Sauron Wins...Then What?
 

This is something I always wondered about. What if Gandalf still failed in his mission even after being sent back? Would he just shrug his shoulders say "I tried" and head back to Undying Lands with the other Elves, abandoning the Men and Dwarves to the mercy of Sauron?

I propose two situations though since it seems like they'd be on different scales of "we're screwed."

1. Frodo just dies somewhere...I dunno, Shelob eats him. The Ring is lost or Gollum takes it and hides back in his cave. With The One lost forever in this scenario, is all hope extinguished or is there a faint glimmer?

2. Sauron does recover the One Ring. Is that when everyone just gives up and flees to the West?

EDIT:
I always call Shelob Ungoliant... I'm dumb.

If Frodo had failed in his quest, it seems likely that Sauron would have been able to militarily crush the forces of Gondor and Rohan before Gandalf could have even learned where the Ring was. I don't think the West would have ever had a chance of recovering it before Sauron found it.

If Sauron had himself recovered the Ring, the end would have come more quickly. In either case, I don't see Gandalf running away. Just as when the Mouth of Sauron showed him signs that Frodo had been captured, and Gandalf refused to surrender, I think he would have led the West in a fight to the bitter end.

The first does not actually seem possible, at least in the long term. The Ring has a way of being found and trying to return to Sauron. Short of it being dropped into the depths of the ocean, I'm not sure there IS a way for the ring to be put permanently out of Sauron's grasp. And I wouldn't even be all that sure in THAT case. If the ring still exits Sauron will get his hands on it eventually. Those scenarios may delay it but it will happen.

If Sauron actually got his hands on it right away, that would probably be it for the Free Peoples. I'm not 100% sure that even fleeing to the west would help in the long run; given enough time, Sauron might actually figure out a way to attack even there (he'd be insane to try and attack the Valar on their home turf, but as we have established, if Sauron was truly committed to the Melkor path of Darkness, he might just be that insane.)

Gandalf probably would have stayed until the bitter end. But even that could have a special risk. With the ring, Sauron would have crushed the free peoples with very little (from his point of view) effort. Freed of that diversion and now far more powerful than he had been (not as powerful as he had once been, but still a lot mightier than the Sauron we know from LOTR, presumably on par with how he was when it took Isildur, Elendil AND Gil-Galad to beat him into submission (and only one of them survived the effort.) Under those circumstances. I wonder if Sauron, instead of simply slaying Gandalf, would have the inclination (and bility) to capute him and forcibly corrupt him, If with ring, he would have enough power to simply wave his hand and fill any heart with darkness and evil, or stuff the now spare wraith ring on Gandalf's finger and keep him chained up until it had done it's dirty work. If there is any worse outcome than a world with Sauron in possession of the ring I can imagine, it's one where he has the ring and Gandalf (and probably by extension, Radagast) serving HIM.

Gandalf was not the only one fighting Sauron. Aragorn and thousand of men were fighting there as well. Gandalf worked as a catalyst for them all. A thread who wouldn't let anyone get broken or give up. No one could fail untill Frodo failed himself. Sauron's world turned upside down because of Aragorn. Gandalf motivated them all. Frodo carried the Ring. This is how the Ring was destroyed. Not by one man. So Gandalf failing in his mission is not plausible here.
No, the Ring was trying its best to go back to Sauron. By the time Frodo reached Shelob's Lair the Ring was already powerful. Not even Gollum could hide the Ring anywhere. Not in the mountains. Nowhere.
Why would they flee to the West? They are given the responsibility. It won't be morally good either. Though it is plain that none of them would have fled anywhere. Sauron would become stronger, but Gandalf was as powerful. Who knows Valar would intervened directly! Or perhaps they'd have to wait for another age to see Sauron's fall.
And the rest Mortals would have died. Only immortals would come to a tragic end

Gandalf's mission was to defeat Sauron. If Sauron gets the Ring, he's not completing that mission. The Free People could never defeat Sauron militarily and once he has the Ring Sauron will make himself and his minions all the more powerful. Where I'm at in Fellowship Gandalf says the Nine are nothing to how dangerous they'd be if Sauron got the Ring. Imagine that - the Witch-king twice or three times stronger. He'd probably make entire armies shrivel up in fear by himself without even having to fight.

Hence why i asked if Gandalf would abandon Middle-earth to its fate. What else could he do? And you might remember that a lot of Elves were already abandoning Men and Dwarves to death and slavery by this point. Elrond and Galadriel were nice enough to stick around with their kindred but if Sauron got the Ring and thus they could no longer use their rings to preserve their homes, they might pack up and move West as well.

There's a saying, it says :"A life of sin ends in sorrow sooner or later." So, Sauron's sinful life had to come to an end. Sooner or later. This sooner would have been if Isildur had destroyed the Ring, and 'later' became when Frodo destroyed it. No, I don't think either of them would have run away. Gandalf a was Maia-a demi-god. It was his responsibility to do what he did. He would not have just fled. Valar would have another plan for that, but nothing of that happened so it's hard to say "what would have happened?"

Likely, yes. Except only the elves can go to the West. For those left, ME becomes the DPRK.

I think his mission was a bit more nuanced. It was not to defeat Sauron (ie. by himself if he could), but to enhance and encourage the resistance of all free peoples aiming at Sauron's defeat.

In any event, if Sauron gets the Ring, or even if it is lost once again, Gandalf will be in the battles of final defence - still doing all he can in HIS mission to encourage the defense against the darkness - so if all is lost he will die there.

When he died the first time, he didn't "choose" to come back (much though he may have desired it), he was re-embodied and SENT back. If/when he dies a second time - who knows what the plan of Eru will lead to? If Eru sends him back, he will come back, if He doesn't, he won't.

p.s. Even the elves may find they can't flee into the west - if Sauron's victory has destroyed the havens and the ships. Maybe some will get away that way - but I think many would find themselves stuck in ME.

On another tangent, which is so tempting...
 

But would Sauron do? He conquered Middle Earth. Now what? Aman?

I think that really was beyond his reach. For one thing, his servants had a wide-ranging fear of the Sea. Even if they'd been forced by him to board ships though, the Straight Way to the West would have been closed.

Yeah, but, like, don't you get bored sitting on a Dark Throne in the Land of Mordor every single day? And don't you get a bit arrogant with all of ME at your command? Like, how was he planning to spend the rest of eternity? Retire and do... what? Go ice-fishing in the Forochel? :p

I'm not saying he might not in his arrogance have tried to eventually have "broadened his horizons", but he would have been unsuccessful. I think for a very long time merely having all Elves, Men, and Dwarves under his thumb would have been like a perpetual birthday. ;)

I've had a notion knocking around in my head for the past two days that Tolkien in his letters addressed this somewhere, that if Sauron had triumphed at the end of the Third Age that he would not have been left alone to rule over Middle earth forever, that either the Valar or Eru himself would have intervened to topple him in one way or another.

However, I have thumbed through my copy of Letters and it has eluded me...so maybe I made it up.

That sounds like something that was discussed around here. Possibly you're remembering this thread. I can't find anything in the letters either about his being put down by the Valar.

As I said earlier, ME becomes the DPRK. Sauron may have ambitions for Aman, but he can't get there without the Valars' permission, so that's moot. He'd likely be content to oppress and enslave people in his own domain, regardless:

"If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever."

"The old civilizations claimed that they were founded on love or justice. Ours is founded upon hatred. In our world there will be no emotions except fear, rage, triumph, and self-abasement. Everything else we shall destroy — everything."

"Never again will you be capable of ordinary human feeling. Everything will be dead inside you. Never again will you be capable of love, or friendship, or joy of living, or laughter, or curiosity, or courage, or integrity. You will be hollow. We shall squeeze you empty and then we shall fill you with ourselves."

All three quotes were said by O'Brien in 1984. I can imagine Sauron telling someone the same things- especially the last one.

There is no way Sauron could take his fight to Aman and hope to succeed. The Númenórean host his armies could not stand against barely set foot on Aman before they were dealt with. Only Melkor at the peak of his powers could hope to accomplish such a thing, as once upon a time he competed with them all.

Had Sauron reclaimed the One the Elves would be between a rock and a hard place because all their work with the Three would be laid bare. The West is Elven-home. All other species would still be there. Unfortunately for Men, the Dúnedain are few and are not much of a threat as they were in the 2nd Age. Not only that, Sauron has Dúnedain in his armies. They did not just breed out ruling over lesser men as the sons and grandsons of Castamir did.

Some people might give up, other might not. Guerilla warfare would perhaps ensue sort of like the Rangers of the North did with Orcs and other threats to Eriador. I also am not sure if Galadriel would turn tail. She seems to be the one to have been there to fight to long fight against Sauron and I'd think she'd be there.

Sauron would rule Middle Earth for thousands of years. There would probably be some resistance and eventually someone heroic enough would be either inspire men or do something amazing enough by him or herself to defeat Sauron. The key to this is that Eru would not allow Sauron to win forever. As Frodo says evil cannot conquer forever. Sadly this could literally mean thousands upon thousands of years with Sauron as a dictator.

Sauron did not need to gain the ring to win the war. His armies were too grand for anyone to stand up against him. At first Gandalf and the Wise did not realise just how strong Sauron had become until Denethor revealed what he had seen in the Palantir.

While I have no doubt that many of the Free peoples would try to go guerilla for a while, I'm not quite so sure they would "eventually" succeed. Sauron would just be too overpowered for me to believe that, given enough time (and he is technically immortal) a re-powered Sauron would not eventually squash down ALL non divine resistance. His Nazgul would be more terrifying than ever (and their ability to basically cause men's hearts to fail would probably be turned up to 11). Plus unlike previous times they can now FLY so it will be a LOT harder to evade/escape them.

Galadriel is a similar situation (as it Elrond). However much they are willing to stand their ground, they just wouldn't have the might. If Sauron has the One ring, they don't DARE use thiers, for ANY reason. They could try and hide in the forests and play Guerrilla from there, but I imagine that his time with Saruman in his employ has let Sauron see his methods, and the idea of "cut/burn down the forests where the elves are would probably be on his strategies pretty early. (he'd want the remaning ents dealt with eventually anyway, and no forests basically knocks them out.

No Gandalf was not as powerful.

Saruman was "higher in Valinórean stature than the others" and was not stronger than Sauron either. In the text of The Istari it is said that Saruman "was ensnared by that dark spirit, mightier than he."

The Valar used emissaries [the Istari] to deal with the Sauron problem, not to overwhelm the Children of Ilúvatar with their prowess, but to unite them. Basically what Gandalf did. They would be peers of Sauron, Maiar on a lesser level, and "they were forbidden to match his power with power" [RotK, Appendix B].

Tolkien himself also states Olorin and Curumo are of lesser Maiar than Sauron.
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...11&postcount=1

The only hope they had to match his power was with the One. I don't think anyone except maybe Galadriel could stand up to Sauron. I can't recall exactly but I think i remember her getting a lot of hype in The Silmarillion... Might be misremembering though. She was never a favorite.

There is also Letter, #246, in which Tolkien discusses the possibility of someone else besting Sauron in a one-on-one contest for the Ring.

So from that only Gandalf was likely to really have had the power to keep the Ring from Sauron permanently. Keep in mind that even though Sauron's original "stature" as created in the angelic hierarchy was greater than that of the Istari, he had also spent his spirit with the ages-long effort of dominating other wills and commanding his slaves. So Gandalf could indeed have stood a chance against him. And that is without the power of the One, for that power would have been under the ultimate command of the victor between Sauron and the claimant.

Tolkien was talking about the forces of the West, but I think that we can be confident that Saruman too would have had the strength to vanquish Sauron. Interestingly that out of all the other Elves etc especially Elrond has the best chance of victory.

Well, Saruman too was guilty of using his innate power as a Maia for domination, though for a far lesser time than Sauron. I think his pride too would have been a handicap ti him. It could be notable that through the palantíri Sauron was victorious over Saruman, giving him commands which were obeyed.

Of course the Ring isn't exactly Sauron himself. The palantir was a direct link to Sauron unmasked - his will and his mind and Saruman could not conquer such strength. The Ring though obviously does not have nearly the same level of overt power or else Frodo would have been driven mad long ago.

I just think that Saruman using his innate power and his will to dominate others (which is a factor for mastering it according to Galadriel) could potentially claim it for himself. Note also that it is specifically Gandal's Maia nature that Tolkien attributes to his ability to take the Ring and challenge Sauron. Saruman thus fulfills some of the know criteria for mastring the One and using it.

I cannot help but think Saruman's losing his "mental battle" with Sauron via the palantir is due to how similar they are in mind. In Fellowship I believe it is Gandalf who says that even against the might of the One Ring you can at least temporarily fend it off if you have a noble character. Maybe it was a similar situation with the Stones. So Saruman, even if he is weaker than Sauron, might not have been "ensnared" by him if he had righteous cause for using the Stone. As it was though, he was essentially a lesser Sauron and thus naturally his mind was more easily swayed and dominated by his "superior self" if you get me.

They key point is as you said he had been using his power for a far smaller time and had yet to spend most of his power. He lost to Sauron in the battle with the Palantir, but in this battle he would have the ring strengthening him. We know he was mightier than Gandalf so stands to reason he should have been capable of what Gandalf would.

Sauron would have be about to destroy everything beyond redress for the Valar to intervene again. The two times that they did they, 1st destroyed Utumo and moved continents and all kinds of crazyness happend in the process. Then the 2nd time they destroyed Angband and sank Beleriand. They were afraid to intervene hince the Istari and Glorfindel. So it would have to be really hopeless for them to do anything much more then what they had already done.

It is entirely possible that the impact Sauron's domination of the Younger Children would have exactly qualified as destroying everything beyond redress...personally I think that is the case, although I don't see them embarking on another War of Wrath.

I'm not sure what I see them doing, but I think they would have to do something.

It depends on what you mean by "destroy." Sauron was interested in commanding everything, not burning it to the ground. Forests might all be used to fuel the fires of Mordor and other beautiful pieces of nature ravaged for the sake of his needs but consider the fate of everyone in the East who apparently served him. They were all living fine and dandy under his rule for long stretches of time.

Sauron just isn't the mass slaughter type. Recall what is said of him iNnThe Silmarillion in the Second Age - that EVERY creature upon Middle-earth save Elves marched in his host. If nothing else, Sauron is content to let things live and maybe even thrive so long as they live and thrive under his rule.

Depressing idea
 

I think the truly sad answer to the question is that to the minds of many (Tolkien and myself included) Sauron did win and is now very much in the process of laying waste to the Earth in the pursuit of selfishness and self-aggrandizement at the expense of the living world and all of its peoples. The fact that the Dark Lord is working this destruction through his lesser avatars doesn't undo the completeness of his victory.

That having been said, there are also many (Tolkien and myself included) who believe that where there is life, there is always hope.

Well, Gandalf made the point that Sauron was but an "emissary" of evil, and that other evils may come. The seed planted by Morgoth and carried on by Sauron could not be utterly eradicated.

The point of Gandalf's struggle though was to do all that he could, with what he had at that time to destroy Sauron. And the evil remaining afterward would simply have to be dealt with by Aragorn and his descendants. If Sauron had either regained the Ring or conquered the West militarily, he would have been able to greatly prolong his time in Middle-earth, and do much more damage to the lands and the spirit of those opposed to him. Taking Sauron out at least gave the West more of a chance to stand against evil, without having an incarnate, immortal representative of it personally leading its advancement.

In this context destroy does not necessarily mean slaughter.

I envision that the corruption and degradation that Sauron's domination would inflict on the souls of humanity would be destruction enough to cause the Valar to do something.

Correct. It's Tolkien's way of allowing for both free will and Iluvatar not allowing a permanent triumphing of evil.

But the eventual defeat of Sauron is actually presaged in Eru's chding of Melkor in the Aunulindale when Melkor tried to take over and dominate the Music of the Ainur
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Even if Sauron somehow conquered the northwest of middle earth he still wouldnt control the whole of Arda: he still has to invade the new continents that arose after the downfall of numenor (the Americas I presume), Afrika and the Far East. But even if he achieved total domination, I don't think the Valar would intervene. Somehow, somewhere (maybe after a little "divine Inspiration") there would be an uprising against his rule ...
But IF the Valar decided to attack him I don't think that war would be as catastrophic and world-changing as the earlier wars between the Valar and Melkor (the primeval conflicts, the battle of powers after the awakening of the elves and finally the war of wrath). These conflicts were so destructive because of the power involved and the power that was needed to dislodge Melkor. If the Valar invaded a Sauron-dominated Middle-earth the ensuing conflict would be far less supernatural and more like a conventional human war: an army of maybe 50 000 Vanyar and Noldor led by a dozen Maia officers would suffice and the ensuing destruction would be local (some destroyed towns and a burned forest or two).

Well he already controlled Harad and Rhûn which were more or less the Middle-earth equivalents of Africa and Asia. As for the "Americas" or New Lands, well if they have any relationship to the original Eastern Continent there may not have been any people there to rule at all at that point.
"In the East beyond the tumbled lands there is a silent beach and a dark and empty sea."
So Sauron may not have been too fussed about that I imagine.
The threat may have been Sauron's love of the "scorched earth policy" coupled with the descent into Morgothian nihilism which we are told had come to afflict him as time wore on - maybe he would have elected to destroy as much of his own lands and slaves as possible before defeat became unavoidable.
On the other hand, if the whole of Middle-earth was under his sway, it's possible that the kinds of armies he could have mustered would have been so vast and so deeply under the shadow that a host of the Valar would be forced to slay thousands upon thousands of them, and maybe it was that kind of near-genocide that the Valar would have needed to try to avoid.

It's an odd question though, isn't it? I mean, surely someone would have intervened? But that's why I think the events of The Lord of the Rings could almost be considered to be something like "damage control" on the part of the Wise.

A final point which comes to mind is the possibility that the nihilistic "lust for destruction" would have eventually torn Sauron's empire apart - people may have risen up against him or his servants may have turned on each other. At the end of the day, though, I suppose it all still hinges on the Ring being destroyed.

I think it's very likely that Sauron would try to apply some sort of "scorched earth" policy in the event of an invasion. But he is far, far less powerful than Morgoth. He can't change or damage the geography like his master, he simply is not powerful enough. All the damage that he could inflict would be localized, superficial and relatively temporary (polluted rivers, destroyed forests and the like, maybe attempted genocide). I also think it's very likely that the actual military engagements in the event of an invasion would be rather limited. I guess that the morale of his troops would not be very high (at least after the first crushing defeat): how would his human/orc armies react to the splendor and magnificence of an obviously technically superior highly motivated, experienced and trained high-elven army? His armies deserted him before (after ar-pharazon invaded his empire, although that may have been a ruse ...) and it may happen again. Think of it like the Middle-Earth version of the 2003 invasion of Iraq: his armies put up some incompetent token resistance at first and then either flee or mass surrender, Sauron panicks and decides to hide in the East in some cave but a Maiar task force finds him and drags him out by his beard like Saddam Hussein. The whole conflict may only last a few weeks at most.

I would not be too high on the Elves' abilities to deal with Sauron. Remember the 2nd Age. He seemed to basically dominate them. He actually almost overran them had not the Dúnedain saved the day in 1700 S.A. [see Tale of Years, and The History of Galadriel and Celeborn] The only people who were clearly superior to his forces were the Dúnedain. Not even the Nazgûl could stand against them. Even late in the 3rd Age the Witch-king was wary of some of the diminished Dúnedain such as the Steward Boromir, "Boromir was a great captain, and even the Witch-king feared him" [The Stewards]. Sauron himself new he could not hope to beat them with force so he supplicated before the last King of Númenor. I believe it's made clear that Sauron feared the Númenóreans and did not wish to engage them. When Ar-Pharazôn comes note the reaction of Sauron.

My point is that the Dúnedain, at least from my perspective, were a greater force and threat to Sauron than even the High-elves.

Well, Glorfindel did remark that "Sauron can torture and destroy the very hills," so he could probably damage Middle-earth to a reasonable degree, but I think the issue isn't the damage to the landscape but rather the large numbers of Men the Valar would risk having to slay were they to invade Middle-earth. They weren't willing to do it to the Númenóreans. It's true to say that Morgoth had a fair number of Men in his army during the War of Wrath but it seems to be that the population Sauron could draw upon (and indeed would have to given that he didn't have dragons and the like) would be enormous.
It probably depends whether Sauron had recovered the Ring or not. If he had he might have been able to drive his armies to the limit. It's worth noting that the "flight" of his armies at Umbar in the Second Age was deliberate: Sauron wanted to be captured. So presumably he could have made his armies fight the Númenóreans had he so desired (although they seemingly would have lost).

But that weren't valinorean Elves! You could make the same Argument that a valinorean invasion against Morgoth must fail because he defeated the Noldor! The defeated Elves of the second Age were small populations of second and third generation exiled Noldor and Sindar. You can't compare the two, and I'm fairly certain that a valinorean high-elven army consisting of Noldor and Vanyar (a lot of them veterans from the war of wrath and other old elves that are almost as powerful as some maiar), equipped with high-quality armor and weapons that were manufactured by the Noldor in Valinor under Aules supervision, and who are led and supported by at least a dozen powerful Maia officers would smash anything that Sauron could muster, even if he had the Ring!

That leaves the moral question: the protectors of the children of iluvatar would have to kill a lot of the children of iluvatar in order to save the children of iluvatar ... messy, and quite the moral dilemma. However, that only applies if Sauron can maintain loyalty, discipline and unit cohesion, and I don't think that's very likely. His orcs will scatter and be hunted down and his human forces will probably mass surrender. That will leave only a small devoted core of a few thousand Uruks, Olog-hai and some fanatical black Numenoreans who will feel obligated to fight for religious reasons, but that will be it.

Any compunction about killing Sauron's servants would not be present.
In the First Age War of Wrath, Orcs were nearly exterminated seemingly, and that is not shown in anything but a positive light.

Yes, the forces of Morgoth during the war of wrath consisted mostly of orcs (and some trolls, dragons, wolves, balrogs) but relatively few humans. No moral problem here, at least from the perspective of Valinor. The moral dilemma of a hypothetical valinorean invasion of a Middle-earth that's ruled by Sauron is that the majority of his armies consists of humans, so the "liberating" elven armies would have to slaughter hundreds of thousands of the people they are supposed to free. That's what Zigur means. But: in my opinion the valinorean army would never have to face that dilemma because most of Saurons human forces would simply mass surrender.