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Had Isildur not failed to throw the Ring into Mount Doom when he had the chance, then both the Ring and Sauron would have been destroyed there and then.
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Quite true! Isildur's weakness at that critical point certainly didn't have a lot of good come out of it. Of course, we get a great story out of it, but for the characters in it Isildur's folly must have seemed, well inconvenient at the very least. In view of that I wonder why Elrond and Círdan were not more forceful at the time. Don't bother answering, I'll search for a thread on that!
Thorin and Co. being captured by Orcs is a great example. Without the finding of the One Ring, Sauron would have stomped on the west in the War of the Ring (and the name of the war would have been different!). The Dwarves got off pretty lightly from that whole thing. All that they had to sacrifice were their ponies (none of whom had names) and their baggage. Maybe Sacrifice could be another Tolkien Theme, Groundskeeper Willy?
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However, there is another wildcard, of course--the relationship between Gollum and Frodo. It was certainly not predestined that Frodo would extend mercy to Gollum and, in so doing, enable him to become an instrument of providence for the saving of Middle-earth.
So, at least in Frodo's case the answer is mixed. Frodo's failure at Mount Doom was predestined, but it was free choice that determined Gollum's role and hence the fate of Middle-earth.
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Great point about Frodo's example. It seems that in the end his tendency to mercy was more important than his resilience towards the evil of the Ring. And the quest succeeded all because he met Gollum, one day in the middle of whichever month in the Emyn Muil. A chance meeting, as we say in Middle-Earth!