathagor) will not be joining us looking at the other thread. Is there a case for lynching him or would doing Kuru's housekeeping be just lazy? If he is an innocent we save lynching another innocent, if he is a wolf well..great.. if a gifted.. well I suppose Kuru would be less likely to reallocate it if we lynch him rather than leaving him Hors Concours

As much this seems like a bad break for us, I think it would be a waste to lynch Gwath. Just let his spirit leave the Barrow and hopefully find some rest.

[Mithalwen]

Thank you, o absent host.... better steel myself to read again. All rather a stab in the dark still

[Kuruharan]

I keep forgetting to do a...

"A mysterious metal pipe with a speaking horn attached suddenly appears in the hall and speaks thusly!"

[Macalaure]

Back and reading and thinking.

Vote count for starters:

Lottie -> morm
Nerwen -> Mac
Greenie -> Agan
Lalaith -> Agan(2)
Lommy -> Agan(3)
Legate -> Green
Caber -> Agan(4)
morm -> Mac(2)
Agan -> Green(2)

Agan 4, me and Greenie 2, morm 1

[Mithalwen]

Nvm Kuru....you are being amusing.. I shan't vote for you:Merisu:, now how about a little clue to make up for being an ordo down:cool:?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I apologize for my lack of participation today - I've been on the road to a hotel for a lot of it.

We've an hour to go until DL and I'm still not certain who I'm voting for. Most of the suspicions I've had thus far have lessened a bit, save Lottie who I've said I'd rather not vote for toDay on account of she's not here to answer my questions.

I did think Agan was suspiciously jumpy yesterday, but toDay I do think she's made an unanswered point;

Thinlómien - strong and overtly excited reaction to my joke, and tries to make it sound like I used tiredness as my only excuse when I in fact said I got really upset because I felt she was being intentionally rude.

(bolding mine)

It may just be Aganwolf grasping at anything and everything to save themselves, but I've had the same reaction when I thought someone was being intentionally rude to me, so I'm probably biased in thinking she's telling the truth here. Of course, as I type this, it occurs to me that I can't think of any reason it can't actually be the truth for an Aganwolf. And Lommy hasn't posted since she said that, either, so it's not as though she's had a chance to answer this.

I may go back momentarily and look at Lommy, actually; something Eomer said recently struck a bit of a chord with me regarding her -

egate's lonely vendetta against Green is very curious and interesting: there's a fair chance that his intentions are pure but it reminds me all too much of a tactic I've pursued, with evil motive, in the past - focus with laserlike precision on a random villager of whom no-one else is taking notice.

Granted, Agan has hardly gone without notice but Lommy's been fairly laserlike as far as I can tell. I need to go back and see if she's focused on anyone else.

[Kuruharan]

now how about a little clue to make up for being an ordo down:cool:?

Very well.

The wolves have posted somewhere in this thread.

[Rikae]

Of the current candidates I think Greenie is the creepiest, however, I'd much prefer Lottie. Is there any support for that?

[Mithalwen]

I suppose an useful one would have been too much to ask for? sigh..

[Firefoot]

After reading over Greenie's posts, I don't really understand the campaign against her. Still not convinced about Agan, either - I sort of wonder if this whole Again/Lommy business has gotten way out of proportion, to the exclusion of discussing other players... *if* both of them are innocent, it would be a good tactic by wolves to keep pushing that discussion, keep the focus there and off themselves. Or maybe everyone else is more perceptive than me and I just don't see what's right in front of my face. :rolleyes:

I'm becoming increasingly convinced of Eomer's innocence; he seems to be echoing my confused villager thoughts.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Of the current candidates I think Greenie is the creepiest, however, I'd much prefer Lottie. Is there any support for that?

Eh... I could be persuaded.

But Green I don't buy; and now I'm seeing a Legate/Agan combination setting her up - which probably doesn't make much sense, but oh well. Anyway, I'm somewhat less concerned about saving Agan right now.

On Mac I have little idea, but seemed fairly sincere so far. No giant red arrows anyway.

What's up with Loslote?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Koala
Mithalwen - Mum feels too detached and bored to be anyone with a role. Also, is my mother.
Formendacil - His Evel Knievel-style self-voting was... Casting what could be the last stone against yourself takes... stones. *apologises*
Rikae - Still feel the same way about the Mistress as I did yesterDAY.
Boromir88 - Nothing changed since yesterDAY.
Legate of Amon Lanc - Continuing the 'anyone who thinks like I do is innocent' meme, his analysis of the NIGHT kills tells me he's an innocent trying to make sense of a cruel, senseless, and information-less world.


Shark-infested waters


Swarm of killer beers [sic]
Aganzir - I have an evil(!) idea drafted called 'Agan as test case' where knowledge of her role and Nogrod would help clear up plenty of confusion regarding yesterDAY's vote. Since she remains fairly suspicious, I'd not mind going through with this plan. I'd most likely vote for her toDAY

Komodo dragon
Kath

Godzilla
Nilpaurion Felagund - I said 'evil'. Lynch me.
Kuruharan

The rest of you I should have a read on, but no hard and fast one. I'll go through the middle-class posters (most of the absentees on the list) to see if I missed anything.

[Macalaure]

Looking pretty innocent to me:
Rikae
Lommy
Lalaith
Eomer
Mithalwen

Leaning innocent:
McCaber
Boromir (buying his explanation about the innocent slip)
mormegil
Nilp (the wolf-on-wolf comment about Lommy-Agan is the only thing I have on him)
Legate (still don't like that one post of his earlier toDay, but otherwise I don't see anything)
Greenie

Still under the radar:
Kath

Undecided:
Formendacil (behavior is somewhat suspicious, but that self-vote...)
Nerwen
Shasta

Somewhat suspicious:
Sally (her case against Rune and some general uneasiness)
Lottie (her behavior around the Agan-Lommy argument resulting in her vote yesterDay, and her jumping on morm toDay)
Firefoot (throwing shady suspicions at me and then jumping on it when I argued against them, only reason she's in this group and not one up is because I'm worried about being kneejerk)

Fairly suspicious:
Aganzir (reason stated all over the place)

I'm surprised Agan voted for Greenie. She suspected me, too, and I already had more votes.

Reason tells me the case against Agan is clear, but my gut hesitates. I don't like any of the present alternatives, though, especially since one of those alternatives is me.

[satansaloser2005]

Speaking of falling asleep.... :(

[Rikae]

Firefoot

Day 1
5 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697080#post697080) - 25% chance of nailing a baddie today
8 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697084#post697084) - Banter
37 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697117#post697117) - wants to orchestrate vote to ensure a tie
51 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697133#post697133) -Reiterates that she wants a tie
200 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697286#post697286) - Unsure who seems more suspicions of Lommy/Agan, Nog probably innocent because of role confusion
207 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697293#post697293) - Admitted throw-away vote for Gwath

Day 2
252 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697364#post697364) - why innocents and wolves would/would not want to tie. Seems not to conclude much from it (gives reasons on all sides), but finds Lottie, Mac & McCaber suspicious.
253 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697366#post697366)- Getting bad vibes from me, gives no reason.
280 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697409#post697409)- Suspicious of the Nogawagon
284 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697414#post697414) - Says Mac is being defensive
348 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697501#post697501) - I apologize if I seem wishy-washy; the real problem is that I just don't have enough time to dig through the massive number of posts in this thread to make good analyses, but I don't want to be absent either, so I've mostly just been posting impressions.
I can relate to that when pressed for time, but still, the result is pretty indistinguishable from safe-under-reindeer-wolvery.
352 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697506#post697506) - Suspicion list. Lottie, Mac & McCaber still top suspects (as in her first post).

Conclusions: very safe, very under-the-radar, but otherwise seems innocent enough.

[Rikae]

Eh... I could be persuaded.

But Green I don't buy; and now I'm seeing a Legate/Agan combination setting her up - which probably doesn't make much sense, but oh well. Anyway, I'm somewhat less concerned about saving Agan right now.

On Mac I have little idea, but seemed fairly sincere so far. No giant red arrows anyway.

What's up with Loslote?

Well, I analyzed her earlier (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697486&postcount=338)and thought she looked pretty sketchy.

[Rikae]

Why does everyone find me innocent? Suspect me, people! I have a wolf avatar! What's a person gotta do to get suspected around here?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Lommy

#70 - Comes out as anti-tie, queries the wisdom of instructing the dead thread, and "smells Freud" in regards to Agan (the start of the infamous slip-fest). Again, re-reading it, I may be naive but it seems like a pretty straightforward Agan-esque joke to me.

#129 - Clarifies where she's coming from re: Agan, and I can kind of see where she's coming from in that the joke itself can kind of be read in two different lights ('lynching' vs 'killing' and the derivative of 'we'). Weirdly enough, I get the impression that had Agan reacted to the alternate reading ('lynching' vs 'killing'), Lommy would have been okay with it? Except to me they seem relatively the same. Perhaps I'm just reading into it differently. Anyway, Lommy uses this as the basis for suspecting Agan due to reacting a bit too wolvishly (I think?) She also mentions always suspecting Lottie on Day 1, although I don't think anything ever came of this. I agree with her statements about not wasting lynch opportunities. I also basically agree with everything she's said thus far about the dead thread -

I disagree. We cannot control the Dead Thread. I've been thinking about this and what I would do if I died and had to vote on the dead thread. First off, I would be likely to start lazing because following two threads and general frustration at being dead, ugh. (I'm being honest here.) Being the good citizen I am, I'd still probably get as far as voting. Now, would I follow the instructions of the living? Possibly, unless we dead people had a better idea. How to convey that to the living? And - I'm emphasizing this again - whose instructions would I follow? Say, the phantom suggests a course of action for the dead thread. Six living people state they agree. Four state they disagree. The rest don't comment. Now, are the living to assume the dead then followed the instructions? How could they know? Or what if two living players had two different ideas for what the dead should do and there was no clear consensus? Whose idea would the dead follow then? And how would the living ever deduce whose idea the dead went with?

Seriously, unless we elect a living village spokesperson or something, there's no way of clearly communicating with the dead. The best we can do is probably use our knowledge of the personalities and the playing styles of the deceased and try to guess what those particular players would do, but that's a little risky. In short, we shouldn't make decisions based on how we can use the dead thread until we have found a way to do so, because it's possible we'll never find one.

#133 - More about the dead thread.

#139 - Lommy makes a list of everyone. It's worth noting that the only person in her "The Bad" category besides Agan is Sally, for -

in a manner that makes me think of sneaky Sallywolves of the past

However, in her "The Ugly" category there are a number of people who appear to also be under the radar, including Gwath, McCaber, Boro, and Kath. It's also worth noting that Lommy adds Agan's position on tying the lynch (she's pro-tie) to reasons to suspect her.

#145 - More about the dead thread and the plan to get information from it.

#157 - Lommy really cements her suspicion of Agan here, adding Agan's defensiveness (which, again, I tend to agree with, whatever the reason) to her reasoning. Honestly, the more I read Lommy's posts the more I see where she's coming from. It is possible an Aganwolf was trying to handwave Lommy's suspicion of her by painting her as silly. I can't really speak with certainty for why Agan might have made a slip (if indeed it is one), but -

If you were innocent, you wouldn't be half as annoyed by me remarking on your wolvish perspective, and I suspect you're just enjoying your wolfing in this game with a nice pack and even the tiniest prospect that your enjoyment might be cut short both makes you fight back and gets on your nerves because you dislike being "busted" on something so trivial, especially if you indeed intentionally chose to comment on morm's joke from that angle and I was accusing you on the wrong grounds.

is kinda plausible, I guess. (I admit my first reaction to rereading this is what I'd say if she talked to me like this - "How do you know what I would and would not do in a given situation? You're not me." :Merisu:)



Given that we're so close to DL, I'm going to go ahead and post the first part of this. I haven't seen Lommy really suspect anyone else, which was the main reason I came back to do this in the first place, but I do admit to being a bit more suspicion of Agan now. I have to wonder if the main reason I want to think Agan is innocent is that I'm an emotional player like she is.

[Macalaure]

I'll admit I gave starting a bandwaggon for Lottie a thought, but:
- I'm not sure about the chances of success, and with my own life possibly on the line, I don't want to risk it
- Another last minute bandwaggon to save Agan?
- Even though my gut is playing tricks with my mind right now, when it comes down to it, I simply suspect Aganzir more.

So why wait any longer:

++Aganzir

[Firefoot]

Getting close to the deadline, so for previously stated reasons:

++Macalaure

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lottie -> morm
Nerwen -> Mac
Greenie -> Agan
Lalaith -> Agan(2)
Lommy -> Agan(3)
Legate -> Green
Caber -> Agan(4)
morm -> Mac(2)
Agan -> Green(2)
Mac -> Agan(5)
Firefoot -> Mac(3)

And my vote make it six for

++Aganzir

[Boromir88]

Given that we're so close to DL, I'm going to go ahead and post the first part of this. I haven't seen Lommy really suspect anyone else, which was the main reason I came back to do this in the first place, but I do admit to being a bit more suspicion of Agan now. I have to wonder if the main reason I want to think Agan is innocent is that I'm an emotional player like she is.

My recent back-and-forth with Agan here I was trying to press to her a bit, because she's been dropping signs around that she knows more, or is more than an ordo. And even though there seems to be frustration that her jests have been scrutinized, I was letting her know she should know by now that's how this dance works. Everything comes under scrutiny, and she shouldn't be surprised when she willingly attracts attention that she becomes the focus of the scrutiny.

She stopped short of any reveal (true or false) which could mean she's a wolf and sees the writing on the wall, or has become frustrated to the point that she's ready to join the Dead.

[Rikae]

My recent back-and-forth with Agan here I was trying to press to her a bit, because she's been dropping signs around that she knows more, or is more than an ordo. And even though there seems to be frustration that her jests have been scrutinized, I was letting her know she should know by now that's how this dance works. Everything comes under scrutiny, and she shouldn't be surprised when she willingly attracts attention that she becomes the focus of the scrutiny.

She stopped short of any reveal (true or false) which could mean she's a wolf and sees the writing on the wall, or has become frustrated to the point that she's ready to join the Dead.

Is she even around, to have a chance to reveal? It is 5 am there.

[Mithalwen]

Why does everyone find me innocent? Suspect me, people! I have a wolf avatar! What's a person gotta do to get suspected around here?

Oh ok then oh cerulean furry one, I will take that as a confession.


+Rikae

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Lommy - Continued

#166 - Makes the same point against Nog that I did, regarding ordos and whether or not they should be okay with getting lynched. Says more about the dead thread and continues to fight with Agan.

#167 - Clarifies that she thinks Rikae innocent for the moment. It's interesting how this quote -

In my experience, you usually get mad when you feel pressured, and you feel more pressured more often when you're a wolf.

- relates to her bout with Agan, considering she didn't actually mention Agan in this post.

#176 - More about the dead thread. Also voices a minor suspicion of Nog for pushing a Phantom-lynch despite not suspecting him. That's the biggest non-Agan suspicion Lommy has had thus far, as far as I can tell.

Next day...


#264 - Thinks Phantom was an ordo and Rune was killed for looking like a nervous Gifted.

#271 - Rehashes the Agan suspicion, and I've come across something that confuses me -

3. Agan replies to morm by making a joke that she used the word "kill" (instead of "lynch") because she's a wolf and it was a Freudian slip.

Except what Agan actually said was

"We" obviously as in "us villagers", not as in "me and my wolf pack", duh!

That's thrown me for a bit of a loop and as it's five minutes to deadline I'll go ahead and post this and (hopefully) get to finish it tomorrow.

[Rikae]

Well, for what it's worth:

++A Little Green

[Boromir88]

Is she even around, to have a chance to reveal? It is 5 am there.

This was probably about an hour ago, before she voted. Her last post, along voting for Greenie:

I'm sorry about my lack of participation today, it's the combined result of being busy and having got way way way too little sleep these last several days. I promise to be better tomorrow if I'm still here, and if I'm not, well, do consider taking a look at the people who made it happen. *sprays mouth with silver paint*

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++AGANZIR

Because maybe I'm blind and there is something up with her. I still don't see it, really. But by now I think we need to find out her role. Not that we will, anytime soon, but... :rolleyes:

Most suspicious of Legate, though.

[Boromir88]

++Aganzir

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Lottie

The last bit of analysis I posted made me completely second-guess myself regarding Lommy/Agan so I'm voting my other suspicion even though I know she won't be lynched. Bah.

[Kuruharan]

The Deadline has come, please stop posting.

The narration will be posted soon.

NIGHT folk may start their activities.

[satansaloser2005]

I have just enough time to say that I don't understand the Agan wagon, and then I need to fall silent and into a deep slumber. I'm terribly sorry, folks. :(

x'd with the mod, possibly

[Kuruharan]

The debate was long and hard again, it took its toll on all.

Fortunately, food had been mysteriously provided again.

Even so, after many hours of debate, the inmates must have been getting a little loopy for they started wondering if they would receive an otherworldly visitor...or sign...or something!!!!

But nothing happened.

Why was that? Oh well, can't worry about that, thar be killin' to do!

The inmates seized Aganzir and thrust her under the blade!

THUNK

Ahh! That was satisfying!

Suddenly there was a creak...a SNAP...and

CHOMP

A huge bear trap suddenly snapped shut on the legs of A Little Green!

Crossbow bolts suddenly flew through the chamber and tore A Little Green to pieces.

Then the lights went out.

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod
the phantom
Rune Son of Bjarne
Aganzir
A Little Green

The Living:
Formendacil
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Macalaure
McCaber
Loslote
Boromir88
Nerwen
Firefoot
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Shastanis Althreduin
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Kath

Illusion:
Gwathagor(Ordo)

Housekeeping Note: Due to a family committment tomorrow, I will be starting DAY 3 at 7 PM EST tomorrow. Everyone who has picks please have them to me by then. I thought making the DAY longer was more fair than making the NIGHT longer.

[Kuruharan]

"BREAKFAST!!!!!" came an insultingly loud voice out of nowhere.

The sun was filtering down again.

Sure enough, a healthy morning repast was spread out on the tables.

As much as their stomachs were rumbling...something was putting them off wanting to dive in...

It probably had something to do with the mass of gore strewn about the place. New gore, that is, somehow the previous bodies and their attendant fluids had also vanished.

But there was so much mess laying about that nobody gave it much thought.

One of the residents scratched as they all looked about themselves.

Sure seemed like more mess than would be made by just two people.

Sure enough, they found the head of Macalaure...

Then Rikae...how ironic...

...and Legate of Amon Lanc

Still, best to dig in before it gets cold!

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod
the phantom
Rune Son of Bjarne
Aganzir
A Little Green
Macalaure
Rikae
Legate of Amon Lanc

The Living:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005
McCaber
Loslote
Boromir88
Nerwen
Firefoot
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

Illusion:
Gwathagor(Ordo)

Those who must stop PMing, do so!

The DAY will end at the customary hour.

[mormegil]

What the what! I'm off to a family event but a lot to think about and process. How were there 3?

[Mithalwen]

Has to be known unknown surely? Some sort of assassin maybe. Assuming Agan was the Hunter. I have sleep to do now. Will return anon and hopefully an unhealthy breakfast and coffee will help.

[Boromir88]

Ouchee...that's 5 deaths in one Day/Night turn.

Agan must have been the Hunter...I'm just hoping there's a few wolves in this bloodbath over the last 24 hours.

[McCaber]

Man, something strange must have gone down last night. Also assuming that Agan was the Hunter and brought Greenie down with her, have we heard any whispers of where the third kill came from? If we can get a better bead on which two were from wolves, it might help give us some additional leads on this mysterious third party (whom I am holding responsible for the third kill until further notice). As far as I know Kuru hasn't even told us which side they're on.

[Boromir88]

At least, we can be certain Agan is the Hunter, and therefor hopefully her trap struck a Greeniewolf. Also, I can use this to start forming better suspicions, since over 2 days she attracted a lot of votes and perhas there's a wolf or more to spot from the Agan voters.

The other thing, I hope the Dead knows someone's role from the Nog, phantom, Rune and Greenie group. Any ideas on which of the four they would have voted to find out?

Question for Master Kuru. Do we find out too who the Dead gives an extra vote to? I didn't spot anything in last night's narration, or today's. And I thought they had enough to start voting on that too?

[McCaber]

Question for Master Kuru. Do we find out too who the Dead gives an extra vote to? I didn't spot anything in last night's narration, or today's. And I thought they had enough to start voting on that too?

As of yesterDay they had a quorum, but I didn't see anything in the narrations to show who they might have voted on. And since they didn't have any additional information, they might well have decided to hold off until toDay to act.

[Firefoot]

Are we quite certain, then, that Agan was the hunter, and not one of the three dead last night?

Also, at this point there is a 8.9% likelihood that all the Dead are innocents - so a 91.1% chance at least one wolf is dead, which I guess is encouraging... (assuming a random selection of innocent/wolf kills, and assuming the hunter is definitely dead, whether it's Agan or someone else - though I'd guess the Night extra kill was due to the special role). Also, I only got a B in statistics so let's say there's an 85% chance that this is correct. :p

The significance of this is that if either of the wolf packs is missing members, I would think they would be getting a bit nervous/desperate (depending on how many missing members...), not knowing whether the other pack is in similar shape. Could be telling toDay (for comparison, at the start of Day 2, there was a 51% all the people killed were innocent).

A look at the voting...

Lommy, Mac, and McCaber voted for Agan twice.

Eomer and Boro were the only two to vote for both Nog and Agan. Eomer is back to being a bit suspicious to me after voting late for both Nog and Agan without a lot of pre-existing suspicion - in fact, he didn't find Agan suspicious at all. This seems like a terrible strategy for a wolf though - might as well at least act like you thought they were suspicious, right?

I still think there's a solid possibility Mac was a wolf, so I'm happy enough with whoever offed him. Wondering if we should look for candidates among those who voted for him... which I guess is just me, morm, and Nerwen. Hmmm. Not knowing where the third kill came from makes that harder.

[mormegil]

Has to be known unknown surely? Some sort of assassin maybe. Assuming Agan was the Hunter. I have sleep to do now. Will return anon and hopefully an unhealthy breakfast and coffee will help.

Yeah, I wondered about that too. If it is some assassin role. I wonder if the powers are limited to a certain number of targets or particular days...hard to tell. To McCaber's point too, without knowing for sure who were the wolves victims, the narrative doesn't appear to distinguish, it makes it a bit more challenging. I would assume that of the 3 Legate would be a relatively safe pick to be one of the wolf kills as he seemed fairly innocent and thoughtful. To that end, Rkae also seemed rather innocent to me, although I found her exclamation asking for somebody to find her suspicious as odd and wanted clarification on that toDay.

In the narration it talked about somebody with an itch again. I believe Lal discussed that a bit yesterDay and it would seem that this is indeed a clue to the role. It makes me think the person may not realize they have a role because they don't seem to know much about the itch...just speculation and not sure how it would all tie in.

Agan voters were:
Greenie (dead—possible wolf)
Lalaith
Lommy
McCaber
Mac (dead)
Nilp
Eomer
Boromir

Indeed there likely was at least one or two wolves in the voting mix. However, I was suspicious of Mac and he's dead so I would think he was one and there is a reasonable chance that Greenie was. It might be a bit hopeful to think that two wolves went down in the fracas but I would think at least one. If Nog was a wolf (I don't think he was) then we would have 2 or 3 down. My guess is we have 1 or 2.

Oddly, Lommy maintained her suspicion of Agan after their fight and make up.

McCaber tied the vote, if I recall and Nilp put Agan ahead.

Boromir was effectively a throw away vote at the end and to a lesser degree so was Eomer's. Eomer could have influenced the outcome somewhat by voting for Mac who had 3 but the fate was essentially decided at that point.

From the voting, excluding the dead McCaber, Nilp, Boro and Eomer look the worst. However I maintain a suspicion of Sally who didn't vote yesterday among other things from the previous days stuff. She doesn't sit right with me. I'd like to hear more from her.

x'ed with Firefoot

[Boromir88]

If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue?

I sure hope this special unknown role isn't some maniac assassin. It would be nice to have a weapon against the wolves that can bite them in the night, but it would be most dreadful if it was just kind of blind night-time killer. This could be a really quick game if there's 2 wolf packs, and a blood-thirsty night maniac. It begs the question is this only a once every other night killer? Or maybe that "individual itch" in the DAY 2 narration was the hint, that the target (either Rune or the phantom) was the same, and thus only 2 kills.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Confusing stuff!

So: the Hunter. In this game, whoever is targeted by the Hunter dies - as I read the rules. So (presuming Agan was indeed the Hunter, as the narration suggests) we know nothing about Green's role?

The narration mentions a bear-trap. Were-Bear? Is this relevant? But how could a Bear kill mix from day to night like that?

[Firefoot]

If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue? This makes a lot of sense to me as well.

I sure hope this special unknown role isn't some maniac assassin. It would be nice to have a weapon against the wolves that can bite them in the night, but it would be most dreadful if it was just kind of blind night-time killer. This could be a really quick game if there's 2 wolf packs, and a blood-thirsty night maniac. It begs the question is this only a once every other night killer? Or maybe that "individual itch" in the DAY 2 narration was the hint, that the target (either Rune or the phantom) was the same, and thus only 2 kills. Interesting thought about Rune and phantom. No one voted for either of them on Day 1, so if that was true I think it would be untied to the vote (compared to Mac who was the number 2 vote getter). I think that what strikes me about the hint of an itch is that it's not necessarily something you're aware of - scratching can be sort of an absent-minded thing. I wonder if the bonus role person knows that they're the mystery role?

Or maybe one of the wolves just has fleas. :rolleyes:

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Rikae kill doesn't surprise me at all - much like the phantom, she seemed like a level-headed village leader, and, given that there are two wolf packs, it's no wonder that they've both been killed off, no matter their true identities.

The Legate kill doesn't surprise me either - I suspect he was a villain and that his wolvish adversaries thought the same.

The Mac kill is most strange. There was a lot of heat on him. Perhaps he got too near the bone?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Question about the Lovers (which may well have been asked already earlier in the thread before I had come to grips with the rules, but oh well):

Say we choose to lynch a revealed Lover. Then they can go get info from the Dead Thread - info on one dead player from yesterday, today's, as well as tomorrow's, then return to us the day after with what they know.

But is that dependent on the other Lover remaining alive all that time? What if the other Lover dies the next night? Is it then impossible for the first Lover to come back to the land of the living? Might be a risky plan.

[mormegil]

Question about the Lovers (which may well have been asked already earlier in the thread before I had come to grips with the rules, but oh well):

Say we choose to lynch a revealed Lover. Then they can go get info from the Dead Thread - info on one dead player from yesterday, today's, as well as tomorrow's, then return to us the day after with what they know.

But is that dependent on the other Lover remaining alive all that time? What if the other Lover dies the next night? Is it then impossible for the first Lover to come back to the land of the living? Might be a risky plan.

It is an interesting thought though. If they come back regardless of the outcome of their other lover it would likely be worth it. It does take away the potential for a wolf kill but has the potential to add some substantial information which we are sorely lacking at this point.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Lovers are on the village's side so we should absolutely do it if it was a guarantee; problem is, it's not. There could be another four wolf kills while the Lover is collecting info from the Dead, and a fair chance that the other Lover will not still be among the living (he or she might already be gone, of course).

I'm not sure if this is the kind of rule clarification that we may ask for, though. ;)

[Firefoot]

But is that dependent on the other Lover remaining alive all that time? What if the other Lover dies the next night? Is it then impossible for the first Lover to come back to the land of the living? Might be a risky plan.
Actually, I think this is just answered in the rules: if one of them dies, and if the other lover remains alive in the Living Thread, the dead lover will spend one DAY cycle among the dead and then returns to the Living Thread for one DAY. Italics mine.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That's not conclusive, though, because the clause about the other Lover remaining alive is unclear - remains alive until when? I would guess it means that s/he must remain alive until the moment the first Lover can return to the Living; but it might also mean that the lynched Lover's journey between worlds can take place on the condition that the other Lover is alive when the lynching takes place - regardless of what happens afterwards.

[McCaber]

So our options on that front are: risk a Lover revealing now when the village is as big as it's going to get for the best odds of the wolves missing the partner, hold off and see if the dead thread can get more information before revealing, or with 8 dead there's a decent chance that one of the pair is already dead and waiting to return.

In a setup like that I should think that the Lovers would try to stay as nonconnected as possible to keep the wolves from drawing potential connections between them, but also leaves us with the difficult task of trying to determine who to preserve to get that information back to us.

[Boromir88]

That's not conclusive, though, because the clause about the other Lover remaining alive is unclear - remains alive until when? I would guess it means that s/he must remain alive until the moment the first Lover can return to the Living; but it might also mean that the lynched Lover's journey between worlds can take place on the condition that the other Lover is alive when the lynching takes place - regardless of what happens afterwards.

Oi. This time we might need those odds-crunchers.

If the Ranger is still alive and able to protect the other Lover to ensure one can return than it might be worth it. Would it be worth it right now though, is the other question? I mean the Dead would only know of one person's role at the moment.

And I think morm is on the right track with the one piece of information we do have...Agan was the Hunter, so let's turn the focus on her voters (that's really the only conclusion you can draw from the narration...I have a hard time believing Kuru would be that cruel to mislead us with the talk of traps and arrows).

I'll go and look at 3 night deaths first. See if there's anything there. You know what's kind of amusing (and sad at the same time). the phantom still has the most posts in this thread. Rikae is the next closest, but she's dead. I'm next. :rolleyes: Doubtful, I'll surpass him tonight, since my vacation time is over and I'll be gone for much of tomorrow. Hopefully, I can be ambitious to analyze all that I want to tonight. :confused:

[Firefoot]

I'm not sure how I feel about the Lover sacrifice... so there are 15 of us now, with somewhere between 2 and 6 wolves still alive (probably - what happens if there is one wolf left in pack A and at Night wolf pack B kills that wolf? Do both packs get a kill still? I would guess so). If we lynched a Lover toDay, I think we have to count on at least 5 kills before that Lover comes back (two at Night, one the Day the Lover is away, and two the next Night). Worst case scenario, this actually results in a village loss (3 innocents and all 6 wolves still alive) before the Lover comes back. On the other hand, the amount of information that could be gained this way is potentially very high.

If we're going this direction though, I think the Ranger would be a far better choice than the Lover - no ties to point to another innocent that would be a target of the wolves, and no risk that the partner is killed, foiling the whole plan and wasting a lynch toDay. Plus, the Ranger becomes super-powered when s/he comes back.

I'd also really like to know about the Seer - if they're still alive, they've got 6 dreams this point - that could be useful at this point (completely game changing, actually). Depends on who the subjects of the dreams have been though, I suppose, so I suppose the Seer knows best when it's best to reveal his/herself. On the other hand, if the Seer is dead, that information would be readily available in the dead thread (the Seer no longer having reason to hide, since they can't die again), strengthening the argument for lynching the Ranger.

Maybe the Ranger or one of the Lovers is already dead though, and will come back to us tomorrow... we did just lose an awful lot of people.

I don't know. It's the sort of thing where I can't believe we're really discussing this, but we really need some solid information soon.

Speaking of the Ranger, it's possible there was supposed to be a third kill on Night 2 but the Ranger was successful.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

On the one hand, I'm very hopeful that we're three or so wolves down by now.

On the other, I bet most of the Seer's dreams are spent on dead people.

[Nerwen]

If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue?
There was an exchange between Mac and Aganzir yesterDay.
#261 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697375&postcount=261) She ironically thanks him for at least considering she might be gifted before voting her on Day One.
#281 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697410&postcount=281) He says, "I didn't consider it, I dismissed it."
#328 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697471&postcount=328) She says, "Well, Mac, I've also dismissed the chance of your being one, as the real Seer wouldn't dream of talking about me the way you do."
#331 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697477&postcount=331) He says, "If I was the Seer, I wouldn't be *almost* sure you're a wolf."

Now, if we take the events of yesterDay to mean Agan was the Hunter, which I'm inclined to do, then I'd say she was right that Mac *couldn't* have been the Seer, or he wouldn't have gone after an unknown so strongly. I don't see why this would look any different to the wolves (or special role). Therefore it seems likely whoever killed him had some other, particularly good reason for doing so. Unless someone can find a "Ranger hint" or "Lover hint" in his posting- I certainly can't- I'm going to go with the assumption that he was killed as a suspected wolf. Besides, it matches my existing bias;). This in turn suggests to me that his killer was more likely to be the mysterious special role ( though this is now getting very speculative).

x'd since Eomer at #412.

[Kuruharan]

Perhaps an illustration will help...

NIGHT W
Lover 1 is killed
Lover 2 survives NIGHT and remains in Living Thread

DAY X
Lover 1 is in the Dead Thread and has all sorts of exciting and interesting conversations
Lover 2 is not lynched and survives DAY and remains in Living Thread

NIGHT Y
Lover 1 is in Dead Thread getting the maximum amount of information up until the time the DAY Z narration is posted
Lover 2 survives NIGHT and remains in Living Thread

DAY Z
LO! Lover 1 is resurrected and has all sorts of delicious info!
Lover 2 is overjoyed!

NIGHT ZZZZZZZZ
Lover 1 dies again and returns to the Dead Thread
Lover 2 is sad but remains in the Living Thread

If Lover 2 is lynched on DAY X or killed during NIGHT Y then both Lovers remain in the Dead Thread and the Living Thread gets no information.

I hope that clarifies. :)

[satansaloser2005]

Perhaps an illustration will help...

NIGHT W
Lover 1 is killed
Lover 2 survives NIGHT and remains in Living Thread

DAY X
Lover 1 is in the Dead Thread and has all sorts of exciting and interesting conversations
Lover 2 is not lynched and survives DAY and remains in Living Thread

NIGHT Y
Lover 1 is in Dead Thread getting the maximum amount of information up until the time the DAY Z narration is posted
Lover 2 survives NIGHT and remains in Living Thread

DAY Z
LO! Lover 1 is resurrected and has all sorts of delicious info!
Lover 2 is overjoyed!

NIGHT ZZZZZZZZ
Lover 1 dies again and returns to the Dead Thread
Lover 2 is sad but remains in the Living Thread

If Lover 2 is lynched on DAY X or killed during NIGHT Y then both Lovers remain in the Dead Thread and the Living Thread gets no information.

I hope that clarifies. :)

Honestly, I'm a little more confused now than I was initially, at least in a way.

Say a lover is lynched toDay. Her beloved must survive the Night, the next Day, and the next Night as well in order for her to return? Is that correct?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

So, no bonus votes were given out yesterDAY, huh?

And any plan of co-ordinating the information exchange with the Dead thread? Assuming they believe Agan is the Hunter, then there are only 4 possible scry targets:

Nogrod
the phantom
A Little Green
Rune Son of Bjarne

I believe there's a small chance of Rune getting scried (unless something really interesting happened), but let's count him in just to be safe.

There are two possible results per person, so unless a higher mathematical power contradicts me, we need eight different ways for them to convey any of the possible data points they have.

(At some point we will have less extra-vote getters than possibilities, not to mention the chance of a Seer being Dead and doing revealing things in the thread, but for the moment we have enough for them to convey their information as completely as possible. We can trim down this method in future DAYs.)

(And I do hope the Lovers and the Ranger are still alive.)

[Nerwen]

If we're going this direction though, I think the Ranger would be a far better choice than the Lover - no ties to point to another innocent that would be a target of the wolves, and no risk that the partner is killed, foiling the whole plan and wasting a lynch toDay. Plus, the Ranger becomes super-powered when s/he comes back.

I'd also really like to know about the Seer - if they're still alive, they've got 6 dreams this point - that could be useful at this point (completely game changing, actually). Depends on who the subjects of the dreams have been though, I suppose, so I suppose the Seer knows best when it's best to reveal his/herself. On the other hand, if the Seer is dead, that information would be readily available in the dead thread (the Seer no longer having reason to hide, since they can't die again), strengthening the argument for lynching the Ranger.
But the Ranger does not become "super-powered". He (or she) merely gets an extra protection to compensate for being exposed:
Ranger - Like the lovers, if killed the Ranger will spend one DAY cycle in the Dead Thread and then return to the Living Thread the next DAY. The Ranger has one protection initially. If the Ranger dies and is resurrected, the Ranger then has two protections. The Ranger can self-protect but cannot protect a person twice in a row. The Ranger cannot protect someone from being lynched, nor can the Ranger protect someone from a Hunter kill.
Edit:x'd since our mod.

[McCaber]

Honestly, I'm a little more confused now than I was initially, at least in a way.

Say a lover is lynched toDay. Her beloved must survive the Night, the next Day, and the next Night as well in order for her to return? Is that correct?

From what I can tell: a lover is lynched at the start of a Night. The partner then survives until the start of the next Day and is not lynched. At the start of that Night, the first lover comes back.

[Firefoot]

So the question then becomes, of our dead, who's good and who's bad. The list is:

Nogrod (lynched) - no idea of role
the phantom (killed by wolves) - seemed innocent to me, but who knows?
Rune Son of Bjarne (killed by wolves) - not sure
Aganzir (lynched) - Hunter?
A Little Green (taken out with Agan) - never seemed that suspicious to me
Macalaure (killed by ?) - would be my top pick for a wolf in this group
Rikae (killed by wolves?) - I thought innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc (killed by wolves?) - not sure

It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for.

Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent.

Since Legate posted his list very clearly, I'll copy it here:GREEN ZONE
Nerwen - no change from yesterDay, reasonable, no trouble and all
Lommy - more or less likewise
Mith - certainly no Wolfy vibes, seems like her innocent self

YELLOW ZONE
Macalaure - see the end of my post above, also his vote yesterDay was of the type easily cast by a Wolf (of course if we knew the roles of the lynchees, it would be easier to make more conclusions based on this, e.g. if that was a save attempt or whatever. But it was a bandwagon in any case and Mac was in the thick of it.)
Rikae - kind of a similar case, has certainly commited and reasonable posts; it is true she could totally be following some very well-thought sneaky hidden agenda with them. But I do not have enough that would make me cast a vote for her so far.
Lalaith - toDay pretty decent, and the point about the possible mention of a hidden role was good; of course a Wolf could try to ask info from the village as well, but still, makes me think better of her
Morm - there was the last post, but otherwise seems fairly good and reasonable and all
McCaber - mostly it's about the vote: he is the same case as Mac, a vote placement that would be typical for a Wolf on a wagon.
Nilp - I still have the "fishy-fishy" feel from his posts, but it really isn't anything concrete.
Sally - I don't find her suspicious, the stuff morm also pointed out was weird, but not necessarily suspicious in my opinion.
shasta - at times there's been a bit of "meh", but generally not Wolfy-looking.
Form - I have been convinced by the idea that a Wolf wouldn't self-vote, although I am kind of beginning to waver, also with the possibilities that the following wagons were attempt to save him. I am still not very sure I believe that would be the way for the Wolves to behave, though. In any case, I need to Form a better opinion on him (ho, ho, ho).
Eomer - I need to Eomer a better opinion on him (*embarassed cough*). There is just quite little for me to go with.

ORANGE ZONE
Boro - I don't know. He is behaving very... unconspicuously in this game? A bit too noncommital, which worries me.
Firefoot - see also my post above. Could just as well be in the yellow zone though, it is more a matter of distinction, I think it would be nice to reread the posts etc to get better opinion, but that's about it.
Loslote - I didn't like the sorta defensive attitude adopted in her reaction to morm's reaction to sally.
Aganzir - I am wary of her, but to be honest not to any large extent. It is also partly the traditional anti-Aganzir precaution, because every time I give her a pass, then she is guilty. But just for the record, if one of the packs has her and Greenie, then shame on you, Kuru, because that's like the oldest pack in the book. (If it was her and Lommy yesterDay doing a wolf-on-wolf show, though, then that's at least new trick in the book.)

RED ZONE
Curiously enough it seems the only file in this zone seems to be A Little Green, as I stated above: the very happy, nice attitude, combined with noncommital posts which at the same time include subtle nudges a la "the exchange between sally and morm is suspicious, just so that you know, village, but I didn't say anything".

GREY ZONE aka effective no-shows
Gwath
Kath He seems like an unlikely seer candidate based on this. The people in his Green Zone, where I would expect a seer to put innocents they dreamed about, seem like unlikely targets for a dream. Similarly, I might expect him to argue more strongly about someone if he'd dreamed of them as a wolf (unless Greenie was a wolf, which is certainly possible even though I don't feel that suspcious). Unless he was trying to be subtle, in which case I have no idea who he was trying to hint at.

I don't know - neither Rikae nor Legate seems like a great seer candidate to me.

If Mac was a wolf, as I suspect, I wonder which two victims were the targets of his pack (if this line of reasoning is even useful)?

[Kuruharan]

Say a lover is lynched toDay. Her beloved must survive the Night, the next Day, and the next Night as well in order for her to return? Is that correct?

Yes.

[Firefoot]

And any plan of co-ordinating the information exchange with the Dead thread? Assuming they believe Agan is the Hunter, then there are only 4 possible scry targets:

Nogrod
the phantom
A Little Green
Rune Son of Bjarne

I believe there's a small chance of Rune getting scried (unless something really interesting happened), but let's count him in just to be safe.

There are two possible results per person, so unless a higher mathematical power contradicts me, we need eight different ways for them to convey any of the possible data points they have.

So you're suggesting something along the lines of, "if Nogrod is innocent, double x person's vote, if he's not, double y person's vote, etc."? This seems reasonable to me, in that it would be a way to get a very clear message across, and would limit the discussion tomorrow about what they were trying to imply. On the other hand, it does limit them. There's a reasonable chance that the seer is dead (40% ish) - what if they'd rather send a message about someone who's still alive? Then again, as soon as they give us a known innocent, I feel like they become a wolf target - then again, what if both packs then attack the same person? What if neither does, hoping the other will? Or the Ranger protects that person? So it wouldn't be a totally bad thing, I guess. I can go along with either strategy - giving the Dead clear guidelines, or letting them give information as they want to.

[McCaber]

Ignore my previous post, word of Mod says I was wrong.

So you're suggesting something along the lines of, "if Nogrod is innocent, double x person's vote, if he's not, double y person's vote, etc."? This seems reasonable to me, in that it would be a way to get a very clear message across, and would limit the discussion tomorrow about what they were trying to imply. On the other hand, it does limit them. There's a reasonable chance that the seer is dead (40% ish) - what if they'd rather send a message about someone who's still alive? Then again, as soon as they give us a known innocent, I feel like they become a wolf target - then again, what if both packs then attack the same person? What if neither does, hoping the other will? Or the Ranger protects that person? So it wouldn't be a totally bad thing, I guess. I can go along with either strategy - giving the Dead clear guidelines, or letting them give information as they want to.

The easiest way for the dead to send a message would be that if Nogrod was guilty, double someone who voted for him. If was innocent, double someone who voted against him. Which is basically what phantom's plan was way back in Day 1.

[Boromir88]

On the one hand, I'm very hopeful that we're three or so wolves down by now.

On the other, I bet most of the Seer's dreams are spent on dead people.

Ok, den-dweller , any particular reason you think we've already got a few wolves...and thus contemplate spending one of our lynch chances that can be used to get a wolf on one of the lovers?

[Firefoot]

Ignore my previous post, wo
The easiest way for the dead to send a message would be that if Nogrod was guilty, double someone who voted for him. If was innocent, double someone who voted against him. Which is basically what phantom's plan was way back in Day 1.
But not all of the dead who might have been scried have received votes - then they would have no fixed way to tell us about them. No one voted for phantom or Rune.

[Nerwen]

So the question then becomes, of our dead, who's good and who's bad. The list is:

Nogrod (lynched) - no idea of role
the phantom (killed by wolves) - seemed innocent to me, but who knows?
Rune Son of Bjarne (killed by wolves) - not sure
Aganzir (lynched) - Hunter?
A Little Green (taken out with Agan) - never seemed that suspicious to me
Macalaure (killed by ?) - would be my top pick for a wolf in this group
Rikae (killed by wolves?) - I thought innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc (killed by wolves?) - not sure

It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for.

Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent.

(…)

The people in his Legate’s] Green Zone, where I would expect a seer to put innocents they dreamed about, seem like unlikely targets for a dream. Similarly, I might expect him to argue more strongly about someone if he'd dreamed of them as a wolf (unless Greenie was a wolf, which is certainly possible even though I don't feel that suspcious). Unless he was trying to be subtle, in which case I have no idea who he was trying to hint at.

I don't know - neither Rikae nor Legate seems like a great seer candidate to me.
“If he’d dreamed of them as a wolf?” ???:confused: What were you trying to say there?

Anyway, I’m not sure I agree with you about Legate's “Green Zone”– the Seer’s Night One dream (or dreams, in this case) have to be either random or based on general principles (e.g. a player regarded as “scary” or “confusing”), and Lommy had anyway been in the middle of a controversy on Day One.

Why don’t you think Rikae was a likely candidate?

If Mac was a wolf, as I suspect, I wonder which two victims were the targets of his pack (if this line of reasoning is even useful)?
It may well be… I’ll think about it.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

the phantom and Rikae are in the Dead thread. I'm sure they'd go along with it. :Merisu: (I hope.)

As for the possible Seer death, I did take that into account, but the possibilities involved with that is clearly beyond the binary way of transferring information that they have right now. We'll just have to *gulp* trust the resurrecting roles for those (assuming they aren't Dead yet and are already rowing back to the Living.)

Now, do we set an artificial deadline (hehe) for our voting, to allow us to co-ordinate this in such a way that won't interfere with the result? The Europe-based people would probably prefer that (?), and the deadline doesn't matter for me.

Thoughts, villagers?

[Nerwen]

So, no bonus votes were given out yesterDAY, huh?

And any plan of co-ordinating the information exchange with the Dead thread? Assuming they believe Agan is the Hunter, then there are only 4 possible scry targets:

Nogrod
the phantom
A Little Green
Rune Son of Bjarne

I believe there's a small chance of Rune getting scried (unless something really interesting happened), but let's count him in just to be safe.

There are two possible results per person, so unless a higher mathematical power contradicts me, we need eight different ways for them to convey any of the possible data points they have.

(At some point we will have less extra-vote getters than possibilities, not to mention the chance of a Seer being Dead and doing revealing things in the thread, but for the moment we have enough for them to convey their information as completely as possible. We can trim down this method in future DAYs.)

(And I do hope the Lovers and the Ranger are still alive.)
We can’t ask about *all* the Dead. We need to pick one, or at most two, people at a time and have some way for the Dead to indicate they *haven’t* checked our selection. I think the first thing is to decide whose alignment we most want to know, and work from there.

EDIT:X’d with Nilp.

[McCaber]

We can’t ask about *all* the Dead. We need to pick one, or at most two, people at a time and have some way for the Dead to indicate they *haven’t* checked our selection. I think the first thing is to decide whose alignment we most want to know, and work from there.

EDIT:X’d with Nilp.

This is true. Out of all of the dead that the thread will have had time to scry, Greenie is the one that I would want to know, with Nog a distant second.

[Nerwen]

the phantom and Rikae are in the Dead thread. I'm sure they'd go along with it. :Merisu: (I hope.)

As for the possible Seer death, I did take that into account, but the possibilities involved with that is clearly beyond the binary way of transferring information that they have right now. We'll just have to *gulp* trust the resurrecting roles for those (assuming they aren't Dead yet and are already rowing back to the Living.)

Now, do we set an artificial deadline (hehe) for our voting, to allow us to co-ordinate this in such a way that won't interfere with the result? The Europe-based people would probably prefer that (?), and the deadline doesn't matter for me.

Thoughts, villagers?
How about two hours before the real DL? Would that give them enough time? Most of them *are* Europeans, though…

EDIT:x’d with McCaber.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm organizing some conclusions based on the kills/lynches we've seen thus far. It's not a lot, but it's something.

Roles we know
Agan was the hunter and chose Greenie on the Day she was killed
One of Mac, Rikae, and Legate was (most likely) the special role

Roles we can eliminate (i.e. the person cannot be a certain role)
Nog was not the ranger or a lover
Phantom was not the ranger or a lover
Rune was not the ranger or a lover

Pack connections we can assume
Phantom and Rune cannot be in the same wolf pack
Mac, Rike, and Legate cannot be in the same wolf pack


I have one more to add, but I need to finish something first. I'll make that a separate post.


x'd with a host

[McCaber]

Roles we can eliminate (i.e. the person cannot be a certain role)
Nog was not the ranger or a lover
Phantom was not the ranger or a lover
Rune was not the ranger or a lover


Unless both the lovers are dead, in which case if Nog is a lover than so is either phantom, Rune, or Greenie. If Nog wasn't a lover, than any two of the others could be the pair.

[Nerwen]

I'm organizing some conclusions based on the kills/lynches we've seen thus far. It's not a lot, but it's something.

Roles we know
Agan was the hunter and chose Greenie on the Day she was killed
One of Mac, Rikae, and Legate was (most likely) the special role

Why? You think the special rôle is a second (presumably modified) Hunter? Or a sort of zombie Assassin? Or what?

[Nerwen]

Eomer has been making a lot of cryptic statements today, hasn’t he? I wish he’d explain them.

[McCaber]

I need to get to bed soon, but I've been making a lot of posts toDay and haven't been suspecting anyone. I think it's time to change that.

Kath is still playing, but barely. I have to feel that a wolf would be more active than two posts on Day 1 and nothing since. For lack of evidence to the contrary, she's in my innocent category. But if she doesn't vote toDay she'll be dead regardless.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, is in the same sort of state I am where she's posting without contributing much. I don't much like this post of hers (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697268&postcount=182), because she's pulling what I'd say was an honest mistake from Agan and trying to pin it as deliberately misleading. I have to reserve judgment for now, but we'll see what she does toDay.

I'm also not that big a fan of Firefoot or Lottie, but most of that could just be their laser focus on such a small number of people.

[satansaloser2005]

Sally sat alone and confused. With all of this death, and so much chatter about who may have done these horrible things, what hope did she have of helping solve the problem? Some even suspected her of perpetrating these crimes, as ridiculous a notion as that was, and she knew she had done precious little to convince them otherwise. Sally sighed, clutching her head in her hands and grumbling about headaches. She knew there was little she could do in her current situation. She had time now, certainly, but with an incoming attack from real life she couldn't escape, she would once again be limited in her ability to assist her friends. How could she help them?

And then, as Sally sometimes does, she began to sing to herself (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_bEWXs_FX4).

~~~~

I know I’ve been a little absent
A lot has already been said
What can I add to the discussion?
Or rather, what could I bring to the thread?

Not that you’ve been lying
But there’s more you could be doing
They could keep on trying
Or you could set up a shoe-in
You have an idea
You know what you’re thinking
What you need to do

I won’t reveal
I won’t give up the game

You’re never there
Why not ++ your name?

It's way too soon
I won't tell them my role

I still think maybe I can do this
I started with a good post count
But posting while at work won’t happen
Not without wanting to tear my eyes out

You can’t keep delaying
With no info, what will happen?
And if you keep playing
When will you have time for napping?
Level with the village
They could use the knowledge
Girl, you got to -have to- spill

They have no proof
They can’t know I’m a-

It’s too late now
Give it up, you’re a-

I want to play
I won’t tell them my role

When do you post?
Do your most
Share your role

Not gonna lie
Is it worth it?
Don’t want to die
Is it worth it?

Just let them know
That this lynch doesn’t count (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=619521&postcount=316)

At least in prose
I won’t tell them my role

~~~~

With a heavy sigh, Sally strolled off into the night in search of a certain unnamed someone. <3

[satansaloser2005]

Unless both the lovers are dead, in which case if Nog is a lover than so is either phantom, Rune, or Greenie. If Nog wasn't a lover, than any two of the others could be the pair.

Trust me, honey, I know these things. :Merisu:

[Loslote]

Alright, I'm finally back and back for good - my schedule is now free for the foreseeable future! :D I'll respond to a couple of things quickly, and then get down to more of my own thoughts in a later post.

On Lottie

...

#220 - Votes Nog. It's clear now that she did cross with Phantom, so at the time it's assumed she was placing the second vote on Nog. It's worth noting that there was indeed a big upswing in support for voting Nog at this time; Eomer, Phantom, Sally, and myself had mentioned possibly voting for him at this point.

I did cross with tp, just to clear that up.

Next day...

#250 - Defends Sally against Morm, regarding Sally's theory on a Runewolf being picked off last night. On rereading, it does seem a bit jumpy of Morm to come out so strongly against Sally there. I may have to look at him next, time permitting. Regarding Lottie herself, she says she's suspicious of Morm here. Nothing really jumps out at me.

...

- strikes me as a bit hypocritical, though. Weren't you just talking in rather certain terms about why the wolves would make any particular kill? I can't decide if Lottie actually, innocently suspects Morm for this or if she's reaching for any reason to for its own sake.

#296 - Votes morm.

Even if I were a wolf, I wouldn't have to reach for reasons. There are two packs, after all. :p Anyway, I did suspect morm - I still do, to some extent, though I think there are much more fruitful lines of questioning to pursue toDay than there were yesterDay - primarily because he dismissed Sally's suggestion that the wolves killed Rune because they suspected he was a rival wolf so out of hand and adamantly. I did consider it less likely that the wolves had considered Rune to be Gifted than that they had considered him to be a rival, but only after serious consideration. Morm rejected it as impossible immediately - or at least, that is how I interpreted his posts. That immediate dismissal is what I found to be suspicious, if that helps clarify for you where I was coming from.

Throughout most of this readthrough I was thinking Lottie looked pretty innocent. It wasn't until I got down to the end where I noticed a discrepancy and began to second-guess myself where she's concerned. However, I feel uncomfortable voting for her since she's already said she likely won't be back today, and I could use some clarification on one or two things she's said, so I won't necessarily be voting for her today.

I tried to clear my thought process up in the paragraph above, let me know if you have any other questions!

We can’t ask about *all* the Dead. We need to pick one, or at most two, people at a time and have some way for the Dead to indicate they *haven’t* checked our selection. I think the first thing is to decide whose alignment we most want to know, and work from there.

We have fifteen Living and eight Dead. Couldn't we just assign two Living players to each Dead player, one to be given an extra vote in the case that their assigned Dead player was revealed to be predator and the other to be given an extra vote if that player was revealed to be prey? Since we have one too few Living toDay, we can assign the last possible result to the case that there is no extra vote granted, since the Dead have tied their vote. That way the Dead don't have to wait for us to vote, and we can receive their message loud and clear no matter how the voting goes down on our side.

Edit: xed with Sally! o.O

[satansaloser2005]

I distinctly need to get to bed. I'll be back in the morning with a fresh brain and will read and respond as I catch up (again).

[McCaber]

So sally, you being one of our pair of lovers, are you volunteering to walk the paths of the Dead, or are you waiting for someone to return to you?

[Loslote]

I distinctly need to get to bed. I'll be back in the morning with a fresh brain and will read and respond as I catch up (again).

Well! You'll have a lot to respond to, I imagine! Great reveal there, excellent work. :D

[Loslote]

So sally, you being one of our pair of lovers, are you volunteering to walk the paths of the Dead, or are you waiting for someone to return to you?

My guess is the former. This:

I won’t reveal
I won’t give up the game

You’re never there
Why not ++ your name?

...

I want to play
I won’t tell them my role

When do you post?
Do your most
Share your role

Not gonna lie
Is it worth it?
Don’t want to die
Is it worth it?

Just let them know
That this lynch doesn’t count (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=619521&postcount=316)

seems to indicate that she's volunteering to be lynched toDay.

[Mithalwen]

I need to get to bed soon, but I've been making a lot of posts toDay and haven't been suspecting anyone. I think it's time to change that.

Kath is still playing, but barely. I have to feel that a wolf would be more active than two posts on Day 1 and nothing since. For lack of evidence to the contrary, she's in my innocent category. But if she doesn't vote toDay she'll be dead regardless.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, is in the same sort of state I am where she's posting without contributing much. I don't much like this post of hers (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697268&postcount=182), because she's pulling what I'd say was an honest mistake from Agan and trying to pin it as deliberately misleading. I have to reserve judgment for now, but we'll see what she does toDay.

I'm also not that big a fan of Firefoot or Lottie, but most of that could just be their laser focus on such a small number of people.

McCaber if you read on you will see that I had my genuine misunderstanding explained to me. However because it was so late and I really didn't want a tie I still voted for her. Couldn't quantify it at that point but she seemed "off" . Now of course it is clear it was a gifted vibe rather than a wolfy one. Yes I didn't contribute much but I didn't have a lot of time and all that maths and philosophy were rather lost on me. Now that most of the people who do my head in and we happen to be in the deadfred and we have some concrete info I will probably perk up... be more useful.

[Nerwen]

Okay. So that’s what you are, Sally. Let me think about this.

[Nerwen]

We could certainly do with some information– and now the wolves will be searching frantically for Sally's lover, so the longer we delay her death the more chance she has of not getting resurrected at all. On the other hand, or paw, she isn’t a wolf. (At least, I don’t see why a wolf-Sally would be making a false reveal right now.)

Also, I concur with McCaber in thinking Greenie is the one the Dead should check. I think that would tell us most.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Sally sat alone and confused. With all of this death, and so much chatter about who may have done these horrible things, what hope did she have of helping solve the problem? Some even suspected her of perpetrating these crimes, as ridiculous a notion as that was, and she knew she had done precious little to convince them otherwise. Sally sighed, clutching her head in her hands and grumbling about headaches. She knew there was little she could do in her current situation. She had time now, certainly, but with an incoming attack from real life she couldn't escape, she would once again be limited in her ability to assist her friends. How could she help them?

And then, as Sally sometimes does, she began to sing to herself (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_bEWXs_FX4).

~~~~

I know I’ve been a little absent
A lot has already been said
What can I add to the discussion?
Or rather, what could I bring to the thread?

Not that you’ve been lying
But there’s more you could be doing
They could keep on trying
Or you could set up a shoe-in
You have an idea
You know what you’re thinking
What you need to do

I won’t reveal
I won’t give up the game

You’re never there
Why not ++ your name?

It's way too soon
I won't tell them my role

I still think maybe I can do this
I started with a good post count
But posting while at work won’t happen
Not without wanting to tear my eyes out

You can’t keep delaying
With no info, what will happen?
And if you keep playing
When will you have time for napping?
Level with the village
They could use the knowledge
Girl, you got to -have to- spill

They have no proof
They can’t know I’m a-

It’s too late now
Give it up, you’re a-

I want to play
I won’t tell them my role

When do you post?
Do your most
Share your role

Not gonna lie
Is it worth it?
Don’t want to die
Is it worth it?

Just let them know
That this lynch doesn’t count (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=619521&postcount=316)

At least in prose
I won’t tell them my role

~~~~

With a heavy sigh, Sally strolled off into the night in search of a certain unnamed someone. <3

Um, so... wow. (http://i.imgur.com/dZXXEEC.gif)

What do we do? I mean, if she is what she is, that's a known innocent. But would the Wolves go for her, when they could be going for the Seer or the other Pack? And do we dare use up a lynch for a known innocent?

Although I think the reveal is a bit too early, it's not bad. Considering the anomalous deaths of the previous diurnal cycle, it would be useful to know what the other side knows--provided her Lover survives in time for her to return.

Kuru-sama, were there any gender biases on the Lovers, or were they chosen purely at random? Maybe the Wolves just go after *gulp* males if even if we lynched her.

[Nerwen]

Kuru-sama, were there any gender biases on the Lovers, or were they chosen purely at random? Maybe the Wolves just go after *gulp* males if even if we lynched her.
I really hope our esteemed mod won’t answer that.

[Lalaith]

Well this is a pretty kettle of fish. First-off, the deaths yesterDay..
The narration mentions a bear-trap. Were-Bear? Is this relevant? But how could a Bear kill mix from day to night like that? (Eomer)
Given my narration obsession, then yes, I too wondered about this. Particularly as my feeling had been that Greenie was innocent. Was Agan on the side of the angels or was hers the 'special role' - alignment unspecified and possibly thus evil? Was one of Legate , Mac or Rikae in fact the Hunter, taking one of the other two down with them? This is unlikely however as the 'itch' is still there in the narration which indicates that the special person is still alive...
I then wondered about the killing of Legate, in the light of his post which Firefoot helpfully reposted. Note that there are three people he names as innocent (green), and one (Greenie) as guilty (red). That makes four. At this point in the game the Seer would indeed have had four dreams. Did a clever Hunter Agan spot this and use his tip to kill a Greenie-wolf? That might be a better scenario. Although it does mean we have lost two gifted. :(
(PS Greenie, if you are reading this, and you were a wolf, hats off to you, you had me completely fooled)
This morning btw I am really liking Firefoot's posts - she's made a lot of sense and her points feel like those an innocent would make.
As for Sally's reveal (cutest reveal ever btw!) I feel a bit nervous. What if we send her to Mandos only for her other half to be killed either by wolves or heaven forfend, by clumsy lynching choices, in the meantime?

[Nerwen]

So, I don’t think we have any excuse to give up hunting for the Day. I’d like opinions on people. Starting with Nilp here. Why ask what he just asked?

[Lalaith]

Ooo...another thought. Maybe the special role is a wandering one, going from person to person each day or night. Remember, everyone has to have their wits about them, say the rules.

[Lalaith]

And another thought - if my Legate-as-Seer thesis is correct, then we should be trusting Lommy, Nerwen and Mith?

[Mithalwen]

Oblique poetry just as I was beginning to enjoy the lack of philosophy. Worth a lynch vote alone. Agree would be an odd fake reveal for a wolf but this is an odd game.

The itch thing is puzzling me to. The only itch in Tolkien I can think off is Sam anyway suffering in the Midgewater marshes but that doesn't really help.Suppose better trawl through in the light of recent events. ...

[Lalaith]

The only itch in Tolkien I can think off is Sam anyway suffering in the Midgewater marshes
Mith my love, I'd mentioned (yesterDay) Pippin's itchy palms (Gandalf's words) which led him to look into the Palantir. Which might be a bit more helpful...

[Nerwen]

And another thought - if my Legate-as-Seer thesis is correct, then we should be trusting Lommy, Nerwen and Mith?
Of course!:Merisu:
Seriously I fear you’re likely right about Legate– that’s one of the main reasons I want to know what Greenie was.

Mind you, even if she turns out to be evil, it might mean only that the wolves (and Agan) *thought* Legate was the Seer– which in this game means the “green zone” people shouldn’t get an automatic pass just yet.

By the way, didn’t Agan say something on Day One about how gifteds should signal to each other?

Edit:x’d since Lalaith at #458.

[Mithalwen]

It might but that would hint at the seer more than KnownUnknown. And if Legate were the Seer then why is someone scratching this morning.. did someone shave a dwarf?

[Nerwen]

It might but that would hint at the seer more than KnownUnknown. And if Legate were the Seer then why is someone scratching this morning.. did someone shave a dwarf?
Ah, well, that’s a point. Everyone’s been assuming the ”itcher” was the special role.

[Nerwen]

Here's the post I was talking about. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697148&postcount=66)

Edit:fixed link.

[Formendacil]

Just a quick post--I seem to have my technological means back toDay, so I should be around in the last several hours, though I'm off to work for now.

Someone--I've already lost whom in catching up--pointed out that people voted for Agan on back-to-back days. This isn't a surefire indicator of lupinity, but taking Day 1 hunches and doggedly following them on Day 2 is as likely to be a cover of a furry bandwaggon as not.

Also, Eomer is coming across far more cryptically today. I don't know what that means...

[Nerwen]

Now, what do people think of our little snow flower, Lottie? Rikae went after her yesterDay, and now Rikae's dead, so….?

Edit:x’d with Form.

[Mithalwen]

Nerwen, that link isn't working for me..could you check it or just give a number ref? Cheers.

[Nerwen]

Okay, I’ve fixed it.

[Mithalwen]

She says a lot including the comment that "I am not going there (the dead thread) alone" (my italic). To my mind that is as good a hint as you could get that she is the hunter and given that her death triggered Greenie's I think that is more likely than the special role the bear trap quote not withstanding.

[Thinlómien]

Okay first - my participation will be limited toDay as I'm out of the city for the weekend with friends (including Agan who keeps having helpless bursts of laughter while reading the dead thread. Very reassuring.) Anyway I do have internet here but I'm not expected to sit all day with my laptop playing werewolf...

Second - it seems I was wrong about the aforementioned deceased giggler. I'm honestly quite baffled because I still think her actions were pretty incriminating, but unless one of the wolves of each pack is blessed with the hunter's gifts without that being said in the rules, I have obviously been mistaken. I guess I'm starting to understand what Agan meant when she once jokingly said she always plays like a wolf even if she's an innocent... :rolleyes: As for Greenie - well we can hope she was a wolf, but we can't really assume that. More on Greenie later.

Third - last Night: what on earth?? I'm still leaning towards the interpretation that Agan was the hunter (because otherwise the mysterious special role would be very similar to that of the hunter) and the special role bloodied their hands last Night. I agree that the special person killing Mac seems the most likely, but I'll still sacrifice a thought or two to that.

If I have the time, I'd so skim through all the Night killed people's posts.

People talking about the dead thread scrying people - before we start thinking if we can give them any instructions, we should check what the rules say: (there seemed to be some confusion, also in my own head)

Since in the Afterlife (or in the anteroom of the Afterlife) it is hard to hide one's true nature from one's fellow residents, every NIGHT after there are three residents the dead get to vote for one among themselves to determine their true nature. Their specific role will not be revealed but rather the voted player will be described as either PREDATOR or PREY."Every night after". So as the phantom and the rune only died on Night2, we should assume the dead thread didn't get to check anyone's role on Night2. And last Night, their options would have been Nogrod, the phantom, Rune, Agan and Greenie.

Now, we said they should check a lynch. I think that on principle, they would agree. This would make Nogrod the logical option as we can assume Agan was the hunter (or the special role). But then again, it's been a while since Nogrod's death and they might feel knowing Greenie's role is more useful. (Remember Agan and Greenie would have been part of decision board last Night.)

Okay so let me do a little maths before I embarrass myself:

We send Sally the volunteered lover (hi there!) to the dead thread by lynching her toDay (Day3).
If her partner manages to hide, Sally will return on Day5, knowing the roles of the people the dead scried on Night3 and Night4, right?
Now I'd love to actually NOT lynch Sally but a potential wolf instead, and leave the wolf packs wondering if they should off Sally or the other wolf pack will, and hopefully both going for Sally.
The downside of this strategy is that I'm not sure if the wolves wouldn't rather try to avoid killing Sally or her partner at all and hope the lovers with their special information will never come to be of (special) use to the village at all. They can afford the village to have one known innocent, I would think, it's more the question of whether they'd rather kill Sally and then try to kill her lover before she comes back, or whether they'd rather try to avoid night-killing or lynching either for as long as the game lasts, or actually, as long as there's still likely to be two more games.
Wow this gives me headache.

Okay a little more maths on top of this:

We're now 15 living people. In the worst ever case scenario, there's 9 innocents against 3 wolves against 3 wolves. Now let's assume the seer's dreams don't help us to lynch a wolf, the special role doesn't kill anybody anymore and the ranger doesn't make a save, and the wolves don't hit the same target or each other. (this is hopefully all very pessimistic)

We lynch lover-Sally on Day 3. It's 8-3-3.
An ordo and Sally's lover are killed on Night 4. It's 6-3-3.
We lynch an innocent on Day 4. It's 5-3-3.
Two innocents are killed on Night 5. It's 3-3-3.
Sally doesn't return from the dead to lift the ratio to 4-3-3. The village loses on Day5 with a tied wolf victory.

Now replace lynching Sally with lynching any other innocent toDay (and remove all talk of the lovers), and the worst case scenario is the same (tied wolf victory on Day5), the only difference is that we have two shots at lynching the wolf (toDay and toMorrow) instead of one (if we intentionally lynch Sally toDay).

I don't think it will come down to this. I think it's feasible to assume that at least 1-2 wolves are already dead, maybe more. Also the gifteds might be able to help us.

All I'm saying is, I'm not for lynching Sally without thinking it over a little more still. I guess it comes down to if taking a risk for the information about 2 scried dead people plus whatever other info the dead might have (seer dreams???) is worth "losing" a Day.

Now emphasis on the word "risk". Combined, the wolf packs have four shots at getting Sally's lover while she's in the underworld.

I guess my conclusion is:

The information is worth lynching a known innocent toDay. (I think this might be the first time ever I'm advocating not trying to lynch a wolf. Strange things happen.)
However I'm not sure we're likely to win this bet, which would make me tempted to push the choice over to the wolves and make them use their Night-kills for that instead of killing possible gifteds.

And geez, now I'm flip-flopping even more. My inner pessimist is asking if it really helps us to know the roles of two dead people (if the dead indeed have no other information) because a) they might both be innocent and b) even analyzing dead wolves' posts has never been a foolproof way to find their packmates.

Okay, now I'm flip-flopping out. I'll be back later - there's a ton of small things said by people earlier toDay and late yesterDay that I'd love to comment on.

But I really think we need think it over before lynching Sally. I'm inconclusive myself. The idea of the wolves having four shots in total at finding her lover sounds pretty bleak to me. Then again, I *do* want to know what the dead know, and it would be weird not to try to use the lovers to our advantage. (If the advantage in this warped case isn't using them as a wolf bait.)

/ confused Lommy out, please discuss

[Boromir88]

Talk of lynching a lover should be dismissed. Period. You all were up in arms Day 1 about the thought of tying the vote for no-lynch because it spoils the random 25% chance of lynching a wolf. Now you want to lynch a possible lover? :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

Okay first - my participation will be limited toDay as I'm out of the city for the weekend with friends (including Agan who keeps having helpless bursts of laughter while reading the dead thread. Very reassuring.) Anyway I do have internet here but I'm not expected to sit all day with my laptop playing werewolf...
Oh, they’re having a party there, by the look of things. Every time I go back to the main page it show a different corpse has just posted.

I agree that we definitely need to think this lynching Sally business over. So nobody jump in and vote for her yet, please. I’d find that very suspicious, actually.

Lommy, I’ve been asking what people think of various people. What do you think of Nilp? And Lottie? I have a particular reason for wanting to know.
EDIT:x’d with Boro.

[Nerwen]

You too, Boro.

[Nerwen]

I will explain fairly soon, but I just want some opinions first.

Also, what do people think of Eomer? And Firefoot?

[Nerwen]

Oh yes, and Boro himself, and the late Macalaure.. Come on, what do you all think about them?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I really hope our esteemed mod won’t answer that.I think I like you. :D

Also, the punchline will have to wait.

[Nerwen]

Step up, don't be shy!:smokin:
EDIT:x'd with Nilp.

[Nerwen]

Oh hello, Nilp.. Look, what do you mean by listing people under "koala"? Do you mean they roar loudly during the Night?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Also, I keep forgetting the most important thing about this stupid (and incredible) game:

Even if the Wolves kill the other Lover, they wouldn't know it unless Sally gets killed as well and doesn't return.

(Of course, another reason Sally wouldn't have returned from the Dead in such a case would be if she were indeed bluffing.)

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen -

I have been sort of ignoring Nilp (sorry dear!) all game as he has seemed fairly innocent to me. Now that I stop to think about him, I guess it's also possible he's furry. I recall a game maybe two years ago when I also kept ignoring him thinking he's innocent and he turned out to be a wolf who had fooled everyone. He's similar to how Greenie was (is??) in my mind - innocent-seeming, but maybe even too much so. I ended up being unsure about Greenie. I feel the same about Nilp.

As for Lottie, she's been similarly off my radar, but unlike Nilp, not on the innocent side. She's seemed a little fishy to me, but not really in a pin-pointable (sorry for that word :D) way. I've been partly ignoring it too because I always get suspicious vibes from Lottie anyway. The same way I've been sort of ignoring the debate around her because similar controversy about her always occurs. Lastly, I was also personally finding Lottie suspicious yesterDay for taking part in the weird Nogawagon that happened to save Agan who was my top suspect, but that reasoning is obviously ditched now.

The bottom line? I have of lumping Nilp and Lottie in the "vaguely innocent" and "vaguely suspicious" categories respectively for later consideration and now that I'm sort of doing the "later consideration" by writing this post, Nilp seems a little more furry and Lottie a tiny bit less suspicious (mostly thanks to Agan's innocence) but I don't really know.


edit: xed with a bunch

[Boromir88]

Lottie, I haven't formed much of an opinion on, she's skating under my nose.

Nilp seems focused on the Dead activity and not so on suspects, or the task during the day. It would look off for anyone except Nilp, he tends to be focused on his own death.

I'm feeling better about morm today, his post on the Agan voters looks like the down-to-business, no shenanigans, let's lynch someone self that I was so used to back in the days long gone.

I still am getting a lost, don't have many clues feel from Lommy, Firefoot, and Form.

If sally is really a lover, that'll help as long as we don't lynch her (I can't believe that idea was tossed out). Yeah, I like info as much as the next person, but we don't lynch a gifted, we need to be lynching wolves.

Those who stirred the idea, top my suspicious list (Eomer and McCaber). Everyone else, Mith, Lalaith, Shasta, Lottie, Kath (missing anyone), I need to put more thought into.

[Nerwen]

Thank you. I want to hear from a few more people, though.

[Thinlómien]

Eomer - maybe innocent
Firefoot - ???
Boro - fishy, better toDay than earlier though
Mac - I thought he was innocent but the whole village suspecting him kind of has made me second guess myself

I don't really have any suspicions right now so I shouldn't maybe be asked. My main suspects for two Days have been Agan and Sally and I haven't rethought yet.

Of the living, I think the ones that I feel I should scrutinize next are:

Boro
Firefoot
Lottie
Nilp
Eomer
and Shasta

I'm pretty sure there has to be at least 2 wolves in that list.


edit: xed with everyone again

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oh hello, Nilp.. Look, what do you mean by listing people under "koala"? Do you mean they roar loudly during the Night?How dare you think of koalas that way. (http://puu.sh/ievcm/96790295c3.jpg)

I stole the list header from Boro, who used it in the old Mandos game. (I kept his original typo, though, hence the [sic].) He seems not to have noticed, tehe.

I've been hit by internet recalcitrance the previous DAY and being-awesome-at-my-place-of-employment issues 'til right now. I'll do a read-through again and gather my thoughts about some of y'all.

(For all the meta-pondering I did before the game started, I missed on the biggest annoyance of them all--how much the lack of concrete information is affecting my analysis. I should have thought more about that, but Your Lie in April was pretty enthralling as well.)

[Lalaith]

In answer to Nerwen's question, I have already said I feel good about Firefoot today, based on her posts. Having said that, I was feeling good about Greenie and my current thesis has her as a wolf so can I trust my feelings?

Speaking of not trusting my feelings - Lottie, I was feeling ok about her yesterday but then I went over Rikae's case against her last night and I thought it was actually pretty convincing. Rikae was as confused as I was by her post (260, sorry not good at links), but unlike me she was smart enough to link it to a bunch of other stuff. Rikae's subsequent killing also makes me even more inclined to trust her reasoning, posthumously.
Mac I thought fairly suspicious. Boro, Eomer, no idea.

I'm going to check now who didn't vote yesterday. Don't know, but such data might be helpful.

[Lalaith]

When I went back I realised a complete vote tally hadn't been done so here it is. (I picked up from Mac's one last night, so I hope Mac was accurate!)

Lottie -> morm
Nerwen -> Mac
Greenie -> Agan
Lalaith -> Agan(2)
Lommy -> Agan(3)
Legate -> Green
Caber -> Agan(4)
morm -> Mac(2)
Agan -> Green(2)
Mac > Agan (5)
Firefoot > Mac (3)
Nilp > Agan (6)
Mith > Rikae
Rikae > Greenie (3)
Eomer > Agan (7)
Boro > Agan (8)
Shasta > Lottie (query – why did he wait this long – why didn’t he vote for her earlier in response to Rikae’s request to start a Lottie bandwagon? RL reasons may of course be the explanation)

Did not vote:
Sally (who apologised for missing deadline on-thread)
Form (who explained on admin thread)
Kath (no-show so no explanation – but to whoever said she was in danger of Mod-death, she did vote yesterday so she’s safe for a couple of days)

So, one thing from this that could support my Agan thinking Legate was Seer thesis – she votes Greenie after Legate does…

[mormegil]

So a lot to process since going to sleep. It seems Sally's reveal is legitimate which candidly is frustrating because she was in the top few of my suspect list.

Firefoot seems much more innocent today. Her posts are helpful and seem to indicate and ordo trying to make sense.

Eomer is creeping up on my list of those that need some full body waxing.

Boro has been fairly vocal and contrary to the popular idea of the lover martyr. That is an interesting concept to me as it could yield some valuable information but the risk is certainly there. I would assume, since Sally revealed herself that her lover is alive. I too found Nilp's question about the gender odd but more on that in a bit. My thoughts are that we at least know an innocent, I'm believing Sally as I see no reason for a false reveal. End of the day if Sally is lynched she may bring back some useful information but the best we would know is the role or 2 dead people. Potentially she could let us know what the seer dreamed if the seer is dead and it would be safe for him/her to reveal there. I tend to think that a known innocent is a big benefit right now. There will also be an element of doubt that this puts in the wolves mind. There is fear for them to kill Sally knowing she may return but it also could complicate their selection of other kills. I guess that is the long way to say I'm not overly comfortable lynching a known innocent. In an odd way I think Boro's comments make him look a bit more guilty which makes me feel better about him. I think a wolf Boro would be slightly more cautious.

Nilp is an oddity that I can't pinpoint. At times he seems like the silly almost flippant Nilp I know and then other times I feel there is more to him that he is trying to hide. I may consider voting for him today.

Thoughts on Kath? I assume she will be done in by mod-fire at this rate so there is no sense lynching her for lack of communication although perhaps as a desperate last resort if we don't have any clear suspects we could consider it, being that she will die anyway. If my understanding is correct is if she doesn't vote today or tomorrow. Thoughts for tomorrow then.

I generally feel very confident that Nerwen is innocent.

Mith has been giving me mixed vibes today. Up to this point I felt she was fairly innocent, but some of the posts today are raising my eyebrow.

These are those that are standing out most to me.

[Mithalwen]

kath never posts much but she is keeping such a low profile that I wonder if it is deliberate,


Morm what exactly has made you suspicious the querying of a broken link or finding unneccesarily oblique posts tedious. Were you planning to postulate a theory through the medium of interpretative dance and fear the opprobrium? Anyway I should be glad ot be notice I suppose, for the first couple of days I though I was on everyone's ignore list... not that I could blame anyone for that.:cool: anyway satisfy my curiosity or not....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Just a couple of points:

After Kuru's rule clarification I am not for lynching a Lover; the risk outweighs the benefit. Not sure what to make of Boro's adamant refusal to even consider a move which could give the village secure information; we all know we have to lynch wolves, but there are different means to these ends.

I dislike Form's post from today: he parrots Nerwen, calling me 'cryptic,' (not really sure why this idea is gaining traction) and the rest of his post is also re-hashing of an idea from yesterday. You're moving up the suspicion list, esteemed Warg scholar though you may be.

[Thinlómien]

I'm really tempted to think Legate was the seer. Not because the prospect of a dead seer makes me happy, but because it would make a lot of sense. Also with his dreams being innocent me and Mith and Nerwen (who seem very innocent to me, especially the latter), and guilty Greenie (which wouldn't surprise me either).

Firefoot's apology for her wishy-washiness actually makes her look better to me.

Really flip-flopping on Deadalaure. Cobbler shouldn't be an option. Still thinking he'd be more careful as a wolf. But he's weird.

The narration names Mac, Rikae and Legate in this order. I wonder if it means anything at all. My idea would be to have the non-wolfkill last, but what do I know.

The other thing, I hope the Dead knows someone's role from the Nog, phantom, Rune and Greenie group. Any ideas on which of the four they would have voted to find out?My money is on Nog or Greenie. If we're trying to set up some communication system, I'd strongly suggest having these as options. (And I won't have time toDay to be a part of talking/suggesting specifics, or figuring out why didn't we know anything about yesterDay's extra vote - my guess is the dead didn't vote because they want to be as clear as possible.)

Agan voters were:
Greenie (dead—possible wolf)
Lalaith
Lommy
McCaber
Mac (dead)
Nilp
Eomer
Boromir

Indeed there likely was at least one or two wolves in the voting mix.Knowing she was innocent, I'm pretty sure there are lots of wolves in this list. She was an easy lynch (follow-up from the Day before) and she did look bad so it wouldn't have been an irrational choice. I'm basically wary of everybody except myself and Lalaith (who just seems very very innocent to me).

I agree Rikae and Legate are likelier wolf-kills than Mac. Somebody should look at Rikae's posts for things the wolves might have considered seerish. As for the special role, I think we shouldn't waste too much time speculating. We can't really know anything.

McCaber and Eomer and Firefoot's discussion about gifted reveals feels a little odd to me. Hard to pin point it though.

Lottie's "if I were a wolf" post #445 is a little fishy to me. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this isn't the first time she's helpfully explaining wolf logic, is it?

Ooo...another thought. Maybe the special role is a wandering one, going from person to person each day or night. Remember, everyone has to have their wits about them, say the rules.That's not unlikely I suppose. I guess we'll see?

I feel uncomfortable about Boro keeping all his options open. I feel like he's doing it the "let's see who we can lynch who's not in my pack" way. Also I feel like usually when he's innocent he's more offended if I suspect him? :p But seriously though, at this point I can't really blame anyone for not having strong suspects... :rolleyes:

Hey, this was a lot shorter than I thought! Will be back a lot later.


edit: xed with Eomer

[Boromir88]

I stole the list header from Boro, who used it in the old Mandos game. (I kept his original typo, though, hence the [sic].) He seems not to have noticed, tehe.~Nilp
I've been in a deep slumber from any WW games until recently. So, I probably forgot all about that :p


I'll be gone until about an hour or so before the DL. Cheers.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Legate-as-Seer theory, based on his Day 2 list, needs to be checked against his Day 1 list.

Green was the sole serious suspect both days.

Nerwen, Lommy and Mith were alone as innocents on Day 2, but were all in the innocent pile on Day 1 as well - along with a bunch of other people. So if Legate is the Seer, did he dream Green on the first night? Why then would he spend both his dreams on people he found innocent? Very unlikely. On the other hand, he might have just got very lucky (or is very good at hunting!) in focusing on Green on Day 1 and confirming his correct suspicion the next night. This is more likely but still a bit of a long shot.

Rikae's focus on Loslote on Day 2 seems more Seerish. She puts great effort into making a case against her (#338) while couching in the post prior that she wanted to take a closer look at Loslote and Firefoot. Interestingly, in that post (#325) she mentions exactly three names as innocents: Agan, Mac and Morm.

[Firefoot]

A proposal to guide the Dead vote:

Since there are fifteen of us, there are almost enough of us to give each option (Nog good/bad, phantom good/bad, etc) two living people that the Dead could vote for. We can try to split it up so that each option has a more suspicious and a less suspicious player (though I doubt everyone will exactly agree on the categorization). The odd one out with only one choice can be Sally (I agree this would be a really strange wolf false-reveal). That way the Dead will have a little more room to send us an additional message if they want, or won't be forced to give the extra vote to someone they know is furry in order to send us the information we are asking for (at least, it will be less likely).

For example:

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Lottie or Nerwen
If phantom is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro or Firefoot
If phantom is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy or Lal
If Greenie is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer or morm
If Greenie is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp or shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

I (almost) went straight down the list of Living, so I wasn't putting too much thought into the pairings, or who they're paired with. Wanted to put the idea out and see if people like it before putting too much effort in. Plus I'm sure others will have opinions.

For the record, I'm starting to feel like morm is probably innocent. I'm agreeing with a lot of what he says.

Boro is rising in my suspicions though. Something about his tone rubs me the wrong way (see posts 360 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697528&postcount=360) and 431 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697828&postcount=431)). Don't know that it merits a lynching at this point; honestly it might just be that he's reminding me of a coworker who is irritating me right now, but I wanted to throw it out there.

[Mithalwen]

On the Legate as Seer theory I googled the quotation he gave at the beginning of his first post( as I finally systematically trawl through and take notes aiee) "I sense evil within this place ... I hear foul creatures about" - it is from a computer game called Den of Evil (apologies if those who belong to a more likely demographic than me to know about such things are as familiar with this quote as "to be or not to be". It might just have been an opening day gimmick or it could have been a seer hint framed as such.

And by the same token does anyone think Rune's opening strap line of Yankee Doodle Dandy has any relevance.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm certainly prepared to be lynched if such a thing is necessary, but I feel it might be better to give the dead one more Day to scry another person. At this point, I really just feel more information is necessary in general, and so I shall provide it. :)

What I would suggest is perhaps tying the vote between myself and whomever is the village's consensus for top suspect, and then doing that thing where we ask the dead to give their extra vote to X if A is innocent or Y if A is guilty. More thoughts on the execution (har har) of that plan later if people are interested in such an idea.

I'm off to do some reading.

[Lalaith]

The Legate-as-Seer theory, based on his Day 2 list, needs to be checked against his Day 1 list.

Green was the sole serious suspect both days.

Nerwen, Lommy and Mith were alone as innocents on Day 2, but were all in the innocent pile on Day 1 as well - along with a bunch of other people. So if Legate is the Seer, did he dream Green on the first night? Why then would he spend both his dreams on people he found innocent? Very unlikely. On the other hand, he might have just got very lucky (or is very good at hunting!) in focusing on Green on Day 1 and confirming his correct suspicion the next night. This is more likely but still a bit of a long shot.

Rikae's focus on Loslote on Day 2 seems more Seerish. She puts great effort into making a case against her (#338) while couching in the post prior that she wanted to take a closer look at Loslote and Firefoot. Interestingly, in that post (#325) she mentions exactly three names as innocents: Agan, Mac and Morm.

These are good points, Eomer - I forgot to check over Legate's list from day 1. That first list of his was a bit odd actually in that his comments didn't always match the categories he put people into. Although your 'lucky suspicion' scenario could also be correct. But I agree, it is also quite plausible that Rikae could either be the seer or have been suspected as one by wolves.

[satansaloser2005]

An addendum to my previous post:

Given that the ranger seems to still be in play (let's hope!), rest assured that my precious and I have a whole new plan (rather, an additional plan) in the works to protect xem should they need to reveal at any point. It doesn't make my beloved immune, but it does make my return a little more plausible.

Anyway. Off to reading now, sorry. *poofs*

[Nerwen]

The Legate-as-Seer theory, based on his Day 2 list, needs to be checked against his Day 1 list.

Green was the sole serious suspect both days.

Nerwen, Lommy and Mith were alone as innocents on Day 2, but were all in the innocent pile on Day 1 as well - along with a bunch of other people. So if Legate is the Seer, did he dream Green on the first night? Why then would he spend both his dreams on people he found innocent? Very unlikely. On the other hand, he might have just got very lucky (or is very good at hunting!) in focusing on Green on Day 1 and confirming his correct suspicion the next night. This is more likely but still a bit of a long shot.

Rikae's focus on Loslote on Day 2 seems more Seerish. She puts great effort into making a case against her (#338) while couching in the post prior that she wanted to take a closer look at Loslote and Firefoot. Interestingly, in that post (#325) she mentions exactly three names as innocents: Agan, Mac and Morm.

This is the post in question.
Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.
The comment about Morm does sound rather like classic seer-phrasing, but I'm not so sure about the rest. Though, Rikae was very strongly against lynching Agan on Day One, to the extent of voting Lommy for "fabricating" a case against her- that could mean something.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Just a note - my play is going to be very light today, and I apologize in advance. This should be the only day this is an issue, though.

That said, I've a lot to catch up on and little time to do it in, so I'll be brief - I think it's fairly clear Agan was the Hunter, for what that's worth, and it's also fairly clear that the hidden role has killing powers at least some of the time (three deaths, what.)

I notice Lottie has responded to what I asked her, so I'll try and make time to give that a going over, and I'd like to finish my go-over of Lommt should time permit me.

I also notice that Sally has revealed as a Lover and has volunteered to be lynched (I think?) Normally I'd be 100% against that, but we aren't appearing to be getting any information at all from the dead thread thus far (at least I haven't been able to tell who's been getting boosted by the dead vote) and with the possibility of wolves killing each other the situation isn't [i]quite[/] as dire as it would be if there was no chance of a wolf dying if we waste a lynch. With no real hard information at all on who was what, I really think we need some solid knowledge.

I'll check back in as I can.

[Nerwen]

Okay, I have to go and it's possible I won't be able to get back online later, so I guess I can't sit on this any longer. I said I had a particular reason for wanting to hear everyone's opinion's of everyone else, and here it is:

I received a pm telling me that the Seer had dreamed two wolves, Macalaure and Lottie.

It was *not* explained to me why I was being sent this interesting communication, nor can I find anything about it in the rules. Maybe this is a once-off thing (on the Seer's death?), or maybe a different person has been sent dreams each Night. Maybe the Dead are involved, or the mystery role. I honestly have no idea.

I realise I have no way of backing any of this up, and am asking you all to take my word for it, but I do think there's decent circumstantial evidence against both Lottie and Mac.