Bah, well, as long as I'm talking about it anyway... jeez, he could have ignored my hints because he *didn't* send his own name to the wraiths after all. In fact, I can think of a reason why he wouldn't... oh, I'm so stupid... *headdesk*

I'm sorry Ms. Ferny, but I'm afraid your act is over. It was a clever move and I applaud you that, but I'm sure you didn't count on one of your so called "dreams" to be the seer.

Don't believe Lommy for a second. She is smart and deceptive. And she probably wanted to take the heat off some possible wraiths or draw out the real seer (which she has in fact done). Unfortunately for her and fortunately for us, Sally actually is a wraith. I dreamt of her last Night. I'm sure Lommy wasn't expecting that.

Night 1: Lommy
Night 2: Nogrod
Night 3: Rune
Night 4: Sally

I dreamt of Lommy as an ordo, which is why she cannot be a wraith. She is the informer, and a sneaky one at that.

If you don't believe me, I recommend you check my posts and you'll see that I am telling the truth. Also, if I actually were a wraith, do you really think I would dare to leave Lommy alive? After Fea's game, no. I admit I make mistakes, but I would never make the same mistake twice. :rolleyes:

Anyway, it would be a waste of time to lynch the cobbler. Especially when we have a known wraith in our grasp. Frodo may have been turned, but at least we are one wraith down.

++Sally

I'd love to be of more help, but I'm afraid I cannot be here much until around 7ish pm EST as I have classes most of the day.

*sigh*

Alas, had the seer dreamt of me a different Night she may have found my intentions quite different. :(

Re: Rune.
YesterDay I legitimitely thought he could be evil, cobbler perhaps if not something else, but obviously toDay it would be unfair to comment on such matters.



In other news I have to head to class.

In even other news the duck tells me to say this: "By Elbereth and Luthien the Fair, you shall have neither the Ring nor me!"

Back around lunchtime. (Heh, I made a typo and accidentally said 'lynchtime' at first.)

Well, now that is at least getting interesting.

But unless we have some real master-plot involved, things are clear. We got a WW and a Ringbearer, now we need two more Wolves.

That Sally would be the RB makes lot of sense - the difference in her posting, not being so vocal as usually, etc.

Brinn's defense against being revealed as a WW is a very feeble one. That's the only reason why I could see it being a trick (and Lommy, Brinn and Sally being all wolves, for example. But that won't make sense as they would all reveal and make themselves dead for nothing. Therefore, Lommy's claim is proven as truthful for me).

Now, I wonder who are the two other ones. We should not give ourselves to easy sleep and try to work on finding them, as if our lives depended on it. (Well, they do, actually.)

<==Let'sh *hic* shelebrate! We're gonna *hic* lynch a wraith! *passes out on floor*
 

A sneaky one you are, Lommy. And Brinn, I always figured you were on our side.

Well, Sally is evil, we can all agree on that. And by tomorrow we'll know another person's role. I'd suggest looking at Mac during the next Night phase, but that's just me.

In the meantime, these are our possible wraiths:
Lariren Shadow
Mirandir
Legate of Amon Lanc
Rikae
Aganzir
Beregond
Nerwen
Macalaure
A Little Green

For now, though...

++Sally

I don't believe you, and I'm pressed for time. Care to point out exactly what, in your posts, I should look for? A seer hint?

Incidentally, look at the first letters of the sentences in my first and second posts of Day 1. Obviously, I am not the seer, and not Frodo (why would I reveal now)? I'm just somebody who wanted some backup plans to avoid lynching if necessary.

Anyone can leave hints.
:p

Oh yeah, and:

++Sally

Sorry, not my first and second posts of Day one, but my first and this one.

Brinniel, I do not have time to look through all your posts, so can you please be more specific? As it is, I am much more inclined to believe Lommy than you.

Assuming Brinniel is indeed lying– I think it might be worth having a look at Greenie.

Anyway–

++Sally

Oh, and Rikae? You're just pure evil.:cool:

Very subtle! Nicely done. I at one point thought you might be Frodo, though I forget why (maybe it was your subliminal message) - then you said you were Frodo, and I mostly abandoned the theory.


Well, at least today's vote is clear, barring some master-plot as Legate said. I haven't decided which of our seers is the impostor, but the real one may be a victim tomorrow, unless the wraiths keep her alive for confusion's sake. Not that we sit on our hands, mind, but for now I'm going to vote early for voting early's sake.

++Sally

This must be one of those clues Brinn indicates she left.

Sorry. . .I did not post as promised. I my self have a cold and simply fell a sleep on my sofa, now I have to go. I will vote tonight, but unless I get better I will not contribute with much more than that.

btw, I have no idea who is telling the truth. . .Lommy or Brinn, I did not understand why Legate found Brinn's defence so weak.

Brinn's way of revealing looks more honest compared to Lommy (when a baddie tries to impersonate a gifted, there's often a certain by-the-way attitude, which I think Lommy had in her post. Garr I can't explain it better, it's just that it takes you a while to realise there's a gifted revealing. Okay that was a bad way of saying it, it's hard to explain), but I trust Lommy more. She being the seer makes much more sense.

Kitanna, if the seer dreamed of Frodo last night, was she told it was Frodo the Wraith or just a Wraith?

Because I just can't see why sally would reveal her exact role when she had a chance to confuse us and make us waste time by going to look for people whose behaviour has changed. Unless she still remembers her happy days as an ordinary Breelander and feels pity for us in spite of the Morgul blade that pierced her heart... :p Or then she's double-bluffing.

Berry, why do you think that post is a clue? I see it quite another way - Brinn says she's convinced that Fea (who she never dreamed of) is evil.

I'll go through the voting properly once we know for certain who's lying because I don't feel like taking a risk of just speculating on the wrong things when I've been so insubstantial thus far. Instead I'll make that Mira case now.

I shouldn't have quoted the whole post - I meant only the last part:

"Of course we can't ignore the early voters (or the non-voters) either, as I'm sure there's at least one wraith among them. Really what I need to do is take a closer look at everyone, as I'm sure someone is slipping under my radar. But that'll have to wait until tomorrow as it is extremely late and I must sleep."

Which could have been a hint, or...not.

If she had dreamed of an early voter or a non-voter and found xem a wolf, she would have been more specific. If she wasn't specific, it isn't a hint.

However it's good that you quoted the whole post because there was quickly to be found at least one thing that makes me more positive she's lying. Although I remember Lommy wavering about the dreamed-of Fea too... But it was different.

Actually I just meant the part about "taking a closer look at everyone" having to wait till "tomorrow" after "sleep".

Which is probably my overactive imagination. Or a hint left with good, or bad, intentions.

I don't know who to believe, really. :(

Simply. It would be quite lucky (read: really improbable thing to happen) for Lommy to come up as a Seer, and by chance pick the real Seer among her suspects. But on the other hand, what could have poor Brinnwolf done when the real Seer Lommy came out with revealing her? She could have either said "I am innocent, please real Seer, come out", or simply give it a shot herself. Which is very weak, but seems like Brinn decided to do that.

I thought about that too, at first. But then, after re-reading Sally's post, I ruled that out. It would have been helpful for the Wolves to lure the village into confusion on whether one of the Wolves who remain is a Wolf from the beginning or Frodo, but Sally gave it out, and I believe it was an innocent slip. Most of all, because I believe she was not able to communicate with the Wolves yet: I presume at Night, everybody sent their picks, and the Mod needed to get the PM from Wolves, then wait also for the PM from the Ranger (if perchance he did not save the target), and only then send PM to Frodo that he was turned. It would make sense that Sally could not PM with the Wolves at all, therefore she saw her newly formed Wraith-star rise and fall. Most lucky, otherwise it might have helped the general confusion.

Note also that it is interesting that Brinn names Sally also being dreamt of only on the fourth night. That calls for attention. Of course the Wolves were aware that Sally was turned just on the last night: therefore, had the false Seer said that she dreamed of Sally let's say on Night 3, it won't make sense. I take both the Seer's lists - whichever of them would be the right one - also as another proof that Sally is Frodo.

I don't think that's much of a hint. Or at least I would not have taken it as one. But Brinn will surely tell us if she wants to, what she meant by hints.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan and Bere

(So, my dance class lasted only a half hour because our pianist never showed due to the blizzard. Unfortunately, it meant me walking a half hour in the snow just to take a half hour class, not to mention my boots aren't waterproof. On the positive side, it means I have a bit more time to post.)

Any particular reason why you don't believe me? What makes Lommy's reveal so much more believable? (I ask not just Rikae this.) As for hints, no I didn't leave a secret message inside my posts; I found it'd be too obvious and like you said, anyone can leave a hint. But if you look through my posts, you will see my word follows through and I have consistently defended those who I knew to be innocent. Lommy has no more evidence than I do. She may be clever, but don't let her fool you. This village has already been misled enough, and I would hate to see happen again.

Yes, you didn't explain it well because that makes no sense to me. You find me more honest, but would rather trust Lommy?

Yes, I was convinced Fea was evil; her behaviour seemed so suspicious I couldn't see how she possibly could be innocent. I didn't dream of her because I thought it likely she was the cobbler, and she'd only turn up as an ordo. Obviously I was very wrong.

Ringbearer would be how the dream came out.

I believe Brinn spoke about tomorrow and sleep in RL, which I wouldn't regard as hints. Also, I don't think Brinn is the kind of player who would leave hints along the lines "Look! I am the seer!" instead of only hints to players she had dreamed of.

Oh yes that makes sense. I just somehow automatically assumed she'd be on the evil side also in spirit from the moment she was turned and would do everything she could to mislead us before her death.

edit: xed with Brinn & Kitanna. Okay thanks. So sally is apparently not the Ringbearer then...?

However this is interesting. Do you realise what it means? Kitanna, does it mean then - if I may ask just for clarification - that even if Ringbearer was turned the very night, the Seer would see him as Ringbearer and not Wraith???

No I was talking merely about the ways you two revealed. In general I trust Lommy more than you because I find it rather easier to see you as a baddie than her.
Plus, I doubt a baddie who is practically not at all suspected would pretend to be the seer. Yeah to draw out the real seer, but I doubt it. And to be honest, I'm not sure Lommy would do it even if she was the cobbler. It just doesn't seem like something she would do without any provocation. :p

edit: xed with Legate. What difference would it make? The seer would know in the morning anyway that Frodo was a wraith.

Just like I said above, my answer would be:

Improbable perhaps, but certainly not impossible. When Lommy revealed, she knew that someone would counter-reveal. If I looked remotely seerish to her, why not say she dreamt me as a wraith? It would be a smart thing to do actually; her reveal would look more believable and I would be easier to lynch.

It makes a difference. If it is so, it makes it clear that Sally is not Frodo by any means. Because neither of our Seers mentioned Sally as being a RB - they both said she is a Wraith.

So it seems (if it indeed was so) that Sally tried to confuse us by making us think she was Frodo. Where she wasn't. (So once again, I may take back what I said above :rolleyes: I am really brilliant in this game, seemingly.)

That would be possible, but it looks far more complicated than the simple version that you decided to go with retaliation. After Lommy's revelation, there was not much choice for you, if you are a Wolf.

Oh yes. I just didn't realise you were talking about sally & our seers and not the RB role in general. :rolleyes:

Yep. Okay, whatever.

We vote

++Sally

aka the Wraith from the beginning,

whereas we may take a look at her posting and try to find out if there are "friends" of hers to be found based on the interaction.

Oh, and another reason why I don't believe Brinn. Not only she is so lucky that she happens to be a Seer when Lommy just called her a Wraith, but also she was soo lucky again to dream of Lommy on first Night! To dream of the Wraith who just called her a Seer. Lucky indeed, eh? This is so rusty.

Oh sorry. I take it back. Brinn actually said she dreamt of her as an Ordo, thereby coming to the conclusion that she is Ferny. Oh my, what's wrong with me?!? Really. Somebody else than just me should post, or I will only make a mess again.

(However, still it is lucky for Brinn to dream of Lommy. So many random chances? Does that even happen?)

Legate, for one time in your life you're funny. :p

I always find it rather a coincidence that there are two seers. Some day when I'm a wolf I want to try revealing before the real seer and see which one is believed. It would also be funny to mod a game with two of each gifted and no one knowing about it.

Of course she's trying to confuse us. She's a wraith who's just been exposed. My best advice is to not listen to anything she has to say.

This is hardly a valid argument. First, I never called her a wraith. Secondly, why not dream of Lommy? Is she that unusual for a seer pick? Anyways if I were a wraith, wouldn't I have chosen to make my life much easier by claiming I hadn't dreamt of her and she could either be a cobbler or wraith? I'm not choosing to make my claim look more doubtful. I dreamt of Lommy because in last several games we've played, she's managed to deceive me. Lommy is some who has a tendency to look innocentish and I wanted to be sure she wasn't a wraith.

EDIT: Okay, I see your correction. Fair enough, as we all make mistakes. But I still hold to the second half of my argument.

Gotta go to class now..

I'm not feeling very confident, myself. I'm going to flog my "math skills" to make myself feel better. ;)

While I'm not trying to defend Brinn, lets remember that likelihood isn't everything. If Lommy made up her seer list, and picked one villager for each of four nights, then in simple terms the chances of her picking the seer is 4 out of 19 - a 21% chance. Not bad, really. The chances of Brinn picking Lommy on day one, obviously, are higher.

Lommy revealed first, leaving Brinn with few choices than to do something to confuse us all and make us think twice about who is really the seer. She's done that quite well, and her seer list seems to jive with what she's said in the game previously. As does Lommy's, I think.

Mirandir
 

First, I don't know how much weight I should put on this all since despite watching over Fea & Lari's shoulders, this is still Mira's first game.

On day 1 she mostly bantered with others. She was always rather quick to defend Fea & Lari, but it's maybe understandable.

Okay this is a minor thing but she said Looks can be deceiving, Berry suggested she's a wolf because she doesn't look like one, and she said he caught her. I don't know if a newbie wolf would do that.

Sorry I'm slow but what did you mean with this?

Then there this which tripped my radar:
The beginning makes me a bit uneasy because it kind of screams "We are aligned! Close your eyes and don't see it!" but on the other hand I find it quite unlikely that those two are wolves together, because, well, two rather new wolves just doesn't sound very probable.
However it was the ending that I really didn't like because it reminds me of the way Lari reacted to Boro's accusations in last game. I thought about mentioning it in that game, didn't do it and had to regret it when the wolves won. That comment is jumpy the same way. No one is lynching you yet for defending other players.

She voted for Lommy, whose flip-flopping had been bothering her for the past few pages. Her vote post is close to the end of Page 5. Lommy's last post is close to the end of Page 3. The first lines of that post were Continuing my flip-flopping on this topic...
Why vote someone because of something she has admitted herself? Well yeah of course she could be trying to look good by admitting the weird things she does, but Lommy is famous for her flip-flopping (okay this is not something I automatically expect you to know). But the vote is a bit forced-looking still, especially as she hadn't talked about Lommy at all earlier.
When Mira voted, it became Brinn-3, Mac-2, Lommy-2, Gollum-2, Lari&me-1. If she and Brinn are wolves together, why didn't she vote for Mac to slighten the chance Brinn was lynched? If Lommy is a lying Ferny (which I'm not inclined to believe but include here for the sake of coherency), Mirawolf couldn't probably have known about it yet so it means nothing.

Although I agree with Mira that the Gollum bandwagon was odd, I think her reaction to it
is a bit exaggerated. If she's a wolf, she knew Gollum was innocent and could make herself look a bit better by saying that.

Then day 2... She didn't have much time to be online and made a summary post about an hour before deadline.
Something in Brinn's posting style rubbed her the wrong day but she couldn't put her finger on it and didn't want to vote for her as of yet.
She didn't seem to have an opinion on Lommy, apart from saying could be innocent or could be alluding to a more devious role, but I'm not sure if she's talking about her or Rikae, as she quoted a post where Lomz talked about Rikae.
Of sally she said she hadn't been around much that day.
As for her other suspects, she was very suspicious of Rikae's roleplay. According to her, Rikae's seer post was most likely a joke but still warrants suspicion. Why? She also suggested Mac could be a baddie but it wasn't wholly serious, I think.

*pauses to eat a Fair Trade banana and wants to share this information with you because bananas are good*

Mira also asked why there had been no talk about who the ranger might be although every other role had been discussed. Well there had been a reason to talk about the other roles, but usually it's better if we don't share our speculations on them because it's always possible the wolves haven't realised those things yet.
I could see that as a newbie-wolfish seemingly innocent inquiry.

She was quite quick to agree with Fea when she accused Dury. Fea was innocent but that doesn't change the fact that Durelin was an easy lynch with, erm, not so good reasons.
The only thing Mira had said about Dury in her analysis was that she hadn't posted much that day. Now all of a sudden she was mighty suspicious. Okay, granted, she posted IC under an hour before deadline only after Mira's post, but Mira accused her for her first ranger post.
She ended up voting Dury. I find her vote fishy. Her explanation was that she posted IC 40 minutes before deadline which was a strange move and makes her very suspicious. This was the first time she mentioned Dury's IC posting, which others had mentioned earlier, though. It's just such an easy vote that it bothers me. She xed with two other Dury votes, though, so she probably thought hers to be the second instead of fourth vote for Dur.

Mira was suspicious of Rune because of the way he treated Fea. I think her reasons were pretty much dependent on Fea's guilt, of which people were rather sure yesterday.
She voted for Rune after an argument between them. Today she hasn't been around yet.

The conclusion I reached yesterday was that she was more suspicious than today, but back then there were some Fea comments that looked like they could have been said by a fellow or someone who knows Fea is evil. I don't think I have added most of them here as they didn't seem relevant anymore.

I don't really know. There are several things that make me suspicious of her, but on the other hand, the overall tone of her posts doesn't look very wolfish. Also, she's new, which probably explains her occasional going with the flow.

I'm not suspicious enough to vote for her, at least for now, but I'll keep an eye on her.

Thank you :) But I hope that I won't play in that game of yours where you put in two Seers or such...

I am not saying you could not have picked Lommy, but if you are a Seer, it is lucky you picked her, when it was her who revealed you as a Wolf, while you were in fact the Seer.

Most of all, however, you had to say something now to react to Lommy. You could have said you haven't dreamt of her, but that won't be of that much help: in either case, it will still be clear that one of you must be lying. And in that scenario, if Lommy were lying, she would have been either a Wraith or a Cobbler, again, and it would be between the two of you, who are we going to believe. One reason I can think of why you named Lommy was that maybe you haven't even given it thought into that depth and had to react. The other reason, more probable as it would be more clever, which I would expect from you more, could be that this way, you minimized "losses": you already had to name some people on your list to "fill in" - okay, you could have afforded to name one dead innocent, more would be probably a problem. Rune could be either a fellow Wolf or an innocent you are trying to get to your side and making it seem logical (you and Rune had a row, it would make sense if you tried to dream of him later). Sally was done for, you decided to buy yourself another day, hoping that by burying Sally, you get one day and who knows what may happen - toMorrow, it will still be between you and Lommy, if she is alive. Now you had to fill in some last person into your list, which meant either writing another Wolf there, or an Innocent. Both is in its way uncomfortable. Writing a generally known person - Lommy (who is either a Seer or now, by your claim, Ferny) - you would minimize losses.
But that's just my calculation on how it might be. You must know, and this is what I think, if you ask me. And it does not problematise not trusting you for me.

I'm feeling quite good about Legate right now. Of the others I don't know yet.

I'm going to go and finish my Paper Telephone pic now. A friend of mine said it's a caricature of a 50-year-old Rune. The same friend was a few days ago also convinced Lommy, Rune and Brinn are the wolves.

I see Agan has joined in the random produce-mentioning game, which means she's obviously in league with Greenie, Berry, and Rune. :P

It's not really that simple, though. If we're lucky, the ranger will protect her. If we're even luckier, the ranger will successfully pull off a bluff of not protecting her when the wraiths expect him to, and then be able to protect her toMorrow night, buying her two dreams. It's been done before. ;)

On all this Sally-Frodo business, I had been meaning to mention, when I got back, that she might well be lying, but I see that's all sorted now. Yeah, it's definitely in the wraiths' interest to have us chasing after a veteran wraith who doesn't exist while ignoring the posts of one who does.

Sure. If Lommy is doing this as a wraith, she's sacrificing both herself and her buddy – half the team – at a time when neither is suspected. Sure, some might, but Lommy is not Fea, Nilp, or yours truly, so I wouldn't expect crazy suicidal moves.
It would be pretty foolish for her to try it as Ferny, as well, unless she had a very good idea of who the wraiths actually were so she could avoid getting them killed. If there had been some sort of hinting to give her such an idea, she wouldn't have named Sally.

Your reveal, on the other hand, makes perfect sense for a trapped wraith. Good try, I admire your fighting spirit, but it isn't going to work.

It does occur to me, though:

Why don't we lynch Brinn first? Sally is tbe less experienced of the two, and therefore, she's the one I'd rather have helping make the kill choice toNight and advising Mr. Underhill. Besides, Sally's death is not going to shed any light on the Brinn-Lommy situation (if anyone is seriously wondering about it).

*glug glug*
 

One thing I'm wondering about: If Brinn is a wraith, which I definitely consider possible, why does she also mention Sally as a wraith? And why would a Lommywraith point the finger at her fellow wraith Sally if she wants to sow confusion?

This whole thing just seems wrong.

Ah, but that's the brilliance of it. The chances she'd stop us from testing Lommy's seer reveal by lynching one of those she calls wraiths is slim to none. Normally, after the lynch proves the real seer right, any other wolf she dreamed would be done for. This way, she would still have a (tiny) chance.

So we have yet another seer in the village? Well, the more the merrier! I think that Brinn's claim is more likely false than Lommy's, since I find it more probable that a wraith-Brinn tries for a desperate self-defence after she's been revealed (really, if she's a wraith that's the best way for her to at least try something) than a Ferny-Lommins (I like the sound of that word. Fernylommins. Sounds cute. :D)(Looks like I really am in a need of sleep.) just ex tempore deciding to try and draw out the real seer.

To answer the first question, she might have considered Sally a "lost case" since Lommyseer (that, in turn, sounds like a musketeer!) revealed her and decided to admit Sally's guilt to deny her own. Do I make sense? As for your second question, well, Brinn never said Lommy was a wraith but named her as Ferny trying to draw the real seer from hiding. Since it seems quite evident that Sally is a wolf, though, she'd be quite a clumsy Fernylommins.

I might as well vote already now.

++ Sally

I would have wanted to make a list toDay but unfortunately it's getting late (for me) and studying for my English test took me longer than I had thought. Well, it seems my list must wait until toMorrow since Lommie seems like she'd love to post and I'm tired and want to go to sleep.


EDIT: x-ed with Rikae