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Azaelia of Willowbottom 09-08-2005 04:53 PM

So sorry, I was at school and then had a meeting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sauce
She was the first to suggest that Alcarillo was responsible for TGWBS’s death (executing a frame-up plan?) and led the calls for Alcarillo’s lynching.
She hardly ever accuses anyone except the person she votes for.
She has voted for two known innocents.
She seems to have been the phantom’s only real suspect. Was he getting too close for comfort?

I know I've looked far too suspicious over the course of the game, and I did indeed vote for two "known innocents"...but the thing of it is, no one knew that Alcarillo and Bergil were innocent at the time. (Except maybe Phantom, but we'll never know that for sure.). I never accused anyone except for who I voted for because I voted for the person I found the most suspicious. If you go back to my post about Alcarillo after TGWBS' death, I did suggest that it was a frame-up plan.

Actually, I had (and have) absoloutely nothing against the Phantom . I know that fingers are pointed at the wrong people all over the place in this game. I was not concerned that he expressed suspicion of me, since everyone else has, too.

If an innocent is lynched today, the were-villager ratio is going to be really unbalanced. I am particularly frustrated because I am innocent, and it seems that the "Kill Zali" bandwagon is picking up steam. If you want the weres to win, by all means, lynch me. I'm not at all gifted or a werewolf/bear...but that is a threat. If I die, the rest of you innocents are facing a rather bleak future as a village. Please. Just consider it.

The Saucepan Man 09-08-2005 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Azaelia
If you go back to my post about Alcarillo after TGWBS' death, I did suggest that it was a frame-up plan.

Of course you did. You wanted to be able to point back to it in case it became an issue, as you have just done. But the very fact that you mentioned it, right there at the beginning of the Day, strengthens my view that you were one of those who conceived it as a plan.

And your attempt to appeal to those yet to vote reeks of a Wolfish ploy to escape the noose.

Why do you not vote now to save yourself? Or is it because your Wolfish pal, Glirdan is also facing the gallows and you are waiting to see whether anyone else is going to vote?

Gil-Galad 09-08-2005 05:04 PM

you know what i realized? The Saucepan Man has always been the helpful villager, and that is clouding our judgement about him... if i am wrong my dear saucey, no hard feelings

++The Sauce Pan Man


its more that he is going right under our noses and he could be a wolf/bear

Azaelia of Willowbottom 09-08-2005 05:06 PM

OK, fine. You've forced me into a corner where everything I do seems suspicious. :p

If Glirdan is innocent, let the record stand that I was forced into a corner (by, perhaps, a Saucepanman who is hiding a fanged and furry secret...).

I will vote ++Glirdan

Partially due to intimidation (naming no names, Sauce :D just kidding, that's what this game is all about), and partially to break a tie, and partially again to save my own innocent butt.

(If I'm lynched, please, someone remember to plant azaeleas on my grave...they're my favorites... :( )

Edit: cross-posted with Gil-Galad

Folwren 09-08-2005 05:24 PM

This vote makes me sick. Down right sick to my stomach. Do I have to vote? Must I?

No one's here to really answer me.....I don't have time to wait five minutes for Sauce Man to reply.

I can't vote. I want to vote Azaelia, but that'll put two people in the noose at once. And what happens if they're both innocent? ...

But what if both are guilty?

Heaven help me.

++Azaelia of Willowbottom

Consider it thus:

Glirdan can not be saved.

My suspicion added to what Saucepan Man said in his summing up of everything made an equal sign that said guilty as far as we can tell.

The Saucepan Man 09-08-2005 05:27 PM

You know, I'm beginning to think that a double-lynching of Glirdan and Azaelia may not be such a bad thing. That's the way that I would have voted, Folwren. :)

Although heaven help us tomorrow if we are wrong. :eek:

Azaelia of Willowbottom 09-08-2005 05:27 PM

Please cover my grave in flowers...
 
Heaven help you all, indeed, when you find out that I am innocent. I'd beg you to reconsider, but votes cannot be retracted. I tried to warn you.

edit: cross-posted with Sauce. Goodbye. :(

Glirdan 09-08-2005 05:30 PM

Well, it seems like toDay is my last day amongst all of you. I just have one final request. Someone take care of my cheese shop, as a final favor?

Encaitare 09-08-2005 05:30 PM

Voting is closed. Double lynching will soon be posted.

Azaelia of Willowbottom 09-08-2005 05:31 PM

Final Request
 
Farewell, sweet village. I'm on to a better place.

Please bury me somewhere with lots of pretty flowers, preferably azaeleas.

Folwren 09-08-2005 05:39 PM

Glirdan, I had no hand in your hanging.

Azaelia, before you go, I would like you to know that I honestly have no hard feelings against you, except that I think you're killing many of my neighbors. If you are innocent in truth, then know now before you go that had I had anyway of knowing of your innocence, I wouldn't have voted the way I had.

-- Folwren

Azaelia of Willowbottom 09-08-2005 05:42 PM

Understood and agreed. No hard feelings for anyone after this mess is cleaned up.

The same goes for you, Glirdan...I voted for you in an attempt at self-defence. If you're innocent, like everyone else I've had the misfortune of voting for, forgive me?

Glirdan 09-08-2005 05:45 PM

Ya. It's just a game after all. No hard feelings anybody.

The Saucepan Man 09-08-2005 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Encaitare
Voting is closed. Double lynching will soon be posted.

That is generally understood to mean no more posts until to-Morrow ... :rolleyes:

Azaelia of Willowbottom 09-08-2005 05:49 PM

[QUOTE]
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sauce
That is generally understood to mean no more posts until to-Morrow ... :rolleyes:

Ah, but she didn't say posting was closed, and this is, after all, quite an unusual situation...

Glirdan 09-08-2005 05:51 PM

Quote:

Ah, but she didn't say posting was closed, and this is, after all, quite an unusual situation...
I'd say. I just want to see what my death is like. Make it cool Enca. But no matter what you do, I'll be happy with it. :)

Encaitare 09-08-2005 06:00 PM

"Kill them!" the villagers cried, caught up in the bloodlust of a double lynching. "Don't let the filthy beasts live a second longer!"

"So, who shall we get rid of first?" they asked themselves.

"Ladies first," Glirdan said nastily to Azaelia.

"I am innocent," she said, holding her head high.

"Innocent until proven guilty," the villagers said as she was led up to the gallows. "And the only way to prove it is right up here."

"Don't forget the flowers," Azaelia whispered just before the floor dropped out. The villagers winced as they heard the sound of her neck snapping. She had been as innocent as she had claimed all along.

"Cut her down quickly! If she wasn't a werecreature, he must be!" But where Glirdan had once stood was now an enormous bear. The villagers screamed and backed away as he growled at them. Words were just discernible in his snarls: "You can't kill me! Just go ahead and try!" The villagers thought it was certain death; the creature was huge and could easily maul them or take their heads off with a single swipe of a massive paw.

"Get out of the way!" Folwren the blacksmith cried, throwing a knife he had crafted. It stuck in the Beorning's shoulder; the creature bellowed but was far from defeated. "Take these!" Folwren shouted to the villagers, distributing weapons of his own making. Blades flashed as they were embedded in the bear's flesh. But all the attacking simply seemed to stir him to greater wrath. Several villagers were tossed aside like rag dolls or slashed by his claws. Finally, though, someone got a lucky shot and threw a blade directly into the Beorning's forehead, and he went down.

The villagers were shaken, and in some cases slightly injured, but still alive. "I've got azaeleas in my garden," said Kath quietly.


Living:

Folwren
Shelob
Holbytlass
Meneltarmacil
WaynetheGoblin
wilwarin538
Durelin
Saucepan Man
Kath
Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
Gil-Galad


The Deceased:

Encaitare (Moderator) - Stuck full of quills by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Llama (Mammal) - Mauled into oblivion by Black Beorning on NIGHT 1
Bergil (Ordinary Villager) - Crushed under the gallows on DAY 1
SamwiseGamgee (Ordinary Villager) – Killed by Hunter on NIGHT 2
TGWBS (Hunter) – Impaled by Wolves on NIGHT 2
Kitanna (Cobbler) – Given a TV closeup by Black Beorning on NIGHT 2
Alcarillo (Ordinary Villager) - Dismembered by villagers on DAY 2
Mormegil (Shirriff) - Charmed by Black Beorning on NIGHT 3
The Phantom (Seer) - Rendered blind by Wolves on NIGHT 3
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Ordinary Villager) - Lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Glirdan (Bear) - Pincushioned by villagers on DAY 3

It is now NIGHT 4. Wolves may PM. I need names from the Wolves and Ranger.

Encaitare 09-09-2005 05:31 PM

Tasty! =P
 
The villagers assembled in the square feeling that they had achieved a victory. No longer would there be two corpses waiting for them each morning. Yet they realized that their number was still dwindling, and they would have to do their very best to catch the Wolves, all three of which were still alive. And indeed, someone was not among them that morning: the Saucepan Man.

His home was near the dark woods, since he often ventured into the thick forest to search for rare mushrooms. Warily eyeing the woods, which were foreboding even in the daylight, the villagers entered his home.

The living room looked completely normal. In fact, everything looked too normal. The villagers decided to poke around a little bit. There were several items from Saucie’s fungus collection scattered about, and a tray of stuffed mushrooms was on the table. A few paring knives were safely in the wooden rack. But upon closer inspection, they saw that the rack was stained with something dark. They pulled out the knives to see that the Wolves had not even bothered to clean their murderous weapons.

“There’s got to be a body around here somewhere,” one villager said. But there was nothing under the table, or behind the couch. Nor was there a body in the other rooms of the small house.

“What about in that big cabinet?” someone asked.

“I don’t think so,” another responded. “That’s where he keeps all his mushrooms. Would a body fit in there?” They pulled open the door just to check. And lo and behold, there was the body of the Saucepan Man, wedged onto a shelf between the jars which held his wares.

Most of the flesh and muscle had been carved from his body so that what remained glistened sickeningly at the villagers. And a sign hung around his neck: “We made you a little snack.”

Slowly, the villagers turned to look in horror at the platter of mushrooms stuffed with a special Sauce.


Living:

Folwren
Shelob
Holbytlass
Meneltarmacil
WaynetheGoblin
wilwarin538
Durelin
Kath
Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
Gil-Galad


The Deceased:

Encaitare (Moderator) - Stuck full of quills by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Llama (Mammal) - Mauled into oblivion by Black Beorning on NIGHT 1
Bergil (Ordinary Villager) - Crushed under the gallows on DAY 1
SamwiseGamgee (Ordinary Villager) – Killed by Hunter on NIGHT 2
TGWBS (Hunter) – Impaled by Wolves on NIGHT 2
Kitanna (Cobbler) – Given a TV closeup by Black Beorning on NIGHT 2
Alcarillo (Ordinary Villager) - Dismembered by villagers on DAY 2
Mormegil (Shirriff) - Charmed by Black Beorning on NIGHT 3
The Phantom (Seer) - Rendered blind by Wolves on NIGHT 3
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Ordinary Villager) - Lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Glirdan (Bear) - Pincushioned by villagers on DAY 3
The Saucepan Man (Ordinary Villager) – Stuffed into mushrooms by Wolves on NIGHT 4

It is now DAY 4. Converse!

Gil-Galad 09-09-2005 07:08 PM

hmm... my thoughts on Saucey being too helpful were right, the wolves hit him off probaly because they are afraid of Saucey finding them out, i initally beleived that Saucey was a wolf because he seemed like the too helpful villager... now i must wait for other comments...

Folwren 09-09-2005 07:26 PM

I actually guessed that the Sauceman would be the next dead. The wolves knock off the smart people at night, and vote for the innocent that are being picked on already during the day.

The wolves have crippled us. Crippled us to a point that I have no idea how we're going to make a come back. Saucepan Man was smart and expierenced. Who else here playing is like that? I'm not experienced. On a normal bases, I'd claim to be smart, but I've proved myself a fool again and again this game. Kath may be helpful, but I still slightly suspect her, but not enough to press anything. Shelob is sensible, and I don't think she's guilty of anything. Nilp, thank goodness, is known to be good. He's seemed smart in his commens around the Downs.

Menel, now, is back to the top of my list. For a bit, he knocked me off his trail because of his vote for Azaelia because I thought that she was guilty. But now that she is proven to be innocent, Menel’s vote makes sense if he were a wolf. And last night he voted for Shelob - a name that had not come up in anyone suspicious list (that I remember) ever before. He had never mentioned her. I am almost sure that Shelob is innocent. For him to vote for her brings even more doubt to my mind about him.

We must be very careful. We have two gifted left to us - Nilp, the Sherriff - and the ranger. I have made a guess in my mind who the ranger is, but I won't say for fear that the wolves decide to pick up and make a wild stab in the dark and I be right. We've got to talk today, people. We have to talk. Our choice must be made carefully today lest we kill another innocent.

We have roughly twenty-two hours. Let us use them well.

-- Folwren

Meneltarmacil 09-09-2005 08:13 PM

Folwren, I voted for Azaelia because it was basically between her and Alcarillo at that point. Between the two, Alcarillo seemed the most innocent at the time because killing tgwbs would imply that he was a Wolf, something an actual werebeast would usually avoid, so I voted for Zali on that basis.

I suggest taking a look at some of those who voted for Zali yesterDay.

Holbytlass: As I said before, she was apparently convinced of Glirdan's innocence, and he turns out to be the Bear. She is most likely a misguided innocent, though, as nobody except possibly the phantom would really have known he was the Bear.

Folwren: Tough call, but your vote did cause the innocent to die along with the Bear. I'm not as suspicious of you as I am of others, though.

As for the others, I still suspect Kath and Shelob, Kath for taking lighthearted accusations against me seriously and continuing to stand by it though I have already explained myself at least once, Shelob for jumping on Kath's bandwagon.

Meneltarmacil 09-09-2005 08:15 PM

Double post, but information may be important
 
Another suspect on my list is Gil-Galad. He's been extremely quiet this whole time and voted for Saucepan yesterDay, who turned out to be innocent.

Folwren 09-09-2005 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Menel:
Folwren, I voted for Azaelia because it was basically between her and Alcarillo at that point. Between the two, Alcarillo seemed the most innocent at the time because killing tgwbs would imply that he was a Wolf, something an actual werebeast would usually avoid, so I voted for Zali on that basis.
That's a reasonable excuse. I'll take it for now and won't push my doubts on people any further until we've heard from some others today.

Quote:

Folwren: Tough call, but your vote did cause the innocent to die along with the Bear. I'm not as suspicious of you as I am of others, though.
Yes, I know it caused her to die along with the Bear. I've been turning that over in my mind since she died. I thought that both she and Glirdan were as guilty as one another...I mean, I suspected them both the same amount and when Glirdan was beyond saving, I figured I'd get rid of her, too. For, really honestly, she looked guilty.

If we hadn't killed her, she would have been suspected today, too, and we might have wasted our votes and time on her. I'm sorry she's dead, but she couldn't have proved herself innocent today and things might have gone the same way today and gotten us no further. So perhaps my vote, wicked as it may appear, saved us time.

Now, what I'm wondering is why you suspect Shelob? Any particular reasons? We need all the reasoning we can possible get today.

Anyone who doesn't talk today I will highly suspect, people. It's a dangerous stage of the game for both innocents and wolves - wolves because they may give themselves away if they talk, and really give themselve away if they don't - and innocents because if we lynch another of our own, we only help the wolves.

- Folwren

Meneltarmacil 09-09-2005 08:31 PM

Quote:

Now, what I'm wondering is why you suspect Shelob? Any particular reasons? We need all the reasoning we can possible get today.
I suspect Shelob because she quickly picked up on Kath's suspicions of me and continues to accuse me. It is very much in the nature of a werewolf to bandwagon, and she is doing a good job of it. Though I also suspect Kath for starting that whole thing. (I have said most of my reasons for suspecting these two a couple of posts up.)

Folwren 09-09-2005 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Menel:
I suspect Shelob because she quickly picked up on Kath's suspicions of me and continues to accuse me. It is very much in the nature of a werewolf to bandwagon, and she is doing a good job of it. Though I also suspect Kath for starting that whole thing. (I have said most of my reasons for suspecting these two a couple of posts up.)
Okay, then. I'll look over that and see what can be found.

-- Folwren

Gil-Galad 09-09-2005 09:53 PM

i've always been suspicous of Saucey because of his helpfulness, everyone beleives that hes inocent cause he helps out, so thats what i thought...plus i got school yo

Cailín 09-09-2005 11:00 PM

Ai, Saucy lost to our village now too. This is getting more and more painful.

*begins incoherent rant*

If I learned one thing these last few days, it is that you can't trust anyone. You may want to trust them, because they appear to make sense while you have no idea what's going on. But reasoning seems to be the best mask to hide behind during these perilous days and nights.

The thing is: if the wolves are clever, and the villagers have no idea what's going on, trying to be reasonable seems to be of little help. We have been voting off innocents one by one these past few days and the wolves could easily hide behind the confused villagers. They did hardly have to go through the trouble of saving each other and making schemes, for we did all the dirty work for them. YesterDay I was almost certain we were looking at the wrong set of people. Today, I'm sure. We are pretty damn lucky Glirdan turned out to be the bear - the wolves were probably rubbing their paws with glee expecting the doublelynching of two innocents - and not all hope is lost yet. But if we want to change our fortunes, we will now have to free ourselves from the traps the wolves set where we so easily fell into. We must not forget the wolves are now at a major advantage. They are in no danger of the bear anymore. Most of the people they consider a threat are gone. And we're all clueless.

I'll be back in about two hours to make a rather more extended post featuring all my revolutionary accusations. For now: take care all of you.

*incoherent rant ends*

Cailín 09-10-2005 03:52 AM

Here goes:

So, now we know a lot more people to be innocent, I think we should go back to the voting on day one. Just to make things less complicated I will consider Glirdan a known innocent on our side as well, since he would not really gain anything by voting for people he thought not to be wolves and has just as much knowledge about wolf-identities as the rest of us.

Alcarillo-3 (TGWBS, Wayne, Sauce)
Bergil-5 (Alcarillo, Wilwa, Holbytlass, Glirdan, Azaelia)
Meneltarmacil-1 (Kath)
Kitanna-1 (Gil)
Glirdan-2(Cailin, Kitanna)
Kath-2(Menel, Mormegil)

Not much to go on here. Most of our known innocents voted for other known innocents. Wilwa and Holbytlass went with Bergil but no real conclusions can be drawn from that. But the Kath against Menel thing started this day and I think that's interesting to have a closer look at.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Menel
Kath, both you and Shelob seem to want me to explain myself. May I ask why you suspect me?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath
My accusation of you at the beginning was completely random and based on nothing more than me looking at the list of names and choosing the three that jumped out at me. However, once I had picked you I realised that there were quite a few others that felt the same. It seemed odd that a lot of people would have the same suspicion and so I looked to you to explain or defend yourself ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Morm
I guess I will hold that I find Menel suspicious, if for no other reason than a gut feeling. Sometimes you just have to trust your own instincts. Why trusting those has kept me alive so far.

You can see that the accusations concerning Menel are based on no more than gut feelings and light-hearted reactions getting out of hand. So I must insist not to accuse Menel today just because he has been on the radar for a long time. The accusations that all started it are meaningless. It makes Kath look slightly suspicious. She is not the Seer and has been on Menel's case from the beginning. Really strange. That’s not saying we should not accuse Menel, but not for these reasons.

---

Night 2 follows and we lose our Hunter & Cobbler, plus TGWBS takes another ordinary villager down with him. Note that looking back, this is our first clue to the werebear's identity. Glirdan was accused by Kitanna the day before and since he was only aware of his own innocence, I think both me and Kitanna were on his to-slay list this night.

Gil immediately jumps on Azaelia's case here. Werewolf behavior? Rather rash, then, but somehow I think Gil would always be rather rash.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saucy
That certainly seems to be the case today. Although some seem to be picking on only some of the villagers who voted for Bergil.

*Glares at Gil-Galad and WaynetheGoblin*

Why didn't you include Glirdan in your list, Gil. And why did you only mention wilwarin and Alcarillo, Wayne?

This would now suggest a Holbytlass - Wayne pairing. Could be a possibility and surely would explain Wayne's silence for Holby would have warned him to shut up after his multiple strange comments, as I’ll get back to later.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saucy
Holbytlas voted for Bergil to put him ahead of Alcarillo and Kath on the votes. Much the same applies as with wilwarin, with the added possibility that, if Kath is a Wolf, Holbytlas might have been voting to save her.

Holbytlass, Kath, Wayne trio, anyone?

Quote:

Originally Posted by phantom
If Alca is innocent, then the only way a vote for Bergil looks suspicious is if Kath is a werewolf. It was right after Kath received her second vote (tying her for the lead) that Bergil took the lead.

We now know only Holbytlass might be suspicious because of that and she said she was planning to vote Bergil from the beginning. The lynching of Alca this day was not very helpful after all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shelob
If I were to judge from the timing Holbytlass or Wilwarin would be the least suspicious as they both un-tied the Bergil count. Wolves (and even the bear) would probably have liked having a tie on the first day, so long as their names weren't on the tied list.

True, true. Very interesting. However, Wilwa voted too soon to be going for a tie and Holbytlass might be trying to save Kath. Anyway, Shelob defending Holby and Wilwa here is sort of suspicious since especially Holby does not look good after this voting session. So here we have minor evidence of a Shelob - Holby - Wilwa connection. Also, we now know that of the people who voted Bergil on day one, Holby and Wilwa are the only ones who could still be suspicious.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpM
For the record, I also regard the following as suspicious (as I did yesterday):

Meneltarmacil
Kath
Shelob

Quote:

If TGWBS's death was an attempt to set up Alcarillo, then it is worth looking at those who have been gunning for Alcarillo to-Day. I would say that this applies to the following:

Gil-Galad
Azaelia
Folwren and
Glirdan.
Even though he is no longer here to help us, SpM gives two very interesting lists on Day 2. The first being interesting because at this point there was still no pressing to lynch Alcarillo at all. At this point his (and other people's) main suspects were ones we still can regard as possibly suspicious.

The second list is interesting because this might be exactly what the wolves were rejoicing at. Alcarillo's set up was maybe transparent, but not this! They knew that if Alca was killed today, a lot of innocents would be targeted next. Just because of this, though it may seem as a contradiction, I think Folwren and Gil might be just as innocent as the other two (Glirdan being not exactly innocent, but he was in the eyes of the wolves).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wayne
If you go back to post 107 saucey said I only put 2 people on my sucpect list.That is because thats all I suspected then. Now I suspect the same as saucey.

This is strange! Right after the Saucepan Man gives his new list consisting of Gil etc. Wayne changes his mind, without stating why. If Wayne is a wolf, now we know Wilwa, Gil and Folwren are innocent.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Folwren
Looky here, man, if it turns out that they are not in league with one another, and they are both innocent villagers, or, better yet, one or both of them is gifted, you've just possibly given ground for people to suspect you.

Remember when Morm brought up the idea the phantom & SpM working together? This aggressive speech now speaks a little for Folwren's innocence. Surely a wolf would have sat quietly and enjoyed the growing suspicion among innocents?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath
Yes I accused him (Menel) but I have explained the reasons behind this before.

No, Kath. It now appears you haven't. You are taking an awful lot on gut feeling. Please explain.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath
Not so. I don't want to be linked with mormegil because I suspect him. I'll happily be linked with various others that I believe to be innocent.

Though I seem to be making a case for Kath being a wolf here, I think this needs to be mentioned too. It's strange Kath would have enstranged herself from morm so much if she was a wolf and knew him to be innocent. On the other hand, he kept accusing her and she would have made herself look more suspicious if she had still aligned with him.

---

So, we've reached the voting on day one. As SpM said, he wanted the wolves to get a bit of a work out. So, at the point of his vote:

Alcarillo - 3 (phantom, Cailin, Folwren)
Azaelia - 2 (Wilwa, Morm)
Wilwa - 1 (Holby)

And he votes Menel. Kath quickly follows. Then Gil votes, putting Alca clearly in the lead. Glirdan increases the distance between Alca and the others. So does Azaelia. Shelob stops the band wagon, voting Menel. Now instead of saving himself once and for all, Menel votes Azaelia. Risky – especially if he’s a wolf and knows Azaelia is innocent. Azaelia was already in no danger of being lynched, so he did not try for a double lynching of two innocents. Durelin casts a useless vote on Folwren and Alcarillo is lynched.

Now why Glirdan killed Morm the following night is still a mystery to me, but maybe he tried to throw off suspicion. The wolves decide the phantom is too dangerous and rob us of our Seer. Bad night. Very, bad night. Let's look at the day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Menel
But I do think at least one of them probably voted for Alcarillo yesterDay, possibly Folwren or Gil-Galad.

This would be very tactical indeed if Menel was a wolf. He does not accuse our proven innocents, but instead the ones we still have doubts about, making a connection between him and them unlikely.

Shelob makes an interesting post then.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shelob
My guess would be that either the phantom was hitting to close to home for the werewolves to feel comfortable, or that they were just trying to get rid of someone who was, to them, a nuisance and, to the rest of the village, a help.

The silly thing is, the phantom was extremely far from home at this point. Almost the only ones he found suspicious, we now know were innocent - most prominent among them Azaelia and Glirdan. Also Shelob is accusing Glirdan in this post... This could be a very subtle nudge in the direction of the doublelynching of Azaelia and Glirdan.

The discussions that day are so confusing and would take me too much time, so that I will go straight to the voting:

Nilp: Glirdan
Wilwa: Glirdan
Glirdan: Gil
Kath: Menel
Cailin: Glirdan
SpM: Azaelia
Shelob: Menel
Menel: Shelob
Durelin: Azaelia
Holby: Azaelia
Gil: SpM
Azaelia: Glirdan
Folwren: Azaelia

So both Shelob and Kath are voting for Menel here, making it likely and believable they should do so again today. It is rather reckless for two wolves to be aligning with each other like that, but not impossible.
Menel himself votes Shelob, thus doing everything not to save himself. He is one suicidal wolf if he is one, but maybe he just knew Kath and Shelob would not get support from others.
Durelin and Holby both vote for Azaelia, Holby even stating she wants to give the wolves a work out. A work out or a doublelynching of two innocents (since she likely cross posted with Durelin).
Gil casts a rather strange vote on SpM here. Again - are the wolves trying to set him up by killing SpM tonight, or is it a double bluff, or totally unrelated. My guess would be the third option.
Folwren finally decides a double lynching is in order. Suspicious? Yes. Evidence? No. As SpM said, he'd have done so himself.

--

Today:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Menel
Folwren: Tough call, but your vote did cause the innocent to die along with the Bear. I'm not as suspicious of you as I am of others, though.

In the eyes of the wolf, both were innocent. We are just lucky.

OK. My entire thought process is up here. I am sure you are all bored out of your minds right now. For the ones who don’t want to read all ramblings – here’s a simple list of the ones who I suspect the most.

Kath
Shelob
Holby
Wayne


I have doubts about Gil, Wilwa and Menel. The others are not really high on my suspect list right now.

I am aware I have included none of my own quotes in the above essay-like post. I must admit there’s also some evidence pointing towards me right now. All I can say I’ve been trying my best to help this village since the beginning and certainly am now, since I feel it will soon all be over – for the better or the worse.

Kath 09-10-2005 05:52 AM

So yesterDay I was likely to be the Bear and toDay I am probably a wolf in league with either Holby, Wayne or about three others that Cailin mentioned. Oh well, at least I was right about Azaelia being innocent.

Now as to my reasons for suspecting Menel I did post them. I wrote a whole long post with everything I thought in post 150. I don't think that Menel ever really responded to any of what I said and so I will still suspect him.

However, I am beginning to agree with him about Shelob. I hadn't really taken it into consideration before but if she were a wolf it would be quite helpful to hang onto me. I have become more loud as of late and so she never needs to explain her suspicions of Menel since I have already done so. Also I suppose, if I were lynched and found innocent then she might be considered innocent by default.

I'm sorry I'm not quite ready to do a full ananlysis of everything yet, it took me long enough just to find that old post of mine! I will be back later when I'm a little more awake and more people have posted.

Cailín 09-10-2005 06:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath
So yesterDay I was likely to be the Bear and toDay I am probably a wolf in league with either Holby, Wayne or about three others that Cailin mentioned. Oh well, at least I was right about Azaelia being innocent.

I never seriously thought you were the bear, I was just suggesting, not immediately persecuting and towards the end of the day you had already convinced me - as you can see in the post where I not quite so seriously stated the bear might be trying to frame you. Same as anyone innocent in this village, I can't trust anyone and taking all previous posts into consideration, I found I could make a small case for you. Nothing personal (though if you are a wolf, it is ;) )

Quote:

Now as to my reasons for suspecting Menel I did post them. I wrote a whole long post with everything I thought in post 150. I don't think that Menel ever really responded to any of what I said and so I will still suspect him.
I read that post and some of the things, especially the last statement does make sense - though I think he just voted for you as a response to your vote - by the by, most of the people seemed to be making constant u-turns on day one. Anyway:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath #150
Yes I accused him but I have explained the reasons behind this before.

It was more these reasons I was concerned about - that's to say, I did not see the reasons to begin with.

Quote:

However, I am beginning to agree with him about Shelob. I hadn't really taken it into consideration before but if she were a wolf it would be quite helpful to hang onto me. I have become more loud as of late and so she never needs to explain her suspicions of Menel since I have already done so.
True, this is also the reason why I found her so suspicious.

Quote:

I'm sorry I'm not quite ready to do a full ananlysis of everything yet, it took me long enough just to find that old post of mine! I will be back later when I'm a little more awake and more people have posted.
I hope more people wake up soon. Tis been awfully quiet here. Again.

wilwarin538 09-10-2005 07:41 AM

I would like to explain the lack of vote from my brother(Wayne). He was outside with his friends and lost track of time. At about 7:25 EST he rushed into the house realising what time it was and jumped on to his computer. He wrote out his post(a vote for Glirdan) but once it was posted it showed up after Enca's post which closed the voting, he decided to just delete it.

------------------------------------------

We got the bear, that is amazng. Now we have one less death to worry about. But we also lost Zali, that broke my heart when I saw she was an innocent since I had voted for her on DAY 2. We have also lost Saucy, he was very smart and he would have definetly been able to help us. The wolves have definetly weekened us, but we could still win. But if we lynch a villager for the next three days, the wolves win. So we have to get those wolves and fast, if we lynch to many villager before getting a wolf then we are doomed.

I think we should look at what Saucy posted here:
Quote:

Top suspects: Azaelia and Glirdan. Azaelia edges it on the evidence and because I still have this nagging feeling that Glirdan is simply guileless.
Secondary suspects: Holbytlass, Folwren, Kath, Gil-Galad and Shelob.
Don’t knows: Cailín, Durelin and WaynetheGoblin.
Probably not Wolves: Meneltarmacil and wilwarin.
Definitely innocent: Nilpaurion and The Saucepan Man.
We will just desregard the mention of Azealia. He was right about Glirdan though.

I agree with a bit of this. Though for me I would switch Menel's name to Top suspects, Shelob to I don't knows and Holby I feel is innocent. Folwren also to Top suspects.

So mine would be:

Top suspects: Meneltarmacil, Folwren
Secondary suspects: Kath, Gil-Galad
Don’t knows: Cailín, Durelin and WaynetheGoblin, Shelob
Probably not Wolves: Holbytlass
Definitely innocent: Nilpaurion and wilwarin538

So I think that I will eather vote for Folwren or Menel. If you want to see my reasons go read Saucy's post, the one that had that list in it.

Cailín 09-10-2005 08:16 AM

Soo *is feeling loud today*

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wilwarin
I think we should look at what Saucy posted here:

I'm not too sure. All SpM's theories were more or less based on the assumption that Azaelia was a wolf. But she wasn't.

Quote:

I agree with a bit of this. Though for me I would switch Menel's name to Top suspects, Shelob to I don't knows and Holby I feel is innocent. Folwren also to Top suspects.
But why? Referring to speculations is not really enough right now. Why Menel, because he voted for Azaelia? May I remind you, you did the same. As did many others, almost all of us thought she was guilty. Why do you feel Holby is innocent? And what about Folwren?

I realize I'm all over you here, but we need some opinions and if you are a wolf I am very much trying to catch you off-guard, of course ^^. In the same post Saucy says you're cleared if Azaelia is a wolf, but you're not. You are one of those who have voted for three known innocents in a row, disregarding your vote for Glirdan who might have been an innocent for all you know or care, if you are indeed a wolf.

Quote:

So mine would be:

Top suspects: Meneltarmacil, Folwren
Secondary suspects: Kath, Gil-Galad
Don’t knows: Cailín, Durelin and WaynetheGoblin, Shelob
Probably not Wolves: Holbytlass
Definitely innocent: Nilpaurion and wilwarin538
Fair enough.

Mine:

Top suspects: Shelob, Kath
Secondary suspects: Wilwa, Wayne, Holby
Don't knows: Menel, Durelin, Gil
Probably not a wolf: Folwren
Definitely innocent: Nilp, myself

But am reconsidering every post :p

wilwarin538 09-10-2005 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally pposted by Me
If you want to see my reasons go read Saucy's post, the one that had that list in it.
That's where most of my reasons are. I know Saucepan was wrong about Azealia, as we all were. I was just using his post as an example because it covered everyone.

He was suspicious of Holby cause she seemed "to innocent". Well I do think she is innocent. I just have a good feeling about her. Actually almost all of my thoughts are just gut feeling. I have a bad feeling about Folwren, but what Saucy said about Folwren helped it along a little. Menel, well Menel is suspicious of people cause they're suspicious of him, I don't like that.

Holbytlass 09-10-2005 08:55 AM

*waking up, rubbing crud from my eyes*

I thank those who do lengthy analyzing posts, never have been good at that myself, it always gives one something to think about and go back and check.

As for me (and has been my defence all along), I usually state before voting begins, who I'm going with, therefore I don't count up the votes and try to save anyone. Yesterday, in the beginning of the day, I was propably going to still go with Wilwarin, but then with Nilp proclaiming his being the shirrif and trusting his analysis and trusting SpM with his keeping the wolves on their toes, I voted for Azaelia (thinking I'd be the second one, but cross-posted with a couple of people). I'm innocent, the only 'dirt' on me is....well, you know.

I'm going now to dig through this pile of stuff and see who's thoughts might be on target.

wilwarin538 09-10-2005 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Holbytlass
Yesterday, in the beginning of the day, I was propably going to still go with Wilwarin,
Alright now I'm confused. Early in the Day yesterDay you said you weren't suspicious of me, but now you're saying you would have probably voted for me?

If this sounds to defensive its cause I am very confident of your innocence Holby but that comment is starting to make me doubt how confident I should be. Its almost like you are saying that to make up for the fact that you voted for Azealia.

Durelin 09-10-2005 10:17 AM

Well, I was wrong about quite a few things...time to figure things out all over again.

I still have my eye on Folwren, and I find wilwarin to be suspicious.

Unfortunately, I am l0w on time, so I w!ll have to return l4ter to be more h3lpful...

Kath 09-10-2005 10:37 AM

Oh this is getting so confusing! I can barely remember who's alive let alone who hasn't posted yet! I'm going to ignore accusations coming my way unless there is something I feel I should respond to because I have been thought of as suspicious from very early on and if I haven't proved my innocence to people by now I doubt it's going to happen.

So, quick analysis of people:
Folwren - Still not entirely sure about her. That sudden defence yesterDay gave me pause for thought and though she has explained her reasons for that, well I just don't entirely trust her. I suppose my new suspicion regarding Shelob is going to give her cause to suspect me as well.

Shelob - I have become suspicious of her recently thanks to Menel's comment on her bandwagoning, but then it seems silly to agree with the opinion of someone I so deeply suspect. Therefore Menel will stay top of my list but only if he is proved an innocent will I think Shelob is innocent.

Holbytlass - I have been accused of being in some kind of partnership with her because I haven't mentioned her much. But then, I haven't suspected her so far. She says she'll post again with more thoughts and I'll think more about her after that. But saying that, I wanted to wait for something more susbstantial yesterday and it never arrived. I would like some more from her if possible.

Meneltarmacil - I'm sorry Menel but I just don't trust you. You can say I took some lighthearted comments too far and that you have explained your innocence but you are still wolvish to me.

WaynetheGoblin - Well we have heard little from him and he missed the voting though wilwa has explained that. We all gave him the benefit of the doubt for being a newbie but I think we need to hear a deal more from him soon otherwise I am going to have to go against my own advice and become suspicious of him because he has barely said anything.

wilwarin538 - I can't get any feeling on her. While I don't feel suspicious of her I am wary of thinking of her as an innocent. The thing is that while she suspects me she also agrees with a lot of what I say (if not consciously). Her suspect list is similar to mine.

Durelin - Well we have heard nothing from her today so again, I'll wait to pass judgement.

Kath - Well at least you all know I'm not the Bear now! An innocent in my view.

Cailín - We have heard a lot from her today and that was nice. The very long post on Day 1's voting though confused me completely! But I don't think she's guilty of anything aside from making me read a really long post when I wasn't that awake.

Nilpaurion Felagund - An innocent Shirriff, surprisingly not dead yet.

Gil-Galad - We really have not heard much from him, and everything he has posted has been next to useless. He agrees with whatever the current theory is and votes for whoever the current suspect is (that I recall). If we don't hear something pretty susbstantial from him today he is going to go on my susect list.

WaynetheGoblin 09-10-2005 11:10 AM

I thank wilwa for explaining wht happend yesterday. My suspect list is MENEL SHELOB AND GIL.

WaynetheGoblin 09-10-2005 11:20 AM

This is what I think. Top suspect SHELOB GIL AND MENEL. Secondary suspects KATH AND CAILIN. Dont knows DURLIN AND WILWA . Probly not a wolf FOLWERN. Defently not a wolf NILP AND WAYNETHEGOBLIN.

Gil-Galad 09-10-2005 11:52 AM

Cailin is on my suspect list... he/she has stated her/himself as innocent and tried to bring a focus on Folwren

also, Kath, i didn't join in the current thoery, i got suspicous of Saucey because of his helpfulness to the village and that can be a great cover for a wolf, your comment on me isn't truthful, maybe your a wolf trying to get me into trouble? also school started so don't expect me too post every hour, i had Kitanna and saucey as my suspects, nobody else did and when i voted for them, nobody else did


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