Last time I looked you were the fool, not the baker... :p

I'm also not the village thief, but I stole a pair of your knives. :p

You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.

Or the baker, or the candlestick maker. Not that we have one of those, but still. He was a sweet old man, the candlestick maker. Always used to take out a book a week, brought them back like clockwork he did. Granted they were a bit singed sometimes but I suppose that can't be helped, bless him. Besides, I'm a bit of a pyro. As long as it's not books being burned, of course.



*looks at time, flails* Going back to bed now I think. Either that or reading. :Merisu:

It doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, so long as it can't catch me. ;)

Actually, the Ranger wouldn't have to reveal. He would just go along with the plan and we would all just have to hope we don't lynch him or that they don't get killed by the wolves. Then, if the Ranger does die, if it was a Night where they were protecting the Seer then we'd have atleast one more Night out of the Seer and can get all of their dreams (even the innocent ones) and if the Ranger dies on a Night when the village has protected the Seer then we can get them to reveal then. There's always the possibility, that the Seer could die toNight. 19 players (since we're gonna lynch someone) - 4 wolves = 15, 2 kills, so like a 1 in 8 chance (if I can do math properly) of anyone dying. That's actually not very small.

Anyway, I can understand how people would object to this, because it is a crazy idea. But really if anyone is scared of the Ranger dying before we can get many protects for the Seer (thus the Seer revealing for nothing), then you should also be scared of the Seer dying before we can get any of their dreams. The chance of either of them being killed is the same. So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

So those are my thoughts. I'm only going to be around for about an hour, cause I have to go to work. I have an unexpected order in today, so I will be there 2 hours longer then expected, which means I'll probably only be here for the last hour of the Day. Was really hoping more had been said while I slept....

^ wilwa clarifying my haiku previous.

Well, that's all for me now. See you tomorrow--or not. ;)

Hey! Where is everyone? I'm so bored.

Haha :rolleyes:

x'ed oh, Nilp! but now you're gone....

Which is why I said it might be worth doing a bit later. In fact, it might be worth it as soon as the Seer dreams a wolf (though it's up to him). At the moment we'd probably only get the name of a single innocent– who would then be killed.

EDIT:E'd since Wilwa at #46.

Well, maths aside, because just by maths, the percentage of everybody dying is rather high, but then of course, it's not the way it works.

Anyway - "putting it off toooo long" - I guess that's something that won't happen, because in most games the Seer reveals on let's say Day 3 at most, either knowing already at least one Wolf (and then we can go on with the plan mentioned above) or in some more dramatic cases, the Seer becomes revealed by the fact that he/she dies or is about to be lynched or something as nice as that.

Anyway, good point about the Ranger - I actually didn't think of it, I was operating with the idea that the Ranger would have to cooperate with the others (and stuff like "I can't protect the Seer toNight, I did it already last Night" - but thinking of it, it's unlikely that it would happen on the first Night after the Seer's revelation and also, even if it did, would the Wolves dare to risk attacking the Seer even though there'd be a strong chance of him/her being protected? (of course the Ranger's not going to announce that to anybody) ...well, maybe with two kills per night, they still might...), but of course, if the Seer just announced "okay, wherever you are, Ranger, you protect me toNight and the Night Guard will do so the night after", it's okay. Of course, it's just on the hope that the Wolves don't by chance or by deduction target the Ranger. But it's true that it's a difference from revealing his/her identity, as they would just have to rely on good luck in that case.

Still, I am not so keen on revealing the Seer so early. If he or she had two Wolves by toMorrow, well maybe then, but in the average cases, not really sure. The main problem anyway would be this confusion which is likely to come if somebody reveals. Even with the Ranger point of wilwa's in mind, if we have any counter-reveal, there'll be this "I am the Seer!" - "No! I am the Seer!" - and now choose whom you want to protect and when... although... if we still had the Ranger and agreed unisono on whom we want to Night-Guard (the village would have to agree), we could as well protect both of them and take turns in that. But... well. Okay, I dislike discussing the subject too deeply anyway. It's so easily exploitable.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Nerwen - eeeexactly the same thoughts! Yea, good.

Especially because there are 4, and getting that first one gone is super important this game. So I think this could be something everyone can be more ok with, instead of getting the Seer out there without any really valuable info. It's really all up to the Seer for when their info becomes worth the risk.

And for fun: 20 players - our lynch choice - the seer = 18, so 4 in 18 which makes it so the seer has a 2 in 9 chance of dreaming a wolf (again, if my math is right). Which actually, is not so bad, almost a one in three.

x'ed with Legate, will read that post and respond now

Well, with counter reveals for Seers it's usually easier then it is for the other two gifteds. They'll have a few dreams by then, so if they reveal what they know to that point (even if it's just innocents), then it should be easier to deduce who's lying and who's not, really depending on what sort of info they provide. But yes, the back and forth between the two would work, and eventually the fake seer would slip up and there we have it.

My brain is starting to hurt. I'm thinking myself in circles with all these hypotheticals. :rolleyes: I need something else to discuss....

Who wants a nice pint of ale??? :smokin::p

Me. I guess I have also enough for now.

Speaking of that, miss barmaid, haven't you thought of getting married? A fair girl of your age could start thinking about it... I could surely find you a good rich husband, only for a small fee I could arrange it...

Rich??? Sounds lovely! Find me a rich husband and he can pay you the small fee. ;)

Well, it's been delightful but I must leave you all. I'll be back for the last hour before DL.

I see the topic of discussion remains on Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation regarding the seer revealing. That's not surprising. Though I had hoped for a little more discussion, maybe a big red flag pointing to one of the villagers, declaring him/her "WOLF" in big letters.

However, that hasn't happened and I need to vote in the next twenty minutes. I get off work right at the deadline and there is no guarantee I can make it home at lunch to contribute.

I'm going back to ponder, but I'm thinking the chances of a random vote today are likely.

I went back and read Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation (and all posts that responded early on to it). Since this is the highlight right now it seems like a logical place to look for baddies. However, time is short for me so I'll make a few points quick and come home on my lunch break to finish any thoughts.

Mnemo is quick to declare this route this easiest, life in WW is never easy though. It doesn't feel wolfish, not so early, but that doesn't absolve Mnemo.
In answering my query on the idea Mnemo states that the seer has the choice to reveal. Another innocent move, but makes me wonder about Mnemo. However, nothing Mnemo has said screams wolf to me. I want to watch Mnemo over the next few days, but I have a feeling a wolf wolf wouldn't make a suggestion for a reveal so early, but would rather encourage the idea and thrive on any and all confusion.

I will return in a few hours to make a quick statement about Wilwa's role with Mnemo's suggestion and then a vote.

I don't like the speculation about the seer revealing and us and the ranger protecting him/her nonstop. As several people have said, the plan is not faultless. Secondly, if we did, it would feel unfair for the wolves to me. Sort of like cheating. (Yes, and it's me Lommy-the-ever-ordo-and-always-on-the village's-side who's saying this.) From my point of view, it would be simpler, safer and fairer not to do that (from the beginning that is - once the seer comes out it would be stupid not to do it).

Anyhow, I don't know if I should be worried because this talk has been going on for so long. Everybody seems to agree we won't do it now, so why keep talking about it? I admit I haven't done anything else yet either, but the village's single-mindedness is a bit troubling. And I would also warn of making the hasty and probably biased conclusion that Mnemo who made the original suggestion (which is risky and dominating the discussion and all that jazz) is a wolf. I think what she said would've been an ideal piece of cobblery, but more ordoish than wolvish.

I should be going more or less now, and I'm afraid I won't have much of a chance to contribute today. I still have work, agreed to see someone nice and would like to go to sleep early. But I'll be back at least for a while. I'll leave the responsibility of moving on to other discussions to you others, and leave with a special note - I hate random votes (surprise ;)) and although she often uses them, Kitanna started looking mighty suspicious in my eyes as soon as she promised to make one. What a perfect way for a wolf to slip from the spot. I wonder if you're planning to give the guard vote at random too? Would make just about as much sense... :rolleyes: (sorry Kit, nothing personal but I never ever got the point of random voting, as you probably have noticed in all our games together...)


edit: xed with Kittles

-------------------
|........................|
|......WOLF!!!......|
|........................|
-------------------

EDIT: clumsy fingers

^ Dunno if painting that red would be legal and all (see glossary: HIGHLIGHTING) so I won't, but it's a pretty flag, ain't it?

Lynch me pl0x.

(All right, seriously, I'll be gone now, just stole comp time while the parents are out watching soaps.)

*Jumps and grabs the nearest pitchfork.* Where? Where!!!
*Realises that it's just the village fool and calms down again.*
Yes, yes, wolves, son, wolves. There are lots of them.

...Anyway, as for other things. I only have to note that I am actually scared how exactly Lommy's thoughts reflect mine. From the beginning points, also those about "unfairness" (I was more like wondering if the Mod should not have limited this Night Guarding stuff a bit more limited rule-wise, though after thinking about it a bit - what I've been doing through writing all these posts - maybe it's not TOO strong, but still maybe a bit of a disbalance, but who knows), through the idea that if anything, Mnemo could be a possible Cobbler, up to the somewhat discomforted way of Kit's post (you are not going to be around, Kit? I don't think you didn't say anything about it on the admin thread? That's why it surprised me.)

When we are already at it, I also feel quite good about Nerwen this far, and I am not entirely sure about wilwa, maybe mainly because of the continuous pursuit of the revealing idea, though it's not anything too definite (mainly as she put that down in the end herself, but that could have been as well mere resignation). Anyway, I'm looking forward to see also others posting... hopefully not only in the last part of the Day or anything.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp

There are no cobblers.

Oh, c'mon, Legate, let's play to win, and debate fairness later, after we have four wolf heads. :smokin:

*comes into the market square and ambles around, listening to the discussion and trying to catch up with what has gone before*

Hey! Good to know, but you were originally planning some, were you, or did I just make it up? *checks the rules* Because I was under the impression that there was supposed to be one according to the rules...

I'm tempted to just repeat "There are no cobblers", but maybe that would be taking it too far...

They were never actually mentioned under roles, but I had put it under possible seer dreams by mistake at first, a mistake that I got rid of as soon as I realised.


And from now on, go to the Admin Thread for such questions.

Oh pig loins! All the suspicion you acquire every single time, has made you much more cool and calm. I should have expected it.

I wouldn't say that. Mnemo's has gotten several people talking about a subject, there's information there, now let's look through it. ;) There are still too many quiet villagers, but hey there's been a lot of commenting on Mnemo's plan.

Since she was the originator, I don't see how proposing a controversial idea, while getting lots of comments on it makes someone suspicious. We've been given about as good as info as we can expect to get on Day 1, courtesy of Mnemo. Now look through it and interpret it, because it's not posts and posts about pigs, fools, and feminine wiles.

For the time being, I see Mnemo as kind of the aunt you want to keep at arm's length. She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now.

By the way, I wouldn't mind trying her plan once the wolves are down to 1 kill. Two kills complicates everything, and could really make a mess of things, but if one wolf be gone, well it may just be worth it. Maybe it's just me, but the fact is sometimes as a wolf you have to do some real crazy stuff to win, it's no cake walk that's for sure. I think at times we have to do the same, and try out something that seems a little "out there." It could fail stupendously, but it could give us a brilliant and worthy win.

Where?! Where's the dirty scoundrels?! *shoves glasses up farther on nose and brandishes a ruler* Let me at them!!!!

Only if they lynch me too. I thought you were dead once and it nearly killed me. I could not bear it if you died again, etc. *waits for Boro to step in*


In other news, I'm really tired. Got back from my aunt's and now it's laundry and then nap time, so I'll likely be around later in the Evening.

Incidentally, I don't think Mnemo's suggestion is necessarily evil, I just think it's A: too good to be true and B: a bit too cheap for my liking. If at some point the seer does have to reveal for whatever reason it's a good plan but I like to keep the gifteds hidden as long as possible.


Mum's the word. Or would be, if mine was here at the moment. Oh well.

Good afternoon everybody! Seems I haven't missed that much...
As for Mnemo's suggestion, it had to come up, and why not rather sooner than later? It makes as good a starting point as any. The idea must have occurred to anybody who has given the words of our Mayor some thought (it surely did to me this morning while I was alone, working on the decorated lintel Nogrod commissioned for his mansion). The wolves probably saw it coming as well, but I don't think they'd bring it up themselves; anyway, I find it hard to suspect, much less convict anybody on no more evidence than their position in this debate - there may well be one or more wolves arguing for either side, in order to confuse us.
The Seer, of course, will do as the Seer sees fit, but I think it would be wise for them to reveal if they are either

• able to name a wolf (catching the first wolf early is crucial, as it will halve the Night-kills); or
• in danger of being lynched by mischance. (A cousin of mine told me this happened in his village not so long ago, when their inexperienced visionary got himself lynched after only one dream; predictably, the wolves triumphed. We want to avoid that!)

Some more thoughts to follow soon, but I've got to wet my throat first. That Chetwood Stout of Inzil's sounds promising...

Legate:

Why would the Ranger need to reveal?

EDIT: Heh. This is exactly what happens when you don't realize there's a second page.

At the last possible moment actually. I hadn't had time to check the 'Downs until it was basically too late but as Eönwë was in need of one more player I got in... :)

So...

I'm quite fascinated with this discussion about making a drastic move on Day1 - both in the sense that we should actually explore it, and in a sense Boro talked of it being much more better stuff to read on Day1 than the nonsensical banter.

As I see it, we have a possibility of generating an unlimited protection to our seer - as long as our ranger is alive.

So the first question should be, how long do we think our ranger can stay hidden and alive, and does is match the risk the seer takes by revealing? (Which of course is up to the seer as many have commented already)

But the second question - no lesser than the first - would be, are we willing to take the risk that the wolves will probably counter-reveal (or reveal first leaving our seer to do the countering)?

Now if we had two competing claims we'd have a 50-50 chance of getting it right and then protect the seer until the ranger is blown off. If we missed it by lynching the seer first we'd get a wolf the next Day for sure. With no cobbler around that should be self-evident.

So do we wish to risk exchanging the seer to one wolf for getting this protection-rotation going until the ranger is killed? In a sense that might be worth trying as seer's seldom catch multiple wolves (unless Boro is the seer when he will deliver us all four after the first four Nights on a silver platter :D).

But there could be another way to do it as well. If / when we had two competing claims for the seer we could protect them both during the Nights; ranger protecting the one and the village the other - and changing turns every Night. Then on Day3 or 4, depending on the general situation, we might require them to produce lists of their dreams and with the experience with them for a few Days already we might even be able to make a more educated guess between them than just 50-50. Also we would then have a list of four at best from the real seer to help us after s/he's gone.

So let's actually think about it. As Boro said, we should be ready to try things out - at least on the level of speculation I might add.

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Second: Lommy, my dear, you are commenting on said plan. So don't complain about the fact that people are still talking about it. Fact is, people are filtering into this village one by one today and they may have thoughts about the matter that haven't been brought up yet.

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

Well, I see there's been a deal of discussion by many, though precious little to aid me in my decisions thus far.
What's that, Boro? Pig loins? Not just now. But thank you anyway.
Though folks are thinking some of what strikes them as suspicious, which is good, I haven't seen much, if any, consideration of to whom the Guards should be assigned tonight, which is almost as important.
I'm thinking Nerwen perhaps. Music hath charms...etc.

x/d with Nog and Mnemo

Okay, so let me go through it. Whom do we have there:

A Little Green- for some reason, she made me wonder with her mid-day chat, as I thought her intention was to have just some chat, but then she asks Nilp "why did you vote yourself?" which looked like a serious question, although completely vain by nature (knowing Nilp). But nothing much more to go on with.
alonariel- the village blacksmith-not around and won't be according to the admin thread, okay, that puts her out of the stuff for toDay.
Boromir88- hmph, well, somehow, his flip-floppish ending makes me uneasy (sort of defending Mnemo and saying this "She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now", which is basically the typical "either way the wind goes, I may or may not suspect her"), but that's not enough to vote him, of course. But let's see what happens.
Brinniel- nothing particular to go on with.
Hakon- not appeared yet, if I am not mistaken
Inziladun-
Kitanna- sudden appearance and disappearance, nothing more.
McCaber- not been around yet?
Mnemosyne- enough's been discussed about the Seer-talk; personally, I don't think I will vote her toDay (for neither lynch nor protection), maybe further Days will clear it up better.
Nerwen- keeps to the point and makes sense. I am thinking about her as a possible Night-Guard vote today.
Nessa Telrunya- nothing particular to go with
Nienna- same as above
Nilpaurion Felagund- Nilp is just Nilp, obviously nothing to do with him on Day 1.
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois hasn't shown himself yet
Pitchwife- more or less lurking on the edge, but nothing for or against this far.
satansaloser2005- apart from a very few random comments, nothing special
Shastanis Althreduin- nothing
Thinlómien- generally positive impact. I may also think of voting her for protection toDay, also maybe it would be more interesting than Nerwen in order to check, because if she perchance were a Wolf (somehow it seems more likely than in Nerwen's case), protecting her might also hinder the Wolves, or reveal something, or whatnot.
wilwarin538- like I said above, I am a bit wondering about her persistent persuasion of the subject of Seer's revelation, but then again, like I said, she ended it herself with good measure. I might vote her, for one, but that's no strong case - of course - Day 1, she is probably the "best" I have now (and that doesn't mean a lot).

EDIT: x-ed since Mnemo and I realised I was so thinking about Inzil that I haven't filled in the box. I will do it in my further post as I also read the crossposts, and may add something on their posters too.

Nog, I like your style (i.e., keep 'em both alive).

Well I'm all for doing things the 'old-fashioned' way. If we just let the seer hand us the game there's no fun in it. I say we try it on our own for a while and if the seer thinks they've enough information to help us then fine. (Besides, if the seer tells us their dreams there'd quickly be too many people to cover. Unless of course they only told us their dream if it was a wolf.) Basically it's just not my style. If the rest of the village wants it I shan't complain (much:rolleyes:) but I'd rather do this the hard way, if you will. (See last game, where I didn't want to use the surveys to do our detective work for us.)


You do have a point there, and I'll give it to you. If the wolves get the gifteds right off, though, they can have it. (Not that I'd want them to get the gifteds, but you get my point. If the wolves are that good they deserve the kill.) If the seer thinks they're in danger (or ranger, for that matter, although that's a slightly different matter) then by all means we'll institute your plan. I just think that putting the gifteds out in the open right off isn't the best plan, that's all.

*shrugs* I might be happy to try it later. I just don't think right now's the time to do it. And have a good afternoon! :)


And with that I must dash myself. I'll be back after I've had a nap, lunch, and a shower, probably in that order. See you later in the Day! :D


EDIT: x'd with Dun Dun Dun, a chicken Legate, and....oh, look, I found Mnemo too! (Sorry, feeling really silly today)

Okay, all in all, as for that Seer matter - I certainly think we should not do it now anymore. In my opinion, the best would be really to do it only when the Seer has at least some known Wolf, though Mr. Nog's suggestion is not that bad itself either (but my reasons for saying this and trying to be rather careful are because I can well imagine a Seer who can dream four consequent Nights only about innocents, of whom half are killed during that time - something like that happened to a great-grandfather of mine once upon a time). Well, the Seer will choose himself/herself anyway. And as for the protection of both eventual Seers, if two revealed themselves, may I point out that I mentioned the same possibility already a long time ago ;)

Otherwise: To finish my thoughts - Inziladun, I feel it hard to say anything definite, I guess I'll probably move him to the "no idea" cathegory for now. Nogrod, since he posted now, seems his typical reasonable and "gambling" (or how to call that... maybe "adventurous" would sound more proper) self. Neither are likely to get my vote for either of the funny activities our village has to offer.

Ooh, speaking of that, Mister Nogrod... didn't you, perchance, give a thought to finding yourself some nice company for your retirement? I mean, you have plenty of time on your hands, what about finding yourself a charming young girl to keep you company in your lonely days? Just for a small fee I could look around and find you a lovely young lady, what says you...

Silly, the seer would not be handing us the game. Unless s/he caught a wolf we would still be left to our own consciences when voting, and the Ranger would not last forever under this plan. All it does is give the village a tactical advantage.

Currently debating whether to guard Boro, Legate, or Nog. They're all reasonable people, though they're heckawolves, plus they make the day more interesting. I'd hate to lose any of them Night One, until I have more information (since information they will leave) to go off of.

I'm already 90% sure of my lynch pick.