all this talk of reasoning...makes my head hurt (quite litterally) i voted kath under mild suspicions ...and due to other people talking about her,...makes no sense to vote for someone if your going to be the only one....(like voting for the third presidential party),.....and its not easy voting when your in the back of a moving car thinking the DL is in minutes,..so i hope very dearly that is enough reasoning.
:confused:
i will try to muster up a better reasoning of why i suspect Holby,...right now the best way to put it is a very strong gut feeling.....

Yes, it was the point about Inzil which looked odd there. So your explanation for it is a combination of thinking that it was overdone for Inzil to mention invisibility in two posts as he did, and a mistaken belief that he said a line he didn't. Although in the actual post where you detailed your suspicion, the attributions were clear and quoted in your own post right in front of your speculation, so I think it would be difficult to have been mistaken about the latter.

I find it strange that Inzil reminding people about their invisibility would be taken first and foremost as a likely hint from a Sorcerer-Inzil to members of his pack. The same goes if it's true that Kath was mistaken about attributions and what bothered her was my banter on the topic. If saying anything about invisibility is really that suspicious, I have to wonder why Kath doesn't find my specific reminder toDay to Nerwen about her invisibility to look really bad. (Could Nerwen and Kath be part of a pack?)

That's interesting, because I don't think a remark that is part of someone's rationale for his vote and one of the two points he thought was most suspicious is what I'd call "all but throw-away". You do seem to be distancing yourself from your remark at #54. Blimey if I can tell whether it's sorcerous distance.

Let's see, before I get back to my analysis I think there were a few more things that people were asking me.

Legate looked okay to me aside from the one point that looked really bad, which meant that there was a risk of him being a confused innocent who had just failed to explain himself. In retrospect it would have been better to give him the benefit of the doubt for the Day. All the same, I don't regret placing that vote, because Legate was still the person I suspected the most at the end of that Day.

And I find it interesting that you think that that point about Lommy was something I should have mentioned when explaining what I think Holby meant when she was saying it looked as if you and Legate were bandwagon jumping.

I considered voting for self-preservation. However, before I voted, the only person I was tied with was Kath. Although I thought that Boro had a point, it wasn't enough for me to vote for her. Also, Boro had posted very little, which left me unable to make any sort of conclusion about his guilt or innocence. My suspicion of Legate was much stronger.

Okey pokes, here is the post which caused me such issues. I have bolded the sentence that threw me when I was thinking about the implications. I read it back to myself as 'Inzil said this in response to Cop' rather than 'he said the above after Cop posted this'.

And in looking back I noticed something else. Holby still has not explained her list, despite requests and even a bizarre interpretation by Echo. I am getting a little fed up of having two players who seem totally uninclined to actually respond to anyone else.

Oh and unless anyone comes out to refute it I am willing to accept McCaber's claim of being lover. Assuming this means he is now on the side of the village entirely then please McCaber vote toDay so we have no modfire of an innocent!

Sure and that's fine. But other people had been talked about at that point as well. So why were you quite so determined about me? Legate was being talked about in particular - you didn't even mention him. Greenie had a couple of mentions etc.

So you were writing a post overNight? I always consider that a little suspicious, although I know by now that innocents do it too.

Now I get to do the quoting and awwing thing:Aww thanks!

Don't forget the option that the lovers are some other people entirely, in which case it would actually be a rather clever wolf ploy to claim to be the lover of the innocent Day1 lynch (or Night2 kill for that matter).

You people are thinking in weird ways, this scenario for example would never have occurred to me. Which - justified or no - makes me think this is actually what happened last Night between the wolves.

Getting more and more baffled about Echo.

To be fair, Echo did answer me when I asked them about their reasons for suspecting Holby and now they explained their vote yesterDay as has been requested several times.

Anyway, I'm currently entertaining thoughts of a Coppermirror-Echo-Nerwen pack, but it makes little sense as Coppermirror would hardly have told a packmate on the thread to go invisible as she could have very well said it during the Night phase. But Coppermirror and Echo could be packmates based on what Cop speculated about packmates giving advice to Echo last Night. So I don't really know.


edit: xed with Kath's last

I have formed some kind of an opinion on Cop - or, at least, I have a pretty shrewd idea of what she's said and done. I can't claim the same of many others. I was talking about how I'll try to use my time, not who I'll attempt to fry. I may fry her still toDay, but concentrating on one person only has rarely ended well in my experience so I'll try to look at other people too. Does that make sense to you?

That said, I'm off to try to be a man of my word and do some rereading. Back soon!


EDIT: x-ed with Kath and Lommy

Oh, and I forgot to say that I believe McCaber; if he's a wolf he's insane.

Actually writing a post overNight wouldn't explain that since Legate was a lynch and not a Night kill.

What? I'm confused about lover rules in general, but I don't get this point. If the lovers are some different people entirely, then surely even if they haven't found each other yet they'll be able to do the math and realize that both McCaber and Legate can't be lovers if they are, too, so they'd know McCaber was lying. Which would make it a pretty risky lie to tell, I think.

That doesn't really work, because the theory of packmates giving advice to Echo last Night was based on there having been no Night phase in the beginning of the game, and if there was no Night phase, Copper actually couldn't have said anything to packmates before the game began. So that means that this obstacle to your theory actually doesn't exist! :D So yes, theoretically Cop and Echo could be packmates.

Doing a little bran exercise
 

Likely packmates
- Copper and Echo (what I said about Cop speculating about Nightly talk)
- Copper/Holby/Eönwë and Kath (any of the three could've been trying to save Kath yesterDay)
- Lottie and Echo/Holby (she's giving them free passes a tad too happily)

Unlikely packmates
- Echo and Kath (the witch-hunt and the latter's frustration with the former - I feel that is Kath was Echo's packmate, she'd rather try to encourage/tutor them than just straightaway give up on them)
- Boro/Lottie and Kath (both clearly put her in the risk of being lynched yesterDay)
- Copper and Nerwen (the invisibility thing would make no sense)
- Echo and Holby (or then I'm not giving Echo enough credit, but their jump on Holby toDay is quite aggressive to be wolf-on-wolf)


edit: xd with Greenie's last

But, if one of the Lovers is killed before they find each other, they remain an innocent ordo in things like narration and to the seer. Do we really gain something by voting for him now?

If you're innocent and you weren't thinking about that scenario and associated points, you're worrying me, Lommy. If you're a sorcerer, then that was a canny comment to make, to cast suspicion on people who are trying to work out what the sorcerers' plans are likely to be.

I may make a post towards the end of toDay explaining a bit more about what I think you're overlooking, if I don't have to leave earlier than that, because there are some things you really ought to have in mind toDay.

Edit: crossed with Lommy since #166.

True, but I doubt the lovers would want to reveal themselves by pointing fingers at McCaber. But I still agree it's much more likely McC is telling the truth, also based on meta reasoning.

What? No! Cop's point was that Echo's more "reasoned" behaviour toDay could be because of packmate briefing last Night and that the briefing couldn't have taken place before Day1 because the game started with a Day phase. My point then was that Cop sounds almost like she's telling what actually happened last Night in the wolf PM discussion ergo she and Echo are wolves.


edit: xed with Copper

What?! Why?

True... so he started writing it yesterDay before DL but didn' post it??? Confusion.

because i didnt care about legate and i still dont he didnt make me suspect him much.......as for greenie,.....well ill save my fingerpionting for later,..
of course you probebly want an explenation for that last sentence,...ill get back to you on that.

No no. I wrote that post toDay and posted it when it was done - I just asked that question of Legate early on and forgot to go back and change it.

No need to panic, I'll explain before the end of the Day if I have time, even if I get lynched. There are reasons why it should be then. If I don't have time and I get killed, it's my devout hope that somebody else will be able to explain the point instead the next Day, since I think it's a point that people should at least be aware of.

Now this is very mysterious, and I hate to say more in an innocent than in a guilty way. And I was almost convinced I was going to vote Cop toDay! Will have to think.

hmmm interesting,..but sorry doll.
and the part about me and holby,...that was cute,..i laughed :D

LOTTIE
(Not including Serverman banter or other irrelevant stuff)

The first actual impressions on people, early on Day 1, are that she feels "pretty good" about Cop, is shaky on me but leaning innocent, and thinks my Rule of Three squabble with Legate looks innocent-on-innocent. Lommy strikes her as "a little less innocent, but nothing that shoves her into 'terrifying sorcerer' territory just yet". Has no read on Zil, Kath or Nerwen.

Then, speaking about Kath accusing her of refusing to make a statement:
Finds Cop's reaction to the whole "my tone looked off to me too" -discussion "wonderfully innocent" and is fairly certain Cop is innocent. Is also "leaning innocentish" on Legate, though with some reservations.

Then moving on to her famous vote post:
I get Boro's (and was it Shasta's?) point about this looking as if she was relieved about the choice being limited. However, in light of what she said prior to this, the vote makes perfect sense. Kath was the only one she suspected anyway, whereas Cop and Legate were ones she had specifically mentioned looked innocentish to her.

Moving on to toDay, she suggests that a quote from Inzil might have been taken for a Seer hint or else that he was a no-trace kill. I don't really buy the Seer hint theory but it doesn't really tell me much about her innocence or guilt.

She thinks Echo comes off as a nervous newbie (though "frustratingly and purposefully vague") and is willing to extend his newbie pass. Holby alarms her, but she "gets the impression that's just her style". These reactions look to be following the same trend of being noncommittal and diplomatic that Kath accused her of yesterDay.

She then argues slightly with Kath and revises her opinion of Holby, saying she isn't sure anymore. She ends the post with
Which is pretty much what I was thinking, too: where is this Kath suspicion coming from? Apart from the one post on Day 1, she doesn't really give reasons for her consistent suspicion of Kath. I hope she returns to elaborate!

And in her latest post to date, she comments on McCaber coming out:
Which is more careful than most others, but seems sensible for both innocent and wolf.

Conclusions? On the whole, I think Lottie looks pretty innocent. She is at times over-diplomatic and her Kath-suspicion is a bit odd, but her general behaviour especially yesterDay seems logical and sensible. She's down to the Relatively Small Fish -category with Steve, I'd say.


EDIT: x-ed since Lommy's 172

Well I am going to have a look at everyone now and then probably vote.

Nerwen:
Well my suspicion yesterDay really was fairly tenuous as I said. ToDay I think she did a fair analysis of Inzil and while I do not think it would be so easy to decide he might be the Seer the things she found were fair indicators if you were looking extremely hard. She has suspicions of Lottie and Cop - largely centred around the way they responded to Inzil's death. Has ended up voting Cop with rather tallies with the way her suspicions have developed. I see nothing concerning in her posting toDay.

Cop:
Well now. I quite like that she's arguing back. :D I do like a good debate.

A pity about Legate. I can see how that happened now and I really should have known better.
I requested clarification.
Legate looked okay to me aside from the one point that looked really bad, which meant that there was a risk of him being a confused innocent who had just failed to explain himself. In retrospect it would have been better to give him the benefit of the doubt for the Day. All the same, I don't regret placing that vote, because Legate was still the person I suspected the most at the end of that Day.
It really is generally pretty suspicious to be a large part of someone's death and then basically say 'oops shouldn't have done that'. If you suspected him most at the end of the Day then you could not have known better at the time. It's just weird.

Then of course there is my mistaken attribution of that post. Now that I have rediscovered that it was Cop then obviously my suspicion surrounding this comment moves to her.

To respond to Cop's question about why I found her previous comment about invisibility suspicious but am happy to ignore her direct comment to Nerwen, it is because her previous comment appeared to be directed towards the wolves. Saying directly to Nerwen that she is visible is a very different kettle of fish (to steal a metaphor from Greenie).

I call Boro's statement all but throw-away because it was put in rather at the last minute. Oh, that one thing she said in that one post is also weird but I'll come back to it with more time. He's hardly spent hours over it.

Lottie:
So Lottie said that Greenie and Legate would not be a wolf on wolf argument but rather an innocent on innocent one. If we have a wolf pack that includes Lottie this would suggest to me that Greenie is a packmate.

Her 'Seer hint' about Inzil is weakly reasoned. I feel she could have done better if she was really looking for hints. Nerwen found a few better examples. So perhaps a wolf who knew this was not the reason they had killed him.

Greenie:
I already said I don't think Legate did flip flop within his post but that obviously is in the back of my mind about Greenie.

Also she just feels to be slipping past without me noticing her. Everything I read gives me this feeling of vague suspicion. I don't really have time to look into it now but I will come back to it toMorrow.

Lommy:
Feels innocent to me toDay.

Shasta:
Currently I feel is innocent, largely due to his forgetfulness around Legate!

McCaber:
Counting him as a known innocent now.

Boro:
Given that he has gone for the Day I am willing to give him a pass for now. I would like more time to converse with him. Plus his big post had some good reasoning in it that made him sound much more like the usual thoughtful Boro.

Echo:
Has begun to at least respond to what he has asked. If he does later come back and give an explanation for that comment about Greenie then I will be much happier about him. If not, well.

Holby:
I am very unhappy about. If a complete newbie is now posting more sense than someone who has been around for a few years? It is very worrying.

Eonwe:
Am still fairly happy with him for breaking the tie yesterDay.

My current feeling is some kind of Lottie/Copper/Greenie wolf pack. Not sure about the Greenie part because she is flying under my radar and I will want to take a much closer look at her toMorrow.

I am going to post then vote.

It's hardly very subtle. Whatever her intentions, she wants us to remember it.

This actually seems to be a general theme with Cop. Most of her early early banter was very weird and far too real to be able to be passed off as real banter when it should have been, and not serious enough when broaching important topics. It still doesn't sit right with me.

edit: x-ed with Kath.

I don't know whether this post should make me feel more confident or wary, because this is exactly the pack I'm thinking of.

edit: though Cop's most recent post is making me doubt it a little.

Man, it seems being out for the first Day and a half really did a number on my investigation skills. Holby is looking suspicious, Lommie's looking innocent, and I'm looking out of time to make a choice.

I'll probably vote Holby unless something happens in the next half an hour. But knowing how ends of days work, something probably will.

++COPPERMIRROR

Based on all previous suspicions mentioned.

Most mysterious, like Lommy said. Now trying to decide if it's in an innocent way or if it's a bluff.


EDIT: x-ed with McCaber and Kath

Time is getting on and if I'm not careful or anything extra comes up in real life we'll be at deadline before I've finished my analysis for the Day, so I'm going to go ahead and post a quick list now.

Probably an innocent:
McCaber. If he's not, then the real Lover could easily come forward and will probably do so toMorrow at the latest. If Legate was the real other Lover, then a wolf doing a fake reveal would have to be relying on either the real Lover already having left for the Day (for example, Nerwen or Boro) and the sorcerers killing them in the Night, or for it to be Inzil. That's got to be the maximum risk scenario for the sorcerers, and it makes sense for the Lover to come forward ASAP.

Feeling okay about
Shasta - I'm finding his posts and logic easy to follow, and have yet to notice anything suspicious about him. This doesn't mean he's innocent, of course.

Unknown and very confusing:
Holby - I don't have nearly enough information about her, although her later posts are clearer than the first ones.
Echo - Ditto.

Neutral
Boro - Seems fairly well reasoned, and hasn't said anything suspicious of note, but my goodness he could seriously be going under people's radar.
Lottie - Likewise could be going under the radar, except that some people have pointed out that they think she seems like an observer. This could be true. Both Lottie and Boro are pursuing what I think is sensible wolf behaviour and should definitely not be written off as suspects.

Concerning
Lommy - Would have been on the "suspicious of" list, but if she was a sorcerer, I don't think she would have lessened her suspicion of me in her post at #178. Rather, I think she would have taken the opportunity to become more suspicious. But there are still things I'm worried about, and she could just be a very clever sorcerer.

Suspicious of
Kath - I don't like the way she dismissed Boro's vote as throwaway.
Nerwen - didn't vote on Day 1 and didn't make a lot of firm suspicions. I've still got an uneasy feeling about her.
Greenie - Seemed to bring up Lommy earlier on in an irrelevant way. It's unlikely that both of them would be wolves.

I can't help but note that most of the people I'm most suspicious of have been pretty loud. I don't like this. This is one of the natural problems with Werewolf, because it's entirely possible to set a bunch of noisy innocents together to tear themselves to bits while the real wolves are quiet in the background.

Really really really worried about:
Eonwe - he didn't post much yesterDay, and, probably due to time constraints, didn't complete his analysis to the point where it was up to date. There's too little info about him. If he's a sorcerer he really hasn't left much of a trace at all, and that is dreadfully dangerous. But there's nothing to support a vote or draw firm suspicions from.

Edit: cross-posted since Lommy at #178.

Mainly gut-feeling - a couple of her posts have nudged me the wrong way. I mentioned Day 1 that some of her reasoning felt forced. Nothing concrete, but enough to keep me wary.

List time:

Likely Innocent
McCobbler
Nerwen
Greenie

More Innocent Than Not
Cop
Echo
Boro

No Read
Steve
Lommy
Shasta
Holbytlass

Could Be Evil, Maybe
Kath

I might vote for Kath, but not if it'll be a throw-away. Otherwise, I'd prefer my no-reads over the ones I feel better about.

++NERWEN

Like I've said earlier toDay, there are little things in her behaviour that bother me and unfortunately that's the best I've got as I've started wavering on Cop, I don't feel like I can trust Boro on Lottie and Echo and Holby are still quite enigmatic.


edit. xed with Loss Nech

Or could be the case for Cop herself. She was acting a lot more suspicious yesterDay, and toDay seems quite different. She could have been re-evaluating her style on her own, but it's also very possible that some of it is the product of a Night-discussion. And if I'm going to run with the Greenie-Cop pack (I know I said Lottie as the third, but that's more because she seems suspicious in her own right and I haven't had time to analyse her with regard to the other two), there are definitely a few times when I've got the feeling that Greenie is gently brushing something Cop says or does aside than contesting it.

There is a possibility I'm doing something incredibly stupid here, but I don't really have other suspects, except that something probably needs to be done about Holby or Echo or both at some point if they keep confusing everyone at this rate! But I won't vote for anyone on Day 2 solely for being confusing. Anyway, have to get going now, so

++ Copper


EDIT: x-ed with Lottie, Lommy and Eonwe

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it the vote count is:

Boro -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Coppermirror
Kath -> Coppermirror (2)

And with Steve, Greenie, Lommy and Eonwe various different degrees of really suspicious of me. I would really hate to be lynched by six people in a row because of how easy it would be for sorcerers to hide in that.

Edit: crossed since my last.

Oops, Steve and Eonwe are not different people. Scratch that.

Seem pretty good
Shasta
Kath
Lommy
McCaber (for now)

Don't particularly suspect
Boro

Something dark may lie beneath
Nerwen
Lottie

Suspicious
Cop
Greenie

What!?
Echo
Holby

So... when are you planning on doing this?

Eonwe, if you've decided on a vote, if it's me I want you to tell me it in advance before you send it.

Now this is serious.

Now would be okay.

My point that Lommy didn't seem to have realised is one of the biggest advantages the village has in this game, IMO, which is that it started with a Day phase. This means that although the sorcerers probably knew who the others were, they had no time to talk to each other and make plans. After Night #1, they are likely to have made contact and plans. They have a potential weakness in the switch between those times. This is something that innocents should be watching out for.

That's it, it wasn't a big thing, but it was something Lommy missed. I think it may have been covered by someone else in the meantime.

Deadline is in ten minutes. Try not to kill any- wait.

Okay. Well. At the moment, Nerwen and I both have one vote, while Cop has three. I'm going to

++Holby

Because I find her somewhat suspicious where I definitely don't find either Cop or Nerwen suspicious, and I want to put up another candidate who has a chance against Cop. I'm off to a nice dinner with the boy. Have a good Night, everyone.