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-   -   Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=18896)

Aganzir 06-10-2015 07:28 AM
Unless the other thread gets really vocal. Not sure how many people we have around right now.

Aganzir 06-10-2015 07:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir (Post 698308)
I took the phantom's list from a few days back and expanded it based on DAY 2 voting. DAY 3 votes don't tell us much - looking at people's suspicions might, but I don't have the time for it now.
  • Firefoot/Mac - dangerously placed vote, unless she'd decided to bus Mac.
  • Kath/Form - low-risk vote on DAY 1 but just not worth risking it.
  • morm/Lottie - Lottie voted morm early on DAY 2.
  • morm/Mac - a DAY 1 vote would be totally useless, voted Mac again DAY 2.
  • Nerwen/Mac - early DAY 2 vote, likely to be followed.
  • Shasta/Lottie - throwaway vote very late on DAY 2, but he was the first person to cast a vote for her.

DEAD:

Nog/Boro
Nog/phantom
Nog/Lottie
Nog/Eomer
Nog/Shasta

Rikae/Lommy
I'll have to leave very soon so don't have time to look at this further. Would like to, though.

Could still perhaps update it a little, based on what we know.
  • Kath/Form - low-risk vote on DAY 1 but just not worth risking it.
  • Kath/Mith - would Mith keep bringing up a fellow's absence. (I'm also noting morm is talking about it.)
  • morm/Lottie - Lottie voted morm early on DAY 2.
  • morm/Mac - a DAY 1 vote would be totally useless, voted Mac again DAY 2.

Nerwen 06-10-2015 07:31 AM
Well, I'm here.

Aganzir 06-10-2015 07:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim (Post 699029)
I don't know if this is a stretch, but did anyone else have the feeling that Nilp may have been empowered by the Dead yesterday? If so, the narration is quite cryptic; but it does mention that Nilp jumped up and pulled the lever on himself - he didn't cast the deciding vote as a few people voted him after his self-vote, so I'm puzzled that he's described as pulling the lever.

Could be nothing more than a joke, of course, but if not then it would indicate that Legate was innocent.

Depending on who the Ranger is and who they tried to save (if still in the village) we might be able to narrow it down from 4 (Morm, Form, Mith & Kath) to 3 or 2. Then I'd say it's just a matter of killing them off one by one.

Note that I'm taking Sally's post yesterday as proof of a certain someone's innocence, but if that was some sort of in-joke then we should really get that confirmed. ;)
He forgot McC though!

I don't have time to go back to look at sally's posts right now but if there's something that suggests her lover is still alive, all the better for us all.

Aganzir 06-10-2015 07:36 AM
Okay got to go now. Nerwen, take us to 1,050. :smokin:

Rikae 06-10-2015 07:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mithalwen (Post 699023)
Not sure that Lalaith is the most useful information at this point. If Nerwen were the Seer she may have had her dreams before she died. Wouldn't it be more useful to contrive something to find out something out abput the living since we must be nearing a very delicate stage.

Personally speaking, while it would make days easier to be a proven innocent such identification post lynch vote might be counterproductive in that it pins a nice target for the wolves. So maybe only ask them to identify a known wolf.. obviously not by giving them the bonus vote but with either prearranged "pairs" or other system?
She's right, and therefore will be completely ignored.

EDIT: Next post, #1047, at 9:51
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
I should really let Nerwen have this post, but she doesn't seem to be around, so:

https://anthonystephens.files.wordpr...-champions.jpg

Macalaure 06-10-2015 07:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund (Post 699024)
Esty and Mr Underhill have 100% win rates, right? Unless they joined a game while I was away or you have a minimum number of games played requirement.
Yes, they do. Along with 15 others, most of them obscure.

I usually go with a minimum of 10 games played, to make it a bit more significant.

The average percentage was 45.5%, by the way, since the wolves were a bit more successful than the village, at least up to that game.

Lalaith 06-10-2015 07:54 AM
If that means that people can now stop posting pictures of Nicholas Cage, then I am happy.

Rikae 06-10-2015 07:55 AM
http://s24.postimg.org/ww108311h/1050posts.jpg

EDIT: My post #1051 at 9:58
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Morm is probably going to wait until a few of us have probably voted due to time zones, and then switch his list around.

Macalaure 06-10-2015 07:56 AM
If we get to 1100 before the living get to 750, I'll add a bonus and give you the name of someone who is not a wolf with me. ;)

Legate of Amon Lanc 06-10-2015 08:54 AM
Just quickly running through, will be back later... but I see, looks like you did it, nice, folks :D

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae (Post 699040)
Morm is probably going to wait until a few of us have probably voted due to time zones, and then switch his list around.
Certainly. Anyway, I think we should give the lists toDay only secondary importance and vote most of all to empower someone who votes for Wolf (preferably one with more chance to get lynched). If we can get any extra info, of course the better.

Nilpaurion Felagund 06-10-2015 08:58 AM
They still haven't noticed the lack of highlighted onomatopoeia in my death scene.

Also,
Quote:
I am not saying I regard myself as above suspicion, on the contrary a case could have been made from the first days when I was bored and frustrated from having no certainties, pointless philosophising and being expected to be no more than a playing piece in the phantom's game.
Yup, she is my mother.

Macalaure 06-10-2015 09:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae (Post 699040)
Morm is probably going to wait until a few of us have probably voted due to time zones, and then switch his list around.
Good man! :)

Nilpaurion Felagund 06-10-2015 09:47 AM
Yes, Boro! You're barking up the right tree!

Loslote 06-10-2015 10:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae (Post 699038)
Wow, that wasn't even close. :p

Well, you've earned this. I would like to introduce you now to one of my packmates. They've been at my side for a long time. A tireless companion as we faced the despicable forces of good, a partner in evil, a brother in arms, and a fiend to top all other fiends:

Everyone, meet Macalaure!

http://i618.photobucket.com/albums/t...rt-excited.gif

Macalaure 06-10-2015 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote (Post 699057)
Hi! :)

I was honestly amused by all those proposed wolf pairings that but us into different packs. I mean, other than you stating that we were not after you were lynched, I thought we were pretty obvious. :D

Loslote 06-10-2015 10:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure (Post 699060)
Hi! :)

I was honestly amused by all those proposed wolf pairings that but us into different packs. I mean, other than you stating that we were not after you were lynched, I thought we were pretty obvious. :D
I couldn't believe we weren't called out on it yet! Agan figured it out, right? She hinted about it awhile ago, but it got lost in some big posting bubble. :D

Macalaure 06-10-2015 10:17 AM
What shall the next challenge be? Should we have them post enough pictures to equal the Crazy Captions thread? :D

edit: and anything involving Nicolas Cage counts double!

Nerwen 06-10-2015 10:17 AM
Knew it!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Me
I think we should consider the possibility that either Lottie switched the kills in her accusation of Firefoot and that it was Lottie's pack who killed tp and Rikae, or that Mac was her fellow
Not that it's actually "either/or" anyway.

Nilpaurion Felagund 06-10-2015 10:19 AM
http://puu.sh/ijFHk/0e22bcbffa.gif

Loslote 06-10-2015 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure (Post 699064)
edit: and anything involving Nicolas Cage counts double!
Well, of course! :D

Aganzir 06-10-2015 10:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote (Post 699062)
I couldn't believe we weren't called out on it yet! Agan figured it out, right? She hinted about it awhile ago, but it got lost in some big posting bubble. :D
I did because eventually it was the only option that made sense! (I almost phrased something as boldly as "your only surviving pack member" some time before I told Mac to get a grip but I think I decided against it in the end). And you two have been able to PM the entire time, too!

I have a question though - is morm or Form one of yours? Because if yes I'd suggest a deal - we try to get the other pack lynched first (as much as it's possible) and give the last surviving Grip a chance to fight.

Or is there one? Is there something you'd like to tell us about Lalaith? :p

Aganzir 06-10-2015 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund (Post 699055)
Yes, Boro! You're barking up the right tree!
Best use of reaction gif so far. :D

Macalaure 06-10-2015 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir (Post 699068)
I have a question though - is morm or Form one of yours? Because if yes I'd suggest a deal - we try to get the other pack lynched first (as much as it's possible) and give the last surviving Grip a chance to fight.
Just a fair chance for that much info. I don't know.

I'd consider giving you the name if you offer to let her win. :p

Nilpaurion Felagund 06-10-2015 10:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure (Post 699064)
What shall the next challenge be? Should we have them post enough pictures to equal the Crazy Captions thread?

edit: and anything involving Nicolas Cage counts double!
http://puu.sh/ijG4g/30930484bc.gif
http://media.tumblr.com/4676c5364be8...RMV1rd3hzs.gif
http://oi50.tinypic.com/1g0gpe.jpg

Aganzir 06-10-2015 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure (Post 699070)
Just a fair chance for that much info. I don't know.

I'd consider giving you the name if you offer to let her win. :p
Her chances will be fairer if the Fang pack doesn't get her first.

Aganzir 06-10-2015 10:34 AM
Be nice, Mac.

http://38.media.tumblr.com/6ce4e03eb...7mxqo1_500.gif

Loslote 06-10-2015 10:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir (Post 699068)
I have a question though - is morm or Form one of yours? Because if yes I'd suggest a deal - we try to get the other pack lynched first (as much as it's possible) and give the last surviving Grip a chance to fight.
If we have the word of a majority of the thread that they will focus attention on another known wolf instead of ours, we will consider it.

Aganzir 06-10-2015 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote (Post 699075)
If we have the word of a majority of the thread that they will focus attention on another known wolf instead of ours, we will consider it.
I'm willing to give my word. I won't promise not to empower votes against them if that's the only option available to an honest villager, but I can and will make it my priority to focus on the Fang to bring them down first.

I'm not asking you to reveal them if they're still hidden, but I'd like to know more about the potential build of the second best pack, the more effectively to kill them.

http://i.imgur.com/n7Rqvpa.gif

Aganzir 06-10-2015 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mormegil (Post 699077)
Is this what you are thinking:

If:
morm is a wolf give vote to Form or McCaber
Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy
Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith
Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta
McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro
No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally

That spreads it out and I'm willing to give Boro the single vote as well as it's known that he's at least not a wolf though his motivations are unclear.
Whether they're in the same pack or not, it makes me laugh that this chart cross-empowers Tweedlemorm and Tweedleform.

Rikae 06-10-2015 11:07 AM
So (no wolves need to answer this) somebody was listing the likelihood of various wolf-pairings - what was there about the orm brothers?

Aganzir 06-10-2015 11:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien (Post 699081)
Conclusion: Dreamed the phantom, Firefoot, Lottie, Mac, Lommy, Eomer and Nilp. Last dream either Boro or Agan. I really wish I knew...
Not bad, Lommy. Not bad at all.

Aganzir 06-10-2015 11:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae (Post 699082)
So (no wolves need to answer this) somebody was listing the likelihood of various wolf-pairings - what was there about the orm brothers?
My last version is here. Granted it's based on general impressions rather than in-depth analysis, and while nothing suggests the Orms can't be wolves together, I'll take my hat off to morm if he's in the Grip pack.

Aganzir 06-10-2015 11:15 AM
I wonder how Lommy is going to make it to my place at 9 if she's still at the office playing werewolf. :D

Loslote 06-10-2015 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir (Post 699078)
I'm willing to give my word. I won't promise not to empower votes against them if that's the only option available to an honest villager, but I can and will make it my priority to focus on the Fang to bring them down first.
Will this deal still be available if we wait until closer to the deadline (or, well, closer to when we start voting) to see if our packmate is in trouble toDay?

Aganzir 06-10-2015 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote (Post 699088)
Will this deal still be available if we wait until closer to the deadline (or, well, closer to when we start voting) to see if our packmate is in trouble toDay?
I'm going to be occupied with friends for the next hours so it's not like I'll be able to do any analysis without getting yelled at. So in that sense yes, but do remember that the Fang will try to mess it up for you as well as in the Living thread, and they will know which Tweedle is in their pack and which isn't (unless they're both Fang). And also us Europeans can't wait till very close to the deadline.

Nogrod 06-10-2015 11:34 AM
Did you notice this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mith #744
However I have had an idea that is either bonkers or genius and I am not sure which. We know that there must be a majority of innocents in the dead thread now and that they seem to be horrifically active. I know given my vehement opposition to rigged voting day one but if we arranged a tie either of the unknowns or even go the whole hog and all just self vote then the dead can either take out a known wolf or if they don't know any leave us all to bicker another day. Too much of a risk of something going wrong?
That would be just genious!

Sadly no one seems to be noticing it...

Aganzir 06-10-2015 11:35 AM
Another option if you want to keep quiet about identities: tell us which kills were the Fang.

And if morm is responsible for the dead Europeans after his reaction to my joke got me lynched I swear to god I will end him!!

Rikae 06-10-2015 11:40 AM
One thing: I thought Lottie's pack killed me (for obvious reasons) but also that Mac's wouldn't have (because I wouldn't have looked seerish to them), and that's why I, at least, figured they weren't in a pack together.

If they are in the same pack, they probably didn't kill me. Meaning Morm's pack (since Morm was an unlikely packmate of Mac's) did.

Now, I avoided voting Morm on my last Day, although I don't think I'd necessarily have looked seerish about it. I went after Lottie & Firefoot. I don't see anything that would have made Mith, Kath or McCaber concerned about me (unless, of course, they assumed I was a seer who'd dreamed of opposing wolf Lottie).

Any reasons for Mith, Kath or McCaber to kill Legate?

EDIT: My post 1086
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien http://forum.barrowdowns.com/images/...s/viewpost.gif
Rather:

If morm is innocent, give an extra vote to morm
If morm is guilty, give an extra vote to Sally
If Form is innocent, give an extra vote to Form
If Form is guilty, give an extra vote to Lommy
If Kath is innocent, give an extra vote to Kath
If Kath is guilty, give an extra vote to Eomer
If Mith is innocent, give an extra vote to Mith
If Mith is guilty, give an extra vote to Shasta
If McCaber is innocent, don't give an extra vote
If McCaber is guilty, give an extra vote to Boro
If the village is screwing up or there's something else alarming such as Boro being a wolf (we can clarify this the next Day if needs be), give an extra vote to McCaber

Well, that's tolerable, I hope it sticks.
__________________
My post #1084 at 1:51
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Now, if one of them gets lynched toDay and we manage to send a message about the other, Boro can take him out toNight.

Who here will be able to vote at DL? Obviously me, tp, and the wolves (curse them).
__________________

Firefoot 06-10-2015 12:40 PM
I'll be here at deadline. I'm not sure about Lottie's proposed deal though... weighing the likelihood of one pack taking out the other with there just being one night kill. On the other hand, if the unknown wolf is your packmate I would be willing to deal.


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