How many forum members?
 

On October 18, 2001 the Barrow-Downs forum hit 500 members. At the time of this post, only five months later, there are over 2,300.

This gave me an idea for a little game. You make your guess at how many members the forum will have on the day The Return of the King hits theaters. That's about 20 months from now. Some time in the next couple months we'll close the thread and lock the guesses until the day is nigh. (After all, as we get closer it will get easier and easier to guess and that isn't fair.)

So make your guesses and hold your breath as we wait to find out who the bigger winner will be!

P.S. You can change your bid as many times as you like up until the thread is locked, but we won't announce when that will be. So you can't try to wait around until the day before it gets locked, because you won't know why that will be.

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Mhoram ]

That's quite a good idea, Mho.
But The Return of the King comes out not far off two years from now. If we lock it sometime in between, let's say the end of this year, the winner is either going to have to be a mathematical genius or a pretty wild guesser.
Maybe we could make it The Two Towers?
Also, the movies come out on different dates in different countries. We'll have to make the date for checking all the guesses the date that TT comes out, in a particular country.

Good idea, Mho! You deserve a pat on the back. [img]smilies/wink.gif[/img]

-LadyArwen

No, no, it's just for taking a stab at it and whoever is the closest(over or under) wins.

Wins what, though? That would be my question.
"...I should like to know about risks, out-of-pocket expenses, time required and remuneration, and so forth..."
I'll never get into a game until I know what I will get out of it! Perhaps there is some Baggins in me after all... [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]

Ok, I see now. You'll have to present the idea to one of the ops, though, as we need a prize ...
[img]smilies/smile.gif[/img]

-LadyArwen

I would nominate a lock of my hair, but am too greedy. [img]smilies/wink.gif[/img]
How about a lock of LadyArwen's hair? Or Jimmy Page's? Can you get it for us, Mho?

My guess is that BD will be closed because it won't have enough bandwidth by then. But before it ends up shutting down, my guess is 7001.

I tacked on the 1 so it wouldn't look like too round of a number.

Nah, Durelen, you've just watched the 'Price is Right' too often! (Or I have..) [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]

Lush

You crack me up... [img]smilies/wink.gif[/img]

I'd predict that the rate will drop off a bit through the summer, and then rebound again leading up to the release of TTT. And that pattern will repeat t a lesser degree by the time of RoTK. Hoom...This is a hasty decision...but I'd say around 5,800 by RoTK. You must also bear in mind that a large percentage may just register and make only a few posts, if any (unlike me, who's got this many by just jabbering) [img]smilies/wink.gif[/img].

In any case, bandwidth is something that may have to be addressed, but it isn't really that expensive these days...25 gigs bandwidth and 2 gigs storage per month would likely see the BD through the expansion. The main issue will likely be the management of the number of threads, which can affect the operating efficiency of the UBB software.

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Glenethor ]

Ah, but you see... Like another popular Tolkien site, this one may clean out the system of folks who don't visit often enough. But if that doesn't happen, I must make a guess... [img]smilies/wink.gif[/img]

Oh, I don't know... I'll be the wild guesser if I get this near right because I'm not doing any math today! [img]smilies/eek.gif[/img] Say, 6500, I suppose...

why do you say its going to close?
well mho does it have to be exsactly?
i think it can be a bit hard....
i think it can be the closest to it? [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img] [img]smilies/evil.gif[/img]

Zones, that's what Mho said... It is the nearest one, not exactly...

Right now it's just for fun, maybe there will be a prize when the time gets closer but it shouldn't matter. [img]smilies/smile.gif[/img]

One could assume that the graph for members (me an my mathematical/analytical mind, here I go again) would look something like an extension on a bell curve, with the sharp increase due to release of the movies (as I have noticed a trend directly variant to the release of the movie) and leveling off for a while until another sharp increase. As for a guess, I'm afraid I'd have to overanalyze too much data to come up with too vague an estimate. (I've also written one of the most comprehensive guides by a student for picking a winner of a horserace, based entirely on Boulean Algebra and statistics). In this case, I'll just take a wild guess: 9,268. We'll see, I suppose. Sure hope the Durelen's prophecy doesn't come true!

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Shadowfax Clawson ]

My guess for memebers by the time ROTK hits the theater.

1. 6,876 members.

2. 11 members that have the letter "z" in the beginning of their nick.

3. 2,876 nicks that have some something to do with Legolas, Bloom, or Mirkwood.

4. 4,897 members that have to long of signatures.

5. 2,768 members that you only see post a few times.

6. 1, 008 members that will have interesting posts/thoughts and ideas.

7. 567 members that will request to be a room operator.

8. 3 actors from the movies. Or had something to do with the movie.

9. 87 more "acid trip" pictures under there nicks.

10. 1 member with a nick that has something to do with the A-Team.
http://www.plauder-smilies.de/person/mrt2.gif

[ April 11, 2002: Message edited by: zifnab ]

Ah, good zif, you're funn-ee! And congratulations on reaching 300 posts (of which most, if not all, are highly entertaining, informative, or both). I shall make no guesses today, because thinking mathematically on my day off is against my credo.

yes congrats to zifnab!
i did not think there coud be soooooo many members......
and the list was cool!
did you do it with calculator? ¬_¬
lol! [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img] [img]smilies/evil.gif[/img]

Closest to it without going over. [img]smilies/wink.gif[/img] maril

On the basis that most of the people who would ever enjoy this site would have been picked up by the first movie, im gonna go on the low side. 4728 [img]smilies/smile.gif[/img]
Although i dont see why anyone wouldnt enjoy the barrowdowns [img]smilies/wink.gif[/img]

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Rinurion ]

Lets not confuse people! [img]smilies/tongue.gif[/img]


Closest, over or under, doesn't matter.

Okay, I've thought of all of your ideas, folks, but which is true?!?! [img]smilies/eek.gif[/img]

Just FYI, if the growth rate from only inbetween the two above mentioned dates stays exactly the same, we'll end up with almost 8,500. Not taking into account that it took the forum from May 00 to October 01 to get 500 members.

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Sharku ]

After much consideration I throw caution to the wind and guess 8,250

[ April 11, 2002: Message edited by: Mhoram ]

Some more stats to scare the bejeesus out of those that pay the servers [img]smilies/wink.gif[/img]

New members last week:
Mon 25: 19
Tue 26: 17
Wed 27: 23
Thu 28: 22
Fri 29: 15
Sat 30: 22
Sun 31: 15
ave: 19

The math: 627 days until ROTK (maybe one or two more or less). At yesterdays rate, we'll end up with about 11,700; at last week's average rate it'd be around 14,000. For the total to end up with only 5 or 6k, the rate would have to drop from 15 to 5.

My guess?
11,000. We have seen that one new member often brings friends after him/her; the snowball system.... and cautious me didn't even take that into account.

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Sharku ]

and my guess is...... 7,443
for no real reason, i just can't imagine any way of really calculating it, so there's my wild guess. [img]smilies/smile.gif[/img] and i sure hope the BD is still around!!!!
good one zif, lol [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]

9,242
I worked that out with a careful scientific system of closing my eyes and hitting four numbers on my nymberpad, then putting the highest one first. http://www.plauder-smilies.de/happy/bdent.gif

7,634 because its the first reasonably large number without being too big which popped into my head!

I wote 10.007 - because it's the closest Prime to 10.000 - and The Barrowdowns can NEVER BE DIVIDED !!! [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img] [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img] [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]

I'm going to go with an outlandish 12,000 just for fun! As an editorial note, imagine iff all the CURRENT members actually posted on a regular basis. Now imagine if they all had something insightfulll or interesting to say, interesting eh? Right now would estimate we only have about 100 regular posters.

I'm guessing 5,500 members by Christmas 2003.

I guess...7824.

8,000.

Here's my two cents.

Liberal Estimate: 11,129.25
Conservative Estimate: 8,600
Average of the two a.k.a. The one I'm gonna keep: 9,864.625

7315

Seven is the highest of all numbers.
Three also has vast significance numerically and is the most popular 'lucky number'.
Fifteen is my lucky number, and its constituent parts 1 and 5 and very important both religiously and with reference to numeracy.

Oh, ok, I just picked them randomly...but you already knew that, right?

I'll take a guess at... 9,764. I want it high, but not too high, since there are only so many Tolkien enthusiasts out there. If I took out all the people who are just here to drool over an actor (/actress), though, I'd say 4,365. [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]

14! Just kidding. [img]smilies/eek.gif[/img] Maybe 8,950. Just my random thoughts, though.

7,278.7 (and there is a reason...)

I will guess at 10600. Totally ramdom but taking into account all of the other guesses.

Three weeks should be enough for making guesseses, so in purest scientific spirit, I'll close this thread now (before you can see that all our guesses may go awry) [img]smilies/smile.gif[/img]

2682 members at the time of this post, btw.

On second thought, no need to close it, just all estimates beyond that point are invalid.

[ April 21, 2002: Message edited by: Sharku ]