If Smaug had lived things would likely have turned out very differently. If Bard misses his shot and dies at Esgaroth the dragon almost surely kills Thorin and company, including Bilbo. The Ring would either have fallen to Smaug or been lost again, at least for a short while until the Deceiver tracks it down. Smaug, fully active again for the first time in ages, likely repairs his armor, removing his one glaring weakness.
Yes, things would have turned out much differently if there was an axis of Smaug in the north, Saruman in the center, and Sauron in the east. Much differently indeed.
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