Well I read most of page 10 (I think?).

First, I think we are obligated to (at the very very least) seriously consider lynching our seer's most suspected - if only because he was the seer. To do otherwise would be irresponsible, and unfair to the seer.

Regarding Aganzir and Feanor o' the Peredhil: I notice tgwbs had the two of them listed as "most guilty," and not "most suspicious." Given that tgwbs consistently pro-lynching-Fea from Day 1, the fact that he makes a sharp shift in his approach to Aganzir between Day 1 and Day 2 indicates to me that he may have dreamt of her in between, and not Fea. Day 1 he calls her reasonable, Day 2 he calls her "most guilty."

I guess, to conclude, I think Aganzir deserves as much attention as Fea - but I don't think a double lynch is in order - was that Mac that suggested that? That's crazy. Look what happened last time.

Anyway, I'll vote in 7 hours or something when I wake up. I feel like reading pages 11 and 12, but I really have to go to bed. I have to get up early tomorrow.

Gwath, you say that we kill Agan and Fea but not in a double-lynch. Why? It would enable us to dispose of two birds with one stone, and buy us another day. It does- I admit- look like a risk, but a calculated risk and worth a shot.

And I'm not trying to throw suspicion here on you, Gwath, I'm just questioning your point.

And the odds that it goes wrong are bigger than that we get it right, and since it's the critics who will most likely benefit from it, I have a very hard time trying to see your suggestion as an innocent one.
Plus, we don't know if people will get modfired for not participating.

Oh yes she did. But it doesn't change the fact that three people voicing suspicion against you are not that big of a threat, especially if there are also people who consider you innocent or don't want you lynched around, which makes you look slightly overreactive. I wouldn't count Boro when thinking about people who suspected you back then.

Whoops sorry I realised that, it was just badly phrased. It should have been It looks like it was enough for him to came up with someone he could vote without any actual reasons before leaving..

I don't because that's what wolves can think rather often and I wouldn't put it past you to say it aloud.

I take everything I find suspicious, don't care if they're jokes or not. Besides sometimes it's hard to distinguish a joke from a serious statement, and later it would be easy to downplay suspicions against these things by saying they're jokes.

I haven't concentrated on Gwath at all thus far so I don't know about him. However, I think the way you did it was different. Maybe Gwath didn't try very hard to look for suspects, but you just decided in the beginning that Menel was suspicious and went along those lines for the whole day. When speaking about Gwath as a player, I think he's quite often like that, so I find you more suspicious.

Someone would have voted him anyway.
Okay, when saying Nog would probably have been lynched even without Gwath's vote, I forgot the Nog saving attempt. I just thought he would have gathered quite a lot votes nonetheless. However I don't think Gwath could foresee the bandwagon.

I would like to see them.

Even more so if we double lynch her and an innocent.

It's not just that you want to double lynch me, it's that you want to double lynch at all. The chances that it would benefit us are so slim.

**

The only thing is, I'm not guilty.

Ooh he's singing my favourite song! :p
Anyway I'm planning to look up the things I found weird at some point but I'm not sure if it should be done only after Fea's death because it would make the task rather easier. Especially if she for some reason turns out to be innocent.

How come you're so sure? You know, there's this risk tgwbs didn't actually dream of us. Double lynching Fea and me would not buy the innocents another day, it would take one away.

Hey critics I hope you're enjoying yourselves. :p

Summary
 

Guilty
Fea. Time will tell for sure.
Mac. See case against him.

Innocent
Lari. If she's a wolf she's so totally awesome she deserves to win.
Brinn. Feeling rather good about her. She's reasonable.
Boro. I noticed something I found weird in his communication with Fea when reading her posts earlier, but I'm not going to hold it against him as long as we don't know Fea's role for sure & I haven't checked what it was.

Neither
sally. I will probably have to take a look at her posts at some point, not because I would find her especially suspicious but because I have no idea about her.
Kath. I'm leaning towards innocent but I'll read through her posts once before deciding anything.
Shasta. Where is he? Five posts.
Strongbow. Where on earth is he? Five posts, his last one is from the beginning of day 2.
Gollum. No idea.
Cailíneomer. Six posts.

That is a good point actually.

The odds that it goes wrong are the same. Fea is almost certainly evil of some sort, and the second candidate has the same chances that the one candidate tomorrow has. Chances of getting one baddie: very high. Chances of getting two baddies: almost the same as getting one baddie on any other day.

And that's not even counting the higher probability of you being a baddie derived from tgwbs's information.

I don't know about you, but if three or possibly more people consider voting me short before the deadline, then I do get a bit nervous. Once somebody has three votes, he easily attracts more.

I'll try to come up with them later again if I have time.

Well - I guess this is technically true. Maybe I'm just squeamish about taking that kind of risk.

Oh, and I didn't say we kill both Agan and Fea, I just said we should seriously consider doing so. There is, as Aganzir pointed out, the possibility, however slight, that tgwbs did not dream of one or both of them. Maybe he only dreamt of innocents; it's possible.

I have to vote now, unfortunately. I'm not really sure who's voted for who at this point since I missed a lot, but I'm going to vote

++Aganzir

Because 1) we owe it to ourselves and our seer to go after either her or Fea, and 2) I see pretty strong evidence that tgwbs may have dreamt of Aganzir on Night 2 (I think it is) as I stated in my post #521.

If I have time at some point today I shall look over the posts between Fea and Boro since the beginning but there is a high probability that I won't be able to get in before the vote deadline.


++ Fea

Will be in classes all day, so...

++Aganzir

I would just like to take another chance now to politely ask that you reconsider your suspicions of me. You know, just because.

Well, I'm off to work but just wanted to say this.

Gwath makes an excellent point about TGWBS possibly dreaming Agan. I would be amenable to lynching her toDay as well. Which is to say that I'm okay with a Fea lynch OR an Agan lynch, but I don't think we've thought it out enough to risk a double. Besides, I don't think enough people support it for it to be a good idea.



That is all. See you (hopefully) toMorrow.

I do not see why either of the two ladies should see the light of Day 4. If we are wrong and the lynch results are disastrous, we can blame the Short Wild Guy for categorising carelessly. If Fea is guilty, the reasonable thing to do is to lynch Aganzir the day after. If Miss Peredhil is not guilty (which pretty much everyone agrees is not very likely), we shall still be nervous about Aganzir till the end of our days. Let's clean this mess and catch up on those critics.

++Aganzir

Not to say that her Mac analysis was not spectacularly elaborate. If there is considerable opposition to a double-lynch, I would naturally rather hear Fea's final aria.

And the chances of making a disastrous lynch (i.e. by lynching one of the remaining gifteds - sorry Agan, someone had to say it) offsets that chance of getting two with one. Don't get greedy.

Huhm. The phantom predicted that I would die Night 4 without leaving a trace. This seems now quite plausible, and we all know that he is somewhat psychic.

Gollum is innocent. Sally is evil.

This shall be my epitaph.

Thanks for leaving us that, I trust because of it the critics will give you a gruesome and terrifying death.

I doubt I'll be back for the rest of the day, so...

++Fea

Don't double-lynch, that's what I'll leave you with.

Sally looks rather innocent. There's just the way she changed her opinion on Menel on day 1 because he retaliated Mac's suspicion by voting him that looks odd, but then again when she said it, also her earlier main suspect Nog had votes. So it doesn't look like jumping on bandwagon. And her reasoning sounds innocentish.
I don't think that her willingness to prevent a double lynch makes her look more innocent, but it doesn't make her look more suspicious either. Also a critic would have reasons to avoid double lynch even if a fellow wasn't involved - just to look good.
Her Gollum vote doesn't look very good given that first Brinn voted him randomly and then sally. Her reasoning is okay though - that Gollum didn't try to prevent a double lynch but refrained from voting.

Kath was planning to vote for Fea already on day 1 but voted Ilya. Overall she looks quite innocent too.

Gwath I think you were more sensible when you were still wavering about the double lynch. The wolves are the only ones who will benefit from it.

Me neither, especially as it was Fea, not me, after whom tgwbs was all the time. That's why I don't understand why people (eg Cailín) seem to be willing to lynch me today and Fea only tomorrow. Besides if she's the cobbler it would be important to get rid of her as soon as possible even though the seer isn't alive anymore.

Cailín's vote makes me feel worse about her. I admit being biased and I might do the same if I was innocent and there were two people of whom it looked like the seer had dreamed, but here the only problem is that at least one of these people is innocent, and in addition to me only the wolves know it. That's why I can see the wolves as the most likely speakers in favour of a double lynch.

It's alright, I doubt anyone would believe me or the wolves kill me even if I said I was a gifted.

Why is it so quiet?

This next post will be grossly generalising and depending on the roles of people who live, but maybe still worth something.

Case 1: Aganzir is a critic - how would the other critics react to the double-lynch idea? They certainly don't want it to happen, but not at all cost. They know one thing: Aganzir will be dead before the end. If we don't lynch her today, we will lynch her tomorrow or once we run out of other suspects. She will under no circumstances make it til the end. Therefore, she is not worth getting yourself into trouble for. The reaction I'm looking for: carefulness, saying that Aganzir is probably evil, maybe even adding points to it, but trying to dissuade from a double-lynch, as sneaky as possible. Sure, they could be against it more openly, or try to make themselves look good by wanting to lynch her, but I've got the feeling that the described way is a good place to find a critic - in this case.

Case 2: Aganzir is not a critic - how would the critics react then? They are for it. Definitely. How strongly? Well, they have the seer to hide behind and they have me as the prime scapegoat if it goes wrong. I'm looking for those who are for it but immediately provide a possible excuse for tomorrow. Of course, they could think that it is dangerous to burn one's fingers in this, but the circumstances are very promising.


And now let us see:

Lari

Doesn't say anything for a very long time. Fea is clearly guilty to her and she leans innocent for Aganzir, which is surprising clear. Guilty Aganzir still points towards her guilt. She votes for Fea, of course.

Boro

Note that Boro didn't say a word about double-lynching until he himself had a look at Aganzir.

The many (likely and unlikely) options he presents look suspicious if Aganzir is a critic. His clear stance against it (which he continues later) makes him look innocent again, because I doubt a companion of Aganzir would try to buy her just one more day that openly.

Gollum

Thoroughly confused while trying to catch up, which looks good for him in either way. Then:

Might be I'm not entirely objective, but I think he sounds innocent. He later justly criticises Gwath for his post (below).

Brinn

A guilty Aganzir could point to a guilty Brinniel. What does not fit is her "not 100% sure about Fea". A critic would put more focus on the guilt of Fea to divert people's eyes away from Aganzir, even if Fea is a critic, too.

This is a good point, that I overlooked before. If tgwbs found Fea to be a cobbler and Aganzir a critic, why didn't he leave Fea be and went after Aganzir more? It could be the roles are in fact switched, it could be both are critics and you can only chase one at a time (usually), it could be tgwbs feared being too obvious and then dead, it could be he feared the cobbler more because she could expose him, it could be his dreams were actually different than I thought...

Kath

She is less clear than Boro, but more clear than the following Sally. She votes for Fea.

Sally

She went through tgwbs's posts and said she found the same as everyone. She does not mention Aganzir once. A guilty Aganzir strongly points towards a guilty Sally.

This fits the scheme, especially with the omission of Aganzir, again.

And there's the desired carefulness...

Later she suggests Gollum and Cailineomer as candidates for a double lynch she could go with. She doesn't say why Aganzir is not an option. (Complete omission of her is more than I expected, to be honest.)
She also throws in a very vague suspicion of me that she will not pursue yet.

This is funny. I was just about to suggest Gwath and Sally as Aganzir's companions, but Sally taking up Gwath's point against Aganzir, out of all points against Aganzir that were flying around, is surprising.

Gwath

Alarm bells be a-ringing. He gives points against Aganzir and Fea but steps away from double-lynching them. After Gollum stepped on his toes:

Alarm bells be a-ringing more. He relativises his opinion instantly once challenged.
He then votes for Aganzir which is surprising, but could be explained by nervousness after Gollum's call.

Cailineomer

While I was looking for auto-excuses, this is surprisingly blunt.


So there.

Case 1:
Gwathagor (very suspicious)
Sally
Kath
Brinn
Lari
Boro (only a little suspicious)

Case 2:
Cailineomer
Gollum (both only a little suspicious)


I did this mostly because Aganzir was starting to convince me. Her replies showed just the right amount of defense, offense, outrage, and helpfulness. I would like to believe you Aganzir, really, but pretty much all evidence is against you (though Brinn's points are valid ones). The only thing that could really dissuade me is probably Fea's unlikely innocence.


But it's fun to! :p

As a funny little anecdote, last night I was asked to write something pertaining to the pair of boots I'm wearing. So I wrote something, and then I was told, "This is why nobody ever trusts you."

So I can't even wear shoes without garnering suspicion, if that tells you anything.

Like that I might be suspicious, but that I'm really very cuddly in secret.

We clearly need a vote count:

Sally -> Fea
Kath -> Fea
Aganzir -> Fea
Gwath -> Agan
Lari -> Fea
Fea -> Agan
Cailin -> Agan
Boro -> Fea

Fea 5, Agan 3

Left (5): Brinn, Shasta, Strongbow, me, Gollum

Ok, now that looks suspicious.

That's impressive, Mac. Only a pity that I'm innocent. :p
However what I find funny is that I was about to say myself that sally's suggestion of lynching Cailín or Gollum didn't sound that bad.

I wonder what's going to happen if Bowie doesn't appear today. Or Shasta, but I think he will.

It seems Fea really really doesn't want a double-lynch to take place...which is interesting...

Well she's obviously innocent, much the same way that I'm obviously innocent, in that TGWBS put both of us in the same category with no qualifying statements such as apparent hints. The only difference is that he voted for me, which I put down to not having dreamed of a critic (only the innocents that art Boro and Kath), and obviously somebody's got to be the most suspicious, and let's face it: I'm always the most suspicious. Add on that little chat I had with the phantom on the very first day, as well as the fact that TGWBS died after two hard days of gunning for me, well of course I'm seen as guilty.

And Agan got pinned right up with me on top of the list, though I don't particularly know why.

I recommend you pick one of these options and go with it:

1) I'm a critic/Walter and I know that Agan isn't on my side, or

2) I'm innocent, and I seriously think TGWBS didn't dream of either of us.

I hold to the second one.

If one of us has to go, let it be me. The village really can't afford to lose as good a player as Agan. Especially not since I think TGWBS had absolutely no idea who was actually guilty, and merely made an educated (if wrong) guess.

Uh-huh. Obviously innocent.

:rolleyes:

Can't blame a girl for trying.

Save the whales! Hug a tree! Don't kill Aganzir!

I don't know what to think at this point. Fea could be bluffing to save Aganzir tomorrow.

++Fea

Could be trying to save Agan?

How much more obvious can I get?

Vote for me! Kill me!

*turns attention back to bio report*

I still think this double lynch plan is a stupid idea. If so many think Fea is the cobbler, don't you know that the cobbler is on our side as far as numbers go? So, if we were to lynch Fea and she was the cobbler and we also lynched Agan and she ended up being innocent, we'd be losing two in our numbers? And while I do think Fea looks to be part of the guilty party, if by some tiny chance we all turn out to be wrong and she's innocent, then we're really screwing ourselves over. I think most people know by now I am and have been against double lynches. They are a risk, and more often than not they go wrong. If Fea turns out to be guilty, then Agan should certainly be examined and tried come toMorrow...but this is no decision we should rush into.

++Fea

EDIT: X-posted

Let me restate my reasons for my Agan vote:

I trust TGWBS would not leave us with ambiguous hints or information. This means that either he did not know any critics / cobblers by his time of death and just thought of Fea and Aganzir as the most suspicious characters, or he happened to peg two sinister characters in two nights. Rereading his posts, I can see why there are many around who are unwilling to risk assuming the second - Wild Guy seems uncertain and especially on Day 1 he acts unconvinced of Fea's guilt.

However, if Fea is guilty, I do not think we can risk it to keep Aganzir alive. Of course, Guy may not have dreamt of either, and his categorisation could have been just a reasonable and astute guess. Fea's guilt would not prove Aganzir's guilt, and Fea's innocence would only imply that TGWBS did not dream of any evil persons. In that case only can I see Aganzir survive another day, yet she would still be eligible for lynching in the future (her voting record is not very favourable, either). Perhaps that is enough for most to shrink away from a double-lynch. In my opinion, we have little to lose from it: the ordinary, yet talented singers get to kill two highly suspicious characters, while the critics can only eliminate one potential-gifted or innocent.

I can envision scenarios in which the double-lynch would turn against the village. However, I am feeling bold and reckless. :p

Cross-posted with Fea's ambiguous retraction and suicidal vote. I'm not going to judge her motives, because we shall find out soon enough. It does not necessarily make me feel better about either girl. :o

I really think Fea is just trying to mess with our heads (which is something I know she loves to do). If they were both critics (or she the cobbler who discovered her a critic), I don't think she'd be so obvious in trying to save Agan. It's more likely Fea doesn't even know Agan's identity herself.

The one thing I don't want to do is solely focus on Aganzir toMorrow. Of course we can suspect her, but we must bring other suspects to the table as well because we know there are other baddies about too.

I would've gladly given a nice analysis of everyone so far, but there's not enough time now, so it'll have to wait until toMorrow if I'm still alive. Though as of now, the one other person I'm worried about other than the two being discussed is Sally. Simply because of her vote yesterDay, which was a completely echoed mine. It wasn't that she voted for the same person, but that her explanation came so close to copying mine...I've never felt so uneasy about someone agreeing with me on something. It just seems she was trying to turn the Gollum vote into a bandwagon.

Vote count(yay time inbetween reading why Sherlock Holmes is always right and Watson is always wrong...in a book about writing history):

Sally -> Fea
Kath -> Fea
Aganzir -> Fea
Gwath -> Agan
Lari -> Fea
Fea -> Agan
Cailin -> Agan
Boro -> Fea
Fea-> change to Fea
Shasta-> Fea
Brinn-> Fea

Fea 8, Agan 2

Left to vote: Strongbow, Gollum, Mac

Le Lament to Fea:

Never a voice did we hear
that made us tremble in fear.
Her notes could cut through hills
a voice like that certainly kills.
It binds me with a great pain
Treacherous Fea, wild man's bane.

RIP my lady.

++Fea

I have too many doubts about Aganzir to really push for a double-lynching, because as it looks right now, that's what I would have to do to get there.

Absolutely. Even if we end up agreeing to lynch her, it would be a waste of a day if we didn't look at others.

This is just wrong on so many levels...

Well, the first part's right. If I was a bad guy, I'd never ever direct so much attention on one of my cohorts. I mean, imagine if the village took me seriously and killed them? That would be tragic. So no. I'd never take a risk. You know me- careful to the very end.

And you should remember that if I'm a Critic, I at least know that Agan isn't (wink wink), and if I'm the Cobbler, I may well have dreamed of Agan (third wink), and if I'm an ordo, then I'm kind of bored being an ordo and am just causing trouble for my own amusement.

You know me. What sounds most like something I'd do?

Moddess prowling....
 

Few more minutes ...

Well, I guess that's the thing about you, Fea. You are always so unpredictable. At least in my book. :p

I dont know if I have enough online time for a worthy death scene tonight so I will give you the result and fill in ASAP . Sorry cos I do like the big suspense thing...

Fea was a critic .



Surviving critics prepare to receive Walter's intelligence

Walter and Critics send choices in due course.

I am beginning to contemplate action on the non voters. I think neither Gollum nor Strongbow have voted at all and Strongbow has not been seen for a couple of days. Anyone with a strong opinion please PM me.

Remaining
Sally, soprano
Lariren , soprano, Ithilien
Brinniel, mezzo-soprano, Harad
Kath contralto
Aganzir, Minas Tirith contralto
Gwathagor (Gwathagorio), lyric tenor/spinto Sindar of Eriador
Shastanis Althreduin (tenor leggierio / lyric tenor)
Strongbow, Bowissimo of Lossarnach
Macalaure (Barney Broadbottle), a Bree-lander from Staddle, Baritone
Gollum the Great - bass-baritone
Boromir 88 basso profundo, Rohan
Cailineomer, trouser role, Forodwaith

You're not singing anymore:

Meneltarmacil - baritone err Nazgul from Minal Morgul ORDO
Nogrod - lyric tenor in the end, Old Forest ORDO
Ilya, mezzo-soprano, vales of Anduin. ORDO
TGWBS - bass, woodwose, SEER
Feanor of the Peredhil, Belfalas (mezzo-)soprano CRITIC

You're not voting anymore.

The Phantom (Opera Ghost)