Okay, if you guys don't want to lynch Nilp, I think

++McCaber

is a better option than Form.

In any case, remember that a tie means no lynch, and the dead may still provide an extra vote somewhere. Be careful.

Lommy's reasoning seems to come down to no more than this:

A stab in the dark isn't the worst idea ever--particularly if you weed out the Probable Innocents--but we're not even in a d Day 1 situation of having an idea of what odds that is. Mind you, it's not like we'll know one way or another unless the game comes to a sudden end overNight.

My own preference right now is the vote for Eomer, on the grounds of not being an Innocent and seeming the most suspicious by a slight margin. My main problem with him is along the lines of something Nilp said earlier today:

Voting record is the fallback for discerning furriness in a regular game and in the absence of anything else, I'll stick with it here.

Boro also had some concern about him:

For what it's worth, I can see Eomer being the sort to ignore the sort of advice Boro is quoting of Mith.


Mind you, Nilp raised the same concern about himself--self-deprecating or not, he has a point:



X-ed with Sally, Lommy, Eomer, and Lommy.

Here's a wacky notion. We recall the way Lottie jumped at Morm when he jumped at me for my thoughts on Rune. It occurred to me as I was reading through some of her posts that she might have been setting up for some solid wolf-on-wolf with that exchange. I don't have time to properly cite posts and such, alas, but I've seen Lottie pull some conniving moves, and the way she defended me and began suspecting Morm seems rather wolfy to me. That combined with my own general uneasiness with Morm this game makes him pretty high on my suspect list.

Speaking of which, I'll make that in a moment.


x'd since my last

While it's been great to be back on the Downs in general, it's been very exciting to be back in werewolf. With the changes in life since my WW prime I have less time to do deep analysis. With that said I have read every word at least once. I think through the years I've developed a better sense of people and how to read them. So I may not do the analysis in writing but rather the body of work is stored in my mind. It comes in general feelings and impressions. Hey I was right about Mac on Day 1! It's certainly not fool proof but it's all I have time to offer.

With that said both Nilp and Eomer haven't been sitting right for some time now. Form to a lesser degree but much more so i the last few posts. I will likely vote Nilp.

Form, Nerwen asked us not to vote Eomer toDay. If you trust her, you should vote either Nilp, McCaber, Morm, Kath, Mith or yourself.

Good night, folks, it's 3.15 am in Finland!

Fairly wacky indeed. I don't see the benefit of wolves in the same pack going after each other in this game, especially so early. Remember at this stage we didn't have any known wolves so it doesn't make sense to me. It wasn't until this point that Lottie began to be suspicious to many. Again, why the risk of wolf on wolf. I think it was an attempt on her part to cast doubt on me, it seems to be working posthumously. This certainly doesn't acquit me of guilt but I cannot see that a wolf one wolf interaction would have occurred so early on.

Are you guys honestly not getting what Nerwen was telling us today? :confused:

On Nilp

#122 - Nilp's first post of the game that references him being suspicious of anyone, calling out Mac for
It's interesting to me that Mac is the first person Nilp elects to go after, given what we (think we) know about Mac now. It's hard to say - I certainly wouldn't put it past Nilp to suspect his packmate, but the feel of the suspicion here (based as it is on information) feels genuine. Of course, we have two wolfpacks, so it being a genuine suspicion doesn't in and of itself absolve Nilp of wolfery... bah. Moving on.

#210 - Nilp's first list. There's a bit of a sameness to this list, honestly, between people he's neutral (?) on and people he has no read on. The only definitive people he might suspect here, as far as I can tell, are -

Agan and Lommy had been talked about for most of the latter part of the day, as I recall. As far as Nog goes, I think this might be a teensy bit of misrepresentation. Nog surely wasn't shy about pointing out the possible pitfalls of a plan (that's a lot of p's) to derive information from the dead thread, but I don't know if I'd go so far as to say he was arguing against doing it entirely.


Day 2:

#255 - Nilp is less certain that Nog was evil (possibly just stubborn). Also, Agan might exonerated on the grounds that

#377 - Nilp's second list. The only person he's suspicious of is Agan. Again, Agan was pretty much the lynch target du jour all day long - Nilp does have this to say regarding his own reason for voting her, however;

Still, I find it a tad strange how seemingly detached he is.



I'll cut this short and post it so people can start reading - it's only 2 hours till deadline and people have probably been posting while I've been doing this, so I'll need to read that, too...

An(other) incredibly brief list
 

Fishy
Morm - For general uneasiness and the (I believe false) rivalry between himself and Wolflote
Mith - I feel an innocent Mith would be less condescending and more willing to listen to others' ideas, but as it is, she immediately refused to take part in the Day 1 discussion of votes and has reacted to various posts (my reveal, for instance) in a way that makes it seem like she's not actually invested in the village's best interest
Kath - For voting Form both Day 1 and toDay when, at least toDay, there were better options
Shasta - For no reason other than I have no idea what he is and therefore he must be evil ;)

Confused
Boro - My prince says he has an uncomfortable tickle, and I'm willing to believe he killed Lal, but it's a matter of whether the itch is his gift or his fur (a decision I can't make toDay)
Nilp - The general read is innocent, but also oddly blank, as if there's not much invested for him in this game (hence leaning innocent, as I feel a Wolfaurion would play more high stakes and less silliness)
Eomer - Holding off toDay at Nerwen's request, and don't really have a read anyway
Lommy - She feels innocent and guilty to me in shifts, which means I need to take time to read through her posts again and make up my flipping mind
Form - He clearly deserves a closer read as well, but I find him rather innocent at the moment

Innocent
McCaber - As previously stated, he feels quite innocent to me (perhaps because there's no cobble for him to McCobbler with this game :p)
Nerwen - Because reasons
Sally - Because reasons


x'd like a way bunch or something

I saw that she didn't put him on her list, but unless I missed something (possible), she had no reason beyond this post:

Granted, Nerwen could be in possession of information she hasn't revealed, but my understanding was that she had been given the names of two Wolves--not the roles of everyone in the village. And while I'm willing to assume that the reception of this message means she's an innocent, I don't see how it indicates that her guesses are necessarily better than the rest of ours--so I continue to think Eomer suspicious.

That said, if the village prefers to follow the lead of a known innocent, I understand that motivation--I just don't see how it removes a name completely from contention.

I also have to leave in about ten minutes. I *might* be able to check the Downs, but it's unlikely. I'll try to sneak in a vote, at the least (even if it ends up being a vote purely for the purposes of triggering the dead's information).


x'd with Form

All right, Sally, that seems pretty helpful.

Form, Nerwen wasn't the special role. Boro is. Think about it. Either your act is truly stupendous, or you must be innocent.

On Nilp, Continued


#552 - Nilp's third list.

Firefoot being there is a given after the events of the previous several hours. He also mentions being suspicious of Eomer, McCaber, and myself (I'm assuming, here, that that's what being in that category means) but I'm having trouble figuring out what the reasons are - as far as I can tell, he's suspicious of McCaber and I for being narrowly focused, and Eomer for slight hypocrisy?

#636 - vote analysis post. While there's not a lot regarding suspicions from Nilp here, he does offhandedly mention -

It bothers me a bit that Nilp won't actually come out and say that he's suspicious of Eomer. This feels more like he's throwing the idea out to see if anyone will bite.


Summary - Almost everything Nilp has said thus far has been about the mechanics of the game (roles, the dead thread, plans for getting information, et cetera). I'm not sure that he's suspicious of anyone (except perhaps Eomer), and I do think it's worth noting that Nilp was on both the Nog and Agan wagons just as much as Eomer was, first day self-vote notwithstanding. Or at least I couldn't find anyone Nilp suspected on Day 1 more than Nog.

I haven't said Nerwen is the special role. As far as I know, though, Boro's revelation did not disprove that she'd received the PMs she says she received. What is it I am missing here?

Good posts, Shasta, and with McCaber and now Form (for different reasons) slipping down my suspicion list, I have no hesitation in thinking about lynching Nilp today.

Kath and Mith are obviously very hard to read.

Lommy called me 'kawaii'. I don't know how to respond to that.

Anyway, do we still have enough votes to lynch me? If some people *cough* are being audacious, I might as well be, even though I'm a helpless and lonely innocent party member.

Are we SURE this game doesn't have a Cobbler? Because at this stage in the game, that's the attitude I'd expect of a Cobbler protecting Wolves.


Since we don't (right? We don't?)--I don't know what to make of this except a wolf trying to plea-bargain his way out. Perhaps Nilp's pack can survive a loss?

Or he's an ordo... I'll grant he feels less innocent to me now, but I'd still rather lynch Eomer or--if we want to go Lommy-style and stab in the dark, I'd rather go McCaber than Nilp. At least Nilp's entertaining.

I can't believe you missed the bigger idea I was throwing out--that based on the DAY 2 vote, I look suspicious. :Merisu:

Now, to see if anyone will bite on that.

Well... if you're trying to catch Wolves, you're barking up the wrong tree by lynching me, but I assure you you're not lynching a Gifted.

But seriously, normally I'd refute any accusation of me with information. I have very little right now (and even that incriminates me).

Worst case scenario, 6 wolves + 6 villagers now, you lynch me, we lose.

Mid case scenario, the Gifted get to do Gifted things for one more NIGHT.

Best case scenario... well, if you lynch me, the party is not winning the game toDAY. Maybe toNIGHT, though?

_____

Also, DEAD PEOPLE, I echo the other's agreement and would ask you to follow Lommy-chan's list. (Just don't mind the name 'Lottie' on the second line.)

I feel like Bilbo among the Trolls just now. I can at least hope that the wolves are (or wolf is) being befuddled by all this - and it might even give us a day extra with our superiors.

++NILPAURION FELAGUND

I'd apologise, cuz, but I know it's what you'd want. :p Also, this is how I signed up in the admin thread.

Oh, goodness gracious. :rolleyes:

++Nilp

Best I have to go on, at the moment (although I confess his current attitude is making me second guess myself.)

Kath -> Form
Lommy -> McCaber
Eomer -> Nilp
Shashta -> Nilp 2

Out of those 3 Nilp is my top then Form, despite the fact I will miss the gifs he keeps posting.

x'ed Shasta, updated list

Starting a vote tally, because it's getting to be bedtime and I don't want to just throw away my vote.

Kath -> Formendacil
Thinlómien -> McCaber
Eomer -> Nilp


And, uh, that's it...

None of these options look great to me. Nilp is raising my suspicions, but the thrashings of a wolf accruing lynch votes look a lot like an Ordo trying to stave off village defeat. McCaber raises my suspicions by his quietness, but every WW game ever has a lurker who turns out to be innocent.

I still like Eomer, but there's no point turning this into a FOUR-way race.


X-ed since Eomer's vote. Nilp is now up by one.

A revelation.
 

Oh, I forgot one way to stave off accusations in this village.

I could reveal myself as a Gifted. No one would know, except the Gifted themselves. And if that Gifted is already Dead (and you wouldn't know that), then I could have you dancing in the palm of my hands. And even if they're alive, they'd have to reveal themselves to refute me, exposing them to all sorts of NIGHT problems.

...

...

...But no, I'm not doing that.

Hope you're still alive, real Gifted people. This one's for you.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

If you trust our two reveals (Boro doesn't seem to be around) then don't vote me or McCaber. Lommy voted McCaber but obviously before Sally got here.

I mean, of the options that are currently available, I guess I find Nilp the most....ridiculous, basically?

Any thoughts on Mith or Kath? More for tomorrow, really...

I don't know what to make of Nilp's self vote. It makes me almost want to believe him but if I feel that way I'm sure others do; so is it a way of self-preservation?

I still don't get it. I've missed some post where our Known Innocents said "these people aren't evil" and I'm clearly failing to understand how they would KNOW that. At this point I'd almost rather try to tie the lynching again since killing an innocent is likely to be more fatal than successfully killing a would would be helpful... but I don't see that going anywhere and now is the time for me to vote--before I fall asleep at the computer.

Apparently McCaber is out and Eomer is out... and while suspicious Nilp is the only currently-voted candidate left. The votes stand:

Kath -> Form
Lommy -> McCaber
Eomer -> Nilp
Shasta -> Nilp 2
Nilp -> Nilp 3

That's 5 votes... my vote makes 6... and Nerwen at least may not be timezone-appropriate before the deadline.

++mormegil

I don't really know if he's guilty--I'm barely on the cusp of thinking he is, but he isn't McCaber, he isn't Eomer, he isn't Nilp, and he isn't me--and a couple of people have wondered about him, so maybe I'm not off my rocker in wondering.

Suspicious and worryingly curious respectively. I'd be up for lynching Mith, I suppose? I don't know. I'm not into widening the options unless we can make it count.

++Form

Just got in and caught up. His posts look the sketchiest today.

May I suggest that it won't accomplish very much for the dead to give a vote to Lottie?

Missed that. She is doubled up with you so either way.

Now I'm just going to skim the thread before voting. One thing I'd like to suggest is that toMorrow we try to set up a way of asking about Living players? What do you think?

Ach, Lommy was sleepy when she made that list. It won't affect anything. ;)

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

++Nilp

I think he has bothered me for a while. His self vote almost changed my mind.

++Nilp

I can't deny my friends their dreams. ;)

Okay, it is now Mr Felagund regardless.

++Nilp
x'd with Sally.

Really must improve: literacy.
 

Apparently, my worst-case scenario is a product of my illiterate (and innumerate) imagination.

I feel much better about this. :)