++Enca

Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me

edit: cross-posted with everyone since my last post

Hey, I didn't even register that! What the-?:eek:

EDIT:x'd with Kit.

To be clear, my summary did not include every detail of Kitanna's posts, just the points that stuck out to me.

Since you keep bringing this up, I suppose I should address it. I hadn't until now because I thought it was fairly obvious that I was joking around. G55 and Eomer had been going back and forth, so I jumped in with a joke post. Lightening the mood, as it were -- we do play this game for fun, right? -- though it seems to have backfired.

I'm going to go back and attempt to summarize the posts from Inzil and Eonwe, who are my two remaining suspects.

Well, Kit, now that you're here-

Indeed. Meaning what?

Seemed to me that she meant "it's possible she didn't mention any lions which would make her a random choice". In fact, that's the only way the stuff about Mac and Volo makes sense.

Suspicious
Macalaure - His infamous "on your side" -slip notwithstanding, I'm uneasy about the way he explained it afterwards - yesterDay he tried shrugging it off with a "yikes" and a smiley, then returned to the issue again toDay with a nonchalant "I don't really know how that happened". I would have thought an innocent accidentally making what looks like a lion slip would have explained himself already yesterDay. Bold lion, or bold bear? Although why the bear would make such a show of himself goes beyond me.

Suspicious-ish
Coppermirror - A nagging gut-feeling from the phrasing of the "oh no, the Seer is dead" -comment, and the slightly shaky reasons behind the vote for Eomer.
Kitanna - Confuses me. I'm not sure what to make of her saying that Gal didn't mention any lions (although it's more than possible that I just didn't understand what she meant), and I agree with Lommy about the strangeness of people defending her so strongly when nobody really suspects her.
Lommy - She keeps making me laugh, but that aside, she acted quite oddly yesterDay. She seems a bit more like her normal self toDay, but her yesterDay's frivolous twitchiness still puzzles me. She hasn't been a wolf in ages so I'm thinking a possible Lommylion who overdid "acting like a normal, cheerful Lommy despite being a bad guy this time, mwaha" yesterDay and has had time now to get her bearings and calm down.
Loslote - As I said, I don't really agree that the placement of her vote as the first of the Skipwagon makes her look more innocent. I don't think so. It was a really easy vote as Skip had made a good target of himself and, if I recall correctly, people had already started voicing suspicions of him by the time Lottie cast her vote. On the other hand, some of her other posts have given off a slight innocentish vibe.

Kingdom-under-the-Reindeer/no idea
Inziladun
Eönwë
Boromir88
Nerwen
WythDryden
Gil-Galad
Sally

Leaning innocent
Eomer - Could be a really composed Eomerlion (incidentally, why does every name sound epic when you add "lion" to the end?), but I think his response to Nog's grilling question looked innocent.
Encaitare - I'm actually not sure if I've ever played with her before, but I've seen nothing to make me alarmed this far. I disagree with her on some points, but her reasoning strikes me as innocentish.
Rikae - I seem to disagree with her about a lot of things, but I also feel pretty okay with her at the moment. Sharp, reasonable, and more laid-back than I think a Rikaelion (honestly now, that sounds like the name of a David Eddings trilogy!) would be.
Nogrod - No alarm bells. (I wonder if this means he's in fact a Noglion since I always suspect him when he's innocent... :rolleyes: )
Volo - Still feeling pretty good about him.


EDIT: Oh my, x-ed with a host!

As much as I see the point to vote for Mac, i am always weary of day one bandwagons. Skip fell victim to it and Mac was really close. I am willing to give Mac one more day.

Zil does sit odd with me as well, but being rather talkative at the beginning and then getting some backlash.

I don't see enough from Eomer to make him a guilty person. Being quiet is almost as bad as talking a lot in these games.

Enca has been downplayed and helpful, to a point that flying under the radar is obvious.

I will think before i vote in the next couple minutes.

X'd with greenie

I'm not super happy with the three who have already got some votes; I don't suspect Encai or Eomer and have no idea about Inzil. I'd prefer Mac or Kitanna toDay, would be okay with Lommy, Copper or Loslote too.

That was actually kind of mind-blowing - and I know I read the very same sentence earlier myself but didn't catch it... Now this would be a slip of the year indeed! I mean yeah, how does she know she didn't mention any lions unless she knew who they were aka being one herself?

Could it be this easy? Probably not...

But I'm going to go back and see whom she actually left without notice (the first part of her list everyone - mysef included - have kind of ignored as "not seerish").


EDIT: X'd like billions (didn't realize there was a new page already in full speed...)

Note: As I begin this post, there are 45 minutes left toward the deadline. So, this will not be an exhaustive post, but I will make note of things that stand out to me.

Inziladun

Page 1, notes that the Lovers can choose which side to support, and change at any time.

Page 2, says the Lions should be the main focus, not the Lovers, and agrees with Kitanna that a Cobbler is not the worst that could happen.

Page 3, says that he is leaning toward suspicion of Skip, because of the Targaryen reveal stuff, and his "seemingly easy" vote for Gil. Then votes for Skip.

Page 5: Wonders what G55 did to get the Lions' attention, saying it's probably the only useful information from the Night. Various other discussion, agreeing and disagreeing with certain people, very little new information introduced.

Page 6: Says the votes should be examined. Agrees that it's likely that a Lion voted for Skip, and repeats that killing the Lions is the priority. Is curious about Boro and Mac's votes.

Page 7: Says that out of the Skip voters, he was the first to cast suspicion on Skip.

Final thoughts on Inzil: I don't know why a "seemingly easy" vote on Day 1 is a red flag. It's Day 1, almost no one knows anything. I think it's unusual that he thinks there's little use in analyzing why the Lovers chose to kill Wilwa. Could Inzil be one of them? But if he were a Lover, that would be a clumsy thing to say...

I'm still suspicious because of his vote placement yesterDay. Now to analyze Eonwe before the deadline.

I'm in the middle of a social gathering so WW is a bit impolite.

a) I felt that so late in the Day it was mass hysteria, which leads to a bad choice if following a bandwagon or a bad choice following a counterwagon. Either way, any other choice would have been better - which means voting out of the box.
So I was more hopeful than calculative, except for reacting to this.
and I guess this answers b) and c). I wanted to get your attention before your vote. If you hadn't posted your preferences, I would have figured out someone else to vote.

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?

Admittedly I'm a bit overwhelmed by all the different people, and I dont think that I have the time to go back and find all the quotes to guide my suspicions, but I'll lay out the list here as my gut feels. And honestly, everyone has made so many points about each of the people here that I don't think I can really contribute more to them, even if that does make me suspicious for not contributing.

No idea:
Eönwë
A Little Green
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Coppermirror
Nogrod - Seems innocent. Exploring many options and generally putting ideas on the table.
Gil-Galad
satansaloser2005


Maybe an idea:
Kitanna
Encaitare
Thinlómien
Boromir88 - Says a lanister would let the village do the dirty work, then disappears.
Loslote
Nerwen
Rikae
Volo
Macalaure - With the poking and prodding and such of today, I'm less convinced than before that he is a lion. It seems to be the strategy to try and draw lions out of the woods, so he's looking ok here. Though I do think he could be a bear.


Squinty-eyed:
Inziladun

Ultimately I think the bear is still on the side of the villagers. Even if the kill takes an innocent they may still be operating under the intentions of trying to get a wolf. Which is why I don't think I'll be voting for Mac. Though, I'm adittedly a little afraid of voting for for Inz, in the event that he is an innocent, it may look like I'm jumping on a bandwagon there too and putting myself in a bad position. Oh well, I'm still learning as I go. Apparently I'm suspicious of more people than not. And that's subject to change.

Edit: X'd Volo

Personally I would prefer lynching a quieter person toDay, because I keep getting the feeling the village is getting sidetracked mostly focusing on the loudmouths. I don't want anyone to feel like they can keep posting a couple of short posts per Day and slip under the radar and gobble up the village in their sleep. But this might just be the normal loudmouth vs quieter poster debate that we don't definitely need half an hour before the DL. :rolleyes:

"Frivolous twitchiness"? The only frivolous thing I did was starting the Day by a long banter post - and I don't regret that, it's not every day you get such a chance to make stupid jokes about A Song of Ice and Fire. :p


edit: xed with Volo and Wyth

I read the results of the Day afterward. That's a pretty small thing for you to focus upon.

As for the "defense" of myself, I've pretty much said all I can to explain my vote for skip.

x/d with Lommy and Wyth

But if you state it, you must have something in mind for it, otherwise it's meaningless, which is of course suspicious. So, if not Greenie or Nogrod, and certainly not Galadriel, this only leaves Wyth as possible lion-on-lion?

I understand. But if you're voting for me and I don't think the explanation makes sense, is it unreasonable for me to point at it?

I was surprised nobody came back to it toDay...
Ok, back to it then. When you first pointed it out, I just thought it was funny. Then everybody ran off with it. I would have explained it right then, but didn't have the time. Whether toDay or yesterDay, the result would have been the same, though: I would have looked at it closer, wondered what I actually did there, and tried to figure it out with middling success.

I'm not sure if this is a lead worth following but this quote definitely cracked me up. :D Boro, where art thou and can you please start being your normal loudmouthed self?

Bah... it's like everyone except Mac, Volo and maybe Skip whom G55 kind of "does not mention"...

That said, I might be ready to consider Kit among a few others. Adding the point Lommy & Greenie have brought fore about people defending her it might be a decent try.

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?

If Greenie's tally was correct, we now have

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)

and 11 people left to vote.


edit: xed with Nog

I mean. That she was chosen because she didn't specifically mention any lions in her posts. So they chose her as a no trace kill.

Edit: just a theory on why her since what she said didn't look too seerish to me, with the exception of her Wilwa defense

Some suspect Mac to be the Bear, or the Maiden perhaps. I have had a similar suspicion since some point yesterDay, when we began the Targaryen revelation stuff. However a) I would prefer not to lynch the Bear. b) Mac has contributed a lot.
The problem with this kind of thinking is that it might give a LionMac a free pass. However, I'll give Mac the benefit of doubt for now.

If they target the same person, whoever makes it there first (that is, sends their kill first) gets the credit.

If they target each other, both parties die.

(12 people left to vote, Lommy - did you forget to count yourself again? :p)

As with my previous post, I won't cover everything here, but make note of the things that stand out.

Eonwe

Page 4, first and only post of the Day. Discusses the possibility of a Targaryen reveal, including what if a Lover and a Lion both fake-reveal. Votes for Skip and says this:

This is confusingly phrased and took me a minute to parse. I think he means that Lottie wouldn't start a vote against Skip if they were both Lions, so that if Skip turned out to be a Lion, Lottie would appear innocent. But initially the phrase "fellow lion" struck me as a slip of the tongue.

Page 7, clarifies something he said about a false-reveal Targaryen potentially buying an extra day of life. Lists his general feelings, is most suspicious of Boro and Inzil.

Final thoughts on Eonwe: He hasn't really done enough posting for me to get a vibe off of him. I still feel that one of the Lions voted to kill Skip, but I'm not leaning toward this one.

It really looks odd the way this Day started with "Mac could be the Bear/a Lion", and yet now the focus has been moved onto me.

I'm at the point now that I think knowing Mac's role could give some useful info.

++Mac

x/d with Wyth

Do I recollect it wrong, but didn't someone make the same point just a moment ago that if X then Lottie would look better?

No time to check or grandiously revise my opinions now, but let that be checked toMorrow...


EDIT: Referring to Encai's post two above this one here...

With almost 15 min to go before deadline, there is a lot of people not speaking or showing up today.

++Mac

I don't like most of the choices here, but out of all of them I have found Mac to be defensive, even passionate at times on day 1 when it was a close call for him. He has a part in this, but it leans more to a sinister part.

Now back to studying and hoping i pass this exam.

X'd since lommy

I checked people who have made points in her favour are: Mac, Cop, Encai, you, Rikae.


edit: xed with everyone, wow

Again, unless I'm mistaken -

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen – Mac
Rikae – Encai
Kit – Encai (2)
Wyth – Inzil (3)
Inzil – Mac (2)
Gil – Mac (3)

I've explained my reasoning in other posts, but in summary, I have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the Skip bandwagon. Loslote was first and so is less suspicious to me. Kitanna has played very reasonably. Wilwa was the Seer, and Eonwe has not posted enough to give me a strong feeling either way. So that leaves...

++Inziladun

Though if Inzil turns out to be innocent, I will start to wonder about Eonwe.

Another question. If there is a tie in the votes, do both people get lynched?

No, just the first to reach the highest number. With the bear, there's enough death without multiple lynches. ;)

Wavering between Encai and Kit...

Inzil is a better choice than Mac, but not really too keen on either.


edit: xed with a bunch again

I almost feel like I'd prefer Kit over Mac after all, but bringing in yet another candidate seems a bit silly at this point.

++Inziladun

For reasons stated above.

(And a tiiiny bit of self-preservation.)

Ah yes, I see that in the admin thread now too. Thanks!

I was ready to lynch Mac yesterDay before Skip as the wagon looked so spurious (actually Eönwë's late joining was the deciding thing and didn't gain the attention it deserved - fault also on me in that, as I only just remembered it now).

Now I'm a bit torn that we have the same candidates as yesterDay up front... yesterDay I would have felt fine but now it seems many are also sticking to Zil as an easy vote as well.

Blah.

bah, I think this Mac-Inzil war is leading nowhere.

++Kitanna


edi: xed & fixed highlight

Could be, I'm not sure. I brought this up not because of Lottie, but because the use of the phrase "fellow lion" in Eonwe's post made me wonder if he was a Lion, and slipped. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but you never know.

Is it too late to bring in another person? At the moment I'd most like to vote Boro.

Ah well. I'll keep wondering about him for the rest of the game, otherwise.

++ Macalaure


EDIT: x-ed since my last