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You can't - that's the point. If you could know definitely one way or the other it would have a too deterministic effect on your freedom of belief.
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But the point is that we cannot say that every action that turned out for the good of ME was a direct intervention of Eru. Gollum fell and that an intervention of Eru. Frodo had pity for Gollum and that was an intervention of Eru.
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No, it wasn't his right to act as he saw fit - certainly he had the ability to do as he saw fit, but being able to do something is not the same thing as having the right to do it.
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It is interesting but as I see it, the more Melkor acted as he saw fit, the more he wanted to make Arda his (in a way) in the End, he was making a greater Arda for Ilúvatar. So in the moment of his actions were not "good" but in the end, it turned out to be the best.