A chance meeting
 

In Appendix A, Gandalf discusses what could have happend if it had not been for the battle of Dale. He ends it by stating;

"But that has been adverted-because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of spring in Bree. A chance-meeting, as we say in Middle-earth."

I always feel a thrill when I read that sentence. A chance meeting between Gandalf and the dwarf... leading to the finding of the Ring, the Fellowship, the great deeds and sorrows...

How much was chance? Was this predestined?

When you think about it, oaths, curses, prophecies, fate, etc have a really large hold in Tolkien's work that sometimes you wonder, where is free will? Of course it can easily be refuted by saying "Frodo chose to be Ring-bearer" and such, but when Gollum fell as he was dancing around and around, or the fate of Turin and Nienor, it really tickles your brain, in a fashion. :D

I think Tolkien leaves a lot of room for both fate and chance. However, I believe there is always some higher power turning the wheels.

Good job Gandalf always had a thirst on for the ale at the Prancing Pony, what? ;)

But no matter how events turn out, there will always be a chain of events leading up, and we can look back along the chain and see all manner of ways in which the future could have turned out differently.

The Lord of the Rings happened the way it did because of that small event way back in the chain, but there could have been an even mightier tale had Thorin and Gandalf not met!

I tend to agree with [MatthewM . As I see
JRRTs concept of free will, a generally Catholic/Christian one
I tend to agree with, individuals do have freedom of
will, which can affect events for a considerable time and space,
but God/Eru acts to eventually redress the world situation
so that evil does not permanentloy prevail.
Two instances: Gandalf observing he would not have wholly
failed if anything survives:
And Eru allowing but then finally "adjusting" Melkor's rather cheeky meddling in
the music of the Ainur:
[QUOTE]And thou, Melkor, shall see that no theme may be played that hath
not its uttermost source in me, nor can any alter the music in my despite.
For he that attempteth thia shall prove but mine instrument in the
devising of things more wonderful, which he himself hath not imagined.[/QUOTE


And it should be kept in mind, to paraphrase Monty Python: "It's a situation which makes for a ripping good yarn."
(I believe the introduction to the Spanish Inquisition. I bet no one was expecting that! )