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EDIT: Xd with Legate |
Thoughts on those who have posted so far:
Gal55 - content-free first post, can be anything. Zil - mostly commenting, reasonable points, basically his standard inscrutable self; defends Menel against me (which I actually like). Lommy - sick, therefore excused. Menel - has been a bit Captain Obvious and theoretical up to now, but his elaboration on his first post is sound enough, and his reaction to me doesn't strike me as particularly wolvish. Anyway, like Legate said, I'd need a good reason to vote him D1 in his first game in ages. Legate - posting behaviour similar to Zil, reasonable stuff, wishy-washy as far as suspicions go (which is nothing new), except he seems to feel good about Kath. Kath - "interested and active", yes, and I find no fault in wanting to discuss the new and improved(TM) cobbler, but the piece from her last post I paraphrased seems to me to be thinking too much from the perspective of the wolves. Agan - don't trust her farther than I can throw her on general principle, but there's nothing especially alerting yet, except maybe the bit about me being the cobbler, where I'm not sure whether she was teasing me, suspecting me or hinting at me (probably not the latter, too obvious). - The above was written before everybody started talking, especially before Gal accused Menel, which is exactly the sort of latching-on I hoped to provoke by poking at him (and yes, Menel, I think we've all got what your point was by now). And look, Nog is doing it too, casting some doubt but not actually committing to anything. I don't approve. As for his point about Zil, I'll need that explained to me, because I don't really get what he's trying to say. Btw, I have to vote within the next half hour or so, DL being in the middle of my workday. I could imagine voting Kath for that wolf-think quote, but we'll see. |
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Just asking before you decide to make the lack of committed cases reason to vote... I mean you don't have twelve votes but just one... PS. I'm going to sleep as well pretty soon, but will still participate and vote later... |
Good morning everybody....or is it afternoon? This weary thespian has been loosing track of time and days for just over a fortnight now and had not realized the sun had risen. (RL: Seriously, my days are just one giant day lately and completely forgot).
However, I am here and shall inform myself of the going ons of this heinous crime!! For I....I....Dangit...forgot my line again.... Alright, enough IC. Here, reading, will hopefully post shortly. I too may have to vote early, or not....depends on whether or not I can keep myself awake until 8 in the morning....and seeing as I'm currently busy with a show, the likelihood of that is slim to none. But I will be able to stick around and have some chatter for the better part of the Day. :) Now on to some reading. |
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And yes, I'm going to stick to it. ++Nogrod |
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Influential wolves, however, are. I've seen many villages brought down by silver-tongued beasts who have manipulated everyone into following them. I just don't want it to happen here. |
Sorry, did not have much time to finish the last post.
While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village, and as such, we need to be aware that a string of "bad luck" may not be entirely caused by chance. |
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* saying 40 posts obviously is no criteria as there have been occasions (not too many, but there have been a few games) where people have made great points, hard questions, bad answers, revealing comments, tough Q&A etc. in the first page of a WW-game. So of course the number of posts as such is no criteria, but in 9 games out of 10 (or 8, blah-blah), suffice to say "normally" the first page gives one little or no clue as to what is going on - and this game looked like just one of those games... Quote:
Or should I vote you because you "made a point about Menel"? The reason behind that vote would be as good as yours... I mean really, I took part in a discussion about one of the persons who had raised most discussion to give my two cents on it and was actually asking only for the motive for Menel to state the obvious the way he did (I'm still curious about that) and then actually went back thinking him less probably a wolf because of a) his long absence, and b) because of our history of me suspecting him so many times before because of the way he plays. Quote:
Now do you? :smokin: Good night (RL) and good luck... |
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So my problem with your "crusade" (sorry about that word) is that it is totally overdone and a bit misguided. There have been loud wolves trying to do that but they have been lynched soon enough basically every time. I mean anytime someone manages to convince others to lynch A or B and they turn out innocents that person gets lynched even if he is innocent (I should know that)... and actually that's the reason why the wolves love loudmouths who are wrong. :) So it's been a long time I have seen any wolf trying to openly lead the village as they know it's their downfall as sooner rather than later they will be lynched. But yeah, it's been a long time since you last played and the dynamics have somewhat changed while you have been away. You'll see... It is still fun, though. :) |
Back and reading...
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I don't remember Agan refering to an unknown role as a "she" before. Well, I would have had to learn that sooner or later. I apologize to the village for messing things, and - of course - I clear that point on Agan. But I was so excited when I saw it!... I hope you're better soon, sally! And Lommy! Quote:
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I find Menel's posts kinda awkward; not because he's saying the obvious truth, but because of how hard he defends it. When people commented on how he posts (ie being obvious), he repeated his point again with elaboration and etc., but was no less obvious. It's not like anyone disagrees with what he says, it's how he says it, and this does not change from post to post. I'll keep in mind that he is back from a very big break, and unless there's some more substancial point against him I wouldn't consider him more suspicious than most. Quote:
I'll put up a list of some sort a bit later. |
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Pitch is pinging my radar. Quote:
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Whew, I think that's pretty much everything thus far. Dear light, might I trouble you for another drink? Thirsty work, and all that. :Merisu: |
<-- Genuine Numenorian dagger, only 20 shiremarks. Definitely not stolen. Nope.
Inzil's post does seem a bit suspicious to me, despite my disagreement with Nogrod thus far, in a "psst, cobbler, give us some hints so we don't eat you" way.
What is stranger still, as Shasta pointed out, was the lack of reaction to this statement of Inzil's and so far only Nogrod seems to regard it as "off." |
Whew. Dealing with rough weather here tonight! I think I'm one of the few around here who has electricity.
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Pitch mostly makes sense, but every so often something, like the Kath suspicion, makes me wonder. And the vote for Nog sure was sudden. Quote:
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Ok. It's bedtime, and with the morning madness that is my weekday routine, I may or may not make back before DL.
I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there. However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse. ++G55 Choose well. |
Shasta - still toiling through the snow, it seems.
Menel - oy vey. Why so concentrated on proving a truth that already has been proven, when he is questioned based on why he posts it rather the content itself? Menel concentrated on this one issue, though he didn't actually comment directly on it, without participating in others. I can't say that an obsession with proving the obvious truth is signalling a wolf, though, and since there's hardly aught else there's not much to go on. I suppose I'll accept what others have said about this being his playing style (since they would know better than me) and letting it go for toDay. Glirdan - still reading. G55 - *waves* Nerwen - hard to tell, which is nothing new. Legate - makes me alert, but no red light yet. Can't really say where the ill-at-ease feeling is comming from. Pitchwife - I think he is overly suspicious of Kath's question about the cobbler pick going through. Or, rather, he gives me the vibe that he's expectant of people to side with him, even wanting people to side with him (Mostly referring to #21). However, his vote for Nog is not unreasonable from his perspective. Nogrod - doesn't look too out-of-character. Says what he would normally say. Except... see note on bottom. Lommy – sick, therefore excused. I love her for saying that I "mess around" on Day Ones, cause that's what usually ends up happening. Objectively speaking, she looks ok. Inzil - seems like the same innocent Inzil I've seen in previous games. Agan - is Agan *sigh*. She's a cobbler whatever her actual role. Sally - full of migrane, therefore excused. Kath - Despite the suspicion, I rather like that she brought up the cobbler, since it gave people something to discuss. And the questions she asks (eg about the narration) are something an innocent could ask just as much as a wolf, so in my opinion they don't show any particular wolvishness. NOTE: Quote:
Blargh, this is worse that the "she-cobbler" case. I can't build proper cases on Day1. >< EDIT: xed since my last. Shasta's here!!! |
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Tripple posting?
Well, I have to go to bed soon, otherwise my head will feel like a brick tomorrow. Looking at my list, Pitch is the one who gives me the most bad vibes. See the list for my thoughts on him.
++PITCH Incidentally, what was the decision for ties? I don't think this point was ever clarified... |
I think I'll vote now, and it will be for
++Inziladun |
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Summa summarum - G55 suspects Menel until opposition is too strong, and backs off, going instead for Pitch with odd/weird/confusing reasoning. I don't disagree that Pitch is suspicious (cf. my previous post - he does seem like he's jumping at the chance to blow up incredibly minor things into full-fledged suspicion), but I think I'm more suspicious of G55. ++G55 |
Back. Reading.
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Okay here's what I have.
I don't necessarily suspect Kath for starting to talk about the cobbler. She was the first person I reacted to, but there had been very little talk so far. Menel is a dilemma because it would be dangerous to ignore him just because he always looks suspicious. I think Shasta looks relatively good despite misquoting me. G55 was grasping at straws with me and to an extent Nog. I remember her being suspected because of grasping at straws before, and I'm not entirely clear about who xed with whom in the Menel episode. I could find her suspicious though, but I'd rather not just yet. Nog and Pitch are being odd. Nog was jumpy when accused. He's always jumpy when accused though. Pitch should know there's rarely lots of content on day 1, Nog should know you don't need lots of posts for content. Inzil is smooth. Of anyone else I don't have a clear idea. Not that these are very clear either. Hmm. I'll basically have to vote now. ++Pitch He's the one I feel the most comfortable voting. Ps. a message for Lommy who I know will appreciate it: you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet! |
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EDIT:X'd with Agan. |
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So I'm here, I've read everything and I have to vote like in 10min... could have woken up earlier but no can do anymore. Also, I was not *so* sick yesterday, I don't need to be excused because of it. Shall post again very soon, now off to feed the tortoise and think...
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Okay, to be honest I have no idea. The only ones whose behaviour I find suspicious are Menel and Galadriel, both of whose behaviour I ALWAYS suspect, especially on Day1.
So let's go with gut-feeling: ++Aganzir |
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Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55 G55 -> Pitch Menel -> Zil Shasta -> G55 2 Agan -> Pitch 2 Lommy -> Agan Six votes to come: Glirdy, Nerwen, Legate, Sally, Kath & me. G55's twists and turns sure merit a second look and I still think Pitch looks suspicious. But with G55's vote on Pitch it looks less plausible they both are wolves (not impossible, naturally, but less plausible). Of others I have too little to suspect them for the time being - and I will not vote for Menel on D1 when he's back in the game after such a long time - unless he starts to scream wolf: which is probably not going to happen as he has voted and left... Be back a little later. |
Popping in shortly, there seems to be (or was) rather nice discussion.
Ad G55's reaction to Menel-debate, I find it awkward. In the end, she decided not to vote him, but one can still look at it as "feeding suspicion". Quote:
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Anyway, other thing, Nog is standing out a bit to me, his reaction to Pitch being somewhat too jumpy. Quote:
Also, his remarks about Menel earlier were more like "theoretical", now he calls it "crusade" - even though obviously he does not mean it that strongly, as he himself says, still from the rest of the post it seems he condemns Menel quite strongly ("totally overdone"). Quote:
Ugh! And this again was far longer than I wanted... off... Shall be back later still to vote. |
Ugh. All right, all right, I'm awake, and off to make some early morning deliveries. I'll have a quick chat with everyone as I go and see who I think is responsible for this insanity.
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Okay. I had to check back as to what Menel actually said, and the following is the thing making me uneasy with him:
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Secondly. Menel's "plan" (let's call it a plan then and not a crusade...:rolleyes:) is based on faulty premises, that a) wolves always wish (or need) to lead the lynching, that b) the wolves only vote for innocents, that c) innocents are good at avoiding lynching other innocents, that d) the seer doesn't do her/his job. An example: let's say we have two villagers. Villager A has been a strong advocat of two lynches which both have turned out innocents. Villager B has voted both times for a person who has not been lynched as B has been against the tide going for those lynched innocents. Now which one is more probably a wolf? I'd put my money on B. If we dilute ("homeopathisize" :p) Menel's suggestions into "we should be aware of people who might give a little nudge here and there" like Legate seems to be doing, then we're of course making more sense, but that's actually only saying "look around" which I think we all try to do. Although we still face a problem which is that it is basically impossible for an ordo to see "a purposeful knowledge-based nudge" from "trying to make even a weak point based on hunches". |
Well then...
So G55 has done some interesting turns and the way Shasta analyzed it makes her look quite guilty indeed. The problem with lynching G55 is that she seems to be ending up as a D1 lynch a little too often as a "usual suspect". Pitch could receive my vote as well as I think his vote was based on "forced reasons" - which always alarm me, especially when an intelligent and experienced player does them. I mean I would have thought an innocent Pitch would have thought of the best of the village more and not vote someone on such bad / non-existent reasons. Others than the two I seem to have no good reasons to vote at the moment. |
Hey, I have to leave for work, and will be voting from my phone right as I walk in. Could someone be so kind as to give me a vote count? I'll slip an extra cupcake in with your morning mail!
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Twenty minutes. Where are you people?
Any new ideas, anyone? |
Should I take it then that G55 or Pitch is a wolf and the mates are now hanging around not willing to take side hoping they will not be forced to make a move (to try and avoid a lynch of their mate if s/he's eventually lynched, or not willing to cast the first stone as there is still hope someone else will be lynched - but would hjoin the wagon if the case is lost?)?
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