Because wolf-on-wolf only works when voting for one's fellow wolf will create a favorable outcome. The wolves have already lost someone, and Legate is already under suspicion. It's one thing to vote for a fellow wolf when they're behind someone else by three votes and there are three wolves remaining. It's another situation entirely when there are only two wolves left and the village is quite likely to lynch one of your number.

And look at #271. A lupine "counting-slip"? You know what I mean: wolves sometimes accidentally subtract themselves from the total number of baddies left.

I don't say that's proof– innocents can make "wolf-slips" too– as we've seen all too recently– but it is another reason for Menel to be looking a lot worse to me all of a sudden.

EDIT:X'd with Menel.

...You can't be serious...

...What did I do?

Okay, a wolf would certainly throw its packmate under the train if there were enough votes that said beast would have died anyway, but Legate only had two votes by the time I'd posted. That's really early to abandon Legate to the noose.

Do you really mean you didn't know that voting a packmate already on the way to the gallows is part of the ABC of Wolf Tactics? And if you didn't, then on what grounds is it that you suspect me or Shasta?

EDIT:X'd with Menel.

And who else did you suppose was likely to be lynched toDay?

Besides– jumping on the bandwaggon when one's packmate has already received so many votes that he is *certain* to die... barely counts as a tactic at all, since it won't make you look the least bit more innocent. Again, do you really not know this?

My apologies. I honestly cannot remember a wolf ever doing this.

Although I have been away from the site for three years, and there is probably a lot I have missed.

I suppose, then, that I will have to keep Kath as a possible wolf even if Legate is innocent.

All right... I have no idea what to think about you now, Menel. Wolves were certainly doing what I described three years ago– but I don't think you were playing much then. And if you're a wolf, you've been in a pack with The Evil Cupcake + someone else at least equally experienced for several Nights– you'd think they'd have given you some lessons.

So that speaks against you being a baddie... but then there's the other things I've mentioned. I don't know...

Three years ago, I got killed on Day 1 a lot.

Oh, and Menel, I'd appreciate an answer to my earlier question: if you didn't know this was a tactic, how is it that you thought Shasta or I might have been using it yesterDay?:confused:

EDIT:X'd with Menel.

I figured that it was the very end of the day and bringing Sally's post count to two would not affect the outcome due to Nogrod already having two votes. It was down to the last few minutes before dawn and a three-way cross-post, so the wolf only thought it was contributing one vote.

Back and reading. Menel, what...? :eek:

Actually, I had just seen Nog's vote when I posted mine, and thus thought I was casting the third vote on Sally– but that's rather beside the point. Are you saying that, in your eyes, this supposed solitary wolf would have been actually making a safe vote on Sally?

Perhaps. Although, the way you put it, that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf.

I believe so too... but I'm not sure you would've been as quick to turn against me in wilwa's fairytale game when I made the slip you mentioned earlier if our victory had only been a question of the whole pack surviving through the day.

I'm only ever good at finding wolves when they start suspecting or disagreeing with me. ;)

Just pointing out that this looks like Menel knew Legate is a wolf. But then, slips are not always slips, and my gut is still more concerned about Nerwen.

Okay I'm going now. Goodbye, and good luck.

The point I am making, Menel, is that even if there was wolf-on-wolf voting at the DL, it could not have been "safe" voting. Unless you think a Shastawolf was *sure* Nog wouldn't vote for Sally after all, or that I would vote for Nog... or... something...:confused:

Umm... OK, I admit I had already written you off for voting that close to the deadline and had to think of the most likely possibility out of the alternatives I mentioned previously.

My brain has officially turned to mud now. I think I'm going to go to sleep before I start babbling insanities on this threaOOH LOOK BUNNIES*crash*

Menel is mind-bogglingly confusing and it's gone nearly four in the morning. I'll re-read when I wake up.

++Legate

Edit: X'ed with the mindboggler himself.

It does, however he follows it with
Which looks bad enough in its own right, I think– but doesn't have quite the significance of that sentence taken by itself.

Still not liking Menel one bit, though...

EDIT:X'd with Menel and he who is more radiant than the sun

Anyway–
++Legate of Amon Lanc

Hopefully, he will sprout fur.

...If he doesn't after all, though, we're going to have re-think matters– I would be seriously considering my Menel + Kath theory, for a start (even if it did come out of a panic). Just a thought.

Well, I see no reason to not vote as well.

++ Legate

That would be something I'd call an understatement... :)

But unlike Day2 when everyone just used their time discussing G55 and ended up lynching her, I think this Day has been much more productive in actually looking ahead in case Legate is a wolf (which to me is hard to believe he's not). But even like it is, we still have a lots of food for thought for toMorrow.

It really seems the absence of a wolf-wagon yesterDay is the key. So why didn't it happen, because the wolves were tactically inept, not bold enough to go for it, unable to do it (early voting), went for a more complicated way... :smokin:

Well, the simplest explanation is that the remaining wolves are Legate (had to vote early) + Menel (lost in timezone limbo). At the time Legate voted, you, Nogrod, must have looked pretty lynchable.

However, we should consider other possibilities, certainly.

Legate + Kath

As I've said already, it could in fact be Legate + Kath, with both having to vote early, before any innocent, and Kath deciding following Legate's vote on Nog would be too much of a giveaway. Against this is– well, probably other things, too, but the one that occurs to me is the tone of Sally's vote-post, where she sounds like she thinks she has decent chance of surviving. Likely she was still expecting rescue at that time (13 minutes to DL). It is possible, though, that she was relying completely on her Ranger-hints to frighten off voters.

Menel + Kath
If Menel is a wolf, some of his statements toDay might fit his being Kath's packmate rather than Legate's, in which case the early-voter plus lost-in-time voter scenario would still apply. We must wonder though, why Kath did not follow Legate's vote, which, in this scenario, would then have been the desired innocent-on-innocent vote.

Shasta + ?
*shrugs* Well, my treasure might have decided that trying to rescue Sally at that point just wasn't worth the risk. While I am fairly satisfied now with his account of himself, it's true that some of his actions near the DL could be seen as stalling.

Nog + ?
Well, I suppose Nog versus Sally might really be one of those apparently insane wolf-on-wolf acts that can actually pay off in the end, just because after that nobody will ever believe the survivor can be furry.

Nerwen + ?
Sure. Like I'm going to make a case on myself.:p

Agan + ?
...All right, this is getting silly. ('Course if she turns up alive in the morning, that might be different.)

Okay, sorry for completely losing toDay, folks. On the good side, I am done with my exams for this term, so I can't really feel bad in any way now. The village still has a couple of Days before becoming totally doomed. In any case, it was nice to play, and I turned out to play a lot more, at least in the first two Days, than I had hoped to, so pretty good.

Since I am going to the gallows anyway, I think there is not much more for me to do. I can self-vote in order not to get modfired before I manage to get lynched or somesuch ;) And just in order to make it an unambiguous vote.

++Legate of Amon Lanc

Autographs only at the airport, please.

I wish y'all fun for the rest of the game... and I wish all luck to the side I am on. (So that I don't give away any spoilers.) I shall be following the game's progress with great interest.

Farewell, Legate. Whatever you are, thanks for being such a good sport about it all.:)

The morning began with cheers. The good ranger had bought them another day of survival. The celebrations were short-lived. Two fiends remained, it was their duty to preserve what was left of their village.

“Who voted Sally?” “Who defended Sally?” “Who ate all the cheese?” These questions bounced off the walls all day.

“It's Legate,” eventually became the rallying cry. The local bard was working with Sally.

Legate scratched his head. He knew better than to fight the tide. While his neighbors deliberated on just how to string him up he quietly slipped out the door. He had a chance of survival if he moved fast enough. Running as best he could against the snow, ice and wind Legate made his way to the Brandywine.

The white wolves were waiting on the far side. It dawned on Legate they hadn't been fed their nightly Hobbit yet. He did an about face and took off back toward the village. The wolves were much faster. The alpha male ran across the frozen river, jumped him and with the help of his mate they dragged Legate back. A small contract fell out of his pocket as he was taken away to be devoured.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Nogrod
Aganzir
Kath

Agan sat up, sharpening her sword. She had been lucky the night before, but she knew her luck couldn't last. She just waited.

It was after midnight and nothing had so much as sniffed at her door. She continued to wait. Somehow she dozed off and awoke to the sound of breaking glass. Gathering up her weapons Agan pulled on a cloak and went out to face her foe.

The wind kicked up the freshly fallen snow. Its bitter gusts cut through her clothing, but still she soldiered on. There were shapes in the darkness. She'd be a fool not to know that the final fiend had brought the wolves into town. Steeling herself for the worst she brought out her sword and ran for the moving shadows before her.

In the morning her cloak was found, ripped and bloody. The villages' only source of protection was gone.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf
Aganzir – Walked out to meet her fate on Night 5, Ranger

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Nogrod
Kath

Day 5 Begins

Just popping in to state the obvious for now... :rolleyes:

So five people, one of them a wolf: 4-1.

That means we have two attempts to get it right (heh, I have played that three-player last Day poker for two or three times and have always being an innocent and ended up being on the losing side... so let's hope we can win it already toDay).

So let's keep all the possibilities open and try to suspect everyone. And none should take those suspicions personally or get annoyed / hurt because of them as what we need the least toDay is retaliatory action between innocents.

To me the situation looks kind of two-fold: either there is a lame-duck wolf (Kath or Menel) who was not able to try and save Sally, or then a sneaky one who thought trying to save her at the last moments would have been too risky (aka. Shasta or Nerwen).

I'll try to take a decent look of all those possibilities & re-read yesterDay later in the evening.

But it would be nice to hear from you others as well...


PS. I'm going to be helping my mom with the laundry tomorrow the few hours around the DL so I might not be able to concentrate any deeper into the game then, but I should be able to take part at some level.

I have no idea toDay. Nog, Shasta, Menel, Nerwen.

Day 4:
Nog - states no one tried to save sally and thought this was odd. Then responds to Agan's post about Legate possibly being a wolf who had to vote early. Says if Menel was the last wolf it would make sense that sally was left alone to die - I didn't follow this yesterDay. Can you explain further Nog? Says Shasta had both gone against sally and spoken of Legate as being suspicious - so perhaps not the third wolf.

Shasta - despite being pretty determined about Legate, suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves. Would like to see his opinion on this toDay now we know Legate is a wolf. Arguing more against Menel being a wolf. Points out we have slightly been assuming Menel innocent based on the feeling Inzil might have dreamt him.

Menel - thinks Nog and Shasta aren't wolves as their votes put sally in the lead. Thinks Nerwen's late vote for sally could be wolf-on-wolf - fair enough, weren't many options by that point. Votes Legate following the general reasoning of yesterDay. All these possibility/elimination posts are a bit off. He did seem to discount everyone but Legate at one point, leaving no third wolf. Then almost re-did it and came up with Nerwen and Shasta as other options. I mean, I agree, I just think it was oddly done. Votes Legate.

Nerwen - points out that sally nearly was saved and Nog nearly died instead. It was only the exact last minute votes of Shasta, Nog and Nerwen that stopped it and it seems they pretty much all cross posted. Was the rule that whoever hit the most votes first was lynched? Nog voting for sally to put them at a draw could have been an attempt to limit the damage from sally's POV the next day if both were wolves. Shasta and Nerwen's simply throwing a wolf under the bus because they believed the other innocent was going for sally. Asks if the last wolves are Kath and Menel, thus ignoring Legate. Can't believe this would be deliberate but might just not have thought about it. Takes back idea but thinks Menel could be the last wolf. A 'lupine counting slip' in 271 - well, potentially.

To me, Nerwen or Menel feel more likely. Menel is perhaps getting a little overwhelmed with last wolf duties. Legate wasn't around yesterDay to give any guidance or give Menel something to go with. I think Nerwen's sudden 'Menel and Kath' thing was a bit like her earlier Day's 'so and so is suspicious - go' thing. Poking for reaction and seeing whether she can run with it.

This is where I am right now. There is another hour before I have to vote. If anyone else could talk in the meantime that would be fab.

Seems that was a vain hope then.

++NERWEN

There felt to have been a bit of a forced push for a Menel-wagon, largely led by Nerwen and Shasta. I had seen more to worry me in Nerwen thus the vote.

Oh my... after a busy day I have spent the evening both watching football and writing Arda Cup match-ups - and totally forgotten about this. :(

Soo, we have the first vote (one out of five) already. And no one else posting but Kath thus far, and she is voting early again... Bad. (yes RL is nasty with some deadlines, but still)

I need to take at least some time now to try and give my two cents on this - even if the Arda Cup match I'm writing is in a really tight situation... :rolleyes:


Hoping to hear from you others as well!

Kath - probably isn't a wolf. For mainly two reasons.

First she didn't follow Legate's vote on me on D3 when she had a chance - and the wolves were so close to winning the game at that point that she should have tried it were she a wolf. Now I think it was Shasta who asked whether she had suspected me earlier aka. would that have been a too hard a turnaround from her to suddenly vote me. But I think there were enough reasons to vote me on D3 as I had been one of the leading forces lynching two innocents in a row: so I don't think it would have been too risky for her to say "Yeah, Nog looks so bad now that I'm going with him as I'm short on time"...

Secondly she voted Legate quite early (again) yesterDay, but there was already a vote on Legate by Agan and at least I had voiced suspicion on him. So if she is a wolf, she would have wilfully aided with the downfall of her only mate - and on that Day she had actually made a more or less full analysis of us people left in the game, so she could have picked any other line of reasoning if she needed to help her comrade and willing not to be left alone...


Menel - I do find quite suspicious. At times I'm kind of feeling he's just a bit out of touch (see his discussion with Nerwen yesterDay) but there are things making me suspect him - apart from the general suspicion he seems to gather now as he did then years ago...

First, him having time-zone changing problems when Sally was lynched would fit nicely into the question why was Sally not helped (or why Sally possibly looked forwards to someone saving her at the last minutes - as she didn't know about the problems Menel was having?), as he didn't vote at all on D3 when Sally was lynched.

Secondly this little quote from yesterDay spotted by Aganzir really makes all my radars go red (if she hit it right, I will bow to her for that, helping us from beyond the grave): Just how on earth could anyone but a wolf-fellow of Legate say something like that?

Actually it looks so bad I'm almost ready to vote Menel now... (didn't know it when I started this post intending to make a few checks on all of you)

Well, I'll try to check Nerwen and Shasta for a few points I have in mind as well, but Menel looks pretty bad, I must say.

Shasta - I was a bit amazed by you talking about Sally's "ranger hints" which made you wawer... and I had hard time spotting it until I found this like now: So was that it?

Well, to be straight I can understand it coming 10+ minutes from the DL, but anyway... you sound pretty jumpy if that was what alerted and confused you for real. At least I took it as a normal Sally-talk and more like a sign of guilt than an innocent role (wouldn't she have cried a lot louder if she was the ranger?). :)


Nerwen - I know you are the sneaky one if you need or want to, and I could persuade myself to think you saved me on D3 just to make yourself look better by lynching Sally at the last minute (when I had already given up and thought I was lynched a minute before the DL as I was then the first to gain the highest vote).

Also, Kath suggested you were trying to suggest Menel and Kath ignoring Legate yesterDay, but after checking that I find that was readable from your post, but perhaps not exactly to the point.

And it is hard for me to believe you were wilfully lynching your mates in crime two times in a row, especially as you had suspected me a lot from the very beginning and when the competition was between myself and Sally, it would have been easy for a lupine-Nerwen to vote me on that Day the wolves were so near victory...


So it leaves Menel as my top suspect toDay.

If we lynch him and he is not a wolf, then it requires some further thought and throwing away many of the premises I have now, but unless some extraordinary things or arguments come to light, I'd say Menel is our best bet.

So far, I've viewed Nogrod as innocent and I have no reason to change my views on him.

Kath, I agree, probably isn't a wolf because of her helping to lynch both Sally and Legate.

That leaves Nerwen, Shasta, and yours truly.

I am not a wolf.

Nerwen and Shasta both voted for Legate and Sally, but only when both were beyond salvation. Nerwen was the last of the two to vote, but I don't know how much that signifies.

All in all, I'm pretty sure the last wolf is either Shasta or Nerwen, and I'm leaning more toward Nerwen.

Because of a reason X or because she has one vote already?

So why Nerwen over Shasta by you?

As mentioned above, she voted for Sally after having read your vote-post for her, unlike Shasta who was cross-posting instead. As the debate was mostly whether or not to vote for you or Sally, she was probably hoping to kick you off instead. Once votes were adding up for Sally with the deadline in sight, that's when she decided it was a lost cause.

Again, that's simply an expansion of why her having the last vote might make her slightly more suspicious, but not by much.

That said, I am also considering Shasta as the last wolf, especially for the way he jumped on "Galwolf" in the G55 bandwagon after the latter's "frustrated innocent" post started to sway some people.

Being A True & Faithful Account of Meneltelmacil's Day 4 Suspicions
 

#257.
Nog and Shasta "don't look like wolves". Thinks I might still be, as Sally was "beyond saving" when I voted. Either Kath or Legate might be a wolf who voted too early.


#262.
#271 Menel has now re-thought his suspicion of me. (because our votes crossed.) Menel now thinks either Legate or Kath is a wolf, but "only one of them". [To quote Shasta at #273, "Where's the third wolf, Menel?"]


#274 Suddenly "our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen". This is because wolf-on-wolf voting at DL on Day 3 is "the most likely possibility". (Wolf-on-wolf voting Day 4 is, on the other paw, almost inconceivable, therefore Kath cannot be a wolf– and neither canMenel himself.)


[After some back-and-forth with Shasta and myself]
#289. Kath is now a possible wolf again.


[After more dialogue with me]
#293 Late Day 3 Sally voters are suspicious because "the wolf" must have thought Sally safe from lynching, anyway.


[After I pointed out that my vote crossed with Shasta's only.]
#296.Still believes Sally was "safe" at DL, but "that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf".


After I argue that, whether there was wolf-on-wolf on not, it could not have been the "safe" voting he insists it was, he finally concedes:
#300

And toDay, as you see, I'm Menel's chief suspect again. For, as far as I can work out, the very reason he finally eliminated me from suspicion yesterDay. Amazing.:smokin: