Then he wouldn't have said Fea was a possible Bear, because he would have known otherwise. He probably would have pegged her as a 'possible', well, whatever it is she is. If you really follow your own reasoning, he would have dreamed someone else entirely. But then he would have mentioned something about them. Your logic is either pushing his posts too far or not far enough.

From this:

And there are still enough people here to vote for me. And there seems to be a growing tide against me.

Then by your own logic, he would have dreamed of Fea the first night, in which case he wouldn't have said she was a possible bear, because he would have known otherwise. He would have dreamed of someone else entirely.

Or that he was laying out his dreams. In the best way he could think of. As I said.

Hey guys, sally would like me to inform you that her internet decided to die and she won't be around for the rest of the Day. Carry on. ^_^

See my last post. Fea, whatever she is, isn't the bear.

Anyway, this is an academic point, because Hakon left no clues that would point to the role of any unknown. Or is your argument a roundabout way of saying that he dreamed of Fea and must have found her innocent, since he didn't denounce her as a wolf? Most unlikely. I know Hakon's weird, but listing someone as a possible villain when he'd just dreamed her innocent? Come on.

Edit:X'd with multiple Laris and Loslotes, Zil, and the moddess.

And it can't be something he would have pointed to later in the game, if he revealed as a "these were who I thought was the bear in this order so I dreamed of them in this order"?

And this is assuming Fea is innocent. Which I'm not, as she's Fea in general(and writes poetry).

Yes he lists them as possible bears and we know one of them was the Bear, but he never out right says it nor does he vote for him.

Clearly, since Borangutan already died.

My theory at this point is that Hakon dreamed of me first (since he listed me first), hoping Mira would meta-make me bear; he would have then learned that my role is nothing special, and tried to subtly leave a hint that he learned no evil roles, but that he was working on it.

Which leads to the fact that he didn't actually know Borangutan's role, and therefore Hakon's death was probably actually coincidence.

Well, if you don't think there's a clue to Fea's innocence in Hakon's posting, why are you harping on it? There certainly isn't a clue to any living player's guilt.

This is a pointless sidetrack, Lari.

EDIT:X'd with Fea.

While I don't particularly suspect Greenie (I'd rather vote Cabbie), I also really don't want to die.

And I have a sinking suspicion that everybody's hoarding their votes for a bit of last minute confusion.

And that bothers me because it means I might die, and frankly, my death won't be particularly useful for anybody.

So

++Greenie

I don't like how Inzil jumped on the whole let's get the Hakon voters. I don't like his tone in his posts and I don't think Greenie is that guilty and going by the theory that Fea was Hakon's first dream she can't be something bad as he probably would have voted for her therefore:

++Inzil

Right now it comes down between McCaber and Fea for my top vote choices. McCaber for his vote toDay as his reasons behind it were just terrible in my opinion, and Fea because she is withholding her opinions (I asked her why she suspected the people on her list and she never replied). Also this whole theory that Hakon dreamed Fea is a bit absurd. It doesn't really doing anything except perhaps exonerate Fea, which of course is what she wants.

Hmm...I'm still worried about Fea, but I think I'll give her the benefit of the doubt toDay since she can be an enigma and I've been wrong about her before. But I really would like to hear more opinions from her come toMorrow.

Meanwhile McCaber has been a submarine.

++McCaber

All right, then–

++Fea

I was moving away from voting her before, but now it's starting to look like there might be something between her and Lari, and it's too late to lynch the latter.

EDIT:X'd since Lari.

Deadline. Stop posting.

Wilwa has asked to be taken out of the game. She was an Ordo.

Greenie was lynched. She was the Cobbler.

Lari was killed. She was an ordo. I'm sure Mira will come up with a fabulous narration whence she returns.

The Living:
Brinn
Fea
Inzil
Loslote
McCaber
Nerwen
Nog
Pitchwife
Roa
sally
Saucepan Man

The Dead:
Mira - moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1
Nienna - co-moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1
Morsul - Hunter, lynched Day 1
Hakon - Seer, suffocated and stuck up chimney Night 2
Boro - werebear, throat slit Night 2
Wilwa – Ordo
Grennie – Cobbler, Lynched Day 2
Lari- Ordo, death via fabulous narration on Night 3

It is now DAY 3. Start entertaining me.:D

I had a whole long post written up explaining to Lari why her theory on Hakon dreaming Fea was pretty absurd, and now it's useless. *sigh*

So, quickly before I head out for the night (my time), it doesn't need stating but I'll say it anyways: The wolves could not have known that Greenie was the cobbler. Ergo, her lynching should be looked at as the lynching of an innocent.

Briefly:

Me- you'll have to draw your own conclusions.

Nogrod- put Greenie in the lead. He had been going back and forth about her for since Day 1, so his vote didn't exactly come out of nowhere. His timing in relation to my vote may be coincidence, or it may be that he saw an opportunity.

SPM- his reasons for voting Greenie basically echoed mine, though up till that point, I don't believe *note: I have not had time to read through carefully* he expressed suspicion towards Greenie before that. This is the second time he has helped lynch an innocent.

Fea- also her second time lynching an innocent. Voted Greenie to save herself. I suppose it's understandable, but I didn't at all like the way she went along with Lari's theory. It was extremely convenient for her, of course, but the flaws in it were obvious, as Nerwen pointed out. I also think her post about lynching her not helping the village sounded very wolfish. After the events of the last Day, she looks the most suspicious to me.


Also, not to alarm anyone, but the wolves now make up more than a third of the village. We are running out of time. Lynch an innocent toDay and ToMorrow, and we lose. We can't afford another mistake.

Lari? I had her pegged as a likely wolf, owing to her Day 1 vote, and what I saw as an over-the-top response to the suspicions raised about her. And Greenie was the cobbler.
Well, we're not doing as badly as we might be. The bear and the cobbler are done for. A wolf needs to be found toDay, though.
I still don't have good feelings about Fea, but Lottie is right up there with her now.

So those five look 'guilty'.

Only 'suspects' Fea there. And says Nerwen looks genuine?
So, which is it? Guilty, or genuine?

This ought to be an interesting Day.

x/d with Roa

First off, let me apologize for a knee-jerk reaction on Nogrod. After reading his posts, he really seems good, and to be fair I was pretty sketchy those Days.

So now that I have a good chunk of time to play with here, let's see what we can find.

No, just as that of a non-wolf. People may well have honestly found her suspicious; you can't treat voting her as guilty behaviour in itself. Cobblers aren't innocents and typically don't act innocently. And wolves usually try to avoid lynching whoever they suspect is the cobbler unless one of the pack is on the block. (Whether that was the case remains to be seen.)

As I said, I don't regard voting Greenie as inherently suspicious. The other points still hold, though. (I still don't understand why Lari kept arguing about Hakon. It's possible he hadn't dreamed any of his three Bear-candidates yet, I'll grant that– but that wasn't her theory.)

Indeed, why Lari? She'd practically stuck her head in the noose by the end of yesterDay. It would have been very easy to get her lynched toDay. Were they that afraid of the Ranger?

Here's an interesting point: consider that if Fea is innocent, she and Lari would have surely looked very like the Lovers to the wolves (unless it's in the rules that the Lovers are opposite sex; I couldn't see that anywhere). However, that would not be an incentive to the wolves to kill Lari, but rather the reverse. You see, in this game the Lover-rules are as follows:

So, the obvious explanation is that Lari didn't look like Fea's Lover to the wolves for the simple reason that Fea is one of them. But in that case, you'd think they'd keep Lari alive in the hope that she'd be lynched instead of Fea.

Greenie -> sally (sally - 1)
McCaber -> Nogrod (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1)
Roa -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 1)
Nogrod -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 2)
Pitch - > Fea (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 2, Fea - 1)
SpM -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 3, Fea - 1)
Inzil -> Fea (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 3, Fea - 2)
Loslote -> McCaber (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 3, Fea - 2, McCaber - 1)
Fea -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 2, McCaber - 1)
Lari -> Inzil (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 2, McCaber - 1, Inzil - 1)
Brinn -> McCaber (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 2, McCaber - 2, Inzil - 1)
Nerwen - Fea (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 3, McCaber - 2, Inzil - 1)

Did not vote: sally

OK, I have not got much time and I am not going to be around for the rest of the Day until much nearer the deadline, so some quick thoughts.

Lari as Nightly victim - She was quite high in many people's suspicion lists, including mine. However, I thought that her annoyance toward the end of yesterDay at being so suspected looked pretty genuine. Quite a few people (again, including me) had made the point that there was likely to be a Wolf among the Hakon voters, and so Lari's death points at sally. But, it may be that this was intended. Or might that be a double bluff?

I share the wariness expressed about Fea for her willingness to take on board Lari's Hakon dream theory. But I wonder whether a possible reason for the Wolves picking on Lari may have been to draw attention to this and possible place more pressure on Fea. If Fea is innocent, it would have been clear to the Wolves that she is a potential lynch victim toDay, so it's something that they will have wanted to encourage.

As for Greenie, it is fair to point out that, to the Wolves, she would likely have appeared as an innocent. That said, it is also a possibility that they spotted her as a possible Cobbler and avoided voting for her. Of the Greenie voters, Fea does look the worst, but then she did vote to save herself. I can't really comment on my vote and I am not sure that there is much to be drawn for Roa's and Nogrod's votes.

Other than that, I still don't like McCaber's vote for Nogrod and I am wary of the way that he has come on now and backed off from it, after all the suspicion that it attracted yesterDay.

Given what I have said above, Loslote's vote for McCaber is, I think, understandable. And I am not really able to conclude much from the votes for Fea without knowing what she is. If she is innocent, though, it is quite possible that there was at least one Wolf here, possibly two, taking the opportunity to try to get her lynched.

All y'all shouldn't forget the easiest explanation for my bonding with Lari at the end of day: she had a pretty solid point. (Clearly I wasn't bonding with her because we were lovers or packmates.)

I had already floated the theory that Borangutan might have killed Hakon for less than Seer-ly reasons. The longer I play, and the more I look at Hack's posts, the less convinced I am that he dreamed of anybody he listed.

However (and here's where it changed): I know my role. And I know Hakon's logic. (Sorry mods) He was playing meta even though it was forbidden. Meta reasoning for who my own personal Stick would make her own personal Crazy Bear for her own personal Amusement? If I was using Hakon's against-the-rules logic, I'd have dreamed of myself first.

Hakon's list of people are ones closest to the mod. And I'm the most visible/notorious of those in that category.

And while at first I was thinking maybe Borangutan was sensitive to Hakon's hints, that doesn't really matter either way, because evil people are hyper-sensitive to criticism and suspicion.

I'm thinking now that Hakon's dreams were supposed to go in the order he listed even though they were preemptively ended.

And upon learning that I number amongst the innocents, there was no need for him to throw himself under any buses to ensure my destruction.

Hence his vagaries.

"Don't think of the bear right away" might have corresponded with my name coming first on the list, but that might be stretching it too far. But it is possible that his insistence that we not look for the bear right away correlated with the fact that I was the name one saw on his list right away, and that you shouldn't look at me when aiming for evil.

Then again, he might have just been nattering and it didn't mean anything.

There's always that.

Pretty slow toDay, really. No doubt it'll be followed by a frantic hour or two before DL.

If Hakon had meant us to use the order of the names to correlate with the statement about not worrying about the bear, I have to think he would at least have put those two elements in one post, not two. Try as I might, I can't find any significance in those posts of Hakon's that could lead to conclusions about his one dream. Let's take a look at them again.

That looks to me as if he was saying 'Let's not argue about the bear helping against the wolves-it's up to the seer to find xim'. The plea to the seer was likely a simple ploy to point the baddies away from him as a seer candiate. Obviously, if that was the case he was unuccessful. :rolleyes:

Then, as mentioned, he uses meta-reasoning to say who the bear could be. I edited out the first bit.

Again, meta-reasoning. And Bearomir could have seen that and thought it might be better to go after Hakon early, just on the off chance there was something else behind his words. But, as I think others have said, if he had dreamed Fea or Sally and knew one of their roles, why would he have put them in as possible bears?
That's all I really see there. I'm sure we'll be enlightened post-game, but for now we're left to work things out on our own.
I think any attempt to use that to point to one's innocence is a major reach, and I can only see furry intentions behind it, whether one tries to qualify it or not.
Then again, Lari thought there could be something to it, and she obviously was not evil.
Regardless, I'm leaning toward another vote for Fea toDay.

Dear Village,

POST PLEASE.

Love, Me.

Dear Village,

I second Nienna. Kthx.

Love, me

I thought I was the only one not around and thought I should post first to say I'm around again but it seems it has been a real quiet Day indeed... :(

I'll go into reading.

Ok, I'm here and catching up.

I'm here too, by coincidence.

To start: no, Fea. If Hakon had dreamed of you and found you innocent, he would not have listed you as a possible bad guy. He would have left you out of a bad guy list. He would have tried to hint at your innocence. And the same reasoning that says he would dream you also applies to Boromir. The fact the your insisting on this makes you look far worse to me.

To continue: Having seriously considered the death of Lari, I have an idea. You see, we are hunting wolves, so when we see a villager over-react to suspicion, we think wolf. The wolves, however, are hunting something else all together, and there is another reason a villager may over-react to suspicion. I believe the wolves thought Lari was the ranger. Which means they chose killing her rather than let her live and gamble on lynching her.

To finish: where is everyone? We can't afford to lose to quietness. Those people who haven't shown up yet really need to participate. I'll be around for maybe another hour and a half, and then I have to go.

The end of Day2 was odd indeed...

As I read through those final hours last night I was quite convinced they were both wolves: Lari panicking against the suspicions but also offering this odd theory about Hakon's dreams to make Fea innocent and then Fea running to the stage in the end...

But Lari was innocent.

What Nerwen said about the POV of the wolves actually makes the situation even more confusing. The kill seems to point to Fea and the question remains whether that is bold bluffing (Fea is a wolf) or a set-up by the wolves (Fea is innocent). I would say it'd be a set-up by the wolves, but Fea's insistence on speculating about Hakon's dreams yet toDay makes me kind of worried. Like Inzil said: any attempt to use Hakon's possible dreams to point to one's innocence is a major reach...

I mean I was already baffled on the postings of yesterDay as to why people mulled over whether Hakon had revealed someone's innocence as it quite clearly was not the case?

Let me quote the famous first post once again - but look at the bolding this time.
So why use capital letters there? It's so out of the normal... I don't believe he just tried to say "let's concentrate on more important issues" or something like that. He said it plain and clear that we should not use our time looking at the bear (for he had the answer to that question?). And I can see Boro noticing that - and after finding himself in the shortlist of three - making sure Hakon would not live to tell any more.

It looks like a very solid tactics from the seer with no major concern on his life on Day1; hinting we should look at other problems, casting the name out in the open but not in a too obvious fashion (like mentioning only Boro).

But how does one turn that and the other "infamous statement": into a "revealment" on anyone's innocence?

I guess that's as good an explanation for it as anything else.

Pitch said he would probably not be around toDay. I do wish Lottie would appear, and explain why in one post she calls Nerwen 'guilty', and in the very next apparently believes her innocent.

x/d with Nog

McCaber: As you seem to be around, why don't you share your thoughts on people as I don't quite remember you saying too much in this game thus far?

Nog, I never said that Hakon conclusively said anything about anybody's innocence. Because he didn't conclusively say anything at all except that he was using forbidden logic.

That being said, he definitely dreamed of somebody, and since I don't think he dreamed of Boro, that leaves me to wonder who he did dream of. If he didn't dream of Boro, then the logical conclusion is that he dreamed of one of the other people he mentioned. Hence, maybe he dreamed of me, maybe he didn't.

This really has been a dead day... I was gone for hours and was expecting a slew of posts upon my return. Apparently I expected wrong.

Let me think for a bit and I'll get back to everyone.

I'm here. Getting caught up. Shouldn't take long - we're still on the same page.

Fea, what logic possibly draws you to the conclusion the Hakon did not dream Boro? He told us to not worry about the bear, then he listed possible bear suspects, one of whom was the actual bear. You're grasping and it's not fooling anyone.

About the Nerwen confusion: I honestly have no idea. I didn't realize I'd added her in that first list. I was still sorting my thoughts out. That first list really wasn't very good - I forgot McCaber and included Nerwen. Major oops. Sorry.

EDIT: xed with Roa.

And what's the point of speculating Hakon's possible dreams anyway as there is nothing conclusive - or even things that could be read as hints in any half-reliable way?

Even if you say that Hakon's posts are not conclusive Fea, I don't understand why are you continuosly referring to them as possibly showing you're innocent? Or at least that we should take them as pointing towards your innocence? Or to just only underline the possibility that they might point to your innocence if read on the "right angle"?

Isn't that a bit deliberate?

And still, looking at what happened actually suggests a different interpretation.

Wait - so first you say there is no point in speculating, then you say there's a different interpretation? Care to clarify?