Quote:
Originally Posted by Shelob
Mithalwen was the person I almost voted for on Day 2.
|
I too would have voted for
Mithalwen on Day 2 ... had she been playing. :p
Having reviewed my notes, it has become clear to me that one can analyse 'til the cows come home and still be completley, utterly and hopelessly
wrong. :rolleyes:
Here are some gems:
On analysing the Night 2 kills:
Quote:
Glirdan is almost certainly not the Bear (and therefore may be worth keeping around).
|
Kitanna had voted for
Glirdan the previous Day, and I figured that the Bear would not take the risk of killing someone who voted for them when he could kill almost anyone else with little risk. I figured wrong!
On Day 2:
Quote:
If the Wolves are trying to set up Alcarillo, we need to look at:
Gil-Galad
Azaelia
WaynetheGoblin
Folwren
Glirdan
|
As I understand it, the Wolves
were trying to set up Alcarillo. But working that out sent me in completely the wrong direction!
After learning the Night 3 kills:
Quote:
The phantom had two dreams: probably SpM and mormegil. Possibly Shelob.
|
This is about the only thing I got right all game ...
Quote:
I am now pretty certain that Shelob is innocent and most likely the other Shirriff.
|
I can't remember why I thought this now. It was something that
Shelob said about
mormegil or vice versa. I compounded my error by compiling the following list at the outset of Day 3:
Quote:
*Top suspects: Azaelia, Glirdan, Kath and Holbytlass.
*Level 2 suspects: Folwren, Gil-Galadand Nilpaurion.
*Don’t knows: Cailin, Durelin, WaynetheGoblin.
*Non-Wolves: Meneltarmacil, Shelob, wilwarin.
|
Now that's just ridiculous. But it was based on my belief (on the basis of what I thought was pretty good evidence) that
Azaelia was a Wolf, and also my assumption that
Shelob was the other Shirriff. At least when
Nilp revealed himself, I was able to move
Shelob off the bottom row. In fact, she went straight up to a Level 2 suspect.
Of course, things changed during the course of the Day and, had I not died on Night 4, I would have been looking at
Holbytlass,
Kath and
Shelob very closely. Maybe I would have followed through with my suspicions of
Shelob. But I suspect that it's more likely that I would have voted in a similar way to the other innocents on Days 4, 5 and 6.
So you see Wolves. You really didn't need to kill me at all. :D