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++Firefoot
Since my last post (or was it the one before that?) it's occurred to me that huge analyses are an easy way for a wolf to hide. Though Firefoot's been giving her opinions, not just summaries, she's giving them in large doses, so people might be less likely to be able to pick out wolvish hints. |
Gah. Don't have the time for analysis that I hoped. So...just a vote.
++Formendacil |
Um...that's all of eleven votes. That leaves...what? eight villagers unaccounted for? Where are you all?
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You know, whatever else people may think of me, analyses are historically the way I go... just because I don't do them on Day 1 for lack of evidence...
Ang – 1 (Morm 1) Lalaith – 1 (Findeasea 2) Firefoot – 2 (Lhuna 3, Caran 10) Formen – 2 (Lalaith 4, Jenny 11) Holby – 2 (Rune 5, SpM 6) Jenny - 1 (Kath 7) Lhuna – 2 (Glirdan 8, Ang 9) Yet to vote: Taliesin Form TGWBS Gurthang Diamond18 Firefoot Holbytlass Durelin Yeah... not comfortable with this at all. I'm here till the deadline; still not quite decided about my vote. Formen and Lalaith are both likely candidates but if I have to vote Lhuna or Holby to save myself I will, even if I won't like it. |
I suspect a flurry of last minute decisions is in the offing...
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Only 15 minutes left to go... somehow, it seems that there will be several people not voting toDay.
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:rolleyes:
Everyone should know that waiting and watching people for as long as you can until the end of the Day is the best way to go. People tend to do the oddest things around then. Though Day 2 is a little early for anything really spectacular, much less entertaining. So far all I've noted is mostly just annoying... |
I'm sorry I am a bit distracted at the moment, so it'll be just a vote with reasoning today. I hope I can be a bit more around on the next day.
Lhuna has been making a lot of claims without actually reasoning why, perhaps that's her usual style I don't know. But it isn't really helping me trying to figure things out. She could very well be the reason behind the Eomer kill aswell. ++Lhuna Just an update on the voting: 1. morm-->Ang(Ang 1) 2. Fin-->Lalaith(Ang 1, Lal 1) 3. Lhuna--Firefoot(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1) 4. Lalaith-->Formendacil(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1) 5. Rune-->Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 1) 6. Saucy--> Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2) 7. Kath --> Jenny(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1) 8. Glirdan-->Lhuna(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 1) 9. Ang-->Lhuna(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 2) 10. Caranlondien-->Firefoot(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 2, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 2) 11. JennyHallu-->Formendacil(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 2) 12. Taliesin-->Lhuna(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 3) |
I just got back. I'll try to catch up as much as possible before I vote.
It did just strike me, though. I'd really like to hear more from TGWBS. He's barely said anything, and I'm not sure any of it's very constructive. |
++Holbytlass
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++lhuna
self-preservation |
Gah! Five minutes till the end of the Day and we're at a standstill...again....
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Odd, I haven't been able to follow as much but our voting choices seem interesting. I think Holby more guilty than Lhuna, but perhaps I missed something today. I haven't kept caught up on the last 10 hours of stuff.
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Well, now I can at least feel safe voting the way I had been intending to... I don't think either Lhuna or Holby is a wolf and am glad I don't have to vote for either. Even if one of them seems guaranteed to be lynched, there doesn't seem any way for me to change that. I doubt Formen will pick up the necessary votes.
++Lalaith |
Decision time.
++mormegil His early vote for Glirdan yesterday was not in itself suspicious, but the fact that he continues gunning for him today is really odd. I also noticed that he said nothing against Anguirel (well, I just skimmed quickly, but I didn't see anything.) yesterday, but suddenly came out and voted for him today. He might be the seer, but I just don't think so. I see that Lhuna and Holby are the likeliest choices toDay. I don't really think either too suspicious, but Holby's vote just now did raise my eyebrow. I'll be looking at her tomorrow, if she survives. |
So many last-minute, scantily supported votes. This will be a mystery to puzzle out next Day...I sincerely hope we've caught a wolf in Lhuna.
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Day's over now. Please stop the last-minute voting. Lhunardawen's death will be up within the next hour. :)
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Day 2 Events
The day seemed to both start and end in a haze.
"I am confused," began Firefoot, observing the freshly killed Eomer of the Rohirrim. "Well, I am not," said Glirdan. "Oh no. Must mean I am sobering up." He went in search of some rum immediately. "It's all her fault anyway," said Formendacil childishly, pointing at Lhunardawen. "You are all wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong. It was Anguirel," said Mormegil. "Nonsense," commented Anguirel. "I really think it's the whale hunter," said Sir Horatio thoughtfully. "She is obviously trying to be helpful and contributive. Highly unfeminine." "You know, I am the Seer, the Lover, a wolf, and the Hunter," said Dread Pirate Roberta quite non-comittical. "And an Ordinary Passenger too." "I am confused," cut in Caranlondien. Towards the end of the Day, it became clear it was going to be a race between Holbytlass and perpetually sick Lhunardawen. After a few last moments of horrible confusion, Lhunardawen was eventually picked as the guilty party. "That seasick act is just a cover," Taliesin grunted. "Green is obviously just the natural tone of her skin." Lhunardawen was pulled from her favourite spot near the port side railing. When Gurthang and Durelin approached her, she looked up. "Are we there yet?" she wailed piteously. "Not exactly," said Gurthang with an uncomfortable grin. "But you are not going any further." "Oh good," Lhuna started to say, when she realised the horrible implication of Gurthang's statement. The passengers closed in on her threateningly, ensuring the suspected wolf could not escape. "Dead by drowning," spoke Lhuna in a low voice. "Typical." "Yup, rotten luck," said Taliesin, as he shoved her over the railing. After a few moments of helpless paddling, Lhuna went head down into the deep. The passengers waited until Lhunardawen surfaced again and to their great surprise, she looked calm and lovely, serene almost as she drifted there. Not in the slightest bit green or sickly looking. It seemed that although she had to die to achieve it, Lhunardawen had finally gotten her sealegs. "I am confused," repeated Kath. Lhunardawen had been neither evil nor not-as-innocent-as-she-appeared. She was an Ordinary Passenger. --- Captain Cailín's Log At least I can stop worrying about the hygienic consequences of having barf all over the ship. Signed, Findëasëa ~The dead ~ Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1 Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1 Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1 Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2 Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2. ~The living ~ Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor Caranlondien -- ships's bartender Holbytlass -- whale hunter Findëasëa -- Occupational health and safety specialist Kath -- plotting slave JennyHallu -- Dread Pirate Roberta Lalaith -- Football Widow Diamond18 -- Weslamond, the Dread Pirate Roberta's protégé Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates Gurthang -- Plank Operator Formendacil -- Ne'er-do-well stowaway of snobbish, blue-blooded origins Rune Son of Bjarne -- crazy slave, with an obsession for cheese Mormegil -- the vocal nitpick who can find fault in anything Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel) Glirdan -- drunken porter Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short) Night 3 has now started. I need names from the Wolves and the Seer and possibly from the Hunter. |
Start of Day 3
The wolves killed JennyHallu (i.e. the Dread Pirate Roberta) who was the Hunter, and she took no good Formendacil with her, who was an Ordinary Passenger.
Day 3 has now started. Narration will be up later. *hic* ;) |
How positively exciting!
If I were more conscious, I'd come up with a theory and astound you all with my brilliance. Alack. |
Major OCC - Hey! She stole my line AND my rum!! :p
Oh great! Another death that was actually more random than not....or is it? Isn't it true that Jenny stated yesterDay that she was the Hunter...and the Seer...and an Ordo....and a Wolf....and the Lover....ah you get the point. Anyway, is it possible the Wolves actually believed she was the Seer and decided to go after her on that assumption? Hmmm....I wonder... Now I shall depart. Without having rum around, I'm starting to feel queasy...I'm going to go lay down... RL (again) - I'm suddenly not feeling well and I need to go relax. I should be back later on. |
Ack, we are down another two valuable passengers, one of whom was our hunter. I was really surprised to see that Lhuna was lynched yesterday. She was acting strangely, sure, but as some of us discovered recently, an absence of strange behavior would indicate guilt much more strongly. I am going to go back and review the actions that resulted in Lhuna’s death for clues.
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TGWBS, please, by all means do return more conscious. I am growing weary, and wary, of your lack of input.
Thankfully, it is the weekend. I should be able to look more into morm, Guy, and maybe Holbytlass. |
Glirdy - you earlier asked what I meant by "glirdan = not sense." A post you had made earlier concerning Nilp voters didn't seem logical to me. As I expect weirdness from you, I presumed, and still presume, you to be innocent.
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So Jenny was the Hunter – I suspected as much. It was also fairly likely that her hunt would come off the list she posted yesterday…and that Form was her most likely victim. So, of course, as Form was not a wolf, the wolves knew they were probably safe to kill her.
I cannot blame Jenny for suspecting Form, I did so myself. (Particularly as I had no time to formulate any new suspicions before voting.) However, after his total non-appearance yesterday, I did wonder if his detachment was genuine rather than affected, in which case he was probably innocent. I’m in the middle of writing a long post about my thoughts on everyone, which depending on time I will post either tonight or when I wake up tomorrow. Oh and while I don’t usually defend myself over-much against accusations as in my experience it’s counter-productive, I can’t resist a little exposition on the subject of Findeasea’s suspicions of me. Because, for philosophers, it is such a classic case of rationalism versus empiricism. Fin is clearly a rationalist. She has a preconceived idea of what a wolf is like, finds I fit that idea so ergo – I’m a wolf. Now, rationalism has a fine tradition but I have always found its epistemological rival, empiricism, to be a more flexible and useful reasoning tool. That is I like to observe, and apply my knowledge and experience to those observations, drawing conclusions post priori rather than a priori. Wolves come in very different shapes, sizes and disguises, and we need flexibility in our thinking to catch them. |
Jenny as the Hunter really is not that big of a suprise after yesterday, that she chose Formendacil on the otherhand was a bit of a suprise to me. I know she voted for him, but I would have thought the hunter would choose another than the one they voted for. Well another thing is, it really does not help me. (might be usefull for you, but not for me) The few posts where I realy noticed Formendacil, he seemed to make sence. Because of this he was low on my suspect list.
I will start by commenting on something said after I left yesterday. Quote:
I don’t know why Glirdan’s memory is different than mine. It could be because my last game was quite good or it could just be because he missed me so much that all his memories of me have changed to the better. . . This might not be a big thing as everybody has a different view on each other and one self. I am actually quite flatterd by the whole thing. For now I don’t have a prime suspect, but as I will have to cast my vote early. I shall try to be as productive as possible while I am here . . |
Yesterday's voting:
Ang – 1 (Morm 1) Lalaith – 2 (Findeasea 2, Firefoot 15) Firefoot – 2 (Lhuna 3, Caran 10) Formen – 2 (Lalaith 4, Jenny 11) Holby – 3 (Rune 5, SpM 6, Durelin 13) Jenny - 1 (Kath 7) Lhuna – 4 (Glirdan 8, Ang 9, Taliesin 12, Holby 14) Morm – 1 (Gurthang 16) Did not vote: Form, TGWBS, Diamond With four wolves and a lover still here, we now have a 5/16 shot at catching a wolf (since the wolf dies with the lover). That's pretty good odds... which is good and bad, I suppose - good because we have a reasonable chance of catching a wolf, bad because it means we haven't caught any yet... I don't know how much I'm going to be around toDay (long story - issues...). |
Lalaith- I agree that flexibility is essential toward the discovery of a wolf. You do have a fair point, my suspicions of you originally did have a root in preconceived ideas of how a wolf may act, as you first seemed suspicious to me on day one, and there was very little to go on besides such notions. However, I feel that my vote on day two was not, as you seem inclined to believe, based on following a rigid formula. In the specific situation that presented itself yesterDay, it makes sense that a wolf should follow the behavior pattern that you did, there was no reason for a wolf to risk themselves, you voted safe and stayed out of the spotlight. As you might have noted from my analysis, I spent a good deal of time yesterday reviewing the actions of as many players as possible and attempting to find evidence of wolfish behavior. I may be missing the finer point that you were trying to make, but it seems like you are trying to dismiss my suspicions as flawed and thoughtless. Please know that I would not have voted for you if you did not seem most suspicious to me.
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Not at all thoughtless, Findëasëa. As I said, rationalism is an honourable epistomological tradition, and you are free to vote for me on whatever grounds you like. I'm not a wolf, of course, but then, I expect most of us are getting it wrong in these early days. I was totally wrong about Form.
Indeed, most of us clearly are getting it wrong, as we haven't gpt a wolf yet... |
Oh, and happy birthday, by the way. :)
(Oh dear, I'm always doing this in WW. I was mean to Jenny on her 21st. Of course, she *was* a wolf...) |
Alas.... I'm crushed. I guess Jenny's death makes me the Dread Pirate Roberta now. (That's how it works in The Princess Bride. Though, technically, she should have retired to enjoy her spoils instead of been rudely mauled to death.)
Only, I'm not up the task. I've been debating a little here whether I ought to refrain from voting toDay and let some ModFire take care of me. Because I can tell you pretty surely that my participation isn't going to get any better than it has been. I knew before signing up for this game that it wasn't the best idea, due to RL timing, but the lure of pirates and lovers and it being Cailín's game made me ignore my smarter self. Thing is, pride is still making me ignore my smarter self. :p I don't like the idea of having a withdrawal or a ModFire death on my record, so to speak. But then, I really don't want to be lynched, because I'm damn proud of my "never been lynched" record -- and hanging about not participating and throwing up votes just to stay in the game is a good way to garner an "ire lynching." So what to do.... what to do.... Um, would you wolves believe me if I said I'm the Seer and kill me? No? Well, it was worth a shot. I think I am going to vote. Just because I actually have a suspect, oddly enough. You see, all I've really done is read over all the posts once -- and I can never do anything smart if that's all I've done. I have to at least re-read the whole game once or twice, and preferably analyze individual players, and most preferably have some kind of whack theory to view things through a la tinted glasses. But I've either not had the time, or when I have had the time, I've been much too preoccupied and neither my head or my heart have been in it. So this pretty much means that I don't have any opinions about anyone (seeing as I hardly remember who made what posts, anyway.) But the one exception is Saucepan Man. His posts have made me feel uneasy, and the fact that most everyone else is putting him on their "likely innocent" lists makes me even more uneasy. + + The Saucepan Man And no, you're not going to get any solid reasoning, because it's pretty much a gut thing. I'm comfortable making this vote because, even if I am wrong, the likelihood of a bandwaggon forming off my vote is pretty slim. My impression reading through was that the majority trusts him. For what it's worth, I don't, and I don't think anyone should, but you apparently do, so oh well. Oh, and I'm not a wolf. I think it's fairly obvious and this is why -- wolves don't make petty kills at Night. Unless they're very, very stupid. And while I have been too preoccupied this week to play the game the way I ought, I'm not that stupid. Neither is Lhuna, which was why lynching her was, yes, stupid. :p You're not going to find wolves amongst people who petty/grudge voted against Eomer, because those are not the same people who as wolves would have killed him at night. Now, people who voted for him for other reasons, I really can't say, though I find it doubtful. So, I haven't really decided what to do but I don't want to definitely exit myself from the game just yet. Hence the vote. This will be my last contribution for the Day. Next week will be rather busy for me (I have this silly idea to cram multiple trips to Summerfest in between my two jobs, haha haha haha) so I may just ask Cailín to off me anyway. I guess the only thing stopping me is a dislike for the idea. I'm kind of hoping that by sticking around I'll at least boost the Innocent numbers for you, even if my personal contribution isn't good for much else. Of course, if everyone just screams at me to get my useless rump gone, I suppose I could do that as well. *shrug* |
PS -- I second Lal's birthday wishes to Fin. :D We really should have a birthday thread, just like the deathday thread.... Oh well, a thought for another time when I don't have people nagging me to get off the computer. :rolleyes:
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Finaly a post with a bit of substance from me! (I hope it proves useful
TGWBS
Has a strange Day 1 vote, but most of us did. Then he has his for me really weird post about sense and not sense are both good. Now it seems that he is not conscious! I don’t know why I did not notice that he had hardly posted at all. Anyways I normally don’t like when people post that little, unless there is something in there posts that makes me “trust” them. That was the case with Lhuna and therefore she didn’t even make my list of people to watch. The fact that I really like playing with Lhuna might have had some influence as well. (Lhuna is often the person who I understands the best) TGWBS on the other hand does nothing to make me trust him, he comes with some very confusing statements and that is it. I really dislikes this because that makes him really hard to get a read on and I don’t like having people like that in the end of a game. (this is why I normally vote for Wayne early on) There is a chance that he may just be an ordo acting weird for some reason I don’t know, but I also see it as definite possibility that he is a very bold wolf. Should he turn out an ordo it is a loss that I for one can live. Right now I don’t see any potential in having him around. I am not very demanding and I am not saying that he should come up with a brilliant post for me to not vote for him. I am just asking for him to post a bit more substantial so that their may be something to judge him by. If nothing changes while I am sleeping, he is very likely to get my vote. Glirdan He is very difficult for me to classify, he has not done anything that is overly suspicious, but I find that he has some weird comments once in a while. Then he has his analyses. Although SPM did not find them overly useful, I was kind of pleased with them, the ones that focused on the individuals that is. They were not the greatest in the world, but it was better than anything me and a lot of others had come up with at that point. Then he has some kind of theory about how much people post! Although I my self get suspicious in the extreme cases, I did not see how that could be really useful, as I see it it could be interpreted in a 1000 different ways and really did not help one bit. This is a thing that makes me slightly suspicious of him. It could be a wolves way of contributing with something that points in every direction and therefore is likely not to lead anywhere. It would also work great if the wolf would be lynched, there would be nothing to go by. (on that single post that is). So all in all Glirdan seems a bit suspicious, but for now he is not troubling me to much. Mormegil and Anguriel As I said earlier I believe that there is a good chance that one of them might be a wolf, but I still don’t know who. I will wait and see what happens; there is still a couple of things I need to get cleared before I can make a judgement. The thing is that Mormegils is so sure in his accusations (which if true is brilliant spotted, I might add) that it makes me think that it is either an ordo who has noticed something who is very wrong in the behaviour of another player, but it could also be a wolf who has been studying each post for the slightest contradiction and then jumps one it when found. If nothing new happens I will probably have to go back and look at some of the old games for some clues. Holbytlass I still think that she has a lot more potential than she is showing and therefore I am suspicious. However I don’t think that she will get my vote today. Firefoot Pretty much removed her self from my list of suspects yesterday, as I found her contribution extremely useful and I could follow her reasoning most of the time. Well those I haven’t mentioned I think innocent for now. Some because they make sence other because I they have done nothing to make me suspicious. (that does not mean that I always understand exactly why they are doing as they are) Man this took a long time; I should have been to bed ages ago. I will return tomorrow with a vote and then be gone for rest of the day. Cross posted with Di and I don't know what to think of her post. |
Well, I'm not surprised that Jenny was the Hunter; it seemed pretty obvious to me from her certainty that Nilp was innocent. Things are looking sort of depressing for us right now...
Firefoot's post after I voted for her yesterDay has comforted me somewhat about her. She responded but didn't overreact. I haven't had time to go back over all of yesterDay's posts yet, so forgive me if this is explained elsewhere, but tgwbs - why didn't you vote? Of course, I'm tempted to excuse him just for that, because I don't see a wolf being so bold as to skip out on voting... but I have to agree with Rune that tgwbs is unreadable. And maybe he would be that bold. In any case, he's being unusually quiet, and it's making me nervous. |
:o
Serves me right for not checking the main thread; apologies, tgwbs. My comment about quietness, though, still stands. |
I'm back and I have things that I want to adress.
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Must depart for a time being. |
Well, I see I'm not the only one who isn't sure about Guy. Rune makes some good points about him being unreadable, though.
I won't have time to look back at those I'm suspicious of until about four hours before deadline. Hopefully, I'll be able to look through the whole thread and find something. |
I really hoped that something would happen while I was sleeping that would show me who to vote for, but now I cannot wait any longer.
++ the guy who be short You can find my reasons for doing so in my last post. (234) |
Durelin -- Innocent
Caranlondien -- Innocent Holbytlass -- Unknown Findëasëa -- Innocent Kath – Likely innocent Lalaith -- Unsure Diamond18 – Possibly guilty Firefoot -- Guilty Gurthang -- Guilty Rune Son of Bjarne – Unsure Taliesin – Unsure Saucepan Man – So many things I could say but won’t. I could think either way on him Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel) – Uncertain but possibly guilty Glirdan -- Guilty Friedrich Engels –(TGWBS) Guilty I still hold that Glirdan is guilty and being alive today on solidifies my belief. I think that the first night Glirdan went bold and killed off Eomer but when it was generally believed that I was not the seer he didn’t kill me because it would only make him look real bad. Glirdan is the type that will take some small risks, killing Eomer, but won’t go for the gusto, killing me, because that would be killing two people who suspected him in succession. Quote:
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Rune just has the feel and seems to follow what I would expect in him being a wolf. TGWBS, when innocent tends to demand things like answers and responses but he seems detached and I think so because he's possibly guilty. |
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