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Rune Son of Bjarne 04-30-2007 06:31 AM

I think him a better candidate than Rune and Aganzir, they both seem innocent to me.

I would be equally willing to vote Lommy, SPM and Legate.

Nogrod 04-30-2007 06:33 AM

The list is almost like my top five to begin with. :p
(And yes my top suspect is in there too which I'm pretty delighted about)

I hope you keep on understanding me not being too open about all of my convictions but I have time now and could try and see for some points on all of the five.

I hope Mac and Boro could come to share their thoughts. Although they're probably not right in everything they think they're still innocents and thence we should hear their advice as well.

But I'll try to do my part.

Hope you Rikae have a moment or two to spare as well.

And I do hope that you others contribute too. This might be made a lot easier with lively discussion.

Thinlómien 04-30-2007 06:39 AM

Uh-oh. Well that's definitely an interesting piece of news! But the lynch seers seem to be far greater advance for us than I first thought. :D

Of those I could vote Rune, SPM or Legate, since I pretty strongly feel Aganzir is innocent. Of those I'm least suspicious of Rune being a vampire... So I guess my vote is going to be for Legate or SPM. Maybe it'd be better to vote Legate since that might also be getting rid of a possible wolf-slipping-under-radar-because-of-absence. And I have to vote and leave soon (in an hour probably).

The Saucepan Man 04-30-2007 06:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lommiella
Not necessarily. Were you a vampire with some of us, that'd exactly be your defense.

Well, most things said and done in this game can be interpreted either way. Which is why, even with the limitations we have here, the voting record still provide us with some of the best evidence we have. And this is particularly so now, in light of this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod
Rune, Lommy, Aganzir, Spm, Legate - and two wolves (or one wolf & the shade possibly) in there.

... which is incredibly helpful, I think (although also slightly unhelpful to me ... ;) )

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae
I'm inclined to think SPM is the best candidate from that list...who's with me?

Think what you like, but I can assure you that I submitted a vote to the Oracle and, as far as I am aware, it counted in the votes for Menel. Would I really have been banging on about the Menel vote if it was likely to prove this unhelpful to the Vampires ...? Oh wait. Yes, because that would be exactly my defence. :rolleyes:

Rune and Legate seem the most likely candidates to me, although I still wonder whether Rune might be the Shade.

I was thinking of voting for Shasta but, in light of this information, I will cast my vote as follows:

++Legate

I must vote now, as I will not be back before the deadline.

Current stated votes are, believe, as follows:

Di: Glirdy (Glirdy 1)
Xyzzy: Nogrod (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1)
Gil: Shasta (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1)
Sixth: Durelin (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1)
Esspiem: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 1)

Rikae 04-30-2007 06:42 AM

I have to leave now...I'll just cast my vote for
++SPM

and let the chips fall where they may.

Goodbye! I doubt I'll be back...:rolleyes:

Nogrod 04-30-2007 06:48 AM

Okay. Here are some thoughts then to begin with.

Aganzir has been remarkably cool and intelligent. She plays sharply. And that's kind of the reason why I suspect her on the basis of gut-feelings. She has been the most knowledgeable about things the vampires might do like reminding us about the special roles and how the vamps might use them. I at least forgot them in the beginning of the game quite a many times. But still she's quite reserved. She rarely makes any concrete points but feels more like avoiding any controversy or straight suspicions on anyone. ToDay she at last managed to make one more concrete post (about Rune) but in the end she didn't say anything about it...

So a witty vampire playing it safe? Seeing how no one seems to think her the vampire kind of strengthenes the point here. And if she is, then my congratulations to her for one of the coolest first games I've seen.

Thinlómien 04-30-2007 06:48 AM

I'm kind of torn between Sauce and Legate... I already stated the reasons to vote Legate, but Sauce feels slightly a tiny little bit more suspicious. And I'm not definitely going to do an analysis - in Legate's case there would be almost nothing to analyse and in Sauce's case there would be too much. :rolleyes:

edit: xed with Nogrod

Thinlómien 04-30-2007 06:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod
ToDay she at last managed to make one more concrete post (about Rune) but in the end she didn't say anything about it...

Yes, but she said:
Quote:

Originally Posted by Aga
I hope I managed to notice all his posts. I would have done more, but my bus leaves in five minutes and I really have to run. I'll be back before the deadline and see what I can make out of this.

So I gather she's to be back and to continue her case against Rune.

The Saucepan Man 04-30-2007 06:57 AM

A parting thought.

I am rather concerned with the way that Nogrod has used his claimed Hunter status to come up with al this useful information, rather late in the day as it were. It remains possible that the Vampire Seer established that the real Hunter was one who would not be around toDay, allowing a Vampiric Nogrod to make the claim. If so, he has certainly not wasted his opportunity.

I think it unlikely, because it would be rather unsporting of Nogrod, and so out of character, to claim that he did not notice a PM when there was no such PM there. So, it is probably best to work on the assumption that his claim is true for now.

But it may be a point to bear in mind for the future ...

See y'all either toMorrow or, if not, in the afterthread ... ;)

Rune Son of Bjarne 04-30-2007 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lommy
So I gather she's to be back and to continue her case against Rune.

Hey! What makes you think there is a case against me? She might just be highligting all the brilliance I have brought to this game. . . :D


Should we discus wither Lommy is a possibel lynch or have we already decided to save her for last?

Even though SPM is the one that has been giving me the biggest headaches so far, I would rather vote Legate. . .Yeah after thinking it over, I think I am going to vote Legate if not Lommy. The thing about SPM is that he always seem suspicouse at some point in the game.

Nogrod 04-30-2007 07:04 AM

And if Aganzir is a wolf then it just might be conceivable that Lommy is one as well. She's playing in her cool way as ever ducking almost all suspicions. And I wouldn't put it past Volo to handpick his two friends as the vampires just for the fun of it...

So I have some bad feelings about this duet being the vamps. And Lommy as the veteran seems to be givin her support to underline Aganzir's innocence.


I already discussed my theory of Rune being the shade impersonator vampire earlier and will not elaborate it more in here. It is a possibility as I can't see there being any reason why an innocent would like to pose as a shade even jokingly.


Legate was surely around on Day1. After that he has got RL problems. I did share the suspicions some voiced here about him being too nice. And somehow he wished to be seen and heard, mating around people but in the end saying pretty little. So that might be just a perfect cover-up for a vampire. Nice and friendly, good spirited roleplay-writing, feeling to be all around but still avoiding every suspicion.

With cases of Aganzir, Lommy and Legate we must remember that the worst nightmare to a baddie is a seer-dream and they would do anything to avoid it. So the baddies rarely - if they play wisely - stand in the middle of things and wish to avoid all controversy. Otherwise they have to be so reliable feeling ones that the seer doesn't bother. And that's pretty risky. I once almost made it that way but that requiered me to lynch two of my mates... :cool:

Thinlómien 04-30-2007 07:13 AM

Fair point, Noggle-Woggle
 
Sheesh, now that you say it and I think of it I guess I've been kind of shielding Aganzir - but because she genuinely seems innocent to me and because she is a RL friend fo mine and this is her first game...

Nogrod 04-30-2007 07:15 AM

And Spm then... Well, well, well.

Myself and Mac have made a few questions on him and it seems Lommy and Rikae at least are thinking him suspicious. I'm not going to recount those things but only add one small thing more that has caught my eye lately.

He has been the second staunchest defender of the voice of reason and the shade. Now underlining openly that it's best for the shade to help us villagers in a situation where no one knows how the shade will act will make things in reality harder for the vamps and helps us if it influences the decisions of the shade. So doing that actually might help us indeed. But I've done the very same bluff a long time ago. By bringing forwards a way of playing that made it harder for the wolves (which I were one myself then) to win won me a lot of trust... And I know Spm is easily capable of pulling the same trick.

Thinlómien 04-30-2007 07:20 AM

Nogrod... If I and Aganzir were (both) wolves (who don't have a vote) , how come Celuien died? :rolleyes: Who on earth voted her then?

I gather that was not an especially serious speculation from you, but it was definitely not a very good piece of speculation... ;)

edit: xed with Woggler

Nogrod 04-30-2007 07:23 AM

Nice variety here...

Di: Glirdy (Glirdy 1)
Xyzzy: Nogrod (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1)
Gil: Shasta (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1)
Sixth: Durelin (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1)
Esspiem: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 1)
Rikae: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 1, Spm 1)

The list candidates boldened.

Happily a lot of votes to follow.

Thinlómien 04-30-2007 07:26 AM

To Nogrod about getting SPM-lynched
 
Having thought of this more, I'd kind of prefer to vote SPM. But to say it straightforwadly: if other people than Rune are seriously accusing me, I'm afraid I will vote Legate (who pretty much everyone seems to suspect at some level) to save my own skin, as I know that lynching me does not profit the village unlike lynching Legate or Sauce (or Rune?) might.

Anyway I will be voting very soon and I have to make the final decision in minutes...

edit: xed with Noggie

Nogrod 04-30-2007 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Nogrod... If I and Aganzir were (both) wolves (who don't have a vote) , how come Celuien died? :rolleyes: Who on earth voted her then?

Possibly a good point. I need to check that myself too. I just put in my feelings and didn't check any earlier votings to back them...

Well, these voting lists might actually turn out much more effective than I'd imagined! (well, someone said this already but I just felt I had to say it myself too)

Kitanna 04-30-2007 07:28 AM

I need vote now, since I'll be in class when Day ends, but I'm entirely sure what to do. I'm tempted to vote for Glirdan since it looks like one way or another he will die due to his inactiveness. But I don't like the idea of voting for someone for that reason and that reason alone. In what little time I have left I'm going to look at a few people and make my decision from there.

Rune Son of Bjarne 04-30-2007 07:31 AM

I would just like to point out that I have not been putting seriouse accusations forth against Lommy, I was just trying to raise awareness about her and possibly hear what others think.

Of course I am willing to vote for Lommy if it is necisary, but that is a completely different talk.

Shastanis Althreduin 04-30-2007 07:34 AM

I think it would be amusing if Glirdy were an actual vampire. However, since he's probably going to be modkilled anyway, I think I'm going to vote Legate for two reasons:

1. He's on the list of five, two are vampires (if Nogrod's not lying)

2. Gil and Boro keep bringing up the possiblity of a connection between Legate and myself, and if to lay this to rest, one of us has to die, then I'd much rather it be him than me. ;)

++Legate

Edit: x'ed with Rune

Boromir88 04-30-2007 07:40 AM

Quote:

I am rather concerned with the way that Nogrod has used his claimed Hunter status to come up with al this useful information, rather late in the day as it were.~SpM
Quote:

I think it unlikely, because it would be rather unsporting of Nogrod, and so out of character, to claim that he did not notice a PM when there was no such PM there. So, it is probably best to work on the assumption that his claim is true for now.~SpM
And this is why I'll be voting for...

++The Saucepan Man

Clever vampiric tactic here to try to sew some confusion and doubt at the end. I think our Sir SpM realizes he's going down and is now trying to cast doubts in everyone's heads. Quite clever, as when I'm a wolf and I know I'm going down I want to do the exact same thing. He comes out to try to cast doubt into Nogrod's claims, and then he goes on to say its unlikely and we should believe it.

Nogrod is the hunter and is the lynch seer, if you can't tell this by the sincerity of his posts than go build me a bridge.

x-ed with Rune and Shasta

Nogrod 04-30-2007 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin
(if Nogrod's not lying)

You'll find it out toMorrow in any case. Either Glirdy is modkilled and we know how things are or then he miraculosly appears back to the game and will tell himself.

Boromir88 04-30-2007 07:41 AM

Oh and I know I said I likely wouldn't vote for SpM today, but I think the situation and information has dramatically changed (thank you Nogrod for finding that e-mail)

Thinlómien 04-30-2007 07:41 AM

Okay then. I'm not a coward. I'll vote Sauce. He's slightly more suspicious than Legate, and I'd love too see Legate around saying something before he's lynched, I think it'd be just fair, (if he could come around toMorrow...? I'd like to give him the last chance toMorrow.)

Others (especially Mac and Nogrod) have raised good points against Sauce and I will not repeat them here. If you say two of me, Aganzir, Rune, Legate and Sauce are vampires (or one might be the shade) I can rule myself out and am inclined to trust Aganzir, so that leaves me with Rune (who I feel least vampiric of the remaining ones), SPM and Legate. So I wouldn't be surprised if Sauce and Legate were actually both wolves and as I said I want to give Legate a chance so my choice is logically SPM.

++El Hombre Saucepán (or whatever that funny version of his name was :D)

edit: xed with everyone after Kitanna

Kitanna 04-30-2007 07:44 AM

I have no time to explain, but

++ Eomer

I'm already late for class, but when the next Day begins I will give my reasoning behind this vote.

Thinlómien 04-30-2007 07:47 AM

Parting thought for toDay
 
Kitanna looks quite bad, but maybe she's actually too uninvolved and careless to be a vamp... I'd love to hear more of her toMorrow!

If both SPM and Legate are wolves, I think there's a good chance of Shasta being a wolf as well.

Rune Son of Bjarne 04-30-2007 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien
I think it'd be just fair

When did fairness become introduced to this game? I for one was not notified.

I always feel weird about giving people a chance to speak up one of the following days, even though I do it sometimes. The thing is that often the game takes an unexpected turn and people forget about their previouse suspicions. . .There is a lesser chance for it to happen as we are fairly sure that 2 vampires are in this group.

anyways I will be voting Legate!

I did not get him killed in the last game I played in and he turned out to be a wolf, so this is going to be sweet if he is a vampire.

++Legate

Nogrod 04-30-2007 07:57 AM

Di: Glirdy (Glirdy 1)
Xyzzy: Nogrod (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1)
Gil: Shasta (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1)
Sixth: Durelin (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1)
Esspiem: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 1)
Rikae: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 1, Spm 1)
Shasta: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Spm 1)
Boro: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Spm 2)
Lommy: Spm (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Spm 3)
Kitanna: Eomer (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Spm 3, Eomer 1)
Rune: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 3, Spm 3, Eomer 1)

If that is correct...

I'm looking at the voting on Day1 yet again to make some comparations with yesterDay's one.

Shastanis Althreduin 04-30-2007 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Kitanna looks quite bad, but maybe she's actually too uninvolved and careless to be a vamp... I'd love to hear more of her toMorrow!

If both SPM and Legate are wolves, I think there's a good chance of Shasta being a wolf as well.


*headdesk* I give up. I've explained that there is no connection between me and Legate, and I don't know where the SPM connection came from, but apparently no one's listening to me.

Edit: Not to mention the fact that SPM and I are both voting for Legate, when it would be just as easy to vote Eomer instead, as they have the same amount of votes.

Edit again: Scratch that last part, it's SPM, not Eomer, with 3 votes. Sorry about that.

Aganzir 04-30-2007 08:12 AM

Well, I'm back
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod
She has been the most knowledgeable about things the vampires might do like reminding us about the special roles and how the vamps might use them.

Because this game is, after all, quite new to me and I wanted to be sure I understand the rules.

I'm going to at least see if I can make anything out of my Rune project, but when I posted it, I really didn't have the time. The main reason why I decided to make it was that Rune was, as I saw it, avoiding suspicion because everyone seemed to suspect he was the Shade.

There were 30 posts I found, but he actually said very little - enough that others saw he was around, but not anything that would really have helped.

I would like to hear, why Rune thought Rikae should dream either of Nogrod or of Roa. Why not Spm, who was suspected more than Roa? If two of Menel-voters have lied, I think they might be Rune & Spm (though there's still the possibility of Legate being a Vampire, as I am not, and don't believe that Lommy is). Rune's vote for Legate is strategically placed, as now Legate and Spm are tied - if he had voted for Spm, it could have been expected that most of the following votes were for Spm (seeing what happened on the first two days). Even if Rune's vote didn't count, it'd not be obvious that Spm would die.

edit: xed with Shasta

Nogrod 04-30-2007 08:13 AM

This is a corrected vote count of votes from Day1;
Kitanna 2
Rikae 4 (not3)
Gil 1
Sixth 1
Menel 2
Legate 2 (not3)
Celuien 4 (told openly) / 5 (told by Eomer)
Rune 1

No vote stated: Xyzzy, Di, Shasta, Kitanna, Durelin, Glirdy

Now Dury told us she didn't vote and Glirdy we know didn't vote.

How about the rest? Did anyone of them comment their voting afterwards?

There are four unknown votes in here. If there is one vote for Celuien among them then Celuien-voters indeed look pretty much safe. That means: Lommy, Eomer, Aganzir & Roa (whom we know already). But if there is more than one there might be a vampire lurking within the Celuien-voters.

Of course if Eomer was messing with the tally the situation is different.

So it would help us a lot to know who of those four we don't know voted for whom.

Shastanis Althreduin 04-30-2007 08:15 AM

Nogrod, I didn't manage to vote Day 1 (didn't I say that?)

Edit: Yeah, just looked it up, post 176. :)

Nogrod 04-30-2007 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin
Nogrod, I didn't manage to vote Day 1 (didn't I say that?)

YOu might have said it. I just don't remember it but I was going to ramble the thread through to find about these "missing votes"... Thanks for the info. So it's Xyzzy, Di and Kitanna and one vote for Celuien enough to make the Cel voters kind of safe but two votes to make one of them look pretty bad...

You probably understand the reason I'm doing this... As Lommy and Aganzir are on this list as well it would help us a lot to see this connection through.

Sadly both Di and Kitanna seem to have left for toDay.

They must be asked toMorrow!

Aganzir 04-30-2007 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne
hmmm I suppose this is not the sort of thing you would lie about, then you would surely only have said that there was one wolf amongst us.

This caught my eye. Are you speaking metaphorically or saying that there really was only one wolf, erm, vampire among Menel-voters? Or are my English skills (or wits) misleading me? :rolleyes:

Nogrod 04-30-2007 08:35 AM

Some pretty remarkable information again...

Quote:

No vote stated: Xyzzy, Di, Shasta, Kitanna, Durelin, Glirdy
Now it looks like the following:
Xyzzy -> Lommy
Di -> Legate
Shasta -> no vote
Kitanna -> no vote
Durelin -> no vote
Glirdy - no vote

Which means the ending number of votes is:
Celuien 4 (got them earlier)
Rikae 4
Legate 3
Menel & Kit 2
Gil, Sixth, Rune, Lommy 1

= 19 votes + 4 no votes = 23 = all declared

So either Eomer lied about the vote tally (and should be lynched because of that - and if this is why Kit was after him then kudos to her!) or then someone innocent has lied about voting for someone else while giving her/his vote to Celuien which I find a bit odd...

If someone has made that little trick, please let us know because otherwise we might have toMorrow's lynching ready already... :cool:

I need to think this again if there is a flaw in this but I'll post it for you others to see.

Boromir88 04-30-2007 08:38 AM

Interesting SpM and Legate tied up at 3...but is that really the case? If SpM and/or Rune/Shasta can not actually vote this would mean SpM is still in the lead.

I don't think any SpM voter (myself, Rikae, Thinlomien) is a vampire. And I have a feeling there is at least one vampire (SpM) in the Legate voters. With Rune/Shasta being either another vampire (Shasta) or the shade (Rune?)

Which leaves the mass of voters who haven't voted yet, voted for someone else, or we have no clue who they voted for:

Di
Xyzzy
Gil
The Sixth
Kitanna
Eomer
Glirdan
Aganzir
Nogrod
Durelin
Mac
Legate


Of that massive group Nogrod and Mac are known innocents (no ifs ands or buts about it people).

If Aganzir is a vampire, congrats in your first game and completely fooling me and sending me back to school.

Gil has posted more than me, so for that alone if he's a vampire he deserves to win.

Leaving everyone else in one glob to start figuring out...ummm tomorrow seems like a better day to do that.

Edit: x-ed with Nogrod and Aganzir

Nogrod 04-30-2007 08:40 AM

The shade might have lied... surely.

But if we are having a problem filling the votes for Celuien in the first place that would make Lommy and Aganzir look pretty good and I wouldn't encourage you to lynch them toDay.

Macalaure 04-30-2007 08:45 AM

I knew I was going to be busy today, but I had no idea just how busy...


I only skimmed the thread and so have nothing of importance to add. :(


I see SPM and Legate are on the block. Excellent. I could go for either of the two. Lead me and I follow.

Nogrod 04-30-2007 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure
Lead me and I follow.

Check #437 if you already haven't. There's the basic line now...

Aganzir 04-30-2007 08:51 AM

I think I will go for Spm. I don't feel like voting for Rune, for if he's the Shade (which is more probable than that eg. Saucie was the Shade), we would truly need him alive next Night. But if Spm is a Vampire, then I think we should consider also Rune toMorrow.
And I think we really should hear more from Legate before lynching him.

++ Spm


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