I hate to do this, but a girl from work who tends to call in sick at the worst times (and who thankfully won't be working for us much longer) has called in sick again, and I have to go to work. Right now. :(

So I need to vote, and it'll be a bit random, and I'm dreadfully sorry:

++elronds_daughter

Good luck today!

I don't believe I mentioned it at all, actually, but nice job at subtle suspicion-hopping. ;)

A Little Green:

Day 1:
Greenie start out with a little bickering with Agan, suggests she might be a cobbler or worse.

She thinks Pitch looks like he always does (he was suspected at this time), that Nessa's defence of him was odd, and goes back-and-forth about Rikae for withdrawing her suspicion on Pitchie.

No vote

Day 2:
Explains her no-vote: she had computer-problems. She goes on to bicker some more with Agan (harmless stuff really), shares a moment with Shasta, excuses herself for low participation and makes a list. Her only real suspect is Inzil.
Then she is helpful in summing up the votes that far and votes Inzil without any further explanation.

Day 3:
Quoting this in it's entirety:
Greenie then goes on to criticize Legate (agreeing with Cailin who made the same point) for his friends-don't-kill-friends argument. Legate has been going on about how the wolves probably aren't Agan or Greenie, because they wouldn't have Night-killed Ozban or Kath who are their friends and who haven't played for a while. I agree with Greenie and Cailin that this is a dodgy point especially since it also seems to conveniently clear himself. And I don't think RL-considerations would stop Agan or Greenie (or Legate for that matter), were they wolves and deemed it the best alternative. I should hope not anyway. It's even possible someone (Legate?) is trying to hide behind it.

Then she makes another list (after criticizing Legate again for his assumptions regarding the kills). Her suspects:
She later softens her stance on Legate, says he makes more sense now.

Goes on to vote for Inzil without further explanation after another little episode with Agan.

Comments:
In the light of Inzil's innocence Greenie's two votes for him looks bad, and her reasons aren't that good either. However, Innocents have voted Inzil obviously, and without a wolf down it is really hard to find a solid reason against anyone bar a bad slip. I find her bickering with Agan somewhat disturbing. Could they perhaps be fellows, making an early scene when then accuse each other. Plausible certainly, but then again, they are of course good real-life friends who enjoy each other's company and that is maybe a more probable explanation for the exchanges.

Has been very careful not to put herself in the spotlight which often is a bad sign. Then again, she says she has little time.

Seems more active toDay though and looks sharp. Gawd, this is also going to sound wishy-washy, but I really have no clue. If she is a wolf, her poker-face is commendable. But no, I don't think I'll be voting Greenie (though I would to save myself).

Duh, of course you didn't, I meant skip. No idea why you crossed my mind at that moment. Maybe I was reading one of your analyses with the other eye.

Yes, I had time issues especially during the weekend, today I've finally got the chance to participate as much as I like to.

I'm not sure about that last sentence there, or mainly the addition in brackets. It's a weird thing to say - I would think it's pretty much obvious you are willing to vote me (or basically anyone) to save yourself, I'm not sure why you felt the need to mention it. Especially in context of the analysis of someone who doesn't look like a very likely lynch candidate at the moment.


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch

(no quote tags, to save space)

If Nessa and Inzil are fellows this would be a very bold move. Yet it makes sense I guess. ~ Skip

That would be a nightmare, so have we reached the stage where Pitch, Nessa, and Inzil are just huge question marks we have to find them out or they will forever haunt us? ~ Boro

Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa. ~ Shasta

The enigmatic pair: Inzil, Nessa ~ Agan

Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow ~ Shasta

I agree that Inzil and Nessa will continue to be a distraction and I am unhappy to see they have the focus of so much debate toDay. It might be best, as Boromir88, Shasta and others have said, to get them out of the way. ~ Cailín

I think Inzil and/or Nessa would clear up the weight hanging over the council so far and clear things up for my own head. ~ Boro


This bad reasoning in unison is really getting me. The fact that our presumed cobbler is joining into it prominently should make that clear if nothing else does.

Don't mind if you do, actually.
To be honest, I think I might have been influenced by a similar sentence that Inzil wrote and that I just re-read. It would seem stupid to copy Inzil's style though :rolleyes:

That ain't wolfin'.

That's the way you do it
get your lynches for nothing, double kills for free.

No, that ain't wolfin'
That's the way you do it!
Lemme tell ya, this pack ain't dumb
maybe come under a little vague suspicion
maybe throw a cobbler under the bus.

We got to analyze wolfy ordos
look suspicious with trickereeeey
we've got to choose 'tween
under the raders
we got to read these submariiiiiines.

I should'a got a PM from the mod
I should'a learned to make them shoes
look at these baddies, decimating villagers, man
wish I could be one.

I want my...
I want my...
I want my victory.
No that ain't wolfin'...

Well, there seems to be quite a bit of analysis going on toDay, eh? I'll have to vote now, though, as I'll probably not be able to at DL. And even though I haven't heard everything that will come about, I have heard enough to make my decision.

++Legate

Because what he says sounds disturbingly wolvish, if you look at it from that perspective.

A side remark - this is nothing about agreeing or disagreeing with conclusions you make, but what makes you think that the Cobbler would anyway know any better than the rest of us innocents whether he should or should not suspect Nessa and Inzil? How should he know that he can safely accuse Inzil, if such a huge part of the village (unless they all were wolves, but that is even numerically impossible), didn't know it?

EDIT: x-ed with skip, Rikae and Nessa. "From that perspective" - from what perspective? If you think I am sounding Wolvish then of course I do, what's that supposed to mean? If you are innocent, I would ask you to try to gather some reason...

The problem with that reasoning is that everything is disturbingly wolvish if you read it with the assumption that it is.

While I don't necessarily agree with lynching Nessa today, her one post so far today, in which she votes, doesn't make me very comfortable at all.

And Rikae, what is this Mark Wolfler Revival supposed to mean, or do you have too much of your frustration already? Or have I been right when I was thinking that your secret and mysterious hints were actually meant for the Wolves?

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Shasta

Sorry it took me way too long. Blame Lommy, she was posting pictures on Facebook.

I don't think your reasoning is very sound. Boro's being the cobbler isn't a proof that Mac & Rikae are innocent, but it certainly doesn't make their guilt more likely unlike you claimed.

No I didn't. You said you couldn't see good enough a reason for me to kill Oz on night 1, and I answered that the unlikeliness of it would have been a good reason for me to do it. But never mind, I was just wondering for a while if you were trying to drop a hint. :p

Me neither, but I seem to remember him being exactly like that as the cobbler. Making long posts that basically say nothing.

True but it's safer to assume they know her.

I'm torn about wilwa. She looks pretty innocent and arguments in an innocent way, but that doesn't mean she's innocent. I think she's one of those people who just have an innocent mindset whatever her role... Last time I played she was my cobbler, and we considered killing her almost every night because she just looked so darn innocent (fortunately we didn't).

I'm more concerned about skip again. He just feels way way off.

Why would a wolf gloat when they still haven't got a gifted?

A wolf doesn't need to hint to the cobbler at this point, especially if the wolf is Rikae (or someone else who can prioritize things correctly).

Shasta's analysis of Mänwe looks reasonable but it's also very easy to cast suspicion on a quiet player.

I know I'm flip-flopping (and will probably continue to do so till she's dead) but I feel considerably better about Rikae now that people are questioning her activities.

I see the logic in that even though it's likely not all the wolves took part in it. If Nessa is innocent (and I'm inclined to think so at the moment, at least enough to not vote for her today) it would be very convenient for the wolves to get the two of them lynched, therefore at least a couple of them were probably pushing it.

Mac had been suspected so little that being part of a bandwagon against an innocent would hardly have got him lynched yet.

I can't believe I'm getting into this discussion (it's entirely different to suggest the seer come out than tell her who to dream of) but I wouldn't bother to dream of Nessa right now - basically everyone has talked about her, while there are still a lot of submarines.

I wouldn't vote for Boro today just because I find it more likely he's the cobbler.

To be fair I think we all know that already, but now it's a too late to lynch the quiet just to be on the safe side. It would be very convenient for a wolf to try to make us do exactly that, though.

And have things changed?

How did you know that? It was pretty even between Nessa and him till the end.

I really don't like skip's Greenie analysis - I'm not convinced of Greenie's innocence either, but it looks nastily opportunistic even though he says he won't vote for her today.

Seconded. Rikae when will we be wolves together?

I feel like voting Pitch or skip today. Not Boro (if we kill a wolf today, we can lynch him tomorrow). I could imagine myself going for Cailín, Shasta, ed and Mänwe... but rather one of the first two.

I can relate.


EDIT: wow, x-ed with Legate and Agan's novel.

I'd like you to elaborate on that tomorrow. Yes Legate is silly at times, but I think there are arguments that speak for his innocence.

If you want, I can make you a list of ways the wolves can tell the cobbler who they are. Or Mac can. :p

Seconded.

Me neither, but in spite of it we shouldn't lynch her today.

Boro is a smart person, so he would undoubtedly have reached the same conclusions as I. ;) (and then acted according to his role)

More seriously: If we assume that the cobbler has some decent idea who the wolves are, he could have assumed with high probability (from the suspected wolves' behaviour) that both Inzil and Nessa were/are innocent.


Everyone: Don't forget that five evil votes are against us toDay. There have been villages in the past where the baddies shrewdly took advantage of this. We should make up our minds who to vote for carefully and not spread it too much.

My preferences:
Tier I: Skip
Tier II: Shasta or Cailín
Tier III: Pitch
Tier IV and higher: there are some here I still suspect, but I'd really rather not go there toDay.

Maybe I'm suffering from the mentioned desire of wanting to see suspicious behaviour by a suspect, but Shasta's case of Mänwe looks like he's pushing for another silent scapegoat now that Nessa is falling out of favour at last, and his case of Cailín like some mild wolf-on-wolfing.

Yes Nessa must really love to puzzle us :rolleyes:

Don't know what you mean. I'm not convinced of anyone's innocence (including yours) but my verdict is basically "no idea" and "won't vote for her". What is it that looks opportunistic?

Exactly. There are still 14 of us, 5-9, so we could be worse off - and everybody except Rikae still have their retraction.

I want to take a look at Shasta. Will do it now, assuming I have the time (you know how I am).

To be honest, this attitude is starting to irritate me. If you happen to be suspected by Mac, you can't do anything without being suspicious, apparently. And apparently analyzing someone whom no one else has even bothered to consider is suspicious. Shoot me now.

Well I wasn't suspicious of Shasta per se (it was more like, "he's been slipping under my radar but his being a wolf would fit the picture nicely") but that's exactly what I thought when I saw his cases.

Also, if Mac turns out to be a wolf, I'm going to start to vote consistently for the player I find the most innocent-looking.

Something about the tone: it struck me as if you were trying to phrase things so that they would sound bad. But now I went and read it again and it actually reminds me of my way of analysing people (in the sense that you don't just sum up what the analysed has said but consider what their actions might mean and stuff) and now I don't know anymore. Skip you drive me mad!

edit: xed with Shasta. Sorry. :D

Just something I noticed during a quick reread:

So you "really really dislike" the fact that you gave her the last vote on two of these Days? Which do you dislike, the votes or the fact that she only was almost lynched? Please clarify.
And if Nessa's a wolf, she's not a survivalist, she has a deathwish. Three Nightkills pointing to her, and hardly an attempt to defend or save herself? Come on.

:D Pitch you're hilarious (but that's true).

Ah, now I see, I misread it. Okay, whatever. Just hope you haven't been LOOKING for a hint... ;)

Now the more I am looking at this, even though I dislike being "unsporty", won't people really like to vote for Cailín? As it mostly looks like the best if I look at my suspects, considering Greenie and Agan also mentioned considering voting her, if I am not mistaken...

Honestly, I think more people have said Skip looks like a better choice.

I think it's obvious enough from the kills.

All I've got to say is if Wolfy McWolfypants has no better suspects for cobbler at this point than me with my silly song, it's not for lack of trying by other would-be shoemakers. :rolleyes:

Legate's completely illogical, passively worded suspicions against me are just about enough to earn him my vote.

After Inzil? An Inzilwolf would have had more reason to think someone was on to him than Nessa would have.

Ah but I have. I kept wishing the wolves would try and hint to me because of my day 1 behaviour, but that was pretty much impossible because I didn't have the necessary information.

I don't particularly suspect her, it's more like "I don't think these people are wolves, ergo the wolves have to be some of these, Cailín is slipping under my radar hmm..."

So if Cailín is a wolf Shasta is too, and if skip is, so is Legate? :p

You and me both.

And with that, I'm completely caught up. Nice to see I've been stamped, labeled, and filed away. This is for posterity, so be honest, is anyone going to listen to me at this point or should I just slide on into the background and make a vote?

I'm slightly worried about getting too paranoid. As in, someone sharing my suspicion instantly makes me feel better about the suspected person, and worse about the one who agrees with me. Gah. I'm having second thoughts on Nessa but I agree that we shouldn't vote for her toDay.

Actually. I went through the votes once again, with a hypothetical assumption that Nessa is a wolf, to see if any patterns came up. (Nessa was an easy one to begin with, since she has been suspected a lot and been in danger of being lynched thrice, so any connections with other players are more likely to show up.) What I concluded was this: If Nessa is a wolf, Rikae is one too (or else a cobbler), and vice versa. Rikae's strange retraction on Day 2 from Lottie to Inzil (both innocent, both promising lynch candidates) would make perfect sense if she was trying to save Nessa. At the time of Rikae's first vote, Nessa was on the lead and Lottie looked like the most likely runner-up for the lynch. Then Lommy gave Inzil a second vote, and Rikae switches to Inzil, bringing him to a tie with Nessa. Nessa's suspicion of Rikae and voting for her twice doesn't necessarily speak against this as Rikae was suspected by virtually no one else and faced no danger of being lynched.

However, we can't conclude anything until one of them is proven innocent or guilty. Hmm, I think I'll go have another look at the votes, to see if other connetions like this come up.


EDIT: Ouch, x-ed since Mac's 537. (Also, I almost typed "lynched since...")

I dislike the fact that she managed to "save herself" (well, not herself, but simply, escaped her fate) for three Days. And by "dislike" I mean like "that happens only in movies!" (And speaking of that, my voting for her was by elimination method from those who were already running for the lynch.)
And yes, she is a survivalist - we have made her so.
Anyway, for me she is not the issue right now anymore.

Seriously Boro I don't think you can blame anyone but yourself. You know what you've been doing.
And go on and speak, I at least am going to listen to you if you turn out innocent. :p

I know exactly what you mean.

Well, no, that isn't suspicious. But it's remarkable that both your analyses lead to a negative conclusion on the analysee (Mänwe's more than Cailíns), which makes me wonder whether the conclusion wasn't reached beforehand and the analysis made to fit. Truth to be told, that reminds me of the Shastawolf I've seen in a few games. Not exactly happy memories.

It's going to be amusing if Nessa does turn out to be a wolf and I get lynched because of it. Greenie's reasoning makes perfect sense and makes her look more innocent in my eyes because of it, and is totally wrong. ;) I was paying no attention to Nessa, and switched to Inzil because I saw a chance to lynch what, in his last post, looked even more like a wolf.

What information?

Also, don't play the martyr Boro, convince us that we are mistaken about you if that is the case. For myself, I'm having second thoughts on the identity of the cobbler as well..


EDIT: x-ed with Rikae

Yes (I won't really like it). There can be good reasons to vote somebody who's not coming back that Day but has posted, but somebody we know can't get online at all that Day? No.

I agree. Even if Cailín is a wolf, she will have three fellows we can go after.

But I don't want to vote him.

I am not suspecting you, I am wondering what the Angband are you doing.