So what do we have left.
 

Mac, Fea, Mithalwen, and Nogrod are innocent Gwath - Proved seer so no reaon to doubt.

Issy has cleared Nilp... on the whole convinced of her claim.

So that leaves Durelin, Lariren and Nerwen.

Hmm well I voted for Lari day one but that was a random vote based on the manic early pages.... given my posting today pot..kettle:o I do find the Macanalysis interesting.

Need ot just take a little look ..tbc

A few notes from the voting this far.

What Mac said about Kath's votes on Lari and keeping her known fellows safely on the "not suspecting" side.

The determined defence of Lommy by the whole bunch on Day2. Three ducks voted for Gwath (Lommy, wilwa and Nienna). Also Lari votes Gwath - although in a situation where it looked pretty much certain Lommy would go anyway (and Kath votes Lari early on to the Day).

On Day1 that tasteless Legatewagon should be revisited as well. It was - surprise, surprise - Nienna and wilwa who brought Legate even with... Dury and Lari and basically started the wagon. Brinn and Dury completed it then. Lari had voted earlier, giving Dury her first vote that Day.

It has been indeed the last three Days that Lari has voted quite late and against the majorwagons; on D2 against Lommywagon, on D3 against Niennawagon and on D4 against Rikaewagon. And all those we have lynched those Days have been baddies (well Rikae only a cobbler).

Uh-oh... this is comlicated and messy...

Back with some added thoughts in a minute.

Voted late Nogrod? She must be a duck then ;) :p

Nine people, four seer proved innocents, maybe 6.
But at least 2 ducks and not clear if Gwath saw exact role rather than non-duck. There is another killer out there who may be working on own account.

Also given that we had a guardian amd seer as well as misc. other roles, chances are there is also the other of the classic gifted trio - a hunter. Now if so and the hunter is non-logical or lynched... then we may not have so much scope for getting today wrong despite our success to date.

I am inclined to not vote Lari due to Mac's analysis ... so that leaves me more or less with a coin toss....

I will be consistent:

++Durelin

Durelin's vote-record (and a few comments on Lari as side offers as they kind of presented themselves here):

D1: Last vote to Legate two minutes before the DL, sealing the result which was basically clear already. She could have voted anyone there unless someone who did not vote would have turned in at the last minute - in that situation she could have gotten Lari (or herself :)) lynched as well.

D2: Gives Lommy her seventh vote. Mathematically it's a kind of crucial vote there even if it sure looked like Lommy was getting the axe there... But had the rest gone the other way she could have tried to save Lommy. After her vote there was no turning back.
Interesting thing here is that the next vote - Lari voting Gwath - is a crosspost (same minute) and it could be seen as trying to help Lommy there.

D3: Brings Nienna to the lead in the end of the Day and gives her the killing blow.
Again, Lari goes the opposite direction by voting Mith, bringing her one vote short.

D4: Basically secured Rikae's death. Not that the chances of anyone else to die would have been great at that point but still.
Lari by contrast gives her vote to Dury two minutes before the DL.


So Dury seems to be wherever the decisive votes are being given and her track record is pretty impressive: three baddies from four votes (and the one she was wrong with was Day1).

On the opposite there is Lari who has managed to vote against every succesful lynchwagon.

So very different candidates here.

I'll go and look at Nerwen's record as well...

Oh Mith. Had you seen what I found you might have rethought you vote in the light of what these two - Lari and Dury - have been doing and not just tossed a coin...

Although I must admit Dury's track record is almost frighteningly consistent! :eek:
(even if it's "going with the flow" most of the time)

I am not sure what to think of Izzy's claim. The detail of her claim is convincing, but... How do you know what Nilp is...?

If we've apparently narrowed it down to myself, Nerwen, and Lari, I am inclined to go with Lari because I believe Nerwen's vote for Nienna on Day 3 speaks in her favour of her because Nienna was under quite a bit of suspicion (especially after wilwa being eliminated mid-day).

But then Kath's consistency Day 2 and 3 against Lari is a problem. Both times she voted early, giving Lari her first vote.

A question, though...if indeed everyone is specifically a "known" innocent except for myself, Lari, and Nerwen, and there are 9 of us left (?)...isn't this game over...unless there is in fact a growing flock?

How so? That I tended to stick with suspects? I usually do, I'm just usually wrong. I have done surprisingly well, yes (I have been quite surprised myself! normally I manage to vote for the seer at some point and never a wolf), but I think most of us have done well, haven't we, seeing how many ducks have been in some manner killed? :Merisu:

Making a duck-on-duck is safer if you make it early...

The game ends when the number of ducks is equal or surpasses thew number of innocents - not the orther way around, dearie. :D

But not necessarily in a more serious note either. To be honest, I don't believe it would be that simple: even if all you three were dead I'm afraid we'd not be ridden ourselvers of evil around. But using Gwath's dreams as aids to limit our choices toDay I think is a good idea. And the added limitation of taking Izzy's role for granted and thence her note on Nilp looks believable enough to guide me toDay. But that is toDay.

Interestingly enough the three of you - Nerwen, Izzy & Dury - were instrumental in getting Nienna lynched... You basically did that.

My point was that we have three days to lynch one or two remaining wolves if indeed everyone else except us three is a known innocent. But, they're not.

Okay.

Nerwen failed to vote on Day1.

On Day2 she missed the vote by a minute but the vote was counted - not that it had any bearing as Lommy was lynched with a great majority of votes.

On Day3 she really triggered the Niennawagon.

On Day4 she brought Rikae past Mac and level with Dury to two votes after which the ball started rolling (after my vote to Rikae, Rikae voted for herself and the rest is history).

Were she a duck, she would probably have been sharper in the first two Days - and less sharp in the two last ones.

And she has a planet-sized brain. :)

See?

So I should have done this earlier but needed the time to explain myself fully. I did not find out that Kath was dead and the alpha-duck until the beginning of toDay and I unfortunately have been crazy busy...and was completely unorganized so had to go back through my PMs.

Right. So now that my role no longer has a job...

I am the "Wolf Tracker". Yes, sounds familiar, eh?

No, I am not like a seer (not another one). All I can know is how many wolves there are at a given time. Why would that be useful? Because the numbers in the flock were indeed changing.

On Day 1, there were 4 wolves.

On Day 2, the flock had grown to 5.

On Day 3, the flock was back down to 4, as Lommy was lynched and apparently the alpha-duck was not able to add to the flock (I believe because they either chose Gwath, Mith, Brinn, or the possibly remaining Hunter).

On Day 4 (yesterDay), the flock was down to 3 - they lost 2 during the Day but were back up the three by the end of the Night.

Last Night Kath was killed, and I was notified that the alpha-duck was dead, but apparently she still got her pick through because they are again at 3 toDay.

Yeah, I'm afraid we're not in *quite* as good a boat as we thought we were. But we do know who Gwath dreamt of each Night.

Night 0 - No duck added. Fea dreamt.
Night 1 - A duck added. Nogrod dreamt. Nog was not turned this Night as, since the Night events all happen simultaneously essentially because they all go through unless they cancel each other out, he would have shown up as a wolf if indeed he was turned this Night.
Night 2 - No duck was added. Mac was dreamt.
Night 3 - A duck added. Mith dreamt.
Night 4 - A duck added. Izzy seemed to suggest Nilp was dreamt? If so, then Nilp is the only guaranteed non-wolf, other than Izzy if she's telling the truth, and any remaining gifted(s).

*breathes* Sorry that took me too long!

That would mean the two ducks we're hunting are the two that were created in Night 3 and 4, which would make all prior dreams useless.

Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys. ;)

We can also start thinking about who would have made sense to be turned. Lari, for example, being under much scrutiny and having the role of Kath's scapegoat, looks pretty innocent now.

If we believe the claims of Izzy and Durelin, then our ducks are Fea, Nogrod, or Nerwen. Mith is a dreamt gifted. Izzy cleared Nilp. Lari is very unlikely.

My feeling says that Fea is the innocent one.

Except she would make a good candidate last Night, if she was consistently suspected by Kath and Lommy, both wolves. Though that almost suggests Kath was aware she would be killed. Bah, I don't know.

As are you... :Merisu:

And we're talking about 3 wolves, I'm afraid. :(

Oh yeah. Gwath yesterDay was convinced she was a wolf, and others seemed to be disappointed they could not vote for her as well. So likely she did expect to be killed...at least toDay, not necessarily last Night.

Sorry, I'll stop spamming the thread now. :o

Oh my...

This is getting much too interesting at exactly the moment I thought I was ready for bed as I need to wake up early...

Darn timezones and Saturday exams! :mad:

So I'm not even starting the "why should we believe you as there seem to be a host of special goodies revealing in increasing intervals" -thing. Too late and too little time for it toDay. So looking at the details you Dury give, I'm going to buy it. It looks very believable indeed - like Izzy's case looked like.

Looks like a horrible scenario, four initial ducks and their numbers growing all the time if not hindered...

And you Mac... and Mith as well.

So we went on with the hypothesis of trying to narrow things down toDay and ignore the "added ducks"-theory for a moment. Now who backed that plan or acted on it? Mac, you did. Fea did. Mith did. I did. No surprise there as we were the ones the count would leave out.

But three of them still around? From us nine?

Fea has had three Nights to be added to the ducklist, Mac and I have had two Nights, Mith has had one.

If Izzy (and therefore Nilp) are true, as well as Dury, it would lead to the three ducks being among us four added with Nerwen and Lari. So three out of six. 50-50 chance then...

Needs to think a bit.

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts.

*reads thread*

!!!:eek:

Sorry Nog, I really didn't mean to keep you up... :(

The way Nogrod concludes that Nerwen's votes look innocent makes me think that they might be two of our wolves. Can't come up with much more now, but that's the way my gut tends. Therefore:

++Nogrod

Okay. The question now becomes was the "duck-breeder" able to turn anyone to her cause - or if it is as Dury said that she was not able to turn someone with a gift but only ordos or "neutrals" (whether there are such people around)?

That would look very bad on you Mac. Real bad. And if you're innocent, then Mith might be the one. Your slip here as you wish to get rid of me, Fea and Nerwen? But Mith is no dreamt gifted. She's a dreamt "no-duck". And looking at Rikae who told she could twist someone's Nightly deeds, isn't that exactly what Mith did that Night when she halted the ducks?


Gah! Just saw your vote Mac... Do I have to believe what I just speculated?

Nilp's role was decided? Since when?

Somebody help. Please.

I also think she's telling the truth, because it makes sense, according to some things I know.

*is mysterious*

Kath's dead, though. Dury, will the flock get a new alpha duck toNight?

EDIT: X'd since last post.

Yes, unfortunately I was only told how many wolves there were at the start of each Day, and at the start of toDay I only had the added knowledge that the alpha-wolf was now dead, suggesting that the number is now fixed.

Somehow Kath was not able to turn/create a new wolf on Night 2. Oh. Wow. The wolves also didn't manage to get a kill that night...perhaps that is connected? (Edit: Or whatever Mith's powers are, they are connected?)

I don't think so, simply because the fact that I was informed of the alpha-wolf's death would suggest that the numbers aren't going to change anymore. I'm not sure why else I would be told that. That also seems rather like a hopeless cause if they do...

Izzy claims to be the seer tracker, and that she was able to try and guess who the seer was. She seems to suggest she guessed Gwath correctly and thus learned of all his "past and future dreams", she said. And she claimed at the start of toDay that Nilp is not a were-creature...I guess she claims to know that because of the whole knowing Gwath's dreams thing.

Wow that's convoluted. Course that rather describes this whole game...

(Edit #2: Wow, I can't type...)

Oh dear. Now Mac's a baddie? Or just misled (Mac, you are wrong about Nogrod... or at least, wrong about him and me)

...oh, wait... think happy thoughts....

I mean... uh... YAY!!! YAY!!!! YAY FOR EVERYONE TURNING EVILLLLLL! IT'S SO EXCITING!!!!


Izzy says this–

So she implies she knows Nilp was dreamed as innocent (or non-duck, rather).

EDIT: X'd with Dury; chopped out rest of Izzy's post.

Until he dies, one assumes. Suggests that Nilp was dreamed last Night. Suggests role was revealed even with Gwath's death.

Could be. I suppose.

That would be great, if I could be made a wolf/duck, which I don't think I can. Because I'm the Hunter.

I haven't been around a lot because, well, I've been busy or just haven't had time or been utterly confused by this whole thing. I can't really say who I think looks innocent or guilty.

As for those who I seem to think of as slightly more guilty I'm going with Nerwen because, well, she is hiding something and I can't tell if its a good something or a bad something.

Mac is seeming slightly more innocent as well as Nog.

Agh, sorry Lari... :( But that makes us better informed toDay...

That's what I would assume, too, but...

Knowing player is Not Duck only goes so far. Rikae was Not Duck.

Izzy should share all she Knows. Reveal your role, expect questions.

Details. All.

Too late to worry for safety of others.

Mac actually bothers me slightly because of how quickly he jumped on my info to go straight after Nogrod. It seems he had to make a quick decision before leaving, though, so...

Those who Gwath dreamt of and revealed as innocent yesterDay are the most likely picks for the wolf that was turned last Night, but that leaves two other wolves that were either turned Night 1 and Night 3 or were wolves from the beginning, as the only deceased wolf whom we *know* was a wolf from the beginning was Kath.

I wonder if Nilp is coming back toDay? And I hope Izzy is so she can explain herself a bit better.

Edit: Wow, not that she will have much time to...

Waiting for last five minutes helps only Ducks.

++NERWEN

Izzy did something last Night. I can tell you that much. I don't know what she is, though.

EDIT: X'd with Durelin and Fea.

Noggie, make your vote post within the next 10 minutes or so and go to bed. If you post on the thread after X:42 (whatever hour it is for you) you're automatically modfired (unless you X with me). Then GO TO BED.

Unless only the ducks wait till the last five minutes. ;)

Edit: Oh dear, poor Nog! Yes, go to bed! :(

I have retraction left. Can be used. Trust my retraction, trust Izzy's. Trust Lari, though less. Everybody votes, we loiter.

*sigh*

I'd really prefer not to have to reveal now.

EDIT: X'd since last post.

Funny. I prefer you do.