All right, now, if Agan's analysis made me think anything, it's that she is innocent.

So it's Lari, Mira, or (in brackets as I would like to hear more from him) Menel.

And if you are innocent, Agan, trust me that I am not stupid.

Okay, now let's see if I can reply to some of Agan's countless questions when I am at it...
And what do you think you should make out of it?

We are again at this topic, what more, it's a dead topic now (or rather, undead topic). So let's not start on that, sufficient to say, this is what I think is (or was) best for the innocents. I said it dozen times: Frodo should stay put, if he thinks he's under a threat, reveal. What you suggested on first Days seemed like much worse plans to me. But that's a difference of opinions, I believe.

Oh but I did, and I think I even said that, even after that. Certainly, I was among the first ones to think Mac is a Cobbler on the first Days. However, I will repeat it again, he is a mere Cobbler (and we are not even completely sure about that). Not a Wraith.

Yep, after reading her post, it seemed logical to me, I thought the way she revealed was genuine. I compared it to other things and it seemed to make sense to me. Of course, it was proven to be otherwise.

Well, like I said, and especially back then, nobody made it sure that he actually is a Cobbler. This subsumed both the idea that he is a known innocent (non-Wraith) AND eventually, okay, he may be a Cobbler, but even that is not definite.

Could somebody translate the meaning of this to me, please??

And Menel, is that all you have to say? I, for one (and I believe there are others as well) hoped to see more from you, once you are here...

I try to divide people into just two categories now because I don't think I can afford any more Neithers.

Guilty
Lari. I still think she looks suspicious, and there were also some comments from today I was supposed to say something about. Oh yes her suggestions about why Mac is still alive & that Rikae's death implicates Rune are weird. However I don't know what to make of Legate's attack against her. I could vote for her today, but I'd rather vote Legate or Mac.
Legate. See my above post.
Mac. If you're innocent, let it be known that I'll eat my pretty hat. I'd rather lynch him before he manages to cause any serious harm.

In between
Greenie. She looks suspicious, although only after Frodo was turned. Just doesn't seem honest. Also, Legate finding her innocent doesn't make it any better.
Menel. I think Greenie's points against him were good, but since I'm more suspicious of her, I don't think I can judge him objectively. One of them could well be a wolf, though.

And Mira... Heck I've forgotten about her as I was not supposed to do! I really really don't know. Rikae suspected her quite a lot. I will probably have to do a bit more reading.

Innocent
Berry. Nothing alarming. He's been somewhat quiet lately, though.
Nerwen. I haven't paid much attention to her but she looks quite innocent.
Rune. I don't think he would have attacked a fellow / been attacked by a fellow like that. I won't exclude the possibility of him being Frodo, but actually out of people alive today, he looks the most innocent.

Anyway right now a Legate/Greenie couple :p seems quite possible to me. I could also vote for Lari... But the fact that both Greenie and Legate suspect her doesn't make me feel too good about it.

**

Ha! You know he's not dead but you know he's innocent? :p

Totally agreed. I don't think we can afford to be nice and wait - if you believe someone is a wolf, you should go with xem rather than your second-best suspect.
Unless it's all the same for you who dies.

Sorry for my absence so far toDay. At least I'll be here now probably up until the deadline.

*goes to read thread*

Menel, if you're around, you could as well reply to Greenie's accusations.

I don't know. I wondered about it and decided to mention it although I have no idea if you were just sloppy or if it had a deeper meaning.

I think you suspected him of being a wraith, not the cobbler. And at this point it doesn't matter if he's a cobbler, not a wraith, he should die before he gets to help the wolves win.
Also, you suspected him really heavily back then. Now, it's likely he is the cobbler, but you don't care about him anymore. Why?

Mostly, I considered Legate to be trustworthy based on his posts making sense to me throughout the game, and he had narrowed it down to either Aganzir or Mirandir. Agan had struck me as not really suspicious earlier this game, so I voted for Mirandir.

I am about to colaps in front of the computer. . .so unless somebody comes up with a good case that I can join, I will be voting for Menel.

He often acts the way he has done so far and is what I would consider an easy victim, but I doubt I will be able to come up with anything right now.

I know he answered my question about why he voted the way he did, but it is the same kind of reasoning as always and it is almost impossible to analyze.

It was a short nickname.

Oh yes, true. Well, anyway, I suspected him, and it just sort of swung into this.

Well, it's just that I want to focus on the Wraiths right now. If you say I am silly by not giving any care to him, then I think you are silly by putting too much emphasis on him. But that's fine, I understand what you mean. However, just think of what I mean.

Hmm, well, even if you are making that an easy basis for yourself (and I am honoured), you could have waited because as you see, I have reevaluated a bit. And in either case, I won't put that just on me, as even I could have made a mistake.

One question, Menel, for I am never capable to figure it out when you do things like that in games. Is it so that you were in some generally not-very-clearly-decided state and so then just adjusted your pick on whom to vote according to my suspect list?

Which just happened to be the same as Mac's character name? :Merisu:

I can't for the life in me see why an innocent you would want to ignore the cobbler this late in the game.

Rune could you consider voting for Legate or Greenie? They are the people I'd prefer to see dead.

I have been considering it for a few hours, but I really think that tomorrow will reveal alot to me about the 3 of you.

What? :eek:

Okay, honestly, I haven't thought about that :D


I am not going to ignore him toMorrow. But of course the best thing to do now is to ignore him. Mac was not around all day, but he is here and hopefully will be posting. Don't you want to see what he will post?

However, I am getting tired... But still, I would like to see at least something from Mac...

I'm going to post what I have so far, and more later.

I don't know if Menel's lack of posting is a good reason to keep him safe. He hasn't posted much the whole game. Though he likely has a good reason, it's an excellent way to remain innocentish. I'm not saying he's guilty, just that we shouldn't let him off the hook for this reason.

Legate has written some excellent exposition throughout the game, and has remained innocent. He really hasn't given me a reason to suspect him. I'm more confident of his ordo-ness than of anyone elses at this point.

Rune has done a few things which seem to exonerate him. In post 927 Lari doesn't like how he opposed Fea's proposed lynching on day 2. Well, he turned out to be right about Fea, whatever his reasons. I don't have reason to suspect Rune at this point.

I still have suspicions of Mac as Ferny. But I'm trying to decide if it would be better to vote him now if so, or try for a possible wraith. At first I thought it made sense to go after wraiths, but now I'm not so sure.

Lari is making me wonder - the last few days she's seemed guilty. I'm considering voting for her, but I should read more first.

I don't know about Aganzir, Nerwen, or Greenie. Mira seems innocent to me.

Alright I will vote Greenie, although the look of her posts have been good, in the sense that she makes valid points. She could be a wraith anyway though she has been quite good at keeping friends with people and not attact to brutaly, but she has not been viewed as passive. . .It is what I would try as a wraith.

I am not convinced of her quilt, but I after much debating I decided that a wraith Menel would probably try harder. Anyways lets see where this goes.

++Greenie

Haha it was pretty amusing. :p

I certainly hope so. It'd be better if he was lynched tomorrow unless we can come up with someone whose guilt we are really sure about...
And what difference does it make if we see him post now? I know I can't trust him, anyway, so it doesn't matter - except that he can mislead some people.

Berry don't let Legate lead you. He can be pretty darn convincing if he wants to, and that's dangerous, especially as he is quite suspicious this time.

Yep. Well - he can mislead somebody nevertheless, now or later, if he is so, but I just wanted to see him post before I go, so that I can eventually react if he says something of concern. Or whatever. But doesn't matter.

*scratches head* I tend to believe that one Wraith is between Lari and Mira. Most likely.

But, in any case, I am really going for

++Lari

as for the reasons I stated above. And let us see if it can shed some light...

I will wait around yet, for a short while at least.

:rolleyes:

Greenie: Lari
Menel: Mira
Rune: Greenie
Legate: Lari

Lari-2, Mira-1, Greenie-1

Six votes still to come.

Ah well... is there anybody around still? I am trying to use some of the time for doing whatever good things I can so late at night, but slowly I am getting exhausted. Is anybody going to post in some reasonable time?

I'm here and I'm just debating myself whether I should take a look at Greenie's posts now, but it's soon 4am so I don't know. However I don't have an exam tomorrow so I can sleep as long as I want to.

Lucky you. But hey, I can do that too. (That looking at the posts.) Not sure how well I'll be able to do that at this hour, but at least briefly, once again...

Keep in mind that the ranger might not have been able to protect her because he did so the night before. In that case, it is not clear whether the ranger protected me the night Lommy died, or, expecting Lommy to be dead by then, saved me for last night. It would be too cool, though, if the ranger could still protect me this night. *crosses fingers*


I see that Aganzir still continues to go after me. You're wasting effort you could use looking for wraiths, and I think you do it deliberately. You're even aware of it, as you stated several times. However, as you yourself said, just because somebody admits something, it doesn't make it better. I used to think it was just a quirk of yours to go after me no matter what, but now I'm starting to wonder whether there is some strategy behind it this time. I really hope I'll find time to have another look at you toDay at last.


I'd like to add my name to the list of people who think the way Lari goes after Rune is weird. She's confusing me and I don't know what to think of her anymore.


Now I reached Agan's analysis of Legate. Agan, if you're innocent, then you're really on a dangerous track toDay. Your assumption that I'm the cobbler leads you to assume that Legate is evil. I have the strong feeling this will end in the death of two innocents yet again. (It also reminds me of Legate's mad Day3 pursuit of Fea and me.) Snap out of it, please. You're too valuable to the village if objective.

And who is talking about it most? :rolleyes:

He said tend! Sheesh!

This is wraith talk, or Ferny talk at the very least. Yes, I did say it myself that if I keep on staying alive you can just lynch me, but please, statements like these just encourage them to keep me alive and have you waste a lynch! You're preparing the field for it!

Is there a reason why would it fit a Legatewolf especially or is this a generic statement to make somebody look bad?


Menel keeps on baffling me.


Does it even occur to you anymore that I could be neither?? And in case you don't know, but the best way to not let any cobbler help the wolves win - is to lynch the wolves before s/he gets a chance to! If we're completely clueless one Day, it might be a reasonable idea to lynch a presumed cobbler, but on any other occasion, it's idiotic. If we lynch two wraiths, we win. If we lynch the cobbler and one wraith, we lose.


Whether or not to lynch a known(!) cobbler is actually almost a philosophical question in WW. A cobbler counts as an innocent, so his life can even make the village win. Plus, lynching him means forgoing a chance to lynch a wraith. On the other hand, the cobbler has a vote, and that can mess up some things - especially late in the game. He can also prove to be somewhat of a distraction. Also, since the cobbler's knowledge is limited (and even though the wraiths might know his identity, I think it's very unlikely he knows all of theirs) his vote might unintentionally lynch a wraith.


A last thought about Aganzir: Would a wraith really be so determined to get a quasi-known innocent lynched? They would surely try it (and it's easy to do so right now, as it's reasonable to suspect me of cobblerdom, however slightly), but like this? The real cobbler, however, s/he could get the idea that getting me lynched is worth dying for. I really need a clearer picture of Aganzir.

Go ahead. Let's see if we reach the same conclusions. ;)

OK, I've got more time to read over the thread now.

--Mirandir

I'll be back with my real vote, as that was simply a placeholder.

Nope I don't think I'm wasting anything, I've been making cases against people I find suspicious and just suspect you besides them.

No again. Those two things just seem to back each other up. See, looking at day 1 he was behaving in a way that indicated he was a wraith talking to the presumed Ferny. That had nothing to do with you being or not being Ferny, it was the way he reacted to your Fernyish comments.

I wouldn't be if I didn't have a reason to.

Yeah he tends to trust the cobbler.

As if they didn't have a reason to keep you alive.

My thoughts ran along the lines of Legate killing the only person to suspect him that far. Yes it could look bad on him (as it did) but Rikae can be very persistent and therefore quite dangerous, as you should know.

Yes for some reason it occurred to me you might not be a wolf... But I haven't considered for a while the possibility that you are actually an ordo. Your behaviour speaks for you.

Yes and I was saying that if we can't come up with any really good wraith suspects, we should lynch you! However I hope we've pinned at least one, if not the both, of them, so you need not worry. You'll survive but you're just going to lose. :p

No, the only thing that can make the village win is the death of the last wolf. The cobbler's life (and vote) can only help the wolves.

Poor cobbler! Did the wraiths see fit to keep him in the dark about things? :p

Well, I looked through LG's posts, fortunately there wasn't much. I won't go on lengths here, seeing Mac has posted, I will just finish this and go.

LG, from re-reading, looks perhaps more possibly sinister than I thought her before, she keeps Brinn & Sally mostly in a neutral or trusting zone, but then, she keeps most of the people there often. She could be downplaying suspicions of Brinniel:

Yet that is something I thought as well, so I can't mark it as a wolfy thing, as anybody can do that, seemingly. She jumps on some Fea bandwaggon, that could be suspicious, and on the other Day she dismisses it with mentioning the main participants (me and Rikae) and that's it, mostly. But whatever. She believes Lommy rightaway (with a slight carefulness), but that was quite the most reasonable thing to do then anyway.

Besides that, I have mostly learned only how many name variants you can make out of one name, e.g. Lomzy, Lommins (sounds like Moomins), or from another name: Leggings, etc. Most impresive.

But overall. Not enough for me to suspect her, not to the point of voting her, for sure, or at least not now. There are moments where she seems really genuine, and I hope it being so.

That would be it for toDay from me. A few more minutes, and then I go to sleep. Bye.

All right.

I am leaving.

Hope we lynch a Wraith toDay.

Hope the Village is full of intelligent innocents yet and will be so toMorrow yet. I trust that.

Ignore Cobblers for the rest of the Day.

Hope to see you later.

Good night.

I know. You make it sound, however, as if this way of thinking is especially applicable to Legate. It is applicable to anybody and therefore generic and the usage of generic wraith accusations is suspicious to me.

Other than that, I give up on you. Keep on living in your own world. I just hope it won't be decisive in the end.

Hello, what's happening? I am posting this from a cafe- I won't have time to read everything and will have to vote in a hurry.

It's just that Legate seemed to be the only person who hadn't been suspected at all throughout the game...

Sorry, I really hate suspecting you like this every time. :( I just can't help it. But if you really turn out innocent in this game... Then I honestly promise to do something about it.

I'm going through Greenie's posts now and it's 5 am so I'm not going to stay here long after that.

edit: xed with Nerwen. Good to see you're back. :)

Don't *hic* lynch the tavern wench! We all need beer in thish *hic* town.
 

I have finished evaluating Lari.

She does not give off any wraith-like vibes to me, at least not if I'm interpreting her posts correctly. While her attacks against Durelin may have been somewhat ill-founded, I believe that she perceived a reason for them, though a more seasoned player may not have been so alarmed. Also, I think I understand her reference to Saggitarius.

I'll post my thoughts on Greenie next.

Want to share it with us as well?

Okay. Rune was right about Brinniel, so for the moment I'll turst his judgement and vote

++A Little Green

also because she started talking about whether Lommy was Ferny after she revealed, which I found a little dubious at the time.

But this is just a placeholder vote and hopefully I will be home before the deadline and able to vote properly.

Sorry about my lack of participation yesterDay, but I just couldn't get to a computer.

Ugh, this *URRRK* hangover makes me feel like I've been shot in the *blargh* head.
 

I find myself agreeing that Greenie is likely the Ringbearer, due to the fact that she frequently asked about the role on Day 1 and later, in a list of suspects, she frequently mentions things like "No bells ring."

My comment earlier regarding Rikae taking the heat off the actual ranger was due to the fact that during her banter yesterday, she jokingly claimed to be the ranger. It's possible the wraiths attacked her thinking she might be serious.

Oh, and

++A Little Green

On day 1 Greenie wondered if Frodo's role is revealed if xe gets lynched. She said it would sound ideal if no one discovered Frodo's identity, and we should concentrate on finding the wraiths, not the RB. She voted for Gollum as she felt the worst about him.

On day 2 she accused Nog of making the day 1 votes such an issue. I can agree with her, Nog was strange. In #247 she thought Brinn looked innocent and had no read on sally. The whole list was quite close to my own opinions.
Brinn found her suspiciously careful & was worried about her. I don't think she would've treated a fellow who wasn't suspected almost at all like that.
She voted for Nog, which is alright with me.

Greenie started to get a bad feeling about Lari on day 3. Me too. She still found Brinn okay & had no read on sally. Voted Fea. Understandable.

Then day 4, after Frodo was turned.

Greenie said that the easiest thing to do about the Fea bandwagon would be to look at the people who were for it the most, ie Rikae and Legate, but she expressed doubts about a wolf being so loudly for an innocent's lynching. She added that we should look for people who go with the flow.
As for Frodo, she said it's important we compare people's posts to their posts on the previous days.

I'm still uncomfortable with the way Greenie says she believes Lommy's claim. She repeats things - says twice she's inclined to believe Lommy's claim for now, with almost exactly the same phrasing. Also, she suggests a thing but takes it back instantly, in a way: Lommy would be a very bold wolf as she'd lose two of her fellows, but then again Frodo is a wolf now... Today would be the perfect time to impersonate the seer, but then again it wouldn't make sense... She could be Ferny, but then again it doesn't seem very likely... And in the end Greenie half aplogizes, half explains why she was so eager to cast some random suspicion which she took back so that all that was left was a vague bad feeling that Lommy might not be the seer, after all:
Day 5. She said Legate seemed very innocent. If they're fellows, that's a bold thing to do. Also, she found it more likely that Mac was innocent than Ferny.

Then there's her Menel analysis. She brings up valid points against him, but at the same time it seems somehow too easy. Menel almost always comes across as suspicious, and Greenie seems to be making too much into things. Exaggerating.

Today the people she did not find specifically innocentish were Lari (flip-flopping on her), Mira (no read), Nerwen (no read), and Menel (somewhat suspicious, might vote in lack of better suspects).

She wondered why Mac hadn't died and reached the conclusion it's possible he's Ferny. If she's a wolf & Mac is Ferny, she could probably have found a way to hint the wolves thought Mac was protected or wanted to leave him alive for confusion's sake. However, if he is not the cobbler, it's reasonable for a Greenwolf to say so.

She said she didn't want to vote for Menel today if he couldn't defend himself. In a way I can understand her, but at the same time I think that at this stage we should vote for our primary suspects.
In the end she voted for Lari.

**

I think she looked quite innocent up until Frodo was turned, but right after that she made some eyebrow-raising comments. Today she has looked more innocentish again. Garr I don't know! It could also be that she's got more used to being a wolf again and that's why the change for the better in her behaviour...

++Greenie

Right now I suspect her more than Lari and I don't want to start spreading the votes by voting for Legate. Also, if she's a wolf, then I'm pretty positive Legate is one, too. It would just make sense.

edit: xed with Nerwen & two Menels. Good catch about the bells ringing.

Aganzir makes many posts and long ones. A long time ago I told myself not to thoroughly analyse people who talk this much, since I found out it is strongly detrimental to my mental health. Therefore, here's the brief Aganzir now.

On Day1 she's one of those suggesting that Frodo might want to be turned, which of course could be interpreted as a suggestion. She casts a random vote for Lari. She explains it with being tired, which is an RL reason which one should not attack usually, but I still find it remarkable how one can be so tired to not remember who one found suspicious before and who not. Then again, an evil Aganzir would probably not need such excuses.

On Day2 she's a bit undecided about the later kill Nogrod but he's her top suspect. Would that more or less reason for her to kill him? Not sure. Brinn and Sally are in nowhere land. She makes a Brinn-analysis and finds her innocent. She votes for me.

Day3:

This comment is not only self-contradicting (I don't know why she bothers me - her vote is suspicious), but also very, very fishy.

She later decides to defend Rune (she will keep on finding Rune innocent). She also makes a comment against Brinn and made a deleted analysis of Miri and found her suspicious (the next day she'll re-analyse and change her mind). She joins the Fea-waggon.

Day4:

It's not that she wonders who of the two lies, it's again the carefulness behind it that makes me suspicious. Later, however, she supports Lommy.

On Day5 she analyses Lari and concludes that she might be Frodo. I agree that she's suspicious, but I don't know how Aganzir ended up with Frodo here. It makes little sense at this point (it makes more with the *later* inclusion of Brinn). Funny how Miri ended up being guilty again in #762.

On Day6 she starts losing her objectivity and goes after me. A "Btw, be aware that he could be the cobbler, too" is reasonable, but she goes overboard.

The first two days aren't very suspicious. The third day, however, looks like a cobbler not knowing what to do with the death of Durelin. She could have figured out that Fea was probably not a wraith and therefore a good target, but her behaviour towards Rune and Lari especially is very careful (she reached different conclusions for the two later and also keeps changing her mind / forgetting about Miri). Unfortunately, that's all. She probably *is* innocent and just extremely misguided concerning me (that's why I lost interest in going into more detail on the last two days). Ah, well...

Lily -> Lari
Menel -> Miri
Rune -> Lily
Legate -> Lari
Nerwen -> Lily
Menel -- Miri -> Lily
Agan -> Lily

A Little Green 4, Lariren 2


If you ask me, the case against A Little Green is made of thin air. I certainly suspect Lari enough to vote for her, but the fact that Lari is still left to vote and Lily isn't gives me a bad feeling about toDay's lynch.

++Lariren Shadow

Legate: This is my second game. I was really just looking for someone who would be a suspect that the wolves could have thought of for lynching Rikae. Because, even this late in the game, it was sort of a blameless kill to me. I really still don't know a lot of things, see my thinking Ferny isn't a cobbler speech.

Ok, I really didn't like Greenie's vote for me. Not because it was for me, but because she didn't want to vote me but did? I don't like it. And not just because it was for me and it seems like its between me and her right now, but because, well, it seems like a really bad reason.

Ok on to another list:

Stick(Miri): Hasn't said much today. But then again she also said that she was doing things like playing with clay and watching the Super Bowl. I really don't think she's guilty. But I could be wrong.

Legate: I really have no idea how to think of him. I read through a few of his posts and he seems innocent but then I read through the next few and I get the feeling he's being very careful to manipulate and convince people which makes me think wolf/wraith. I really don't think I want to vote for him, but I'm honestly not sure.

Agan: Has been doing long posts of explinations and such, which is sort of reminding me of her in the last game where she was innocent. But I get the same feeling form her that I do from Legate, though for her it's generally me thinking she's innocent more than guilty.

Beregond: Seems innocent enough. That's really all, sorry you don't get more.

Nerwen: Really no idea, but more innocent.

Rune: I still don't like most of his posts. But he seems to explain a little after each. Not sure if I want to vote for him though.

Mac: Is a known innocent and I wouldn't vote for him.

Menel: I hope you got it right. I really don't think he looks guilty at all. He seems more innocent to me. Actually, probably the most innocent to me.

Greenie: I really didn't like her vote. Really at all. And for the reasons above, not because it was for me. It just seemed...odd.

So, for all the reasons in this post and, yes, in a way to save myself, I admit it:

++Greenie