You have no idea how hard I would kick myself if it were true that the other wolves were the first accusers. We've all been wondering which voting place is most suspicious (I had it pegged as second, since you can't be called on for "starting" the vote, nor can you really be called for bandwagoning), but wouldn't it be a huge slap in the face if it was staring at us the whole time?

However... I'm still not sure about TGWBS. He makes me nervous, but no more nervous than Holby. I was certain that she's Huntress, and yet she denies it. It could be a simple bluff to try and divert the wolves' attention, it could be a wolf messing with us, or she could just be a simple villager and I'm dead wrong. I think they are both forces to be reckoned with, but at the same time, I think that the wolves should be the ones worried, not the villagers.

I also much register concern over Gil-Galad the Thunder Mistress and Adam/Nilp. Nilp is in a far different time zone, so it's fairly late at night for him, if I'm not mistaken. I doubt we'll see him today. But I would hate it if he were a wolf hiding behind geography. Gil, on the other hand, is around, but never posts as long-windedly as the rest of us. Gil, what are your suspicions?

Kath... I'm very worried about Kath right now. If Mormegil is the wolf that I think he is, we've got a very high chance of her being another, or a mytho. At the same time... why would two wolves go out of their way to accuse each other on day one?

Oro is relatively quiet... I don't think she's guilty, but I won't rule it out. She seems so sincere that either she's actually that sincere, or she just wants us to believe she is.

Firefoot... Now here's a dilemma. I believe just about every word she says, and that makes me nervous. I'm usually so careful to be cynically aloof, and yet she makes a lot of sense. If she's right, than TGWBS needs to be watched... very closely.

I don't know what to think any more. The only thing I really feel strongly about right now is Mormegil, and that he's our biggest threat. After him, it's probably Kath, but it's so disturbing what Footie said that I'm really suspicious of TGWBS now...

The Hunter
 

In this post I shall analyse everything durelin said and attempt to come to a conclusion about the Hunter. I have no fear in doing so, for the wolves will undoubtably study the facts too. If they deduce who the Hunter is, it makes sense for us to do so too, just so we have that one known innocent.

This I find fascinating. The first person she mentions if Fea. Could Fea be the Hunter? Certainly she's been the person who has focussed on the Hunter most (claiming it is Holbytlass). I find it very likely.

Note: I later pointed out that my quickness was entirely innocent. However, these accusations tell us that I am not the Hunter, and nor is morm.

Strangely. Oro could be the Hunter.
However, later she says of Oro:So, Oro is probably not the Hunter.

Supports the Fea-idea that Holbytlass is the Hunter.

A potential defence of Oro and Holbytlass, so one of them could be the Hunter.

She voted Kath. Kath is not the Hunter.

So, this is ambiguous. As it is ambiguous, change of plan, I will not decide on who the Hunter is, as this could help the wolves. However:
mormegil, Kath and I are definitely not the Hunter.

The evidence indicates that Oro or Holbytlass is the Hunter. I now lean to the innocence of both, though I feel I will need to verify this by checking up Oro's posts later. In any case, I would take these two to be likely innocents.

Again, I have no fear of doing this as the wolves will doubtless do the same. I am not going to extrapolate further as the evidence is ambiguous, and thus it will be helpful to leave the Hunter for now unnamed. Certainly the wolves will now fear to kill these two, which I deem a good thing.

Edit: Morm's posts next.

I'm so confused... :confused:

The only person I feel any reasonable degree of confidence about right now is Fea. (Heh, she's probably a wolf now that I've said that. :rolleyes: )

On Day 1, Morm is right that Kitanna admits to her accusations of him being speculations (I had missed that, even though I was looking for it). So, what of Day 2? If Kitanna was so suspicious of him, did she dream about him?

It seems to me that Kitanna did not, unfortunatly, come online once she gave her last post (and vote), and so did not find out about TGWBS's plan.

There are four people that I have said nothing of today: Gil, Nilp, Kath, and Oro. I am probably most inclined to think that Kath is a wolf; however, if Kath was a wolf, I doubt Morm is, unless a) they're playing at a bluffing game, or b) Kath was the mytho and turned wolf. And, oddly enough, Morm and Kath are quite suspicious of each other on Day 1, but then... basically nothing. TGWBS accuses Kath on Day 1, then defends her on Day 2.

Also interesting is that both Morm and Kath went onto TGWBS's "probably innocent" list (bottom Page 2).

I'd like to hear from TGWBS... I'm becoming ever more convinced that he may be a wolf, even though his analyses mostly make sense. I'm also starting to become convinced that Kath is our mytho...

Firefoot, I am a fickle person. My theories can change with a single post.

The reason I madea huge about-turn on Day 2 was the death of Oddwen. It seemed to me that the wolves were killing a quiet villager so as not to affect how the village was thinking. This meant the village was thinking wrong, and were accusing innocents. The people we accused most on Day 1, after G-G, were Kath and morm, thus their falling to the ranks of "innocent".

I can't find this post. Please link, or tell us the post number.

Wait a minute...
 

Oh, talk about confusion. It doesn't say what I thought it said after all. :rolleyes: I was referencing this: I missed the word "Durelin" and misread "her" for "his." I thought you were talking about Morm, not to him. :o Well, that eases my mind at least a bit.

Sorry about that.

I'm rather confused as to what this means?

Basically, I thought that TGWBS said:

"Mormegil: does indeed look suspicious, and unless something changes, I for one will be pushing for his lynching tomorrow."

It definitely changes the meaning.

Mormegil... your evidence against our Seer's certainty is even more shoddy (hard to believe, yes?) than mine was yesterday for Holbytlass. And now you're trying to... what? Firefoot misread something. Do you condemn her for it? You're the one who was all for forgiving innocent mistakes a few days ago (remember Gil's over-eager kill-morm-now approach?). It looks to me like you're grasping at straws, trying to take down an innocent with you.

Fea calm down...wait did I ask Fea to calm down? That would be next to impossible wouldn't it :rolleyes: . All I was saying is that I'm confused and I want some clarification so as to not misread it myself.

mormegil
 

An analysis of mormegil's posts. These will be divided into:

1) posts pointing to morm's guilt
2) posts where morm defends others who could be wolves
3) posts where morm accuses others who could be innocent

Posts pointing to his guilt:
As soon as Holbytlass accuses G-G, morm jumps in. However, I also did the same.

Posts defending others:
Firefoot guilty alongside him? I find it hard to believe.
Hmmm.
He also defends Fea and Holbytlass. I am actually inclined to believe all 3to be innocent, but this evidence should not be discounted.

Possibly a warning. "Make sense or they'll lynch you!"

Posts accusing others:
About Holbtylass at the beginning of Day 1. Wolves are unlikely to point t one another so early. This strengthens the Holbytlass-innocence case.

I now think she is most likely innocent.

He later changes his vote to Holby.

From this the only thing I think I really support fully is that Holby is innocent.

Is anyone else not convinced that the lack of conviction in Kitanna's post meant that she actually didn't dream of me? Seriously I want to point out that you are making a big mistake in rushing into this vote (our most critical yet). Based on an uneasy feeling from our seer. Never once did she proclaim me as unequivocally guilty. If she had dreamt of me and was going to die why wouldn't she do that?

She went off before she died and didn't get back until after the deed was done. If she had come back, she could possibly have told us she was the Seer and the tragedy could have been averted. As it stands, she was unable to return and tell us her dreams. However, as I have said, I find it most likely that:

Night 1: Holbytlass - innocent / Hunter
Night 2 - mormegil - werewolf

The conviction is certainly sufficient for me.

Perhaps she was unavoidably detained? However, much as I hate to admit it... you have a point.

EDIT: cross posted with TGWBS

However at the time of her depature she already had 4 votes, a near majority.

If she had dreamt of anybody, which she must have, she should have returned and said they were innocent.

:D :p :rolleyes:

Perhaps she assumed (wrongly, as it were) that we would catch the hint and change our votes, without her having to compromise her safety?

Actually leaving a hint would be a good idea in this scenario. :p

But we were at a stage in the game where we still had our guardian and killing a wolf was essential. She could have said who her dreams were of and dreamt once more and proclaimed it today then the wolves would have killed her tonight but at least we would have a better idea who our friends and foes are.

Handy, but not essential. Now, it's essential.

And nobody else is arguing with what you're saying. She should have told us her dreams. She didn't, and the likelihood is that she dreamt of you and you're a wolf. Simple. Without anything to say otherwise, I'm morethan willing to go on that.

Coming soon... A defence of He Who Is Short.

Upon reflection, I consider changing from "I think these three are guilty" to "He's the guilty one", voting for him against the tide, and saying that she "put her foot in her mouth" as pretty decent hints. Obviously not good enough for us thick-headed louts to figure out, but such is life, yes?

No need to waste your time on that. Nobody listens. I'll simply vouch for your innocence and lead myself to the gallows.

I'm innocent... honest! :P
 

Firstly, and most importantly, I deem, my plan for the Seer to openly declare themself and for the Guardian to protect them. I asked all who found faults to speak, and none did. The plan would have worked. Why would a wolf wantto implement such a plan?

Light accusing? He was in my top three at one point, with Kath and G-G.
I have given reason for the sudden defence above.

Nope, I fully expected to come under heavy fire today, for my choices do seem wolvish, I'll admit. I fully expect to continue to come under fire. Likely I will be spared to the end, such is the evidence that can be accumulated against me. It is foolish to ask of trust here, so I shall not, but I will attempt to defend myself as fully as possible, now and in the future. We cannot afford to lynch an innocent.

As I said, wrong choices in the past meant it would be very easy to look at facts, such as who I wanted to lynch, and use them against me. I knew this would happen (likely started by wolves) and sought to defend myself before it started.

I was the first accuser of Kitanna and G-G, and accused durelin (the death of which seems to be a set up). For a wolf to lead the charge against an innocent once is understandable, twice is utter stupidity.

That's it. Believe what you want. I shall draw my own conclusions too. At the moment, what is clearest and most obvious is the guilt of mormegil.

Edit: Thank you. :) I hope to see the double plus sign followed by your own name soon.

Anyway. I think he's trying to "pull a Holby," to coin a phrase.

Unsure if it's been done but I will take my own life in my own fashion

++MORMEGIL

I have a sword handy I can cast myself upon.

That's 5 votes for me my fate is sealed.

Wonderful. :D

Morm, whatever you do, it is painstakingly obvious that you are a wolf. Nothing you do will change that. Sorry. I speak for myself, and hopefully for the rest of us, when I say our votes will not be changing, no matter how dramatic a show you put on.

I'm not asking you to change your votes. I am merely going to die on my own terms.

In order to save our lovely mod some time (and eyesight) here are the final votes:

5/9 go to Mormegil. Voting for him were: Firefoot, Fea, TGWBS, Holby, and Morm himself.

Your martyrdom is touching, though entirely unbelievable.

Thus we either seal our doom or postpone it.

The only problem with such a short day is we don't get to hear from about half our villagers - four, to be precise, and the very four which we don't know about. Alas.

TGWBS, your defence is fairly satisfactory. I'll be checking it out closer, but for now I'm satisfied. I don't know if I really think you're a wolf or not, but, like Fea, I'd kick myself to find it was so.

I'm thinking to go after Kath tomorrow.

So is everybody, I presume. What is clear is that we cannot make a single mistake from now to the end, or all is lost.

Yet again I come back to find myself under suspicion. I think I might just have to set up some kind of encampment here so I can keep an eye on this.

Earlier I said I would wait for Mormegil's defence and while it is obviously now too late for me to vote I'll just say that I found it shoddy at best. It cast doubt upon our Seer, who may not have revealed herself because she saw that many people were changing their votes from herself to Holby. She left before the votes changed again and so may have thought that it would be safer to stay in the dark and hope that she had left enough hints for us to figure out. Unfortunately we were not quick enough on the uptake and so she died.

Now, as to me. Firefoot says she wants to vote for me and has so far been supported by TGWBS. This worries me as I have been having concerns about TGWBS all day. Firefoot's post ealier (or was it yesterday?) about him possibly playing a double bluff gave me pause for thought. And now today he is going along with her ideas with no reasoning off his own. This strikes me as odd. Perhaps he is trying to put her off his trail? Firefoot seems to me trustworthy, maybe he feels that associating with her will keep suspicion away from him.

If you want a reason as to why I stopped being suspicious of Mormegil it was because he seemed quite so contrite about Gil's death once he realised he was an innocent and then gave him the benefit of the doubt many times after his reincarnation. I realise this has no basis in fact but it threw me off long enough.

Anyway, if it counts:

++Mormegil

First of all, I am not associating myself with Firefoot. I have my own reasons to suspect you, which I have picked up on independantly, and everybody else probably has too.

Secondly, you should be concerned about me.

Thirdly, smooth talking. You go, Girl! Or should that be she-wolf...? :eek:

Patronising the mod may also be punishable by death Grrrrrrrrrrrrr

Do you really thinkI will not read through?

See, this is what I get for sleeping late...
 

Well, I have arrived late and it seems that I've missed most of the action. Fortunately it's not too late for me to cast my vote.

++mormegil

You just seem too suspicious. I thought you were a wolf yesterday (even if I thought you were in league with Kitanna) and you still seem like one today.

Edit: Cross posted with Mith, so perhaps it is too late.

I never patronize. Just simplify. And how could you possibly resist reading through? After all... my posts are mixed in there. ;)

Add to my count two more votes for Mormegil given by Kath and Oro.

I hope Nilp/Adam and Gil vote for me so I can get 100% of the vote.

OK Take that as a yellow card - one more strike and you are out.

Better late than never
 

For one all villagers present were united though this time they did not need force of numbers. Mormegil walked calmly to the gallows. If the villagers felt any compassion for the young girl and the imminent end of her brilliant short life they did not show it. The noose was slipped around her neck and the diminutive body of the girl was released. So small was she that the drop was not enough to break her neck and as the noose tightened mormegil gasped for a final breath. Her body twisted and turned and as it did so her garments were rent as she resumed her other form. Instead of a girl the sinuous body of a werewolf teisted at the gallows.

The other villagers rushed to make sure the deed was accomplished and in death, mormegil resumed her wholseome form.

The villagers had finally killed a werewolf - but was it too little too late.


Night has now fallen.

Wolves (compulsory) and Guardian (optional) should e mail their choices.

While night lasts 24 hours, I should warn you that I am unlikely to be online tomorrow evening, so if I do not receive the necessary communications before 1.45 pm BST , it may be Saturday afternoon before I am online again. Sorry but I have a short notice work meeting and also short notice chance to see a very dear family friend. Given that she is 90 and lives a long way off you will understand why I am not passing up this chance.

Dead

Mithalwen - Killed by wolves
Gil-Galad(1)- Lynched
Oddwen- Killed by wolves
Kitanna (Seer) - Lynched
Durelin (Guardian)- Killed by wolves
Mormegil (werewolf) lynched

Living

Firefoot
Feanor
Holbytlass
TGWBS
Gil-Galad (2)
Kath
Orominuialwen
Nilpaurion Felagund.

Villagers 5 Wolves 3

By the way Morm, i only accused you cause i felt like, i really had no reason, just thought of poking at you and see if you'll do anything...

(too late for that....)

The masque of the rd death
 

The next morning, the villagers gradually emergerd from their increasingly well protected dwellings to find they were again one short. They ran to Firefoots elegant abode (surprisingly some of the guttering was missing from its otherwise immaculate frontage, but anyone who noticed assumed it was storm damage) to find the door wide open. There in the hall, lying on it's square tiled floor at the foot of the stairs, watched over by a series of portraits of garishly clad people was Firefoot. She lay sprawled face down, her blonde hair stained with blood from a severe head wound. They turned her and gasped as they saw her lovely face had been painted with her own scarlet blood. It had been the werewolves, in the hall with the lead piping.

It is now Villagers 4 (inc Hunter) Wolves 3

Dead

Mithalwen - Killed by wolves
Gil-Galad(1)- Lynched
Oddwen- Killed by wolves
Kitanna (Seer) - Lynched
Durelin (Guardian)- Killed by wolves
Mormegil (werewolf) lynched
Firefoot Killed by wolves in amanner tobe elaborated

Living


Feanor
Holbytlass
TGWBS
Gil-Galad (2)
Kath
Orominuialwen
Nilpaurion Felagund.