One of Smaug's most potent weapons was fear. The men of Esgaroth were terrified of him. After all if he destroyed Dale then Esgaroth would be no problem. Powerful, yes. Even Glaurung was killed by a single, determined man. All it would take if Bard had missed would have been a determined and courageous opponent, although this may have taken a while.
However, if Smaug had not been killed then there would not have been the battle of 5 armies and the elves of Mirkwood would not have been on as good terms with the men and Dain would not rule under the mountain. Eriador would have been overrun with orcs too. Smaug would have only been another threat on a large list. With the ring Sauron would have controlled Smaug. As the Necromancer? Probably not.
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-Halbarad to Aragorn, 'The Passing of the Grey Company' Book V, Return of the King."A little people, but of great worth are the Shire-folk. Little do they know of our long labour for the safekeeping of their borders, and yet I grudge it not"
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