I find this quote of Mithadan's from earlier to be about the crux of it. "Alternatively, maybe Smaug, inspired by the chaos of war, would have acted on his own, seeking more treasure or just out of malice." I don't think Sauron could control Smaug. I don't think Gandalf was worried about Smaug being recruited by Sauron, I think he was worried about Smaug joining in on the bad guys' side due to his capricious and chaotically evil nature.
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