Deadline.

Stop chattering and voting.

I believe tis Volo lynched.

Hi. I need a definitive vote count, please, and the narration's going to be a little late since I'm making dinner.

EW - Eomer (Eomer1)
Nerwen - Agan (Eomer1, Agan1)
Lottie - EW (Eomer1, Agan1, EW1)
Form - Wilwa (Eomer1, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1)
Kath - Form (Eomer1, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Wilwa - Volo (Eomer1, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1, Volo1)
Agan - Volo (Volo1, Eomer1, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Pitch - Eomer (Volo2, Eomer2, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Inzil - Volo (Volo3, Eomer2, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Shasta - Volo (Volo4, Eomer2, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Nogrod - Volo (Volo5, Eomer2, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)
Volo - Eomer (Volo5, Eomer3, Agan1, EW1, Wilwa1, Form1)

Did not vote - Greenie, Eomer, Sally

There you go, Fea.

Boro, apologies for posting after DL, but I'm dying with suspense and I have to go to bed soon, so would you awfully mind letting us know what Volo's role was?

Death of a Volo
 

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Wilwa

DEAD
Night 1: Boro (Mod)- knocked out stone-cold
.............Fea (honorary co-mod)- nommed by wolfies
Day 1: Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf
Night 2: No death!
Day 2: Volo - Ranger

Night 3. All those having nightly duties, carry on.

Night 3
 

As the village went back to their rooms, heads hung low from poor lynch, three snuck away unnoticed to begin further plotting. Despite the sweet lynch, they were still quite hungry from the failed kill the previous night.

"I can't believe that just happened" grinned the other Alpha. "Now we know who the Wight is, so it shall be easy to avoid and with no guardian, looks like our fortunes are finally beginning to change."

"Aye" said the last Alpha. "And let us hope it's a seer snack tonight. That will more than fill my hungry stomach."

Feeling a new air of arrogance in their step, the wolves didn't even bother sneaking in, they simply busted the door right off its hinges. Even if they had been more quiet, Nogrod would have seen them come in, as he was still awake busily running about the room. He was stirred by the wolves entrance and rushed to grab a wooden staff on the floor. "Back you devils! I'll throw you all out myself if I have to."

But the wolves were just amused. "All the rangers are gone. You seriously think you can stop us? Bree will be raised to the ground in a matter of days. How shall we prepare this one mates? Slit his throat?"

"Smash his head!" shouted the second.

"No. He looks real delicious. Let's rip out his heart and eat it!" said the third.

"How about we just slit his throat, smash his head, rip out his heart, then devour him? Since we didn't get the spoils of a kill last night, let's have some fun."

The wolves laughed wickedly. Nogrod dropped his staff and melted on the spot.

"Well that wasn't much fun, he didn't put up any fight!" sulked one of the Alphas.

"No fun at all. But he still looks tasty!"

So the wolves devoured Nogrod and they enjoyed it immensely. For he was like a prime cut of meat, and the wolves were dying for a satisfying big meal. The only thing that troubled them now is, somehow, eating Nogrod had curiously made them thirsty.

"Ack! I really need something to drink...like NOW!" gagged an Alpha. The other two agreed. In the corner stood a wooden keg that read Barley's Best.

One of the wolves rushed to the corner and began gulping down the draught. "MMM this really hits the spot." Then the others leaped and began drinking the ale. They drank and partied the night away. Not only did they get the best meal in a long time, but now they were delighting in the best ale. At the same time, the wolves could all feel something weird happening to them. None of them could describe the feeling, but it surely wasn't natural.

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Wilwa

DEAD
Night 1: Boro (Mod) - knocked out stone-cold
.............Fea (honorary co-mod) - nommed by wolfies
Day 1: Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf
Night 2: No death!
Day 2: Volo (innocent) - Ranger
Night 3: Nogrod (innocent) - Butterbur

*Note. The wolves will be able to talk next night phase, but there will be no kill.

It's now Day 3. Discuss. :D

So without a Ranger (which was a bad situation, that's one instance where more last minute voters would have been a good thing), Butterbur was actually the best person they could have killed (besides killing their own Cobbler). Now we don't have to worry about losing anyone else next Night. So one Cobbler gone, and two Nights without losing someone (besides the loss of the Ranger), we've been pretty lucky .

I should be on a bit over the next few hours, and then randomly for the last few hours of the Day.

Now, perhaps we can put Shasta's theory to rest. :rolleyes:

At least there's no kill toNight.

Looking back now, both Greenie and Sally, two of the remaining three voters, had indicated they would not be around. That left Eomer, who wasn't likely to vote for himself at that point even if he'd been innocent.

Well, that's interesting. Better than it could have been, though. Maybe the wolves were convinced by Shasta's Nog-seer sort of theory (it rested, after all, on Nog being last Night's kill choice, and clearly he wasn't), which might indicate that Eomer is more likely to be TBW. Only if Agan is evil, though, really.

Although, you'd think TB might have tried to hunt Eomer last Night...in which case, Eomer might be a wolf.

Eomer I might agree on, but why does Eomer being the BW depend on Agan's alignment?
I don't think Shasta's a likely wolf at this point, but I'm wondering if he might not be Ferny.

It's a pretty big "if", trying to guess who Tom was looking for, really. Eomer looks shady enough on his own.

Because the wolves might have thought he looked like the Seer. They killed someone last Night who looked like the Seer - Nog. Two people were talked about as possible TBW candidates yesterDay - Nog and Eomer - because the wolves might have thought they looked like Seers. Since they went after Nog, who was, of the two, less likely to look like a Seer, that suggests that they knew Eomer wasn't the Seer. They could only know that if he was a) TBW or b) a wolf. If Eomer is TBW, it suggests that Agan is evil, because in order to look like the Seer, his vote for Agan would have had to be right. If Eomer is a wolf, it says little about Agan's role, but suggests that she is not particularly likely to be Eomer's packmate.

Only if he's really cleaned up his act since last time.:p

I have to agree: if TB followed the arguments put forward yesterDay, it's probably about 50-50 whether he picked Nog or Eomer.

In fact, we're now in the same position we were only hypothetically in yesterDay, as regards the wolves picking Nogrod. So I guess all the "what-if" arguments now actually apply. Funny.

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw, That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!

The only thing is, why would they? After all, TBW is hardly on their side. Xe wants the wolves dead, too. What could a Shastawolf have gained from framing Nog as TBW - especially considering he would have killed him the very next Night? I'm not overly pleased with Elfie right now. He has been very quiet, and what he does say seems very much off.

The Volo-waggon.

Nine minutes before DL, our ill-fated ranger had no votes whatever. (Then-vote count: Eomer, Agan, EW, wilwa and Form at one each.)

At 9:52 GMT, Wilwa votes Volo:
9:54. Aganzir follows suit (Volo 2):
9:55. Pitchwife votes Eomer (Eomer 2):
(Next three posts have the same time stamp, but I give them in order.)
9:57. Inziladun votes Volo (Volo 3). No explanation given with this vote; earlier he had mentioned Volo "pinged his radar".

9:57. Volo reveals as the Ranger.

9:57. Shasta votes Volo (Volo 4).
Note: Had previously said little about Volo, other than that he "could vote for him". Vote-post is not marked as having crossed with Volo's reveal. An oversight? [EDIT: Yes, he did cross. Sorry.]

9:58. Nogrod (known innocent) votes Volo (Volo 5):
Uh... so why did he vote Volo, then?:confused: Vote crossed with reveal and previous two votes.

In the remaining two minutes, all five Volo-voters expressed dismay, Shasta (9:58) and Agan (10:10) suggesting the remaining players (Volo, Greenie, Eomer and Sally) all vote for Eomer. However, only Volo himself did so.

So quite a peculiar last-minute bandwaggon there. I don't say it was completely out of the blue– Volo had been talked about quite a bit on Days One and Two– but other than the initial vote (Wilwa's) all the votes on Volo look quite nastily opportunistic.

I say "all" advisedly, however– the fact that one vote came from a known innocent is a useful reality check. Nonetheless, I think it likely that one or more villains had been waiting around until the last minute– it would make sense in a situation when no player had had more than one vote, so they couldn't even guess how the lynch would go. The wolves would of course have the most reason for doing this, especially if one of their own was among the earlier candidates.

EDIT:X'd with EW and Lottie.

It's been a long night and is now four in the morning. All I know at the moment is that I'm not even going to bother responding to EW because if he's going to vote this early in the day for 'reasons' (such as they were) like that, he's no better than Morsul and thus not worth my time.

Nerwen, darling, you say my vote post wasn't marked as crossing with Volo's reveal, but it is. Please look again.

Shasta, signing off (with the beginnings of a royal hangover, and no that's not a reference to Nogrod, ask Mira).

Hi all. Apologies for lack of participation yesterday but a family commitment lasted longer than I had anticipated. Came back home too late.

Not at all surprised to see I nearly got lynched; what is it about me that rubs people up the wrong way? :p

Back soon with some insights.

Just to say that I agree with Nerwen's interpretation here; chances are indeed good that one or even two wolves stuck around this late.

Anogalys (Day Two)
 

#134 - rants against Shasta about how he's obviously not the seer.

#168 - "Stop speculating about who the seer is. Thank you." It's possible the wolves thought he was bluffing on these two points, rather than any convictions he had about guilt and innocence.

#169 - continues arguing with Aganzir

#174 - lessens his suspicion of Pitchwife

#228 - suspects Volo (ok) but also mentions he'd like to vote Sally.


-------

Don't really see anything Seerish about Nogrod. Odd kill by the wolves, if you ask me.

Well, I suppose it would have been expecting too much to hope that the wolves would kill Ferny, so I have to agree that Barley's death was the second best thing that could have happened.
Losing our Ranger sucks, however... And in this light, I'll have to reconsider about some of the people I've thought innocent up to now (especially wilwa and Agan).

Speaking of Volo and wilwa:
We now know he was what he said, but as the Ranger, he couldn't have known what you were, could he? Therefore I neither understand his statement nor your reply.

TEW's vote was very hasty indeed... and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay? In this case, such an early vote would be understandable.
Anyway, I don't think his reason quite as bad as Lottie and Shasta make it look - I mean, if Shastawolf thought Nog could be the real Seer instead of BW masquerading as one, trying to frame him would make sense, as would the Night-kill after that didn't work. Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly; and it would also point quite strongly to both Shasta himself and Agan... but maybe they considered getting rid of the Seer worth the risk.

(x-ed with two Eomers)

(EDIT: make that three.)

My apologies, my treasure. I was reading it with the "reply" window already opened, and I think in that mode those "reason for editing" comments don't appear.

Because he was protecting me that Night, if he was protecting me there's no way I can be the BW because the wolves got close enough to their kill to see who it was, if the Ranger was involved the narration would have said so.


I was really hoping to have more to comment on this morning. I need to go to Church now, and I will be there for quite a while. I should be back on for the last few hours and hopefully have a lot to say.

It doesn't have to be so from a statistical point of view: there's five unknowns among the late voters, versus eight among those who voted earlier or not at all. But a last-minute flurry like that tends to mean something. Unfortunately, it's not that easy to work out who in that group would be the villains (technically, at least, it could be all of them). So, the main questions for me are: were the wolves trying to save someone, and if so, who?

I'm going to have to vote in the next ten minutes. Just letting you all know.

Quiet, aren't you all?

Well–

++Agan again.

Not much time right now, but I should be back in a couple of hours.


Unless the pack was tired of trying to get Nog lynched, or maybe, like I said, Shasta is Ferny. I need to think about it though, whether Nog's innocence makes Shasta look better, worse, or neutral.

I saw it the way Wilwa explained: Volo took the time to say Wilwa wasn't the BW because he had protected her Night 2 and knew she wasn't targeted by the wolves.

With Agan though, Nog was repeatedly saying she was a Cobbler. If she's a wolf, what else did he say that drew the pack's attention?

Yeah, the whole thing is a bit odd. I have a hard time believing that a Shastawolf would go through all that just to frame someone, only to then kill them. Like you said, if he legitimately thought Nog was the Seer he could just stay quiet about it until the following Night and kill him then, instead of drawing attention to it and risking Nog coming forward. The scenario of Shastawolf thinking Nog was the Seer just does not seem likely to me, and to me seems to make Shasta look a bit better (assuming that the wolves thought Nog to be the Seer). Continuing with that assumption (goodness, I sound like Shasta now) then that would make Agan look good too, since he clearly pegged her as a Cobbler (so an Aganwolf would never think him the seer for that reason). Of course there could very well have been a completely different reason that the wolves went for Nog, so I'm not saying that I completely trust either of them..

I also don't like the way EW popped in like that (he did that yesterDay too, didn't he?). He may just be busy, but the tone of it doesn't sound like he feels bad about not coming back, he just seems like "oh, well whatever, I'll just vote and leave and they won't even notice me".

There are way too many quiet people with indifferent attitudes in this game. :rolleyes:

Well, at least the wolves are good at picking out the special roles. :p

I'm not sure I get your reasoning. Shouldn't it be enough that they know I'm not a wolf? Nog attacked me for being "the cobbler, of course" but Eomer only said I was "guilty as sin". As a wolf, I'd be more concerned about a person who was sure someone was the cobbler than about someone who just thought she was guilty.

Especially considering that everyone now seems to think we should give Tom a try on a suspected Barrow-Wight before lynching them. Getting Tom to check Nog would've wasted a chance to get rid of the real one which I find it hard to believe the wolves want. Unless they want to keep her around at least as long as the three of them are still alive...

Speaking of the Barrow-Wight, I won't be very surprised if she's on my suspect list. Just sayin'. (Of course I might be wrong though.)

As for EW, I definitely don't like his quietness either but I must say his behaviour doesn't look very suspicious/atypical of him to me per se.

Nerwen, just so you know I xed with wilwa's vote. I voted for Volo after Shasta and Zil had said they considered it.

How so? Yes, I voted for him because he seemed more likely to be lynched than my other suspects, if that's what you call opportunism. How come the Volowagon was opportunistic but the Glirdywagon wasn't? Just because we lynched the ranger instead of the cobbler? I really don't like the way Nerwen seems to be twisting it, and the same goes for Eomer.

I am deeply amused by this comparison. :D

It's pretty interesting that Eomer goes on to suspect the Volo voters when he himself was the runner-up (and chances were good he would've been lynched instead, even without Volo's reveal). I'm not sure what to make of it, though.

Except he seemed to be certain I was the cobbler? If the wolves don't know who their cobbler is, they may well have thought it was me and that he was the seer.

Given how much he's posted before, I believe it means he's gone for the day... :rolleyes:

I think that would be foolhardy for a wolf: seer Nog probably wouldn't have waited till the very last minute to reveal so it's unlikely he would have been lynched (even more so given that only a few people suspected him), and since the ranger was still alive it would've brought the wolves gambling they could easily have avoided.

Next I'm going to have a look at Inzil, but before that, tea-time!

Thing is, it's not the early vote - it's that early votes and about one short, not-particularly helpful post a Day is all he's really done.

I'm still not feeling particularly good about Pitchie, and I think he and Elfie could well be packmates - but I don't think I'll vote for Pitchie toDay. It's possible my suspicion is primarily because I disagree with almost every word he says. But he is posting and contributing, so I'd be much more likely to vote for Elfie again.

Another one I'd consider is Eomer, who still seems off.

I have to vote early again - I have to run booths and pass out candy to hyper kids after church. :p I don't know when I'll be back, but it'll hopefully be around DL. In any case, I'll vote soon, just to be sure.

Hm, my thought was that since the wolves couldn't kill Barry anyway, it would have made no difference whether xe was protected or not, so even if he protected you (and there's no reason to doubt his last words on that) you could still have been that Night's target.
But yeah, I suppose the narration would have mentioned it if the Ranger had been somehow involved in that Night's happenings. Instead it explicitely said that the Ranger was nowhere around (which I had forgotten when I asked you that question) - so we can actually derive a small boon from Volo's death and remove you from the list of possible BW-candidates.

About the Shastawolf-Nogseer theory, I'm aware that it would have been a rather risky manœuver and not awfully likely. Still I understand how it could have seemed plausible to TEW if for some reason he didn't have time to think it through thoroughly. And from the two games I've played with TEW, it's usual for him to be this quiet until well into the game both as an innocent and as a wolf (not that I approve of this style, and I wouldn't mind getting rid of a submarine if we've got no better options).

(x-ed with Lottie)

First off, let me say that I too am always amused when Inzil plays WW at work. :p

Inzil starts off on day 1 by saying that a suspected cobbler should be lynched in absence of a lupine target. I like it, but it doesn't tell me anything about his role because I pursue my tirade against cobblers even if I'm one, or a wolf, myself. He also thinks that a BW lynch is okay if we don't have other strong suspects because it might be difficult to leave her to Tom entirely, but she shouldn't be our priority. I'm inclined to agree, mostly because we can't know who Tom has already checked.

He questions Volo for saying the BW will have educated hunches about the roles, says he finds him shifty, and states he doesn't like the bandwagon against me. He considered voting Volo (who hadn't played in a long time, though) or Eomer. In the end he voted for Glirdan (who had a nervy edge to his posts).

On day 2, he said Nog as a wolfkill was a possibility, but he didn't see why his suspicion of me stood out from the others - also Eomer's suspicion seemed pretty explicit, while Nog had said I was the cobbler.

He analyses the votes, saying he would've expected Eomer of the Wargs at least to qualify his with a gut feeling; sally posted little so it's hard to say if her reasons were opportunistic (for the sake of consistency I should probably ask what makes a vote opportunistic, but as I've said of sally's vote before, it looked like she simply didn't care who got lynched); points out that to Form, entertaining was more valuable than useful; wilwa's reasons for her vote were better than Kath's (who voted for her for a lack of reasoning).

Then he argues with Shasta on whether Aganwolf would've been more likely to target Nog or Eomer, saying that a wolf is usually more worried of someone who votes for her for little or no reason than of someone who has an actual case against her. Shasta says Inzil was defending Nog but I don't think so, in my opinion he had a fair point. Still, I don't think the argument makes either of them look very bad, it looks more like they had differences in views and the argument just escalated.

He keeps questioning Volo for his weird suspicion of me and points out that on day 1 he voted for someone Nog was suspicious of even though he (according to himself) thought Nog could be a wolf. He considers voting for Eomer or Volo again, but says EW's vote for Eomer doesn't look too good, either. Shasta is either evil, insane or both, and he could possibly vote for Form too. In the end he gave Volo his third vote (just before his reveal). In her vote analysis, Nerwen says Inzil had only said Volo pinged his radar, but he had in fact been quite consistent with his suspicion since day 1.

Today he wonders if Shasta might be Ferny. That's possible I guess. It just seemed so useless to suggest we try to figure out whom the wolves targeted. Also, Eomer looks shady although we can't know if Tom targeted him or not. I agree, especially after his last posts.

I wonder if I should be concerned about Inzil because he is reasonable and makes sense - almost too much so. :p Anyway I don't find him suspicious at all at the moment.

Yes it would. If the ranger had stopped them, they would probably have gone after the BW again the next night because they didn't know they couldn't kill her (that would've been super :D). And if we had just been told, "No kill, the wolves targeted the BW" even though the ranger had protected her, the wolves would've learned her identity. So at least I'm willing to believe wilwa isn't the BW. ;)

I've played with him a couple of times and he's always quiet - in this game he's actually probably posted more than usually. That's why I thought he was innocent on day 1; the previous time I played with him, he was a wolf and posted like two one-liners.

With no kill tomorrow night, I think we can afford to lynch another quiet player today. My first choice at the moment is sally, if for nothing else, for the sheer annoyance that I have over 12 times more posts than she. :rolleyes:

Zil's stated reasons for voting Volo look better at first sight than at the second, in my opinion. He questioned why Volo would have voted for Agan when he thought Nog a wolf, but Volo actually said this:
(my bolding)
From these words, I think Volo clearly meant that Nog started feeling wolvish to him when he was reexamining Day 1 during the Night, i.e. after his vote for Agan; and I remember a Zilwolf used a similar technique - trying to construe another player as self-contradicting when they weren't - last game. As far as I can see, he hasn't made any other substantial point against Volo yesterDay before voting him with no further comment. Now this pings my radar!

++Elfie

Because he's practically the definition of submarine - he doesn't post much, what he does is not very helpful, and his tone feels very showy (as in, he's doing everything for show and not because he really means it).

Phew. I'm here now at last, trying to catch up on yesterDay and toDay. Sorry for the epic computer fail yesterDay (though I guess it wasn't my own fault), I very much hope it won't repeat itself. ToDay I'll be more or less around until DL. Now off to read, comments to come.

Whoops, thanks Pitch. I was lazy and only skimmed the quotes because I thought I remembered what they said. :o

However Inzil was initially suspicious of Volo because of the way he went after me, ie. didn't say a word about me but voted for me because I thought Greenie, whom he suspected, was innocent (this happened mainly on day 1). So even though the quote you provided makes his yesterday attack on Volo look fishier than I originally thought, I don't think I can blame him for suspecting Volo.

edit: xed with Greenie who is strongly encouraged to come and visit me if her computer crashes. ;)

I thought of interpreting Volo's words the way you say, Pitch, but the "yesterday" made it look to me as if he was saying he'd suspected Nog during the Day.

YesterDay I was considering four people for my vote: Eomer, TEW, Form, and Volo.
I couldn't make up my mind whether Eomer or TEW looked worse, since I didn't think they both were likely to be wolves. I didn't like Form's votes, but he seemed as if he was genuinely busy, and I didn't have a lot of time to think. I decided on someone I'd already been wondering about, Volo.

Do you really think a vote for Sally would be constructive, Agan? Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.

Might be true, but we can't know that.
Not scorn, but genuine curiosity.
Ouch. I believe you just made me paranoid, because that's actually a horrific scenario - and not all that impossible.
This strikes me as slightly off - she seems to vote Volo for being weird, while she quite well knows he is more or less that every game whatever his role. It's rather like voting Lommy for being flip-floppy, Kath for missing Day 1, or Pitch for being agreeable. :p
True. A revealed ranger is pretty much a goner anyway since they can't protect themselves.