Hmm, Morm, you seem to bangwagon quite a bit, I've noticed after reading some. Quite suspicious if I may say so.

This makes sense to me. However, while Sally's eminently capable of playing a wolf playing at a Cobbler, I incline to think she isn't, and this begs the question then: do we assume Sally's Cobblery, but let her live, so as to catch an actually dangerous baddie? Or do we go for a more certain baddie, and take out the Cobbler in lieu of consensus on a baddie?

The bet-hedger in me likes the latter, but the village in general (despite not agreeing on who is furry), seems to think we've a good chance of catching a wolf or bear today, and with two deaths looming tonight and the Cobbler being more of a nuisance than a danger, I'm inclined to strike more boldly than my nature would prefer.

A couple questions, here Lommy--which actually might be applicable to the entire village:

What difference, if any, makes you assume someone might be a Wolf or might be a Bear? Because a lot of the gut-feeling suspicion going around might, in fact, be accurate about Good or Evil, but I scarcely see how it can distinguish between Union and Free-Lancer.

Secondly--okay it's more of a comment than a question--I'm rather amused that, since he's the other people who started the whole anti-me waggon, that Morm is apparently coëval with me in your suspicions.:p

I'm sorry about my early-vote again. I always have trouble with deadlines being in the middle of the night. :rolleyes:

++Morm

Popping to the grocery store but I wanted to mention/ask something.

Lommie, the people you say you will vote are the people who are on your wolf list. Doesn't it make more sense to go after your bear candidates first and decrease the number of Night kills? I don't know if it's just me or if that's weird. Of course she's not around but I look forward to seeing her response when she gets back.

Well, although half of the village discredits this reasoning, I think the way people talk about the bear may point at them being the bear themselves. As for wolvishness, it's about being mate-looking with known or suspected wolves. And partly it's just gut-feeling. Like, Rikae, Mac and Durelin all creep me out a bit and they do not look like Alona's mates, so I keep the option of one of them being the bear.

I'm thinking of voting Morm because he's been avoiding the noose for too long :p and his role would undoubtedly reveal stuff.

But then again, I'm not sure if a wolf would insist so strongly on being the Night-kill and I want to lynch him exactly because he could be either a wolf or the bear.

Should I vote Form then? He seems a lot more innocent now that he has come back.

Mira? Sally? Nerwen?

Argh... I'll go brush my teeth and think about my vote meanwhile.


edit: xed with Sally

I'm around yet because I'm slow... (and once I go I won't be back)

I said rather clearly that I want to vote Form or morm because they could be either bears or wolves.

And if I end up voting you, Nerwen or Mira - and not Durelin, Rikae and Mac - it's just because I prefer voting a likely-ish wolf to a possible bear. After all, we're here to eliminate all the baddies, not shoot wildly at possible bears until we run out of people who turn out to be innocent.

Heh.

I'm really not sure I trust this vote, given Nessa's overall quietness in the game, but I definitely like it. And I'm irked enough with Morm I'm inclined to go much the same way myself. Nice to see I wouldn't be alone.

Well, far be it from me to discourage you in voting Morm, but in the interests of fair play, I feel I should say that I hardly see how being a wolf or a bear would necessarily make a difference in claiming to be the Night kill. Indeed, it almost makes more sense for Morm to claim to be the Night kill if he's one of the Wolves, because he (and his partner) would be the only ones who would know it's not true. A bear-Morm, on the other hand, would have to be wary that any future Wolf-deaths did not end up killing on the Wolves who would leave a clear trail back to himself as the Bear.

Or, well, I guess I should say "clear trail insofar as anything in this game is clear"--but I'm sure you all assumed that anyway.:rolleyes:

But does it matter?

He does, actually.

EDIT:X'd with Form.

K, fair enough. I just wasn't sure I understood you so I wanted you to explain before I completely crucified you for something you didn't do. Thanks for clearing it up! :D

I have gotten to this point in reading so far. I know I haven't been around, but it definitely wasn't by choice. I've been feeling a little under the weather today.

So far with what I've read, I'm beginning to have second opinions about Lommy. The biggest thing that comes to my mind at this point is they way she saved Alona on Day 2. There have also been some comments and an overall vibe coming from her.

I still think morm is suspicious. At this point it looks like my vote will either be for Lommy or morm. However I have only read up to this point, so it could still change.

All right. Preliminary vote here, will change if needed, blah, blah blah.

++Morm

1. Because he's too darn edgy by half, even for him, and I'm getting an increasingly strong "killing machine" vibe off him.

2. Because I agree with Lommy that his death will tell us more than most people's (especially mine).

3. Because his name just looks so much better in red. I never thought green was his colour!

EDIT:X'd since myself.

I think it does. If you can distinguish between a Wolf and a Bear--and you've got equal reason for thinking both--it should make a difference, insofar as it seems likely to me that you'd rather rid the village of the Bear, rather than the Wolf. At least, that's what I would think, since I'd prefer one kill per night rather than two, though I suppose it's possible you'd prefer to weaken the team players, on the hope the remaining wolf will eat the bear, or vice versa.

My point, basically, is that it would affect your vote, if you could be sure of the distinction. More likely, I suppose, it's unlikely that you'd get the "all other things being equal" end of it, and either the potential bear or the potential wolf would be a more powerful argument on its own--but not necessarily.

Well, Autume, it is the ultimate question again, would a wolf try to save a fellow or sacrifice her to look better? I think I've done both in the past, there are no clear answers. I wouldn't probably done that to save Alona, had I been her fellow wolf, but I cannot say for sure, and you can't of course take my word for it (especially as I'm unsure myself).

++Formendacil

More innocent right now or not, he's suspicious enough to get my vote. I actually suspect morm a bit more than him, but this village looks a bit like turning into a huge mormwagon (I know, only one vote so far but quite a lot of people are very suspicious of him), so I think a vote for Form should provide an option.

If we lynch Form and he's innocent and later turns out morm was guilty, I'll probably bang my head against the wall.


edit: xed with Nerwen (what did I say ;)) and Form

I was going to ask this of Lommy but I will ask it of both of you now, what pray-tell would my death tell you when I turn out to be an ordo?

I was wondering about these points as well. Just another reason morm looks even more suspicious to me.

Well even so right now morm looks way more suspicious than you. At this point in time I have no desire to start a Lommy wagon. ;)

Edit: x-ed with morm

What am I missing here? Morm was tied with a known wolf twice, and now he's the first to get two votes? It looks like Alona's wolfishness means nothing at all to anyone, since no one seems to be willing to reevaluate yesterDay's suspicions in light of it.

Nessa, Nerwen, do you really think the wolves would have allowed two of their pack to end up tied for the lynch yesterDay? If you think Morm is the bear, do you honestly think it's better to shoot for one of one bear than one of two wolves? Please answer. Neither of you has explained much of anything in this game, and it's high time you did.

Also, I just thought I'd throw this out there:
I think Lommy is the bear.

Interesting thought. For some reason toDay (more recently) I've been getting baddie vibes from her, but I was thinking wolf. What gives you the bear idea?

No you're right of course, I mean I started Day 1 by voting for Hakon, clearly a bandwagon. On Day 2 I voted for Rikae, I might have been number 2, again clearly a bandwagon and it is to be remembered that I had to vote early and leave for the rest of the day to travel across country. On Day 3 I voted for Alona a wolf which also saved myself...very suspicious band-wagonning going on here.

I also don't like the way the group of autume, Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, Nessa, and to some extent, Sally hang together in their votes, do not bother to explain anything, and refuse to absorb new information as it becomes available. This is half the village, and obviously they can't all be evil, but some of them seem to have dubbed themselves unofficial cobblers. None of the morm-voters seem to have made any effort to analyze each other (beyond saying they would) and none seem to even acknowledge that, had a coin flipped differently, they would have let a wolf get away.

Of these, autume seems perhaps honestly misguided, Mira may just be busy, and Nessa is a newbie who might not know what's expected of her (although she ought to, by now), and Sally seems at least more independent, though I'm tempted to call her the ringleader. Nerwen and Nienna, however, know better. They're hiding in a pack, and I know they're capable of more... I can't believe they do so out of concern for the village's best interests.

HEY EVERYBODY!!!! She talked about the bear so she must be the bear herself

*waves arms frantically* Everybody run and hide...

Seriously though Lommy, I understand what you are saying but you keep insisting that because somebody talks about the bear and how they might behave or what not they are likely bear candidates, what about those who talk about those who are likely bear candidates because they talk about the bear?

Seriously are you the bear Lommy, just tell me you know you want to scream it out.

Erm, should I thank you or demand an apology? I'm really not sure.


EDIT: x'd with Morm. Lol.

Rikae you put words to my thoughts exactly. Thank you.

I wonder Rikae are you considering voting for Sally? Sally, Nienna, Form or Lommy are my most likely candidates, it may be necessary to change to save my life again, but it might be nice to get some consensus now if we can. Mac and Durelin what are you two thinking?

Autume is seeming more innocently misguided today especially the more recent posts.

More gut feeling than anything, but also that her arguments seem contrived, she seems less reasonable than I know her to be, and yet she doesn't really seem tied to anyone in particular.
I'm not really planning on hunting the bear toDAY, though. That's best left for later, I think.

Crap. I have to go in ten minutes. I'll be back around an hour before DL, but I've not finished my thing on Nessa. *headdesks herself for messing around so much this afternoon* I'll post the bits from Day One and see if I can finish Day Two before I leave, savvy?

Nerwen and Nienna should know better than to follow your evil ringleading. :p

NESSA DAY ONE


Stealing Mac's plus and minus thing, because....well, it's awesome.

Banter, banter, fluff, reference to an old game, supports lynching an already dying Fea, says that the discussion will probably help people make up their minds about each other. +0

Banter. +0

Makes a good point, and while she didn't say much she brings up....erm, actually an obvious point. One that needed to be brought up, but obvious. But she was trying, so yay for that. +1

Says the surveys are worth looking at but that it's too much effort and she'd rather use (as I put it) real werewolfing skills to figure out the baddies. And Day Ones suck. (+1 liking points, +0 suspicion points)

Yeah, well.... +0

Erm....states the obvious. This post looks so helpful, and yet....nothing. She's saying what we all know is true. -1, because it looks....weird.

Says that she has trouble getting a hold on people and that Rikae is being more helpful than most. Ties to Rikae, in a way. Doesn't want to lynch someone who....I'm getting the impression of who can't talk a lot, but she could also mean people who haven't been suspected much. Promises a list. Again, this is a good post and I understand where she's coming from, but....could she be buttering up to Rikae by saying she's being helpful, for whatever reason? -1

Ahhhh, gotcha. Anyway, says it's too easy to hide behind stupid vote reasons. Also states that she'd rather....wait, she said she'd rather hear from an ordo than a wolf. Well of course. Pretty speech, but words whispered, etc. -1

I know I didn't say it (for the record, Rikae did) but the ordos occasionally need to play tricks too, and often do for the good of the village. Phantom and his insanity, for instance (not in this game necessarily but in others). I agree that we (the ordos) should try to catch the baddies of course, but this seems off to me. (-1 liking points, +0 suspicion points)

This seems like a personal vote but I know it's not. Some wolves are very aggressive (no offense meant to Rikae of course) and Nessa could assume that's what Rikae was doing. At the same time, however, she had previously said she liked what Rikae was doing. Ties to Rikae. Weird for her to flip like that. Oh, and I've done the 'oh look I got a vote yay' thing too but this seems weird to me. -1


For those of you at home, the total so far....

Liking points (her posts, not Nessa herself of course): 0
Suspicion points: -3

Really though village we are on the edge of disaster if we don't do it right today. We have 12 total if we kill an innocent today and assuming the wolves don't kill the bear that is 9 tomorrow with 3 being evil, one more day like that and it's basically over.

Rikae, I am beginning to wonder if we should hunt the bear in more earnest today. If we do get him/her today than we are really well positioned for the coming days to win.

Ahhhh. Lol if I was evil I'd say thank you then. As it is I won't demand an apology either. And really, Nerwen's my biggest fan, so you never know. :p

First: That's a good point about morm. I will have to take that into consideration.

Second: Nessa is raising some flags. I'm not comfortable with her No Vote yesterday. She has been awfully quiet throughout the game. However that may mean nothing.

Third: I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling bad vibes coming from Lommy.

Edit: x-ed with #1220 to here

Have to go, sadly. I'll finish Nessa (that's what she said) when I return. :)

Okay, I guess here's where a distinction between Bear and Wolf makes a lot of sense to draw.

If Morm is the Bear, then relations to a Known Wolf means precious little or nothing. Any association to be drawn would be as spurious as between an Ordo and a Known Wolf--and just as impossible to tell apart from non-spurious relationships.

Secondly, it has happened before that two wolves have been on the block at the same time--an antsy situation for the Wolves, certainly, but not, simply on the basis of that, a reason to discount shared lupinity.

All the same, I think you're right about this mostly removing Morm from the list of likely wolves. But that doesn't mean he's not still suspicious; it just mean that as suspiciou-Morm he's more liable to be the Bear.

Liable to be the Bear, I note, on the grounds that he's suspicious and seemingly not connected to our Known (dead) Wolf--not the more spurious grounds of "he talks about bears so he is one."

You have made a good point Rikae. I do believe there is a wolf in there somewhere. I'm leaning towards Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, or Nessa.

I have believed that one of these are a wolf for a while now. I don't remember if I put anything about some of the people that have been quiet. I might not have after my vote on Day 1. I do think that one of these possibly two of these are a wolf. They just haven't posted a lot for me to get a feel for them.

Edit: x-ed with Form

In other words, anyone but you? :p
What do you think about each in particular? They can't all be wolves, of course.

Those morm suspicions are hard to get rid of, indeed. If I would understand why people think he's the bear, I might get it, but would still think that we have better things to do toDay than chase after the faint hints that the bear might have left. Since I don't understand those suspicions, all I can do is shake my head. I'm particularly worried about Nerwen, who has been casting strange votes for several days now.

I'm at a complete loss as to why Lommy concluded morm was suspicious. I'm also surprised how quickly she adopted my suspicion of Form. I'm quite confident of my case, but I'm surprised nevertheless.

I also don't think that the pursuit of Sally is the greatest idea. She's a cobbler at best, in my opinion.

Since it has been requested, my preferences:
Good idea: Form, Nerwen, Nienna
Bad idea: Autume, Lommy, Mira, Nessa, Sally
Very bad idea: Durelin, morm, Rikae

On second thought, let's lynch Sally for plagiarism! :mad: :p

I definitely feel there is something wrong with Lommy and have felt so from the time she first started posting.

Now the question to me is - go for a simply evil-looking Lommy...wolf or bear, I am not at all sure...OR go with evil-looking with more wolf-y connections. Of course, she did save alona!

While I am uneasy about morm (in a bearish sense), I think it is compeltely bizarre that Nessa, Nerwen, and Form have completely passed over the fact that we lynched a wolf yesterDay! To a certain extent they all seem to be on a different planet from the rest of the game. I get the same sense from Lommy...at least she did an alona-related analysis, though one of her probable-mates was morm...

Anyway, since I know it's a concern... My bear-suspicion of morm began only toDay, I will tell you that. And I do not feel at all confident enough to vote for him.

What's to say? I've only got on in the last couple hours, and Day's well under way. Better to address where we're at, especially if you are a chronic non-analyser of pages and pages of posts.

But... really. Alona was lost in the mess Day 1, looked suspicious on Day 2 and even more suspicious when other people mysteriously appeared to save her (though now that I mention it, why aren't they more suspicious?), and was clearly in danger all day yesterday, died, and here we are.

Well, that's my reasoning anyway...