Forced? tsk-tsk... I already told you the nature of them, testing whether they would hold. And looking at how you will react to them.

Illogical? No way. Sorry. Very much logical indeed (which doeasn't mean they are correct as the premises need to be correct for a deduction to bring forwards a true outcome - and we don't yet know the truth-value of the premises).

Exaggerative? That's in your eyes my friend. I'd like to remind you that the wolves think they're under tons of pressure when they in fact are not.

So you find me suspicious because I have suspected you? Retaliation then? If you're an inocent that's very bad playing. If you're a wolf I'd understand, but a good wolf would also know better if not under a direct death-threat.


Next stops, reconsidering Brinn & looking at Sally...

This is no good, Nogrod. 1. I found at least three instances of poor logic and outlined them in that really big long post. 2. I call your arguments forced largely because of the poor logic. 3. However, the exaggerative element is, as you say, somewhat subjective.

Ok, lunchtime for me now. I'll see you all toMorrow.

Voting time!

++sally

for reasons already explained.

Now the rush comes...

EDIT: crossed with Gwath

Worried about:
Boro(+1) - still don't like his behavior at the end of last day and has said a few worrying things today.
Brinn

Slightly worried about:
Fea(-1) - still don't know what to do with her, but I somehow feel a Feawolf would act differently.
Gwath(-1) - even though some seem to think differently, I think his posts today have looked more innocent than guilty.
Sally(-1) - her vote looks bad, but she hasn't done anything today to make me more suspicious.

Not sure:
Nilp
Nogrod(-1) - don't like his semi-throwaway vote for Gwath yesterday, but other than that, I don't see him suspicious

Not alarmed:
Lal(+1) - a bit confused about her, but not alarmingly
Rikae
Shasta

Probably innocent:
Isabellkya
McCaber
Mith
Nerwen(-2) - posted very innocently today. I had a tendency to completely misinterpret her in the past, but I won't consider that at this point.

Nilp or McCaber... McCaber or Nilp... hmm....

or perhaps Macalaure, for his misbehavior this morning...

Nah, I'll punish him some other way. :p

++McCaber

Thoughts.
 

Why I believe the killers of Despair-taichou are innocent.

(Borrowing Nerwen's voting list: )

Rikae --> Sally (1:19 AM GMT).
Shasta --> Boro (6:42 AM)
Brinniel --> Mac (1:27 PM)
Gwath --> Rikae (1:49 PM)
CaptainofDespair --> Day One (2:29 PM)
McCaber --> CaptainofDespair (3:35 PM)
Lalwendë --> Brinniel (3:46 PM)
Feanor of the Peredhil --> Boro (04:02 PM) (Boro 2)
Isabellkya --> CaptainofDespair (04:41 PM) (CoD 2)
Kath --> Brinn (04:41 PM) (Brinn 2)
Mac --> CaptainofDespair (4:56 PM) (CoD 3)
Nogrod --> Gwath (4:48 PM)
Sally --> Boro (4:59 PM) (Boro 3)
Mithalwen --> CaptainofDespair (4:59 PM) (CoD 4)
Boro --> Lalwendë (4:59) PM

I agree with the chappies who say the most innocent are those who voted for him last, but there are a lot more (and less damaging) people to vote for. Wolf-on-Wolf votes, in my opinion, happen only when there is less chance of there being a bandwaggon in the Wolf's 'favour.' It could be masked as vendetta votes (either due to gaming history or disagreement with strategy or whatever reason I may have forgotten) since it's less likely that vendetta votes are followed by the masses.

Therefore, I would bet my eyes (my precious bloodline limit Sharingan) that the four are innocent.

In any case, like I said, I like the way they're posting right now.

As for my suspicions:

• Nogrod's post 166 re Brinniel has convinced, like I said before. Because of this I am highly likely to vote for her.
  
  
• Gwath is rather twisty. Hehe. Meaning he seems to start with the premise that Nogrod is indeed a Wolf:
  Quote:

  However, I'm inclined to be more wary of any lists of "suspects" that wolves produce, no matter what point in the game they occur. (Gwath 168)

  and then kinda goes on from there (198). Hey, I hate DAY 1s, too, man, but at least I listen to DAY 1 theories. Would you rather have us pulling names out of our hats? You vote for who you think the most suspicious is, no matter how you reach that conclusion. (Well, an innocent does. So far as I know . . . )
  
  Hmm . . . his defence of this:
  Quote:

  Quote: Originally Posted by Nogrod [T]his one from Gwath discussing Rikae caught my eye and the things he has been doing after it have raised my alarms a bit more. Quote: Originally Posted by Gwath At one point I would have pointed out that such a bold statement would be unlikely to come from a wolf, because it draws attention and attention is dangerous. My mistake was that I assumed that all wolves play the same way I do: low key. So, the question is, what kind of wolf does Rikae play as: bold, or boring? But the last one is the one I got worried about. Quote: Originally Posted by Gwath I wish I could stick around and participate in the discussion, but I have to run off. I'll be back in time for the deadline, but I just wanted to make it clear that I'm not trying to be extra-quiet and slide under the radar. It's inadvertent. Now comparing this with the other underlining in the first quote really sends shivers down my spine. So when he's a wolf he's quiet and now he has to explain that as he has to go it doesn't mean that he is being flying under the radar... [All underlinings by Nogrod.] It seems obvious to me that Nogrod is making a concerted effort to find arguments against me where very few exist. His points can be summarized as follows: 1. Nogrod is inclined to find me guilty because I am making assertions about other people, which I profess to not doing when I am a wolf, playing "low-key." If I were a wolf, he implies, I would do the opposite of what I claim to do as a wolf. Because I am doing the opposite (i.e. I am making points about others), I must be a wolf. This, at least, is the implication. The first problem in this argument (albeit an implied argument) is that it argues that I am a wolf based on the assumption that I am a wolf. The second problem is that he misdefines "low-key". "Low-key" does not mean silence or lack of discourse. It means that I am careful not to draw unecessary attention to myself. Lack of discourse is obvious, and therefore not low-key. 2. According to Nogrod, it is strange for me to profess to "thinking on-screen." However, he purports to doing much the same thing in post #163: "I'm just trying to help myself to orientate and to see where to look in the beginning toDay." There's nothing weird about this. Organizing one's thoughts by posting makes a lot of sense. 3. Because I claim to be a low-key wolf, my statement in a later post that I am not trying to fly under the radar - in other words, not trying to play low-key - looks mighty suspicious. Actually, I agree with him here. I don't like, however, that he makes much of the chills and shivers that my post sends down his spine. Appeal to the emotion is an effective rhetorical device, but it's not helpful here. Overall, this post of Nogrod's seems forced and exaggerative. (Gwath)

  Yeah, I found his post a bit facetious, but it is DAY 1 'evidence' and is therefore entitled to some benefit of the doubt. At least it gets discussion moving in a better direction for the village, than, say, doing IC banter. But your defence was simply . . . *shakes head* All this talking about what you might do if you were one or other, what you think he might think of what you're doing, etc. (which you did twice--once yesterDAY and this now toDAY) and rehashing DAY 1 discussion (I thought you hated DAY 1s, why bring them here in DAY 2?) is just *shakes head some more*.
  
  
• The Fea-Shasta affair is exactly the cloak for a Wolf-on-Wolf interaction I'm wary of. Easier to survive in your own little world, after all. The cold hard world is cruel, it bitess.
  
  

Talking about Brinn and apart from what I have said already toDay. Someone asked which were my suspicions of her yesterDay. Well basically the same which Mac pointed out: she was playing it veery carefully and backing up almost everything she said, just like a capable wolf would do - and looking at the fact how few actually have suspected her one might say she has played very successfully. If she's a wolf that is.

My insecurity comes from the fact that I opened my toDay's post on Brinn with Boro's idea of her going after the possible seer Kath last Night. Now as went back the thread I realised the situation was not so straightforwards and Boro's point had misled me on the believability of the initial suggestion.

For that reason I'd hesitate with Brinn a bit more all the time acknowledging that people can suspect a right wolf with wrong reasons as well... :rolleyes:

That leaves me Boro to watch even more closely.

And Sally as well. Her many times recounted ations from yesterDay look like trying to save a fellow. I've seen wolves giving the crucial vote to their mate to gain credibility and open saves of a fellow at the last moment so it's no good arguing over whether wolves might generally do such a thing. It's up to whether Sally was doing yesterDay or not.

[QUOTE=Nilpaurion Felagund;567769][*]Gwath is rather twisty. Hehe. Meaning he seems to start with the premise that Nogrod is indeed a Wolf:
Quick correction: the list in question was by the known wolf CaptainofDespair, not Nogrod.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod.
EDIT2: Fixed quotes.

I'm sorely tempted to vote for Boro despite being convinced he's no wolf, because he keeps voting for me.

It would be stupid to be so obvious :rolleyes: Mind, your spat with Gwath is pretty odd, given that it makes people suspicious. So why do it? I'm not an experienced player but even I wouldn't do that. I'm sure you wouldn't be so plain about it. ;)

Definitely not worried about Brinn anyway. If she is a wolf then I will cop it later.

What about those who are being too careful too? To be honest, I'd worry about those more than I'd worry about Gwath and Nogrod.

When is the deadline?

After a more thorough reading of Boro's 208 I must take the 'chumminess' comment back. I said it before (while skimming page 6) cos this: and totally failed to notice this:

About twenty minutes...

Ach so. :o I was confused what with that statement coming so hard upon the heels of his strong accusation of Nogrod.

Shoot shoot shoot shoot! *mutters and flails* Back in five minutes with THE most watered down "what I think" post ever.



I'm still wondering why everyone (well, not everyone, but you know what I mean) thinks Gwath is so guilty. I'll have a look at it toNight and see where that vibe seems to be coming from.

Back in five. Ish. Hopefully less.

EDIT: x'd, I'm sure.

Mith -> Gwathagor
Boro -> Lal
Fea -> Boro
Izzy -> Nogrod
Gwath -> Nogrod (Nog 2, Boro, Lal, Gwath 1)
Caber -> Sally (Nog 2, Sally, Boro, Lal, Gwath 1)
Rikae -> Caber (Nog 2, Caber, Sally, Boro, Lal, Gwath 1)

There's no better way to give only two wolves voting power than to spread the votes like that. :rolleyes:

Hmm...well I think his vote can point either way. I've seen an innocent Nogrod make a throwaway vote at the end of deadline before...

I'm glad you trust me (and I promise I'm not fooling you), but I just can't help but wonder if I can trust you. Bah, I think my mind's still stuck on last game; phantom repeatedly said he trusted me as an innocent (and I think that's what caused me to hesitate in voting him)...then of course he turned out to be a wolf. I just don't want that to happen again. :rolleyes:

I was just commenting about what you said in post #187.

Sorry, but I'm really confused. I can't recall ever mentioning the Boro/Nogrod relationship...

Lal's behaviour is a bit a odd toDay. Being so convinced she's the next wolf kill (I can still see better candidates) and also some mixup on the rules (retractable votes). But is this odd behaviour wolfish? I'm not sure...

Exactly.

Funny thing you said Sally, of people thinking Gwath is generally felt suspicious. There's me... then...?

So over-reacting or just not reading anything from the thread (but why then make the comment?)?

Since I wouldn't like to see Nogrod go now, I think I'll vote for one of the given candidates (unless a secure Brinn-waggon suddenly appears). I'm leaning towards voting for Boro, with Sally and Gwath as possible second choices.

Danke for the list, Mac.

Hmm, and yes, voting for Brinniel does nothing. Suspect #2, however, already has a vote.

Ergo:

++Gwathagor

So a last minute madness to come then?

At this situation I might vote for Sally... mainly because of yeterDay's end actions... possibly Boro for cobblery.

Quicklike. Sorry, I haven't counted the votes so I really have no idea what's going on in that direction. *mutters and flails again*

See quote above? I read the thread last night and noted that Noggie's been on Gwath like Captain Jack on a TARDIS. I still don't see Gwath's big fault, he looks innocent to me, and it makes me think Nog is grasping at straws. Besides, why kill Gwath? It's the same reason I didn't vote for Captain yesterDay; not enough information from him (although I turned out to be right, dang it! heh) that I felt comfortable killing him. Maybe I'll agree with the case against Gwath at some point, but right now it feels too forced, and the post I quoted doesn't help things.

I'm sorry I couldn't explain more, but I don't want to completely spam you people like ten minutes before DL, so I'll just vote.

++Noggie


EDIT: x'd pretty much since my last post. sorry if I'm a bit muddled

Not a suspicion, but a request for clarification.

Maybe I mixed you up with someone else... I'll have to go back and find the person who said that (I remember thinking it didn't seem reasonable, and less when Nilp echoed it.)

Rikae's recent posts make me a bit uncomfortable. I won't vote her toDay (no need to spread the votes anymore), but I want a better look at her toMorrow. I'm also not ready to vote Lal but she's also someone I definitely need to take a closer look at. And Nilp...who seems to be jumping on other people's comments. Hmmm.

Best I stick with voting my original top two suspects. So will it be Nogrod or Sally?

Oooo, there's an interesting angle. I thought Boro was possibly furry(ish) yesterDay. I totally forgot we had a cobbler.



P.S. In my last post, I didn't clarify very well at all. Noggie sounded like he was trying to defend his accusations, which I still think are a bit silly by the way. (Not silly so much as semi-unfounded)


Off for a drink. Back in a minute (literally)

Aw, c'mon, Mistress Rikae, that's not the way to get me lynched. ;) :p

Out of my 3 candidates, I'm taking a punt on the idea of a wolf-on-wolf vote early yesterday, so I'm voting:

++McCaber

No I'm just a clown and didn't read the rules properly ;)

If I can't get Boro, I'd prefer Gwath over Sally.

Oh Sally... If you're innocent learn the better from this then. You guys lynched me in the last game in just the similar way: when in doubt lynch the one who has been controversial. But is exatly the opposite!

Wolves don't wish to be controversial. They wish to be your buddies and rub you the right way. We need to do the "dirty bussiness" to trigger people into posting seriously - the wolves especially.

++Sally

Explanation coming...

++Gwathagor

(edit: crossed with Brinn... great...)

Running out of time...

++Boro.

EDIT: X'd with Sally and Macalaure.

And the last game in which you were a wolf you duped me like no other. Nothing personal, I'm not bitter about it, I just don't want to be fooled again. If you are innocent I'm truly sorry, but I'd rather err on the side of caution than of calamity.

Et tu, stulte?
 

Gwathagor just couldn’t deal with these people. They lived in their own little worlds. Worthless hobbies consume their lives. And they were all mad.

Werewolves?

What were they on? Didn’t they even stop to think about more logical explanations?

Somehow this Nogrod fellow was the worst. He seemed to believe in his own personal creation story. Something about ‘procedurally-generated’ and ‘open-ended gameplay’. As if the existence as they knew it was a game. It was frightening, the direction the world was headed in. These were certainly the living consequences of the Internet.

Gwathagor greatly desired to be among people of superior intelligence. Cultured people. This was not culture. Right now at the conference he could be listening to a Classicist compare Suetonius’ Life of Nero and “Commodus Antonius” from Aelius Lampridius’ Scriptores Historiae Augustae. Because that wasn’t completely inane.*

Of course it was not long before the lunatic nerdlings realized that he did not belong there, and so he was singled out in these sick, primitive proceedings. He had seen what they did to that other one…of course he had not exactly been sorry to see him go, but…

The mob surrounded him – there was no way to escape. As they pummeled and stabbed him, he cried, “I’m still alive!”

The con-goers were not sure if he was mocking them or just crazy. Soon he lay still, and the mob looked down at the fresh corpse with disappointment. He was only a man.

(*This Classicist-in-training wrote about this, so its random inclusion is both egotistical and self-deprecating. Wee!)

~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-


~The Dead~

Leonard Nimoy (Half-Vulcan) ~ illogically murdered by the wolves
CaptainofDespair (Wererat) ~ Crushed on Day 1 to reveal his Dark Side
Day One (Evil Wizard) ~ Brought down alongside the might of Cluny the Scourge
Kath (Ordinary Innocent) ~ Tortured and ripped apart by the wolves on Night 2
Gwathagor (Ordinary Innocent) ~ Assassinated by con-goers on Day 2.


~The Living~

Rikae - Stalker of the preciousss Andy Serkis
Nerwen - Jedi Master, specializing in memorabilia collecting and movie quoting
Feanor of the Peredhil - Rabid Cosmo fan and TOS-TNG Trekkie with opinions
Boromir88 - Fireworks Pyro and Sean Bean's #1 fan
Nilpaurion Felagund - Noldo with a zanpakutou named Telpelin and the Mangekyou Sharingan
Nogrod - "Spore" anticipator who wants to play Eru
satansaloser2005 - "Doctor Who" Luuuver
McCaber - Old School RPer
Shastanis Althreduin - Rabid Hermione Fan-wizard
Brinniel - 'Reality' TV Fan
Mithalwen - Confused hardcore Tolkienista who thought she was going to Oxonmoot
Isabellkya - Rabid fan of Vampire Princess Miyu
Lalwendë - "In The Night Garden" Fan-mother
Macalaure - "Civilization" fan with Machiavellian tendencies


Right, so... Night 3 has begun. Wolves, PM away, send me your kill. Seer, send me your dream; Ranger, let me know who you want to protect.

I was going to vote Nogrod, but this bandwagon against him worries me that I might be horribly wrong. Sally...her voting has been rather suspicious...

EDIT: X-ed with deadline...sorry, my computer's being annoyingly slow.

Votes.
 

Nogrod 3

Caber and Gwath 2

Lal, Boro, Sally 1

~*~

Hmm, all this 'looking more closely at Nilp' will do me tons of good tomorrow. ;) I get to go in a blaze of plus-pluses, and it gives me less things to occupy me--general busyness, I realised, is burdensome enough. :D

Reality Bites
 

The pair of werewolves knew exactly where to find their next victim – all they had to do was follow the obnoxious crooning of Alicia Keys. Climbing up the side of the hotel to the second floor, they slipped through the open window. Teeth bared, they were ready to pounce. But Brinniel was too busy singing, with much passion, into her iPod as if it were a microphone.

One of the wolves came up behind her and ripped the ‘earbuds’ out of her ears. She continued singing for another line before she realized that she could no longer hear the music. Brinniel laughed. She just sounded too good – she couldn’t tell the difference.

But then when the woman turned to look for her earbuds, she let out a scream as she saw the two creatures who had been standing right behind her. They smiled wickedly.

“Pfft, okay guys, you got me. What is this, “Scare Tactics” or something else? Dorks.”

The wolves’ cruel smiles faltered slightly. Then they growled angrily as the girl ignored them, and started searching the room for the camera.

“You are going to die,” one of the werewolves growled menacingly.

Brinniel turned back to them for a moment. “But I thought you could only be voted off this stupid show!” she cried indignantly.

“Stupid girl,” the werewolves barked. Suddenly one of them had its claws at her throat. “This is reality!” they howled, as the claws ripped through flesh.

~*~

Again the werewolves left the gruesome corpse of their victim in the convention center. When the con-ies arrived the next morning, they found Brinniel hanging in the doorway by her ‘earbuds’. They wondered for a moment if the poor woman had found all of this too much, but then someone gave her a poke. The body slipped from the thin noose, her head remaining precariously above.

~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-


~The Dead~

Leonard Nimoy (Half-Vulcan) ~ illogically murdered by the wolves
CaptainofDespair (Wererat) ~ Crushed on Day 1 to reveal his Dark Side
Day One (Evil Wizard) ~ Brought down alongside the might of Cluny the Scourge
Kath (Ordinary Innocent) ~ Tortured and ripped apart by the wolves on Night 2
Gwathagor (Ordinary Innocent) ~ Assassinated by con-goers on Day 2.
Brinniel (Ordinary Innocent) ~ Made really dead on Night 3.


~The Living~

Rikae - Stalker of the preciousss Andy Serkis
Nerwen - Jedi Master, specializing in memorabilia collecting and movie quoting
Feanor of the Peredhil - Rabid Cosmo fan and TOS-TNG Trekkie with opinions
Boromir88 - Fireworks Pyro and Sean Bean's #1 fan
Nilpaurion Felagund - Noldo with a zanpakutou named Telpelin and the Mangekyou Sharingan
Nogrod - "Spore" anticipator who wants to play Eru
satansaloser2005 - "Doctor Who" Luuuver
McCaber - Old School RPer
Shastanis Althreduin - Rabid Hermione Fan-wizard
Mithalwen - Confused hardcore Tolkienista who thought she was going to Oxonmoot
Isabellkya - Rabid fan of Vampire Princess Miyu
Lalwendë - "In The Night Garden" Fan-mother
Macalaure - "Civilization" fan with Machiavellian tendencies


Day 3 has begun!

Your resident psephologist has been waiting to bung the votes on so here goes before I make the tea ;)

Rikae - Sally / McCaber
Nerwen - ??? / Boro
Fea - Boro / Boro
Boro - Lal / Lal
Nilp - ??? / Gwath
Nogrod - Gwath / Gwath
Gwath (deceased) - Rikae / Nogrod
Sally - Boro / Nogrod
McCaber - CoD / Sally
Shasta - Boro / ???
Brinn (Deceased) - Mac / Sally
Mith - CoD / Gwath
Isabellkya - CoD / Nogrod
Lalwendë - Brinn / McCaber
Kath (Deceased) - Brinn / n/a
CoD (Deceased) - Day 1 / n/a
Mac - CoD / Gwath

Well, well... At least my table is now clean as my two most long-standing suspicions eg. Gwath and Brinn are gone... Bad thing is they were innocents both and the only decent thing we have done so far was the lynching of CoD which seems to have been at least half-luck... :confused:

*Looking at the void of the empty table*

So, refocusing then.

YesterDay's voting was interesting to say the least and I'm going back there right now.

Brinn has been killed? Hmm. From the top of my head I can't think of a reason why out of all people she has been chosen. Maybe a closer look at her posts and the posts directed at her will bring more clarity.

Apart from that I have to second Nogrod concerning the voting yesterDay. That was plain madness.

I was able to read through at lunch time and Lalwende continues to ring my alarm bells - particularly for harping on about how she wouldn't survive the night. Hardly a certainty in a game with a living Ranger. And the ignorance of the voting rules .... all seemed a bit contrived "I am just an ordo so I didn't bother to look at the set up thing". Also didn't like her saying she thought I had a special role on day one.

But it is that certainty that she would be killed - yes we all say sometimes that we think we are likely targets but when there is a ranger.... either as someone said a cobbler trying to get a clean kill for the wolves or conceivably a very certain Hunter but we are a bit early for that I guess.

There was something else but I need to read again.