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Wasn't Aragorn already thinking about going to Gondor before the hobbits were captured? My understanding was that he was either going to do that or help Frodo to Mordor so there was still a very good chance that the Fellowship would have split.
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Aragorn indeed preferred to go to Minas Tirith, but he also had said he would follow where Frodo went. If an impetus had not occurred to force Frodo into leaving surrepetitiously, Aragorn would have gone with him all the way to Mordor; what a disaster THAT could have been!
And the more I think about Aragorn's position in the Fellowship and the decisions he had to make, the less I believe that he is a 'perfect' character. I once thought he was a goody-goody, but I do not feel that way anymore. Aragorn had a hard choice to make right at this particular juncture at Parth Galen, and he could have made a very wrong decision had Frodo not left the way he did. Of course, there are other ways Frodo could have been forced to leave. He might have been pursued by Orcs and put on the Ring to escape them, then seeing his amazing vision at Amon Hen, being held tortuously between the two forces while he wore it, finally taking it off at Gandalf's urging ("Take off the Ring, fool!") and realizing all by himself that it had a terrible power and could not be brought to Minas Tirith. But it is less likely, for he would not have the shining example of Boromir to illustrate the absolute peril he would put himself and the Quest in if he were to take that road.
Also, I think Faramir would not have held out as long against the Orcs as Boromir did; Merry and Pippin would have been at their mercy much more completely. But here we do have the impetus to split the Fellowship; someone has to go after M and P before Saruman gets his hands on them. The question would be who and whether Frodo would leave of his own accord if he knew of M and P's capture...there are so many variables! It is hard to say exactly what would have happened!
Also whoever brought up the point of switching Boromir and Faramir around and putting Frodo and Sam at Boromir's mercy at Henneth Annun reflects one more of the thoughts I had had on this subject; that would be truly frightening! Would Boromir have taken the Ring outright for himself, or would he have brought it to Denethor? Denethor believed the latter, but who knows? Great discussion! Thanks! Not lame at all! I really enjoy this kind of thing, but it spins my head in circles! [img]smilies/eek.gif[/img]
Cheers,
Lyta