Ok, I was just a bit confused there. But my previous comment still (for the most part) makes some sense.

Yes Legate is making some wonderful points that do make quite a bit of sense....but still. I'm very weary of leaving him around because even though what he says makes sense, it just doesn't seem as probable to me.

Yes, wolves love causing chaos, yes they would love to be able to have some control, and yes they don't like having known innocents all over the place. But the only way they win is by dwindling our numbers down to match there's, and each Day they keep even one more of us alive is another Day they risk getting lynched. Only one of them needs to die for them to lose the double kill, I think they would take advantage of the opportunity as much as possible for as long as possible.

This all reminds of one game where someone thought we should lynch a person being modfired. Practically everyone was against the idea of losing that lynch oppurtunity (since that's the only way for us to kill wolves), just like I'm sure the wolves wouldn't want to give up a kill (since they need to get our numbers way down from 18 to atleast 4).

x'posted since Nerwen

What if the villagers keep to the tactic of guarding likely wolves– and they guess correctly? Even once might do– according to the lore they taught me in Minstrel School, a wolf generally leaves trails to his packmates– we could take it from there.

EDIT: X'd since my last post.

Well, I have to head out for a few hours, I'll be here for the last (atleast) 3 hours before the DL, which is when I will vote and such.

My brain totally needs a break from the chaos. :rolleyes:;)

Not sure what you mean. Care to elaborate?

Now you have not either read my point through or are misinterpretating it intentionally. The Wolves would actually be in BETTER situation, if it went EVERY DAY like this, then - let me show an example:

Killing one person per Night:
Day 1 - Lynching a Seer. Wolves:villagers 1:0
Night 2 - Innocent is guarded and Wolves decide to gamble and kill only one person. Wolves:villagers 2:0
Day 2 - Villagers now decide to lynch the guarded one. Wolves:villagers 3:0
Night 3 - Again an innocent is guarded and the Wolves kill just one person. Wolves:villagers 4:0
Day 3 - Villagers now lynch the guarded one. Wolves:villagers 5:0

And so on.

WHEREAS

Killing two people per Night:
Day 1 - Lynching a Seer. Wolves:villagers 1:0
Night 2 - Innocent is guarded and Wolves decide to kill two people. Wolves:villagers 2:0
Day 2 - Villagers now have one definitely known innocent and choose somebody else to lynch, whoever that might be. It may even be a Wolf. Wolves:villagers 3:0 or 3:1 if a Wolf is lynched, plus one Innocent is known. (So let's call it 3:2 for the sake of making score.)
Night 3 - Again an innocent is guarded and the Wolves kill two people. Wolves:villagers 4:1(2)
Day 3 - Another innocent is known (if the former innocent was guarded, he is still alive), and today the village has its hands free to lynch another Wolf. If they do, it's Wolves:villagers 4:2(+the village has two known innocents, so if we give them points for that, then 4:4!!! And the ratio is getting rather bad for the Wolves. Count it whichever way you like, I hope it's clear what I am trying to say by this.)

Just try to imagine all this situation from the point of view of the Wolves, as that's what is important. Why would they decide the way they did - because it's the best for them. If the village reacts in the way they expect (lynching the guarded person), they get ONE MORE DAY, when they don't have to fear of themselves being lynched at all.

So sorry, wilwa, but your example is flawed.

(I am repeating still the same thing in a bit different words.)

Surely. But just anyway - imagine that the Wolves have to decide in a situation when an innocent, and not a Wolf is being guarded (which is just what happened). What can they choose? I believe this is obvious.

And I agree, I said that it's not of course granted that Wolves don't get guarded and subsequently lynched. But then, if they see the danger coming towards them (like that it seems that several of them are under suspicion or possibility of Guard, or such). And just statistically, it's (I believe, I am no mathematician) more probable for a WW to be lynched during a normal lynching than guarded and then lynched, especially if there were several cases of innocents being guarded before, or such. Also, if people use the Guard function to guard Wolves, they nullify its second positive value, which is to protect somebody they want to have around as being useful to the village.
But the Wolves, creating such a confusion, mainly, would make it that it would effectively nullify the Night Guard as a means of discerning somebody's guilt or innocence, that's the main point. Of course I don't believe it would just be possible to have a game where the village just keeps going like a programmed machine, guard a person, then after the Night lynch the same person, and so on - people will change their tactics at one point. Just note, btw, that that is just what is happening to me right now.

That you keep saying everybody they are good in thinking like a Wolf. "Are you saying this to everybody?" was my question.

Oh, btw, just to add to my post with the examples above, the flaw I meant was this:

My point was that, of course, as long as us villagers keep lynching the Night Guarded innocents, then NO Wolf would get lynched (as you can see from my above examples). So your words about chaos and control are nice, but you have picked completely sideway comment from my post and made it sound as if it was the most important point of my postulate. Not at all. The point was that the Wolves, if facing the choice whether to have a double kill or leave the village in dark, especially as they expect that the village is yet "young" and will lynch their Guarded person, are better choosing to lose one kill, and having a free ride on the next Day. That's more or less it. (Of course the village can choose differently etc., but it's just all too better chance, and also probably an appealing choice, I would say.)

But your argument also nullifies it, doesn't it?

Only if the guarding (and subsequent lack of a kill) was the only reason for the lynching.

EDIT: x'd with Legate.

1. You say "us innocents", which is generally a baddie tell, :p.

2. You're assuming that the village never guards a wolf, which is a bad assumption to make considering there are four of them.

Edit: X'd with Nerwen.

As I said, your examples assume that no wolf is ever Guarded.

EDIT:X'd with Shasta.

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Zil is the only reason you suspect me because I suspect you? This seems a bit flawed.

X-ed with two Nerwens and a Shasta

Look, I hate to leave you all so soon, but I have to go and tune my lute.

Lynch:

++Legate of Amon Lanc.
Yes, you put up a wonderful defence and all– but still, I think we need to see what you are.

Guard:

++Inziladun.

Because he jumped on my vote on Kit, and he's been creepy toDay. (I'm for Guarding suspicious people if there's no-one better, at least while there are still four wolves around.)

EDIT:X'd with Nienna.

Exactly– it's not like we're irrevocably committing ourselves to doing this for the rest of the game, which seems to be Legate's assumption. (He said it wasn't at one point, but actually his whole argument does seem to rest on it.)

Okay, not sure in which way.
And speaking of my case then, was there any other? At least I got the feeling yesterDay that most people thought that I am likely innocent or okay if nothing else, after all that's where these guard votes originally came from. In fact, there is NO OTHER CASE against me than this Night incident. Or at least none that I am aware of.

I am aware of it and I said it already, but that's the point of examples, isn't it? I said that it won't work like that in reality in at least two posts, of which one case was when I replied to you saying the same already once, so I am not going to repeat it anymore. You should just understand the point, I am not saying that it works like that all the time. But it's just an explanation of what it means for the Wolves, that it's not a loss for them AT ALL to forgo a kill on a Night when an innocent is Guarded (emphasise for you). Which is just what happened to me, by the way. Like I already said.

Anyway. I am going probably to have a break for a while, as I have said what I could right now to the topic, and unless somebody asks something specifically new about it, I would leave it be. Everybody can read any of my posts, if he or she is more interested in the details or if it seems unclear to them.

My MAIN points are as follows.

1) The Village should heed this (the things I said) if I die. (That doesn't mean, though, switching to the other extreme and letting it just a free ride for everybody. But the Wolves are pressured, and will have to do something soon, unless you just confirm to their rules.)
2) I am innocent, and saying that it makes no sense for the WWs to forgo one kill in case that I am innocent is faulty, as if I am lynched, then they didn't lose anything by that. (3 dead innocents and no dead Wolf by any chance, from their point of view they know whether the Guarded one is innocent, so they can choose based on that)

Well yea, I see that. Though, could you not decide that just THEORETICALLY? Because you would realise, even if you think of it just theoretically (not practically) that you CANNOT trust the guarding results. Heck, we already said as much even yesterDay. The only thing this lynch proves is whether you were right or wrong in MY case, nothing more and nothing less. Next time it happens, you would have to do it again. And in such case, until you guard a Wolf, nothing will change. And see my above examples.

*shrugs* It's an experiment, Legate. And actually some voted to Guard you in part because you seemed somewhat suspicious, and they wanted to neutralise a possible fourth wolf.

Look– if you're innocent, your death should give us some leads, at least. I'll certainly be looking very hard at people who pushed for it. Besides, don't panic– there's a lot of talk, but you've only had one vote so far.

Farewell, gentle villagers! I'll return to serenade you all if time permits.

I suggest we start discussing other possible wolf candidates. There are four wolves, after all.

EDIT: X'd with Legate.

Did I say I suspected you? I was just noting that you and Legate appear to have a quite good understanding of the Code of the Wolves.

And thanks for the guard, Nerwen. It would help me sleep, lacking a tuneful lullaby from you. ;)

I'm sorry maybe I just read more into your post than you were intending. It just seemed as if you were accusing me of wolvery.

That comes from Shakespeare the least... probably from some Greek cynics or something... :)

But yes. I'm only at post #225... Sorry.

But what I've read so far I'd bet a lot that either Legate or Wilwa is a wolf. I'll try to be back as soon as possible (reading through the rest and having a late dinner).

Pressured? With four wolves and no Seer? I don't get it. (You'd almost think one of the wolves was on the block or something.;) )

Seriously, I suppose you are referring to the prospective accumulation of known innocents? Well, yes, they're a threat to the wolves, but they can't be defended by the Ranger forever. And whenever the Guard has to join in the defence of a known innocent, why, then the wolves can't frame anyone by missing a kill.

I said this already: if Legate is innocent, the missed kill doesn't make much sense (however he tries to explain it) unless Wilwa is a baddie. It's something to keep in mind.

Now I really have to go. Good luck.

Crimy! You're telling me I have to go through all of this...ugh :rolleyes:

And before I do my thorough read through:

You should note too that Inzil has been acting that way towards others, which is why I'm suspicious of him...

To me...
And to Hakon...
Yes he has Inzil, and what's the point if he hasn't?

Looking at the Kitanna bandwagon:

Nerwen is the first to vote for her "jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan." She admits it's weak reasoning, though I think it's probably better reasoning than many others give for Day One votes.

Boro is the second voting her because her reactions were suspicious and the reasons she voted for me. I actually didn't find Kit's vote for me all too suspicious. The reasoning was weak, yes, but it seems like a typical Day One vote and I also was under the impression that maybe she was short on time. Anyway, Boro's vote doesn't stand out to me. Reasoned enough and a bit early to be called a bandwagon vote.

Inziladun is the third voter, voting Kit for her reasons behind voting me. This here looks to be a bandwagon vote and a bit suspicious to me.

Vote number four comes from Pitchwife five minutes before deadline. Doesn't state a reason in his vote post, but in his post before he talks about her behaviour being suspicious, but is still uncertain whether that is wolfish behaviour from her. If he was clueless about whether her behaviour pointed to wolvery, then why vote her? I suppose he could've preferred to see her lynched over the other options, maybe. Slightly suspicious.

wilwa is the fifth voter. Says she does it to save herself, which is understandable. Doesn't exactly point to either wolvery or innocence.

Lommy gives the sixth vote saying she doesn't see why wilwa is so suspicious. Could it be a wolf trying to save her mate? Possibly, though it's not like her vote for Kit came from nowhere since she said she'd been getting bad vibes from her all day.

The last Kit vote comes from Sally. Doesn't give a reason, though earlier she agreed with Boro that Kit "seemed off." Probably the weakest reasoning of the Kit voters. She spent the last hour and plus providing a tally but contributed little otherwise. Now why is that? Seems rather suspicious to me.

So out of the Kitanna voters, in order from most to least suspicious:

Sally
Inziladun
Pitchwife
Lommy
wilwa
Nerwen
Boromir

Ack, my head hurts from all the possibilities!

Oh, just noticed this.

Erm, really? Didn't give a reason, did I? Of course I didn't, how silly of me. Not like I explained why her guard vote made her suspicious to me. Why would I think I said that? It's not like it's in post #115 or anything. :rolleyes::p


I think the wolves would be silly to not make two kills while they still can, but I also see Legate's point about a good frame job. The problem with his theory, however, is that if we strike gold and kill a wolf they can't make any more double kills, and as some others (Wilwa maybe? Heck if I remember) have pointed out it wouldn't be that hard to kill Legate at some point anyway. Still, I'm torn between lynching him and thinking it's simply too easy. Legate, you're not the ranger, are you? ;)


Catching up again and then maybe getting some sleep. Can't shake the bad vibes from Wilwa, but at the same time not sure why I have them. Maybe she'll get my guard vote, with the same theory as the Legate guard yesterDay.


Also, where's Nessa and Alona? (And Hakon?)

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh? :rolleyes:

I remember Mac in Brinn's last game after claiming (successfully) to be the Ranger, but still not dying that night passionately, and in some ways convincingly, argued that he was being set up as an easy lynch. Still didn't take away from the fact that it was a bogus defense because if he wasn't a wolf and declared he was the Ranger, the wolves would have killed him, but they didn't, ergo Mac had to be one of the wolves.

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

And now to other things

A list:

Evil:
Legate
Zil

Leaning Evil:
Sally
Nilp

Leaning Innocent:
Brinn
Boro
Shasta
Nog

Innocent:
Nerwen

No idea/haven’t posted:
Everyone else

Very interesting example, Boro. As I remember it, you've experience as claiming the ranger as well, haven't you? ;)



Anyway, let's just say that if Legate does turn out to be innocent I'm going to feel awful. I think it would be stupid of us to let a Leg-Wolf get away so easily though.


What are you all thinking about guard-wise? I actually have a feeling about Brinn, but I'm not sure. I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate) but we won't know until Sundown if he's furry so we can't make those sort of connections until toMorrow.


EDIT: x'd with Nienna. Aha, that was the other person I thought might be a likely Night kill. Again, just a hunch.

Heh. Watch, I have some sort of mad power in that, instead of saving someone, my guard vote condemns that person. I mean as far as I know I'm an ordo, but Steve could be up to anything. I'm rather afraid now. :eek:

I've got experience at claiming lots of things. :eek: :p

Heh, interesting. Has no one really thought of the ranger saving us the last Night? :)

Well, were you an innocent Legate you'd have thought about it. So were you afraid of stating it as it would seem like a desperate move on your side? I mean the chances of a ranger-save this early in this big village sure are minuscule - but that is a chance anyway and as an innocent you could have tried us to think about it as well? But as a wolf you passed it?

But anyway. Kudos for your brave effort - and by times you made me waver with my judgement. But anyway it looks like you focus on things that do not look like you're honestly defending your innocent self but are trying something else.

Like...

You make a big point how it would be disadvantageous to us to robotically lynch all the "protected" while the wolves would restrain their kills... sure. And then you kind of add that well, of course we might not do that - which is so true. But at the same time the whole argument you elaborated in long posts to defend you collapses. :rolleyes:

Also your argument about the wolves controlling the village are a bit far-fetched. We get "known innocents" only so far when there are two Night kills eg. four wolves. And even that knowledge is shadowed by the possibility of a ranger-save or the wolves bluffing (not that I believe in the second one, it's just against any odds they would choose: too little gain from too much a cost).

Somehow I think I was pretty suspicious of you and even made some points for it - and consequently wished to see what would happen if you were actually Night-guarded... and voilá, there was just one kill!

And anyway. It feels bad to lynch someone just because "we need to find it out" but that's exactly what I feel with you Legate. You're great to play with and looking at your defence one is once again affirming that you have the brains to make a difference, but now there is just too much at stake I'm afraid as getting the first wolf is of the essence for us. After that there will be only one kill per Night and everything will become a bit more less pressing. And sadly you seem to be our best bet now.

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over whether we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

EDIT: Fixed a typo that Sally pointed out.

Sorry, I missed that post...which is easy to do when you have to catch up on two and half pages from the previous Day. So you listed a bunch of scenarios for why she voted to guard Hakon if she's a wolf. But if you were so suspicious of her almost two hours before deadline, why wait until exactly deadline to vote her? I understand wanting to wait a little before immediately voting the first suspicious person, but waiting until it's almost past deadline is certainly pushing it.

And why so many tally posts? Yes, they look helpful, but you posted an awful lot of them and really we don't need a new tally every time someone votes. I think your time could've been better spent looking at other players.

Eönwë said that if it was a ranger save it would be clear in the narration.

The above quote was Eönwë's answer to the question of weather it would be made clear that it was a ranger save or not.

It could have been hard to kill me later, like I said in some of my first posts this afternoon (I think it was my first after I returned), because the Ranger and the NG could take switches in guarding me, if I was a known innocent and the village decided that I am valuable enough.

And if I were the Ranger, I would have probably said so by now.

But is it not true that NG can be used for people to be framed? Anybody can see that it's true, that it can be done (and I alone, and four Wolves somewhere around here, know that it IS being done right now), and the Wolves could have thought of that regardless of who said it in the first place (or if McC is one of them, then no problem of course, but thinking of that, why would he say it aloud on the thread if he were one), or even if some people would not have thought of it themselves, they could have thought of it once it's been said aloud.

Like I said, with all humility, if making two kills would mean making me a known innocent, who could be theoretically protected for the rest of the game (as long as the Ranger stays alive), I can imagine that I am not one of the most desireable people in the Wolves' eyes to get that role, the same like for example you or Nogrod or some others would be. Or is it your wolf pride resounding here, boiling inside you to show that you are not afraid of me at all, because that was not your reason to frame me?

Of course that's "the only one defense I have left", as that's defense against the only thing I have been accused of. What kind of a logic is that, Boro?

Does anyone else think this is funny? "There are other people you could lynch, but you're all trying to lynch someone you think is a wolf." Erm....okay?

Also....whether, not weather. Sorry, English major brain kicking in again. Anyway.

Fair enough. Heh, I figured you missed it, hence the ':p'. If I remember correctly I was trying to stay awake until DL so I was admittedly doing busywork. Besides, knowing my luck I'd get behind and forget to update something. And I waited so long because, frankly, I didn't want to change my mind at the last second and have to use my one mod-given retraction, so I saved the vote until I was sure I wasn't going to change my mind. (And actually, the lynch was already decided when I voted, because I was pretty sure Alona/Nessa weren't going to pop in. I suppose I could have been switched to Wilwa [or someone else, had a case been good enough] had the circumstances been right, which is why I held it so long; I wanted to keep my options open, so to speak.)



EDIT: x'd with Hakon and Leggo-my-Leg-O

A note...

=> A SLIP!!!!????

She corrected it, but she wrote it nevertheless. "I'd almost rather try to guard the fourth wolf (if in fact it isn't Legate)". Well, Freudian slip? You know that you SHOULD write that you are not certain if I am a Wolf or not, because it's not known yet, but you write it as if assuming that I am actually NOT! As if assuming that after dusk it will became known that there are still four of them! Why???

If I recall correctly, the NG was not the reason you were found suspicious yesterday.

++Legate

Guard.

++Nerwen

Me really likes her approach to everything so far.

I'm voting now because I may be able to rush back to my apartment and say a little more before the DL, but there's a good chance I won't be able to.

I find this Legate thing even more interesting than before for a simple reason: what he has been desperately trying to convince us of is actually very close to the theory I mentioned having about him being alive and said I'd tell you later about. It puzzles me a bit that he came up with it too - I was kind of thinking "if he's smart and innocent, he'll say it aloud and I'll know he's not a wolf" but that logic is a bit faulty, no doubt.

Anyhow, to me his defence does make sense. By keeping their kills at one the wolves are, for sure, losing an advantage they have (two kills) but they're also preventing us from using a very powerful advantage: every guard vote with two kills is a seer dream shared by all the village (so it can't die with any single person). If there are two kills, we've guarded an innocent, if there's just one, we've guarded a wolf. Simple as that. I was hesitant to point this out in case the wolves hadn't realised it this far, but with Legate shouting all that to the world (for a believable reson if he's innocent and no further harm done if he's a wolf), that's not adding much to what has been said.

Therefore, Legate being alive does not mean he's guilty. If I as a wolf would have thought as far on Night 2 as I as an innocent did on Day2 (which is more probable than probable) I would have told my pack to abstain from the second kill. And because I believe I'm not the smartest of all the people in the village, a wolf must've have thought of what I just thought of too.

But I'm not claiming Legate's innocent - he could still, according to a simpler explanation of things, be a wolf. But that doesn't make what he and I have said about the power of night guarding as a method of revealing stuff any less true.


edit: xed with Legate, Sally and Boro