Mass-revelation (oh, how biblical that sounds!) has it's sides. But the wolf will be trying her/his best too. S/he Probably is going to boast being one of the gifteds, if our seer doesn't seem to have knowledge on her/him... So we'll be having one really big fight today, and if we make a mistake...

This should be given some thought. Reliable three gifteds + one or two living dreamed of's could do the trick...

X-posted with Jenny

If a wolf poses as a Gifted, they are doing exactly what we want.

We simply hang both claimants. Bingo! One martyr plus one wolf. It's happened many times before.

But I expect the wolf will slink in an obscure, unrevealed, rump which we can examine with the bright light of rationality.

Victory for the wolf is now impossible. What matters is the manner of our victory.

Speaking quite frankly and selfishly, I want to survive. Thus I want to get the culprit today. Thus I want a mass-revelation.

Jenny's coming across as far more innocent now, but I'm not ready to ignore the various slips she made in the interim.

It's good night from me now.

Oh and I'm an ordinary villager, to make things perfectly clear, with extraordinary good luck. Though I would quite like to say I was the hunter, as it would boost my chances of living...

I see the point. Sorry to be so dumb as not to see that before. Well my second game also, as with Jenny.

I'm tempted to see your argument being valid and our chances good.

But what is the worst scenario? We find out three gifteds (and the wolf too finds them) - of which the ranger gets killed the next night and the seer will have one dream more, before being killed the next night. If we kill an innocent tonight, and the "dreamed one" being an innocent, and we don't get it right tomorrow, it comes down to:
tomorrow morning: seer, hunter + 4 villagers + 1 wolf
the day after tomorrow: hunter + 3 villagers + 1 wolf

Compared to our situation now:
This morning: 7 villagers, no roles known, hunces only + 1 wolf

I was just wondering, whether there is something like a very-very cunning plan that a wolf would be looking at?

You say:
Well, it would be winning with real style to conquer the village from this point! I just look at the wolves as real cunning ones, sorry... probably I'm mistaken.

PS. Some nauseating RL stuff. I'm checking some exams right now and have some to do before going to sleep (11.15PM here now), and tomorrow is a tight one. I try to follow any action here for maybe an hour+ from now on. Then I may have time between 14-16PM (GMT) tomorrow and then, at earliest, an hour before the vote.

EDIT: added (and the wolf too...) to the "worst scenario" starting... + "Compared to this morning" lines...

I'm beginning (after a half-hour's drive home from work, with nothing to do but listen to the radio and think) to understand the benefits of your revelation scheme. And frankly, I'll enjoy seeing exactly how off my instincts are...I thought you were the Hunter, Ang.

I'm also an ordinary villager.

As my thoughts come to back the idea too, I would very much like to hear Roa's thoughts - or anyone's with some experience of the game. Anguirel sure is a great player, and just for that reason I'm a bit reserved still, and would hope to have more time to think out possible outcomes of the projected mass-revelation. One experienced player taking two newcomers on the hook and taking them where-ever she wishes could be just a good shepherd guiding the innocents or the the real devil carrying them to some other place.

Please, pay heed. I'm not suggestring than Ang is a wolf, but this all seems so easy-going that I start to suspect it a little.

Lets see, here's some things to think about:

First off, sorry for not voteing again yesterDay. I fully intended to vote for Enca, but got sidetracked.

Anyway, I know I'm innocent. Ang is either playing a deparate game, or is entirely innocnet. If I'm not mistaken, we have a seer left, don't we? Or not? If so, that seer has a great many known innocents stashed away, and what with our Hunter and Ranger, that would narrow teh list almost to the point where we could go by process of elimination. Either he's innocent, or hopeing to be saved till last, and that he will have just enough time. Anyway, two votes consecutively for Enca puts him in a great light, but that could be just what he wants, especially considering he's found a way onto my 'innocent' list.

Lommy is also looking pretty good. Consider the two votes from Enca. This can be innterperted as evidence for and against, but I think that it is more against her being a wolf, espcially combined with her insane talkativeness (no offense :p ).

That leaves us, or me at least with JennyHallu, Roa_Aoife, Nogrod, Gil-Galad, and Valesse. Five players.

Gil-Galad has been to quiet and away too much to be really suspicious of being a wolf. I think it would be cheap to be so distant if you were a wolf. But that really proves nothing.

So I have to say my list to be examined is made up of JennyHallu, Roa_Aoife, Nogrod, and Valesse.

As for Ang's idea of a mass revelation, I think that would be an excellent idea. Narrow the list as much as possible, especially while we have so many Gifted left.

What I am concerned about, is the possibility of this mass-revelation playing to the hands of the wolf somehow. I've had to concentrate on those RL-exams, and hadn't have time to think this thoroughly over.

I was just wondering, whether in the situation of us all revealing ourselves - and the wolf being out of any suspicion, hiding as an ordo (Ang f.ex.) - the wolf could still make this a winning game, from a quite desperate situation? Wouldn't a wise wolf just try something like this in these circumstances?

Remember. Holby's set of "probably innocents" were Roa, Ang and me. She could have known for sure only two of them. And really knowing even two from us, would be quite fantastic indeed. Roa seems innocent because of revealing THE Ka at the first round of the game (would really be a cunning wolf indeed to kill her partner the very first night!) and Ang has voted Enca consistently for two days untill killed as a WW (wolf killing wolf again?). But after my name, there was the extra focus (oh, my broken english!) in parentheses: "despite the heated posts" - or whatever the exact wording was. So I believe, she had dreamed of me and knew my innocence and tried to show you, that I shouldn't be worth killing anyhow.

This just leaves me with the question of Ang's and Roa's innocence. They both seem innocent to me, they sure do! But that's just the problem. A very good wolf would look just like that!

Now I know, that this revealment tactics would settle the matter concerning the gifteds. What I'm afraid of, is that, which happens after the revelations. The wolf will know the gifteds and kills them one by one (the hunter is a case a bit different), and if the villagers are Gil-like posters, dropping in once aDay, they will be of no match for the wolf.

I am truly ready to back up the revelation-plan, after some more clear arguments in favor of it - and after done some thinking myself. Mainly anyone clearing my fears of a possible jackpot for the wolf with this and the grounded vision of our enhanced probabilities with it. I'm not against the plan as such, just hope that any more experienced players back it up a bit before we go on with it.

Good night (RL)!

PS: Eonwe: we do have one seer left!

The thing is, there are seven of us innocents left. After this Evening, there will be only six. There will be three Gifted, leaving the Wolf a fifty-fifty chace of killing a gifted, and the Gifted being completely usless. Time is catching up with us, albiet, not at a very great pace, but stilll, the last wolf is often the hardest.

Nogrod, I think it is very dangerous ground when you speak of 'Holby's Innocent List' (ei. Enca's twisting analysis). After all, until she came out and said "I dreamed of him and he is Innocent!" we really don't know.

PS. Work will keep me until 3:30 tommarrow, so anything I do will have to be done tonight.

all that i really have to say is that it would be a waste to lynch me in one day, but if you double lynch me, you will have 50% chance of getting a wolf then, so i say that you have to be very careful, two wolves are down, and we get the third wolf it will be a great day for us villagers, and Nogrod, i would like to think why voting for Jenny was outrageus?


oh and the wolf will only kill me if he feels threatened and wants to play it safe, so if i get killed off by wolves, i urge you to look at the people that didn't vote for me and look at the person that got second-pressure to me.

The Herald's Call:
This "Great Reveal" seems a little too risky to me.

Nogrod pointed out the math (post #283) but with such stylish phrases as:
I don't blame him for the foggy post ending. I can see the advantages to this plan, but frankly I believe we should not be so hasty as to give out our roles quite yet. Lets not just take an idea and run with it... after all I remember one wolf that tricked me into playing his little game which I survived, but only just.

That isn't to say I feel that our honorable Anguriel is a wolf for forging this, but that there is still a possiblity, and we have to remember that we're offering our trust in what may just be a devious plan. Perhaps Ang did not see the math when he thought this up, but the wolf definitely has now. Its a matter of odds, and those might still be far too wide.

If it is the village's want to go through with it, and they have faith in it, I'll do my part, but as for now until I am reassured, it just doesn't seem fool-proof yet.

Gil-Galad's Fate:
Though I object to some of the border-line name calling thats been going on, I quite agree with the general consensis at this time. Partly because I'm guilty of the same "crime", and partly because I rather like having an extra villager on our side. I'm glad that we all basically feel that it is for the better of the village to no longer do away with those who might not be the most productive, but in their own respect keep the village alive.

I'm also interested in hearing his voting reason, as it was promised.

Man, I do so hate werewolf. All that is going on in my head is playing a bluff-double bluff-triple bluff-nth bluff game. :confused:

Anyway, I think Nogrod got some of the math wrong. At least he left out some possiblilities. Consider:

We have one seer left. There have been four nights, and so four dreams. That is five known innocents at least (if two of the dreams were Ranger and Hunter + the seer). At most we have seven (4 dreams, 1 seer, ranger and hunter). We might get lucky and get a ranger save, or at least another seer dream. There are actually quiet allot of possiblities...let me see.

Hmmm. Guys this really is a no brainer. The seer must come out. Just think it over, and know that the ranger will sacrafice himself, and you will get another dream, hopefully narrowing an already small field to two. And taht is a worst case senario. Best case, you have it pretty much wrapped up, if you don't throw it away by waiting one night to long and getting killed.

PS. this post does not show the evolution of my thought prossesses, just the final product, hence the leap to no brainer. Just think about it and perhaps you can draw some diagrams like I did. I swear, werewolf has a hold on my life entirely to great... :rolleyes: ;)

Gah! I'm so confused. Are we revealing, or not? And where's Roa?

And Gil, the vote is outrageous, until you explain WHY exactly you voted for me. Please, and thank you.

EDIT: Xposted with Eonwe

cross posted last time with jenny.

um, where did gil vote for you? am i totally missing it? :confused:

oh and consider this: mass lynching, though i hate to say it. to much liek russian purges or something, but hey i'd martyr if i had to. (and i'm sure ang will hate the thought but i think it is a legit tactic ;) )

Post 159, I think, Eonwe.

Ah, back aways, eh? I agree, that doesn't look so good, leaving that hanging so...

Seer, really you should consider carefully. Though I really think you have every reason and chance to make it work...

Wait a minute everyone!

If we make a mass-revelation, the wolf will know both the seer and the ranger. Then ranger goes, then the seer.

If only the seer comes forwards, s/he will have one more dream and the ranger will protect her/him (as in m-r case), but the wolf won't know, who to kill!!! The wolf must guess from 1/6!

So I think our seer should think this out...

Eonwe: don't forget, that some of the people the seer has seen dreams can be dead already, so the information concerning them isn't outright useful anymore...

PS. Just popped in before the school. Will be back about 2-4 PM (GMT).

Those of you who are resisting the mass-revelation plan because it seems "devious", or because I'm supposed to be so "experienced", are thinking with your lily livers, not your brains. Like a group of hens waddling round their yard and clucking. And I wouldn't be surprised if the last wolf were encouraging you. That puts Valesse in an interesting

What's certain is that this should be all or nothing. If we go for a safe compromise and leave, say, the Ranger hidden, sod's law and the Wolf's vote will put him or her in very great danger by day. Besides, s/he won't be able to guard the Seer for long anyway, sine s/he cannot guard the same person for two nights running. That scuppers Nogrod's recent plan.

Alright. I'm going to demonstrate, at length, why the wolf is terrified of the mass-revelation and will either be using negative psychology-like Jenny-or hen-burbling-like Valesse-to stop it.

There are eight of us.

The Seer, Ranger and Hunter leaves five.

The Seer has had four dreams. Even if we say two of them overlap with the Ranger and Hunter or with dead villagers, that leaves three options. Hopefully only one will and we'll have two, but that might be going a bit too far.

In other words, the proven innocents will vastly outnumber those who remain unknown, and if we fail today a further Seer dream will simplify things further still.

The Wolf's fate will be utterly, utterly sealed. Ignore Nogrod's ropey Maths and worst case scenarios. The only way the beast can expect to win is by profiting from confusion, because eventually he'll be clearly revealed by process of elimination, as the few remaining unknowns are hanged...

As well as the Wolf, though, there will be another group hesitant about going along with this.

The Gifteds.

I can understand that. They have a lot to lose. The Hunter will never get to use his or her cool ability. The Ranger will be turned into marscapone if we mess up today. The Seer's life expectancy will also be short.

But just remember this. There is a time for subterfuge, and a time for heroics. Delay now is fatal. Hasten and you will have eternal fame and glory. Continue lurking because you don't want to be eaten and...no one will remember your name when the tale of our piecemeal destruction is told.

They'll use standard epithets.

"The Seer who was Blind"

"The Ranger who was Negligent"

"The Hunter who was Frightened of Blood"

Do you want that? Or crystalisation as paladins, saviours, close to the Valar themselves?

Step forward, Gifteds. It's the bravest thing, and the most useful, you can do in this game.

!) I don't think leaving the ranger hidden anything like a safe option. It's indeed more daring (and our lynch today must be wise...).

2) Ranger can't protect the seer for two nights, yes, but with mass revelation, not even one... (well indirectly yes, for one night, but the end result is the same, expect that the ranger has some chances of being alive with my suggestion, and thence pose an additional threat to the wolf)

But really. I don't know. This is so frustratingly hard, and so much fun!

But as there is time, I would think our gifteds should hold their horses still. Let's see this through with enough minds to settle it.

You'll look like a prime yokel if the wolf uses its head and detects and kills our Gifteds anyway...as it is probably more than capable of doing. The self-importance of all but the finest Seers and Rangers makes them psuchologically easy to spot after a long night on consideration and analysis.

Apparently, even stupid villagers can help the village to lynch the wolves... ;)

Three, if she revealed her fellow seer.

And people who suspect me, I tell you this: why would two wolves (Enca and the imaginary wolf-Thinlómien) bandwagon for the same person (and their fellow wolf!) on Day1? Why would they have posted evidence against each other (like me and Enca yesterday) and then voted for each other? I don't think that wolves are so keen on killing each other.

My main suspects are Eonwe and Valesse. I don't have any special suspicions against them, but I think the rest less suspicious.

I disagree about lynching Gil. I think we shouldn't lynch him, because no wolf would be so careless as he is. And if he is a wolf he really doesn't play a fair game. Probably by lynching him we would just lose one more innocent. Makes no sense to me.

I'm still pondering, whether I'm for or against the mass revelation. I'd say I'm for it, but I'm sure there's some fault that we haven't noticed in it. And Ang, I didn't get your point against Nogrod's "ranger remains secret"-theory.

Though I know why I'm not so keen on that theory. Many enough villagers have declared their ordoness and thus if the seer and the hunter reveal themselves, there aren't very many possibilities, who's the ranger and the wolf'll probably get him/her anyway.

What I forgot to say in my previous post is that I'm very happy to be alive. When I first got to know it I was so happy and even happier when I heard that we had lynched a wolf. Thanks for killing her rather than me. (And I know that now Ang or someone else as grumpy ;) says I seem wolvish because of my thanking, but I really don't care. I just wanted to express my gratefulness and rejoice the death of one murderer.)

No offense taken, but I have really been quite normal after Day1, haven't I? (Okay, I still have the most posts on this thread, but Nogrod is only two posts after me.)

(And Eonwe, I can't take you seriously when you're having that avvie - are you aware that it resembles the crazy donkey in Shrek very, very much?)

Case Eonwe
No vote.

Day 4
1st - Apologises not voting and gives no valid explanation. Says he would have voted Enca. Says he thinks Ang is innocent, or less probably a desperate wolf. Doesn't suspect Thinlómien because the votes from Enca combined with talkativeness. Doesn't suspect Gil. Suspects Jenny, Roa, Nog and Val. Supports mass revelation.
2nd - Explains the game. Warns Nog about trusting in Holby's lists.
3rd - Again does WW-maths and supports mass revelation strongly.
4th - Asks Jenny for clearance, is willing to be a martyr.
5th - Says the seer has to think carefully about coming out.

That's him today this far. One thing troubles me: Where does he live? What is "tonight" for him? Does that mean that his "tonight" is over and he won't come back to vote? His voting record isn't looking very good at the moment, and one non-voting more will make it look even worse.

Actually, Thinlomien, regarding you I'm not "grumpy" at all. I'm almost certain you're innocent.

That's nice. But I don't know if "grumpy" was the best word at all, but I was just a bit surprised on your quick reaction on Jenny's apology and just wondered would you think the same way about my thanks.

Next time "irascible" will do just fine...

If you bunglers don't go through with the mass-revelation I will sign my last will and testament, and then I think vote for either Jenny_Hallu or more likely Valesse, explaining my reasons for so doing. But I still strongly urge you all to show some spirit and courage by discarding cloak and dagger scheming and coming out in the open.

Seer, I believe you know I'm innocent. So you at least will not be swayed by the paranoiacs who think I'm acting on false pretences. Believe me when I say I am acting, true, supremely for my own good, but with the good of you all not so behind.

All those of you with special abilities have a chance to go one better and be transmuted, like lead to gold, to heroes for the self-sacrificial love of your fellow inmates.

Well, I'm checking in...probably won't be posting much before the deadline, actually need to work today.

Ang, it sounds like you're right, that mass revelation is a good idea. However, if the seer hasn't dreamed about you, I could see you making him/her very very paranoid. At this point, it's the seer's choice whether or not to reveal, and I can't see anything anyone says making one whit of difference.

Therefore...

I'm off to work. I'll lurk and read, and vote later, but probably won't post unless something really strikes me.

I need a Finnish-English dictionary for that sophisticated words... :eek: But I promise to keep it in mind.

Eonwe is troubling me very much, in a way he is very wolfish, but in another way he seems very innocent.

And Valesse is slippery. Everyday someone voices suspicion of her and Nogrod even did an analysis on her, but she is never a serious candidate to be lynched. That troubles me as well.

And if the honourable gifteds wish to come out, it should be done soon since there are always a few early-voters and when there's so few people left their vote is very important as well as the late-voters'.

EDIT:xed with Jenny

And why would Holby have trusted Ang so much that she gave the anvil hint, if the seers hadn't dreamed about Ang?

I trust Ang, but I don't know if I trust his revelation plan.

(Ah, and I'm filp-floppy again. I'm not particulary good at deciding things.)

So, Thinlomien, you're saying you, too, are an Ordinary Villager?

It's no coincidence that only the non-gifteds seem to be in favour of this plan so far. The privileged ones want to keep what they perceive as power...but it's shortsighted, friends, I promise you, it's shortsighted. Please look at the wider picture.

I'm not saying anything before the gifteds reveal themselves, because if they won't do that, the wolf is left with more people to guess about who's a gifted and who's not.

To clear up: I think we shouldn't force them to come out or lie by declaring our ordoness. It's their decision, after all, however wisely or non-wisely they behave. I don't think we're in that bad situation that we should force our gifteds to do anything.

As Jenny said it, it's up to the seer to decide.

Without the seer's revelation, there is no sense in anyone running rampant and calling her/his role out. And I wouldn't be so hasty to jump into conclusions about our self-named ordo's being all ordo's. If I would be a gifted, I would say that too in the early hours, when no decisions have been made, and come out only at the later hour, before the voting.

Meanwhile, we should see, what else we will be doing tonight. What if the seer doesn't see thre revelation as useful at all, or as yet? Then we'll have to lynch someone. And it would be much better to have some idea about it, than just wrestle over this revelation stuff, before the seer either comes to the stage, or not...

If I was the seer, I wouldn't say "I'm an ordo" either, I'd just ignore the matter.

I think Jenny was a bit too eager to declare her ordoness, and I'd say the same about Ang if I didn't believe him innocent...

Now. I think it may be of some use to summarise the position of all of us on this plan-

Nogrod-The loudest direct opponent of mass-revelation. Went as far as to accuse me in all but name of being a wolf, on very ropey grounds. In my mind Nogrod is an innocent dupe, playing into the wolf's paws. The Seer has probably dreamed of him. It's also likely he's gifted.

Yes, if you haven't noticed, if you won't do the decent thing, I'm prepared to extract you. Yes, this will help the wolf if you don't agree to my advice. Which is rather the idea. "Rock and a hard place", indeed...


Thinlomien-hedging around on the whole issue. Won't say what she is, so the Gifteds can "wisely or unwisely" make up their own minds. But says that if they're going to come clean, they should do so quickly. Still, we've seen her quite capable of schizophrenia before. Could be Gifted or innocent.


Jenny_Hallu-was talked round and is in favour of the plan. Claims to be a villager. She may be so; equally may be the final wolf. She can't be Gifted; that would be counterproductively hypocritical.

A similar situation applies to Eonwe.


Valesse-against the plan. Also not indisposed to accuse me. Probably either Gifted or wolf.


Roa-totally silent today, ominously. Maybe dreamt of by the Seers. Maybe Gifted (which would really be sod's law). Almost definitely not a wolf.


Gil-Galad-totally silent. Hasn't opined on the plan or anything else. Unlikely to show up. I hope he's a villager, don't believe he's a wolf, fear he's Gifted, and really, really don't see why he applied to this game in the first place. Wouldn't mind double-lynching him with our favoured candidate, but am utterly against lynching him alone.


And me. Innocent, dreamt of by the seer (vide the anvil situation), boring you all stiff with talk of mass-revelation, and hoping to have some effect. Extremely keen to survive...

It seems that Ang can make the village do as he wants to. Judged only by his posting this day, he acts very wolvishly. But I still believe he's innocent. But a manipulator-ordo, there's no question of that.

Gifteds aren't innocents? :p Thanks for the comments though. You are very able to make those who aren't fully at your side look mindless. Have you ever considered a career in politics?

(And you people aren't probably interested, but I found what's my problem: I have to comment everything though I don't have an opinion on the matter!)

EDIT: 700th post! Yippee!

Argh. No one's online except me. And I maybe have to leave soon. I'm quite sure, I'll be able to come back, but not maybe for a long time.

If the gifteds won't reveal themselves, I'll vote Eonwe or Valesse.

Which again implies that for you to be a Gifted, you'd have to be a frightful hypocrite.

Although with the Anguirelian Inquisition in town, that might be wise...

What is "which"?

It's my departure now...

Bye.

I'll be back.

I hope more people have posted when I come back.

I especially wish Roa to appear.

Alright I'm here! And I've been reading evrything up till this point. (Well mostly skimming.) I agree with the mass reveal plan, but I think Nogrod is right- letthe Ranger and the Hunter stay hidden. It gives me more of a chance for survival.

That's right, I am Holby's fellow seer. Holby left that list on purpose. The poeple I know are innocent are Ang, Thin, Nogrod, and Eonwe.

That leaves:

JennyHallu
Gil-Galad
Valesse

I know who the gifted are. So whichever of you is the final wolf, don't bother pulling that trick.

thewolf is probably knocking off all the innocents