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there's nothing to support it apart from a wish
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That means it's wrong. Fallacies are frowned upon for a very good reason.
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No, that doesn't make it wrong! That just means we don't know if it's true or not. I believe this is open for speculation. In the Bible, God had a chosen people which He led out of Egypt. Maybe in a similar way, the Hobbits were Eru's chosen people. Of course that's just speculation, but that doesn't make it wrong.
Arwen