What's this?

I'm actually not dead?

Unheard of! Absurd!

Or, at least, according to the phantom's calculations of yesterday, I must surely be a cobbler, right?

The consensus seemed to agree with him.

I'm not dead.

So....

Clearly, I'm not a cobbler.

Because the wolves don't eat cobblers if they know them (unless they're trying to confuse the village), and the cobbler-killer does kill... and he didn't last night...

And I was the consensus cobbler-probable.

And I'm not dead?

Does that all make sense?

Of course it does.

Now, the real question is...

Why didn't the cobbler-assassin kill me?

There is, of course, another logical answer...

The cobbler-assassin didn't think I was a cobbler. And while this doesn't exonerate me, but rather leaves me in the "who knows?" category, it should perhaps at least give the phantom-esquely confidant reason to believe that I'm not the only one who doesn't think I'm a cobbler.


And... on another note:

I really do apologise for my limited involvement... but I probably should have known better that to agree to stick with the late start.

On the other hand, I could just be using this because it's a ploy, and I don't normally think to use ploys.

Ploys are good: they irk the phantom.

And I really do love irking the phantom.

Oh, but it's a good irk. I love ploys. I even see them when they aren't there. And for every ploy I actually attempt I considered doing three others. I even think of what I might do should a situation arise. Usually the situation doesn't arise. And I cry.

So, the long and the short of what you're saying is this-
Since you are alive you're either not a Cobbler or at the least the Assassin didn't think you were one.

Okay, I'll certainly give you that.

Of course you could still be a WW. But nothing from you has really screamed WW to me. But then you haven't been around a lot. Which bugs me of course. You know how I feel about the lurkers. ;)

Has anyone done this yet? I didn't see it if so.

Yesterday's voting-

Shasta for Phantom (1)
Form for Phantom (2)
Fea for Shasta (1)
Nilp for Gwath (1)
Kath for Lommy (1)
Durelin for Nogrod (1)
Eonwe for Gwath (2)
Green for Gwath (3)
Mith for Lommy (2)
phantom for Gwath (4)
Brin for Durelin (1)
Nerwen for Lommy (3)
Nogrod for Durelin (2)

I need some sleep. Be back later.

Ooh, look at the attention I'm getting. Seriously, though...I never get this much attention when I'm actually a wolf... :p

Anyway...before I get into the whole "I promise I'm not a wolf guyz <3" thing...on to a Nog-centered post, because I just have to respond to him.

My vote for Gwath and Day 1 was mostly out of spite for the Kitanna thing, and actually because I purely didn't like his attitude. I warmed up to him a little more on Day 2, perhaps simply because more people seemed interested in him. I am naturally stubborn about "going with the flow." Which makes me think of my comment about me going with the flow on the Kitanna vote if I was a wolf. I don't know if I could have brought myself to do it, but I feel like I would have liked to, because it was just so...easy.

And as we see now, it was a cobbler who suggested the whole idea. :p

It was silly because there was no point to it! It was a boring, toss out of a Day. It extended the game by a Day, but made Day 1 completely pointless (yes, I know some people will argue that it is anyway, but at least normally there are more interesting dynamics besides people arguing principles. I mean, really, it was just one huge distraction! And the rest of the game people will still hold it against those who disagreed with them. ...See??).

Yes, I see I focused on one part of what you said. I'd say I was responding to all the "a wolf or cobbler have no reason to want to vote for/lynch Kitanna" going around. I don't even know at this point if you actually said things along those lines, but I thought you had.

I'm sorry, I feel the need to downplay anything having to do with tp. I don't like talking about him at all. Especially when everyone's saying "oh, the seer must dream of him!"

Well of course my opinions are going to be confusing to you if you don't like them. :p

Because the former post was a post of emotion regarding the Kitanna-lynch-fiasco.

I mean, I feel pretty stupid for somehow not seeing what Nogrod really thought about the Kitanna-lynch (See? My thoughts have been tainted for the rest of the game! Thanks Mith.), but it seemed to me on Day 1 he pretty much stayed out of it, and then on Day 2 his opinions seem mixed (but of course I'm not going back and looking at posts...). Okay, maybe I just don't like people being neutral-ish.

Something random not me attempting explaining myself or talking about Nog: So Greenie sealed Gwath's fate (in a tie, the last person to get the highest number of votes is lynched in this game), and phantom put him over the top. Now, I have to talk about him, because I wonder if this is truly a "for show" vote (edit: or an extra-padding vote). Another interesting thing is that he could have voted for Lommy, if he was aware of Mith's vote for Lommy and made her the lynchee instead of Gwath if he wanted.

I have to agree with Nogrod and tp on the most likely seer dreams, because listing people as 'innocent' was the only certain thing he did. Everyone is aware that the seer actually can't tell if the person is a cobbler, he doesn't need to specify that. Listing people as cobblers as well was very smart, because once revealed as the seer we know that is very ambiguous but it also certainly covered up the fact that he was listing two people as innocents after two nights. Very nicely done (if we're right).

Omg so long!! Two pages worth of confusing...ness!

Ok, let's look at the voting and lynchings/kills so far:

Day 1:

Lommy: Nogrod (1)
Shasta: Kitanna [ordo](1)
Gwath [seer]: Kitanna [ordo](2)
Greenie: Gwath [seer](1)
Durelin: Gwath [seer](2)
Mith [cobbler]: Kitanna [ordo](3)
Nilp: Kitanna [ordo](4)
Lalaith [ordo]: Ye phantome (1)
Nogrod: Groin [ordo](1)
Brinn: Greenie (1)
*Nerwen: Kitanna [ordo](5)
*+Ye phantome: Lalaith [ordo](1)
*Eönwë: Greenie (2)

Lynched: Kitanna [ordo]

Night 2:

Killed: Lalaith [ordo]
Assassinated: -

Day 2:

Shasta: Ye phantome (1)
Form: Ye phantome (2)
Fea: Shasta (1)
Nilp: Gwath [seer] (1)
Kath: Lommy (1)
Durelin: Nogrod (1)
Eönwë: Gwath [seer] (2)
Greenie: Gwath [seer] (3)<2>
Mith [cobbler]: Lommy (2)
Ye phantome: Gwath [seer](4)
Brinn: Durelin (1)
Nerwen: Lommy (3)
(+?)Nogrod: Durelin (2)[/QUOTE]

Lynched: Gwath [seer]

Night 3:

Killed: Mith [cobbler]
Assassinated: -


*= vote didn't count
+= thought/ knew vote didn't count
()= total votes for person that day so far
<>= total votes for person from an individual so far
[]= known status/ postion e.g. ordo

Huh.

I think I have already explained why I suspected him to be wolf - he sort of flip-flopped and tiptoed around, his overall manner was apologetic, and he gave me wolvish vibes. Yes, I am ashamed. :o

I believe she said that more as a criticism on the fact that Mith was being generally trusted because of the Kit-affair, not as "I'm convinced Mith is innocent".. I think it was me who first voiced concern on that matter and she seconded me.

Apart from this and the option that you are not a cobbler, there is the option that the Cobbler Assassin did note you as a possible cobbler but there was someone he suspected more. We'll see next Night.

Back with more...

Any conclusions?

I have noticed, though, that everone the phantom has voted (or been "playful" with, and by that I mean Mith) has died. Be careful Fea.

But maybe there is another reason for Mith's untimely demise:

The only exception to the above rule was Kitanna, and maybe since Mith prevented tp from getting who he wanted to get lynched (i.e. Lalaith), then he had to get rid of her.

Or maybe she voted for his packmate, and he needed to get rid of her. Maybe he thought (whatever he says he did) that Mith was the seer and had found them both out. She just needed to keep him happy while she went after Lommy.

Just mere speculation.

So here comes a quick look on the villagers.

Fea - A difficult case. I'm a bit uneasy about her at the moment.

Shasta - Sleeping under my reindeer.

Form - Torn about him, too. I think the cobbler assassin would have tried him last Night, unless s/he had someone s/he suspected even more. In this light I think it more probable that he is not a cobbler, but then his style of posting (see his first toDay!) seems deliberately confusing and weird and careless and rings all cobbler bells. He might even be a very bold wolf, actually.. See what a plan! Behaving so cobblerishly that the village decides to leave him for the assassin, who can't harm him since he's really a wolf! Just suggesting... I've never played with him before (?) so I can't compare his behaviour to what he usually is like.

Eönwë - Seems innocent.

Nerwen - Innocentish as well, and besides, she's a sharp player that notices things that others don't, and she really is an asset to the village if she isn't a baddie.

Kath - No read.

Nilp - Can't say. Could be anything.

Dury - I think she looks pretty innocent. Nog's theory of her being a cobbler is interesting but I don't buy it. (And besides, I still have this bad habit of trusting people who agree with me..)

Brinn - On Day 1, I was quite convinced of her innocence. The further the game goes, the less certain I am. I still don't suspect her, really - I'm just not so sure of her innocence as I was.

Nog - Actually, I think he might be a cobbler (or even a wolf or an ordo.. :rolleyes: ) - not because of that Wittgenstein stuff, but because of his manner of trying to look helpful, especially with his analysis of Dury.

Greenie - Me! I'm not a wolf nor a cobbler. I know. :Merisu:

the phantom - I think he's just annoyed to be an ordo and has a need to be important in some other way than through an important role. I don't shut out the possibility of him being a cobbler, but I don't think he's a wolf.

Lommy - Seems innocent.


EDIT: x-ed with Ëonwë - yay, so there is someone else around! *waves happily*

:D I'm thinking the same thing.

But I have a sneaky suspicion there's someone else here, who just doesn't want to show their face (well, avatar)

So, there it is.
I gave people the data, now let's see how they use it.

Right, quick post before I disappear for a few hours because we have people visiting.

Fea - the rule has always been that so long as the number of Cobblers doesn't equal the number of innocents the village wins.

Also, on Gwath, I think he dreamt of phantom and found him wolvish. He might also have dreamt of Fea. Though he did add that 'if' statement to indicate being unsure it's the most concrete thing we had from him apart from those two Innocent coments which are odd. If Gwath thought through (or noticed) the caveat that Cobblers would appear as innocents in the narration then no way can the Innocent bits mean anything. If not then yeah, he dreamt of those he called Innocent. I can't believe though that our Seer would fail to notice this, so I'm going with my original assumption.

Truly, this is not just me going 'oh it's the phantom, let's kill him', which I admit is my usual reaction to him playing. He hasn't annoyed me in any way, his overbearingness has actually seemed less overt than usual, he's been a nicer guy than I'm used to. I doubt he's simply mellowed, ergo he's a wolf. Well, that's my reasoning anyway. :rolleyes: But really, who are you going to dream of as a Seer when you have phantom and Fea, masters at playing you for a fool? Thought so.

Well that indeed is true. Or then maybe one of them is a wolf and the other is a cobbler? Somehow, all their chattiness makes me feel that they can't be both all nice and innocent, but on the other hand, if there are two people who would act like that when innocent, it's Fea and tp... :rolleyes:

I find it funny that Nogrod complains about others rewriting his posts and then he goes and semi-rewrites a post of mine. ;)

Why not Groin on Night2? He was practically sleeping under everybody's reindeer and it would have been difficult to get information of him in any other way. Also, if you remember, he posted this enthusiastic post about having a case against a wolf on the admin thread around then, that might have made Gwath raise eyebrows enough to check him.

Nogrod's Durelysis is weird. He writes it as if Durelin should/would have known the roles of those who are dead by now. It is odd.

Also, the way Nogrod first suspects Durelin, then concludes he can't be sure after the analysis, and then proceeds on making up this point that semi-proves her innocence is rather troubling. It looks like a wolf's attempt to stop suspecting a mate in a way that it doesn't look too fishy. I'm inclined to think Nogrod would do such thing exactly like that: gradually and by analysis to make it reasonable, not just say "she doesn't feel that guilty anymore". And he might have had a reason to stop suspecting his fellow too: unless I'm mistaken, there has been an increasing suspicion of Dury and if it started to look troubling to a fellow-Nogrod, he would of course have to stop suspecting her as he indeed was one of the main advocates of lynching her and in a game with just two wolves, they can't afford losing each other very early. (Hey, even Nogrod's "making a point" castaway vote for Durelin makes sense if they're fellows!) Okay, I won't get too excited about this theory yet. I would have to look through all their posts to form a proper opinion. I know they've been kind of against each other more or less the whole game, but I'm not sure if the wolves would be that bold. (On the other hand, Nogrod and Durelin are the sort of people that would dare to play it bold.) Well, this certainly gave me something to think about.

And the cobblers are counted to the village numbers, right? Because, I've known them to be counted to the ww numbers (which definitely wouldn't be the case in this game anyway, I think) or them being counted to neither.

Kath's absence bothers me. Where have you been, gal? I know she's not a loudmouth but she tends to post more. She's sleeping under my reindeer, and I don't like it.

Wait? Are you saying that the wolves killed Mith last Night because they thought she was the seer? That is a rather shaky theory: Gwath the Seer was already dead by then, so the wolves would have known that no one else is a seer. But then again, I don't think I got the point of your theory in the first place, so maybe I've just misinterpreted your words... Or are you intentionally not making sense... cobbler? :p

And lastly, what's up with Form? He confuses me. I think he just can't be innocent. But whether he is a cobbler or a very bold and crazy wolf, I don't know...


edit: xed with Kath - good to see her around

First- I wasn't aware of Mith's vote when I went to make my post.
Second- I still would've voted Gwath, as even with Mith's vote he still had the lead. I was voting for the leader, plain and simple. I had no interest in leaving the door open for me to retake the lead and get lynched.
Thank you!!

It's nice to know that at least a couple of people can see what is smack in front of their faces.

Now, onto Eonwe, who seriously thinks that a Phantom-Wolf would kill a Mith-Cobbler. If you had been reading my posts today, you would've read that post where I point out that from my perspective Mith came across as rather Cobblerish yesterday.

So me being an intelligent WW decided I'd kill someone who was not only a Cobbler, but a Cobbler who had a special soft spot for me and would be extremely likely to continue helping me. Oh yes, makes perfect sense. :rolleyes:
Oh, now that makes even more sense! I killed Mith because I thought she was the Seer. Oh, of course!

No... wait.... the Seer was already dead, wasn't he? :rolleyes:

Seriously Eonwe- try and think your arguments through before you post them. You can't just pick someone to go after despite all the facts.

(to be continued)

Okay, and now for the grand exhibit of bad reasoning.
Oh, of course.

Gwath found BOTH Werewolves, but he decided that he wouldn't say anything about it. Yeah- because as we all know Gwath is a complete moron, and has no idea how to play. :rolleyes:

Even if he would've found only one Werewolf he would've made sure that we could tell! Sorry, but you're really ticking me off, Kath. Your post was obviously made under the assumption that Gwath is stupid, which he is not!

Will someone please suggest a scenario where an Ordo Kath would spout nonsense like this? Because I'd really like to lynch her. Really.

1) Careful isn't one of my strong points.

2) The phantom isn't likely to kill me until later, if he's going to kill me at all. And of course he's going to try to kill me. If he's a wolf, he has to. If he's a cobbler, he'd like to. And if he's a villager, he'll kill everybody else to ascertain victory because one innocent standing is still a microcosmic victory for the entire village, and knowing him, he's likely to propose that we whittle ourselves away until he's the last one standing, at which point he will shout his true identity and we'll see who won. Point being, I doubt he'll try to kill me yet. You? You might be in more trouble. Chances are, Shasta's in bigger trouble than you. Me? I'm pretty safe.

He's usually not quite this playful, and more verbose. Dead Serious is a very appropriate pt.

I know, right? Kath, why are you so invisible? I need you, Kath, I want you! Come jump around in the spotlight for a little while so I can judge you.

Aww! You're right, though. But Gwath doesn't know me as well as others. It's quite possible he took me for granted. But there's the obvious other choice, which I'd take as a seer playing against myself: I'd not bother with the phantom and Fea, knowing they'd probably just get themselves lynched anyway. Why waste dreams on conspicuous people? Dream of low profile folk who don't garner votes, and can hide. Dream of the people who have no evidence mounting against them otherwise. If I was seer, I'd be dreaming little dreams. Me and the phantom? Masters we are, but I wouldn't dream of either of us.

Maybe he did think through the argument and posted anyway because cobblers enjoy confusing people.

Scenario: Ordo Kath has not been around as often as is usual. Consequently, when she reads, she skims to keep up. Adding to the high paced read through, she has prior knowledge of several players. The phantom and Fea are not new to her: she knows that she would dream of them. She posits the theory while she has time, with the idea to come back later and think a bit harder.

Lynch her anyway?

Bah, can't talk now. Have music practice. Then teaching little kids. Then lunch.

But I'll find at least an opportunity or two to jump on and skim between all of that. This is by far my worst 24 hour cycle as far as finding time to keep up. :rolleyes:

A voice from beyond the grave
 

In the final head count, the cobblers are the same as innocents.

If the number of innocents should equal that of the wolves and cobblers combined, the game will continue, either until the number of wolves is equal to that of innocents plus cobblers, or until all wolves are dead.

Oh go on then, lynch me. :D

Nah don't, I'm having a rather nice time. Been a while since I've lived, perhaps I'm high on the experience. Anyway, phantom, I never said that Gwath was stupid, I don't believe that's true, I was in fact defending him against those who said he'd list people he'd dreamt of as Innocent. As to him dreaming of two wolves and not saying anything, ok, I didn't think that through. But in that case, you're a wolf and he hadn't yet dreamt of Fea - sorted. :)

If this is annoying you then you have my apologies, I seem to have no desire to play in my usual style, it's so boring.

Wait, that last paragraph of my post #328 doesn't make sense to me now, on afterthought. I was just posting my thoughts out loud. And once I'd thought the better of my little theory, I couldn't change it, could I? That's just makes things worse.

I think that at the time when I wrote that I was looking at a different Day, in which the commentary was posted over an hour after DL. If you had been really, really eager, you may have voted then. Anyway, I was just explaining my thought process at the time. I admit it, I didn't check the facts. I didn't think things through.:o


And by the way, phantom, just so you know- I don't suspect you, it was just an idea.

edit: And you are clearly over-reacting, too.

Clearly you haven't seen me in many villages. My behavior to this point is nothing compared to what I'm capable of. ;)

I'm about to eat lunch at a birthday party, but I'll definitely be able to get back on before the deadline.

I don't know what to do with Kath. After that last post I still think she's not innocent. Problem is she's ringing the Cobbler alarm and not the Werewolf alarm, and I'd much rather lynch a Werewolf at this point seeing as we still have the Assassin around.

Oo, gotta go right now! Be back later.

Well, I've only seen you in DWII, and I didn't know how much of your "phantomness" (as I now know it was) was due to you being te GW or you being you. Now I know.

That is perhaps THE most ironic statement I've read all game. :rolleyes:

Yes yes, I'm here now and will be voting, hold your applause please.

I'm here, I'm tired, I have a flu and I have no idea who's a wolf.

*sigh*

(Don't I sound miserable? :D)

I might like to check Durelin's and Nogrod's posts to see if my theory of them being in cahoots holds water, but it's less than an hour till deadline and Greenie has to post too, so I doubt I will have time.

Kath and Eönwë are both acting oddly. This comment of Kath's makes me wonder:
Seems pretty cobblerish.

And Eönwë then... is he just an innocent newbie-ish player whos' intimidated by tp's criticism, or is he a wolf getting a bit jumpy when his weird schemes are spotted?

PS. Thanks for clarification, Rikae! :)

Oh, and there's one thing that makes me wonder. Why has everybody been so silent today? There's hardly been proper discussion or argumenting. The wolves are probably quite comfortable in their hideouts... :rolleyes: (I know, I haven't been active or aggressive either, so I maybe shouldn't complain. But this really does trouble me. Even now, it's an hour till the deadline and it's almost dead silent. Where is everybody?)

Well, in regards to Kath, I feel the exact same way (has anyone noticed? :p), and I know I'm innocent, so. Because we all saw exactly how far methodical, careful, thoughtful Shasta went last game. :rolleyes:

Well, Lommy, I really want to vote phantom again. But I know if I do, I'll get the double-hammer of a phantom/Fea vote, so that's not really appetizing.

Would you like to make a one-liner summary for us who unfortunately missed last game? :Merisu: But I don't think anyone should give up being thoughtful or methodical, even if it backfires sometimes. However, people should play as suits them best and how they have the most fun, as far as they contribute - which has not been a problem in this game for anyone's part. (Am I flip-flopping now? :D Yeah, everybody has been contributing but there should still be more talk.)

edit: xed with Shasta

I don't think they're that vengeful... ;)

As I look around me I see that there are seven people who are on my side and wish us to get away from this evil labyrinth and five who do not wish us well.

I'll make a first division then...

Those I have actually suspected in this game:
Feanor of the Peredhil
the phantom
Durelin

Those I'm quite baffled about:
Formendacil
Eönwë
Kath

Those I have no idea but am a bit worried:
Nilpaurion Felagund
Thinlómien

Those I have no idea but feel better with:
Shastanis Althreduin
Nerwen
Brinniel
A Little Green


What worries me the most is that the three I have suspected are those who have either been loud and visible / whom I have "analysed" a bit. That's not good. A noncontroversial wolf would have slipped just too nicely from my radar - and if they both play it safe at least I'm totally at the wrong tracks then. And that's what I fear now as I look at the list.

I need to get some more concrete stuff now. *goes back searching for anything that could help*

I can for my own experience, Lommy. It involved a wolf-Boro, a Ranger-Shasta, and a battle of the reveals. I think you can guess who was believed and who wasn't. :rolleyes:

We need to get you a trampoline, m'dear. :D

Edit: X'd with Lommy and her father. :P

Me? Weird schemes? Never!:p

edit: x-ed since Lommy #345

Because you think I'm guilty? Sorry, but I have to ask.

Yeah, I agree Kath is acting pretty cobblerish...cobblerish, but not wolfish. When she's a wolf, she's usually much more subtle.

Formy is either a cobbler or an ordo acting like a cobbler. I remember him mentioning he won't be able to participate much if he's still alive late in the game due to RL, so the latter is possible...

Where is Nerwen? She's one person I wanted to have a closer look at toDay, but she hasn't shown up...

And Lommy's right...it's strangely quiet here. I expected there to be a whole new page when I returned today, but no. Why so silent?

*sigh* Less than an hour until deadline and I have no clue who to vote for...

EDIT: X-ed since #347

I think you're a Cobbler.

Why so serious?

*falls over laughing*

Edit: Whoops. Nog and Brinn's avatars are so similar.

Okay. I do agree with Brinn (and tp) that Kath might be a cobbler indeed. Yes she's much more subtle and reasonable when she's a wolf. Also, and to me this is the strongest point, she hasn't suspected me or raised a campaign to lynch me. She always thinks I'm a wolf but now she has indeed used Lommy's suspicions of me as reasons to suspect Lommy. So, she thinks I'm a wolf as always but as a cobbler she plays it the other way around... :)

Now the question remains whether we should leave her to the cobbler-assassin or is s/he already overworking...

Okay. I think I might vote Form toDay - since he isn't dead my guess is that he is actually a wolf and that is why he's still alive. And if he isn't a wolf then it's at least quite likely that he is a cobbler, given the way he behaves. And even if he is an ordo he's at least a confusing one and I feel more at ease with not having to ponder about him.. :rolleyes:

Other possibilities could be Nog or Fea or Nilp (because he's the most wolvish of all the under-the-reindeer people).

By the way, it has been nice to see more of both Kath and Shasta. I think I have more to think about both of them. At the moment Kath feels innocent.


EDIT: x-ed since Brinn

And add to that that there are very little arguments or analysis made. No one is making cases - well, I've tried but admit they're not the flashy ones either - no one is making strong suspicions. Like everyone is hiding their heads in the bushes hoping for someone else to do something. I mean "to do something" - many have posted a lot but rarely anything that would actually reveal what they think (or what they would want us to believe they think) or what they mean to do.

Yes, let's please not forget about Nilp.

Sorry I haven't been around much toDay, moving into college and all that.