But we're forgetting one important factor here. Bard was TOLD about the dragon's weak spot by the thrush, he didn't spot it on his own. And realistically speaking, even for Elves, night vision is worse than day vision, so unless Smaug was flying overhead in broad daylight, which he wouldn't do, it would have been very difficult for an Elven archer to shoot him at precisely the exact spot. Smaug was intelligent, he wouldn't have flown in broad daylight because that would be too much visiblity, and, it's a lot less frightening. I don't know about you, but I would find a dragon far more intimidating at night than during the day, since my vision would be hampered. So unless Roac, or the thrush, started running some sort of messenger service, advertising Smaug's weakness to all of Eriador, it would have been quite difficult to take him down.
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But Melkor also was there, and he came to the house of Fëanor, and there he slew Finwë King of the Noldor before his doors, and spilled the first blood in the Blessed Realm; for Finwë alone had not fled from the horror of the Dark.
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