Oh, my. I must say I am quite trembling right now. And I must also say I don't have any particularly clear ideas now. I was quite convinced about Sally.

There are two Wolves around here still. But who now? I really find it hard to believe Nerwen is one, even though Sally seemed so convinced about her. But then, who else? If you are, Nerwen, then you deserve an applause, in any case. The death of Rikae in such a case, as a well-orchestrated bluff, and everything... But Nogrod was killed, and he spoke yesterDay about Nerwen positively. Would it make sense for her to kill him? I don't think so, unless it was a double-bluff counting with that we are not going to suspect her after Nogrod died. The trouble is, if she is a wolf, all the things between her and Rikae were a bluff, so such a behavior would go with the overall scheme. So, all in all, I think such reasoning is not proving anything much either way.

After I looked at McCaber yesterDay, I said I don't think it's probable that he'd be a Wolf - unless he and Nerwen are. Now what I am to think? If McCaber was lurking in the shadows all the time, well, why not. Shasta is the one I have probably the best feeling about. And then there is Gwathagor... well, it was spoken about the matter many times before: his "pre-emptiveness" and other things. If the wolves are Nerwen and Gwathagor, then they did really well in avoiding the lynch this far. Or, other possibility is that Gwathagor is a wolf and someone else with him...
There is also the question of the voting on Day 3. Unless both wolves voted for Rikae, at least one of them is Gwathagor or Shasta.

In any case, we should take care toDay with the voting, and this is no time for experiments. Also we should not vote hastily or jump at someone's bandwagon, as the wolves may place up a vote and hope to catch us upon that.

Most probably, I would vote for Nerwen or Gwathagor. I spoke about my reluctance to vote Nerwen earlier. I would like to hear other opinions first, and let's hope we reach a conclusion and get a wolf. If possible, all innocents should vote together toDay. So, I am waiting for your input, people. I am probably going to try to re-read some older posts still if I don't stumble upon anything.

I really don't know... we have to get a wolf today, or we lose. I suppose it's a 40% chance, with five people alive.

Especially with Sally being innocent, I'm really looking at Nerwen right now, but everyone seems more suspicious than they did yesterday. Is Gwathagor really as newbish as he seems? McCaber isn't always around, is he a wolf-in-shadows? Could Legate be eviler than he appears?

I don't know...

Legate, while he voted against Nerwen the day before, was very quick to turn against Rikae after Menel was killed - perhaps he is the wolf who hid amongst the Rikae-voters? As Legate points out in his last post, it's likely one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Is it possible that both wolves who remain voted against Rikae?

Nerwen might be innocent given her opposition to Rikae and this statement in post #101: "Tip: you also want to watch out for people whose interactions seem "staged", if you know what I mean. Wolves quite often claim to suspect one another." If she's a wolf, then she's practically accusing herself. The only thing I've got against her is that Rikae voted against her in post #261, and Rikae is tricky.

McCaber...I don't have anything concrete, I feel like he's honest. :confused: McCaber, you mentioned a potential Rikae-Nerwen conspiracy back in post #343, and the idea has been brought up a couple of other times. Do you have any more thoughts on the possibility?

Now Shasta, if a wolf, would be the proverbial wolf-in-the-shadows, suspicious primarily because of his lack of strong opinion one way or the other, which looks like an attempt to stay on everyone's good side. There's also LG's post #339, which points out the most suspicious thing Shastanis has done thus far, that is, voting for Nerwen while professing to suspect Rikae. Of course, you wouldn't expect ALL the wolves to vote for Rikae. He has said some stuff that sounds innocent, but Nogrod, too, suspected him (post #344) based on his Nerwen vote.

Based on all that and a great deal of instinct (human instinct!), I suspect Legate and Shasta of being the two remaining wolves. Nerwen and McCaber are innocent.

There is one other thing I am curious about, in addition to the possibility of a Nerwen-Rikae plot, and that is the idea that Menel may have dreamed about Shasta. Does anybody find this likely? It's been mentioned a couple times, and I'm just wondering where it came from and if it has any credibility. As Shasta pointed out, we'd better get a wolf today or it's taps for the good guys.

Good to see someone posting. Well, I did not have much time, and not that I would stumble upon much that would help me. I at least looked at the voting records and when I wrote them next to each other in Excel, I really fully realised how it looks like when we have two Day 3 Nerwen-voters among us. It indeed looks improbable that there won't be at least one Wolf among them, and as I said, I am more inclined to think that it is Gwathagor than Shasta (when of course, they may be both still).

However, there's another thing I thought about, and that is if Gwath is a Wolf and Nerwen is as well, what sense it would have for Gwath to vote Nerwen on Day 3. He won't vote Rikae, and therefore seem suspicious (well, if she was lynched; but if he voted her, she most probably will), but even voting Nerwen would be voting for a fellow Wolf - thus, no gain either. The only explanation could be that he used this opportunity to safely vote for a fellow wolf. Well, which is also possible, eventually.

I will go to sleep soon, so hope that everyone will show up meanwhile, and I hope to sort my thoughts also. I would prefer to vote then, as a last-minute voting fray at DL is the last thing we need under these circumstances.

Gwath, a correction - I never voted Nerwen! And I also didn't say that there is likely at least one wolf among Rikae-voters, but I said there is probably at least one wolf among the people who voted Nerwen.

At least I said that I find it likely, and I believe someone else did as well (Sally? I don't know) and it was based on the conclusion that Menel suspected Shasta on Day 1 and he did not mention him later. Nogrod proposed the other thing, that Menel dreamt of him. I think both are equally possible, and in any case, we know Nogrod was innocent now.

Ordinarily, this is where I'd rail against Nerwen and say something about burning the heretic, but even I'm beginning to have some doubts.

I still suspect Nerwen, but the circumstances make me think thrice before I do anything serious.

Gwath plays very well in parts, but at other times he makes elementary mistakes. I'm inclined to think he's just newbish, but he's been newbish at the most inappropriate times.

Shasta, even more than myself, has been the quiet one. He's been there when it matters, but he has not contributed enough. (heh, like I'm the one to be saying that. It's still true, though.)

After a close look at Legate on the last Night, I think that he has had his suspicious moments, but the man looks honest enough to me.

Oh. Sorry. I understood this part: "Unless both wolves voted for Rikae, at least one of them is Gwathagor or Shasta" to mean that you thought that at least one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Anyway, if you find it likely that ONE of the wolves voted for Nerwen, then it's logical that ONE voted for Rikae as well.

And it seems I just imagined your vote for Nerwen. I guess I'm getting ahead of myself here...attribute it to my Irish rashness.:cool:

Example of Legate trying to innocuously establish his fellow wolf's innocence? The Seer is as incontrovertible as they come...though Legate does point out that Menel may have dreamt of Nogrod as well. Of course, it would look funny if he was too single-minded in his assertion of Shasta's innocence...

Triple post.

Legate, could you post the voting records together in one post so we could all compare them?

Well, seems at least all but one of us have posted - good. I would really like to see Nerwen post, but who knows what time it is at her.

By saying "at least" meant at least one, maybe two (though I think rather just one). Cf. my post above.

Yup, of course - here:

McCaber
Day 1 no vote
Day 2 Nerwen (after DL)
Day 3 Rikae
Day 4 Nerwen

Nerwen
Day 1 no vote
Day 2 Mac
Day 3 Rikae
Day 4 Sally

Shasta
Day 1 Menel
Day 2 no vote? I was running around the thread for about 10 minutes and not been able to find it.
Day 3 Nerwen
Day 4 Nerwen

Gwathagor
Day 1 Aganzir
Day 2 Sally
Day 3 Nerwen
Day 4 Sally

Legate
Day 1 Sally
Day 2 Mac
Day 3 Rikae
Day 4 Sally

Anyway - I am going to sleep now. Even after reading toDay, I am most leaning towards Gwath or Nerwen (I want to see her post in any case). McCaber and Shasta will be very "random" from my point of view. But I hope that at least one of the two I named first it is. Of course we have to pick just one, and that's the real trick. Well, goodbye for now. See you in some 9 or so hours.

"I'm nearly convinced that one of Nerwen and Sally is a wolf, and I believe the second wolf may be found in Gwath or McCaber. Unfortunately we can't be wrong twice, or we lose."

Based on this comment by Shasta in post #384, I would say that if Shasta is a wolf, that Nerwen could not also be a wolf, and vice-versa.


"Anyway - I am going to sleep now. Even after reading toDay, I am most leaning towards Gwath or Nerwen (I want to see her post in any case). McCaber and Shasta will be very "random" from my point of view. But I hope that at least one of the two I named first it is."

And, based on this comment by Legate in his last post, I would suggest that Legate and Nerwen cannot BOTH be wolves.

In both cases, I believe we are too close to The End for wolves to try to kill each other. So, process of elimination leaves some combination of McCaber, Shasta, and Legate. I've already mentioned that I am as convinced of McCaber's innocence as I have been of anybody's, which leaves Shasta and Legate (or a very clever McCaber).

Wait, I forgot Nerwen. She might be a cunning wolf like Rikae, but I don't have anything substantial to post about her yet. I'll come back when I do.

Hello, everyone.

First off, I'd liked to say that I am totally confounded by Sally's behaviour. It wasn't just the circumstances around her– to me, the tone of her posts yesterday sounded incredibly wolfish. I was afraid of this happening, though– just because she's Sally, and you never know where you are with her.

So, here we go. Two of you are wolves. Which?

Note: if I am forced to vote to save myself, I will do so, because I am the one person I know is innocent. But I'd much prefer my vote to go to my top suspect... not that I've worked out who that is, yet.

Ha ha. Today is going to be so hard. 2 vs. 3!

Gwathagor: I keep flip-flopping on him. From some angles, he looks like an honestly confused newbie– from others, like a wolf-cub who has been coached to act that way.

Points against him:

1. Rikae's failure to vote him when she was in danger.
2. The general "pre-emptiveness" other people have noted about him.
3. The fact that he voted me rather than Rikae, when there was such a massive case against her.

What to make of things like his (apparent) confusion over the rules, or like his recent post (#403) where he misrepresents the way Legate voted? For the latter, I'm inclined to think that a wolf wouldn't risk being caught in such an obvious lie... but then it might all be part of the act.

All I can say is that if is he is a wolf, he's the apprentice of somebody very sneaky indeed.

McCaber: Has been practically invisible most of the game. Main contribution (thanks a lot) was to start the whole "Nerwen and Rikae are wolves together" thing.

I thought yesterDay that Sally was a wolf, making use of an ordo's suggestion– but now we know she was innocent, so maybe it was the other way round? I mean that McCaber "idly" threw out the idea, to see if anyone would fall for it– and Sally jumped right in.

Big thing against his being a wolf is that he voted to lynch Rikae. But there is this: after killing Menel, the wolves must have considered Rikae a goner. Doubtless one or both of the others were planning to lynch her next Day. Now, her brilliant self-defence may have made them both change their minds– but then again it may not.

So– if McCaber is a wolf, and he decided to let his comrade die– would he not have taken the opportunity to cast suspicion on someone else? From here, the way my aggressive wolf-hunting has been twisted into a mark of guilt looks diabolically cunning.

(Remember, despite what Sally claimed, I did not suddenly turn on Rikae when it was already clear she was going down.)

On the other hand– I expected a wolfish McCaber to start a hue-and-cry after me toDay, and he hasn't so far.

Edit: word left out.

Shasta: One of the non-Rikae voters on Day 3 surely has to be a wolf– and if it's not Gwath, it's Shasta.

As far as I'm concerned, one of the people who pushed the "Nerwen/Rikae" theory is very likely a wolf– and if it's not McCaber, it's Shasta.

Like McCaber, he hasn't posted much and his posts have mostly lacked substance.

However, there's always the possibility that Menel dreamed of him and found him innocent. But then, maybe he dreamed of Nogrod.

Edit: fixed bolding.

Legate of Amon Lanc:

Shadowy the first few Days; has recently become more vocal. Generally seems helpful and logical.

Found Gwath unsuspicious yesterDay and suspicious toDay, from his very first post– why?

Rikae's rather anaemic attacks on him– possible wolf-on-wolf?

There's also the apparently contradictory reasons he gave for why Mac had supposedly killed Lommy– I'm still waiting for the explanation.

On the face of it, Legate is the least wolfish of the four– but, even though the wolves have had more than their share of luck, I can't help fearing we may have an evil mastermind at work– and I could see Legate as fitting the bill.

That said, I wouldn't be too happy voting him on so little evidence.

This makes a lot of sense, I think.

Post #403 was just a slip-up on my part...if I was a wolf trying to subvert the population, I would first of all get my facts straight. I'll go back and check on it, though, because I thought for sure that Legate voted for Nerwen.

Sorry, but this just makes me raise an eyebrow. You 'forgot' Nerwen? After all the suspicion against her today?

I will definitely agree with caution on this Day. If we make one wrong vote, the wolves will be able to force a win.

I've had an almost irrational hatred of Nerwen, but she hasn't given me much to suspect her in the last few days. I'm rethinking my position of her.

I think that if Shasta was a wolf he would have posted more often than he did. Just a thought, mind you, but he still hasn't given me enough to go on. I'm leaning more towards suspicious/innocent, but that's giving him the benefit of the doubt.

I do agree that Legate could be our evil mastermind, but if he is, he's playing a great game just because he's given me nothing to suspect.

Gwath looks the most suspicious to me, but at least half of that could be attributed to his newness. Every so often he makes a brilliant thought that changes my opinion, though. He could be the acolyte to Legate or Nerwen's master.

I guess I need to be more consistent.

And yes, Shasta, I forgot Nerwen. But only for a couple of minutes, after which I pointed out that I had forgotten her. If I was trying to be sneaky, that wouldn't be the way to do it.

As you say, McCaber, we need to be cautious and go with the safest vote. I still maintain that a Legate/Shasta pair is the most reasonable, and that Legate is the safest vote out of those two. I think was clear in my reasoning, but I can elaborate if anyone needs me to.

Please do, Gwath.:)

Hmm. After this last post of Gwath's, I'm fairly confident that Nerwen and Gwath are our wolves, but I'm hesitant to vote...

Ok, let's see if I can remember all this.

I think that Legate and Shasta are the guilty parties.

First, at least one of the Rikae voters has to be a wolf. In my opinion, Legate is more suspicious than Nerwen and McCaber, because of how little controversy he has caused or been involved in. I also do not trust Legate because he accuses everybody and nobody; his posts tend to be feel-good and safe. Post #401 is a good example. He mentions just about everyone, attaches a medium-sized portion of suspicion to those he mentions, and then proceeds to go with the flow when it comes time to vote.

Second, at least one of those who voted for Nerwen, rather than Rikae, is probably a wolf as well...which means that it must be Shasta. Shasta, like Legate, hasn't done much either to vindicate or condemn himself throughout this whole game. LG and Nogrod, in posts #339 and #344, respectively, identified Shasta's vote for Nerwen as wolfish, given his professed suspicion of Rikae.

Third, comments by Shasta (in post #384) and Legate (in his last post) in my opinion exclude the possibility that either both Legate and Nerwen or both Shasta and Nerwen could be wolves. McCaber is the other guy, and he seems more innocent than any of us, which leaves Nerwen with no possible compatriots (apart from myself, I know, I know), which means that Legate and Shasta must be wolves.

Fourth, Rikae, in post #177, listed players according to how suspicious she was of them. Neither Legate nor Shasta were listed under her Unwolfy category. They were also listed under separate categories. This is not hard evidence, but it would corroborate the idea that Shasta and Legate are Rikae's fellow wolves since Rikae would neither want to draw attention to them by listing both as Unwolfy, nor by listing them under the same category. Instead, she played it safe by making Legate Wolfyest (together with LG and Nerwen) and Shasta Wolfy. No one cares about the Wolfy category (it's too ordinary...everybody thinks everyone else is at least a little Wolfy) and there wasn't any substantial suspicion directed at Legate, so making him Wolfyest was also safe.

Fifth, in post #405 it looks like Legate is stretching the business of the Seer in an attempt to clear Shasta's name. This is a weaker point than some of my others, but it fits if I'm right on the other bits.

That's the best I can do for now. The trouble is, both Legate and Shasta have said very little of great substance during this game.

Wait...if I am a wolf, and so is Nerwen, then how do you figure out our voting habits? Why would I, who really went after Rikae until her brilliant "breakdown" (still sore about that...), switch my vote and try to kill Nerwen, who, according to your scheme, is also a wolf? If I was trying to prevent Rikae's death, then I would vote for someone else who WASN'T a wolf. As it was, Nerwen nearly got hanged the day before and it was very close on Day 3 as well. I surely would have recognized that the anti-Nerwen sentiment hadn't gone away, and killing one wolf to save another doesn't make sense, especially since Rikae was in such dire straits; if I was trying to save her, then the only thing I have accomplished is making myself look wolfish by association. Had I been successful in trying to save Rikae, then Nerwen would have been hanged, and Rikae would have been hanged the next day. I'd be a stupid, lonely wolf.

Laying cards on the table:

I am going to sleep now. When I wake up, I am either going to vote for Shasta or Legate. I don't care which, but one of them had better get three votes by the deadline.

Goodnight everybody.

Problem, Gwathagor:

Your fourth and fifth points are worth looking into, but this piece of reasoning

and this one

seem to be based purely on your knowledge of your own innocence. No ordo knows your role.

Why?

All right, so that makes all of us posting here. As I said, I'd prefer to vote sooner, as I'm going to leave in about two hours and then be back only at the DL itself.

Nerwen's posts do not strike me as suspicious by themselves, but that's just the thing I thought about her most of the time. However, all the voting of Rikae's and other things... Gwath looks very active toDay, raising suspicions on people all around, which supports my suspicions of him. Right now I think him more wolfy than Nerwen (I should say "more apparently wolfy"), but Nerwen is likely to be one as well. The trouble is, as I said, that if one of them isn't, and we choose the wrong one... well. Not sure what to think of Gwath's "forgetting" Nerwen, also, because if they are together, would a Wolf really forget to write about his packmate? A slip? Or what is that?

I was slightly suspecting him even yesterDay, on this "pre-emptiveness" of him, only I still suspected Sally yesterDay, so I let him go for the time. ToDay however, we have a Wolf or nothing, and also by elimination method, it's you or him. Or both, in the best case.

I already said it and more than once - a kill that does not leave many tracks, and yet it could help the Wolves. But that's past and Mac was innocent, why to bring that up?

Yes. That is true. It is the only concrete thing I have to go on. Not everyone is likely to accept it, but I'm hoping my consistent reasoning will maybe win people over.

Because both posts involve strong comments/suspicions/accusations by Legate and Shasta concerning you, which, were two of you (you and one of them) wolves, would be foolish to make at this late and unforgiving stage of the game. Far too dangerous.

Not so. I suspect you,(Legate) and Shasta.

I've already explained, in post #427, why Nerwen and I can't both be wolves, in answer to Shasta's suggestion of that possibility.

NOW goodnight. Seriously.

Well, if you look up I wrote about it as well - but I also said that technically, you may have voted for Nerwen back then so that you are not suspected in the future. Which is just what you are saying to us now. There is the thing you voted Sally yesterDay, and not Nerwen anymore. If you suspected her, why not vote her also the Day after? Instead, you joined the village "bandwagon" - and it may be that you avoided endangering a fellow Wolf then. Of course, it's only a theory. But remember that if we get a wolf toDay, there will be also one more toMorrow. We cannot rule out any possibility.

But the question at hand is toDay's lynch. I don't really think Shasta and McCaber are wolves together. At least one of Nerwen and Gwath is likely a wolf. If Nerwen is innocent, then Gwath as a Nerwen-voter most probably is one. Well, that's probably the best I can come up with. I think Gwath is the most probable... But we cannot afford mistakes; what do you others think?

Legate– I understand your position on Gwathagor– but if you are innocent, please rethink on Shasta and McCaber. They seem, if anything, more wolfish to me than he does. I don't see how you can say they’re eliminated.

Gwathagor, similarly– please remember that while Legate is clever enough to be a very dangerous wolf, there's little or no concrete evidence against him. He’s certainly not a “safe” vote, as you seem to think.

Edit: word left out.

Well, that's nice, but what am I supposed to do? Once again you sound almost genuine here, but on the other hand, if you two are wolves and I vote for someone else, then it's over.

Voting Shasta or McCaber, from my point of view, is really shooting in the dark. I said what I think about them. I said what I think about Gwath.

Look - I have to leave in a few minutes. If it goes well, I will have chance to appear around here in about two hours from now, which is still long enough before DL. I hope to think meanwhile and sort my thoughts out for final. Because then, I will be here only at the DL itself, or very short before it.

Hm, not much time anyway. I am here only to pop in (and I must say it's fun posting from the school library, I am not used to it), and say I will be here only very shortly before DL. I would like to vote now but as no one is around, and I'd prefer to consult it first... let's hope I make it in good time still. I voiced my opinions before, and nothing changed them. Well, see you then.

I think this is probably the latest I've voted, and still I vote first. I have to, though, I have class soon.

++Gwathagor

And let slip the dogs of war.

An explanation for this irrational behavior would be that Legate is trying to protect Shasta.

Perhaps. But like I said, whether we vote for Shasta or Legate makes no difference to me. If we get one today, and we find out that we were right, then we can get the other one tomorrow.

I realize that I am pushing the Legate/Shasta thing very hard.

And if we find out we were wrong, we are all dead. At least three of us are.

Okay, I am here.

Well, I would like to hope that we are right this time. In any case, everything will be clear in the evening, unless all the remaning people vote for Gwathagor. I still think Nerwen is the other one. Now that Shasta voted, unless McCaber is... or unless Gwath is innocent, which I don't want to even think about.

All right. There is no other choice now anyway.

++Gwathagor