Refresh my memory, folks. Has anything happened between Boro, Mac, Greenie & Mänwe that would prevent them from being wolves together? Suspicions too hot, that sort of thing? When Mac went after Boro the other Day, there was little chance of lynching Boro as Mac well knew. I can't recall anything else at the moment.

Anyway, I doubt very highly Shasta would have mixed together dreamed innocents with others in that "green" category, and it seems to be the best hint we have to go on. Greenie therefore earns baddie points by trying to cast doubt on it, especially since Agan could easily have been a dreamed "ordo" and actual cobbler at that point.
The Mänwe business is simply not as clear, contrary to what Agan says: "would be the first..." sounds more like a plan to dream him rather than a reference to an already dreamed wolf, but a Mänwe wolf, in that case, could still have killed Shasta because of that. At any rate, his posting toDay looks about as far from innocent as you can get. I can't see an innocent being so calm or detached in his situation: it is more like the response of a trapped wolf who decides to try reasoning his way out of things for the heck of it. The Boro/Mänwe "trying to play cobbler" business is especially bad. Sorry, Boro, but that looks like an explanation made up after the fact, or perhaps tacked on to the fact that, as a wolf, you wanted to pass yourself off as the cobbler, and Mänwe, is that a joke? If not, that's a pretty weak attempt at explaining yourself.

I won't be around the rest of the morning, but when I return I'll try to explain my thinking as thoroughly as I can, since as a known innocent, I'm likely to be toast toNight (of course, if we get a wolf toDay as we have to, the ranger may be able to block the one kill toNight, which would be a long overdue bit of good luck for us...).

I have been thinking about Wolf-on-Wolf attempts which might have taken place during yesterDay, and I would not put it past Mac nor past his opponents.

Now, now. I am not sure it was that much of casting doubt, not more than Agan herself did as well (about herself!). And generally, from her behavior, Greenie seems to me innocent-ish.

If I were to say the Wolves now, I would say: Mänwe, Mac, Cailín, possibly Wilwa or skip. I would bet rather safely at either of the former and with a questionmark on the latter two.

If so, whom do you think Shasta would have dreamed about, if not Mänwe? But no, I think it is quite plausible that he dreamed of him, and his "announcement" of that he is going to look at him that Day was just a sort of screen against being suspected of being the Seer. Given that Shasta's tactic was obviously not speaking out "hi, I am the Seer, this and this is innocent, this and this is Wolf...", it would fit for him to try to make it appear as if he suddenly found Mänwe innocent only during analysis of him. He did the same with me, in fact, saying "okay, after rereading I don't find Legate so suspicious anymore". Yet of course nobody believes that it was rereading which made him think good of me.

Anyway, let me now vote

++Mänwe

I am going away now, I will be back before DL still I hope, but just in case...

Yes, it was that one.

I want opinions on this one: is it a slip or am I paranoid? Mac seems to automatically assume he's alive the next Day.

I don't like Boro's seer analysis that much. Too much rests on the premise that Shasta was 100% obvious in his hints, therefore if something is only 99% obvious, it's not a hint.

Assuming Mänwe is a wolf, I'm wondering how the wolves would react now. Abandon hope and plan to continue with three, or try to deceive a large enough number of innocent (that would be only 2!) and win the game unless the ranger has some luck.

If Mänwe is not a wolf, it's easy. They would declare him likely dreamt of (maybe with a back door of "we can't be 100% sure, but the evidence is strong enough" or so) and vote for him.

The problem: most people I trust believe Mänwe is a wolf (Legate and Agan in particular), most people I don't trust have doubts (Cailín and Boro come to mind, Rikae, too, unfortunately).


ToDay it's 7-4.
We lynch Mänwe and he's a wolf, then toMorrow: 6-3
That means we have one wrong lynch left, i.e. you can lynch me toMorrow and we can still win. I find that comforting, because I don't really feel like defending myself against all that suspicion.

Right now, I think Boro and Skip are most interesting to look at. I hope I'll have the time.

I don't know what to say. I just read yesterDay's discussion closely and that made me feel worse about Macalaure, slightly better about Skip, amused by Boromir and confused about A Little Green. Fairly awful about Wilwa (but I've been suspicious of Wilwarin since Day 2 so that's nothing new) and bad about Manwe as well.

Manwe will undoubtedly be lynched toDay - Aganzir and Legate already voted for him after all. I'll be back later but somewhat more distracted.

Nothing that I can think of, but I doubt Greenie is a wolf.
Mac's early accusation of Boro based on his defense of Pitch would be conveniently wolf-on-wolf though. And if Mac or skip is a wolf, their little row yesterday is worth taking a look at. It seems it sprang out of nowhere and they did their best to interpret everything the other said in a bad light (especially skip who was all of a sudden suspicious of Mac whom no one else had really suspected), and it made me raise my eyebrows. The thought crossed my mind they had agreed to do some wolf-on-wolfing so that nobody would start wondering about Mac's still being alive.

No I couldn't - Shasta would have seen me as the cobbler, not ordo.

Could be either. I tend to assume I don't die overnight even when I'm not a wolf.

Sacrifice him. Sacrifice Boro tomorrow. Let the remaining two try to sneak into the victory. (This is assuming Boro is a wolf. He will undoubtedly try to be serious and convince us of his innocent intentions now though.)

Oh and speaking of Boro. He isn't stupid, he knows he couldn't have fooled the wolves for long because he simply couldn't drop the right names in his posts. That's why I stopped playing the cobbler after day 1. I was hoping an impatient wolf would try to hint at me... however now that I think of it, the people I remember discussing the cobbler issue the most with were Pitch, Mac and skip. Now I wonder. :p

What exactly do you think makes you more suspicious than say Boro?

Hey now, I think you are being a tad harsh on yourself. I've seen sillier wolves. :p

(No, I'm not accusing Cailin. Not yet anyway.)

Have to say this though: I'm beginning to feel a bit better about this. Sure, the wolves are very much in the driving seat still, but if we nail a Män-wolf tonight, and a Boro-wolf tomorrow (or a who-ever wolf), I can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Then we'd even have margin of error, right?

I'm going to re-read yesterDay, see if I find anything interesting.

This point I don't quite understand. Could you explain?

So there goes Legate being a wolf. :rolleyes:

Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.

Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.

What I meant was if the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch anyone else.

I was thinking while writing, sorry if the phrasing is unclear - I was comparing Boro's cobbler show to mine that I dropped after one day. He too should have known it wasn't worth the effort because he didn't have the information he needed in order to make the wolves believe him. But he continued it for four days, being totally useless.

If the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch a wolf you mean. If an innocent votes for an innocent, or a couple of innocents vote for different wolves, the wolves can easily either hold their votes or retract - and win.

That's because I know how a Shasta-seer operates. He will always leave clues, but they would not be confusing. That is, he would not say "I feel good about Mac, but I hope I don't regret giving him a pass for sounding logical" if he had already dreamed you were innocent. If he dreamed you innocent, he would say something along the lines of how he defended Agan the entire game, or how he switched from heavily suspecting Legate, to "re-reading" him and finding him innocent.

Granted, the other time Shasta was the seer, as Agan said I was the cobbler. But nothing I said about how Shasta-seer would act was false. I just may have distorted and confused what he actually said to suit my cobbler-aims in that game.

So, now I wonder why all the hub-bub about he dreamed Manwe a wolf. I agree with Legate he wouldn't be so obvious as to move a dreamed wolf on red-alert. However, the situation yesterday was pretty dire, not must-lynch wolf mode, but with there still being 4 wolves, which means they would still get 2 kills. If he had dreamed of a Manwe wolf, I would think a Shasta-seer would convey this more clearly and finally put an end to the wolves double kills.

Instead, I think Shasta was acting more out of annoyance from starting to be suspected and in general how the game has gone. He wouldn't have sought to confuse, but I don't see why we should assume he dreamed of a wolf-Manwe simply because he started suspecting him.

I would like to remind each innocent in this village that we need to vote together today. Despite Boro's behaviour Mänwe is the best bet because as Legate said, it's better to lose because of misinterpreting the seer's last words than because of ignoring them.

In either case we lose, I would take winning because of interpretting the seer correctly thank you very much.

Let's look how he treated Legate, before dreaming of him.

Post 234. He starts suspecting Legate for flip flopping all over the place about Inzil and other reasons.

Post 252. He feels "moderately bad" about Inzil and Lottie. You could call this his orange-yellow zone, yes? He feels "no-nonsense bad" about Legate.

Post 274. he votes Lottie but says of Legate.

I remind you he has not dreamed of Legate at this point, but clearly was suspecting him, and even said he'd prefer voting Legate over Lottie. However, since there was no support for Legate he didn't. Then the next day, he comes in and suddenly switches to Legate looks innocent after "re-reading him."

So, he dreamed of Legate, yes? Do you not see the same exact pattern with how Shasta reacted to Manwe yesterday? Seriously, do you not see it, or are you just choosing to ignore it and hide behind "well we must listen to the seer even if we are misinterpretting him and lose."

Post 493. Reads into Manwe and finds him suspicious, saying he may be in the "red" category.

Post 502. States he really wants to vote for Manwe.

Come on Agan, you're better at analyzing and looking at the finer details than this. Shasta followed the same pattern with Manwe, as he did with Legate, before he had dreamed and known about Legate. So, why are you pleading for the innocents to follow the seers words even if we're misinterpretting it? Sure you wanted to wake the sleeping bear, I feel life in me again. :p

Likely my last words before I vote
 

I would like to remind each innocent in this village to come to their own conclusions. I would rather be lynched because you actually consider me innocent than lynched because I am "the best bet" or you were encouraged to "vote together" or I am to be "the most likely to be lynched therefore to vote anyone else would be a 'throwaway vote'" . Because I sincerely despise that term.

~~

Rikae, no it was not a joke and I did not offer it as an explanation.

~~

I might have voiced a misgiving or two had I thought it would be heard :p

Suffice to say, my guilt is being based upon interpretation of posts at its hardest. With my post and with Shasta's eye falling on me as it did and then his subsequent death, I have fallen most foul of the adage, "in the wrong place at the wrong time". So if folk wish to incriminate me because of it, so be it. But don't say I didn't warn you in the clearest of ways for you doom the others and hand victory to Melkor and his minions (who I will add have played very well, and are most deserving of a place at his side- the Deciever has been given a run for his money!).

Edit: I should listen to Boro and Cailins points since the start of the day, worth noting.

I think it would be hilarious if we lynched someone else than Mänwe and the wolves won. Shasta would be so upset about being beaten with his own strategy... as you well know, Boro!

If he hadn't dreamed of Mänwe, he would have found another way to suspect him than saying he's the first to enter his red category. Simple as that. End of discussion (on my part at least).

edit: xed wit Mänwe.
Was that a confession? :p

Hmm Boro, you do realise that the only time Shasta was the seer before this, he was lynched on Day 1 so you couldn't really claim you know how a Shasta-seer leaves his hints.

Oh, and might as well:

++ Manwe

Okay this became very focussed on early Day 4; Mac and Boro
 

First thing I noticed is this odd post by Boro (to Mac)

Now what makes it extra curious is that Mac hadn't even mentioned Boro that Day (although he accused and voted him the Day before. Mac did say this however:
There's something very forced about Boro's "attack" on Mac. I'm beginning to entertain the idea that Boro and Mac might be fellows doing some neat wolf-on-wolfing in preparation for a rainy day.

Disclaimer: I've not taken Day 1-3 into account; is there anything I have forgotten about that speaks for or against this notion?

It is Agan who calls Boro out:
Then Mac posts his long analysis (which was what made me suspicious of him). Here he casts guilt over everyone who had any part in trying to lynch Nessa or Inzil, though some more than others (Calin looked worst, closely followed by me; the Seer Shasta makes the top-three). I started to suspect him mostly because he seemed to take for granted that Nessa is innocent (how could he know that?) and because he made the whole thing seem like an objective, almost scientific, analysis, when it was in fact extremely subjective and built entirely on his personal assumptions or, as I feared, calculations.

Rikae also noticed the opposed views:
What was this btw, Rikae?
Me and Mac are exchanging some blows. Finally it sort of peters out with this...
I didn't reply to Mac then (too hectic, not enough time) but I will now. This bias of yours is what made me raise my eyebrows in the first place. Inzil is a known innocent. Nessa is not (not by me anyway).

Mac, you still haven't spelled out your case on me by the way?

Reading back I was also reminded of Rikae's song. Loved it! :)

If Manwe is not a wolf, we are all doomed.

Spreading the votes in this situation, especially considering the fact that (almost) Known Innocents Aganzir and Legate have chosen this path, could be fatal to us all.

++ Manwe

I am not convinced Boromir88 is a wolf (his behaviour was odd, but could be frustrated ordo and I agree, as must be obvious, with what he says today). I am also not convinced (why is anyone else?) that Nessa is innocent. I am not even fully convinced that Manwe is a wolf. Vamos a ver...

Oh and Manwe, if you are so innocent (and after toDay I doubt you are), please share some of your thoughts on the rest of the players. In other words: leave some trails. :p

Sorry - I always seem to be double posting.

Yeah, I'll be away toMorrow (Thursday/Friday) and it's doubtful if I can make an appearance then I'm afraid, though I'll promise to try best as I can. If nothing out of the ordinary happens I fully intend to vote Boro just so you know.
Maybe I was unclear as well. What I don't understand was this: what information could the real cobbler, as opposed to a fake cobbler, obtain to help him convince the wolves he was the cobbler and how would he do that?

Now for packing. Should at least check the thread out before DL but will probably not be that productive.

Edit: x'ed with 2 Cailin

Well at least his death will be more convenient for the wolves than any other wolf's (with the exception of Nessa if she's one) because the only person he talked about was ed...

Convenient references to the people he had suggested to the wolves the previous night: "I wonder why Lommy was killed when there are people who were considered innocent more widely, such as Shasta..." (Oh speaking of him, I had a dream during day 2 that Boro's first post on that day was something like "I don't think the cobbler sent his own name to the wolves, suggesting Shasta would have made more sense!" I almost posted it on the thread but thought it would've been inconsiderate towards the innocents who already thought I was the cobbler.) or simply "I think ed should die". The wolves would have been able to draw the connection.
(See I'm only ever good at this game when I get to be a baddie.)

It's of course possible Pitch's first suggestion was Nessa and that's why he went after her so strongly the following day.

Finally, I have a break to curl up on my couch with tea and just relax! I should be able to pop on here and there until DL.

I'll do this now, since things likely won't change:

++Manwe

Though I do agree that it seems very likely Shasta dreamt of a Manwe-wolf, there is this tiny part of me that is remembering the last (and only other) time Shasta was a Seer, where after he died we were convinced he had dreamt a wolf, but we were wrong. I do think this time is different though, because he's approached it in a different way then he did last time (with the red-green thing, it's far clearer, last time it was a vague suspicion), and I don't think he would do that same thing twice, but I'm still slightly paranoid. :rolleyes:

I will come back on in a bit and give my opinion on everyone else.

Well, here goes. If nothing else, we all need to vote together.

++Manwe

Well now obviously all those who voted for Manwe now can't possibly be innocent. This is so strange.

I guess Manwe's a wolf and his pack has decided no point to argue about the seer, let's fight another day.

Or he's innocent and the wolves are licking their chops at the smell of victory.

Either way my vote won't matter today, but on a matter of principle, I won't vote.

I've been relying too heavily on what others reported about Shasta, and I feel the need to look for myself.
Ok, so... Shasta's statements about everyone, by Day.

Day One:

(votes for Lottie without comment)

I see no dream-hints here at all. Thus we can assume his first dream was innocent, but that's all
this shows. Perhaps he dreamt of Kitanna? If he dreamt of an ordo, I would expect something more clear than this, unless he deemed clarity too dangerous to be worth the trouble at this early point. Going by his later list (Agan, Legate & me) either Agan or I could have been
the dream here.

Day Two

"I don't think Mac's been passive at all, actually - in my opinion he's been one of the louder voices."

(Of Boro)
(To Legate)

(Couple comments about Zil being suspicious).

(To Mac)


List

Feels good about Eomer, Agan, Cailin, me, Mac, Kitanna and Lommy. Of these, his statements on Eomer and I are similar and these and the one on Agan (and Kitanna, of course) are the strongest statements. Cailin & Lommy are "no warning signs" and Mac "I hope I'm not giving him a pass...".

His comments on ???'s Skip and Manwe suggest he might dream them.

Feels slightly bad about Boro, Pitch, Nessa, Wilwa. Comment about Pitch looks like future dream possibility, too.

Feels moderately bad about Lottie & Inzil.

"No-nonsense bad" about Legate.

(votes Lottie) Day 3:

"
(votes Inzil)

Clearly does point to a Legate-innocent dream.

Day 4:

List

Manwe tops his list to "look at today". Lots of people, however, are on that list... actually, everyone except Nessa, me, Legate and Agan is either "under the radar", "pinging my radar", and/or needs to be "looked at today". We four are the only ones he gives a clear opinion on. He also flipflops from his stance of the day before on Nessa without much reason.

List

As much discussed already, me, Agan and Legate in the "green" list. Green-yellow has Nessa at the top. Too ambiguous if he dreamt her, or does he just want to avoid making his change of opinion to obvious? Wilwa and Cailin here too, Skip, Ed & Mac yellow, Boro,
Greenie, Pitch & Manwe yellow-orange. Doesn't seem like a good idea for a seer to put a dreamed wolf in such a big group. As mentioned, no red.

Manwe-analysis

I don't agree with those who say this analysis looks like it's designed to back up his conclusion, but this:
does look meaningful. It would make sense as a way to slightly obscure/justify his dream, but how, then, to explain his change of opinion on
Nessa? Not because of Manwe being a wolf, certainly, as he voted for Ed - possibly just to prepare for a shift to going after Manwe.

Analysis of Cailin

Regarding his Agan/cobbler comments: she was generally considered cobblerish, and calling her innocentish would have made both her and Shasta
more conspicuous. I still think she's a dreamed innocent.


By itself, doesn't support the Mänwe dream - he did go after Legate pretty intensely. The best cases for a Mänwe-wolf I can see are the "red category" line and Mänwe's own behavior toDay, which is wolfish enough without any seer hints involved.

Defends his suspicions to Mänwe
(to Pitch)

Ok, didn't dream Nessa.

I know what he means, though I'm not suspected by Mac (and why not?)

(To Legate, on Cailin)

(to Legate)

(votes Skip) Yeah, likely dreams: Me/Agan, Agan/me, Legate, Mänwe. Not totally sure, but if Mänwe is innocent, he is also the wolfiest looking innocent under suspicion
I have ever seen, so:

++Mänwe

Even if Shasta didn't dream him, he's still a good bet for a wolf.

Also, I don't doubt the wolves saw the writing on the wall and decided to throw Manwe under the bus some time ago. I'm not going to put much stock on when people voted - after all, innocents have reason to be very cautious at this time, while wolves probably want to cut their losses and make themselves look as good as possible.

If I hadn't concluded she was a known innocent, in fact, I would have suspected Agan for being too quick on the trigger.

That's not to say Boro looks any more innocent to me because of his principles, either.

Aww Boro you're so sweet! I feel almost bad about probably having to lynch you tomorrow. :p

Yeah but he couldn't possibly put him down as red all of a sudden, that would've been a giveaway.

Yeah I would probably have done the same as a wolf. :p

My thoughts on everyone.

My guess at who the other 3 wolves are: Skip, Mac and either Greenie or Cailin. And yes, that is mostly on gut feeling. I feel very good about Legate, Nessa and Agan, and fairly good about Rikae.

Gotta go now. Hopefully this goes well!

x'ed with Agan

Mac & Boro didn't look wolfish, Mac made the most sense, Mac is objective. Nessa & skip are worrisome. That's basically what ed said about us. I wonder if her death was an attempt to frame an innocent skip or Nessa... at first glance it certainly points away from Mac - which might be the plan, or might not.

Still not buying into Manwe's wolvery. The ranger would still pose a problem, the wolves would know this, they wouldn't just give Manwe up so easily, and Manwe wouldn't bow out defeated. Not with the ranger still around.

Granted, Manwe hasn't looked so innocent today, even without Shasta's posts, but a wolf in Manwe's situation would attempt to get the Ranger out. Ok, maybe I shouldn't say this as a sure thing, but at least I would.

Shame you didn't think of that last Night, eh? ;)

Yes, I was thinking of that too, actually, even of the chance of Macwolf slipping while talking to a fellow Wolf: as in, writing e.g. "I will do it toMorrow." Hmm, wait, I should actually add "if you are alive", otherwise it might seem like I know he will be. - And then forgetting it about himself. Such things can happen. (Or of course the simpler variant of him being a Wolf alone.)

Obviously that, and by now we can see it (it was clear to me already before I saw the rest). However, possibly there was some confusion about procedure among the WWs, given how reluctantly the "everybody votes Manwe" thing started.

How optimistic of you (if you are innocent), however something in these words strikes me as false. As for not defending yourself, that's actually one of the things that I did not like about you, I mean, why not at least respond to people - at least to me, for instance, if I am a known innocent. Or something like that.

Quite so, quite so... And if you, for some mysterious and disgusting reason, are a Wolf and Mänwe isn't, thanks for putting the blame on me by effectively using my words as the reason for making the other players vote Mänwe :p

EDIT: x-ed since Rikae's horribly long post

Oh, really? :p Not all wolves are like you though.

Just for the sake of it (I'm sorry I'm advising the gifteds all the time!), I don't think the ranger should come out as long as we have known innocents alive unless she's in danger of being lynched or makes a successful save that isn't any of the current known innocents.

Aww actually I did that just because I didn't want to quote myself! (I said earlier that it's an offense to Shasta if we ignore Mänwe after how he talked of him.)

Yes but the option of fake revealing when there's still gifteds around is in the basic repetoire of any cornered wolf.

I just happen to fake reveal even when not backed into any corner. :rolleyes:

Although actually, I believe a Borowolf probably would have thought of it. I've seen his love of false-reveals in action before.
That means two of those I listed earlier have reasons against their wolvishness (Mac because of the Oz-kill). I recall a similar reason being given wrt... Greenie?... and Wilwa has done a couple innocentish-looking things. By process of elimination, then, our best bets may be Skip, Nessa & Cailin.
I'll have to weigh all of this (the idea of these as a pack, and the non-wolf evidence for the others) toMorrow, though. IF I'm still alive, that is. :p

Edit: X'd with Boro, amusingly enough.

And what other choice would they have now? To try to save him and get easily discerned by their votes? "So the Day ended with one Wolf being lynched, only three people of the whole village voted for saving him." Most interesting, just who might the remaining three Wolves be?

No, I think if Mänwe is a Wolf, then once the "train had left the station" (the Day started), it was too late.

Btw - I don't quite like Agan's overeagerness in her suspicions of Mänwe and then immediately Boro, sort of reminding me of the bloodthirsty part of the French revolution (one head - okay, next!), but I still hope her innocent.

Like I said, I am most suspicious of Mac, then possibly Boro, and with questionmarks wilwa/Cailín/skip.

Hmm, seems I am totally forgetting about Nessa, now it occured to me... but I am really wondering about her being just a victim of one big frame... or...

EDIT: x-ed since my last

Sounds overly complicated to me but I'm taking notes for future reference. ;)

---

Well, here goes.