I'm not so sure that Smaug surviving the Hobbit would have made much of a difference...I think the only reason he was able to wreck Esgaroth so much was because only a couple archers stayed to defend it...whereas Minas Tirith would have probably put up more of a fight...if Sauron could convince Smaug to fly so far from his hoard...
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"One is one and all alone and evermore shall be it so."
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