I still feel Lommy and Shasta are innocent.

I feel that Nogrod and Kath aren't.

I think Greenie might be evil.

I don't know about Brinniel or phantom.

Grah.

I feel Eonwe is innocent.

I think Nerwen might be evil.

What do you think of Kath, Nog?

"Now that's an eye opener and no mistake"

Good Work Cobbler Assassin

The question is: What do you think of Kath, Dury?

Brinn, Nog and Lommy started a very late bandwagon against Fea yesterday. I had wondered where it had come from when I discovered she'd be lynched. They're going on and on about not having a flurry of last minute voting and bandwagons and there they go and do the exact same thing. I don't think they're suspicious for voting for her, she was second on my list, but I think the manner of it most odd.

Ah, and to answer something from Nog yesterDay. Just because I'm not suspecting you doesn't mean anything. With phantom, Fea and Nilp in the game you barely got my attention in terms of automatic suspicion. Now, however, after yesterDay, you've got it. Brinn too actually, more so than Lommy for some reason though I'm not sure why.

Let's make these clear - lending Eönwe's list and adding to it...

Day 1:

Lommy: Nogrod (1)
Shasta: Kitanna [ordo](1)
Gwath [seer]: Kitanna [ordo](2)
Greenie: Gwath [seer](1)
Durelin: Gwath [seer](2)
Mith [cobbler]: Kitanna [ordo](3)
Nilp [ordo]: Kitanna [ordo](4)
Lalaith [ordo]: Ye phantome (1)
Nogrod: Groin [ordo](1)
Brinn: Greenie (1)
Nerwen: Kitanna [ordo](5)
+ Ye phantome: Lalaith [ordo](1)
+ Eönwë: Greenie (2)

Lynched: Kitanna [ordo]

Night 2:

Killed: Lalaith [ordo]
Assassinated: -

Day 2:

Shasta: Ye phantome (1)
Form [cobbler]: Ye phantome (2)
Fea [ordo]: Shasta (1)
Nilp [ordo]: Gwath [seer] (1)
Kath: Lommy (1)
Durelin: Nogrod (1)
Eönwë: Gwath [seer] (2)
Greenie: Gwath [seer] (3)
Mith [cobbler]: Lommy (2)
Ye phantome: Gwath [seer](4)
Brinn: Durelin (1)
Nerwen: Lommy (3)
Nogrod: Durelin (2)

Lynched: Gwath [seer]

Night 3:

Killed: Mith [cobbler]
Assassinated: -


Day 3:
Greenie: Form [cobbler] (1)
Durelin: Fea [ordo] (1)
Brinniel: Fea [ordo] (2)
Shasta: Form [cobbler] (2)
Lommy: Fea [ordo] (3)
Nogrod: Fea [ordo] (4)
the phantom: Form [cobbler] (3)

Night 4:

Killed: Nilp [ordo]
Assassinated: Form [cobbler]


On Day 3, seven of thirteen voted!!!

This can not be.


EDIT: X'd from Dury's first one onwards.

And there was Dury. But actually it's not a bandwaggon when only one person votes.

Hey! I was just about to do that.

As I said earlier I do think she might be a cobbler or then she just plays differently - looking at her points there it might be a reasonable assumption added with the scarcity of time and all that.

But this is mutual between us. I tend to suspect her of any possible evil there is whatever the situation... and similarily she may be lost from my view if something more eye-catching comes about but when that is over I tend to turn to back suspecting her. Like she does with me. :rolleyes:

But you need to look at when and why people make their votes! Dury was indeed voting safe... indeed the "safest" of us all as there had been talk about voting Fea and some people agreeing and she just began it for real. That's a good place for a wolf.

A list of votes may tell you a thing or two but you should also look back at the times of the votes and the reasons given to them at that particular time of discussion to get a fuller picture.

Although I still think Dury's remark on Mith's general innocence makes her more an innocent than a wolf.

You, on the other hand, were in the bandwaggoning position. You turned it from a suspicion into a lynch candidate. After someone gets three votes, people just attach themselves onto that or one of the others with a similar amount of votes.

Worse than that.

I started talking about lynching Fea in the first place and the others sticked to it as they clearly were as confused as I was.

But the wolves (and possibly cobblers) at that time... They must have thought of my "case-making" as a heaven sent gift... :mad:

So I'd really look at that Fea-waggon with that in mind. I supplied the wood but the ignition was a responsibility of four (Dury, Brinn, Lommy and me).

The sad thing is that at least towards the end the wolves might have thought it better to separate themselves from the lynching crowd and make themselves look good *cough Shasta, cough tp*

And who says Greenie is innocent as she writes seldomly and votes early? That's the safest position...

I'm coming back in a minute with the non-voter-stuff so let it be for now...

I'm going to leave Kath alone for the time being. I really don't think she's a Wolf. She could be a Cobbler, but then so could just about anyone. Plus we still have our Assassin to help with those.

I came away from Day 2 viewing Nerwen as good, and since she wasn't around yesterday my opinion hasn't changed. I'd like to see what her take is after being removed from us for a bit.

I'm thinking that if Nog is evil he is a Werewolf rather than a Cobbler.

Eonwe and Lommy I think are innocent.

I don't have a solid opinion about Brin, Durelin, Shasta, and Green. I swung back and forth between "certainly guilty" and "definitely innocent" during my last skim-through.

Those of us who have voted everyDay:
Shasta
Durelin
Brinniel
Nogrod
Greenie

the phantom - was a minute late on Day1.
Lommy - was late on Day2 because of a misunderstanding as we shared the same computer the three of us.


Those not voting everyDay:
Eönwe - voted an hour late on Day1, did not vote on Day3.
Nerwen - did not vote on Day3.
Kath - did not post or vote on Day1, did not voter on Day3.


My conclusions about that:
Eönwe, Nerwen and Kath look more innocent than guilty because of their failures. If we're looking at the wolves they would vote everytime humanely possible.

That means I will not think of any of the three "non-voters" as granted innocents but will have it as my general "working hypothesis". And anyhow. Someone winning a game by consciously not-posting doesn't earn the victory. It will taste shallow in her/his mouth and we others will scorn that kind of victory.


So I believe our wolves are among those who have voted all the time. Criss-crossing a table with whom I have left unnoticed and who have voted everyDay will give me the "search-book" for this Day (eg. tomorrow after work).

Good night!

Do something!

Anything!


EDIT X'd with tp.

Dury and Brinn?

It would fit many schemes... not the least yesterDay's action.

Just a gut-feeling. I'll try to look at it after I've slept and had a full day's work...

Hello. Anyone around?

I'm really sorry about my absence on Day 3. I couldn't help it, though.

I still think Phantom is a possible cobbler. Something about his "vote to save Fea" yesterday seemed very forced to me. She already had four votes to Form's three, counting his own, and I'm virtually sure Phantom can at least count that high. :p

No, it looks fishy to me. And trust me. I'm a roane. I know what fish smells like.

tp has certainly managed to create plenty of confusion– I'm certainly not prepared to say he isn't a cobbler. However– to give him the benefit of the doubt– there were a whole lot of votes coming in the last few minutes, and it's very easy to lose track in that situation. *shrugs*

warning- sarcasm ahead...
 

Something about me voting for Form over Fea was forced, eh?

Yeah, because goodness knows I didn't suspect Form at all.

Oh, no wait- I did. For two days.

And goodness knows I wouldn't want to save Fea, because we've never played WW together and done a couple of RPGs together and traded thousands of PMs/emails/IMs over the years.

Oh, no wait- we have.

Doesn't really seem that forced given the fact that I was on good terms with Fea and suspecting Form.

You're grasping desperately here Shasta. You worried that I'm innocent or something and want me out of the way?
Oh yes, because I knew for certain that my vote would be the final vote cast, because there wasn't anyone else left to vote.

Oh, no wait- six people hadn't voted yet. Which means all Fea needed to save her was ONE of those six people to come in and vote Form. Obviously it was a possibility.

Yeesh, Shasta, it's like you're not even trying.

Either that or you're trying too hard.

Okay, I don't know how helpful this will be, but I'm going to attempt to rule out a couple of WW pairs based on the voting.

Day 1:
Leaders were proven non-Wolves. No conclusions.

Day 2:
Nerwen & Lommy probably not a pair.
Kath & Lommy probably not a pair.
Durelin & Nogrod probably not a pair.

Day 3:
Leaders were proven non-Wolves. No conclusions.

I assume he meant your explanation, rather than the vote itself– there wasn't much chance of saving Fea at the time you posted. But it's been known for multiple votes to come in at the absolute last second.


I can't really see anything in it.

Well, first off, all it would have taken is one single person voting for Form and Fea would've been saved. It really wasn't that far fetched.

As far as bothering to say "I'm gonna save Fea"- that was primarily for Fea's benefit. For her to see, I mean.

Some first quick thoughts:

Possible wolves:
Durelin
Thinlómien

Possible cobblers:
Kath

Unsure:
Shastanis Althreduin
Nerwen
Nogrod
A Little Green
the phantom

Probably innocent:
Eönwë

Hmm...obviously I have some work to do...

Perhaps those who more consistently don't vote or are behind on the Days are less likely to be wolves, but just because someone isn't around or doesn't vote for one Day definitely doesn't lessen the possibilty of them being a wolf. I know when I was a wolf before I would sometimes have packmates that didn't show up and vote for whatever RL reasons (though usually it was only for one Day)...and those wolves tend to last longer because they so easily slip under the radar.

Hello. Anyone here?

You know, I have the same feeling. :rolleyes: But at least there's still plenty of us loudmouths around - to make cases against each other. :D I mean, I'm really going to look into the relationship between you and Durelin toDay, but I think I should concentrate on those who slip under my radar too...

Speaking of which...

Are awake under my reindeer
Nogrod
Shasta
Durelin
Eönwë

Doze under my reindeer
tp - Yes, tp slips under my radar, in a way. Could you believe that? But I'm so used to him being around and being like that that I really don't pay attention to him. As if he was something not to bother about, like "oh, he's an ordo or a cobbler, it will be found out sooner or later" and it's rather troubling. (I guess I'm ignoring him the same way you start to ignore constant background noises. :p) I guess it's because he really doesn't seem very suspicious to me. I should just know better than to trust him.
Greenie - I think I should be a tad more critical towards her and not just trust my gut-feeling of her innocence.
Brinniel - Funny, it always crosses my mind that she's suspicious, but it never develops into a proper suspicion. It is weird. And it's bad too. If I have extra time toDay I might have a look at her posts just to see whether she truly merits suspicion or not.

Sleep under my reindeer
Kath - The only thing I that comes to my mind when I think of her in this game is: she suspects me and doesn't suspect Nogrod. And the fact that she hasn't been around much. That's not very good, is it?
Nerwen - She seemed innocent early on, so I just mentally stamped her as an innocent and if she's a wolf, that's just way too bad.

Yeah, that's real madness. I mean, it's totally possible that among those seven there were just three ordos and then the two wolves and two cobblers... so it is possible that more than a half of the votes given yesterDay were evil. And that indeed is a scary thought.

Here I must defend her a little. She never is a loudmouth in these games. Yet she contributes, so why complain? Not all of us want to dedicate all of our free time to ww. And as for voting early, you know the deadline is 11pm our time and that she and I share a computer. She prefers to vote a bit earlier and then leave the computer for me for the last moments, while she goes and brushes her teeth etc so she can go to sleep as soon as I stop typing, but I still have all my pre-bedtime activities to do and get to go to sleep later than she does. I'd call her behaviour understandable - who would not like to go to sleep at 11pm if they have to wake up before 7am? (Granted, it is a good cover though if she's a wolf and I do not think her role affects whether she prefers voting and going to sleep earlier or later.)

I agree.

I'm heading off for bed (yes, extremely late I know), but before I go I just wanted to express that I'm most concerned about Durelin. Her posts toDay and yesterDay make me uneasy, and whether it's as a wolf or cobbler, I really think she's up to no good. I would elaborate, but I'm tired...so that'll have to wait until I wake up. Hopefully I won't oversleep... :rolleyes:

Nogrod and Durelin
 

Day 1

#8 Durelin on Nogrod
Regular Day1 bantering, doesn't reveal anything.

#66 Dury on Nog
Quite bold if they're fellow wolves, something unnecessary. Than again, there's nothing incriminating, so why not...?


Day2

#169 Dury on Noggie
At this phase, it could be anything... but it's a little bold of her to accuse him even this much at this phase if they're indeed fellows as there had been other people suspecting him too...

#201 Dury on Noggie
Nothing to say.

#230 Dury on Noggie
- says she still feels bad about him and has him on her baddie list -
I find myself saying this again: they could be fellows, but in that case, they are quite bold. Although, one should note how she both defends and suspects him...

#233 Dury on Noggie
!!! - she votes him -
Now this is quite bold. Even though, she kind of drove herself to a point where she couldn't have voted anyone else without looking suspicious. It wasn't that risky to vote him as there really wasn't that much suspicion of him around, but then again, this was relatively early in the Day, and anything could have happened later...

#288 Nog on Dury
- he votes her -
Now, this is the perfect bold wolf retaliation.


Day3

#309 Nog on Dury
- just mentions her in a Mith-summary -
Well, obviously, this doesn't make us any wiser...

#316 Nog on Dury
- A Durylysis. Basically, he concludes that making the analysis didn't make him any more or less suspicious of her. -
Like I said, what I find funny in the analysis is that it looks like he assumes she knows the other villagers' roles.

#320 Nog on Dury
Now this is the perfect thing to say about a fellow wolf. Also, a perfect excuse for stopping suspecting her. And lastly, I disagree with him about this pointing at Durelin's innocence. It really doesn't.

#325 Dury on Nog
- Explains herself to him. -
Nothing fishy here.

#350 Nog on Dury
- lists her as one of those he has "actually suspected in this game" -
Funny, because he really didn't that much. Okay, he went to do that analysis, but after that he didn't suspect her. So he didn't suspect her for a long time at any rate. Maybe half a Day or something like that.

#367Nog on Dury
A wolf could have pointed that out. Ha, actually it even makes sense for a wolf to do so: that is the perfect way of hiding some other reason to kill her, don't you think? And I don't really see why she couldn't just say that aloud and then in the Night realise she's the best kill.

#368 Dury on Nog
- agrees with Nog about Form -
Nothing fishy here, certainly, even though I'm tempted to interpret this as building grounds for a future alliance... ;)

#373 Dury on Nog
Wow, she's pretty strong about it. Maybe my theory doesn't make sense?

#380 Dury on Nog
Could be playing it safe for a mate, could be just voting someone that has a chance to get lynched.


Day4

#401 Dury on Nog
Pretty vehement, isn't it? On the other hand, it might look suspicious if she dropped it...

#403 Dury on Nog
Interesting...

#410 Nogrod on Durelin
- replies to her question -
Could be anything, really. I still find it interesting how he balances between suspecting her and trusting her...

#412 Nogrod on Durelin
Yeah...

#414 Nogrod on Durelin
- mentions her as one of those who has voted every Day and says those people are the most suspicious -
Again, he's balancing... I didn't get the point of this argument anyway...

#415 Nogrod on Durelin
What a better idea than suggest your fellow is in cahoots with someone else...


Conclusion: The relationship between them is rather interesting. Durelin suspects and attacks Nogrod from rather early on and never drops it. Nogrod starts suspecting her at the end of Day2, then makes a case on Day3, finds a piece of evidence that "proves" her innocence and drops his suspicion, but still kind of continues suspecting her.

I don't really know what to make of it. If they're fellows, they are rather bold. I think they could be, but it feels a bit far-fetched. All in all, Nogrod behaves as if Dury could be his fellow, but she doesn't behave like he could be her fellow.

But there is something odd in there. I don't think they're both innocent. I think it's either that Durelin is a cobbler who thinks Nogrod is innocent and is therefore trying to get him lynched. Or then, Nogrod is a wolf and he's just treating innocent Durelin that way. I can't explain it, but his behaviour towards her looks a little like a wolf treating an innocent who suspects him...


edit: xed with Brinniel

Good analysis, Lommy. Yes, those two could bear watching.



However...

Meaning this?–

You may be reading too much into it.

I know. But I still find it a little weird.

Thanks Lommy for the most enlightening analysis as what comes to Dury. It kind of helps me a bit with making of my mind with her. But I'm going to look at her myself as well.

To cut a long story short and to answer your musings then: I've felt bad with her from her early attacks on me on. Then I finally decided to see whether there was something else than just my bad feeling of her attacking me consistently and with very forcibly made arguments (if there were any). The "Durylysis" didn't help me much but didn't "free" her either. The "Mith is universally innocent" -thing made me doubt her guilt but thanks to you I'm getting over it - and kind of was getting over it already last night (RL) when I started thinking about Dury and Brinn as possibe mates in crime...

I mean I hadn't thought of this before: That would make sense indeed.

Oh, Nog...you just seem so darned evil.

No one can really criticize me, because I don't think we've lynched a person yet based on any real arguments. It's all been "oh, they look like..." or "they feel..." I don't know how many people have voted for someone after actually making a case.

Why? For me it's because I've lacked the energy. I just started classes yesterday and that two people dropped from the game kinda killed some of my energy.

I only make a good wolf or cobbler in this game. I am absolutely terrible at spotting wolves. I don't even know how exactly you spot wolves. But last game a I really felt Nog was innocent after a bit, and this game I've really felt he's evil. I don't know how to explain it, though Lommy's analysis of his interactions and analysis of me makes me suspect him more. Hah, yes, maybe it's just cause he has 'suspected' me off and on.

It feels to me that Nog has been playing up the *help the village* thing this game, and I think he does that as a wolf. He tries to point out things that will help the village and this looks familiar to me:

Ridiculous to call out? Maybe, but I got called out for a "Yay!" after the first wolf was lynched when I was a wolf one game, so I figure I might as well... :p

I make an analysis of Durelin and Nogrod, and what does it cause? They attack each other even more forcefully... This is madness. Are you two sure you aren't both cobblers? :D

I'm really not, I just suck at being good. ><

I have to vote within the hour.

And I'm still looking at Phantom.

Are you a cobbler too? ;) :p

Cobblers: Shasta and Kath
Wolves: Nogrod and Brinniel or Greenie

I'll have to vote in about an hour and a half because I then have class until after the deadline.

I'll try and actually talk about other people besides Nog before that....

Just a reminder: no frivolous voting now. We really have to get a baddie toDay

Actually, we don't have to. We'd just better do so because we haven't killed a single wolf yet and it's already Day4... This is starting to get almost depressing...

Almost depressing???

Good to see something happening.

Do you mean that when I'm innocent I try to get the village in trouble? :)

Oh my reading through and looking at several persons at the same time really takes time -at least from me. I'm only through Day1 now. Just as prelimnary points I'd say that Nerwen and Shasta look good. Of Greenie, Brinn and Dury it's harder to say: there are things drawing on different directions. I hope the later Days give me some more to go.