Oh... okay, I completely misinterpreted what you meant there, then.

*jaw drops*

Nogrod– which of us tried to turn the vote away from a wolf on Day One? Which of us led a successful campaign to lynch an innocent on Day Two?

Like I said, why do you think you got dreamed?

Ah, but it is the place for IC posting...;)

I am quite ruthless towards pack mates, and with some of the stuff you've seen me pull, it's quite understandable why you're a little leery. But, it's really when I go completely unsuspected for 3-4 days when you have to worry about me. That means I'm making good sense (and attacking my wolf mates), but I'm being unconfrontational and not getting under people's skins.

And Mac would say my evidence is weak. :rolleyes: Granted that's not the entire schibang against Nerwen (I wouldn't even call it the potatoes), but it looks that's a bit of a stretch.

I don't know if it was planned in the sense "alright let's sacrifice CoD on Day 1 and sally on Day 3." But perhaps it was generally planned that McCaber would go after his wolf mates to make him look better, and hopefully there's a couple innocents lynched in between. Really who could have seen a last minute bandwagon against CoD, would end up lynching a wolf? I doubt CoD's two partners were. With all the attention Lal and I had been gathering, who could have seen sally's lynching on Day 3? Granted she had been growing in suspicion, but with how spread the votes were, how many options you had to go at the end, who saw sally's lynching until the end?

It would be a big risk, but that doesn't make it careless or stupid. That makes it risky, and dangerous, but high risk can bring high reward. Everyone thought I had just insured village victory by saying I was the ranger, when no one was suspecting me, and I the last wolf to fend for herself. I crunched the numbers, and it was a calculated risk, it paid off. It could have easily blown up in my face and the village would have been right in thinking what the heck was I doing? But it ended blowing up in your face didn't it? :p

Anyway, just because a wolf gets caught taking a risk, doesn't make him/her careless. It was a bold play and the wolf got caught. I bet you if McCaber, went to the end, as the last wolf you wouldn't all be calling it a careless play, you would be babbling on about how bold and clever it was. But, I think he's been caught, and since he was caught that obviously makes him a careless wolf then, right? :rolleyes:

Voting a half an hour early doesn't mean it's still not a safe vote. Maybe you are innocent and were starting a bandwagon against someone you knew was a wolf. Or is it a safe vote, because you knew the possibility of sally getting lynched on Day 2 was next to nil, and Day 3 I'd give you...moderate, there was a moderate chance sally would be lynched on Day 3? Also, sally's role being revealed would hopefully propel you into the "undoubtedly known innocent" category.

McCaber, ok then, you got a good record, so let's hear some more thoughts on who you think is a wolf.

Actually, didn't Nilp imply that his goal wasn't necessarily to find wolves but to stockpile innocents? I took that to mean that he'd been picking under the reindeer types who wouldn't do anything that would get them easily killed. Ie: Nogrod got dreamed because he wasn't being particularly threatening.

Though I might be totally off.

Boro–

Re: McCaber.

Yes, his behaviour could be consistent with furriness– and yes, the circumstances are such that he could still conceivably win as a lone wolf– but once you've said that, you've said everything. I mean saying he's "been caught" is a hell of a stretch.


Yes, you are. The Seer's goal is always to find wolves, first and foremost. Known innocents are the consolation prize.

In fact, Nilp dreamed a nice cross section of the village:

Brinniel –under fire from Day One.
Nogrod –suspicious behaviour on Day One.
Rikae –behaved oddly on Day One, then slipped under the radar.
Shasta –brawled with you and Boro.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

A look at Isabellkya


Day1

#47 makes some semi-serious comments on Rikae and Fea.

#82 thinks it's possible Shasta voted Boro out of revenge. Says it would be nice to catch a wolf on Day1, "but I don't think it HAS TO HAPPEN". Sympathizes with Brinn but doesn't think I had evil intentions when going after her.
"It doesn't have to happen" combined with "It happened!" is a little strange.

#103 ponders Shasta a little and then says
Throw away? If she said it was a random vote, I would believe her, but the second vote for CoD at this point was by no means a throwaway. Why did she say this?


Day2

#160 explains her vote with
Not exactly consistent with what she said before. Nothing new either.

#194 will look at Nogrod and Boro because of buddybuddy-ness and a "few things Nogrod said". She says she wants to look at Sally for the point Boro brought up earlier.

#204 detailed analysis of Nogrod and Sally. Concludes she will keep an eye on Nogrod. No clear conclusion on Sally.
This one looks actually pretty genuine.

#225 good observation about Lalwende

#233 votes Nogrod


Day3

#281 wonders why Brinn was killed because she expected another trail-less kill. Gives a vote tally without comments.

#283 questions Lal

#316 accuses Boro of copying his arguments

#320 defends her accusation and herself

#349 explains herself to Boro about her points about the relation between Boro and Nogrod

#359 contemplates Lal's cobblerdom (part of that is pondering her giftedness, which raises my eyebrow) says she will vote Nogrod or Sally

#377 votes Nogrod

A bit defensive this day.


Day4

#449 makes good points against Nogrod

#476 after Nilp revealed, she thinks McCaber and I are innocent, Boro, Lal, and Fea could be cobblers, Nerwen and Mith she's undecided about. No wolf suspects there! Other than that, the list almost scarily coincides with my own suspicions.

#489 had a closer look at Mith and didn't find anything too alarming

#498 votes Fea because everyone else looks innocent, cobblerish, or should be left to Nilp

Now, at first glance this looks all rather innocent, and it probably is, but I could also see this scenario: Izzy is very consistent about Nogrod and Sally. Now Sally was dead and Nogrod innocent. As a wolf, you usually have to make fake cases against some innocents, but you'd like to minimize their number in order to minimize retaliation. Did Izzywolf choose Nogrod to be her perpetual scapegoat? And then, after he's innocent, she's a bit lost and can't get herself to make a new fake case against an innocent, simply because what everyone else does is just so darn innocent (in the wolf's eye (I at least always feel that way as a wolf))?


ToDay

#532 defends her vote to Boro

#544 says she will look at Mith, Nerwen, and Fea. This statement about Boro is quite fishy:



Well, well, a clear-cut wolf suspect surely looks different. There are a few things that look fishy, and under the magnifying glass (and given the surrounding statements), her Day1 vote doesn't look perfectly innocent anymore.
She suspects Sally but doesn't vote for her. This could indicate that CoD's death was not intended and she'd like to keep Sally around, but at the same time can't overlook the suspicious things Sally did.

PS: this is definitely the last long analysis I will do in this game. Even for a more quiet player it's starting to become seriously toilsome. :rolleyes:

Oops!:eek:



I don't think I have any evidence as such as evidence is a rare treat in a WW-game. But I'd say the cumulative effect of small things that could be seen as pointing at the same direction does make me actually suspect Nerwen.

Talking about streching, I must agree with Nerwen that McCaber hasn't been quite caught yet - even if I agree he looks suspicious as well and his posting toDay hasn't helped his position in my eyes.


This situation I think is worth a second (and a third, and fourth...) look even if we couldn't get anything conclusive - either way - out of it.

Nerwen had somewhat openly suspected Lalwendë of cobblery but said she wished to go for a wolf rather than cobbler. I can see the point behind that - but also a wolf (if she thought Lal was indeed the cobbler which wouldn't be too far-fetched) would have loved to let the cobbler live.

Why then not vote for me or Mith to save Sally? She had made a few ligt suspicions on us both the earlier Day because of us suspecting Gwath for reasons she didn't think were good - or Mith being a possible WoW -voter.

Now one thing comes to mind - if she is a wolf that is - as the main reason for Sally to get into the mess she was in in the first place was her "saving vote" for CoD on Day1. Now Nerwen would surely like to avoid that kind of attention and not the least if she were going to be the last wolf standing, and voting for me or Mith might have raised some eyebrows if and when Sally got lynched one Day and were revealed the wolf she was.

In that case voting Boro was a safe bet for her - looks consistent and not like saving Sally.

I have in mind an innocent Nerwen scenario as well but I think she should produce it herself... :)

Interstingly Nerwen has basically nothing to say of Sally even if she was on everyone's mouth and ascted pretty suspicipusly indeed. Only on Day2 she notifies her strange manouvres with CoD but even that post ends up in a way whitewashing Sally. After that there is no mention of Sally in her posts (at least I didn't find one).


*Confused* :confused:

Okay, here's what got my thoughts in that direction:

Pondering the difference between a strategic mindset and a tactical mindset... Winning the game 'mathematically' I assumed to mean that he wanted to win by numbers, not necessarily by a typical strategic style. Yes, obviously you want to find wolves. But another tactic for a seer might be to let the villagers find wolves and you (the seer) give them a list of known ordos to narrow it down. It's cool if you know one wolf, but it's quite frankly more handy to know ordos once the wolf is dead and you've got to figure out what to do next. Otherwise you're still sitting blind.

Nogrod, I have already answered all the points you made in your last post.

And once again, I did not "whitewash" Sally. I mentioned her behaviour as suspicious, but also thought it fair to include the extenuating circumstances.

Rikae– known innocent– had exactly the same qualms. Here she is at #158:

I did not vote Boro to save Sally. I voted him because I thought him suspicious. Really. It's as simple as that.

If I've seemed rather detached from the game, it's because I've had a huge amount of work on this week– I wouldn't have joined in if I'd realized how much.

Now, sure, by taking things I've said out of context, you can make a lovely case against me. It happens to be wrong. Get over it, please.

I am here and also befuddled. I am going to try and read through and see which combo looks most probable. Laters.

I'd love to be able to do that as I really think you would be a great ally in this game were you an innocent. If the ranger had saved Nilp we might know it now and wouldn't waste our time on this (are you an innocent) or had won already (are you a wolf).

But then again, do you have any other ideas? Who's the wolf if you're not? That would help us indeed... and are you innocent I'd figure you would try to help in the search.

Well, the same goes to McCaber as well. I haven't seen too many openings from him either this Day.

I understand - and have experience of it for a bit too many times :) - that when one is innocent and generally suspected (or strongly by a few) one would like to just counter-argue the points raised and try to survive (getting lynched is an inncoent lynch and you know it yourself)... but wouldn't it be better to also try and help? At least I get the urge of trying to turn every stone in the end if I see I'm going to the gallows as an innocent to make my last contribution. A wolf wouldn't care too much about that - unless s/he thought by that effort to avoid the lynch.

Why did I say that? It's too late to set any traps tp/Eomer -way so I'd just wish to see your contributions to who do you two think is the last wolf and why.


At the moment I feel I'm going to vote either McCaber or Nerwen, depending on a host of possibilities yet to be seen during the last hour. If there is a breakthrough in any other direction I'm most willing to change my mind though.

When innocent, I don't get the "I still want to help" urge if people are after me. I get the "Idiots, you're absolutely wrong, I hope when I'm proven innocent this comes back to kick you in the rear, for the fact that you are wrong" feeling. Which is why I will leave the McCaber thing to rest, for now, I've said all I've needed to say and I won't repeat myself. But I am willing to bet it all that he's a wolf, and if I'm wrong, maybe I deserve to be lynched.

And do not forget Fëa either...

If there are no complex or bold WoW strategies around it's Fëa and Nerwen who look the most suspicious.

I mean a lot seems to come down to the question whether the wolves were boldly voting each other to look good later even if they had to fight against the numbers (McCaber, Mith, Izzy... maybe even Mac or Boro) or they played more as a team trying not to decrease their numbers if they could avoid it (Nerwen, Fëa).

I know, but I'm working right now on an animation that's due tomorrow. I told you, I wouldn't have taken on this game if I'd realized I'd have so much work on.

I promise I'll be more helpful toMorrow.

Currently I don't have much of a clue... The person I'm thinking of voting is Fea, on account of her general weirdness, including the recent rambling about Seer strategy, which looks rather like a deliberate attempt to waste time... but I don't have time to make a case against her.

EDIT: X'd with Fea, Boro and Nogrod.

Ugh.
So hard to scroll through the pages.

Mith 399 onwards..

More banter and ic moments.

#441
She says that Nerwen, Ixxy, and Shasta are creeping her out. Nerwen the most. Lal is the best Cobbler bet, but doesn't understand Fea.

#495
Lal is the most Cobblerish, hard to think anyone else is.
Boro and Fea could be bored, and amusing themselves.

#506
Nerwen - Creepiest
Feanor of the Peredhil - Tweedledum
Boromir88 - Tweedledee
]Nilpaurion Felagund - Seer soi-disant. No reason to doubt.
Nogrod - Seer named ordo
McCaber - Creepy but ...
Shastanis Althreduin - Seer named Ordo
Mithalwen - Self named Ordo
Isabellkya - can't writer her off quite despite that vote.
Lalwendë - Cobbler - de facto or actual
Macalaure - Perhaps ought to check my assumption of innocence to prevent self looking silly.....

#518
Votes McCaber; saying "Only of my creepies likely to go and prefer to get a woluf than cobbler if possible."


Which I find odd. Unless I am mistaken, Boro had been the only other person in the realm of voting for Caber. Where as, I believe there were more possible Nerwen voters.

#528
"I have to go but will be back earlier tomorrow but I voted Mc Caber because he was the only of my main WOLF suspects who I stood a chance of being lynched. I was certain that Lal was teh cobbler and prepared to ignore her."


In one of your posts #443; you say I was swift on Day two to "point out" that I'd voted for CoD. Yet here you are in #528, three posts after Durelin's; explaining why you voted for Caber. You'd already done so when you made the vote. So why again? If I was swift, then you were... break neck speed?
I find it a bit fishy that you went for Caber instead of Nerwen, even though she was a higher suspect to you.


Fea
Day one is a lot of banter and IC posts..
Watching Boro very closely.

#871, you vote Boro, then say he can figure it out, and that there is a great chance you are right.

- You are right that he is a wolf, or you are right he will figure it out?


Day two
More banter.
Calls Shasta a wolf, because of apology towards Boro, and response.
Tied between Boro and Shasta.
Votes Boro.

Day three
Could see a Mithwolf.
negligible threat: Nilp, Nog, Mac, Shasta
Worrisome: Rikae, Nerwen, Boro, Mith, Lal
Barely know is playing:Sally, Caber, Izzy, Fea
Votes Mith.

Day four
Asks Boro if he wants her to vote for Lal.
Desperately wants to know Boro's role.

Day five
Doesn't understand Ranger not protecting Nilp.
Obsessed with Boro
Thought Nilp was stock piling innocents, rather than hunting wolves.

I definitely agree that your obsession with Boro in this game is unhealthy, and not really helping anyone.


I'm torn between Mith and Fea.
But something tells me from what I've re-read/skimmed of Nerwen
My vote might go there.



X'ed since mith's 569

Nerwen - still probably my best bet. The decision would be easier if only she felt suspicious. But she doesn't.
Fea - a lot of strangeness in her, but her bluff still makes her seem innocent to me.
Boro - probably innocent.
McCaber - is really trying hard to make himself look bad today.
Mith - has not done anything to make me suspicious in this game.
Izzy - could be the wolf, but isn't a top-shelf suspect for me right now.

I'm definitely not going to vote for Fea, Boro, or Mith. But which one of the other three? :confused:

Everyone by way of his character... :rolleyes: :D


Btw. reasons I think Fëa should be looked a bit more closely include - on top of those I made in my two posts on Fëa and Nerwen earlier toDay - are these:
- She seems to be pretty ready to defend herself even if a light suspicion is thrown at her this late in the game when the stakes are getting higher.
- She has carefully limited her suspicions to a few only (mainly Boro - which has been done in a banterish way so as to not look serious threat to Boro), Mith (with all the apologies and stuff) and Shasta).
- Today she has mainly discussed the matter of why Nilp chose the dreams he did which I think is a complete waste of time and effort - but it doesn't normally raise suspicions as no one gets suspected by that and no retaliations will follow which is very important at this phase to the last wolf.

So please consider her as well toMorrow if we don't get the wolf toDay.


EDIT: X'd from Nerwen onwards...

who were the other Nerwen voters? Mc Caber and Nerwen were on one each when I voted and I suppose that I had decided to trust Boro for the time being. And Nerwen ... I jus thought I was more likely to eb wrong about her - she mixes up her playing...

++ Nerwen


I may not have been able to look at all posts in-depth(ly); but the gut feeling.


I am in need of heading out the door now.



X'since 576.

I would probably vote for Nerwen now, but it almost seems unfair seeing that she would finally be able to give more input from tomorrow on.

What I don't like about voting McCaber is that, if he's innocent, I won't be able to tell Boro that I told him so. ;)

Voting Izzy seems pointless right now, and I'm not convinced enough of her guilt to start a last minute campaign.

Exactly my words! And her latest post was a good one indeed (hah, someone's points are good if they agree with my own... :rolleyes:).

Also what you Mac say of McCaber I have to agree: even if Boro's case against him looks a bit far-fetched (even if possible and ingeniously made by Boro) his posting toDay has been terrible with all those slips made under pressure...

Will do, even though Fea (along with Mith) haven't looked suspicious to me at all, the bottom line is they aren't known innocents and it's dangerous to let them run free. I'm a little more confident in Mith's innocence, because she's the calming breath of fresh air Mith, and I'm 99% certain if Mith was a wolf she would have lynched me on Day 1 no questions asked.

Fea, while has been crazy, as she said she's demented and we all know that. But it's an enjoyable kind of dementia, hasn't seemed evil. But, there can't be any harm in considering something evil behind it all.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Mith's post.

*sigh*


Well, it looks like you're all going to lynch me. I'm not going to bother defending myself any further– then you'll just jump on me for being "defensive".

Besides, I honestly don't see what I have to defend myself against. Yeah, I suspected some people who turned out to be innocent. So have all of you.:rolleyes:

At least I didn't get any innocents lynched.:p

While I'm still here... someone look at Izzy toMorrow. I keep forgetting about her.

EDIT: X'd since Izzy at #579.

Making this a run away won't be beneficial, let's turn up the pressure...

++McCaber

Any idea on the tally? Two votes for Nerwen, right but are there others?

I'd be inclined to try out McCaber more than Nerwen right now. As Izzy said - although making the opposite decision - ... the gut feeling...

Perhaps it would be a good idea if you didn't hold your vote to the end this time Nogrod, let's see what some of the unknowns decide this time.

Oh my... I'm not sure of what to make of Nerwen's last one... It wasn't the most calming one in any sense...

Okay, I'm in for it...

++ McCaber

Yes were I a wolf these are exactly the people I would want to keep at endgame - NOT. 3 people I have wolfed with and Nogrod who generally spots me as a wolf and Fea ..... Fea is worrying me a lot now. Again it is hard when you know how brilliant people can be as wolves to trust them. With McCaber and Issy there is this WOW issue Ican't decide on ., gah must choose.

Evidence: Nerwen.

Gut: McCaber.

Considering our numbers, I think I can afford to go with my gut...

++McCaber

I mean even if there have been time constraints on Nerwen she has actually played somewhat actively and would earn to play toMorrow.

Indeed. I'm annoyed.

EDIT: X'd since Nogrod at #587.

Posted without reason due to time factor. If not Mc Caber need to rethink. If Nerwen is innocent her input may be most helpful.

Well, then–

++McCaber.

Let's hope Boro's right.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

:rolleyes:

Hah, don't be.

But use toMorrow well if you can spare some time - and are an innocent (if we fail toDay that is).

Good luck to all of you!
(and don't underestimate Fëa)

and I am liable to find passion convincing .. :D

I put up or I shut up, if not McCaber, I'll shut it.

You may yet survive ..... Ranger do your stuff ...

The Day is over. But will another Night come?

McCaber is dead (for now). Since this poster is not Durelin (she is at a Renn Fair), I (CoD) won't reveal his role. Y'know, just in case my counting was off and he isn't actually dead...

Oh the suspense!