... I have absolutely no idea who is evil. Day One's are always really hard as no one has really had time to act suspicious and we don't have votes to analyze.

The bonus votes are going to prove interesting. Both baddies and innocents have reason to use them or to save them... so that could be tricky. It may be more benificial to just see who is throwing their weight around where and then speculate.

And as a side note... is deadline in 3.5 hours or 15.5?

Edit: x-ed with Kuru kindly answering my question without even knowing it :-D

Indeed, if we were taking a conservative, least chance of disaster route today, I would only consider Alonariel, as she has shown no indication of being present or will be present. I believe everyone else on the list has at least made it known they are here and able to participate (now or during Day -1). 99.9% certainty we won't get a wolf, but we would avoid taking the bigger cost in lynching someone in Alonariel's place. Let the wolves make there move and come reconvene tomorrow with some more info.

Sorry I haven't really been around yet. Internet trouble. I'm at work now, so I can't stay, but I'll try to stop by and vote later.

Let's see
 

Brinn's first post is slightly unnerving. I don't know why. Her first posts always are.

I'm watching Kuru.

Kent who is in your avatar? He looks almost exactly like a guy I went to school with.

Nog looks quite innocentish. Or rather, genuinely helpful. It's impossible to say anything concrete yet, though.
Form talked about Day -1 behaviour. I assume you're not going to analyze that? :p

Firefoot I'm fine with bonus votes being saved for later. But that means everyone, or at least most of us, should do it. I don't want a situation to occur where there are a few people with almost all and some with almost no votes left.

No - we get a baddie (ie wolf or cobbler) with 23.5% certainty. And actually it's even more likely since their behaviour can give them away. ;)
I can't say I really like your suggestion. The result of today's lynch is a part of the information we will have tomorrow, and it reveals more if we don't take the easy route and kill a non-show. Or well it's also that you suggested it so early and in that way.

Hmm almost 24 hours have passed and four people haven't spoken yet. Do you Elmira people have any idea about Alonariel?

Some things about the rules.

Gríma doesn't have a way to communicate with the baddies in private, but his ability to make gifteds fall ill makes him more dangerous than a normal cobbler. That's why I think it's as important to find him as the wolves. Also, the seer can't find him and should keep in mind that one of her known innocents might in fact be the cobbler.

I wonder why Elrond & others decided to send Pippin here. He doesn't seem to be aiding us.

I'm here and reading... I mean, processing the events of the day. :D

Lari should be yelling at her as we speak.

But you always vote for me on Day One. Why not try something a little less predictable? :p

I was thinking I would have to vote now, but I see that Day 1 is 36 hours, so NEVER MIND.

I, like Aganzir, disagree with Kent's fatalism regarding our chances of finding a wolf toDay. That kind of attitude effectively ruins any chance that we do have of lynching a wolf toDay - and it does occasionally happen. Kent says let the wolves make the first move, but I say BAD IDEA. They'll make a clean, trace-less kill toNight, and then we'll still be starting from scratch toMorrow. We need to start actively hunting the wolves now, toDay.

Let's see...

In general, we should save the bonus votes for late in the game and for when we are nearly certain about a player's alignment. No gambling unless it's absolutely necessary.

Ok, have to go. More later.

UPDATE: Alonariel is having internet difficulties and will hopefully be around later.

Agan

Toby Flenderson, he's the HR manager in The Office (the American version), played by Paul Lieberstein. He gets treated so bad, I feel sorry for him. :(

I would like to clarify I think both you and Gwath have misinterpretted what I meant by this:

I did not mean that I am 99.9% certain we will not get a wolf today, I meant that I would consider voting for Alonariel, based on not showing up yet, possibility of a modfire, but she is most likely not a wolf. It would be a conservative move that would prevent us from lynching (or signaling to the baddies) someone we would not want to.

I am not throwing away today, if you want to look at some information look at the responses regarding the bonus votes. I'm still trying to figure out "the Machine of werewolf," but I have noticed a couple things...

When there is a new feature (from what I understand this is the first time bonus votes have been used?), baddies will openly speak about how to use the new facet to the game, or how a wolf might use the bonus votes, when they would use them...etc. Amongst the baddies too there might be a consensus to strategy/using the new feature.

I also posed the question to see if anyone would make a rehearsed, almost robotic response, as if someone has been discussing bonus votes with buddies for the past 36 hours and has "the answer." Frankly, I have no idea how I'm going to use my bonus votes, but I figured it was a topic of discussion amongst the wolves and thy vampire, so if someone had what looked like a rehearsed answer to the question, that would make me wary.

How do you exactly propose to track them down?

It would be the easiest thing in the world not to leave any sort of traces.

I dislike the implication that we can't trust the Seer and I don't particularly care for much side distraction off the main course of killing wolves/bat.

One has to ask themselves who would be the most interested in getting us skeptical of the Seer and us not focusing on the wolves. Answer, the wolves.

That's a bit of an over reaction to Agan's pertinent point that the Seer will find Grima to be an Ordo. I didn't detect any implication of distrust, it's a relevant fact.

Oh yes, we've had this discussion before... Nilp and I are not quite parallel in our Day 1 attitudes, but we're on communicable wavelengths.

The difficulty with analysing Day 1 is that there's a continuum problem about WHEN it's worthy to start analysing. Do you start with the first vote? Chances are the vote is completely random, given the limited number of wolves (who have clear knowledge of whom they should be trying to kill) and the complete lack of votes before that to compare it to. Should it be after the first analytic post? Seems silly--the post will just be analysing silliness.

Basically, my point is that, in general Day 1s are really not going to reveal anything significant until AFTER Day 1 has ended. While still in the process, Day 1 is inevitably going to have so many unknowable variables that it is essentially worthless to make a serious effort to analyse it during its course. It's only, perhaps, in the last hour or so, when the votes coming flying onto bandwaggons that there's much to grasp for analysis.

Of course they would--but Day 2 is significantly different from Day 1. On Day 2 we have a Nighttime kill--or NO Nighttime kill, if the Ranger-figure of the game has done his/her job. This, and the total accumulation of Day 1 actions is where I put the bar for having sufficient action to analyse.

We can, of course, stop the Disney talk and go on to something else... I'm just not convinced that this "something else" has any merit at this time.

With sound reasoning? Then the Wolves were slipping up majorly, or else everyone knew each other too... and I'm not seeing evidence of either yet.

I fear you have taken my previous statement in a more serious light than its intended (if not evident) sarcasm intended. The 'Downs is, indeed, full of quiet, sweet, bookworm ladies. And this game is not lacking either.:p

So. I intend to go to sleep very soon. The problem is, like the problem on Day 1s tends to be, that I don't know who to vote. I've been trying to look for patterns in what's going on. Haven't found much.

What struck me as interesting is that even with this little going on Agan and Kuru manage to sort of cross-suspect each other. Considering the amount of material there is to derive any sorts of opinions on, it seems weird that those two should so neatly have little suspicions of each other.

Also, I am slightly worried by those people who haven't showed up. Alonariel has trouble with her internet, fine, but where are Sally and Lari? Does anyone know about them?

Anyone around?

I like Gwath but I'm not sure he's innocent.

How does not showing up make her innocent? Unless you have some special knowledge of course. ;)

Yeah there might and they've probably discussed it, but quite often the wolf strategy is simple as this: "Let's be as normal towards one another as possible and react to situations like we'd normally do and think about all this stuff later when it's more actual".

Everybody should open their mouth so we can see who has a forked tongue.

And risk getting killed by his own team? That has happened before.

I've been a wolf in a game where the seer couldn't identify the cobbler, and he was one of her known innocents when we killed her. Unfortunately for the village, we knew his identity by then and naturally left him alive to seal our victory. Pretty, isn't it?

If the ranger-figure does xyr job, we have two night kills. ;)

I think it might have something to do with what kind of titles we give to our posts... ;)

I'm off to bed now. I have no idea who to vote so I'll go by instinct alone and vote

++Aganzir

I dunno - there is a chance my sort of bad feeling about Agan is just due to the fact that I disagree with her a lot. I hope it isn't. I have little to say about anyone else. Kent, Form and Gwath seem okay this far. No one stands out as suspicious.

Good night.

I think you give Grima too much credit, Agan. According to the information posted on the the side of the wall; Grima can only make a gifted fall ill - once.

I think those infected by the evil orbs, might be smoother this time around. Since they can converse with each other any time they want. Whether or not that will lead to a big difference and change; with harder and possibly easier hunting in some regards...

I don't think we should be overly focusing on the extra votes.
We all have them - check.
Not everyone has the same intentions - check.
No one is infallible or omniscient - check.

There are too many variables at this time to try and lay out a course of certain action in regards to such votes and usage. If we were all machinery and programed with a certain task in mind, with no possibility for deviation - then I suppose then we could predict when the best time would be to use them. Here, not so much.

X'd with Agan and Greenie

This is the quietest Day1 ever! Sadly I'm not in a position to make it much more livelier as it's midnight here and I have an early morning call. But I've read the latest and need to give it some thought.

Anyone else around?

EDIT: My question seems to be answered with a couple of posts...

Okay. I see what Greenie is after and I think she has a point there.

Also I don't like some of Agan's comments - like the two last ones from her post just there. The comment itself is like the rules are, but the smilie there? I wouldn't think it a fun thing we lose Finrod.
That same wink again. Maybe we are talking about Grima here sending messages to Kuru whom she thinks is a baddie?

But that's quite wavering as yet and I'm not sure I'd wish to vote for the person who has been most argumentative and active from anyone of us here toDay. Given the slender weight of these suspicions, that is.

So what, like 50 posts in 28+ hours! And half of the Americans are having computer problems? A few haven't even showed their noses around? What is this?


Okay. I'm going to take a risk now. My work starts at the DL but I will try to wake up a bit earlier than usual and read the thread and vote then.

With this information I could as well flip a coin but that's against my principles.

*looks tragic*

Ah, kill me, Greenie! Then at least I may follow Thinlómien, whom I loved above anything else in this world!

Anyway I don't like Greenie's vote, and not only because it was for me. She says she disagrees with me a lot, but I haven't spoken a lot yet, plus she has mentioned barely any of those reasons.

Yes if it was only that I'd probably be giving him too much credit. However I don't want the cobbler to be a known innocent if the seer dreams of him and that's the main reason I brought him up.

An assumption, based on the ModGod's selections, and even though there is an understandable reason, there has been no appearance at all - through Day -1 or now. So, why choose someone to be a baddie if there's a reasonable chance to believe that person can't be here and if said person can't be here will be modfired?

Aha, see you said there might be, which means there might be good info to find in people's responses to the bonus votes. I might be new to werewolfing, but bonus votes are new to everyone, and no one should have any idea on the way you best use them. But the wolf team has had lots of time to talk about it. So, people's responses about them are there, now go see if there's any good info there.

I would, but I should get back to studying for my Macro exam in 40 minutes and I have no idea how people play; style and personality I would assume is a factor in this place too.

I also think this is a rather odd comment, seeing as very few people actually are giving titles to their posts... Kuru has yellow boots as an icon on all of his, which seems rather innocuous, but there are only about two or three posts that actually have titles. Agan, what are you getting at?

Essentially, I think Kent's theory is sound that the wolves might have a canned response to the bonus vote question... but I definitely think it also ought to be taken with a grain of salt, as I imagine most of the people here have thought about it at least a little bit and had a general idea going into the game of how it might be most useful. Besides, the success rate at spotting "canned vs. candid" isn't always that great...

Are those two supposed to mean the same thing or is it like "in addition to the things Greenie noticed, there are also these comments"? Because I don't see what she is after. She seemingly started suspecting me before those comments you mentioned.

Hey a wink doesn't mean I find something funny! It means nyeh-nyeh Form has got confused with the rules.

You didn't bother to check those titles now did you? Let's see, my first title was Eek (which, well, was just a random title). Kuru's first was If you can't beat em, join em... My second was Let's see. Surprisingly, Kuru commented on my random cobbler speculations in an accusing tone. Am I still too obscure?

Okay I'm slow because I'm busy on MSN at the same time.

Don't count on that if it's not known how the roles are given. They might be randomized or hand-picked and we wouldn't know. Or do you have some first-hand information about the ModGod's selections? Like, not two newbie wolves. :p

Oh I didn't mean to question your logic, it was a fair thing to do. To me it just seems unlikely that the wolves would be careless enough to get caught by that, or that they'd be the only ones to think about that in advance.

Of course not. It wouldn't be smart to completely trust someone simply because they turned out innocent in a seer's dream. And while a cobbler can be potentially dangerous, I think it'd be better to not worry ourselves about the dreamt innocents and focus on the unknowns since the cobbler does count toward the innocent tally in the long run. The best we can hope for is that the baddies accidentally kill their cobbler. Now if a known innocent is acting obviously cobblerish, that could be a different story depending on what the village/baddie ratio is at the time.

Btw, Greenie's vote doesn't count since it isn't highlighted, if someone wants to let her know that (though I assume she's fast asleep by now).

Can you explain what you mean a bit deeper here, Kent? More specifically, the bit about "the ModGod's selections." To the best of my knowledge (granting that my knowledge of the Admin thread is not infallible), I don't think the phantom has stated anywhere what sort of manner he would be using to assign the roles. Granted, this doesn't mean that he took dice or some other random method to assign them, but I tend to assume that as the normal way for assigning roles. Of course, it HAS been quite a while since I've been immersed in WW culture.

Furthermore, insofar as the Co-Mod seems to be personally apprised of Alonariel's situation, it seems that the phantom would have known at the time of assigning that she would probably be involved in the game, and though she's the most obviously absent person, at least she has a confirmed excuse, which the rest of our mostly-missing members do not.

Of course, I suppose you could be basing your assessment of the phantom's assignation of roles to the one you received, but I'm baffled as to how I should interpret what that would mean.

EDIT: X-posted with Brinn and Agan

Now, Aganzir, that's not very nice! Are you a bit sore, m'love, that you're not my ideal soulmate?:Merisu:

I texted her.

Possibly. :Merisu:
You know there's this poem by Leonard Cohen: "I'm good at love, I'm good at hate/ It's in between I freeze." :p

What?

You've posted a ton toDay (at least by toDay's standards). Not that this is by definition a bad thing but...I don't know, Aganzir is striking me as awfully fishy.

Unfortunately, due to my schedule today I'm going to have to vote now.

++ Aganzir (0)

Out of everyone toDay she seems to be acting the most suspicious to my mind. Its not because she's been talking a lot, its that some of the things she's said haven't made much sense and she's been rather inconsistent.

Okay I have posted more than most, but I hadn't said almost anything of substance when Greenie started to suspect me. Really. Her suspicions came out of thin air.

Elaborate.

I hate justifying a vote by throwing around some random generalized half-accusations.

Caught up on events.

Shall let Nienna catch up while I think about what I've read.

I might want to vote and go to sleep in an hour.

I'm thinking of voting for Kuru. With my normal vote. I'm not that enthusiastic about getting him killed or saving myself.

It's mostly the title of his first post. If you can't beat em, join em... It has nothing to do with the content of the post and looks like a cobbler hint. I can see an innocent posing as the cobbler in order to confuse the wolves (I've been thinking about it myself, too), but in the long run it's not of much use as it will confuse other innocents equally.

I always get into arguments about the importance of finding the cobbler, but Kuru's response to my comment about it seems weak. He indicates that the cobbler wouldn't want to leave traces although in truth it's probably quite the contrary. Normally the cobbler would like the wolves to guess his identity in order not to be killed by them.

And when I said it's as important to find the cobbler as the wolves, I didn't mean finding Gríma should become our prior task. ;) I've just been in too many games where everyone has said "we can take care of the cobbler later" and so the cobbler is never taken care of.

Also, his post #229 sounds... forced. Or detached. Like, "Ha if she was a wolf she wouldn't question me like that, therefore she's a safe vote, hmm what reasons could I come up with?"

Of course the bad thing is that so few people have posted enough substance for me to form an opinion.

So just because I'm not here it means you people can slack off, eh? I think not~!


*whips you all into shape*


Get to work baddie catching, slackers! I need to scamper around and listen to what's been said toDay before I decide who to vote for (or rather, against) but I shall be in your midst until the close of the Day.


:D

*am now all caught up*

Ok so now that I've read everything so far I still have no real suspicions.

Nog was vaugly making me a bit nervous if only because he was so insistent on us all begining to start theorizing and discussing but this may be just a normal Nog thing to do.... I don't know but it just stood out to me.

Agan seems like she is acting cobblerish because she is discussing the role a lot but it also seems like she could be the focus of a bandwagon which never really ends well...

Kuru's post title thing that Agan brought up was a good point though I don't know if it means anything or if it was just in fun...

I will refrain from voting for newbies or from people having internet trouble for obvious reasons. I should be around till deadline or at least near deadline so I will continue to watch and see who's up to what... I have no real strong inclinations for any voting yet though.

++Agan

I don't know how to take this. She defended her smilies/winks, but they seem so awkwardly placed. Like, every time she's talking about bad guys. Or maybe it's just jumping out at me and doesn't mean anything. But asking if she's being too obscure... It's the first day. Who hints at things on the first day and then points to it? Or, who doesn't hint to things, but doesn't clarify when people think she is? Or...

All in all, of everybody, I feel worst about Agan.

Formendacil
I don't know how each person chooses to operate, but from one of the places I did read where the roles were selected from a mix of random and picked choices. I don't know anything about the phantom, but from the structure of the game, it looks like he wants a thoughtful, strategy based game. There is the new addition of the bonus votes, the evil and good roles have slightly different abilities, or extra powers available than the traditional roles. So, I assume he would want to see some of these new facets used and how they are used. If someone did not show up to the Day -1 portion, I would wonder if they were still in or not.

This might all be moot now, because it was before all the revelations about technical problems. I am not saying anyone is using it as an excuse (there is a nasty computer virus travelling around the US - I remember it was on the West Coast I think 2-3 days ago), just saying I was going by the rules that if someone does not participate/vote they are modfired and was wondering if we should lynch someone who is going to be modfired, because that would theoretically give us extra days.

I really don't see anything cobbler about Agan, but this is Day 1, so anything's possible. I agree, however, that this bandwaggon is somewhat distressing, as bandwaggons on Day 1 often are. Under other circumstances, it's possible I'd be inclined to go along with it, simply for lack of any better reason to vote, but in this particular case it doesn't sit right with me.

Granted, I suppose I might be a bit biased--Agan has indulged my silly side the last couple Days, but I'm willing to vote elsewhere simply on the basis of rewarding Agan for her entertainment value.

My general principle at this point (ie: the point where I've no good reason to vote for anyone) is to vote for the players that I can never, ever, make my mind up about. The players around here that fit this bill best are probably Nogrod and Shasta.

But I'll readily grant that's a sorry reason to vote for anyone in such REAL circumstances.

Grr
 

Oh really? I can't see how you came up with that "every time she's talking about bad guys". I talked about baddies without using smilies and used smilies without talking about baddies. That's quite a far-fetched argument.

Is there still someone who didn't realise I was suggesting Kuru was giving cobbler hints? I would have expected everyone to at least notice that post title. That question was meant in an ironical way. Because it seemed nobody understood what I was talking about.

I have a feeling everyone is misinterpreting me on purpose!

Nog I'm starting to understand why you tried to be quieter on day ones.

Sniff.

edit: xed with Form & love him again.

Fair enough... I am mollified, I guess, insofar as I don't know you, so I can't distinguish between newbie covering (especially since, were that so, you could assisted by PMing with the other Wolves) and honesty--but at for know, I'm mollified. Though, I suppose, if you are a wolf, and you die, we should be looking for people who posted on this thread between those two posts to find someone who potentially might have been a PM partner.

Hmm... that might actually be an interesting gambit: lynching Kent to see if he's a wolf. It's tenuous grounds, to be sure, but that's sort of the prevailing atmosphere.

Kuru
Funny thing is, if I were to judge you, Kuru, based on your reasons, you're suspicions aren't making much sense.

You don't provide any examples, I get the feeling a lot of vague blanket accusations are tossed around on Day 1, but I would imagine any person who is innocent and genuinely wants to help has a logical reason for suspecting someone as "feeling strange" or "not making any sense."

But I don't know what about Agan isn't making sense? She's explained the title thing, she made a perfectly relevant statement regarding the seer would find Grima an Ordo. The only inconsistency you pointed to was in your first post, about Froldo or whoever.

I don't agree with everything Agan has said (as evidenced by our interaction today), but we should make a clear distinction between disagreeing with someone, and someone "not making any sense." Then saying that not making any sense = baddie.