Since Shasta's posted so little, there's absolutely no way to tell whether or not he's a wolf. I'll ignore my meta-reasoning sense, which would suggest that he wouldn't accept such a hollow victory anway, and instead focus on Mac, which at least can be done (though his post count isn't very, at least he's said
something).
Good stuff
This post seems pretty reasonable:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669138)
It seems like people think of the messages mostly as a means to convey something to somebody else. Don't forget that your message prompts somebody to write a message back. If you send something to somebody you're not sure about, that's a good way to learn (even if they don't reply).
I don't think the information offered in a message is worth much. A reveal might be fake, and any opinions given are probably already available in the thread anyway, or have to be taken with a bucketful of salt. Like Greenie mentioned, as a wolf, I would be nervous to write a message: the risk of giving something away (even if it's just a bad vibe) is not necessarily worth the opportunity to sow some deceit.
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And this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669193)
I know it's not in the intended spirit of this game, but I would advise against too much analysis etc. during the night phase. It really only helps the wolves to sort out their own kill if they know who the inn thinks is innocent and who not. Usually they have some guesswork to do regarding the village's upcoming reaction to the lynch, which complicates their kill decision.
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Of course, they're both points that aren't completely radical, so there is a large probability that someone else would come up with them, yet he definitely posts them firsts. Either this is proof of his innocence or he's going for the "I'll bring up useful points so they trust me." Still, some parts seem a bit too good to be intended evilly, but I suppose that it just depends on how sneaky a
Macwolf is.
Other stuff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669160)
Nog: I can't find a reason to suspect him, which makes me suspicious. :p
Wilwa - re-reading her posts, I think the vibe I'm getting is that of someone who's a wolf and tries rather hard to find something to talk about, so that she won't be suspected for not contributing. (Not exactly the best reason, is it?)
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He's basically saying that there's no good reason to suspect either of the two known wolves, yet still says he suspects them. I don't know whether that's too obvious, but that whole suspecting-yet-defending attitude seems pretty wolvish to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669183)
If Wilwa is innocent then clearly Mac and Inzil conspired to save their packmate Greenie.
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Something about this joking comment doesn't sit right with me. It's almost as if he's specifically trying to show us that he doesn't know. Or, it could just be completely innocent. The second "not rusty" comment just furthers that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669200)
I'm suspecting Inzil quite a bit right now. His vote looks incredibly fishy to me. :smokin:
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Could go either way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669223)
My first impression of the McCaber-kill was that it made sense. Inzil and I look most innocent after the voting yesterHour(???) and were thus likely ranger picks. Unless they thought I was the seer (obviously not the case), it was not worth going after either of us. McCaber looked pretty innocent (I thought), so he was a good no-trace kill, since the only solid thing he leaves is some early strategy discussion and him thinking Inzil and me are innocent. He did also say that he liked Greenie least among the one-posters.
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I'm trying hard not to look at this one biasedly, but I couldn't help thinking of him feeding us his Night-conversation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669223)
Analyzing the voting, I noticed that Nog was in fact only the third person to mention Greenie negatively (Rikae and McCaber did so before). If he's a wolf who knew that Wilwa might be in moderate trouble, picking up on the mild suspicions of others, elaborating on them, and placing a preventative vote, would make sense to protect his fellow. Much more innocent-looking than waiting for a Wilwa-vote and then trying to put up a competing bandwaggon on the fly.
I do like Nog's point against me. It's wrong, but I still like it. If I was a wolf and Wilwa innocent, that's definitely something I could see myself doing. However, I would have been more strongly about telling people to make the tie possible (while hoping and being optimistic that it would fail). Doing wolf-on-wolf in such a situation is an entirely needless risk, though.
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So first he suggests that
Nog is evil, and then says something good about him? This seems to be a pattern throughout all his posts on
Nog.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669314)
When I saw that Nogrod was lynched my first thought was "No! Why?"
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If he is a wolf, this is pretty funny.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669314)
Killing Inzil was the best choice I suppose. He looked innocent, was vocal, and made sense. I don't think they thought he looked seer-ish.
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Another kill-justification. Pretty neutral, considering that that I saw him as an innocent as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669314)
Sad thing is that Nogrod absorbed all attention yesterHour, and focused on Inzil (and lesser: me), so I don't think there's anything pointing towards the last wolf.
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Very sneaky wording here. Again, suggesting his lack of wolfedness, as well as making it seem like Nog wouldn't try to pick out his fellow wolf, which is definitely something he'd do to mess with our minds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669314)
Wilwa-connection? He started out by an assumption (if I'm a wolf), then he starts treating it like a fact.
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The fact that you were the first to vote for her connects you. I don't see the problem here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669314)
While Eonwe lists Nogrod as most suspicious, he still seems most reluctant out of everybody to actually go after him.
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Well that's completely not true. I said he was the one I was most likely to vote for and I did. I was just happy that a Nog-lynch had started while I was trying to articulate my suspicion of him.
Ok, now this thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure
(Post 669314)
I don't see a reason to doubt Rikae's claim at the moment, which means:
Rikae: seer
Lottie: not-wolf
Mac: not-wolf (hoping you believe me there)
Shasta or Eonwe: wolf
Also, two out of Lottie, Shasta, and Eonwe are gifted.
If Shasta or Eonwe is the hunter, he should pick the other one to kill.
If one of them is the ranger and we lynch him, then... that would not be so good.
Barring any more reveals, I'm leaning towards voting Eonwe right now. Of course, we barely heard anything from Shasta so far.
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Ok, so here, while he first just says "not-wolf", later he goes on to say that the other two gifted roles (not the seer- he believes
Rikae) are among the rest of us. Which basically means that he's saying he's the innocent.
Now, I can't see any reason why at this point in the game, the Ranger would claim to be an ordinary innocent. We only have one Night left, and this means that the only choice the Ranger has is to protect the Seer. I mean, there will be no Day after toMorrow, so there is no need to worry. And so, since it's obvious that the Ranger will be protecting
Rikae (which is basically our only chance to have a definite win toMorrow), there is no need for the Ranger to hide, since their power is then basically useless, as the wolf will almost certainly attack someone other than
Rikae. And so, if the Ranger wouldn't hide, and I know that I am the innocent in the game, I'm forced to conclude that
Mac is a wolf.